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Sunday's Slate

March 4, 2012


Gamblers have two huge games between ranked teams Sunday, in addition to a plethora of pivotal games between mid-majors in their respective conference tournaments. Let’s take a look…

**Kentucky at Florida**

--Florida doesn’t want to take a three-game losing streak into the SEC Tournament next weekend in New Orleans. But with back-to-back losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt, that’s exactly what will happen unless the Gators surprise top-ranked Kentucky at noon Eastern on Sunday afternoon in Gainesville. Most books opened UK as a four-point road favorite with a total of 141. UF is plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

--Kentucky (29-1 straight up, 11-17-1 against the spread) is gunning for an undefeated season in SEC play for the first time since it pulled the same trick in 2003. The Wildcats haven’t tasted defeat since a buzzer-beating loss at Indiana on Dec. 10. They are beating SEC foes by an average margin of 16.5 points per game.

--Florida (22-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) lost a 77-66 decision Tuesday at Vanderbilt as a 3 ½-point underdog. The Gators fought hard for 40 minutes and the final was a tad misleading. In other words, it wasn’t the lethargic effort they had in a 76-62 loss last Saturday at Georgia. Ervin Walker, who was called out by Billy Donovan following the setback in Athens, responded with 15 points, five rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. Bradley Beal scored a team-high 16 points and Kenny Boynton was also in double figures with 11 points.

Kentucky freshman center Anthony Davis is the catalyst for this ultra-talented squad. Davis is averaging 14.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.7 blocks a game, but those numbers don’t even do him justice. His defensive impact can’t be measured in a box score because he changes everything about how an offense goes about its business.

--Billy Donovan’s squad has won 16 of its 17 home games but it is just 5-6-1 ATS. Walker will be making his last appearance in the O-Dome. The point guard is the team’s lone senior. He’s currently ranked fourth in school history in scoring and first in assists. However, I rank Walker as the third-best PG in school history behind Andrew Moten (1984-1987) and Taurean Green (2005-2007).

--When these SEC rivals met at Rupp Arena on Feb. 7, it was all UK in a 78-58 win as a nine-point home favorite. Davis had 16 points and four blocked shots, while Doron Lamb scored a game-high 18 points. The ‘Cats buried 9-of-15 attempts from 3-point range.

--Florida is 0-for-8 against Kentucky when the ‘Cats are ranked No. 1 in the country.

--The ‘over’ is 16-9 overall for UF, 8-4 in its home games.

--The ‘under’ is 16-11-2 overall for UK, but the ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in its last four games.

--CBS will have the telecast at noon Eastern.

**Ohio State at Michigan State**

--As of early this morning, most betting shops had Michigan St. (24-6 SU, 18-9 ATS) installed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 128 ½.

--Ohio St. (24-6 SU, 14-11 ATS) had lost three of its last five games before squeaking past Northwestern 75-73 on Wednesday thanks to Jared Sullinger’s last-second bucket. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes failed to cover the number as 7 ½-point road favorites and are mired in a 2-5 ATS slump. Sullinger finished with 22 points and 18 rebounds against the Wildcats, and Deshaun Thomas also had a double-double with 19 points and 10 boards.

--Tom Izzo’s team saw its seven-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 70-55 loss at Indiana as a 2 ½-point favorite. The 125 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 137-point total. Green was the only Spartan to score in double figures with 29 points and eight rebounds.

--Michigan St. is unbeaten in 17 home games with a lucrative 11-3 spread record at Breslin Center.

--Ohio St. has only been an underdog once, losing 78-67 at Kansas as a 1 ½-point hound with Sullinger in street clothes due to an injury.

--When these Big Ten rivals met on Feb. 11, Michigan St. captured a 58-48 win at Ohio St. as an 8 ½-point underdog. Adriene Payne scored 15 points and Keith Appling added 14 for the winners. Draymond Green chipped in with 12 points and nine rebounds.

--The ‘under’ is 14-12-1 overall for Michigan St., but the ‘over’ is 8-6 in its home games.

--The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for OSU to improve to 13-10-2 overall.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--FSU is a seven-point home favorite vs. Clemson in a noon Eastern tip on ESPN2. The total was 124 as of late last night.

--I’ve been hyping this Tennessee squad in this space for a few weeks now. While nobody has had the Volunteers on the bubble radar, they’re clearly in it following Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt. If UK beats UF today, Tennessee will finish second in the SEC with a 10-6 record. The Vols own the tiebreaker over Vandy and Florida.

--Indiana is a six-point home favorite tonight vs. Purdue. The Big Ten Network will have television coverage at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. As of early this morning, the total was 146.

[StarDust Bum]

March Madness Notes

March 2, 2012

Three sleeper picks to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament

Cinderella is never sleeping when the Big Dance comes around every March. Small programs like Butler, Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason have advanced to the Final Four in the last six years, so why not another?

Identifying and betting on a few sleeper teams, or Cinderella squads, is a fun and often profitable way to approach March Madness wagering. Had you put $100 on VCU to win the Southwest Region last season, you would have cashed out almost two grand.

