The Bum's NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets !

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Wild Card Preview: Steelers at Broncos

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

at DENVER BRONCOS (8-8)


AFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -8.5, Total: 33.5

The Broncos try to stop a three-game slide, but it won’t be easy when a red-hot Steelers team, 10-2 in its past dozen games, visits Denver on Sunday.

The NFL has caught up to Tim Tebow. Against the Bills and Chiefs the past two weeks, Tebow completed 37.3% of his passes for 245 yards, rushed for 50, and turned it over six times while leading the Broncos to just 17 points. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau figures to have no problem limiting Denver’s offense. But the Steelers have a rash of injuries that will limit them. QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is less than 100%, and the Pittsburgh offense has managed just 30 points in his three starts since he got hurt. And now RB Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and FS Ryan Clark (high altitude condition) are both out. Denver’s defense is usually tough at home, limiting three of its past four visitors to 13, 10 and 7 points, and the Steelers are just 2-6 ATS on the road this year. With this contest figuring to be a defensive struggle, the pick here is home underdog DENVER to keep the final score within a touchdown spread.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Broncos:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a playing a game where 10 total points or less were scored. (30-11 since 1983.) (73.2%, +17.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road favorites (PITTSBURGH) - excellent offensive team (>=370 YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games. (57-27 since 1983.) (67.9%, +27.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The Steelers have played six straight games Under the total, and this game should be low-scoring as well. But the FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the OVER on such a low Total.

Play Over - Any team where the total is 35 or less (PITTSBURGH, DENVER) - in January games. (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Steelers have been a great bet in the playoffs, going 10-3 (9-4 ATS) in 13 postseason games with Roethlisberger. His ankle has gotten better, but it has clearly affected his play over the past two weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger faced two great pass defenses with San Francisco and Cleveland, but he completed just 48-of-84 passes (57%) for 551 yards (6.56 YPA), 0 TD and 3 INT in these two contests. That drops his passer rating to a subpar 77.5 on the road this year (7 TD, 10 INT). However, the thin air has always suited Roethlisberger well. In three career games in Denver, which includes a 34-17 playoff win in 2006, he has completed 66-of-93 passes (71%) for 798 yards (8.58 YPA), 9 TD and 3 INT.

Mendenhall, who rushed for 155 yards (7.0 YPC) in his last trip to Denver in 2009, will certainly be missed in the running game. Second-year man Isaac Redman will start in Mendenhall’s place and try to build on a strong 92-yard performance at Cleveland last week. For the season, Redman has 479 rushing yards on a healthy 4.4 YPC, and Denver’s defense allows 126 rushing YPG, including 147 YPG in the past six contests.

Denver is making its first playoff appearance since losing at home to Pittsburgh nearly six years ago. The Broncos have really hurt themselves with turnovers, posting a minus-8 TO margin during the three-game skid. But they still have the league’s top rushing offense at 165 YPG, and have gained 601 yards on 5.3 YPC in the past three contests. RB Willis McGahee showed that he is fully healed from his hamstring injury, rushing 28 times for 145 yards versus the Chiefs last week. However, McGahee has faced Pittsburgh’s defense eight times in his career, and hasn’t fared too well, rushing for 270 yards on 3.5 YPC and 5 TD. The Steelers rank eighth in the NFL in rushing defense (100 YPG), and have held nine of their past 10 opponents under 110 yards. The loss of Clark and the potential absence of LB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) will benefit Denver, but Tebow doesn’t figure to attempt many passes against the Steelers who lead the NFL with 172 passing YPG allowed.

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Forgot to post here yesterday but this was my results:

But this is how i did.......Daily Pick record for 01/07/2012

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units

NFL Cincinnati 10 Cincinnati +4 500 LOSS -550

Houston 31 Over 38 500 WON +500

NFL Detroit 28 New Orleans -10.5 500 WON +500

New Orleans 45 Over 59.5 500 WON +500

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Sunday, January 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3 500

N.Y. Giants - Over 47.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:30 PM ET Denver +9 500

Denver - Under 33.5 500

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Steelers at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+9, 33.5)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the playoffs with running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the season with a knee injury and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hobbled by a high ankle sprain. So, it begs the obvious question for pundits as the Steelers prepare to visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night in an AFC wild card matchup: Is Roethlisberger more effective on one leg than Tim Tebow is on two? Tebow, as has been the case all season, will again be under the microscope when he leads Denver into its first playoff game since the 2005 season. The much-maligned Tebow directed the Broncos to six consecutive wins, including four fourth-quarter comebacks, but the wheels have come off during a three-game losing streak.

