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**Udog** · 12-07-2011, 07:04 PM

NFL odds: Week 14 opening line report

Philadelphia, the preseason Super Bowl co-favorite, can’t get its top receiver to run hard or go over the middle.

Washington coach Mike Shanahan, supposedly an offensive guru, staked his reputation on Rex Grossman and John Beck.

The Giants have lost four straight, part of an annual second-half collapse, and are reduced to claiming moral victories.

Dallas coach Jason Garrett intentionally took the ball out of his offense’s hands with the game on the line Sunday at Arizona, choosing not to run another play from the Cardinals’ 31-yard line.

He then unintentionally iced his own kicker by calling time. Dan Bailey nailed the 49-yard field goal that didn’t count, and missed the one that did.

Does anyone want to win the NFC Least?

It sounds far-fetched, but at one point many thought this division would send three teams to the playoffs.

NFC East teams have either underperformed or just aren’t very good. None has a winning record ATS.

And they haven’t feasted on the purportedly weaker NFC West. Excluding St. Louis, NFC West teams are 7-5 SU and 9-2-1 ATS against the NFC East. The West is still 7-9 SU and 9-6-1 ATS if you include the hapless Rams.

“The Eagles have been a total flop,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “The Giants? You figure ‘em out. Even though they lost Sunday, they put up the best fight versus Green Bay as anyone has all season.

“Dallas was just getting by even when they were winning,” he added. “To me, it didn’t look like they had it all together. It all makes for a fun game Sunday night.”

That’s when Dallas (7-5) hosts New York (6-6) with the division lead at stake. Books opened the Cowboys as 3 or 3.5-point favorites.

Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace senior race and sports analyst, said he opened the game at 3.5 “to see if we can take a little Giants money.

“I think the public will come in on Dallas,” he continued. “The Giants could come in a little bit flat and this is a good situational spot to back Dallas. I’m curious to see if the sharper bettors will lay the hook.”

The Giants will struggle to shake off the disappointment of narrowly missing a landmark win, Fuhrman said, adding that he views Dallas as the division’s only playoff team.

Despite their mediocrity, the Giants and Cowboys will draw more money than any other Week 14 game. Action is likely to be split fairly evenly.

“You’ve got two teams with such fervent fan bases,” Fuhrman said. “It’s one of those marquee games we look forward to.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5, 41), Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-13.5, 38.5)

The Colts were surprisingly competitive at New England, covering easily as 20.5-point underdogs. But they lost top corner Jerraud Powers to a dislocated elbow.

Incidentally, Fuhrman said he didn’t post a prop on Indy going 0-16 because he didn’t think anyone would bet “No.”

The Browns are 4-8 ATS as road dogs since the start of last season.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (-1.5, 38), Atlanta at Carolina (3, 48), Houston at Cincinnati (-3, 37.5), Philadelphia at Miami (-3, 44)

Michael Vick says he’ll play against the Dolphins, though he won’t be 100 percent. The Eagles sure can use the spark.

But no team has been hotter ATS than the Dolphins. Miami has covered six straight by an average of 14 points, going 4-2 SU.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Oakland at Green Bay (-11, 53)

The Packers are averaging 35 points, and eight of their 12 games have gone over the total. At home, Green Bay has posted a 4-1 O/U mark. The over is 7-5 in Oakland’s games, including 4-2 when the Raiders go on the road.

Carson Palmer (9 INTs in 6 games) remains susceptible to turnovers, another factor that could jack up the score.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Chicago at Denver (-3.5, 35.5), Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (-9, 36.5), Houston at Cincinnati (-3, 37.5)

The Bears offense is a mess without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. This total already dropped a point. Denver has played four unders in Tim Tebow’s seven starts.

The over is 9-3 in Bengals’ games this season, including 4-1 at Paul Brown Stadium.

**Udog** · 12-07-2011, 07:04 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

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Thursday, December 8

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CLEVELAND (4 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 3) - 12/8/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 11

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 12) at BALTIMORE (9 - 3) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (9 - 3) at CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (7 - 5) at GREEN BAY (12 - 0) - 12/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (5 - 7) at NY JETS (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 10) at DETROIT (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 8) at MIAMI (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (7 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 9) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 2) at ARIZONA (5 - 7) - 12/11/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 5) at DENVER (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 7) - 12/11/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (6 - 6) at DALLAS (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 12

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ST LOUIS (2 - 10) at SEATTLE (5 - 7) - 12/12/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-07-2011, 07:05 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, 12/8/2011

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
CLEVELAND: 7-1 Under L8 Wks
PITTSBURGH: 10-22 ATS as double digit favorite

Sunday, 12/11/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 1-7 ATS L8 games
BALTIMORE: 10-2 ATS at home after gaining 400+ total yds

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 2-10 ATS off SU dog win
CINCINNATI: 1-10 ATS as home favorite

OAKLAND at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
OAKLAND: 6-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS off 2 game road trip

KANSAS CITY at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 11-2 ATS off road game
NY JETS: 39-66 ATS at home off Away game

MINNESOTA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 13-28 ATS Away after gaining 400+ yds
DETROIT: 7-0 Over off road loss

NEW ORLEANS at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Over Away if total is 45.5 to 49
TENNESSEE: 38-16 ATS vs. NFC

