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**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 05:53 PM

Houston Texans Host Bengals To Kick Off Playoffs

It is going to be a game full of firsts on Saturday afternoon at Reliant Stadium, where the Houston Texans will look to beat the NFL betting odds against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This is the first playoff game of the year, and it will be seen nationally on NBC at 4:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

This is the first time that the Texans (10-6 SU, 9-5-2) are going to be in the postseason and the first time that they have played a home game in the playoffs. Houston is also coming off of its first AFC South title in franchise history. Though all 31 other teams have made at least one appearance on NBC, this is the very first time that the Texans will ever be on the network.

Houston's TJ Yates will also be making his first postseason appearance. Yates was the third-string quarterback for Houston at the start of the year, and he didn’t suit up for the first time until Week 12 after Matt Schaub was placed on IR. He was thrown into the action right away against the Jacksonville Jaguars when backup QB Matt Leinart was injured, and he has started ever since.

Yates’ best game was against these Bengals. He threw for 300 yards and two TDs against just one INT that day, and his best moment was in the dying seconds of the game. Yates led an 83-yard drive down the field in just over two minutes, capped by a touchdown pass to Kevin Walter with just 0:02 remaining at Paul Brown Stadium in the game that ultimately clinched Houston’s first playoff bid.

Of course, Yates hopes not to have to throw for 300 yards again this time around. This Houston team is one that prefers to do its damage on the ground. The team averaged 153.0 YPG rushing this year, No. 2 in the league, with Arian Foster and Ben Tate combining for over 2,100 rushing yards and a total of 16 TDs.

Foster only played in 13 games this year, but he had 1,224 rushing yards and was second on the team in reception (53) and receiving yards (617).

This game will also be a first playoff action for Cincinnati rookie Andy Dalton. They said that a redhead quarterback couldn’t get the job done in the NFL, but the former TCU Horned Frog has proven them all wrong.

Dalton threw for 3,398 yards and 20 TDs against 13 INTs this year, and led the Bengals (9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) to a winning record in a season in which many thought that they would be the worst team in the league.

The worst news of all for Cincinnati is that it didn’t beat a playoff team this year. The Bengals' only win against a team that finished above .500 was a win in the first week of November against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field. All seven losses this year came against postseason teams, and the Bengals only went 1-5-1 ATS in those duels.

Houston has owned this series of late, winning three straight SU and four straight ATS. The 20-19 win at Paul Brown Stadium marked the second time in three years that the Texans have gone on the road and won a game in the Queen City.

Cincinnati is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine road games, but in the only trip to Reliant Stadium since Houston’s expansion season, the Bengals were crushed 35-6 in 2008.

The Texans, despite of a three-game skid to end the regular season, are 3-point favorites in their first postseason tilt. The total opened on Sunday night at 39, and has quickly dropped to 38.

The roof should be open at Reliant Stadium on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to top out around 70, and the game should be contested under mostly sunny skies.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 05:55 PM

Detroit Lions In Big Easy To Face New Orleans Saints

Detroit’s Calvin Johnson topped all NFL receivers with 1,681 yards.
The Detroit Lions have to be kicking themselves as they visit the New Orleans Saints in a wild-card weekend matchup Saturday night at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The opening NFL odds are out and Detroit is a 10½-point underdog with a big total of 58½-59. NBC will broadcast the second half of its doubleheader at 8:00 p.m. (ET) after Cincinnati (+3) at Houston.

The Lions (10-6 straight up, 7-7-2 against the spread) could have clinched the No. 5 seed in the NFC with a win at Green Bay yesterday, but lost 45-41 despite the Pack having nothing to play for and sitting several starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Backup Matt Flynn incredibly still threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, both team records.

The loss snapped a 3-game winning streak for coach Jim Schwartz’ Lions. They were 6½-point closing favorites and are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after starting 4-0-1 ATS.

Detroit would have faced the Giants with a win, a tough assignment in the cold weather, but not as tough as this one. New Orleans’ home games have been its own mini Mardi Gras, going a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, including a 45-17 win over Carolina on Sunday. The average score is 41-18.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has his work cut out for him, but he’s answered challenges all year. The 23-year-old became one of three signal callers to break the 5,000 yard mark (5,038) and did it with the 29th ranked rushing attack (96.7 YPG). Kevin Smith is the featured back with Jahvid Best out for the year, but Smith doesn’t scare opposing defenses.

The defense has to answer for that embarrassing performance against Green Bay. Defensive tackle Corey Williams (hip) and safety Louis Delmas (ankle) were both out, but that is no excuse. They are each listed as questionable this week.

Detroit is 5-3 SU and 3-3-2 ATS away. The offense can score both home (30.4 PPG) and away (28.9 PPG). However, the defense allows a touchdown more on opposing turf (27.9 PPG) versus Ford Field (20.5 PPG).

The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Detroit’s road games this year.

New Orleans (13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS) did its part to wrestle the No. 2 seed from San Francisco, but the 49ers held on by beating St. Louis (34-27). The Saints will travel to the Bay Area if they win on Saturday night in a great potential matchup.

Coach Sean Payton’s guys first need to take care of business against Detroit. Quarterback Drew Brees had already broken Dan Marino’s single-season yardage mark in Week 16, but added 389 more against Carolina on SUnday to finish at a whopping 5,476. He also threw for 46 TDs with his previous high just 34.

Brees is so dangerous because of his accuracy (71.2 percent) and that his favorite receiver is the ‘open one.’ Tight end Jimmy Graham (1,310 yards) is arguably the most dangerous weapon, but seven guys have at least 425 receiving yards, including two running backs.

The Saints running game (132.9 YPG, ranked sixth) did get some bad news yesterday with Mark Ingram (toe) out for the playoffs. However, the rookie won’t be missed too much with the stable of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles more than keeping opposing defenses honest.

The rest of the injury report has receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) both questionable. Vilma appears to be the healthier of the two and should play.

Coordinator Gregg Williams saw his defenders finish 24th in the NFL in total yards allowed (368.4 YPG), but 13th in points (21.2 PPG). They do an even better job limiting points at home (17.9 PPG) where they seem to play much faster.

