The Bum's NFL Week # 17 Best Bets !

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8)— Philly is eliminated from playoffs; they stayed focused for easy win in Dallas last week, their third straight win (by 16-26-13 points), but they’re just 2-5 at home this year (2-4 as home favorites)- how much do they care about finishing 8-8, on 4-game roll? Redskins lost eight of last ten games; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points- they won last two road games. Home team lost eight of last ten series games; Redskins won four of last six visits here, but lost 20-13 at Philly 20-13 (+1) in first meeting, getting outrushed 192-42, game that snapped Philly’ 4-game skid. Series has been swept seven of last nine years. Five of last six Washington games went over the total.

Buccaneers (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)— If Lions lose at Lambeau, Falcons move up to #5 seed with win and avoid Saints in first round. Atlanta won five of last six series games, with four of five wins by 6 or less points; they lost 16-13 at Tampa (+1.5) in Week 3, getting outrushed 115-30. Would expect more running from Falcons, who ran ball only 15 times with 51 dropbacks in first meeting- they had only one TD in four visits to red zone. Tampa lost last three visits here, by 3-3-6 points, but ’11 Bucs have fallen apart, losing last nine games (0-5 vs spread last five)- they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-6-11-9-6-27-32 points. Atlanta is 5-2 at home, 2-0-2 as home favorite, winning at by 4-14-6-10-27 points, losing only to Packers/Saints. Three of Buccaneers’ last four games went over total.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)— San Francisco needs win here to secure bye in playoffs. 49ers’ +25 turnover ratio is amazing; they’re 5-2 on road, winning by 5-1-6-8-2 points; they’re 10-3 in last thirteen series games, with average total in last nine, 35.4; they’ve won three of last five visits here, winning by 1-1-22 points. SF blanked Rams 26-0 (-13) in first meeting four weeks ago, outrushing St Louis 144-31, outgaining them 389-157. End of line for another dismal Rams’ season (lost last six games (0-5-1 vs spread), 1-3-1 as home dog); if they lose they can still get #1 pick. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten 49er games, 6-2 in last eight St Louis games. Clemens has done his best as #3 QB coming in off street, but he is in a hopeless situation against this hungry, opportunistic defense.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12)— McCown was marked improvement at QB for Bears last week, but they've still lost five games in row (0-4 vs spread the last four). Vikings snapped 6-game skid with win at Washington, but lost Peterson/ Ponder to injury; they’re 1-6 at home, losing their last four by 6-6-3-22 points, allowing 34.4 ppg. Minnesota is 6-4-1 as an underdog, 2-2 at home. Chicago won last four series games, crushing Vikings 39-10 (-3) in Week 6, outrushing them 119-53 and running kick back for TD; home side won seven of last eight series games, with series split in six of last nine years- Bears lost seven of last nine visits to Metrodome. Average total in last six series games is 58.8, 49.3 in last three visits here. Chance for Vikings' mobile QB Webb to audition for #1 job next year

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)— Doubt Rodgers plays much in this game and Lions have playoff game next week, so is the under worth a look, as both clubs look to get this over with quick? Detroit is giddy after clinching first playoff berth in dozen years; they’re on road in playoffs next week, but also haven’t won in Lambeau since ’91, with four of last five losses here by 8+ points- will they try to win here? Will Packers try to win? Green Bay is 11-1 in last dozen series games, winning 27-15 (-6) on Thanksgiving, despite being outrushed 136-53, outgained by 60 yards. Lions wontheir last three games, scoring 34-28-38 points, with 10 TDs on last 30 drives. Six of Detroit’s seven road games went over the total.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)— Brees already has passing record; should the 49ers get out to big lead in their game, Saints could pull starters as they'll have home playoff game next week. Panthers won four of last five games, with all four wins by 8+ points; they’re 5-4 as underdog, 3-3 on road, winning last three away games after losing first four by 7-5-14-14 points. Carolina split its four games in domes. Saints won four of last five series games, winning first meeting 30-27 (-6.5) in Week 5, despite being outrushed 162-101; NO converted 12-17 on 3rd down, passed for 343 yards. Carolina lost last two visits here, 30-20/16-14; three of their last four visits here were decided by 3 or less points. Five of last six Carolina games went over the total.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)— Houston is locked into AFC #3 seed, so this game is meaningless as Texans prep for first playoff game next week; they crushed Tennessee 41-7 (+2.5) in Week 7, their 4th win in last 13 series games, outrushing Titans 222-53, outgaining them 518-148, averaging 12.8 ypa, but that was with Schaub at QB. Houston lost last two games, scored just 16.5 ppg in Yates’ four starts; they’re 5-2 SU at home, 2-2 vs spread as underdog this year. Tennessee is 3-4 on road, losing at Indy in only game as road favorite (2-5 overall as favorite). Titans won six of last nine visits to their old city, with average total in last three, 27.3. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Titan games, 4-1 in last five Texan tilts.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)— Baltimore needs win to clinch division title and 1st-round bye; they’ve lost five of last six visits here, losing 17-7/15-10 in last two visits. Bengals need win to clinch playoff berth- they lost 31-24 (+7) at Baltimore six weeks ago, outgaining Ravens by 110 yards but throwing three picks, setting up two Baltimore TD drives of less than 40 yards. Cincy is 0-2-1 in last three games as underdog after covering first five tries this year; they’re 4-3 at home, with last three home games decided by total of 11 points. Ravens are just 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road favorite- they’ve won five of last six games overall, with three of last four wins by 10+ points. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)— If Ravens won their game, Steelers have playoff game next week, would likely hold Big Ben out of this 4:15 start; if Ravens lose, this game is for home playoff game, so he would be more likely to play. Cleveland lost last five games but covered four of last six; five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points- they covered four of last five as a dog. Pitt won 16 of last 17 series games, going 10-1 here, with four of last six wins by 14+ points- they beat Browns 14-3 (-14) in Week 14 Thursday nighter despite two red zone turnovers, outrushing Cleveland 147-98, while averaging 10.8 ypa. Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Cleveland games, 5-0-1 in Steelers’ last six.

Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11)— If Indy loses, they get #1 pick in draft and have big decision to make, but they’ve won last two games after 0-13 start to put that option in question, allowing two TDs on 25 drives. Colts are 3-4 as road underdog but covered last two away games- they’ve lost road games by 27-7-10-55-17-7-14 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as favorites this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 2-5-27 points- they won first meeting 17-3 at Indy, outrushing Colts 141-84, holding Painter to 3.8 ypa, but Orlovsky has been big step up at QB for Indy, and Jax is just 1-5 since that win. Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars’ last four games, 2-6 in Indy’s last eight. Indianapolis covered its last four games overall.

Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10)— How will Jets react to losing local showdown with Giants last week, with playoff berth likely on line? Gang Green is 0-6 when they score 21 or less points. Miami covered seven of last eight games, winning three of last four at home, allowing 14.3 ppg- they’re 5-3 in last eight games after 0-7 start, as Moore has proven to be competent QB; Dolphins are 3-1 as favorite this year- all five of their wins are by 7+ points. Visitors won six of last eight series games, but Fish (+7) lost 24-6 at Swamp in Week 6, converting just 2-13 on 3rd down, and kicking two FGs on three red zone drives. Jets won four of last five visits here, with average total in last four, 49.8. Three of last four Miami games, four of last five Jet games went over total.

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (12-3)— Pats rallied from down 17-0 at half to win last week and stay atop AFC; they need win here to clinch home field thru AFC playoffs. Buffalo (+7.5) upset New England 34-31 in Week 3, picking Brady off four times while ending 15-game series skid; they’ve lost last 10 visits here (25-24/38-30 last two years) with four of last six losses here by 8 or less points. Bills snapped 7-game skid by beating Denver last week; they’re 2-3-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4-27 points. Patriots allowed 20+ points in last five games; they’re 3-4 as home favorite, covering one of last five, with home wins by 14-9-4-31-73 points. Six of last even New England games went over the total.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)— San Diego won three of last four games but is 2-5 on road, laying major egg in Detroit last week with season on line; their only road wins are over Orton-led Broncos and dismal Jaguars but they can KO Raiders from playoffs with win here. Oakland can make playoffs with win and if Denver loses at home to Orton-led Chiefs. Raiders (+7) won 34-27 at San Diego in Week 10, third straight series win, running ball for 191 yards while averaging 13.5 ypa- this series has been swept the last seven years, as San Diego won six of last seven visits here. Oakland lost three of last four games, is 3-4 at home—five of their last six games went over the total, as have six of seven Charger road games.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Broncos (8-7)— Denver clinches unlikely division title with win here, but QB they cut in November (Orton) starts against them; Broncos (+3) won 17-10 at Arrowhead in Week 10, running ball for 244 yards while Tebow was just 2-8 passing the whole day, as visitor won for just 4th time in last 18 series games. Chiefs lost nine of last 10 visits here, with eight losses by 7+ points- average total in their last four visits here is 58.8. Broncos allowed 41-40 points in losing last two games; they’re 3-4 at home, with wins by 2-4-3 points- they’re 1-3 as a favorite this year, 0-3 at home. Nine of Chiefs’ last ten games stayed under total; three of last four Denver game went over. No scoreboard watching here; Broncos win and they’re in.

Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8)— Both teams were eliminated with streak-ending losses last week; Seattle is 5-2 in last seven games, covering six of last eight- they’re 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog, winning last two away games, at St Louis/Chicago. Arizona won six of last eight games, winning last four home games- they were down 23-0 in 4th quarter at Cincy last week but wide open WR fell down on last play, or they would’ve tied game in last minute. Cardinals are 2-2 as favorite this year- they lost 13-10 (-3) at Seattle in Week 3, second of six straight Arizona losses. Four of last five Seattle games went over; under is 5-1-2 in last eight Arizona games. No playoff berths on line here, just a divisional rivalry.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)—NFC East title on line here in game moved to primetime for NBC; Giants (+3.5) won wild 37-34 game in JerryWorld three weeks ago, rallying back late from down 10, their sixth win in last eight series games, with average total in last five meetings, 63.8. Season series was split four of last six years; Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits here. Manning passed for 400 yards (8.5 ypa) in earlier game, but Romo threw for 9.8 ypa in wild affair. Dallas is 3-4 on road, with three of seven games going into OT- they started season here with 27-24 loss to Jets. Pokes are 2-2 as underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-27-6 points. Giants are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as favorite. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.

