2011-2012 BOWL Game Best Bets + BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR !

[StarDust Bum]

Hokies And Wolverines Set For Allstate Sugar Bowl

Who knew that a school's ability to fill hotel rooms was part of the calculations that go into the BCS Standings? Why, it's enough to make you wonder what the spread might be between Comic-Con and the Consumer Electronics Show if they ever met on a gridiron.

Relax. I'm not here to pour it on the Virginia Tech Hokies and Michigan Wolverines. It's not their fault that Sugar Bowl officials chose them over more deserving candidates such as Boise State and Kansas State. However, with the ACC and Big Ten each getting a second BCS payday, you can't blame the Big 12 and Mountain West conferences for getting their feathers a bit ruffled.

All of the controversy surrounding the selection of the Hokies and Wolverines aside, their Tuesday, Jan. 3 battle at the Superdome in New Orleans has the potential to be a very evenly matched contest. Oddsmakers opened Michigan as a slim 1-point favorite, with early green backing the Maize & Blue pushing that number up to -2½. The total has been stuck on 51 at most sports books, and kickoff is scheduled for a tad past 8:30 p.m. (ET) with ESPN on hand to deliver the broadcast.

Seeing Virginia Tech (11-2 straight up, 4-9 against the spread) in a BCS bowl is no surprise, and it's certainly not surprising to see the Hokies in the Sugar Bowl with this being their fifth appearance there under Frank Beamer. Heck, if not for those pesky Clemson Tigers, Beamer's bunch would have pushed Alabama out of the BCS Championship Game.

Michigan making it to one of the top-tier bowls is a bit of a shock, with the Wolverines coming off a lackluster 7-6 campaign a year ago to go 10-2 this season (8-4 ATS) under first-year head coach Brady Hoke.

The statistical similarities the two teams share start on the defensive side of the ball where each squad surrendered just 17.2 points per game, knotting them for seventh-fewest in the country. Va Tech's unit ranked 14th in the land giving up just over 313 yards per game, while Michigan isn't far behind in 17th (317.6 YPG). Both stop units fared well against the run – Hokies 16th allowing 108 rushing yards per contest, Wolverines 36th at 129 YPG – and that is where this game should get interesting given both schools sport offenses with solid ground games.

With Denard Robinson a dual threat under center for Michigan, the Wolverines ran up the nation's 12th-rated rushing attack that averaged nearly 236 yards each outing. The junior tallied about 97 of those yards himself, running for 1,163 yards in total, second most among all FBS quarterbacks.

Robinson was just one of two 1,000-yard rushers in the Wolverines backfield where Fitzgerald Toussaint scooted for 1,011 on the season, finishing up with three successive 100-yard games in wins over Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State.

The passing game saw Robinson throw for more than 2,000 yards with a decent 142.2 QB rating. However, his 18:14 TD:INT ratio leaves a little to be desired.

On the Virginia Tech side, junior tailback David Wilson paced a Hokies ground attack that is 30th in the land averaging almost 189 yards per game. Wilson had the bulk of that number, rumbling for over 125 per game and finishing fifth in the country with 1,627 yards.

The Hokies have a bit of a dual threat at QB themselves, though Logan Thomas is never going to be confused for Denard Robinson. Thomas ran for over 400 yards and scored 10 TDs using his feet, while passing for nearly 2,800 yards with 19 more scores (9 INT).

With both teams possessing strong defenses and their offenses relying more on running the ball, bettors might turn to historical trends between the two teams to help make their minds up. Alas, there is no gridiron history between the two schools with this the first-ever matchup. Recent bowl records for the two teams finds Va Tech 6-6, a span that starts with losing the 2000 National Championship to Florida State at this site, while Michigan is 4-6 in its last 10 postseason trips that started with an Orange Bowl win over Alabama in 2000.

The two teams did trend strongly to the 'under' this season, combining for a 16-8 mark below the total, though that should be tempered with the Wolverines going above the number in both of their final two games.


And this ladies and gentlemen is your BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR:

Tuesday, January 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Michigan - 8:30 PM ET ( Michigan -2.5 500 BGOY )

Virginia Tech - Under 51 500

Now should this game cover i'll have another BGOY 2

GOOD LUCK !!

[StarDust Bum]

Hokies And Wolverines Set For Allstate Sugar Bowl

Who knew that a school's ability to fill hotel rooms was part of the calculations that go into the BCS Standings? Why, it's enough to make you wonder what the spread might be between Comic-Con and the Consumer Electronics Show if they ever met on a gridiron.

