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**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:07 PM

Brees, Newton Square Off In Saints, Panthers Tilt

Fresh off of his record-setting performance on Monday Night Football, Drew Brees will try to lead the New Orleans Saints to a win Sunday at home against the Carolina Panthers.

The regular season finale for both clubs starts at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX. New Orleans is currently a 9½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

Heading into Week 17, the New Orleans Saints have the same record as the San Francisco 49ers, and the 49ers hold the tiebreaker with a superior conference record. The Saints must win this week and St. Louis must upset San Francisco for New Orleans to earn the NFC No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.

Considering that the Saints are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home this season and that they lost last year in the playoffs travelling cross-country to Seattle, they have plenty to play for this week in hopes of making San Francisco come to them in the second round if that matchup transpires.

New Orleans (12-3) is arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now. With Monday night’s demolition of the Atlanta Falcons, the Saints clinched the NFC South and improved to 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games. Four of their last five wins have been by at least 14 points.

While Brees would quickly defer attention to his teammates and winning the division, and still having work to do to win the Super Bowl, it is hard to ignore history in the making. With 307 yards passing against Atlanta on Monday, Drew Brees passed Dan Marino’s single-season record for most passing yards in a season (5,084).

Brees has now thrown for 5,087 yards and 41 touchdowns with just 13 interceptions, and with something to play for this week, he’ll be adding to those totals.

Carolina (6-9) has been playing some great football down the stretch, so don’t expect the Panthers to roll over without a fight. The Panthers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games, averaging 32.8 points per contest over that stretch.

Cam Newton has had a record-setting season of his own. Newton broke Peyton Manning’s rookie record for most passing yards in a single season by a rookie last week with 3,893, and also broke the all-time single season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback earlier this season with 14. New Orleans is too strong on offense, especially at home, to slow down; if Carolina is going to keep this game close, it will have to be on the arms and legs of Newton.

The Panthers have shown a good amount of fight against New Orleans in recent years. Carolina is 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against the Saints, including a cover as a 6½-point underdog in a 30-27 loss in the last meeting between these two teams this year.

Both New Orleans and Carolina have trended towards the ‘over’ in totals betting this year as Carolina is 10-5 on the ‘over’ and New Orleans is 8-7. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Carolina’s last six games and in four of New Orleans’ last six games at home.

Fireworks are expected this week as the total is currently set at 55; the highest total on the board.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:10 PM

Books take Holiday Cash

December 26, 2011

All the Las Vegas sports books wanted for Christmas was a winning day and sure enough, Santa Claus obliged!
And why not?

After determining whether the books had been naughty or nice to the public this season, there was an overwhelming feeling throughout the North Pole that they deserved a winning day in the final pro football week of 2011. Last Saturday, the books had eight underdogs gift wrapped to help give them one of the few winning NFL weeks of the season.

However, the timing of the games falling on Christmas Eve hurt the handle.

"Handle was down a little from last season," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "This was one of the first pro football weeks where numbers were down from the same weekend of the previous year."

Usually there's a mad rush to the bet windows on holidays in the same manner that occurs at the malls, but the rush never came. Action was down at most books by 10 to 15 percent from the previous year estimated, but you won't find any of the books complaining. This was exactly what they needed in attempt to close 2011 out strong.

Helping the cause was four outright underdog winners on Saturday, in addition to having the Colts win outright on Thursday night as six-point home underdogs to the Texans. The sports books also had a couple gift back door covers from the Dolphins and Browns too.

The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites last week and were quickly bet down to -9.5, which is where the number stayed most of the week. On Saturday morning, sharp money was buying all they could on the Dolphins and within a half hour, the line had moved 2.5-points down to Patriots -7.

The sports books were in a position where they wanted to beat the sharp money, but the risk from all the public money on the Patriots far exceeded that money. The Dolphins jumped out to a 17-0 half-time lead, but before we could anticipate an upset, New England had tied the game and then eventually took a 27-17 lead. With less than 2 minutes remaining, the Dolphins scored a back-door touchdown off an 80-yard drive to cover the spread.

The Ravens had opened as 13.5-point home favorites against the Browns and by kickoff, the spread was -11. Just like the Patriots game sharp money was on the ‘dog while most of the public was on the Ravens. Baltimore jumped out to a 20-0 lead before Cleveland marched back with 14 unanswered points to get the double back-door cover.

Things got even better for the books when quarterback Tim Tebow and the Broncos imploded in the fourth-quarter at Buffalo. Denver was a 3-point road favorite against the Bills, who were in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. Public money found them siding with the Broncos at a 9-to-5 ratio in ticket counts, but the Bills steamrolled the Broncos, 40-14. Other than sharp money, the sport books were rolling with positive decisions throughout the early games. The streak continued in the afternoon games and it was helped further by not having an isolated game to close out the day.

