The Bum's Division Openers 1/14-1/15 Best Bets !

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Green Bay, Baltimore Host Sunday NFL Playoffs

On the anniversary of Super Bowl I from 1967, it’s appropriate that we’ll be discussing the Green Bay Packers, who are in action in one of two Sunday NFL Division Round games.

But Packer backers wishing for a reprise of Green Bay’s 35-10 win over the Chiefs exactly 45 years ago might end up being a tad disappointed...if not crestfallen. More on the Packers in a moment.

The schedule tells us that Sunday’s action begins with an AFC clash between Houston (11-6 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) and Baltimore (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) at M&T Bank Stadium, adjacent to Camden Yards and a short walk from the colorful Inner Harbor. The Don Best odds screen notes the host Ravens as 7½-point favorites at most Las Vegas sports books, with the total fluctuating between 35-36½ depending upon the outlet. Kickoff time will be 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Greg Gumbel and the jovial Dan Dierdorf will describe the action.

Later in the afternoon, attention switches to Lambeau Field for the NFC’s second Division Round contest as the Giants (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) invade to face the defending champion Packers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS). Las Vegas wagering outlets mostly have Green Bay priced as a 7½-point favorite, with the total between 52½ -53. Kickoff time will be 4:30 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the TV coverage. Chris Meyers, Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver will be present to describe the action.

We haven’t consulted with Al Roker, but long-range weather forecasts in both Baltimore and Green Bay call for somewhat seasonably mild conditions in both locales, although there appears to be a chance for snow flurries for the Texans-Ravens game. Packers-Giants conditions indicate clear skies and a temperature around 20 degrees, downright balmy compared to the NFC title game between these two at the same site four years ago when the thermometer was hovering around 0°F.

These are both rematches from regular-season meetings, and while earlier results are rarely foolproof indicators of playoff rematches, a quick review of both games are in order.

Houston traveled to Baltimore on October 15, minus star WR Andre Johnson but still with starting QB Matt Schaub in the lineup. Schaub was able to put the Texans ahead 14-13 in the third quarter before the Ravens began to take control. Baltimore RB Ray Rice punched out 101 yards on the ground vs. Wade Phillips’ defense, and QB Joe Flacco ended up passing for 305 yards. The Ravens “D” took command as the game progressed, shutting out Houston from the middle of the third quarter and not allowing a first down over the final 11 minutes. The Texans’ NFL-best ground game gained 60 yards fewer (93) than its season average of 153 in a 29-14 Baltimore win.

Meanwhile, the Giants and Packers engaged in a wild shootout December 4 at MetLife Stadium. The action swung back and forth, with the Giants storming to an early lead, only to be bypassed by the Pack, then rallying again to level matters in the final moments before Aaron Rodgers led a game-winning drive resulting in Mason Crosby’s final-play FG and a 38-35 Green Bay win. Rodgers did not get much help from his running game that afternoon which gained only 2.4 yards per carry, but did pass for 369 yards.

Houston’s chances to reverse the outcome of the first meeting seem a bit more difficult, especially considering that Schaub has been out of the lineup since late November. The Texans have been going with North Carolina rookie QB T.J. Yates for the past month, and he has looked increasingly serviceable in Gary Kubiak’s QB-friendly offense.

But the third-ranked Ravens defense provides a stiff challenge, especially since it is adept at stopping the run (allowing only 3.5 ypc), which is Houston’s bread and butter. Yates has proven capable of diffusing some of the defensive pressure geared to slowing the run with a variety of rollouts and screen passes, but the Texans’ playbook is not as expansive for young Yates as it was the experienced Schaub, who was eventually overwhelmed in October by Ray Lewis & Company.

The Texans’ best chance is for its AFC-best defense to force Baltimore into mistakes, much as Houston did last week when J.J. Watt’s crucial 29-yard interception for a TD off of Bengals QB Andy Dalton turned around the wild card game in the Texans’ favor. But if Rice proves an effective infantry diversion as in the first meeting, we doubt Flacco falls into the same trap. And without some turnover help, Houston’s chances are further minimized on Sunday.

A turnaround from the first result might be a bit easier to imagine in Green Bay, where the Giants look to be peaking at the right time. Much like they did four years ago when gaining momentum late in the season that carried them to the Super Bowl shocker over the Patriots, the G-Men have caught another updraft. They’ve won four of their last five straight up and covered five of their last six (including the Dec. 4 meeting vs. the Pack).

Remember, too, that New York has won plenty of big games with the core of this roster over the past few years, including the NFC title upset over the Pack and Super Bowl win over the Patriots four years ago. This season, the G-Men rose to the occasion to beat Dallas in a pair of NFC East crucials in December, won at new England in early November, and dominated the Falcons in last week’s 24-2 win at the Meadowlands.

The G-Men have been running the ball much better in recent weeks now that RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both healthy. They trampled the Falcons for 172 rush yards last Sunday and set the stage for Eli Manning to hook up on big TD plays to WRs Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. Along with homerun WR Victor Cruz, Manning has more dangerous wideouts at his disposal than he had in the Super Bowl run four years ago.

Green Bay’s bottom-ranked defense bent but rarely broke all season and garnered a whopping 31 interceptions. How Manning avoids mistakes will likely be key to giving the Giants a chance at an upset on Sunday.

Another key will be for the New York pass rush to disrupt Rodgers, who was able to steer the Pack to the winning points in the first meeting despite very little help from his ground game. Rodgers found eight different receiving targets in the first meeting and tossed four TD passes.

Green Bay, however, enters the postseason banged up, with the likes of veteran offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga both forced to miss action lately, WR Greg Jennings trying to recover from a sprained knee, and RB James Starks in and out of the lineup over the past six weeks with a variety of ailments (ankle/knee).

Although the Packers overcame many injuries last year in their march to the Super Bowl, it will be a neat trick to do it again if so many key weapons are compromised by various hurts.

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Broncos And 49ers Aim For Saturday Upsets

NFL division Round action commences this weekend with a pair of battles on both Saturday and Sunday. Although history suggests this round belongs to the home teams/favorites (usually one and the same), results in recent years don’t necessarily indicate as such.

That should come as good news to Saturday’s underdogs, San Francisco (at home vs. New Orleans) and Denver (at New England).

Indeed, since the 2003 NFL postseason, underdog sides stand a respectable 19-13 against the number in Division Round games. Nothing earth-shaking, but an advantage nonetheless, and a departure from the many previous years when the host/favorites were dominating.

The 49ers (13-3 straight up, 11-4-1 against the spread) kick things off on the NFC side Saturday afternoon when hosting the surging Saints (14-3 SU, 13- ATS) at Candlestick Park. A quick check of the Don Best odds screen notes that New Orleans is priced as a 3½-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the total mostly sitting at 47½. Kickoff time is slated for 4:30 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by FOX. Marv Albert’s son Kenny, plus Moose Johnston and Tony Siragusa, will be on hand at Candlestick to describe the action.

Right off the bat, we note the 49ers’ home underdog status, a rarity in this playoff round in which the host team is almost always the favorite. Indeed, the 49ers are the first home dog in the Division Round since Carolina’s 1996 team was +3 vs. Dallas, a game the Panthers won, 26-17.

