Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 5/19(NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 19

National League

St. Louis at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Westbrook: 12-6 TSR as an underdog
Kershaw: 26-8 TSR when total is 7 or less


InterLeague

Cincinnati at NY Yankees, 1:05 ET
Bailey: 7-0 Over after giving up 1 or less ER last outing
Nova: Yankees 50-18 in day games

NY Mets at Toronto, 1:05 ET
Batista: Mets 16-3 Over in road games
Morrow: TOR 11-2 after scoring 10+ runs

Oakland at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Ross: OAK 0-10 at San Francisco
Vogelsong: 16-3 Under at home when the total is 7.5 or less

Pittsburgh at Detroit, 4:05 ET
Burnett: 5-23 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Smyly: DET 6-12 off a win

Miami at Cleveland, 4:05 ET
Sanchez: 14-3 Under as road favorite
Gomez: 11-4 TSR as underdog of +150 or less

Minnesota at Milwaukee, 4:10 ET
Pavano: MIN 10-2 Under in day games
Gallardo: MIL 40-8 as home favorite of -150 or more

Seattle at Colorado, 4:10 ET
Vargas: 11-6 TSR as an underdog of +125 to +175
Freidrich: COL 12-33 in May

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 4:10 ET
Delgado: ATL 48-25 in May
Cobb: TB 8-0 Under at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

Texas at Houston, 7:15 ET
Holland: TEX 17-2 as a road favorite of -150 to -175
Harrell: HOU 17-56 as an underdog of +150 or more

Baltimore at Washington, 7:15 ET
Hammel: BAL 17-8 off a win
Detwiler: WASH 9-21 revenging loss as home favorite

Boston at Philadelphia, 7:15 ET
Lester: BOS 20-10 Over as favorite
Blanton: PHIL 4-10 after BB wins by 2 runs or less

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, 7:15 ET
Danks: CWS 10-3 Under vs. Cubs
Dempster: 44-19 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Arizona at Kansas City, 7:15 ET
Kennedy: ARZ 13-4 Over when the total is 7 to 8.5
Chen: KC 0-9 at home off loss by 2 runs or less

LA Angels at San Diego, 10:05 ET
Haren: 1-7 TSR this season
Stultz: SD 5-13 after scoring 2 runs or less

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 19

WC Semifinals, Game Three (Spurs Lead, 2-0)
San Antonio at LA Clippers, 3:35 ET ABC
San Antonio: 16-2 ATS after scoring 105+ BB games
LA Clippers: 20-8 Under at home vs. San Antonio

WC Semifinals, Game Four (Oklahoma City Leads, 2-1)
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET TNT
Oklahoma City: 4-0 ATS playing 2nd road game in 2 days
LA Lakers: 1-6 ATS on Saturday

[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, May 19

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What bettors need to know: Saturday's NBA playoff action
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-1, 188.5)

Oklahoma City leads series 2-1

THE STORY: The Los Angeles Lakers will not be swept out of the Western Conference's second round - but they will undoubtedly need to be better in Saturday's Game 3 if they want to extend the Oklahoma City Thunder beyond five games. The Lakers had all they could handle from the young Thunder, needing a 41-for-42 performance from the free-throw line to trim the deficit in the best-of-seven to 2-1. Kobe Bryant led the way with 36 points, but may be at a disadvantage as the teams deal with a quick turnaround.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City performed admirably on defense but couldn't prevent the Lakers' parade to the free-throw line, a development that ultimately proved to be the Thunder's undoing. They were able to keep Lakers center Andrew Bynum at bay - he shot just 2 for 13 from the floor - but had no answer for Bryant, who scored 14 points in the final quarter while knocking down all 18 of his free-throw attempts. Kevin Durant led the way with 31 points and had a good look at the game tying shot, but misfired from 30 feet as the Thunder fell to 6-1 in the postseason.

ABOUT THE LAKERS: Los Angeles displayed an aggression it simply didn't show at the Chesapeake Energy Center, taking the ball to the hoop at every opportunity. The Lakers rode that approach to victory, making their first 28 free-throw attempts and knocking down six more in crunch time to fend off the Thunder. How the Lakers - and Bryant in particular - bounce back for Game 4 less than 24 hours after an emotionally draining home victory will go a long way in determining whether the series returns to Oklahoma City tied 2-2, or with the Thunder a win away from a return trip to the conference finals.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Lakers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win.
* Under is 5-2 in Thunder last seven games as underdogs.
* Over is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games playing on zero rest.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Thunder went 14-6 in the regular-season on the second day of a back-to-back, while the Lakers posted a 10-9 mark.

2. Games 3 and 4 mark the first time the Lakers will play postseason games on consecutive days since May 22-23, 1999 against the San Antonio Spurs.

3. The Thunder were no slouches themselves from the foul line in Game 3, converting 26 of 28 attempts in defeat.


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[Udog]

Preakness Stakes odds: Best long shot bets on the board

The general consensus among racing pundits is that the more entries in the Preakness the weaker the top horses.

A couple of days ago as many as 16 horses were strong considerations for the race. Now there are just 11 in the field, some scared off by Bodemeister’s speed, and others who just don’t feel they can come back in two weeks off the Kentucky Derby.

