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**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:30 PM

Opening Round Angles

March 12, 2012

The 2012 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let's take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

NCAA TOURNEY - MOST RECENT TRENDS

#1 Seeds are 84-0 SU (48-35-1 ATS) vs. #16 Seeds
#2 Seeds are 80-4 SU (35-45-4 ATS) vs. #15 Seeds
Only TWICE since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (5-7 SU & 8-4 ATS L3Y)
Favorites of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 14-28-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
Favorites of 20 > pts are 2-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
Favorites of > 7 pts who scored 100 > pts in last Conference Tourney game are 11-2 ATS
Dogs of 4 > pts playing off a SU Conference Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 7-27-1 ATS last 12 years
Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 5-1 ATS
Dogs off a SU tourney win in which they allowed 80 > pts are 2-11 ATS

Because it's my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let's take a look at some of the more relevant Most Recent Trend results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:

FIRST ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds off BB SU wins who are favorites of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
#2 Seeds are 9-24-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 32-1 SU & 24-8-1 ATS (10-2 L7Y)
#4 Seeds are 27-13 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (11-4 L7Y)
#7 Seeds are 1-7 ATS vs. foes off BB SU losses
#9 Seeds are 0-4 ATS as favorites of > 2 pts

Conference Tournament Champs in this round

ACC: 3-0-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS
Big 10: 4-6 ATS
Big 12: 3-8 ATS
Big East: 5-1 ATS
Big West: 1-5 ATS
Colonial: 12-6 ATS
C-USA: 1-4 ATS
Horizon: 6-1 ATS
MAC: 6-2 ATS
Missouri Valley: 2-5 ATS
Mountain West: 3-11 ATS
Pac-12: 4-2 ATS
Sun Belt: 3-2 ATS
SEC: 1-3 ATS
WAC: 2-5 ATS
West Coast: 3-1 ATS

Best Team SU records in this round

Purdue: 13-0
North Carolina: 10-0
Kansas: 5-0
Wisconsin: 5-0
Kentucky: 18-1
Duke: 14-1
Cincinnati 10-1

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Worst Team SU records in this round

Clemson: 0-5
New Mexico St: 0-4
Creighton: 1-5

Best Team ATS records in this round

VCU: 4-0
Xavier: 6-1-2
NC State: 5-1
New Mexico: 5-1
West Virginia: 5-1
Purdue: 4-1

Worst Team ATS records in this round

Clemson: 0-5
Temple: 0-4
Creighton: 1-5
Notre Dame: 1-4

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Big 10: 6-1
Pac 12: 8-2
Horizon: 9-3
MAC: 9-3
Colonial: 8-4
Missouri Valley: 14-7

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

CUSA: 1-5
Big West: 1-4
Ivy: 3-11
Big 12: 2-7

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I'll be back next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round action.

Now, let the games begin!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:33 PM

Must-see matchups

March 12, 2012

Make sure you've got all the glitches worked out of your picture-in-picture.

If you don't have it, have your computer handy and keep a game streaming. In this day and age, there's no excuse for missing a great moment in the NCAA Tournament. Appreciate that you no longer have to suffer through a period where there's only one game on and cut-ins come too late, if at all, forcing you to watch after already having seen a score or heard about a dramatic finish. Oh, the humanity.

Fortunately, technology has come around, because with opening round games now part of the mix, there are even more quality matchups to look forward to in a 68-team field.

Here are the Top 10 matchups to keep an eye on before the weekend rolls around. The offerings are so good that UConn/Iowa State didn't make the cut.

10) No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 N.C. State (Opening Line – N.C. State -1.5)

Steve Fisher has no Fab Five, Glen Rice or even Kawhi Leonard to throw out there, but his Aztecs still finished as co-champions of a Mountain West conference that's never been stronger. Versatile scorers Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley are capable of flourishing in the ACC, so N.C. State gets no break in this opener. After nearly toppling UNC in the ACC semis, the Pack's confidence has never been higher. N.C. State will have to utilize its size inside, but SDSU has chopped down bigger trees than C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell. Expect a nail-biter.

9) No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Opening Line – Memphis -3.5)

This rivalry dates back to pre-CUSA, when the two regularly hooked up in the oldest of the old school, Metro Conference. If Rick Majerus has his way, the programs will have higher-profile meetings down the road, as he's gone on record saying he expect to turn the Billikens into a perennial Top-10 team. Memphis has been at that level over the last decade and has the talent to make a real run in this tournament. Will Barton and Joe Jackson are elite level players and Wesley Witherspoon is shockingly playing like one. Majerus hopes to sabotage those hopes with stingy defense and a solid half court attack led by gritty forward Brian Conklin, whose job inside could be made easier if Tigers center Tarik Black's forearm is of any hindrance.

Tommy Amaker and Harvard hope to make some noise in the opening round. (Getty Images)

8) No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Harvard (Opening Line – Vanderbilt -6.5)

Kevin Stallings was emotional following his team's upset of Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final, but I'm more curious as to what expletive came out from under his breath when this pairing was announced. For Vandy's trouble of moving up a few seed lines, it earns a date with the smartest team in the field, a capable Harvard squad that spent its early days serving as Jeremy Lin's supporting cast and has since grown into the Ivy League's biggest puncher. The Crimson own wins over NCAA qualifier FSU as well as NIT-bound schools St. Joseph's and UCF. They aren't small, as Kyle Casey, Keith Wright and freshman Steve Moundou-Missi can all really play. The Commodores better not celebrate that first SEC title too long or they're destined for a short life span. Fortunately for Vandy, Stallings knows how challenging Tommy Amaker's Harvard team will be.

7) No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama (Opening Line – Alabama -1.5)

Somewhere, Tony Mitchell will be somewhere watching with conflicted emotions. The athletic wingman suspended by head coach Michael Grant in February would love to be out there with his Crimson Tide teammates, but if he were, he'd have to deal with Doug McDermott. Creighton's 6-foot-8 star forward is a matchup nightmare due to his excellent footwork and supreme skill, leading his father's team to a Missouri Valley Tournament title. As the lynchpin of a veteran Blue Jays squad that has burly senior Gregory Echenique to throw JaMychal Green, don't sleep on the MVC squad being able to hang right with one of the SEC's most athletic squads. Since it won't be Mitchell, undersized freshman Levi Randolph will see a lot of McDermott, offering no grace period in his first postseason game.

6) No. 6 UNLV vs. No. 11 Colorado (Opening Line – UNLV -4.5)

The Mountain West has been thumping its chest that it had a much better year than the Pac-12, an argument that has been magnified by Colorado State getting an at-large bid ahead of regular season champ Washington. The Buffs won the conference tourney in their first year after arriving from the Big 12 thanks to double-double machine Andre Roberson and freshman swingman Spencer Dinwiddie, but will have to be on their toes to keep from getting hammered by the highly-regarded Runnin' Rebels. If UNLV gets rolling, it could deliver another black eye to the Pac-12 in a season filled with them. If it shoots itself in the foot with turnovers and missed free throws, they might wind up as one of the tournament's biggest disappointments. Mix in the conference drama and you've got great television.

5) No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State (Opening Line – New Mexico -5)

Casper Ware opened the eyes of many pros who were trying to stay sharp out in L.A. summer leagues during the NBA lockout. Clearly, his confidence took off, since he rode the momentum to his second Big West Player of the Year award and often dwarfed opposing guards. So, yeah, Kendall Williams and Demetrius Walker need to be concerned. All of the Lobos should be, because second-leading scorer Larry Anderson is coming back after sitting out the conference tournament and Dan Monson is certainly capable of finding a few weaknesses in the Mountain West champs. Considering the Beach has battled Kansas, North Carolina, San Diego State, Louisville, Xavier, Pitt and Kansas State, this moment won't be too big for them.