Detroit and New Orleans already played once in the Bayou on Dec. 4, with the Saints winning 31-17 as 9-point favorites. Stafford threw for 408 yards and the Lions won time-of-possession 35-25 minutes. However, 11 penalties for 107 yards killed their chances.

The Saints won the Super Bowl two years ago, shocking Indianapolis 31-17. Last year, they were upset 41-36 as 9½-point favorites during wild-card weekend at Seattle.

The ‘over’ is 6-1-1 in New Orleans’ last eight playoff games, 4-0 at home.

The Lions haven’t made the postseason since 1999 and must withstand the wave of energy that will come from the New Orleans’ fans and players in the first quarter.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 05:59 PM

Wild Card Openers

January 2, 2012

Saturday, Jan. 7
Cincinnati at Houston (NBC, 4:30 p.m.)

Line: Texans -3 (39)

Movement: Couple offshore outfits dropped the number to 2 ½ while the Las Vegas shops have the number at 3 (Even). The total is hovering around 38 ½ at some sports books.

Notes: Houston has never made it to the playoffs, while the Bengals return for the first time since 2009. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game since 1990. The Texans beat the Bengals 20-19 in Week 14 on the road. Houston closed the season with three straight losses. On the road, Cincinnati went 5-3 straight up and 5-2-1 against the spread this season.

Detroit at New Orleans (NBC, 8:00 p.m.)

Line: Saints -10.5 (58)

Movement: The Greek opened New Orleans as a 10-point favorite before the hook was added. The total has held steady at 58 ½ points, with a few places going to 59.

Notes: Detroit hasn’t been to the postseason since 1999 and it hasn’t won a postseason game since 1991 when the likes of Barry Sanders and Herman Moore suited up for the team. New Orleans was bounced in the first round of the playoffs last year (Seattle, 41-36) but that was on the road. At home in the playoffs with Drew Brees, New Orleans is 3-0, but two of the wins came by exactly three points. The Lions closed the season with a 1-3 SU 0-4 ATS mark in their last four road games. The Saints beat the Lions 31-17 in Week 13 on MNF from the Big Easy. Brees has been golden to bettors lately, cashing tickets in the final eight games of the season.

Sunday, Jan. 8

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Line: Giants -3 (49)

Movement: Most books hung the extra juice (-20, -25) on New York, which tells you they wanted to open 3 ½. The number has dropped to 3, while the total is hovering between 48 1/2 and 49.

Notes: The Falcons are the only team in the Wild Card round to own the better record (10-6) than their opponent, but still listed as ‘dogs. Atlanta’s Mike Smith has coached in two playoffs games and lost both of them. The Giants haven’t been to the postseason since 2008, when it lost in the first round to Philadelphia (23-11) at home. The pair met in 2009, with the Giants capturing a 34-31 victory in overtime at home. The Giants were 2-4-1 ATS this season as home favorites.

Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:30 p.m.)

Line: Steelers -7.5 (35)

Movement: The line has held steady in Las Vegas but 5Dimes and Pinnacle have both made Pittsburgh a nine-point favorite, with plus-money given back. The total has dropped a half at a few outfits. As of Monday afternoon, the Steelers are 8 everywhere and still 9 (EVEN) at the major offshores.

Notes: The Steelers are 6-2 under head coach Mike Tomlin in the playoffs. Total players should note that all eight of these games have gone ‘over’ the number. Since John Elway retired, Denver is 1-4 in the playoffs with the last appearance coming in 2005. The Broncos were 1-3 both SU and ATS as home ‘dogs this season, while the Steelers were 5-0 SU as road favorites yet only 2-3 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 06:01 PM

Wild Card Concepts

January 2, 2012

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs can be a bit tricky.
The knee-jerk reaction is to back home teams. After all, they have been a solid-moneymaker, going 161-131-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved faster than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 108-98-5 ATS (52.4%) since 1990 and, even worse, 55-57-1 ATS (48.1%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key is breaking the playoffs down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive (read: value-laden) than ever before.

Let’s break down opening round games involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in opening round playoff games with these three time-tested theories. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 20-10-1 ATS - including 0-2 ATS last year. (Detroit, Denver)

Better yet, dress them up as 'dogs and they improve to 14-5 ATS. (Detroit, Denver)

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-36-1 ATS – including 3-1 ATS last year. (Cincinnati, Detroit)

Bring these highwaymen in off a double-digit division loss and they drop to 2-11 ATS.

ATS Diabetes

NFL Wild Card teams off a season ending blowout win in which they beat the spread by 10 or points suffer from more than a sugar rush, going just 21-33-1 during this round – including 2-0 ATS last year. (Atlanta, New York Giants)

These same unappealing teams are even less palatable when playing off a straight up underdog win, going 4-16-1 ATS.

Notice that all three of these Wild Card angles defied each theory in a major way last season. Will they revert back to form or continue their stubborn ways in 2011? Stay tuned.

There you have it. I’ll be back next week with a peek at the Divisional Round playoff matchups.

Good luck as always.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 06:12 PM

Books gear up for Playoffs

January 2, 2012

After all the excitement generated last week with the wild scenarios to make the playoffs, two of the teams backed in with losses thanks to everything unfolding their way. The Broncos lost their third game in a row Sunday, but got helped by the Raiders losing to the Chargers and claimed the AFC West. The Bengals lost once again to a team with a winning record, but were helped by the Jets losing to Miami and Oakland losing.
The Tim Tebow-mania train has seemed to have lost a lot of momentum much to the delight of all his skeptics. A combination of defenses figuring out better ways to defend him and the Tebow magic not occurring at key moments have led to the Broncos recent demise.

However, it’s a new season now. Everybody starts from scratch. Denver gets a Steelers team limping into the playoff themselves, not in the win-loss department like Denver, but in the health department. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on his sprained ankle was sluggish in the Steelers 13-9 win at Cleveland Sunday. The Steelers also got bad news as starting running back Rashard Mendenhall may have torn his ACL and is listed as ‘out’ for Sunday‘s game.

The Las Vegas Hilton was the first to post the number in town with the Steelers opening as 7 ½-point favorites. By Monday morning the game had moved to -8 with the total standing still at a low number of 35.