PHILADELPHIA at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 32-17 Under after allowing 30+ pts
MIAMI: 9-0 Under playing w/ 6 or less days rest

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 9-0 Over after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game
WASHINGTON: 58-38 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

ATLANTA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games
CAROLINA: 19-4 Under off road division win

TAMPA BAY at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 7-0 ATS after allowing 150+ rush yds BB games
JACKSONVILLE: 6-16 ATS off ATS loss

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-1-1 ATS in all games
ARIZONA: 3-14 ATS at home off BB wins

CHICAGO at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO: 8-27 ATS in December road games
DENVER: 17-1 Over at home after allowing 300+ pass yards

BUFFALO at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
BUFFALO: 11-1 ATS Away off 3+ losses
SAN DIEGO: 2-9 ATS if 50+ total pts scored last game

NY GIANTS at DALLAS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY GIANTS: 22-10 ATS Away after allowing 30+
DALLAS: 3-14 ATS as favorite

Monday, 12/12/2011

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
ST LOUIS: 16-6 Under in road games
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS off win by 14+

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-07-2011, 07:06 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Browns (4-8) @ Steelers (9-3)—Pittsburgh won 14 of last 15 series games, with last four wins all by 13+ points; Browns are 0-7 here, with six of seven losses by 11+- they scored 14 or less points in last six series games. Steelers won seven of last eight games; they’re 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 24-21-4-8-28 points, with only loss to Ravens. Browns lost five of last six games; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing on foreign soil by 7-10-18-3 points, with only win at winless Indy. Teams are 8-2 vs spread (2-0 as favorites) week after playing the Bengals. Home teams are 2-5-21 vs spread in AFC North divisional games (over is 5-2-1 in those games). Under is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games, 3-1-1 in Steelers’ last five. Browns are 0-7 when they allow 20+ points.

Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5)—KC put newly-acquired QB Orton in for start of 2nd quarter at Chicago last week; he dislocated index finger on passing hand the first play, so Palko was back under center- he completed 38-yard Hail Mary on last play of half, just Chiefs’ 2nd TD on last 54 drives, as KC snapped 4-game skid. Chiefs won three of last four away games; they’re 4-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-3-31 points. Jets are 7-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 3-29-18-6-4 points, with loss to Patriots. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread. Home side won four of last five Chief-Jet games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last seven KC games stayed under total; seven of Jets’ last ten went over.

Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3)—Winless Colts are back in town they deserted 28 years ago; Indy won nine of last 11 series games and eight in row, but Manning was under center for those games, not Orlovsky, who was terrific in garbage time last week, but helped dig Colts 31-3 hole before that. Indy is 1-7 vs spread in last eight games; they’re 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 27-7-10-55-17-7 points. Last time Colts started drive on plus side of field was Week 3; over their last seven games, they’re -14 in turnovers. Ravens are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 28-17-15-3-7-10 points. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Teams are 1-9 SU (1-2 as favorites) the week after playing Cleveland; underdogs are 2-2 the week after playing New England. Three of last four Raven games stayed under the total.

Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5)—First NFL road start for rookie QB Yates, but Texans won/covered last six games, allowing only three TD’s on 47 drives in last four games. Houston is 4-2 on road, losing at Saints/Ravens; all four wins were by 10+ points. Bengals lost three of last four games, with all three L’s to Steelers/Ravens; Cincy is 3-2 at home, losing to Steelers/49ers- they’ve got only four takeaways in last five games (-4) after taking ball away 11 times in first eight games (+3). Home side won three of last four series games, with Houston winning last two meetings, 35-6/28-17. Teams are 8-3 SU (3-2 as dogs) week after playing Atlanta; teams are 3-7 SU (0-4 as favorites) week after playing Pittsburgh. Under is 7-2 in last nine Houston games; 2-5-1 in last eight Bengal tilts.

Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0)—Green Bay playing for history now, only four wins away from 16-0 season; they’re 13-5 vs spread during this epic win streak, 4-1 as home favorites this year, winning at Lambeau by 8-26-21-38-9 points. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve won three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 20 at Miami, 3 at Buffalo on foreign soil (4-2 SU). Pack won last five series games, with four of the five wins by 13+ points; Raiders lost last three visits here, by 28-4-31 points, after winning first three visits. AFC West road underdogs are 5-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North home favorites are 8-6. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread week after playing Miami; favorites are 2-2 week after playing the Giants. Four of last five Oakland games, five of last six Packer tilts went over total.

Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5)—Frustration mounting for playoff-starved Detroit squad that’s been beating itself with immature play; Lions lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start, during which time they beat Vikings 26-23 in OT at Metrodome, after trailing 20-0 at half. Detroit scored 24+ points in all seven wins, 19 or less in every loss; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Ford Field by 45-11-14 points, but they’ve lost three of last four at home, Hapless Vikings lost last four games, giving up 32.8 ppg; they’re 2-2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-5-29-38-10 points, with a win at Carolina. Lions have 22 penalties for 189 yards in last two games; is NFL sending them message for not disciplining their players themselves? Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.

Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5)—New Orleans is 6-0 at home, scoring 39.8 ppg, just 3-3 on road, allowing 26.5 ppg with losses to Rams/Bucs, two of worst teams in NFL; Saints are 2-2 on grass, outscoring foes 109-105. Tennessee won three of last four games, running ball for 389 yards last two weeks, as Johnson suddenly found his form- they were averaging 77.3 yards/game on ground up until then. Titans are 4-2 at home, losing to Texans/Bengals; they’re 5-1-1 vs spread as underdogs this year. Titans won last four series games, with three wins by 15+ points; last Saint series win was in 1993. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-11-1 vs spread, 3-4 at home; NFC South road favorites are also 3-4. Last six Tennessee games, three of last four Saint games stayed under. Saints won/covered last four games since awful loss in St Louis.

Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8)—Two teams with same record going in opposite directions; Miami won four of last five games after 0-7 start, outscoring foes 89-31 in winning last three home games, allowing two garbage-time TD’s in last 33 home possessions- they’re 3-0 as a favorite this year. Eagles lost four of last five games, giving up 10.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt in last two games- they’re expected to get Vick back under center here, but they lost his last two starts, too. Philly has had edge in field position only four times this year, but they lost three of those four games- they played last Thursday- underdogs that lost the previous Thursday are 0-2 vs spread this year. Under is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last five home games. NFC East non-divsional underdogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 on road. AFC East home favorites are 7-5-1.

Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8)—New England won last four games (3-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in all four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Patriots are +8 in turnovers (9-1) in those games- they’re 4-2 on road, with all four wins by 12+ points (losses at Bills/Steelers). Redskins lost seven of last eight games, dropping last four at home by 7-8-3-15 points. Skins led Jets with 5:00 left last week, but gave up three TDs in x:xx and lost 34-19. Washington won six of last eight series games but lost 52-7 at Foxboro in last meeting, vs 18-1 Pats, who lost only two visits here, 22-17 in ’03, 24-22 in ’81. Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Colts; underdogs are likewise 1-4 week after playing the Jets. Last two weeks, AFC teams have won eight of ten against NFC opponents. Brady vs Grossman is severe QB mismatch.

Falcons (7-5) @ Panthers (4-8)—Atlanta won four of last five series games, beating Carolina 31-17 (-4) at home in Week 6, with +3 turnover ratio leading to +13 edge in field position; they’ve won last three series games by 21-21-14 points, are 7-4 here, but this series has also been split four of last five years. Falcons were held to 14 or less points in four of their five losses; barring a monsoon, Carolina ain’t holding them under 14. Carolina won last two games, scoring 27-38 points; they’re 2-4 at home, beating Jaguars/Redskins. Panthers are 3-2 as underdogs this year, but eight of their ten losses are by 5+ points. NFC home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Last eight Falcon games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went over.

Buccaneers (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9)— Tampa Bay lost last six games (1-5 vs spread), Jaguars lost last three and are on short week with smaller coaching staff after last week’s firings; they gave up last 24 points of game in sloppy home loss to Chargers Monday night. Tampa Bay is 1-3 as a favorite this year, 1-5 away from home, with only win in Week 2 at Minnesota when they trailed 17-0 at half. Jags have three TD’s on last 31 drives, scoring 12.3 ppg in losses last three weeks by 4-7-24 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, with all four decided by 7 or less points; Bucs lost both visits here, 29-24/17-10. Bucs allowed 365 rushing yards last two weeks, good news for fantasy owners who have Jones-Drew. Usually bad teams don’t respond well after losing national TV game, but if Freeman is still out for Bucs, who knows?

49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7)—Niners clinched division last week, but real prize is first round bye, so they’ve got to keep going here, vs Arizona team they beat 23-7 (-9.5) at Candlestick three weeks ago. 49ers outgained Arizona 431-229, outrushed them 164-80, forced five turnovers (+4) and converted 8-21 3rd down plays in that game, but that was with Skelton, not Kolb under center for Cards. Redbirds won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 3-2 at home, with 32-20 loss to Steelers only home loss by more than 4 points; they’re 1-2 as home dog this year. SF has started 26 drives in enemy territory, compared to six for opponents; they’re +18 in turnovers, Arizona is -8. 49ers won last five series games, with last four by average score of 28-7; Niners won last two visits to desert, 20-16/27-6.

Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5)—Denver now 6-1 with Tebow starting at QB, winning last three weeks by 4-3-3 points; if game is close late, Broncos have supreme confidence in ability to pull game out. Can’t say same for Bears, who lost both of Hanie’s starts by 5-7 points; he’s thrown six INTs in two starts, converted only 6 of 25 3rd down plays and looks lost. Chicago had turned ball over only 12 times in Cutler’s 10 starts. Denver won/covered last five games; in four of their 12 games this year, the first Bronco TD was scored by defense/special teams. Bears won last two series meetings 19-10/37-34; four of last five series totals were 29 or less. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; three of Denver’s last four stayed under. Maybe return to Rocky Mountains will help Hanie (went to school at Colorado State) some here.

Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)—San Diego snapped 6-game skid Monday night on road vs anemic Jaguars, averaging 10.5 yards/pass attempt, getting them within two games of top spot in AFC West, but Chargers lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points- their last home win was October 2. Bolts have severe injury issues on OL, playing on short week could be problem. San Diego is 3-5 as favorite this year, 1-4 at home. Buffalo lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 2-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4, with Week 1 win at Arrowhead. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Bills lost last four trips here, by 33-2-3-38 points- their last win here was in ’81. AFC East road underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Underdogs are 0-6 vs spread this season the week after playing Tennessee.