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Houston Texans Tangle With Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans are a week away from hosting their very first playoff game in franchise history. Before heading to the postseason though, there is one more task to tend to when they take on the Tennessee Titans at Reliant Stadium in Week 17.

Kickoff from Houston is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET) this Sunday, and regional television coverage is set for CBS.

The Texans (10-5 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) have been relatively quiet about their game plan in this one, but it sounds like they are going to go all out to end their two-game skid. Houston knows that it missed out on a big time opportunity to claim the top seed in the AFC, something that would be been on the line had it won its last two games, and really needs to get the offense back on track after two very suspect weeks under the direction of rookie TJ Yates.

Yates has thrown for 902 yards and three TDs against three picks in his four and a half games under center for the Texans. In that stretch though, the team hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game, and has only averaged 14.7 points per game (if you include the scoreless second half in which Yates played against the Jacksonville Jaguars).

Andre Johnson has battled hamstring injuries all season long, and he is hoping to be back in the fold for this one to help Yates out. But considering the fact that this game really doesn't mean anything to the Texans, it's hard to see him taking all that many reps.

One man that will be back in the fold this week is defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who has missed the last two games following surgery.

Ben Tate hasn't done much in recent weeks, but if Arian Foster gets some reps off on Sunday, the former Auburn Tiger will have a shot to become a 1,000-yard back just like Foster. Tate has 845 yards on the ground this season.

Tennessee (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) knows it needs a win and a heck of a lot of help to get into the postseason. The Titans need the Cincinnati Bengals and either the New York Jets, or one of the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders, to drop on Sunday to make the postseason. If the chips fall just right, Tennessee will be playing right back here at Reliant Stadium against the Texans next week.

The Titans really haven't played their best football of late either. They had to survive a vicious challenge last week from the lowly Jaguars, and were beaten by two TDs against the then 0-13 Indianapolis Colts the week before.

The pressure is going to be on Matt Hasselbeck. He only went 14-of-30 for 104 yards with a TD and two INTs when these two teams played for the first time, and the last of those interceptions was returned 38 yards for a TD.

The 41-7 win for Houston on October 23 marked the third straight game between these two in which the final margin of victory was at least two TDs. The underdog has thrived as well, going 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings of these AFC South rivals.

With high temperatures only reaching in the 60s this weekend in Houston, the roof is likely to be open at Reliant Stadium on Sunday. There is a minimal chance for rain, but the shadows could become a factor in the second half, especially for deep passes and in the kicking game.

The Titans are favored by a field goal, and the total has dropped slightly from 40½ earlier in the week to 40 as of Friday afternoon.

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Chargers Look To Ruin Playoff Hopes For Oakland Raiders

There are still plenty of playoff scenarios in the AFC as we head into the last weekend of regular-season action.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, none involve them, which is why we might be looking at the end of an era on Sunday for the Bolts. More on that in a moment.

The schedule tells us that San Diego (7-8 straight up, 5-10 against the spread) travels to Oakland (8-7 SU, 10-5 ATS) on Sunday in the renewal of one of the AFC’s hottest rivalries that dates back to the earliest days of the old AFL. Kickoff time will be at 4:15 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by CBS. Marv (“Yessss!”) Albert and former Raiders Super Bowl QB Rich Gannon will be on hand to describe the action.

A reference to the Don Best odds screen notes that the Raiders are listed as 3-point favorites at most Las Vegas wagering emporiums, with the total floating between 47 and 48.

The immediate consequences of this game and others on Sunday have to do with determining the field for the upcoming playoffs, which commence next week. And in that regard, the Raiders are still very much in the mix. They’ll need to win to keep their hopes alive; thereafter, a loss by either the Broncos or Bengals (both playing at the same time) gets Oakland into the postseason.

The differences would be that the Raiders would qualify as AFC West champs and the fourth seed in the playoffs should they win and Denver lose; that combination would also give Oakland a home game in the wild card round next weekend. Should the Broncos win but Cincinnati lose, coupled with a Raiders win, then Oakland would enter the playoffs as a wild card. The Silver & Black would then be seeded sixth and forced on the road for any remaining playoff games, starting with the wild card round next week and a game at Houston, already locked into the number three AFC seed.

Oakland currently sits ahead of Tennessee and the Jets in any tiebreaker procedures, and would also rate above Cincy should the Bengals lose and Oakland win. If the Raiders win the West instead, they would host either the Steelers or Ravens in wild card weekend action.

So, there’s lots to play for in Oakland this week. But the Raiders have no chance to advance unless they win, which they’ve done rather consistently vs. the Bolts over the past two seasons, winning the last three meetings (as an underdog each time, by the way).