4) No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Xavier (Opening Line – Notre Dame -2.5)

At one point this season, Xavier looked like a Final Four team. In short spurts, they exhibited similar brilliance in the A-10 Tournament, but couldn't handle Andrew Nicholson in the final. Notre Dame, the ultimate overachievers, again took off after losing its leading scorer, coming together following the early-season loss of Tim Abromaitis. It will be hard to guess who shows up here, but two of the oldest Catholic universities in the country are certain to put on a great show. Watching Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons square off against younger up-and-comers Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant is worth the price of admission alone.

3) No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Texas (Opening Line – Cincinnati -2.5)

The Bearcats reached the Big East Tournament final and have been far more consistent offensively down the stretch, winning nine of their last 12. Will having to wait until Friday to get into the mix quell that momentum? Texas is certainly formidable and carries in a healthy cogniscience of its mortality since it nearly missed the dance altogether. The Longhorns, among the last teams in, pack a lethal go-to scorer in J'Covan Brown and plenty of big bodies up front that can bang with Yancey Gates, so this game should be extremely competitive.

2) No. 7 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 West Virginia (Opening Line – West Virginia -1)

No need to ask where the beef is. Robert Sacre doesn't see the likes of Deniz Kilicli very often and neither are into the feeling out thing. Look for them to bang their husky 6-10 frames into one another like sumo wrestlers from the jump. It will be up to talented sophomore Elias Harris to keep the Big East's scorer and rebounder, Kevin Jones, from giving the Mountaineers a pulse. It's worth noting that tape of them going up against one another in such a huge game will be must-watch material for every NBA scouting department. Bob Huggins and Mark Few, too? This might not be one of the crispest games of the early rounds, but could be one of the most hotly-contested. The coaches demand it.

1) No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU (Opening Line – Wichita State -5.5)

With people openly wondering who steps up as this tournament's Butler or VCU, Wichita State gets to volunteer by beating last year's surprise Final Four crasher. Shaka Smart lost a few key pieces, but has reloaded with a deep team that throws the kitchen sink at you nightly, pressuring and defending while thriving from the perimeter. The Shockers are similar, only that they have gotten even more out of that recipe this season than the reloading Rams have. There's a reason Wichita State, with Toure' Murry potentially serving as the 2012 Joey Rodriguez, is the highest-rated mid-major in the field. VCU, which played in the First Four last year and was almost left out, could care less what the committee thinks. The Rams won their way via the Colonial Athletic tournament and have their sights set on shocking the world again. This game is what the NCAAs are all about. Broaden your horizons.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:36 PM

Bracket Analysis

March 12, 2012

**Who can cut down the nets in New Orleans?**

I’ve identified 12 teams that are capable of winning six in a row in the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky and Syracuse have the best chances and before the injury to John Henson, I would have lumped North Carolina in there with the ‘Cuse and UK.

But Henson’s wrist injury kept him out of most of the ACC Tournament and it was evident how much his absence impacted the Tar Heels, who barely got past N.C. St. in the semifinals and lost to FSU in the finals. (We’ll know more about Henson’s wrist later this week.)

Our next tier of teams consists of Missouri, Kansas, Ohio St., Michigan St. and Vanderbilt. I’ve been hyping the Commodores for several weeks and tweeted that they were a great future play at 75/1 on March 1. Those odds aren’t anywhere to be found now.

Kevin Stallings’ bunch won a 71-64 decision over UK in Sunday’s SEC Tournament finals. The Commodores hooked up their backers as eight-point underdogs, cashing money-line tickets for a plus-350 return at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $350).

I have four other teams that have the talent and are capable of winning it all, but they are less likely to do so before the eight other aforementioned squads. This quartet is composed of Baylor, Florida, UConn and Michigan.

The Bears have as much talent as anybody in America, but I question their chemistry, shot selection and committment to get stops defensively. The Gators can beat anyone when they’re draining 3-pointers galore, and they have hit more treys than any team in the country.

The problem for UF is a lack of depth on the interior, but its draw of facing second-seeded Missouri is a plus. The Tigers play a similar style and don’t have a dominant front line. Plus, I give Florida the head-coaching advantage when looking at Billy Donovan and Frank Haith, and I think UF will be able to handle Mizzou’s vaunted pressure defense.

As for Michigan, it has one of the best point guards in America (Trey Burke), a great role player and senior leader (Zack Novak), an explosive scorer (Tim Hardaway Jr.), an excellent rebounder and post defender (Jordan Morgan) and an outstanding head coach.

As for the defending national champs, they seemed to regain their swagger at the Big East Tournament and losing to Syracuse might have been a blessing in disguise. Sure, UConn won five games in five days at MSG last year and fatigue didn’t catch up with it in the NCAAs, but I’m not sure that would’ve been the case again.

With Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi in the lane, the Huskies can cause problems for Kentucky and Anthony Davis. Jeremy Lamb is a lottery pick who can destroy opponents when he gets hot.

UConn’s guards are the wild cards. Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier are immensely talented, but Boatright gets too dribble-happy at times and should feed the big men more often. Napier is a terrific on-the-ball defender and can produce buckets in bunches, but his shot selection often leaves a lot to be desired.

But make no mistake, UConn is the last team John Calipari wanted to see in an 8/9 game in UK’s bracket.

Some might wonder why I’m not as bullish on teams like FSU, Duke, Georgetown and Marquette. I do think the Seminoles have an excellent shot at getting to the Elite Eight, but they go through too many scoring droughts to win six straight.

Duke’s head coach and 3-point shooting makes them a tough out, but the Blue Devils don’t have quality inside play or senior leadership. Finally, I’m not sure if Marquette or Georgetown is even going to get out of the first weekend.

**Committee Questions**

--Now that we’ve moved to 68 teams, it’s hard to feel for the ‘snubbed squads’ and I’m not sure many have valid cases this year. The only team I can really feel for is Drexel, which won 19 in a row before losing a nail-biter to VCU in the Colonial finals in Richmond without a key player (Derrick Thomas) that was suspended and will return for the postseason. But then again, the Dragons could’ve scheduled better. They went 4-3 against RPI Top 100 teams but faced just seven.

--Let’s not feel sorry for Seton Hall. If you want to go dancing, don’t lose to DePaul by 28 points in your regular-season finale.

--And please – PLEASE!!! – don’t lose any sleep over Mississippi St. being left out. The Bulldogs played themselves out with a plethora of lackluster efforts down the stretch and their SEC Tournament loss to Georgia sealed their fate.

--Tennessee certainly had the look of an at-large team over the last six weeks, but it’s difficult to overcome losses to Oakland, Charleston and Austin Peay. Also, a win over Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament was a must-have, and the Vols came up short in overtime.

--Now let’s talk about some questionable seeds. Florida should’ve been a No. 5 seed with wins over third-seeded FSU (by 18), Vandy and two wins over Alabama. Five of UF’s 10 losses came to teams in the RPI’s top six with only one of those defeats coming at home. I thought VCU had a shot at being in the 8/9 game but instead got a No. 12 seed. Vandy wins the SEC Tournament by dropping top-ranked Kentucky and yet is just a No. 5 seed and must travel to Albuquerque to play on Thursday. Creighton deserved better than an eighth seed, as I felt it would be in a 6/11 matchup.

