2011-2012 BOWL Game Best Bets + BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR !

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Clemson, West Virginia In High-Octane Orange Bowl

The Orange Bowl matchup between the Clemson Tigers and West Virginia Mountaineers is being criticized in some circles, but these are two entertaining teams who can light up the scoreboard.

ESPN will have the Wednesday, January 4 broadcast at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Sun Life Stadium in Miami. This is the final BCS bowl before the national title game pitting LSU and Alabama the following Monday.

Don Best has Clemson as 3-point favorites. The total is between 60½-61 points and features the nation’s 19th-ranked scoring offense in West Virginia (34.9 PPG) against 25th-ranked Clemson (33.6 PPG).

The BCS No. 15 Tigers (10-3 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) have been one of the best stories in college football, Ranked sixth (12/1) in odds-to-win the ACC before the season, they won their first eight games (7-1 ATS) and skyrocketed to No. 5 in the BCS.

Coach Dabo Swinney is as energetic as they come, but his Tigers couldn’t keep up the momentum, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS the next four games. Things looked bleak heading into the ACC title tilt against Virginia Tech as 7-point ‘dogs, but they shocked everyone with a 38-10 victory.

Sophomore quarterback Tajh Boyd threw for 240 yards in that game, but more importantly three TDs and no interceptions. Boyd had hit a lull with the rest of the team the prior four games with four TDs and seven interceptions.

The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Clemson’s last five games after the ‘over’ started 6-2.

Boyd has passed for 3,578 yards on the season (11th nationally). He loves throwing to his two AP All-Americans in receiver Sammy Watkins (1,153 yards) and tight end Dwayne Allen (577 yards). The freshman Watkins was chosen as an all-purpose player being a great kick returner as well.

There is some bad news with receiver DeAndre Hopkins (871 yards) having a concussion and doubtful for this game. That’s a decent size blow for Boyd and the Tigers offense.

Clemson does have a 1,000-yard rusher in junior Andre Ellington, but this should be mostly an aerial attack against the Mountaineers even though they ranked 30th nationally in pass defense (199.6 YPG). West Virginia will be without starting strong safety Terence Garvin (knee), who started every game and is third on the team in tackles.

The BCS No. 23 Mountaineers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) won their last three games over Cincinnati (24-21), Pittsburgh (21-20) and South Florida (30-27), each requiring a fourth quarter comeback.

They finished in a three-way conference tie, but got the Big East automatic bid. They’re trying to leave for the Big 12 after this season, but it could be held up in litigation.

Junior quarterback Geno Smith is West Virginia’s answer to Boyd. He has 3,978 passing yards (eighth nationally) on 65 percent completions and has thrown 25 TDs versus just seven picks. Smith did throw two interceptions last game against South Florida and the team has averaged only 18 offensive points the last three games, boosted by special teams and defensive TDs.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 in West Virginia’s last three games after the ‘over’ was 8-0 in the previous eight.

West Virginia relies on the run even less than Clemson at 117.8 YPG (ranked 100th). Dustin Garrison has 742 yards rushing, but 291 came in one game against Bowling Green. Shawne Alston has 339 yards and 10 TDs. Clemson has been run against this year at 176.5 YPG (ranked 81st), so WVU needs to be patient and stay balanced.

This is the first year as head coach for the Mountaineers’ Dana Holgorsen. They’ve lost their last two bowl games to North Carolina State (23-7) and Florida State (33-21) under former coach Bill Stewart, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls overall.

Swinney is 1-2 SU and ATS in bowl games, losing last year to South Florida (31-26) in the Meineke Car Care. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowls overall. They last played in the Orange Bowl in 1981, the year they won their only national title.

These teams have only met once previously despite their relative close proximity. It came in the 1989 Gator Bowl with Clemson getting a 27-7 win as 7-point favorites.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has both teams ranked slightly lower than the BCS. Clemson is 16th (111.4), while West Virginia is 25th (109). Those numbers suggest the 3-point spread is right on.

Early weather forecasts in Miami call for clear skies and temperature in the 60s.


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[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Bowl Notebook

December 29, 2011

Armed Forces Bowl at Gerald Ford Stadium from Dallas, New York
Tulsa (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. BYU (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Tulsa closed the year on a 7-1 run (5-2 ATS), but it hasn't played since Nov. 25 when it was blasted at home to Houston (16-48)
The Golden Hurricane went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road, with losses coming against Oklahoma (14-47) and Boise State (21-41)
Despite averaging 34.1 points per game, Tulsa saw the 'under' go 8-4 this season
Tulsa has won its last three bowl games by scores of 63-7, 45-13 and 62-35
After starting the season 1-2, BYU finished with an 8-1 record
The Cougars went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS outside of Provo
BYU posted 41 points in its final three games, which helped the 'over' go 3-0
The Cougars own an all-time record of 11-17-1 in bowl games
However, coach Bronco Mendenhall is 4-2 in bowls at BYU, which includes back-to-back victories the last two years by 24 and 28 points
BYU opened as a three-point favorite, but the money has shifted Tulsa to a one-point 'chalk'

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Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium from Bronx, New York

Rutgers (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Iowa State (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) -