**Udog** · 12-07-2011, 07:07 PM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 8

8:20 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Cleveland

Sunday, December 11

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Carolina's last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 17 of New England's last 23 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TENNESSEE
New Orleans is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. DENVER
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Chicago

4:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
BUFFALO vs. SAN DIEGO
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Monday, December 12

8:30 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

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**Udog** · 12-08-2011, 08:09 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
The Browns look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a 35-7 win over Cincinnati and is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points. Cleveland is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by only 12. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8

Game 101-102: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.829; Pittsburgh 138.625
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.175; Baltimore 141.201
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 21; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 16; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-16); Under

Game 107-108: Houston at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 140.007; Cincinnati 134.869
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 109-110: Oakland at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.088; Green Bay 143.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11); Under

Game 111-112: Kansas City at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.060; NY Jets 135.460
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9); Over

Game 113-114: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.179; Detroit 131.561
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8); Under

Game 115-116: New Orleans at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.913; Tennessee 134.324
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Over

Game 117-118: Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.662; Miami 134.139
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under

Game 119-120: New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.147; Washington 128.318
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Over

Game 121-122: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.025; Carolina 134.186
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 123-124: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.455; Jacksonville 122.669
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+1); Over

Game 125-126: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.076; Arizona 131.812
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Chicago at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.045; Denver 133.090
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Buffalo at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.612; San Diego 136.381
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6 1/2); Over

Game 131-132: NY Giants at Dallas (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.305; Dallas 131.471
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3 1/2); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12

Game 133-134: St. Louis at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.480; Seattle 134.089
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Over

**Udog** · 12-08-2011, 08:14 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 8

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Thursday Night Football: Browns at Steelers
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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 38.5)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers have an outside chance of wrapping up a playoff berth this week, and playing one of their favorite opponents certainly won't hurt their chances. Pittsburgh goes for its fourth consecutive victory and eighth win in nine games when it hosts the struggling Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. It shapes up as a mighty uphill struggle for the punchless Browns, who have dropped 14 of the last 15 to the Steelers and haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2003. The Steelers are in a four-way tie with New England, Houston and Baltimore for the best record in the AFC.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Steelers opened as two-touchdown favorites and haven't moved much off that key number. The total has dropped from 40 to 38.5 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures will fall into the high 20s in Heinz Field. The will be a slight 6-mph winds, blowing WSW.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (4-8, 3-7-2 ATS): Cleveland is playing the first of three straight road games before closing out the season at home against Pittsburgh. The Browns managed only 233 yards of total offense in a 24-10 loss to Baltimore last week. It marked the 10th time this season they have been held to 17 points or fewer. Cleveland allowed 290 yards rushing by the Ravens, including 204 by Ray Rice. QB Colt McCoy failed to throw for 200 yards for the third straight game and suffered a sprained knee that will limit his mobility against the Steelers.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-3, 6-6 ATS): Pittsburgh played perhaps its best all-around game of the season in a 35-7 win over Cincinnati. Rashard Mendenhall rushed for a pair of TDs as the Steelers scored 28 points in the second quarter. Ben Roethlisberger threw a pair of scoring passes to WR Mike Wallace and Pittsburgh’s defense did the rest, limiting Cincinnati to 13 first downs and 232 yards. Mendenhall’s rushing totals are down, but he has run for five touchdowns in the last four games. LB James Harrison turned in his second three-sack effort in the last four games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Browns are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Wallace needs 23 yards to reach 1,000 for the second straight season.

2. Josh Cribbs of the Browns has returned three kickoffs for TDs against the Steelers.

3. Cleveland and Pittsburgh rank 1-2 in passing yards allowed, but in the Browns’ case it’s because opponents are content to run all over them.

PREDICTION: Steelers 27, Browns 10. Roethlisberger improves to 13-1 against Cleveland.

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**Udog** · 12-08-2011, 08:17 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 8

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Tale of the tape: Browns at Steelers
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The AFC North takes center stage Thursday night, with two teams headed in separate directions.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are rounding into form and look ready for a postseason push. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have just one win in their last six games and are counting the days until the end of the year.

Here’s the Tale of the Tape for Thursday Night Football:

Offense

During the past six games, Cleveland is averaging only 13 points an outing. Running back Peyton Hillis isn’t at 100 percent and has been vanilla in his two games back from a hamstring/hip injury. He mustered only 45 yards on 12 carries in Week 13.

The passing game hasn’t been much better. Quarterback Colt McCoy was 17 for 35, throwing for 192 yards, one touchdown and one interception in last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. McCoy suffered a knee injury in that game, but could play Thursday despite the short week.

Hillis happened to be the Browns’ top receiving option in that game too, catching one pass for a 52-yard gain. Tight end Ben Watson reeled in three passes for 34 yards, in an offense that goes have the horses to pose a downfield threat.

Pittsburgh’s receiving corps is one of the fastest in the NFL, with burners like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown streaking up the sidelines. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 15 of 23 pass attempts for 176 yards and two scores, despite an injured thumb.

