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  • #16
    Today's NFL Picks

    Detroit at New Orleans

    The Saints look to build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 games as a home favorite. New Orleans is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

    SATURDAY, JANUARY 7
    Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST (1/3)

    Game 101-102: Cincinnati at Houston (4:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.201; Houston 132.638
    Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 34
    Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 38
    Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Under

    Game 103-104: Detroit at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 135.158; New Orleans 150.696
    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 15 1/2; 62
    Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 58 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10 1/2); Over

    SUNDAY, JANUARY 8
    Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST (1/3)

    Game 105-106: Atlanta at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.117; NY Giants 134.383
    Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 49
    Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47
    Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over

    Game 107-108: Pittsburgh at Denver (4:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.214; Denver 124.665
    Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 31
    Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 34 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-8); Under
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      NFL Playoff Preview - Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6)



      By Michael Rushton, Contributing NFL Editor

      (Sports Network) - The last time the Houston Texans faced the Cincinnati Bengals, the 10-year-old franchise locked up its first-ever trip to the playoffs.

      While this won't be Cincinnati's first dance in the postseason, the Bengals were able to press fast forward on their development curve to grab a surprise spot in the NFL's second season.

      That should make for some anxious and butterfly-filled stomachs this Saturday at Houston's Reliant Stadium, where the Texans and Bengals will both look to keep their surprise seasons going for another week.

      Thanks to a solid core of quarterback Matt Schaub, wide receiver Andre Johnson and linebackers Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have been viewed as a team on the rise for the past few seasons, but they finally broke out this year by capturing an inaugural AFC South title and first trip to the postseason. Houston's 10-6 mark included a seven-game win streak that was capped with a 20-19 come-from-behind win at Cincinnati on Dec. 11 that locked up the division title.

      That win was Houston's third without Schaub, who was lost for the season with a foot injury. Backup Matt Leinart appeared in just one game before his season was also cut short due to a shoulder injury, forcing rookie T.J. Yates into the starting role.

      The Texans' defense has also been without Williams since early October because of a pectoral ailment, while Johnson was forced to sit out nine games this season thanks to injuries to both his hamstrings.

      Still, Houston survived under Yates, but did get a scare when he was forced out of the club's 23-22 loss to Tennessee in the regular-season finale due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Head coach Gary Kubiak said on Monday that he thinks Yates could have came back into the game and should be ready to go for this playoff opener.

      The Texans haven't won since Yates rallied his team from a 16-3 halftime deficit to beat the Bengals on a six-yard pass to Kevin Walter with only two seconds left on the clock. Houston has lost three straight since, but tight end Joel Dreessen isn't worried about the winless finish.

      "We're ripping off the rear-view mirror. The regular season is over with and the Texans are officially invited to the postseason," said Dreessen. "We open up at home [Saturday] and that's our focus right now. It's a whole new season and we have to play at our best."

      The city of Houston will host a playoff game for the first time since the Oilers tangled with the Kansas City Chiefs at the Astrodome on Jan. 16, 1994, and linebacker Brian Cushing knows the pressure is on the Texans to produce.

      "It's huge. but now it's loser-go-home from here on out," said Cushing. "We understand that. We have to come in and play the best kind of football possible and just continue to go."

      Cincinnati wasn't at its best when it had a two-game win streak snapped with a 24-16 loss to Baltimore last Sunday. Still, the Bengals backed into the AFC's sixth seed thanks to some help to return to the postseason for the second time in three years. They were one-and-done in 2009 despite an AFC North title and are in as a Wild Card team this year for the first time since 1975.

      After nabbing Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft and handing starting quarterback duties over to fellow rookie Andy Dalton, a second-round pick, the Bengals improved by five wins from last year.

      "No one gave us much credit going into the season, but we didn't worry about that. We came out and worked hard," said Dalton, who was given that starting job after Carson Palmer refused to return to the team during training camp and requested a trade that wasn't granted until Oct. 18. "We've been successful up until this point, and we've got a shot in the playoffs. We're in it. Now it's what we do with it. I think everybody's got the right attitude. We're going to have a great week and we'll be ready to go."

      One thing working against the Bengals, at least statistically, is the fact that all seven of their losses this year came against playoff teams, while none of their nine victories were against a club still playing.

      Nose tackle Domata Peko doesn't think that will influence Cincinnati's confidence at all, especially considering that five of those seven setbacks were by seven points or less.

      "We know that, but every team is great in the NFL," Peko said. "We all get paid the same, we all try to win every game, and it's just unfortunate that we're losing to some of the better teams. We've been in each of those games [and] a play or two away from winning those games, but we're just happy around here that we're in the dance and have to now prove to the world that we belong here."

      Both Dalton and Bengals running back Cedric Benson have excelled in the state of Texas before. Cincinnati's rookie signal-caller is from the Houston area and played collegiately at TCU, while Benson attended the University of Texas.

      Also of note is that should Dalton and Yates both start, it will be the first postseason game since the 1970 merger to have rookie quarterbacks for both teams, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

      SERIES HISTORY

      Last month's matchup was the sixth all-time meeting between Cincinnati and Houston, with the Texans now having taken the last three bouts after the Bengals prevailed in the first three games of the series. Cincinnati is 1-1 against the Texans at Reliant Stadium, registering a 38-3 rout there in a 2003 encounter and suffering a 35-6 road loss to Houston in 2008, and hasn't bested the Texans since a 16-10 home triumph on Oct. 2, 2005.

      Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis has gone 2-3 against Houston during his nine-year tenure as the Bengals' head coach, while Kubiak sports a 3-0 record against both Cincinnati and Lewis as a head man.

      The Bengals are 0-2 in playoff games under Lewis, having dropped a 31-17 decision to Pittsburgh in a 2005 AFC First-Round clash and a 24-14 result to the New York Jets in the 2009 opening round. Both those contests were held in Cincinnati.

      WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

      Though Dalton and Green both played well given their rookie status, the Bengals' offense was still in the bottom tier as far as performance. Cincinnati ranked 18th in the regular season with an average of 21.5 points per game and finished 20th in total offense with 319.9 yards per game. Dalton (3398 passing yards, 20 TD, 13 INT) became just the fifth rookie to pass for 3,000 yards, though, and part of the reason for his success is that the Bengals' offensive line ranked tied for fourth in the league with just 25 sacks allowed. With Dalton slinging it his way, Green (65 receptions, 7 TD) fell two catches short of Cris Collinsworth's club rookie record for receptions, but set a new team freshman mark with 1,057 receiving yards. Second-year tight end Jermaine Gresham (56 receptions, 6 TD) was also solid while ranking second on the club in catches. Cincinnati did recently lose wideout Andre Caldwell (37 receptions, 3 TD) for the season with an abdominal/groin injury, leading to bigger roles for Jerome Simpson (50 receptions, 4 TD) and rookies Andrew Hawkins (23 receptions) and Ryan Whalen. The running game is paced by the durable Benson (1067 rushing yards, 6 TD).

      Dalton and Green figure to be key for the Bengals given that the Texans ranked in the NFL's top five in total defense, against the run and the pass and scoring defense. Houston was second overall in total defense with an average of 285.7 yards allowed per game and fourth with 17.4 points allowed per outing. After struggling against the pass a season ago, the Texans upgraded with former Bengals corner Johnathan Joseph (44 tackles, 4 INT), and he responded with his first election to the Pro Bowl. Danieal Manning (59 tackles, 2 INT) was also brought in to help solidify the safety position and youngster Kareem Jackson (42 tackles, 1 INT) was solid next to Joseph. Houston has three outstanding linebackers with insiders Ryans (64 tackles) and leading-tackler Cushing (114 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), while outside starter Connor Barwin (47 tackles, 11.5 sacks) led the team in sacks. Rookie linebacker Brooks Reed (45 tackles, 6 sacks) and defensive end Antonio Smith (25 tackles, 6.5 sacks) also made plays in getting to the quarterback, while rookie end J.J. Watt (56 tackles, 5.5 sacks) played well all season. Glover Quin (77 tackles) shifted from corner to safety and was second on the team in tackles.

      WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

      Without Schaub (2479 passing yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) and having Johnson limited for most of the season, running back Arian Foster (1224 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 12 total TD) became the main focus of Houston's offense, and the reigning league rushing champion helped his club rank second in the NFL with a franchise-record 153 yards per game on the ground. In addition to being on the top rushers in the league, Foster was second on the team with 617 receiving yards and led the NFL with an average of 141.6 scrimmage yards per game. A successful Foster should take the pressure off of Yates (949 passing yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) in this big game, and a healthy Johnson (33 receptions, 2 TD) should also help. The playmaker was on a play count in his return last weekend, but should be full go for this game. Walter (39 receptions, 3 TD) and Jacoby Jones (31 receptions, 2 TD) are also options for Yates at wide receiver, while Houston boosts two solid choices at tight end in Owen Daniels (54 receptions, 3 TD) and Dreessen (28 receptions, 6 TD). Daniels was Houston's leading receiver, while Dreessen topped the teams in touchdown grabs. The Texans' offensive line allowed 33 sacks this season.

      The Bengals' seventh-ranked defense (316.3 ypg) should turn a ton of focus towards Foster after the unit was tagged last week by Baltimore's Ray Rice, who ripped off touchdown runs of 70 and 51 yards. Cincinnati, which ranks 10th against the run (104.7 ypg), will need its solid linebacking group to spy Foster. Weakside linebacker Thomas Howard (99 tackles, 1 sack) led the club in tackles in his first season in Cincinnati, while middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (88 tackles) was second. The Bengals' secondary took a hit when it lost cornerback Leon Hall (32 tackles) to injury at midseason, but Nate Clements (55 tackles, 1 sack) put together a solid campaign to reach the postseason for the first time in his career and safety Reggie Nelson (85 tackles, 2 sacks) was steady. Adam Jones (28 tackles) has been moved into a starting role with Hall hurt and took a pass interference call that set up Houston's game-winning score in the first meeting. Cincinnati's strength is up front, as it posted 14 sacks in its final four games and finished fifth in the league with 45 sacks. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins (48 tackles, 8 sacks) led all NFL interior lineman in sacks, while end Michael Johnson (41 tackles, 5.5 sacks) had an impact coming off the edge. Peko (66 tackles, 2.5 sacks) helps clog the middle and Robert Geathers (30 tackles, 3 sacks) is a good run-stopping end for a defensive unit that recovered 12 fumbles this year.

      SPECIAL TEAMS

      Bengals kicker Mike Nugent set a club record with 132 points one year after missing seven games of the 2010 campaign due to a knee injury. He hit on 33- of-38 field goals, while punter Kevin Huber averaged 44.2 yards on 91 punts while pinning 24 inside the 20-yard line. Brandon Tate is a dual threat for the Bengals, as he returns kickoffs and punts. His 543 punt return yards in 2011 were a new club record.

      Jacoby Jones is Houston's punt returner and took one back to the end zone for a score over the course of the regular season, while Manning averaged 27.4 yards on 13 kickoff returns. Sherrick McManis fielded 10 kickoffs for an average of 20.5 yards to help. Kicker Neil Rackers made 32 field goals, including four from beyond 50 yards, With rookie punter Brett Hartmann on injured reserve, veteran Matt Turk has averaged 42.7 yards on 16 punts in relief since being re- signed last month.

      OVERALL ANALYSIS

      This AFC Wild Card meeting will pit the defensively-sound Bengals against a Texans club that can rack up points and yards at a rapid pace. Houston's offense could be limited a bit under Yates, so Foster will be the key. Cincinnati, meanwhile, plays disciplined offense and waits for its defense to create chances, meaning the Bengals will need to keep the scoring down to have a chance at victory. However, shutting down both Foster and Andre Johnson could prove to be too much, and former friend Joseph could bottle up Dalton's best weapon in Green. In the end, expect the Texans to earn their first-ever playoff victory as well.

      Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Texans 20, Bengals 13
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        NFL Playoff Preview - Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3)



        By Scott Garbarini, NFL Editor

        (Sports Network) - The Detroit Lions have waited 12 long years for the opportunity they'll be receiving this weekend, though the team's sorely- anticipated return to the playoffs could be a short stay if its defense duplicates its most recent performance.

        The ascending Lions face a second consecutive tough assignment in the form of the high-flying and high-scoring New Orleans Saints, with the two prolifically pass-efficient clubs set to square off Saturday in the Superdome in an NFC First-Round Playoff that figures to deliver no shortage of offensive fireworks.

        Detroit ended over a decade's worth of frustration by breaking through with a 10-6 record over the course of the regular season, the long-suffering franchise's highest victory total since 1995 and first winning mark since 2000. That restored prominence came about in large part due to a dangerous offense that established franchise records for total yards (6,337), passing yards (4,814) and points (474) in a single year, with rising-star quarterback Matthew Stafford producing only the fifth campaign of over 5,000 yards through the air in NFL history.

        But as good as the Lions were on that of the ball, they'll still be entering Saturday's high-stakes tilt as the statistically-inferior unit. That's because the Saints generated more total yards than any team ever in matching the similarly-potent 2009 Super Bowl champion squad for the most pre-playoff wins in a season by the organization.

        The 2011 Saints accumulated an astounding 7,474 total yards and 5,347 net passing yards en route to their 13-3 record, eclipsing the 2000 St. Louis Rams of the famed "Greatest Show on Turf" era for the most in league annals for a season. Most of the damage came on the deadly-accurate right arm of quarterback Drew Brees, with the fiery veteran racking up 5,476 yards over the 16-game schedule to shatter Hall of Famer Dan Marino's NFL standard that had stood for 27 seasons.

        Brees threw for over 300 yards for the seventh straight contest to help New Orleans close out its banner regular season with a bang. Last Sunday's 45-17 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers was the Saints' eighth win in a row, and the team established a new single-game high with its 617-yard outburst.

        New Orleans has recorded over 435 yards of offense in each of its last six triumphs, including a 438-yard display in a 31-17 besting of the Lions at the Superdome on Dec. 4. Brees ended that night with 342 yards and three touchdowns and no turnovers while completing a crisp 26-of-36 attempts.

        "I think we're playing with momentum right now," said Saints head coach Sean Payton when asked if his team is in the midst of its best stretch of his six- year tenure as head coach. "I think we've gotten some takeaways here and we have some key stops [on defense]. I would avoid the blanket statements like that. I would say this season we're playing as good as we [ever] have."

        The Lions had rebounded nicely from that Week 13 setback in New Orleans by ripping off three straight wins to officially end their playoff drought, but had a rougher time in last Sunday's finale at NFC top seed Green Bay. The Detroit defense was lit up for 480 yards and a Packers-record six touchdown passes by talented reserve signal-caller Matt Flynn as the reigning world champions came out ahead in an action-filled 45-41 thriller that dropped the Lions into the conference's sixth and final playoff position to set up Saturday's daunting matchup.

        "Well, we obviously have to play better than [Sunday] if we want to advance," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz stated on Monday. "You can't ignore it. It certainly happened. I've been a part of times when you've had an effort like that and you just say, 'Hey, that wasn't us,' and you move on; but I think there's obviously things that we need to improve on, including getting some players healthy and getting guys back on the field."

        The Lions were without three key defenders, most notably difference-making tackle Ndamukong Suh, in last month's loss to the Saints. The 2010 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year sat out that game serving a league-issued suspension for unsportsmanlike conduct, while cornerback Chris Houston and free safety Louis Delmas were sidelined by knee injuries.

        Houston has since returned, while Delmas is on track to play for the first time since late November as Detroit gets a second crack at a New Orleans outfit that's gone 8-0 at home this regular season and has averaged a sizzling 41.1 points per game at the Superdome.

        The Lions have done their share of scoreboard-lighting as well as of late. Detroit put up at least 34 points for the third time in four weeks in its shootout with the Packers, with Stafford amassing a career-high 520 yards and throwing for five touchdowns and star wide receiver Calvin Johnson registering a personal-best 244 yards and his 16th scoring catch of the season on 11 grabs.

        SERIES HISTORY

        New Orleans took an 11-9-1 lead in its overall series with Detroit by virtue of three consecutive wins in the set. In addition to the previously-noted result at the Superdome last month, the Saints came through with a 45-27 home triumph of the Lions in the 2009 regular season opener and also routed Detroit by a 42-7 count at Ford Field in 2008. The Lions last topped the Saints in a 13-12 squeaker held at San Antonio's Alamo Dome in 2005 and haven't won in New Orleans since a 14-10 verdict on Sept. 3, 2000.

        Payton has come out on top in all three of his previous meetings with the Lions as a head coach, while Schwartz fell to 0-2 all-time against both New Orleans and Payton with the Week 13 loss.

        Payton sports a 4-2 composite record in postseason games, with the Saints having gone 3-0 at home in the playoffs under his direction.

        WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

        One of the few teams that can match the Saints' offensive firepower, Detroit ended the regular season fourth in the NFL in both points scored (29.6 ppg) and passing yards (300.9 ypg) and enters the playoffs on a tremendous roll, with Stafford (5038 passing yards, 41 TD, 16 INT) compiling a stellar 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final four games and averaging 428 passing yards in the Lions' last three tests. Johnson (96 receptions, 1681 yards, 16 TD) has certainly made his presence felt during the stretch run as well, with the incomparable wideout eclipsing 200 receiving yards twice in a three-week span to close out the regular season while averaging an eye-popping 23.3 yards per catch. He was held reasonably in check by the Saints in the first meeting, with New Orleans routinely employing double coverage throughout the evening, but Stafford was able to connect with several secondary targets en route to a 408-yard effort in the loss. Nate Burleson (73 receptions, 3 TD) was the primary beneficiary of the Saints' determined focus on Johnson, who wound up with a modest 69 yards on six catches, with the veteran wide receiver tying a season high with 93 yards on five grabs, while running backs Kevin Smith (356 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 7 total TD) and Maurice Morris (316 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 2 total TD) were both utilized often as options in the passing game on a night in which Stafford completed throws to 10 different players. Smith turned into a solid all-around contributor after being brought in as a midseason replacement for injured speedster Jahvid Best, and the fourth-year pro seems to be over a nagging ankle sprain that limited his touches late in the year.

        Though Stafford's yardage total would indicate otherwise, the New Orleans defense actually had a pretty effective outing in last month's win over the Lions. Coordinator Gregg Williams' crew surrendered just seven first-half points to help stake the Saints to a comfortable early lead while holding Detroit to only a 2-of-11 conversion rate on third downs for the game, and his usage of free safety Malcolm Jenkins (76 tackles, 1 sack) alongside top cornerback Jabari Greer (72 tackles, 1 INT, 18 PD) was successful at keeping Johnson relatively under wraps. New Orleans was also able to apply consistent pressure on Stafford with frequent blitz calls from the always-aggressive Williams, with those tactics resulting in three sacks and an interception of the standout young quarterback. The Saints possess one of the best pass-rushing defensive backs in football in strong safety Roman Harper (96 tackles, 7.5 sacks), the team leader in sacks, while veteran end Will Smith (35 tackles, 6.5 sacks) is a proven performer in that area and will be leading the push up front. Williams' gambling tendencies have been known to backfire at times, however, as evidenced by the league-high 14 passing plays of 40 or more yards the Saints allowed during the regular season, and the team's overall sum of nine interceptions was tied for the third-fewest in the NFL.

        WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

        A record-setting offense that gained at least 435 total yards in all but three games during the regular season and scored 40 or more points in five of the team's eight home tests has unquestionably been the driving force behind New Orleans' playoff march. And there's no debate that the group's catalyst has been Brees (5476 passing yards, 46 TD, 14 INT), who broke his own league record for season completion percentage (71.2 pct) in addition to smashing Marino's longstanding yardage mark and topping the NFL in touchdown passes. The Pro Bowl marksman has expertly distributed the football to a bevy of quality pass- catchers in engineering the Saints' lethal aerial assault, which contains three players that pose considerable matchup problems for enemy defenses in incredibly-athletic tight end Jimmy Graham (99 receptions, 1310, 11 TD), 6- foot-4 wideout Marques Colston (80 receptions, 1143 yards, 8 TD) and short- statured running back Darren Sproles (603 rushing yards, 86 receptions, 9 TD), whose versatility and explosiveness have made the offseason addition an invaluable part of the offense. Wide receiver Robert Meachem (40 receptions, 6 TD) brings another big-play element to the fold and came through with a 67-yard touchdown catch in the Week 13 win over the Lions, and the former first-round pick may be in line for increased snaps this week with steady slot man Lance Moore (52 receptions, 8 TD) appearing doubtful to play due to a hamstring pull. Sproles is the headliner of a deep running back corps that's enabled New Orleans to rank an overlooked sixth overall in yards gained on the ground (132.9 ypg), with bruiser Chris Ivory (374 rushing yards, 1 TD) having taken over as the main rusher with help from the dependable Pierre Thomas (562 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 6 total TD).

        Detroit's defense was predictably picked apart by Brees in these teams' regular-season encounter, but could very well fare better in the rematch with a trio of important starters that sat out that game back ready to go. Delmas (51 tackles) and Houston (54 tackles, 5 INT, 14 PD) represent significant upgrades on replacements Chris Harris (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Alphonso Smith (28 tackles, 3 INT), while the surly Suh (36 tackles, 4 sacks) is one of the game's premier interior disrupters and an integral part of a formidable pass rush that will be counted on to make a big impact on Saturday. The second-year tackle provides a strong inside push to complement the edge-rushing skills of unheralded end Cliff Avril (36 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 INT) and high-motor counterpart Kyle Vanden Bosch (35 tackles, 8 sacks), a duo that has combined for 19 sacks and 10 forced fumbles this season and helped the Lions rank near the top of the league in takeaways (34). Detroit also held foes to a mere 32.7 percent success rate on third downs, the third-best figure in the NFL, but was just 23rd in run defense (128.1 ypg) and gave up a troubling 5.0 yards per carry over the 16-game schedule. Physical middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch (111 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) and weakside starter DeAndre Levy (109 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are the team's top two tackles who will also be asked to play sound and disciplined coverage against the Saints' excellent contingent of receivers out of the backfield.

        SPECIAL TEAMS

        Two of the NFL's most established kickers will be on display in this one, with 42-year-old John Kasay handling those chores for the Saints and 41-year-old Jason Hanson the lone remaining member of Detroit's last playoff entry. Both can still get it done at their advanced age, as Hanson knocked home 24-of-29 field goal tries and went 5-of-7 from 50 yards or beyond in his 20th season as a Lion and Kasay (28-of-34 FG's) finished second in the league with 147 points, though the veteran lefty was a shaky 7-of-13 on field goal attempts of 40 or more yards.

        The Saints own a big advantage in the punting department, with the strong- legged Thomas Morstead (48.3 avg.) placing second in the NFL in net average (43.1) and Detroit rookie Ryan Donahue (42.7 avg.) winding up next-to-last in that category (35.6). Morstead is also an asset on kickoffs, producing a league-high 68 touchbacks over the course of the year.

        Sproles was also a weapon in the return game, with the diminutive dynamo ranking fourth in the NFC in kickoff runbacks (27.2 avg.) and taking a punt 72 yards for a touchdown in the season opener at Green Bay. Detroit's Stefan Logan put up solid numbers (25.2 avg. on KR, 8.1 avg. on PR) as the Lions' return specialist, but also had six fumbles and lost two over the club's 16 games. Neither team was good in kick coverage this season, but the Saints allowed a league-low 118 punt-return yards while Detroit permitted a troublesome 13.4 yards per attempt.

        OVERALL ANALYSIS

        Last week's shoddy defensive display may have been a harbinger of things to come for the Lions, as Brees and his band of skill players have been virtually unstoppable on the fast Superdome turf during their march to an NFC South title and had their way with their opening-round opponent just over a month ago. And there's no chance of New Orleans taking Detroit lightly either, not with the painful memory of an upset loss to a 7-9 Seattle team during last year's Wild Card weekend still fresh in the Saints players' collective minds. Both passing attacks will click with considerable potency, but the more-experienced Brees will be a bit sharper than the fresh-faced Stafford and New Orleans' often- overlooked ground game will be a factor as well. The Saints simply have too many weapons for a Detroit squad that has its flaws will be able to handle.

        Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Saints 41, Lions 24
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Wild Card Preview: Bengals at Texans

          CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-7)

          at HOUSTON TEXANS (10-6)


          AFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
          Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
          Line: Houston -3, Total: 38.5

          The Texans make their postseason debut on Saturday afternoon, taking on a Bengals team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991.

          This is a rematch of a Week 14 game in Cincinnati, when QB T.J. Yates and the Texans scored a go-ahead TD with two seconds left for a 20-19 win. Houston had four turnovers in that game (three lost fumbles), but outgained the Bengals 412-285. The Texans D matches up well with the Bengals’ offense, which relies heavily on big plays to receivers A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson. The Texans secondary, led by former Bengals CB Johnathan Joseph, is one of the NFL’s elite. Green and Simpson combined for just 97 yards in the first meeting. The Bengals went 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS) against 2011 playoff teams, and will not be able to keep up with a well-rested Texans squad. The pick here is HOUSTON, 6-0 ATS when the spread is -3 to +3 this year, to win and cover.

