Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/1 - 12/3)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    NFL

    Monday, December 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    What bettors need to know: Chargers at Jaguars
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 39)

    THE STORY
    : The dismissal of Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio earlier this week was surprising only in its timing. Barring a stunning turnaround, there will be few eyebrows raised when Norv Turner is shown the door by San Diego Chargers management at the end of another underachieving season. Against that backdrop, the Jaguars will host the Chargers on Monday night in a matchup of teams that have a combined two wins – both by Jacksonville – since Oct. 9. San Diego has lost six consecutive games to see its playoff hopes all but evaporate.

    TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

    ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-7): After avoiding its customary slow start by winning four of its first five, San Diego hasn’t won since blowing a 21-10 halftime lead at the New York Jets. QB Philip Rivers didn’t throw an interception in last’s week’s 16-13 loss to Denver after getting picked off 10 times in his previous five games. Among the few positives last week was the performance of RB Ryan Mathews, who rushed for a career-high 137 yards.

    ABOUT THE JAGUARS (3-8): Newly appointed interim coach Mel Tucker will need a magic wand to fix an offense that ranks dead last in scoring (12.5 points per game). Tucker said he’s sticking with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, the league’s lowest-rated passer at 62.2. Jacksonville averages a wretched 131.3 yards passing. Expect to see a heavy does of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who is second in the league with 1,040 yards. He was a yard shy of his fourth 100-yard game in last week’s 20-13 loss to Houston.

    EXTRA POINTS:

    1. San Diego is mired in its longest losing streak since dropping nine straight spanning the 2002 and 2003 seasons.

    2. It’s been a turbulent week in Jacksonville. Along with Del Rio’s ouster, WRs coach Johnny Cox was fired and team owner Wayne Weaver announced he was selling the team.

    3. The Chargers have owned December since 2006, winning 20 of 22 games.

    LINE MOVEMENT:

    This line has been on both sides of the field goal spread, but San Diego -3 is the line most commonly being used. The over/under has moved between 38 and 40 with most sportsbooks now settling with 39.

    TRENDS:

    The Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 December games but 2-8-1 in their last 11 games as road favorites.

    The Jags are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.

    The over is 30-12-4 in the Chargers' last 46 road games while the under is 10-1 in the Jags' last 11 games overall.

    PREDICTION: Jaguars 19, Chargers 17. Despite the disparity in talent, swoon continues for beleaguered San Diego as Josh Scobee boots four field goals.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comment


    • #17
      NFL

      Monday, December 5


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Tale of the tape: San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (3, 39)

      Offense


      The Jaguars don’t have much going on with their offense outside of running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who has piled up 1246 yards of combined offense with five touchdowns. The numbers are pretty ugly as the Jags sit dead last in total offense, passing offense and points per game (12.5). Jason Hill is averaging 14.7 yards per catch and sits just one yard back of Mike Thomas for the team lead with just 367 receiving yards. Tight end Marcedes Lewis broke out with 700 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season, but has only 281 yards this season and no touchdowns.

      San Diego’s total offense ranks seventh in the league and its passing attack sits fifth, but Philip Rivers continues to struggle. His 80.8 quarterback rating is the worst in his career and his 17 interceptions are also a career worst. The team ranks 19th in red zone efficiency at 40.7 percent and has an AFC-high 24 giveaways. On the plus side, running back Ryan Mathews is coming off a 137-yard effort against Denver and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

      Edge: Chargers

      Defense


      The Chargers have a tough time stopping the run and just let the Broncos run wild on them last week with 208 yards on the ground. They usually allow 131.9 rushing yards per game. San Diego also has a lot of problems getting to opposing quarterbacks with only 19 sacks on the year and the club has only 14 takeaways. It all adds up to the Chargers giving up 25 points per game.

      Jacksonville’s defense is the only thing that’s keep this team in any of its games. The Jags sit fourth in total defense (292.5) and passing yards (183.4) and fifth in points allowed (18.2). They are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.4 yards per attempt and allowed just 215 yards of total offense to the Texans last week in a 20-13 loss.

      Edge: Jaguars

      Special teams


      The Chargers’ special teams were absolutely terrible last season and they aren’t much better this year. San Diego sits 32nd in punt return defense (15.6 yards) and 24th in both kick return defense (26.2 yards) and punt return average (8.3 yards). Kicker Nick Novak has missed four field goals over the past three weeks.

      Jacksonville’s special teams aren’t any better. The Jags average only 22.5 yards per kick return and 4.4 yards per punt return. There punt return coverage is pretty solid (8.3 yards per boot) but they give up 28.2 yards per kick return (third worst in the NFL). Josh Scobee is the lone bright side with just two missed field goals in 20 attempts this season with a long of 55 yards.

      Edge: Jaguars

      Word on the street


      "Today was a marathon. All we did was run. That's it … I don't know what he's trying to do, but it worked. Guys were crisp running routes and on the ball … I'm not talking about just straight running, but we were running from drill to drill, sprinting. He's bringing a lot of excitement." – Maurice Jones-Drew on interim coach Mel Tucker’s first practice.

      “The not getting touchdowns early in the year, we kept saying, ‘Well, we’ll get through that and we’ll end up turning those into touchdowns and we haven’t enough yet.” – Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers on the offense’s struggles.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Comment

      Working...
      X