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**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2012, 09:22 PM

Saints marching on to San Francisco

January 8, 2012

METAIRIE, La. (AP) - The New Orleans Saints are still undefeated at home and have lost just three times all season, so it might be a bit of nitpicking to say their performances on the road could be a potential downfall.

At least, coach Sean Payton feels that way, saying that's just people trying to find something wrong with his team.

After beating Detroit 45-28 in the Superdome in the NFC wild-card round, the Saints will travel to No. 2 seed San Francisco for their game next Saturday.

And of New Orleans' three road losses this season, two were on natural grass, the surface they'll play on at Candlestick Park, where the 49ers went 7-1.

However, receiver Robert Meachem says earlier road losses helped prepare them for this moment.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2012, 09:24 PM

Watt's play propels Texans to next round

January 8, 2012

HOUSTON (AP) - The Houston Texans see J.J. Watt make disruptive plays in practice all the time.

The 6-foot-5, 288-pound rookie defensive end is constantly swatting passes, and even intercepting a few. He finally hung onto one when it counted, in the biggest game of the year.

Watt's game-changing interception return for a touchdown on Saturday propelled the Texans (11-6) to a 31-10 win over Cincinnati and set up a matchup with Baltimore (12-4) in the next round of the playoffs.

``That was a huge momentum lift for us,'' linebacker DeMeco Ryans said. ``When J.J. got the touchdown, the confidence level rolls, everyone is excited and we continued to feed off that. J.J. provided for us that huge play that just catapulted us to take it to the next level.''

The 10-year-old Texans won their first playoff game, and now have the daunting task of facing Ray Lewis and the Ravens on their home field. Baltimore is 8-0 at M&T Bank Stadium this season, including a 29-14 win over Houston in Week 6.

They'll be underdogs, but history is actually on their side.

The Texans are one of six teams to join the NFL since the merger with the AFL in 1970. All six won their postseason debut, and the previous five (Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Seattle) all went on to reach the championship game in their respective conference. The Ravens won the Super Bowl after the 2000 season.

Following a resounding victory on Saturday, the Texans believe they can do it, too.

``We made history,'' Watt said. ``We're excited about another chance to make history up there in Baltimore.''

Houston limped into its first postseason after three straight losses to end the regular season, and many indications pointed to a quick exit. The Bengals controlled the clock and much of the first half on Saturday, though the Texans rallied to tie it at 10-all.

Then Watt, the Texans' first-round draft pick and a cornerstone of the rebuilt defense, leaped to snag Andy Dalton's pass and chugged 29 yards for a touchdown, sending the record crowd of 71,725 into a frenzy.

The Texans dominated the second half, with Andre Johnson catching a 40-yard touchdown pass from rookie T.J. Yates and Arian Foster punctuating the victory with a signature 42-yard TD run, tiptoeing down the sideline and easily pushing away Bengals safety Chris Crocker.

Yates looked as poised and sharp as he has in weeks, though he only completed 11 passes for 159 yards. And Johnson finally seemed like himself again, after missing nine games in this historic season with hamstring injuries.

``I'm just glad the hamstrings didn't talk to me,'' Johnson said.

Drafted in the first round of 2003 out of Miami, Johnson is the lone holdover from the middling stretch before coach Gary Kubiak took over, when the Texans mostly languished at the bottom of the AFC South, a favorite opponent for Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Johnson savored his shining moment on Saturday, then immediately started looking ahead to the next one.

``I can remember when I was a rookie like it was yesterday,'' Johnson said. ``It has been nine seasons, and it has gone by really fast. The college days were fun, and I was able to play in a couple of big games. But all I am thinking about is what is next for this organization.

``So we go to Baltimore next week, and we are going to try to go up there and do what we did (Saturday).''

Johnson missed the previous meeting with the Ravens with a right hamstring injury that required minor surgery. It was also the Texans' first game after star outside linebacker Mario Williams tore a chest muscle.

Houston led 14-13 in the third quarter, until the defense collapsed and the Ravens pulled away in the fourth. Foster mustered only 49 yards rushing, and the Texans were held to season lows in points and yards (293).

``They have been an excellent team all year long,'' Kubiak said of the Ravens. ``You have to go play at their place. So we understand. We went there earlier in the season, and we'll have to play as good as we can possibly play.''

The Texans said after Saturday's game that their late-season swoon actually benefitted them, because it reset everyone's focus. Suddenly, the team's confidence is restored and a return trip to Baltimore doesn't seem so intimidating.

``We've been there before, and it's not going to be anything new,'' linebacker Brian Cushing said. ``I'm sure it'll be a bit louder, with the playoff environment. They'll be excited, coming off a bye. But we'll be ready. Going up there, it's going to be a fun, exciting challenge. We're ready for it.''

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2012, 09:34 PM

NFL divisional playoffs odds: Opening line report

We talked to sportsbook oddsmakers to get their thinking behind opening lines for the NFL divisional playoffs.

No. 3 New Orleans Saints at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers, 4:30 p.m. Saturday

Wynn Las Vegas opening line: Saints -3 (-120), 46.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Saints -3.5, 47

Wynn sportsbook manager John Avello expects another flood of Saints money.