The last encounter was a Thursday night affair back on November 10 at Qualcomm Stadium, when the Raiders gashed the San Diego defense for 191 rush yards and 299 more via QB Carson Palmer and the aerial route. It was also a huge night for punishing Raider RB Michael Bush, who provided more than adequate relief for the sidelined Darren McFadden by plowing for 157 rush yards. Bush added three catches for 85 yards while accounting for a whopping 242 yards of total offense in Oakland’s 24-17 win. Wideout Denarius Moore also made a pair of circus catches for TDs.

The Raiders’ efforts, however, have not been consistent, especially those of Palmer who enjoyed one of his better games since being acquired in October during the first meeting but has been mostly erratic otherwise, reflected in his 15 picks since his first game for Oakland on October 23 vs. the Chiefs.

Expect Oakland to try to implement the same formula in the rematch, looking to establish the punishing Bush to draw the Charger safeties forward, then strike for the kill with the deep pass. Palmer did have three completions of 40-plus yards in the first meeting.

A positive development lately for the Raiders has been the emergence of former top draft pick and ex-Maryland Terrapin WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, once considered a bust but now emerging as a reliable receiving component. His 55 catches lead all Oakland receivers, and his 53-yard catch from Palmer in overtime last week at Arrowhead set up PK Sebastian Janikowski’s game-winning field goal.

As for San Diego, there’s nothing to lose or gain this week after postseason hopes were dashed in last Saturday’s brutal 38-10 loss at Detroit. It was, however, only the third loss among QB Philip Rivers’ 26 December starts in his career. This matchup with the Raiders will technically not add or subtract from that tally as it is being played in January, though the point is clear; Rivers is usually better as the season comes to a conclusion.

To improve upon results of the first meeting, as well as both losses to Oakland a year ago, the Bolts are likely going to have to establish RB Ryan Mathews on the ground. The Raiders are leaky against the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, although Charger backs only had 14 carries in the first meeting. San Diego’s offensive line has been a patchwork one since midseason, making it even more difficult to establish the run.

And without a reliable infantry diversion, Rivers has been consistently forcing the ball into coverages all season, partly responsible for his 19 interceptions. All likely to be etched into coach Norv Turner’s epitaph in San Diego, which looks to be another storyline developing this week.

Indeed, it seems time to begin looking at Turner’s San Diego career in retrospect. A five-season era of highs and lows appears likely to come to a close, with most reports suggesting that the Spanos’ are ready to hit the eject button on Turner (and perhaps longtime GM A.J. Smith as well) as soon as the regular season concludes. Already names such as Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher are being mentioned as possible replacements.

Turner’s years will be recalled mostly in frustration by Chargers fans who lamented at the team’s slow starts almost each of Turner’s seasons that required the Bolts to catch fire down the stretch to make the playoffs. Ironically, San Diego didn’t start quite as slowly this season as it had most of the previous Turner years. But missing the postseason in back-to-back terms with the rest of the AFC West hardly in dominant form will likely end the Turner regime, one that many Bolts fans believe was a waste of five seasons when a more involved coach could have perhaps steered San Diego to one or two Super Bowl appearances.

Instead, the Turner era likely will be recalled for its frustrations, perhaps summed up best in the bitter 17-14 playoff loss to the 8½-point underdog Jets two years ago in what will undoubtedly go down as Norv’s last (and most frustrating) playoff game as San Diego coach. The Bolts had home-field edge throughout the 2009 playoffs and missed a golden opportunity to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Bobby Ross’ 1994 Chargers turned the trick.

As for the introverted Norv, he likely surfaces somewhere next year as an offensive coordinator, a position in which many feel he is best qualified. Perhaps even at Dallas, where Turner once enjoyed great success in that role on Jimmy Johnson’s staffs. As for GM A.J. Smith, there are already rumors that he could surface in St. Louis, perhaps in tandem with ex-Titan coach Jeff Fisher, if the Rams clean house as expected.

And, to paraphrase Richard Nixon, Chargers fans won’t have Norv Turner to kick around anymore after Sunday.

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NFC West Title On Line For Denver Broncos

Let’s rewind four months. What would the masses have told us if we said that the San Diego Chargers would be out of the AFC West race and playoff picture by the last week of the season? Or that the Denver Broncos would hold the pole position to win the division going into the final weekend, and that Tim Tebow would be the QB leading the Broncos to the brink of the postseason? And, oh yes, how about that Denver’s final week opponent Kansas City would be led at QB by none other than Kyle Orton, who was Denver’s starter until mid-October?

Anyone who would have accepted all of the above as true would have probably listened to a sales pitch to sell our oceanfront property in Phoenix, too. But sometimes the NFL can be a bit bizarre.

So it is for the final week of the season that the team many expected to be propping up the rest of the AFC West, the Broncos, are in fact the only one to control their playoff destiny in the final week. Specifics for Week 17 action have Denver (8-7 straight up, 7-8 against the spread) hosting Kansas City (6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Sport Authority Field at Mile High on Sunday. Kickoff time is at 4:15 p.m. (ET), and CBS must think the game is pretty important if sending its top announcing team, Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, to the Mile High City.

