The Bum's NFL Week # 16 Best Bets + MNF GOY !

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Week 16 Preview: Dolphins at Patriots

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-9)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3)


Kickoff: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -10.5, Total: 48.5

The Patriots look to continue their six-game win streak when they invite division foe Miami to town on Saturday. The Dolphins have won five of their past seven games.

Miami proved it can play in the cold by winning in snowy Buffalo last week, and the Dolphins visit Foxboro this week, where they’ve managed to cover in two of their past three December/January visits. The Miami offense has been much improved with QB Matt Moore under center, averaging 25.6 PPG over its past seven games, and the Dolphins should be able to move the ball on a weak Patriots defense. Stopping New England will be another story, as Miami doesn’t have the bodies in the secondary to match up. The Pats rolled up 622 yards of offense, and QB Tom Brady threw for 517 and 4 TD in their Week 1 matchup, a 38-24 Pats win. But Dallas is the only other team to throw for 250 yards against Miami all season, and the Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games, holding opponents to just 71 rushing YPG on just 3.2 YPC. The play here is MIAMI to keep the final score within single digits.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support the Dolphins:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (95-56 since 1983.) (62.9%, +33.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (NEW ENGLAND) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (122-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.9%, +42.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The Patriots have played four straight games Over the total, and this rare five-star FoxSheets trend also expects the OVER to occur on Saturday:

Play Over - Any team against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (72-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +51.1 units. Rating = 5*).

New England is scoring 35.8 PPG during its six-game win streak, posting 31+ points in each game, which includes hanging 41 points in Denver on Sunday. Brady has been on fire, riding a current streak of nine straight games with multiple TD passes. And he has usually enjoyed facing Miami in his career, going 13-6 with 4,000 passing yards, 35 TD and 17 INT against the Dolphins. WR Wes Welker, who leads the NFL with 1,380 receiving yards, has been a big reason why Brady has been so successful against the Dolphins. In eight career meetings against his former team, Welker has 63 catches for 843 yards, which includes his 99-yard TD reception in Week 1. The Patriots have several injuries on both sides of the ball. On offense, WR Deion Branch (groin), RB Shane Vereen (hamstring), G Dan Connolly (groin) and OT Sebastian Vollmer (back) are all listed as questionable. On defense, DE Andre Carter, LB Brandon Spikes and S Patrick Chung are all questionable because of knee injuries.

Interim head coach Todd Bowles had to be pleased with his team’s effort in his first game since taking over for Tony Sparano. The Dolphins rushed for 254 yards and threw for 194 more despite going just 3-of-13 on third down conversions. Reggie Bush had a huge afternoon with 203 yards on 25 carries (8.1 YPC), including a 76-yard TD run to ice the game in the fourth quarter. Bush has strung together three straight 100-yard games, a huge improvement from his 38 yards on 11 carries against New England in Week 1. QB Matt Moore has also been playing great football lately, despite suffering a concussion two weeks ago. In the past five games, Moore has thrown for 8 TD and just 1 INT. And considering the Patriots allow the most passing yards in the NFL (297 YPG), it’s a good bet that Moore will be throwing all over Gillette Stadium on Christmas Eve.

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Week 16 Preview: Giants at Jets

NEW YORK GIANTS (7-7)

at NEW YORK JETS (8-6)


Kickoff: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: N.Y. Jets -3, Total: 46

The league’s only in-town rivals are both struggling heading into this matchup of Giants and Jets at MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve.

Both teams were embarrassed in Week 15, with the Jets blown out by 26 in Philadelphia, and the Giants losing to the Redskins for a second time, dropping a 23-10 defeat. The Giants typically struggle in their home stadium when their passing game goes awry in December, and QB Eli Manning had 3 INT and no touchdowns in last week’s loss, in large part due to horrible performances from his receiving corps. If the wind is whipping, the Jets are better equipped to move the ball because of their superior running game and better underneath receivers. The play here is the N.Y. JETS to win and cover.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Jets:

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (N.Y. GIANTS) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 2*).

These teams haven’t met since 2007, a 35-24 Giants win. This gives the G-Men four straight wins over the Jets, whose last win in this New York series came in 1993.

The Jets have played four straight games Over the total, and this three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also thinks the OVER will occur again on Saturday:

Rex Ryan is 17-4 OVER (81.0%, +12.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of N.Y. JETS. The average score was N.Y. JETS 24.9, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Neither quarterback has been reliable late in the season in their careers. Manning has a subpar 15-19 record with a poor 75.0 passer rating in December, while Jets QB Mark Sanchez is 5-5 with a horrendous 68.8 rating in the season’s final month. Although Manning (4,362 passing yards) is statistically superior this year, Sanchez (3,009 passing yards) has actually played better in his home stadium (88.0 rating; 15 TD, 7 INT) than Manning has (86.9 rating, 11 TD, 9 INT).

Neither team has run the football like they are capable of, but the Jets have rushed for 104 YPG, while the Giants sport the worst rushing offense in the league at 86 YPG. Both teams have had their share of injuries to running backs and offensive linemen, but both New York clubs are pretty healthy heading into this Week 16 matchup.