Below, we identify a trio of "sleeper" teams that won't carry high tournament seeds but could make some noise in the latter stages of March Madness.

Memphis Tigers - Once a perennial contender when John Calipari broke every NCAA recruiting law in the book, the Tigers aren't even the unquestioned top team in Conference USA anymore. Memphis does carry a league-best 11-3 mark, but programs like Southern Miss and Tulsa have jumped into elite status as well. What we like about this year's squad is that seven of the nine players from the team that made the Big Dance last year are back, including four starters.

The Tigers played Arizona in the first round of the tourney and nearly upset the Wildcats (who made it all the way to the Elite Eight) as 5.5-point underdogs, losing 77-75. Will Barton has emerged as a stud in college basketball and will be a tough challenge for any defender to contain.

California Golden Bears - Some don't think the Pac-12 even deserves a conference-winner bid this season because it's so down. But Mike Montgomery has a beast of a squad in Berkeley. Cal has only dropped one game at home this year and is the only profitable Pac-12 team from a wagering standpoint, going 16-12 ATS.

The Bears won't beat you with jumpers but they are evenly balanced on both sides of the ball, and equilibrium can go a long way in the NCAA Tournament. If you recall, last year everyone was bad-mouthing the Pac-12 teams in the tourney but Washington beat Georgia in the first round and Arizona pulled off one upset after another on its way to the Elite Eight. Don't put the Bears in auto-hibernation come March.

Gonzaga Bulldogs - Gonzaga is the first team that really earned the title of "Cinderella." But once the Bulldogs started advancing to the tournament year after year, and often deep into it, that title was cast aside and they were viewed as legitimate contenders. St. Mary's has become the new trendy pick out of the West Coast Conference but don't sleep on the Zags.

They have a long team with two future NBAers in the 7-foot Robert Sacre and the 6-foot-7 Elias Harris. These two terrorizing frontcourt members, along with 6-foot-9 sixth man Sam Dower, don't allow many second-chance opportunities for opponents. The defense has been strong all season, evidenced by a 7-20-1 over/under record. Mark Few understands how to get the most out of his players come March.

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Kentucky and Syracuse likely top seeds in NCAA Tournament

With just one blemish on their regular season records, Kentucky and Syracuse will almost certainly claim the top two seeds in the NCAA Tournament. That honor comes with inflated spreads for the first few rounds of the Big Dance. Both the Wildcats and Orange will be no less than 17-point favorites in their first tournament game.

BookMaker sportsbook will offer a multitude of online avenues for March Madness betting including futures wagers, individual matchups and game props. Kentucky and Syracuse are far and away the top teams in the country. Even if one of them slips up early in their respective conference tourneys, the NCAA committee should still select them as a No. 1 seed.

The Wildcats have been voted as the No. 1 team in the nation by the pollsters six straight weeks. They haven't dropped a game at Rupp Arena all season, but haven't been a good team to bet on at home, going just 4-12-1 against the spread there. John Calipari's club finishes out the regular season with a home game against Georgia on Thursday and then a roadie at Florida on Sunday. Kentucky has a 1-6 over/under record on the road this year.

Syracuse hasn't lost at the Carrier Dome and will wrap up the regular season at home on Saturday versus Louisville. The Orange's suffocating zone defense has been sharp on their home floor, helping produce a 6-10-1 over/under mark there.

Kansas won seven games in a row, including Monday's victory at Oklahoma State, to clinch the outright Big 12 title and likely a NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks battled from 19 down in the second half Saturday to defeat Mizzou -- the same team that handed them their last loss on February 4. Bill Self has mentioned the immaturity of his young team at times, and inexperience isn't always a good thing during March Madness. Kansas hasn't cashed a single over in a road game this year.

The final top seed for the Big Dance is likely to be Michigan State. If the Spartans beat Ohio State in the regular season finale at home, where they are 11-3 ATS, they will win the Big Ten title.

MSU started the season unranked and then lost its first two games to North Carolina and Duke. But this program always seems to peak at the right time. No matter what state they enter the tourney in; Tom Izzo always has his Sparties ready to play come March.

If Duke wins the ACC tournament then it would make a strong case to the committee for a No. 1 bid.

Ohio State, an early favorite to win the national championship, has lost three of its last five games overall. If the Buckeyes can't win their conference tournament then they will look more like a No. 2 or 3 seed in the betting brackets rather than a No. 1.

The month of March generates a firestorm of madness for college basketball fans across the nation. BookMaker has March Madness betting odds for every game of the NCAA Tournament. You can make a futures bet and predict the national champion, wager on individual college basketball games or use BookMaker's live betting feature to wager on matchups while they're happening.

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Spartans And Buckeyes Highlight Sunday Slate

It's a Big Ten kind of Sunday afternoon as the regular season officially draws to a close on the college hardwood. All five ranked teams from the conference will be in action, with the big matchup taking place in East Lansing where the No. 5 Michigan State Spartans host No. 10 Ohio State.

