The Bum's NHL Playoff Best Bets Road to the Stanley CUP !

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Saturday, April 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 3:00 PM ET Washington +142 500
NY Rangers - Over 5 500

Los Angeles - 7:30 PM ET St. Louis -154 500
St. Louis - Under 5 500

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NHL Series Preview: Devils vs. Flyers

2012 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
No. 6 NEW JERSEY DEVILS

vs. No. 5 PHILADELPHIA FLYERS


Starts: Sunday in Philadelphia, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Season Series: Tied 2-2
Series Line: Philadelphia -180, New Jersey +150


After knocking out the Stanley Cup-favorite Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, the Philadelphia Flyers now shift into the role of Goliath as they take on Atlantic Division-rival New Jersey in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The Flyers series against their in-state rivals played out more like a three-ring circus than the prototypical NHL playoff battle. A high-scoring series was expected—the Pens and Flyers ranked first and second, respectively, in goals per game—but nobody could have predicted the embarrassing disappearing act put on by the defenses and goaltenders. The two teams combined for an incredible 56 goals in six games. The Devils, meanwhile, struggled to hold off the pesky Florida Panthers—eventually taking them down in a double-overtime thriller in Game 7 after trailing in the series 3-2. New Jersey could not hang onto a lead, blowing a 2-0 advantage in Games 6 and 7 before squeaking out overtime victories in each. The Devils also lost Game 3, at home, 4-3 after jumping out to an early 3-0 lead. If New Jersey doesn’t ratchet up its defense, it could be a quick exit in the second round against the high-octane Flyers.

Two Reasons Why the Devils Can Win:
1. Ilya Bryzgalov
Yes, you read that right. Mr. Universe actually might be a positive for the Devils. The Flyers goaltender was absolutely dreadful for most of the series with the Penguins, posting a woeful .871 SV Pct. and 3.89 GAA—both marks were second-worst in the first round only to Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. The Russian netminder did little to quell his poor playoff reputation dating back to his days in Phoenix, and was fortunate to have such an elite offense playing in front of him. The Devils certainly have the offensive firepower to frustrate Bryzgalov, and it will be important for New Jersey’s forwards to consistently pepper him with shots. The sooner the Devils can get in his head, the better off they will be.

2. Score More Goals
This ties into the first reason, but it truly is the Devils biggest strength. Gone are the days where New Jersey relies on the trap system and Martin Brodeur’s elite goaltending—this Devils squad is built around offense and Brodeur, set to turn 40 next week, is in the twilight of his career. The Devils defense looked overwhelmed by a rather average Florida attack in the first round, so it’s scary to think about what kind of damage the lethal Flyers can inflict. New Jersey will rely heavily on its top line of Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac and Zach Parise, who combined for eight goals and seven assists in the first round. It might sound strange since it’s the playoffs, but the Devils game plan must be to outscore the Flyers, because it’s unlikely their defense will be able to deal with the speed of the Philly forwards. That will mean increased contributions from second-line players like Patrik Elias (two goals), David Clarkson (five assists) and rookie Adam Henrique (two goals, one assist)—the hero who potted the decisive goal in Game 7.

Two Reasons Why the Flyers Can Win:
1. O My
As mentioned the Flyers are pretty good at scoring goals. Philly tallied 30 times in the first round for an absurd average of five goals per game. C Claude Giroux (six goals, eight assists) leads all players in postseason points by a wide margin (five points), and he’s truly done it all for this Flyers team—on the power play, on the penalty kill, and even as a pest who successfully got under the skin of Sidney Crosby. And at just 24 years old, it’s hard not to consider Giroux one of the best three players in the league at this point. The Flyers also had a big series from C Danny Briere (five goals, three assists) and veteran RW Jaromir Jagr (one goal, six assists). The reason the Flyers are so successful is their tremendous depth up front, allowing head coach Peter Laviolette to roll three legitimate scoring lines. With young studs like rookie Sean Couturier (three goals, one assist), Jakub Voracek (two goals, five assists) and Wayne Simmonds (one goal, three assists), the sky is the limit for this talented group of forwards.