"We were thinking 3 and then we went to -3 (-120) after Saturday's performance," Avello told *********** after the Saints broke the postseason record with 626 total yards in their 45-28 thrashing of Detroit. "I don't know how we keep bettors off this team right now. I bet you I'll be at 3.5 pretty soon.

"The public loves the Saints, they see this offense and they just think they can score at will," he continued. "They're going to overlook the Niners because that team hasn't been in the playoffs in a while. They're the No. 2 seed, but in reality everybody believes the Saints are the No. 2 seed. I just think we're going to need San Fran. But we'll see how it turns out."

New Orleans has won and covered nine straight. With Drew Brees breaking records on a weekly basis, the Saints have averaged 44.3 points over their last four games.

Lions-Saints just soared over a record total for an NFL playoff game. Still, Avello said he opened Saints-Niners at 46.5 for two reasons: San Fran's No. 2-ranked defense (14.3 points allowed per game) and the style the Niners must play.

"San Fran cannot get into a shootout," he said.

No. 4 Denver Broncos at No. 1 New England Patriots, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opening line: Patriots -13.5, 50.5

BetOnline.com line as of laste Sunday: Patriots -13.5 (-120), 51

Some books already moved to 14.

Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, expects to follow suit.

“Looks like the money is going to push it to 14, but the question is where does it go from that point?” he told ***********.

Kornegay gave Denver its props, especially for its play-action passes, but noted the Broncos faced a depleted version of the Steelers on Sunday.

“It was a great win, but I’m not really sold on the Denver Broncos making a run to the Super Bowl,” he said.

When New England visited Denver on Dec. 18, the Pats rallied from a 16-7 deficit to win 41-23, covering as 7-point favorites. The game sailed over the 47.5 total.

Tom Brady threw for 320 yards and two TDs, and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski combined for 13 catches and 182 yards.

No. 3 Houston Texans at No. 2 Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. Sunday

Caesars Palace opening line: Ravens -7.5, 38.5

Wynn Las Vegas opening line: Ravens -7, 38.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Ravens -9 (+115), 37.5

Oddsmakers didn't overreact to Houston's 31-10 wild card win over Cincinnati.

"I'm still not sold on the Texans," Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment, told ***********. "The game wasn't nearly as lopsided as the final score indicated."

He opened Texans-Ravens at 7.5 because "the Ravens coming off a bye is worth at least one full point, and I think the hook will give us better balance than opening at just a TD."

Offshore books that opened the game at 7 quickly moved higher as Baltimore money poured in.

Avello also wasn't swayed by the Texans' first-ever playoff win.

“Arian Foster looked pretty good, that’s for sure,” he said. “But the Texans played at Baltimore in the middle of the season, the line was 7 and they lost by a couple touchdowns. It’s going to be tough for the Texans, and for T.J. Yates. He’ll find the going much more difficult.”

Avello based his opening line primarily on power ratings.

“I really don’t vary much by going with a lot of opinion at this point,” he said. “Our ratings say 7. The total has got to be on the low side. You can’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of scoring, not with the way the Ravens play at home. I think we’re where we need to be.”

It’s a matchup of Top-5 defenses. Baltimore allows 16.6 points per game (3rd), Houston 17.4 (4th).

When the teams met in Week 6 in Baltimore, Houston led 14-13 in the third quarter. But the Ravens dominated from that point, winning 29-14 as 7-point favorites. The score fell a half-point shy of the 43.5 total.

Joe Flacco threw for 305 yards, Ray Rice ran for 101 and Baltimore held Houston’s vaunted ground game to 3.7 yards per carry.

Matt Schaub quarterbacked the Texans that day. This time it will be the rookie Yates facing Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company.

Yates played efficiently on Saturday, going 11 of 20 for 159 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. He did throw one ill-advised pass Chris Crocker should have picked off.

Foster, who ran for 153 yards Saturday, was held to 49 yards on 15 carries in the Oct. 16 loss in Baltimore.

No. 4 New York Giants at No. 1 Green Bay Packers, 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opening line: Packers -9, 51.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Packers -9 (-105), 51.5

Offshores that opened anywhere but 9 quickly fell into line.

At first glance this seems like a big number. The Giants dismantled Atlanta on Sunday, their defense not allowing a point. And New York nearly upset Green Bay in Week 13.

But oddsmakers aren’t buying that it’s 2007 all over again.

“The Packers are going to be a little more creative than the Falcons,” Kornegay told ***********. “The Giants played well but I’m not going to get too excited about them because they haven’t put a string of good games together all year.

“Green Bay still remembers what happened a few years back [losing the NFC championship game 23-20 at home to New York],” he continued. “The Falcons were very conservative and didn’t make the right adjustments. We know the Packers are better coached than that.”

Kornegay said a total of 51 would “be on the short side and we’ll probably stay on the high side throughout the week, unless weather comes into play.”

In Week 13, these teams played a thriller at MetLife Stadium. Green Bay won 38-35, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. The game went over the 53.5 total by nearly 20 points.

They combined for 53 first downs and nearly 900 yards of offense.

Although it was their fourth straight loss, the Giants took heart from pushing the then-undefeated Super Bowl champs to the limit.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2012, 09:36 PM

Top 5 NFL Trends

NO
SF NO are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2012, 09:39 PM

Divisional Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3)

NFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 47

The Saints try to win their 10th straight game when they visit former division rival San Francisco with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake.