At stake during the course of the day will be the top seed in next week's conference tourney at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Spartans can claim the regular season title all to themselves with a win over the Buckeyes, while an OSU victory plus a Wolverines triumph at Penn State would send the seeding to tiebreakers with a three-team deadlock at the top of the league.

The Spartans and Buckeyes get underway at Breslin Events Center a little past 4:00 p.m. (ET). No. 13 Michigan tips against the Nittany Lions at 1:00 p.m. (ET), the same time Illinois and No. 14 Wisconsin begin their clash in Madison. Wrapping things up at 6:00 p.m. (ET) will be the No. 18 Indiana Hoosiers at home vs. Purdue.

Michigan State missed its chance to grab the regular season crown this past Tuesday at Indiana. Favored by 2½ on the road, the Spartans fell 70-55 to a Hoosiers team that picked up its third win vs. a top 5 squad this season. The defeat stopped a 7-game win streak for MSU who has covered eight of its last 11 contests.

Ohio State needed just about every tick of the clock Wednesday to escape Northwestern with a win. Jared Sullinger's bucket in the final seconds helped the Buckeyes to a 75-73 win as 7½-point favorites. Thad Matta's squad enters Sunday's game with a 3-3 mark the last six, and just 1-5-1 against the spread over the past seven.

About three weeks ago in Columbus, Michigan State ended OSU's 39-game home court win streak with a 58-48 decision. The odds closed with Ohio State -8, and the Spartans' defense ruled the day in holding the Buckeyes to a season low on the scoreboard on just 14-of-53 shooting (26.4%). Michigan State's victory snapped a 3-game losing streak to Ohio State.

Michigan will try and keep its conference title hopes alive with a fourth consecutive road win. The Wolverines bounced back from a home defeat to a hot-shooting Purdue squad by taking down Illinois this past Thursday, 72-62. The victory marked Michigan's first win in Champaign since 1995, and came as a 2½-point road 'dog to the Fighting Illini.

Penn State comes in on a 3-game skid and 2-7 in its last nine. The Nittany Lions are just 4-4 at home, but 5-1-2 ATS at Jordan Center.

The Wolverines and Lions opened their Big Ten campaigns against each other back on Dec. 29 in Ann Arbor. Michigan (-10½) skated to a 71-53 win behind Tim Hardaway Jr.'s 26 points, and has triumphed its last two trips to Penn State.

Wisconsin has already sewn up the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye in next week's conference tourney. The Badgers will be seeking their first season sweep of Illinois since winning three clashes over the Illini in 2008 while extending their recent domination in the series that currently stands 9-4 in the last 13.

Bo Ryan's troops were slim 1-point favorites in Champaign on Jan. 22, coming home with a 67-63 triumph. The final skipped past the 112½-point total for the third straight 'over' between the two.

Rivals Indiana and Purdue will be squaring off for the No. 5 seed in Indianapolis when they take the floor at Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers have won six of their last seven, a stretch that started with a 78-61 upset at Purdue on Feb. 4. The Boilermakers have won five of their last six, and covered six of seven since the defeat to Indiana.

Purdue was cold as ice on the offensive end of the floor when Indiana pulled off the Feb. 4 upset as a 3½-point underdog. The Boilermakers sank just 21-of-71 field goals, 5-of-21 from 3-point range, while the Hoosiers netted two more buckets on 16 fewer shots. Indiana's victory stopped a 5-game losing streak to Purdue.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 4

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Beware of dog: Six teams with conference tournament upset potential
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Last March belonged to the UConn Huskies.

After stumbling into the postseason, losing four of their final five games, the Huskies rolled to a 97-71 win over DePaul in the opening round of the Big East tournament and never looked back. Repeating Connecticut’s improbable march to the national title is a near-impossible feat. But all great Cinderella runs have to start somewhere.

These programs may not advance beyond their first postseason matchup, but they’re perfectly capable of throwing a wrench in their respective conference tournaments. Keep an eye out for these programs with dangerous upset potential:

Big Ten: Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes are a forgotten team in the Big Ten, what with all the hoopla around Ohio State, the Michigan schools and the rebirth of Hoosiers basketball. But what a lot of college basketball bettors might not know is that Iowa is the most feared team in the league.

It’s collected two wins over Wisconsin, one against Indiana and one against Michigan. Guard Matt Gatens is a cold-blooded killer from beyond the arc and if he gets hot, there’s nothing you can do. The senior has averaged 24.6 points over his last five games.

ACC: Miami Hurricanes

The Canes’ season seemed like it was in the crapper when star big Reggie Johnson was declared ineligible last week. However, the school pushed to have him reinstated and the NCAA let him go with a slap on the wrist. Johnson is a huge part of Miami’s success – 6-foot-10 and 284 pounds of it. He leads the team in rebounding (7.0) and chips in more than 10 points per game.

The Hurricanes aren’t expected to get an at-large bid to the Big Dance, so that gives them added motivation during the ACC tournament. What really makes Miami a ticking upset bomb is the fact it has beaten some of the best in the conference, including Duke and Florida State. Miami's dismantling of B.C. on Saturday gives the Hurricanes a chance for a first-round bye in the ACC tourney.