2. Over the Hump
Now that the Flyers have gotten past their bitter rival, it’s hard to imagine them having a more challenging series at any point on the road to the Stanley Cup Finals. At this point, the biggest obstacle for the Flyers will be a mental one. It’s human nature to experience a bit of a letdown after an emotional win—and make no mistake about it, this was a huge psychological victory for Philly, who had lost its two most recent playoff series against its biggest rival. But this team is well coached and understands the magnitude of the moment. There is truly no team left in the East that can match the Flyers in terms of sheer talent. If they tighten it up on defense and in goal just a bit, it could be smooth sailing into the next round after clearing the highest hurdle early on.

******* Analysis:
This series should not be that close. The Devils won their first round series despite getting outplayed by the Panthers for long stretches—including the third period of Game 7. Despite boasting the best regular season penalty-killing unit in the league (89.6 percent), the Devils allowed nine goals on 26 chances for a horrific 65.4 kill percentage (second-worst in playoffs). That simply will not cut it against a deadly Philly power play that converted at an other-worldly 52.3 percent rate in the first round (12-for-23). Also, the Devils just did not seem committed to team defense. Their defenders were a half-step slow and lost too many board battles against the Panthers. To Florida’s credit, its forwards did an excellent job on the forecheck, making New Jersey’s blueliners pay the price physically, but this will be a much tougher test with the big and bad Broad Street Bullies. Philly should have absolutely no trouble scoring goals against this team, and as long as Bryzgalov plays like he did in Games 6 of the Pens series (30 saves, one goal allowed) it shouldn’t be a grueling series. The one question mark for the Flyers will be the depth of their blueline, which is still missing Andrej Meszaros (back surgery), Chris Pronger (concussion), Marc-Andre Bourdon (lower body) and now Nicklas Grossman, who suffered a concussion of his own in Game 4. But because the Devils have few scoring threats outside their top two lines, veteran Pavel Kubina and rookie Eric Gustafsson will be put in a position to succeed with favorable matchups. Don’t fear the juice on this one: it’s StatFox’s most confident pick for the second round. Prediction: FLYERS IN 5.

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Flyers & Rangers Lead Eastern Conference Quartet

The NHL Playoffs conference semifinals are set after a wild and entertaining first round. Four of the top eight seeds have been eliminated, with more carnage coming from the Eastern Conference.

The first game gets underway Friday at 9:00 p.m. (ET) with the No. 3 Phoenix Coyotes hosting the No. 4 Nashville Predators. Odds have stayed pretty steady with both at -110. The total is five and shaded to the ‘under.’

The ‘under’ went 4-0 in the Coyotes’ last four games (against Chicago). The ‘under’ was 2-0-3 in Nashville’s first round series against Detroit.

Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. (ET) brings us the St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings, with offense expected to be at a premium. The No. 2 Blues are 160 home favorites with a total of five (heavily shaded to the ‘under’). They handled San Jose in five games in the first round, while the No. 8 Kings shocked top-seed Vancouver in the same timeframe.

These teams allowed the fewest goals in the regular season with St. Louis at 1.89 and Los Angeles at 2.07. That’s continued in the postseason with each at 1.60, tied for the lead.

The Kings’ offense scored just one goal in regulation each of the last three games, but still won two thanks to the tremendous goaltending of Jonathan Quick. This was the second-worst offense during the regular season (2.29), with St. Louis moderately better at 21st (2.51).

St. Louis has a hot goaltender of its own in Brian Elliott. He had a league-leading (by far) 1.56 GAA during the regular season, but is not a Vezina Trophy finalist after playing just 38 games and sharing time with Jaroslav Halak.

Here’s a preview of the Eastern Conference series, with the first one also starting on Saturday.

(1) New York Rangers vs. (7) Washington Capitals
Series Odds: Rangers -175; Capitals +155
Game 1: Saturday, April 28, 3:00 p.m. (ET)
Season Series: 2-2; 1-1-2 'over/under/push'

Top-seed New York survived a giant scare last night by beating Ottawa (2-1) in a Game 7 at home. Offense was hard to come by all series and the Rangers must get more production from leading regular season scorer Marian Gaborik. Game 1 odds have New York as 160 favorites with a total of five (shaded to the ‘under’).

