The Bum's NFL Week # 16 Best Bets + MNF GOY !

[StarDust Bum]

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman stopped by DonBest.com just before the holiday weekend to talk about some of the upcoming bowl games in college football as well as some juicy NFL matchups.

Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora will be on the sidelines for North Carolina next season but he still has one more game to coach with his Golden Eagles on Saturday. They will take on the Nevada Wolf Pack as 8-point favorites in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. That’s a big jump as Southern Miss opened at -6 at Caesars on the Don Best odds screen. The current total is 62½.

One of the best non-BCS bowl games just might be the Champs Sports Bowl between Florida State and Notre Dame on Thursday, December 29. The Seminoles are sitting on that key number of -3 over the Fighting Irish as the game will be played at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Right now the total is 47.

Heisman winner Robert Griffin III will lead his Baylor Bears into the Valero Alamo Bowl against the Huskies of Washington following up that game in Hawaii on ESPN. Bluntly put by Fuhrman, “I think Washington is an extremely live underdog.” The Huskies are a 9½-point dog with the total set at 79.

One of the most incredible stats that may be crucial to this game is that schools with the Heisman Trophy winner are just 10-25-1 against the spread in bowl games the last 36 years.

An absolutely monumental collision is brewing in the state of New York this weekend, or rather, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants and Jets will face off at MetLife Stadium in a game they each need to emerge victorious in order to keep their playoff hopes intact. Technically slated as the home team, the Jets are favored by a field goal over their NFC brother with a total of 46.

Christmas Eve football this Saturday also includes a big pairing out of the NFC East between the Eagles and Cowboys in Arlington. It’s open season for bettors pounding the Eagles as the Cowboys were favored by a field goal in some spots but are just -1½ now at Caesars. The total is 50½.

Finally, ESPN’s Monday Night Football will conclude its season with a superb battle out of the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints are just under the key number at -6½ over the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

Drew Brees has been on fire and proves every week that he is a top QB in the NFL. He needs just 305 yards to pass Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record of 5,084 with two games to go.

The highest total of the week award goes to this contest at 52½.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Trends - Week 16

December 22, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since December 2005 on the road after a home game last week where they held their opponent out of the end zone on at least two trips to the red zone.


NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 15, 1992 after a game where they led by double digits after one quarter and did not punt more than three times.



NFL OU OVER TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Patriots are 14-0 OU (7.9 ppg) since 2007 as a favorite after a win as an away favorite where they scored at least four touchdowns.



NFL OU UNDER TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Seahawks are 0-11-1 OU (-9.2 ppg) since September 30, 2007 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent.



TOP NFL SYSTEM:

The League is 0-14 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a favorite the week after on the road as a TD+ favorite in which their completion percentage was at least eight points higher than their season-to-date average. Active on Dallas.



NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 2004 when they are off a game in which they had more than thirty minutes of possession time, but allowed at least five points more than expected.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 16

December 23, 2011

College Bowls

If you play totals in pro football then one could only assume that you dabble on the college gridiron totals too. Through six games this postseason, the ‘over’ stands at 4-2 (67%) but make a note that the numbers have been spot on. Three of the winning ‘over’ tickets barely got their and the majority of the scoring has been done in the second-half. For those keeping score at home, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in the first-half so far. That could change on Saturday night in the Hawaii Bowl, which has been known to see shootouts.

System Plays

The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up for the last time this regular season on Saturday. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 69% (27-12-2) over the last seven seasons, and its gone 4-2 (67%) this season. Hopefully, the last matchup of the season, which goes Saturday, will be another winner.

Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Week 12 – Arizona 23 at St. Louis 20 (OVER 40)
Week 12 - Buffalo 24 at N.Y. Jets 28 (OVER 42.5)
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay

Divisional Trends

Squaring off for the second time in a season can have differing results. On Thursday, we watched Indianapolis rally for its second win after beating Houston, 19-16. The combined 35 points went ‘under’ the closing number of 40. Should we expect more of the same for the rest of the week? With seven matchups left for Saturday, let’s recap the first meeting and look at the current form.