Both teams were done in by turnovers last week, which has been a common theme lately for the New Yorkers. Since the start of November, the Giants have 14 giveaways in seven games, and the Jets have turned the ball over 15 times in seven contests. However, the Jets have been better at forcing turnovers, racking up eight takeaways in the past three games, while the Giants have just four total takeaways in their past four contests.

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Week 16 Preview: Chargers at Lions

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-7)

at DETROIT LIONS (9-5)


Kickoff: Saturday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -3, Total: 50

Two teams peaking at just the right time square off Saturday in Detroit when the Chargers visit the Lions.

San Diego is in the midst of its annual December surge, absolutely blowing away its past three opponents. The Chargers outscored the Jaguars, Bills and Ravens by a combined total of 109-38, and they’re now 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS over the past three regular seasons in December/January. A big reason has been the improved play of the o-line, which added much-needed LT Jared Gaither after he was bafflingly cut by Kansas City. San Diego should be able to counter the strength of the Lions’ defense, the front four. The pick here is for underdog SAN DIEGO to pull out a fourth straight win.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also works against the Lions:

Play Against - Favorites (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (35-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*).

San Diego’s improved offensive line has also allowed QB Philip Rivers and RB Ryan Mathews to thrive. Rivers has thrown 8 TD and 0 INT in his past four games with the added time in the pocket, and Mathews has rushed for 453 yards (5.6 YPC) in this same four-game span with the big holes being created by his linemen. With the way the Detroit defense has been playing, both Rivers and Mathews should have little trouble gaining yards. In the past five games, the Lions have surrendered 29.6 PPG and 419 total YPG (281 passing, 138 rushing). And they don’t figure to be able to capitalize on San Diego mistakes since the Chargers have only one turnover in their past four contests.

But the Lions should also be able to move up and down the field, especially through the air. With a banged-up secondary, the Chargers could have trouble matching up with Detroit’s explosive passing game. QB Matthew Stafford is averaging 296 YPG with a 33/14 TD/INT ratio, and has thrown for 618 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in his past two games. Detroit won both of these contests in dramatic fashion, edging the Vikings 34-28 and then completing a fourth-quarter comeback to overtake Oakland 28-27. The Lions have all but given up trying to run the football, gaining just 216 yards on 62 carries (3.5 YPC) over the past three weeks. San Diego’s run defense has been subpar though, allowing 126 rushing YPG this year (21st in NFL). The Chargers have given up just 185 rushing yards in the past two games, but opponents have gained 5.4 YPC in this span.

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Week 16 Preview: Texans at Colts

HOUSTON TEXANS (10-4)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-13)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -6, Total: 40.5

Houston seeks its first win ever in Indianapolis Thursday night when the AFC South foes square off at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Texans have lost all nine trips to Indy by an average score of 33-17. The Colts finally got in the win column last week, but a second straight victory will be a tall order. Their nightmare season started with a 34-7 loss in Houston, which was playing without Arian Foster. The Texans have simply run it down Indy’s throats the past two years, averaging 173 rushing YPG and 5.3 YPC over three meetings. Considering the Colts’ inability to stop the run all season, Houston should have little trouble running it. And with the Texans staunch defense, Indianapolis will have major problems moving the football. The play here is HOUSTON to finally leave Indiana with a sizable victory.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Texans:

Play On - Road teams (HOUSTON) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points. (30-11 since 1983.) (73.2%, +17.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. (42-17 since 1983.) (71.2%, +23.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The Texans have thrived away from home this year, going 5-2 (SU and ATS), and outscoring opponents by 8.3 PPG on the road. But three uncharacteristic turnovers cost them dearly in Sunday’s 28-13 home loss to the Panthers. Foster had one of those turnovers, fumbling on the opening drive of the game, which marked his third lost fumble in four weeks. But Foster also rushed for 109 yards on 6.8 YPC against Carolina, and added another 58 yards receiving. And he absolutely dominated the Colts in two meetings last year, rumbling for 333 yards (6.9 YPC) and four touchdowns in the two games versus Indy. He and Ben Tate (846 rush yds, 5.5 YPC) should be able to run all over a Colts run defense ranked 28th in the NFL (139 YPG). QB T.J. Yates had a poor performance against Carolina (19-for-30, 212 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT), but he could also find success against an Indy pass defense allowing 274 passing YPG in the past three contests. He will not have the services of his best wideout though, as Andre Johnson remains out with a hamstring injury.

The Colts offense has found a little more stability since QB Dan Orlovsky took over for Curtis Painter, leading his team to a 3-0 ATS mark in his three starts. However, the Colts were outgained by 101 yards in Sunday’s win (388 to 287), and 80 of those yards came on a late touchdown run by RB Donald Brown, who finished the day with 161 rushing yards. But Brown will be up against Houston’s fifth-ranked run defense (97 YPG), which had held 11 straight opponents under 120 rushing yards before Carolina rumbled for 166 against them last week. But the Texans are even stronger in defending the pass, ranking second in the NFL with 181 passing YPG allowed. Colts star WR Reggie Wayne should be Orlovsky’s top option in the passing game since he has dominated Houston in the past. In 19 career meetings, Wayne has 109 receptions for 1,417 yards and 11 TD.

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Indianapolis Colts And Houston Texans Thursday Night

History will tell you that an AFC South clash between the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Field would lead to an easy victory for the hosts. The Texans will try to rewrite history Thursday night and pick up their very first victory in Indianapolis.

