NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/1 - 12/3)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, December 1 - Monday, December 5

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 13 opening line report

“An NFL team getting three touchdowns is ridiculous.”

So oddsmakers told me this week. It didn’t stop them from opening the Colts as 21-point underdogs at New England.

Giving the Colts -- only the 12th NFL team in 60 years to start 0-11 – three touchdowns is the only way books can stem the tide of Patriots money pouring in lately. New England has won three straight and covered each by an average of 17.5 points.

“New England is always a public team and now that they’re on a roll again, people just bet them hand over fist and don’t care what the pointspread is,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “Well, we’ll find out what they think of 21.”

Even three touchdowns won’t entice the public to bet the Colts, Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay told ***********.

“They’ve been betting against the Colts pretty much every week,” he said. “I don’t think the general public is really going to touch this game. I expect the sharps to be on the dog. It’s not going to be a heavily-bet game, more of a discussion game.”

So how unusual is a three-touchdown spread? Kornegay’s research indicates it’s happened 13 times in the last four decades. The underdog is 7-4-2 ATS. (See chart below).

New England laid 24, 22 and 20.5 in 2007 as Bill Belichick repeatedly ran up scores. If you include the 20.5 New England laid against the Jets, but failed to cover in a 20-10 win, those huge dogs are 8-4-2 ATS.

“I’d take that every Sunday,” Kornegay said.

As for Colts-Pats, he added, “I’m just glad they took it off Sunday night so I don’t have to watch it.”

Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello noted the Colts are just 2-9 ATS this season.

“Carolina beats them at home, Jacksonville beats them at home, Atlanta creams them at home,” he told ***********. “I don’t like hanging games like this because they’re no good for business. Lots of people are going to lay off, though some might tease it down seven points to 14.”

If the spread goes over 21, Avello expects the professionals to pounce.

So far, 66 percent of Covers Consensus bettors like the Pats to cover 21.

Twice a line has gone off at 24. The defending champion Steelers laid 24 against the expansion Bucs in 1976, and the undefeated Pats laid 24 to A.J. Feeley-led Philly in 2007. (Donovan McNabb was hurt.)

Only the 1987 49ers laid such a huge number on the road.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at New England (-21, 49.5)

Since the start of 2007, the Pats are 20-20-1 as home favorites. Colts-related trends seem irrelevant with No. 18 out of the lineup.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Houston (1, 38.5) Tennessee at Buffalo (-1, 43.5), San Diego at Jacksonville (1.5, 38.5)

Texans rookie T.J. Yates, who hails from suburban Atlanta, is expected to start against his hometown Falcons after backup Matt Leinart broke his collarbone in Sunday’s win at Jacksonville. While it’s not an ideal situation, remember that Yates started 44 games at North Carolina and completed 67 percent of his throws as a senior, with 19 TDs and nine INTs.

“He’s got the ability, he's got the arm, he's got the brains, all those things," coach Gary Kubiak said of the fifth-round pick in preseason. “Just needs reps.”

Yates almost beat out Leinart for the backup job.

He gets to play with an outstanding running game and the NFL’s No. 1 defense. Yates didn’t commit a turnover while going 8 of 15 for 70 yards and leading a field-goal drive.

“I don’t know of a team that’s faced as much adversity as we have,” tight end Owen Daniels told the Houston Chronicle. “We got a lot accomplished with T.J. Having a game like this under his belt and getting a week of practice with the starters will definitely help him and give the coaches more confidence in him.”

While Houston has won five straight, going 4-0-1 ATS, the Chargers have lost six in a row SU and ATS.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 54), Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (6.5, 52)

With Lions bad boy Ndamukong Suh expected to be suspended, Drew Brees gets a cleaner pocket. Matthew Stafford is putting points on the board for both teams; he’s thrown seven TDs and nine INTs the last three games.

The Packers are averaging 34.7 points. They had two extra days to prepare for a Giants team coming off a short week.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at Chicago (-9, 36.5), Baltimore at Cleveland (6.5, 37.5), St. Louis at San Francisco (-13, 37.5)

Keep an eye on the quarterback situation in K.C., where coach Todd Haley insists Tyler Palko remains the starter despite committing seven turnovers and leading the Chiefs to 12 points in two games. Kyle Orton, who arrived at the end of last week, will get some first-team reps.

[Udog]

Instant replay: NCAAF and NFL betting recap

Each week, we’ll recap all the betting information you need to know from the college and pro football action that went down over the weekend.

NCAAF betting recap

Barring some sort of huge upset, we’re going to have a rematch between LSU and Alabama in the BCS championship game – like it or not.

LSU plays Georgia this Saturday and will punch its ticket for the big game with a win, while Alabama’s regular season is done after it demolished 42-14 in the Iron Bowl. Sounds like it’s a done deal.

Meanwhile, favorites had a nice week in college pigskin, going 28-23-3 against the spread with visiting favorites going 11-6-1 against the number.

Andrew Luck led Stanford to a 28-14 win over Notre Dame as a 7-point favorite in what will likely be his last home game as a Cardinal and Michigan earned its first win over Ohio State in eight years, but couldn’t cover as an 8.5-point favorite.

NFL betting recap

Following Thanksgiving Day’s action, Sunday’s games always seem to lack a little luster. But at least Tim Tebow came to play. Again.