Rutgers started the season on a roll (5-1) and ended just as strong (3-1)
The Scarlet Knights went 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in non-conference play, the loss coming on the road to North Carolina (22-24)
Rutgers was 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS outside of New Jersey this season
The Knights were a clear-cut 'under' team (8-3), especially on the road (4-1)
Rutgers is 4-2 all-time in bowls, and all of the victories have come under head coach Greg Schiano (4-1).
The Knights have won four straight postseason affairs (3-1 ATS), putting up 37, 52, 29 and 45 points during this span
Iowa State's season can be summed up in a pair of three-game winning streaks
The Cyclones began 3-0 before dropping four straight. Then the team won three in a row, including the big upset against Oklahoma State (37-31). Sure enough, they closed the year with back-to-back losses.
On the road, Iowa State was 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS
Against non-conference foes, ISU was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS
The Cyclones watched five of their final six games go 'under' the number
Iowa State stopped Minnesota 14-13 in last year's Insight Bowl, which improved their all-time bowl record to 3-7
The line has held steady in this matchup, with Rutgers listed as a short favorite (-1) and the total hovering between 44 and 45

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Music City Bowl at LP Field from Nashville, Tennessee

Wake Forest (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Mississippi State (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) -

Wake Forest started the season 4-1 but ended with a 2-5 record
The Demon Deacons were 1-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in non-conference games
On the road, WF went 2-3 both SU and ATS. Two of the setbacks were tight, with one loss to Syracuse (29-36) in overtime and the other against ACC Champions, Clemson (28-31)
The Deacons closed the season with four straight 'under' tickets
Jim Grobe has been a solid bet in bowl games, going 3-1 in his career, 2-1 at Wake Forest
Mississippi State went 1-2 in its final three games, with double digit losses to Alabama (7-24) and Arkansas (17-44)
The Bulldogs had identical 3-3 records on the road and at home. However, they were 4-2 ATS outside of Starkville
Mississippi State owns an 8-6 all-time bowl record, which includes last year's 52-14 blowout win against Michigan in the Gator Bowl.
The last seven Music City bowls have been decided by single digits. The ACC has taken the last two from the SEC
Not much line movement on the side, but the total dropped from 48 ½ to 47 ½ points

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Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium from Tempe, Arizona
Iowa (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Oklahoma (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) -

Iowa was 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season
The Hawkeyes were 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in non-conference affairs
Iowa closed the season with a 1-2 mark, losing both games by double digits
Kirk Ferentz has gone 6-3 in bowls at Iowa, which includes three straight wins and covers
Oklahoma went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS outside of Norman
The Sooners finished the season with losses in two of their last three, giving up 45 and 44 in the setbacks
Oklahoma was a double-digit favorite in 11 of its 12 games, which produced a 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS mark
Bob Stoops owns a 6-6 record in bowl games at Oklahoma. The Sooners are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five postseason games
The Big 12 has won four of the last five Insight Bowls, but Iowa captured the hardware last year when it beat Missouri 27-24
Oklahoma opened as high as a 16-point favorite but the number has dropped to 13 ½ at most shops. Surprisingly, the suspension of Iowa running back Marcus Coker was announced last week yet the line still shifted toward the 'dog

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, Dec. 30


(Armed Forces Bowl from Dallas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TULSA vs. BYU...BYU on another late-season uptick like 2010, won last five and covered last six in 2011. Last year the Cougs covered their last five including bowl romp past UTEP. Bronco Mendenhall has won and covered his last two bowls, now 4-2 vs. spread in postseason. Tulsa did cover last five away from home TY and has covered 10 of last 11 away from Chapman Field/Skelly Stadium. Golden Hurricane has also won and covered last three bowls. BYU, based on late-season uptick.




Yankee Pinstripe Bowl from Bronx, New York)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

RUTGERS vs. IOWA STATE...Greg Schiano has won his last four bowls games SU and is 4-1 vs. spread in five bowls since 2005 campaign. Rutgers also 4-1 vs. line outside of Big East TY. ISU closed with a rush by covering five of its last six TY, including last five as dog. Slight to Rutgers, based on Schiano bowl marks.




Music City Bowl from Nashville
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WAKE FOREST vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE...Grobe has won and covered three of four bowls at Wake. Grobe 23-15 as dog since 2005 if you exclude injury-wrecked 2010. MSU covered five of last six TY, and Bulldogs have won and covered last three well-spaced bowls since 2000 (1-0 for Dan Mullen). Wake, based on Grobe's extended dog marks.




Insight Bowl from Tempe
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

IOWA vs. OKLAHOMA...OU cooled off down the stretch, failing to cover last three and five of last six TY. Bob Stoops just 1-4 vs. number last five, and 2-6 vs. points last eight bowl games. Krik Fernetz has covered last four bowls and five of last six as bowl underdog. Ferentz 6-1 vs. spread last seven bowls. Ferentz only 1-3 as dog TY but 13-7 as "short" since 2007. Iowa, based on bowl trends.




Saturday, Dec. 31


Meineke Car Care Texas Bowl from Houston
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEXAS A&M vs. NORTHWESTERN...Ags only 2-9 vs. line last 11 TY and have lost and failed to cover last five bowls. Pat Fitzgerald only 4-8 as dog since 2010 but NU 14-7 last 21 as dog away and 3-0 vs. line in bowls for Fitzgerald. Northwestern, based on team and bowl trends.




Sun Bowl from El Paso
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UTAH vs. GEORGIA TECH...Kyle Whittingham was 5-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (including a win over a Chan Gailey GT team in 2005 Emerald Bowl) prior to LY vs. Boise in Las Vegas Bowl. Whittingham Ute teams 15-10 as dog since he took over in 2005. Utes overall 8-2 SU in bowls since 1999. Paul Johnson 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowls at GT, and Jackets no wins or covers their last six bowls. Tech only 1-6 vs. line last seven in 2011. Utah, based on team and bowl trends.




Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl from San Francisco)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UCLA vs. ILLINOIS...Rematch of some memorable past bowls, including Illinois 45-14 win in 1947 Rose Bowl, UCLA 45-9 in 1984 Rose Bowl, and UCLA 6-3 in 1991 Sun Bowl. Bruins also won another 6-3 yawner vs. Illinois in 2003, Karl Dorrell's first win as Bruins coach. Illini lost last six SU in 2011 although they are 7-4 vs. spread last eleven away from Champaign-Urbana since LY. Bruins have covered 5 of last 8 bowls and covered four of last six overall in 2011. UCLA, based on recent Illinois fade.




Liberty Bowl from Memphis
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CINCINNATI vs. VANDERBILT...Vandy making only second bowl appearance since 1982 (2008 was the other) and Dores were 9-3 vs. line for James Franklin TY, including 4-1 as chalk. Cincy no covers last four bowls and Bearcats just 1-4 against spread last five in 2011. Cincy 4-9 vs. number last 13 away from home as well (4-7 for Butch Jones). Vandy, based on team and bowl trends.




Chick Fil-A Bowl from Atlanta)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VIRGINIA vs. AUBURN...Auburn very so-so 4-8 vs. line TY, and Tigers 6-14 vs. spread for Chizik in their last 20 games non-Cam Newton. Note Virginia "under" 8-2-1 in 2011. Cavs covered 4 of 5 bowls for Al Groh but haven't been to postseason since 2007. Slight to Virginia and "under," based on Auburn non-Cam marks and "totals" trends.




Monday, Jan. 2


Ticket City Bowl from Dallas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PENN STATE vs. HOUSTON...Nittany Lions just 3-10-1 their last 14 on board and 1-5-1 last seven as dog. Penn State 29-1 last 12 as dog. UH 1-4 vs. line last five bowls but was 10-3 vs. spread in 2011. Houston, based on Penn State negatives.




Outback Bowl from Tampa Bay
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA...Mark Richt is 4-1 SU and vs. line in last five bowls, with the loss a year ago vs. UCF at Liberty. Dawgs covered 8 of last 11 TY and were 5-0 vs. points their last five with spreads of 10 or fewer. Rematch of 2009 Cap One Bowl (after 2008 season) in which Georgia won and covered, 24-12. Spartans 8-2 vs. line last 10 TY, although Dantonio no wins or covers in last three bowls. Georgia, based on bowl trends.




Capital One Bowl from Orlando)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEBRASKA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA...Bo Pelini 3-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with Huskers, including 2003 Alamo Bowl as interim HC vs. Mich. State after Solich ouster. Spurrier no wins or covers last three years in bowls and just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Slight to Nebraska, based on bowl trends.




Gator Bowl from Jacksonville)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

FLORIDA vs. OHIO STATE...Gators enter "Gator" on 8-game spread losing streak. Although Florida did win and cover 5 of 6 bowls for Urban Meyer (lone loss after 2007 to Michigan in Lloyd Carr's last game as coach). Buckeyes won and covered last three bowls for Tressel and are 7-2 vs. number last nine bowls since 2002. Slight to OSU, based on recent Florida negatives.




Rose Bowl from Pasadena)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WISCONSIN vs. OREGON...Ducks no wins or covers in two bowl games for Chip Kelly. Bielema 3-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. Bielema has covered last four as dog. Bielema 14-5-1 last 20 on board since mid 2010. Ducks surprisingly better on road vs. points (4-1) than at home(2-5-1) this season. Both "over" 9-4 this season, though Wiscy "under" 5-1 last 6 bowls and Ducks "under" last two bowls for Kelly. Wisconsin, based on team trends.




Fiesta Bowl from Glendale)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

STANFORD vs. OKLAHOMA STATE...Pointspread showdown, Tree 10-2 vs. line TY and 13-2 last 15 on board, OSU 19-6 against points since LY. Cowboys also 11-1 against spread away from Stillwater since LY. Gundy only 1-2 in last three bowls but did rout Arizona LY at Alamo. Tree has covered last seven vs. non-conference opposition. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.




Tuesday, Jan. 3


Sugar Bowl from New Orleans)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MICHIGAN vs. VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer only 4-6 vs. spread last ten bowls and has struggled vs. ranked teams. Beamer is 8-5 as a dog since 2005, but was only 4-9 against number this season. Michigan 5-14 vs. line away from Ann Arbor since 2008 but most of that was Rodriguez' doing, 2-2 in role for Hoke TY. Wolverines 1-3 vs. line last four bowls and 2-6 SU last eight bowls dating to the Lloyd Carr years. Michigan 7-4 vs. spread TY for Hoke, who is 16-8 vs. line last two years at SDSU & Michigan. Slight to Michigan, based on Brady Hoke marks.




Wednesday, Jan. 4


Orange Bowl from Orlando)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WEST VIRGINIA vs. CLEMSON...West Virginia no covers last three years in bowls for Stewart. Holgorsen spread marks this year were very middling. But he was 2-1 as dog, and Mountaineers 11-3 getting points since 2005. Dabo had dropped four straight vs. line late in season until ACC title win vs. Beamer, but he's only 4-7 last 11 laying points away from Death Valley. Dabo also just 1-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. WVU, based on team trends.




Friday, Jan. 6


Cotton Bowl from Arlington, Texas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

KANSAS STATE vs. ARKANSAS...Bill Snyder was 9-2 vs. line in 2011 including 7-1 as dog! Snyder 15-6 as dog since returning to Wildcats in 2009. K-State, however, has failed to cover its last five bowls dating back to the last win at the Jan. 1, 2001 Cotton Bowl vs. Tennessee. Petrino 28-15 last 43 spread decisions at Arkansas but only covered 1 of 5 away from home this season. Arkansas no covers in its last four bowls, either. Kansas State, based on Bill Snyder dog trends.