          This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Texans:

          Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - in conference games, off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. (49-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (71%, +27 units. Rating = 2*).

          CINCINNATI is 4-16 ATS (20.0%, -13.6 Units) after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was CINCINNATI 16.0, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 2*).

          The Under is 11-5 in Texans games this year, and this game also figures to be low-scoring with two strong defenses and a pair of rookie quarterbacks starting under center. The FoxSheets agree, by showing this three-star trend backing the UNDER.

          Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (HOUSTON) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games.(45-16 since 1983.) (73.8%, +27.4 units. Rating = 3*).

          Cincinnati rookie QB Andy Dalton has had a solid season with 3,398 passing yards, 20 TD and 13 INT. He’s thrown only one interception in his past six games, but has just 5 TD passes and has struggled with his accuracy in this stretch (56%). Dalton had a decent showing against Houston’s excellent pass defense (190 YPG, 3rd in NFL) in the Dec. 11 meeting, completing 16-of-28 passes for 189 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. RB Cedric Benson also had a big day against a top-notch Texans rush defense (96 YPG, 4th in NFL), rumbling for 91 yards on 21 carries (4.3 YPC). But since that game, Benson has totaled just 184 yards (3.6 YPC) and has been limited at practice with a foot injury. He’ll start, but it’s unclear how healthy his foot really is.

          On the Texans injury front, Yates is expected to start despite sitting out the majority of the Week 17 loss with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Yates hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since the game-winner in Cincy, connecting on 36-of-50 attempts (72%) for 391 yards (7.82 YPA) and 2 INT since then. Yates hasn’t been on the field much at the same time with Andre Johnson, but the Texans star WR usually shines in big games, and this will be his postseason debut. Head coach Gary Kubiak projects Johnson to play 45-to-50 snaps on Saturday, which gives him plenty of opportunities to make big plays.

          But the one player who will most decide the Texans’ postseason fate is RB Arian Foster. He sat out last week’s game, and missed the first two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, but still wound up with 1,224 rushing yards (4.4 YPC), 617 receiving yards and 12 total touchdowns in 13 games. But Foster had his worst game of the season against the Bengals, rushing for a season low 2.7 YPC (15 carries, 41 yards). However, Foster loves playing in Reliant Stadium, with four straight 100-yard games at home (114 YPG). RB Ben Tate will also play a big role in this game, as he’s coming off 97 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) against Tennessee. Tate piled up 97 total yards against Cincy in the Week 14 meeting, including 67 rushing yards on just eight carries (8.4 YPC). The Bengals defense is solid throughout though, ranking 10th in the NFL in rushing (105 YPC) and ninth in defending the pass (212 YPG).
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #20
            Wild Card Preview: Falcons at Giants

            ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6)

            at NEW YORK GIANTS (9-7)


            NFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
            Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
            Line: New York -3, Total: 47.5

            Two teams that finished the season 3-1 square off at Met Life Stadium when the Giants host the Falcons in an NFC Wild Card game. Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2004 season and New York hasn’t won a home game in the postseason since the 2000 NFC Championship.

            The Giants already won one must-win game, and they’re looking to finally get some postseason momentum going at home. QB Eli Manning has been awful in two career home playoff starts (0 TD, 5 INT, 31.8 passer rating). The Giants failed to score a touchdown and were outscored a combined 46-11 in these defeats. But the New Jersey weather could be just as troublesome for the Falcons, which haven’t had to play in the elements all year (they haven’t played in a cold-weather city since early October). Both teams have excellent wide receivers, but Atlanta (115 rush YPG) has a decisive edge over New York (89 rush YPG, last in NFL) in the running game. Falcons RB Michael Turner, who has been battling a groin injury, finally looks healthy as he ran over Tampa Bay for 172 yards and two scores on just 17 carries (10.1 YPG) last week. The pick here is underdog ATLANTA, which is 4-1 SU (5-0 ATS) in the past five road meetings with the Giants.

            The FoxSheets provides a pair of anti-Giants trends that support the Falcons:

            Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N.Y. GIANTS) - terrible defensive team (>=370 YPG) against an average defensive team (295 to 335 YPG). (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*).

            Tom Coughlin is 5-16 ATS (23.8%, -12.6 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of N.Y. GIANTS. The average score was N.Y. GIANTS 21.6, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 2*).

            The Falcons have played four straight games Over the total, and the FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the OVER to hit again.

            Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (N.Y. GIANTS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. (65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*).

            QB Matt Ryan has played poorly in his two postseason games (71.2 passer rating, 3 TD, 4 INT), both SU and ATS losses. But he has been on fire since the start of November, completing 62% of his passes for 2,494 yards (277 YPG), 20 TD and just 4 INT. He has been sacked just eight times in these nine games, but New York brings a fierce defensive line that has the majority of the team’s 48 sacks this season (T-3rd in NFL). Jason Pierre-Paul is the team’s top pass rusher with 16.5 sacks this year.

            Both Falcons starting WRs Roddy White (1,296 rec yds, 8 TD) and rookie Julio Jones (959 rec yds, 8 TD) are capable of torching a suspect Giants pass defense allowing the fourth-most yards in the NFL (255 passing YPG). TE Tony Gonzalez (875 rec yds, 7 TD) has never won a playoff game in his Hall of Fame career (0-4 record) and was held to just one catch for seven yards in last year’s home loss to Green Bay. The G-Men have a below-average run defense that ranks 19th in the league (121 YPG), but Turner has done very little in his playoff career, rushing for 269 yards on 74 carries (3.6 YPC) and three touchdowns in six lifetime postseason games.

            Manning’s passer rating was just 76.5 this December (7.98 YPA, 6 TD, 6 INT), but he had a tremendous season finale against Dallas, completing 24-of-33 passes for 346 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He has taken just 28 sacks this season, the seventh-fewest amount in the league. Manning has also been clutch in the fourth quarter, setting an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter TD passes and finishing second in the NFL in fourth-quarter passer rating (110.0). WR Victor Cruz continues to play as well as any wideout on the planet, catching six passes for 178 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown. He also had a 99-yard TD reception in Week 16, giving him an absurd 342 yards in his past two games. The other starting WR Hakeem Nicks, appears to be fully healed from his hamstring injury, catching five passes for 76 yards and a score against Dallas.

            RB Ahmad Bradshaw is another of the walking wounded for New York, has he has battled a foot injury for the good part of this season. The elusive Bradshaw entered this season with a career 4.8 YPC average, but that has dropped to 3.9 YPC this year. Bruising RB Brandon Jacobs was held to 16 yards on seven carries against Dallas last week, but was averaging a whopping 5.6 YPC in his previous four games. Both backs will be certainly be tested by a strong Falcons run defense that ranks sixth in the NFL (97 YPG).
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              Wild Card Preview: Steelers at Broncos

              PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

              at DENVER BRONCOS (8-8)


              AFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
              Kickoff: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
              Line: Pittsburgh -8.5, Total: 33.5

              The Broncos try to stop a three-game slide, but it won’t be easy when a red-hot Steelers team, 10-2 in its past dozen games, visits Denver on Sunday.

              The NFL has caught up to Tim Tebow. Against the Bills and Chiefs the past two weeks, Tebow completed 37.3% of his passes for 245 yards, rushed for 50, and turned it over six times while leading the Broncos to just 17 points. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau figures to have no problem limiting Denver’s offense. But the Steelers have a rash of injuries that will limit them. QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is less than 100%, and the Pittsburgh offense has managed just 30 points in his three starts since he got hurt. And now RB Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and FS Ryan Clark (high altitude condition) are both out. Denver’s defense is usually tough at home, limiting three of its past four visitors to 13, 10 and 7 points, and the Steelers are just 2-6 ATS on the road this year. With this contest figuring to be a defensive struggle, the pick here is home underdog DENVER to keep the final score within a touchdown spread.

              This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Broncos:

              Play On - Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a playing a game where 10 total points or less were scored. (30-11 since 1983.) (73.2%, +17.9 units. Rating = 2*).

              Play Against - Road favorites (PITTSBURGH) - excellent offensive team (>=370 YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games. (57-27 since 1983.) (67.9%, +27.3 units. Rating = 2*).

              The Steelers have played six straight games Under the total, and this game should be low-scoring as well. But the FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the OVER on such a low Total.

