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**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2011, 08:07 PM

Denver Broncos In Buffalo To Meet Skidding Bills

Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos hope to get their magical run back on track in Buffalo against the Bills this Saturday after losing big to New England last Sunday.

Denver is currently a 3-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Saturday’s game starts at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on CBS.

Still holding a one-game lead over the slumping Oakland Raiders and the surging San Diego Chargers, the Broncos control their own destiny in the AFC West. To hold on to that lead, Denver will need to extend Buffalo’s current losing streak to eight straight games.

Buffalo (5-9) started the season strong at 5-2 SU (4-2-1 ATS), but have since fallen into a tailspin with seven straight losses, going just 1-6 over that span. With a road trip to New England looming next week, the Bills have to look at this game as their best remaining chance to win a game before the 2011 season comes to a close.

Multiple factors have contributed to lead Buffalo into this collapse. Ryan Fitzpatrick signed a six-year, $59 million contract extension just two days before beating Washington. Including the Washington win, Fitzpatrick was 5-2 SU and had a 14-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio; since then, he’s 0-7 SU with an 8-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The other pertinent issues have been in the running game, both on offense and defense. Since Fred Jackson went down for the season in Week 10, the running game has been serviceable (99.75 yards per game), but is no longer a strength. The rushing defense is ranked 29th in the NFL allowing 139.5 yards per game; a particularly worrisome stat with the NFL’s top rushing team coming to town this week.

Denver (8-6) fell back to earth a bit last week as New England broke the Broncos’ six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and torched the Denver defense for 41 points. Since Tebow has taken over at quarterback, the defense has allowed 15 points or less in five of nine contests, but has now given up over 30 in two of Denver’s last three games.

Tim Tebow had a fairly good day against New England, passing for 194 yards and rushing for 93 with two touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough against the potent Patriots attack. The Broncos rushed for 252 yards as a team, bringing their NFL-best season average to 163.1 rushing yards per game. Miami's Reggie Bush just set a career high in rushing for 203 yards against the Bills last week; Denver’s offense is likely licking its chops.

The total for Saturday’s game is currently set at 42½. The total has gone ‘under’ in four of Denver’s last six games and in eight of Buffalo’s last 12 games at home.

Buffalo's forecast for Christmas Eve calls for an afternoon high in the upper-30s under partly cloudy skies. There is a chance for snow on Sunday, something to keep an eye on in case a white Christmas arrives a bit early.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2011, 08:09 PM

San Francisco 49ers Out To Sink Seattle Seahawks

Fresh off of their convincing win on Monday Night Fo
otball, the San Francisco 49ers head to Seattle on a short week to take on the Seahawks this Saturday afternoon.

Saturday’s game is set to kick off at 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX. San Francisco is currently a 3-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

San Francisco can clinch the NFC’s two-seed and the first-round bye that goes with it by winning its final two games of the season, this week against Seattle and next week against St. Louis. Seattle is still mathematically alive for a Wild Card spot, but will need help from around the league.

An interesting side story to this rivalry game is that San Francisco hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown all season (14 games) and Seattle’s running back Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. Something has to give this week.

Seattle (7-7) has already matched its regular season win total from last year, but it obviously won’t be enough to win the NFC West this time. The Seahawks are a long shot to make the playoffs at this point, but they have played some great football down the stretch with wins in five of their last six (both SU and ATS) including four outright upsets.

Lynch has been the catalyst to Seattle’s late season surge. The sixth-year back out of Cal entered last week’s game against Chicago averaging 117.6 yards per game in his previous six games. While he only rushed for 42 yards against Chicago, he did pick up two rushing touchdowns and Seattle went on to win 38-14 as a 3½-point road underdog.

San Francisco (11-3) had lost two of its last three games both SU and ATS, but the 49ers made a clear statement that they are still a legitimate playoff contender with a convincing 20-3 win over Pittsburgh Monday night. The win and cover brought San Fran to 11-2-1 ATS on the season, best of any team in the league.

The 49ers were outgained by 102 yards, but that didn’t matter as they won the turnover battle four-nil as the defense forced and recovered a fumble while also grabbing three interceptions. With a rushing defense giving up an NFL-low 71.5 yards per game and allowing no rushing touchdowns all season, the Niners have taken the run away from teams all year long and forced them to be one-dimensional on offense.

Add to that a great running back in Frank Gore and Alex Smith protecting the football – just five interceptions on the year – and you have a great recipe for success.

Whoever wins the battle between Lynch and the San Francisco rushing defense will likely win the game as well.

These two rivals have been extremely evenly matched in recent years, both at 5-5 SU and ATS against each other over their last 10 games.

San Francisco has trended ‘under’ on total bets this year at 8-6 while Seattle has trended ‘over’ on totals at 9-5. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Seattle’s last six games and ‘under’ in four of San Francisco’s last five. This Saturday’s total is currently set at 38.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2011, 08:10 PM

Scary Eagles On Road In Clash With Dallas Cowboys

Two weeks remain in the regular season, and the only thing we know for certain about the NFC East is the Washington Redskins will not be division champs.

That situation could begin to clear up a bit this Saturday – or the waters could become more muddied – when the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Christmas Eve clash is set for kickoff a little past 4:15 p.m. (ET) with FOX providing the broadcast.

The NFC East has resembled a commune during the 2011 campaign with all four teams spending time at the top of the standings at one point or another. Dallas (8-6 straight up, 5-8-1 against the spread) currently has the lead, but it's a cushion of just a game over the New York Giants with Philadelphia (6-8 SU & ATS) two back. Suggesting the Cowboys control their own destiny would be an accurate statement, yet one that carries such little weight given how inconsistent all four teams in the division have played through 15 weeks.

Philadelphia was supposed to control the division from start to finish after being lumped in with other Super Bowl favorites like Green Bay and New England before the 2011 season opened. The Eagles only spent one week in the division's penthouse following a Week 1 victory which was followed by four consecutive defeats. Last rites were delivered after a Thursday night loss in Seattle just two short NFL weeks ago left Philly 4-8.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the funeral home where 20 of the league's 32 teams will eventually find themselves in a couple of weeks. Well, not so funny to the Dolphins who the Eagles popped 26-10 in Week 14 as three-point road 'dogs, and certainly no laughing matter to the Jets last Sunday who were soundly thrashed by Philadelphia, 45-19. The Birds were favored by three in that one.

Suddenly, and despite that 6-8 record, the Eagles have been brought back to life. Not only that, but after the media piled on Andy Reid and his club for being the poster boys of underachievement, Philadelphia has become something of a chic pick to find a seat at the playoff table where they're projected to be a very dangerous group.

Even Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says that he is "scared" of the Eagles.

Yet to be heard from on the subject so far this week is Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan who showed no fear of the Eagles when the clubs prepared to meet near Halloween, predicting the Cowboys were going to do a little backside kicking on the "all-hype team." Perhaps Rob's brother Rex Ryan can pass on a few clues on what a true beating is after Rex's Jets went down in flames to Philadelphia this past Sunday.

Rob Ryan and the Cowboys really don't need any clues from the Jets on what it's like to get their rear ends handed to them by the Eagles. That Halloween meeting Rob was so confident entering play? Well, Philadelphia romped past Dallas, 34-7, to easily cover that three-point spread.

That triumph by the Eagles was their second straight in a series that has run in short spurts for each team. Before this two-game mini-streak by Philly, the Cowboys had won four straight; before that, the Eagles won three in a row. Meanwhile, the betting trends during the last 10 have been level at 5-5 ATS and 5-5 'over/under.' The totals have been switching back and forth, two to the 'over' followed by two to the 'under,' and if that holds true this Saturday, the current 50½-point mark will be exceeded.

Philadelphia scored all of its 34 points in the Week 8 get-together before Dallas finally got on the board. The Cowboys' lone score came on a fourth-quarter bomb from Tony Romo to Laurent Robinson. The Eagles dominated otherwise, with LeSean McCoy breaking loose for a career-best 185 yards and two touchdowns to lead the way. Michael Vick balanced things out through the air on a 21-for-28 afternoon that netted 256 more yards for the team.

Vick and McCoy led a similarly balanced effort in last week's win over the Jets, and they'll be testing a Cowboys defense that might be without two key players due to injuries. Linebacker DeMarcus Ware (neck) and nose tackle Jay Ratliff (ribs) are both questionable for Saturday's game, with updates on each player expected later this week.

The Dallas defense posted its best numbers of the season in last week's 38-15 win at Tampa Bay. The Cowboys limited the Buccaneers to just 190 total yards and seven first downs, keeping Tampa's offense out of the end zone for nearly all of the first three quarters. Rob Ryan's unit could be in for some early shock this week, however, adjusting to far more speed out of the Eagles than what was seen against the Bucs.