The Capitals just knocked out defending champion Boston in seven games, including winning Game 7 on the road. They are far more talented than a normal No. 7 seed, with injuries hurting regular season production. They’re also buying into coach Dale Hunter’s defensive-minded system, with upstart young goalie Braden Holtby also helping make this a very tight series.

(5) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils
Series Odds: Flyers -170; Devils +150
Game 1: Sunday, April 29, 3:00 p.m. (ET)
Season Series: 3-3; 4-2 'under/over'

Philadelphia was arguably the most impressive team in the first round, beating Cup favorite Pittsburgh in six games. The Flyers scored a playoff-leading 5.0 goals per game, but also allowed 4.33, so goalie Ilya Bryzgalov needs to tighten things up as well. Philly is 165 chalk in the opener with a total of 5 ½, shaded to the ‘under.’

The Devils join the Rangers as another team lucky to be alive. They needed a Game 7 win (3-2 double OT) in Florida to advance. They also won in overtime in Game 6 to avoid elimination. Goalie Marty Brodeur had an inconsistent series and will turn 40 on May 6. Fatigue could be a huge factor after such a grueling effort.

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Sunday, April 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 3:00 PM ET Philadelphia -159 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

Nashville - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix +107 500
Phoenix - Under 5 500

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Monday, April 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +138 500
NY Rangers - Over 5 500

Los Angeles - 9:00 PM ET St. Louis -148 500
St. Louis - Under 5 500

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Tuesday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -164 500 Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

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Wednesday, May 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET NY Rangers -101 500
Washington - Under 5 500

Phoenix - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix +137 500
Nashville - Over 5 500

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LA Kings Back Home With 2-0 Lead Over St. Louis Blues

The upstart Los Angeles Kings have been the surprise team of the NHL Playoffs. They look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over the St. Louis Blues on Thursday night.

Updating the Wednesday odds first, the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals (-110) switch the series to the nation’s capital tied 1-1. The total is five and tilted towards the ‘under’ (-135) on the Don Best odds screen. Don Best hockey analyst Benjie C. doesn’t believe home ice is a big factor in this series (and most series), but the Rangers' big scorers need to start stepping up against hot young goalie Braden Holtby.

Phoenix is also at Nashville on Wednesday and surprisingly leading that series 2-0. Nashville is a 150 favorite with a total of five and shaded to the ‘under.’ The money line reflects the fact that Predators forwards Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn are suspended for violating team rules.

Phoenix won all three of its road games in the first round versus Chicago. Two of the games reached five goals due to overtime. Underrated goalie Mike Smith has outplayed the more celebrated Pekka Rinne this series.

Turning back to Thursday, Philadelphia and New Jersey are back at it at 7:30 p.m. (ET). The Devils are small 115 home favorites with a total of 5½ and heavily leaning to the ‘under’ (-150). They could be up 2-0 in this series, but are happy with the split in Philly after winning 4-1 on Tuesday.

New Jersey forward Ilya Kovalchuk (back) missed last game and is listed as questionable on Thursday. Benjie C. expects a different Flyers team in Game 3, getting pucks to the net and making things more difficult on the aging Marty Brodeur.

The Los Angeles Kings hosting the St. Louis Blues is the featured game on Thursday. The puck will drop at 10:00 p.m. (ET) from the West Coast with the home team a 115 favorite and a small total of 4½, shaded to the ‘over.’

The Kings are doing major damage as a No. 8 seed, first dispatching top-seed Vancouver in five games, and then taking the first two in this matchup (3-1, 5-2) on the road. The somewhat bandwagon Kings’ fans are firmly on board now and they should be with a great goalie like Jonathan Quick on their side.

The Blues are the No. 2 seed from the West and opened by beating San Jose in five games, even after losing Game 1. They need to get back to their successful ways that started when coach Ken Hitchcock took over in early November.