              Play Over - Any team where the total is 35 or less (PITTSBURGH, DENVER) - in January games. (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

              The Steelers have been a great bet in the playoffs, going 10-3 (9-4 ATS) in 13 postseason games with Roethlisberger. His ankle has gotten better, but it has clearly affected his play over the past two weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger faced two great pass defenses with San Francisco and Cleveland, but he completed just 48-of-84 passes (57%) for 551 yards (6.56 YPA), 0 TD and 3 INT in these two contests. That drops his passer rating to a subpar 77.5 on the road this year (7 TD, 10 INT). However, the thin air has always suited Roethlisberger well. In three career games in Denver, which includes a 34-17 playoff win in 2006, he has completed 66-of-93 passes (71%) for 798 yards (8.58 YPA), 9 TD and 3 INT.

              Mendenhall, who rushed for 155 yards (7.0 YPC) in his last trip to Denver in 2009, will certainly be missed in the running game. Second-year man Isaac Redman will start in Mendenhall’s place and try to build on a strong 92-yard performance at Cleveland last week. For the season, Redman has 479 rushing yards on a healthy 4.4 YPC, and Denver’s defense allows 126 rushing YPG, including 147 YPG in the past six contests.

              Denver is making its first playoff appearance since losing at home to Pittsburgh nearly six years ago. The Broncos have really hurt themselves with turnovers, posting a minus-8 TO margin during the three-game skid. But they still have the league’s top rushing offense at 165 YPG, and have gained 601 yards on 5.3 YPC in the past three contests. RB Willis McGahee showed that he is fully healed from his hamstring injury, rushing 28 times for 145 yards versus the Chiefs last week. However, McGahee has faced Pittsburgh’s defense eight times in his career, and hasn’t fared too well, rushing for 270 yards on 3.5 YPC and 5 TD. The Steelers rank eighth in the NFL in rushing defense (100 YPG), and have held nine of their past 10 opponents under 110 yards. The loss of Clark and the potential absence of LB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) will benefit Denver, but Tebow doesn’t figure to attempt many passes against the Steelers who lead the NFL with 172 passing YPG allowed.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Wild Card Preview: Lions at Saints

                DETROIT LIONS (10-6)

                at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (13-3)


                NFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
                Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
                Line: New Orleans -10.5, Total: 59

                The Lions make their first playoff appearance since the 1999 season when they visit the Saints, winners of eight in a row (SU and ATS), on Saturday night at the Superdome.

                The New Orleans offense has been unstoppable at home. The Saints are averaging 41.1 PPG and 493 total YPG while going 8-0 SU and ATS at the Superdome. That included a 31-17 win over the Lions in Week 13 when Drew Brees threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Detroit’s defense was embarrassed by Green Bay’s second-string offense last week, allowing 45 points to the Matt Flynn-led Packers. Detroit’s only chance would seem to be to keep up with the Saints offensively. Detroit is averaging 35.3 PPG over their past four games, but the Saints did limit WR Calvin Johnson in their first meeting (six catches, 69 yards) and Detroit went just 2-for-11 on third down. But the Saints have had little trouble covering big spreads recently, going 5-2 ATS when favored by 8 points or more. The pick here is NEW ORLEANS, 10-1 ATS in domes this season, to win and cover the hefty spread.

                This pair of FoxSheets trends also sides with the Saints:

                Play On - Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (54-26 since 1983.) (67.5%, +25.4 units. Rating = 2*).

                Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.(96-58 since 1983.) (62.3%, +32.2 units. Rating = 2*).

                Most people expect this game to be incredibly high-scoring and so do the FoxSheets, which provide this five-star trend favoring the OVER.

                Sean Payton is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) off of 2 straight division games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 34.5, OPPONENT 22.6 - (Rating = 5*).

                The Lions haven’t had much trouble scoring on the road this year, putting up 28.9 PPG and 417 total YPG. Calvin Johnson, who led the NFL with 1,681 receiving yards, had an incredible 1,025 yards and 10 TD in his eight road games alone. The Saints were the only home team to hold him below 80 yards. QB Matthew Stafford also had amazing road numbers, throwing for 2,838 yards (355 YPG), 21 TD and 9 INT. He torched New Orleans’ subpar secondary (260 YPG, 3rd-worst in NFL) for 408 yards on 9.27 YPA, but only had 1 TD with 1 INT. Six different Lions had 40+ receiving yards in that game, led by Nate Burleson’s 93 yards. Detroit rushed for a respectable 87 yards on 22 carries (4.0 YPC) in the loss, but has averaged 72 YPG on 3.7 yards per carry in four games since. Considering the Saints had held five straight opponents to 105 rushing yards or less (72 YPG) before allowing 164 to Carolina last week, Detroit doesn’t figure to chew up a whole lot of yards rushing the football on Saturday night, especially with Kevin Smith still not fully recovered from his ankle injury.

                On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense has been pretty poor in the second half of the season, allowing 30.0 PPG and 285 passing YPG. That doesn’t bode well against Drew Brees, especially at home. In his eight Superdome games this year, Brees has completed 72% of his throws for 2,624 yards (328 YPG, 8.75 YPA), 29 TD and 6 INT (122.4 rating). He has only been sacked eight times in these home contests, but Detroit does have a strong defensive line with 41 sacks for the season, including 11 by DE Cliff Avril. DT Ndamukong Suh, last year’s top defensive rookie, also gives opposing offense nightmares. But Suh has made more headlines for non-football related matters than what he’s done on the field, posting a paltry 13 tackles and one sack in his past seven games. Detroit has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as DT Corey Williams (hip), FS Louis Delmas (knee) and CB Aaron Berry (shoulder) are all questionable to play in this game.

                Although Brees grabs all the headlines for the Saints with a talented group of receivers: TE Jimmy Graham (1,310 rec yds, 11 TD) and WRs Marques Colston (1,143 rec yds, 8 TD), Lance Moore (627 rec yds, 8 TD) and Robert Meachem (620 rec yds, 6 TD), the team can also run the football. New Orleans has the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (133 YPG), which includes 178 rushing YPG over the past three games. Chris Ivory ran for 127 yards on just 19 carries (6.7 YPC) last week, and both Pierre Thomas (562 rush yds, 5.1 YPC) and Darren Sproles (603 rush yds, 6.9 YPC) are capable of breaking off big gains. Sproles has also been huge in the passing attack, catching 86 balls for 710 yards and seven scores. The Lions have had their problems defending the run too, surrendering 128 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL). That number has dropped significantly after they gave up just 94 rushing YPG in the season’s final three games.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #23
                  NFL | CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
                  Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) in conference games, off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less
                  49-20 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
                  6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
                  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  NFL | DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS
                  Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season
                  36-24 over the last 10 seasons. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
                  1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
                  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  NFL | DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS
                  Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game
                  59-26 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
                  8-4 this year. ( 66.7% | 3.6 units )
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    NFL playoffs: New OT rules could help over bettors

                    Twenty-five NFL playoff games have gone to overtime, including 10 in the past 10 years. It’s rare, but not at all unheard of.

                    Over bettors will get a nice break if it happens again this year. That’s because the NFL changed playoff overtime rules before last year’s postseason.

                    The team that gets the ball first must score a touchdown to end the game on the first possession. If that team kicks a field goal, the other team gets the ball with a chance to tie with a field goal or win with a touchdown.

                    The defense can win the game on the opening possession by scoring a touchdown or safety.

                    If the game remains tied after both teams had possession, traditional sudden-death rules apply: First team to score wins.

                    So instead of adding the usual three points to the total, an OT game in this year’s playoffs could add more – 6, 9 or even 12.

                    Oddsmakers don’t figure overtime into their totals.

                    “Everything is designed for regulation,” said Pete Korner, founder of the Las Vegas-based Sports Club oddsmaking service. “If it goes into overtome, that’s just a fortunate or unfortunate circumstance for the bettor. We never factor in overtime on any total.”

                    Ironically, the last playoff game to go to OT ended on a touchdown. Darren Sproles’ 22-yard run gave the Chargers a 23-17 win over the Colts on Jan. 3, 2009. Still, the score fell way short of the 49 total.

                    Coaches say the new rules forced changes in overtime strategy.

                    Teams that get the ball first will be more aggressive in trying to score TDs, so the other team won’t get the ball back.

                    If a team trails by a field goal, every possession becomes a four-down possession. That alters play-calling on third down.

                    Defensively, if a player makes an end-zone interception on the first possession, the player probably should take the touchback. Because if the player returns it and fumbles, it could give the opponent the ball in field-goal range. The interception would count as both teams having had possession. So a field goal wins the game.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Comparing NFL playoff teams vs. NFL playoff teams

                      One of the most important elements in handicapping sports is comparing apples to apples.

