The Bum's NBA Championship Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
The Lakers look to take advantage of an OKC team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. LA is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

MONDAY, MAY 14

Game 509-510: Philadelphia at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 120.718; Boston 129.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 4; 174
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-4); Under

Game 507-508: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.389; Oklahoma City 126.053
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City 7 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+7 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 14

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LA LAKERS (45 - 28) at OKLAHOMA CITY (51 - 19) - 5/14/2012, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 30-42 ATS (-16.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in road games this season.
LA LAKERS are 28-41 ATS (-17.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 139-115 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-7 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 10-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (39 - 34) at BOSTON (44 - 29) - 5/14/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 87-72 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 82-104 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 43-72 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Monday, May 14

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BOSTON
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
LA Lakers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games


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NBA

Monday, May 14

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What bettors need to know: Monday's NBA playoff action
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Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-4, 173.5)

THE STORY: The Boston Celtics escaped in the opener and are looking to take a 2-0 lead when they host the Philadelphia 76ers in Monday’s Eastern Conference second-round series. Boston trailed most of Game 1 and had to overcome a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to record a 92-91 victory. The 76ers would like to tie the series before it shifts to Philadelphia for Games 3 and 4 after winning both home games against Boston in the regular season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE 76ERS: Philadelphia led most of Game 1 before being outplayed over the last 11 minutes. The fourth quarter meltdown included costly turnovers and poor shot selection and the outcome qualifies as a major missed opportunity for the underdog 76ers. Coach Doug Collins promised there won’t be a carryover effect. “If you’ve watched us all season, we’re not going to drop our heads,” Collins said. “We live to come back and fight just as hard in Game 2, at least as long as I’m the coach.” Andre Iguodala had a team-best 19 points but stellar Sixth Man Lou Williams struggled with just nine points on 4-of-11 shooting.

ABOUT THE CELTICS: Forward Kevin Garnett had 29 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1 to follow up a superb effort (28 points, 14 rebounds and five blocked shots) in the decisive contest in the Atlanta series. Garnett twice scored 20 points in three regular-season matchups against Philadelphia. Forward Paul Pierce struggled with just 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting as he continues to battle through a knee injury. “It really doesn’t bother me when I walk around or I jump straight up,” Pierce said. “It’s more if I turn the knee in a certain position – it sort of re-aggravates it.”

TRENDS:
- 76ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
- Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in 76ers' last five overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo notched his eighth career triple-double in the opener with 13 points, 12 rebounds and 17 assists.

2. Philadelphia center Spencer Hawes is averaging 15.4 points and 9.8 rebounds over the last five postseason games.

3. Boston made just two of 18 3-point shots in the opener with guard Ray Allen (2 of 7) the only player to connect from behind the arc.



Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7.5, 191.5)

SERIES ODDS: Lakers +379, Thunder -442

THE STORY: The Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder have already engaged in off-court drama as they prepare for the opener of their Western Conference semifinal series Monday night at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. The teams took vastly different paths to reach the second round, with the Lakers outlasting the plucky Denver Nuggets in seven games and the Thunder enjoying plenty of rest after ousting the defending-champion Dallas Mavericks in four straight.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE LAKERS: Leave it to the guy named World Peace to lob the first grenade in what should be a tension-filled series. Metta World Peace says he doesn't plan to shake hands with Thunder guard James Harden, who was felled by a vicious World Peace elbow in their previous regular-season encounter. The incident led to a lengthy suspension for World Peace, who was only eligible to return for Game 7 against the Nuggets. "I don't shake substitutes' hands," he said following the Lakers' series-clinching victory, while also suggesting that Harden may have embellished the contact.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City may have been young and wide-eyed in last year's postseason, but the team looks to be all business this time around. Led by three-time NBA scoring champion Kevin Durant and sensational point guard Russell Westbrook, the Thunder rolled past the Mavericks in a rematch of last year's Western Conference finals. It was the first series sweep for the franchise since 1996, when the Seattle Supersonics easily handled the defending-champion Houston Rockets. Monday's opener will mark eight days since Oklahoma City last took the court.

TRENDS:
- Lakers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Oklahoma City.
- The over is 5-0 in Thunder last five games as a favorite.
- The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Thunder C Kendrick Perkins (hip) participated in a pre-practice shooting session Saturday but remains a game-time decision for the opener.

2. Oklahoma City won two of three regular-season meetings. The Lakers won their most recent encounter, escaping with a 114-106 overtime win April 22.

3. Durant averages 25.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 17 career games against the Lakers.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 14

76ers @ Celtics (1-0)-- Garnett had 29 points, 11 boards, as Boston got thru Game 1 with home court edge intact. Home side won all four series games this season, with Celtics winning Game 1, when both teams shot exactly 43.9% from the floor; Celtics' last three games have been decided by total of 5 points. Philly lost by 24-1 points in their only visits here this year. Holliday (3-13 from floor, 0-4 behind arc) will have to make some jumpshots, or Boston won't even have to guard him.

