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Banged-up Clippers host Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday


NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 4 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at No. 5 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS


Western Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 6 – Los Angeles leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Friday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -1½, Total: 179

The Clippers are in position to win their first playoff series since 2006, but their superstars will both be game-time decisions for Friday’s Game 6 versus Memphis.

Both PF Blake Griffin (sprained knee) and PG Chris Paul (hip flexor, finger) were injured in Game 5, but both returned to the game and expect to play on Friday night. Memphis jumped out to big cushion and led by 24 at one point, but the Clippers were able to cut the lead to six in an eventual 92-80 loss. Los Angeles won both games at Staples Center in this series and is 11-2 SU (8-5 ATS) at home versus Memphis over the past six seasons. Can the banged-up Clippers close out the series on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. The ******* staff finished 12-3 ATS on Thursday night, and ******* Brian is now 6-3 ATS (3-0 Best Bets) over the past three nights.

For the season, Memphis is now 15-20 SU (14-20-1 ATS) on the road, averaging a mere 91.3 PPG on 43.5% FG away from home. The Grizzlies two big men both played their best games of the series in Game 5 as C Marc Gasol scored 23 points with seven rebounds and PF Zach Randolph pitched in with 19 points and 10 rebounds. Memphis had a huge points-in-the-paint advantage Wednesday (48-26) to make up for an 0-for-6 clip from three-point range.

SF Rudy Gay had his lowest scoring output in Game 5 (14 points, 6-of-14 FG), but he still leads the Grizzlies with 20.2 PPG in this series. However, Gay shot poorly in both games in L.A. this series, making just 13-of-38 shots (34%). Speaking of poor shooting, SG O.J. Mayo (10.8 PPG in series) continues to struggle putting the ball in the basket. After averaging 18.5 PPG in Games 1-2, he has scored a total of 17 points over his past three games, making just 3-of-20 FG (1-for-8 threes). PG Mike Conley has been strong throughout the series though, averaging 15.8 PPG (48.1% FG), 7.2 APG and just 2.0 TOPG. His best game was the last time the series was in L.A., scoring 25 points (10-for-15 FG) with eight assists and seven rebounds in the Game 4 defeat.

L.A. is 26-9 SU (18-17 ATS) at home this season, scoring 98.8 PPG on 46.7% FG. The Clippers are actually shooting with great accuracy from the field (47.1% FG) and from three-point range (38.5%) in this series, but continue to hurt themselves from the foul line (65.7%). L.A. had outshot Memphis 50% FG to 44% FG through the first four games of the series, but the Grizzlies were the more accurate shooters on Wednesday at 44.4% FG compared to a meager 37.1% FG for the Clippers.

Paul has been the series MVP with 22.6 PPG (47% FG), 7.8 APG and 5.2 RPG, and was still able to score 19 points with four steals in Game 5 despite his injury. Paul had 25.5 PPG, 9.0 APG and 6.5 RPG in the two home games this series. Griffin has scored at least 15 points in each game this series, averaging 20.2 PPG on 57% FG, which his higher than his 55% free-throw rate (23-of-42 FT). His best game came the last time these teams played in L.A. in Game 4, with Griffin scoring 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting. SF Caron Butler injured his non-shooting hand in Game 1, and has made just 9-of-27 shots since the injury. But he does have 11.0 PPG over the past two games, including a series-high 14 points in the Game 4 home win. SG Nick Young has cooled down considerably since his 15.0 PPG on 10-of-16 FG (6-of-7 threes) in Games 1-2. In the past three contests, Young has a total of 12 points on 4-of-13 FG (2-for-7 threes), logging just 16.3 MPG. PF Reggie Evans continues to help big time on the interior with 8.4 RPG in the series, and backup PG Mo Williams has provided instant offense with 11.4 PPG in just 23.0 MPG in the series. He pumped in 20 points in Game 5, but shot just 8-for-21 from the floor (3-of-9 threes).

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Friday 11th

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 9:00 PM ET Memphis -2 500

L.A. Clippers - Under 179 500

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Lakers try to hold off Nuggets in Game 7 Saturday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at No. 6 DENVER NUGGETS


Western Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Saturday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -6, Total: 196½

The Nuggets look to ride momentum of two straight victories when they try to beat the Lakers on their home floor in a decisive Game 7 on Saturday night.

Denver has really claimed the interior during its two victories, outscoring the Lakers 108-76 in the paint. The Nuggets starting frontcourt outscored the star-studded L.A. frontcourt 35 to 24 in Game 6, posting a combined +57 rating compared to the -51 combined rating for Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. The Nuggets are just 5-16 (8-12-1 ATS) in their past 21 road games versus the Lakers, but are 19-17 (24-12 ATS) away from home this season. Which team will capture this series? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. The ******* staff finished 12-3 ATS on Thursday night, and ******* Brian is 6-3 ATS (3-0 Best Bets) since Tuesday.