This will be by far Tebow’s biggest test of the season facing the league’s No. 1 defense. The Broncos biggest win of the season came against a pretty good Jets defense, but the Steelers are an entirely different story. The player that may have the most impact on who wins the game is Broncos safety Brian Dawkins who has missed the last three games. His tackling and intelligence has been sorely missed on the Broncos defensive side that has led to the three straight losses.

It’s hard to tell who backed into the playoffs more convincingly in the Bengals-Texans matchup. It was Week 14 when the two teams met in Cincinnati where Texans third-string QB T.J. Yates led the team on last minute drive to win 20-19. At that point, most of us thought the Texans QB situation would be okay with the rookie, but since then the Texans haven’t won a game.

The Bengals get credit for beating the teams they’re supposed to, but when matched up against a team with a winning record, they don’t do so well. They’ve gone 3-5 over their last eight games with their only wins coming against Cleveland, St. Louis and Arizona. The Arizona win can be considered a quality win because of how well the Cardinals have played in the second half of the season, but even with that win, there’s no denying that the Bengals are not the same team they were when they reeled off five straight wins early in the season.

The Hilton opened the Texans a short price of -3 (EVEN) while others opened them -3 flat. This will be the Texans first playoff game in team history and they have the luxury of being able to rely on the league’s best running back in Arian Foster and the No. 2 ranked defense. If they can somehow limit Yates contributions to just handing the ball off to Foster and not getting himself into trouble, the Texans should be okay here. The ‘under’ 38 total points might be a good play here as well.

The Saints completed their season sweep at home going 8-0 both straight up and against the spread. We saw the Lions travel to New Orleans in Week 13 on Monday Night Football where the Saints were nine-point favorites and win convincingly 31-17 thanks to a 21-0 outburst in the second quarter. This time around the Saints are laying -10 ½ with a total of 59 points.

The Lions came into Green Bay last week on a three-game winning streak (their last loss was at New Orleans) and were 3 ½-point favorites because QB Aaron Rodgers, LB Clay Mathews and DB Charles Woodson all sat out the game. However, Matt Flynn shredded the Lions secondary passing for over 400 yards in a 45-41 win, which makes you wonder what Drew Brees will do to them this week.

The Giants opened a strong 3-point favorite for their home game against the Falcons. The Falcons have been a hard team to figure out this season. Most of us consider them a good team, but there’s something missing from their make-up that would make them a great team.

Meanwhile, the Giants have almost the same look of the team that went from the Wild Card to Super Bowl champs in 2008. After losing four in a row with their playoff chances slim, the Giants have now won three of their last four and have gotten great play from QB Eli Manning and the defense. Wide receiver Victor Cruz has become a superstar, making one big play after another. The combination of Cruz and Hakeem Nicks gives the Giants one of the best receiving duos in the league.

The home teams look to be the right side this week with leans to the ‘under’ in all of them. The Broncos-Steelers game has the making of being a 16-13 game coming down to the wire with Tebow given an opportunity to steal the game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2012, 06:15 PM

Public starts 2012 on a roll

January 2, 2012

New Year, Same Story for Sports Books
The sports books were happy to see 2011 go away, but the first Sunday in 2012 turned out to be much of the same, another break even or losing day. Favorites went only 8-8 ATS on the day with five underdogs winning outright, but the entire day hinged on the Giants-Cowboys game where the public happily laid -3 and got paid with the Giants 31-14 win.

“Everyone jumped on the Giants,“ said MGM resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood. “I couldn’t get any Cowboys money and with it being the last game of the day, all the parlay risk from the early games made it a pretty substantial decision for us.”

The public also did well with the Ravens winning and covering at Cincinnati and the Patriots smoking the Bills. Buffalo jumped out to a 21-0 lead on the Patriots and if you had a ticket on the Patriots, it may have found its way to the garbage early. This was an important game for the Patriots to secure home field and no one expected Buffalo to win as evident by hardly anyone betting them.

“It was a pretty one-sided bet game, all Patriots money,” said Rood.

And then the comeback came! One touchdown after another by the Patriots, as gamblers watched them reel off 49 unanswered points en route to the 49-21 victory. It was a pretty impressive performance by the team favored to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

“That’s pretty much how the season has gone for us,” said Rood. “We’ve had maybe half-a-dozen winning weeks this season.“

The final tally on the year has favorites going 122-126-6 with the bettors getting the best of the sports books in about 10 of the 17 weeks, almost the complete opposite of 2010 when the sports books rolled strong.

Everything cycles around so that should mean the books are in store for a great playoffs and a winning Super Bowl. The Packers hurt just about every sports book in town last year all the way through the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Lost Ticket

For all my years behind the counter I never could understand how so many people lost their tickets. Most of the time, it was the same people who routinely lost winning tickets. I would tell them to treat the ticket like cash and handle with care. If someone finds the ticket and cashes it, it’s gone and nothing can be done.

For the first time, I found myself in need of help and understanding from the book as I stupidly lost a ticket. I felt so embarrassed and ashamed to have to fill out a lost ticket claim, but was treated with much more respect than expected.

Kitt Langvad, manager of the Arizona Charlies West book and her supervisor Terry, found my lost winning Breeder’s Cup ticket, locked it out and never once treated me like I was a dummy. So I just wanted to thank them for the way they handled the situation.

I also wanted to let bettors who may not know that if you lose a ticket, there still is a chance you can get paid. If you find yourself in the situation, go to the supervisor and request to fill out a lost ticket claim form. Put all the details of the bet, amount, date, time and what window you remember betting from. If you have another ticket bet from the same sequence (winner or loser), you can include that as well because it helps find the ticket faster.

As long as it hasn’t been cashed by the lucky finder, the ticket can be locked out and after a wait of 60 to 90 days you can collect. Should the finder of the ticket come in and attempt to cash while the ticket is locked and say the ticket is his, then Gaming will get involved and hear both stories. If the finder admits to having found the ticket, he loses immediately. If the finder says he bet the ticket himself, than surveillance will tell the truth. In most cases, the finder of the lost ticket never wins.