Of course, the Saints’ recent form has something to do with the spread, considering how devastating they've been the past two months. New Orleans has neither lost a game nor dropped a pointspread decision since Halloween, winning and covering nine straight since. Moreover, the Saints have scored 42 points or more in four straight games, and their win margin is a whopping 20 ppg over the last seven outings.

It must be noted, however, that New Orleans has been compiling most of those numbers at home, where the Saints have won and covered all nine of their games this season (including last week’s wild card win over the Lions) at the Superdome. On the road, the Saints are a less than overwhelming 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the number. Further, three of their five road wins have come by five points or fewer.

We caution, however, reading too much into those trends, much as we mostly dismiss the fact the Saints have not won as a visitor in their playoff history. Until last year’s wild card round loss at Seattle, the Saints had never been favored on the road in the playoffs, and had only played a handful of such games in their history. Besides, New Orleans won the most-important game in franchise history, Super Bowl XLIV, over the Colts two years ago, and that one was played in Miami, not the Superdome.

The key to this game will be if Drew Brees and his record-setting passing game can similarly damage the stout 49er defense. That might not be as easy as it seems, considering how Vic Fangio’s San Francisco stop unit ranked first against the run this season, allowing just 77 ypg and 3.5 ypc, not to mention a mere three rushing TDs. Although New Orleans does most of its damage via the pass, the ability to complement the aerial show with a capable infantry allows Brees to use play-action more effectively and buy himself an extra tick in the pocket. And the Saints were not quite as overwhelming on offense away from the climate-controlled conditions of the Superdome.

Still, even if the 49ers slow down Brees somewhat, questions remain whether San Francisco can keep pace. And the answer to that remains elusive.

Specifically, it’s because most keen observers are not sure that Jim Harbaugh’s “small-ball” strategy will translate effectively into postseason success. The 49ers’ formula of ball control offense and smothering defense worked effectively vs. lesser opposition all season but was rendered ineffective in a late-season showdown at Baltimore and further exposed in a subsequent loss at Arizona.

The Saints’ rush defense was not too bad this season (ranked 12th) and figures to be able to withstand the pounding thrusts of 49er RBs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. Much like Baltimore and Arizona were able to do down the stretch, the Saints will try to force QB Alex Smith to beat them through the air. Smith has been marginally more effective with his downfield throws as the season has progressed.

The key will thus be San Francisco’s ability to avoid third-and-long situations that could expose Smith to Gregg Williams’ exotic variety of blitz packages, where the Saints’ big-play defense usually excels. The 49ers’ ongoing inability to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns – they settled for a staggering 52 field-goal tries this season, with David Akers breaking the all-time NFL mark with 44 converted FGs along the way – could come back to haunt them in the postseason.

Later on Saturday, the Broncos (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) travel to Foxborough for a date vs. the AFC East champ Patriots (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS). The Don Best odds screen notes New England as a hefty 13½-point favorite in this matchup. Kickoff time at Gillette Stadium will by 8:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will be on hand to describe the action.

We don’t need to amplify too much more on the Tim Tebow phenomenon that recurred again last week in Denver’s unexpected win over the Steelers. Unexpected, indeed; Tebow’s 316 passing yards (on just 10 completions!) shocked Pittsburgh and anyone else who saw Tebow and the Bronco “O” struggle in recent weeks.

This is also a rematch of a December 18 game in Denver won by the Patriots, 41-23. New England, as it was prone to do late in the season, fell behind early that afternoon, this time by a 16-7 count, before a spate of Bronco turnovers in the second quarter opened the gates for Bill Belichick’s team to assume a 27-16 halftime edge. That lead was maintained by the Patriots quite comfortably in the second half, as Tom Brady repeatedly burned the depleted Denver pass defense with underneath throws to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The Broncos will have some confidence, not only after the Pittsburgh upset, but because Tebow moved the offense fairly well in the first meeting. Tebow’s own stats were acceptable (93 rush yards and 194 pass yards), although he contributed to the Broncos’ fumble issues that doomed them in this matchup four weeks ago.

Denver was also running roughshod through the porous Patriot defense, amassing 167 rush yards in the first quarter alone that afternoon in the Mile High city. The Broncos’ infantry pace slowed thereafter as they finished with 252 rush yards, but the turnover issues in the second quarter also had something to do with play selection changing course as that game proceeded.

Belichick will likely mass his defense to stop the run and dare Tebow to throw downfield, although such strategy proved risky for the Steelers last week. Tebow’s deep ball is adequate, and WR Demaryius Thomas burned Pittsburgh badly last week when the Steelers gambled on one-on-one coverage on the flanks. Tebow, however, will have his chances to throw deep again on Saturday.

Trading points with the Tom Brady-led Patriots might be asking a bit much, however. Brady tossed for 320 yards in the first meeting and posted stats almost equal to Brees this season, passing for a near-record 5,235 yards. The Pats also equaled an NFL record by scoring 30 or more points on 12 different occasions, and uncovered a new running threat in recent weeks with LSU rookie RB Stevan Ridley gaining better than 5 yards per carry.

Brady’s quick release also figures to negate some of Denver’s pass rush pressure from the edge, and his ability to locate Gronkowski and Hernandez, as in the first meeting, would be a big plus for New England.

The Patriots are hungry, too, having lost at this stage of the playoffs at home both of the last two seasons vs. the Ravens and Jets. We aren’t, however, putting much significance in Belichick’s recent enlistment of former aide Josh McDaniels, also Denver’s coach in 2009-10, to his staff, ostensibly for more insight in the Broncos. We note that teams associated with McDaniels are 7-32 over a 39-game stretch since mid-2009, and the Broncos are running a completely different offensive package than when young Josh was in town.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs

January 12, 2012



Wild Card Recap

Total bettors watched the 'over' go 3-1 last weekend but those following the action would agree that the results could've been 2-2 or even 3-1 to the 'under.' Including the first round results, the 'under' stands at 121-116-5 (51%) on the season.

Possible Numbers

Last week's 'over/under' between the Saints and Lions closed at 59 ½ points, which was the highest postseason total ever. According to VI expert Marc Lawrence and his database, since 1980 the highest NFL total was 62 in the Rams-49ers game on Oct. 29, 2000. St. Louis earned a 34-24 victory and the game stayed 'under' the number. With the top three scoring units (Packers, Saints, Patriots) still alive in the playoffs, we could see that number eclipsed this postseason. We reached out to head oddsmaker Jay Kornegay at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and he believed that you could see a Super Bowl 'over/under' of 64 if the Saints or Packers met the Patriots in this year's finale.

Divisional Playoff History

Prior to last year, the second round of the postseason usually saw the 'under' dominate. However, the 'over' went 4-0 last year but it could've easily been 2-2 if it wasn't for some serious bad beats. The Bears beat the Seahawks 35-21 in a game that saw a combined 28 points posted in the fourth quarter. And if you thought that was tough to stomach, the Jets upset the Patriots 28-21 on the road and the combined 49 points barely slid 'over' the closing number of 45. In that outcome, 17 points were posted in the final two minutes. Below are the recent results in the second round.