A check of the Don Best odds screen shows the Broncos as 3-point favorites at the vast majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets, although a few stray 3½ prices are floating around town. The total is sitting solidly on 37.

The stakes are pretty simple for Denver; win and the AFC West title belongs to the Broncos.

Forgive Denver fans, however, for being a bit squeamish, and not only about the white-knuckle ride their Broncos have put them through in the 2011 campaign. But last days of the regular season and Denver chances to make the playoffs haven’t gone too well in recent years.

The Broncos have similarly had opportunities three times since 2006 to qualify for a postseason berth on the final day, but failed on each occasion. Five years ago, the Broncos looked a solid bet for an AFC wild card spot and only had to beat the lowly 49ers on the final Sunday to qualify. But with then-rookie Jay Cutler at QB, the 10-point favorite Broncos lost 26-23 in overtime to miss the postseason.

Again in 2008, Denver had a chance to win the AFC West and make the playoffs on the final weekend, but was crushed by San Diego, 52-21, which put paid those hopes and also ended the career of Mike Shanahan as Bronco coach in the process. Indeed, Denver had chances the last three weeks of the ’08 campaign to sew up a playoff berth before visiting the Chargers, but couldn’t.

Then in 2009, Josh McDaniels’ first Denver team completed an amazing late-season collapse and let a potential wild card berth slip through is fingers again when getting clobbered by the Chiefs, 42-22, on the last day of the regular season.

It feels like a bit of deja vu in Denver, too, as the Broncos might be channeling 2008, losing their last two entering the finale.

These teams met back on November 13 at Arrowhead in a game in which Tim Tebow completed all of two passes for the Broncos, although one of those went for a 56-yard TD to Eric Decker. Denver’s zone read option, however, helped account for 244 rush yards in that 17-10 win, with Lance Ball blasting out 96 yards in the process.

Since that game, the Chiefs have changed head coaches, with Todd Haley dismissed two weeks ago and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel promoted to an interim position for the rest of the season. Should Crennel steer the Chiefs to a win on Sunday, many believe he could be in line to get the K.C. top spot on a permanent basis, given that he would own wins over the Packers and Broncos in two of his three games in charge.

But Crennel’s stop unit failed to execute basic assignment defense principles against the option in the first meeting and will be tasked to improve upon those fundamentals or risk the same fate in the rematch.

Of course, intriguing storylines are everywhere in this matchup, none more so than the Orton-returns-to-Denver angle. How ironic that after having started the fist five games of the season at QB for the Broncos, Orton is now on the opposite sideline in the finale with a chance to deny Denver a playoff berth.

Orton resurfaced two weeks ago for the Chiefs after injuring his index finger December 4 at Chicago (another of his former employers) in what was his first snap in K.C. uniform. True to form, however, Orton (6-21 in his last 27 games as a Denver starter after winning his first six out of the chute in 2009) regressed last week vs. the Raiders, tossing two picks after a mistake-free outing in the shock 19-14 win over Green Bay the previous week.

For Orton to have a chance to gain revenge on his old team, the Chiefs are likely going to have to avoid the sort of third-and-long situations that would expose Orton to the aggressive Bronco pass rush that has generated 40 sacks this season. Kansas City has mostly kept the immobile ex-Purdue QB out of harm’s way the past two weeks in which he hasn’t been sacked; remember, however, that the forward wall did allow 33 sacks in the previous 13 games, including four to the Broncos in the November 13 game at Arrowhead.

As for Tebow, he enters off of his roughest outing to date, although a late stat change has changed one of his interceptions at Buffalo into a fumble instead. For the record, Tebow is now credited with only three picks last week against the Bills, but it was ugly nonetheless in a 40-14 blowout loss.

Denver’s collapse at Orchard Park was not all Tebow’s doing. The defense and special teams share in the culpability, especially the latter after allowing Buffalo’s Leodis McKelvin to return a punt 80 yards for a TD.

Moreover, the Broncos are suffering through a spate of injuries defensively, especially in a patchwork secondary that has been worked over by New England’s Tom Brady and Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick the past two weeks. The availablility of veteran FS Brian Dawkins is up in the air with a lingering pinched nerve in his neck. Other safeties David Bruton and Quinton Carter are also nursing injury, with the likelihood that UCLA rookie Rahim Moore will probably be in the starting lineup somewhere on Sunday.

There is one last kicker regarding the various playoff scenarios involving this game; Denver could still lose and make the playoffs as AFC West champ should the Raiders fall at the same time vs. San Diego. Somehow, in this wacky 2011 season and in this wacky AFC West, that would seem rather appropriate.

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Seattle Seahawks And Cardinals Clash In Arizona
By: Matty Simo | Friday, December 30, 2011 Jan 01, 2012 Opener Current Score
331 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS + 41u15
4:15pm ET
332 ARIZONA CARDINALS 3 3-05
* Don Best Consensus Line Click here now for a FREE TRIAL of the Don Best Odds Screen
The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals both had a slim chance of making the playoffs heading into Week 16. But with each of them coming off a loss, the only things left to play for in the regular-season finale on Sunday include a shot at second place in the NFC West and an opportunity to avoid finishing with a losing record going into next year.