This will be a classic battle of offense versus defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a secondary that’s more about creating turnovers than limiting yards. Saints QB Drew Brees could take full advantage of that. San Francisco will try to control the clock with its power running game against a Saints defense that doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 YPC allowed). Who will win this matchup of the top two ATS records in the league, New Orleans (13-4 ATS, 77%) or San Francisco (11-4-1 ATS, 73%)? The ******* Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

The past four Saints games have all gone Over the Total, with an average of 64.5 points per game. This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

These teams met in Week 2 of the 2010 season, when the pre-Jim Harbuagh Niners were embarking on another disappointing year. They outplayed the Saints, holding Brees to 254 passing yards and out-gaining New Orleans 417-287. San Francisco led 14-9 early in the second half, but four turnovers did them in a 25-22 loss.

Brees has been incredible this season with 5,942 passing yards (350 YPG), 49 TD and 14 INT including his brilliant performance against Detroit last week (33-of-43, 466 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). New Orleans piled up an NFL playoff record 626 total yards in the win over the Lions. But the Saints are a different team away from their home turf (27.2 PPG, 4-4 ATS). But Brees has just 9 TD and 6 INT on grass surfaces this year, compared to 40 TD and 8 INT on turf. However, Brees has had no problem controlling the winds at Candlestick Park, completing 59-of-77 passes (77%) for 590 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in two career games in San Francisco. But Brees doesn’t have to win this game all by himself with a rushing attack averaging 175 YPG on 5.3 YPC in the past four games. Three different players rushed for 45+ yards against the Lions: Pierre Thomas (66 yards, 8.3 YPC), Darren Sproles (51 yards, 5.1 YPC) and Chris Ivory (47 yards, 3.6 YPC). This versatile ground game will be key against a 49ers team that led the NFL with 77 rushing YPG allowed.

The Saints allowed 380 passing yards in their win over Detroit last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ yards in their previous game this year. But the 49ers don’t try to beat teams through the air, attempting the second-fewest passes in the league this season (28.2 attempts per game). San Francisco quarterbacks have thrown only five interceptions all season, but have been sacked 44 times (7th-most in the NFL). QB Alex Smith has played nearly every snap, and has been much more effective in his home stadium (99.8 rating, 7.75 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) than he was on the road (82.7 rating, 6.46 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT). Smith is 0-3 all-time against the Saints though, sporting a 65.0 passer rating (6.17 YPA, 3 TD, 5 INT).

San Francisco is an unbeaten 7-0-1 ATS at home this season and 9-1 ATS on a grass surface. Much of that has to do with a rushing offense chewing up 128 rushing YPG (8th in the NFL) led by Frank Gore’s 1,211 yards on 4.3 YPC. In the past two meetings against the Saints, Gore has 194 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 87 receiving yards and 2 TD. Rookie Kendall Hunter has also stepped up in the past two games, rushing for 149 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC).

Another reason the 49ers have 13 wins this year, is due to their lack of turnovers. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (10), including a current ride of five straight games without an offensive turnover. And the defense has forced 12 turnovers during this turnover-less streak. The Saints also take care of the football very well, finishing tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league (17).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2012, 10:46 PM

Saints And 49ers Collide In San Francisco

The red-hot New Orleans Saints head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in this thrilling playoff divisional round matchup Saturday.

New Orleans is currently a 3½-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Saturday’s game is set to start at 4:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Both the Saints and the 49ers finished the regular season with 13-3 records, but San Francisco locked up the No. 2 seed by way of a stronger conference record tiebreaker. How much of a factor will venue play in this one? New Orleans is virtually unbeatable at home, amassing a 9-0 SU and ATS record in New Orleans while going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Saints also have history looming over their heads as they have never won a road playoff game in four tries.

Drew Brees and company hope to eradicate that black cloud hanging over the franchise. Brees carried the Saints to an easy 45-28 win over Detroit last week with a nearly flawless performance, passing for 466 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

No team in the NFL is hotter than the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won nine straight games, both SU and ATS, and have scored over 40 points the last four times out. Detractors will point out that all four of those games were inside of domes, and it is clear that the Saints play their best football indoors, but weather shouldn’t play much of a factor in Saturday’s contest with sunny skies and temps in the upper-50s for kickoff.

If the Saints struggle on offense, it will likely have a lot more to do with the Niners’ stingy defense.

San Francisco finished up their season 11-4-1 ATS, failing to cover as a 12½-point favorite on the road against St. Louis in their regular season finale. The 49ers put an ugly loss to Arizona behind them to close out the season with three straight wins, including the convincing 20-3 win over Pittsburgh at home on Monday Night Football.

The 49ers finished 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS at Candlestick Park this season, and the home crowd should be pretty revved up for the team’s first playoff game since 2002. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 14.3 points per game, and fourth in total defense allowing 308.2 yards per game. Jim Harbaugh’s smash-mouth defense has worked very well this season, and has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game.

It comes down to a textbook offense vs. a stonewalling defense and which team can control the tempo. If the 49ers take charge of the line of scrimmage, make Drew Brees uncomfortable and run the ball well with Frank Gore on offense, they have a great shot at winning outright. If New Orleans’ offense continues to roll like it has for the last four games, Alex Smith and the 49ers have little chance of keeping up.