Total History (2004-2009)
2004 (Total 2-2) 2005 (Under 3-1)
Pittsburgh 20 N.Y. Jets 17 - Over 35 Denver 27 New England 13 - Under 44
Atlanta 47 St. Louis 17 - Over 48.5 Seattle 20 Washington 10 - Under 41
Philadelphia 27 Minnesota 14 - Under 47.5 Carolina 29 Chicago 21 - Over 30.5
New England 20 Indianapolis 3 - Under 52.5 Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 18 - Under 47.5
2006 (Total 2-2) 2007 (Total 2-2)
New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24 - Over 49 Green Bay 42 Seattle 20 - Over 44
Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6 - Under 41.5 New England 31 Jacksonville 20 - Under 51.5
Chicago 27 Seattle 24 - Over 37.5 San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24 - Over 46.5
New England 24 San Diego 21 - Under 46.5 N.Y. Giants 21 Dallas 17 - Under 47
2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Under 3-1)
Arizona 33 Carolina 13 - Under 49.5 New Orleans 45 Arizona 14 - Over 57
Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10 - Under 33.5 Indianapolis 20 Baltimore 3 - Under 44
Pittsburgh 35 San Diego 24 - Over 38 Minnesota 34 Dallas 3 - Under 45.5
Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants 11 - Under 39 N.Y. Jets 17 San Diego 14 - Under 42.5
2010(Over 4-0) 2011
Pittsburgh 31 Baltimore 24 - Over 37.5 New Orleans at San Francisco
Green Bay 48 Atlanta 21 - Over 43.5 Denver at New England
Chicago 35 Seattle 21 - Over 42.5 Houston at Baltimore
N.Y. Jets 28 New England 21 - Over 45 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay



Bye, Bye Scoring

We kept track of this during the regular season and will bring it up again since all four games fit the situation this weekend. This season, the 'under' went 24-8 (75%) in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

Coaching Trends

For those of you who followed the Mike Tomlin 'over' trend last week, congrats! For those that didn't, make a note that the Pittsburgh Steelers coach has been on the sidelines for eight playoff games and all eight have went 'over' the number. This week, we have another good angle and it was perfect up until last season. Since taking over for the Patriots in 2000, Bill Belichick has coached in seven divisional round games and the 'under' has cashed in six of seven. It would've been seven out of seven but the as mentioned above, the Jets and Patriots snapped the streak. Of the seven games, five were played in Foxborough and New England has only surrendered an average of 15.6 PPG.

Saturday, Jan. 14

New Orleans at San Francisco: Something has to give in this matchup, when the Saints' high-powered offense (34.8 PPG) meets the 49ers' stout defense (14.3 PPG). Who do you put your money on? New Orleans has busted 40-plus points in its last four games, but San Francisco's defense has surrendered 10 points in its last three home games albeit to inferior attacks. The opener was 46 ½ points but the number is hovering between 47 and 48 at most books. This is the highest total that the 49ers have seen all season, and the second-lowest 'over/under' for the Saints. On the road, New Orleans saw the total hold steady at 4-4 with its offense averaging 27.3 PPG. If you're looking for a solid trend, make a note that Saints QB Drew Brees has played in seven playoff games with his current team and six have gone 'over' the number. The one 'under' came in Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Colts (31-17), which had a total of 57.

Denver at New England: This total is bouncing back and forth between 50 and 51 points. New England ran past Denver 41-23 on the road in Week 14 and the 'over' cashed (47.5) in the third quarter. The Patriots' offense put up seven scores (5 TDs) in the win and it's hard to see the unit slowing down. New England closed the season with six straight 'over' tickets. Including last week against Pittsburgh, Denver has squared off against five playoff teams this season and all five of those games have gone 'over.' There are no early signs of precipitation for the primetime affair, but temperatures are expected to be in the twenties.

Sunday, Jan. 15

Houston at Baltimore: The total on this game has seen the most action so far. The line opened at 38 ½ points before dropping quickly to 35 ½. Most shops push the number back up to 36 as of Thursday. In Week 5, Baltimore handled Houston 29-14 and the 'over/under' closed at 43 ½ points. Due to injuries, the Texans are a completely different team, especially on offense. Since QB Matt Schaub went down, the team averaged 19.8 PPG. Defensively, Baltimore (16.6 PPG) and Houston (17.4 PPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in scoring. At home, the Ravens have seen the 'over/under' go 4-4 this season. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in seven playoff games and the 'under' has gone 4-3 in those tilts but all of them were played on the road as well. Will we see a different Ravens team in the playoffs at home?

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Another rematch here as the Giants will look to avenge a 38-35 home loss to the Packers in Week 13. The 'over' hit midway through the third quarter, yet this week's opener (51) was lower than the first meeting (53.5). The number has spiked up since and it's hard to argue an 'under' play considering Green Bay's offense (35 PPG) is the best in the league and its defense (22.4 PPG) isn't exactly a brick wall. At Lambeau Field, the Packers have put up 35 or more points in seven games and 40-plus in five contests, which has produced a 7-1 mark to the 'over.' The high-powered attack could be tempered on Sunday against a Giants' defense that has only given up 23, 14, 14 and two points the last four weeks. To no surprise, the 'under' has gone 4-0 during this stretch. We mentioned a player-based trend on the Giants QB Eli Manning last week and we'll revisit it again. In his eight playoff starts, New York has never scored more than 24 points, which has helped the 'under' produce a 7-1 record.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos And 49ers Aim For Saturday Upsets

NFL Division Round action commences this weekend with a pair of battles on both Saturday and Sunday. Although history suggests this round belongs to the home teams/favorites (usually one and the same), results in recent years don’t necessarily indicate as such.

That should come as good news to Saturday’s underdogs, San Francisco (at home vs. New Orleans) and Denver (at New England).

Indeed, since the 2003 NFL postseason, underdog sides stand a respectable 19-13 against the number in Division Round games. Nothing earth-shaking, but an advantage nonetheless, and a departure from the many previous years when the host/favorites were dominating.

The 49ers (13-3 straight up, 11-4-1 against the spread) kick things off on the NFC side Saturday afternoon when hosting the surging Saints (14-3 SU, 13- ATS) at Candlestick Park. A quick check of the Don Best odds screen notes that New Orleans is priced as a 3½-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the total mostly sitting at 47½. Kickoff time is slated for 4:30 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by FOX. Marv Albert’s son Kenny, plus Moose Johnston and Tony Siragusa, will be on hand at Candlestick to describe the action.

Right off the bat, we note the 49ers’ home underdog status, a rarity in this playoff round in which the host team is almost always the favorite. Indeed, the 49ers are the first home dog in the Division Round since Carolina’s 1996 team was +3 vs. Dallas, a game the Panthers won, 26-17.

Of course, the Saints’ recent form has something to do with the spread, considering how devastating they've been the past two months. New Orleans has neither lost a game nor dropped a pointspread decision since Halloween, winning and covering nine straight since. Moreover, the Saints have scored 42 points or more in four straight games, and their win margin is a whopping 20 ppg over the last seven outings.