Big 12: Kansas State Wildcats

Frank Martin already has his program primed for a spot among the lucky 68. But, if you think KSU’s mad man will be happy with that, you’ve never seen the rage in Martin’s eyes. The Wildcats are a live dog in the Big 12 tournament, and have been picking up major momentum heading into the postseason. They’ve won three of their last four, including victories over Baylor and Missouri.

Kansas State is spotty offensively, and can go ice cold from outside at times. But the Wildcats flexed their scoring muscle in a shootout with Texas A&M last week, draining 12 3-pointers against the best 3-point defense in the conference. Kansas State is still one of the better defensive programs in the country, and can keep any game close.

Big East: South Florida Bulls

The Bulls have won six of their last eight games despite Saturday's 50-44 loss to West Virginia, and have won a program-best 12 games in Big East play. South Florida may have punched its dance ticket with a 58-51 upset over Louisville on Wednesday as it proved it can hang with the conference's elite. The Bulls play lockdown defense, giving up just 57.4 points per game this season – eighth in the country.

Having earned a first-round bye in the Big East tournament, the Bulls should command the respect of college hoops bettors. South Florida has held eight straight opponents under 60 points.

Pac-12: Colorado Buffaloes

The Pac-12 is hot mess, like Lindsay Lohan or Brittany Spears. There are glimpses of past glory, but when you take a step back and breathe it all in, it stinks. That leaves room for a ton of upset potential during the Pac-12 tournament. Cal and Washington may be on top of the standings, but they’re far from sure things.

The Buffaloes, however, are the new kids on the block and have proved they belong in their new home. Their most recent victory came over the Golden Bears – by 13 points – and they’ve scored wins against Washington, Arizona and Oregon. The Buffs have terrific senior leadership that should help them bounce back from Saturday's 83-69 loss at Oregon State.

SEC: Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols could be seeded as high as No. 2 in the SEC tournament, which doesn’t make them a traditional Cinderella team. However, for a program that was left for dead after the Bruce Pearl scandal, Tennessee has been defying the odds all season. It has come to life in recent weeks, going 9-2 in its last 11 games and earning a first-round bye in the SEC tournament.

The Volunteers are still not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA, despite two wins over Florida and a tough non-conference schedule that included close losses to Duke, Memphis and Pitt. First-year head coach Cuonzo Martin should win Coach of the Year honors for even having this team in the conversation.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 4

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Game of the day: Ohio State at Michigan State
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Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-2.5, 126)

THE STORY: No. 11 Ohio State has a chance to grab a share of the Big Ten regular season title for a third consecutive year. The Buckeyes were held to 26 percent shooting in their first meeting with No. 5 Michigan State this season - a 58-48 setback on Feb. 11 that ended Ohio State's 39-game home winning streak. Saturday's game features a rematch of the league's top two frontcourt players in Ohio State sophomore Jared Sullinger and Michigan State senior Draymond Green. Sullinger committed a career-high 10 turnovers in the Feb. 11 clash.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (24-6, 12-5 Big Ten, 14-11 ATS): Outside shooting has been the biggest weak spot for the Buckeyes this season. After leading the nation in 3-point percentage last season, Ohio State is ninth in the Big Ten this year at 33.2 percent. The team's inability to spread defenses has made life tougher for Sullinger, who leads the Buckeyes with 17 points and 9.3 rebounds per game but has been held in check by double-teams in many of Ohio State's losses. Despite their recent struggles, the Buckeyes still lead the Big Ten in scoring margin at plus 16.6 and rank among the national leaders in rebounding and defensive efficiency.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (24-6, 13-4, 18-9 ATS): The Spartans have been extremely tough defensively, holding 11 straight opponents to 62 points or fewer before Tuesday's 70-55 setback at Indiana. Michigan State is second nationally in opponent field-goal percentage (37.5) and 12th in scoring defense (58.2). Green is the front-runner for Big Ten Player of the Year honors, ranking among the league's top 10 in scoring (16.1, 6th), rebounding (10.2, 1st), assists (3.6, 10th) and steals (1.5, 5th). He had 29 points in Tuesday's loss to Indiana, accounting for more than half of his team's total.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan State.
* Road team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. Michigan State leads the all-time series, 59-51 SU, and owns a 36-16 advantage in East Lansing.

2. Following its win last month in Columbus, the Spartans have a slim 5-4 edge over the Buckeyes in games where both teams come into the game nationally ranked.

3. Michigan State and Ohio State rank 1-2 in the Big Ten in rebounding margin at plus-9.2 and plus-7.6, respectively.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 4

Hot Teams
-- Boston won its last three games, but covered just once in last eight. Knicks won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Miami won nine of its last ten games (8-2 vs spread). Lakers won last seven home games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Nets won three of their last four road games.
-- Warriors are 5-1-1 vs spread in game following last seven losses.
-- Houston won six of its last eight home games.
-- Bulls won their last five games (3-1-1 vs spread).
-- Suns won four of their last five home games. Sacramento covered nine of its last eleven road games.
-- San Antonio won/covered five of its last ix home games. Nuggets covered five of their last six road games.

