The Bum's Sunday's Best Bets NCAAB - NBA - NHL !

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 4

Michigan State (+9) held Ohio State to 26.4% from floor, 2-13 from arc in 68-58 upset win Feb 11; take away Sullinger's 5-12 and Ohio St shot 23.7% for game. Spartans had 7-game win streak snapped in last game at Indiana- they won/covered all eight conference home games, winning in East Lansing by 15-34-25-16-10-20-14-28 points.Buckeyes are 3-3 in last six games after pulling out 72-70 win at Northwestern, despite the Wildcats making 13-27 from arc.

Maryland (+10) got crushed 71-44 at Virginia Feb 18, shooting 26.9% in game that was amazingly tied at half; Terps are 5-2 SU at home in ACC games, covering last four, but they've lost three of last four overall, with three of the four losses by 18+ points. Maryland is 5-5 as an underdog in league games, 2-1 at home. Cavaliers are 3-5 in last eight games, losing last two games by 3 points each; they're 2-3 in last five road games, with two wins by combined total of three points.

MVC tournament
Illinois State stunned top-seeded Wichita State 65-64 yesterday in very physical game, after being down 13 in first half; Redbirds held Wichita to 34.9% for game, but played only seven guys, two of whom played 37+ minutes. Creighton beat ISU twice this season, 87-78 (-3) in Normal Jan 13, then 102-74 (-12) at home Feb 1, when Bluejays made 13-25 on arc. Jays made 12-23 from arc yesterday in easy win over Evansville, a win that avenged an earlier loss to the Purple Aces.

CAA tournament
Drexel (+2.5) won 73-72 at Old Dominion 8 days ago, in only meeting between two teams this year; Dragons made 10-23 from arc, Monarchs just 3-18. Drexel played only seven guys in yesterday's 59-47 win over NC-Wilmington, with three starters playing 34+ minutes. OSU had two guys play more than 25 minutes. Tournament is in Richmond, so ODU will have crowd edge here. Drexel has won 18 games in row, last losing January 2 at Georgia State.

MAAC tournament
Iona beat Fairfield twice this season, 71-62 (-2) on road Jan 27, 77-72 at home (-7.5) nine days ago; Gaels pulled away from Marist yesterday in game they led by only a hoop at half- they played three starters 34:00+. Stags had tense 65-63 win over 13-19 Rider yesterday- they used three starters 32+ minutes. Iona won its last four games, with three of the four by 9+ points. These teams were losers of last two MAAC tournaments; Iona last won this event six years ago.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 4

Update

CAA tournament
Home side won both VCU-George Mason games this year; Patriots won first meeting 62-61 (-1) Feb 14, then got whacked 77-59 (+7) nine days ago at VCU. Mason had tough win over Georgia State last night, a game they trailed by 5 at half, but none of its guy played 30+ minutes. VCU forced 25 Northeastern turnovers last night in 10-point win, even though Rams were just 14-31 from foul line in game that was tied at half. Rams are 15-1 in last 16 games, with that loss at Mason the only setback.

MAAC tournament
Gutty Siena ruined Manhattan's season last night with OT win, despite playing only six guys the whole 45:00; all six guys played 35+ minutes, hard to think they won't be fatigued in day game here, vs Loyola squad that beat them twice this season, 66-59 (-3) in Albany Dec 3, then again 66-55 (-10) at home Jan 19. Greyhounds shot 63% from floor, made 23 of 29 from foul line in last night's 86-73 win over Niagara, game that was tied at half. Siena covered five of last eight games as an underdog.

Sun Belt tournament
North Texas is 13-3 in this tournament last five years, losing in final LY after winning it year before; they're favored to win here despite losing to UL-Lafayette twice during season, 64-62 (+5) in Lafayette Jan 25, then 57-53 (-6) at home Feb 18. Ragin' Cajuns haven't won Sun Belt tourney game in six years; they're 2-3 in last five games overall, with only wins by 3-4 points. ULL is 3-3 vs spread as an underdog. North Texas is 3-4 in last seven games, but covered five of last six games when favored.

South Alabama won five of last six games, but hard to prepare for unique Denver/Princeton offense in less than a day; Jaguars (+4) lost 67-50 back on Jan 7 at home to Denver, when USA turned ball over 20 times and hit only 2-8 from arc. Pioneers won last four games, all by 12+ points- they are 4-1 last five times they played inthis round. Jaguars hit 9-16 from arc, outscored Troy 24-12 on foul line in yesterday's win where three guys played 31+ minutes.