Usually, the late Sunday night game is always the most highly volatile game of the day just because every live parlay remaining on the day has a side to be decided compounding the book's risk. But on Christmas Eve it was three afternoon games and then the store was closed, good night, happy holidays.

The late games also saw the books fare well despite the Eagles game moving from them being a 2.5-point underdog to the -2.5-favorite by kickoff. Dallas QB Tony Romo got hurt early and the Eagles cruised to a 20-7 win.

The Chargers were bet up in their game at Detroit and moved the game three full points by kickoff. The Chargers had been almost unbeatable in Philip Rivers’ career during December going 23-2. They also had the dangling carrot of Denver collapsing, which kept them alive for a playoff berth. But Detroit smacked them early and often to win 38-10.

Sports books got middled in the 49ers’ 19-17 win at Seattle, but it turned out to be a much better decision than the 49ers winning by three or more points. Despite most sports books having the 49ers -2 on the ties-win parlay cards, the action over the counter was far greater on San Francisco and the books welcomed the minimal losses on paying both sides as the bulk of the action was on the 49ers -2.5.

The final tally had the favorites going 6-9 against the spread in Week 16 making the season mark 113-118-6.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:13 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 17

December 27, 2011

Sunday, Jan. 1 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

WSH: 6-1 ATS L7 vs division
WSH: 6-4 ATS L10 away underdog
PHI: 2-6 ATS L8 home favorite
PHI: 8-2 ATS L10 vs division

SF: 5-2 'under' L7 away
SF: 7-3-1 ATS L11 off win
STL: 2-12-1 ATS L15 overall
STL: 0-6 ATS L6 vs division

CHI: 6-2 'over' L8 overall
CHI: 2-4-1 ATS L7 away
MIN: 8-2 'over' L10 overall
MIN: 3-7-1 ATS L11 vs division

DET: 5-3-1 ATS L9 away
DET: 6-2 'over' L8 favorite
GB: 11-2 ATS L13 underdog
GB: 7-2 'over' L9 overall

CAR: 4-2 ATS L6 away
CAR: 9-6 'over' L15 overall
NOR: 8-1 ATS L9 overall
NOR: 10-1 ATS L11 home

TEN: 8-1 'under' L9 overall
TEN: 1-4 ATS L5 vs division
HOU: 6-2-1 ATS L9 overall
HOU: 6-0-1 'under' L7 home

IND: 4-0 ATS L4 overall
IND: 7-1 'under' L8 overall
JAX: 5-1 ATS L6 favorite
JAX: 4-1 'under' L5 vs division

NYJ: 4-1 'over' L5 overall
NYJ: 3-5 ATS L8 vs division
MIA: 8-1 ATS L9 overall
MIA: 5-2 'under' L7 home

BUF: 2-6 ATS L8 overall
BUF: 3-6-1 ATS L10 away
NE: 6-1 'over' L7 overall
NE: 11-1 'over' L12 vs division

Sunday, Jan. 1 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

TB: 1-8 ATS L9 overall
TB: 5-2 'over' L7 overall
ATL: 5-2 'under' L7 home
ATL: 6-2 ATS L8 as 7-pt fav or more

BAL 3-6-1 ATS L10 overall
BAL: 4-1 'under' L5 overall
CIN: 7-3-1 ATS L11 underdog
CIN: 9-5-1 'over' L15 overall

PIT: 8-4 ATS L12 vs division
PIT: 5-0 'under' L5 overall
CLE: 7-2-2 L11 'under' as 'dog
CLE: 5-1 ATS L6 overall

SD: 3-7 ATS L10 overall
SD: 3-6 ATS L9 away
OAK: 5-2 ATS L7 overall
OAK: 9-2 ATS L11 vs division

KC: 9-1 'under' L10 overall
KC: 4-7 ATS L11 vs division
DEN: 5-2-1 ATS L8 overall
DEN: 2-5-1 ATS L8 favorite

SEA: 7-1 ATS L8 overall
SEA: 4-2-1 ATS L7 away
ARZ: 6-3 ATS L9 overall
ARZ: 3-7 ATS L10 vs division

Sunday, Jan. 1 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DAL: 2-7 ATS L9 overall
DAL: 2-9 ATS L11 vs division
NYG: 2-6 ATS L8 favorite
NYG: 4-7 ATS L11 vs division

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:16 PM

Jaguars have plenty of motivation for finale

December 27, 2011

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - The Jacksonville Jaguars have plenty to play for in Sunday's season finale.

They want to give outgoing owner Wayne Weaver a victory in his final game. They want to get Maurice Jones-Drew the league rushing title. They want to keep the defense ranked in the top five.

All are realistic goals against the suddenly streaking Indianapolis Colts (2-13), who have won two in a row against AFC South opponents. Interim coach Mel Tucker reminded his players of everything at stake during a team meeting Monday.

What he didn't mention was any of those draft scenarios that have dominated outside conversation, especially not the one in which the Jaguars (4-11) could prevent the Colts from having the top pick in April.

