NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/15 - 12/19)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, December 15 - Monday, December 19

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 15 opening line report

It's Tebow Time up against the Golden Boy and sportsbooks couldn't be happier.

The two NFL icons meet in Week 15’s marquee matchup when the AFC West-leading Broncos host the AFC-East leading Patriots.

“It’s a beauty, ain’t it?” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello said. “The Patriots are always a popular team but in this matchup there could be equal liking for both.

“There’s no reason not to play Tebow right now – just the way he keeps his team in the game. On Sunday the crowd in the book was yelling, “Tebow! Tebow!” I haven’t heard that for too many players over the years.”

Denver’s miracle overtime win, 13-10 over Chicago, pushed the game for Broncos backers who laid 3 at the Wynn.

Covers.com’s official line was Denver -3.5, dropping Tebow to 6-2 against the spread since taking over at quarterback. The Broncos, however, have won six straight and seven of eight.

Avello opened Sunday’s game at home to the Patriots at -5.5, but the line was quickly bet up to 6. Most books are offering 6 or 6.5.

“If this number were made four weeks ago, you’re looking at 9.5 or 10,” said Lucky’s oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who was offering 6.5. “You have to give [Tebow] credit. No matter how you take him apart – good, bad, indifferent, divine intervention – the kid gets it done.”

Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club oddsmaking service in Las Vegas, sent out 6 to his clients. Korner wanted to recommend 7, but his partners overruled him.

“The teams that Denver has been beaten haven’t exactly been upper-tier teams and they’ve been fortunate to be in low-scoring games,” Korner said. “I don’t think Tebow can generate the offense to stay with New England, because I think New England is going to score 24, 30 points.”

At the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, the line opened at 6, dropped to 5 and has gone back to 6.

“The action is going to reflect your opinion of Tebow,” SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay said. “A lot of detractors certainly are going to support New England, and people on the other side are going to pick Tebow and this miracle team.

“This game comes down to: Would you rather be lucky than good?” Kornegay added. “Some people would rather be lucky.”

How much is Big Ben worth?

Many books are holding off on posting the Monday night line for Pittsburgh-San Francisco until Ben Roethlisberger’s status is clarified.

If it looks like Big Ben will play through his high ankle sprain, the line will be San Fran -2 or thereabouts. Without Big Ben, Pittsburgh could be as much as a 6-point underdog, oddsmakers said.

Pittsburgh coaches showed what they think of 37-year-old backup Charlie Batch by putting Big Ben back on the field for the second half against Cleveland.

It didn’t matter that Roethlisberger struggled to make handoffs and could not move in the pocket.

“I don’t really blame them,” Kornegay said, noting Batch’s age and rust. “Ben was able to throw a couple of passes from the pocket.

“Obviously, he can’t move and make the normal plays he makes every single game. If he plays, he’s got to be 80 percent at best and that’s also got to be reflected in the spread. You can’t just leave it as, ‘He’s going to play.’”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Kansas City (13.5, 45.5), Jacksonville at Atlanta (-11, 42.5)

Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will coach the Chiefs now that Todd Haley has been fired. The Packers will be without top wideout Greg Jennings, but that just means more opportunities for Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Detroit at Oakland (-1, 47.5), Baltimore at San Diego (1.5, 43.5)

The Lions probably would be on a three-game losing streak if the refs hadn’t missed a blatant facemask penalty in the final seconds Sunday against Minnesota.

They’re 2-6 ATS since starting 4-0-1 ATS.

The Ravens are 9-6 ATS as road favorites since coach John Harbaugh took over in 2008, and 29-20-3 ATS in conference games over that span.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Detroit at Oakland (-1, 47.5), Carolina at Houston (-6.5, 46.5), New England at Denver (6, 46), Dallas at Tampa Bay (6.5, 46)

The Bucs have given up 34.8 points per game over their last five, and have an 8-5 O/U mark.

Cam Newton’s talent, combined with his turnovers, has helped Carolina post an 8-5 0/U mark too.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Seattle at Chicago (-4, 36), Cleveland at Arizona (-6.5, 37.5)

The Bears are averaging 11 points in Caleb Hanie’s three starts. However, under coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have posted a 9-5 O/U mark as road dogs.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Jacksonville at Atlanta
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Jacksonville team that is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Atlanta is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11).. Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15

Game 301-302: Jacksonville at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.002; Atlanta 139.356
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 11; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17

Game 303-304: Dallas at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.198; Tampa Bay 121.122
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: Washington at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.318; NY Giants 133.451
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 307-308: Green Bay at Kansas City (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.187; Kansas City 127.773
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: New Orleans at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 139.647; Minnesota 128.248
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Under

Game 311-312: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 126.644; Chicago 134.045
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.407; Buffalo 124.573
Dunkel Line: Miami by 7; 43
Vegas Line: Miami by 1 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); N/A

Game 315-316: Carolina at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.517; Houston 141.957
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 317-318: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.875; Indianapolis 123.907
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.082; St. Louis 124.581
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.491; Oakland 128.908
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Over

Game 323-324: New England at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.842; Denver 134.969
Dunkel Line: New England by 4; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.794; Philadelphia 135.425
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Cleveland at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.245 Arizona 134.093
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Baltimore at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.469; San Diego 139.420
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 19

Game 331-332: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.647; San Francisco 137.795
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 34
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); N/A

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

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Thursday, December 15

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 9) at ATLANTA (8 - 5) - 12/15/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 17

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DALLAS (7 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/17/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DALLAS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 18

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WASHINGTON (4 - 9) at NY GIANTS (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (13 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) at MINNESOTA (2 - 11) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 7) at CHICAGO (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 9) at BUFFALO (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at HOUSTON (10 - 3) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 13) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (7 - 6) at ST LOUIS (2 - 11) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-123 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (8 - 5) at OAKLAND (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 33-63 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-46 ATS (-27.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 3) at DENVER (8 - 5) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 142-107 ATS (+24.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (8 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (4 - 9) at ARIZONA (6 - 7) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (10 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) - 12/18/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 19