Treasures at Treasure Island

The NTRA National Handicapping Championship will be held at Treasure Island on Jan. 27- 28 with $1 Million in cash given away for those who pick the ponies the best. If you’d like to get in on some the cash, you still have a last chance to get in by competing in their Jan. 25 tournament with an entry fee of $500. Contestants can enter a maximum of four times with the tournament being limited to 150 total entries.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2012, 11:56 PM

New York Giants Host Atlanta Falcons NFL Playoffs

Two NFC teams that took very different paths to the playoffs will meet on Sunday when the New York Giants host the Atlanta Falcons in a Wild Card matchup.

The fourth-seeded Giants (9-7) needed to beat Dallas 31-14 on Sunday Night Football to win the NFC East, while the Falcons (10-6) avoided a third meeting with New Orleans by routing Tampa Bay 45-24 last week to claim the fifth seed after finishing second to the Saints in the NFC South.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. New York opened as a 3-point favorite and has remained there with the total falling from 48½ to a low of 47.

Some of that early action on the total might have something to do with the weather forecast that calls for a high temperature of 43 and a 40 percent chance of showers in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the home of MetLife Stadium.

The Giants were one of the hardest teams to figure out during the regular season, winning six of their first eight games only to lose five of six before finishing up with consecutive victories. Led by quarterback Eli Manning, who threw for nearly 5,000 yards (4,933) and 29 touchdowns, New York seemed to be at its best offensively when running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were both healthy.

Wide receiver Victor Cruz also emerged this season in just his second year, setting a franchise record for receiving yards with 1,536 and scoring nine touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Atlanta was the top seed in the NFC a year ago but lost at home to Green Bay and hopes to atone for that disappointing ending this postseason. The Falcons rebounded from a 2-3 start in 2011 that saw them fail to cover the spread four times in five games, going 8-4 the rest of the way. Their 23-16 win at Detroit in Week 7 kept them from visiting New Orleans. The team had a balanced offense during the regular season behind QB Matt Ryan (4,177 passing yards and 29 touchdowns) and RB Michael Turner (1,340 rushing yards and 11 TDs) and owned the NFL’s sixth-ranked run defense, allowing 97 yards per game.

Atlanta has dropped the last three meetings with the Giants, the latest coming in a 34-31 overtime loss on the road back in 2009. New York won the previous two meetings away from home and covered the spread in both.

The Giants are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games overall with the total going ‘under’ in the last three, all between 45 and 48 points. The Falcons are 3-1 straight up and ATS in their past four overall with the ‘over’ cashing each time.

Atlanta could be without starting linebacker Stephen Nicholas who is listed as doubtful on the Don Best injury report due to a bum knee suffered in the Dec. 15 game against the Jaguars. New York's two biggest injury concerns, halfback Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) and defensive end Justin Tuck (shoulder) are both listed as probable.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2012, 12:00 AM

Steelers Favored In Battle With Denver Broncos

Even the most diehard of Denver fans can be excused for wondering how their favorite team ever managed to qualify for the playoffs. But the Broncos are indeed into the postseason for the first time in six years as the AFC West champions, one of the most unlikely developments we can recall in recent pro football annals.

How long Denver lasts in the playoffs is another question. The fun might not last beyond Sunday, when the Broncos (8-8 straight up, 7-9 against the spread) host Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. A quick check of the Don Best odds screen notes that money at Las Vegas wagering outlets has generally been flowing in the Steelers’ direction since Sunday night, with Mike Tomlin’s team listed as an 8½-point favorite at most sports books at midweek. The total is mostly sitting at a rather-low 34 points.

TV coverage will be provided by CBS, with the network’s top broadcast team of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on hand to describe the action.

Although Denver is in the postseason, we are hard-pressed to recall a postseason entrant looking any worse in recent memory. The Broncos absolutely backed into the playoffs on the heels of a season-ending 3-game losing streak, saved in the end by Oakland’s loss to San Diego on the final weekend which awarded the AFC West to Denver almost by default. Tiebreaking procedures (which had to progress to the "results in common games" stage) broke the 3-way deadlock between the Raiders, Chargers and Denver in the Broncos’ favor.

During their earlier and very improbable 6-game win streak that roughly coincided with Tim Tebow’s entrance into the lineup as the starting QB, the Broncos were able to parlay a low-risk offense and Tebow’s playmaking ability to pull out several unlikely wins in the late going. Tebow has three overtime wins to his credit, and head coach John Fox deserves loads of credit for changing the Bronco offensive formula to fit Tebow, introducing the read-option and a ground-based assault that caught several foes unsuspecting in the win streak.

Opposing stop units, however, seem to have caught on to the Denver recipe, and have been playing much better assignment defense in recent weeks. The read-option is not a major element of the Bronco offensive package these days that mostly relies upon between-the-tackles pounding by RB Willis McGahee instead.

The Broncos were also playing rather mistake-free football in their uptick, but that hasn’t been the case in the current three-game losing streak in which Denver has been guilty of nine giveaways. That’s hard enough for a team such as Green Bay or New Orleans to overcome; for the Broncos, it’s almost impossible.

Moreover, Denver was banged up down the stretch, especially in the secondary, where vet Brian Dawkins has been battling a pinched nerve in his neck in recent weeks, sometimes requiring Fox to start a pair of rookies (Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter) at the safety spots. Offensively, Fox has injury concerns, too, especially regarding FB Spencer Larsen and OG Chris Kuper, both hurt last week vs. the Chiefs. Their absence would not help the Broncos’ ground-based formula this week.

Assuming Denver is fortunate to be here, we must also wonder if Pittsburgh is in any condition to take advantage. The Steelers have been hurting in recent weeks, too, especially QB Ben Roethlisberger, alternately held out and severely limited in recent weeks after a left ankle sprain suffered vs. the Browns on December 8. Big Ben’s passing accuracy has left something to be desired in his compromised state.

Further, top RB Rashard Mendenhall went down with a season-ending knee injury last week at Cleveland, though Isaac Redman was serviceable in relief vs. the Browns when gaining 92 yards on the ground. The Steelers will also be without safety Ryan Clark, who will sit out this game due to past serious health complications resulting from games at the higher Denver altitude.

Still, it is tough to envision Tebow, who completed just six of his 22 passes last week vs. the Chiefs, burning Dick LeBeau’s zone-blitzing defense, which ranked tops in the NFL. Steelers OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley figure to keep tabs on Tebow and his improvising, while S Troy Polamalu could wreak havoc for Denver’s run-centric offense as he hangs around the line of scrimmage.