Note that Brian Elliott will be the goalie the rest of the series with Jaroslav Halak (ankle) ruled out.

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Friday, May 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Phoenix - 7:30 PM ET Nashville -155 500

Nashville - Over 5 500

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Capitals And Rangers Get Saturday NHL Spotlight

The Washington Capitals are in a desperate situation as they host the New York Rangers in the only NHL Playoff game on Saturday. The puck will drop at 12:30 p.m. (ET).

Let’s first update the odds for the only Friday night game, Phoenix at Nashville in Game 4 at 7:30 p.m. (ET). The Predators are 160 favorites after a 2-0 home win on Wednesday and partially avenging the opening two losses in the desert. The total is five and shaded to the ‘under.’

Nashville coach Barry Trotz was looking for a team spark and he may have gotten it with the suspensions of forwards Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn. Both players will sit tonight as well, as Trotz doesn’t want to change the Game 3 success.

Don Best Sports analyst Brian Blessing is in complete agreement with Trotz to hold the two forwards out of Game 4, invoking the old "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" motto.

The Predators are also hoping goalie Pekka Rinne is back on track after stopping all 32 shots on Wednesday. His save percentage in Phoenix was just 85.7 percent (54-of-63).

Switching back to Washington and New York, this series has been very close-fought, especially considering the triple overtime affair on Wednesday. The Rangers won 2-1, with the struggling Marian Gaborik coming through with the game-winner. Washington can’t afford to lose on Saturday and head back to the Big Apple down 3-1 in games.

The Capitals are listed as 115 home favorites and a total of 4½, shaded to the ‘over.’ They do need to stop squandering their home games, now just 1-3 in the playoffs, compared to 4-2 away. The Rangers are 3-1 on the road, but Blessing likes Washington in this one.

The Caps do have a couple of things going for them. The first is that 22-year-old goalie Braden Holtby has played well the last two games and isn’t being overmatched against New York’s Henrik Lundqvist.

Coach Dale Hunter’s guys have also been resilient in these playoffs, going 4-0 after a loss. We’ll see if that trend continues on Saturday.

Note the odds for two Sunday games (and the two remaining series) have just been released. Los Angeles is a 135 home favorite over St. Louis as it gets the brooms ready for a sweep. The total is 4½ and shaded to the ‘over.’

New Jersey is 115 home chalk over Philadelphia. The Devils lead that series 2-1 after winning (4-3) in overtime on Thursday night. The total is 5½ with the ‘under' (-150) and Blessing has been on the ‘over’ bandwagon in this series since the beginning.

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Playoff Results - Second Round

May 5, 2012

First Round Results

Home teams are 7-6
Favorites and Underdogs are 5-8
Favorites that won are 3-2 on the puck-line
The 'over/under' stands at 6-6-1

Fri Apr 27, 2012
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Nashville Phoenix (-105) 4-3 Underdog Over 5

Sat Apr 28, 2012
Washington NY Rangers (-130) 3-1 Favorite Under 5
Los Angeles (+140) St. Louis 3-1 Underdog Under 4.5

Sun Apr 29, 2012
New Jersey Philadelphia (-160) 4-3 Favorite Over 5.5
Nashville Phoenix (+110) 5-3 Underdog Over 5

Mon Apr 30, 2012
Washington (+135) NY Rangers 3-2 Underdog PUSH
Los Angeles (+135) St. Louis 5-2 Underdog Over 4.5

Tue May 1, 2012
New Jersey (+145) Philadelphia 4-1 Underdog Under 5.5

Wed May 2, 2012
NY Rangers (-102) Washington 2-1 Underdog Under 5
Phoenix Nashville (-155) 2-0 Favorite Under 5

Thu May 3, 2012
Philadelphia New Jersey (-120) 4-3 Favorite Over 5.5
St. Louis Los Angeles (-113) 4-2 Favorite Over 4.5