--I’m ok with So. Miss getting a bid, but a No. 9 seed? I thought the Golden Eagles should’ve been one of the last 3-4 teams to get an at-large bid.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Best First-Round Games:
1-Purdue vs. Saint Mary’s
2-VCU vs. Wichita St.
3-UConn vs. Iowa St.
4-Alabama vs. Creighton
5-West Va. vs. Gonzaga
6-Louisville vs. Davidson
7-New Mexico vs. Long Beach St.
8-San Diego St. vs. N.C. St.
9-Michigan vs. Ohio
10-Georgetown vs. Belmont

--Five double-digit seeds most likely to get to Sweet 16:
1-VCU
2-N.C. St.
3-Xavier
4-West Va.
5-Davidson

--My pre-tourney Power Rankings:
1-Kentucky
2-Syracuse
3-North Carolina (IF Henson ready to play; otherwise UNC in 7-10 range)
4-Missouri
5-Kansas
6-Michigan St.
7-Vanderbilt
8-Ohio St.
9-Baylor
10-Florida
11-Michigan
12-Florida State
13-UConn
14-VCU
15-Louisville
16-Saint Mary’s
17-Creighton
18-Marquette
19-New Mexico
20-Wisconsin

**Indiana left out due to Verdell Jones’ injury.

--I've been harping on what a huge disappointment Xavier has been for months. However, now that the Musketeers have made the Tournament and the expectations have subsided, perhaps they're ready to make a nice push? After all, Tu Holloway is extremely motivated to play well after the worst game of his career in last year's first-round loss to Marquette. And Xavier's draw looks manageable from my vantage point.

--The four No. 1 seeds for the NIT are Tennessee, Washington, Seton Hall and Arizona.

--I can't help but wonder if Mississippi St. head coach Rick Stansbury is going to taste a pinkslip if/when Mississippi St. falls in the NIT.

--And in case you were wondering, both Mississippi St. and Northwestern were just No. 4 seeds in the NIT.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:39 PM

UConn opens 2012 NCAAs versus Iowa St.

9 seed CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (20-13)

vs. 8 seed IOWA STATE CYCLONES (22-10)

NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT – Louisville, KY
Line: Connecticut -2½

The defending national champions begin their quest for repeat title on Thursday night when Connecticut meets Iowa State in a Second Round NCAA matchup in Louisville.

Both teams have played pretty well down the stretch. UConn is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games, nearly beating Syracuse twice, losing by just two points and three points to the Orange. Iowa State has beaten both Kansas and Baylor during a strong season-ending, 12-game run (8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS). Can the underdog Cyclones pull out the victory on Thursday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Hall-of-Famer Jim Calhoun is an impressive 16-1 in NCAA Tournament openers as UConn’s head coach. His team's offense has been erratic this season, but the Huskies usually are tough defensively. They allow just 64.1 PPG on 38.4% FG, blocking 6.9 shots per game. Sophomore F/G Jeremy Lamb (17.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is the top scorer, but he needs to be more assertive in the offense. He did not score in the second half of the team’s last game against Syracuse, but he came up big last March with 16.2 PPG on 58% FG in the NCAA Tournament. You never know what to expect from PG Shabazz Napier (12.7 PPG, 5.8 APG) who has attempted 3, 4, 18, 2, 18 and 17 shots in his past six games. Napier shot very poorly in the 2011 NCAAs, scoring just 5.0 PPG on 28.6% FG. The talented freshman Drummond is coming off a strong performance against Syracuse, producing 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Huskies:

CONNECTICUT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 68.5, OPPONENT 59.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Iowa State is an excellent three-point shooting team, making 8.9 threes per game on a healthy 38% clip. Scott Christopherson (12.5 PPG) is the marksman at 45% and he has been on a roll with 19.8 PPG in his past six games. But the heart and soul of the Cyclones is sophomore F Royce White who leads the team in points (13.1 PPG), rebounds (9.2 RPG), assists (5.1 APG), steals (1.2 SPG) and blocks (0.9 BPG). He’s averaging 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 5.7 APG in his past three games. White’s one weakness is foul shooting, as he shoots a dreadful 49% from the line. Senior G Chris Allen is the team’s third double-digit scorer (11.8 PPG), but he is in a shooting slump over his past four games, making just 31% FG. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Cyclones to emerge victorious.

Play Against - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (CONNECTICUT) - after scoring 55 points or less, with four starters returning from last season. (45-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:41 PM

VCU takes on Wichita State Thursday

12 seed VCU RAMS (28-6)

vs. 5 seed WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (27-5)

NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT – Portland, OR
Line: Wichita State -5½

VCU tries to make another long run in the NCAA Tournament, which starts with a matchup against a tough Wichita State team on Thursday night in Portland.

The Rams are catching fire in March again as they have won 17 of their past 18 contests, including a three-game run through the Colonial Athletic Association to begin the month. The Shockers are also hot, going 19-2 since the 2012 calendar year began. But instead of winning the Missouri Valley as the conference’s top seed, WSU was stunned by 12-point underdog Illinois State in the MVC semifinals. Can VCU make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

VCU allows a mere 59.8 PPG on 42.3% FG this season, which helps to compensate for an offense that shoots very poorly (41.0% FG, 33.7% 3-pt FG). Senior swingman Bradford Burgess is the leading scorer (13.3 PPG), but he has shot terribly all season at 36.4% FG. He was a key part to the Rams success in last year’s NCAAs, averaging 15.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG in the six games. Sophomore F Juvonte Reddic (10.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) was scoring 13.6 PPG during a five-game stretch, but was held to four points on 2-of-5 FG in the win over Drexel in the CAA Championship game. But the main reason that VCU was able to beat the Dragons was due to the play of junior G Darius Theus (8.6 PPG), who lit them up for 16 points, five assists and five steals. This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Rams:

Shaka Smart is 27-9 ATS (75.0%, +17.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games as the coach of VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH. The average score was VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 70.8, OPPONENT 63.5 - (Rating = 3*).

Unlike VCU, Wichita State can score in bunches (77.7 PPG, 15th in nation) because it is a tremendous shooting team from all spots on the floor, making 48.5% FG (13th in nation), 37.3% threes and 75.1% free throws. Despite the gaudy numbers, Illinois State held the Shockers to 34.9% FG in their season-ending loss. Senior G Joe Ragland (13.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) had a game-high 17 points (5-of-9 FG) as the only starter that shot better than 50% from the floor. Senior C Garrett Stutz leads WSU in points and rebounds (13.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG), but is coming off a foul-plagued MWC Tournament. He scored just 6.0 PPG on 6-of-13 FG in his 19.5 MPG. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Shockers to win and cover.

WICHITA STATE is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WICHITA STATE 74.2, OPPONENT 60.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:42 PM

Colorado tries to keep rolling against UNLV

11 seed COLORADO BUFFALOES (23-11)

vs. 6 seed UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS (27-5)

NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:55 p.m. EDT – Albuquerque, NM
Line: UNLV -5

After a shocking four wins in four days in the Pac-12 Tournament, Colorado moves onto the NCAAs where sixth-seeded UNLV awaits.