Tebow led the Broncos to a huge 16-13 overtime win over the listless San Diego Chargers. Nick Novak missed on a 53-yard field goal attempt, which opened the door for another Tebow drive that set up Matt Prater’s winning kick. The Broncos are now just a game behind Oakland for the division lead and have covered the number in four straight games.

On the other end of the spectrum, Indianapolis fell to 0-11 straight up and 2-9 against the spread with a 27-19 loss to Carolina.

Underdogs were 6-5-1 against the number ahead of Monday night’s matchup between the Giants and Saints with visiting underdogs going 5-2-1 against the spread. Three underdogs won outright while total plays finished split at six overs and six unders.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Philadelphia at Seattle
The Seahawks look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against a team with a losing record. Seattle is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1

Game 301-302: Philadelphia at Seattle (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.149; Seattle 129.644
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 347-348: Tennessee at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.324; Buffalo 127.469
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over

Game 349-350: Kansas City at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.773; Chicago 139.353
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 14 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7); Under

Game 351-352: Oakland at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 132.078; Miami 132.962
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 353-354: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.416; Pittsburgh 139.625
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.617; Cleveland 129.829
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 357-358: NY Jets at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.215; Washington 130.563
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 359-360: Atlanta at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.609; Houston 134.210
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Over

Game 361-362: Carolina at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.489; Tampa Bay 126.193
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Over

Game 363-364: Detroit at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.866; New Orleans 142.035
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7 1/2); Under

Game 365-366: Denver at Minnesota (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 130.568; Minnesota 127.701
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 33
Vegas Line: Pick; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver; Under

Game 367-368: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.581; San Francisco 137.975
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 16 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-13); Over

Game 369-370: Dallas at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.157; Arizona 129.326
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4 1/2); Over

Game 371-372: Green Bay at NY Giants (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.315; NY Giants 135.301
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+7 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Indianapolis at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.216; New England 139.410
Dunkel Line: New England by 19; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 20 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+20 1/2); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 375-376: San Diego at Jacksonville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 127.656; Jacksonville 131.394
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

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Thursday, December 1

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 7) - 12/1/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-106 ATS (+29.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 4

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TENNESSEE (6 - 5) at BUFFALO (5 - 6) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 7) at CHICAGO (7 - 4) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (7 - 4) at MIAMI (3 - 8) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 33-62 ATS (-35.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-58 ATS (-37.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
MIAMI is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (7 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 3) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 86-54 ATS (+26.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 43-21 ATS (+19.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 3) at CLEVELAND (4 - 7) - 12/4/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (6 - 5) at WASHINGTON (4 - 7) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (7 - 4) at HOUSTON (8 - 3) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (7 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 3) - 12/4/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (2 - 9) - 12/4/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 2) - 12/4/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (7 - 4) at ARIZONA (4 - 7) - 12/4/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 0) at NY GIANTS (6 - 5) - 12/4/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (8 - 3) - 12/4/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 142-106 ATS (+25.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 5

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 8) - 12/5/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN DIEGO is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, 12/1/2011

PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
PHILADELPHIA: 29-14 ATS vs. NFC West
SEATTLE: 17-7 Over as underdog


Sunday, 12/4/2011

TENNESSEE at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 20-8 Under Away off non-conf game
BUFFALO: 6-0 Under at home 2nd half of season

KANSAS CITY at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 12-4 Under as an underdog
CHICAGO: 26-13 ATS at home vs. AFC

OAKLAND at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 22-9 ATS Away off non-conf game
MIAMI: 10-1 Under this season

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 8-0 Over vs. conference
PITTSBURGH: 9-2 ATS off ATS loss

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND, 4:05 PM ET (TC)
BALTIMORE: 2-10 ATS Away off ATS win
CLEVELAND: 10-3 Under off road loss by 3 pts or less

NY JETS at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 13-3 Over in road games
WASHINGTON: 9-22 ATS at home after gaining 6+ YPP

ATLANTA at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 6-0 Under off SU win
HOUSTON: 7-1 Under as favorite

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 1-9 ATS as road underdog of 7 pts or less
TAMPA BAY: 5-14 ATS off home games

DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM ET (TC) | NBC
DETROIT: 23-10 ATS off double digit home loss
NEW ORLEANS: 14-29 ATS in December home games

DENVER at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 5-17 ATS vs. NFC North
MINNESOTA: 19-8 Under as home favorite of 3 pts or less

ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 2-9 ATS this season
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 ATS as favorite

DALLAS at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 3-13 ATS as favorite
ARIZONA: 2-8 ATS off SU dog win

GREEN BAY at NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 10-1 ATS off road win
NY GIANTS: 1-6 ATS at home if the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET (TC)
INDIANAPOLIS: 2-8 ATS as underdog
NEW ENGLAND: 20-8 Over in all games


Monday, 12/5/2011

SAN DIEGO at JACKSONVILLE, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
SAN DIEGO: 18-3 ATS vs. AFC South
JACKSONVILLE: 6-15 ATS off ATS loss

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Eagles (4-7) @ Seahawks (4-7)—Long road trip on short work week (Jets/49ers lost last two Thursdays doing same thing) for Philly team that actually plays better on road (3-2) than at Linc (1-5), but Iggles’ season pretty much died Sunday night. Philly is 3-6 as a favorite this year, 2-2 on road- they’re 5-2 in last seven visits here, winning last three 27-3/27-20/26-7 in series where road team won last six meetings. Seattle is 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games as underdog; they’re +5 in turnovers last three games, starting 10 of 38 drives in enemy territory, compared to just 2 of 35 for opponents. NFC East favorites are 6-11-1 in non-divisional games, 3-2-1 on road; NFC West home underdogs are 3-6-1. Three of last four Seahawk games stayed under total.