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PITTSBURGH (10 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 3) - 12/19/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, 12/15/2011

JACKSONVILLE at ATLANTA, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
JACKSONVILLE: 6-0 Under in road games
ATLANTA: 7-0 Under off SU win


Saturday, 12/17/2011

DALLAS at TAMPA BAY, 8:20 PM ET
DALLAS: 3-15 ATS as favorite
TAMPA BAY: 14-3 ATS off SU loss as road favorite


Sunday, 12/18/2011

WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off road win

GREEN BAY at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS vs. "bad team" (win pct of .250 to .400)
KANSAS CITY: 9-0 Under after being outrushed by 75+ yards

NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-1 ATS in dome games
MINNESOTA: 5-1 Over at home vs. New Orleans

SEATTLE at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 5-15 ATS as road underdog
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under off loss by 6 pts or less

MIAMI at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 10-0 Under playing with 6 days or less rest
BUFFALO: 9-1 Under in December

CAROLINA at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 1-9 ATS as road underdog of 7 pts or less
HOUSTON: 6-0 Under in home games

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 10-2 Under at Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 0-6 ATS off double digit loss

CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-1 Over on turf
ST LOUIS: 1-6 ATS in dome games

DETROIT at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
DETROIT: 4-14 ATS as road favorite
OAKLAND: 6-0 Over off non-conf game

NEW ENGLAND at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 22-8 Over in all games
DENVER: 9-2 Over off an Under

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 14-3 Over in road games
PHILADELPHIA: 1-5 ATS in home games

CLEVELAND at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-0 ATS Away off division game
ARIZONA: 4-14 ATS at home off BB wins

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
SAN DIEGO: 9-2 Under at home vs. AFC


Monday, 12/19/2011

PITTSBURGH at SAN FRANCISCO, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
PITTSBURGH: 5-1 ATS off ATS loss
SAN FRANCISCO: 24-9 ATS on Monday Night Football

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 15

8:20 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 13 games
Atlanta is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Atlanta is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games


Saturday, December 17

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. TAMPA BAY
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas


Sunday, December 18

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. HOUSTON
Carolina is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
NY Jets are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ARIZONA
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-13-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Arizona is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN DIEGO
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games


Monday, December 19

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

week 15

Jaguars (4-9) @ Falcons (8-5)—Special game for Atlanta coach Smith (Jax DC from 2003-7), but he had chest pains after Sunday’s win and spent extra night in Charlotte, so unsure if game planning on short week was affected. Falcons are 4-2 at home this year (losing to Packers/Saints), 1-2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 4-14-6-10 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 29-6-4-10-4 points; they scored 41 unanswered points in home win over Bucs Sunday- only one of their last six losses was by more than 10 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, splitting pair here, with average total 32. AFC South road underdogs are 8-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional play; NFC South home favorites are 7-4-2. Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under total; both Jaguar games since Del Rio got fired went over.

Cowboys (7-6) @ Buccaneers (4-9)—9 of 13 Cowboy games this year were decided by 4 or less points or in OT, including last four, with Pokes losing last two weeks in agonizing fashion; now they visit freefalling Bucs squad that lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), giving up 41 unanswered points to bad Jaguar team last week. Dallas won 11 of 14 series games, winning last three by combined score of 85-40; Bucs scored 16 or less points in four of last five series games. Cowboys are 2-4 on road, with both wins coming in OT (@ 49ers/ Redskins); they’re 2-7-1 as a favorite this year, 0-2-1 on road. Bucs are 2-6 as a dog, 1-1 at home. Pokes split last four visits here, winning 34-21 in last visit here, in ’09 opener. NFC East favorites are 6-13-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-4-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 6-8, 2-2 at home. Four of Bucs’ last five home games stayed under total.

Redskins (4-9) @ Giants (7-6)—Washington lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points, with wins at St Louis/Seattle; Skins (+3) upset Giants 28-14 in season opener, getting pick-6 in 3rd quarter that turned tide in even game, ending Giants’ 6-game series win streak. Big Blue was 1-10 on 3rd down in that game. Redskins lost six of last seven visits here, losing last three by 9-6-24 points; they scored 14 or less points in five of last seven series games. Giants are 1-3-1 as home favorite, 3-3 SU, losing last two at home to Eagles/Packers- their comeback win in Dallas last week ended 4-game skid, put them atop weak NFC East, where underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in divisional games this season (under 5-3). Last four Washington games, four of last five Giant games went over the total.

Packers (13-0) @ Chiefs (5-8)—Firing coaches in midseason rarely helps, just creates more work for remaining job-hunting assistants with holidays around corner, so Haley’s departure makes beating unbeaten Pack even dicier proposition. Last true road game of season for Green Bay team that is 4-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 7-10-11-6-7-12-3 points (five of seven foes are playoff contenders). In their last six games, Chiefs have three offensive TDs on 66 drives, with one TD scored on Hail Mary; they’ve scored total of 22 points in last three games at Arrowhead, where they’re 2-4 this year, but 3-0 as underdog, with home losses by 34-28-7-4 points, and wins over Vikings/ Chargers. Over is 6-1 in last seven Packer games, 2-9 in Chiefs’ last 11 contests. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 22-22-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Saints (10-3) @ Vikings (2-11)—Red-hot New Orleans won/covered last five games, are tied for #2 slot in NFC that comes with cherished first round bye, but 49ers own tiebreak, so pressure on Who-Dats to keep winning here. Saints lost last five visits here, with last visit in ’05- their last win in this building was in ’93; NO is 4-3 on road, 2-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 13-3-3-5 points, with losses to Pack/Rams/Bucs. Minnesota lost last five games (1-3-1 vs spread) but got spark from mobile QB Webb last week (had 65-yard TD run) in controversial loss at Detroit. Five of Vikings’ last seven games were decided by six or less points- Minnesota is 5-3-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 at home. NFC North underdogs are 6-4, 1-1 at home. NFC south favorites are 11-9-2, 4-5 on foreign soil. Over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight games, 1-4 in Saints’ last five.