Lakers @ Thunder-- Last time these teams met, Ron Artest gave James Harden a concussion with a cheapshot elbow; he got suspended seven games, but got back just in time to help save the Lakers' bacon against the Nuggets Saturday. Quick turnaround for LA squad that snuck by Denver at home Saturday night; Lakers lost 100-85 in their only visit to Oklahoma City this season. Teams split pair of games at Staples, with both winning sides in those games 1-point underdogs. Thunder's last game was nine days ago; will they be rested or rusty?

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, May 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +4.5 500

Boston - Over 173.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers +7.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 191.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs-Clippers Outlook

May 14, 2012

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

Series Price: San Antonio -2500, Los Angeles +1500

Series Format: San Antonio, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Tuesday, May 15 (9:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 2 - Thursday, May 17 (9:30 PM EST, ESPN)
Game 3 - Saturday, May 19 (3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Game 4 - Sunday, May 20 (10:30 PM, TNT)
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 22 (TBD)
Game 6* - Friday, May 25 (TBD)
Game 7* - Sunday, May 27 (TBD)


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
54-16 45-21-4 41-6 30-5 24-11 103.6 95.9
44-29 36-35-2 26-10 18-19 36-36-1 96.9 94.6



2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/09/12 Los Angeles 120 (+4.5) @ San Antonio 108 OVER 193
02/18/12 San Antonio 103 (+3) @ Los Angeles 100 (OT) OVER 192
12/28/11 Los Angeles 90 @ San Antonio 115 (-4.5) OVER 198



Skinny: The Spurs are sitting pretty after barely breaking a sweat in their first round series sweep of the Jazz. Top-seeded San Antonio returns to the court following a week of rest to entertain a Clippers' squad that needed seven games to eliminate Memphis, the same team that bounced the Spurs in the quarterfinals last season. Los Angeles is a heavy underdog in this round after allowing Memphis to creep back in its first round series following a 3-1 Grizzlies' deficit.

For San Antonio, it's been a simple formula recently. Count on the big three of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan to set the table, while allowing the depth to play its role in rolling off a 14 consecutive victories. The Spurs won three of four games against the Jazz by double-digits, as Utah made a late run to cover Game 4 as 7 ½-point underdogs in an 87-81 home defeat. In fact, the Spurs hit the 'under' in all four contests after going on a 7-0-1 run to the 'over' to finish the regular season.

The Clippers turned to their bench in the decisive Game 7, as Kenyon Martin, Nick Young, and Eric Bledsoe combined to score 32 points in Sunday's 82-72 triumph. Los Angeles cashed as 7 ½-point road 'dogs, while Memphis was limited to 34 points in the second half. It didn't help the Grizzlies that they failed to drill a three-pointer in 13 attempts, as the 'under' hit in four of the final five games of this series.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The Spurs captured two of three regular season meetings, as only one of those contests was decided by single-digits. San Antonio dominated Los Angeles in the second game of the season for both clubs, 115-90 at AT&T Center on December 28. Gregg Popovich's team easily cashed as 4 ½-point 'chalk' by jumping on the Clippers in a 38-17 third quarter onslaught. Blake Griffin was the lone Clipper to show up with 28 points and nine rebounds, while all five San Antonio starters poured in double-figures.

The Clippers blew a golden opportunity for revenge by literally throwing the game away in a 103-100 overtime defeat to the Spurs at Staples Center on February 18. This matinee affair looked to be going L.A.'s way, but Chris Paul's errant pass in the final seconds of regulation landed in the hands of Gary Neal, who sank a three-pointer to force overtime. San Antonio came through in the extra session to cash as three-point 'dogs, while extending its winning streak at the time to 10 games.

Parker scored a game-high 30 points in that February rally at Los Angeles, but the Spurs' point guard sat out the final meeting with the Clippers on March 9 with a sore thigh. The Clips took advantage of the All-Star's absence by posting a convincing 120-108 shootout victory at San Antonio as 4 ½-point underdogs. Mo Williams turned into the key cog for the Clippers' attack by hitting seven of nine attempts from downtown, while putting up 33 points off the bench. Paul led the way with 36 points for L.A., as the Clips knocked down 14 treys in the win.

Betting Notes: The Spurs owned the top ATS record in the league this season, while producing an incredible 30-5 SU and 26-8-1 ATS record at the AT&T Center as a home favorite. San Antonio did lose twice outright as double-digit home 'chalk' during the season to the Kings and Lakers, but the Spurs dominated in that role with an 8-2-1 ATS ledger. Playing as a road favorite has also been an automatic play for the Spurs, who have won 13 straight games when laying points on the highway (9-2-2 ATS).