New Orleans is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six games against San Francisco. The total has gone ‘under’ in eight of San Francisco’s last 11 games but has gone ‘over’ in each of New Orleans’ last four games. Saturday’s total is currently set at 47.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2012, 10:54 PM

Broncos And Tebow Big 'Dogs At New England Patriots

The never-say-die Denver Broncos hope to continue their miracle season when they visit the New England Patriots in a divisional round matchup on Saturday night.

Don Best has the just-released NFL odds and New England is a big 13½-point favorite with a total of 50½-51. CBS regains its normal AFC coverage at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

The Broncos (9-8 straight up, 8-9 against the spread) have the entire football world buzzing after their latest ‘Mile High Miracle,’ a 29-23 overtime win over Pittsburgh as 7½-point home ‘dogs. An 80-yard pass from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of OT was the dramatic conclusion. Tebow had 316 passing yards with three completions over 50 yards.

The win snapped the Broncos’ 3-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, although they previously backed into the AFC West title. Tebow was getting bashed in the national media after averaging 146.3 passing yards in those three losses, with many calling for a position change to fullback.

One of those losses came at home versus New England on Dec. 18. The Broncos dominated the Pats in the first quarter with 167 rushing yards. However, three second quarter turnovers turned a 16-7 lead into a 27-16 halftime deficit. Tebow and company were forced to play catch-up, not their strength, losing 41-23 win as 7-point home underdogs.

New England (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) coach Bill Belichick would never admit it, but he was the president of the Tebow fan club for at least one week. Belichick would much rather face Denver than Pittsburgh, who could have easily shredded the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense (294 YPG) even with Ben Roethlisberger on a bum ankle.

Belichick’s bunch earned the AFC’s top seed by virtue of the NFL’s third-ranked scoring offense (32.1 PPG). Playing a very physical Steelers team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and won it three years ago, would be anything but a reward.

The Patriots have far more pressure on them. They’ve lost the last two years in opening home playoff games to Baltimore (33-14) and the New York Jets (28-21) laying 3½ and 9½ points respectively. New England has dropped three straight playoff games overall including the crushing 2008 Super Bowl loss to the Giants (17-14) to ruin a perfect season.

Brady threw an early interception in that Jets game that turned momentum around. He also had three picks versus the Ravens. He’s mostly bothered by strong pass rushes up the middle so Denver needs to use that strategy and not just rely on the outside rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

The offensive game plan for New England could be no-huddle from the outset, getting Brady in rhythm and trying to force Denver to play from behind. Defensively, New England will not cheat up on the run like Pittsburgh, taking away the big pass from Tebow and forcing him to throw underneath. The inaccurate quarterback only completed 10-of-21 passes against Pitt and was 46.5 percent in the regular season (ranked last).

The Broncos feel they would have won the first meeting if not for turnovers and there is some merit in that. They want to run the ball first and foremost to keep Brady off the field. Their big matchup problem defensively is the young safeties against New England’s tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The bye week should be a big boost for the Patriots as long as they don’t come out flat. The extra time has allowed offensive guard Logan Mankins (knee) and tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) to both be probable after missing time.

The extra rest is also good for linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Patrick Chung, who each returned last game. Spikes is a very good run stuffer on early downs and Chung has been missed in the secondary most of the year. The team has experimented with Devin McCourty at safety next to Chung, but that leaves the corner position an even bigger question.

Denver has a lot of young legs and fatigue shouldn’t be a factor despite losing a day of preparation. Receiver Eric Decker (knee) is not expected to play and safety Brian Dawkins (neck) questionable at best. The veteran Dawkins is needed against this high-octane offense.

Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road with Tebow starting, but lost 40-14 at Buffalo in the last one right before Christmas.

New England is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this year, but 0-5 ATS in its last five home playoff games. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in its last nine divisional games.

Early weather predictions are clear, but in the 20s. The night game is an advantage for New England as the sometimes quiet Gillette Stadium should be rowdy with the extra tailgating time.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2012, 10:57 PM

Defenses Dominate Texans And Ravens Matchup

The Houston Texans put together about as good of a game as they could have asked for in their first ever postseason appearance last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. They’ll need that and probably a ton more if they want to win their first ever road playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional round of the postseason.

M&T Bank Stadium will be the site of Sunday afternoon’s game, which will kick off at 1:00 (ET). Live television coverage is set for CBS.

The Texans (11-6 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) came up with a 31-10 victory last Saturday in front of a Reliant Stadium record 71,725 fans who were attending their first NFL playoff tilt since 1993. It wasn’t the prettiest game in the world, but it was one in which the Texans did what they had to do to win. The defense scored a TD, the offense had the one long pass play that resulted in an Andre Johnson touchdown, and Arian Foster got the job done on the ground.

The defense did the rest. Cincinnati didn’t score in the final 37 minutes of the game, and only got into the Houston red zone once in that stretch. The Texans scored the final 24 points.

This ‘D’ is clearly the best in Texans history, as the unit ranked in the Top 5 in the game in scoring (17.4 PPG) and total yards allowed (285.7 YPG). Bringing in Wade Phillips has made all the difference, and it is remarkable how much better this unit is despite its best player, Mario Williams, not playing since the beginning of October.

Joe Flacco earned the moniker “Joe Cool” for the way that was able to go on the road and win playoff games. For the first time in his career though, the Ravens (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are going to be playing a home game in the postseason.