Seahawks (6-7) @ Bears (7-6)—Chicago 0-3 with Hanie at QB after being Tebow-ed in Denver last week, blowing 10-0 lead with 3:15 left; in last two games, Chicago has one offensive TD on 27 drives, with 16 3/outs, going 2-26 on 3rd down. Bears are 4-2 as favorite this year, 3-2 at home. Seattle travels east on short work week after lethargic MNF win; Seahawks won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 7-2-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 3-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 16-24-3-10, with wins at Giants/Rams. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Seattle losing 35-24 in playoffs here last January, after Hawks had upset Chicago here during season. NFC North favorites are 12-10 vs spread, 8-7 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-7-1 vs spread. Seahawks’ last three games all went over the total.

Dolphins (4-9) @ Bills (5-8)—Impossible to endorse visitors from South Beach in potentially frigid western NY after they canned Sparano Monday, after Fish had covered six of seven games, winning four of last six SU; Dolphins are 1-5 on road, 4-2 as road underdogs, with three losses by 3 or less points. Miami (-2) hammered Bills 35-8 at home four weeks ago, blocking punt for TD, also scoring on TD drives of 23-4 yards. Series has been swept in nine of last 12 years; Fish lost five of last six visits here, but also beat Bills in Toronto during that time. Free-falling Buffalo lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); after running ball for 138+ yards in five of first seven games, Bills averaged just 80 rushing yards over last four weeks and converted just 17 of last 54 on 3rd down. Bills are 3-2 at home, but their last home win was October 9. Under is 10-1-1 in last dozen Miami games.

Panthers (4-9) @ Texans (10-3)—Not sure how first-time division champ Texans will react to prosperity after being patted on back all week by locals; they had celebration at stadium when team returned home from Cincy last Sunday. One motivating factor to keep playing is first-round bye that they’re currently tied for. Houston won/covered last seven games- they’re 4-1 as home favorites, winning at Reliant by 27-7-10-18-7 points, with only loss to Raiders. Carolina is 4-0 when it allows 20 or less points, 0-9 when it allows more; they’re 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-14-14 points. Panthers haven’t beaten team with winning record this season. Texans won only two series games, 14-10/34-21, with last meeting in ’07. AFC South home favorites are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South road underdogs are 4-6. Last four Panther games went over.

Titans (7-6) @ Colts (0-13)—Rookie Locker likely to get first NFL start here for Titans, vs awful Indy squad that is 1-5 vs spread at home, losing by 8-3-4-24-14-8 points at Lucas Oil Field; Colts got backdoor covers as double digit road dogs last two weeks, after being 0-7 vs spread in previous seven games. Titans (-9) beat Indy 27-10 at home in Week 8, blocking punt for TD in game where Colts outrushed them 158-96 and outgained them by 78 yards for game, but scored only 10 points on four trips to Titan red zone. Tennessee is 2-3 as favorite this year, all at home; they’re 3-3 at home, winning by 18-27-6 points. Home underdogs are 10-10 vs spread in divisional games, 2-6 in AFC, 0-2 in AFC South. Last seven Tennessee games stayed under the total. Colts allowed 141+ rushing yards in four of last five games, good news for Chris Johnson’s fantasy owners.

Jets (8-5) @ Eagles (5-8)—Philly is 8-0 all-time vs Jets, with five of last seven wins by 7+ points, but this is just second visit here since ’78 by Gang Green (0-4 in Philly, losing by average of 23-12), which won last three games overall, and is in thick of playoff race, while Iggles need lot of help to get in. Jets are 7-0 when they score more than 24 points, 0-4 when they score less, 1-1 when they get exactly 24; Eagles allowed 13 or less points in all five wins, 21+ in all eight losses. Philly is 0-4 vs spread the week following a win this season; they had consecutive wins, but had Week 7 bye in between; Eagles are ghastly 1-5 at home this year, crushing Dallas in Week 8; they’re 3-7 vs spread when favored. NFC East home favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 6-4. Four of Jets’ last five games went over total.

Bengals (7-6) @ Rams (2-11)—Cincy’s playoff hopes took jolt with last-second loss to Texans last week, their 4th loss in last five games, now they can take frustrations out on awful St Louis squad that is on short work week after dismal 30-13 loss Monday night. Five of Cincinnati’s seven wins are by 7+ points- they’re 2-3 as favorites, 4-3 SU on road, with wins by 10-10-22-7 points, losing to Broncos-Steelers-Ravens. Rams haven’t covered any of their 11 losses, losing at home by 18-30-7-17-3 points, but they did somehow upset the Saints at home. In six games since beating Saints, Rams have four offensive TDs on 72 drives, with 11 turnovers/28 3-outs. Rams won three of last four series games; Bengals are 0-2 in this dome, with last visit in ’03. Over is 3-0-1 in Bengals’ last four games. Remember, bad teams don’t have much home field advantage.

Lions (8-5) @ Raiders (7-6)—Suh expected back for Detroit in battle of heavily-penalized, contending teams hungry for wins; Lions were +6 in turnovers last week and still almost lost at home to Vikings, which would’ve been unheard of. Detroit is 4-2 on road; they’re only team to beat Tebow, winning 45-10 at Denver in Week 8. Raiders got smoked 34-14/46-16 on road last two weeks, getting outscored 44-0 in first half; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 with Palmer at QB, beating Cutler-less Bears last home game. In last three games, Lions have 265 penalty yards, their opponents 121. Lions lost three of four visits here, winning last one 36-21 in ’07. Oakland is 6-1 with 2+ takeaways, 1-5 with less; Lions turned ball over 2+ times in only three of 13 games. Detroit won last two series games by 10-15 points, after losing six of first eight meetings. Three of last four Oakland games went over the total.