Tony Romo enjoyed a fine evening in Tampa as well and, except for his Thanksgiving Day effort, has been solid since the loss to the Eagles in late-October. Felix Jones has also stepped in the last two weeks for the injured DeMarco Murray, and kept the Dallas ground game in fine form. That 'over' is suddenly looking better and better.

As for Saturday's spread, the Cowboys are currently 2-2½ point favorites, though the line might be seen as nothing more than window dressing since neither team has proven it can be trusted to win a game straight up, much less cover points in the process.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2011, 08:15 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 16

December 20, 2011

Thursday, Dec. 22 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
HOU: 8-4 'over' L12 off loss
HOU: 5-1-1 ATS L7 vs division
IND: 1-7 ATS L8 home
IND: 6-1 'under' L7 overall

Saturday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
OAK: 6-1 'over' L7 overall
OAK: 6-3 ATS L9 away
KC: 8-1 'under' L9 overall
KC: 0-4 ATS L4 favorite

DEN: 6-1 ATS L7 away
DEN: 6-9 ATS L15 vs non-division
BUF: 1-6 ATS L7 overall
BUF: 3-6 ATS L9 home underdog

JAX: 1-7 ATS L8 away underdog
JAX: 7-0 'under' L7 off road loss
TEN: 8-0 'under' L8 overall
TEN: 7-2 ATS L9 off loss

ARZ: 2-5 ATS L7 vs AFC
ARZ: 4-7 ATS L11 'dog off win
CIN: 5-0-1 'over' L6 as favorite
CIN: 2-4 ATS L6 home

MIA: 7-1 ATS L8 overall
MIA: 4-6 ATS L10 vs division
NE: 7-3 'over' L10 home
NE: 1-5 ATS L6 9-pt favorite or more

CLE: 4-1 ATS L5 overall
CLE: 5-8-1 ATS L14 underdog
BAL: 2-5-1 ATS L8 favorite
BAL: 7-0 'over' L7 off loss

NYG: 2-6-1 ATS L9 vs AFC
NYG: 5-2 'over' L7 away
NYJ: 2-6 ATS L8 vs NFC
NYJ: 6-2 'over' L8 home

MIN: 7-2 'over' L9 overall
MIN: 4-7 ATS L11 vs non-division
WSH: 2-8-1 ATS L11 favorite
WSH: 3-6 ATS L9 vs non-division

TB: 1-7 ATS L8 overall
TB: 9-3 ATS L12 away underdog
CAR: 3-7 ATS L10 vs division
CAR: 5-3 ATS L8 home

STL: 2-11-1 ATS L14 overall
STL: 1-8 ATS L9 away
PIT: 3-8 TS L11 double-digit favorite
PIT: 5-3 ATS L8 vs NFC

Saturday, Dec. 24 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
SD: 2-5 ATS L7 vs NFC
SD: 7-1 'over' L8 away
DET: 10-5 ATS L15 home
DET: 6-1 'over' L7 vs AFC

Saturday, Dec. 24 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
SFO: 7-2 'under' L9 overall
SFO: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
SEA: 7-2 ATS L9 home
SEA: 9-3 ATS L12 vs division

PHI: 4-1 ATS L5 away underdog
PHI: 7-3 ATS L10 vs division
DAL: 3-10 ATS L13 favorite
DAL: 0-6 ATS L6 vs division

Sunday, Dec. 25 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
CHI: 5-2 'over' L7 overall
CHI: 3-6-1 ATS L10 underdog
GB: 6-2 ATS L8 off loss
GB: 9-2 ATS L11 home

Monday, Dec. 26 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
ATL: 7-4 ATS L11 away
ATL: 5-3 ATS L8 vs division
NOR: 9-1 ATS L10 home
NOR: 4-8 ATS L12 off away win

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2011, 06:34 PM

Tech Trends - Week 16

December 21, 2011

Thursday, Dec. 22 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Even after Carolina loss,Ttexans still 7-1 SU and vs. lien last 8. Colts have posted three straight covers since Dan Orlovsky has started at QB, although Indy still only 3-10 last 13 vs. spread at Lucas Oil Stadium. Texans 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 meetings. Texans, based on team trends.

Saturday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Big visitor series reflected in Raiders' 7-0-1 spread mark last 8 at Arrowhead. Visiting team 16-2-1 vs. lien last 19 meetings. Chiefs "under" 8-1 last 9 TY. Raiders and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

Denver has won last 6 and 8 of last 8 SU, also 6-3 vs. line last 9 with Tebow starting. Tebow now 8-4 vs. line as starter since LY. Broncos have also won and covered last five as visitor, all of those as dog! Bills 0-7 SU, 1-6 vs. line last six TY. Broncos, based on recent trends.

Jags beat Titans in opening week at home but have failed to cover 7 of last 9 as visitor. Jags also "over" three straight since Mel Tucker became interim HC after "under" 10 of first 11 TY. . Titans, however, are "under" last eight TY. Slight to Titans and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bengals 1-4-1 last six vs. spread TY, while Big Red now 7-1 last 8 vs. spot in 2011. Marvin Lewis no covers last three as host TY and 1-3 as home chalk, 2-12 last 14 in role since 2009. Cincy "over" 8-5-1 TY. Cards and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends

Miami 4-1-1 vs. spread last 6 at Foxborough. Dolphins 22-8 their last 30 vs. points on road. "Overs" 6-3 last nine meetings, Belichick "over" 25-8 last 33 since late 2009. Dolphins and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

Brownies only 6-16 last 22 on board since mid 2010, they've also dropped 6 of last 7 vs. line against Ravens. Browns also "under" 12-6-1 last 19 since late 2010. Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Jets "over" 10-4 in 2011, G-Men "over" 9-5 TY. Jets "over" 24-9 since LY and 28-10 since late in 2009 campaign. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

The Shan is "over" four of last five in 2011 after "under" 13-3 previous 16. Vikes "over" 7-2 last 9 TY. "Over," based on recent "totals" trends.

Bucs really hitting skids, no SU wins last 8 TY after loss to Dallas, no covers last four or 7 of last 8, also 2-9 last 11 vs. points in 2011. Cam "over" 8-5-1 TY. Panthers and slight to "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

Rams 2-12 SU and vs. spread TY, also 3-15 last 18 on board since late 2010. Rams 1-8 against points last nine on road as well. Rams also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late 2010. Steel "under" 4-0-1 last four TY. Steelers and "under," based on team trends.

Saturday, Dec. 24 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Note Philip Rivers' 23-2 SU mark in December as a starter in career. Norv 16-6-1 vs. number in last five reg. season games since 2007. Lions only 2-7 against points last 9 in 2011. Norv "over" 9-1 last 10 away (opposite from home "under" numbers), Lions "over" 21-11-2 last 34 overall since late 2009. Norv and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Saturday, Dec. 24 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll has quietly covered 9 of last 11 TY. SF 11-2-1 vs. spread for Harbaugh in 2011 but only 2-2 last four TY. Niners only 2-5 vs. spread last 7 at Seattle. Pete Carroll also "over" 9-4 last 13 at home. Slight to Seahawks and "over," based on recent trends.

Birds have failed to cover last three (including playoffs in 2009) at Jerry Jones' new stadium. But Cowboys only 2-5 as home chalk TY and 3-10 in role in role since LY. slight to Eagles, based on extended Dallas home chalk woes. slight to Eagles, based on extended Dallas home chalk woes.

Sunday, Dec. 25 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Even after loss at KC, Pack still 14-6 vs. spread last 20. Bears 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line since Jay Cutler's injury. Last eight in series "under" as well. "Under" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

Monday, Dec. 26 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Last four games in this series decided by exactly 3 points. Falcs on 6-2-1 spread uptick last nine TY, but Saints 6-0 vs. spread at Superdome this season. Last three meetings "over" at Superdome. Slight to "over" and Saints, based on series "totals" and Saints recent home trends

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2011, 06:34 PM

Texans at Colts

December 21, 2011

The Week 16 NFL card will be spread over four days, including a busy Christmas Eve on Saturday with 13 games. The action begins on Thursday night when Houston looks to end a nine-year jinx at Indianapolis, even though the Texans face a Colts' team that has just one win on its ledger this season. This game is important for seeding purposes inside the AFC playoffs, as Houston tries to bounce back from an ugly loss last Sunday.

The Texans had a golden opportunity to move into the top two of the AFC with a victory over Carolina, but the Panthers rolled to a 28-13 rout at Reliant Stadium as 4 ½-point road underdogs. Carolina cruised to a 21-0 first half lead, thanks to a pair of touchdown tosses by Cam Newton. The loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Texans, while dropping Houston's record to 10-4 on the season. Gary Kubiak's team was bailed out by Pittsburgh and Baltimore both losing in Week 15 on the road, creating a three-way tie for the second seed behind New England in the AFC.