Relax. I'm not here to pour it on the Virginia Tech Hokies and Michigan Wolverines. It's not their fault that Sugar Bowl officials chose them over more deserving candidates such as Boise State and Kansas State. However, with the ACC and Big Ten each getting a second BCS payday, you can't blame the Big 12 and Mountain West conferences for getting their feathers a bit ruffled.

All of the controversy surrounding the selection of the Hokies and Wolverines aside, their Tuesday, Jan. 3 battle at the Superdome in New Orleans has the potential to be a very evenly matched contest. Oddsmakers opened Michigan as a slim 1-point favorite, with early green backing the Maize & Blue pushing that number up to -2½. The total has been stuck on 51 at most sports books, and kickoff is scheduled for a tad past 8:30 p.m. (ET) with ESPN on hand to deliver the broadcast.

Seeing Virginia Tech (11-2 straight up, 4-9 against the spread) in a BCS bowl is no surprise, and it's certainly not surprising to see the Hokies in the Sugar Bowl with this being their fifth appearance there under Frank Beamer. Heck, if not for those pesky Clemson Tigers, Beamer's bunch would have pushed Alabama out of the BCS Championship Game.

Michigan making it to one of the top-tier bowls is a bit of a shock, with the Wolverines coming off a lackluster 7-6 campaign a year ago to go 10-2 this season (8-4 ATS) under first-year head coach Brady Hoke.

The statistical similarities the two teams share start on the defensive side of the ball where each squad surrendered just 17.2 points per game, knotting them for seventh-fewest in the country. Va Tech's unit ranked 14th in the land giving up just over 313 yards per game, while Michigan isn't far behind in 17th (317.6 YPG). Both stop units fared well against the run – Hokies 16th allowing 108 rushing yards per contest, Wolverines 36th at 129 YPG – and that is where this game should get interesting given both schools sport offenses with solid ground games.

With Denard Robinson a dual threat under center for Michigan, the Wolverines ran up the nation's 12th-rated rushing attack that averaged nearly 236 yards each outing. The junior tallied about 97 of those yards himself, running for 1,163 yards in total, second most among all FBS quarterbacks.

Robinson was just one of two 1,000-yard rushers in the Wolverines backfield where Fitzgerald Toussaint scooted for 1,011 on the season, finishing up with three successive 100-yard games in wins over Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State.

The passing game saw Robinson throw for more than 2,000 yards with a decent 142.2 QB rating. However, his 18:14 TD:INT ratio leaves a little to be desired.

On the Virginia Tech side, junior tailback David Wilson paced a Hokies ground attack that is 30th in the land averaging almost 189 yards per game. Wilson had the bulk of that number, rumbling for over 125 per game and finishing fifth in the country with 1,627 yards.

The Hokies have a bit of a dual threat at QB themselves, though Logan Thomas is never going to be confused for Denard Robinson. Thomas ran for over 400 yards and scored 10 TDs using his feet, while passing for nearly 2,800 yards with 19 more scores (9 INT).

With both teams possessing strong defenses and their offenses relying more on running the ball, bettors might turn to historical trends between the two teams to help make their minds up. Alas, there is no gridiron history between the two schools with this the first-ever matchup. Recent bowl records for the two teams finds Va Tech 6-6, a span that starts with losing the 2000 National Championship to Florida State at this site, while Michigan is 4-6 in its last 10 postseason trips that started with an Orange Bowl win over Alabama in 2000.

The two teams did trend strongly to the 'under' this season, combining for a 16-8 mark below the total, though that should be tempered with the Wolverines going above the number in both of their final two games.


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[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Game Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/31/11 2-*8-*0 20.00% -*3400 Detail
12/30/11 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail
12/29/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/28/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
12/27/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/26/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/24/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/21/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/20/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 23-*23-*0 50.00% -*1150


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/02/12 8-*4-*0 66.67% +*1800 Detail
Totals 8-*4-*0 66.67% +1800

[Kaptain]

love the GOY tonight SD.....also one of my stronger picks.......get er in for us

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Michigan and Virginia Tech play in Sugar Bowl

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (10-2)
vs. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (11-2)

BCS - Sugar Bowl
Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan -2.5, Total: 51

Michigan seeks its fourth straight victory when it faces a Virginia Tech team fortunate to be in a BCS bowl after its 38-10 loss in the ACC Championship Game.