The Buffaloes averaged only 59.8 PPG in their four conference tourney wins, but held all four opponents below 43% FG. Colorado is playing well, but this is the same team that got blown out by 14+ points in five separate Pac-12 games. The high-flying Rebels average 76.7 PPG (24th in nation) and have beaten great teams. But they are also 3-11 ATS in non-home games this year. Can Colorado keep its win streak alive? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Colorado took great care of the basketball during its Pac-12 run, with less than 10 turnovers in each of the four contests. It also received huge performances from sophomore F Andre Roberson (11.6 PPG, 11.1 RPG), who was one rebound shy of posting double-doubles in all four games, averaging 14.8 PPG and 10.3 RPG. Senior G Carlon Brown leads the Buffs in scoring (12.6 PPG) and has six straight games of 13+ points. This includes his 15.8 PPG in the four-game Pac-12 tourney run. This team doesn’t shoot particularly well from behind the arc (34.3%), but freshman G Spencer Dinwiddie is deadly from downtown, making 44% of his threes this season, including 4-of-4 in the Pac-12 Championship win over Arizona. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Buffs:

UNLV is 1-9 ATS (10.0%, -8.9 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. The average score was UNLV 72.3, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The Rebels are a team that can play with anybody, beating North Carolina earlier in the year. PF Mike Moser averages a double-double (14.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG) and SF Chace Stanback (12.7 PPG) has the ability to take over games with a 46.4% accuracy rate from three-point range and 15 games of at least 15 points this year. Feeding these two frontcourt players is the guard tandem of Oscar Bellfield (5.3 APG, 9.8 PPG) and Anthony Marshall (12.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) who can dominate a game in many different ways. Marshall kept his team in the game in its MWC tourney loss to New Mexico, scoring 19 points, while Bellfield had 13 points, six assists and just one turnover. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Rebels to win and cover.

UNLV is 61-36 ATS (62.9%, +21.4 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games since 1997. The average score was UNLV 73.9, OPPONENT 68.8 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:44 PM

Gonzaga faces WVU Thursday in Pittsburgh

10 seed WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (19-13)

vs. 7 seed GONZAGA BULLDOGS (25-6)

NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:20 p.m. EDT – Pittsburgh, PA
Line: Even

Gonzaga makes the long flight to Pittsburgh to face a team that is very familiar with the Steel City, the West Virginia Mountaineers.

As the spread would indicate, these are two very evenly matched basketball teams. But over the past five games, Gonzaga has looked to be the superior team, scoring 76.4 PPG on 48% FG, while WVU is scoring a pathetic 62.6 PPG on 37% FG. Defensively, the Bulldogs have limited these past five opponents to 63.2 PPG on 38.5% FG, while WVU has allowed its opponents to shoot at a 48% clip in this same time frame. But the Mountaineers will have more a virtual home game playing so close to campus. Which team will prevail on Thursday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

West Virginia should have five or six more victories this year, but it just can’t win close games, as six of its past seven losses have been by six points or less. The offense has been brutal in the past two games in particular, scoring 58.5 PPG on just 32.5% FG. The Mountaineers revolve around Kevin Jones who led the Big East in both scoring (20.1 PPG) and rebounding (11.1 PPG) this season. Jones has been relying on his jumper a bit too much lately, going 4-of-24 from three-point land in his past six contests, including 1-of-8 in the Big East quarterfinal loss to UConn. Jones has scored at least 12 points in every game this season, and is averaging 21.7 PPG and 12.3 RPG in his past three contests. WVU has another dynamic scorer in Darryl “Truck” Bryant (17.2 PPG) whose poor decision-making down the stretch has certainly cost his team dearly. For the season, he has 89 assists and 78 turnovers, which is not the ratio you want from the guy handling the ball so much. He’s had a total of just five assists in his past four games. But the talented senior guard has done a great job driving the lane and getting to the free-throw stripe, going 34-of-41 FT (83%) in his past three contests. Another key to this team is keeping junior C Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) on the court. He fouled out of the UConn loss, marking his eighth straight game of 3+ fouls. He has scored just 6.4 PPG on 36.6% FG in his past five contests. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Mountaineers:

WEST VIRGINIA is 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) in a post-season tournament game since 1997. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 71.9, OPPONENT 67.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The Zags were once the Cinderella darlings of the NCAA Tournament, but they have not enjoyed much success as a greater seed, going 4-8 ATS in this role since 1999. They are 4-10 ATS (29%) in the NCAAs since 2005. Gonzaga has also struggled outside of Spokane this season, going 4-9 ATS in non-home games. But the Bulldogs are a well-rounded team with an ever-improving freshman backcourt of Kevin Pangos (13.8 PPG) and Gary Bell Jr. (10.0 PPG). They also have big bodies in the paint with 7-footer Robert Sacre (11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and athletic 6-foot-7 junior Elias Harris (13.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG) who can score from anywhere. Harris is also an able defender and will probably be matched up on WVU’s star Kevin Jones. The Zags are so tough to guard because they shoot very well from downtown (38% 3-pt FG) with three marksmen shooting over 40% from behind the three-point arc in Bell Jr. (47.4%), Pangos (40.5%) and Harris (40.3%). This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes Gonzaga to prevail.

Bob Huggins is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) in road games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games as the coach of WEST VIRGINIA. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 63.6, OPPONENT 70.6 - (Rating = 3*)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:52 PM

Five teams that could screw over your bracket sheet

March Madness seems to be getting more unpredictable.

Two years ago, three double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16. Last year, four double-digit seeds made it, with No. 11 VCU dancing all the way to the Final Four.

In 12 of the past 15 years, at least two double-digit seeds played on the second weekend.

Here are five double-digit seeds that could follow suit and screw up brackets everywhere:

No. 13 Davidson Wildcats (25-7)

After the Wildcats beat Kansas 80-74 in Kansas City in December, Jayhawks coach Bill Self said, “That wasn’t an upset tonight.”

Davidson is in the tournament for the first time since Stephen Curry led the 2008 Wildcats to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. This team doesn’t have an NBA lottery pick, but it has SoCon player of the year De’Mon Brooks (16.0 ppg) leading an attack in which five Wildcats average in double figures. This smooth offensive club ranks 12th nationally in scoring (78.4), 15th in rebounding margin (6.7) and ninth in free-throw percentage (76.4).

No. 4 seed Louisville has bowed out in the first round two straight years. And the Cardinals can go into offensive funks. They averaged 53.3 points in their final four regular-season games before getting hot in the Big East tourney.

If Davidson pulls the “upset,” the Wildcats will face the winner of New Mexico-Long Beach State.

No. 15 Detroit Titans (22-13)

Six of Detroit’s 13 losses came early while 6-10 Eli Holman, the Indiana transfer, sat out due to suspension. The Titans blew out Valparaiso in the Horizon League championship game. They’ve got the best guard most people have never heard of: Ray McCallum, son of Detroit coach Ray McCallum.

McCallum could have played for any D-I powerhouse. He stayed home to revive his dad’s moribund program. With the tourney in sight, McCallum took his game to another level, shooting 59 percent over the last five games while collecting 22 assists and 11 steals.

No. 2 seed Kansas is a tough draw. But the Jayhawks have been known to bow out way earlier than expected. With Holman and another 6-10 senior, LaMarcus Lowe, the Titans can contain Thomas Robinson.

Aside from the Power 6 conferences, the Horizon is the only league that’s won at least one NCAA tournament game the last seven years. The Titans would face the Saint Mary’s-Purdue winner if they advance.