Saturday, Jan. 7


BBVA Compass Bowl from Birmingham
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SMU vs. PITTSBURGH...These two once met in a memorable Jan. 1, 1983 Cotton Bowl won by SMU 7-3, Eric Dickerson over Dan Marino in their last college games. Pitt returns to this bowl for a second straight year again with an interim coach. June Jones, however, no covers last six TY for SMU and just 7-15 vs. spread last 22 since mid 2010. June Jones also 1-6 last 7 as dog. Pitt covered its last five this season prior to Todd Graham's departure. Pitt, based on SMU negatives.




Sunday, Jan. 8


GoDaddy.com Bowl from Mobile
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ARKANSAS STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Ark State 10-2 vs. line TY and 17-7 last two years vs. number. First Red Wolves bowl since losing 2005 New Orleans Bowl (at Lafayette) vs. Southern Miss. NIU had lost and failed to cover in four straight bowls prior to LY's 40-17 romp past Fresno in Boise. Huskies only 5-8 vs. line in 2011. Ark State, based on team trends.




Monday, Jan. 9


BCS Championship from New Orleans
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ALABAMA vs. LSU...LSU has won and covered close 3-point decisions the last two meetings including 9-6 OT win Nov. 5 at Tuscaloosa. Les Miles 10-3 vs. line but covered all seven away from Baton Rouge, and has covered last eight away from Tiger Stadium. This series had gone "over" five straight prior to earlier 9-6 scoreline in November. Tigers "over" 12-5-1 last 18 since mid 2010. Saban dropped three of last four vs. line in 2011 and is 4-3 as dog with Bama (hasn't been a dog since 2009 SEC title game vs. Florida). Saban 4-3 vs. line last seven bowls at LSU & Bama. Les Miles 5-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with LSU. LSU, based on team trends

[StarDust Bum]

Chick-fil-A Bowl preview

December 29, 2011

Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Georgia Dome (Atlanta, Ga.)
Saturday, Dec. 31
7:30 pm ET - ESPN
Auburn -3, o/u 48.5

Call me a traditionalist, but I will always think of this game as the “Peach Bowl.” That said, as far as bowl sponsors go, Chick-fil-A is a whole lot better sounding – and tasting – than Beef 'O' Brady's or some of the other sponsors out there. I have also always had a soft spot in my heart for this game because of its timing. At 7:30 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, the Peach Bowl has been a pre-party staple as sports fans geared up for the festivities at midnight. Hopefully the 2011 version will once again set the tone for a memorable New Year’s.

One thing is sure; the 2010-11 season was memorable for Auburn. The Tigers – or War Eagle, whichever you prefer – capped off a perfect 14-0 season by beating Oregon in the BCS title game for its second national championship. That win was Auburn’s fourth consecutive bowl victory, a streak many thought would come to an end this season. That’s because the Tigers lost a boat load of talent from their dominant squad last year, including Heisman Trophy winning junior quarterback Cam Newton. A 7-5 record seems like a pretty steep drop from 14-0, but a winning season and Peach Bowl invite is probably the most Auburn faithful could have hoped for.

Similarly, but from a completely different perspective, a Peach Bowl invite is also the most Virginia fans could have hoped for in 2011. The Cavaliers finished 2010 at 4-8, their third straight year without a bowl invite, and while progress was expected in coach Mike London’s 2nd season, 8-4 and a trip to Atlanta on New Year’s Eve is considered a best case ending no matter how this game plays out.

Both of these teams have had their fair share of highs and lows during the 2011 campaign. Auburn had quality wins against South Carolina and Florida but needed a major rally to pull out a victory against Utah State. Virginia turned heads with wins at Miami and Florida State but only after needing overtime to beat Idaho.

Since the regular season ended, there have been a number of changes at Auburn. Both coordinators have moved on as defensive coordinator Ted Roof has taken the same position at Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has taken the head coaching job at Arkansas State. Roof won’t coach in this game – head coach Gene Chizik will call the defensive formations – but Malzahn will be on the sidelines to direct the Auburn attack one last time. How Malzahn’s attack will look should be interesting.

This much we know: Running back Michael Dyer will miss this game for violating team rules. Dyer burst on the scene as a true freshman last year, topping the 1,000 yard mark. The sophomore backed it up this year with 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns, becoming the first Auburn player to eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark in both of his first two seasons. Without Dyer, Auburn will turn to Onterio McCalebb who has been productive in a reserve role this season.

The quarterback position could also look a little different as reports out of the Auburn camp have freshman Kiehl Frazier taking a number of snaps with the first team offense. Auburn started the season with Barrett Trotter under center but then turned to Clint Moseley in the 2nd half of the schedule - with mixed results. The thinking goes that Chizik may want to get an early look at Frazier in preparation for the 2012 season and considering Auburn enters this game with the 100th ranked offense in the nation, what does the coach have to lose?

Whichever quarterback goes will face a Virginia defense ranked 29th in the nation and one which has kept the Cavaliers alive in many games this year. That unit has a distinct advantage over Auburn’s defense, ranked 77th in the nation, giving up 29 points and 405 yards of offense per game. The Virginia offense, ranked 46th in the nation won’t overwhelm anyone but if quarterback Michael Rocco can play mistake free football and distribute the ball to a number of options – including RB Perry Jones – the Cavaliers can mount an efficient attack.

While the offensive and defensive stats seem to point to the Cavaliers, we know the SEC is top to bottom a much stronger football conference than the ACC. As much talent as they lost from last year, this is still an Auburn team with fresh memories of a 14-0 National Championship season while Virginia is looking for its first bowl win in six years.