The Hokies have absolutely no business being in this bowl and the Wolverines will do their best to show the world what a farce this really is. Virginia Tech’s schedule was bad enough playing in the ACC, but it didn’t even have to face Florida State or NC State, the conference’s only two bowl winners this postseason. Meanwhile, Michigan has played seven straight bowl participants, with four of those coming on the road, and managed to go 5-2, posting the five wins by an average margin of 18.2 PPG. The Hokies allowed a below-average Clemson rushing offense (was ranked 67th) to gain 217 yards on them, and have little chance at stopping Michigan’s 12th-ranked run offense (236 YPG) led by QB Denard Robinson. The pick here is MICHIGAN to win comfortably.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also favors the Wolverines:

Brady Hoke is 26-13 ATS (66.7%, +11.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Hoke 27.5, OPPONENT 27.8.

The Hokies also have a tremendous ball carrier in RB David Wilson (125 rushing YPG, 6th in FBS), who has 10 games of at least 120 yards. But he’ll be facing a tough Wolverines run-stop unit that has allowed less than 140 rushing yards in eight of the past nine games (101 YPG over span). Tech junior QB Logan Thomas has been solid this season, throwing for 2,799 yards (215 YPG), 19 TD and 9 INT. He has also rushed for 10 scores, but has gained a mere 61 rushing yards on 32 carries (1.9 YPC) in the past three games. The Wolverines defend the pass pretty well too, allowing just 189 passing YPG (17th in FBS) and 12 touchdowns in 12 games. They also have 28 sacks, but the Hokies have a strong offensive line, allowing just 15 sacks all season.

Robinson (97 rushing YPG, 16 TD) and RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (92 rushing YPG, 9 TD) have led Michigan to 738 rushing yards (246 YPG) over the past three weeks. Robinson hasn’t been great throwing the football this season (56% completions, 18 TD, 14 INT), but he is coming off two big passing games, combining to go 25-of-35 (71%) for 347 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT. He should be able to continue the surge against a Hokies defense that has allowed 200+ net passing yards in nine of their past 11 games. Virginia Tech does rank as the nation’s 15th-best team in total defense (314 YPG) though, and is eighth in points allowed at 17.2 PPG. Sophomore DL James Gayle finished third in the ACC with seven of his team’s 38 sacks this year (T-11th in nation). The Wolverines have dropped five of their past six bowl games and are trying to redeem themselves after a 52-14 drubbing at the hands of Mississippi State last year.

Another area the Hokies are hurting in, is the kicking game, as sophomore K Cody Journell was suspended after being charged with breaking and entering. Virginia Tech is also one of the worst punting teams in the nation, as its 33.6 net punting yards rank 108th among the 120 FBS schools.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Record for January:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
01/02/12 8-*4-*0 66.67% +*1800 Detail
Totals 10-*4-*0 71.43% +2800

Wednesday, January 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

West Virginia - 8:30 PM ET Clemson -3.5 500

Clemson - Over 60.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Kansas State, Arkansas In Cotton Bowl Clash

A pair of teams that exceeded expectations in 2011 will try to get 2012 off to a positive start when the Kansas State Wildcats face the Arkansas Razorbacks on Friday in the AT&T Cotton Bowl. The Wildcats and Razorbacks both went 10-2 in tough conferences yet did not get selected for a BCS bowl despite finishing in the Top 8.

Game time is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Arkansas is a 7½-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total opening at 64 and moving down to 62½. The Razorbacks closed the regular season ranked No. 7 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll while Kansas State finished at No. 20.

The Wildcats are riding a three-game winning streak into the Cotton Bowl, with all three wins decided by a touchdown or less. By the time this game is played, their only two losses will have taken place more than two months ago, as they fell to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks.

Kansas State surrendered a combined 110 points in those losses to the Cowboys and Sooners, and the total has gone ‘over’ in six of the team’s last seven games along with eight of 10. The Wildcats have covered the spread in three of their past four games and went 9-3 against the line overall.

Arkansas saw its seven-game winning streak end with a 41-17 loss at No. 1 LSU on November 25. In fact, both losses for the Razorbacks came against the top two teams in the country, who will be meeting for the BCS title on January 9. They did not cover against the Tigers or No. 2 Alabama, losing to them by 24 points each and failing to score more than 17 points against either.

In between those two losses, Arkansas went 5-2 against the spread during the winning streak and averaged nearly 40 points per game. The ‘over’ has cashed in each of the team’s last five games and went 8-2 in the past 10. However, the total has gone ‘under’ in the last eight bowl games for the Razorbacks. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 against Big 12 opponents.