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NHL Best Bets:


03/04/2012 @ 12:05 PM

NHL

[4] NY ISLANDERS 2.20



03/04/2012 @ 01:05 PM

NHL

[5] CHICAGO 2.40



03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NHL

[8] TOTAL u5 2.00
(DALLAS vrs CALGARY)



03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NHL

[10] TOTAL u5½ 1.77
(OTTAWA vrs FLORIDA)



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NHL

[12] TOTAL u5½ 2.05
(PHILADELPHIA vrs WASHINGTON)



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NHL

[13] COLORADO 1.91

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Late NBA & NCAAB Best Bets:


03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NBA

[806] CHARLOTTE +4½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NBA

[807] GOLDEN STATE +1 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NBA

[811] CHICAGO -4 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NBA

[812] TOTAL u180½ 1.91
(CHICAGO vrs PHILADELPHIA)



03/04/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[834] INDIANA U -6 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:15 PM

CBB

[846] TOTAL u131½ 1.91
(NORTH TEXAS vrs UL LAFAYETTE)



03/04/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[868] TOTAL u154 1.91
(QUINNIPIAC vrs LONG ISLAND)



03/04/2012 @ 02:00 PM

CBB

[870] TOTAL u129½ 1.91
(ALBANY NY vrs STONY BROOK)



03/04/2012 @ 04:30 PM

CBB

[872] VERMONT -9½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:00 PM

CBB

[874] WESTERN ILLINOI +3 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 06:30 PM

CBB

[876] TOTAL u141½ 1.91
(SOUTHERN UTAH vrs OAKLAND)

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Sunday Tips

March 3, 2012


The Sunday NBA card is a busy one throughout the day and night, highlighted by the Heat and Lakers at Staples Center. Later on, the Clippers battle the Rockets at the Toyota Center, while the 76ers and Bulls hook up in Philadelphia. We'll start with the stars meeting up in Southern California.

Heat at Lakers - 3:30 PM EST

There will be no shortage of star-power on Sunday afternoon when Miami concludes its three road-game road swing at Los Angeles. Miami's nine-game winning streak came to a halt in Friday's 99-98 defeat at Utah as Devin Harris' three-point play in the final seconds gave the Jazz the lead for good. The Lakers have won consecutive home games, coming off victories over the Wolves and Kings.

Before we look back at the previous meeting between the Heat and Lakers, many people will remember last weekend's All-Star game in Orlando. Dwyane Wade fouled Kobe Bryant from behind, breaking Bryant's nose and giving the Lakers' star a mild concussion. Bryant didn't skip a beat in his first game back after the break (both his nose and the All-Star game) as he donned a mask, while scoring 31 points in a 104-85 rout of Minnesota as seven-point favorites.

The last time these two teams met in South Florida in January, the Heat cruised past the Lakers, 98-87 as 5 ½-point 'chalk.' Los Angeles scored just 37 first-half points, while shooting 42% from the floor. LeBron James put in a game-high 31 points, as the Heat played without Wade, who sat out the contest due to a sprained right ankle. The victory was the fourth straight in the series for the Heat, while Miami goes for a second consecutive win at Staples Center after beating the Lakers on Christmas last season.

Miami owns a 10-4 ATS record the last 14 games, including a 7-2 ATS mark as a road favorite. The Lakers are 5-3 ATS the previous eight contests, while putting together a 6-1 ATS ledger the last seven games at Staples Center.

Clippers at Rockets - 7:05 PM EST

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Los Angeles continues a six-game road swing after splitting the first two games at Sacramento and Phoenix. The Clippers look to get back on the winning track as they head to the Toyota Center to take on a Rockets' club off consecutive losses to Utah and Denver. Houston owns a solid 15-5 record at home, even though the Rockets were tripped up as 3 ½-point favorites against a banged-up Nuggets' squad on Friday.

The Clippers' defense played very well for most of Friday's game at Phoenix, but the Suns overcame an 11-point deficit to beat Los Angeles as 2 ½-point home 'dogs, 81-78. L.A. has been a solid team off a loss this season, posting a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record when suffering a defeat in its last game. Los Angeles dominated Houston in its first meeting of the season on January 4, a 117-89 rout at Staples Center.

The Rockets have turned into a potential playoff squad in the Western Conference with a 21-16 record, while not losing more than two straight games since January 7. Houston is riding a two-game skid, as Kevin McHale's squad has scored less than 100 points in nine of its previous 11 games. The Rockets own a sterling 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU mark at home coming off a loss, with the lone straight-up defeat coming to the Thunder in early January.

Bulls at 76ers - 7:05 PM EST

Chicago became the first team to 30 wins in the Eastern Conference following Friday's blowout of Cleveland as 10-point road 'dogs. The Bulls head to the Wells Fargo Center with revenge on their minds after getting worked by the Sixers, 98-82 in early February. Philadelphia bounced back from Wednesday's defeat to Oklahoma City by dominating Golden State on Friday, 105-83.

In their last meeting, five Sixers scored in double-figures, while Chicago was limited to 11 points in the third quarter of the 16-point defeat. Philadelphia owns 22 victories on the season, but just seven of them are against above .500 opponents, including the victory over Chicago. Since that loss, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS away from the United Center, including five of those covers in the favorite role.

The Bulls are in the midst of a five-game winning streak, the fifth hot streak of at least four consecutive victories this season. Chicago has done most of its damage as a double-digit favorite recently, but owns just a 5-5 ATS record the last 10 games when laying single-digits. The Sixers have taken each of the previous three meetings in the series, all in the underdog role.