Patriots (10-3) @ Broncos (8-5)—Tebow is 7-1 as starter, winning last four games by 4 or less points in inexplicable fashion reminiscent of George Blanda in ’71. New England is 10-3 despite allowing 20+ points in nine games; they’re susceptible to passing attacks, which means they’re safe here for first three quarters. Patriots won last five games, getting backdoored by Orlovsky/ Grossman last two weeks; they’re 5-7 as a favorite, 3-3 on road, winning away games by 14-12-21-18-7, losing at Bills/Steelers. Last time teams met was in ‘09, Denver won in OT, Josh McDaniels strutted around Invesco like Hulk Hogan and Tebow was still in Gainesville; that was Denver’s fourth win in last five series games. Pats lost last three visits here by 8-14-3 points- their last win here was in ’03. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-5 vs spread; AFC West home underdogs are 4-3.

[Udog]

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 15 betting notes

You know it’s getting late in the NFL regular season when the league starts scattering games all over the weekly calendar. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. This week, we’ve got contests on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. To the poolies cheat sheet we go:

Jacksonville at Atlanta (-11)

Why Jaguars cover: Relatively speaking, this team on fire from a scoring standpoint. After failing to break 20 points all season long, the Jags blew up for 41 consecutive points in Sunday’s 41-14 rout of Tampa Bay. Atlanta has cashed just once in the past five weeks (1-3-1 against the spread) and that required a comeback last weekend against Carolina.

Why Falcons cover: Even after their 41-point outburst, the Jags still sit 28th in league in scoring, at 14.8 ppg. Atlanta’s 7-2 ATS (against the spread) in its last nine December starts and 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 against losing teams. The Jags are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 against winning teams.

Total (42.5): Before last week’s game vs. Carolina, Atlanta was on tear of eight straight unders. Jacksonville has gone over in each of the last two weeks but is still 10-3 to the under on the season. The Jags have watched the total go low in six straight on the highway.

Dallas (-7) at Tampa Bay

Why Cowboys cover: The Cowboys are playing the Bucs, who just gave up 41 points to the awful Jaguars. And the Cowboys have no room to mess around against Tampa after stinging losses to the Cardinals and Giants. At home, the Bucs are in ATS slumps of 6-20 overall and 5-16 when getting points.

Why Buccaneers cover: Well, if they really like Raheem Morris as coach, it would serve them well to show it. The Bucs have dumped seven in a row SU (straight up), going 1-6 against the number over that span. They could be playing for Morris’ job here, so perhaps that’s some incentive. Dallas is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 when laying points and 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 in December.

Total (47): Tampa has given up 24 points or more in every game of its seven-game slide, including 35 or more four times. The over is 18-8 in Dallas’ last 26 overall.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Minnesota

Why Saints cover: They are hotter than a supermodel on the sun, winning and covering five in a row and six of their last seven. Minnesota, meanwhile, has lost five in a row straight up (1-3-1 ATS) and seems to have a QB quandary – rookie Christian Ponder was yanked after a dismal two-plus quarters against Detroit, and Joe Webb nearly pulled off a stunning comeback.

Why Vikings cover: They are 5-1 ATS in the last six of this rivalry and the Saints tend to play down to the level of competition, at 3-11 ATS in their last 14 against losing teams.

Total (50.5): Total has gone low in four of the last five for New Orleans, but the Saints average 31.9 ppg (second in NFL), and the over is 6-1 in Minny’s last seven at home. The over is also 5-1 in the last six Saints-Vikes matchups.

Carolina at Houston (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: This team is better than its 4-9 SU record suggests. They’ve lost six games this season in which they’ve led or been tied in the fourth quarter. Once Cam Newton figures out how to stop throwing more INTs (16) than TDs (15), they’ll be the real deal. Carolina’s 15-6 ATS in its last 21 December outings.

Why Texans cover: Even with rookie T.J. Yates at QB, they’re still winning and covering, going 6-0-1 ATS during their current seven-game SU run. This team is contending for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so it has plenty of incentive. The Panthers are on pointspread dives of 4-12 when catching points and 3-9 against winning teams.

Total (45.5): Something’s got to give here. Carolina’s on over runs of 5-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 as an underdog and 7-3-1 on the highway. Houston is on under surges of 5-1 at home and 6-2 as a chalk.

Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City

Why Packers cover: During their eye-popping 19-game SU win streak, they’ve cashed 14 times. That includes four covers as double-digit favorites this season. The Chiefs are in disarray after firing coach Todd Haley on Monday while the Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 roadies and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in December.

Why Chiefs cover: Bad as they are, they’re still a good underdog. They are riding ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 as a home pup, and 12-4 when getting more than 10 points. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in the last six as a road chalk of more than 10 points.

Total (46): The Chiefs have scored 10 points or fewer in six straight games and the under has cashed in six of the last seven for K.C. Conversely, the Packers average a league-best 35.8 ppg, with over hitting in six of their last seven games. An average Green Bay outing wouldn’t leave much work for K.C. to reach the over.

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)

Why Seahawks cover: They’re hot, and Chicago’s not. The Seahawks have won four of last five SU and five of last six ATS. Running back Marshawn Lynch has 109 yards or more in five of last six games, along with six TDs in that stretch. The Bears have lost three straight without QB Jay Cutler.

Why Bears cover: They’re dying for a win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five when laying points. The Seahawks are riding ATS skids of 16-34-2 on the highway and 8-20-1 as road pups.

Total (35.5): Lots of over trends for both teams. Plus, the over has cashed in six overall and the last four in Windy City.

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis

Why Titans cover: They’d covered five of six before Sunday’s 22-17 loss to New Orleans and they nearly got the outright upset. Winless Indy (4-9 ATS) has failed to cash in its last four at home and the last four inside AFC South. The Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in this rivalry.