TV: CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Pittsburgh opened as low as -7.5 and has been bet up to -9. The total opened at 34.5 and has come down to 33.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Denver is calling for clear skies and game-time temperatures in the low 30s.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-4, 7-9 ATS): Pittsburgh was in contention for the No. 1 seed entering last weekend. Roethlisberger said he aggravated his ankle in the win at Cleveland and has struggled since suffering the initial injury in Week 14, but the Steelers have their defense to fall back upon. Pittsburgh allowed a league-low 227 points and has held five of its last six opponents under 10 points. During that span, the Steelers did now permit a touchdown in four of the games. Isaac Redman stepped in for Mendenhall and ran for a career-high 92 yards last week. Although Roethlisberger has struggled since hurting the ankle, he has won two Super Bowls and lost in last season’s title game to Green Bay.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-8, 7-9 ATS): The Tebow magic appears to have run out, particularly in back-to-back losses to the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. His passer ratings in those games were ghastly – 37.9 and 20.6, respectively. Tebow was wretched in last week’s 7-3 home defeat against the Chiefs, throwing for only 60 yards on 6-of-22 passing. He has been intercepted four times in the last two weeks and has committed 10 turnovers in the last five games. Expect the Broncos to lean heavily on running back Willis McGahee, who rumbled for 1,199 yards this season. McGahee, however, struggled against the Steelers in three seasons with Baltimore, managing only 183 yards on 61 attempts in six games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Roethlisberger has a 10-3 career record in the postseason.

2. The Broncos and Steelers have split six playoff matchups. The winner went to the Super Bowl on five of those occasions.

3. “People say he can’t throw the ball, he can’t do this. He finds a way to win.” – Roethlisberger on Tebow.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Broncos 13. Pittsburgh’s defense overwhelms Tebow and sends Denver to a fourth straight loss.

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NFL Underdogs: Wild card pointspread picks

Perception is a funny thing. Two people can look at one thing and come away with completely different outlooks.

Some people watched Avatar and thought it was the artistic achievement of decade. I saw it and wanted my money back.

Maybe I need to put on 3-D glasses to see what NFL executives see in Josh McDaniels. It seems the St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator is a hot commodity.

Yup, the man in charge of the league’s lowest scoring offense is being courted by the New England Patriots and there are rumors the Kansas City Chiefs are interested in his services, too.

McDaniels is still living off the coattails of that magical season when he was calling the plays for the record-setting 2007-08 New England Patriots. Tom Brady threw for 50 TDs, Randy Moss caught 23 of them, and the Pats averaged 36.8 points per game.

Since then, well, things haven’t gone as well for Boy Wonder.

In his first year as Denver’s head coach, the Broncos won their first six games but lost eight of their last 10 and didn’t make the playoffs. He got the pink slip after a 3-9 start the following season and we all know about how bad the Rams were with McDaniels running the offense.

If my math is right, teams with McDaniels on their staff are 7-31 straight up and 10-27-1 against the spread since November, 2009.

Suddenly my pick record isn’t looking so bad. Speaking of that, let’s get down to business.

Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the wild card round over the last two playoffs, but I don’t think that trend will continue this year. I’m pussing out and picking some favorites now that we’re in the playoffs, but I will man up and pick every playoff game from here on out.

I’m feeling confident. I think these playoff pointspreads are formed as finely as Shakira’s backside. Let’s make some money.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3.5)

I bet this game earlier in the week at Houston -3, but by Friday morning everyone was dealing 3.5. Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director John Avello seemed surprised by the amount of action that came in on the Texans after QB T.J. Yates was upgraded to probable.

I told him it probably had less to do with Yates and more to do with his would-be replacement, Jake Delhomme.

The Texans possess one of the league’s best defenses, running games and offensive lines. They don’t need Yates to win the game; they just need him to take care of the ball and avoid a Delhomme-like performance (read turnover filled).

Pick: Texans -3.5

Detroit Lions (+10.5) at New Orleans Saints

It’s tough to beat the same team twice in one season, let alone by double digits each time. Detroit will make some adjustments and keep this one close.