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost its last seven home games (1-6 vs spread).
-- Toronto lost five of last six at home, but covered six of last seven.
-- Clippers lost four of last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- 76ers lost four of their last five home games.

Back-to-Back
-- None

Wear-and-Tear
-- Knicks: Had last three nites off. Celtics: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Heat: 3rd game/4 nites. Lakers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Nets: 2nd game/3 nites. Bobcats: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 4th game/6 nites. Raptors: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Clippers: 3rd game/4 nites. Rockets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Bulls: 4th game/6 nites. 76ers: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Kings: 3rd game/4 nites. Suns: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites. Spurs: 3rd game/5 nites.

Totals
-- Under is 11-2 in New York's last 13 road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Miami's last eight road games.
-- Over is 7-2 in Charlotte's last nine home games.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto home games went over.
-- Three of last four Houton games stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Chicago road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Sacramento road games went over.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in San Antonio's last ten home games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, March 4

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NBA on ABC: What bettors need to know
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NEW YORK KNICKS at BOSTON CELTICS (-2.5, 188)

THE STORY: The New York Knicks finally showed they could beat the Boston Celtics in the season opener on Christmas Day. Now, with point guard Jeremy Lin and an upgraded supporting cast in tow, the Knicks will look to end a 12-game losing streak in Boston (postseason included) when they visit the Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The teams, which have split of pair of two-point decisions this season, currently hold the final two playoff slots in the Eastern Conference and are chasing Philadelphia in the Atlantic Division.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (18-18, 17-19 ATS): When New York lost at Boston on Feb. 3, Lin had two points in 6 1/2 minutes. One night later, he came off the bench to score 25 points and spark a seven-game win streak -- and the birth of Linsanity. The addition of J.R. Smith and return to health of Baron Davis has bolstered the Knicks' bench, which produced 50 points – including 17 from Steve Novak – in a comeback win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-17, 14-21 ATS): Boston's aging roster appears to have been invigorated by the All-Star break. The Celtics entered the break on a five-game losing streak but have come out of it by winning three straight, including a 107-94 demolition of New Jersey on Friday night. Point guard Rajon Rondo has been the subject of numerous trade rumors, but it hasn't affected his play. Rondo followed up a triple-double against Milwaukee with 14 points and 13 rebounds against the Nets.

TRENDS:

*Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
*Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
*Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
*Over is 6-0-1 in Boston's last seven home games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Celtics shooting guard Ray Allen is expected to play after missing Friday's game due to illness.

2. The Knicks are 10-3 since Lin burst onto the scene with his 25-point effort against New Jersey on Feb. 4.

3. Knicks star forward Carmelo Anthony has scored 63 points in two games against Boston this season.



MIAMI HEAT at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (2.5, 193.5)

THE STORY: Some games in the NBA do not require hype, and a meeting between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat tops that list. Still, when Los Angeles hosts Miami on Sunday, there will be an extra buzz surrounding the high-profile matchup, powered by a juicy subplot that has LeBron James playing second fiddle. The teams are squaring off exactly one week after Heat guard Dwyane Wade smacked Kobe Bryant on a drive in the All-Star Game, leaving the Lakers superstar with a concussion, broken nose and whiplash. Los Angeles also is attempting to halt a four-game losing streak at the hands of Miami.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

ABOUT THE HEAT (28-8, 19-17 ATS): Perhaps looking ahead to Sunday, Miami had its nine-game win streak halted by Utah on Friday night. The Heat had won each game by at least 12 points in the streak. James has come out of the All-Star break with a vengeance, pouring in 73 points on 63 percent shooting and grabbing 21 rebounds in the two games. James is 3-0 against the Lakers as a member of the Heat and 10-2 in his last 12 meetings against them overall.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (22-14, 17-19 ATS): The injuries sustained in the All-Star Game have forced Bryant to wear a mask, but it hasn't had an adverse effect on his play. Bryant poured in 38 points in Friday's win over Sacramento and scored 31 in Wednesday's win over Minnesota. Bryant and his teammates played down the revenge factor against Wade. "We'll do what we need to do to get a win," guard Derek Fisher said. "That's always the sweetest revenge." Lakers C Andrew Bynum has recorded eight straight double-doubles.

TRENDS:

*Heat is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.
*Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Eastern Conference teams.
*Over is 6-1 in the Lakers' last seven games.
*Heat is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Heat F Chris Bosh has missed two straight games due to the death of his grandmother. His status for Sunday's game is uncertain.

2. The Lakers have won seven straight at home and are 16-2 at the Staples Center -- the second-best home record in the league behind Oklahoma City.

3. Wade, who apologized to Bryant, is keyed up for Sunday's game. "Love it," Wade said. "My favorite matchup is to go against Kobe."

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 4

Hot teams
-- Rangers won five of their last six home games.
-- Red Wings won 24 of their last 26 home games.
-- Dallas Stars won last three road games, outscoring foes 9-2.
-- Senators won last four road games, outscoring foes 17-2.
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Avalanche won three of their last four road games.