The Seahawks (7-8) had won five of six before losing 19-17 at home to the San Francisco 49ers, who clinched the division title in Week 13. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (7-8) had won six of seven before a late rally fell short in a 23-16 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Seattle and Arizona will now meet at the University of Phoenix Stadium to close out the season and begin 2012 sharing a common goal of winning the NFC West next season.

Game time is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The Cardinals are 3-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 41.

Arizona trailed the Bengals 23-0 in the fourth quarter last Saturday and nearly completed a miraculous comeback. However, Cardinals wide receiver Early Doucet tripped near the goal line and could not grab what would have been the game-tying touchdown in the final minutes. Arizona quarterback John Skelton did all he could to try to bring his team back, but he fell to 5-2 as a starter in place of Kevin Kolb, who may sit out again with a concussion.

Kolb was expected to give the Cardinals a big boost this season after he was acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, and he was seen by some experts as the missing link to a potential division title. The Seahawks were also rumored to be interested in him, but they settled on Tavaris Jackson instead.

Jackson has enjoyed a career year in Seattle, completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,869 yards with 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. More importantly though, he has played in 14 games compared to just nine for Kolb in Arizona.

The sixth-year pro out of Alabama State did have the benefit having Marshawn Lynch in the Seahawks backfield. Lynch has run for a career-high 1,118 yards this season and scored a touchdown in 11 straight games, plus became the first player to score a rushing touchdown against the vaunted San Francisco run defense last week despite the loss.

The Seahawks have won the last three meetings with the Cardinals both straight-up and against the spread. They are also 8-2 in their past 10 games against NFC opponents and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings with the ‘over’ cashing in the last five played at Arizona. The ‘over’ is also 4-1 in Seattle’s past five overall and 6-2-1 in the last nine home games for the Cardinals.

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SNF - Cowboys at Giants

December 31, 2011

The final game of the NFL regular season will decide the NFC East champion as the Giants welcome in the Cowboys to Met Life Stadium. New York forced this pseudo-division title game with a victory last week, while Dallas was humbled at home by Philadelphia. However, the biggest question mark for the Cowboys is if their starting quarterback will be effective after getting injured last week.

Tony Romo left last Saturday's loss to the Eagles after his right hand collided with the helmet of Philadelphia's Jason Babin. Romo didn't return as the Cowboys fell, 20-7 as one-point home favorites, while the Eagles pulled off the season sweep. Philadelphia outscored Dallas, 54-14 in the two victories, dropping the Cowboys to 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS inside division play this season.

The erratic Giants stayed alive with a 29-14 blowout of the rival Jets last Saturday, despite only nine completions from quarterback Eli Manning. One of those nine connections was a game-changing pass as Manning hit Victor Cruz for a 99-yard score to give the Giants a 10-7 lead. Big Blue outscored the Jets, 19-7 the rest of the way for their eighth win of the season, while covering their third straight game in the underdog role.

The last time these two teams hooked up at Cowboys Stadium in Week 14, the Giants rallied for a 37-34 triumph as 4 ½-point away 'dogs. New York overcame a late 12-point deficit with two touchdowns in the final 3:14, including a one-yard touchdown run by Brandon Jacobs to cap the comeback. Both quarterbacks performed well as Manning threw for 400 yards, while Romo tossed four touchdown passes. The Cowboys looked to force overtime, but the game-tying field goal in the final seconds was blocked.

Dallas hasn't been a bettor's dream the last two months by compiling a 2-7 ATS record, including a 2-6 ATS mark as a favorite in this span. However, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS as an underdog, but Jason Garrett's team has lost to the Jets, Patriots, and Eagles in the 'dog role. What make this more frustrating for Dallas money-line players in those defeats are the fourth-quarter leads blown in the setbacks at New York and New England.

The Giants are pointspread poison when it comes to backing them as a favorite, putting together a 2-5-1 ATS ledger when laying points this season. Since covering in a Week 2 win over St. Louis, New York is 0-3-1 ATS when laying points at Met Life Stadium, including two division losses to Washington and Philadelphia. In fact, the Giants haven't won a home game since before Halloween against the Dolphins in Week 8, a 20-17 victory as nine-point 'chalk.'

From a totals perspective, the Cowboys are 9-6 to the 'under,' while the Giants have gone 8-6-1 to the 'over.' Dallas has cashed the 'under' in three of the previous four road contests, including a 31-15 victory at Tampa Bay with the total of 47. The Giants have seen the 'under' hit in three of the last four home games, while scoring 10 points in each of the losses to the Redskins and Eagles.

New York is listed as three-point favorites, while the total is set at 47. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's at kickoff, while there is a 40% chance of rain. The game will kick off at 8:20 PM EST and can be seen nationally on NBC.