Flacco’s offense wasn’t all that great this year, ranking No. 15 in the league at 338.7 YPG, but he was able to win the games that counted most. Baltimore won six games against teams that made the playoffs, more than any other team. To put that in perspective, the New England Patriots, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, only played against three playoff teams.

Ray Rice is going to be the man of the hour for the Ravens. He has scored at least one TD in three of his last four playoff games, and averaged 112.3 YPG between rushing and receiving since taking over as the starting running back in 2009 in the postseason.

The Baltimore defense also ranked in the Top 5 in the league in every major category this year, and with men like Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs out there, Houston has plenty of reason to be concerned.

Earlier this year, the Ravens pummeled the Texans in this stadium, 29-14. Flacco threw for 305 yards, and Rice had a total of 161 yards. Houston didn’t have Johnson for that game, but did have Matt Schaub at quarterback. He only threw for 220 yards and a TD in the game, and you can bet that it is going to be a significantly tougher task for rookie TJ Yates, who is only starting in his sixth NFL game and his second in the postseason.

The Texans and Ravens have met five times since Houston came into existence. Baltimore holds a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS edge in this series. Three of the five games had final margins of victory of six points or fewer though, so there is hope for the Texans to at least compete in this game.

The Texans opened up as 7½-point underdogs on Saturday as soon as their Wild Card game went final, but that spread quickly jumped up to eight in Las Vegas and as many as nine at some spots offshorenine. The total opened at 38 but is sitting at 37½ early Monday morning.

The early weather forecast is calling for a cold, but otherwise relatively nice day on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid-30s, but there is no chance for rain or snow in the forecast.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2012, 11:03 PM

NY Giants Seek Upset At Green Bay Packers

The last time the New York Giants played the Super Bowl favorites tough during the regular season and got a rematch in the postseason, they won and ended a perfect season for the New England Patriots. The fourth-seeded Giants (10-7) will have a similar opportunity on Sunday when they visit the top-seeded Green Bay Packers (15-1) in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs.

The Packers nearly duplicated New England’s perfect regular season and will have revenge on their minds as well because they lost to New York the last time they hosted a playoff game in January 2008. New York beat Green Bay 23-20 in overtime, but star quarterback Aaron Rodgers was riding the pine back then because future Hall of Famer Brett Favre was under center for the Pack. That turned out to be Favre’s last year with Green Bay, and the rest is history.

New York’s Eli Manning went on to become the first NFC QB to lead his team to three straight road wins in the playoffs and advance to the Super Bowl, where the Giants edged the Patriots, 17-14. Rodgers followed suit last year, helping Green Bay win the Super Bowl title after earning three consecutive victories away from home.

The two Pro-Bowlers will meet for a second time this year at 4:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The Packers opened as 9-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with a total of 51. The total had already jumped as high as 52½ early Monday morning with some 8½-point spreads available.

New York was a 7½-point underdog when the Giants won the NFC Championship Game at Green Bay three years ago, but they were crushed 45-17 at Lambeau Field in their last visit to the land of cheeseheads during the 2010 regular season.

The Packers needed to win that game to get into the postseason, starting a 19-game winning streak for the defending champs that ended with a 19-14 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15. Green Bay also won 38-35 at New York in Week 13, as Rodgers led the game-winning drive in the final minute that resulted in a 30-yard field goal by kicker Mason Crosby.

Ironically, that is the exact same score of the 2007 regular-season finale when the Giants hosted New England and gained some confidence before their Super Bowl run. Manning led New York back from a 28-17 fourth-quarter deficit against the Packers earlier this year, with a 2-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and a 2-point conversion run by running back Danny Ware tying the game at 35-35 before Rodgers’ heroics. Rodgers finished with 369 passing yards and four touchdowns while Manning had 347 and three scores.

Manning had another big game on Sunday in a 24-2 win over the Atlanta Falcons in the Wild Card round. He threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns, two of which went to Nicks who had a game-high 115 receiving yards. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw also ran the ball well, totaling 155 rushing yards on 28 carries between them. Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for 110 yards on 37 carries with one touchdown apiece in their last playoff game at Lambeau.

Green Bay has won 13 in a row at home, going 11-2 against the spread in those games. The Giants have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the ‘under’ cashing in the past four. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 8-2 in the past 10 overall for the Packers.

The early weather forecast for Green Bay on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 28 cooling down to 20 with a few snow showers possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2012, 11:21 PM

Divisional Playoff Trends

January 9, 2012

After expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And while a Wild Card team has done so only seven times in Super Bowl history, five such winners have been crowned since 1997.

Last year witnessed the Packers hauling home the hardware. In 2007 it was the New York Giants, in 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers, in 2000 the Baltimore Ravens and in 1997 the Denver Broncos.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? With both of the No.1 seeds owning the league’s worst defenses, a strong case might certainly be made for New Orleans to continue in red-hot mode. Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.

All results are since 1990 and are ATS, unless noted otherwise…

Top Seeds Generally Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 19-2 SU and 15-6 ATS, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS versus a foe off a spread win of more than 13 points in its Wild Card game.

Top seeds from the AFC have struggled, going 12-9 SU and 8-13 ATS, including 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back wins.

Success Breeds Success

Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 38-9 SU and 29-17-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 7-34 SU and 15-24-1 ATS in this round.