Kickoff is set for a little past 8:20 p.m. (ET) on the NFL Network. Early NFL odds maade the Colts 6½-point home underdogs with a 40½-point total.

The Texans (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) had a little dose of reality last week when they were beaten by the Carolina Panthers. The 28-13 defeat was the worst loss of the season and the first by a team that will certainly finish the year below .500.

Still, Houston knows it has the AFC South title under its belt, and the Texans are still in the running for a first-round bye in the playoffs. However, more slips like the one that the team took last week will end any of those hopes.

Arian Foster topped the 1,000-yard mark on the ground in the loss to Carolina with his sixth 100-yard effort of the season. Ben Tate needs 154 yards to reach the 1,000-yard barrier as well. These two backs make up the second ranked rush offense in the game at 151.8 YPG.

Week 15 was definitely one that was out of character for Houston, but one could argue that it was even more unusual for the Colts (1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS). They won their first game of the season by beating the fading Tennessee Titans 27-13.

It was really the third straight good game for Dan Orlovsky, who has led the Colts to three covers in a row after Indy was just 2-9 ATS in the first 11 games of the season under the direction of Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter.

Indianapolis is still only averaging 281.6 YPG this season, No. 31 in the league, but at least Orlovsky has given the team a bit of a boost. He has 693 passing yards and four scores against two INTs in his three starts, and has led the squad to 61 points in those contests. The Colts only scored 63 points from October 16 through November 27, a span of six games.

Even the ground game has picked up just a bit. Donald Brown rushed for 161 yards and a TD on 16 carries in last week's win against Tennessee.

Of course, the Titans have had a defense that has been wildly inconsistent this year, and that unit won't be on the field this week. Houston's defense may have had a bad game last week, but it is still only allowing 277.9 YPG and 16.9 PPG, making it one of the best units in the NFL this season.

The Texans might have that brutal 0-9 SU mark here in Indianapolis, but they are a relatively respectable 4-5 ATS in that stretch. They did win the first meeting of the year between these two teams by a 34-7 margin at Reliant Stadium.

Houston wraps up no worse than the third seed in the AFC playoffs with a victory. A win would also clinch the Texans' best season in division play, as they would move to 5-0 with a game against the Titans in Week 17.

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Tennessee Titans Face Must-Win Versus Jaguars

The postseason hopes for the Tennessee Titans are on the line this week when they engage in an NFL betting battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

LP Field in Nashville will be the site of this Week 16 matchup, which kicks off at 1:00 p.m. (ET) on Christmas Eve. There will be live television coverage regionally on CBS.

The Titans (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) really took a crippling blow to their playoff chances last week when they were beaten by the previously winless Indianapolis Colts. It was a game that Tennessee absolutely should have won, as it was a 6½-point favorite in the tussle.

The end result now sees Tennessee a game outside of the playoff race alongside a herd of other teams with two games to play. The Titans obviously are going to need to win both this game and a Week 17 tussle with the Houston Texans just to think about competing for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC.

It isn't often that a team has a quarterback controversy brewing in Week 16 of the season, but that's where the Titans are. Jake Locker has come in off of the bench to replace Matt Hasselbeck in each of the last two weeks. The rookie has played well, throwing for 390 yards and two TDs without getting picked off.

In total, Locker has completed 51.5 percent of his passes for 542 yards with four TDs, and he has rushed for 56 yards and a score.

Mel Tucker has had his work cut out for him taking over as the interim coach of a bad Jacksonville team. The Jaguars (4-10 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) did come up with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago, but aside from that, the other two games with Tucker in charge have been a bit of a disaster. The Jags were blasted by the San Diego Chargers 38-14 in Week 13 and are coming off a 41-14 embarrassment vs. the Atlanta Falcons this past Thursday.

To say that this offense has been anemic this year would be an understatement. The squad has only scored more than 20 points in a game once this season, and ranks dead last in the league at 256.3 YPG.

Blaine Gabbert needs 76 yards to reach the 2,000-yard mark in his first season. However, his passing game ranks last in football, and he doesn't have a receiver that has anywhere near 500 yards on the season.

In fact, the only player on this offense that has done anything notable all campaign is Maurice Jones-Drew. He already has 294 carries on the season, and is leading the league in rushing with 1,334 yards.

Week 1 saw Jacksonville knock off the Titans, 16-14. It was the second straight win both SU and ATS for the Jags. However, since 2001, Tennessee owns the 12-8 SU and ATS advantage over its divisional foe.

It won't quite be a white Christmas in the Volunteer State, though it could be if the thermometer dropped another 20 degrees this weekend. Expect some rain, as there are showers in the forecast, and temperatures are expected to top out in the low-50s.

Tennessee opened up as a nine-point favorite, and it almost immediately moved up to -9½. The Week 16 odds in this one feature a 40½-point total for NFL bettors.

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Bengals And Cardinals Battle In Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals are both coming off wins on Sunday that kept them alive in their quest for the playoffs. However, only one of them can obviously keep that momentum going with a victory when the teams meet Saturday in Cincinnati in a key Week 16 matchup.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Cincinnati opened as a 5½-point home favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 40. Early action has come in on Arizona, pushing the line down to +4½.