Neither team has played well in bowl games recently. Kansas State has lost dropped three in a row, including a 36-34 loss to Syracuse in last year’s inaugural Pinstripe Bowl. Arkansas fell to Ohio State 31-26 in last year’s Sugar Bowl and is 3-7-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl.

It's the fifth time these two schools have hooked up on the gridiron, but first meeting since 1967. Arkansas took that contest after Kansas State won the first three matchups in 1910, 1911 and 1926.

The weather forecast for Arlington on Friday calls for a high temperature of 68 under partly cloudy skies, cooling down to 45 at night.

[StarDust Bum]

Tale of the tape: Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 63)

Offense

Kansas State’s run-heavy offense leaned heavily on quarterback Collin Klein, who ran the ball 293 times this season for 1,099 yards and 26 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert rumbled for 933 yards, helping the Wildcats rank 25th nationally averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, but the passing offense ranked 105th. Klein completed only 145 passes all season totaling 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Wildcats average 33.1 points per game.

The Razorbacks’ attack is more traditional with quarterback Tyler Wilson completing 63.1 percent of his passes for more than 3,400 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jarius Wright was his main target with 1,029 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, going for 16.3 yards per catch. Running backs Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo combined for more than 1,000 yards on the ground to keep defenses honest. Arkansas averaged 37.4 points per game, ranking 15th in the country.

Edge: Razorbacks

Defense

Arkansas’ defense didn’t live up to its preseason hype, but the Razorbacks still ranked 52nd in total defense and allowed only 22.8 points per game (25th nationally). The issue in this matchup will be Arkansas’ shoddy run defense that allowed 174.3 yards per game on the ground and 20 rushing touchdowns. The Razorbacks’ 22 sacks were three better than Kansas State managed, but the Wildcats have 18 interceptions compared to 11 for Arkansas.

Kansas State’s total defense sits 74th allowing 398.8 yards and 68th in scoring defense allowing 27.8 points per game. The Wildcats’ 105th passing defense that yields 267.2 yards per game could be in for a workout too.

Edge: Razorbacks

Special teams

Arkansas return specialist Joe Adams averages 16.9 yards per punt and has already returned three punts for touchdowns this season. Kansas State is strong defending kick returns, but is only average in punt return defense. The Wildcats rank 10th nationally in kickoff returns but the loss of freshman Tyler Lockett is huge as he has two returns for touchdowns and averages 35.2 yards per return. The kicking game is basically even with Zach Hocker hitting 16 of 19 field goals for Arkansas while Anthony Cantele is 17 of 22. Adams likely gives the Razorbacks an edge.

Edge: Razorbacks

Word on the street

"I thought the game we played here this year really helped us throughout our season. We came into halftime and we were down 18 points, but our team rallied together. Our leadership really showed up. To be able to really bring out the competitive spirit that our team showed from that point on, I think carried us throughout the season.''- Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino.

“In putting game plans together I started to find we were putting in a ton of quarterback run game. And at times I had to catch myself and say, ‘Hold on a second. John Hubert has a chance to be a 1,000-yard rusher.’ You’ve got to make sure you give him some touches, too.” – Kansas State offensive coordinator Dana Dimel told reporters about his Cotton Bowl game plan.

[StarDust Bum]

What bettors need to know: Cotton Bowl

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 63)

AT&T COTTON BOWL STORYLINES

1. Arkansas has the highest BCS ranking of any school not invited to the BCS, finishing at No. 6. Kansas State is just two spots behind but got squeezed out of the BCS party as well thanks to lower-ranked automatic qualifiers like Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.

2. The Razorbacks’ only losses came at No. 1 LSU and at No. 2 Alabama and were the only games all season in which they failed to score at least 29 points. Arkansas passes for over 300 yards per game with quarterback Tyler Wilson and is averaging 37.4 points.

3. The Wildcats rank as one of the worst passing teams in the nation, but that is due to quarterback Collin Klein leading the team in rushing as well. The junior rushed for five touchdowns in a four-overtime win over Texas A&M and totaled 38 touchdowns rushing and passing.

4. Kansas State returned to postseason play after a four-year drought and lost in the Pinstripe Bowl to Syracuse last December. The Wildcats last played in the Cotton Bowl in 2001 - beating Tennessee. Arkansas lost the 2008 Cotton Bowl to Missouri and fell in the Sugar Bowl, 31-26, to Ohio State last January.

TV: Fox.