Put one up against the other – an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year – and these hosts respond with aplomb, going an eye-opening 16-0 SU and 12-3-1 ATS.

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky, especially if they grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 15-36 SU and 20-29-1 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a disgusting 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.

There you have it. A trio of time-tested theories to help guide you through the NFL Divisional Round games this week. Do the math, figure them out and play accordingly. The exercise should help expand your mind and your bank account.

Good luck as always.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 06:47 PM

Division Playoff Preview: Giants at Packers

NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (15-1)

NFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 52.5

The Giants aim for a fourth straight win and a berth in the NFC Championship Game when they visit a 15-1 Packers team that has beaten them twice in the past 13 months.

After nearly ending the Packers’ perfect regular season in Week 13, the Giants get their rematch with Green Bay. That first game was played in New Jersey, and QB Aaron Rodgers moved the ball at will when he needed to. In five playoff games, Rodgers has completed 68% of his passes for 303 YPG and a 112.6 passer rating (13 TD, 3 INT). Eli Manning was picked off four times in his last visit to Green Bay in December 2010, but he beat Brett Favre’s Packers in the 2007 NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. With last Sunday’s win, Manning is now 5-3 with an 84.9 rating (11 TD, 7 INT) in his postseason career. Which one of these Super Bowl MVP-winning quarterbacks will prevail on Sunday? The ******* Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

These teams have played four straight (and six of seven) meetings going Over the total. And this pair of rare five-star FoxSheets trends also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.

Play Over - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (73-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.7%, +49.9 units. Rating = 5*).

Mike McCarthy is 13-1 OVER (92.9%, +11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 33.7, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 5*).

Manning has been on fire over the past two weeks, completing 47-of-65 passes (72%) for 623 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT. He also lit up the Packers in Week 13 for 347 yards (8.68 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT. WR Hakeem Nicks was his main man against Atlanta last Sunday, catching five of the nine passes thrown his way and gaining 115 yards and 2 TD, the last one measuring 72 yards. Mario Manningham caught the other touchdown while Victor Cruz was finally held in check (two catches, 28 yards). Cruz finished the regular season with 342 yards and 2 TD in his final two contests, and had a game-high 119 receiving yards in the December meeting with Green Bay. Nicks also scored twice on the Packers secondary in Week 13. The Pack allow the most passing yards in the entire league (300 YPG), a number that has risen to 319 YPG over the past seven games. To be fair, Green Bay rested some of its starters when it surrendered 502 yards in the season-finale win over Detroit.

The Giants had 100 rushing yards on 20 carries in their Week 13 matchup with the Packers, which is more than they usually gain (89 YPG, last in NFL). Brandon Jacobs ran for 59 of those yards on just eight carries (7.4 YPC) and a one-yard touchdown, while Ahmad Bradshaw was limited to 38 yards on 11 attempts (3.5 YPC). Both backs tore up the Falcons last Sunday as Jacobs ran for 92 yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and Bradshaw tallied 63 yards, also on 14 carries (4.5 YPC). Green Bay had allowed seven straight teams to rush for 100 yards before Detroit gained just 73 (4.9 YPC) in the season finale.

Rodgers is coming off perhaps the best season of all-time, setting an NFL record for passer rating (122.5), while throwing for 4,643 yards (310 YPG), 45 TD and 6 INT. He completed 28-of-46 passes for 369 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT in the road win over New York, getting all his receivers in the act. WR Greg Jennings, who is probable with a knee injury, had a touchdown and 94 receiving yards and that day, the same amount of yards as WR Jordy Nelson, who caught all four passes thrown his way. Veteran WR Donald Driver pitched in with two touchdown grabs against the New York secondary, the second one with 3:35 left in regulation, while TE Jermichael Finley finished with six catches for 87 yards. The Giants will have a hard time keeping track of all these weapons, especially because they allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this year (255 YPG).

The Packers’ rushing attack has been suspect, surpassing 105 yards just once in the season’s final eight games, but RB James Starks (578 rush yds, 4.3 YPC) has had plenty of time for his ankle to heal and he’ll be ready to start on Sunday. In last year’s postseason as a rookie, Starks rushed for 315 yards on 3.9 YPC in the four playoff wins. Ryan Grant (559 rush yds, 4.2 YPC, 2 TD) was injured during last year’s Super Bowl run, and was held to 29 yards on 13 carries in the 2008 NFC Championship loss to New York.

If turnovers decide this game, the edge likely goes to Green Bay, which has a ridiculous +24 turnover margin. New York has a strong +7 TO margin. But the Giants have committed 2+ turnovers eight times this season, while the Packers have just three such games, including zero multi-giveaway outputs in the past 11 games that Rodgers has played in.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 06:49 PM

Division Playoff Preview: Broncos at Patriots

DENVER BRONCOS (9-8)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-3)

AFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -13.5, Total: 50.5

The Broncos are just one game away from the AFC Championship, but they have quite a tall task in getting there, as they’ll have to beat a red-hot Patriots team (eight straight wins) on their home field Saturday night.