Betting Notes:


Virginia was 6-6 ATS this season
The Cavaliers went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season. The lone loss came on Sept. 17 to North Carolina, 17-28
UVA was 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in non-conference action
The ‘under’ went 10-2 for Virginia this season
Auburn was 4-8 (33%) versus the number
Auburn won six of its seven games at home this season
The Tigers went 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road, the lone win coming at South Carolina (16-13).
The four losses were by double digits and against some quality opponents (Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia) too
Including last year’s win in the BCS Championship, Auburn is 4-0 in its last four bowls and the outcome was decided by three points each time.
Ironically, Virginia’s last three bowl games were decided by exactly three points as well. The Cavs are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS with the last postseason battle in 2007.
The ACC has won the last two Chick-fil-A Bowls, but the SEC was on a 4-0 run prior to that.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Game Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/29/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/28/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
12/27/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/26/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/24/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/21/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/20/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 17-*9-*0 65.38% +3550


Friday, December 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tulsa - 12:00 PM ET Brigham Young -2.5 500
Brigham Young - Over 55.5 500

Rutgers - 3:20 PM ET Iowa State +1.5 500
Iowa State - Under 44.5 500

Wake Forest - 6:40 PM ET Mississippi State -6.5 500
Mississippi State - Over 48 500

Iowa - 10:00 PM ET Iowa +14 500
Oklahoma - Under 58 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/30/11 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail
12/29/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/28/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
12/27/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
12/26/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/24/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
12/21/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/20/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 21-*15-*0 58.33% +2250

Saturday, December 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas A&M - 12:00 PM ET Texas A&M -10 500
Northwestern - Over 66 500

Utah - 2:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -3.5 500
Georgia Tech - Under 50.5 500

UCLA - 3:30 PM ET UCLA +2.5 500
Illinois - Over 47 500

Cincinnati - 3:30 PM ET Vanderbilt -2.5 500
Vanderbilt - Under 48.5 500

Virginia - 7:30 PM ET Auburn -2.5 500
Auburn - Under 49 500

[Kaptain]

thanks a lots SD Bum......I appreciate your input, and many others also do.....

Have a good and safe weekend my man

[StarDust Bum]

Happy New Year Kapt........yesterday suck donkey balls.......Lets hope the New Year Brings in better success.....

[StarDust Bum]

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

KANST
ARK Under is 8-0 in ARK last 8 Bowl games.

KANST
ARK Under is 8-0 in ARK last 8 bowl games.

FLA
OHIST OHIST are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

FLA
OHIST Over is 7-0 in FLA last 7 vs. Big Ten.

NEB
SOCAR Under is 7-0 in NEB last 7 neutral site games.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 247-248: Penn State vs. Houston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 91.199; Houston 99.323
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Under

Game 249-250: Michigan State vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 100.686; Georgia 106.720
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Georgia by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-3 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: Nebraska vs. South Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 97.574; South Carolina 94.573
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3; 51
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+2 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Florida vs. Ohio State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 91.473; Ohio State 92.755
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Florida by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+2 1/2); Over

Game 255-256: Wisconsin vs. Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 107.209; Oregon 114.843
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Oregon by 6; 72
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-6); Under

Game 257-258: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 107.590; Oklahoma State 116.255
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 74
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-3 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Ticket City Bowl

Penn State’s starting QB is out because a WR gave him a concussion in a locker room fight; been tough couple months for Nittany Lions, who have interim coach who is likely to be job hunting Tuesday. State is 9-3 but lost two of last three games, getting whacked 45-7 in finale at Wisconsin- they’re 1-2-1 as an underdog this year. 12-1 Houston got crushed 49-28 in C-USA title game, after being hopeful of landing in BCS bowl; they’re 10-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, but they did allow 34+ points in five games. Cougars lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 42+ points in three of four losses- their only was against Air Force. Penn State is 3-2 in last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five games- they allowed 17 or less points in the three wins, 38-37 in losses.

Outback Bowl

Michigan State-Georgia both lost conference title games; State scored 31+ points in its last five games behind senior QB Cousins; they’re 3-2 as underdogs this year. Georgia started season losing to Boise/South Carolina then won 10 straight, holding eight of those 10 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re 8-2 as favorites this year. Spartans lost their last five bowl games, with four losses by 10+ points; they lost 24-12 (+8.5) to Georgia in Capital One Bowl three years ago; Spartans allowed 41-49 points in last two bowls. Dawgs had their bowl winning streak snapped LY; they had won last four bowl games, scoring 35 ppg. Last seven years, SEC teams are 5-2 vs Big Dozen teams in this game. Big Dozen teams are 17-15 as bowl underdogs since ’06, but are 0-2 this year. SEC bowl favorites are 19-13 vs spread last six years, 1-2 this year.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska scored 34+ points in six of first seven games, then tailed off to 20.6 ppg in last five games; Cornhuskers are 3-4 as underdogs under Pelini, 0-2 this year- they allowed 48-28-45 points in their three losses. South Carolina was 6-1 once they cut troubled QB Garcia, replacing him with sophomore Shaw; Gamecocks held five of last six I-A opponents to 13 or less points, covering four of last five as a favorite. SEC teams been favored over Big Dozen teams in last eight Capital One Bowls, but lost five of last seven SU; Nebraska is 3-2 in its last five bowls but won its last four Florida bowls; they lost 17-14 to Auburn last time they played an SEC team in a bowl. South Carolina lost four of last five bowls, scoring 10-7-17 points in losing last three, all by 9+ points; last time Spurrier faced Huskers in a bowl, his Florida team lost 62-24 in ‘97.