LINE: Arkansas opened as a touchdown favorite and was bet up to -8 before drop to -7.5. The total has fallen from 64 to 62.5 points.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (10-2, 7-2 Big 12, 9-3 ATS): The Wildcats don’t mind getting into shootouts, as they average 33.1 points but give up 27.8. Klein allows Kansas State to pass or run out of most formations, adding a layer to the offense that has consistently caught defenses off guard. The Wildcats’ lone losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, two schools that rose to the top-2 in the country. Kansas State showed it could win a low-scoring game in a 17-13 triumph over Texas on Nov. 19.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 7-5 ATS): Wilson led the SEC in passing yards with 3,422, erasing any thought that the Razorbacks would suffer a drop with Ryan Mallett in the pros. Wilson’s top target is Jarius Wright, who led the SEC with 11 touchdown catches. Arkansas was hurt on the ground in its loss to LSU, allowing 286 yards rushing, and gave up a touchdown on special teams. The Razorbacks are 3-7-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Razorbacks last eight bowl games.

PREDICTION: Arkansas 44, Kansas State 35 -- Klein will run all over the place, but the Razorbacks will get quick scores through the air.

[StarDust Bum]

Cotton Bowl Preview

January 5, 2012

After taking a one-day break, the college football bowl season picks up the pace Friday with the Cotton Bowl from Arlington, Texas. This year’s matchup could have gamblers scratching their heads when you look at the two teams squaring off.

Arkansas (10-2 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) opened up as an eight-point favorite over Kansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) and the line has held steady over a month of wagers until this week. As of Thursday evening, most books pushed the number to 9 and one offshore outfit (5Dimes) had 10 on the board.

It’s hard to believe the number will close at eight, considering the betting public likes backing SEC schools, plus the Razorbacks put points up on the board as well. Quarterback Tyler Wilson led an offense that averaged 37.4 points per game, but that attack was held in check in the two losses.

To the Razorbacks’ defense, the setbacks came against Alabama (14-38) and LSU (17-41). With all due respect to Kansas State, its defense (27.8 PPG) isn’t even close to the two teams squaring off in the BCS Championship on Monday.

On a side note, Arkansas has already played at this venue (Cowboys Stadium) this season and against a Big 12 school too. The Razorbacks rallied past Texas A&M for a 42-38 victory on Oct. 1 as 2 ½-point underdogs.

While all these facts would make the amateur lean to the favorite in this spot, Arkansas doesn’t have all the makings of a lock. Outside of the neutral win against the Aggies, did you know the Razorbacks were 2-2 SU and more importantly 0-4 ATS outside of Fayetteville this season? Defensively, the team gave up an average of 33.8 PPG in their five games away from home.

Can Kansas State outscore Arkansas?

While the Razorbacks like to toss the football with Wilson, the Wildcats love to run the ball and surprisingly with their quarterback.

Signal caller Collin Klein racked up 1,099 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns, plus he threw for 1,745 yards and 12 TDs. As mentioned above, K-State won’t be facing a great defense, plus the SEC doesn’t have many great attacks outside of Arkansas, which makes their defensive numbers look even worse.

From a bettor’s perspective, the value is with the underdog.

Kansas State went 9-3 ATS this season, which includes a 7-1 mark as an underdog. Looking at their schedule, the Wildcats had two bad games. They struggled in a Week 1 win against a decent FSC school in Eastern Kentucky (10-7) and they got blasted in Norman by Oklahoma (17-58).

Most believed the ‘Cats would pack it in after the loss to the Sooners, their first of the season, but head coach Bill Snyder rallied his troops for a great effort against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys earned the 52-45 victory, but K-State easily covered as a 21-point road underdog.

Taking KSU on the generous money-line of plus-270 (Bet $100 to win $270) is risky considering you’re getting more than a touchdown with the spread, but it’s not improbable. On the road, Snyder’s squad was 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS.

A solid handicapping system for college football sort of backs Kansas State here as well. It normally applies to underdogs catching 10 or more points, which could be the case Friday, and it’s as simplistic as it gets.

Play on any underdog that owns the better rushing offense and better rushing defense

Kansas State’s offense is averaging 194 YPG on the ground, compared to 169 YPG for Arkansas. On defense, the ‘Cats are giving up 132 YPG and the Razorbacks are allowing 174 YPG.

How do you beat a great offense? Keep them off the field, right?

From a total perspective, both Arkansas and K-State have seen the ‘over’ go 8-3 this season. Most shops have the total hovering between 63 and 64 points.

The Big 12 has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in bowl games so far, while the SEC has produced a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in this year’s postseason.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. ET, with FOX providing national coverage.