Instead, it's about winning for the Weavers, getting yards for MoJo and making stops on defense. If all those happen Sunday, the Jaguars would end a mostly forgettable season with some positive memories.

``That's an extra piece of motivation,'' defensive end Jeremy Mincey said. ``You're only as good as your last game, and we want to make a great showing and move into the 2012 season with some momentum.''

The Jaguars are planning a special tribute to Wayne and Delores Weaver, who led the charge to get an expansion team in Jacksonville in 1993. Somehow, and to some surprise, the Weavers landed a team in one of the professional sport's smallest markets. Wayne Weaver controlled the team for 17 seasons, although the 76-year-old businessman spent the last few looking for an exit strategy. He found one last fall when he began negotiations to sell the franchise to Shahid Khan.

The $760 million deal was approved two weeks ago, and Khan will officially take over Jan. 4.

So the finale is Weaver's farewell.

``Mr. and Mrs. Weaver mean a lot to this city, and our fans and our players know that, our coaches know that,'' Tucker said. ``We want to put our best foot forward in their last game. Quite frankly, we'll give everything we can for them to finish on a high note. That's very, very important to this football team.''

Equally important is getting Jones-Drew the rushing title.

MJD leads the NFL with 1,437 yards on the ground, 128 yards more than Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. Jacksonville's short and stocky star has been the offense's lone bright spot this season. He's averaging 4.5 yards a carry against eight- and nine-man defensive fronts and with little threat of a passing game.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been slow to learn the nuances of playing the most important position in team sports, and he's been hampered by dropped passes, poor routes and shaky protection. And with a receiving corps that lacks big-play ability, the Jaguars have been forced to rely on Jones-Drew.

Boy, have they.

Jones-Drew has accounted for 46.5 percent of Jacksonville's offense this season, which leads the NFL and is on pace to shatter Fred Taylor's team record (36.2 percent) set in 2003. If he does win the rushing title, MoJo would become just the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing while having the NFL's worst passing offense. Baltimore's Jamal Lewis also did it in 2003.

In some regards, MJD's season has been as impressive as a 2,000-yard performance.

His longest run is 43 yards. His biggest game is 122 yards. And he's accounted for at least 40 percent of the team's offense in 11 of 15 games.

``He's been a beast,'' guard Uche Nwaneri said. ``You just can't describe how good he's been, how much he's carried us. What he's done he's done every game, every week, regardless of the opponents, regardless of the defenses. Everyone knows we're going to run it and they still can't stop him. It's unbelievable.''

Jacksonville's defense has been resilient, too.

The unit kept the Jaguars in just about every game early in the season. But after season-ending injuries to a dozen defensive backs, several defensive linemen and a starting linebacker, the defense has dipped in recent weeks. But players and coaches want to stay in the top five.

``The ranking is everything,'' Mincey said. ``To still be in the top five in the league, I think that's pretty impressive given we had so many guys get hurt. That's a lot to play for.''

But most of the external talk this week has centered on the draft.

If the Jaguars beat Indianapolis, the Colts would secure the No. 1 pick in the draft. So essentially Jacksonville can help provide the Colts the opportunity to draft Stanford's Andrew Luck, which means the possibility of delivering another top-tier quarterback prospect to the Colts. The Jaguars have faced - and struggled against - Peyton Manning twice a year since 2002.

``No one in this locker room is concerned with that,'' linebacker Paul Posluszny said. That's all stuff going on the outside. Trust me, we want to win more than anything. We have a lot of stuff that we are very proud of, and we want to finish strong this last game.

``We have a horrible record. We're not going to the playoffs. But we have a lot on the line.''

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:18 PM

Raiders need win, help to return to playoffs

December 26, 2011

ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) - The final week of the season for the Oakland Raiders has been mostly about the status of the coach, personal goals and planning for the offseason the past eight years.

There's plenty more on the line this season.

With a win at home in the finale against San Diego and a little bit of help from some other teams, the Raiders (8-7) can make the playoffs for the first time since their 2002 AFC championship season.

Oakland still has a chance to win the AFC West or make the postseason as a wild-card team depending on what happens Sunday. While some of the potential scenarios are complicated, the simple fact is this: If the Raiders lose to the Chargers, they will be eliminated.

``I am not going to get caught up in all the different scenarios,'' coach Hue Jackson said Monday. ``I know they're out there. I think I would be remiss as the leader of this football team if I just jumped over in that boat. I think the boat I have to jump in is getting this team to play as hard and well as it can play this weekend.''

The Raiders nearly lost any chance over the weekend in Kansas City before being saved by a pair of blocked field goals by Richard Seymour and a 53-yard pass from Carson Palmer to Darrius Heyward-Bey on the first play of overtime to set up Sebastian Janikowski's winning kick in a 16-13 win.