Jets (6-5) @ Redskins (4-7)—Washington snapped 6-game skid last week in Seattle, passing for 306 yards, giving them 582 passing yards in last two games, but they’ve turned ball over 2+ times in each of last eight games (-11), which is horrible. Jets are 5-1 this season when they have 2+ takeaways, but they only have one in last three games. Jets are 5-0 when they score more than 24 points, a figure Skins allowed just twice this season (Panthers/Dallas), 1-1 when they score exactly 24, 0-4 when they score less than 24. Redskins won eight of nine series games, with four of last six in series decided by 3 or less points; only Jet win was 3-0 here in ’93. Redskins/49ers are only two NFL teams that haven’t allowed a TD on offense/special teams this season. Four of Jets’ last five opponents currently have losing records, so no excuse for their not making playoffs.

Titans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6)—Buffalo is 4-0 when it scores 31+ points, 1-5 when it doesn’t, bad stat for team that plays December home games in western NY. Bills missed chance to pull upset last week in Swamp and get back over .500, now they’ve lost four games in row, allowing average of 33.5 ppg. Titans are 5-0 when they score 23+, 1-5 when they don’t; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread as a dog, 2-3 SU on road, winning at Cleveland/Carolina. Tennessee won last three series games by 2-1-24 points, with average total of 57; they won two of last three visits here, after losing previous six. Three of last four series games were won by 3 or less points. AFC East home favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 6-11-1, 4-7-1 on foreign soil. Titans’ last five games all stayed under total.

Chiefs (4-7) @ Bears (7-4)—First home start for Hanie finds struggling Chiefs (one TD/last 41 drives, 7 turnovers/last 20) visiting Windy City having lost last four games by average score of 24-6, but former Bear Orton looms as quick sub for struggling journeyman Palko under center, which would help Chiefs dramatically, if Orton knows playbook. Bears had 5-game win streak snapped last week, as Hanie threw three picks, only second time this year Bears lost turnover battle. Chicago is 3-1 as home favorite, winning last three at soldier Field, 39-10/37-13/31-20. Home side won last four series games, with average total in last six, 32.0; Chiefs lost four of five visits here, but only one of losses was by more than a FG. Chiefs’ last six games stayed under total; Chicago’s last four went over.

Raiders (7-4) @ Dolphins (3-8)—First-place Oakland won/covered last three games, scored 24+ points in last four, as Palmer settled in as starting QB. Raiders are 4-1-1 as an underdog this year, 3-0-1 on road- they’re 4-1 SU on road, with only loss by 3 at Buffalo (led 21-3 at half). Miami had 3-game win streak snapped last week at Dallas; they’ve covered last five games, winning last two at home by combined score of 55-17, only two games they’ve been favored in this year. Last three Fish losses were all by 3 or less points. Dolphins won eight of last ten series games, including 33-17 romp in Oakland LY; Raiders lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses by 3 or less points. AFC West road underdogs are 4-6-1 in non-divisional games. Under is 9-0-1 in last ten Miami games.

Bengals (7-4) @ Steelers (8-3)—Pitt (-3) won first meeting 24-17 in Queen City three weeks ago, in game where Bengals scored only a FG on three drives that started in Steeler territory. Cincy lost three of last four visits here, losing by 14-17-16 points; this series has been swept last four years. Bengals are 4-2 on road, 4-0-1 as road dogs, losing by 2 at Denver, 7 at Baltimore- they haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points. Steelers won six of last seven games, are 2-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 24-21-4-8 points, with loss to Ravens. Home teams are 1-4-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year, with five of six games going over total. Five of last seven Bengal games went over; three of last four Steeler games stayed under. Average total in Bengals’ last four visits here is 32.8.

Ravens (8-3) @ Browns (4-7)— Baltimore won last six series games, with five wins by 10+ points, last four by combined score of 94-30; Ravens are 8-4 in town they used to call home, winning last three 37-27/16-0/20-10, but Ravens are just 2-3 on road, beating Rams (37-7)/Steelers (23-20), losing to Titans/Jags/Seattle, not an impressive resume. Cleveland’s last three games were decided by total of 8 points; in their last six games, Browns started just one drive in enemy territory, while opponents started 8 on Browns’ side of 50. Week 2 at Indy is only time this year Browns had better field position in a game, which is fatal for team with sketchy offense. Four of last five Cleveland home games stayed under total. Having extra three days to prepare after Thanksgiving game may give Ray Lewis time enough to heal and play here.