The star of Thursday’s 113-96 blowout was PG Ty Lawson who torched the Lakers with 32 points (13-of-18 FG, 5-of-6 threes), six assists and five rebounds. This was quite an improvement from his Game 5 performance in L.A. when he was held to nine points on 4-of-12 FG. His backcourt mate, SG Arron Afflalo, has been off the mark the entire series, but has played much better the past two games. In the Game 5 win in L.A., he pumped in 19 points on 8-of-19 FG. Then on Thursday, Afflalo posted a +26 rating, scoring just six points (3-of-5 FG), but adding seven assists and five rebounds. SF Danilo Gallinari had a game-high rating of +27 in Game 6, contributing 12 points and seven assists. Although Gallinari has 15.2 PPG in the series, his percentages are awful: 38.8% FG, 15.0% threes. Rookie PF Kenneth Faried continues to look impressive, as his double-double on Thursday puts him at 11.2 PPG and 10.0 RPG for the series.

The Lakers are 28-8 SU at home, but just 17-19 ATS. They are shooting only 43.2% FG for the series, including 28.6% on three-pointers. SF Metta World Peace (7.7 PPG during regular season) will make his playoff debut after serving a suspension for elbowing James Harden. He hasn’t fared very well against Denver this season with just 7.8 PPG on 33% FG, but will certainly help with his versatile defensive skills. SG Kobe Bryant continues to carry the offense with 31.2 PPG, or nearly one-third of L.A.’s points this series. He’s also added 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG and 1.3 SPG to help make up for his 44.9% FG and 32.5% three-point clips. Bynum’s numbers this series are strong (16.8 PPG, 11.3 RPG), but he’s made just nine field goals during the two-game losing skid. Gasol averaged 17.4 PPG during the regular season, but has just 11.2 PPG in the series, including a mere 12 points on 5-of-21 FG in the past two contests. PG Ramon Sessions is shooting only 40.3% FG for the series (23.5% threes), but his numbers are pretty well-rounded: 13.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.3 APG.

[StarDust Bum]

76ers, Celtics begin series Saturday in Boston

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 8 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

at No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS


Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -5, Total: 170½

The 76ers are riding high after beating top-seeded Chicago in the first round of the playoffs, and now they will try to repeat the feat against a veteran Celtics team in a series that begins on Saturday afternoon in Boston.

Both of these teams are playing less than 48 hours after completing grueling, low-scoring six-game series. However, both squads have thrived in these little-rest situations all season as Philly is 24-17 (21-20 ATS) when playing with one day of rest, and Boston is even better at 26-14 (25-15 ATS). The Celtics could’ve used a couple more off-days for SF Paul Pierce (sprained knee) and Allen (ankle). Both veterans expect to play through their injuries on Saturday. Who will come out strong in Saturday’s Game 1? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. The ******* staff finished 12-3 ATS on Thursday night, and ******* Brian is 6-3 ATS (3-0 Best Bets) since Tuesday.

This series promises to be a defensive struggle as well, as the C’s rank second in the NBA in scoring defense (88.7 PPG) and the Sixers are third at 89.0 PPG. All three of their meetings this season have been lopsided. Philly won a laugher at home on March 7, 103-71 then claimed victory again 16 days later, winning comfortably on its home floor, 99-86. The Celtics avoided the season sweep on April 8, crushing the 76ers 103-79 at TD Garden, which marked their sixth win in seven home games versus Philly.

Boston’s backcourt did not play particularly well versus the 76ers this season, as SG Ray Allen and PG Rajon Rondo were held to just 6.0 PPG apiece. Rondo, who has been outstanding in the 2012 playoffs (16.8 PPG, 11.8 APG, 3.4 SPG), was able to dish out 13.3 APG in those three meetings though. SF Paul Pierce and PF Kevin Garnett posted very similar numbers versus the 76ers this season. Pierce scored 17.7 PPG (53% FG) with 6.0 RPG, while Garnett had 16.0 PPG (54% FG) and 6.3 RPG. Both players are also coming off big performances in the first-round series win over Atlanta. Pierce led the C’s with 21.2 PPG, adding 6.3 RPG and 3.8 APG. Garnett averaged a double-double (18.7 PPG, 10.5 RPG) making a team-best 51% of his shots.

Philly outrebounded Boston by 10.6 RPG in the regular season series, thanks to 12.5 RPG from C Nikola Vucevic, who did not play a single minute in the first round against Chicago. C Spencer Hawes has been logging the majority of minutes at the five-spot, and had a strong showing in the series against the Bulls (11.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG). PG Jrue Holiday was Philly’s top player in the first round, piling up 18.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.7 APG in the six games. SF Andre Iguodala was the hero of the Game 6 clincher by sinking clutch free throws down the stretch and finishing the game with 20 points, seven assists and four rebounds. He also had a well-rounded performance against Boston this season with 12.3 PPG (49% FG), 6.0 APG and 4.7 RPG. PF Elton Brand was Philly’s top scorer in the three games with the Celtics (14.7 PPG), but has scored a total of 17 points (7-of-27 FG) in his past four contests.