                      This is especially true when in comes to the postseason when teams enter into either playoff or tournament competition.

                      In football games, one key component is weighing each team’s performance against other like opposition. In the college bowl games, we compare bowler-versus-bowler results to gain a better handle on how teams fared throughout the regular season. In the NFL, we put playoff teams on the scale in games they played against other playoff teams throughout the season.

                      Often times, the results are eye opening, especially when stacked against one another. For your perusal, here are the findings of NFL playoff teams in games played versus other playoff teams this 2011 season:

                      AFC Teams

                      Team SU ATS O/U
                      Baltimore 6-0 5-0-1 4-2
                      Cincinnati 0-7 1-5-1 5-2
                      Denver 1-3 0-4 4-0
                      Houston 3-2 3-2 3-2
                      N England 1-2 1-2 1-2
                      Pittsburgh 3-4 3-4 3-4

                      NFC Teams

                      Atlanta 1-4 1-4 1-4
                      Detroit 1-5 1-5 2-4
                      Green Bay 6-0 5-1 4-2
                      N Orleans 5-1 5-1 4-2
                      NY Giants 1-3 2-2 3-1
                      S Francisco 4-1 4-1 1-4

                      Betcha Didn’t Know

                      • The Bengals were 9-0 SU versus non-playoff teams and 0-7 SU versus playoff foes.

                      • The Saints were 4-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome.

                      • The Packers were 3-0 SU and ATS at Lambeau Field, scoring 42 or more points in each game.

                      • The Texans were 2-0 SU and ATS at home, playing under in both games.

                      • The Steelers were 1-3 SU and ATS away.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Las Vegas Money Moves

                        January 6, 2012

                        There wasn’t a line on the board for this week’s Wild Card games that caused sharp or public money to coming running into Las Vegas sports books betting windows for perceived value. However, with two of the games posted up at minus-3, it was only a matter of time before those lines would shift one way or another and it happened on Friday.
                        Saturday’s early game has the Bengals visiting Houston where the Texans opened as three-point favorites, but have now been bet up to -3 ½. Most sports books went up the money ladder going to -3 (-120) until moving the spread while the South Point bounced back and forth twice when they became the first to offer 3 ½. The South Point is the only book to use flat numbers. When they saw there was immediate money to be had at +3 ½ with the Bengals, they went back down to 3, but at that time, everyone else had -3 (-120) which made their -3 flat number far more attractive and Texans money came in again bumping them to where they are now at -3 ½.

                        There were 35 NFL games that landed on ‘3’ (13.7%) this season, a drop of almost four percent from last season (17.6%) and one percent less than the last 5-year average (14.7%), but it‘s always a number that creates the most sharp business.

                        In years past when ‘3’ landed at a high rate, it wasn’t unusual to see sharp players play the percentages by taking the +3 ½ and laying the -3 at different times of the week, taking a shot that the game would land on ‘3.‘ The big bonus for them was when the key number was straddled giving the opportunity to win both sides. If it didn’t, then they lost a bit of juice, but their math was usually correct and when applying that strategy, they did pretty well over the long haul in those seasons.

                        Obviously, this season hasn’t been one of those. In fact, the number that showed up more frequently than the last few seasons was ’7’ which landed 30 times (11.7%). Last season ‘7’ hit only 7.9% of the time and the five year average has been 9.8%.

                        With ‘7’ landing more frequently and ‘3’ less, it’s surprising that more books haven’t protected 6.5, 7 and 7.5 with money attached up and down the ladder the way they do with 2.5, 3, and 3.5.

                        The other game sitting on ’3’ has the Giants hosting the Falcons. The Giants have been a strong 3-point favorite all week, but Atlanta money has found its way to a few books who have dropped the money to -3 (EVEN) on the Giants, an indication that we may see a 2 ½ soon. That number will most likely be at the South point once they reach their threshold at +3 on the Falcons.

                        The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened the Steelers as 7 ½-point road favorites at Denver and the number currently sits at -9. Despite the Steelers not having running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and safety Ryan Clark (medical) for this game, the public still believes in a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger at playoff time more than a team on a three-game losing streak with a quarterback (Tim Tebow) who can’t throw. This is the most weighted game in public ticket counts with parlays and teasers featuring the Steelers prominently.

                        The total in this game has dropped from 35 to 33 ½, in part because of the Broncos poor offensive efforts the last two weeks, along with the admission that the Steelers appear the play to their level of competition. Pittsburgh played ugly ball this season with Jacksonville, Kansas City and Cleveland twice and Denver has shown all season that their willing to play some ugly ball as well. You can't help but thinking of Knicks-Pistons basketball from the early nineties when thinking about ugly ball.

                        The Saints are the second most weighted public team this week. They are 10 ½-point favorites against the Lions in a rematch from Week 13, which saw New Orleans win 31-17 as 9-point favorites. It’s easy to see why the public is all over the Saints because they have covered their last 8 games, plus they’ve gone 8-0 ATS at home as well. Why make a case for the Lions now?

                        The Saints total opened 58 ½ at the Hilton, which looks to be the highest number ever in postseason play, and has been bet up to 59 ½.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Wild Card Saturday

                          January 5, 2012

                          Wild Card weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon with three teams that didn't make the postseason a year ago. The AFC South champion Texans head to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history as they host the Bengals, followed by the Saints and Lions hooking up at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the nightcap. We'll begin in the Lone Star State with a pair of rookie quarterbacks looking to advance to the divisional playoffs.

                          Bengals at Texans (-3, 38 ½) - 4:30 PM EST - NBC

                          It seemed that when Peyton Manning was likely going to miss the entire season due to a neck injury, that the Texans were the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South. Houston didn't disappoint as Gary Kubiak's club finished 10-6 to claim the division crown, despite the fact the Texans lost their final three games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Bengals dropped five of eight games down the stretch, but were able to qualify for the playoffs thanks to a winning a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Titans.

                          Cincinnati's road to the postseason took some interesting turns, even before the season began. The Carson Palmer era was coming to an abrupt halt after retirement threats, but the drafting of former TCU quarterback Andy Dalton turned out to be the blessing in disguise this franchise needed. Dalton started the final 15 games of the season and threw for 3,398 yards, while throwing for over 300 yards on just two occasions (both losses). Cincinnati's total defense ranked 7th in the league by allowing 316 yards per game, but the biggest exposure for the Bengals is very easy to find.

                          The Bengals began the season at 6-2, while covering seven times in the first eight contests. However, all six of those victories came against non-playoff teams (Browns, Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks, and Titans). The two losses came to the NFC West champion 49ers and the AFC West champion Broncos, even though Cincinnati cashed as 3 ½-point road underdogs at Denver. The final three wins for the Bengals came against the Browns, Rams, and Cardinals, while losing twice each to division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh. One of the losses that almost cost the Bengals a playoff spot came in Week 14 against Saturday's opponent.

                          The Texans rallied past the Bengals in early December at Paul Brown Stadium, 20-19 as 2 ½-point 'dogs, the last win Houston pulled out prior to a three-game skid. T.J. Yates made several big plays on the final drive, including rushing for a first down on 3rd and 15 to keep the drive alive in Cincinnati territory. The rookie quarterback from North Carolina hit Kevin Walter for the game-winning touchdown strike in the final seconds of regulation to cap off a 13-point comeback, while Yates compiled his first (and only) 300-yard passing game of his short career.

                          Houston endured plenty of injuries this season, including the loss of starting quarterback Matt Schaub and standout receiver Andre Johnson for weeks at a time. Johnson has played in just three games since a hamstring injury suffered in a Week 4 victory over the Steelers, but the Pro Bowler will be a larger part of the offense this week. Schaub injured his foot in a Week 10 rout of Tampa Bay, while losing backup Matt Leinart the following week to a broken collarbone.

                          Defensively, the Texans played the final three months without former top pick Mario Williams, who suffered a torn chest muscle in a home loss to the Raiders. However, Houston's defense overcame the injury to their Pro Bowl defensive end by ranking 4th in the league in rushing defense and 3rd in passing defense. The Texans cashed the 'under' in 10 of 16 games, including a 6-2 'under' mark at Reliant Stadium this season.

                          Houston finished the regular season at 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite, while beating playoff teams Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home. Meanwhile, Cincinnati compiled a 4-3-1 ATS ledger in the underdog role, even though its last cover as a 'dog came in an early November comeback win at Tennessee.