Oakland won that game despite committing 15 penalties and allowing another late touchdown drive that let Kansas City tie the game in the closing minutes.

``We're relentless, man,'' safety Tyvon Branch said. ``Things don't always go our way, but we always fight, we fight to the end, and that's one thing I can say about us.''

Oakland will be fighting until the end of the season for a change. Since going to the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, the Raiders had an NFL-worst seven straight seasons with at least 11 losses. Oakland ended that run by going 8-8 last season, but the Raiders were eliminated in the first quarter of their 15th game when Kansas City clinched the AFC West.

In past years, elimination came far earlier in the season as the Raiders were never really even in contention.

``This time of year you're usually shipping your car home, making travel plans,'' linebacker Quentin Groves said. ``But now it's all about getting that W.''

And getting help.

Oakland needs a win and a Denver loss at home to Kansas City to win the division. The Raiders can get a wild-card spot by winning, having Cincinnati lose at home to Baltimore and either the New York Jets winning at Miami or Tennessee losing at Houston.

The Jets and Titans play early Sunday, but the Broncos' and Bengals' games will be simultaneous to Oakland's, making for a complicated day. While some players said they don't want to know what happens in the other games, receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh said it will be impossible for him not to get updates throughout the day.

``I'm not going to be one of those guys that says, `I won't be paying attention.' I will,'' he said. ``But all of that doesn't matter if we don't win. So the bottom line is, if we win, and we don't get in, it hurts, but, at least you handled your part of the deal.''

Houshmandzadeh has been to the playoffs twice, with Cincinnati in 2005 and Baltimore last season. Many of the other Raiders are still looking for their first postseason trip.

Only punter Shane Lechler and kicker Sebastian Janikowski have been to the playoffs as Raiders, making this a new situation for most in the locker room.

``It feels good to be this close,'' said safety Michael Huff, who is in his sixth season. ``It's been a while since it's been like this around here. It's a good feeling. We know we have to go out there and handle our business this week and everything will take care of itself.''

Notes: RB Darren McFadden (right foot), WR Jacoby Ford (left foot) and Huff (hamstring) all planned to run Monday to determine how close they are to returning to practice. Huff, who has missed the past two games, said he will play no matter what. Ford, who has missed six games, said he would like to play as long as it didn't hurt the team. Jackson said he'd have a better idea Wednesday if McFadden could return after missing the past eight games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:21 PM

Week 17 Preview: Chiefs at Broncos

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-9)

at DENVER BRONCOS (8-7)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -3, Total: 36.5

Despite getting outscored 81-37 during a two-game losing skid, the Broncos only need to beat Kansas City at home on New Year’s Day to win the AFC West.

Chiefs QB Kyle Orton can exact a little revenge on the team that let him go. The Broncos are playing for a playoff spot, as they turned their season around after benching Orton in favor of Tim Tebow. The Broncos are 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS with Tebow as their starter, but the second-year QB is coming off a disastrous outing in Buffalo (13-of-30, 185 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 34 rush yards). Orton has done a solid job for K.C. in two starts (599 yards, 86.6 rating), but it’s been more of a matter of the defense stepping up under interim coach/defensive guru Romeo Crennel. The Chiefs held Green Bay to 14 points and Oakland to 16 (in OT). But those teams don’t run the football like the Broncos do. Denver has rushed for 120+ yards in 11 straight games, averaging 188 rushing YPG over this span. Also, consider the Broncos are 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 home meetings with Kansas City. This game will be tight, but DENVER and Tebow will find a way to win and cover.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also back the Broncos:

Play On - Any team (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. (50-25 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.7%, +22.5 units. Rating = 2*).

KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS (13.3%, -12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The average score was KANSAS CITY 18.7, OPPONENT 30.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite outgaining Oakland 435 to 308 last week, the Chiefs’ playoffs hopes were dashed with a 16-13 overtime defeat. Although Orton threw the ball pretty well (21-for-36, 300 yds, 1 TD), he also tossed two interceptions. Kansas City also did a nice job on the ground (135 rushing yards) as Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones combined for 107 yards on 25 carries. Battle also rushed for 61 yards on just nine carries (6.8 YPC) when these teams met in Week 10, a 17-10 Denver victory. The Chiefs have failed to reach 20 points in a game since Halloween though, averaging a paltry 9.6 PPG in these eight contests.

Tebow completed just 2-of-8 passes at Kansas City on Nov. 13, but he still managed to throw a 56-yard TD pass to Eric Decker in the fourth quarter. Tebow also ran for 43 yards and a touchdown as part of his team’s 55 rushing attempts for 244 yards (4.4 YPC). Lance Ball carried the football 30 times for 96 yards that day. Denver is usually a tough team to beat in the mile-high altitude, but this year, the club is just 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) at home.