Oakland at Kansas City: The Chiefs ripped the Raiders 28-0 as visitors on Oct. 23.Oakland has watched its last five games go ‘over’ while Kansas City is on an 8-1 run to the ‘under.’ Including the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run between this pair.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: These two met in Week 1 with the Jaguars earning a 16-14 victory at home. The Titans have seen their last eight games go ‘under’ the number. Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven in this series.

Miami at New England: The Patriots and Dolphins have seen their last three matchups go ‘over’ which includes this year’s Week 1 battle on MNF. New England beat Miami 38-24 on the road. The total is high (48) but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Pats have put up 30-plus in all of their last six games.

Cleveland at Baltimore: This matchup fits the System Plays (See Above). Four of the last five meetings here have gone ‘under’ the number. The Browns have been held to 10 points or less four times during this stretch. Baltimore beat Cleveland 24-10 on Dec. 4 this season.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Cam Newton and the Panthers ripped the Buccaneers 38-19 in early December on the road. Carolina It wouldn’t be surprising to see a duplicate performance considering Tampa Bay has given up 32 PPG during its eight-game losing streak. Four of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.

San Francisco at Seattle: Who could forget the Ted Ginn game! Leading 19-17 late in the fourth quarter, the former Ohio State standout returned two touchdowns to give San Francisco a 33-17 victory. The 49ers got the cover and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 38. A lot has changed since that Week 1 affair. Seattle is on a 4-1 run to the ‘over’ while San Francisco is 4-1 to the ‘under.’ The total is 2-2-1 in the last five clashes between these squads.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings here, yet we’re looking at a total in the fifties (50.5). Both clubs have the weapons on offense to light it up, which you could see in the last two weeks. Philadelphia put up 26 and 45, while Dallas posted 34 and 31 points offensively.

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)

Atlanta at New Orleans: (See Under the Lights)

Under the Lights

The primetime affairs went 1-1 last weekend, but the ‘under’ should’ve posted a 2-0 mark. Fortunately for some ‘over’ players, the Ravens added a late touchdown in their 34-14 loss to the Chargers, which helped eclipse the closing number of 45. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 17-12-1 (59%) in games under the lights this season.

Chicago at Green Bay: After watching the Packers put up a season-low 14 points last week against Kansas City, the oddsmakers might believe their offense isn’t invincible. This week’s total against the Bears is hovering around 43 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ Green Bay has seen all season long. Chicago has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the road, while Green Bay has posted a 5-1 mark to the ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. This head-to-head series has watched the ‘under’ cash in the last eight meetings.

Atlanta at New Orleans: Anytime the Saints play you have to look at the ‘over’ just based on their explosiveness. However the New Orleans juggernaut has been held to an average of 23.3 PPG in the last four encounters against Atlanta, which has resulted in a 3-1 record to the ‘under.’ This week’s number is hovering around 52. The Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in games with totals at 50 or higher.

Fearless Predictions

Ugh, we posted the bagel last week and the deficit was $430. Fortunately the profits still stand at $300 on the season. Hopefully the holidays treat us better. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-Detroit 52

Best Under: Chicago-Green Bay 44

Best Team Total: Under Denver 22.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over San Diego-Detroit 43
Under Denver-Buffalo 50.5
Over Dallas-Philadelphia 41.5

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +9.5 500
New England - Under 50 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -12.5 500
Baltimore - Under 38.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -4.5 500
Cincinnati - Over 41 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Washington -7 500
Washington - Over 44 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 43 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +12 500
Pittsburgh - Under 34.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 47 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -9 500
Carolina - Over 47.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7.5 500
Tennessee - Under 40 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -1 500
Kansas City - Under 42 500

San Diego - 4:05 PM ET Detroit -1 500
Detroit - Over 52 500

Philadelphia - 4:15 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500
Dallas - Under 50.5 500

San Francisco - 4:15 PM ET Seattle +1 500
Seattle - Over 37.5 500

[Udog]

Good luck today, Bum!