The keys to this battle are likely when Pittsburgh has the ball. Big Ben, who can at least avoid traffic when playing on two good wheels, can’t be expected to even do that much in his current condition, which could pose problems vs. an active Bronco pass rush that’s adept at collapsing the pocket from the edge with Elvis Dumervil and rookie LB sensation Von Miller, who have combined for 21 sacks.

Thus, don’t be surprised for the Steelers to spread the field and rely mostly on short, quick drops by Roethlisberger out of the shotgun to help avoid the Denver pass rush. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will want Roethlisberger to probe Denver’s nickel and dime backs as much as possible and not risk too much against veteran big-play corners Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman. The Broncos will like their chances if they can win the turnover battle, which was their m.o. through most of their six-game win streak.

Denver can be run against, too, but it remains to be seen how effective the Steelers can be without Mendenhall and counting upon the journeyman Redman instead.

Playoff experience would figure to be a plus for the Steelers and Roethlisberger, who has won nine postseason gams (inclduing two Super Bowls in his career). Tebow has experience on the big stage, too, but that was in college; he’s about to participate in his first pro playoff game on Sunday.

Before dismissing Denver, however, please note that the rare home underdogs in this playoff round have covered 12 of 16 opportunities since the extra wildcard round was introduced in 1978. Overall, underdogs are a 56 percent play in the wild-card round since 1978, and covered all four chances a year ago.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2012, 12:12 AM

Playoff Tested?

January 4, 2012

The Proof Is In The Pudding

One of the most important elements in handicapping sports is comparing apples to apples.

This is especially true when in comes to the postseason when teams enter into either playoff or tournament competition.

In football games one key component is weighing each team’s performance against other like opposition.

In the college bowl games we compare bowler versus bowler results to gain a better handle on how teams fared throughout the regular season. In the NFL we put playoff teams on the scale in games they played against other playoff teams throughout the season.

Often times the results are eye opening, especially when stacked against one another.

For your perusal, here are the findings of NFL playoff teams in games played versus other playoff teams this 2011 season, which includes 'over/under' results as well.

AFC
Team Straight Up Against the Spread Over-Under

Baltimore 6-0 5-0-1 4-2

Cincinnati 0-7 1-5-1 5-2

Denver 1-3 0-4 4-0

Houston 3-2 3-2 3-2

New England 1-2 1-2 1-2

Pittsburgh 3-4 3-4 3-4

NFC
Team Straight Up Against the Spread Over-Under

Atlanta 1-4 1-4 1-4

Detroit 1-5 1-5 2-4

Green Bay 6-0 5-1 4-2

New Orleans 5-1 5-1 4-2

New York Giants 1-3 2-2 3-1

San Francisco 4-1 4-1 1-4

Betcha Didn’t Know

The Bengals were 9-0 SU versus non-playoff teams and 0-7 SU versus playoff foes.

The Saints were 4-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome.

The Packers were 3-0 SU and ATS at Lambeau, scoring 42 or more points in each game.

The Texans were 2-0 SU and ATS at home, playing ‘Under’ in both games.

The Steelers were 1-3 SU and ATS away.

Forewarned is forearmed. Good luck as always.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2012, 12:17 AM

Total Talk - Wild Card

January 4, 2012

Season Recap

Coincidentally, the season began with some shootouts and it ended with some too. Five teams busted the 40-point barrier in Week 17 and another four put up 30-plus as well. In the end, the ‘over’ went 9-7. On the season, the ‘under’ still produced a 129-120-5 (52%) mark. What’s a little surprising with the overall number is that the ‘over’ went 19-13-1 (59%) in the primetime games played on Sunday and Monday.

First Round Trends

The ‘under’ has produced a 17-11 (61%) in the first round of the playoffs the last seven seasons, which includes a 3-1 mark last year. Obviously anything can happen, evidenced by a 4-0 ‘over’ run in 2009 but the angles normally lead to low-scoring affairs.

First Round Total History (2004-2010)
2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)

St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37

N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37

Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5

Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5

2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)

Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39

Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41

New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5

Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39

2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)

Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34

San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5

Baltimore 27 Baltimore 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5

Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48

2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (TBD)

Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati at Houston

N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 New Orleans at Detroit

Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta at N.Y. Giants

Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5 Pittsburgh at Denver

Overtime Rules

We mentioned these last year and while it may or may not matter, it’s good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- this postseason, each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.

Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!

Saturday, Jan. 7

Cincinnati at Houston: The Texans beat the Bengals 20-19 in Week 14 on the road and the combined 39 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing total of 37 ½ points. The game had nine scores, but only three were touchdowns. The final score was the dagger for ‘under’ bettors, which came with two seconds left. QB T.J. Yates, who was making his first start, tied the game at 19-19 with a six-yard touchdown pass before Neil Rackers sealed the win with a PAT. The total for the second encounter opened at 39 but is sitting at 38 ½ points. You could make a case that the total is too high, considering the Texans (17.4 PPG) and Bengals (20.2) both have legit defensive units. Houston has seen the ‘under’ go 10-5-1 this season, including a 6-1-1 mark at Reliant Stadium. Conversely, Cincinnati has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road.

Detroit at New Orleans: This matchup will also feature two teams meeting for the second time this season, as the Saints beat the Lions 31-17 in Week 13 on SNF. The game went ‘under’ the number (55.5) but could’ve easily gone the other way. New Orleans led 24-7 at the break but only put up seven in the final 30 minutes. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ when you look at the numbers. New Orleans has put up 41.1 points per game at home this season and Detroit’s attack (28.9 PPG) has been outside of the Motor City. The total is super-high (59), yet understood. The Lions have had three games with totals listed at 50 or higher and all three went ‘under.’ Meanwhile, New Orleans owns a 6-2 ‘over’ record with totals in the fifties.