Cold teams
-- Bruins are 3-5 in last eight road games, but 12-2 in game following their last 14 losses.
-- Islanders lost five of their last seven games. New Jersey lost four of five.
-- Chicago lost 13 of its last 16 road games.
-- Calgary lost four of its last five games.
-- Panthers lost five of their last six home games.
-- Flyers are 0-9 in game following their last nine wins.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last seven road games.

Totals
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Boston's last eleven road games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Islanders' last eight home games.
-- Detroit's last four games went over the total. Under is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games.
-- Last six Dallas road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Colorado games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Rangers won their last four games against Boston.
-- Islanders lost five of last six games against New Jersey.
-- Blackhawks won six of last nine games against Detroit.
-- Dallas Stars lost four of last five games against Calgary.
-- Senators won their last nine games against Florida.
-- Flyers lost six of last nine games with Washington.
-- Avalanche lost six of last seven games with Minnesota.

Back-to-Back
-- Bruins are 5-0 this season if they lost the day before.
-- Islanders are 0-4 at home if they played day before.
-- Florida is 4-5 if it played night before, 2-0 at home.
-- Colorado is 2-5 when it played the night before.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Tips

March 3, 2012

The Sunday NBA card is a busy one throughout the day and night, highlighted by the Heat and Lakers at Staples Center. Later on, the Clippers battle the Rockets at the Toyota Center, while the 76ers and Bulls hook up in Philadelphia. We'll start with the stars meeting up in Southern California.

Heat at Lakers - 3:30 PM EST

There will be no shortage of star-power on Sunday afternoon when Miami concludes its three road-game road swing at Los Angeles. Miami's nine-game winning streak came to a halt in Friday's 99-98 defeat at Utah as Devin Harris' three-point play in the final seconds gave the Jazz the lead for good. The Lakers have won consecutive home games, coming off victories over the Wolves and Kings.

Before we look back at the previous meeting between the Heat and Lakers, many people will remember last weekend's All-Star game in Orlando. Dwyane Wade fouled Kobe Bryant from behind, breaking Bryant's nose and giving the Lakers' star a mild concussion. Bryant didn't skip a beat in his first game back after the break (both his nose and the All-Star game) as he donned a mask, while scoring 31 points in a 104-85 rout of Minnesota as seven-point favorites.

The last time these two teams met in South Florida in January, the Heat cruised past the Lakers, 98-87 as 5 ½-point 'chalk.' Los Angeles scored just 37 first-half points, while shooting 42% from the floor. LeBron James put in a game-high 31 points, as the Heat played without Wade, who sat out the contest due to a sprained right ankle. The victory was the fourth straight in the series for the Heat, while Miami goes for a second consecutive win at Staples Center after beating the Lakers on Christmas last season.

Miami owns a 10-4 ATS record the last 14 games, including a 7-2 ATS mark as a road favorite. The Lakers are 5-3 ATS the previous eight contests, while putting together a 6-1 ATS ledger the last seven games at Staples Center.

Clippers at Rockets - 7:05 PM EST

Los Angeles continues a six-game road swing after splitting the first two games at Sacramento and Phoenix. The Clippers look to get back on the winning track as they head to the Toyota Center to take on a Rockets' club off consecutive losses to Utah and Denver. Houston owns a solid 15-5 record at home, even though the Rockets were tripped up as 3 ½-point favorites against a banged-up Nuggets' squad on Friday.

The Clippers' defense played very well for most of Friday's game at Phoenix, but the Suns overcame an 11-point deficit to beat Los Angeles as 2 ½-point home 'dogs, 81-78. L.A. has been a solid team off a loss this season, posting a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record when suffering a defeat in its last game. Los Angeles dominated Houston in its first meeting of the season on January 4, a 117-89 rout at Staples Center.

The Rockets have turned into a potential playoff squad in the Western Conference with a 21-16 record, while not losing more than two straight games since January 7. Houston is riding a two-game skid, as Kevin McHale's squad has scored less than 100 points in nine of its previous 11 games. The Rockets own a sterling 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU mark at home coming off a loss, with the lone straight-up defeat coming to the Thunder in early January.

Bulls at 76ers - 7:05 PM EST

Chicago became the first team to 30 wins in the Eastern Conference following Friday's blowout of Cleveland as 10-point road 'dogs. The Bulls head to the Wells Fargo Center with revenge on their minds after getting worked by the Sixers, 98-82 in early February. Philadelphia bounced back from Wednesday's defeat to Oklahoma City by dominating Golden State on Friday, 105-83.

In their last meeting, five Sixers scored in double-figures, while Chicago was limited to 11 points in the third quarter of the 16-point defeat. Philadelphia owns 22 victories on the season, but just seven of them are against above .500 opponents, including the victory over Chicago. Since that loss, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS away from the United Center, including five of those covers in the favorite role.

The Bulls are in the midst of a five-game winning streak, the fifth hot streak of at least four consecutive victories this season. Chicago has done most of its damage as a double-digit favorite recently, but owns just a 5-5 ATS record the last 10 games when laying single-digits. The Sixers have taken each of the previous three meetings in the series, all in the underdog role.