It must be noted, however, that New Orleans has been compiling most of those numbers at home, where the Saints have won and covered all nine of their games this season (including last week’s wild card win over the Lions) at the Superdome. On the road, the Saints are a less than overwhelming 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the number. Further, three of their five road wins have come by five points or fewer.

We caution, however, reading too much into those trends, much as we mostly dismiss the fact the Saints have not won as a visitor in their playoff history. Until last year’s wild card round loss at Seattle, the Saints had never been favored on the road in the playoffs, and had only played a handful of such games in their history. Besides, New Orleans won the most-important game in franchise history, Super Bowl XLIV, over the Colts two years ago, and that one was played in Miami, not the Superdome.

The key to this game will be if Drew Brees and his record-setting passing game can similarly damage the stout 49er defense. That might not be as easy as it seems, considering how Vic Fangio’s San Francisco stop unit ranked first against the run this season, allowing just 77 ypg and 3.5 ypc, not to mention a mere three rushing TDs. Although New Orleans does most of its damage via the pass, the ability to complement the aerial show with a capable infantry allows Brees to use play-action more effectively and buy himself an extra tick in the pocket. And the Saints were not quite as overwhelming on offense away from the climate-controlled conditions of the Superdome.

Still, even if the 49ers slow down Brees somewhat, questions remain whether San Francisco can keep pace. And the answer to that remains elusive.

Specifically, it’s because most keen observers are not sure that Jim Harbaugh’s “small-ball” strategy will translate effectively into postseason success. The 49ers’ formula of ball control offense and smothering defense worked effectively vs. lesser opposition all season but was rendered ineffective in a late-season showdown at Baltimore and further exposed in a subsequent loss at Arizona.

The Saints’ rush defense was not too bad this season (ranked 12th) and figures to be able to withstand the pounding thrusts of 49er RBs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. Much like Baltimore and Arizona were able to do down the stretch, the Saints will try to force QB Alex Smith to beat them through the air. Smith has been marginally more effective with his downfield throws as the season has progressed.

The key will thus be San Francisco’s ability to avoid third-and-long situations that could expose Smith to Gregg Williams’ exotic variety of blitz packages, where the Saints’ big-play defense usually excels. The 49ers’ ongoing inability to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns – they settled for a staggering 52 field-goal tries this season, with David Akers breaking the all-time NFL mark with 44 converted FGs along the way – could come back to haunt them in the postseason.

Later on Saturday, the Broncos (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) travel to Foxborough for a date vs. the AFC East champ Patriots (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS). The Don Best odds screen notes New England as a hefty 13½-point favorite in this matchup. Kickoff time at Gillette Stadium will by 8:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will be on hand to describe the action.

We don’t need to amplify too much more on the Tim Tebow phenomenon that recurred again last week in Denver’s unexpected win over the Steelers. Unexpected, indeed; Tebow’s 316 passing yards (on just 10 completions!) shocked Pittsburgh and anyone else who saw Tebow and the Bronco “O” struggle in recent weeks.

This is also a rematch of a December 18 game in Denver won by the Patriots, 41-23. New England, as it was prone to do late in the season, fell behind early that afternoon, this time by a 16-7 count, before a spate of Bronco turnovers in the second quarter opened the gates for Bill Belichick’s team to assume a 27-16 halftime edge. That lead was maintained by the Patriots quite comfortably in the second half, as Tom Brady repeatedly burned the depleted Denver pass defense with underneath throws to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The Broncos will have some confidence, not only after the Pittsburgh upset, but because Tebow moved the offense fairly well in the first meeting. Tebow’s own stats were acceptable (93 rush yards and 194 pass yards), although he contributed to the Broncos’ fumble issues that doomed them in this matchup four weeks ago.

Denver was also running roughshod through the porous Patriot defense, amassing 167 rush yards in the first quarter alone that afternoon in the Mile High city. The Broncos’ infantry pace slowed thereafter as they finished with 252 rush yards, but the turnover issues in the second quarter also had something to do with play selection changing course as that game proceeded.

Belichick will likely mass his defense to stop the run and dare Tebow to throw downfield, although such strategy proved risky for the Steelers last week. Tebow’s deep ball is adequate, and WR Demaryius Thomas burned Pittsburgh badly last week when the Steelers gambled on one-on-one coverage on the flanks. Tebow, however, will have his chances to throw deep again on Saturday.

Trading points with the Tom Brady-led Patriots might be asking a bit much, however. Brady tossed for 320 yards in the first meeting and posted stats almost equal to Brees this season, passing for a near-record 5,235 yards. The Pats also equaled an NFL record by scoring 30 or more points on 12 different occasions, and uncovered a new running threat in recent weeks with LSU rookie RB Stevan Ridley gaining better than 5 yards per carry.

Brady’s quick release also figures to negate some of Denver’s pass rush pressure from the edge, and his ability to locate Gronkowski and Hernandez, as in the first meeting, would be a big plus for New England.

The Patriots are hungry, too, having lost at this stage of the playoffs at home both of the last two seasons vs. the Ravens and Jets. We aren’t, however, putting much significance in Belichick’s recent enlistment of former aide Josh McDaniels, also Denver’s coach in 2009-10, to his staff, ostensibly for more insight in the Broncos. We note that teams associated with McDaniels are 7-32 over a 39-game stretch since mid-2009, and the Broncos are running a completely different offensive package than when young Josh was in town.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

January 13, 2012

There may quite a few of you who are tired of the Tim Tebow talk whether it be on TV, radio or print, but I think I’m going to milk out everything I can out of it while he’s still a hot topic. By the end of Saturday night, it could all be over and then we can all focus our attention on real football quarterbacks with perfect throwing motions, someone like Joe Flacco of the Ravens who finds that he can’t even watch ESPN anymore because he’s so irked about all the attention Tebow gets.
Most of us can’t explain it, but for whatever the reason, Tim Tebow is a hot topic in the sports world. If ESPN can devote nearly half of their news updates to the phenomenon of Tebow due to public demand, than I’m hopping on board too.

We have had it embedded in our minds what the successful conventional quarterback is supposed to be. We measure all the greats by statistics and Tebow doesn’t match up with even the most mediocre quarterbacks in league history, but there’s no denying that despite all his flaws, he’s got something working that has led to wins. And isn’t winning ultimately what it’s all about?

Las Vegas sports books have given the Broncos the longest odds on the board to win the Super Bowl, but sports books are finding that they are at severe risk if Denver does the unthinkable by running the table.

Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller can be put in the category of someone hoping that the Tebow from the Week 16 and 17 losses against the Bills and Chiefs shows up quickly, rather than the Tebow who shredded the top-ranked defense of the Steelers last week.

“We posted odds on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl at 500/1 after they started 1-4, just before Tebow made his first miracle at Miami,” said Miller, “and we’ve been dropping them ever since because of money taken.”

“We currently have the Broncos at 20/1 to win the Super Bowl just because of all the risk accumulated throughout the season. They are our biggest risk of all the remaining teams. Needless to say, I am not rooting for any more magic to occur.”