Both teams could be without their starting free safeties on Sunday. K.C.’s Jon McGraw (ankle) and Denver’s Brian Dawkins (neck) are both listed as questionable.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:23 PM

Week 17 Preview: Lions at Packers

DETROIT LIONS (10-5)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (14-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Lions look to end a 20-game losing streak at Lambeau Field when they match up with a Packers team that has nothing to play for.

With the No. 1 seed in the NFC sewn up, the Packers figure to take it easy in Week 17, especially in light of QB Aaron Rodgers banging his hand on a helmet in the first half of the Christmas night win. That’s great news for the Lions, who have clinched a playoff spot but are still battling for seeding. The Lions actually outgained Green Bay (409-349) in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, but burned themselves with three Matthew Stafford interceptions (he was still battling a broken finger) and 11 penalties. They also lost starting RB Kevin Smith to an ankle injury early in that game. The pick here is DETROIT to win and cover.

The FoxSheets provide another trend siding with the Lions:

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (29-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 2*).

With Atlanta losing Monday night to drop to 9-6, the 10-5 Lions just need a win to earn the No. 5 seed to face the NFC East winner that will have a worse record than Detroit. The No. 6 seed will have to play at New Orleans or San Francisco, two teams that are 12-3 this season. Detroit hasn’t escaped Green Bay with a victory since 1991, but the team is surging with 100 points during a current three-game win streak. The Lions pounded San Diego 38-10 last week behind 373 passing yards and 3 TD from Stafford. Green Bay’s passing defense has allowed the second-most yards in the league (286 YPG), and will likely be resting many starters. Weather permitting, this should make for a productive afternoon for Stafford and Calvin Johnson, his favorite receiver. Johnson, who has 1,437 receiving yards and 15 TD this year, has 557 yards and nine touchdowns in eight career games versus Green Bay. The Lions have the fourth-worst rushing offense in the league (97 YPG) though, and have averaged a pathetic 76 YPG (3.6 YPC) in the past four games.

Green Bay bounced back from its lone loss of the season with an impressive 35-21 victory over Chicago on Christmas night. Aaron Rodgers passed for 283 yards and 5 TD versus the Bears. He now has 45 touchdowns and just 6 INT this year, but he probably won’t get much time under center (if any) to improve upon his record-setting 122.5 passer rating this year. Although top receiver Greg Jennings remains out (knee), WR Jordy Nelson has come up big all season. His 115 receiving yards and 2 TD against Chicago give him 1,101 yards and 12 TD for the year. The Packers running game has the sixth-fewest yards in the league (99 YPG) and it’s not getting any better with leading rusher James Starks (578 rush yds, 4.3 YPC) still bothered by an ankle injury. No. 2 RB Ryan Grant (511 rush yds, 4.2 YPC), who also has a history of injury problems, may not play too much on Sunday. Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in run defense (131 YPG), so whichever Green Bay player carries the football should find a good amount of running room.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:25 PM

Week 17 Preview: Bills at Patriots

BUFFALO BILLS (6-9)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -12.5, Total: 51

The Patriots can lock up home-field advantage with another home win, while the Bills are looking for a second upset of the Pats on Sunday.

In Buffalo’s comeback win over New England back in Week 3, the team moved the ball at will against an atrocious Patriots defense, going for 448 yards of offense in a 34-31 win. The Pats defense is still subpar, though the Bills are now without starting RB Fred Jackson. However, C.J. Spiller has done an admirable job replacing Jackson and he’ll get plenty of action on Sunday. Although Buffalo has dropped 10 straight meetings in Foxboro, the team should keep this score within reason against a Pats team that has won three of their past four games by seven points or less. The pick here is BUFFALO to win against the spread.

The FoxSheets provide another trend favoring the Bills:

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in conference games. (55-25 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.8%, +27.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The Week 3 meeting in Buffalo turned on four Tom Brady interceptions, and that history is unlikely to repeat itself. The Patriots have totaled just two turnovers during their current seven-game win streak, which continued last week with a come-from-behind (down 17-0 at half), 27-24 victory over Miami. Brady is playing out of this world, throwing for 313 YPG, 16 TD and 1 INT in the seven games. For his career, Brady is 17-2 against Buffalo with 236 passing YPG, 43 TD and 16 INT. New England’s running game has been improving too, with 260 yards on 3.9 YPC in the past two games. The Bills defense ranks 28th in the NFL in rushing defense (139 YPG) and has allowed 130+ rushing yards in each of the past five games (172 YPG average). A big concern for the Pats is their beat-up offensive line. Starters Logan Mankins (knee), Matt Light (ankle) and Sebastian Vollmer (back) are all questionable to play on Sunday.