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Lakers favored in Game 7

May 11, 2012

Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers set for Game 7 Saturday night on TNT
Former Laker and current TNT analyst Shaquille O'Neal said that "experience" will prevail in Game 7 for Los Angeles. Experience didn't help them close out the series with Denver in Game 5 and it wasn't a factor Thursday night either.

The Nuggets have made the Lakers look old and slow, not experienced, in their last two wins. They jumped out to a 13-0 lead in Game 6 and L.A. never got closer than six points the rest of the way. The 113-96 final was more than enough for the home team to cover NBA odds of -3.

That spread moved from -1.5 to -3 over the course of the day because of Kobe Bryant's illness. He lost fluids all day and apparently even threw up on the team bus going to the arena. Bryant played and was the only Laker in rhythm offensively with 31 points.

Andrew Bynum has shown his true colors in this series. His laziness has essentially cost the Lakers the last two games. Bynum only made 4 of 11 shots Thursday, didn't play in the fourth quarter and was seen sulking at the end of the bench, not participating in a team huddle, which has become commonplace for this slacker. Pau Gasol can shoulder some of the blame for Game 6's loss too. It wasn't for lack of effort, but Gasol just had an off night and went 1 of 10 from the field with three points.

"I expect them to come out Game 7, and play with a sense of urgency and a sense of desperation that wasn't there the last two games," Bryant said of his 7-foot teammates.

Bynum admitted afterward that they weren't matching the energy of the Nuggets. George Karl has made it top priority to not allow him to get going, and clearly Bynum is frustrated. Karl sends double- and triple-teams at Bynum every time he touches the ball.

You get the feeling that Bryant doesn't trust anyone outside of himself. His quotes convey the notion that he thinks he has to win this series by himself. And you can see that everyone outside of the Lakers' Big Three is lacking confidence.

Metta World Peace will return from his seven-game suspension Saturday night. He should give the Lakers a shot in the arm to both ends of the floor, and ease Bryant's trepidation.

"He's the one guy that I can rely on night in and night out to compete and play hard and play with a sense of urgency and play with no fear," said Bryant. Denver comes back to Tinsel Town with all the confidence in the world. And if the Nuggets can force L.A. into their tempo and hit 3-pointers like they did in Game 6, they will win this series.

Prior to Thursday night's contest, Karl said he wanted Ty Lawson to be more aggressive. Lawson posted 25 points in Game 3's win but averaged just 10.0 in the next two outings.

Lawson's shooting coach from Las Vegas was flown in Wednesday and apparently fixed a flaw in his mechanics. The speedy point guard hit 13 of 18 shots for 32 points Thursday.

Denver shot 50 percent (10 of 20) from downtown in Game 6 after struggling from deep throughout the series, and Game 6 turned into a blowout. Karl said that he had an epiphany a few days ago that these two teams are equally talented. He told his guys that they didn't have to be great to win this series, just good, and now they believe they can.

But bettors should keep in mind that only eight teams in NBA history have battled back from a 3-1 deficit to win a playoff series. Also, no Nugget has ever played in a Game 7 before, but experience hasn't helped the Lakers lately.

BookMaker made Los Angeles a 6-point favorite for the series finale. The total opened at 197.5 and was quickly bet down to 196.5. Use BookMaker's NBA live betting feature to wager on this game while it's happening.

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Karl can't wait for Nuggets' Game 7

May 11, 2012


LOS ANGELES (AP) - Although George Karl has spent nearly a quarter-century on NBA benches, the Denver coach can't beat down the butterflies when he thinks about the Nuggets' next game.

With a third straight victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night, Denver would become just the ninth team to escape a 3-1 series deficit, completing an improbable comeback against Kobe Bryant and Co. The Nuggets have stared down two elimination games with a maturity their coach only hoped he would see in this series, sending the bigger, stronger Lakers staggering home for a big finish.

Oh, and Saturday is Karl's birthday, too.

``I'm nervous already,'' Karl said Friday before the Nuggets caught another flight to Los Angeles. ``I am 61 years old and I haven't been nervous, this nervous, for a game this early in a long time.''

Everybody on both benches should share Karl's anxious stomach - but hopefully not Bryant's upset stomach, which felt much better Friday - when they return to Staples Center to decide a series that seemed pretty straightforward before it got awfully complicated over the previous four days.

While the Nuggets showed a nerve they didn't know they had, the Lakers stopped doing the dirty work that got them to the verge of the second round - and now Denver could sneak past them into a date with Oklahoma City on Monday night.

``I've seen a lot throughout my years, and I'm not that surprised,'' Bryant said before the sixth Game 7 of his career. ``They've played very well and got into a good rhythm now.''

While the Nuggets are rolling, the Lakers are reeling: Los Angeles has played horribly for nearly all of the past two games, with Bryant's Game 5 comeback falling short before Denver blew out the Lakers 113-96 in Game 6. If the Lakers blow the series, none of Bryant's teammates will be safe from the wrath of fans who expect championships - or a roster reconfiguration by general manager Mitch Kupchak and the Buss family, which also expects annual contention for rings.

``Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad,'' said Pau Gasol, who managed three points on 1-for-10 shooting and three rebounds in Game 6. ``We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do.''