Admittedly, Miller knows his odds aren’t even close to what the value should be on a team that is looking at being close to double digits in each of their final three games should they make the Super Bowl. But Miller’s job as a bookmaker is to eliminate risk for his properties and with the Broncos, the risk is large. It’s almost as if he’s put a closed sign on the team.

I recently had Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts, on Sports Book Radio and talked about his futures with the Broncos and he’s in the same boat with Miller where the demand is far exceeding the supply.

“Before the playoffs started I was going to post the Broncos at 60/1 and your buddy, Gregg Fisher (Supervisor at MGM Grand), said the odds shouldn’t be lower than 100/1 so I made them 99/1 and we got all kinds of small bets that turned into pretty big risk,” said Rood. “Right now, we’re down to 20/1 on the Broncos and people are still betting it.”

Mathematically, Fisher was absolutely correct, but math doesn’t account for the massive overflow of action on one side. With three games to go, and figuring the Broncos would be double-digit underdogs against whoever they face, Denver should be about 139/1 right now to win the Super Bowl (+600 x +300 x +400). To get those odds, the only way to grab it is betting the money-line on Denver and rolling the winnings over in each of the next three games.

When I posed the question to Rood of how big the handle would be if Tebow happened to make the Super Bowl against anyone, Rood didn’t hesitate with an answer, “It would set an all-time record.”

Between the crossover appeal Tebow has, he would have everyone from priests to bible belt Moms, who never bet on football, getting their $10 and $20 bets to Las Vegas somehow. We see that crossover appeal in huge TV ratings whenever Tebow plays and we see the same appeal over the counters at the sports books.

The LVH Super Book offered the Broncos at 65/1 following the Patriots loss, odds that are the best in the city, despite being well below what rolling over the money-line weekly would be. I asked LVH assistant sports book manager Jeff Sherman about what Tebow in the Super Bowl would mean for his book and he had the same sentiment as Rood.

“The handle would be through the roof and likely set a record,” said Sherman. “Not only would we get all the action from new bettors that have been watching football again because of Tebow, but we’d also get that segment of the market that dislikes him to come in and bet against him.“

Just like Flacco, there are a growing number of people who don’t like Tebow. Most of it stems from him just being unconventional, yet so publicized on our favorite sports shows. When listening to callers on sports talk radio shows discuss Tebow, it’s almost like hearing passionate crusaders debate the subject of abortion.

However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and the league couldn’t be happier with the wholesome image portrayed by Tebow in light of all the other jurisprudence stories routinely going on with his other players, not to mention the trauma the lockout gave fans.

In the midst of all the hype and publicity Tebow gets from the media, we’ve almost forgotten about the 15-1 Packers and their very likable and marketable quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a QB who get‘s ‘A‘s‘ in every category of what most of us think a typical slinger should be.

Yet, in an ESPN poll, Tebow is voted as the most liked professional athlete above Rodgers and the likes of NBA superstar Kobe Bryant and Saints QB Drew Brees.

We have become a reality-television driven society and love the immediate shock value and watching drama unfold among unique personalities, whether it be in a pawn shop, storage unit, bakery or fishing boat. Our sports television programming has taken all the weekly miracles Tebow has been involved in and turned it into their own reality sports show.

Unlike the Snooki’s or Dave Hester’s of the reality TV world, Tim Tebow actually might be as genuine as he portrays which makes him even more endearing to those who have been captivated.

The 13 ½-point spread may suggest that the Tebow show comes to an end this week in New England, but sharp money was quick to jump on any +14 with Denver, and why not? It’s not like Tom Brady has won more playoff games than Tebow over the last three years. Home losses in this round the last two seasons by the Patriots have some questioning how hungry the three-time champs really are.

The Patriots’ 41-23 win in week 15 at Denver was aided by three key turnovers in the second quarter, but Denver basically did what they wanted offensively except for holding onto the ball. For Denver to have a chance in this game, they are going to have to be very aggressive with their pass rush on Brady. Dropping seven defenders back in coverage didn’t work the first time, so send the kitchen sink at him on almost every play and make him feel the pain like the Ravens and Jets did the last two postseasons. Easier said than done, but Denver can’t trade scores with Brady.

The Saints have been bet up from the opening line as 3-point favorites to -4 just about everywhere in town. The public has been correct with the Saints against-the-spread in their last nine games and their fast paced offensive attack seems impossible to stop.

As if the Candlestick Park turf wasn’t soggy enough, reports have been coming from San Francisco that the grounds crew have been mysteriously watering the field a little bit more than usual which seems odd since the below sea level field almost waters itself. The 49ers might be trying to use home field advantage to its fullest by creating quick-sand to help slow the Saints and win the game in the trenches. New Orleans has shown to be a completely different team away from the dome and have gone 2-3 against he spread on grass fields this season.

The Saints are tied with the Ravens as the most publicly bet teams of the week. Unlike the Saints, the Ravens-Texans line has stayed steady at -7 ½ despite all the small money. The biggest move on the game was the total, which initially opened 38 ½ and was bet down to 35 ½. The LVH Super Book currently has it at 36.

Public opinion is split down the middle on the Giants and Packers. Sharp money took all the +9, +8 ½ and +8 that was out there and the line has been sitting at 7 ½ all week. In Week 13 the Packers were 7-point road favorites versus New York and won 38-35. A lot has changed since then. The Giants were on a three-game losing streak coming in while the Packers were undefeated.

Now we have a healthy Giants squad that has won four of their last five, which were essentially playoff games, while the Packers have been on hiatus for three weeks. Most bettors want to believe that the 2007 season’s NFC Championship game can repeat itself, but we could be jaded by recent events and forgetting about how good this Packers offense is.

Enjoy the games this week, good luck!

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Playoff Primer

January 13, 2012

One of the best weekends in sports has arrived! Gamblers have a pair of doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday in the NFL Playoffs, including a showdown between the Tim-Tebow-led Broncos against Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro in Saturday’s prime-time tilt.

But we start in San Francisco, where the NFC’s second-seeded 49ers will take on a red-hot New Orleans squad by the Bay. The Saints were 3 ½-point favorites for most of the week, but the number moved up to four on Friday morning. The total is 47 and Jim Harbaugh’s club is plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170)

New Orleans (14-3 straight up, 13-4 against the spread) has taken the cash in nine consecutive games, including last week’s 45-28 win over Detroit as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ Drew Brees completed 33-of-43 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception.

Pierre Thomas had 14 ‘touches’ (eight rushes, six receptions) for 121 yards and one rushing score, while Darren Sproles had 85 yards on 14 touches (10 carries, four catches) with a pair of TD scampers. Marques Colston had a team-high seven receptions for 120 yards.

San Francisco (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) was the NFL’s biggest surprise this year under the leadership of Harbaugh, who has shattered the previous trend of college coaches flopping at the pro level. The former Stanford coach has instilled toughness into a team that thrives on defense and running the football.

The 49ers were nearly perfect at home this year, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 versus the number. The lone loss came to the Cowboys in an overtime game they led by 10 with seven minutes remaining.