The Steelers' passing game is the best part of their offense. The club is in the NFL's Top 10 for passing yards per game and passing yards per completion. The Yellow and Black make the best of their red zone opportunities, too. Pitt finds paydirt 53 percent of the time it gets inside the 20 and 73 percent over the last three games.

Edge: Steelers

Defense

Pittsburgh’s defense is ramping up for the playoffs, holding its last two opponents to single digits. The Steelers limited the Kansas City Chiefs to nine points on 252 total yards, and held the Bengals to a touchdown and 232 total yards Sunday.

Linebacker James Harrison unleashed the fury on Cincinnati, picking up three sacks and six tackles last week. Corner Ike Taylor made seven tackles and picked off one pass versus the Bengals. The Steelers rank No. 1 in yards allowed and are giving up just 16.2 points per game – fourth lowest in the NFL.

The Browns defense still remains the team’s lone bright spot, raking eighth in the NFL. Despite the loss of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, Cleveland has maintained the league best pass defense, giving up 173.3 yards through the air per game.

However, those numbers may be skewed, since opponents have been able to roll over the Browns running defense, which ranks 31st in the NFL, and can all but abandon the pass when they can easily break off big chunks of yardage on the ground. Baltimore ran for 290 yards on 55 carries versus Cleveland last week, with RB Ray Rice totaling 204 yards and one score.

Edge: Pittsburgh

Special teams

Cleveland return specialist Josh Cribbs ranks sixth in the NFL in kick return yards, averaging 26.4 per return while picking up an average of nine yards on punt returns.

Cribbs has the attention of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, after burning Pittsburgh on special teams throughout his career. Cribbs is tied for an NFL record three return touchdowns against a single opponent.

Kicker Phil Dawson is tied for 19th in the NFL for field goals made and is kicking at a 79.2 percent rate. However, he does have a big leg, going 7 for 8 on field goals of 50 or more yards.

Pittsburgh is eighth in average kick return yards, at 25.6 per kickoff, and punt return yards, at 11.7 per punt. Brown has been the Steelers go-to guy on returns, averaging 27.8 per kick and 12.2 per punt including one punt return TD.

Kicker Shaun Suisham is hitting only 75 percent of his field goal attempts and doesn’t have the biggest boot, going 6 for 8 from 40-49 yards and 0-1 from 50 yards or more.

Edge: Browns

Word on the street

"If we would have played them 14 or 15 times this year, then yes. But the team we are assembling and the team they are assembling are different than some of the teams that have taken part in that history.” – Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin about the Steelers be confident after winning 14 of the last 15 games with the Browns.

"At this point we'll just have to see. I think he got hit on a screen pass. It was kind of a glancing shot and then he played the whole game so I think he's probably just sore. I wouldn't say that he would miss the game." – Browns head coach Pat Shurmur on the status of McCoy for Thursday.

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**Udog** · 12-08-2011, 08:20 AM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NFL

Indianapolis at Baltimore: Open: -15 Move: -16.5

Last week the Colts opened as three-touchdown underdogs against New England and managed to cover just their third pointspread of the season with a late surge. That was likely at the forefront of everybody's mind early this week.

"Linemakers overreacted to the Colts backdoor against New England and started this number a little too short," Fuhrman says. "The opening price said the Ravens were +6 on a neutral against the Patriots which I'd argue isn't true at all and bettors agreed as they bet this game up immediately. I think we see years of Ravens frustration taken out on the Colts, making this one a lay it or don't play it scenario."

New England at Washington Open: +7 Move: +8.5

You just know Bill Belichick was drooling over the last few weeks of the regular season when it came out. After getting by the Colts last week, the Pats finish off with at Washington and at Denver before closing out at home against Miami and Buffalo.

"Patriots lines need to be inflated by at least 1.5 points each week as they finish out their schedule against league bottom feeders," Fuhrman says. "Even with the uptick over a TD I think Redskins money will be hard to come by all week long. Come game day, I'm already full aware that I'd be sporting a Rex Grossman jersey - if I owned one."

Buffalo at San Diego Open: -6.5 Move: -7

A show of hands of anybody who is actually surprised Philip Rivers and the Chargers finally showed up after their season is already heading down the drain? Easily the most frustrating team to handicap this season.

"Are the Chargers back after Monday Night or are the Bills that bad? I think it's a combination of both right now," Fuhrman says. "Every game from here on out will require postseason intensity from the Bolts, while the Bills have been in free fall during this recent losing skid and continue to struggle sustaining any defensive consistency."

Philadelphia at Miami Open: over/under 44 Move: 45.5

We'll never know if Philadelphia's season would have played out any different if Michael Vick didn't get hurt, but at least we'll get another look at this club with him taking the snaps. That in itself is drawing some action on this matchup.

"Vick factor in full force for this total move," Fuhrman says. "He may not move the pointspread much right now with all the other Eagles injuries but his erratic play can lead to points for both his team and opponents. Interesting to note that the 1.5-point move takes it across a key number when handicapping totals, so I expect some buyback later in the week.

NCAAF

Army vs. Navy Open: over/under 56.5 Move: 57.5

No significant movement yet on the annual Army-Navy game that goes Saturday afternoon. Keep a close eye on this one though. With no other college games on the board and the pointspread sitting at Navy -7, heavy action could move this game either way.