Kansas State Bowl History (Last 5 Bowls)

Dec. 30, 2010 Pinstripe Bowl - Syracuse 36, Kansas State 34
Dec. 28, 2006 Texas Bowl - Rutgers 37, Kansas State 10
Jan. 2, 2004 Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State 35, Kansas State 28
Dec. 27, 2002 Holiday Bowl - Kansas State 34, Arizona State 27
Dec. 29, 2001 Insight.com Bowl - Syracuse 26, Kansas State 3

Betting Notes: Head coach Bill Snyder returned to Manhattan last season after being the coach from 1989 to 2005. He owns an all-time bowl record of 6-6.

Arkansas Bowl History (Last 5 Bowls)

Jan. 4, 2011 Sugar Bowl - Ohio State 31, Arkansas 26
Jan. 2, 2010 Liberty Bowl - Arkansas 20, East Carolina 17, OT
Jan. 1, 2008 Capital One Bowl - Missouri 38, Arkansas 7
Jan. 1, 2007 Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 17, Arkansas 14
Dec. 31, 2003 Independence Bowl - Arkansas 27, Missouri 14

Betting Notes: Bobby Petrino has gone 3-3 in bowl games, which included a 1-1 record at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls.

Cotton Bowl History (2007-2011)

Jan. 7, 2011 - LSU 41, Texas A&M 24
Jan. 2, 2010 - Mississippi 21, Oklahoma State 7
Jan. 2, 2009 - Mississippi 47, Texas Tech 34
Jan. 1, 2008 - Missouri 38, Arkansas 7
Jan. 1, 2007 - Auburn 17, Nebraska 14

Betting Notes: The SEC has won four of the last five Cotton Bowls. Four of the last five have been decided by double digits. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last five Cotton Bowls.

[StarDust Bum]

Parlay cards hurting books

January 5, 2012

While the 2011-12college football bowl season has been a success for most Las Vegas sports books thus far with favorites going 16-13 against the spread, not one book is counting on that cash being banked just yet due to all the parlay card liability from those games. For the last four weeks, sports books have been setting up new weekly parlay cards with all the games listed, closing out with the LSU-Alabama matchup set for Monday Jan. 9.

During one of those weeks, the week where everyone bet on the Patriots against Tim Tebow and the Broncos, the books got tortured on parlay cards with frequent 8, 9 and 10-team payouts. Many of the cards from that week and the others are still alive and waiting to cash with both sides, LSU and Alabama, each showing a major loss when finally posted.

One sports book director who didn’t want his property or name being mentioned said Week 15 from pro football has been tied to several bowl games each week and continues pay out 10-teamers on a regular basis. At this particular property, twenty 10-team parlays have been hit over the last three weeks paying out at $32,500 each. There are several more tied into the Cotton Bowl and BCS Championship game.

“These aren’t the sharp players we see betting limits on individual games, but they are sharp in the sense that they never lay a bad number on the card and always have a one or two point edge and when you’re talking about a ties win card, it comes out to being a two or three point edge,” the sports book director said.

If a 10-team ties-win parlay card with set odds pays out 650-to-1, the mathematical value doesn’t seem to be there. But once you have several teams with a large variation from what the current spread is, the value is far greater for the player and beats the true odds price which is why many books are rethinking their pay charts for next season.

“I think a few groups have figured out the math and value of each half-point in regards to the set lines on the parlay card which is why we see more and more bettors coming in with stacks of cards each week,” said the anonymous director. “We’re in a constant battle with these guys all season trying to limit their plays, but it’s hard to control the flow from new and different faces at multiple properties.”

The battle goes like this:

The sports books set the parlay card lines on Wednesday. The printer has them ready Thursday morning and then they’re open for the public that afternoon. There’s already one day of line movement lost. By the time Friday and Saturday come around, there are several games that have moved from what the Wednesday number was that is standing still on the card.

It’s usually Friday or Saturday when these groups set their 16 to 20 games to be played round-robin style on cards throughout the city. Knowing that every sports book is policing the stacks of cards, they attempt to bring in small stacks of 10 cards to different windows and different books and then use the same process with a new face.

Through 14 weeks of the season, the books won the weekly battles. But all it took was one solid week for these groups to win the war, and they‘re still winning because Week 15 of the NFL is still paying dividends thanks to the bowls.

You may ask, “If the books have such a tough time with the cards, then why do they offer them?”

The reason is simply because of how much revenue they generate. Parlay cards are 7 to 10% of a sports books overall win on the year with just four months of action during football season. The cards are easy for most of the novice bettors to fill out. They can take them home, fill them out at their own leisure, and then return to the book before game day and be done.