Since 1984 only three horses have won the Preakness that didn’t race in the Derby. That would mean that I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause or Went the Day Well have the best chance on Saturday.

While Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another figure to take most of the money at the windows, here are a few horses that can steal this race at a price.

Creative Cause (+600); Jockey: Joel Rosario

You’ll most likely get around 8-1 when the race goes off on this one. Creative Cause finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby, the first time he’d ever missed the board. Trainer Mike Harrington’s charge has raced against the best and never lost by more than a length until the Run for the Roses.

Frankly, he was due for a stinker, and if fifth in the Derby is to be considered a bad race, then there’s still plenty left in the tank for the Cause who rallied home eight wide.

Take away the traffic that Creative Cause endured in the race and the stretch drive would have been much easier. Creative Cause has also beaten Bodemeister and has posted a Beyer figure of 102. That type of race could put him in the winner’s circle here.

Teeth of the Dog (+1500); Jockey: Joe Bravo

Went off a 53-1 in his last race, taking third in the Wood Memorial. When Bravo asked the Dog to run he did and he never stopped. His final furlong was a pedestrian 13 seconds but if he gets off to a better start and the top guns fail to fire this one could surprise. Teeth of the Dog beat Went the Day Well in February as the 2-1 favorite.

Cozzetti (+3000); Jockey: Jose Lezcano

A decided longshot, Cozzetti is the son of Cozzene who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1985. While there isn’t too much to hang your hat on with this one he is trained by Dale Romans who won this race last year with Shackleford and finished second two years ago with First Dude. Obviously Romans knows a little about this race.

Romans decided against starting Dullahan in the Preakness and will enter him in the Belmont. So, he’s giving Cozzetti a shot here.

The negatives: It took Cozzetti three tries to break his maiden and he’s winless in four starts since. His Beyer figures stink and Bodemeister walloped him in the Arkansas Derby.



Preakness Stakes handicapping: Three betting trends of note

Trends are a valuable part of any handicapping and that’s especially true in horse racing. To help you uncover the winner of the Preakness, here are three valuable Preakness Stakes trends to consider:

Kentucky Derby winner

Unless something changes drastically between now and post time, the Derby winner won’t be favored in the Preakness — a reasonably uncommon occurrence. More interesting than that, though, is the consideration of whether I’ll Have Another can head to the Belmont with a chance to end the Triple Crown drought.

Over the last 31 years we have seen 10 Derby winners take the Preakness. That’s just under a third of all races — roughly the same percentage of races won by the favorites. In the last seven years we have seen just one — Big Brown in 2008. Animal Kingdom came as close as any last year, but didn’t quite have enough ground left at the end when he was gaining on Shackleford.

While I’ll Have Another likely won’t be the post-time favorite most Derby winners are. In other words, the Derby favorite doesn’t really seem to have a particular advantage in this race over the medium term.

Horses that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby

On the surface it might seem tempting to pick a horse that didn’t run in the Derby to win the Preakness. After all, they are well rested while Derby entrants are just two weeks removed from by far the toughest race of their careers.

The truth is that betting on the fresher horses is usually a terrible idea. In the last 28 years we have seen just three fresh horses win the Preakness. Looking at the last 15 editions of the Preakness we have seen 91 new entrants. Only three of those have won — just over three percent. The other 12 winners have come from among the 77 horses who were also in the Derby. That’s a rate of 16 percent. That means that it is five times more likely for a Derby entrant to win the Preakness than it is for a fresh horse to do so.

Things get even more bleak when you consider the last two fresh horses to win the Preakness — Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. The former was a highly-touted, wildly-impressive colt who could very well have been favored had he gone in the Derby. The latter was the best filly of her generation — and several before and since. So, they were both exceptional horses.

Most fresh entrants in the Preakness are a long way from exceptional. The group this year is weak even compared to most recent groups. The chances of one of these horses breaking through and winning clearly exists, but it is tiny.

On the lead

Bodemeister is going to try to win wire-to-wire and the rest of the horses are going to try to chase him down — with I’ll Have Another likely leading that charge reasonably close to the leader. The lead shouldn’t be a terribly tough place to be in this race — the Preakness is shorter than the Derby and the set-up of the turns at Pimlico makes it tougher for horses to gain momentum by going wide.

Historically, it hasn't been a good strategy to be on the lead. In the last 52 years only five horses have wired the field. In the last 15 years, Rachel Alexandra is the only horse to be on the lead at the half-mile mark that went on to win.

That seems o be particularly bad news for the favorite here. Shackleford was second last year and close to the lead the whole way before taking over on the final turn. Others have essentially contested the early pace before winning as well.

There is one other major factor to consider — the types of horses that typically lead. Most often the front-runners are horses that have speed as their only trick. They know they aren’t likely good enough to win, so they hope they can get away up front and hold on to steal the win. It’s a low percentage strategy, but often the best bet the horses have.

Bodemeister is not your typical speed horse. On top of his exceptional speed he has serious stamina bred into him as well. He did fade late in the Derby, but not compared to the other speed horses — Trinniberg pushed Bodemeister early on and wound up 30 lengths back at the wire. Most speed horses are on a suicide mission and they know it, but Bodemeister is different.