Sunday, Jan. 8

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants: Tough total to handicap here, especially when the weather could be unpredictable by kickoff. The Falcons closed the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets, with the offense putting up an average of 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Giants closed with three consecutive ‘under’ winners behind a defense that gave up 51 combined points. So what will give here? Atlanta has been in two playoff games under head coach Mike Smith and both went ‘over’ as the team gave up 48 and 30 points albeit to Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Kurt Warner (Arizona). Is Eli in that class? If you judge a quarterback by his playoff performances, then make a note that the younger Manning is 4-3 in the postseason. Ironically, all four wins came during the incredible 2007 Super Bowl run and Eli has never led the Giants’ offense to more than 24 points in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh at Denver: The last game of the Wild Card round also has the lowest total and it keeps dropping. The opener was as high as 35 ½ at a couple offshore outfits and its hovering around 34. Despite having a one-dimensional attack, the Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 on the season, including 5-3 at home. Also, Denver has played four playoff teams this season and its defense has given up 22, 49, 45 and 41 points. Pittsburgh enters this game banged up, but the defense is playing lights out. The unit has given up an average of 7.5 PPG in the final six games, and to no surprise the ‘under’ has cashed in all of these games too. We understand that the Steelers haven’t faced any juggernauts during this stretch, and it’s hard to see Denver explode here. If you want to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot, then perhaps turn your attention to Pittsburgh’s head coach. Mike Tomlin has been on the sidelines for seven playoff games for the Black and Gold and all seven have gone ‘over’ the number. Will the trend continue at Mile High?

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2012, 12:03 AM

NFL wild card weekend biggest betting mismatches

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3, 38.5)

Texans’ pass defense vs. Andy Dalton

Shutdown corner Johnathan Joseph sat out last week’s meaningless game vs. Tennessee so he’ll be ready to shadow A.J. Green

Houston owns the NFL’s fifth-best pass coverage unit and fourth-best pass rush, according to Pro Football Focus. Coordinator Wade Phillips, who missed Houston’s losses to Carolina and Indy while recovering from surgery, will call the game from the press box.

Reliant Stadium will be rocking for the first playoff game in franchise history.

None of that bodes well for Dalton.

After a sizzling start, the rookie faltered over the last seven games, completing 54.8 percent of his throws with eight touchdowns and eight turnovers. His struggles will continue Saturday.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-10.5, 58.5)

Saints’ weapons vs. Wishful thinking

Detroit is making a big deal out of the return of safety Louis Delmas, who missed the past five games with a torn MCL in his right knee. There’s no question he’s the Lions’ defensive leader, but it’s not like he’s 100 percent.

“He’s trending in the right direction and hope we’ll be able to get him out there,” coach Jim Schwartz said. "He’s a guy that we drafted to be one of the cornerstones defensively. He’s right in the middle of our defense, does a good job of communication. He’s a very good player -- run and pass, covers a lot of ground. But more than that, (he) brings a lot of soul to our defense. I think that’s one of the things that we miss."

Lions backers also note that Ndamukong Suh missed the 31-17 loss in New Orleans in Week 13. But he was on the field last week when Detroit, playing to win, gave up 480 passing yards and six TDs to Matt Flynn.

You know all about Drew Brees’ record season and his array of targets including Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson and Darren Sproles. You may not know New Orleans ranks sixth in rushing (129.9 yards per game) and fourth in yards per carry (4.9).

Detroit ranks 23rd in run defense (128.1) and gives up 5.0 yards per carry, tied for 29th.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3, 47)

Giants’ pass rush vs. Uncomfortable Falcons

Atlanta is playing outdoors for just the second time since Week 4.

Matt Ryan is a much different passer on the road. In 30 career home games, Rotoworld’s Evan Silva notes, Ryan is 26-4 with a 64.8 percent completion rate and a 49-17 TD-INT ratio. He averages 7.6 yards per attempt in the Georgia Dome. In 32 road games, here are Matty Ice’s numbers: 17-15, 58.1 percent completion rate, 46-29 TD-INT ratio, and 6.7 yards per attempt.

The Falcons’ stabilized their line by replacing left tackle Sam Baker with Will Svitek, but they’ve played only one decent defense over their last seven games.

Now they face a unit that has 11 sacks and a forced fumble the last two weeks. Jason Pierre-Paul is on fire with 37 tackles and six sacks in his last five games. Justin Tuck is regaining his Pro Bowl form. Osi Umenyiora returned last week from knee and ankle injuries and got two sacks.

Tuck can play tackle, enabling New York to get several pass rushers on the field at once. Against Dallas, the Giants harassed Tony Romo without blitzing.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (9, 34)

Miller, Dumervil vs. Immobile Big Ben

Ben Roethlisberger aggravated his high ankle sprain against the Browns, and the Steelers failed to cover.

He was hobbling around on his left ankle late in the week.

"I felt really good going in the Cleveland game," Roethlisberger said. "I had a little setback early in the third quarter, so we're working really hard right now with the trainers and doctors to get back to even where we were before the Cleveland game.

"Because I felt pretty good going in, I moved [around] a little bit at the beginning of that game, but (there was) a little setback. ... We got set back by about a week."

In two games since returning from the injury, Big Ben has completed 48 of 84 passes (57 percent) for 551 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s not the same when he can’t move around, plant hard and fire.

Linebacker Von Miller has 11.5 sacks, DE Elvis Dumervil has 9.5 and OLB D.J. Williams has five. The Broncos are tied for 10th with 41 sacks.

"I'm not looking at it like he's hurt. I'm looking at it like he's out here and as long as you're out there, I'm going to come at you," Dumervil said.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2012, 12:07 AM

NFL Total Bias: wild card weekend's best over/under bets

Act like you’ve been there before.

It’s a phrase that is so common in sports that it’s often pushed aside as just another tired cliché. Coaches spend hours shaping their teams to be responsible, committed and focused.

Players have heard it enough that as soon as it comes up, the headphones go on and the iPhones come out.

Most of the time it’s used to promote professionalism. Get into the end zone, give the ball back to the official and move on. Act like you’ve been there before.

But when you consider it in a literal sense, a lot of guys are shaking their heads right now. Playoffs? They know absolutely nothing about playoff football, which any veteran worth his player’s pension will tell you is a completely different animal.

That makes this weekend hell of a lot harder to handicap. There are certain things we hold dear as football bettors, certain situations we feel comfortable evaluating because we’ve seen them so many times before.

Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle is a mess and he missed practice this week, but nobody’s sounding the fire alarm. He’s Big Ben. He always shows up and moves the chains.