Pick: Lions +10.5

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3)

Seems like every week I’ve been on the wrong side in Atlanta games. This much I do know: The Falcons don’t run the ball as well as they used to and they don’t play well on the road.

Against Justin Tuck and Co., the Falcons’ weak offensive line will be as exposed as Kris Humphries’ extreme homophobia.



Pick: Giants -3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+9)

It’s clear with a total this low (33.5), no one is expecting many points. As awful as Denver has looked over the past few weeks, it’s not hard to picture the club covering in a 13-9 type of game.

Pick: Broncos +9

Last week: 2-1
Season record: 29-23-1

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Top 5 NFL Trends

PIT
DEN Under is 6-0 in PIT last 6 games overall.

PIT
DEN Under is 6-0 in PIT last 6 games on grass.

ATL
NYG ATL are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York.

PIT
DEN Under is 5-0 in PIT last 5 games following a S.U. win.

ATL
NYG NYG are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

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New York Giants Host Atlanta Falcons NFL Playoffs

Two NFC teams that took very different paths to the playoffs will meet on Sunday when the New York Giants host the Atlanta Falcons in a Wild Card matchup.

The fourth-seeded Giants (9-7) needed to beat Dallas 31-14 on Sunday Night Football to win the NFC East, while the Falcons (10-6) avoided a third meeting with New Orleans by routing Tampa Bay 45-24 last week to claim the fifth seed after finishing second to the Saints in the NFC South.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. New York opened as a 3-point favorite and has remained there with the total falling from 48½ to a low of 47.

Some of that early action on the total might have something to do with the weather forecast that calls for a high temperature of 43 and a 40 percent chance of showers in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the home of MetLife Stadium.

The Giants were one of the hardest teams to figure out during the regular season, winning six of their first eight games only to lose five of six before finishing up with consecutive victories. Led by quarterback Eli Manning, who threw for nearly 5,000 yards (4,933) and 29 touchdowns, New York seemed to be at its best offensively when running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were both healthy.

Wide receiver Victor Cruz also emerged this season in just his second year, setting a franchise record for receiving yards with 1,536 and scoring nine touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Atlanta was the top seed in the NFC a year ago but lost at home to Green Bay and hopes to atone for that disappointing ending this postseason. The Falcons rebounded from a 2-3 start in 2011 that saw them fail to cover the spread four times in five games, going 8-4 the rest of the way. Their 23-16 win at Detroit in Week 7 kept them from visiting New Orleans. The team had a balanced offense during the regular season behind QB Matt Ryan (4,177 passing yards and 29 touchdowns) and RB Michael Turner (1,340 rushing yards and 11 TDs) and owned the NFL’s sixth-ranked run defense, allowing 97 yards per game.

Atlanta has dropped the last three meetings with the Giants, the latest coming in a 34-31 overtime loss on the road back in 2009. New York won the previous two meetings away from home and covered the spread in both.

The Giants are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games overall with the total going ‘under’ in the last three, all between 45 and 48 points. The Falcons are 3-1 straight up and ATS in their past four overall with the ‘over’ cashing each time.

Atlanta could be without starting linebacker Stephen Nicholas who is listed as doubtful on the Don Best injury report due to a bum knee suffered in the Dec. 15 game against the Jaguars. New York's two biggest injury concerns, halfback Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) and defensive end Justin Tuck (shoulder) are both listed as probable.

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Steelers Favored In Battle With Denver Broncos

Even the most diehard of Denver fans can be excused for wondering how their favorite team ever managed to qualify for the playoffs. But the Broncos are indeed into the postseason for the first time in six years as the AFC West champions, one of the most unlikely developments we can recall in recent pro football annals.

How long Denver lasts in the playoffs is another question. The fun might not last beyond Sunday, when the Broncos (8-8 straight up, 7-9 against the spread) host Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. A quick check of the Don Best odds screen notes that money at Las Vegas wagering outlets has generally been flowing in the Steelers’ direction since Sunday night, with Mike Tomlin’s team listed as an 8½-point favorite at most sports books at midweek. The total is mostly sitting at a rather-low 34 points.

TV coverage will be provided by CBS, with the network’s top broadcast team of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on hand to describe the action.

