NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/15 - 12/19)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 18

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Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Chargers
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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (+2.5, 44.5)

THE STORY: The Baltimore Ravens are locked in a four-team fight for the best record in the AFC in what promises to be a suspenseful finish to the regular season. The Ravens, though, can remove much of the drama by winning their final three games, which would ensure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Baltimore's biggest hurdle to winning out could come Sunday night, when it travels to San Diego to take on a Chargers team that again is looking much better than their record (6-7). The Ravens have ripped off four consecutive victories, but will face a stern test against San Diego, which has posted back-to-back lopsided wins.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Ravens opened as a field-goal favorite on the road but was bet down below the key number to -2.5. The total has climbed a bit from 43.5 to 45 points.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS): Baltimore’s winning streak has come without star LB Ray Lewis, who has sat out four games with a toe injury. LB Terrell Suggs has stepped up in his absence, recording three sacks and three forced fumbles in last week’s 24-10 win over hapless Indianapolis. The Ravens have allowed only 26 points in their last three wins and are third in the league in scoring defense (15.5 ppg). RB Ray Rice had his second straight 100-yard effort to go over 1,000 yards for the season. His 53 receptions lead all NFL running backs.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (6-7, 4-9 ATS): San Diego has rebounded from a seven-game losing streak by outscoring its last two opponents 75-24. QB Philip Rivers entered December leading the league in interceptions (17), but he has thrown three TD passes in the routs of Jacksonville and Buffalo and hasn’t been picked off. Second-year RB Ryan Mathews has three consecutive 100-yard games and needs 57 to reach 1,000 for the season. Since 2006, San Diego has posted an NFL-best 20-1 record over the final four weeks of the season. S Eric Weddle is tied for the league lead with seven interceptions.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rivers is 22-2 in December for his career, the best mark in the Super Bowl era.

2. Baltimore has not won five straight games since November 2006.

3. Chargers TE Antonio Gates needs five receptions to surpass Charlie Joiner (586) for the most in franchise history.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

PREDICTION: Chargers 27, Ravens 24 - The kings of December put a dent in Baltimore’s bid for the No 1 seed in the AFC.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 19

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What bettors need to know: Steelers at 49ers
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Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers could be without two key players for Monday night’s matchup with the host San Francisco 49ers. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a severe high ankle sprain that has kept him from practicing through Thursday. Being without the two-time Super Bowl-winning QB is not an appealing thought for the Steelers, particularly when going up against a defense that has surrendered the fewest points in the league this season. Pittsburgh LB James Harrison is expected to miss the contest after he was suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cleveland Browns QB Colt McCoy. The Niners have wrapped up the NFC West, but have lost two of their last three games.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: 49ers -3, O/U 38. San Francisco is holding steady as a 3-point favorite, while the total opened at 39 and could be found as low as 37.5 Sunday afternoon.

WEATHER: Meteorologists expect clear skies with light winds and a temperature around 52 degrees.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-3): Pittsburgh has won four straight to remain in a four-way tie for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers have been dominant defensively since their bye week, allowing a total of 19 points in their last three games. They could be tested without Harrison, who has 8.0 sacks despite missing four games due to injury. Roethlisberger played the second half of a 14-3 win over Cleveland despite the ankle injury, but said the pain feels worse this week. He has not missed a game because of injury since December 2009. Charlie Batch will start if Roethlisberger can’t go.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-3): San Francisco blew a 12-point second-half lead in a 21-19 loss at Arizona last week. Stud MLB Patrick Willis sat out his second straight game with a hamstring injury. The Niners have struggled to find the end zone, getting 10 field goals from David Akers in the past three games. RB Frank Gore ripped off five straight 100-yard games earlier in the season, but has been dealing with injuries and has not surpassed 88 yards in his last five. QB Alex Smith is coming off one of his worst games, failing to complete half his passes and throwing for 175 yards.

TRENDS:
- Pittsburgh is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 games as an underdog.
- San Francisco is 8-0 against the number in its last eight as a home favorite.
- The over is 6-2 in Pittsburgh's last eight road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 contests and is the first team to not surrender a rushing TD in the first 13 games.