The Bengals (8-6) had lost four of five games before beating the St. Louis Rams 20-13 while the Cardinals (7-7) have won four straight and six of seven following a six-game losing streak. Arizona needed overtime to top the Cleveland Browns 20-17 on Sunday, the team’s third game in the past seven that required an extra session to decide the outcome.

The Cardinals have rallied behind quarterback John Skelton, who is 4-1 as a starter while replacing the injured Kevin Kolb. Skelton has topped the 300-yard mark twice during that stretch, including a 313-yard performance against the Browns.

Kolb suffered a concussion very early on in a Week 11 win against the San Francisco 49ers and has been hampered by injuries throughout his first year with the team. Skelton filled in after Kolb left the game against the 49ers and led Arizona to a 21-19 victory.

The Cardinals are one of four teams at 7-7 and need to win out and have the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons lose their last two games to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card playoff spot in the NFC.

Cincinnati gets to finish the regular season out with two home games and has a slightly better chance to qualify for a Wild Card berth in the AFC. The team is tied with the New York Jets for the final playoff spot in the conference but would currently lose the tiebreaker.

The Jets have an equally tough road with a home game against the New York Giants on Saturday followed by a visit to the Miami Dolphins in the regular-season finale.

The Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens in their season finale with the AFC North title possibly up for grabs. The Ravens are battling the Pittsburgh Steelers for the top spot while Cincinnati would love nothing more than to knock out a New York team that won a regular-season meeting in the finale two years ago and then beat the Bengals again in the playoffs a week later.

Cincinnati is hoping rookie wide receiver A.J. Green will be available against the Cardinals after he suffered a Grade 3 sprain of the right AC joint in his shoulder in the win over St. Louis. Green went over the 1,000-yard mark for the Bengals with 115 yards on six catches against the Rams and has vowed to play the last two games despite the injury.

The weather forecast for Saturday in Cincinnati calls for a high temperature in the low 40s with a 30 percent chance of occasional rain showers.

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Playoff-Focused Patriots Host Miami Dolphins

The New England Patriots have already clinched the AFC East Division and are looking for a whole lot more when they host the Miami Dolphins on Saturday afternoon.

The spread for this Week 16 contest has just opened and New England is a 10½-point favorite with an NFL betting total of 48½-points.

CBS will have the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium. There are 13 games on Saturday with Christmas falling on Sunday. The only game on Sunday will be Chicago at the formerly perfect Packers at night.

The Patriots (11-3 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) can get the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye by winning their last two games. Next week will be home to Buffalo as big ‘chalk’ again. They can get the top seed by winning out and one loss by Pittsburgh in its final three games, including tonight at San Fran as 3-point ‘dogs.

Coach Bill Belichick’s bunch has quietly won six games in a row, stopping Tim Tebow-mania for at least one week with a 41-23 win as 7-point favorites. Denver jumped out to a 16-7 lead, but had three costly fumbles in the second quarter and trailed 27-16 at halftime.

Tebow actually looked pretty good passing with 194 yards, rushing for 93 more. Tom Brady was his normal brilliant self with 320 passing yards, 129 of them to tight end Aaron Hernandez. The offense is scoring 35.8 PPG during the current winning streak (31.2 PPG for the season) and certainly can’t be afforded gift turnovers.

The 64 combined points scored last game went way ‘over’ the 47½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Patriots last four games, with the defense allowing 23.5 PPG.

The Patriots are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home, only covering one of their last four. The last one at Gillette was on December 4, a 31-24 win over Indianapolis as whopping 20½-point favorites. The Colts outscored them 21-0 in the fourth quarter for the unlikely cover.

Miami (5-9 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) fired coach Tony Sparano last week and named Todd Bowles as interim coach. The 48-year-old Bowles may have little shot of getting the full time gig, but he still wants to impress owner Stephen Ross and did get a win (30-23) in his debut at Buffalo yesterday.

That game was not as close as the final score indicates, leading 30-13 with under three minutes remaining. Quarterback Matt Moore shook off a head/neck injury to throw for 217 yards, two TDs and no picks (122.3 rating). Reggie Bush ran for a career-high 203 yards and has now gone over the 100-yard mark the last three games.

Bowles will not have trouble getting his guys to play hard. After all, they didn’t quit after starting the season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS). They’re 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. The only stinker was a 26-10 home loss against Philly two games ago, giving Ross the excuse he wanted to fire Sparano.

Bush is sure to get around 20 carries this week and his eyes are lighting up after New England ’s run defense got gashed (252 yards) by Denver. However, New England’s run ‘D’ isn’t bad overall (117.6 YPG, ranked 19th) and should play with a chip on its shoulder this week.

The better Miami matchup is Moore throwing against the league’s worst pass defense (297 YPG). Brandon Marshall (1,021 yards) will be a problem for whoever covers him. Tight end Anthony Fasano should find holes in the middle of the field, especially with safety Patrick Chung (foot) out since Nov. 6 and questionable again. Pass-rusher Andre Carter (10 sacks) was also lost for the year after getting injured last game.

Miami’s key injury has offensive tackle Jake Long (back) questionable after missing last game.