No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers (22-9)

Under coach Tony Bennett, who picked up the “Pack-Line” defense from his dad’s Wisconsin teams, the Cavs lead the nation in defensive efficiency. They hold opponents to 53.7 points. Teams do not get easy baskets against UVA.

Senior forward Mike Scott probably should have won ACC player of the year over Tyler Zeller. Scott (18.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg) shoots 56 percent from the field, 81 percent from the foul line.

True, the Cavs have no bench. But with the long TV timeouts in the NCAA tournament, depth is overrated.

After frustrating Florida, Virginia likely would face another run-and-gun team in Missouri.

No. 14 Belmont Bruins (27-7)

The Bruins, who enter on a 14-game win streak, feature a trio of versatile and experienced guards. Kerron Johnson (14.1 ppg), Ian Clark (12.6 ppg) and Drew Hanlen (11.0 ppg) helped Belmont rank third nationally in scoring at nearly 82 points per game.

This team can play with anyone, as evidenced by its one-point loss at then-No. 6 Duke on Nov. 11.

Belmont faces a Georgetown squad that’s lost in the first round in two straight years. If the Bruins advance, they’ll face the San Diego State-N.C. State winner.

No. 13 New Mexico State (26-9)

The Aggies open against an Indiana team that just lost its backup point guard and doesn’t play well away from Assembly Hall.

New Mexico State ranks 11th nationally in scoring (78.5). Senior forward Wendell McKines, who had 27 points and 14 rebounds in the WAC final, averages 18.5 points and 10.7 rebounds and teams with senior center Hamidu Rahman to form a potent inside duo. The Aggies feature two playmakers in senior Hernst Laroche (12.0 ppg, 3.8 apg) and freshman Daniel Mullings (9.3 ppg, 4.1 apg).

All season, WAC coaches said New Mexico State, with its size and athletic ability, would be scary if the team jelled. That happened in the conference tourney. In the championship game, the Aggies led 36-16 and were never threatened. They swarmed Louisiana Tech, holding the Bulldogs under 33 percent shooting.

If the Aggies advance, they’ll face the Wichita State-VCU winner.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:55 PM

NCAA preview & pick: Iona Gaels vs. BYU Cougars

Iona Gaels vs. BYU Cougars (-2, 160.5)

THE STORY: BYU and Iona will help kick off the NCAA tournament’s First Four on Tuesday, with the winner moving on to tackle No. 3 seed Marquette as part of the West Regional in the Round of 64. The Cougars look to build on last year’s run to the Sweet 16 after securing an at-large bid to make the 27th tournament appearance in school history. This is the ninth NCAA berth all-time for the Gaels and their first since 2006.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV. LINE: BYU -2

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (25-8, 12-4 WCC): Last year’s Cougars entered the tournament as a No. 3 seed and saw their dream cut short at the hands of Florida after wins over Wofford and Gonzaga. This season, BYU comes in a little more under the radar, falling to Gonzaga in the WCC semifinals and are 2-2 in their last four. The Cougars rank among the nation's leaders in assists per game, averaging 17. Noah Hartsock is BYU’s leading scorer, averaging 16.7 points per game and the Cougars have four players overall averaging double figures.

ABOUT IONA (25-7, 15-3 MAAC): The Gaels have marked their territory among national powers all season long from a statistical perspective, leading the NCAA in scoring at 83.2 points per game, and assists with 19.3 on average. Iona is also near the top in field goal percentage, connecting at a 50.4 percent clip on the season. Mike Glover leads the Gaels’ offense and topped all MAAC scorers with an 18.6 points per game average – good for 33rd in the nation. Scott Machado averages a near double-double with 13.6 points and a 9.9 assists per game.

TRENDS:

- The under is 5-0 in BYU's last five.
- Iona is 12-3-1 against the spread following an ATS loss.
- BYU is 1-5-1 against the number in its last seven non-conference games.

PICK: Iona +2

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 10:57 PM

NCAA preview & pick: Western Kentucky vs. Mississippi Valley State

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (4.5, 138)

THE STORY: Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky will meet Tuesday as part of the NCAA tournament’s First Four, with the winner advancing to take on No. 1 seed Kentucky in the Round of 64’s South Regional on Thursday. This marks the fifth NCAA tournament bid for the Southwestern Athletic Conference champion Delta Devils, while the Hilltoppers will make their 22nd appearance in the dance, after capturing the Sun Belt Conference title.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV. LINE: Western Kentucky -4.5

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (21-12, 17-1 SWAC): The Delta Devils rolled through the SWAC tournament, defeating Jackson State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern en route to the title. They have ripped off 20 wins in their last 21 games, including their championship run, after a 1-11 start to the season. MVSU has a nose for turnovers, ranking in the top 10 nationally with 8.8 steals per game. Paul Crosby and Terrence Joyner pace the Delta Devils’ offense, averaging 13.6 and 13.4 points, respectively, while Cor-J Cox adds an 11.4 average. MVSU’s last tournament appearance came in 2008, as a No. 16 seed, losing to UCLA 70-29.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (15-18, 7-9 Sun Belt): The Hilltoppers enter as improbable conference champions, having won six straight games overall to claim their first NCAA tournament berth since 2009. WKU has developed a knack for edging out close wins, with just two of its 15 wins this season coming by more than 10 points. During their six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have prevailed by an average of 4.2 points. Derrick Gordon is Western Kentucky’s leading scorer, averaging 11.8 points per game. The Hilltoppers last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2009, upsetting fifth-seeded Illinois before falling to No. 4 seed Gonzaga 83-81.

TRENDS:

- Western Michigan is 24-9 against the spread in its last 33 neutral-site games
- Mississippi Valley State is 1-6 against the number in its last seven overall.
- The under is 17-8 in Western Michigan's last 25 non-conference games.

PICK: Hilltoppers -4.5

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2012, 11:01 PM

Odds to win the 2012 NCAA tournament

The Syracuse Orange lost just two of their 33 games this season and went 17-1 in Big East play, which was enough for the tournament selection committee to hand Jim Boeheim’s boys the second overall seed in the Big Dance.

Oddsmakers don’t share the same confidence in the Big East champs. The LVH lists ‘Cuse, Kansas and Missouri at 12/1 behind tourney favorite Kentucky (2/1), North Carolina (6/1), Ohio State (8/1) and Michigan State (10/1).

Kentucky was +185 to win the tournament last week but the LVH raised its odds to +200 after losing in the SEC tourney final to Vanderbilt. Cincinnati’s odds dropped from 100/1 to 60/1 after winning the Big East tourney.

South Dakota State is the biggest long shot at 1000/1 with BYU, California, Colorado State, Colorado and Southern Mississippi next at 300/1. VCU, who made it all the way to the Final Four last year as one of the play-in teams, is 200/1 to win this season tourney.

Here is the complete list of odds to win the 2012 NCAA tournament:

Kentucky 2/1
North Carolina 6/1
Ohio State 8/1
Michigan State 10/1
Syracuse 12/1
Kansas 12/1
Missouri 12/1
Duke 20/1
Marquette 30/1
Louisville 30/1
Florida State 40/1
Baylor 40/1
Vanderbilt 40/1
Wichita State 40/1
Georgetown 50/1
Wisconsin 60/1
Indiana 60/1
Michigan 60/1
New Mexico 60/1
Cincinnati 60/1
Florida 75/1
Gonzaga 75/1
Memphis 75/1
Kansas State 75/1
UConn 75/1
Temple 100/1
UNLV 100/1
Murray State 100/1
Notre Dame 100/1
Saint Mary’s 100/1
St. Louis 100/1
Alabama 100/1
West Virginia 100/1
Texas 100/1
San Diego State 200/1
Iowa State 200/1
Creighton 200/1
Xavier 200/1
Virginia 200/1
Purdue 200/1
North Carolina State 200/1
VCU 200/1
Long Beach State 200/1
Southern Mississippi 300/1
Colorado 300/1
Colorado State 300/1
California 300/1
BYU 300/1
South Dakota State 1000/1
Field 100/1

Odds courtesy of The SuperBook at the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-13-2012, 06:20 PM

Big Dance Preview

March 13, 2012

"If you're goin' dancin', you don't care where you bought the ticket."