Gator Bowl

Shadow of Urban Meyer hovers over Florida-Ohio State game; Meyer recruited most of these Gators, will coach OSU next year. Florida lost six of last seven games vs I-A foes after 4-0 start; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this year, with Gators 4-2 as a favorite. Buckeyes lost last three games, allowing 38.7 ppg, but they covered last four tries as an underdog. OSU perked up after late October bye week, scoring 27.6 ppg in last five games. Florida scored 24-51-37 points in winning its last three bowls, but those Gators aren’t these Gators; Florida (+7) beat Ohio State 41-14 in national title game five years ago. Buckeyes won last two bowls 26-17/31-26, beating Arkansas of SEC LY, but that was with Tressel on sidelines. Underdogs covered four of last five Gator Bowls. Average total in OSU’s last five bowls is 52.4. Why are these teams playing in this good a bowl?

Rose Bowl

Since 1993, Pac-12 teams other than USC are 1-9 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon won 1917 Rose Bowl over Penn, but hasn’t won it since; they scored 36.1/47.0 ppg in Kelly’s first two seasons, but lost 26-17/22-19 in bowl games; they haven’t won game under Kelly when opponent had more than week to prepare. 11-2 Wisconsin scored 31-29 points in its two losses, giving up last-minute TD passes in both games; this is first time all season they’re an underdog. Badgers are bowl underdog for sixth year in row, losing three of last four; they’ve scored 20 or less points in last five bowls, losing this game LY 21-19 to TCU. Underdogs covered five of last seven Rose Bowls. Only teams to beat Oregon this year were LSU/USC, arguably two of best five teams in country.

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma State scores a ridiculous amount of points, averaging 49.3 ppg; their only loss came in OT at Iowa State on night after a plane crash killed the women’s basketball coach at OSU, which had to be sobering factor. Cowboys are 8-3 as favorites this year, 3-0 if laying single digits- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in four of five games. Stanford was 11-1, losing 53-30 at home to Oregon; they’re underdog for first time this year. Cardinal is in third straight bowl, splitting last two; they’ve lost three of last four bowls overall. In 24 games these teams played this year, only once did either side score less than 30 points (Stanford 28-14 over Notre Dame). Underdogs covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls, with average total in those games 59.2 ppg. Last college game for Cardinal QB Luck and OSU’s 27-year old QB Weeden.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Houston -5.5 500
Houston - Under 56.5 500

Michigan State - 1:00 PM ET Georgia -3.5 500
Georgia - Under 50 500

Nebraska - 1:00 PM ET South Carolina -2 500
South Carolina - Under 46.5 500

Florida - 1:00 PM ET Florida -2 500
Ohio State - Under 44 500

Wisconsin - 5:00 PM ET Oregon -6 500
Oregon - Under 72 500

Stanford - 8:30 PM ET Stanford +3.5 500
Oklahoma State - Over 74 500

[StarDust Bum]

Rose & Fiesta Previews

January 1, 2012

Wisconsin is returning to the Rose Bowl for a second straight season. This time around, the Badgers will take on Oregon from out of the Pac-12.

As of Sunday evening, most betting shops had Oregon (11-2 straight up, 6-5-2 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 72. Gamblers can take Wisconsin to win outright for a plus-190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

Brett Bielema’s team came up short in Pasadena last year, dropping a 21-19 decision to TCU. But the Badgers did cover the number as three-point underdogs.

TCU was in the Rose Bowl because Oregon was in the BCS Championship Game. The Ducks, who lost to Ohio St. in the Rose Bowl two years ago, are in a BCS game for the third straight year under Chip Kelly.

Oregon lost its opener to LSU by a 40-27 count at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, but it responded with nine consecutive victories to get back into the national-title picture. However, thoughts of returning to the BCS Championship Game were shattered on Nov. 19 when Southern Cal went into Eugene and emerged with a 38-35 win as a 16 ½-point underdog.

Kelly’s team won its regular-season finale with a 49-21 win over Oregon St. in annual Civil War battle. The Ducks were favored by 28 so side bets were a push.

The following week, Oregon beat UCLA 49-31 in the inaugural Pac-12 title game but the Bruins took the cash as 31-point underdogs.

Junior quarterback Darron Thomas enjoyed another stellar year, throwing for 2,493 yards and 30 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions. Even though junior RB LaMichael James missed a couple of games, he still rushed for 1,646 yards and 17 TDs with a 7.4 yards-per-carry average.

De’Anthony Thomas lived up to the hype as a true freshman, producing 1,838 all-purpose yards with nine TD catches and five rushing scores. Kenjon Barner also rushed for 909 yards and 11 TD and had a pair of TD receptions.

Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) got an early Christmas gift in August when Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina St., decided on Madison ahead of Auburn. Wilson didn’t disappoint, leading the Badgers to victory in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game while putting up dazzling numbers.

Wilson completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,879 yards with an amazing 31/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson can also scramble and rushed for 320 yards and five TDs.

Montee Ball had a monster campaign, rushing for 1,759 yards and 32 TDs. Ball’s presence helped set up Wilson’s play-action opportunities and, in turn, teams had to be reluctant to stack the box to stop Ball out of fear of Wilson’s aerial accuracy. This combination resulted in a dynamic offensive unit that averaged 44.6 points per game.

Wisconsin’s losses came in back-to-back road games in late October. After winning their first six games by 31 points or more, the Badgers lost 37-31 at Michigan St. on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Seven days later, they lost 33-29 at Ohio St.

Since then, Wisconsin has won five in a row, including a 42-39 revenge victory over the Spartans to win the Big Ten title. However, we should note that the Badgers are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS slide after failing to hook up their backers in the win over MSU as 9 ½-point favorites.

Both schools saw the ‘over’ finish with a 9-4 overall record. The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for Oregon and eight of Wisconsin’s last 10 outings.