2. Pittsburgh has won its last six appearances on Monday Night Football.

3. This will mark only the third meeting between the teams in nine seasons. The 49ers hold a 10-9 all-time series edge.

PREDICTION: Steelers 16, 49ers 13. Even with a hobbled Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh’s offense has a leg up on the Niners.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 19

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Tale of the tape: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
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Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38.5)

Offense

The big question here is obviously Ben Roethlisberger’s status. He’s still questionable with his high ankle sprain but did manage to complete 16 of his 21 pass attempts last week against Cleveland with two touchdowns and one interception. Pittsburgh’s rushing offense ranks just 17th (114.5 yards per game) with Rashard Mendenhall struggling to replicate last year’s career season. He has just one 100-yard rushing game this year and averages 3.8 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Frank Gore is carrying the load for San Francisco with 1054 rushing yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The 49ers rank seventh in rushing offense and have a league-low 10 turnovers this season as Alex Smith completes 61.7 percent of his throws. However, the Niners have scored majors in just 35.6 percent of their red zone trips and Smith has been sacked 18 times over the last three games.

As long as Roethlisberger plays, the Steelers have the decided edge.

Edge: Steelers


Defense

The 49ers lead the league in both scoring defense (14 points per game) and rushing yards (70.5 yards per game). They still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year and sit second in the league with 31 takeaways. Last week they held the Cardinals to 55 rushing yards, but John Skeleton did throw for 282 yards and three touchdowns. San Francisco ranks 19th in passing defense, giving up 234.5 yards per game through the air.

There isn’t a soft spot in Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers sit second in total defense and scoring defense (15.2 points per game) while leading the league in passing defense (179.1 yards per game). They have allowed just one touchdown over the last three games and are beginning to force turnovers again. They still have only 14 takeaways on the year, but eight of those have come over that three-game span.

Edge: Steelers


Special teams

San Francisco leads the league averaging 28 yards per kickoff return and sits fourth in punt returns at 12.3 yards per attempt. Ted Ginn Jr. is a major weapon and has already taken a punt and a kick back for touchdowns this year. The 49ers also have a solid edge in the kicking game. David Akers has hit 36 of his 42 field goal tries with a long of 55 yards while punter Andy Lee is tied for first in the league with a 50.7-yard average. Pittsburgh’s Shaun Suisham has hit just 75 percent of his kicks with a long of 49.

Edge: 49ers


Word on the street

“I could see him playing against the 49ers. I guess we won’t know for sure for a couple days, but with a late Monday night game and two more days to rest and rehab I think he’ll be all right to play. And I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.” – Pittsburgh guard Ramon Foster on Ben Roethlisberger’s status for Monday’s game.

"This week, we're going to hurry up and get to the line of scrimmage and get set. We've been a little slow in the last weeks at getting in the huddle, getting a play and getting to the line of scrimmage. We've got to give Alex a chance to see the defense so he can make the calls and give the line a better opportunity to see what's going on before we snap the ball." – San Francisco tight end Delanie Walker.


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 19

Steelers (10-3) @ 49ers (10-3)—If 49ers are going to make noise in playoffs, they better improve in red zone; in last three games, they’ve kicked FGs on all seven red zone drives. Not good. Both teams jockeying for home field edge in playoffs while missing key people, with Harrison (suspended) out here and Roethlisberger (ankle) a ?mark for Pitt, while Willis (hamstring) out for 49er squad that already won division title. Steelers played on Thursday last week, so they’ve had extra time to prepare/heal. Niners are +21 in turnovers this year, but lost in Arizona last week despite being +3, which doesn’t happen much in NFL. Pitt is just 7 of 29 on 3rd down the last three games. These teams play once every four years, so not often, but last seven series games were all won by 10+ points. Under is 4-1-1 in Steelers’ last six games, 6-1-1 in Niners’ last eight.

[jt4545]

Thanks for all the write ups, merry christmas

[Udog]

Thanks for all the write ups, merry christmas

Merry Christmas to you and yours, too, jt! Man, that loaded burger and potato salad sounds tooooo good today!

[Kaptain]

Thanks for all you do around here U Dog.....You and Star Dust Bum are wlking info books for us guys.....

Much appreciated.......Have a good Holiday week my man

[Udog]

Thanks for all you do around here U Dog.....You and Star Dust Bum are wlking info books for us guys.....

Much appreciated.......Have a good Holiday week my man

You have a good one, too, Kaptain! I hope you can pack it full of family, food and fun!