-New Mexico State HC Marvin Menzies, after being asked if his Aggies team would have rather advanced to the NCAA Tourney by beating regular-season champion Nevada than winning vs. longshot La Tech in the WAC Tourney finale

Yes, Marvin Menzies and his New Mexico State Aggies were pretty excited after winning the WAC Tournament at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas last Saturday night. As they and the other 67 Big Dance qualifiers should be as well.

After all, if there's one thing March Mayhem has taught us lately, it's that almost anything is possible. Thank Butler (twice), Virginia Commonwealth, and George Mason for allowing the likes of New Mexico State and several others to dream that they, too, could get to the Final Four.

Now, be honest, do you prefer the March Magic in hoops, or the staid BCS and bowl system of college football? (Just asking.)

We'll get to some possible "new" Butlers and Virginia Commonwealths and George Masons. For the moment, however, a quick review of the weekend and our take of developments on Selection Sunday.

For the first time in a while, we had no serious beefs with the NCAA Tourney Selection Committee on either its choice of teams (with one exception, addressed below) or their seeding. Maybe it's because we're getting pretty good at this "bracketology" stuff ourselves. We only missed on two of our projected at-large selections, with one of those the result of St. Bonaventure's mild upset win over Xavier in the Atlantic 10 finale which came after our final bracket update late Saturday night. That put the Bonnies into the field, and since we figured the Musketeers were in win or lose, that result automatically knocked out of our at-large candidates.

As it was, our only misses were Miami-Florida and Drexel, which were replaced by Cal and, effectively, the Bonnies in the final field of 68. We had Iona into one of the last at-large play-in spots and thought that Jim Larranga's Hurricanes might also get a favorable call, along with Drexel. We knew those last few picks were going to be dicey, but the chips fell mostly where we expected. Including all of the protected (one thru four) seeds, which we correctly tabbed on Sunday morning.

Still, it wouldn't be a Selection Sunday without a few bones to pick with the Committee. Although we suspect it was simply the inability of Committee Chair and Big East consultant (and former UConn AD) Jeff Hathaway to properly explain procedures and decisions that left us a bit baffled.

Such as:

1) Hathaway, like almost all past Committee chairs, dodges most questions relating to decision-making within the 10-member group. His roundabout non-answer to a very simple question from CBS's Jim Nantz regarding the Big Ten Tourney finale, and if Ohio State would have been on the top line instead of Michigan State had the Buckeyes instead won the game, would have made Mitt Romney proud. Hathaway also lost us when trying to explain Missouri's spot as the "eighth team" when seeded at the end of the second line, which shot holes in the supposed "S-curve" system in which the eighth-ranked team should have been matched up with the top tourney seed, which was Kentucky. With Hathaway admitting that Michigan State was the fourth seed and thus earning the final spot on the number one line, Mizzou was then likely the fifth overall seed, not the eighth. While going to great lengths to dodge a direct answer to one of the questions from the CBS panel regarding the Tigers, Hathaway instead botched the explanation.

Note to Committee chairs: why not simply tell the interviewers they are right once in a while with their theories, instead of acting as if information inside of the Committee room should be treated like national security directives?

2) Hathaway did a bit better when explaining the reasons behind selecting Iona instead of Drexel as one of the final at-large entries. But if what Hathaway said was true, we challenge the premise.

The reason? The Gaels were given credit for a much-tougher non-conference strength of schedule rating than the Dragons, but we are disappointed if the Committee members used that as the determining criteria, and didn't examine those slates a bit more closely. Drexel was apparently penalized heavily for scheduling games against Binghamton and St. Francis (PA), which turned out to be two of the nation's worst D-I squads, but also hit some bad luck when a potential matchup vs. Marquette in the Virgin Islands Paradise Jam in November never materialized. Meanwhile, Iona drew Big Ten Purdue and ACC Maryland in the Puerto Rico Tip-off Tourney. The Gaels did beat St. Joe's and Drexel lost to the same Hawks, but both games were in November.

And if we're talking about mid-majors "stepping up" their non-conference slates, don't show us a team that makes stops at Hofstra and William & Mary, and modestly challenges itself vs. Marshall, Richmond, Vermont, and Denver, as did Iona. Show us a team like Long Beach State, which went to Pitt, to San Diego State, to Louisville, to Kansas, to North Carolina, to Creighton, and tackled Xavier and Kansas State in the Hawaii Diamond Head Classic. Remember, Drexel has beaten the likes of Syracuse, Louisville, Temple, and Villanova in recent years, all on the road, and its giant-killer reputation has made it hard for Bruiser Flint to schedule higher-profile foes who want NO PART of the Dragons. Hardly Drexel's fault for not being able to schedule a couple of more higher-profile entries who wanted no part of the Philly bunch. That would include most of the local "Big Five" which has always viewed Drexel as a class below, with only Phil Martelli's St. Joe's brave enough to schedule Bruiser's boys this season.

Moreover, don't tell us Iona's Metro-Atlantic was anywhere near as tough as Drexel's Colonial this season. While the CAA had its weak links at the bottom of the loop, the upper and middle tier of the Colonial was much stronger and deeper than the Metro-Atlantic. Drexel's season-ending 19-game win streak ended in a narrow loss in the CAA finale vs. VCU, which advanced to the Final Four last season. Iona? Beaten soundly by Fairfield in the semifinals of the MAAC Tourney.

As we mentioned, we also had Iona in our field of 68, but we had Drexel on the safe side of the cut line, too. And if the Selection Committee used the argument of a stronger non-conference slate to make the decision between Iona and Drexel, it's a lot of hooey. The Committee was flat-out wrong if that was the criteria.

3) Elsewhere, the fascination with the Big East continues. Although we might be as guilty as the Selection Committee for granting the league such a wide berth; we had the same nine teams pegged into our field of 68 as did the Selection Committee. But it's about time we all ask ourselves if we aren't collectively overrating this loop. Only two of the record eleven entries into last year's NCAA field from the Big East advanced to the Sweet 16. And even though UConn stormed from the pack to eventually win last year's crown, few Big Dance entries were shaking at the prospect of facing Big East opposition. Don't be surprised if the Big East becomes the Big Least in March.

4) BYU? We had the Cougars into our field but in retrospect we overseeded Dave Rose's team, projecting the Cougars in the 10-11 range for the past few weeks. We suspect that the WCC connection helped BYU make the final cut this season, as the league rated highly with not only its top teams, but some other impressive wins by lesser entries in the loop (try Santa Clara, which went 0-17 in conference play, beating New Mexico and Villanova in pre-league play, and Loyola-Marymount notching several good wins, including non-conference successes vs. Saint Louis and UCLA).

5) Is there a Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, or George Mason in the house?