Falcons (7-4) @ Texans (8-3)—This was supposed to be Schaub vs his old team in potential Super Bowl preview, but Schaub is hurt and Texans are down to rookie #3 QB Yates, who played well last week before Kubiak pulled reins in while protecting lead in second half, since he had no other QB had Yates gotten hurt. Houston won/covered its last five games; they’re 4-1 as home favorite, with only loss to Raiders the week Al Davis died. Atlanta won five of last six games, with only loss to Saints in OT- they’ve also won last three away games. 10 of last 36 Houston drives started in enemy territory. Teams have only met twice, with home side winning both games. AFC South underdogs are 6-11-1 vs spread, 2-4 at home; NFC South favorites are 9-7-2, 3-3 on foreign soil. Last seven Atlanta games and six of last eight Texan tilts stayed under the total.

Panthers (3-8) @ Buccaneers (4-7)— Third week in row on road for Carolina, which is 3-0 if it allows 20 or less points, 0-8 when it doesn‘t; they’re 1-3 as road dogs this year, but covered only previous outdoor road game, at Chicago. Road team is 8-5 in last 13 series games; Panthers won six of last eight visits here, but were swept by Bucs LY for first time since ’02. Carolina lost six of its last eight games overall. Bucs lost five games in row, turning ball over 11 times in last three games, when they lost field position by 15-14-9 yards; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Home side is 5-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year, with five of the six staying under total. Five of last six Tampa bay games stayed under; four of last five Carolina road games went over. Fun game to watch; bad game to invest in.

Broncos (6-5) @ Vikings (2-9)—Fourth road game in five weeks for Tebow-led Denver, which is 5-1 since changing QB’s despite being outscored 60-30 in first half of those games. Broncos ran ball for average of 225.5 yards/game last six weeks, which takes ton of heat off their defense- they’re 0-5 this year when allowing more than 17 points. Vikings are 0-3 since their bye, allowing 32 ppg; they’re 1-4 at home, with only win vs Arizona. Home side lost four of last six series games, with four of last five decided by 4 or less points. Four of five Minnesota home games went over the total; last three Denver games stayed under. Viking coach Frazier showed no aptitude for game management last week, forgoing FG with 5:00 left when Minnesota was down 10. This is Denver’s first game on artificial turf this season.

Packers (11-0) @ Giants (6-5)—Big Blue lost last three games since beating Patriots, giving up average of 31 ppg, now unbeaten Pack comes to town with three extra days to prepare after Turkey Day win in Detroit. Green Bay is 4-2 as road favorite this year, winning by 7-10-11-6-7-12 points. Giants were riddled for 577 yards by machine-like Saints Monday; opponents converted 14 of last 23 3rd down plays against Giants, and started eight of last 34 drives in Jersey territory. Giants are 3-2 at home, losing by 11 to Seattle, by 7 to Eagles. Home team lost five of last six series games, with Pack winning last three visits here, 37-3/34-25/35-13. NFC East underdogs are 4-7 in non-divisional games, 0-2 as home dogs. NFC North favorites are 11-8, 4-2 on road. Four of last five Packer games went over the total.

Rams (2-9) @ 49ers (9-2)—Niners won five of last six series games, winning last three played here, 35-16/35-0/23-20ot; they’ve had three extra days to prepare after Turkey Day loss in Baltimore, now have to guard against complacency since they’ve already clinched division. Playing for first round bye is their motivation now. Rams are 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 12-31-27-6 points, with win at equally-awful Cleveland. 49ers allowed average of 12.3 ppg in last seven games, giving up only 8 TDs on last 77 drives; they’re 5-0 as home favorites, winning at Candlestick by 16-45-10-7-16 points. Rams haven’t averaged six yards per pass attempt since Week 5 at Lambeau, when they were getting crushed right off bat. Under is 6-2 in last eight St Louis games, 5-1 in last six 49er games.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 3

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Seattle's last 22 games


Sunday, December 4

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CHICAGO
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. MINNESOTA
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Washington
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. BUFFALO
Tennessee is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. MIAMI
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Oakland is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Baltimore

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Francisco is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
Detroit is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Detroit


Monday, December 5

8:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 1

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Thursday Night Football: Eagles at Seahawks
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Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 43.5)

THE STORY: Some dream, eh? The self-labeled "Dream Team" – otherwise known as the Philadelphia Eagles – will travel to the Pacific Northwest to continue their nightmare of a season on Thursday against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Despite widely different expectations after last season's playoff appearances, both clubs enter Thursday's prime-time contest with identical – and disappointing – 4-7 marks. After dropping three of its last four games, Philadelphia's rail-thin postseason hopes rest on running the table and receiving a riverboat gambler's share of luck in the process. To add injury to insult, QB Michael Vick (ribs) and WR Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, hamstring) are likely to miss their respective third straight games on Thursday. For its part, Seattle saw its modest two-game winning streak come to an end with a 23-17 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

TV: NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Eagles opened as field-goal favorites and the line has remained stable. The total opened at 44 and has dropped to 43.5.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-7, 4-7 ATS): Vince Young is credited/blamed for bestowing the team with an unneeded nickname in the preseason and saddling it with even loftier expectations. Young started his second straight game in place of Vick and threw for 400 yards in Philadelphia's lopsided 38-20 loss to the New England Patriots. LeSean McCoy, who is the league's leading rusher with 1,050 yards, received just 10 carries last weekend. McCoy will likely see a larger workload against the Seahawks, who do boast the league's 11th-ranked rush defense despite surrendering 108 yards to Roy Helu on Sunday.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS): QB Tarvaris Jackson isn't lighting up the scoreboard, having averaged just 182.5 yards in his last four contests. During that stretch, Jackson has three touchdowns and six interceptions. He'll likely be without WR Sidney Rice, who suffered his second concussion of the season on Sunday. RB Marshawn Lynch rushed 24 times for 111 yards on Sunday, but Seattle was unable to grind out the clock and watched a 10-point lead evaporate in a loss to the Redskins.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Eagles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
* Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Disgruntled Eagles WR DeSean Jackson was benched in the fourth quarter on Sunday after dropping three passes. Despite his season-long troubles, the two-time Pro Bowler will start on Thursday.