Sean Peyton’s club went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Saints saw the ‘over’ go 10-7 overall, 4-4 in their eight road assignments.

San Francisco has seen the ‘under’ go 9-7 overall, 4-4 in its home games. This is the highest total the 49ers have had all year. The previous high was 45 in a 25-19 win at Detroit.

On the injury front, New Orleans WR Lance Moore (hamstring) has been ruled ‘out.’ LB Jonathan Vilma has been limited at practice but will play.

The bye week has allowed the 49ers to get completely healthy with the exception of TE Delanie Walker, who is ‘out’ with a fractured jaw.

Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

New England (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) garnered the AFC’s No. 1 seed thanks to eight straight victories to close the regular season. The Patriots overcame a leaky defense thanks to their high-octane offense led by veteran quarterback Tom Brady, who enjoyed another sensational year with 5,239 passing yards and a 39/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Brady has utilized one of the best WRs in the game (Wes Welker) and two of the league’s top tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Welker hauled in an NFL-best 122 receptions for 1,573 yards and nine TDs. Gronkowski had 90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 TDs, while Hernandez finished the regular season with 79 grabs for 910 yards and seven scores.

Denver (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) lost four of its first five games before finally turning to Tim Tebow in favor of Kyle Orton at the QB position. The two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida paid instant dividends, leading the Broncos to a 7-1 record in his first eight starts.

However, John Fox’s team faltered down the stretch with three consecutive losses, backing into the postseason with a .500 record. With Tebow struggling mightily in losses at Buffalo and vs. Kansas City to end the year, his critics roared with approval.

But No. 15 didn’t get the memo. Facing the NFL’s top-ranked defense in last week’s AFC quarterfinals, Tebow threw for 316 yards, including an 80-yard scoring strike on the first play of overtime to propel the Broncos to a 29-23 win over the Steelers.

Denver hooked up its backers as an eight-point underdog, cashing money-line tickets in the plus-350 range (risk $100 to win $350).

Tebow’s game-winning TD pass went to fellow second-year player Demaryius Thomas, who showed his speed and power by dealing out a ferocious stiff-arm to create a little distance before beating the Pittsburgh secondary to the end zone. Thomas was all about the YAC (yards after the catch), turning four catches into 204 yards.

These teams met in the Mile High City on Dec. 18 with the Patriots capturing a 41-23 win as seven-point favorites. Denver raced out to a 16-7 lead before three second-quarter fumbles turned the tide of the game.

Brady threw for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. Tebow completed 11-of-22 throws for 194 yards and also rushed 12 times for 93 yards and a pair of scores.

As of early Friday evening, most books were listing New England as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 50 ½. Neither number has had much movement since opening Sunday night. The Broncos are available to win outright for a plus-600 return (risk $100 to win $600).

New England has been a double-digit favorite three times, going 2-1 ATS. The Pats, who have won only three of their eight home games by double-digit margins, went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home during the regular season.

Denver has thrived on the road with a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS mark. This is the Broncos’ richest underdog situation of the year.

The ‘over’ is 11-5 overall for the Pats, 5-3 in their home games. They have seen the ‘over’ hit in six consecutive games. Also, they have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 5-4 clip in their nine games with totals in the 50s.

This is the highest total of the season for the Broncos, who have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 their last four times out. For the year, the ‘over’ is 10-7 overall, 4-4 in their road contests. The previous high seen by Denver was 47 ½ in the aforementioned loss to New England.

CBS will provide the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Here are the updated NFL futures per Sportsbook.com: Green Bay is the 7/4 (+175) ‘chalk’ and New England has the second-shortest odds at 5/2 (+250). The rest are as follows…Saints (4/1), Ravens (7/1), Giants (10/1), 49ers (12/1), Texans (20/1) and Broncos (50/1).

--Denver owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as an underdog with Tim Tebow as its starting quarterback.

--Sportsbook.com has a slew of proposition wagers for all four NFL games this weekend. Tebow’s ‘over/under’ totals are as follows: passing yards (192.5), rushing yards (55.5) completions (11.5) and rushing attempts (9.5).

--Denver veteran safety Brian Dawkins remains ‘out’ and WR Eric Decker is also ‘out.’ Decker (44 catches, 612 yards, eight TDs) suffered a knee injury against Pittsburgh.

--Since the Brees-Peyton combo arrived in New Orleans, it has only played a pair of road playoff games. The Saints lost both times, at Chicago in 2006 and at Seattle last year.

[StarDust Bum]

sorry gang went out and thought i'd be back before the kickoff of the first game.......

NFL

Saturday, January 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Denver - 8:00 PM ET New England -13.5 500
New England - Over 50 500

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Sunday Divisional Round Action

January 14, 2012

The final two spots for the NFL conference title games are up for grabs on Sunday with a pair of divisional playoff matchups. The Ravens are playing their first home playoff game since the 2006 season, as Baltimore hosts Houston. The late game features the defending Super Bowl champion Packers entertaining the feisty Giants at Lambeau Field.

Texans at Ravens (-7 ½, 36) - 1:00 PM EST

For the first time in John Harbaugh's four seasons as head coach of the Ravens, his club is the champions of the AFC North. Baltimore has won a postseason game in each of the last three years, while taking on a Houston team coming off its first playoff victory ever. The Texans will look to ride the momentum of last week's home triumph over the Bengals, thanks to a strong defensive performance.

Houston intercepted Cincinnati rookie quarterback Andy Dalton three times in a 31-10 victory as four-point favorites, including a pick-six by J.J. Watts in the final minute of the first half. Dalton's rookie counterpart, T.J. Yates threw for just 159 yards in his playoff debut, but Arian Foster rushed for 153 yards and two scores to lead Houston to the win. The cover by Houston was its first since rallying at Cincinnati in Week 14, pulling out a 20-19 stunner as 2 ½-point road underdogs.

The Ravens took care of their business at M&T Bank Stadium this season with a perfect 8-0 record. However, Baltimore finished 4-3-1 ATS at home, including three ATS losses as double-digit favorites. The good news for the Ravens is the 4-0-1 ATS when laying a touchdown or less, as Baltimore took care of Houston in Week 6 with a 29-14 rout.

In that mid-October meeting, the Ravens scored the final 16 points of the game to knock off the Texans as seven-point 'chalk.' Baltimore needed three Billy Cundiff field goals, while the Houston offense was able to muster only 293 yards and one touchdown in the loss. Joe Flacco became only the second quarterback all season (Drew Brees in Week 3) to throw for at least 300 yards on this Texans' defense, who has played extremely well despite the loss of standout defensive end Mario Williams. The former top pick suffered a torn pectoral muscle in a Week 5 loss to the Raiders, as Houston has allowed 19 points or less in nine of the last 11 games.

Baltimore has compiled a 4-3 SU/ATS record the last three postseasons, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in its first game. In spite of being on the road for all seven contests, the Ravens dominated the Dolphins ('08) and Chiefs ('10) as favorites, outscoring the two opponents, 57-16. Baltimore is just 1-2 SU/ATS in the divisional round under Harbaugh, including a 31-24 defeat at Pittsburgh last January as 3 ½-point 'dogs.