And the cavalry is coming, in the form of an intense defender with dangerous elbows: Metta World Peace will start Game 7 after finishing his seven-game suspension for viciously hitting Oklahoma City's James Harden in the regular season.

World Peace went through another aggressive workout Friday, but wasn't in his usual genial mood afterward, giving brusque answers to almost every question.

``It's exciting, seven games,'' World Peace said. ``It's just a part of the playoffs. It's entertainment. ... I'm no more motivated than I was. I don't have any extra motivation.''

After Denver outworked and outran the Lakers in the last two games, Bryant is confident World Peace will lead the physical play necessary to slow the Nuggets, particularly Danilo Gallinari. But even Bryant's praise of World Peace after Game 6 carried a backhanded swipe at his other teammates.

``I expect him to come out and play with the tenacity that he's known for,'' Bryant said. ``He's the one guy I can rely on, night in, night out, to compete and play hard, and play with that sense of urgency, play with no fear. I'm looking forward to having that on my side again.''

Gasol had little reaction when asked about Bryant's comment. Andrew Bynum also didn't have much to say after accenting his unimpressive 11-point performance in Game 6 by again sitting outside the team huddles during timeouts, an occasional regular-season quirk the All-Star center calls ``getting my Zen on.''

``They're just getting it done from everywhere,'' Bynum said of the Nuggets. ``Not everyone is putting in, so we're stuck in the same boat. The only way to win is to come out and play hard.''

Lakers coach Mike Brown is in danger of a disastrous first-round exit for a franchise that made seven NBA finals in the previous 12 years under Phil Jackson. The Lakers' obvious lack of urgency hasn't reflected well on their new coach, who's also hoping World Peace will provide a spark.

``We don't have much to lose, so we're going to play him,'' Brown said. ``If you're a competitor, I think it is fun. You live for moments like this.''

The Lakers must immediately improve their effort and hustle after the Nuggets made 51.6 percent of their shots - including 10 3-pointers - and outrebounded Los Angeles 47-42 in Game 6. Denver just needs one more game with the same intensity and aggressive pace.

``It's tough to beat anybody on their home court, especially when they've got their crowd behind them, just like (in Game 6) it was tough to beat us,'' Denver rookie Kenneth Faried said. ``But we've got to go in with the same mindset and the same mentality that we did (in Game 6).''

Bryant is 4-1 in Game 7s in his career, including the decisive game of the 2010 NBA finals against Boston. But another Game 7 is more pertinent to the Lakers' current predicament: His only loss came in 2006 against the Phoenix Suns, who completed the NBA's most recent comeback from a 3-1 series deficit by stunning the Lakers.

``There's a lot of energy in the building, and teams play with a sense of desperation on every single possession,'' Bryant said. ``It's a fun game to be a part of.''

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers & Nuggets Play Do-Or-Die Game 7

Will Kobe Bryant’s frustration with his teammates push the the Los Angeles Lakers to victory in Saturday’s Game 7 do or die matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets, or launch them into the offseason much sooner than many expected?

Like him or not, Kobe Bryant will not step on the basketball court and ever give less than 100 precent...injured, sick or otherwise. The same can’t be said for his fellow Lakers.

Pau Gasol’s play in the last two games vs. the Nuggets has been laughable, culminating with his pathetic Game 6 performance that ended with three points and three rebounds in 28:54 minutes played. To make matters worse, his defensive effort and overall hustle was suspect as time and time again the Denver big men beat Gasol down the floor.

Now what for the Lakers? Metta World Peace returns from his suspension and should bring some much needed energy and a defensive presence his team has sorely lacked in his absence. MWP became an important piece in the Lakers offense down the regular season stretch scoring in double figures nine times in the final 10 games while averaging 16 points per game over that stretch.

Ty Lawson has continued to spark Denver’s fast paced offense. Los Angeles has had no answer for Lawson in Game 6 where he hung 32 on the Lakers in just 30 minutes of floor time. Denver is now 4-2 against the spread in the series and 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games overall.

The Don Best odds screen currently has the Lakers laying 5½ points with a total of 196½ in Saturday's nightcap on the NBA slate (10:30 p.m. ET).

After both teams closed out their respective series on Thursday night, the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers tip Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at 8:00 p.m. (ET) at TD Garden.

The hungry Sixers defeated the Celtics twice early in the lockout shortened season. The third and final meeting between these Atlantic Division foes (a Boston 103-79 victory) should be more indicative of what Philadelphia will face in this seven-game series. Kevin Garnett is now playing center. Ray Allen is coming off the bench to provide some scoring punch to the second unit. second year defensive specialist Avery Bradley is providing speed and defense to the starting unit and collectively, these changes have turned the Celtics from old and pretending to experienced and contending.

Doug Collins has done a remarkable job in Philadelphia but, the buck stops here for the Sixers. Boston will bring a business as usual playoff mentality while my intuition tells me Philadelphia may experience a huge letdown after their emotional series-clinching victory Thursday night over the top-seeded Chicago Bulls. The Sixers offense is clumsy, bulky and bogs down more often than not. Bradley’s ball pressure will pester Evan Turner into turnovers and make it difficult for Philadelphia to get into their sets.