**Udog** · 12-09-2011, 02:55 PM

NFL cheat sheet: Week 14 betting notes

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Why Falcons cover: They’re in the playoff hunt and would like to stay in it, so they’ve got plenty of motivation to get the win and cover. Atlanta 15-5-1 ATS last 21 vs. losing teams, while Carolina 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams. Then there’s this unusual stat: Falcons 12-1 ATS last 13 after scoring less than 15 in previous game.

Why Panthers cover: QB Cam Newton sure doesn’t look like a rookie. The guy can throw (3,297 yards) and run (513 yards, 13 TDs), and he even had a big reception in last week’s 38-19 rout at Tampa. Home team in this rivalry has covered six of last seven.

Total (48): Falcons flying low a lot lately, with total going under eight games in a row. Under also 12-3-1 last 16 Atlanta-Carolina meetings in Charlotte.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)

Why Colts cover: They’ve been double-digit dogs four times this season and they’ve cashed three times in that spot, including last week’s 31-24 loss at New England catching a whopping 20.5 points. In this rivalry, Indy also on 7-0 ATS roll overall and has covered four straight in Baltimore.

Why Ravens cover: Offense seems to be getting in gear, particularly RB Ray Rice, who went haywire last week for 204 yards in a rout at Cleveland. And defense among league’s best, standing third in points allowed (16.0) and yards allowed (287.3).

Total (41): These two teams have met regularly over the past several years and one common theme has been unders, which are 7-1 in last eight contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Why Eagles cover: The really bad Dream Team welcomes back QB Michael Vick (broken ribs), who returns after missing three games, which could help Philly halt season-killing 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Miami 1-5 ATS last six vs. losing teams.

Why Dolphins cover: Fish are among hottest teams at betting window lately, covering in six straight games and taking four of last five SU. Philly has dumped six in a row ATS against losing teams.

Total (45): Over has hit in 10 of Philly’s last 12 roadies, but Miami on bundle of under streaks, including 9-1-1 overall.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Why Saints cover: They’re on a hot streak as they surge toward the playoffs, winning and covering last four in a row, including the last three over playoff contenders Atlanta, the Giants and Detroit. New Orleans putting up 32.8 ppg (second) with league’s most productive offense (448.7 ypg).

Why Titans cover: They’ve also cashed four straight (3-1 SU) and are stout in the underdog role, with ATS streaks of 5-1 overall and 9-2 at home. And RB Chris Johnson finally looking like, well, Chris Johnson, following up 190-yard day against Tampa Bay with 153 yards in win at Buffalo last week. Saints 3-8 ATS last 11 on highway.

Total (48.5): Titans tend to keep score low lately, with under on runs of 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (N/A)

Why Vikings cover: Vikings catching Detroit in a big downslide, as Lions are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games. It appears stud RB Adrian Peterson will return, which will help Minnesota. Vikes 7-3-3 ATS last 13 in this NFC North rivalry.

Why Lions cover: Getting desperate for victories to avoid falling out of playoff chase. Despite recent drought, Lions still 10-4 ATS last 14 at home dome.

Total: Under 8-2 last 10 roadies for Vikings, 4-1 last five at home for Lions, 6-1 last seven in this rivalry and 4-0 last four Minny-Detroit clashes in Motor City.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: Coming off 10-3 road upset of Chicago as 9-point underdogs. In fact, K.C. likes the underdog role, going 7-1 ATS last eight overall and 4-1 ATS last five as road pup.

Why Jets cover: If Mark Sanchez & Co. want to stay in this playoff chase, they’ve got to win some games and look like a playoff team in doing so. Maybe facing a losing team is just what they need, as they are 4-1 ATS last five against sub-.500 units.

Total (36.5): Add up Kansas City’s point totals for the past five games and you don’t even get to 36.5, with Chiefs scoring 10 points twice and single digits three times. Under has hit seven in a row for Todd Haley’s troops. On flip side, over 22-8 in Jets’ last 30 overall.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Why Texans cover: Arian Foster can help mask a lot of weaknesses, such as playing third-string QB T.J. Yates. Foster already has 916 rushing yards and another 510 receiving, helping surging Houston to six consecutive SU wins and a 5-0-1 ATS mark in that stretch. Cincy on ill-timed nosedive, losing three of last four SU while going 0-3-1 ATS.

Why Bengals cover: They’ve got to bounce back at some point and facing Texans perhaps not as bad as facing Pittsburgh twice and Baltimore once, as Cincy has done during its current slide. This is Bengals’ chance to restore playoff hopes.

Total (37.5): Texans on over runs of 8-2 as dogs, 6-1 as road pups and 24-9 vs. winning teams, and Bengals on over surges of 7-2 overall and 4-0 at home.

New England Patriots (-9) at Washington Redskins

Why Patriots cover: It’s time for the postseason push, and New England is just far superior to Washington. Pats have won four straight, with three wins coming by 18 points or more. Conversely, Skins have dumped seven of last eight SU and gone 2-6 ATS in that stretch.

Why Redskins cover: This is a tough one. About all that can be said is nine points is a lot to be getting at home, particularly since Pats beat winless Colts by just a touchdown last week in Foxborough.