Getting the warm-weather Dolphins to come north to New England late in the year used to be an automatic win. However, Miami played very tough with below-freezing temperatures and snow flurries in Buffalo. Weather on Saturday should be in the 30s, but with no precipitation.

New England is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against Miami the last six meetings. Opening week in South Beach was a 38-24 Pats win as 7-point favorites. Chad Henne was Miami’s quarterback and had 416 passing yards, but Brady answered with a team-record 517.

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KC Chiefs Out To Complete Sweep Of Oakland Raiders

Last season we saw the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West with a 7-9 record and become the first team to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 mark. It was indeed a strange occurrence, made even stranger when Seattle hosted defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans in the first round of postseason action...and won.

If a 7-9 team making the playoffs and dethroning a Super Bowl champ seemed bizarre, then hold on to your hats because things could get even weirder this year, and once again it's the wild, wild west providing the story.

Try this on for size: All four teams in the AFC West could be on collision courses with 8-8 records. Indeed, the chips have to fall just right, but it's a very real possibility and might all hinge on the outcome of this Sunday's matchup in Kansas City between the Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.

The longtime rivals will kick things off at Arrowhead Stadium this Saturday a little past 1:00 p.m. (ET). Opening odds listed the Chiefs 1-point favorites with some shops making the game a pick 'em. The Don Best odds screen has the total in the 42-43 point span.

If you think the odds of four 8-8 teams in the same division seem very long, remember that entering play this past week, the notion seemed an impossibility. What made it appear out of the question was a 5-8 Kansas City squad taking on the 13-0 Green Bay Packers who were favored by 11½ vs. the Chiefs.

Kansas City's upset victory wasn't really as close as the 19-14 final score might suggest. The Chiefs dominated the clock, keeping Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers offense off the field, and pressured Rodgers and that same offense all afternoon when they did have the ball.

Given how KC was playing entering the game, it's a wonder the Chiefs weren't even bigger underdogs. The Chiefs had dropped five of their previous six contests, resulting in the firing of head coach Todd Haley just six days before battling Green Bay, and the only win in that span was a 10-3 triumph over a Chicago Bears outfit that has really dirtied its collective knickers the last month.

Romeo Crennel got the ceremonial cooler dump in his first outing as KC's interim head coach, and Tamba Hali recorded three of the Chiefs' four sacks, more than double what the defense was averaging entering the game. A banged-up Packers offensive line contributed heavily to that statistic.

Almost lost in the news of the Packers' first loss was the fine play of Kansas City's Kyle Orton in his first start for the team since being picked up following his release from Denver. Orton was an efficient 23-for-31 through the air, falling just short of the 300-yard mark.

The irony of Orton's performance was it came the same day his replacement in Denver, Tim Tebow, finally ran out of magic. With a trip to Mile High City on deck after this game with Oakland, Orton's biggest challenge this week might be to not think too far ahead to possible revenge against his former employer.

Then again, the Raiders defense might not present much of a challenge at all. Oakland comes into the game in the throes of a 3-game losing streak and having allowed 36 points per game in that span. The latest setback was at home vs. the Detroit Lions who rallied from a 13-point hole in the final eight minutes for a 28-27 victory. Oakland had one last chance to win it in the end, but Lions DT Ndamukong Suh got just enough of his big paw on a long field goal attempt to deny Sebastian Janikowski from being the hero.

Shutting down Carson Palmer and the Raiders offense will now be the focus for Crennel and the Chiefs. That might not seem too difficult having just stifled the Packers, but Oakland's offense wasn't really the issue in the loss to Detroit. One key for Oakland will be getting Michael Bush and the running game going early. Bush ran for 99 yards on 17 carries when the two teams met in Week 7.

Crennel and the Kansas City defense certainly had the Raiders' number in that matchup, a 28-0 whitewashing by the Chiefs in Oakland. That was Palmer's first game with the Black and Silver, and he threw three interceptions in rusty relief of Kyle Boller who also tossed three picks. Each QB had one interception go the other way for KC touchdowns.

The Chiefs were 3½-point underdogs in October, with the win and cover leaving the teams 5-5 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in head-to-head battles dating to Dec. 2006. The only real trend in this series is the 'under' which has cashed eight of the 10 contests. If the current 42-43 point total holds, it will be higher than all but one of those tilts. The number closed at 41 earlier this campaign.

A 30 percent shot at snow is in the forecast for Friday afternoon and evening in the Paris of the Plains. Those chances drop on Saturday when temps aren't expected to climb much above freezing under partly cloudy skies.

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Washington Redskins Make Ready For Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins may not have much to play for on Saturday, but bettors will find something appealing about one of these teams.

The Redskins (5-9) have stayed competitive recently despite losing three of their past five games, going 4-1 against the spread during that stretch. The same can’t be said for the Vikings (2-12), who have lost six straight and gone 1-4-1 ATS since their bye in Week 9.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Washington opened as a 5½-point home favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up to -6½ at some sports books while the total is 44.

Washington is coming off an impressive 23-10 road victory against the New York Giants on Sunday, completing a series sweep that started with a 28-14 win in the season opener. The Redskins have had an up-and-down year with Rex Grossman as the starting quarterback, but he has somehow found a way to generate enough offense to keep them in games. They are averaging 23.2 points in their last five with Grossman throwing seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Minnesota has not been so lucky with rookie QB Christian Ponder under center. Ponder has led the Vikings to just one victory in eight starts since taking over for ineffective veteran Donovan McNabb, who was later put on waivers. He has thrown 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with half of the picks taking place in the past three games.