To make matters worse for Philly, the Celtics defense, as a unit, is playing as well as it has all season. Barring a series-ending injury to Garnett or Paul Pierce, Boston should be facing the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals sooner rather than later.

Boston opened as 5½-point chalk with 170½ for the total on Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, May 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia +5 500
Boston - Under 170 500

Denver - 10:30 PM ET Denver +5.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 196.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, May 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

L.A. Clippers - 1:00 PM ET Memphis -8 500

Memphis - Under 177.5 500

Indiana - 3:30 PM ET Miami -8.5 500

Miami - Over 188 500

[Kaptain]

bust em good today BUM

[StarDust Bum]

Finally, Spurs get to play

May 14, 2012

Los Angeles Clippers versus San Antonio Spurs
The upcoming second round series between the Los Angeles Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs features two teams similar in the make up of the roster, but widely different in approach. Both teams have top point guards capable of singlehandedly taking over a game, star power forwards, and scorers off the bench. However, the Spurs come in with an overwhelming amount of experience and veteran leadership, two characteristics not normally attributed to the Clips.

Let's look ahead to how you should approach this Clippers vs. Spurs series in your attempt to win with a bet on the NBA playoffs.

The Spurs enter this one after having taken care of the Utah Jazz in a relatively easy four-game sweep. San Antonio won each of the first three games by double digits and held a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of game 4 before enduring a Jazz comeback attempt.

Tony Parker is on the top of his game, and has been all season long. However, he will face a point guard of equal caliber (or greater) in his head to head battle with Chris Paul.

Tim Duncan, meanwhile, will face off with the young highlight machine Blake Griffin. What Timmy D now lacks in athleticism he makes up in smarts and fundamentals, two things he has always used to his advantage. Griffin would be wise to take a look at the Big Fundamental in this series to pick up some tips on post moves.

The Spurs and Clippers are both deep, talented teams that are capable of running away from their opponents. However, it is the experience and discipline of the Spurs that will win out here. The coaching disparity is gaping between San Antonio's Gregg Popovich and L.A.'s Vinny Del Negro, and it will show in how the two teams execute their respective game plans. Make sure the live lines throughout the series go in your advantage as you bet on the NBA playoffs.

BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker sportsbook!

[StarDust Bum]

Heat-Pacers Outlook

May 11, 2012

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers

Series Price: Miami -900, Indiana +625

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, May 13
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 15
Game 3 - Thursday, May 17
Game 4 - Sunday, May 20
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 22
Game 6* - Thursday, May 24
Game 7* - Saturday, May 26




HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-21 33-35 27-39 31-5 19-16 98.5 92.5
46-25 35-36 36-33 24-11 21-14 97.7 94.4



2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
1/4/12 Miami (-7.5) 118 vs. Indiana 83 OVER 197
2/14/12 Miami (-2) 105 at Indiana 90 UNDER 199.5
3/10/12 Miami (-9.5) 93 at Indiana 91 (OT) UNDER 195
3/29/12 Indiana (+3.5) 105 vs. Miami 90 OVER 192.5



Skinny: Miami treated the Pacers like a D-League squad the first two times they crossed paths back in January and February. Never mind that Indiana has consistently been among the East's best since the lockout-shortened season tipped off, the Heat made sure they sent the message that they weren't looking for any company atop a conference they had to wrestle away from Boston.

Over the last two months, the gap appeared to close. Indiana lost on a Dwyane Wade-winner in OT down in Miami on Mar. 10 and routed the Heat, 105-90, two weeks later.

The Pacers sport a better record than Miami since the All-Star break and are talking the talk as they trek down to South Florida for the start of their first conference semifinal appearance since 2005. Not only do they say they're dreaming big and set to walk in stride with the league's emerging superpower, they're being downright antagonistic, poking the top seed squarely in the eye.

Roy Hibbert said his Pacers came together through trials and tribulations, more than insinuating Miami took a shortcut by opening the checkboook and putting three $100-million players together. Coach Frank Vogel took real talk further, pulling no punches in calling the Heat out for playing to the officials.

"They are the biggest flopping team in the NBA," Vogel told the Indianapolis Star. "It'll be very interesting to see how the referees officiate the series and how much flopping they reward... Every drive to the basket, they have guys not making a play on the ball," Vogel said, "but sliding in front of drivers. Oftentimes they're falling down even before contact is even being made. It'll be interesting to see how the series is officiated."

What will really be interesting is whether Miami can punish the Pacers for their bravado. It goes without saying that they'll set out to embarrass them. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra promised a physical series worthy of a cage. That this will not be friendly is a given. Whether it can be competitive is where the intrigue lies.

The Pacers can't afford Danny Granger to shoot poorly and wilt in the presence of LeBron James. They need Hibbert to impose his will in the paint, not his rendition of a 7-foot-2 disappearing act. Paul George can't play like a 22-year-old NBA sophomore, even though he just celebrated that birthday on May 2 in the midst of his second postseason. Multiple pieces must play over their heads. Miami's supporting cast must fail its star teammates when the extra pass is made. The Heat will have to meet them in the middle, creating some breaks and opportunities.