Before September, Buffalo had lost 15 in a row SU against New England (4-10-1 ATS). The team had also dropped seven straight games during this season before ending the skid with a 40-14 win over Denver last week. The Bills scored just one offensive touchdown though, adding a punt return TD and two more scores off interception returns. Spiller has had back-to-back monster weeks, totaling 202 rushing yards (7.2 YPC), 103 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the two games. Considering New England has allowed 179 rushing YPG in its past three games, Spiller could have a big afternoon. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is also looking forward to facing the Pats’ injury-riddled secondary. New England is last in the NFL in passing defense (295 YPG), and Fitzpatrick lit them up for 369 passing yards (9.23 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT in the Week 3 meeting.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:26 PM

Week 17 Preview: Ravens at Bengals

BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-4)

at CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 38

Cincinnati is just one win away from a playoff spot, but getting that victory will be difficult against a Baltimore team that can still earn the top seed in the AFC.

The Ravens have been a borderline disaster on the road this year, where they’re 3-4 SU and ATS. Most recently, they went to San Diego and got absolutely pasted by the Chargers. The Bengals have their backs against the wall as far as a playoff spot goes, and they nearly upended the Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 11. Cincinnati was seven yards away from forcing overtime, but couldn’t get it in over four downs. Considering the Ravens’ struggles in the secondary, the Bengals’ big-play receivers have a chance to take over this game early and often. The pick here is for CINCINNATI to pull out the victory.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star coaching trend favoring the Bengals:

Marvin Lewis is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 24.1, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Not only were the Ravens stomped 34-14 at San Diego two games ago, but last week they had a too-close-for-comfort 20-14 home win against Cleveland. They are 7-2 SU in the past nine games, but only 3-5-1 ATS in this stretch. Ray Rice continues to carry the offense with 1,173 rushing yards this year. This includes 104 yards and 2 TD against Cincinnati earlier this year. But Cincy’s run-stop unit has been tough (97 YPG, fifth in NFL), allowing just 154 yards on 42 carries (3.7 YPC) in the past two games. QB Joe Flacco also played well against the Bengals, completing 17-of-27 passes for 270 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. But he will be missing his top receiver, Anquan Boldin, who is out with a knee injury.

Cincinnati has won four of the past five home meetings (SU and ATS) with the Ravens. When these teams met Nov. 20, rookie QB Andy Dalton tossed three picks, but also threw for 373 yards and had a first-and-goal at the Ravens 7-yard line in the final two minutes before falling short. Last week it was the Bengals that nearly let a 23-0 fourth-quarter lead slip away to Arizona before holding on for the 23-16 win. Cincy rushed for 165 yards in the victory, marking its eighth straight 100-yard rushing game. Although the Ravens have a stellar run defense (92 YPG, second in NFL), they have allowed 262 yards on 4.2 YPC in the past two games. Bengals RB Cedric Benson has run pretty well this year (1,016 yards, 3.9 YPC), but had a season-low 41 yards against Baltimore. The Bengals will probably rely more on Dalton through the air looking for his favorite target, rookie WR A.J. Green (1,031 rec. yds, 7 TD). Dalton will also key in on WR Jerome Simpson who dominated the Ravens earlier this year with eight catches for 152 yards.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2011, 10:28 PM

NFL | TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | TENNESSEE at HOUSTON
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a home win
68-19 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.2% | 0.0 units )
5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 0.0 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (INDIANAPOLIS) revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2011, 07:10 PM

Top 5 NFL Trends

TEN
HOU Under is 8-0-1 in TEN last 9 games overall.

CAR
NO NO are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.

TB
ATL Over is 8-0-1 in ATL last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

DET
GB GB are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

BUF
NE Over is 8-0 in NE last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2011, 07:14 PM

NFL Spread Sheet: Books lower limits in Week 17

Week 17 is a different animal. You’ve got to answer questions like:

Does this team need to win, and if so, how badly?

How will the coach play it?

If a related game turns into a blowout, will my team pull starters?

Take Detroit-Green Bay. The Pack have wrapped up the NFC’s No. 1 seed and are playing for nothing. The Lions can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win, avoiding a likely first-round game in New Orleans.

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said “we’re going to play to win the game…but health is an issue for us.”

Added QB Aaron Rodgers: “I think as a close friend of Matt [Flynn], I wouldn’t mind seeing him get an opportunity to play a little bit, but I’ll definitely do whatever Mike says.”

With that kind of uncertainty, bettors and oddsmakers are proceeding with caution.

Books are waiting later than normal to post certain lines. When those games are up, they’ll carry lower betting limits.

“Some coaches make it almost impossible to book games normally,” Chris Andrews, race and sports director at Cal Neva Resort in Lake Tahoe, told ***********. “Sometimes we cut limits, just in half [from the normal 10K]. I hate to do that too much. We try to stay on top of what’s happening by reading and listening to as much as we can.”

At MGM Mirage properties, the book is putting a 10K limit on certain games instead of the usual 30K.

“It’s almost like preseason this week,” sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “Teams will be resting players, so we tread carefully.”

However, games like Baltimore-Cincy and Dallas-Giants warrant no restrictions. Every team has plenty to play for.

The same is true of games like Washington-Philly.