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: NFL Week 17 betting

With Week 17 upon us, we took a look at how all 32 teams have fared both ATS and Over/Under in their season finales over the last eight seasons (2003-2010). We also broke things down to find the best and worst home teams and road teams ATS and the teams with the highest Over and Under percentages at home and on the road in this sample. Here is how they stack up ATS:
ATS Records in Week 17 (2003-2010)
Team ATS Pct.
Arizona 6-2 75%
New England 6-2 75%
Pittsburgh 6-2 75%
Carolina 5-2 71%
Green Bay 5-2 71%
Washington 4-2 67%
Atlanta 5-3 63%
Cleveland 5-3 63%
Detroit 5-3 63%
Houston 5-3 63%
Kansas City 5-3 63%
New York Giants 5-3 63%
New York Jets 5-3 63%
San Diego 4-3 57%
Seattle 4-3 57%
San Francisco 4-3 57%
Cincinnati 4-4 50%
Denver 4-4 50%
Miami 4-4 50%
Philadelphia 4-4 50%
St. Louis 4-4 50%
Tennessee 4-4 50%
Baltimore 3-5 38%
Chicago 3-5 38%
Oakland 3-5 38%
New Orleans 2-5 29%
Buffalo 2-6 25%
Jacksonville 2-6 25%
Minnesota 2-6 25%
Tampa Bay 2-6 25%
Dallas 1-7 13%
Indianapolis 1-7 13%

Best Home ATS Records (min. 2 games)
Team ATS Pct.
Arizona 4-1 80%
Cleveland 3-1 75%
Kansas City 3-1 75%
New England 3-1 75%
Houston 5-2 71%
All except Kansas City are home in Week 17.

Worst Home ATS Records (min. 2 games)
Team ATS Pct.
Miami 0-3 0%
Indianapolis 1-4 20%
Tampa Bay 1-4 20%
Oakland 1-3 25%
Miami and Oakland are home in Week 17.

Best Road ATS Records (min. 2 games)
Team ATS Pct.
Green Bay 3-0 100%
Pittsburgh 5-1 83%
Carolina 4-1 80%
Miami 4-1 80%
New England 3-1 75%
Green Bay and Carolina are on the road in Week 17.

Worst Road ATS Records (min. 2 games)
Team ATS Pct.
Dallas 0-5 0%
Minnesota 0-4 0%
Indianapolis 0-3 0%
Baltimore 0-2 0%
Jacksonville 1-6 14%
Dallas, Indianapolis and Baltimore are on the road in Week 17.


TOTALS in Week 17 (2003-2010)
Here is how all 32 teams have fared vs. the total in season finales over the last eight seasons:
Team O-U Pct. Over
Miami 7-1 88%
Denver 6-2 75%
Detroit 6-2 75%
New York Giants 6-2 75%
Carolina 5-2 71%
Chicago 5-3 63%
Houston 5-3 63%
Jacksonville 5-3 63%
New England 5-3 63%
New York Jets 5-3 63%
Pittsburgh 5-3 63%
San Diego 5-3 63%
St. Louis 5-3 63%
Atlanta 4-3 57%
Arizona 4-4 50%
Buffalo 4-4 50%
Minnesota 4-4 50%
New Orleans 4-4 50%
San Francisco 4-4 50%
Tampa Bay 4-4 50%
Washington 4-4 50%
Cincinnati 3-5 38%
Dallas 3-5 38%
Green Bay 3-5 38%
Indianapolis 3-5 38%
Oakland 3-5 38%
Philadelphia 3-5 38%
Seattle 3-5 38%
Tennessee 3-5 38%
Baltimore 2-6 25%
Cleveland 2-6 25%
Kansas City 2-6 25%


Highest Home OVER Pct. (min. 2 games)
Team O-U Pct. Over
Denver 5-0 100%
Miami 3-0 100%
New York Giants 3-0 100%
Atlanta 3-1 75%
Minnesota 3-1 75%
San Francisco 3-1 75%
All except San Francisco are home in Week 17.

Highest Home UNDER Pct. (min. 2 games)
Team U-O Pct. Under
Cincinnati 3-0 100%
Carolina 2-0 100%
Indianapolis 4-1 80%
Washington 4-1 80%
Kansas City 3-1 75%
Only Cincinnati is home in Week 17.

Highest Road OVER Pct. (min. 2 games)
Team O-U Pct. Over
Carolina 5-0 100%
New York Jets 3-0 100%
Washington 3-0 100%
San Diego 2-0 100%
Detroit 4-1 80%
Miami 4-1 80%
All except Miami are on the road in Week 17.