The Colts finally found a way to avoid the loss column by handing the Titans a costly defeat, 27-13 as 6 ½-point home underdogs. Indianapolis accumulated just 82 passing yards, but Donald Brown's late 80-yard touchdown scamper put away the team's first win since beating Tennessee in Week 17 of last season. The Titans would have been tied for the final playoff spot in the AFC with the Jets if Tennessee won, but Indianapolis grabbed the victory in spite of converting 10 first downs.

Indianapolis has covered each of the last three games, but the ATS wins at New England and Baltimore weren't as close as the final score indicates. The Colts were listed as 20 ½-point favorites at Gillette Stadium, as the Patriots built a 31-3 second half lead. Indianapolis scored three late touchdowns, including a pair of Dan Orlovsky scoring connections with Pierre Garcon to give the Colts their first cover since Week 4 at Tampa Bay. Jim Caldwell's team helped out backers the next week with a touchdown on the final play of the game to cash as 16 ½-point 'dogs at Baltimore, 24-10. The Ravens' defense limited the Colts to only 167 yards of total offense and 12 first downs.

During Houston's seven-game winning streak, four of the victories came against subpar competition in Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville twice. The Texans did manage a pair of wins over the Falcons and Bengals, while allowing a combined 29 points in those two games. The key to Houston's success recently has been its defense by yielding 12 points per game during that hot streak, but the Texans are 0-4 this season when allowing at least 25 points. Houston will once again be without its top offensive weapon on Thursday as wide receiver Andre Johnson is out with a hamstring injury.

The last time these two teams met came back in the season opener at Reliant Stadium, as the Colts were blown out in their first game without Peyton Manning. Houston trounced Indianapolis, 34-7 as nine-point favorites, while jumping out to a 34-0 halftime advantage. Ben Tate rushed for 116 yards in place of the injured Arian Foster, as Houston racked up 384 yards and 26 first downs in the victory. However, the Texans own an 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS record in Indianapolis since entering the league back in 2002. All four of those covers came as an underdog of 7 ½ or more, but obviously Manning started at quarterback for the Colts in each of those games.

From a totals perspective, the Colts have split their 14 games, including a 4-3 mark to the 'under' at home. The Texans' defense has carried the team to nine 'unders,' but Houston is 4-3 to the 'over' away from Reliant Stadium. Each of the last two meetings in this series hit the 'under,' including an 'under' off 44 in the season opener.

The Texans are listed as a six-point road favorite, while the total is set at 40. The game will be televised nationally on NFL Network and kicks off at 8:25 PM from Lucas Oil Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2011, 06:37 PM

Trending: NFL playoff hopefuls

Two weeks ago, we took a look at the division leaders at the time and relevant trends for each of them. This week, we’ve shifted our focus to the 15 teams that are still competing for the remaining five spots in the playoffs.

AFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS
In the AFC, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston have all clinched playoff berths, while seven others are contending for the last two positions. Here is a look at each of the contenders, including their remaining schedule and trends from this season.
NEW YORK JETS (8-6)

Remaining schedule: N.Y. Giants, at Miami
6-1 Over (86%) when the total is more than 41
4-0 Over in last 4 games
4-0 Over in last 4 home games

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6)

Remaining schedule: Arizona, Baltimore
2-4 ATS (33%) at home
1-3 ATS (25%) as a home favorite
0-4 ATS since starting the season 7-1 ATS (88%)

TENNESSEE TITANS (7-7)

Remaining schedule: Jacksonville, at Houston
2-5 ATS (29%) as a favorite
1-3 ATS (25%) vs. AFC South
7-0 Under in last 8 games

DENVER BRONCOS (8-6)

Remaining schedule: at Buffalo, Kansas City
6-1 ATS (86%) on the road
1-5 ATS (17%) at home
4-0 Over when the total is 43 or more
6-3 Under (67%) when the total is less than 43

OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-7)

Remaining schedule: at Kansas City, San Diego
5-2 ATS (71%) on the road
7-3 ATS (70%) as an underdog
5-0 Over in last 5 games

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-7)

Remaining schedule: at Detroit, at Oakland
0-3 ATS vs. NFC
Won 3 straight ATS since a 6-game ATS losing streak

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-8)

Remaining schedule: Oakland, at Denver
0-3 ATS as a favorite, all at home
8-3 ATS (73%) as an underdog, including 4-0 as a home underdog
1-6 Under (14%) at home

NFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS
In the NFC, Green Bay, San Francisco and New Orleans have all clinched playoff berths, while eight others are vying for the last three positions. Here is a look at each of the contenders, including their remaining schedule and trends from this season.
DALLAS COWBOYS (8-6)

Remaining Schedule: Philadelphia, at N.Y. Giants
0-4 ATS vs. NFC East
3-7 ATS (30%) as a favorite

NEW YORK GIANTS (7-7)

Remaining Schedule: at N.Y. Jets, Dallas
4-2 ATS (67%) as an underdog
4-2 Over (67%) when the total is more than 45

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-8)

Remaining Schedule: at Dallas, Washington
3-1 ATS (75%) vs. NFC East
4-0 Under vs. NFC East
2-5 ATS (29%) at home

DETROIT LIONS (9-5)

Remaining Schedule: San Diego, at Green Bay
3-0 Over vs. AFC
6-1 Over (86%) on the road
2-7 ATS (22%) in last 9 after starting the season 4-0 ATS

CHICAGO BEARS (7-7)

Remaining Schedule: at Green Bay, at Minnesota
6-2 (75%) Over at home
5-2 (71%) Over as a favorite
0-3 ATS in last 3 games

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5)

Remaining Schedule: at New Orleans, Tampa Bay
5-2 ATS (71%) in domes
7-2 Under (78%) in domes
3-1 Under (75%) vs. AFC South

ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-7)

Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati, Seattle
4-2 ATS (67%) as a road underdog
5-2 (71%) Under on the road

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-7)

Remaining Schedule: San Francisco, at Arizona
8-2 ATS (80%) vs. NFC
8-3 ATS (73%) as an underdog
6-1 (85%) Over at home

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:06 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 8:20 PM ET Indianapolis +7 500

Indianapolis - Over 40.5 500

**Spark** · 12-22-2011, 08:08 PM

Good Luck Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:23 PM

Week 16 Preview: Falcons at Saints

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-3)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -7, Total: 53

The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.

These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons. The pick here is NEW ORLEANS to win and cover the moderate spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Saints:

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Under is 8-2 in the past 10 Falcons games and 4-2 in the past six Saints games. This three-star FoxSheets trend also believes the UNDER will occur:

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.1, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).

Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:25 PM

Green Bay Packers Host Battered Bears Christmas Night

The Green Bay Packers no longer need to be concerned with perfection after suffering their first loss of the season last week. The Packers (13-1) simply need to beat their archrivals – the Chicago Bears (7-7) – to clinch the top seed in the NFC playoff race at home on Sunday Night Football.

Game time is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by NBC. Green Bay opened as a 13-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has moved to -13½ at the Las Vegas Hilton with the total at 45. Some sports books have left the game off the board pending word on Chicago’s probable starting lineup.

Last year, it was the Bears who had an opportunity to prevent the Packers from making it to the postseason in their second meeting. But Green Bay obviously prevailed with a hard-fought 10-3 victory en route to winning 19 straight games, including Super Bowl XLV. However, the second-longest winning streak in NFL history ended with a surprising 19-14 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday.

The Packers fell to the Chiefs as 11-point favorites and had gone 9-4 against the spread in winning their previous 13 games this season. They are still without star wide receiver Greg Jennings due to a sprained knee and have suffered additional injuries to their offensive line, with offensive tackle Derek Sherrod undergoing season-ending surgery on his broken right leg and right tackle Bryan Bulaga out with a sprained right knee.

Running back James Starks could play for the first time in three weeks though after missing the past two games with an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Chicago appeared headed back to the playoffs following a strong 7-3 start, but the team’s season began to fall apart when starting quarterback Jay Cutler fractured the thumb on his throwing hand in a 31-20 home win against the San Diego Chargers. The Bears have lost four in a row, going 1-3 ATS, following a five-game winning streak.

Caleb Hanie, Cutler’s backup, was nearly the hero against Green Bay in last year’s 21-14 loss in the NFC Championship Game, but he has been the goat during their current skid. Hanie has thrown three interceptions in three of his four starts in place of Cutler and is expected to be replaced by Josh McCown, who attempted two passes in relief of him at the end of a 38-14 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday. Two of Hanie’s three picks against the Seahawks were returned for touchdowns.