It remains to be seen whether the Pacers will have the bite to match the bark. They've set the tone that they don't intend to cower, but we won't know until Game 1 tips if they've simply been digging themselves a deeper grave.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The second quarter of that first game went 33-12, Miami, leading to a 118-83 wince-worthy humiliation. The first half of the second encounter ended with the Heat up 68-39 at halftime. If that's a bit confusing, the gist is that Indiana didn't belong on the same court.

In the March meetings, the Pacers had the fresher legs. They were coming off lengthy layoffs prior to both, while Miami was playing its third road game in four night in its only loss. The Heat lacked the energy that helped them steamroll through those first few weeks. Remember the Chip Kelly-inspired pace? All the talk of angles and superior athletes executing at a tempo that can't be slowed? Indiana certainly couldn't keep up.

That changed post All-Star, as Indiana held the Heat to 39 first-half points in that third showdown, limiting James to just six at the break, one of his lowest-scoring first halves since arriving from Cleveland. They forced 17 turnovers in the final regular-season meeting, building up a 56-44 second-half edge to roll to victory.

After being out-rebounded in all three losses by a combined margin of 137-108, Indiana dominated the boards by a 49-33 count in its win, holding Chris Bosh to two in 36 minutes. The Pacers saw David West, Hibbert, Granger and George combine for 40 boards, as each grabbed at least nine. Count on the gang-rebounding approach to continue as Vogel attempts to keep the pressure off Hibbert.

Leandro Barbosa added 14 points in his only game as a Pacer against Miami, so count on him, Darren Collison and Tyler Hansbrough being factors off the bench to try and exploit the Heat's lack of depth. One curveball they haven't seen is George Hill in the starting lineup, as Indiana's new point guard missed all three losses and played just 15 minutes in the win, going scoreless. His ability to defend both Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers will be a major asset.

Betting Notes: Game 1 will set the tone as to whether you'll have to lay double-digits at home when backing Miami. Oddsmakers installed the Heat as 8-point favorites, similar to what they did against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks. Following the loss of Iman Shumpert and how convincingly Miami thrashed New York in the series opener, it became a little dicey to back Heat blowouts. Don't expect to see the Pacers favored at all in the series, as they were a home 'dog in both regular-season meetings. Vogel has only beaten Spoelstra's Heat once in six tries since taking over for Jim O'Brien. The average score of those meetings is 105.5-99, and the teams have split against the spread.

Four of the six meetings have gone 'under' the posted total. The Pacers have a better record against the number on the road than they do at Banker's Life Fieldhouse, where they were just 15-18 in the regular season and 2-1 against the Magic. They were 17-16 in away games and 1-1 at Amway Center, failing to cover despite winning in OT and sweeping a pair in Orlando. The Heat are a combined 31-5 at home counting their unblemished playoff mark, beating the Knicks three times by double-digits.

Series Outlook: James has been exceptional against the Pacers and has a history of terrorizing Granger, who was one of his chief rivals when he played for the Cavs in the Central Division. He's averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists against Indiana this season, so even though Granger and George have the requisite size to deal with him on the perimeter, neither has proven strong enough to stop him. If the Pacers are to reverse that trend, it will be up to George to frustrate him with his length, putting the bulk of his energy in to the defensive assignment. Hill's insertion into the starting lineup means he'll see a lot of Wade, freeing up Granger to shadow Chalmers, help where he can and concentrate on spreading the floor on the offensive end.

On paper, it all sounds great. Indiana has players that have participated in All-Star Games across the front line in Granger, West and Hibbert, so the arsenal is there to give the Heat problems. That said, you saw what happened when they got down to business against New York, so its disconcerting for Indiana that its viewed as a stronger challenger. Mix in the rattling of cages the Pacers have done and you can expect Miami in message-sending mode throughout this semifinal series. Most are already penciling in the Heat into the Eastern Confernce finals given how unlikely it is that the Pacers can score four wins, so these first games in South Florida will be crucial in determining how much fight the underdog is actually packing. Ultimately, whether in a sweep or a series that goes the distance, Miami will advance.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Monday

May 14, 2012

Philadelphia at Boston (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET) -

Can Philadelphia earn a split in Boston? That’s the question gamblers face when Game 2 tips at TD Garden tonight. On Saturday, the 76ers played a great game but they came up short as Boston earned a hard-fought 92-91 victory in the series opener. Philadelphia got the cover as a 5 ½-point underdog and the combined 183 points jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 171.

Surprisingly, Boston’s Kevin Garnett led all scorers with 29 points, which was needed since Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined to shoot 8-of-21 from the floor and just 2-of-9 from 3-point land. Rajon Rondo proved once again why he’s arguably the best point guard in the league, finishing with 13 points, 12 rebounds, 17 assists and four steals. Andre Iguodala led Philadelphia with 19 points in the loss.