Fri May 4, 2012
Phoenix (+140) Nashville 1-0 Underdog Under 5

Sat May 5, 2012
NY Rangers Washington

Sun May 6, 2012
St. Louis Los Angeles
Philadelphia New Jersey

Mon May 7, 2012
*Washington NY Rangers
*Nashville Phoenix

Tue May 8, 2012
*New Jersey Philadelphia
*Los Angeles St. Louis

Wed May 9, 2012
*NY Rangers Washington
*Phoenix Nashville

Thu May 10, 2012
*Philadelphia New Jersey
*St. Louis Los Angeles

Fri May 11, 2012
*Nashville Phoenix

Sat May 12, 2012
*Washington NY Rangers
*New Jersey Philadelphia
*Los Angeles St. Louis



*If Necessary

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Saturday, May 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Rangers 0 1st 8:20 Washington -109 500

Washington 0 Under 5 500

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Sunday, May 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 3:00 PM ET St. Louis +123 500

Los Angeles - Over 5 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -103 500

New Jersey - Over 5.5 500

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Monday, May 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +140 500
NY Rangers - Under 5 500

Nashville - 10:00 PM ET Phoenix -109 500
Phoenix - Under 5 500

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New York Rangers At Capitals For Game 6

We know the participants in the Western Conference Finals, and we might know one-half of the Eastern Conference showdown Tuesday night when the New Jersey Devils take their 3-1 lead to Philadelphia looking to finish the Flyers.

The other half of that showdown could be decided Wednesday in Game 6 between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals. We'll take a closer look at that matchup in a bit after we recap Monday's events and take a quick look at Tuesday's contest.

It's going to be an all-Pacific Division clash in the Western Conference Finals after the Phoenix Coyotes dispatched the Nashville Predators on Monday. Phoenix was outshot by Nashville nearly 2:1, but got another solid game from goalie Mike Smith (32 saves) to claim a 2-1 victory.

The Coyotes, who didn't clinch the Pacific Division title until the final game of the season, will face the Los Angeles Kings for the West crown. The Kings claimed the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference by the skin of their teeth, but have since taken care of No. 1 seed Vancouver and No. 2 St. Louis after entering the postseason as +1100 underdogs to hoist the Stanley Cup.

Meanwhile back east, there has been some movement in the odds for Tuesday's contest between the Flyers and Devils. Opening numbers priced Philadelphia at -150 to stave off elimination with New Jersey leading the series three games to one. Action on the Devils has lowered the Philly chalk to the -125 to -130 range. The total remains at 5½ and strong to the 'under' at most shops.

Heading back to the future and Wednesday's Rangers-Capitals contest, this back-&-forth series returns to DC's Verizon Center where the puck drops at 7:30 p.m. (ET). The game is a consensus pick 'em on the Don Best odds screen, and the 5-goal total is priced heavy on the 'under' at -150.

Those bettors employing the zigzag theory in this matchup have been cashing tickets left and right with the clubs alternating wins in the first five games. Should that continue, it is Washington's turn to taste victory in Game 6 after dropping a 3-2 overtime decision Monday in New York.

The Rangers scored the tying goal and game winner less than two minutes apart, and thanks to having the man advantage on both goals due to a high-sticking call on the Caps' Joel Ward with less than 30 seconds remaining in the third period. Brad Richards sent the game into OT with his fifth playoff goal with just seven seconds left in regulation. New York then opened overtime on the power play and wasted little time with the man advantage as Marc Staal's second playoff goal ended matters about 90 seconds into extended play.

The two power play goals came after New York missed its first three opportunities in Game 5 and had converted on just 2-of-13 power play chances in the first four contests of the series. Washington's power play has also been ineffective this series with three scores in 13 chances.

Washington got off just 18 shots in Game 5 compared to 38 by the Rangers, by far the most one-sided that column has been all series.

One thing working in the favor of Caps fans and bettors for Game 6 is goalie Braden Holtby's performances following a Washington loss this postseason. Holtby is a perfect 5-0 in that situation with a .959 save percentage (162-for-169).

Should Washington get the win Wednesday, Game 7 would be played back in New York at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.