Nuggets at Spurs - 9:35 PM EST

San Antonio isn't going away anytime soon in the Western Conference, as the Spurs go for their 14th win in 17 games on Sunday against the Nuggets. Denver is playing without its top two players in Danilo Gallinari and Nene, but the Nuggets have cashed seven of their past 10 games, including Friday's road 'dog win at Houston.

The Nuggets began the season at 14-5, but George Karl's club is just 6-12 the last 18 games during this injury-riddling stretch. Denver is 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS since rallying to beat the Clippers at Staples Center on January 2. However, the Nuggets are doing damage in the role of an underdog by cashing in five of their last seven games when receiving points.

One of those losses came at home to San Antonio prior to the All-Star break, a 114-99 setback at the Pepsi Center as 3 ½-point 'dogs. That victory by the Spurs wrapped up an 8-1 "Rodeo Road Trip" and a 12-1 stretch since late January. San Antonio is one of four teams in the league with two home losses, as their second home defeat came to Chicago on Wednesday. The Spurs have dominated this series by winning seven of the last eight meetings with the Nuggets, including three straight victories at the AT&T Center.

[StarDust Bum]

Kobe, Lakers Try To Take Down LeBron, Heat

At the 2012 All-Star Game, the biggest stars were Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. Bryant had his nose broken and suffered a mild concussion after a hit from Wade, and James didn't take the last shot of the game with a chance to win when he had Bryant guarding him.

Now, all of these players are going to share the court as a part of a jam-packed Sunday of NBA betting action.

Many think this game between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers might be a preview of the NBA Finals. The tension in this feud has only intensified over the course of the last few days, as Bryant is still wearing a mask for his broken nose while James missed out on another chance to take the last shot in a loss against the Utah Jazz.

Miami has won four in a row in this series, including posting a 98-87 win in January in South Beach. The Heat have also covered seven in a row against the Lakers.

Tip time in Tinseltown is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET) with coverage on ABC.

Prior to that game, the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics are going to meet in a tussle of teams that are trying to make some headway in the Atlantic Division. With the Philadelphia 76ers starting to tumble just a bit, the Knicks and Celtics have to think that they are back in the division chase.

The home team has won both of these games between these teams this year SU, but the road team won from an ATS standpoint. Both games were decided by just two points.

These two Atlantic Division foes meet up at 1:00 (ET) in the first tip on Sunday afternoon.

Later in the day, the aforementioned 76ers are going to face the Chicago Bulls. Chicago became the first team in the league to win 30 games this year, and is rolling with five straight wins and a 4-1 ATS mark in its last five games.

Philly went into the All-Star break on a five-game skid, but has gone 2-1 SU and ATS against a significantly easier schedule since that point. The Sixers did win at home when these teams met in February, but Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton both sat out of the lineup in that game.

This 7:00 (ET) tip at the Wells Fargo Center can be seen on ESPN.

Sunday night's nationally televised games wrap up at 9:30 (ET) with a clash between the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets.

The underdog in this series is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, though it was only two weeks ago that the favored Spurs blew out these Nuggets 114-99 at Pepsi Arena.

These teams have both been flying all over the court offensively. Denver has averaged 103.8 PPG this year, while San Antonio has put up triple digits in seven of its last 10 games.

Three straight in this series have finished with 'over' results.

Elsewhere on Sunday, the Golden State Warriors face the Toronto Raptors at 6:00 (ET), the New Jersey Nets look to tame the Charlotte Bobcats at 6:00 (ET), the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets do battle at 7:00 (ET), and the Phoenix Suns hope to inch closer to .500 against the Sacramento Kings at 8:00 (ET).

Nine games fill the Monday night docket, including some contests which could have a big impact on the playoff races in both conferences.

The showcase game in the East pits the Bulls against the Indiana Pacers. Indiana is going to be playing at United Center for the second time this year, and the last meeting was the first loss for the Bulls at home on the campaign. This 8:00 (ET) Monday night fight can be seen on WGN and FOX Sports Indiana.

Out West, the NBA TV game of the night pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs had dropped four in a row both SU and ATS going into the weekend, and the champs have their work cut out for them on Monday for sure. The Thunder sport the West's best record, and entered the weekend having won seven in a row SU and four in a row ATS.

The tip from the Sooner State is set for 8:00 p.m. (ET).

The 7:00 (ET) tips on Monday include the Utah Jazz at the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Golden State Warriors at the Washington Wizards, and the Orlando Magic at the Toronto Raptors. At 8:00 (ET), the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Los Angeles Clippers. The Denver Nuggets take on the Sacramento Kings at 9:00 (ET), and the night wraps up with the Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Hornets from the Rose Garden at 10:00 (ET).

[StarDust Bum]

MSU tries to clinch Big Ten title vs. OSU Sunday

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (24-6, 12-5 Big Ten)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (24-6, 13-4 Big Ten)


Tip-off: Sunday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -3, Total: 128½

The Big Ten regular-season title is up for grabs when No. 10 Ohio State (12-5 in Big Ten) visits No. 5 Michigan State (13-4 in Big Ten) on Sunday afternoon.