Why Colts cover: Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck’s status is uncertain due to calf injury. Plus, Indy has covered two in a row, following seven consecutive pointspread setbacks. The Colts are also 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs. winning teams.

Total (41): Under has been big for both teams lately, hitting seven straight for Tennessee and five of six for Indianapolis. This division rivalry is littered with unders – 11-2 in the last 13 overall and 6-0 in the last six in Indy.

Washington at N.Y. Giants (-6.5)

Why Redskins cover: As bad as Mike Shanahan’s troops are, losing eight of last nine SU, they’ve at least been a little better lately against the spread by covering three of the last four. They fell just short of pushing Patriots to overtime last weekend. The Redskins also like division play, cashing five of the last six in the NFC East.

Why Giants cover: After knocking off Dallas on the road last week, they are due for a good game at home, where they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five. Tom Coughlin’s squad will also be looking for some payback after getting ripped 28-14 at Washington in the season opener.

Total (46.5): The score has played under in seven of the last eight ‘Skins-Giants meetings at the Meadowlands. The over is on runs of 4-0 for Washington and 4-1 for New York.

Miami at Buffalo

Why Dolphins cover: They’ll be inspired by firing of coach Tony Sparano. They covered six in a row before falling to Philadelphia last week. They were due for a little letdown.

Why Bills cover: The Bills have dumped six in a row SU (1-5 ATS) and are due for a decent game at some point.

Total: The under has been the big play for Miami all season, going 10-2-1. The under has also cashed in 10 of Buffalo’s last 11 in December and 8-3 in the team’s last 11 at Orchard Park.

Cincinnati (-6) at St. Louis

Why Bengals cover: Their playoff hopes are dangling by a thread, but this is a good team well overdue for some good luck. They’ve lost four of their last five, but those losses were all by one score or less against playoff-bound teams. St. Louis is the league’s worst team ATS (2-11).

Why Rams cover: Seriously, all the Rams can hope for is that Cincy’s current 0-4-1 ATS funk continues.

Total (38.5): St. Louis averages a league-low 11.8 ppg and the under has cashed in seven of the last 10. However, Cincy’s on several over runs including 8-2 overall and 5-0 as a chalk.

Detroit (-1) at Oakland

Why Lions cover: Defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh returns from two-game suspension and Detroit needs him to continue its push for a NFC wild-card spot. The Raiders were pummeled over the last two weeks (at Miami and at Green Bay) by a combined score of 80-30. The Raiders are 20-43 ATS in the last 63 in December.

Why Raiders cover: Last week’s loss to the Packers notwithstanding, Oakland’s generally a good bounce-back bet. The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in the last nine off a SU loss and 14-4 ATS in the last 18 off an ATS loss. Detroit’s 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 as a road chalk.

Total (47.5): The over is on a 7-1-1 run in the Lions’ last nine roadies, 4-0 in the Raiders’ last four overall. The over is also 7-3 at home for Oakland and 5-1 with the Raiders catching points at Coliseum.

New England (-6) at Denver

Why Patriots cover: At some point, the Broncos’ good fortune will go up in smoke. New England is the best team Denver has faced during the Tebow Mania craze, and the Pats have covered eight of their last 11 road games.

Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow has led Denver to seven wins in eight games. The Broncos have covered in six of those – five from the underdog role. So this game sets up perfect for the Mile High Messiah. The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying points, 1-4 ATS in the last five vs. the Broncos, and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Denver.

Total (45.5): In Tebow’s eight starts, Denver has scored 18 or fewer points. But New England averages 30.5 points per game and a defense that’s allowed 20 or more points nine times this year. The over is 12-4 in the Pats’ last 16 roadies and in the Broncos’ last 16 at home.

N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (-3)

Why Jets cover: Clinging to sixth and final playoff spot in AFC, they need this game. They’ve won their last three while cashing in their last two outings. Philly is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home.

Why Eagles cover: There’s no pressure here with a playoff sport out of the question, so they can play fast and loose. All the pressure is on the Jets, and Philly’s talent is far better than its 5-8 SU and ATS record indicates.

Total (44): If Jets are playing the over is in play. The Jets have played over in all three games during their current upswing. The Jets also have the over on streaks of 23-8 overall, 13-3-1 with New York set as a pup, and 9-2 with Gang Green pegged as a road underdog.

Cleveland at Arizona (-7)

Why Browns cover: They’re not very good, but they have covered in three of their last four. That’s about all I’ve got in their defense.

Why Cardinals cover: Upended 49ers last week to continue a nice roll in which they’ve won five of six SU and six of seven ATS. Cleveland’s averaging just 13.7 ppg (30th) and could be without QB Colt McCoy (concussion).

Total (37.5): Cleveland’s scoring impotence has led to under streaks of 4-1 overall and 8-3 when the Browns are catching points.

Baltimore (-1.5) at San Diego

Why Ravens cover: This team is gunning for No. 1 seed in AFC playoff chase and has won four in a row by average of more than 11 points per game. The Bolts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

Why Chargers cover: They still have a sliver of chance in AFC West, but they’ve got to win outright. San Diego’s a worthy underdog, with ATS runs of 22-9-3 when getting points and 5-1 as a home pup.

Total (44.5): Qualcomm Stadium is the home of unders lately, with total staying low in 10 of the last 11. The Ravens’ defense is yielding just 15.5 ppg (third).

Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Why Steelers cover: Like Baltimore and New England, they’re battling for the No. 1 seed. So this West Coast trip is a huge one for Pittsburgh, which has cashed in the last four following an ATS loss.

Why 49ers cover: Despite upset loss at Arizona last week, they are still No. 1 in the NFL at 10-2-1 ATS and really want to beat out the Saints for the No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. It won’t hurt to be at home, where San Fran has won and cashed in five straight and six of seven this year. In fact, Jim Harbaugh’s troops are 17-6-3 ATS in the last 26 at home. Plus, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is hobbled, and star defender James Harrison may be serving a one-game suspension.