The 76ers had no answer for Rajon Rondo in Game 1 on Saturday. (Getty Images)

After the close call on Saturday, the oddsmakers opened Boston as a 4 ½-point favorite in Game 2. The total received a boost and is hovering between 173 and 174 points at most books.

The 76ers and Celtics both pushed the pace in the first installment, as each team attempted 82 shots. Ironically, both teams shot the same percentage (43.9) from the field. The difference was free throws, Philadelphia going 14-of-20 while Boston connected on 18-of-19.

Including Saturday’s outcome, the home team is now 4-0 straight up (3-1 against the spread) this season. However, Game 1 was the first decision that was decided by single digits.

VegasInsider.com expert Vince Akins wasn’t surprised by the tight affair on Saturday. He said, “Wins generally don’t come easy for Boston in this series. They’ve beaten Philly by more than four points in just two of their last eight matchups while half of their last 10 wins over the 76ers have been one possession games. “

Bettors looking for the 76ers to rebound and earn the split can get a generous payout on the adjusted series price, which is listed at 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300).

Game 3 will be played in Philadelphia in Wednesday.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City (TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET) - Game 1 Picks

The Lakers kept their playoff hopes alive last Saturday as they eliminated Denver in Game 7 of their opening round series. Los Angeles notched a 96-87 home decision as a 5 ½-point home favorite, outscoring Denver by eight points (27-19) in the fourth quarter. The club got a big boost from Metta World Peace, who added 15 points and five rebounds. Peace, the player once known as Ron Artest, returned after serving a seven-game suspension from elbowing Oklahoma City’s James Harden in the head on Apr. 22.

Los Angeles wound up winning that affair against the Thunder in overtime (114-106), which was its only victory against them this season. And most believe that if Harden wasn’t knocked out in the second quarter, the Thunder probably wouldn’t have blown a 16-point lead at Staples Center.

In the other two regular season encounters, OKC outclassed the Lakers at home (100-85) and in Los Angeles (102-93). The ‘under’ cashed in both of these games, while the ‘over’ luckily connected in the aforementioned overtime game.

The books sent out Oklahoma City as a six-point favorite over Los Angeles in Game 1 and the number has already spiked up to 7 ½ at most betting shops. OKC could be a bit rusty since it hasn’t played in nine days but it has played well with longer breaks in this shortened season. On three days of rest or more, the Thunder have gone 3-0 both SU and ATS, and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three as well.

Even though Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, three of the victories came by six points or less and the two wins at home were by one and three. The Thunder failed to cover Game 1 and 2 at home, but they did cash the final two games on the road. Three of the four games against the Mavericks went ‘over’ the total as OKC averaged 99.8 points per game.

The series price also saw some early action as well. Oklahoma City opened as a minus-350 (Bet $350 to win $100) favorite at CRIS and the price was immediately pushed up to minus-460 (Bet $460 to win $100). Gamblers expecting the Lakers to capture the best-of-seven battle can get odds as high as plus-380 (Bet $100 to win $380) at the offshore outfit.

Some bettors might be surprised by the high price on Los Angeles and take the underdog. VegasInsider.com handicapper Bruce Marshall isn’t fooled by the aura of the Purple and Gold. He explained, “Oklahoma City mostly dominated the Lakers this season, winning easily in the first two meetings and comfortably ahead in the third meeting before a late L.A. rally against a Thunder. The Lakers defense proved a step slow coping with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook this season, OKC has presence inside with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka to deal with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, and Thabo Sefolosha is one of the best defenders of Kobe Bryant in the league. I expect the Thunder to control this series.”

The Thunder could be without their experienced center Perkins (hip), who is listed as ‘questionable’ for Game 1.

One of the biggest differences between the Lakers and Thunder this season has been their play on the road. Los Angeles has gone 16-20, which includes a 1-2 record versus Denver in the first round. Oklahoma City produced a 23-12 ledger, with two of the wins over Dallas in the playoff opener.

Game 2 is scheduled for Wednesday.

[StarDust Bum]

76ers try to even up series Monday in Boston

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 8 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

at No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS


Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 2 – Boston leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -4½, Total: 174

The Celtics eked out a one-point victory over the 76ers in an extremely even Game 1, but hope to get some more separation in Game 2 on Monday night.

Both teams shot an identical 36-for-82 FG (43.9%), the rebounds were 36-33 in favor of the Celtics, Philly had two fewer turnovers (11 to 13) and one more block (8 to 7) in the 92-91 Boston win on Saturday. Can the 76ers even the series on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. The ******* staff finished 8-2 ATS on Sunday. ******* Dave is 9-4-1 ATS (4-2 Best Bets) since Tuesday and ******* Scott is 6-3-1 ATS (4-1-1 Best Bets) over the past five days.