Ponder saw running back Adrian Peterson return to the Minnesota lineup on Sunday for the first time in a month against the New Orleans Saints, who scored four straight touchdowns to turn a one-point game in a 42-20 rout. Peterson carried the ball just 10 times for 60 yards, including a 39-yard scamper early in the second quarter when he had three straight touches for 48 of those yards.

The Vikings have seen the 'over' cash in seven of their last nine games, including three straight. The total has also gone 'over' in four of five for Washington after going 'under' in seven of eight with the Redskins going 2-6 ATS in those games. They are just 8-22-3 ATS in their past 33 games against teams with a losing record, and Minnesota has won four of the last six meetings straight-up after dropping the previous four in the series.

Cold and drizzly is the forecast for the nation's capital this Saturday. The weatherman is listing a 40 percent chance of showers in the area with the afternoon high just making it into the mid-to-upper 40s.

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Cam Newton, Panthers Host Struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the young Carolina Panthers could finish games more consistently, they would be a factor in the NFC playoff race. Instead, the Panthers (5-9) find themselves on the outside looking in with an opportunity to simply extend the losing streak of another NFC South team on Saturday when they host the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10).

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Carolina opened as a 7-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has seen some early betting action move the line to -7½ at some sports books with the total moving down from 49 to 48.

The Panthers have led in 13 of their 14 games this season, but have not played particularly well in the second half, especially the fourth quarter. In their last two losses, they led the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions by double digits at halftime only to get outscored 59-8 after the intermission.

Carolina just snapped a seven-game winning streak for the playoff-bound Houston Texans with a big 28-13 road win last Sunday though and appears to have an easier task in Week 16. Tampa Bay has dropped eight straight games, going 1-7 against the spread during that stretch.

The Bucs turned in a dismal performance at home last Saturday in a 31-15 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, trailing 28-0 at halftime before scoring all of their points in the third quarter. They only advanced into Dallas territory once in the fourth quarter and saw the total slip ‘under’ for just the second time in their past six games.

Tampa Bay was crushed at home by the Panthers 38-19 in Week 13 and will try to avoid a series sweep, which has occurred between the teams in the previous two years. Carolina outscored the Buccaneers 14-7 in the second half after building a 24-12 halftime lead and took advantage of backup quarterback Josh Johnson filling in for starter Josh Freeman due to a shoulder injury.

Freeman’s regression has been one of the main reasons Tampa has been such a disappointment this year. He has thrown 13 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in 13 games after totaling 25 and six, respectively, in a full season a year ago.

The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the teams, but the Panthers are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against divisional opponents. Carolina has won three of four overall both straight-up and ATS following a 2-8 start. The Bucs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 1-5 in their true home games.

The high temperature on Saturday in Tampa Bay is expected to reach 80 under partly cloudy skies.

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Giants And Jets Meet In NFL Armageddon

The Saturday NFL Armageddon between the Jets and Giants and will have a lot more riding on it than just who is ‘King of New York.’

The Jets are between 2½-3 point favorites with a total of 46 points. They are the home team at shared MetLife Stadium, but there should be plenty of Giants fans who get their hands on tickets. FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Jets (8-6 straight up, 6-8 against the spread) are coming off an embarrassing 45-19 loss at Philadelphia as 3-point ‘dogs. They’re currently tied with Cincinnati for the AFC’s last wild-card, but should advance with tiebreakers if they win Saturday and at Miami in Week 17. They can possibly get in with a 9-7 SU mark, but would need help.

Coach Rex Ryan has already started his pre-game tough talk, saying he has the better team. The Jets players have mostly responded well to his past bravado, making the AFC title game in his first two seasons, although few remember they ‘back-doored’ their way into the 2009 postseason.

The Giants (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) should feel more humiliated than the Jets after a 23-10 loss to Washington last Sunday. Not only were they home as 5½-point favorites, but it resulted in a season-sweep against underwhelming quarterback Rex Grossman.

The G-Men are just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) in their last six games, with the win a miracle comeback at Dallas (37-34) two weeks ago. They remarkably still control their own destiny in the NFC East. It will require winning out with the Cowboys visiting the final week. The Giants are already eliminated from wild-card contention, so Saturday is a season-saver.

Coach Tom Coughlin has the polar opposite personality of Ryan, keeping most of his verbiage to ‘coach-speak,’ but he also hasn’t had Ryan’s recent late-season success. The Giants have made the playoffs just once since their 2007 Super Bowl run, going 7-11 SU (8-10 ATS) in December and January combined. He will likely be fired with a loss.

The Jets game-plan will be to run the ball and protect Mark Sanchez, neither of which was done against Philly. The quarterback was harassed and sacked four times, plus suffered a neck injury (listed as probable).

Running back Shonn Greene had 73 yards last game on 18 attempts (4.1 per carry). He averaged 98.3 yards on 5.0 yards per carry the prior three games, wins over Kansas City (37-10), Washington (34-19) and Buffalo (27-24).