Chicago’s chances to return to the postseason are slim at best right now, especially with McCown under center. He even threw an interception in his very brief action against Seattle and has not seen significant playing time since 2007 when he played in nine games for the Oakland Raiders.

The Bears were hoping both Cutler and running back Matt Forte would be able to return in this game, but neither player appears ready to go. They also lost wide receiver Johnny Knox for the rest of the season to a serious back injury, which required surgery on Monday.

The ‘under’ has cashed in the past eight meetings of the longest rivalry in league history, and Chicago figures to be offensively-challenge in this game as well. Green Bay has won the last three games between the teams along with five of six, going 4-2 ATS. The loser has not scored more than 17 points in the last nine meetings while the winner has totaled more than 21 once in the past seven. The Packers have scored exactly 21 points three times in the last six meetings.

The weather forecast for Christmas Day in Green Bay calls for a high temperature of 35, cooling down to a low of 27 at night under partly cloudy skies.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:27 PM

Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons are playing much better football as we head towards the postseason. They will try to prove it’s no fluke at the tough New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

Atlanta is 6½-point underdogs with the matchup sporting the highest total of the week at 53 points. ESPN will close out the Week 16 coverage at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Falcons (9-5 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread) can secure a wild card with a win or tie Monday or next week at home against Tampa Bay. The NFC South division is a much slimmer possibility as Atlanta has to win out, plus New Orleans lose at home to Carolina in its finale.

Coach Mike Smith’s team would be in much better shape if not for a 26-23 home loss to New Orleans on November 13. Smith made a very unorthodox move in OT by going for it on fourth down on his own 29-yard-line. It backfired and John Kasey kicked the game-winner.

Atlanta went into a little funk after that, going 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS in its next three games. The cloud finally lifted in the second half at Carolina two games ago, storming back from a 23-7 halftime deficit for a 31-23 win. The Falcons then got their second straight win and cover last Thursday night, dismantling Jacksonville 41-14 as 13 ½-point home favorites.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Atlanta’s last two games after the ‘under’ was 8-0 in the previous eight.

The Falcons are well rested, but appear to be a step below the NFC elite of Green Bay, New Orleans and San Fran. Matt Ryan ranks 10th in QB rating, but is still working on his consistency. Roddy White (1,100 yards) is a very good receiver, although has battled drop problems. Rookie Julio Jones has come on the last three games (85.7 YPG), but has more to prove.

Michael Turner (1,129 yards) is third in the league in rushing, but is averaging just 60. 3 YPG on 3.3 yards per carry the last four. An ongoing groin injury has been part of the problem. It will be hard to stay patient with the running game this week when trying to match points with an offensive juggernaut like New Orleans.

The Falcons rank ninth in total defense (327.2 YPG) and hope to get starting cornerback Brent Grimes (knee) and reserve Kelvin Hayden (toe) back. That would be big.

New Orleans (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) is playing like a team on a mission with a 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Every win matters as it battles not just for the division crown, but also the No. 2 conference seed. The latter will require at least one loss by San Francisco, who does have a tough game at Seattle on Saturday.

The Saints won on the road the last two weeks at Minnesota (42-20) and Tennessee (22-17). That makes them 3-0 ATS away in their last three (including the Atlanta game) after starting the season 1-4 ATS. Green Bay should wrap up the No. 1 seed with a victory Sunday night and New Orleans will likely need a playoff win on the ‘frozen tundra’ to make the Super Bowl.

The Saints have been incredible at home, 6-0 SU and ATS with the average score 40-18. The ‘over’ is just 3-3 in those games with the last three totals in the 50s.

Quarterback Drew Brees is having a monster year, leading the league with 4,780 passing yards and 71.5 percent completions. He needs just 305 yards to break Dan Marino’s single season mark, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throwing late with a big lead.

The Saints rushing offense has really improved at 125.4 YPG (ranked eighth). Rookie Mark Ingram (toe) is questionable after missing the last two games, but there’s plenty of depth with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles.

Coach Sean Payton’s offense has a bit more trouble with NFC South teams, averaging 25.8 PPG in the four games, almost seven PPG less than the season average (32.6 PPG). The ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests and 13-3 in the last 16 overall for New Orleans in the division.

Atlanta did win the last game in New Orleans, 27-24 in OT in September 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams.

Weather is not a factor playing in the dome.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:42 PM

Week 16 NFL Preview Capsules

December 22, 2011

OAKLAND (7-7) At KANSAS CITY (6-8)

Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Chiefs by 1

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Oakland 7-5-2; Kansas City 8-6

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 55-48-2

LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Raiders 28-0, Oct. 23, 2011

LAST WEEK - Raiders lost to Lions 28-27; Chiefs beat Packers 19-14

RAIDERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (6), PASS (12)

RAIDERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (26), PASS (23)

CHIEFS OFFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (14), PASS (26)

CHIEFS DEFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (24), PASS (9)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Oakland needs to win last two games and have Kansas City beat Denver in Week 17 to win AFC West. Chiefs need to win last two, have San Diego lose one of its next two and have Denver lose at Buffalo on Saturday. ... Raiders have lost three straight. ... Chiefs 31-13 (.705) overall against Oakland dating to 1990, including 1991 playoff game. Kansas City 14-7 in regular season at Arrowhead Stadium. ... Kansas City had season-high 438 yards against Packers last Sunday. ... Chiefs intercepted season-high six passes in their first meeting with Oakland. ... QB Kyle Orton threw for 299 yards against Green Bay, hitting 10 different receivers in first start for Kansas City. ... K Ryan Succop has converted 21 straight field goals for Chiefs, longest active streak in NFL. ... Carson Palmer has three 300-yard passing games in eight starts, most by Raiders QB in a season since Kerry Collins had three in 2005. ... Raiders WR Darrius Heyward-Bey had career highs of eight catches for 155 yards last week against Detroit. RB Michael Bush tied career high with seven catches. ... Oakland highest scoring team in NFL in 2 minutes prior to halftime with 56 points. ... Raiders offensive coordinator Al Saunders spent 10 seasons as assistant with Kansas City (1989-98) and returned as assistant head coach from 2001-05.

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JACKSONVILLE (4-10) At TENNESSEE (7-7)

Saturday, 1 p.m. CBS

OPENING LINE - Titans by 7 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Jacksonville 4-9-1; Tennessee 6-6-2

SERIES RECORD - Titans lead 19-15

LAST MEETING - Jaguars beat Titans 16-14, Sept. 11

LAST WEEK: Jaguars lost to Falcons 41-14; Titans lost to Colts 27-13.

JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (12), PASS (32)

JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (14), PASS (4)

TITANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (31), PASS (13)

TITANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (23), PASS (15)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Jaguars rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has at least one TD pass in four of five road starts. ... Jaguars got first road win against AFC South opponent Nov. 13 at Colts. ... Maurice Jones-Drew (61) needs two rushing TDs to pass Fred Taylor (62) for most in team history. Jones-Drew has 73 career TDs, most total TDs in club history. Jones-Drew has NFL-best 1,334 yards rushing and needs 58 yards rushing to pass his career-best of 1,391 yards in 2009. Jones-Drew has run for 177 and 186 yards in his past two games at Tennessee. ... WR Chastin West caught his first TD pass of his career last week. ... LB Paul Posluszny leads Jaguars with 110 tackles. ... DE Jeremy Mincey has career-best 5 1/2 sacks. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 750 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions with a 97.5 passer rating in past three games vs Jaguars. Hasselbeck needs 76 yards passing to reach 3,000 for eighth season. ... Chris Johnson needs 70 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for fourth straight season to start career. Johnson averaging 95.4 yards rushing in 11 career home games vs AFC South. ... Johnson (38) needs two rushing TDs to join Earl Campbell (73) and Eddie George (64) as only players to reach 40 for a career in team history. ... WR Nate Washington (66) needs four catches to become first Titans WR to reach 70 catches in season since 2004. Washington has AFC-best 27 catches on third down. ... CB Jason McCourty leads team with 90 tackles.