Total: The Niners’ defense is No. 1 in the league, yielding a meager 14.0 ppg. Pittsburgh is No. 2 allowing just 15.2 ppg.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 15

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Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Falcons
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)

THE STORY: The Atlanta Falcons were seeing their playoff hopes taking a major hit on Sunday after staring at a 16-point halftime deficit on the road. Enter Matty Ice. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three second-half touchdown passes as the Falcons reeled off 24 unanswered points in a 31-23 victory at Carolina. With a short turnaround heading into Thursday night's home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it was just the spark needed by Atlanta, which is tied with Detroit for the final two playoff slots in the NFC with three weeks to play. Atlanta also got a respite off the field when head coach Mike Smith was hospitalized with chest pains after the game, but was back with the team 24 hours later.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Falcons opened at -12 and have been bet down to -11 at most markets. The total has gone as low as 41.5 and as high as 43.5, but is sitting at 42.5 at the majority of books.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (4-9, 5-7-1 ATS): Maurice Jones-Drew scored a career-high four touchdowns – two rushing, two receiving – as Jacksonville snapped a three-game losing streak by pounding intrastate rival Tampa Bay 41-14. Interim coach Mel Tucker won his debut as the Jaguars forced seven turnovers and put up their most points since December 2007. Jacksonville had not scored more than 20 points this season prior to the outburst. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert surpassed 200 yards passing for only the third time as the Jaguars scored the final 27 points.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5, 5-7-1 ATS): Ryan tied his career high with four touchdown passes, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring strikes to rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Ryan threw for 320 yards and had a 120.5 passing rating, helping Atlanta improve to 21-0 when he has a passer rating above 100. WR Roddy White had seven receptions for 84 yards and scored a touchdown in his third straight game. TE Tony Gonzalez also had seven catches and went over 70 receptions for the ninth straight season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Jaguars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Falcons are 20-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 6-0 in Jaguars' last six road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Falcons' last nine games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jones-Drew set a franchise record with his 73rd TD last week. He needs two rushing TDs to eclipse the team record of 62 held by Fred Taylor.

2. White needs 36 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth consecutive season.

3. Atlanta RB Michael Turner went over 1,000 yards last week, the third time he’s done so in four seasons with the Falcons.

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Jaguars 13 - Atlanta rolls and denies Jacksonville’s bid for its first back-to-back wins this season.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 15

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Tale of the tape: Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons
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Thursday Night Football delivers some mid-week NFL action. Here's how the Jaguars and Falcons shake down in the tale of the tape:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)

Offense

The Jags offensive got a little help on the other side of the ball in last week’s 41-14 win over Tampa Bay. The Jacksonville defense returned two fumble recoveries for scores in the second quarter, then didn’t allow the Bucs to sniff the end zone after opening the game 14-0.

While the defensive did its part, the Jaguars’ beleaguered offense didn’t look too bad. They rode do-it-all running back Maurice Jones Drew for 136 yards of total offense, including two rushing and two receiving scores.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert had his second-biggest passing game of the season, going 19 for 33 for 217 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. However, that is slightly above par for the league’s worst attack, which averages only 140 passing yards and just over two touchdowns a game.

The Falcons offensive is nearly explosive as some predicted this season. Atlanta ranks around the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, sitting 10th in the NFL in passing with 254 yards through the air per contest.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has digressed a bit but is coming off a huge game against Carolina. He passed for 320 yards and four touchdowns versus the Panthers, finding rookie wideout Julio Jones for 104 of those gains and two scores.

Running back Michael Turner, who used to be the focal points of the Atlanta offense has seen less and less work over the past few weeks. Since rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, Turner has a total of just 179 yards and no scores in the last three outings.

Edge: Atlanta


Defense

For all its downfalls, Jacksonville still comes out to play tough defense every week. The Jaguars limited the Bucs to only two early scores before shutting the door and, outside of getting burned for 38 points against the Chargers, have been able to hold most opponents to under 20 points per game.

The secondary has been the bright spot, giving up only 191 passing yards per game. However, teams have been able to move the ball on the ground versus the Jags, so those numbers may be a bit skewed with opponents opting to running the ball.

Atlanta’s defense is stout against the run, giving up just 95 rushing yards per game – fifth best in the NFL. However, the Falcons gave up 157 yards and one touchdown on the ground to run-heavy Carolina last Sunday and were rolled by Houston’s top rushing attack for 162 yards and one score in Week 13.

Atlanta isn’t much sharper in the secondary, ranking 22nd in the league in defending the pass. The Falcons will be facing a rookie passer for the fifth straight week this Thursday, after getting beat up by first-year QBs Jake Locker, T.J. Yates, Christian Ponder and Cam Newton. Those four have thrown for an average of 197.5 yards with six touchdowns and only two interceptions – both coming last week off of Newton.

There is also a laundry list of injuries on the Falcons defense.

Edge: Jacksonville


Special teams

Atlanta and Jacksonville sit No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in kick goal percentage.

Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is splitting the uprights on more than 91 percent of his kicks and has been perfect on attempts inside of 40-yards this season.

Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee is connecting on 90 percent of his FG attempts and is also flawless from less than 40 yards away. He’s also an impressive 5 for 6 on field goals of 50 yards or more. Scobee left last week’s game with a leg strain, but is expected to play Thursday.

Deji Karim is the Jags primary kick returner, averaging just under 24 yards per return. Mike Thomas handles the punt return duties, but is among the lowest in the league with an average return of 4.4 yards per punt return,

Atlanta has return specialist Eric Weems, who is averaging 10.3 yards per punt return and 23 yards per kick return. Last season, Weems was one of the best return weapons in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on both a kick and punt runback. This year, he has yet to find the end zone on special teams.

Edge: Atlanta


Word on the street

“We’ve had a lot of injuries. That’s a big story. We’ve got guys coming in and out every day, especially this time of year with guys banged up. But we need bodies. A lot of new faces.” – Jaguars S Paul Posluszny talking about all the team’s injuries.