The Clippers began the season at 0-4 SU/ATS in the road underdog situation, but went on a strong 5-0-1 ATS run from February through mid-March. Although Los Angeles cashed in Game 7 at Memphis, the Clips own a 2-5 SU/ATS record the last seven games when receiving points away from Southern California. The Clippers finished 4-1-1 ATS as home underdogs, including outright victories over the Thunder twice, Heat, and Mavericks.

Series Outlook: It's very difficult to get on the tracks with the speed and veracity of this San Antonio express, especially with the Spurs covering at an insane rate. The Clippers stepped up defensively against an up-and-down Grizzlies' squad in the last round, but Vinny Del Negro's club has its work cut out for them to advance to its first ever conference finals. The Spurs will move forward in five games to their first West Finals since 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Rested San Antonio Spurs Host LA Clippers

The San Antonio Spurs will see their abbreviated vacation come to an end when they host the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night.

Let’s first quickly look back at an exciting Sunday. It was a disappointing Game 7 effort from the Memphis Grizzlies, losing 82-72 as 7½-point home favorites to the Clippers. Power forward Blake Griffin was limited to eight points over 28 minutes with his knee injury, but the team found a way to get it done.

Monday has the Los Angeles Lakers (+7½) at Oklahoma City and facing arguably the best homecourt advantage in the NBA. The total is 191½ for this Game 1 Western Conference semi. This opened at 6½ and has moved in the Thunder’s favor.

This is a classic case of ‘rest versus rust’ with Oklahoma City on a 10-day layoff after sweeping defending champ Dallas. Los Angeles needed seven games to beat Denver and just finished that series on Saturday.

The Lakers’ Steve Blake has been stealing minutes from Ramon Sessions late in games. Neither can stay in front of Russell Westbrook, and Kobe Bryant might be switched on him in spots. Metta World Peace came back from his suspension last game and will guard Kevin Durant.

Boston (-4½) is hosting Philadelphia in Game 2 of their series. The total is 173 after the Celtics came away with a 92-91 comeback win in the opener. The 76ers covered the 5½-points and are 3-1 ATS against Boston this year.

Jumping ahead to Tuesday, Miami looks to go up 2-0 on Indiana beginning at 7:00 p.m. (ET) on TNT. The Heat are 7½-point favorites (total 185) despite Chris Bosh being out indefinitely with an abdominal injury. Bosh has been playing center and former starter Joel Anthony will fill in for him in addition to Ronny Turiaf.

Note the Heat are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in these playoffs and 8-1 ATS in the last nine in South Florida.

The late game on Tuesday is the Clippers at San Antonio at 9:30 p.m. (ET). The pointspread is the Spurs -11, which is very big for a playoff game. The total is 190½.

The series price is the Clippers +1500 and the Spurs -3000. San Antonio went 2-1 SU and ATS against L.A. this year (the ‘over’ 3-0) and is another team that is well rested after dispatching Utah in a sweep last Monday.

The Clippers' win this season was with Tony Parker out of the lineup. The matchup of Parker vs. Chris Paul could determine this series. Don Best NBA analyst Monte Scates points out that San Antonio is 12-1-1 ATS in its last 14, going over 100 points in 13 of them.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami goes for 2-0 series lead without Bosh

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 3 INDIANA PACERS

at No. 2 MIAMI HEAT


Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 2 - Miami leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7½, Total: 185½

Miami was fortunate to win Game 1 over Indiana (95-86), but now it will attempt to take a 2-0 series lead without PF Chris Bosh.

The Heat’s most valuable big man will likely miss the rest of this series after suffering an abdominal strain while dunking the ball in Game 1. That should allow more freedom for Indiana’s talented frontcourt to shine. Despite Bosh getting hurt, Miami still won the rebounding battle (45-38) and had more points in the paint (52) than the Pacers (40). Will the Heat be able to cover another large spread in Game 2? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. ******* Dave is 10-5-1 ATS (4-2 Best Bets) since Tuesday and ******* Scott is 7-4-1 ATS (5-2-1 Best Bets) over the past six days.

The Heat defense is giving up just 83.3 PPG (41.4% FG) in the 2012 playoffs, and has allowed 100 points just once in the past 16 games dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 21-15 (18-18 ATS) on the road this season, winning seven of eight SU away from home. The Pacers have also played hard-nosed defense in the playoffs, giving up only 85.7 PPG on 40.0% FG. But in the past three seasons, Miami has been very successful against Indiana, going 10-2 (8-4 ATS) in 12 meetings with the Pacers.

Both C Roy Hibbert (17 points, 11 rebounds) and PF David West (17 points, 12 rebounds) posted double-doubles on the interior in Sunday’s loss, but SF Danny Granger had a miserable 1-of-10 shooting day. This was particularly shocking based on how well Granger played in the final three games of the Orlando series, averaging 24.0 PPG on 46.4% FG. But Granger wasn’t the only Pacers player to have a subpar series opener. The starting backcourt of SG George Hill and SG Paul George combined for just 16 points on 5-of-15 FG (3-of-9 threes), four assists and five turnovers. PG Darren Collison provided a spark off the bench with 10 points and six assists, but committed three turnovers with a minus-8 rating in his 23 minutes of action.