Highest Road UNDER Pct. (min. 2 games)
Team U-O Pct. Under
Cleveland 4-0 100%
Baltimore 2-0 100%
Philadelphia 2-0 100%
Tennessee 4-1 80%
Baltimore and Tennessee are on the road in Week 17.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, January 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +9 500
Philadelphia - Over 45.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Miami -3 500
Miami - Over 39 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -7 500
New Orleans - Over 54.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay +4.5 500
Green Bay - Over 41 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -10.5 500
St. Louis - Under 35.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +3.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 37.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET New England -10.5 500 POD
New England - Over 49.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -1 500
Houston - Over 39 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1.5 500
Minnesota - Under 41 500

Pittsburgh - 4:15 PM ET Pittsburgh -6.5 500
Cleveland - Over 33.5 500

Baltimore - 4:15 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500
Cincinnati - Under 38 500

Tampa Bay - 4:15 PM ET Tampa Bay +10 500
Atlanta - Over 45.5 500

Kansas City - 4:15 PM ET Kansas City +3 500 REVENGE
Denver - Under 37.5 500

San Diego - 4:15 PM ET San Diego +3 500
Oakland - Over 48.5 500

Seattle - 4:15 PM ET Seattle +3 500
Arizona - Under 40.5 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 47.5 500 Total of the Day

[Kaptain]

gl today BUM......thanks for all the contributions in 2011, and may you have a great 2012

[LeRoy]

GL Bum nice job with the write ups as usual

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks LeRoy.....just gathering as much of a advantage for all of us.......Happy New Year !

[StarDust Bum]

If you are going to be in Hawaii over the New Year holiday, you may want to learn this phrase: Hau’oli Makahiki Hou. It means Happy New Year and it is pronounced as follows:

Hau’oli — “how-oh-lee”

Makahiki — ”ma-ka-hee-key”

Hou — “ho”

As 2012 nears, I’d like to be among the first to wish you Hau ‘oli Makahiki Hou!



Originally posted at: How to Say Happy New Year in Hawaiian How to Say Happy New Year in Hawaiian

[BadgerJoe]

Thanks Bum for all your contributions to the forum.

[StarDust Bum]

Happy New Years Badger Joe...Your welcome...more then happy to get as much of a edge over the house.......

[StarDust Bum]

Week 17 NFL Trends & Angles

We have now reached Week 17, and since this is the final week of the regular season, we advise being very carful with how you use the trends and angles in this column or any other approach you use for that matter, as many games this week will have a preseason feel with many teams that are locked into the playoffs really having nothing to play for.
Back to the matter at hand, remember last week when there was a conflict at the top of our angles, as the Seattle Seahawks fell into a system that said to fade road favorites after their 11th win of the season (in this case the 49ers) while the Niners fit the Monday Night Magic angle? Well, case solved as the game ended in a Push with San Francisco winning by two points!

The Monday Night Magic angle turns up for the sixth straight week this week after the New Orleans Saints' big win in Drew Brees' record breaking performance Monday night, but keep our aforementioned advice in mind as the Saints may sit some regulars.
We will lead off with a nice road underdog angle this week that should not be hindered by favored teams sitting players.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (168-107-7, 61.1% ATS since 2002): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, Bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. There are three qualifying plays for this angle for Week 17: Chicago +1, San Diego +3 and Tampa Bay +12

Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (44-23-1, 65.7% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. The one push on the ATS record of this angle came last week, and that came after the trend won each of the previous four weeks. It gets one last chance this season with the Saints -9 vs. Carolina, but be careful as New Orleans may rest regulars.

Play against any road favorite after it has won its 11th game of the season (56-27-1, 67.5% ATS since 1989): Teams that have won 11 games are more often than not playoff teams that do not need to run up scores late in the year, and as you can see fading these teams as road chalk has been like a gold mine. This angle is still 2-0-1 ATS this season, as the Packers failed to cover at the Giants and at Kansas City (losing outright) after getting Win #11 and the 49eers pushed last week. This is a very dangerous angle to play this week, as all three qualifiers are facing teams with something to play for. For the record though, two of the qualifiers are the Rams +10½ vs. San Francisco and the Bengals +1 vs. Baltimore. The third qualifiers once the line comes out will be the Cleveland Browns hosting Pittsburgh.

Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (56-37, 60.2% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle went a perfect 2-0 when it last turned up in Week 15 and it has two qualifiers in Week 17 that may actually benefit for the favorites resting players, those being the Carolina Panthers +9 at New Orleans and the Buffalo Bills +11 at New England.

Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-68-6, 59.8% ATS since 2002): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of teams not liking to be embarrassed and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. There are two qualifiers in this final week of the regular season: San Diego +3 and Denver -3½.

Play against any home favorite coming off of two or more road losses (55-36-2, 60.4% ATS since 2002): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses don't enjoy as much of a home field advantage as they normally do when they finally do return home, and this becomes more true as it gets later in the season, when those consecutive losses affect a team's playoff chances. As a case in point, while this angle is an already excellent 60.4 percent over all games since 2002, it has gone lights out during the month of December over this same span, going 22-10, 68.8 percent after a perfect 2-0 week in Week 13, which was the last time the angle had a play! Well, it has one for Week 17, but it is a dangerous one: the Indianapolis Colts +3½ at Jacksonville. Will the Colts "Suck for Luck"?

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (70-48-5, 59.5% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or not the team is now home (32-24-4 ATS) or away (38-24-1 ATS). There is one qualifying play for this week: Tampa Bay +12 on the road.