                          Lions at Saints (-10 ½, 59 ½) - 8:00 PM EST - NBC

                          One year after getting bounced in the opening round of the playoffs, New Orleans is back where it belongs with a home playoff game against upstart Detroit. The Saints are currently the hottest team from both the SU and ATS standpoint, owning an 8-0 SU/ATS mark the last eight games since getting upset as 13 ½-point road favorites at St. Louis in Week 8. The Lions are making their first playoff appearance since 1999 after wrapping up the sixth seed in the NFC with a 10-6 record.

                          New Orleans' offense is rolling during this eight-game winning streak by scoring 40 or more points in three straight games. Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's all-time passing yardage record in a season, while tossing a career-best 46 touchdown passes and completing 71% of his attempts. The dominating fashion in which the Saints play in the Big Easy is fairly obvious this season by winning seven of eight home contests by 11 points or more.

                          The Lions shocked many casual football fans (and probably their own fans) with a 5-0 start out of the gate, including three road victories. Detroit cooled off by losing five of its next seven games, but solidified a spot in the postseason with three wins in the final four contests. The Lions eclipsed the 34-point mark eight times, while Matt Stafford finally lived up to the hype with 5,038 yards passing and 41 touchdowns.

                          Jim Schwartz's team started as a bettor's dream with four covers in the first five games during the 5-0 run, but quickly turned into a nightmare by putting together a 3-7-1 ATS record the final 11 contests. Detroit put up plenty of high-scoring contests away Ford Field with seven 'overs' in eight away games, but the lone 'under' came at the Superdome in Week 13.

                          The Saints took care of the Lions, 31-17 as nine-point favorites, while jumping out to a 24-7 halftime lead. Detroit played that game without DT Ndamukong Suh, who was serving the second game of a two-game suspension handed down by the NFL for unnecessary roughness in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay. The absence of Suh provided Brees with very little pressure, as the Saints' quarterback tossed three touchdowns and 342 yards. The game finished 'under' the total of 55, one of three occurrences in which Detroit cashed the 'under' in games closing at 50 or below.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                          • #28
                            Total Talk - Wild Card

                            January 7, 2012

                            Season Recap

                            Coincidentally, the season began with some shootouts and it ended with some too. Five teams busted the 40-point barrier in Week 17 and another four put up 30-plus as well. In the end, the ‘over’ went 9-7. On the season, the ‘under’ still produced a 129-120-5 (52%) mark. What’s a little surprising with the overall number is that the ‘over’ went 19-13-1 (59%) in the primetime games played on Sunday and Monday.

                            First Round Trends

                            The ‘under’ has produced a 17-11 (61%) in the first round of the playoffs the last seven seasons, which includes a 3-1 mark last year. Obviously anything can happen, evidenced by a 4-0 ‘over’ run in 2009 but the angles normally lead to low-scoring affairs.

                            First Round Total History (2004-2010)
                            2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)
                            St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5
                            Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37
                            N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43
                            New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37

                            Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56
                            Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5
                            Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5
                            Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5


                            2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)
                            Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5
                            Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39
                            Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48
                            Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41
                            New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5
                            N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5
                            Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5
                            San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39


                            2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)
                            Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24
                            Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34
                            San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49
                            Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5
                            Baltimore 27 Baltimore 9 - UNDER 38
                            Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5
                            Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41
                            Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48


                            2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (TBD)
                            Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5
                            Cincinnati at Houston
                            N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44
                            New Orleans at Detroit
                            Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41
                            Atlanta at N.Y. Giants
                            Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5
                            Pittsburgh at Denver



                            Overtime Rules

                            We mentioned these last year and while it may or may not matter, it’s good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- this postseason, each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.

                            Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!

                            Saturday, Jan. 7

                            Cincinnati at Houston: The Texans beat the Bengals 20-19 in Week 14 on the road and the combined 39 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing total of 37 ½ points. The game had nine scores, but only three were touchdowns. The final score was the dagger for ‘under’ bettors, which came with two seconds left. QB T.J. Yates, who was making his first start, tied the game at 19-19 with a six-yard touchdown pass before Neil Rackers sealed the win with a PAT. The total for the second encounter opened at 39 but is sitting at 38 ½ points. You could make a case that the total is too high, considering the Texans (17.4 PPG) and Bengals (20.2) both have legit defensive units. Houston has seen the ‘under’ go 10-5-1 this season, including a 6-1-1 mark at Reliant Stadium. Conversely, Cincinnati has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road.

                            Detroit at New Orleans: This matchup will also feature two teams meeting for the second time this season, as the Saints beat the Lions 31-17 in Week 13 on SNF. The game went ‘under’ the number (55.5) but could’ve easily gone the other way. New Orleans led 24-7 at the break but only put up seven in the final 30 minutes. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ when you look at the numbers. New Orleans has put up 41.1 points per game at home this season and Detroit’s attack (28.9 PPG) has been outside of the Motor City. The total is super-high (59), yet understood. The Lions have had three games with totals listed at 50 or higher and all three went ‘under.’ Meanwhile, New Orleans owns a 6-2 ‘over’ record with totals in the fifties.

                            Sunday, Jan. 8

                            Atlanta at N.Y. Giants: Tough total to handicap here, especially when the weather could be unpredictable by kickoff. The Falcons closed the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets, with the offense putting up an average of 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Giants closed with three consecutive ‘under’ winners behind a defense that gave up 51 combined points. So what will give here? Atlanta has been in two playoff games under head coach Mike Smith and both went ‘over’ as the team gave up 48 and 30 points albeit to Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Kurt Warner (Arizona). Is Eli in that class? If you judge a quarterback by his playoff performances, then make a note that the younger Manning is 4-3 in the postseason. Ironically, all four wins came during the incredible 2007 Super Bowl run and Eli has never led the Giants’ offense to more than 24 points in the playoffs.

                            Pittsburgh at Denver: The last game of the Wild Card round also has the lowest total and it keeps dropping. The opener was as high as 35 ½ at a couple offshore outfits and its hovering around 34. Despite having a one-dimensional attack, the Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 on the season, including 5-3 at home. Also, Denver has played four playoff teams this season and its defense has given up 22, 49, 45 and 41 points. Pittsburgh enters this game banged up, but the defense is playing lights out. The unit has given up an average of 7.5 PPG in the final six games, and to no surprise the ‘under’ has cashed in all of these games too. We understand that the Steelers haven’t faced any juggernauts during this stretch, and it’s hard to see Denver explode here. If you want to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot, then perhaps turn your attention to Pittsburgh’s head coach. Mike Tomlin has been on the sidelines for seven playoff games for the Black and Gold and all seven have gone ‘over’ the number. Will the trend continue at Mile High?
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • #29
                              Sunday's Playoff Primer

                              January 6, 2012

                              The NFL Playoffs continue Sunday with another doubleheader starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. That’s when the New York Giants will take on Atlanta at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands on FOX.
                              Most betting shops are listing Tom Coughlin’s club as a three-point favorite with a total of 47 ½. Gamblers can take the Falcons to win outright for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).

                              New York (9-7 straight up, 8-7-1 against the spread) won three of its last four games to win the NFC East, including a win-and-you’re-in victory over Dallas last Sunday night. The G-Men captured a 31-14 triumph over the Cowboys as a three-point home favorite.

                              Eli Manning completed 24-of-33 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Victor Cruz’s breakout campaign continued as he hauled in six receptions for 178 yards, including a 71-yard TD reception in which he did most of the work with YAC (yards after [the] catch).

                              Perhaps most importantly, New York was able to get after Tony Romo, sacking the Dallas quarterback six times. Osi Umenyiora had a pair of sacks, while Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul both had one apiece.

                              Atlanta (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) is the NFC’s No. 5 seed thanks to last week’s 45-24 win over Tampa Bay as a 10-point home favorite. The victory, coupled with Detroit’s loss at Green Bay, gave the Falcons the fifth slot by virtue of their 23-16 win over the Lions earlier this year. (Therefore, they don’t have to face the Saints, at least not yet.)

                              Michael Turner rushed 17 times for 178 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers. Matt Ryan completed 6-of-9 passes for 106 yards and a pair of scores before being given the rest of the day off. Rookie WR Julio Jones was on the receiving end of both scoring strikes.

                              For the season, Ryan has connected on 61.4 percent of his throws for 4,177 yards with a 29/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Boston College product has three lethal weapons in TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White and the aforementioned Jones.

                              White had a team-high 100 receptions for 1,296 yards and eight TDs, while Gonzalez made 80 catches for 875 yards and seven TDs. Despite missing three full games and parts of two others, Jones had 54 receptions for 959 yards and eight TDs. Turner carried the load on the ground, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

                              Even without a reliable running game to lean on, Manning played extremely well during the regular season, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards (4,933) with a 29/16 TD-INT ratio. Cruz had 82 catches for 1,536 yards and nine TDs, while Hakeem Nicks produced 76 receptions for 1,192 yards and seven TDs.