But what about the other guys?

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for a billion yards this year and probably has the most dominant wide receiver the league has seen in years, but how are they going to handle a Saturday night game in New Orleans?

It might as well be Mardi Gras. Who Dat Nation will be running wild with voodoo spells, beads and boobs flying all over the place. Detroit may be playing in a dome, but this will be a road game like no other for these young Lions.

How about the rookie quarterback battle between Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton and Houston’s T.J. Yates? You might as well be shaking the Magic 8 ball for answers and to make matters worse, Dalton has been praying to the porcelain gods all week while Yates is working with an iffy shoulder.

And then, of course, there’s Tim Tebow. Against all odds, he led the Broncos to the playoffs, but his big reward is a date with Pittsburgh’s defense.

With this many question marks and so much inexperience on the field, anybody who tells you they have a lock this weekend needs to be locked up.

I know we’re all excited about playoff football, but NFL bettors need to act like we’ve been here before too.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3, 39)

While you gotta love Dalton’s moxie, he hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was earlier this year. He completed just 54.8 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in his last seven games. Houston’s pass defense ranks third in the league, so the Red Rifle has his work cut out for him.

And, in the first meeting between these teams, Yates couldn’t get anything done when the Bengals laid back in coverage and forced the young quarterback to beat them. As long as Cincinnati doesn’t get sucked into too many play-action plays, Yates will have a tough time making big strikes as well.

Pick: Under

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-10.5, 59)

As Larry Hartstein discussed earlier this week, this might be the biggest playoff total the books ever sent out. There aren’t many people looking at the under either.

Even though you know this number is juiced with public opinion, it’s hard to make a case for the under. The Saints are averaging 44 points per game while Detroit has averaged about 35 points per contests over its last four.

Once you factor in the fast track at the Superdome, I think this total is only going to rise before Saturday night.

Pick: Over

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3, 47)

Eli Manning deserves a ton of credit. He’s picking his spots for big plays, fitting the ball into tight holes and basically willed this team into the postseason with last week’s sparkling 346-yard, three-TD effort against Dallas.

When it comes to playoff football, Eli obviously knows what he’s doing.

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan is trying to take his game to the next level and he looks to have all the momentum he needs to do just that. Ryan has chucked 10 touchdowns in his last four games with no interceptions and ended up with more than 4,000 passing yards.

Barring a terrible weather day in the Big Apple, this one tops the total too.

Pick: Over

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2012, 12:10 AM

NFL playoff action report: Pros and public backing Steelers

If the New Orleans Saints are playing, sportsbooks are rooting for the under and the underdog. Oddsmakers installed the NFC South champs as double-digit favorites against a 10-win team with a historically high total, and still the books will be pulling for the Detroit Lions and lower-scoring game.

“We’ve been burned on the Saints' totals all season,” Bob Scucci, director of race and sports at Coast Casinos, told ***********.

The Saints finished the season on an eight-game ATS winning streak, with the over paying in their last three contests.

“Even in games the under came through, statistically, it seemed like it should have gone the other way.” Scucci said. “They’d get 500 offensive yards but then run out the clock late, so even in those games we felt like the [total] might have been too low.”

Scucci opened the over/under line in the Saints/Lions game at 59.5 but didn’t hesitate to bump it to 60 for a little bit to try to get some under money. Coast Casinos and most other Vegas sportsbooks were using 59 Thursday morning, but that doesn’t mean the number won’t move up again if bettors keep biting on the over.

Here’s the scoop on the pointspread movement for all of this weekend’s NFL playoff games:

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-10 to -10.5)

The Lions lost some support from the public after losing outright as 3.5-point faves and allowing Packers, with backup QB Matt Flynn under center, to score 45 points.

Detroit lost by two touchdowns at New Orleans a few weeks back but the game was closer than the final score indicates.

“You look at time of possession, it was in the Lions’ favor,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, told ***********. “Detroit didn’t have Suh and they had some penalties. It could have been closer, really.”

Avello said he opened the line at Saints -10 and the sharp bettors laid the points. He moved it up to 10.5 and said he thinks that’s where he’ll probably stay until kickoff.

There have been some 11’s out there, but 10.5 seems to be the most commonly used number as of Thursday afternoon.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7.5 to -8.5)

This line went as high as Denver +9 but 8.5 seems to be the number of choice in most Vegas shops. Some offshore books that canter to public bettors are still offering Steelers -9.

“The sharps and the public are on the Steelers so far, from what I can tell,” Scucci said.

The professional players grabbed 7.5 when the line first opened and some bought back when the spread grew to 9.

Scucci and Avello both see Pittsburgh as a far superior team than Denver, but it’s difficult to inflate the spread much with the game expected to be such a low-scoring affair.

“Denver’s projected to score somewhere between 3-to-10 points,” Avello said.

The total opened at 35 but has been bet down to 34 or 34.5.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3 +100, -3 -125)

Bookmakers never like to move off a key number like a field goal spread, but we could see this line get to Texans -3.5 by Sunday. The spread opened with the plus juice for the home favorite but it’s a quarter price (-125) to back Houston.

Avello admitted he didn’t want to move off this number but conceded he couldn’t bump the juice up much higher either. Scucci said he sees this game closing at 3.5.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3)

Nothing really to report on this spread. New York as a 3-point home favorite is generating good two-way action and that’s why bettors haven’t seen any type of movement on the line. The total a dropped a point to half point at some shops and it seems like 47.5 to 48 seems like the most commonly used over/under line for this matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2012, 12:12 AM

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Wildcard Weekend

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3)

Why Bengals cover: The Texans are laying the customary three points for being at home, but oddsmakers are giving them no more of an edge than that. That’s because T.J. Yates – Houston’s third-string QB – is starting due to injuries suffered by Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart during the season. And even Yates is dinged up, recovering from a separated left (non-throwing) shoulder.

Cincy, meanwhile, is battle tested in the hotly contested AFC North. The Bengals lost five of their last eight games, but four of those were to Pittsburgh and Baltimore and the fifth was at home to these same Texans - a 20-19 setback on a last-second Houston touchdown. Marvin Lewis’ troops are a solid 6-1-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine on the road and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 catching three points or less. Cincy also has the NFL’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (20.2 ppg) and eighth-ranked yardage defense (316.3 ypg).