MSU has been unbeatable in East Lansing (17-0 SU), going 11-3 ATS (79%) and allowing just 56.5 PPG at home. OSU is just 6-4 SU (4-6 ATS) on the road and is 1-5-1 in its past seven games overall. That includes scoring a humiliating 48 points on national television against the visiting Spartans on Feb. 11. But that was the first time the Buckeyes lost in the past four games of this series, winning the previous three meetings handily by 12, 7 and 10 points. Which Big Ten powerhouse will emerge victorious on Sunday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekend 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is 11-7 ATS (61%) in its past three installments.

Ohio State’s offense was completely stymied in its 58-48 home loss to MSU on Feb. 11. OSU shot 26% from the floor, including 2-of-15 from downtown. The team’s top three scorers, Jared Sullinger (17.0 PPG), Deshaun Thomas (15.2 PPG) and William Buford (14.8 PPG) combined to shoot 9-of-39 (23%) against the Spartans. But fortunately for the Buckeyes, Sullinger’s slump appears to be over after he dominated at Northwestern Wednesday, scoring 22 points and grabbing 18 rebounds in a tight, 75-73 win. Thomas also tallied a double-double in that victory with 19 points and 10 boards. But the struggles continue for Buford, who had just six points on 3-of-10 shooting versus the Wildcats. He has been the biggest culprit during OSU’s three February losses, scoring just 8.3 PPG on 26% FG in the three defeats. But he has also been key to three big February wins, scoring 29, 24 and 17 points during victories over Purdue, at Minnesota and at Illinois. Buford’s performance will go a long way to determining how OSU will fare on Sunday. This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Buckeyes to pull off the upset on Sunday.

Tom Izzo is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 65.9, OPPONENT 72.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Michigan State’s 24-6 (18-9 ATS) season has been remarkable considering only two players average double-figure scoring. Senior PF Draymond Green (16.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to carry this team on his back, and his emotions will certainly be running high on senior night in East Lansing. Although he was bottled up for 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting in Columbus, Green has scored at least 17 points in five games since, averaging 21.2 PPG and 8.6 RPG during this stretch. He scored 29 of his team’s 55 points in Tuesday’s lackluster 70-55 loss in Bloomington. Sophomore PG Keith Appling (11.5 PPG, 3.8 APG) is the other double-digit scorer for Michigan State, but he has not shot the ball well all season at 42.6% FG and 23.8% 3-pt FG. Although Appling scored 14 points in the win at OSU, he also committed seven turnovers and had zero assists in his 29 minutes of action. One player that really stepped up versus the Buckeyes was C Adreian Payne (6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) who had 15 points on 6-of-6 shooting, and did a nice job helping frustrate Sullinger into a whopping 10 turnovers. The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the Spartans:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN STATE) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. (72-33 since 1997.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Early NBA and NCAAB Best Bets:


03/04/2012 @ 10:00 AM

NBA

[801] NEW YORK PK 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 10:00 AM

NBA

[801] TOTAL o188½ 1.91
(NEW YORK vrs BOSTON)



03/04/2012 @ 12:30 PM

NBA

[804] LA LAKERS +3 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 12:30 PM

NBA

[804] TOTAL u191½ 1.91
(MIAMI vrs LA LAKERS)



03/04/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[819] TOTAL o138½ 1.91
(KENTUCKY vrs FLORIDA)



03/04/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[820] FLORIDA +5½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 11:00 AM

CBB

[852] IONA -6 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[865] TOTAL o132 1.91
(ROBERT MORRIS vrs WAGNER)



03/04/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[866] WAGNER -5½ 1.91

[StarDust Bum]

Midday Best Bets:


03/04/2012 @ 10:00 AM

CBB

[821] MICHIGAN -5½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 10:00 AM

CBB

[826] WISCONSIN -10 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 11:00 AM

CBB

[828] MARYLAND +4 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 11:00 AM

CBB

[837] OLD DOMINION +2½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 01:30 PM

CBB

[840] VA COMMONWEALTH -6½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 11:00 AM

CBB

[842] CREIGHTON -6 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[856] NC GREENSBORO +3½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[867] QUINNIPIAC +1 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 02:00 PM

CBB

[869] TOTAL o131½ 1.91
(ALBANY NY vrs STONY BROOK)

[StarDust Bum]

Rest of NBA Card Best Bets:


03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NBA

[805] NEW JERSEY -4½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 03:05 PM

NBA

[807] GOLDEN STATE +1½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NBA

[809] LA CLIPPERS +1½ 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NBA

[811] CHICAGO -4 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 04:05 PM

NBA

[812] TOTAL u181 1.91
(CHICAGO vrs PHILADELPHIA)



03/04/2012 @ 05:05 PM

NBA

[813] SACRAMENTO +6 1.91



03/04/2012 @ 06:35 PM

NBA

[816] SAN ANTONIO -6½ 1.91

[StarDust Bum]

Check back later on late afternoon and evening games.


GOOD LUCK !!