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ST. LOUIS (2-12) At PITTSBURGH (10-4)

Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Off

RECORD VS. SPREAD - St. Louis 2-12; Pittsburgh 6-7

SERIES RECORD - Rams lead 17-6-2

LAST MEETING - Steelers beat Rams 41-24, Dec. 20, 2007

LAST WEEK - Rams lost to Bengals 20-13; Steelers lost to 49ers 20-3

RAMS OFFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (26), PASS (27)

RAMS DEFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (32), PASS (8)

STEELERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (17), PASS (8)

STEELERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (6), PASS (1)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - St. Louis has dominated series, and is 11-1-1 in Pittsburgh, lone loss coming in 1996. ... St. Louis DE Chris Long fifth in league with 13 sacks, fifth-highest total by a Rams player since stat became official in 1982. ... St. Louis RB Stephen Jackson needs 34 yards to top 1,000 yards for seventh straight season, longest active streak in league. ... Rams last in league in scoring, averaging 11.9 points per game while Steelers allowing 15.5 points per game, second-fewest in NFL. ... Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger needs to average 236 yards passing over final two games to break his team record for yards in a season (4,328) set in 2009. ... Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller broke franchise record for career receptions by tight end last week and needs three receptions to surpass Hall of Famer Lynn Swann for fourth-place on team's all-time reception list. ... Pittsburgh would finish 7-1 at Heinz Field this season with a victory, first time since 2007 Steelers have won at least seven home games in a season. ... Rams have lost five straight games. ... Steelers 3-3 all-time on Christmas Eve. ... Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward needs nine receptions to reach 1,000 for his career. He would become second player in NFL history to have 1,000 career receptions and multiple Super Bowl rings, joining Jerry Rice.

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DENVER (8-6) At BUFFALO (5-9)

Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Broncos by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Denver 7-7; Buffalo 6-7-1

SERIES RECORD - Bills lead 19-15-1

LAST MEETING - Bills beat Broncos 30-23, Dec. 21, 2008

LAST WEEK - Broncos lost to Patriots 41-23; Bills lost to Dolphins, 30-23

BRONCOS OFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (1), PASS (31)

BRONCOS DEFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (20), PASS (20)

BILLS OFFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (13), PASS (15)

BILLS DEFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (29), PASS (16)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Bills coach Chan Gailey is friends with Bob Tebow, father of Broncos QB Tim Tebow, going back to when the two attended Florida together in early 1970s. Gailey, who spent 2002-07 as Georgia Tech coach, attempted to recruit Tim Tebow to play for Yellow Jackets, but lost out to Florida. ... Broncos have won five of past six meetings. ... Denver, 7-2 in past nine, controls own destiny in attempting to clinch first playoff berth since 2005. ... Broncos averaging NFL-leading 161.3 yards rushing, and facing team that's allowing 139.5 yards rushing a game, including season-worst 254 last week. ... Tebow has engineered 18 scoring drives in fourth quarter or OT in past 10 games. ... RB Willis McGahee facing former team for third time since Buffalo traded 2003 first-round pick to Baltimore in March 2007. With 990 yards rushing this season, he's 10 yards from joining Ricky Watters in becoming second NFL player to reach 1,000 with three teams. ... LB Von Miller is second among NFL rookies with 11 1/2 sacks, and has matched franchise rookie record set by Rulon Jones in 1980. ... WR Demaryius Thomas leads NFL with 338 yards receiving this month. ... Bills have lost seven straight, their longest skid since 0-8 start last season. Destined for seventh straight losing season and will miss playoffs for 12 straight year - AFC's longest drought now that Houston clinched postseason berth this season. ... After outscoring opponents 211-142 in getting off to 5-2 start, have been outscored 224-100 in past seven. ... QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has NFL worst 19 interceptions, 12 coming in past seven games. ... Bills' defense generated 18 takeaways (14 interceptions, four fumbles) in first seven games; has two interceptions and six fumbles in past seven. ... RB C.J. Spiller had career-best 167 yards from scrimmage (91 rushing, 76 receiving) last week. ... DT Marcell Dareus has 5 1/2 sacks, most by team rookie since Aaron Schobel had 6 1/2 in 2001. ... Bills 1-4 all-time on Dec. 24.

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TAMPA BAY (4-1) At CAROLINA (5-9)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Panthers by 7

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tampa Bay 4-10; Carolina 8-5-1

SERIES RECORD - Panthers lead 13-9

LAST MEETING - Panthers beat Bucs 38-19

LAST WEEK - Bucs lost to Cowboys, 31-15; Panthers beat Texans 28-13

BUCS OFFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (27), PASS (18)

BUCS DEFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (25), PASS (26)

PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (5), PASS (10)

PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (25), PASS (18)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Bucs have lost eight straight games. ... Bucs have scored 20 or more points in one of past eight games. ... .. QB Josh Freeman has eclipsed 3,000 yards passing for second straight year, but has more interceptions (18) than touchdown passes (15). ... Freeman didn't play in last meeting with Carolina. He has won past two starts against Carolina with 419 yards passing, four touchdowns and no interceptions. ... Bucs WR Mike Williams had 93 yards receiving in last meeting with Carolina. ... RB LaGarrette Blount was held to 19 yards rushing in the last meeting with Carolina. ... TE Kellen Winslow has caught a pass in 90 straight games. ... Ronde Barber has started 197 consecutive games, most by cornerback in NFL history. ... DE Adrian Clayborn tied for second among NFC rookies with 7 1/2 sacks. .. Panthers QB Cam Newton has 30 touchdowns (17 passing, 13 rushing), the most by rookie in NFL history. ... Newton needs 18 yards passing to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing record. Newton has 3,722 yards passing. ... In his last meeting with Bucs, Newton became first quarterback in NFL history to rush for three touchdowns, throw a touchdown pass and catch a pass. ... RB DeAngelo Williams has four rushing touchdowns in past four games. ... WR Steve Smith is second in NFC with 1,299 yards receiving and needs 101 to reach 1,400 yards receiving for third time in career. ... Panthers TE Richie Brockel scored first career touchdown last week on trick play. Brockel was on U.S. national team that won gold medal at IFAF World Championship. ... LB Jordan Senn had 14 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble last week against the Texans.

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MINNESOTA (2-12) At WASHINGTON (5-9)

Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Redskins by 5 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Minnesota 5-8-1; Washington 7-7

SERIES RECORD - Redskins lead 11-9

LAST MEETING - Vikings beat Redskins 17-13, Nov. 28, 2010

LAST WEEK - Vikings lost to Saints 42-20; Redskins beat Giants 23-10

VIKINGS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (4), PASS (28)

VIKINGS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (10), PASS (30)

REDSKINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (29), PASS (14)

REDSKINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (15), PASS (13)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Vikings have lost six straight, need to win last two to avoid matching or setting new worst record in franchise history. Current low-water mark is 3-13 in 1984. ... Minnesota hasn't lost seven in row in single season since expansion year of 1961. ... Win at Washington last November came in Leslie Frazier's debut as Minnesota's coach. He is 5-15 overall. ... Minnesota DE Jared Allen second in NFL with 17 1/2 sacks, needs 5 1/2 to surpass NFL season record (22 1/2 set by Michael Strahan in 2001). Allen has 27 1/2 sacks in last 23 games, including 16 in last 12. Since entering NFL in 2004, he has NFL-best 100 1/2 sacks. ... Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is 68 yards shy of fifth straight 1,000-yard season. ... Game features two of NFL's lowest rated quarterbacks: Minnesota's Christian Ponder (72.3) and Washington's Rex Grossman (71.4), ranked 28th and 29th, respectively. ... Ponder has been sacked at least three times in seven straight games. He has seven touchdowns and six interceptions in his last three. ... Grossman tied for first in NFL with 22 giveaways (18 interceptions, four lost fumbles). He has thrown at least one interception in 10 straight starts. ... Washington has committed at least one turnover in 28 straight games, longest active NFL streak. ... Redskins have lost five straight at home, haven't lost six straight home games since 1994. ... Redskins RB Roy Helu leads NFC rookies with 47 receptions. ... Washington LB Ryan Kerrigan is tied for second among NFC rookies with 7.5 sacks.

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CLEVELAND (4-10) At BALTIMORE (10-4)

Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Ravens by 13

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Cleveland 5-8-1; Baltimore 7-6-1

SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 18-7

LAST MEETING - Ravens beat Browns 24-10, Dec. 4

LAST WEEK - Browns lost to Cardinals 20-17 OT; Ravens lost to Chargers 34-14

BROWNS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (30), PASS (22)

BROWNS DEFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (31), PASS (3)

RAVENS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (16), PASS (16)

RAVENS DEFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (2), PASS (5)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Second meeting this month between AFC North foes. Ravens have won seven straight in lopsided series. ... In last meeting, Ray Rice ran for career-high 204 yards on muddy field in Cleveland. ... Browns coach Pat Shurmur and Ravens mentor John Harbaugh coached together with Philadelphia from 1999-2007. ... Browns 1-6 on road; Ravens 7-0 at home. Browns 0-4 in division; Ravens 4-0. ... Cleveland expected to start Seneca Wallace at QB ahead of injured Colt McCoy (concussion). ... Browns LB D'Qwell Jackson, who leads team with 138 tackles, played in college at Maryland. ... Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards on 22 carries with TD in last game at Baltimore, a 24-17 defeat. ... Ravens seeking to complete first 8-0 season at home. ... Baltimore QB Joe Flacco 7-0 vs. Browns with eight TDs and four INTs. ... Ravens have won six straight AFC North games. ... Baltimore RB Ricky Williams needs 64 yards to reach 10,000 in career. ... Ravens signed K Shayne Graham on Wednesday. He is expected replace injured Billy Cundiff (calf). ... Ravens S Ed Reed has 10 career INTs vs. Cleveland, the most against any opponent. ... Baltimore is only NFL team that has not yielded a first-quarter sack.