League MVP SF LeBron James led all players with 32 points and 15 rebounds (six offensive) in Game 1, and will once again be counted on to attack the glass with Bosh on the sidelines. The Heat’s backcourt of Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers isn’t likely to shoot a combined 8-for-26 (30.8%) like on Sunday. After all, the pair combined for 32.8 PPG on 48% FG in the first round series versus the Knicks. PF Udonis Haslem will likely get some of Bosh’s minutes, and must be more productive than he was in Game 1 with a meager two points (0-for-4 FG) and five assists in 23 minutes. The same can be said for SF Shane Battier, who was also scoreless (0-for-3 FG) with just three rebounds in 24 minutes on Sunday. Battier was a big contributor in Wednesday’s Game 5 win over New York with nine points, three rebounds and four assists in 28 minutes.

[StarDust Bum]

Well-rested Spurs host Clippers on Tuesday


NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 5 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

at No. 1 SAN ANTONIO SPURS


Western Conference Semifinals
Game 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -11½, Total: 190½

After eight days of rest, the Spurs finally get back on the court when they host the Clippers in Tuesday night’s Game 1.

Los Angeles won a tough seven-game series by taking out Memphis on the road in Sunday’s Game 7, but PF Blake Griffin was limited to just 28 minutes because of a sprained knee. Griffin had an outstanding season series versus the Spurs this season with 21.7 PPG and 12.7 RPG, so his potential absence (he’s a game-time decision) will be felt. There are no such injury concerns for the well-rested Spurs who had little trouble dispatching Utah in four games. Can the Spurs cover the enormous spread on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. ******* Dave is 10-5-1 ATS (4-2 Best Bets) since Tuesday and ******* Scott is 7-4-1 ATS (5-2-1 Best Bets) over the past six days.

Los Angeles will start this series with just one day of rest, but it has been strong in this scenario with a 26-14 record (22-16-2 ATS). The Clippers have also been a decent road team at 18-19 (18-16-3 ATS), getting outscored by just 0.3 PPG for the season. However, San Antonio is an outstanding 30-5 (25-8-2 ATS) at home this season, outscoring these visitors by 12.5 PPG (105.9 to 93.4 PPG). The Spurs are also 12-1 (11-2 ATS) with at least two days rest this season. These clubs met three times during the regular season. The Spurs won the first meeting handily at home, 115-90, and then clinched the season series with a narrow 103-100 win in Los Angeles in February. The Clippers avoided the sweep in the final installment on March 9, crushing the Spurs 120-108 in San Antonio.

Griffin has averaged 18.0 PPG on 53% FG in the 2012 playoffs, but his rebounding numbers of 6.4 RPG tailed off significantly from his 10.9 RPG during the regular season. PG Chris Paul put together a huge series against Memphis, averaging 20.4 PPG, 7.1 APG, 5.7 RPG and 2.7 SPG. His numbers were even better against the Spurs this season, as he put up 22.3 PPG, 8.7 APG and 2.7 SPG. His matchup with San Antonio’s star PG Tony Parker will be fun to watch. But the Clippers know they won’t win this series solely because of two players. G Mo Williams had a subpar series (9.7 PPG, 38% FG) compared to his regular season (13.2 PPG, 43% FG), but his best game of the year occurred on March 9 in San Antonio when he scored 33 points on 12-of-19 FG (7-of-9 threes). Williams has been dealing with a hand injury, as two of his fingers on his shooting hand were taped together. SF Caron Butler has also a hand injury, but it’s on his non-shooting hand. His numbers were lackluster in the Memphis series (9.3 PPG on 35% FG), but he was solid against the Spurs with 13.0 PPG on 45% FG in the three meetings. PF Reggie Evans continues to provide muscle down low, averaging a hefty 8.7 RPG in just 22.3 MPG during the playoffs. SG Nick Young has cooled off since hurting his thumb early in the Memphis series, but shot the ball pretty well on the road during that series going 13-for-28 FG (8-for-11 threes).

The Spurs are led by Parker, who didn’t play when the teams last met. But he did plenty of damage in the other two meetings with 22.0 PPG (55% FG) and 9.5 APG. Parker also dominated the Jazz in the playoffs with 21.0 PPG (50% FG) and 6.5 APG. SG Manu Ginobili shots lights-out against the Clippers this season at 16.0 PPG (57% FG, 9-of-16 threes) and also dished out 5.0 APG. Although he started out the playoffs ice-cold in the first three games (7-of-26 FG, 0-for-8 threes), he exploded in Game 4 of the Utah series with 17 points on 6-of-11 FG (3-of-6 threes). C Tim Duncan shot just 42.5% FG against the Clippers this season, but still managed to put up 12.7 PPG and 9.7 RPG. He’s had a solid playoffs so far too with 14.3 PPG (47% FG), 8.8 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.8 BPG. With Griffin hurting, the game plan will be to feed Duncan in the post early and often. Besides the Big Three, San Antonio’s role players are thriving. SG Stephen Jackson has 10.0 PPG (53% threes) in the playoffs, SG Danny Green has 8.5 PPG and 4.0 RPG and PG Gary Neal is shooting 59% FG (56% threes) with 8.3 PPG in just 13.0 MPG. The Spurs shot 48.1% FG (41% threes) against Utah and piled up 102.3 PPG.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, May 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +7 500
Miami - Under 186 500