“There are no question marks,” said Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook director. “Both are playing out the season.”

Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach said he’s targeting matchups between teams that “need to win” and also-rans. They include Jets-Dolphins, Panthers-Saints, 49ers-Rams, Bills-Pats, Steelers-Browns, Chiefs-Broncos and Chargers-Raiders.

In many cases, he said, the contender is laying too many points.

“As long as a team that has nothing to lose is focused, I like to go with teams like that in Week 17,” he said. “They make for dangerous dogs and I'd rather play on them and play against teams who are facing a lot of pressure. Also, teams who ‘need to win’ tend to end up overpriced by the betting markets and I like to grab the value on the other side of those ‘must-win’ teams more often than not.”

Week 17 trends

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence unearthed these trends about playoff teams in their final regular-season games:

They’re 114-67-5 ATS at home (Atlanta, Green Bay, New Orleans, Houston and New England this week).

They’re 20-7 ATS as home dogs (Houston and Green Bay).

They’re 22-8-1 ATS off back-to-back losses (Houston).

They’re 98-74- ATS vs. losing teams (Atlanta, San Francisco, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and New England).

Super Bowl odds

Caesars Palace on Tuesday cut the Saints’ Super Bowl odds while raising those of the Packers, 49ers and Falcons following another impressive performance by New Orleans.

The Saints, who demolished Atlanta 45-16 on Monday, went from 7/2 to 3/1 to win it all while the Falcons went from 25/1 to 28/1.

Green Bay went from 13.5/10 to 8/5. San Fran went from 9/2 to 5/1.

“We’re just trying to balance the top three teams, which seem to be on pretty equal footing with the exception of homefield advantage,” said Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment. “It still looks like New Orleans will have to go on the road and win at San Fran and Green Bay to represent the NFC.”

The Saints, who have won seven straight, would probably be a 1-point favorite at San Fran in a potential divisional playoff game, Fuhrman said.

Caesars hasn’t reacted more strongly to New Orleans’ surge because it’s in a strong position if the Saints win it all.

“We actually started them lower than the rest of the market strategically before the year,” Fuhrman said. “So that’s who we’re rooting for at our properties.”

Currently, Caesars offers these odds to win Super Bowl XLVI:

Packers: 8/5

Saints: 3/1

Patriots: 4/1

49ers: 5/1

Ravens: 6/1

Steelers: 8/1

Cowboys: 18/1

Lions: 18/1

Giants: 20/1

Falcons: 28/1

Texans: 30/1

Broncos: 40/1

Raiders: 40/1

Bengals: 60/1

Titans: 75/1

Jets: 90/1

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2011, 07:16 PM

New York Jets In Must-Win At Miami Dolphins

Has Rex Ryan’s act finally worn thin? Brandon Jacobs certainly thinks so.

Never mind the controversies surrounding the Jets’ head coach and the Giants’ punishing running back, which came to a head in a postgame confrontation following the G-Men’s 29-14 win over the Jets in the battle of New York last week. Evidence elsewhere has also caused Jets fans to speculate the direction of their team under Ryan.

And that future looks like it won’t include the playoffs.

The specifics of the final regular-season game this weekend at Sun Life Stadium on the Dade and Broward county line say the Jets (8-7 straight up, 6-9 against the spread) will be visiting the Dolphins (5-10 SU, 9-6 ATS) for a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff. CBS will provide TV coverage, with the jolly pair of Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf providing the commentary.

A check of the Don Best odds screen notes that money has slowly been flowing Miami’s way this week, as the Dolphins are priced as 1½-2 point favorites at Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the total mostly at 41.

The Jets’ recent unraveling has been as dramatic as it has been unexpected. Sitting in good shape for a playoff berth two weeks ago, lopsided losses to the Eagles and Giants by a 74-33 combined score suddenly have Ryan’s troops looking for help to have a chance to qualify for the postseason.

The problem for the Jets is that even if they win on Sunday, they’ll need help elsewhere. Lots of it. New York also loses tiebreakers to the Raiders and Titans, and its only route to the playoffs will be to beat Miami and hope that all among Cincinnati, Oakland and Tennessee meet defeat in the final week.

It’s not an impossible parlay, but neither is Rick Santorum’s path to the GOP presidential nomination, either. Call it unlikely instead.

Winning this game against the surging Dolphins might not be easy for the Jets, especially after the meltdown vs. the Giants. And it is also fair to wonder if the “big-mouthed, big-bellied” (Jacobs’ words, not ours) Ryan is losing his grip on his team, not to mention providing much cannon fodder for the opposition. Speculation is rife in the Big Apple that the relationship between Ryan and QB Mark Sanchez has also become especially frosty.

Some AFC East observers wonder if this marriage between coach and QB is due for a divorce in the near future. Sanchez does not seem to be progressing, and continues to blow hot-and-cold. He’s also looked increasingly uncomfortable in the pocket the past two weeks. Insiders also wonder if the play-calling of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer might be a bigger problem.