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MIAMI (5-9) At NEW ENGLAND (11-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Patriots by 9 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Miami 7-6; New England 7-6

SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 50-42

LAST MEETING - Patriots beat Dolphins 38-24, Sept. 12

LAST WEEK - Dolphins beat Bills 30-23; Patriots beat Broncos 41-23

DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (7), PASS (24)

DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (3), PASS (25)

PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (20), PASS (2)

PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (19), PASS (32)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - In first meeting in season opener, teams combined for NFL single-game record of 906 yards passing. ... Patriots have won seven of last nine games against Dolphins. ... Teams tied for first in AFC with 34 pass plays of 25 yards or more. ... Miami coach Todd Bowles 1-0 since replacing fired Tony Sparano. ... RB Reggie Bush sixth in AFC with 973 yards rushing after gaining career-high 203 last Sunday. ... Dolphins have just 34 offensive penalties, second fewest in league to Jacksonville's 33. ... Miami 5-2 since losing first seven games. ...Matt Moore has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in each of last four games. ... Brandon Marshall second in NFL in receptions starting in 2007 with 463. New England's Wes Welker is first with 536. ... Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs if they win and Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all lose or tie. ... Tom Brady needs 491 yards passing in his last two games to pass NFL record-holder Dan Marino's 5,084. New Orleans' Drew Brees needs 304. ... Patriots 19-1 at home in December since 2002, when Gillette Stadium opened. ... Rob Gronkowski needs 150 yards receiving in last two games to surpass record of 1,290 for tight ends set in 1980 by Kellen Winslow of San Diego. ... Patriots have allowed most total yards for season in NFL for all but first two weeks.

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NEW YORK GIANTS (7-7) At NEW YORK JETS (8-6)

Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Jets by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - NY Giants 6-8; NY Jets 6-8

SERIES RECORD - Giants lead 7-4

LAST MEETING - Giants beat Jets 35-24, Oct. 7, 2007

LAST WEEK - Giants lost to Redskins 23-10; Jets lost to Eagles 45-19

GIANTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (32), PASS (3)

GIANTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (28t), RUSH (22), PASS (29)

JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (21), PASS (21)

JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (16), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - After week of trash talk, most of it from Jets coach Rex Ryan, teams meet in showdown of New York-area rivals with plenty of playoff implications. If Giants beat Jets and then Dallas next weekend, they win NFC East and return to playoffs for first time since 2008. Two wins will likely clinch Jets a third straight wild-card appearance under Ryan. ... Three players in game have played for both Ryan and Giants coach Tom Coughlin: Jets WR Plaxico Burress and QB Mark Brunell, and Giants P Steve Weatherford. ... Giants have lost five of last six, but have won last four regular-season games against Jets. ... QB Eli Manning has thrown for franchise-record 4,362 yards, and with 25 TDs joined Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Dan Marino and Drew Brees as only QBs with at least 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in seven straight seasons. Manning, who won only other start vs. Jets, has 14 TDs in fourth quarter, tied for most in a season. Also has three 400-yard games, tied for NFL's single-season mark. ... WR Victor Cruz has 1,194 yards receiving and needs 150 in last two games to top Amani Toomer's team record set in 2002. ... Hakeem Nicks has 1,096 yards receiving, making him and Cruz the first pair of Giants WRs to have 1,000 yards in same season. ... DE Jason Pierre-Paul has 13 1/2 sacks, and at least a half-sack in 10 of 14 games this season. ... Jets looking to improve to 7-1 at home, which would match best mark in team history - last set in 1998. ... Burress facing Giants for first time since they released him in 2009 after accidentally shooting himself in November 2008. Later served 20 months in prison on gun charge, and signed with Jets less than two months after release. ... QB Mark Sanchez needs 283 yards passing to top career best of 3,291 set last season. ... RB Shonn Greene needs 59 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for the first time in three-year career. Leads AFC with four TDs rushing in December. ... RB LaDainian Tomlinson has 13,599 yards rushing, 64 from passing Jerome Bettis for fifth place on c areer list. ... WR Santonio Holmes has TD catch in four straight games, and he and Burress are only duo from same team in AFC with at least eight TD receptions. ... KR-RB Joe McKnight leads NFL with 32.3 yard kickoff return average, but status was uncertain as he recovers from separated right shoulder and hyperextended right elbow.

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ARIZONA (7-7) At CINCINNATI (8-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Bengals by 5 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Arizona 7-6-1; Cincinnati 7-5-2

SERIES RECORD - Bengals lead 5-4

LAST MEETING - Cardinals 35-27, Nov. 18, 2007

LAST WEEK - Cardinals beat Browns 20-17 OT; Bengals beat Rams 20-13

CARDINALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (24), PASS (19)

CARDINALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (18), PASS (22)

BENGALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (19), PASS (20)

BENGALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (9), PASS (11)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Cardinals have won four in a row and six of seven. They can stay in playoff contention with win over Bengals and loss by either Atlanta or Detroit. ... Win would give them their first five-game winning streak since 1977, when they won six in a row. ... Arizona has three overtime wins, tying NFL record for a season. Denver also has three OT wins this year. ... Cardinals have overcome fourth-quarter deficits six times this season, tied for second-most such wins by any team since 1970. Indianapolis did it seven times in 2009. ... RB Beanie Wells has 994 yards rushing and 10 TDs. He needs six yards to become first Cardinal with 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. ... Cincinnati tied with Jets for final AFC wild card berth, but New York has tiebreakers in its favor. ... Game will match Bengals WR A.J. Green, the fourth overall pick, and Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, the fifth overall pick. They went head-to-head twice in college at Georgia and LSU, splitting their two games. ... Green needs seven catches and four yards receiving to top Cris Collinsworth's club rookie records from 1981. ... QB Andy Dalton needs two TD passes to join Peyton Manning, Charlie Conerly and Dan Marino with 20 as a rookie. ... Dalton became the fifth rookie to throw for 3,000 yards last week, joining Manning, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan. ... Game won't be sold out. Cincinnati has sold out one of its seven games at Paul Brown Stadium, when Steelers brought thousands of fans.

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SAN DIEGO (7-7) At DETROIT (9-5)

Saturday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Lions by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Diego 5-9; Detroit 6-6-2

SERIES RECORD - Chargers 6-3

LAST MEETING - Chargers beat Lions 51-14, Dec. 16, 2007

LAST WEEK - Chargers beat Ravens 34-14; Lions beat Raiders 28-27

CHARGERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (15), PASS (6)

CHARGERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (21), PASS (6)

LIONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (28), PASS (5)

LIONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (27), PASS (12)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Detroit can clinch first playoff berth since 1999 season with win. ... Last week, Chargers QB Philip Rivers joined Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as only passers with at least four consecutive 4,000-yard seasons. Rivers 23-2 as starter in December, best mark among QBs who began careers in Super Bowl era with minimum of 15 starts. ... Lions have won record four games after trailing by at least 13 points. ... San Diego TE Antonio Gates needs three catches to surpass Hall of Famer Charlie Joiner (586) for franchise record. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford is second-youngest QB to pass for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in season, behind Dan Marino. ... Detroit WR Calvin Johnson has 14 touchdown catches, joining Lance Alworth and Jerry Rice as only players with at least 12 in three of first five seasons. ... San Diego has converted NFL-best 83.3 percent on third-and-less-than-4. ... Lions have scored NFL-best 63 points on drives of under four plays. ... Chargers allowing opponents to convert 46.7 percent of third downs - second-highest mark in league. ... Detroit has allowed 63 points in final two minutes of first or second half, second-highest total in league.

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SAN FRANCISCO (11-3) At SEATTLE (7-7)

Saturday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - 49ers by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Francisco 11-2-1; Seattle 9-4-1

SERIES RECORD - Seahawks lead 13-12.