Although Denver is in the postseason, we are hard-pressed to recall a postseason entrant looking any worse in recent memory. The Broncos absolutely backed into the playoffs on the heels of a season-ending 3-game losing streak, saved in the end by Oakland’s loss to San Diego on the final weekend which awarded the AFC West to Denver almost by default. Tiebreaking procedures (which had to progress to the "results in common games" stage) broke the 3-way deadlock between the Raiders, Chargers and Denver in the Broncos’ favor.

During their earlier and very improbable 6-game win streak that roughly coincided with Tim Tebow’s entrance into the lineup as the starting QB, the Broncos were able to parlay a low-risk offense and Tebow’s playmaking ability to pull out several unlikely wins in the late going. Tebow has three overtime wins to his credit, and head coach John Fox deserves loads of credit for changing the Bronco offensive formula to fit Tebow, introducing the read-option and a ground-based assault that caught several foes unsuspecting in the win streak.

Opposing stop units, however, seem to have caught on to the Denver recipe, and have been playing much better assignment defense in recent weeks. The read-option is not a major element of the Bronco offensive package these days that mostly relies upon between-the-tackles pounding by RB Willis McGahee instead.

The Broncos were also playing rather mistake-free football in their uptick, but that hasn’t been the case in the current three-game losing streak in which Denver has been guilty of nine giveaways. That’s hard enough for a team such as Green Bay or New Orleans to overcome; for the Broncos, it’s almost impossible.

Moreover, Denver was banged up down the stretch, especially in the secondary, where vet Brian Dawkins has been battling a pinched nerve in his neck in recent weeks, sometimes requiring Fox to start a pair of rookies (Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter) at the safety spots. Offensively, Fox has injury concerns, too, especially regarding FB Spencer Larsen and OG Chris Kuper, both hurt last week vs. the Chiefs. Their absence would not help the Broncos’ ground-based formula this week.

Assuming Denver is fortunate to be here, we must also wonder if Pittsburgh is in any condition to take advantage. The Steelers have been hurting in recent weeks, too, especially QB Ben Roethlisberger, alternately held out and severely limited in recent weeks after a left ankle sprain suffered vs. the Browns on December 8. Big Ben’s passing accuracy has left something to be desired in his compromised state.

Further, top RB Rashard Mendenhall went down with a season-ending knee injury last week at Cleveland, though Isaac Redman was serviceable in relief vs. the Browns when gaining 92 yards on the ground. The Steelers will also be without safety Ryan Clark, who will sit out this game due to past serious health complications resulting from games at the higher Denver altitude.

Still, it is tough to envision Tebow, who completed just six of his 22 passes last week vs. the Chiefs, burning Dick LeBeau’s zone-blitzing defense, which ranked tops in the NFL. Steelers OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley figure to keep tabs on Tebow and his improvising, while S Troy Polamalu could wreak havoc for Denver’s run-centric offense as he hangs around the line of scrimmage.

The keys to this battle are likely when Pittsburgh has the ball. Big Ben, who can at least avoid traffic when playing on two good wheels, can’t be expected to even do that much in his current condition, which could pose problems vs. an active Bronco pass rush that’s adept at collapsing the pocket from the edge with Elvis Dumervil and rookie LB sensation Von Miller, who have combined for 21 sacks.

Thus, don’t be surprised for the Steelers to spread the field and rely mostly on short, quick drops by Roethlisberger out of the shotgun to help avoid the Denver pass rush. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will want Roethlisberger to probe Denver’s nickel and dime backs as much as possible and not risk too much against veteran big-play corners Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman. The Broncos will like their chances if they can win the turnover battle, which was their m.o. through most of their six-game win streak.

Denver can be run against, too, but it remains to be seen how effective the Steelers can be without Mendenhall and counting upon the journeyman Redman instead.

Playoff experience would figure to be a plus for the Steelers and Roethlisberger, who has won nine postseason gams (inclduing two Super Bowls in his career). Tebow has experience on the big stage, too, but that was in college; he’s about to participate in his first pro playoff game on Sunday.

Before dismissing Denver, however, please note that the rare home underdogs in this playoff round have covered 12 of 16 opportunities since the extra wildcard round was introduced in 1978. Overall, underdogs are a 56 percent play in the wild-card round since 1978, and covered all four chances a year ago.