“I don’t want to get into the specifics of it, but I am feeling a lot better today than I did yesterday. There are some things I think I can do differently and that I probably need to do and we’ve started that, and that’s really about all I want to talk about it. I really truly would rather to talk about the game.” – Falcons head coach Mike Smith, who was hospitalized following last weekend’s game with chest pains.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 15

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NFL Total Bias: Week 15's best over/under bets
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Professional handicappers and meteorologists have a lot in common.

Both spend their days analyzing trends and statistics while secretly sneaking into the back room to consult crystal balls as they try to predict the future. Whether they’ll admit it or not, there’s more than a little chance involved in their success rates.

Both are absolutely thankless gigs too. Since it’s your job to get everything right, you only hear about it when you’re wrong.

You have to learn to make the most of your hot streaks while shrugging off the cold spells.

Thanks to global warming (or whatever else you want to attribute it to), we haven’t had to deal with any major weather issues apart from that freak rain storm in Carolina back in Week 3. Usually by this point in the year, we’ve already had a couple of snowstorms to contend with.

I may be in the minority here, but in all honesty I can’t wait until Mother Nature starts waving her magic wand on these games. I’m all for any improvements that makes the NFL more entertaining and marketable, but I’m a traditionalist when it comes to weather.

If you can’t win outdoors, you don’t deserve to win, which makes me begin to take a second look at teams like the Saints, Lions, Falcons, and even the Texans this time of year.

None of those teams should see major weather issues this week and while it still too early to start jumping all over lines based on the long-range forecast, it looks as though the elements could be a factor in at least a few games in Week 15.

Shockingly, it’s expected to be cold and windy in Chicago, with similar conditions in Buffalo and New York to go along with possibilities of snow.

As cold conditions threaten to impact those tilts, I’ve been enjoying a nice December warm front with my total picks. Sure, a 6-0 run isn’t anything to get worked up over, but at least it’s pushed my season record back to the land of respectability.

And I’m happy to enjoy my days in the sun when I can get them.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7, 47)

Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow told reporters earlier this week that if the team canned coach Raheem Morris it would “ruin” the club. I guess “ruin” is a relative term considering the Bucs have to be pretty close to rock-bottom as it is after losing seven straight games.

Nobody can seem to put their finger on what happened to this team, but it’s not rocket science. The Bucs overachieved last year and just aren’t that good this season.

Don’t get me wrong, they’re better than their 4-9 straight up record indicates, but when you’ve allowed at least 30 points in four of the last five, that speaks for itself.

The guy I can’t figure out in this mess is Josh Freeman. While he has had a lot of tipped balls that ended up as interceptions and his receivers haven’t exactly helped him out much, he’s playing well below his potential.

Maybe this is the game he gets back on track to help save Morris’ ass.

Pick: Over


Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 36)

If the Chicago Bears are going to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, they’re going to have to lose this prevent offense. Caleb Haine’s struggling with his decision making, but you need to take at least a few chances to keep defenses honest. He has the arm to get the ball downfield, so let him air it out a bit to stretch the coverage.

Last week’s collapse in Denver was a heartbreaker and you have to wonder how this offense will respond. My bet is we’re probably in for some more Barber-esque bonehead plays.

On the bright side for Bears backers, at least this stretch of offensive impotence will likely get Matt Forte a contract.

Pick: Under


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 41)

Something’s fishy with this line and even though I’ve tried to ignore it all week, I can’t get away from it.

I thought for sure we’d see an over/under in the mid-high 30s after Tennessee held New Orleans to just 22 points last week.

And I don’t think it matters much whether Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck starts for the Titans. The under is 12-1 in the last 13 games combined between these two teams and even though the Colts' offense has looked better lately, they're going to have a tough time against this defense.

Pick: Under

Last week's record: 3-0
Season record to date: 25-18


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[Udog]

NFL

Saturday, December 17

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Saturday Night Football: Cowboys at Buccaneers
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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7, 47)

THE STORY: The Dallas Cowboys were less than six minutes from putting a stranglehold on the NFC East race and a playoff berth a week ago. But, as has been the case for much of the season, the Cowboys couldn't stand prosperity, blew a 12-point lead in the final 3 1/2 minutes and dropped a 37-34 decision to the New York Giants, their bitter division rival. So, instead of holding a two-game lead with three to play, Dallas finds itself in a tie with the Giants atop the NFC East as it prepares to visit the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday night.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: Cowboys -7, O/U 46.5

WEATHER: Cloudy skies and 6-mph winds are in the forecast for Tampa. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 60s.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6, 4-8-1 ATS): Dallas did more than lose a football game against the Giants. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray was lost for the season with a fractured ankle. Murray had ripped off three 100-yard games and helped sparked a four-game winning streak, but his injury puts oft-injured Felix Jones back in the starting lineup. Jones ran for 106 yards on 16 carries against the Giants. QB Tony Romo threw a season-high four TD passes and guided Dallas into position for a game-tying field goal that was blocked. He has thrown for 15 scores and two interceptions in the last six games.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-9, 4-9 ATS): Since beating New Orleans on Oct. 16 to move to 4-2 on the season, Tampa Bay has unraveled, losing seven consecutive games. The Buccaneers were pounded at Jacksonville 41-14 last week, and they have absorbed a pair of brutal defeats at home during the skid, falling to Houston (37-9) and NFC South rival Carolina (38-19). Sore-armed QB Josh Freeman has thrown a league-high 18 interceptions after being picked off only six times last season. The defense has been equally inept by allowing an NFC-worst 370 points, including at least 35 points in four of the past five games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas, which has won the last three against the Bucs, signed veteran RB Sammy Morris this week.

2. Tampa Bay has not lost eight straight games since 1987.

3. “It’s great for you guys to scare my family half to death and talk about that stuff all throughout. ... For me, a chance to ruin (Cowboys coach) Jason Garrett’s season, and let you talk about him.” – Bucs coach Raheem Morris on rumors he could be fired.