LAST MEETING - 49ers beat Seahawks 33-17, Sept. 11

LAST WEEK - 49ers beat Steelers 20-3; Seahawks beat Bears 38-14

49ERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (25), RUSH (9), PASS (29)

49ERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (1), PASS (21)

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (22), PASS (23)

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (11), PASS (13T)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - San Francisco beat Seattle 33-17 in season opener on strength of two kick returns for touchdowns by Ted Ginn, Jr. in final 4 minutes after Seattle had pulled within 19-17. ... San Francisco has won two straight over Seattle, both in Bay Area. ... Win by San Francisco and loss by New Orleans would clinch No. 2 seed and first-round playoff bye for 49ers. ... QB Alex Smith has won 12 of past 15 starts dating back to last season and is 5-1 in last six starts vs. NFC West. 49ers 10-0 this season when Smith has a passer rating of more than 100. ... 49ers have allowed five touchdowns in first half this season and haven't surrendered a touchdown rushing all year. According to STATS LLC, since 1932 no team has allowed zero touchdowns rushing in a season. The fewest is two. 49ers are first team in NFL history to not allow a TD rushing in first 14 games. They have not allowed 100-yard rusher in 36 games in row, longest active streak in league. ... Offensive line gave up no sacks vs. Steelers after Smith was clobbered 18 times in previous three games. ... LB Aldon Smith leads all rookies with 13 sacks. ... Seahawks have won five of six to inch back into NFC playoff race, but needs to win its final two games and get two losses from Detroit and/or Atlanta to have shot at postseason. ... Seattle had string of six straight games with at least 100 yards rushing snapped last week at Chicago when Seahawks were held to 60 yards. ... Marshawn Lynch had worst game in yards rushing since Week 8 against Cincinnati with 42 yards on 20 carries vs. Bears, but scored two touchdowns rushing to give him 11 for season. He's scored a TD in 10 straight games, longest streak in franchise history. ... Lynch also became Seattle's first 1,000-yard rusher since Shaun Alexander ran for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns in his MVP season of 2005. ... QB Tarvaris Jackson was 15 of 19 for 176 yards, one touchdown and a passer rating of 122.8 in the second half against Chicago. ... Since Week 10, Seattle has 18 takeaways, most in NFL. ... Seattle has climbed to fifth in league with a plus-8 turnover margin. ... CB Brandon Browner has at least one interception in four straight games, tying franchise record. He set franchise record for interception return yards in a season last week vs. Chicago with his 42-yard interception return for a touchdown.

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PHILADELPHIA (6-8) At DALLAS (8-6)

Saturday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Dallas by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Philadelphia 6-8; Dallas 5-8-1

SERIES RECORD - Cowboys lead 59-46

LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Cowboys 34-7, Oct. 30

LAST WEEK - Eagles beat Jets 45-19; Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-15

EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (3), PASS (11)

EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (17) PASS (10)

COWBOYS OFFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

COWBOYS DEFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (7), PASS (19)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Dallas wins NFC East by winning last two games. ... Eagles can still win division and make playoffs if they win last two games and get some help. But they would be eliminated from postseason contention even before playing Dallas if Giants win earlier against Jets. ... Philadelphia going for first season sweep of Cowboys since 2006. ... All Cowboys' losses this season have been close, except 34-7 at Philadelphia on Oct. 30. Their other five losses have been by average margin of four points, biggest being 19-13 in OT at Arizona. ... Two of NFL sack leaders will be featured. Philadelphia's Jason Babin leads the NFL with 18 sacks, three shy of Reggie White's team record set in 1987. Dallas' DeMarcus Ware is third with 16. ... Ware had three sacks in 2010 season finale against Eagles. ... Eagles and Houston Texans are only two teams in NFL ranked in top 10 in both total offense and total defense. ... Cowboys 2-3 in games played on Christmas Eve. Philadelphia 2-2 the night before Christmas, 0-2 on road. ... Dallas playing games on consecutive Saturdays for only second time in team history. The other time was 1974.

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CHICAGO (7-7) At GREEN BAY (13-1)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC

OPENING LINE - Packers by 12 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Bears 7-7; Green Bay 9-5

SERIES RECORD - Bears lead 92-85-6

LAST MEETING - Packers beat Bears 27-17, Sept. 25

LAST WEEK - Bears lost to Seahawks 38-14; Packers lost to Chiefs 19-14

BEARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (10), PASS (25)

BEARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (8), PASS (27)

PACKERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (25), PASS (4)

PACKERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (12), PASS (31)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Packers can clinch home-field advantage in NFC with win, or San Francisco loss, on Sunday. ... Packers' loss at Kansas City last Sunday broke 19-game winning streak and was first loss in nearly a year, having lost at New England on Dec. 19, 2010. ... Will be fourth meeting between Bears and Packers in 2011. Two teams faced off in 2010 regular season finale, NFC championship game, and earlier this season. ... QB Aaron Rodgers is first Packers player and fifth player overall in NFL history to throw 40-plus touchdowns in season. ... Five of WR Jordy Nelson's 10 touchdowns this season have been for 35-plus yards. ... WR Donald Driver has 9,979 yards receiving and needs 21 to become the Packers player with 10,000. ... CB Charles Woodson has five interceptions against Bears. Since joining Packers in 2006, Woodson has 37 interceptions and nine interception returns for touchdowns. ... Bears would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. ... Josh McCown replaces Caleb Hanie as Bears starting QB after Hanie struggled in wake of Jay Cutler's thumb injury. McCown hasn't started a game since Dec. 23, 2007, for Oakland against Jacksonville. ... Cutler remains out, and RB Matt Forte expected to remain sidelined with knee injury. ... Including NFC championship game, Bears LB Brian Urlacher aims for third game in row vs. Packers with an interception. ... Bears DE Julius Peppers had sack and fumble recovery in last game vs. Packers. Since entering NFL in 2002, Peppers is tied for third in league with 99 sacks.

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ATLANTA (7-5) At NEW ORLEANS (9-3)

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ESPN

OPENING LINE - Saints by 6 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 7-6-1; New Orleans 10-4

SERIES RECORD - Falcons lead 45-39

LAST MEETING - Saints beat Falcons 26-23 OT, Nov. 13

LAST WEEK - Saints beat Vikings 42-20; Falcons beat Jaguars 41-14

FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (18), PASS (9)

FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (18), PASS (22)

SAINTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (8), PASS (1)

SAINTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24t), RUSH (13), PASS (28)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Falcons have won seven of past nine games, with one of two loses coming against New Orleans. ... QB Matt Ryan has completed 64 percent of his passes for 544 yards, seven TDs and no INTs in last two games. ... Ryan needs 302 yards passing to become second Falcons QB with 4,000 yards passing in a season. ... WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and two TDs last week. ... White has five TDs in his past four games and also has 1,100 yards receiving this season, his team-record fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. ... Rookie WR Julio Jones has eight catches for 189 yards and three TDs in his past two games. ... DE John Abraham had 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles last week. ... Saints have won six straight. ... QB Drew Brees leads NFL with 4,780 yards passing. ... Brees needs 305 yards to pass Hall of Fame QB Dan Marino (5,084 in 1984) for most yards passing in season. ... Brees has passed for 300 or more yards in a game 11 times this season, the most in a season in NFL history. ... Brees has 20 or more completions in NFL-record 34 straight games. ... Brees has a TD pass in 41 consecutive games, second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas (47). ... Jimmy Graham leads NFL TEs in receptions (87) and yards receiving (1,171). ... Saints have won nine of 11 vs. Atlanta since Sean Payton became New Orleans coach in 2006. ... Darren Sproles leads NFL with 2,292 combined yards (496 rushing, 659 receiving, 888 on kickoff returns, 249 on punt returns).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:43 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

December 22, 2011

With Christmas fast approaching, business has been brisk in the Las Vegas sports books. Regular bankrolls for most players are finding that has become a little smaller this week because of obligations to buying the wife and kids all the gifts they asked Santa for.
This is nothing new. It’s always slow at this time of the year, but as the clock gets closer to kickoff, the traffic starts to mount, and sometimes at a more rapid pace than other weeks.

This Friday night sports books will be jumping and it will go all the way until kickoff on Saturday. Because so many people are waiting until the last minute -- just like their shopping -- it will be quite a spectacle to watch it all unfold. Extra writers will be on duty treating Friday and Saturday as if it were a Saturday and Sunday.

Make no mistake about it, though, the masses will get their bets in one way or another for Week 16 of the NFL season even if the games are on a Saturday with Christmas Eve festivities trumping regular viewing routines.

One of the initial favorites of large money early in the week was taking the Chiefs at PICK ’EM against the Raiders and betting them all the way to minus-2. The Raiders have a lot going for them historically coming in despite losing their last three games in a row and being on the verge of blowing a playoff spot.

Not only have the Raiders won the last four games at Arrowhead Stadium, but they have also covered their last eight games on the road against AFC West opponents. They started the season out 5-0 against the spread on the road, but didn’t cover their last two. They had two bad road losses at Miami and Green Bay to suggest that maybe they have packed it in and will wait for a full season next year with quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Darren McFadden.

