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Nice call.....
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Thanks for the Miami play Spearit!!!Comment
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No system plays today.
3-4 in March (10* 1-0)
Last night was a good win and I emphasize with system plays that have at least a 65% win history for the season, back up your losses.
Just a strategy.
Betting 110 to make 100 (or start at 55 to make 50.)
Loses Double up to 220 + 10=230
Loses Double to 460 +10=470
Now I will place a star system on the remaining games that coincide with other
models and give a better understanding of
how confident the bet should be.
Adding: (2-1)
Two games tonight that I like with the first half is New York at SA. New York is not completely at the end of its road trip but against Dallas they looked lethargic.
I believe a game against a very good home team in SA, will not help matters.
If this does not hit, I promise the third Qtr will be all SA.
SA -4 (4*)
Miami -7 (2*)
Atlanta has been hot lately but Miami gets on a roll and Wade was hurt but will play tonight. Bosh, Lebron and Wade are having fun in the first half and -7 is 3 points less than what I figure tonight.
"The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Add: Non System 1st Half Play.
2* Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers 1st Half Under 89½ -110*
Classic defensive game between these two teams. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 7-2-2 in Celtics last 11 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-2-1 in Celtics last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 3-1-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Philadelphia
Under is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 9-1 in 76ers last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1-1 in 76ers last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 11-3 in 76ers last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 21-6 in 76ers last 27 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 10-3 in 76ers last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 26-8 in 76ers last 34 games as a favorite.
Under is 21-7 in 76ers last 28 home games.
Under is 19-7 in 76ers last 26 games as a home favorite.
Under is 20-8 in 76ers last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 24-10 in 76ers last 34 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 39-18 in 76ers last 57 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 36-17 in 76ers last 53 overall.
Head to Head
Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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GlComment
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GL tonight SP!Comment
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miami -9 2nd 1/2?CBB 17-16-1Comment
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Ahh. In the case of Miami. They are the strongest first half team with Chicago second. However, Miami's second half plays are generally very avg. Against a team like Atlanta which as I stated is also hot and scoring points, I leave well enough alone. Not the case the other night when I would have played Miami in the 3rd qtr had they lost to an overmatched opponent in the first half. I can be patient and make up the loss on another 1st half play to win back the money. Being on tilt after a loss, we climb on the back of a favorite (generally) and it seems we lose 9 times out of ten. At least that is my experience. So I will point out when I make the play whether a team has an advantage of a good 3rd qtr or 2nd half, if it loses. Otherwise, hold off.
SYSTEM PLAYS 38-20.
First half Adds 2-1 on the evening.
4* San Antonio -3---------------win
2* Boston/Philly Under 89.5----win
2* Miami -7----------------------loss
Rated plays (ALL)
10* 1-0
4* 1-0
2* 1-1
1* 1-1
Thursday
ORL @ CHI (3/8)
CHICAGO HAS AVG ABOUT 5 POINTS MORE THAN ORLANDO
in home and away situations. Add tiredness to Orlando and we are just waiting to see what the line will be.
The 2nd qtr has the best advantage and is about 4 points diff in Chicago's favor.
It is 1.5 for Chicago in the 1st qtr.Last edited by Spearit; 03-08-2012, 12:22 AM. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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5* Chicago -3.5 First Half
We have Chicago, a very good first half team against Orlando.
Chicago is +6.4 point margin at home and
Orlando is -1.2 margin away.
We have 7.6 point difference and vegas has -3.5. Add the last game of a long road trip for Orlando
and seeing Chicago's thrilling victory over Milwaukee at the last second (not exactly a plus in our favor) last night
and we have a better than 64 % chance of this hitting tonight, looking at the system.
I consider this a fairly strong play
Good Luck tonight.
I am also recommending the 2nd qtr. It has the biggest difference as stated in post above. Will check later on injuries so check back by 5.Last edited by Spearit; 03-08-2012, 11:25 AM. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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great job spear. is there any data that suggest a team that played last night on the road vs a rested team tonight? seems too me that when this happens these plays crush even more. i dont have any real data to back it up just something i noticedtwitter: @JumpouttheJimComment
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Thanks - for some reason my local only allows betting on the quarters prior to tip. Once the game goes off, there's only a second 1/2 option coming. Is that abnormal?Originally posted by Spearit View Post
CBB 17-16-1Comment
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Interesting. Just looking this over. Have not checked the league but did look at our two teams tonight.Originally posted by myrjimmy3 View Post
What has the season shown us. Miami away has lost 3 times with a day or more off. Chicago has not lost to a team when they have played the night before and am home. I will look further at halfs. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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I have no use for the controls of a local. It is tough enough to win consistently, much less have less options to bet on.Originally posted by ackangeroo View PostThanks - for some reason my local only allows betting on the quarters prior to tip. Once the game goes off, there's only a second 1/2 option coming. Is that abnormal?
Advantages is having more books or several locals.
Easier to go online and see who has your play at the best odds.
I personally play with 5 dimes, thats it. Keep it simple. Great lines and options and Easy in and easy out. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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give em hell Spearit....thanks for the input
Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!Comment
It's always noon somewhere! 
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