TRENDS:

Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20. Dallas breezes to snap its two-game losing streak.



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[Udog]

NFL

Saturday, December 17

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Tale of the tape: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7, 47)

Offense

The Cowboys average 24.4 points (10th-most) thanks to a balanced attack. Tony Romo (26 TDs, 9 INTs) has terrific targets in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten. RB DeMarco Murray was lost for the season after fracturing an ankle last week, but Felix Jones can carry the load, as evidenced by his 137 total yards vs. the Giants.

Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman practiced fully this week after playing through shoulder discomfort in the blowout loss to Jacksonville. Even healthy, it’s hard to trust Freeman (12 TDs, 18 INTs), who has regressed in a big way. WR Dezmon Briscoe likely will start opposite Mike Williams with Arrelious Benn dealing with a concussion. LeGarrette Blount averages 5.0 yards per carry but has fumbled five times. The Bucs average 17.8 points (26th-most).

Edge: Dallas


Defense

DeMarcus Ware (15 sacks) leads a fierce Dallas pass rush, but the linebackers and secondary are subpar. The Cowboys give up 243.2 passing yards (24th) and 21.6 points per game (16th). Corner Terence Newman is no longer elite or even above average.

Tampa Bay just gave up 41 points to Jacksonville’s pathetic offense. The Bucs rank 31st in points allowed (28.5). Injuries have decimated the defensive front, and Tampa is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The only good news is that top corner Aqib Talib (hamstring) practiced fully and is expected to start.

Edge: Dallas


Special teams

The Cowboys have failed on crucial field-goal tries at the end of their last two games, with one getting blocked. But Dan Bailey is still 31 of 35 this season.

The Bucs’ Connor Barth is 24 of 26 on field-goal tries, including hitting 2 of 3 from 50-plus yards. Both teams are mediocre in the return game.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Word on the street

"I think he's proven to us that he can carry the ball more. We can throw it to him more. He carried the load (last Sunday night) and did a really nice job for us. And we've got a lot of confidence in him." – Dallas coach Jason Garrett’s on Felix Jones as a workhorse back in the absence of DeMarco Murray.

"The guys, they support me through wins, through losses, through whatever. I know there's a cloud outside the organization, but there's a ray of sunshine in the building." – Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris, whose job is in jeopardy due to the team’s seven-game skid.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 18

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NFL betting weather report: Week 15
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Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets in Week 15 of the season:

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 41)

It’s beginning to look a lot like Xmas in Buffalo. After a very mild December, the snow is back in town with a 42 percent chance of flurries Sunday. There will be an 11-mpg breeze blowing through Orchard Park, chilling temperatures into the low 30s.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 35.5)

Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 30s with the help of a 12-mph wind in Soldier Field, blowing SSW from corner to corner.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 18

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Game of the day: Patriots at Broncos
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+9, 47)

THE STORY: It's rare that Tom Brady enters an opposing NFL stadium and is looked at as “The other guy.” But that's the case this week, and it’s because Tim Tebow is converting non-believers one fourth-quarter comeback at a time. Tebow faces his biggest test of the season, however, as Brady and the AFC East-leading New England Patriots travel to Denver in hopes of ending the Broncos’ six-game winning streak. A polarizing figure, Tebow has silenced critics and resurrected the AFC West-leading Broncos’ season by winning seven of his eight starts. The Patriots, meanwhile, have won five straight and are one of four teams in the conference vying for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can clinch their eighth AFC East title in nine years with a win or a New York Jets' loss to Philadelphia. New England, however, is just 2-15 in Denver since 1969.

TV: CBS, 4:15 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Patriots opened as low as 5.5-point favorites and have climbed to -9 as of Saturday afternoon. The total has remained steady around 46 points.

ABOUT NEW ENGLAND (10-3, 7-6 ATS): Brady threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns in a closer-than-expected 34-27 win over Washington last week, but his sideline spat with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was the story. The two had a heated exchange after Brady threw a rare red-zone interception – his first in more than a month – late in the fourth quarter. Before the dust-up, Brady threw two touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski, who had six catches for a career-high 160 yards and set a single-season record for touchdowns by a tight end (15) in the process. Gronkowski has 10 scores in his last six games. The Patriots’ league-worst defense (416.0 ypg) gave up 170 yards on the ground to Washington, which is a concern as it prepares to face the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack (156.2 ypg).

ABOUT DENVER (8-5, 7-6 ATS): The Broncos were on the verge of being shut out at home for the first time in the franchise’s 52-year history last Sunday before they rallied for an improbable 13-10 overtime victory over Chicago. Tebow started 3 of 16 for 45 yards, but went 18 of 24 for 191 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and OT as Denver erased a 10-point deficit in the final 4:34 of regulation. Matt Prater sent the game to overtime with a 59-yard field goal and won it with a 51-yarder – his third straight game-winning kick – after Marion Barber fumbled in overtime. It was Tebow’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback in 11 starts – the most since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Tebow isn’t the only reason for the turnaround. Veteran RB Willis McGahee has an NFL-best six 100-yard games and is nearing his first 1,000-yard season since 2007. The defense, led by outstanding rookie LB Von Miller (11.5 sacks), is allowing an average of 15.6 points over the last five contests.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. NBC tried to “flex” this game into its prime-time slot since the matchup wasn’t protected at the start of the season by CBS, but Commissioner Roger Goodell stepped in.

2. “If you make bad plays, you are supposed to get yelled at by your coaches.” – Brady, on the confrontation with O’Brien.

3. Tebow’s completion percentage is an abysmal 39.4 percent in the first half this season, but it jumps to 61.3 in the fourth quarter.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.

PREDICTION: Patriots 31, Broncos 17 - Tebow Time? Not this time. Brady and New England build an insurmountable lead early.


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