It’s unfortunate that some books may have to resort to dropping odds on their cards, which 99.99% of the public plays without any scheme of deception, in order to deter these groups from having a mathematical edge in relation to stale numbers, line moves and payout of odds.

Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro said that his books have been a small winner through the bowl season, but it could have been better had it not been for the parlay cards.

“We’ve struggled with the cards, but we were fortunate Clemson lost on Wednesday night which eliminated a lot of the risk,’ said Vaccaro. “Our best scenario right now is for LSU to win as we still have some risk tied to Alabama from the last few weeks of action.”

Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert has the most liability on LSU, but not just because of the parlay cards.

“We’ve held strong with Alabama at -1 ½ throughout despite some pretty large wagers on LSU,” said Colbert. “We’ve had great action throughout the bowl season with good, not great, but good steady win.”

Colbert noted that despite the large risk on LSU that he was in no hurry to move the number.

“We like needing Alabama going into the game.”

As for not having much parlay risk like some of the other books, Colbert says he plays it more cautious than others might.

“I don’t really see what the other books do, but I know most don’t leave games off like we do,” said Colbert. “There’s no reason to put every game on the card when you have to make numbers on a Wednesday, especially when you know several of the games are going to run, leaving the players with a huge mathematical edge.”

“There are usually 8 to 12 games a week that run past the number posted on Wednesday, so if I can limit my exposure to maybe 5 or 6 games that are off, I think it makes us less attractive to those players out there that we’re trying to be cautious against.”

Colbert may be on to something there where he doesn’t have to limit the odds, but limit the games. There is no rule that says every game has to be on the parlay cards, yet most books have held steady to it unless there is a major question mark on a star player for that week.

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Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

With the NFL playoffs about to begin and the BCS National Championship around the corner, Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman takes a look ahead to all the football action at the DonBest.com studios.

Half of the Super Bowl champions in the last six years have come from the Wild Card slot; can it happen again this year?

Kicking off the weekend this Saturday will be the Houston Texans hosting the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium. Two rookie quarterbacks will face each other in this matchup although they got there on entirely different paths.

Andy Dalton has started since Week 1 while T.J. Yates was forced into action after the Texans’ top-two QBs went down with injury. Yates’ squad is favored by a field goal at home and the total is 38½ at Caesars on the Don Best odds screen.

NBC will air a rematch of one of their night games when the Lions head into the Superdome to take on the Saints. New Orleans is currently a 10½-point favorite over Detroit but the big story in this game is the total. Oddsmakers have set the number just under 60 at 59½ for an actual professional playoff football game.

Fuhrman summed up the Lions well saying, “If the Lions can avoid the costly mistakes, they can be competitive. I’m just not sure they can do that.” Detroit was behind only Oakland in penalty yardage this season.

A very interesting NFC pairing will kick things off Sunday when the Atlanta Falcons roll into MetLife Stadium to battle the New York Giants. This game is almost dead set on the key number with the G-Men laying three at home with a total of 47½.

Finishing off the first round in the NFL postseason will be Tim Tebow’s first playoff game. The Pittsburgh Steelers will go on the road despite being 12-4 because the Denver Broncos won the porous AFC West at 8-8. Pittsburgh is banged up but since Tebow has looked atrocious in the last few weeks, the Steelers are -8½ next to a very low total of 34.

Only a few bowls remain on the college football slate and the AT&T Cotton Bowl will happen this Friday. The Arkansas Razorbacks have seen a line movement in their favor from -7½ to -9 over the Kansas State Wildcats for the upcoming matchup at Cowboys Stadium. The total is 63.

SMU will take on Pittsburgh in Saturday’s BBVA Compass Bowl and the Mustangs are now +3½ with the total set at 47. The Panthers opened -5½ but bettors may be thinking Pitt is a little deflated after being notified via text message that head coach Todd Graham would be leaving them.

Capping off the whole week of football will be the BCS Championship game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers. The point spread of ‘Bama being favored by one pretty much sums up how close these teams are. It should be noted, however, that LSU did open at -1½.

In their first meeting this season they scored a grand total of 15 points combined in a contest that even went into overtime. If you expect the total to be set at 15½, you may want to study more people like Fuhrman and everything you can find at DonBest.com as the real total is 40.

[StarDust Bum]

Arkansas and KSU meet in Friday's Cotton Bowl

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (10-2)
vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (10-2)

Cotton Bowl
Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arkansas -8.5, Total: 63.5

Although it’s not a BCS game, the Cotton Bowl features two of the nation’s top-8 teams when Kansas State meets Arkansas on Friday night at Cowboys Stadium.