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Jets last four games and 4-0 in their last four at home.

Sanchez hasn’t thrown for more than 181 yards in his last four contests, but that’s fine as long as he doesn’t turn it over like last week (two picks and one fumble).

The Giants game-plan will rely on the NFL’s third-ranked passing attack (299 YPG). Eli Manning easily had his worst quarterback rating of the year last game (45.5) with three picks and no TDs. He didn’t get much help from his receivers with dropped balls and wrong routes.

Manning has shown a flair for the dramatic with fourth quarter comebacks, but needs a consistent effort for all four quarters. Tight end Jake Ballard (knee) got hurt last game and is expected out. Backup Travis Beckum (chest) is also questionable. That’s big news as the Jets are vulnerable in the middle of the field with safety Jim Leonhard out for the season.

Manning will be forced to throw to his wide receiver trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, who are talented. However, the Jets play very well in man coverage at cornerback and the windows to throw into will be tight. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw should get more carries than bruising Brandon Jacobs as the Jets have more trouble with shiftier backs.

The Giants are also expected to be without defensive end Osi Umenyiora (ankle). He hasn’t played since Nov. 28 and the pass rush has slowed outside of Jason Pierre-Paul (13.5 sacks) as Justin Tuck (toe) is also playing banged up.

These teams have played just four times since 1996 with the Giants 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three. The Jets haven’t won since 1993 when Boomer Esiason was at quarterback.

Saturday weather should be in the 40s with a few showers possible.

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Pittsburgh Steelers Host Rams On Short Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers are saddled with a bad time to have a short week as they host the St. Louis Rams on Saturday afternoon.

Pittsburgh has still opened as 16-point favorites with a low NFL betting total of 37½ points for the matchup. FOX will have the coverage at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Heinz Field.

The Steelers (10-4 straight up, 6-8 against the spread) played a physical game on Monday night in San Francisco, a 20-3 loss as 3-point underdogs. That means they’ll have just four days rest instead of a typical six, plus have to deal with jet lag after flying back from the West Coast.

Injuries are an even bigger concern with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger playing though a high ankle sprain. Big Ben came up small in San Fran with three interceptions and a fumble, the 52.3 QB rating his lowest this season. He was somehow able to throw for 330 yards in a gutty effort clearly affected by the injury.

Coach Mike Tomlin has a decision to make. Pittsburgh has secured at least a wild card, but needs to win out and get a Baltimore loss to take the AFC North. Roethlisberger could be sat this week for Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon to try to get healthy for the playoffs, but that’s extremely unlikely.

The defense continues to play hard and held San Fran to just 287 total yards and the 20 points despite the four turnovers. James Harrison will return from his 1-game league suspension, but fellow linebacker LaMarr Woodley is questionable after re-injuring his hamstring.

Pittsburgh is second in the NFL in points allowed (15.6 PPG) and has been even better the last four games (9.8 PPG). The ‘under’ is 4-0 in that span with the offense only averaging 16.3 PPG with Roethlisberger previously dealing with a thumb injury.

The Steelers are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at Heinz Field, with the loss coming versus Baltimore (23-20) on November 6. Running back Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 4.6 yards per carry at home, compared to just 2.8 away, and feeding him the ball makes tons of sense giving Roethlisberger’s health.

This is a very proud and resilient team, 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven games following a defeat.

St. Louis (2-12 SU, 2-11-1 ATS) continued its miserable season with a 20-13 home loss to the previously reeling Cincinnati Bengals. There was at least a ‘push’ of the 7-point spread after a late touchdown, although the ATS mark is still the NFL’s worst.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo will almost certainly be shown the door at season-end and the same for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The latter could reunite with Scott Pioli in Kansas City in the same capacity despite directing the NFL’s worst offense (11.9 PPG).

That offense is the main reason for the ‘under’ going 8-3 in St. Louis’ last 11 games.

While Spagnuolo will be desperately trying to win Saturday, most fans are thinking the opposite. The Colts' win last week opens the door some for the Rams or Vikings to get the No. 1 pick and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. St. Louis would likely trade it after drafting Sam Bradford two years ago, but would get a bounty in return.

Bradford (ankle) will almost definitely miss his second consecutive game and backup A.J. Feeley (thumb) is questionable. Kellen Clemens had good stats (95.7 QB rating) last week after getting picked off the scrap heap, but only engineered six points until garbage time. Going against the Steelers in their place will be a much tougher challenge.

Running back Steven Jackson had 71 rushing yards last week and was the leading receiver with 72. Getting him the ball as much as possible is the best course of action, but Pitt will be zoned in on him. The team lacks a big play receiver with no one over 554 yards and Clemens will likely be running for his life with his offensive line allowing a league-high 49 sacks this season.

The Rams have has been bad both home and away. They’re 1-6 SU and ATS on the road with the last two blowout defeats at Seattle (30-13) and San Francisco (26-0).

There’s not a lot of history between these teams with Pittsburgh 2-1 SU and ATS in the three meetings since 1996. The ‘over’ is 3-0.

Weather could have some rain and snow showers, but temperatures won’t be too bad at around 40 degrees. That’s decent news for the Rams who play their home games in a dome.