ESPN will have the telecast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ., will take center stage in the prime-time slot, featuring Oklahoma St. and Stanford in an 8:30 p.m. Eastern showdown on ESPN.

As of Sunday night, most spots had the Cowboys listed as four-point favorites with the total in the 74-75 range. The Cardinal is available on the money line for a plus-155 payout.

Oklahoma St. (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) finished the regular season in style, trouncing arch-rival Oklahoma by a 44-10 score as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk’ in the Bedlam game in Stillwater. Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith combined to rush for 270 yards and both had two rushing TDs apiece. The OSU defense held OU to a season low in points thanks to two interceptions of Landry Jones.

Mike Gundy’s squad was in prime position to get to the school’s first BCS Championship Game. But on Nov. 18 in Ames, the 10-0 Cowboys blew a 10-point halftime lead in a 37-31 double-overtime loss at Iowa St.

Brandon Weeden threw for 476 yards and three TDs against the Cyclones, but he also had three costly interceptions. For the year, Weeden passed for 4,328 yards with a 34/12 TD-INT ratio.

Weeden had the benefit of one of the nation’s premier WRs in Justin Blackmon, who made 113 catches for 1,336 yards and 15 TDs. Randle rushed for a team-high 1,193 yards and 23 TDs.

Like OSU, Stanford (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) was also unbeaten into the month of November. On Nov. 12, though, Oregon came to Palo Alto and ruined the Cardinal’s national-title hopes by cruising to a 53-30 win as a three-point underdog.

Although Andrew Luck didn’t get his team to New Orleans and he came up short in the Heisman Trophy voting, he still had a great junior year and is a lock to go No. 1 in this year’s NFL Draft.

Luck completed 70-percent of his passes for 3,185 yards with a 35/9 TD-INT ratio. RB Stepfan Taylor gave the offense balance with his running ability, finishing with 1,153 rushing yards and eight TDs. Tyler Gaffney added seven rushing TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.

Coby Fleener led Stanford in TD grabs with 10, while Griff Whalen hauled in a team-high 49 receptions for 664 yards and four scores. Chris Owusu had 35 catches for 376 yards and two TDs before sustaining a second concussion that’s kept him out of the last three games. Owusu is ‘doubtful’ for the Rose Bowl.

The ‘under’ is 6-4-2 overall for Oklahoma St., cashing in each of its last three games. The Cowboys have had five totals in the 70s with the ‘under’ going 3-2 in those instances.

Totals have been an overall wash for Stanford (6-6), but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its last six games. This is the highest total the Cardinal has seen this year. The ‘over’ hit in its lone game with a total in the 70s.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Wisconsin and Stanford are both in their first underdog situations of the season.

--Oregon lost outright in its lone single-digit favorite spot, falling to LSU as a three-point ‘chalk.’

--Oklahoma St. is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year.

--In this recent report from SportsByBrooks, Brooks implies that Urban Meyer might be participating in Ohio State’s preparation for its Gator Bowl showdown vs. Florida. If so, that would be such an Oscar Weiner type move.

--South Carolina is 1-4 in bowl games during Steve Spurrier’s tenure. The Gamecocks will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason when it faces Nebraska on Monday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Bowls - Part II

December 22, 2011

Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams are headed to bowl games this season, including a pair of squads heading to BCS bowls. Apparently, Vegas oddsmakers don't like the Big Ten's chances as seven of the 10 squads are underdogs. Since 2009, the Big Ten is 8-9 straight up and 10-6-1 ATS in bowl games. In BCS bowls in that span, the Big Ten is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS.

TicketCity Bowl from Dallas
Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (+5.5) vs. Houston Cougars
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Houston had a golden opportunity for an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl; all the Cougars had to do was beat Southern Miss in the Conference USA championship game. Houston responded with its worst performance of the season. The Cougars had season-lows in yards and points and record setting QB Keenum had his lowest rated game of the season. It will be difficult for the Cougars to be motivated for this upcoming game in the TicketCity Bowl. Especially considering that head coach Sumlin's name has been thrown around as the hottest name on the market for open coaching candidacies.

On the other side, Penn State endured arguably the worst mid-season scandal/story in the history of College Football. Longtime head coach Paterno was fired and the Nittany Lions sputtered to a 1-2 finished after starting the season 8-1. Because of the rumors of the scandal, more prestigious bowls passed on PSU and the Lions ended up here. Like Houston, it will be difficult for players to be motivated to play here after aspirations of a bigger Bowl.

QB Keenum shattered virtually every NCAA passing mark - career yards, career touchdown passes and total offense - as he threw for more than 5,000 yards for the third time in his career, along with a career-high 45 touchdown passes. However, this team hasn't faced a defense on caliber with Penn State's. PSU has the 10th best defense in the nation and 5th best scoring defense. The closest comparison would be Southern Miss' 31st ranked defense that held Houston to its lowest point & yard total this season.

Something to consider: Penn State has failed to cover 11 of its last 14 games overall and is just 1-5-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Houston is 7-1 ATS its last 8 games but is 1-4 ATS its last five Bowl games.

Gator Bowl from Jacksonville
Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes (+2) vs. Florida Gators
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN2, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Buckeyes and Gators are used to playing in bigger postseason games, but a matchup between two storied programs like Florida and Ohio State (teamed with the recent news that former Florida coach Urban Meyer will coach next season at OSU) will certainly be motivation enough for both of these squads.

We mentioned above that Meyer will take over coaching the Buckeyes next season, but interim coach Luke Fickell will finish up this season by coaching the Bowl game. The extra month of practice should certainly help this young Buckeyes team, particularly quarterback Braxton Miller. The Big Ten freshman of the year showed strong promise and improvement while starting the final eight games, including his 335-yard, three-touchdown performance in the season-ending loss at Michigan.