Maybe. Here are some stealth mid-major squads to keep an eye on this week. We exclude Murray State because everyone has been talking about the Racers since mid-January.

Virginia Commonweath...Why not the Rams again? Few teams were hotter down the stretch than VCU, which enters the Dance having won 17 of its last 18 games, with the only loss on a miracle 30-foot buzzer beater by George Mason's Sherrod Wright on Valentine's Day at Fairfax. VCU subsequently avenged that loss twice and then won a heart-stopper over aforementioned Drexel in the CAA final. Not as accomplished offensively as last year's Final Four team that could bomb from the perimeter with Joey Rodriguez or dump the ball on the blocks to Jamie Skeen, but even better on the stop end with relentless, full-court pressure "havoc" defense that unnerved Drexel in the CAA title game and is best exemplified by lightning-quick frosh G Briante Webber, one of the best pickpockets (2.2 steals pg, while averaging just 19 minutes on the floor) in the nation. The closest thing to a go-to scorer is sr. swingman Bradford Burgess (13.3 ppg), a holdover from the starting unit that caused such a stir last March, but it's the Ram pressure that can distort games. We guarantee that Wichita State HC Gregg Marshall, who drew VCU in the sub-regionals at Portland, was hoping he would see any other name than the Rams' on the 12 seed line against his team.

Belmont...Rick Byrd's Bruins have been dancing several times (this being their fifth trip), nearly knocking off Duke a few years ago, and in fact played the Blue Devils real tough in this season's opener at Durham, losing by only 1. Belmont likes to force the pace and shoot 3s (making almost nine of them pg while scoring 81.5 ppg), which gives the Bruins a puncher's chance vs. the right foe. Last year, Wisconsin proved to be the wrong foe in a 72-58 Badgers win, but let's see if Georgetown can handle the Belmont tempo led by Gs Kerron Johnson (14.1 ppg), Ian Clark (12.7 ppg), and Drew Hanlen (48% triples) that helped the Bruins post some good non-conference wins over Middle Tennessee and Marshall, and fueled the current 14-game win streak and storm through the Atlantic Sun Tourney.

New Mexico State...We want to see the looks on the faces of the Indiana Hoosiers when they look across the court at New Mexico State during warm-ups in Thursday's sub-regional action at Portland. The internationally-flavored Aggies are arguably the most physically-imposing team in the tournament, a menacing collection of athletes with plenty of scary size (6-11, 6-10, and 6-8 types on the frontline), and a couple of unique weapons in bruising 6-6 sr. F Wendell McKines (18 ppg & 10 rpg), who is comfy on the blocks or creating shots from the perimeter, and highlight-reel 6-2 Canadian frosh Daniel Mullings, a high-wire act who made the midseason departure of shooting G Christian Kabongo much easier to ******. The Ags start three seniors and a junior and also have a heady PG in sr. Hernst Laroche, another Canadian (via Montreal, French accent and all), who steadies the troops. One of the best-rebounding teams in the country (+9 rebound margin pg) and almost impossible to keep off the glass, with McKines, 6-11 Hamidu Rahman, 6-10 Tshilidzi Nephawe (via Johannesburg, South Africa) and 6-8 Bandja Sy (via Cergy, France), all capable of frightening dunks as well. But it's their voracious rebounding that intimidates. "Missed shots are like assists for them," said Hawaii HC Gib Arnold at last week's WAC Tourney. "We tried every scheme in the book to keep them off the glass, and nothing worked," said La Tech HC Michael White after losing the tourney finale by an 82-57 score. "No team in the league could keep them off the boards." Indiana has been forewarned.

Montana...The last time HC Wayne Tinkle brought his Grizzlies to the Dance, they almost pulled a major upset over New Mexico two years ago. Now they're back and confident again, led by explosive G Will Cherry, who hails from legendary McClymonds High in Oakland, prep home to the likes of Bill Russell, Frank Robinson, Paul Silas, Vada Pinson, Curt Flood, Jumpin' Joe Ellis, and 1968 Olympic 100-meter champion Jimmy Hines. Cherry (16 ppg) and 6-5 swingman Kareem Jamar (14 ppg) are a potent and versatile combo on the perimeter, and Tinkle even has a post presence in 7-0 C Derek Selvig. Beat Long Beach State at Missoula in December and enters the Dance on a 14-game win streak and winner of 20 of its last 21.

Detroit...With enough athletes to match up with almost any team in the field, the Titans are not your usual 15th-seeded entry. UD struggled early in the season as its frontline was depleted by the suspension of 6-10 former Indiana transfer C Eli Holman and season-ending knee injury to PF Nick Minnerath. In the interim, HC Ray McCallum introduced a zone defense to the mix, and Holman would return in mid-December, still coming off the bench but playing starter's minutes most nights. A potent backcourt led by coach Ray's son, "Little Ray" McCallum (15.6 ppg; could have attended any school he wished but chose to play for Pop at UD) and Chase Simon (13.5 ppg), can cause problems for a variety of foes. Nice personnel mix that seemed to gel in the recent Horizon Tourney when beating host Valpo, 70-50, in the finale. Kansas, which has lost to less-accomplished lower seeds in the past, is forewarned against Dick Vitale's former team (the court at Calhian Hall, by the way, is named after Dickie V).

Stay tuned...

**StarDust Bum** · 03-13-2012, 06:22 PM

Vegas ready for the Madness

March 12, 2012

One week removed from a busy NASCAR weekend that also includes two college basketball conference tournaments, Las Vegas is at it again this week with another dynamic weekend offered to the public that no other city in the world can come close to matching.
It’s the first weekend of the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament where a segment of America travels from all corners the country to convene in their favorite sports book and let it all hang out.

“The first four days combine to create the second biggest weekend of the year for us,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “I like to compare each of the four days of action to having four consecutive NFL Sunday’s.”

Beyond the gambling, the tournament has always held a special place in the hearts of fans everywhere and Las Vegas always brings out its best in shining fashion because of the massive crowds everywhere.

“The tournament encompasses the entire country and reaches out to almost everyone,” said LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay. “Whether you gamble or not, almost everyone has an opinion or interest in it one way or another whether being affiliated with the state a certain school is at or just filing out a bracket in an office pool.

“What’s truly amazing about it is that it’s one of the few events that are bigger at the beginning than at the end when the champion is ultimately crowned.”

That excitement and interest translates to massive four day revenues, not just in the sports book, but all casino games, restaurants, bars and hotel occupancy.

The excitement isn’t just reserved for all of our wonderful visitors, either. Here in Las Vegas, the UNLV Rebels always create a buzz in the city with locals hoping to recreate some of the magic from the Jerry Tarkanian glory years.

“We’re expecting huge crowds at all of our properties for the Thursday night UNLV game,” said McCormick. ”We got a perfect 6:50 pm (PDT) start time for us that will maximize the amount of people who want to watch the game with fellow Rebel fans and should help drive business everywhere in the casino before and after the game.”

With so many visitors expected for the weekend just about every casino will offer special accommodations that allow everyone to watch the game comfortably. Places like Station Casinos, Coast Resorts, The South Point, Golden Nugget and the LVH are all opening up their showrooms in addition to having the games on in or near the pit to keep those who want to play black jack updated on what’s going on.

Cantor Gaming sports books will also be jumping with excitement in special locations at the Palms, the Joint at the Hard Rock and M Resort, not to mention the always entertaining and visual pleasing Legasse’s Stadium at the Venetian.

To ensure guests come back for the second, third and fourth day of the tournament, some sports books are offering food and drink specials along with contests.