2. Seattle is ranked second in the NFL in total penalties (105). The Seahawks committed just 101 penalties all of last season.

3. Prized offseason acquisition CB Nnamdi Asomugha (hyperextended knee) is also a game-time decision for the ailing Eagles.

PREDICTION: Eagles 20, Seahawks 17. A short week away from its rabid fan base may actually serve Philadelphia well. McCoy will do just enough against a Seattle club which ups its intensity when playing in the Emerald City.


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[Udog]

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 13

Once upon a time, a Colts-Patriots game was must-see TV. Now? Perhaps must-flee TV. Fortunately, there are a few other worthwhile matchups on the Week 13 NFL slate.

To the poolies cheat sheet we go:

Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle

Why Eagles cover: It’s getting harder and harder to make a case for this nightmare of a Dream Team. But short weeks seem to work pretty well for Andy Reid & Co., with Philly cashing in its last four Thursday outings.

Why Seahawks cover: Before falling straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home Sunday to Washington, Seattle was on a 6-1-1 ATS spree. Philly (4-10 ATS last 14) will again be without QB Michael Vick (ribs), and the Eagles have less and less to play for with each passing week.

Total (43): The over is 9-2 in Eagles’ last nine on road and 4-0 in the Seahawks’ last four at home.

Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)

Why Colts cover: Well, at 0-11 SU, they’re getting a ton of points. In this rivalry, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS last seven and 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.

Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady’s troops, who have cashed their last five against losing units, might be able to name their score. Indy has dropped seven straight pointspread decisions.

Total (48): Hard to peg without Manning in the equation. The under has hit four straight for Indy, but the over has cashed in 13 of the Colts’ last 16 on road. The Pats have the over on a 22-8 run overall and 11-4 at home.

Denver at Minnesota (-1)

Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow has helped the squad go 5-1 SU and ATS since taking over as the starter, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway. The Vikes are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams – believe it or not, the Tebows (er, Broncos) are now a winning team.

Why Vikings cover: If they have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) back in fold – which is iffy right now – it’ll certainly bolster their chances. Denver’s in ATS ruts of 7-22-1 against losing teams and 6-13 in December.

Total (37.5): Denver’s defense has held its last three foes to total of 36 points and all three games went way under the total. That said, the over is 5-1 in the Vikes’ last six at home dome.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Why Panthers cover: Strong late-season finishers at the sportsbook, going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 in December. The Bucs are lousy at home ATS at 7-20 in their last 27.

Why Buccaneers cover: Chalk has been the play in six of the last seven in this NFC South rivalry and Carolina’s 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.

Total (47.5): The under has hit in the Bucs’ last four NFC South tilts and is 6-2-2 in the Panthers’ last 10 division games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Why Bengals cover: They gave the Steelers a tough battle three weeks ago before succumbing 24-17 at home, playing most of the game without stud rookie wideout A.J. Green, who is now back and healthy. Cincy hasn’t lost ATS in its last seven roadies (6-0-1), and in this AFC North rivalry, the visitor is on a 14-5-1 ATS stretch.

Why Steelers cover: The defending AFC champs are 8-2 SU and ATS last 10 against Cincinnati, winning and cashing the last three in a row.

Total (42): Total has played over in the Steelers’ last five division affairs, seven of Bengals’ last eight overall, and five of Cincy’s last six on highway.

N.Y. Jets (-3) at Washington

Why Jets cover: If you believe in patterns, I suppose the Jets are due. They lost three in a row ATS in games 3-5, then won three in a row ATS in games 6-8, and now they’ve lost three in a row ATS again in games 9-11. New York is also 10-4 ATS in last 14 against losing teams.

Why Redskins cover: No positive ATS trends to speak off, but coming off a road win and cover that halted a six-game SU dive. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six on road and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in December.

Total (38): Lots of over trends for Gang Green, including 21-8 overall and 18-7-1 on road, but the ‘Skins are on several under surges, including 8-1 against winning teams.

Kansas City at Chicago (-7.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Tyler Palko likely won’t be in lineup, giving way to recently acquired QB Kyle Orton, so that should help. K.C. nearly notched upset of Pittsburgh last week in 13-9 home loss as hefty 10.5-point underdog. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when getting points.

Why Bears cover: They’re still minus QB Jay Cutler for at least a few more weeks, but Caleb Hanie had a serviceable second half in the loss to the Raiders last week and should show improvement with more reps, along with playing at home. As favorites, Lovie Smith’s troops are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 at Soldier Field.