[Kaptain]

GL SD Bum....you ahve a good and safe Holiday my friend.......thanks

[bwade210]

Looks great SDB!

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:20 PM ET Green Bay -11.5 500

Green Bay - Under 42 500

[jt4545]

Thanks for all the info merry christmas

[StarDust Bum]

Tale of the tape: Falcons at Saints

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52)

Offense

New Orleans averages 32.6 points, second-most in the NFL, and leads the league in total yards (456.7) and passing yards (331.4). Drew Brees has thrown 16 TDs and 0 INTs over his last five games. He throws to a deep receiving corps featuring uncoverable TE Jimmy Graham (1,171 receiving yards, 9 TDs). Darren Sproles is averaging 6.5 yards a carry and has 79 catches out of the backfield, but played his worst game in the previous matchup with Atlanta.

The Falcons are reaping the benefits of the Julio Jones trade, as the explosive rookie has racked up 257 receiving yards and three TDs over the last three games. The Falcons have scored 72 points over the past two games, with Matt Ryan throwing for 7 TDs and 0 INTs. RB Michael Turner (4.1 ypc) is predictably slowing down toward the end of the season, but has gashed the Saints in his last two visits (265 yards, 2 TDs).

Edge: Saints

Defense

The Saints give up 21.9 points per game, tied for 15th in the NFL. They’re vulnerable to the run, giving up 4.9 yards a carry. Only three teams give up more passing yards, but that’s a function of New Orleans usually playing with the lead. The Saints got just one sack and two QB hits against Ryan in the earlier meeting.

Atlanta DE John Abraham is coming off his best game of the season. He had 3.5 sacks and forced two fumbles that resulted in 10 points. But Saints LT Jermon Bushrod has a 42-pound advantage and didn’t allow a sack in the first matchup. Falcons LB Stephen Nicholas (toe) is doubtful, and CB Brent Grimes (knee) is questionable. Atlanta gives up 20.1 points per game, which ranks 10th.

Edge: Falcons

Special teams

Saints K John Kasay, 42, doesn’t have much leg left. He’s just 6 of 12 on field goals from 40 yards or longer. Darren Sproles is a dangerous returner who averages 26.1 yards on kickoff returns (7th, NFL) and has taken one punt back for a TD.

Falcons K Matt Bryant is 23 of 25 on field goals, including 6 of 8 from 40-plus. Eric Weems averages 23.3 yards on kickoff returns, which ranks 20th. Matt Bosher ranks 19th with a 38.5-yard net punting average.

Edge: Even

Word on the street

"The sky's the limit and that's where we're trying to get to. Our goal is nothing less than a victory in the Super Bowl, and right now we just trying to stay focused and take it one step at a time." – Saints safety Roman Harper.

“He adds a whole lot to their defense. He’s really the quarterback of their defense. He gets them in and out of coverages.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Saints MLB Jonathan Vilma, who missed the earlier meeting with a knee injury but will play Monday.

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons at Saints: What bettors need to know

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5, 52)

THE STORY: With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing record squarely in his sights, Drew Brees will lead the New Orleans Saints into a critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season. Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory and remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed. The Falcons would clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to the key number of 7 before falling back to 6.5 at most books. If you shop hard, you can find 6 or 7 (even). The total opened at 53.5 and has fallen to 52.5 or 52.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5): Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-3): How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week’s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn’t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.

2. Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.

3. “I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees’ recent play.

TRENDS:

- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in Saints' last 16 vs. NFC South.

PREDICTION: Saints 34, Falcons 31 -- Atlanta keeps it close as usual, but Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offense extend their win streak to seven.

[bwade210]

Looking forward to your play on MNF SDB. GL buddy!

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, December 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta +6.5 500 MNF GOY

New Orleans - Over 52 500

[bwade210]

[StarDust Bum]

MY BAD........Atlanta laid a big egg......and will get the same again if they have to go back in a few weeks..........