Since 2006, this is the 16th playoff game with a total listed at 40 or less. The 'over' has hit 10 of the previous 15 times, including in the two AFC Wild Card games last weekend. The divisional round saw plenty of high-scoring games last January with all four games eclipsing the 'over,' as the Ravens easily cashed the 'over' of 37 in the loss to the Steelers.

Giants at Packers (-7 ½, 53) - 4:30 PM EST

Green Bay opens up its title defense following a 15-1 regular season as the Packers welcome in the Giants to Lambeau Field. New York took care of its business in a Wild Card blowout of Atlanta for the franchise's first playoff victory since Super Bowl XLII. However, there's several storylines from off the field that could turn into a potential distraction for the defending Super Bowl champions.

Packers' offensive coordinator Joe Philbin has been dealing with the tragic loss of his son, who drowned last week in Wisconsin. On the field, Green Bay rebounded from a surprising defeat at Kansas City that snapped a 19-game winning streak by beating Chicago and Detroit at home to finish with the best record in the NFL. The Packers scored a league-high 560 points, while eclipsing the 30-point mark in 11 games this season.

The domination at Lambeau Field was evident, as Mike McCarthy's squad won all eight home games, while covering seven times. The lone ATS loss came in a 35-26 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 11 as 14-point favorites, but the Packers own an amazing 11-2 ATS record at home since October 2010. This is the first playoff game in Green Bay since the 2007 NFC Championship, when the Giants came into the frozen tundra and stunned the Packers.

In Brett Favre's final game as a Packer, the legendary Green Bay quarterback threw an interception in overtime, leading to a game-winning field goal by the Giants in a 23-20 stunner. New York captured the NFC Championship as 7 ½-point underdogs, en route to knocking off the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl two weeks later as double-digit 'dogs. Prior to this season's playoffs, the Super Bowl upset was the last postseason win picked up by Eli Manning.

The Giants' quarterback bounced back from a disappointing end to the previous three seasons with a strong performance in a 24-2 pounding of the Falcons last Sunday. Manning tossed three touchdown passes, including a pair of scores to Hakeem Nicks, who racked up 115 yards on nine catches. New York's defense held Atlanta's explosive offense to just 247 yards and 14 first downs, while cashing easily as three-point favorites.

Tom Coughlin's club has quietly done well against the number recently by compiling a 5-1 ATS record the last six games. The only setback in this stretch came as 5 ½-point favorites against the Redskins, falling at home, 23-10 in Week 15. Since that loss, the Giants have outscored their opponents, 84-30 in the last three wins over the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons.

The first ATS cover in this span came against the Packers in Week 13, a 38-35 shootout defeat at Met Life Stadium as seven-point underdogs. The game easily finished 'over' the total of 53 ½, thanks to seven combined touchdown passes by Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Both teams accumulated nearly 450 yards of offense, but it was Mason Crosby's 30-yard field goal at the gun that gave the Packers their 12th victory of the season.

Green Bay ran through the gauntlet of four wins in four weeks away from Wisconsin during its Super Bowl last season, with three victories coming by seven points or less. The divisional round turned out to be the biggest scoring output for the Packers by putting up 48 points in a blowout of the Falcons at the Georgia Dome, including three touchdown passes from Rodgers.

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Texans at Ravens: What bettors need to know

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 36)

THE STORY: The Houston Texans finally found the formula to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, combining a dominating running game with a stalwart defense. Some would say they simply borrowed from the playbook used by the Baltimore Ravens for the past decade. In many ways, the Texans will have to beat the Ravens at their own game when they visit Baltimore for an AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday afternoon. Houston already had one crack at the Ravens earlier this season, dropping a 29-14 decision at Baltimore on Oct. 16. Of course, that was a typical outcome this season for the Ravens, who posted the first perfect 8-0 record at home in team history. Baltimore has won all five meetings with Houston as it seeks its first home playoff win since the 2000 Super Bowl-winning season.

TV: CBS, 1 p.m. ET.

LINE: Depending on where you bet, Las Vegas or offshore, this line looks different. Most online books have taken the spread to -9 while Vegas oddsmakers have kept it a -7.5. The total has fallen from 38.5 to 35.5.

WEATHER: The forecast for Baltimore is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with slight winds blowing NNW at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (11-6, 10-5-2 ATS): Houston won its first playoff game in franchise history last week, getting 153 yards rushing and two touchdowns from Arian Foster in a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati. Star WR Andre Johnson, who missed the first meeting versus the Ravens and sat out nine games this season, had five receptions for 90 yards, including a 40-yard scoring pass. Rookie T.J. Yates, who was the third-string QB in October, completed 11 of 20 for 159 yards and one TD. Houston had four sacks and an interception return for a touchdown by DE J.J. Watt vs. Cincinnati. Foster was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries by the Ravens in Week 6, but he had 100 yards against them last season.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-3, 8-7-1 ATS): Joe Flacco is often criticized for holding back Baltimore’s offense, but he’s the only QB in the Super Bowl era to start a playoff game in each of his first four seasons. Flacco is 27-5 at home and will get a boost with the return of WR Anquan Boldin, who missed the last two games with a knee injury. Boldin had eight receptions for 132 yards in the last meeting against the Texans. Still, the offense revolves around RB Ray Rice, who rushed for 1,364 yards and 12 TDs and led the league with 2,068 yards from scrimmage. He rushed for 101 yards and added 60 more receiving against Houston. Baltimore led the AFC with 48 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as favorites.
* Texans are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Ravens and Texans were the only teams to rank among the top five in total defense, rushing defense and passing defense.

2. Houston was the first team to win its franchise playoff debut since Baltimore in 2000.

3. The Ravens have won their playoff opener in each of the last three seasons. Each game was on the road.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Texans 13. Baltimore is most susceptible through the air, but expecting Yates to win in a hostile environment is asking too much.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, Jan. 15

Houston at Baltimore: The total on this game has seen the most action so far. The line opened at 38 ½ points before dropping quickly to 35 ½. Most shops push the number back up to 36 as of Thursday. In Week 5, Baltimore handled Houston 29-14 and the 'over/under' closed at 43 ½ points. Due to injuries, the Texans are a completely different team, especially on offense. Since QB Matt Schaub went down, the team averaged 19.8 PPG. Defensively, Baltimore (16.6 PPG) and Houston (17.4 PPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in scoring. At home, the Ravens have seen the 'over/under' go 4-4 this season. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in seven playoff games and the 'under' has gone 4-3 in those tilts but all of them were played on the road as well. Will we see a different Ravens team in the playoffs at home?