Total (37.5): A low number here, with bookmakers apparently leaning to the Chiefs’ stream of under trends to outweigh the Bears’ plethora of over streaks. Total has gone low in Kansas City’s last six games. The over has hit in Chicago’s last four games overall and last four in Windy City.

Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)

Why Titans cover: Buffalo’s dropped four straight (1-3 ATS), while the Titans have covered three in a row and four of five. And hey, there’s been a Chris Johnson sighting somewhere other than on the side of a milk carton. The Tennessee RB went off for 190 yards on just 23 carries (8.1 ypc) in last week’s win over Tampa Bay.

Why Bills cover: Absolutely, completely desperate. A loss pretty much equals no playoffs, for team that started season 4-1 and was still 5-2 through seven games. Buffalo’s 9-3 ATS in its last dozen as a favorite of three or fewer points.

Total (43): The under is on streaks of 5-0 for Tennessee, 8-1 for Buffalo in December and 7-3 for Bills at home. That said, the over is 9-2-1 in the Bills’ last dozen overall, including three in a row.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Houston

Why Falcons cover: The Texans are down to third-string QB, rookie T.J. Yates, after season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. Atlanta can load up against Houston’s vaunted running game, knowing the Texans’ passing game should struggle. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog.

Why Texans cover: They’ve been overcoming key injuries all season, to stud RB Arian Foster early on, to star WR Andre Johnson for a lengthy midseason stretch, and to LB Mario Williams, who was lost for the season Oct. 9. Despite all those setbacks, they’re atop AFC at 8-3 SU and are tied for second in the conference at 7-3-1 ATS.

Total (38.5): Houston will hope to milk the clock with Foster-led running game (151.7 ypg, third in league) to take pressure off Yates. Atlanta hasn’t gone over in two months, with six straight unders.

Oakland at Miami (-3)

Why Raiders cover: The surprise leaders of the AFC West at 7-4 SU are even better at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS this year while winning and cashing the last three in a row. They’ve also cashed six straight on highway.

Why Dolphins cover: Don’t know where these guys were through much of the season, but they are on fire now, having cashed five in a row while winning three of the last four SU.

Total (43): If Miami is involved, often the under is, too. The Dolphins have the under on runs of 15-5-1 overall, 7-0 coming off SU loss, and 6-0-1 within AFC.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland

Why Ravens cover: They’ve been inconsistent against the spread, but they’ve been consistent in this AFC North rivalry, covering five of last six (6-0 SU). The Browns are on pointspread purges of 3-10-2 overall, 1-7-2 at home, and 1-5 in division play.

Why Browns cover: Cleveland’s certainly a few pegs below Baltimore, but the Ravens have bad habit of playing down to level of competition. They lost outright at Jacksonville and at Seattle, and narrowly beat Arizona while failing to cash as 12-point home chalk.

Total (38): The over has hit in Baltimore’s last four division games and five of its last six roadies. The total has played over in six of Cleveland’s last eight division contests.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-13)

Why Rams cover: Not easy to justify St. Louis covering. The Rams have almost no positive pointspread trends to speak of, but 13 points is a lot to get against a division rival and St. Louis cashed in both meetings with the Niners last year.

Why 49ers cover: Let’s put this in simplest possible terms: The Niners lead the league with a 9-1-1 ATS record, while Rams are tied for dead last at 2-9 ATS. That about covers it, don’t you think?

Total (37.5): St. Louis can’t score, averaging a meager 12.7 ppg which ranks 31st in league. So even though this is a rather low total, the under is certainly in play. Plus, the under has cashed in five of six for San Fran.

Green Bay (-7) at N.Y. Giants

Why Packers cover: That’s just what they do. The defending Super Bowl champs have won 17 consecutive games and have gone 13-4 against the line in that stretch. Aaron Rodgers & Co have been strong on road too, covering eight of last 10. The Giants have lost three in a row SU and are in a 1-5-1 ATS tailspin.

Why Giants cover: Desperate times call for desperate measures. If the Giants want to remain a playoff contender, they can’t even afford a loss. This amounts to a season-saving game for New York.

Total (52): Nobody puts up more points than the Pack, averaging 34.7 ppg, and the Giants – on a handful of over streaks – just allowed the Saints to hang a 49-spot on them in a blowout road loss. But with Green Bay as a visitor, the under has hit 12 of the last 17 overall, and nine of last 12 with the Packers laying points.

Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona

Why Cowboys cover: They haven’t cashed often lately (1-4 ATS last four), but they’re building up steam with four consecutive SU victories. Dallas will also be looking for some payback, having lost at home to Arizona on a last-second field goal last Christmas. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Redbirds.

Why Cardinals cover: The Cards have won and covered three of four, all behind backup QB John Skelton and they could have starter Kevin Kolb back this week from foot/toe injuries. The Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this rivalry, and the Cowboys are in a 3-12-1 ATS funk when laying points.

Total (45.5): The over has hit in four of the last five at home for the Cards. Dallas has the over on an 11-4 run as a chalk and 8-3 as a visitor.

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)

Why Lions cover: Detroit needs a win to stay in the NFC playoff chase and this is a lot of points even without DT Ndamukong Suh (two-game suspension). The Lions have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven roadies. The last time the Saints blew a team out, a 62-7 home win over Colts on Oct. 23, they came back a week later and lost outright to subpar St. Louis.