The Patriots won easily in Denver in Week 15, 41-23, as Tom Brady threw for 320 of his team’s 451 total yards of offense. New England allowed Tim Tebow to make plays with his legs (93 yards), but the Pats didn’t let him beat them with his arm (194 yards). Five of Tebow’s 10 completions against the Steelers on Sunday went for 30 yards or more; expect New England’s safeties to sit back and play more conservatively than Pittsburgh’s did. The Patriots not only haven’t won a postseason game since 2008, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in their past six playoff games. Can the Patriots end this long ATS skid with a two-touchdown victory, or will they be tested by the Broncos on Saturday night? The ******* Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

Four of the past six meetings in Foxboro have finished Under the total and this three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the UNDER for Saturday’s game.

Bill Belichick is 10-1 UNDER (90.9%, +8.9 Units) in home games after a bye week as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 18.3, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Tebow completed 11-of-22 passes for 194 yards (8.82 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT against New England, but he has thrived on the road this season. In regular-season games only, Tebow has an 88.4 passer rating (7.5 YPA, 9 TD, 3 INT) on the road, compared to a 61.0 rating (5.5 YPA, 3 TD, 3 INT) at home. The Patriots have allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL (294 YPG) this year, but Denver was one of two teams not to pass for a net of 215 yards against them. WR Demaryius Thomas was Sunday’s hero, scoring an 80-yard TD in overtime against Pittsburgh and finishing his day with 204 yards on four catches. Thomas also had seven receptions for 116 yards against New England, and will be targeted more with leading WR Eric Decker (612 rec. yds, 8 TD) out for this game with a knee injury sustained against Pittsburgh.

The Broncos have the NFL’s top rushing attack this year, gaining 165 YPG during the regular season. They ran up 252 yards four games ago on New England’s below-average run defense (117 YPG, 17th in league), as Tebow (93 yards, 7.8 YPC), Willis McGahee (70 yards, 10.0 YPC) and Lance Ball (64 yards, 5.8 YPC) all contributed significant ground production. But McGahee and Ball combined for just 72 yards on 23 carries (3.1 YPC) last week against Pittsburgh as McGahee fumbled twice, losing a key possession in the fourth quarter.

Brady is 14-5 in his playoff career, but he hasn’t been particularly sharp in his past three postseason games, all losses (5.3 YPA, 5 TD, 4 INT). This season has been a different story though, as he has thrown for an AFC record 5,325 yards to go with his 39 TD and 12 INT (105.6 rating). Brady has only tossed two interceptions in his past eight games, and the rest of the team has committed just one turnover in this eight-game span. WR Wes Welker leads the team with 1,569 receiving yards, TE Rob Gronkowski caught 17 TD passes, and TE Aaron Hernandez finished with 910 receiving yards and seven scores. Hernandez had a huge game in Denver in Week 15, catching nine passes for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos have a subpar pass defense (232 YPG), that allowed Pittsburgh to throw for 244 yards on them last week.

New England has also done a better job rushing the football in the past three games, totaling 398 yards (133 YPG). Denver has the 22nd-ranked run defense (126 YPG), which could allow for the Patriots to find some room to run. BenJarvus Green-Ellis leads the team with 667 rushing yards and 11 TD, while rookie Stevan Ridley has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his 87 attempts this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 06:50 PM

Division Playoff Preview: Texans at Ravens

HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4)

AFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -7.5, Total: 35.5

The Texans won their first-ever playoff game last week, and on Sunday they’ll try to beat Baltimore for the first time ever.

The Ravens (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS all-time versus the Texans) used a big second half to pull away from Houston 29-14 the first time they met, Week 6 in Baltimore. And Houston still had starting QB Matt Schaub in the lineup. The Texans running game failed to get it going (93 yards, 3.7 YPC) against the Ravens’ elite run D that day, and Houston rookie QB T.J. Yates needs a successful running game. The third-stringer will have a tough time moving the ball in Baltimore, where opposing quarterbacks had a league-low 58.8 passer rating this season. The Ravens outgained the Texans 402-293, and won despite a minus-2 in the turnover department. Houston has the secondary to limit QB Joe Flacco, especially with WR Anquan Boldin, who burned Houston for 132 yards in their first meeting, breaking down physically. Stopping RB Ray Rice (101 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards in their first meeting) will be a whole other issue. The Ravens went undefeated SU at home this season, but were just 4-3-1 ATS. Houston was 10-4 SU (10-3-1 ATS) on grass surfaces. Which defense will propel its team to victory on Sunday? The ******* Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

Although this is a matchup of two great defenses, the FoxSheets thinks the Total is low enough to play on the OVER with this three-star coahing trend.

Gary Kubiak is 18-5 OVER (78.3%, +12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as the coach of HOUSTON. The average score was HOUSTON 23.3, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Houston rushed for 188 yards (5.4 YPC) in the playoff win over Cincinnati, with 153 of those coming from Arian Foster. He gained 6.4 YPC and scored twice. The Texans are averaging 161 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) over the past six weeks, while the Ravens have allowed 122 rushing YPG (4.3 YPC) in the past three games, considerably more than the 86 rushing YPG (3.3 YPC) they allowed in the first 13 games this year. Although Foster was held to 49 rushing yards (3.3 YPC) in Baltimore Week 6, he also gained 52 yards on six catches. Ben Tate was able to find more running room against Baltimore, carrying nine times for 41 yards (4.6 YPC). He finished the regular season with 942 yards (5.4 YPC) and gained 37 on nine carries in the win over Cincinnati.