Both of these 10-win teams are legitimate as KSU’s two losses came to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, while Arkansas was only beaten by LSU and Alabama, the top two teams in the nation. Both of these offenses are extremely efficient, they just get the job done in different ways. The Razorbacks are 13th in passing offense as QB Tyler Wilson averages 285 pass YPG with 22 TD and 6 INT. The Wildcats use the legs of QB Collin Klein, who has 1,099 rushing yards and an insane 26 TD runs. With these teams evenly matched, this game expects to be a lot closer than the point spread would indicate. KSU has thrived in the underdog role this season, going 7-1 ATS and winning six of those games straight up. The Hogs have a little more offensive firepower and will likely win a tight game, but the pick against the spread here is KANSAS STATE.

The FoxSheets provide another trend siding with the Wildcats:

KANSAS STATE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS STATE 38.8, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Arkansas has played five straight games Over the Total and six of KSU’s past seven contests have also been played Over the Total. This three-star FoxSheets trend points to the OVER coming through again:

KANSAS STATE is 15-3 OVER (83.3%, +11.7 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS STATE 35.3, OPPONENT 33.4 - (Rating = 3*).

KSU has dropped three straight bowl games, with its last victory coming in the 2002 Holiday Bowl. The Wildcats lost last year’s Pinstripe Bowl 36-34 to Syracuse as they failed on a two-point conversion with 1:13 left in the game. But Klein, who had just one carry in that game, is now the focal point of the offense. In addition to his gaudy rushing totals, he is also a capable passer, throwing for 1,745 yards (7.0 YPA), 12 TD and 5 INT. Sophomore RB John Hubert is coming off a huge performance against Iowa State, rushing for 120 yards on just 15 carries with a touchdown. Arkansas ranks 80th in the country in run defense (174 YPG), giving the Wildcats more reason to use a heavy dose of Klein and Hubert.

If they trail big and are forced to throw the football, it will likely be headed towards junior WR Chris Harper. He is the only KSU player with more than 300 receiving yards (39 rec, 536 yds, 5 TD), but he was held without a catch last game against ISU. The Razorbacks defend the pass pretty well (197 YPG, 26th in FBS), and senior safety Tramain Thomas is an excellent ball hawk with five picks this year and 12 career interceptions. The Hogs also have one of the better pass rushers in the land in DE Jake Bequette. His 0.9 sacks per game (eight sacks in nine games) rank sixth in the nation, and he also has four forced fumbles on the year.

Arkansas is a frequent visitor to the Cotton Bowl, but is just 3-7-1 all-time in this postseason classic. The Hogs are also 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) in their past four bowl games, including a 31-26 loss to Ohio State in last year’s Sugar Bowl. WR Joe Adams starred in that game with nine catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. Adams is second on the team with 49 catches and 630 receiving yards, as Jarius Wright has emerged as a star with an SEC-leading 1,029 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He also scored in that OSU defeat, catching four passes for 70 yards. This year, Wright has tallied six 90-yard efforts, including a ridiculous 281 against Texas A&M in October.

With KSU ranking 105th in the nation in passing defense (267 YPG), the Hogs will look to air out the football. Wilson has thrown for 200+ yards in every game except one (at Alabama) and has eight games with 2+ TD passes. Arkansas has a couple of solid backs in Dennis Johnson (637 yds, 3 TD) and Ronnie Wingo Jr. (440 yds, 3 TD). The Wildcats are better statistically at stopping the run (131 YPG, 39th in FBS), but the Big 12 features mostly pass-heavy offenses. K-State’s defensive line does not usually push into opponents backfields though, with just 1.5 sacks per game (89th in nation) and 4.4 Tackles For Loss (105th in FBS).

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Bowl Record in January:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/04/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
01/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
01/02/12 8-*4-*0 66.67% +*1800 Detail
Totals 11-*5-*0 68.75% +2750

Bowl Record in December:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/31/11 2-*8-*0 20.00% -*3400 Detail
12/30/11 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail
12/29/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/28/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
12/27/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/26/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/24/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/21/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/20/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 23-*23-*0 50.00% -*1150

BOWL GAME # 1 MICHIGAN WAS EITHER A PUSH OR WIN DEPENING ON YOUR LINE YOU HAD

BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR # 2

Friday, January 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas State - 8:00 PM ET Kansas State +7.5 500 BGOY2
Arkansas - Over 62.5 500

[LeRoy]

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