Why Saints cover: Well, that offense is pretty impressive, hanging 49 points on Giants last week to push its season average to 32.9 ppg, second only to Green Bay’s 34.7. Drew Brees & Co have cashed all five this season at home, with four of those wins by double digits.

Total (54): We’ve got the second and fourth best scoring teams in the league, with Detroit putting up 28.7 ppg, and the Lions without arguably their best defensive player. That looks like a recipe for the over. The Lions have the over on a 16-7-1 run overall, 18-7-1 on the highway, and 6-0-1 with Lions set as a road pup.

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville

Why Chargers cover: Too much talent for this team to be riding a six-game SU and ATS losing streak and eventually that talent should win out. This week could be the spot, as Jacksonville is out of sorts after firing coach Jack Del Rio on Tuesday. The Bolts are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 in December while the Jags are on ATS downslides of 4-9-1 overall and 2-8-1 as a pup. Plus, the Jags can’t score, averaging a league-worst 12.5 ppg behind rookie QB Blaine Gabbert.

Why Jaguars cover: Well, there’s that 0-6 SU and ATS burden San Diego is carrying. The Bolts are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road.

Total (38.5): We’re talking about Jacksonville here, so the under has got to be considered. The under has cashed in all but one of the Jags’ games this season, and they are on under runs of 6-0 on Monday night, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 at home.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NFL

Dallas at Arizona Open: +6.5 Move: +4.5

After a terrible October that saw the Cowboys drop three of four games outright, Dallas has rebounded to win four straight. However, the Cowboys are just 1-3 against the spread in that stretch and could be up against an Arizona club that may have its starting QB back in action.

"We've seen sharp money come in on the Cardinals when we opened the game," Fuhrman say. "Plenty of speculation about Kevin Kolb's status and if he can go, he's definitely worth at least two points to Cardinals backers. Dallas has had extra time to prepare from the Thanksgiving showcase, but this is a side that hasn't exactly thrived as road chalk."

Kansas City at Chicago Open: -8.5 Move: -7

It wasn't all bad for Chicago quarterback Caleb Hanie in his first career start, at least after he got out of a miserable first half. He had some problems reading coverage schemes, which can be expected, and made some nice throws and scampers once he settled in. Still, it doesn't look like that was nearly enough to sway bettors with early action coming in on the woeful Chiefs.

"Tough to figure out which offense in this game is more inept than the other," Fuhrman says. "There's been some appetite to take a Chiefs defense that looked very good on Sunday night against Pittsburgh, especially when they face Caleb Hanie, who still appears to be getting his feet wet. When points are going to be at a premium, there will always be an appetite to take the dog especially at over a touchdown."

Indianapolis at New England Open: -21 Move: -20

At 21 points, you almost have to take the underdog, right? Then again, it wouldn't surprise us to see this line to go back to three full touchdowns before the kickoff. The public loves the Pats just as much as it hates the Colts.

"This may be just a price grab because any bettor who believes in Dan Orlovsky or the Colts right now probably needs their head examined," Fuhrman says. Underdogs in this price range have been a profitable proposition historically but much like every Sunday, I know I'll be rooting for the hapless Colts to get the cover."


NCAAF

Southern Mississippi at Houston Open: -13.5 Move: -12

Everybody loves Case Keenum and Houston's big offense right now, which makes this move interesting.

"This number has actually come back down some despite the initial move," Fuhrman says. "I think Houston's ATS success this year has the public foaming at the mouth to bet them each and every week. Last week sharps everywhere lined up to fade the Cougars and didn't quite work out but doesn't mean they wont try their luck with USM again this Saturday."

LSU at Georgia Open: +10 Move: +14

It will pay to shop around with this game. As of Wednesday evening, this line was set anywhere between +12.5 and +14 so it looks like it's going to keep oddsmakers busy.

"From 11 to 13.5 it's been pure public love for the No. 1 team in the land but every time a book flickers 14 there's been immediate buyback," Fuhrman says. "I think any sharp contingent looking to fade the Tigers will wait for the best number while the betting public has no reason to abandon their cash cow in the SEC championship game."

[Udog]

NFL

Week 13

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NFL Total Bias: Week 13's best over/under bets
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Nobody ever said making it in New York was easy.

Maybe no one knew that better than Mr. October, who was once quoted as saying “It's a fickle town, a tough town. They getcha, boy. They don't let you escape with minor scratches and bruises. They put scars on you here.”

And Reggie Jackson was a freakin’ baseball player, so I guess it’s not surprising the ferocity has stretched past the Big Apple and spread all the way to upstate New York in the football world.

Heading into their Week 7 byes, the Bills and Giants were rolling along at 4-2, while the Jets downed San Diego in Week 7 to finally erase their terrible start, pulling above .500 heading into their week off. So things were looking up across the board.

But everything seemed to change in a New York minute after that. Now, all three teams have their backs against the wall. And they’re hearing all about it from their supporters.

The Jets likely epitomize the stereotypical New York team best. They have Rex Ryan, a loudmouth coach who spent his offseason getting a rotten ink job and telling everybody how great his team was.

They have a prettyboy quarterback who loves the nightlife and is in a love-hate relationship with the fan base. He still has the boos ringing in his ears from last week – and that was in a home win over the Bills.