The immediate concern for the Buckeyes is finding ways to score against a Gators defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense. Ohio State had the worst passing attack in the Big Ten while Florida held opponents to fewer than 167 pass yards per game and allowed just 13 passing touchdowns all season.

After starting 4-0, Florida lost six of its next eight games and didn't beat anybody that finished the regular season with a winning record. The 6-6 mark is Florida's worst regular-season finish since 1987. The Gators averaged just 334 yards per game (102nd nationally) and averaged just 13 points per game against FBS opponents during the final eight weeks of the season.

Something to consider: Florida has won four of its last five Bowl games, including last year against Big Ten Penn State and in 2006 against Ohio State in the BCS Championship. Florida has failed to cover eight straight games while OSU has covered four straight as an underdog.

Capital One Bowl from Orlando
Matchup: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+2.5) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 1:00 p.m.)

Nebraska's first season in the Big Ten had its ups and downs, but with a win here in the Capital One Bowl the Huskers would get to 10 wins and this season can be seen as a success. South Carolina had two narrow losses this season, a three-point defeat to Auburn and a closer-than-the-score-indicates 16 point loss to Arkansas.

Offensively the Huskers are pretty one-dimensional. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead lead the nation's 13th best rush-offense and have combined for 2,105 rush yards and 24 touchdowns. Martinez has never been a huge threat through the air, throwing for less than 2,000 yards and completing just 56% (12 TD and 7 INT).

South Carolina lost arguably the top RB in the nation when RB Marcus Lattimore injured his knee in week seven against Mississippi State. South Carolina's offense was averaging 36 points per game with Lattimore in the lineup, but sputtered to just 22 points per game the final six games without him. QB Shaw took over when SC dismissed starting QB Garcia midseason. Shaw performed well, completing 66% with 12 TD and 6 INT the final seven games.

Defensively the Gamecocks have the clear advantage in this game. South Carolina has the 4th best defense in the nation, 2nd best pass defense, and 13th best scoring defense. The strength is in the defensive line, where defensive ends Ingram, Clowney, and Taylor have wreaked havoc on opposing QB's all season long (combined 19.5 sacks this season).

Nebraska's Blackshirts has shown the ability to be a shutdown defense (allowed just three points to Big Ten Legends champ Michigan State), but were thoroughly dominated by the Big Ten's two best offenses in Michigan and Wisconsin. Wisconsin put up 48 points while Michigan put up 45 (both 20+ point losses for Nebraska).

Something to consider: South Carolina is 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five Bowl games. Nebraska is having an eerily similar finish as last season when it lost three of its final four games, including its Bowl game, after a 9-1 start. This season the Huskers are 2-2 the last four games (1-3 ATS) after a 7-1 start.

Outback Bowl from Tampa
Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (+3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ABC, 1:00 p.m.)

Michigan State will try and rebound after a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, coming up short of the Rose Bowl for the second consecutive season. Last season Sparty didn't respond well in the Capital One Bowl, losing 49-7 to Alabama. Georgia also lost in its conference championship game, losing 42-10 to #1 LSU. The Bulldogs finished with their first 10-win season since 2008 and look for their fifth Bowl win in the last six years.

Offensively, the Spartans have surged since a three-point performance on October 30th at Nebraska. Since then, Sparty is averaging 38.6 points in the past five games. QB Cousins has completed 67% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions over that span. The rush-offense has been surprisingly non-existent for most of the season. MSU ranks just 76th nationally with 143 rush yards per game.

These two squads are very similar defensively. Both squads rank in the top five of total defense and in the top 15 against both the run and the pass. Both squads are off of disappointing efforts as each allowed 42 points in the conference championship losses. Both squads can get after the opposing QB. Georgia was second in the SEC with 34 sacks while MSU led the Big Ten with 41 sacks.

Something to consider: MSU is 0-4 in Bowl games (1-3 ATS) under head coach Dantonio. That includes two double digit losses to SEC schools, including a Capital One Bowl loss to Georgia in 2008. Georgia outgained the Spartans 337-236 and the Bulldogs held Sparty to just 31 rush yards on 34 carries. MSU has the experience factor as QB Cousins and WR's Cunningham and Martin all played in that game.

Rose Bowl from Pasadena
Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers (+5) vs. Oregon Ducks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 5:00 p.m.)

Wisconsin makes its second consecutive trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1998-99 after last year's 21-19 loss to TCU. Oregon will make its second trip to the Rose Bowl in the last three seasons after a 26-17 loss to Ohio State in the 2009 edition. Both will be highly motivated for a different result here.

Both of these offenses couldn't be more different in scheme and style, yet so similar statistically. Oregon runs a fast-paced, no-huddle spread offense to perfection, averaging 515 yards (6th nationally) and 46 points per game (3rd). Wisconsin is more methodical at it uses a mammoth offensive line and an extremely efficient balance of run & pass to chew up the clock and keep the defense guessing. Wisconsin averages 477 yards per game (15th) and 45 points per game (4th).

Wisconsin has the 8th best defense in the nation and 6th best scoring defense. It was a bit exposed against the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship. MSU used its speed and quick hitting plays to rack up 471 yards and 39 points against UW. The Badgers' best defense, in this game, could be its offense. Their offensive line could wear on the smaller Ducks, and the ground game led by Montee Ball - who needs just two touchdowns to set the single-season FBS record - will help keep Oregon's offense off the field.

Something to consider: Oregon coach Chip Kelly has only lost six times in his three years at Oregon. In five of those losses, high-quality teams had extra time to prepare their defenses, including the last two Bowl games. Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven Bowl games - all as an underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Damn Georgia couldn't hold the Spartans...........