Total (47.5): Final score has gone over in three of last four for both these teams and over 11-4 in Pats’ last 15 roadies. But Washington sports under streaks of 8-2 vs. winning teams and 13-6 overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (N/A)

Why Buccaneers cover: For the pride of being the best NFL team in Florida north of Miami. Now that’s a lot to play for. Miserable Jags opened 2011 season with win and cover and have gone 2-9 SU (3-7-1 ATS) since then.

Why Jaguars cover: This team is nothing to write home about, but lately, you wouldn’t even want to pay for the stamp with Tampa Bay, which is on a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS freefall.

Total: Jags average just 12.7 ppg (31st), and Bucs have scored 19 or less five times during their current skid. Under 6-1 Jacksonville’s last seven.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the NFL covering the number better than Niners this year, who are a stout 10-1-1 ATS, two games better than any other team in the league. And San Fran owns this NFC West rivalry, cashing six straight overall (5-1 SU) and five in a row in the desert.

Why Cardinals cover: This is a team on the upswing, though far too late to make a difference. Cardinals on 4-1 SU and ATS run, including overtime upset of visiting Cowboys last week. Niners 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road chalk.

Total (39.5): Tons of under streaks for both teams. San Fran on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on highway and 8-2-1 as road favorite. Arizona on under runs of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in NFC West and 10-4 at home.

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Why Bears cover: After dropping last two games, they need a win badly to stay relevant in NFC playoff picture. Denver 16-34-1 ATS last 54 games as home favorite.

Why Broncos cover: Denver has won five in a row SU and ATS, and Bears – already reeling at loss of QB Jay Cutler –won’t have stud RB Matt Forte this week. That puts lot of pressure on inexperienced QB Caleb Hanie.

Total (35.5): Denver has played some ugly offensive games, with under hitting three in a row before last week’s explosion in 35-32 win at Minnesota. Yet the Tebows are on over streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 laying points and 9-2 in December. Over has also hit in four of Chicago’s last five.

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Why Bills cover: Bills had terrific start to season but have been awful for weeks. That said, Chargers have been huge disappointment and are just 1-6 SU and ATS last seven.

Why Chargers cover: Maybe, just maybe, they turned corner in 38-14 road rout of Jacksonville last week. Amazingly enough, San Diego could still win AFC West, so they’ve got plenty to play for, while Bills are virtually dead in playoff race after losing five straight games (1-4 ATS).

Total (47.5): Bills tend to play to over (9-3-1 last 13 overall, 6-0-1 last seven roadies), but under seems to be the play with Chargers at Qualcomm, hitting nine of last 10.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)

Why Raiders cover: Lambeau Field is not where you want to travel right now, but still, 11 points is a lot to be catching – Pack 8-17-2 ATS last 27 laying more than 10. Oakland in a good bounce-back bet, cashing seven of last eight after SU loss and they’d covered six straight on highway before last week’s letdown at Miami.

Why Packers cover: Why not? Almost nothing bad to say about defending Super Bowl champs, who have won 18 consecutive games and gone 13-5 against spread in that span. Packers lead league at 35 ppg, a dozen more than Raiders’ average (22.8). And Aaron Rodgers is just ridiculous – 37 TDs, 5 INTs.

Total (52.5): Over has been play in four of Raiders’ last five and five of Packers last six.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Why Giants cover: It’s do-or-die for Big Blue, who can put very ill-timed four-game slide behind them if they can knock off NFC East rival, whom they’ve beaten on last two trips to Dallas. Cowboys on several noteworthy pointspread purges, including 1-5 overall, 3-13-1 laying points and 5-14 in December.

Why Cowboys cover: Giants also struggling in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 1-4 in division play and 2-6-1 against winning teams. And Dallas has been stewing all week while getting grilled by media for overtime loss at Arizona. Cowboys have incentive with chance to take full control of NFC East.

Total (48.5): Last four games in this rivalry have all gone high and featured minimum of 53 points. Last year’s clash in Dallas was a 41-35 win for New York, and in 2009, Giants won 33-31.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (N/A)

Why Rams cover: More important, why is this game in the Monday night spotlight? Not much to say in Rams’ defense, but Seattle 2-6 ATS last eight in December.

Why Seahawks cover: Despite starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Seattle 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games. And Seahawks have Rams’ number, cashing eight of last nine overall and four in a row at home.

Total: Rams are like pimply faced kid at the prom, hoping to score, but it never really happens. St. Louis averaging league-worst 11.7 ppg. That makes it reasonable to think under, which is 4-1 in Rams’ last five overall and 18-7-1 last 26 inside NFC West. Seattle, though, on over streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-0 in December and 17-6 overall.

**Udog** · 12-09-2011, 02:55 PM

NFL

Week 14

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NFL Total Bias: Week 14's best over/under bets
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Keep it simple, stupid.

You’ve heard that a million times, but if you’re ever going to take that advice, ‘tis the season, friends.

Check your schedule lately? Mine’s absolutely terrifying right now and only getting remarkably worse by the day. If you’re anything like me, your home life revolves around endless machinegun fire of life-shattering questions.

Her: Is it a lunch-dinner or a dinner-dinner with your family on Boxing Day?

You: Say what?

Her: Did you get that thing that we talked about for your cousin Chad?

You: Who’s Chad?

Her: Can you at least make it to my Christmas party this year?

You: Will I be fed and do I have to wear a tie?