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Baltimore Ravens Home To Battle Cleveland Browns

So far this season, the Baltimore Ravens have literally been an unstoppable team at home. They'll look to finish out a perfect regular season at M&T Bank Stadium and move one step closer towards guaranteeing themselves their first AFC North title since 2006 on Saturday afternoon when they welcome in the Cleveland Browns.

The NFL betting lines for this divisional duel will be on the board until December 24 at 1:00 p.m. (ET), and you can catch all of the festivities regionally on CBS.

It is clear that the Ravens (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) missed out on a big time chance to move up the ladder in the AFC playoff race last week. Coming into their Sunday Night Football tussle with the San Diego Chargers in Week 15, they knew that three wins would lock up the top seed in the AFC and home field advantage. That would have been incredibly important for a team that is not just 7-0 SU here at M&T Bank Stadium, but also 4-2-1 ATS, including going 3-0-1 ATS against AFC playoff contenders.

Bur following a loss to the Chargers, Baltimore now needs some help to get the top seed in the form of at least one loss by both the New England Patriots and Houston Texans, as well as winning these final two games.

An upset loss on Saturday would be crippling for the Ravens, as they could fall behind the Pittsburgh Steelers for the top spot in the AFC North. Any combination of two wins or Pittsburgh losses would give Baltimore the division title. Anything less makes it the No. 5 seed and sends the Ravens on the road once again for the postseason.

Cleveland (4-10 SU, 5-7-2 ATS) is just playing out the string on the season, and is evaluating talent going forward into 2011.

Colt McCoy is likely to sit out a second straight game with a concussion, which will likely leave Seneca Wallace in charge of the offense. Wallace played well in last week's frustrating overtime loss at the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for 226 yards and a TD and rushing for 21 yards.

Though the offense is dreadful, averaging just 13.9 PPG which ranks 30th in the league, the defense is what is probably going to kill Clevelend in this one. This unit ranks dead last in the AFC and No. 31 in the league in rush defense, allowing 145.4 YPG.

Ray Rice has to be licking his chops. He rushed for a season-high 204 yards against the Browns just three weeks ago in the Dawg Pound. Now, the former Rutgers Scarlet Knight has 1,086 yards as a rusher and 648 more as a receiver, and has a total of a dozen scores on the campaign.

The Ravens have won seven straight in this series dating back to 2007, and are 6-1 ATS in that stretch.

This week, Baltimore is given the tough task of covering a whopping 13-point spread. The total is rather low at 38½, but it is likely justified when you look at the weather forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s, with showers and windy conditions possible.

Next week, the Ravens travel to the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Browns close out their season against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cleveland.

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Chargers And Lions Meet With Playoffs On Line

Teams from all across the NFL will be paying attention intently to the Week 16 showdown in Motown between the Detroit Lions and the San Diego Chargers. These two teams are both still fighting to get into the postseason in their respective conferences, and the battles should be fierce.

Kickoff from Ford Field is set for Christmas Eve at 4:05 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage of the NFL betting festivities on CBS.

The Lions are favored by 1½-points on the NFL Week 16 odds, while the total sits at 52, up from the 50½ at the start of the week.

The Chargers (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) have caught some fire. They have won three games in a row both SU and ATS, and they have dominated their foes, outscoring them by the aggregate score of 109-38.

However, San Diego still needs a heck of a lot of help to get into the postseason. It needs the Denver Broncos to lose twice to end the regular season just to have a shot to get into the playoffs. If the Bolts win twice and get two Denver losses to win the AFC West at 9-7, they will be just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs in a season in which they lost six games in a row.

Philip Rivers has had a real renaissance over these last few weeks. He averaged 291.9 YPG through the air with 16 TDs against 17 INTs in his first 11 games of the season. Though his passing yard average over the last three weeks has been down a bit at 268.0 YPG, he has completed more than 72 percent of his passes in all three games – something that he had only done once prior to that this year – and he has seven scores without an interception.

Needless to say, Jim Schwartz has to be worried about this game for his Lions (9-5 SU, 6-6-2 ATS). They barely survived last week with a win at the Oakland Raiders, and it was probably the game that saved their season. There are essentially six teams fighting for two Wild Card slots right now in the NFC, and knowing that a trip to Lambeau Field is waiting in Week 17, another loss would be devastating. Odds have it, 9-7 won't be good enough for Detroit to get into the postseason.

The ground game is terrible for the Lions, as they are only averaging 97.4 YPG running the football, No. 28 in the league. Jahvid Best only played in six games this year, and even though he has been on IR for over a month, he remains the team's leading rusher with just 390 yards, and will probably stay that way through the end of the season.

That being said, this is definitely a passing game that most secondaries want no part of. Matthew Stafford is having the year of his career. He has thrown for 4,145 yards and 33 TDs against 14 INTs, and he is most likely going to end up at the Pro Bowl.

One man that is absolutely going to the Pro Bowl is Calvin Johnson, Stafford's top receiver. who has 81 grabs for 1,335 yards and 14 TDs on the campaign.

The Chargers are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games, but have a great history in this series. Detroit is 0-4 SU and ATS against San Diego since 1996, and the last time these two teams played, the Chargers won 51-14 in 2007.

That being said, a heck of a lot has obviously changed for both teams. San Diego is no longer as dominating, while Detroit is finally competent again.