Nuggets at Spurs - 9:35 PM EST

San Antonio isn't going away anytime soon in the Western Conference, as the Spurs go for their 14th win in 17 games on Sunday against the Nuggets. Denver is playing without its top two players in Danilo Gallinari and Nene, but the Nuggets have cashed seven of their past 10 games, including Friday's road 'dog win at Houston.

The Nuggets began the season at 14-5, but George Karl's club is just 6-12 the last 18 games during this injury-riddling stretch. Denver is 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS since rallying to beat the Clippers at Staples Center on January 2. However, the Nuggets are doing damage in the role of an underdog by cashing in five of their last seven games when receiving points.

One of those losses came at home to San Antonio prior to the All-Star break, a 114-99 setback at the Pepsi Center as 3 ½-point 'dogs. That victory by the Spurs wrapped up an 8-1 "Rodeo Road Trip" and a 12-1 stretch since late January. San Antonio is one of four teams in the league with two home losses, as their second home defeat came to Chicago on Wednesday. The Spurs have dominated this series by winning seven of the last eight meetings with the Nuggets, including three straight victories at the AT&T Center.

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Hoop Trends - Sunday

March 4, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nets are 0-14 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since November 17, 2009 after a game where they were not 8+ point dogs in which they had more turnovers than assists but less than 23 assists.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Celtics are 0-12 OU (-10.1 ppg) since November 01, 2009 after a double digit home win in which they had at least thirty assists.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Suns are 13-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 15, 2007 after winning the previous matchup in which Steve Nash shot worse than 33% from the field.

CHOICE TREND:

The Rockets are 12-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since February 14, 2011 at home after a loss in which Luis Scola was not the Rockets’ high scorer.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Bobcats are 0-11 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since December 21, 2010 at home after a loss on the road in which Gerald Henderson was not the Bobcats’ high scorer.

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MSU tries to clinch Big Ten title vs. OSU Sunday

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (24-6, 12-5 Big Ten)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (24-6, 13-4 Big Ten)


Tip-off: Sunday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -3, Total: 128½

The Big Ten regular-season title is up for grabs when No. 10 Ohio State (12-5 in Big Ten) visits No. 5 Michigan State (13-4 in Big Ten) on Sunday afternoon.

MSU has been unbeatable in East Lansing (17-0 SU), going 11-3 ATS (79%) and allowing just 56.5 PPG at home. OSU is just 6-4 SU (4-6 ATS) on the road and is 1-5-1 in its past seven games overall. That includes scoring a humiliating 48 points on national television against the visiting Spartans on Feb. 11. But that was the first time the Buckeyes lost in the past four games of this series, winning the previous three meetings handily by 12, 7 and 10 points. Which Big Ten powerhouse will emerge victorious on Sunday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekend 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is 11-7 ATS (61%) in its past three installments.

Ohio State’s offense was completely stymied in its 58-48 home loss to MSU on Feb. 11. OSU shot 26% from the floor, including 2-of-15 from downtown. The team’s top three scorers, Jared Sullinger (17.0 PPG), Deshaun Thomas (15.2 PPG) and William Buford (14.8 PPG) combined to shoot 9-of-39 (23%) against the Spartans. But fortunately for the Buckeyes, Sullinger’s slump appears to be over after he dominated at Northwestern Wednesday, scoring 22 points and grabbing 18 rebounds in a tight, 75-73 win. Thomas also tallied a double-double in that victory with 19 points and 10 boards. But the struggles continue for Buford, who had just six points on 3-of-10 shooting versus the Wildcats. He has been the biggest culprit during OSU’s three February losses, scoring just 8.3 PPG on 26% FG in the three defeats. But he has also been key to three big February wins, scoring 29, 24 and 17 points during victories over Purdue, at Minnesota and at Illinois. Buford’s performance will go a long way to determining how OSU will fare on Sunday. This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Buckeyes to pull off the upset on Sunday.

Tom Izzo is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 65.9, OPPONENT 72.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Michigan State’s 24-6 (18-9 ATS) season has been remarkable considering only two players average double-figure scoring. Senior PF Draymond Green (16.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to carry this team on his back, and his emotions will certainly be running high on senior night in East Lansing. Although he was bottled up for 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting in Columbus, Green has scored at least 17 points in five games since, averaging 21.2 PPG and 8.6 RPG during this stretch. He scored 29 of his team’s 55 points in Tuesday’s lackluster 70-55 loss in Bloomington. Sophomore PG Keith Appling (11.5 PPG, 3.8 APG) is the other double-digit scorer for Michigan State, but he has not shot the ball well all season at 42.6% FG and 23.8% 3-pt FG. Although Appling scored 14 points in the win at OSU, he also committed seven turnovers and had zero assists in his 29 minutes of action. One player that really stepped up versus the Buckeyes was C Adreian Payne (6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) who had 15 points on 6-of-6 shooting, and did a nice job helping frustrate Sullinger into a whopping 10 turnovers. The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the Spartans:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN STATE) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. (72-33 since 1997.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*).