And while you’re looking for cover from the crossfire of questions, you’re supposed to make time for the essentials - handicapping, eating, and drinking. It’s a hell of a daunting task even for the best of us.

If you’ve learned anything from your years on this planet, you know that simplicity is the only way you’re getting through this. Commit to what you have to and put everything else off as long as possible.

Do not set foot in a shopping ****. If you’re somebody that I have an inkling of fondness for, chances are you’re getting a sports jersey for Christmas and you’re going to love it whether you like it or not. It’s the only way to go. The hardest part is deciding which ones you can actually part with for gifts once they arrive at your door.

It’s so simple – and that’s how you have to handicap games this time of year too. I’m terrible for taking my own advice (and God knows my record doesn’t hold much weight), but the worst thing you can do this time of year is start overanalyzing your picks.

You’ve watched these teams all year. You do your homework. You know your strengths and weaknesses as a bettor. So sit down, block off some time and make your damn picks and be done with it.

Or, you can take my picks and blame me when they go up in flames. That’s what you’re here for anyway, right?

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48.5)

Each of the last four meetings between these two teams has played over and this one shouldn’t be any different as long as Jason Garrett’s Cowboys don’t implode in front of us.

That isn’t exactly out of the question considering last week’s fiasco, but the Boys are a much better home team. They’re averaging more than 28 points per game in Texas and, with Eli pulling his best Peyton impersonation, they’re going to need a bunch of majors here.

This number’s probably on its way up as kickoff nears, so you may want to get in on it early.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45.5)

Early action bumped this total from 44 to 45.5 as of Thursday afternoon, thanks in large part to Michael Vick’s return. I think the line’s moving the wrong way.

Vick will certainly make plays, but this Dolphins defense is not to be trifled with right now. They’re allowing just 8.8 points per game over their last five and shut out the Raiders through three quarters last week. Oakland finished with just 46 rushing yards.

Miami has played over just twice all season so stick to the numbers and don’t get caught up in the Vick hype.

Pick: Under

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (3.5, 48.5)

Do you realize the Saints haven’t played a game outdoors since Week 6? No freaking wonder they’re 6-1 straight up and against the spread during that stretch.

While it’s not like they’ll be battling the elements on the frozen tundra or anything, early forecasts are already predicting some significant rain and wind in Nashville Sunday. That’s perfect for Tennessee’s ground-and-pound.

And did I mention the Titans have played under in six straight?

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record to date: 22-18

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**Kaptain** · 12-09-2011, 06:22 PM

thanks for all your hard work U Dog.....much appreciated

**Udog** · 12-11-2011, 12:48 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 11

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NFL betting weather report: Week 14
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Find out how weather will impact your wagers in Week 14 of the NFL season:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 39.5)

So much for the Sunshine State – rain is in the forecast when these Florida teams meet. There is a 30 percent chance of showers with winds, blowing NNE, at speeds of up to 15 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45.5)

The forecast for Miami is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers with winds, blowing ENE, at speeds of up to 15 mph.

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**Udog** · 12-11-2011, 12:52 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 11

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Sunday Night Football: Giants at Cowboys
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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 49.5)

THE STORY: Since the early-season demise of the Dream Team in Philadelphia, the NFC East title has been there for the taking. Problem is, no team in the division seems inclined to take it. That will change Sunday night when the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants in a matchup that could go a long way in deciding the both teams' postseason fates – especially with a rematch looming in the regular-season finale. Dallas had seemingly taken control of the division, ripping off four consecutive victories before last week's perplexing 19-13 overtime loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals. The Giants, meanwhile, were in command of the East before absorbing four straight losses, but showed they still have life in a 38-35 loss to undefeated Green Bay a week ago.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: Dallas opended as a 3-point home favorite and was bet up to as high as -4 before coming down to -3.5. The total opened at 49 and has climbed slightly at some books.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-6, 5-6-1 ATS): New York bounced back from an embarrassing performance at New Orleans by scoring a season-high 35 points in nearly spoiling the Packers’ perfect season. Despite the current skid, the Giants can claim the division title by running the table. They have won a pair of shootouts in their last two meetings in Dallas, scoring a combined 74 points and getting six TD passes and two 300-yard games from QB Eli Manning. RB Ahmad Bradshaw ran for only 38 yards in his return to the lineup last week after missing four games. He rushed for 126 yards at Dallas last season.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS): Dallas made headlines for all the wrong reasons again last week, when coach Jason Garrett called a timeout to negate a game-winning field goal by Dan Bailey, who proceeded to miss his next attempt. The Cowboys had been sitting on a loss after squeezing out narrow wins over Washington and Miami. Rookie RB DeMarco Murray had his worst effort since taking over as the team's starter, rushing for 38 yards on 12 attempts. WR Miles Austin is expected to return to the lineup after missing four games with a hamstring injury. QB Tony Romo has 11 TD passes and two interceptions in his last five.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware, who is tied for the league lead in sacks (15.0), has seven sacks, four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in his last seven games against New York.

2. Giants WR Victor Cruz will be seeking his fourth straight 100-yard game. He has 41 receptions in his last six games.

3. Dallas is tied for the NFC lead with 35 sacks. The Giants are close behind with 33.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 34, Giants 31. Dallas holds off New York to improve to 6-1 at home.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/8 - 12/12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/8 - 12/12)

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