Neither Yates nor WR Andre Johnson suited up for that Week 6 meeting, but both players performed at a high level against the Bengals. Yates completed 11-of-20 passes for 159 yards (8.0 YPA) and a 40-yard TD strike to Johnson to put the game out of reach in the third quarter. Johnson finished with five grabs for 90 yards, as he was targeted on nine of the 20 pass attempts. Johnson will be up against the Ravens 4th-best pass defense in the league (196 YPG), which has been incredibly stingy at home (51% completions, 171 YPG, 5.0 YPA). But the last time Johnson faced the Ravens (Dec. 2010), Johnso n exploded for nine catches, 140 yards and two touchdowns.

Flacco has already started seven playoff games in his first three NFL seasons, but none were at home. That’s a big reason for his subpar numbers in his postseason career: 98-of-184 (53%), 1,050 yards (150 YPG), 4 TD, 7 INT. Flacco had his second-highest YPA of the season (9.24 YPA) versus Houston though, when he connected on 20-of-33 passes for 305 yards. He did not throw a TD pass that game, but he has seven touchdown tosses over the past four weeks. With Boldin (knee) sitting out the season finale, Flacco threw 14 of his 19 passes to players, TE Dennis Pitta (6 rec, 62 yds, 1 TD) and WR Torrey Smith (5 rec, 33 yds). Smith had 84 receiving yards against the Texans this year, but if Boldin can’t go, Smith will likely be covered by Texans star CB Johnathan Joseph, who has played as well as any corner in the league in his first season in Houston. Joseph, who had seven tackles and an interception against Baltimore in Week 6, is the biggest reason Houston’s passing defense improved from last in the league in 2010 (268 YPG) to third-best this year (190 pass YPG).

Rice has struggled a bit in his playoff career, surpassing 70 rushing yards just once in five games. But he has been piling up yards since the start of December, totaling 809 yards (162 YPG) and five touchdowns in five games. But since giving up 113 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 6, Houston has allowed 110 yards just once in the past 11 games (88 rushing YPG).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 06:52 PM

Divisional Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3)

NFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3.5, Total: 47.5

The Saints try to win their 10th straight game when they visit former division rival San Francisco with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake.

This will be a classic battle of offense versus defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a secondary that’s more about creating turnovers than limiting yards. Saints QB Drew Brees could take full advantage of that. San Francisco will try to control the clock with its power running game against a Saints defense that doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 YPC allowed). Who will win this matchup of the top two ATS records in the league, New Orleans (13-4 ATS, 77%) or San Francisco (11-4-1 ATS, 73%)? The ******* Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

The past four Saints games have all gone Over the Total, with an average of 64.5 points per game. This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

These teams met in Week 2 of the 2010 season, when the pre-Jim Harbuagh Niners were embarking on another disappointing year. They outplayed the Saints, holding Brees to 254 passing yards and out-gaining New Orleans 417-287. San Francisco led 14-9 early in the second half, but four turnovers did them in a 25-22 loss.

Brees has been incredible this season with 5,942 passing yards (350 YPG), 49 TD and 14 INT including his brilliant performance against Detroit last week (33-of-43, 466 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). New Orleans piled up an NFL playoff record 626 total yards in the win over the Lions. But the Saints are a different team away from their home turf (27.2 PPG, 4-4 ATS). But Brees has just 9 TD and 6 INT on grass surfaces this year, compared to 40 TD and 8 INT on turf. However, Brees has had no problem controlling the winds at Candlestick Park, completing 59-of-77 passes (77%) for 590 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in two career games in San Francisco. But Brees doesn’t have to win this game all by himself with a rushing attack averaging 175 YPG on 5.3 YPC in the past four games. Three different players rushed for 45+ yards against the Lions: Pierre Thomas (66 yards, 8.3 YPC), Darren Sproles (51 yards, 5.1 YPC) and Chris Ivory (47 yards, 3.6 YPC). This versatile ground game will be key against a 49ers team that led the NFL with 77 rushing YPG allowed.

The Saints allowed 380 passing yards in their win over Detroit last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ yards in their previous game this year. But the 49ers don’t try to beat teams through the air, attempting the second-fewest passes in the league this season (28.2 attempts per game). San Francisco quarterbacks have thrown only five interceptions all season, but have been sacked 44 times (7th-most in the NFL). QB Alex Smith has played nearly every snap, and has been much more effective in his home stadium (99.8 rating, 7.75 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) than he was on the road (82.7 rating, 6.46 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT). Smith is 0-3 all-time against the Saints though, sporting a 65.0 passer rating (6.17 YPA, 3 TD, 5 INT).

San Francisco is an unbeaten 7-0-1 ATS at home this season and 9-1 ATS on a grass surface. Much of that has to do with a rushing offense chewing up 128 rushing YPG (8th in the NFL) led by Frank Gore’s 1,211 yards on 4.3 YPC. In the past two meetings against the Saints, Gore has 194 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 87 receiving yards and 2 TD. Rookie Kendall Hunter has also stepped up in the past two games, rushing for 149 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC).

Another reason the 49ers have 13 wins this year, is due to their lack of turnovers. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (10), including a current ride of five straight games without an offensive turnover. And the defense has forced 12 turnovers during this turnover-less streak. The Saints also take care of the football very well, finishing tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league (17).

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