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Another rematch here as the Giants will look to avenge a 38-35 home loss to the Packers in Week 13. The 'over' hit midway through the third quarter, yet this week's opener (51) was lower than the first meeting (53.5). The number has spiked up since and it's hard to argue an 'under' play considering Green Bay's offense (35 PPG) is the best in the league and its defense (22.4 PPG) isn't exactly a brick wall. At Lambeau Field, the Packers have put up 35 or more points in seven games and 40-plus in five contests, which has produced a 7-1 mark to the 'over.' The high-powered attack could be tempered on Sunday against a Giants' defense that has only given up 23, 14, 14 and two points the last four weeks. To no surprise, the 'under' has gone 4-0 during this stretch. We mentioned a player-based trend on the Giants QB Eli Manning last week and we'll revisit it again. In his eight playoff starts, New York has never scored more than 24 points, which has helped the 'under' produce a 7-1 record.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/14/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
01/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
01/07/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
Totals 7-*3-*0 70.00% +1850


Sunday, January 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -9 500

Baltimore - Over 36.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants +7.5 500

Green Bay - Over 52.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

These teams have played four straight (and six of seven) meetings going Over the total. And this pair of rare five-star FoxSheets trends also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.

Play Over - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (73-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.7%, +49.9 units. Rating = 5*).

Mike McCarthy is 13-1 OVER (92.9%, +11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 33.7, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 5*).

Manning has been on fire over the past two weeks, completing 47-of-65 passes (72%) for 623 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT. He also lit up the Packers in Week 13 for 347 yards (8.68 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT. WR Hakeem Nicks was his main man against Atlanta last Sunday, catching five of the nine passes thrown his way and gaining 115 yards and 2 TD, the last one measuring 72 yards. Mario Manningham caught the other touchdown while Victor Cruz was finally held in check (two catches, 28 yards). Cruz finished the regular season with 342 yards and 2 TD in his final two contests, and had a game-high 119 receiving yards in the December meeting with Green Bay. Nicks also scored twice on the Packers secondary in Week 13. The Pack allow the most passing yards in the entire league (300 YPG), a number that has risen to 319 YPG over the past seven games. To be fair, Green Bay rested some of its starters when it surrendered 502 yards in the season-finale win over Detroit.

The Giants had 100 rushing yards on 20 carries in their Week 13 matchup with the Packers, which is more than they usually gain (89 YPG, last in NFL). Brandon Jacobs ran for 59 of those yards on just eight carries (7.4 YPC) and a one-yard touchdown, while Ahmad Bradshaw was limited to 38 yards on 11 attempts (3.5 YPC). Both backs tore up the Falcons last Sunday as Jacobs ran for 92 yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and Bradshaw tallied 63 yards, also on 14 carries (4.5 YPC). Green Bay had allowed seven straight teams to rush for 100 yards before Detroit gained just 73 (4.9 YPC) in the season finale.

Rodgers is coming off perhaps the best season of all-time, setting an NFL record for passer rating (122.5), while throwing for 4,643 yards (310 YPG), 45 TD and 6 INT. He completed 28-of-46 passes for 369 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT in the road win over New York, getting all his receivers in the act. WR Greg Jennings, who is probable with a knee injury, had a touchdown and 94 receiving yards and that day, the same amount of yards as WR Jordy Nelson, who caught all four passes thrown his way. Veteran WR Donald Driver pitched in with two touchdown grabs against the New York secondary, the second one with 3:35 left in regulation, while TE Jermichael Finley finished with six catches for 87 yards. The Giants will have a hard time keeping track of all these weapons, especially because they allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this year (255 YPG).

The Packers’ rushing attack has been suspect, surpassing 105 yards just once in the season’s final eight games, but RB James Starks (578 rush yds, 4.3 YPC) has had plenty of time for his ankle to heal and he’ll be ready to start on Sunday. In last year’s postseason as a rookie, Starks rushed for 315 yards on 3.9 YPC in the four playoff wins. Ryan Grant (559 rush yds, 4.2 YPC, 2 TD) was injured during last year’s Super Bowl run, and was held to 29 yards on 13 carries in the 2008 NFC Championship loss to New York.

If turnovers decide this game, the edge likely goes to Green Bay, which has a ridiculous +24 turnover margin. New York has a strong +7 TO margin. But the Giants have committed 2+ turnovers eight times this season, while the Packers have just three such games, including zero multi-giveaway outputs in the past 11 games that Rodgers has played in.

[StarDust Bum]

Although this is a matchup of two great defenses, the FoxSheets thinks the Total is low enough to play on the OVER with this three-star coahing trend.

Gary Kubiak is 18-5 OVER (78.3%, +12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as the coach of HOUSTON. The average score was HOUSTON 23.3, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Houston rushed for 188 yards (5.4 YPC) in the playoff win over Cincinnati, with 153 of those coming from Arian Foster. He gained 6.4 YPC and scored twice. The Texans are averaging 161 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) over the past six weeks, while the Ravens have allowed 122 rushing YPG (4.3 YPC) in the past three games, considerably more than the 86 rushing YPG (3.3 YPC) they allowed in the first 13 games this year. Although Foster was held to 49 rushing yards (3.3 YPC) in Baltimore Week 6, he also gained 52 yards on six catches. Ben Tate was able to find more running room against Baltimore, carrying nine times for 41 yards (4.6 YPC). He finished the regular season with 942 yards (5.4 YPC) and gained 37 on nine carries in the win over Cincinnati.

Neither Yates nor WR Andre Johnson suited up for that Week 6 meeting, but both players performed at a high level against the Bengals. Yates completed 11-of-20 passes for 159 yards (8.0 YPA) and a 40-yard TD strike to Johnson to put the game out of reach in the third quarter. Johnson finished with five grabs for 90 yards, as he was targeted on nine of the 20 pass attempts. Johnson will be up against the Ravens 4th-best pass defense in the league (196 YPG), which has been incredibly stingy at home (51% completions, 171 YPG, 5.0 YPA). But the last time Johnson faced the Ravens (Dec. 2010), Johnso n exploded for nine catches, 140 yards and two touchdowns.

Flacco has already started seven playoff games in his first three NFL seasons, but none were at home. That’s a big reason for his subpar numbers in his postseason career: 98-of-184 (53%), 1,050 yards (150 YPG), 4 TD, 7 INT. Flacco had his second-highest YPA of the season (9.24 YPA) versus Houston though, when he connected on 20-of-33 passes for 305 yards. He did not throw a TD pass that game, but he has seven touchdown tosses over the past four weeks. With Boldin (knee) sitting out the season finale, Flacco threw 14 of his 19 passes to players, TE Dennis Pitta (6 rec, 62 yds, 1 TD) and WR Torrey Smith (5 rec, 33 yds). Smith had 84 receiving yards against the Texans this year, but if Boldin can’t go, Smith will likely be covered by Texans star CB Johnathan Joseph, who has played as well as any corner in the league in his first season in Houston. Joseph, who had seven tackles and an interception against Baltimore in Week 6, is the biggest reason Houston’s passing defense improved from last in the league in 2010 (268 YPG) to third-best this year (190 pass YPG).

Rice has struggled a bit in his playoff career, surpassing 70 rushing yards just once in five games. But he has been piling up yards since the start of December, totaling 809 yards (162 YPG) and five touchdowns in five games. But since giving up 113 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 6, Houston has allowed 110 yards just once in the past 11 games (88 rushing YPG).

[Kaptain]

get em Star Dust....thanks