L.A. Clippers - 9:30 PM ET San Antonio -11 500
San Antonio - Under 191 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder and Sixers In Focus On Wednesday

Is the “old guard” about to change in the NBA?

We’ll begin to have a better idea after the conclusion of Wednesday night’s games featuring the Lakers and Celtics, both of whom look to be in trouble in their respective conference semifinals.

For the Lake Show, however, the immediate situation seems more desperate against Oklahoma City.

A check of the Don Best odds screens notes that the emerging Thunder have been posted as early 7½-point favorites in Wednesday’s Game 2 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, with the total mostly at 195½ at the various Las Vegas wagering outlets. Tip-off time will be 9:35 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by TNT.

Of course, following Ok City’s one-sided 119-90 romp in Game 1, some Laker backers are harkening to parallels from the infamous “Memorial Day Massacre” at Boston in Game 1 of the 1985 Finals, when the Celtics roared to a 148-114 blowout.

Los Angeles recovered to win that series in six games, but the only similarities between those Kareem/Magic Lakers and the current edition look to be uniform colors.

Too often, the current Laker edition ceases to compete, which has now happened in two straight playoff losses on the road at Denver and vs. the Thunder, when L.A. was outscored by a combined 46 points. And neither of those losses were as close as the final scores indicated.

Matchups vs. Ok City look problematic for the Lakers, who have lost and failed to cover (and not been close) in three of four losses to the Thunder this season. Only in a disjointed late-season encounter at Staples Center, when the Lakers made a late rally from a double-digit deficit in the game in which Metta World “Ron Artest” Peace KO’d James Harden with a stray (and well-aimed) elbow, have the Lakers not been completely outclassed by the Thunder.

Fundamental problems were hard to camouflage for Mike Brown’s crew in Game 1, as the Lakers continually failed to impede dribble penetration by whichever Thunder weapon (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook or Harden) wanted to attack the paint.

On the stop end, the Thunder also present the Lakers with problems, as Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka are not overmatched against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Meanwhile, Thabo Sefolosha reinforced his credentials as one of the best defenders on Kobe Bryant by limiting the Lakers star to a very mortal 7-for-18 FG shooting performance, as Kobe was routinely pushed out a couple of steps further from the bucket when receiving passes on the wing.

After struggling to wins in the first two games of the first-round playoff set vs. Dallas, Ok City is now on a real roll, winning and covering three in a row. We hardly envision the well-defined series dynamics altering too much for Game 2.

Meanwhile, the aging Celtics are finding Philadelphia a tough match in their Eastern semifinal. The series is now tied at 1-1 after the Sixers gutted out an 82-81 win Monday night at TD Garden.

Action now switches to the Wells Fargo Center for Game 3, with the tip-off on Wednesday night slated for 7:05 p.m. (EDT). TNT will also be providing the TV coverage for this playoff clash.

A check of the Don Best odds screen notes that the Sixers have been posted as narrow 2-point favorites, with the total at a low (but deserving) 172½ at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Note that Philly blew out Boston in a pair of regular-season meetings at Wells Fargo Center, rolling 103-71 on March 7 and then by a 99-86 count on March 23. The Celtics were mostly at full-strength for those games, with only Ray Allen among the “big four” sidelined for either game (he missed the second clash on March 23).

Boston’s ongoing problems against the Sixers are easy to identify, as Doc Rivers’ squad has trouble coping with the Sixers’ superior athleticism. Although Philly has rarely been able to detonate its transition game in the first two games of this series, it can set a brisk pace in which the halfcourt-loving Celtics are uncomfortable.

Boston’s issues in the first two games of this series have been on the offensive end, particularly cold shooting from Paul Pierce (just 5-of-20 from the floor and 10.5 ppg over the first two games). Ray Allen has also struggled as has Rajon Rondo, the latter held to just eight points in Monday’s Game 2 loss and just 10-for-27 from the floor in the first two games.

Among the key Celtic weapons, only Kevin Garnett (22 ppg the first two of this series) has been performing at or near peak efficiency.

The Sixers’ chances are enhanced if PG Jrue Holiday steps up as he did in Game 2 when scoring 18 points. Swingman Andre Iguodala continues to be a difficult matchup for the Celtics as well, scoring 16 ppg and dishing out 12 assists in the first two games.