The Jets have not been running with consistency in recent weeks, and Sanchez was backed up to throw a whopping 64 times (59 passes and five sacks) against the G-Men last Saturday. That is hardly a recipe for success, with Sanchez’s confidence suffering as a result. And with little speed in the RB corps (Shonn Greene more of a banger), opposing defenses are committing to stopping Sanchez first. Sanchez has also been sacked 12 times in the last three games.

Moreover, the Jets defense has been leaky in recent games, with the absence of injured S Jim Leonhard removing much of the glue from the secondary. Ryan’s stop unit has been burned for too many big plays lately, including the 99-yard Eli Manning-to-Victor Cruz TD pass last week that got the Giants out of a big hole late in the first half at MetLife Stadium.

As for Miami, it can be argued that the Dolphins have been playing better than the Jets over the past two months. The Dolphins have won five of their last eight games after beginning the season 0-7, although along the way they did lose coach Tony Sparano, dismissed after a December 11 loss to the Eagles.

Under interim coach Todd Bowles, however, Miami has continued an ascent that began when Sparano was still in the saddle at midseason. It’s worth noting that the Dolphins have also covered the spread in the last eight games finished by QB Matt Moore. In the one non-cover for Miami during a nine-game span since late October, Moore was KO’d in the aforementioned loss to the Eagles and replaced by a rusty J.P. Losman in a 26-10 defeat, the Dolphins’ lone poor effort since before Halloween.

Moore’s emergence as a serviceable NFL QB has been a significant development over the last half of the season. With 15 TD passes and only seven picks, Moore has cut down on his mistakes and established an admirable rapport with WR Brandon Marshall, who looks dominating in recent weeks and has now caught 77 passes this season. Moreover, RB Reggie Bush is finally living up to expectations, breaking the 100-yard barrier in four straight games and cracking the 1000-yard rushing mark for the first time in his career.

Miami looks a much different team than the struggling and winless side that lost 24-6 in a mid-October Monday night game at the Meadowlands in what was Moore’s first start of the season. With a rejuvenated offense, an aggressive pass rush that has recorded 39 sacks, and plenty of size on the corners, Miami seems poised to continue its late-season ascent and reverse that earlier loss to the Jets.

And if that’s the case, how the Ryan and Sanchez soap opera proceeds is anyone’s guess.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2011, 07:18 PM

San Francisco 49ers Big Favorites At St. Louis Rams

San Francisco is a 10½-point road favorite Sunday in St. Louis.
With a first-round bye in the playoffs on the line, the San Francisco 49ers head to St. Louis to take on the struggling Rams.

San Francisco is currently a 10½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game starts at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Holding the conference tiebreaker over New Orleans, San Francisco controls its own destiny for the NFC’s No. 2 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it; win this game, and it’s theirs. Interestingly enough, this game could also play a part in deciding which team gets next year’s first overall pick in the NFL Draft; if St. Louis loses and Indianapolis wins this week, St. Louis will finish the season with the worst record in the NFL.

San Francisco (12-3) needed four field goals to narrowly edge out Seattle 19-17 last week, failing against the spread for just the third time this season as a 2½-point favorite. With the game-winning field goal, David Akers brought his season total to 42, setting an NFL record for the most ever in a single season.

The old adage says “defense wins championships,” and the 49ers certainly have a championship caliber defense. Ranking best in the NFL in allowing just 13.5 points per game, as well as rushing defense (75.1 yards per game), and fourth best in total yards (308.1 per game), Jim Harbaugh’s defense has smothered teams all season long. In St. Louis’s shocking upset over New Orleans, Steven Jackson had 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns; hard to imagine this defense allowing a day like that.

St. Louis (2-13) has had a miserable season and has been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball. Sam Bradford has missed significant time at quarterback and hasn’t been healthy when he has played. On the defensive side, the Rams have put six different cornerbacks on injured reserve.

With Sam Bradford dealing with an ankle injury and A.J. Feeley dealing with a thumb fracture, both are currently doubtful for Sunday’s game against San Francisco. Kellen Clemens was extremely ineffective against Pittsburgh last week with just 91 passing yards, and Tom Brandstater has never taken a snap in the NFL. Whoever is starting at quarterback, the offense will revolve around Steven Jackson, who was held to just 19 yards on 10 carries in St. Louis’s last game against San Francisco.

San Francisco is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games against St. Louis, including an easy 26-0 win at home earlier this season. This game pits the team with the NFL’s best record ATS in San Francisco (11-3-1) against the team with the NFL’s worst record ATS in St. Louis (2-12-1).

The total for this game is the lowest on the Don Best odds screen in Week 17, set at just 35½. The total has gone ‘under’ in five of San Francisco’s last six games and in six of St. Louis’s last eight, and has also gone ‘under’ in four of the last five games these division rivals have played in St. Louis.

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