Why Texans cover: It never hurts to have Arian Foster (1,224 yards, 4.4 ypc, 10 TDs) toting the ball for you – or catching the ball (53 receptions, 617 yards). And he’s rested, sitting out last week after ripping off 158 yards two weeks ago against the Colts. Wideout Andre Johnson, hit-and-miss all season with hamstring issues, is also expected to play a lot Saturday.

Houston has a solid defense, at fourth in scoring (17.4 ppg) and second in yards allowed (285.7). Houston is also on several ATS upswings, including 6-2-2 overall, 7-3-1 as a home chalk and 4-0 in this occasional rivalry, winning the last three meetings straight up (SU).

Total (38.5): The bookmakers are expecting both teams’ defenses to keep things reasonable. The total has gone under in six of Texans’ last eight at Reliant Field and five of their last six as a home favorite. However, Cincy sports over streaks of 9-4 overall, 10-2 against AFC foes, 4-1 vs. winning teams and 4-1 after a SU loss. Last month’s Texans-Bengals contest seemed a sure under bet until Yates led the game-winning 80-yard TD drive, putting it narrowly over the 37.5-point number.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)

Why Lions cover: This is the playoffs, and that’s a huge number for Saints to lay. Lions QB Matthew Stafford showed last week – and several other times this year – that he’s plenty capable of lighting up the scoreboard, hurling five TD passes while racking up 520 yards, outdoors in lousy weather against the Packers (albeit in a losing cause). Now, he gets to go back indoors with an offense that ranks fourth in the NFL at 29.6 ppg.

Detroit is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 catching more than 10 points, while New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 giving more than 10 points. Saints also shoulder ATS slides of 2-7 in January games, 2-5 in postseason play and 1-5 on Saturdays.

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees & Co. are the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs, with an offense that has shattered all sorts of records this season. The Saints rate second in scoring at 34.2 ppg and No. 1 in yards gained at a hefty 467.1 ypg. Matching Detroit’s offensive prowess won’t be a problem. In fact, these two teams met just five weeks ago at the Superdome and New Orleans held up its end of the bargain while stifling Detroit in a 31-17 victory as a 9-point favorite.

Sean Payton’s squad has ripped off eight consecutive wins, cashing in all eight and winning by 11 points or more six times in that stretch. Their last three games have been laughers, with the Saints breaking 40 in all three and winning by a minimum of 22 points. New Orleans is also on an 11-1 ATS tear in its home dome. Detroit, meanwhile, has covered just one of its last six (1-4-1 ATS) and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six vs. winning teams.

Total (58.5): That is a big total, though it’s clear these two offenses are capable of surpassing it. Detroit on over streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 34-16-1 in roadies and 5-1-1 as a road pup, while New Orleans carries over runs of 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 4-0 in home postseason play and 4-0 with Saints a chalk of more than 10.

Last month’s Lions-Saints clash reached 48 points - a touchdown short of the posted number of 55.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3)

Why Falcons cover: This is a team that really played its way into the postseason, winning eight of its last 11 games after a 2-3 start. Atlanta went 3-1 SU and ATS in its final four games, with the three wins coming by eight points, 27 points and 21 points, respectively. The Giants, meanwhile, were 3-5 SU in their last eight and didn’t exactly look like a playoff-worthy team at times.

Atlanta has covered in its last five roadies against the Giants and the road team in this rivalry is on an 8-0 pointspread tear. New York is in ATS ruts of 1-4-1 laying points and 1-4-1 as a home favorite.

Why Giants cover: They got their act together after a four-game dive to win three of their last four SU and ATS, including Sunday night’s 31-14 home victory over Dallas to clinch the final NFC playoff spot. With the exception of an inexplicable loss at Washington, QB Eli Manning has had the offense clicking this past month, racking up 29 points or more four times. And when it gets to crunch time, Manning has produced. He’s got a league-leading 15 fourth-quarter touchdown throws this season.

The Giants have cashed four of their last five overall and five of their last six in the postseason. Falcons have failed to cover in their last four against winning teams, and they are in playoff ATS slides of 1-4 overall and 1-4 as an underdog. Atlanta also 1-5 ATS outdoors this season.

Total (47): Over has been the play in Atlanta’s last four games and is on further runs of 6-1-2 for Falcons in January and 8-3 for Giants against winning teams. However, New York on under surges of 6-1 in playoff games, 4-1 at home and 4-0 giving points. And in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Denver Broncos

Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 1 defense, allowing just 14.2 ppg and 271.8 ypg, and the Broncos can’t score, even against inferior opponents. Last week, Denver’s defense held a non-descript Kansas City squad to seven points, Denver’s offense got 145 rushing yards from Willis McGahee – and the Donkeys lost 7-3. Pittsburgh is no Kansas City, meaning Tim Tebow doesn’t have a prayer, no matter how many he says.

Pittsburgh, the defending AFC champ, is at its best at this time of year, especially at the books, with ATS streaks of 10-1 in January and 9-2 in the postseason, and it’s cashed six of its last seven as playoff chalk. Denver, conversely, has lost its last three games SU and ATS and is in further ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 1-4 in the playoffs and 15-35-2 in the Mile High City.

Why Broncos cover: It’s really hard to make a case for a team that mustered just three points against the Chiefs at home last week. The Broncos are lucking out in that Pittsburgh is dinged up. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is done for the rest of the year, QB Ben Roethlisberger has a gimpy ankle, and S Ryan Clark has to sit out due to a sickle-cell trait that doesn’t handle high altitude well.

Denver has covered in five of its last six from the underdog role and five of its last six home playoff games (though they haven’t been in the playoffs in six years). The Men of Steel have been more like tin on the road lately, at 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the highway and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a SU win.

Total (34): This is quite a low number, but based on Pittsburgh’s stout defense and Denver’s anemic offense, the under is certainly plausible. The total has gone low in six straight for the Steelers. On the flip side, though, the over is 17-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 postseason affairs and 10-1 with the Steelers a playoff chalk, and the Broncos sport over streaks of 25-12 overall, 13-5 at home and 14-3 against winning teams.

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The Bum's NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets !

The Bum's NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets !

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