With its ATS victory on Saturday, Philadelphia is now 17-20 (19-18 ATS) on the road, and is also a solid 24-18 (22-20 ATS) with one day of rest this season. The 76ers are also decent after an SU loss, going 19-14 (17-16 ATS) in this scenario, allowing a mere 87.1 PPG. SF Andre Iguodala’s strong showing (19 points, six rebounds, six assists) led the 76ers in Game 1, but the PG duo of Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams shot a combined 7-of-24 FG with four assists and four turnovers. SG Evan Turner was the one guard who played extremely well, finishing with 16 points (7-of-13 FG), 10 rebounds, four steals and three assists. C Spencer Hawes (15 points, eight rebounds) and reserve PF Lavoy Allen (12 points, six rebounds) were the other double-digit scorers for Philly. Allen played more minutes (20) than starting PF Elton Brand, who posted underwhelming numbers of four points and one rebound in his 15 minutes of action before suffering a left cervical neck spasm. He and SF Thaddeus Young (right ankle sprain) are both expected to play on Monday night though.

The Celtics made just 2-of-18 threes in Game 1, but were nearly perfect from the foul line (18-of-19) to help erase the 10-point deficit with 11 minutes remaining. Although Boston had the two best players on the court Saturday in PG Rajon Rondo (13 points, 12 rebounds, 17 assists, four steals) and PF Kevin Garnett (29 points, 11 rebounds), the rest of its team did not shoot particularly well, most notably SF Paul Pierce (3-of-11 FG). However, Pierce still contributed six rebounds, six assists and two blocks. PF Brandon Bass posted a game-worst rating of -13, scoring 10 points (4-of-9 FG) with four rebounds in 24 minutes. SG Ray Allen had the game’s best rating (+17), scoring 12 points (4-of-10 FG) in 33 minutes off the bench. SG Avery Bradley chipped in with eight points (4-of-11 FG), but had just one assist and two turnovers.

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder host Lakers in Monday's Game 1

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Semifinals
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City -7½, Total: 191½

The Lakers finished off a hard-fought series with Denver on Friday night, and now will get less than 48 hours of rest before visiting an Oklahoma City team that hasn’t played since May 5.

The Lakers big men came up huge in Friday’s Game 7 over the Nuggets. C Andrew Bynum and PF Pau Gasol combined for 39 points, 35 rebounds (20 offensive boards), 10 blocks and seven assists in L.A.’s 96-87 victory. But the post players will have quite a challenge in this series against C Kendrick Perkins and PF Serge Ibaka, who are regarded as two of the better interior defenders in the league. The OKC duo combined for 21.0 RPG and 6.3 BPG during the regular season versus the Lakers. Which team will come out stronger in Game 1? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. The ******* staff finished 8-2 ATS on Sunday. ******* Dave is 9-4-1 ATS (4-2 Best Bets) since Tuesday and ******* Scott is 6-3-1 ATS (4-1-1 Best Bets) over the past five days.

The Lakers are a dreadful road team at 16-20 (12-23-1 ATS), and are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Oklahoma City. Chesapeake Energy Arena might be even louder than usual, as they will be all over Metta World Peace, who gave James Harden a concussion with elbow to the head the last time these teams met. But after serving a seven-game suspension for his actions, World Peace made his playoff debut on Saturday, and came through with 15 points and four steals in the Game 7 win over Denver. He didn’t play particularly well against the Thunder this season with 10.0 PPG on just 34.5% FG.

The league’s leading scorer, SF Kevin Durant, outdueled Kobe Bryant this year, scoring 29.7 PPG with 7.7 RPG and 4.7 APG in the season series, which Oklahoma City won 2-1. Bryant scored 24.3 PPG with 7.0 RPG and 4.3 APG in the three meetings, but made just 30.7% FG. Another key to this series will be how PGs Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake match up against dynamic OKC point guard Russell Westbrook. Sessions has been playing through a sprained left shoulder, and it appears to have affected his shot in the past three games (9-for-29 FG, 31%). However, Blake had a huge Game 7 on Saturday with 19 points on 7-of-11 FG. He made 5-of-6 threes and is now 10-for-17 from downtown over his past four games. His hot shooting was also the result of Bynum and Gasol drawing attention down low. Bynum was able to score 16.3 PPG with 11.0 RPG against the Thunder this season, while Gasol posted 18.3 PPG and 9.7 RPG in the three meetings.

Oklahoma City doesn’t lose very often at home, going 28-7 (17-18 ATS) this season, posting a hefty 105.7 PPG on 49% FG. Harden will no doubt have extra incentive in this game facing World Peace, and the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year is coming off his best game of playoffs. In the series finale against Dallas, Harden scored 29 points on 11-of-16 FG (3-of-4 threes) with five rebounds, five assists and three steals. He scored 13.0 PPG on 50% FG against the Lakers this season. PG Russell Westbrook shot poorly against the Lakers this year (33.3% FG), but still managed to score 23.0 PPG with 7.0 APG in the three meetings. In his two home playoff games this year, Westbrook scored 28.5 PPG on 52% FG. Durant averaged 26.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in the series sweep of Dallas, pumping in at least 24 points in every game. Former Lakers PG Derek Fisher will also play a role in determining the outcome of this series. After not scoring in Game 1 against Dallas, Fisher averaged 11.0 PPG on 14-of-21 FG (5-of-9 threes) in the final three games of that first-round series.