However, Oakland showed some grit last week against Detroit, but ran out of gas at the costliest moment -- the end of the game.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has a new coach, new quarterback and most of all, a new attitude. After just knocking off the previously undefeated Packers, they probably feel that they can beat anyone. While this could set up to be a major let down spot for the Chiefs, the influx of new characters running the team might not allow for that to happen.

The team the Chiefs are trying to catch, Denver, is being bet against in their game at Buffalo. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites, but money came in on the Bills knocking it to -3 (EVEV) and finally down to -2.5 points. Despite the Tim Tebow show coming to town, the game will still be blacked out in Buffalo because of not selling out.

It will be interesting to see how the young quarterback responds being not only a favorite, but having the AFC West crown in his hands with two games to go. Buffalo is a dangerous team here with a seven-game losing streak just trying to salvage anything it can to close out their season. For whatever its worth, Denver has won the last three games in Buffalo.

The other part of the AFC West equation has the red-hot Chargers of December cruising into Detroit with plenty of backing behind them. Perhaps it was just a matter of bettors getting the attractive initial number of +3 (-120), but the number is down to +2.5 flat after some moves on the money attached. The Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but Philip Rivers is now 23-2 as a starter in December.

The NFC East has some great drama going on as both the Cowboys and Giants appear to be content with making the next two weeks the most action packed, thrilling roller-coaster ride we've ever seen. While those two teams figure out ways to lose, the Eagles have suddenly come to life and money is backing them this week.

The Cowboys opened -2.5 (-120) for their home game against the Eagles and the line currently sits at -1.5. After the pounding Philadelphia put on the Jets last week, we are all starting believe that this was the Eagles team we expected to see from the beginning of the year.

The Giants and Jets have met 11 times (NYG 7-4) while sharing the Big Apple spotlight, but none of the previous 11 games had as much meaning as this one with playoff spots on the line for each. Should the Jets lose an entire new landscape opens up in the AFC with several teams within grasp of a Wild Card berth. Should the Giants lose, it opens the door up for the Eagles to stay alive with a win.

Either way, it should be fun just because of the war of words which first began with Rex Ryan firing the first shot on Monday saying, "I'm not anyone's little brother" and "The Jets are the better team since he's been in New York." Victor Cruz also said Revis Island isn't feared as it once was and teams are going right at him. Besides all the fun with the media, the line has remained quite dull as Jets opened the favorite at -3 (EVEN) and it hasn't moved.

The Cardinals have been on a tear lately winning six of their last seven games and have been given all the respect in the world with bettors because the line hasn't moved from the Bengals opener of -4. Among those six wins includes victories over the Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers. This would appear to be a great situation for the Bengals at home with a Wild Card berth within reach, but somehow Arizona continues to amaze on a weekly basis.

Seattle is almost as hot as the Cardinals and it’s getting 2.5 points at home against the 49ers on a very short week for them. The Seahawks have won five of their last six, which includes big wins against the Ravens and Eagles. The 49ers initially opened as 1.5-point favorites before their win against the Steelers, then were reposted at -2.5 (-120) and are now -2.5 flat.

Carolina showed that they can play with the best last week after dominating Houston on the road and bettors laid -7 with them at home against the Buccaneers. The number is now -7.5.

The Browns have found some money with Seneca Wallace starting at quarterback again this week at Baltimore. The Ravens opened -13.5 and are now -12. Wallace and the Browns covered at Arizona last week, but still lost 20-17. The Ravens come off a blowout loss at San Diego and will be without wide receiver Anquan Boldin (knee) for at least two weeks.

QB Caleb Hanie gets the hook this week after four unsuccessful starts for the Bears in favor of Josh McCown for their Christmas night game at Green Bay. The Packers opened as 11.5-point favorites and between a few bets and moves, the game is now -13 or -13.5 everywhere.

The “Game of the Week” is Monday between the Saints and Falcons and the line hasn't moved. The Saints are 6-0 ATS at home this year while the Falcons are 9-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the last three seasons.

Have a great holiday weekend and may Santa bring you the four-team parlay you deserve, early on Saturday. ?

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2011, 08:46 PM

Tip Sheet - Week 16

December 22, 2011

The Christmas Eve card in the NFL is an interesting one with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. The two most interesting races down the stretch involve the AFC West and NFC East, as both divisions have at least three teams fighting for the title. We'll begin the Saturday preview with a battle of New Jersey, pitting two clubs that desperately need a victory.

Giants at Jets (-2 ½, 45 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

These two squads are always the talk of New York, but the discussion recently has circled around the meltdown of Big Blue. Tom Coughlin's Giants are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS the last six games to fall out of first place inside the NFC East, capped off by an ugly 23-10 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 15. The Giants will head to the visiting locker room at Met Life Stadium on Saturday to take on a Jets' team that was embarrassed at Philadelphia, 45-19 as three-point road underdogs.

The Jets begin Week 16 tied for the sixth spot inside the AFC playoff race at 8-6 with the Bengals, but New York has plenty to play for in the final two games. Rex Ryan's gang owns a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS record at home this season, while cashing the 'over' in each of the last four contests. The Giants are a profitable 4-2 ATS in six games as an underdog this season, including outright victories at New England, Philadelphia, and Dallas.

Broncos (-2 ½, 41 ½) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo's season has gone by the wayside with seven consecutive losses, but the Bills can still impact the AFC playoff picture with a victory over the Broncos. Denver was humbled by New England this past Sunday as seven-point home 'dogs, 41-23, after taking an early 16-7 lead. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for Denver, as the Broncos need to win one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.

Denver is listed as a favorite for the fifth time this season, but the Broncos have compiled a 1-3 ATS mark, while each game has been decided by three points or less. Since Tim Tebow's arrival at the starting quarterback position, the Broncos are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS, including a 5-0 SU/ATS mark away from Denver. During Buffalo's seven-game skid, the Bills have covered just one game, a 28-24 road loss to the Jets as 9 ½-point underdogs.

Raiders at Chiefs (-2, 42) - 1:00 PM EST

Both Oakland and Kansas City have a shot to still win the AFC West title, but each rival has to capture victories in the final two games to make the postseason. The Raiders are playing the worst of any AFC team in playoff contention with three consecutive losses, while trying to avenge a 28-0 home shutout at the hands of the Chiefs in late October. Kansas City pulled off the biggest upset of the season by stunning previously undefeated Green Bay this past Sunday as 11-point 'dogs, 19-14.

The Chiefs have turned into one of the streakiest teams in the NFL this season, by compiling a pair of substantial losing skids, while also putting up a four-game winning streak. Kansas City is an incredible 8-3 ATS as an underdog, but owns an 0-3 ATS mark when laying points, with all three losses coming as home favorites. The Chiefs are 8-1 to the 'under' the last nine games, while the Raiders have finished 'over' the total in each of the previous five contests. This series has been dominated by the road team, going 9-1 SU/ATS the last 10 meetings, including four consecutive wins by the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium.

Chargers at Lions (-2 ½, 52) - 4:05 PM EST

San Diego's resurgence continued after slamming Baltimore on Sunday night to improve to 7-7 on the season, as the Bolts head to the Motor City. The Lions rallied from a 13-point deficit to shock the Raiders, 28-27 for their ninth win, while Detroit attempts to creep closer to a Wild Card berth. Detroit's defense will be tested after allowing 27 points or more for the sixth straight week, as the Lions face a Chargers' offense that has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three victories.

Norv Turner's club has been nearly unbeatable in December and January of the regular season since 2008 with a 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS ledger, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record this month. The Chargers are riding a 7-1 stretch to the 'over' in their last eight away games, while the Lions have hit the 'over' in six of their previous seven interconference games. Detroit started hot at Ford Field, but the Lions are helping backers at home with a 1-4 ATS mark the last five games in the Motor City.

Eagles at Cowboys (-1 ½, 50 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

The most intriguing game of the Christmas Eve card takes place in the Lone Star State as Philadelphia looks to keep its late-season surge going against Dallas. The Eagles are coming off consecutive blowouts of AFC East opponents in wins over the Dolphins and Jets to improve to 6-8, while going for a season sweep of the Cowboys. Dallas took care of its business in a 31-15 rout of struggling Tampa Bay as seven-point favorites for its eighth win of the season, as the Cowboys halted a four-game ATS skid.

The last time these teams hooked up in Philadelphia, the Eagles racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in a 34-7 thumping of the Cowboys as three-point favorites. Michael Vick threw two touchdown passes, while LeSean McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two scores for their first home win of the season in Week 8. That loss by the Cowboys snapped a 5-0 ATS run in the series, while Dallas has won three of the last four home meetings with the Eagles. Dallas needs to get back on track as a favorite, going 2-5 ATS the last seven games in the 'chalk' role.

Announcement

The Bum's NFL Week # 16 Best Bets + MNF GOY !

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