                              Although both New York RBs are now healthy, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were bothered by various injuries throughout the year. They combined for 1,230 rushing yards and 16 TDs, but both players had mediocre YPC averages (Bradshaw: 3.9, Jacobs: 3.8).

                              In my opinion, the most important matchup of the game is Atlanta’s offensive line vs. the Giants’ defensive front four. Pass protection was an issue at times for the Falcons, but part of that was due to injuries and the entire group is now healthy.

                              They’ll go up against a fierce Giants’ pass rush led by Pierre-Paul, who had a team-high 16 ½ sacks. Umenyiora had nine sacks even though he missed seven games.

                              Atlanta went 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this year, compiling a 1-2 record both SU and ATS in three road underdog situations. Meanwhile, the Giants posted a 4-4 SU record and a 3-4-1 ATS mark at home.

                              The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for the Falcons with each contest having 54 combined points or more. However, they saw the ‘under’ go 9-7 overall while totals were a wash (4-4) in their eight road assignments.

                              The ‘over’ went 8-7-1 overall for the G-Men, but the ‘under’ was 4-3-1 in their home outings.

                              In the late game Sunday, Denver (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) will play host to Pittsburgh in the AFC quarterfinals. Most spots are listing the Steelers as 8 ½-point favorites with a total of 33 ½. The Broncos are plus-350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).

                              Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) has won six of its last seven games, but it is not in a good situation in terms of health going into the postseason. QB Ben Roethlisberger sustained a severe ankle sprain in a Dec. 8 win over Cleveland and he hasn’t been the same player since then.

                              Big Ben was ineffective in a 20-3 loss at San Francisco and then sat out the next week’s win over St. Louis. In a 13-9 Week 17 win at Cleveland, Roethlisberger re-aggravated the injury. He’ll play at Denver but won’t be at 100 percent.

                              Three key players won’t be in uniform for the Steelers, though. RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,082 rushing yards, 9 TDs) tore his ACL last week against the Browns, while starting safety Ryan Clark (blood disorder in high altitudes) and Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) are also ‘out.’

                              Mike Tomlin’s squad has been favored by seven or more on the road three times this year, going 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS. The Steelers won but failed to cover at Indy (23-20), at KC (13-9) and at Cleveland (13-9). They have won five of their eight road games but are an abysmal 2-6 versus the number.

                              Likewise, Denver has been atrocious at home for our purposes, limping to a 1-7 spread record at Sports Authority Field.

                              John Fox’s lost four of its first five games before benching QB Kyle Orton in favor of Tim Tebow, who promptly led the Broncos to seven wins in their next eight games. However, this momentum has been halted by a three-game losing slide to close the regular season.

                              Denver lost a 7-3 decision vs. Kansas City as a one-point home ‘chalk’ last week, but it nonetheless clinched the AFC West title thanks to San Diego’s win at Oakland. Tebow had an awful game, completing just 6-of-22 throws for 60 yards and one interception.

                              The former Heisman Trophy winner has been intercepted four times the last two weeks compared to just one TD pass. However, for the season, Tebow has a 12/6 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 660 yards and six TDs.

                              Willis McGahee enjoyed a renaissance campaign, rushing for 1,199 yards, averaging 4.8 YPC. The combination of McGahee, Tebow and an improved offensive line helped Denver lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (164.5).

                              The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the Steelers, 4-4 in their road games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for the Broncos, 5-3 in their home contests.

                              Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

                              **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

                              --Green Bay is the 8/5 favorite to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com. The rest of the website’s future odds look like this: Pats 7/2, Saints 5/1, Ravens 6/1, Steelers 10/1, 49ers 12/1, Giants 20/1, Texans 35/1, Falcons 40/1, Lions 50/1, Broncos 60/1 and Bengals 70/1.

                              --Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top scoring defense, giving up just 14.2 PPG.

                              --Denver owns a 5-2 spread record in seven underdog spots with Tim Tebow as its starter.

                              --The ‘over/under’ for Big Ben’s passing yards is 260 ½ at Sportsbook.com, while Tebow’s tally is 149 ½. Tebow’s totals for carries is 8 ½ and his rushing yards is 47 ½.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • #30
                                Wild Card Preview: Falcons at Giants

                                ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6)

                                at NEW YORK GIANTS (9-7)


                                NFC Playoffs - Wild Card Game
                                Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
                                Line: New York -3, Total: 47.5

                                Two teams that finished the season 3-1 square off at Met Life Stadium when the Giants host the Falcons in an NFC Wild Card game. Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2004 season and New York hasn’t won a home game in the postseason since the 2000 NFC Championship.

                                The Giants already won one must-win game, and they’re looking to finally get some postseason momentum going at home. QB Eli Manning has been awful in two career home playoff starts (0 TD, 5 INT, 31.8 passer rating). The Giants failed to score a touchdown and were outscored a combined 46-11 in these defeats. But the New Jersey weather could be just as troublesome for the Falcons, which haven’t had to play in the elements all year (they haven’t played in a cold-weather city since early October). Both teams have excellent wide receivers, but Atlanta (115 rush YPG) has a decisive edge over New York (89 rush YPG, last in NFL) in the running game. Falcons RB Michael Turner, who has been battling a groin injury, finally looks healthy as he ran over Tampa Bay for 172 yards and two scores on just 17 carries (10.1 YPG) last week. The pick here is underdog ATLANTA, which is 4-1 SU (5-0 ATS) in the past five road meetings with the Giants.

                                The FoxSheets provides a pair of anti-Giants trends that support the Falcons:

                                Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N.Y. GIANTS) - terrible defensive team (>=370 YPG) against an average defensive team (295 to 335 YPG). (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*).

                                Tom Coughlin is 5-16 ATS (23.8%, -12.6 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of N.Y. GIANTS. The average score was N.Y. GIANTS 21.6, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 2*).

                                The Falcons have played four straight games Over the total, and the FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the OVER to hit again.

                                Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (N.Y. GIANTS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. (65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*).

                                QB Matt Ryan has played poorly in his two postseason games (71.2 passer rating, 3 TD, 4 INT), both SU and ATS losses. But he has been on fire since the start of November, completing 62% of his passes for 2,494 yards (277 YPG), 20 TD and just 4 INT. He has been sacked just eight times in these nine games, but New York brings a fierce defensive line that has the majority of the team’s 48 sacks this season (T-3rd in NFL). Jason Pierre-Paul is the team’s top pass rusher with 16.5 sacks this year.

                                Both Falcons starting WRs Roddy White (1,296 rec yds, 8 TD) and rookie Julio Jones (959 rec yds, 8 TD) are capable of torching a suspect Giants pass defense allowing the fourth-most yards in the NFL (255 passing YPG). TE Tony Gonzalez (875 rec yds, 7 TD) has never won a playoff game in his Hall of Fame career (0-4 record) and was held to just one catch for seven yards in last year’s home loss to Green Bay. The G-Men have a below-average run defense that ranks 19th in the league (121 YPG), but Turner has done very little in his playoff career, rushing for 269 yards on 74 carries (3.6 YPC) and three touchdowns in six lifetime postseason games.

                                Manning’s passer rating was just 76.5 this December (7.98 YPA, 6 TD, 6 INT), but he had a tremendous season finale against Dallas, completing 24-of-33 passes for 346 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He has taken just 28 sacks this season, the seventh-fewest amount in the league. Manning has also been clutch in the fourth quarter, setting an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter TD passes and finishing second in the NFL in fourth-quarter passer rating (110.0). WR Victor Cruz continues to play as well as any wideout on the planet, catching six passes for 178 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown. He also had a 99-yard TD reception in Week 16, giving him an absurd 342 yards in his past two games. The other starting WR Hakeem Nicks, appears to be fully healed from his hamstring injury, catching five passes for 76 yards and a score against Dallas.

                                RB Ahmad Bradshaw is another of the walking wounded for New York, has he has battled a foot injury for the good part of this season. The elusive Bradshaw entered this season with a career 4.8 YPC average, but that has dropped to 3.9 YPC this year. Bruising RB Brandon Jacobs was held to 16 yards on seven carries against Dallas last week, but was averaging a whopping 5.6 YPC in his previous four games. Both backs will be certainly be tested by a strong Falcons run defense that ranks sixth in the NFL (97 YPG).
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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