The Sixers have been playing ‘em close lately, with an unprecedented three consecutive playoff games decided by one point. Also note ‘unders’ in five of six Philly playoff games dating back to Game 3 of the Chicago series

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Playoff Tips

May 15, 2012

The Wednesday NBA playoff card showcases two very different semifinals series, as far as a competitive standpoint. The Lakers failed to show up against the rested Thunder as Oklahoma City blew out Los Angeles in the series opener. Before we look at that Western Conference matchup, the night begins in Philadelphia with the 76ers looking to pull off another upset through a surprising playoff run.

Celtics at 76ers - 7:05 PM EST (TNT)

These two Atlantic Division rivals have split a pair of close games in Boston, with both clubs squandering early leads in losses. The Sixers turned the trick in Game 2 by picking up an 82-81 road triumph as 4 ½-point underdogs, heading home tied at 1-1 just like they did in the opening round against the top-seeded Bulls.

Philadelphia fell behind 9-0 in the opening minutes of Game 2, but managed to trail by just two points at halftime. The Sixers responded with a strong 21-11 third quarter run, as the Celtics went nearly five minutes without a point. In fact, Boston converted two field goals in the final 9:48 of the quarter, while Philadelphia closed the period on a 14-2 run.

The controversy surrounding Monday's contest involved an illegal screen whistled on Kevin Garnett with Boston trailing, 85-82 in the final 10 seconds of regulation. The Sixers knocked down several free throws to ice the win, while Garnett and Ray Allen each drilled three-pointers to make the score look closer than it was. Boston attempted only nine foul shots in the defeat (making seven), as Philadelphia held the rebounding advantage, 47-36.

Doug Collins' club returns to the Wells Fargo Center owning a perfect 3-0 record in the playoffs, while covering two of three times in the opening round against the Bulls. The Sixers dismantled the Celtics in two home meetings this season, although Boston played with no rest in both contests. Philadelphia has put together a 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU mark against Boston in the City of Brotherly Love since the start of last season, as both victories this season came by 32 and 13 points.

The Celtics are 7-15 SU and 12-10 ATS as a road underdog this season, but that record needs to be tightened up as far as this situation is concerned. Boston compiled a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS record as an away 'dog with no rest, as Doc Rivers' squad will have one day off heading into Game 3. Basically, when the C's are rested as a road 'dog, this club owns a 10-3 ATS mark.

Lakers at Thunder - 9:35 PM EST (TNT)

Oklahoma City sure didn't forget about blowing an 18-point lead at Staples Center on April 22 as the Thunder lost a double-overtime shootout to the Lakers. The Thunder exacted revenge in Monday's 119-90 rout of Los Angeles, the first matchup between the Western Conference rivals since Metta World Peace knocked out James Harden with an elbow three weeks ago.

The Lakers showed their age and fatigue after getting pushed to seven games by the Nuggets in the opening round of the postseason. Mike Brown's club trailed by 15 points at halftime in Game 1 at Oklahoma City, while the Thunder put the contest away with a 39-24 onslaught in the third quarter. The big three of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Harden took over as expected by combining for 69 points, as none of the three young stars played more than 29 minutes.

The last two meetings between these teams have finished 'over' the total, including the easy victory 'over' 192 ½ in Game 1. This series has been owned by the younger legs of Oklahoma City, which is now 3-1 this season against Los Angeles, including two double-digit victories at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Lakers haven't been able to put together consistent offensive efforts when they travel to OKC, scoring 95 points or less in each of the last five visits to the Sooner State.

The Thunder improved to 3-6 ATS the last nine games as a home favorite off a win on Monday, but OKC is just 1-4 ATS the previous five home contests. The Lakers sailed 'over' the total in six of eight opportunities as a road underdog off a loss this season, while posting a 1-5 ATS record the last six games when receiving points on the highway.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 16, 2012


Home Teams are 4-2
Favorites are 4-2 straight up
Favorites are 3-3 against the spread
The 'over/under' is 3-3

Sat May 12, 2012

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Philadelphia Boston (-5.5) 92-91 Underdog Over 171

Sun May 13, 2012
Indiana Miami (-8.5) 95-86 Favorite Under 187

Mon May 14, 2012
Philadelphia (+4.5, +180) Boston 82-81 Underdog Under 175
L.A. Lakers Oklahoma City (-8) 119-90 Favorite Over 193

Tue May 15, 2012
Indiana (+6.5, +275) Miami 78-75 Underdog Over 192.5
L.A. Clippers San Antonio (-11.5) 108-92 Favorite Under 187

Wed May 16, 2012
Boston Philadelphia
L.A. Lakers Oklahoma City

Thu May 17, 2012
Miami Indiana
L.A. Clippers San Antonio

Fri May 18, 2012
Boston Philadelphia
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers

Sat May 19, 2012
San Antonio L.A. Clippers
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers

Sun May 20, 2012
Miami Indiana
San Antonio L.A. Clippers

Mon May 21, 2012
Philadelphia Boston
L.A. Lakers Oklahoma City

Tue May 22, 2012
Indiana Miami
L.A. Clippers San Antonio

Wed May 23, 2012
Boston Philadelphia
Oklahoma City L.A. Lakers

Fri May 25, 2012
San Antonio L.A. Clippers

Sun May 27, 2012
L.A. Clippers San Antonio
L.A. Lakers Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers try to bounce back Wednesday at OKC


NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Semifinals
Game 2 - Oklahoma City leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -8, Total: 195½

The Thunder demolished the Lakers in Game 1, and will look to repeat the feat on Wednesday night.

Oklahoma City led 98-68 after three quarters and cruised to a 119-90 win. The Lakers, which shot better from three-point land (44%) than from inside the arc (43%), were certainly tired. They were playing this game less than 48 hours after finishing off a grueling, seven-game series with Denver. Can the Lakers find their legs and bounce back in Game 2? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. ******* Dave is 11-6-1 ATS (5-3 Best Bets) in the past eight days.

The Thunder had 13 steals and four turnovers in Game 1, while the Lakers had just one steal and 15 miscues. Offensively, L.A. wasn’t horrible on Monday. SG Kobe Bryant and C Andrew Bynum each scored 20 points and the team tallied at least 21 points in each quarter. Bryant (7-of-18 FG) didn’t have a great game though with just three rebounds, two assists and three turnovers. Bynum made 7-of-12 shots and 6-of-6 free throws, while grabbing a game-high 14 rebounds. But no other Lakers player performed up to his capabilities. PF Pau Gasol had a pedestrian 10 points, seven rebounds and game-worst minus-29 rating. SF Metta World Peace scored 12 points, but had just two rebounds in his 32 minutes of action. PG Ramon Sessions was downright horrible with two points on 1-of-7 shooting and just three assists in 26 minutes. And after shining with 19 points (5-of-6 threes) in Game 7 versus Denver, backup PG Steve Blake had zero points (0-for-1 FG) and a minus-11 rating on Monday, but he did tally a team-high four assists.

Oklahoma City is 29-7 (18-18 ATS) at home and 28-11 (20-19 ATS) with one day of rest. L.A. had no answer for either PG Russell Westbrook (27 points, nine assists, seven rebounds) or SF Kevin Durant (25 points, eight rebounds, four assists), who both posted ratings of +27 in Game 1. No Thunder player logged 30 minutes and seven of their players tallied a rating of +13 or better. The team shot a blistering 53% FG, 41% threes and 83% from the line. SG James Harden pumped in 17 points in just 24 minutes off the bench despite missing all four of his three-point tries. No other Thunder player had more than eight points, but nine others made at least one field goal. The big-men duo of C Kendrick Perkins and PF Serge Ibaka combined for a meager 10 points and five rebounds in 37 minutes, but each blocked two shots. This duo had combined for 21.0 RPG and 6.3 BPG during the regular season versus the Lakers. PG Derek Fisher was the one Thunder player with a bad shooting night (2-for-8 FG), but he averaged 11.0 PPG on 14-of-21 FG (5-of-9 threes) in the final three games of the first-round series versus Dallas.

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics-76ers shifts to Philly for Game 3

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS

at No. 8 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS


Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -2, Total: 172½

After each team beat their opponent by one point to start the series, the Celtics and 76ers travel to Philadelphia for Wednesday’s Game 3.

Monday’s Game 2 was all about defense, as the Celtics trailed 57-49 entering the fourth quarter before erasing that eight-point deficit. But the Sixers, who blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 1, were able to hold on by making 6-of-6 free throws down the stretch to win 82-81. The series now shifts to Philadelphia where Boston had won seven straight times before losing its past three meetings, including both games this year in blowout fashion (103-71 and 99-86). Which team will take the series lead on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. ******* Dave is 11-6-1 ATS (5-3 Best Bets) in the past eight days.

Philadelphia was outrebounded 47-36 in Game 2, but had more offensive boards (11) than Boston (6). Many of the other stats were very even, as both teams had six blocks, the Celtics had one more turnover (17-16) and one more steal (11-10), and both teams shot poorly (PHI: 40.8% FG, BOS: 41.8% FG). But the 76ers amassed just 13 personal fouls for the entire game as the Celtics attempted just nine free throws.