“Beginning Tuesday all of our (Station) books will be offering $1 Buds and Hot Dogs through the tournament while games are being played, “said McCormick.

Beers for $1 always go over well and in a day that never seems to end like Thursday and Friday where the drinking starts early, keeping your drinking money on the cheap is a good idea. And of course, if you’re playing the games, be sure to get your free drink tickets when wagering.

Lucky’s sports books, the Riviera, LeRoy’s and Station Casinos are all offering great contests with a minimal entry fee to further add to the Las Vegas March Madness experience.

Perhaps the biggest and most successful contest over the last decade has been Station Casinos ’Last Man Standing’ which requires each contestant to pick one game against the spread a day. Win your pick and advance to the next day until there is one man, or woman, standing at the end. The entry fee is $25 and if you buy four, you get one free. They are guaranteeing $40,000 to the winner. Last year the pool rose to $49,200.

So who do the sports books ultimately want to come out of the NCAA Tournament that will maximize action through the betting windows? Is it better to a have Cinderella from a mid-major conference capture the fancy of everyone’s imagination or is it better for the house if all the heavyweight ranked teams advance through the field.

“It benefits our business if we have the name recognition,” said Lucky‘s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro. “If we could get all No. 1 or No. 2 seeds into the Final Four, that would be ideal and attract the most action."

We’ll find out who those Final Four teams are in a few weeks, but as for now, let the excitement begin.

My weekend will include stays at several different locations beginning Thursday at the South Point where they have .75 cent hot dogs every day. Friday, I will be at the Wildfire on Sunset taking in some of those $1 Buds. Saturday's a tough one because of St Patrick's day which will have me bouncing around from McMullen's Pub to the Orleans all day and likely ending up at New York-New York's Nine Fine Irishmen. On Sunday, I'll experience downtown at the Golden Nugget, Plaza and El Cortez. The El Cortez is a Station book which also has the $1 Bud special.

Enjoy the city and keep the word of mouth spreading news of what a great place Vegas is for the tournament. The more people that come, the merrier it will be.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-13-2012, 06:24 PM

Travel Trouble

March 13, 2012

They may not know it yet, but whoever gets through Wednesday's Vermont/Lamar first round game will find that they have a few thousand more fans at the Greensboro Coliseum on Friday.

Dressed in dark blue with a big D plastered somewhere on their bodies, Duke fans will be rooting vigorously for the Catamounts or Cardinals against hated rival North Carolina once they're done with Lehigh. Consider it one of the quirks among the venue chatter at this year's NCAA Tournament.

When the ‘Heels and Blue Devils last split regional play in nearby Greensboro back in 2009, the team that played last had to deal with the other's fans that remained attendance to get their money's worth. The decks are stacked against anyone not named Duke or North Carolina in the city that's hosted the most ACC Tournaments, but every little bit helps.

The Creighton/Alabama survivor has the same boost to look forward too, provided the Blue Devils advance on Sunday.

That said, it's not like the Tar Heels would trade the built-in homecourt edge playing in their backyard offers. In an elimination format, every edge gained by traveling less or having more fans in your corner is invaluable.

“The closer to home, the better served you are,” San Diego State coach Steve Fisher told the San Diego Union-Tribune of his meeting with N.C. State in Columbus. “In a perfect world, it would have been Portland or Albuquerque.”

Instead, the Aztecs are one of eight schools that find themselves over 1,800 miles from home when tipping off action at the NCAA Tournament.

California is up first, 2,000 miles from First Four action against South Florida in Dayton.

Reigning Cinderella VCU finds itself furthest from home, exactly 2,373 miles from Portland, where it’s scheduled to do battle with Wichita State.

That bests Davidson's odyssey to the Rose Garden by less than 100 miles, where they take on displaced cousin Louisville. Make a note that this will be the first game that tips from Portland on Thursday, which starts at 10:40 a.m. PT.

Albuquerque-bound Harvard is playing nearly 2,000 miles from Cambridge.

Seeding a tournament is complicated, so when you add venues to the equation, it's expected some things will fall through the cracks. This committee did a solid job of avoiding many of the glaring errors recent facilitators have committed, but there are a few injustices. Double-digits seeds like Cal, VCU, Harvard and Davidson being forced to travel to far away destinations is just a price they pay for being part of the show.

Needlessly putting obstacles in front of higher seeds that have earned the right at a fair shake in this tournament seems to be an annual talking point. This year's victims are Gonzaga, San Diego State, Indiana and Louisville, forced to trek nearly 2,000 miles a piece to face double-digit seeds that are closer to home.

Nowhere is that more egregious than for the Zags and Aztecs, heading East for what are essentially road games. Understanding neither won their conference tournaments, it's still a strange sight that the selection committee put them in games against teams in their own backyards.

Pittsburgh and West Virginia literally compete in the Backyard Brawl. Thanks to their good fortune, Mountaineers fans can cross the border and support their 10th-seeded basketball team against Gonzaga. Yes, (West) Virginia, there is an East coast bias.

Mark Few took the high road, stating something about all tournaments carrying unique challenges, but the Bulldogs coach should rightfully be seething. In what's expected to be a physical game featuring many massive frames, there will only be one side clamoring for calls.

San Diego State travels just short of 2,000 miles to reach Columbus, where N.C. State awaits. Wolfpack nation can hop in their campers, pull off speeds slightly above the speed limit and make it to Nationwide Arena inside of six hours.

Not surprisingly, both Gonzaga and SDSU opened as underdogs.

Indiana squares off against WAC champion New Mexico State, a No. 13 seed that has many key players still around from the team that nearly upset Michigan State in the 2010 Tournament. The Hoosiers haven't been dancing since 2008, so it's wholly unfair that the dream season that has landed this first appearance under Tom Crean was met with such a heartless reward. It certainly makes the Aggies a live dog candidate, not to mention favoring No. 5-seed Wichita State in terms of proximity should the teams meet in Round 3. Fortunately, Hoosier nation travels well, so they'll still be able to count on looking up and seeing plenty of Crimson and Cream.

Louisville is in that same boat, since Cardinals fans would venture to Shanghai if a big game called for it. Still, it's curious that they would potentially face No. 5 seed New Mexico at the Rose Garden. What's the point of being the No. 4 seed if the other school has the advantage?

Duke and North Carolina got the expected Greensboro treatment, but while UNC gets a potential road regional final against KU, the Blue Devils, losers of the most recent winner-take-ACC game between the Tobacco Road rivals, got the better landing spot. If it handles business in-state, Duke is headed for ACC-friendly Atlanta, site of the 2012 conference tournament.

Teams that were rightfully rewarded include No. 1 overall seed Kentucky attempting to advance through Louisville and Atlanta and No. 2 overall seed Syracuse drawing Pittsburgh and Boston, the same path as Ohio State. Kansas and Missouri both start in Omaha, but only the Jayhawks get to move on through St. Louis. That seems just, since the Jayhawks rolled through the Big 12 with a 16-2 mark in spite of getting bounced early in the conference tournament. Another league school, Baylor, is anchored as the favorite in Albuquerque, which seems fair given its body of work.

The committee also championed the little guy in one instance, putting top mid-major Murray State in Louisville. No. 3 seed Marquette may not like what it sees if both schools advance to Saturday's third round, but as the only team to carry a single loss into the tournament, the Racers earned their break.

Oddsmakers will have a difficult time picking a favorite in that potential clash.

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