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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/8 - 12/12)

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  • #16
    NFL

    Monday, December 12


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    What bettors need to know: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
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    St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 36.5)

    THE STORY
    : The last time the St. Louis Rams squared off with the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC West title and a berth in the playoffs were on the line. The stakes will be considerably lower when the Rams visit Seattle on Monday night. The Seahawks, who are making their second straight appearance in prime time, still have a fleeting chance at a wild card slot while the Rams have already assured themselves of double-digit losses for the fourth time in the past five seasons. Seattle has dominated the rivalry with St. Louis, winning the last 12 of 13 overall and six straight at CenturyLink Field.

    TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

    LINE: Seahawks -10, O/U 37. Oddsmakers had Seattle set around -9.5 at the open, so it's up about half a point since then. The total is sitting around 36.5 or 37.

    ABOUT THE RAMS (2-10): St. Louis bottomed out in last week’s 26-0 loss at San Francisco. The league’s lowest-scoring team managed a season-worst 157 yards of total offense and lost backup QB A.J. Feeley to a broken thumb on his throwing hand. With starter Sam Bradford still hampered by a high ankle sprain, St. Louis may have to turn to untested Tom Brandstater, who has never played a down in the NFL. However, Bradford did participate in Saturday's workout. Running back Steven Jackson was limited to 42 yards in a 24-7 loss to the Seahawks last month.

    ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-7): RB Marshawn Lynch has been the catalyst for the turnaround in Seattle, which has won three of its last four games. Lynch has ripped off four 100-yard games in the last five and has scored a touchdown in eight consecutive games. The only game in which he failed to reach 100 in the last five came against the Rams, when he went for 88 yards on 27 carries. Much-maligned QB Tarvaris Jackson had his best game in the 31-14 rout of the Eagles, going 13 of 16 for 190 yards and a TD.

    TRENDS:

    - St. Louis is 3-13 against the spread in its last 16 games overall.
    - Seattle is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight home games.
    - The over is 5-0 in Seattle's last five home games.
    - St. Louis is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine meetings with Seattle.

    EXTRA POINTS:

    1. Lynch has rushed for 591 yards in the past five games, the most in the NFL.

    2. Rams DE Chris Long has a six-game sack streak, collecting nine in that span.

    3. In the last four meetings in Seattle, the Seahawks have outscored the Rams 114-25.

    PREDICTION: Seahawks 27, Rams 10. St. Louis’ woes in the Pacific Northwest continue.


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    • #17
      NFL

      Monday, December 12


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      Tale of the tape: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
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      St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 36.5)

      Offense


      St. Louis’ offense remains up in the air with starting quarterback Sam Bradford and backup A.J. Feely both questionable and it’s not like the Rams were tearing it up to begin with. They picked up a season-low 157 yards in last week’s 26-0 loss to San Francisco and average only 11.7 points per game this year.

      Steven Jackson is normally the highlight of this offense and is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry this season, but he has been held to just 41.6 rushing yards over the last three games.

      Seattle’s offense also centers around its running back. Marshawn Lynch picked up just 261 rushing yards through his first six games of the year, but has rebounded to post an NFL-best 591 yards since Week 9. He went off for a season-high 148 yards and added a couple of touchdowns in last week’s win over Philadelphia.

      Outside of Lynch, this offense isn’t anything to write home about either, averaging only 298.5 total yards per game (28th in the NFL).

      Edge: Seahawks


      Defense


      Seattle’s pass defense ranks just 20th in the league, but is improving quickly. The Seahawks have picked off 10 passes in the last six games and are giving up about 220 passing yards per contest over that stretch. Meanwhile, the run defense held Frank Gore to just 59 yards on 22 attempts last week and normally allows only 103.7 rushing yards per game this season.

      Chris Long is an immerging star for the Rams and sits tied for third in the league with 12 sacks, helping to hold St. Louis’ opposition to just 208.4 passing yards per game. However, the Rams still give up 24.7 points per game and have the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 157.8 yards per game on the ground.

      Edge: Seahawks


      Special teams


      St. Louis kicker Josh Brown has had a tough year, missing four of his 19 field goals with a long of 49 yards on the year, while Steven Hauschka has missed only three of his 21 attempts for Seattle with a long of 52 yards.

      Seattle kick returner Leon Washington is a major weapon averaging 24.2 yards per attempt on kickoffs and 9.9 yards on punts. St. Louis’ Quinn Porter averages 22.2 yards per kickoff return but his longest return of the year went for just 32 yards.

      Edge: Seahawks


      Word on the street


      "When a guy like that is working that hard and you know what he can do, if we get on our guys and stay on them he's going to do the rest of the work. He gives us a spark, and he doesn't need much." – Seattle left guard Robert Gallery told the team's official website about Lynch.

      “While we are in their stadium it’s going to be really loud, so we’re going to help out and make sure that we try to calm down their pass rush. Got to keep those guys guessing.” - St. Louis running back Steven Jackson about the club’s game plan in Seattle.


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