Boston has played stingy defense in the 2012 playoffs (83.2 PPG on 40.7% FG), but the C’s are just 16-20 (18-18 ATS) on the road this season. They are an underwhelming 16-13 (13-16 ATS) following an SU loss this season. After making just 2-of-18 threes in Game 1, Boston knocked down 8-of-18 (44.4%) from downtown on Monday, which was a better rate than its shooting from inside the arc (41.0%). PF Kevin Garnett is having a huge series with 22.0 PPG and 11.5 RPG, and although PG Rajon Rondo hasn’t shot well (10.5 PPG on 37% FG), his other numbers have been incredible: 15.0 APG, 9.5 RPG and 3.0 SPG. After committing seven turnovers in Game 1, Rondo had just one miscue on Monday. SF Paul Pierce still appears to be affected by his sprained knee, as he’s averaging just 10.5 PPG on 25% FG in this series. But he has contributed in other areas with 5.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, four steals and three blocks. SG Avery Bradley aggravated his left shoulder injury in Game 2, but was able to return to the game. He posted a team-best +18 rating, despite a second straight game with just one assist and two turnovers. PF Brandon Bass has had a rough series with 11.0 PPG on 9-of-24 FG (37.5%) and just 4.5 RPG. SG Ray Allen led Boston with 17 points in Game 2, and also pitched in four rebounds and three steals.

The 76ers are a strong home team at 22-14 (19-17 ATS), and have allowed a meager 85.1 PPG on 41.2% FG at Wells Fargo Center this season. And in their past six games, they have surrendered just 80.7 PPG on 38.4% FG. Philadelphia is also a solid 25-18 (23-20 ATS) with one day of rest this season, but is an average team following an SU win (20-19 SU and ATS).

76ers PG Jrue Holiday struggled in Game 1 (8 points, 3-of-13 FG), but he poured in a game-high 18 points in Game 2, knocking down 4-of-6 threes. But the team’s other point guard, Lou Williams, had another poor shooting performance at 3-of-13 FG, making him 7-for-24 (29%) in the series so far. Williams, who was the team’s top scorer during the regular season (14.9 PPG), was able to grab seven rebounds though and post a +17 rating. Another reserve, PF Lavoy Allen, had a strong game with 10 points, eight rebounds, two steals, two blocks and a game-high +21 rating. After playing only 15.8 MPG in the first round, Allen has logged 25.0 MPG against Boston, averaging 11.0 PPG (64.3% FG) and 7.0 RPG. In terms of the frontcourt, SF Andre Iguodala finished with 13 points, seven assists and six rebounds, while C Spencer Hawes scored eight points with 10 boards. Starting PF Elton Brand continues to be a non-factor with just 5.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG in 16.5 MPG during this series. His neck injury has certainly contributed to his lackluster performance.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, May 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -2 500

Philadelphia - Over 172.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -8 500

Oklahoma City - Over 195.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs On A Roll Heading To Game 2 With LA Clippers

April 11, 2012. Why is this date so significant?

This date represents the last time the San Antonio Spurs actually lost a basketball game. Gregg Popovich’s crew has compiled 15 straight wins and covered the spread 13 times during the current win streak, all while averaging 111 points per game. They not only win, they do so by convincing margins with 15.66 points their average margin of victory in the 15 victories.

I feel bad for the Los Angeles Clippers who battled through injuries to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies and earn their first playoff series victory in recent memory.

San Antonio’s 108-92 victory in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals was not a surprise to anyone who has been remotely paying attention to what’s been going in San Antonio all season. With Tony Parker struggling (7 points on 1-of-9 shooting), Tim Duncan had no trouble carrying the load for the Spurs by scoring 26 points while grabbing 10 rebounds. Duncan looked especially light on his feet, and he can thank his head coach for closely monitoring his minutes during the grueling, lock-out shortened regular season.

Additional bad news for the Clippers had to be the play of Manu Ginobili who also contributed 22 points, by far his best effort of the playoffs and most since a 23-point night vs. Utah back in early April. Ginobili has battled injuries all season long, but seemed very comfortable and found his rhythm offensively in Game 1.

Although happy with the shots he was finding vs. the Spurs defense, Chris Paul has to score (6 points, 3-of-13 shooting) if the Clippers have any chance in this series. Los Angeles' outside shooters settled too often for jump shots and must be more aggressive by attacking the rim in Game 2. Paul, Randy Foye, Caron Butler and Mo Williams did not even attempt a free throw in Game 1.

Just as I did in Game 1, I will once again be looking at the “over” in Game 2. The oddsmakers did make a slight adjustment from the Game 1 total of 191 by setting the Game 2 total at 194. San Antonio is listed as an 11-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

No Chris Bosh was a big problem for the Heat in their Game 2 loss at home vs. the Indiana Pacers. Indiana money line bettors cashed tickets as the Pacers stole home court from the favored Heat.

LeBron James (28 points, 9 rebounds) logged heavy minutes and did everything he could, including locking down Indiana’s leading scorer Danny Granger, who only managed 11 points in 34+ minutes of floor time. Dwyane Wade chipped in with 24 points but no other Heat player scored more than five.

The line has been jumping back and forth for Game 3 which shifts to Indianapolis Thursday with a 7:00 p.m. (ET) tip on ESPN. Miami is currently favored by one point with the total set at 182.