The Giants? Nobody knows what the Giants are all about. Eli Manning is the aw-shucks southerner trying to make it in the big city and is doing his damndest to keep this team from falling apart at the seams after a 6-2 start.

The only thing certain about this team is that its coaching is incompetent and it’s about time to quit riding the coattails of its Super Bowl win. Oh, and the guarantees. The Giants are all about the guarantees. On Tuesday, Antrel Rolle more or less guaranteed a playoff berth for the second consecutive season and we all know how that turned out last year.

They only face the Packers this week, so no big deal, right?

Not to be outdone by the two metro clubs, Stevie Johnson went and got all gangsta with his touchdown celebration in Week 12, mocking Plaxico Burress’ self-shooting that cost the Jets receiver 22 months in the clink. That little stunt earned Johnson a $10,000 donation to the league.

It was a stupid joke, but one that clearly represents the Bills. After they shocked everybody by jumping out to a 4-1 start, they’ve reverted back to their amateur-hour ways, looking ready to call it a year as standout running back Fred Jackson sits on the sidelines. Without him, this offense doesn’t work.

Where does this leave us? For my money, the Jets are the only team with a shot at the playoffs in the bunch – and that’s a major stretch.

So despite the great starts, the big contracts, and all the publicity swirling around these teams, I guess that’s why they say that if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere.

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (3, 38)

If the Jets need a model for how their offense is supposed to work, they might want to take some notes this weekend. Somehow, behind the likes of Rex Grossman, Roy Helu and Fred Davis, the Redskins have actually moved the chains a bit over the past two weeks.

That said, for all of you Sanchez haters out there, you do realize he threw four touchdowns last week, right? Lay off the guy a bit. There’s no way he should ever be throwing 35 times in a game.

Pick: Over


Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (7, 52)

I never thought I’d say this, but I think I feel bad for Eli. Do you realize he’s thrown for just 117 fewer yards than that Aaron Rodgers guy this season? Another 20-touchdown season already in the books too.

The Packers are going to have a good time putting the G-Men to bed, but Manning’s good for a couple of scores.

Pick: Over


Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 43.5)

The Bills have averaged just 13 points and 87 rushing yards per game over their last three, while Tennessee’s running game is finally hitting its stride. The Titans will pound the rock all day to control the clock.

It’s still early, but it looks like some weather issues could factor in with this one as well.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-3
Season record to date: 19-18


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Week 13 line moves

The NFL opens its December slate this Sunday, and while the weather may be cold, the action at the sportsbook has never been hotter.

We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest lines moves on the Week 14 board:

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans – Open: -2.5, Move: +1

With the Texans putting the ball in the hands of rookie QB T.J. Yates, the line has flipped on the home side. The total has also made significant moves, dropping from 40 to as low as 37.5.

“People expect them to lean on the run and the No. 1 defense and limp to the finish line,” says Rood. “Parlays, straight bets – everything is on the under.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears – Open: -9, Move -7

With backups Tyler Palko and Caleb Hanie sharing the spotlight, bettors are siding with the Chiefs, which is a surprise to Rood, who says Chicago is the better all-around team in Week 14.

“Games like this, you tend to bet the team with the best unit. In this case, it’s Chicago’s defense,” he says. “Hanie didn’t look too bad in a tough road spot against the Raiders. Now he’s home in more comfortable confines and has had a week to practice with the first team.”

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3, Move: +1

Rood expects this line to do some serious dancing Sunday morning when the status of Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is revealed. Sharp money has been on Minnesota, with parlays leaning towards the Broncos.

“For another week, people really aren’t buying into the Denver Tebows,” laughs Rood. “If Peterson comes back, this line could move back to 3 or maybe to even 4.”

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals – Open: +6, Move: +4.5

Some offshore books opened Arizona at +6 and took instant action on the home side. Rood has stayed put at 4.5 and has, as of Saturday afternoon, taken little money on this game.

“Arizona is a weird, weird team,” he says. “Sometimes, they show flashes of the team from two years ago. Then, all of a sudden, something happens and they fall apart. A switch goes on and off and it makes them a tough team to bet on.”

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints – Open: -6.5, Move: -9

With the suspension of Ndamukong Suh, Saints backers are breathing easier and betting the home side in the Sunday Nighter. Rood says it’s been all New Orleans action and expects more to come in Sunday. With this game being the final one on the schedule, he could see it going to -10 or beyond.

“The Lions are going to be housed,” laughs Rood. “Too many distractions.”

[Udog]

NFL

Week 13

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NFL betting weather report: Week 13
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Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets in Week 13 of the season:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1, 43)

Cloudy skies will eventually give way to showers late into this game. There is a 31 percent chance of rain and winds reaching speeds of up to 15 mph, blowing SSW across the field in Orchard Park. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 50s.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (-7, 37)

There is a 37 percent chance of showers, most likely ending early into this game. Winds will blow WSW at speeds of up to 18 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3, 43)

Rain is in the forecast for South Beach, with a 12 percent chance of showers Sunday. Winds, blowing east, will reach speeds of up to 16 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 43)

There’s a 22 percent chance of showers for Heinz Field, with rain likely to begin in the second half. Temperatures will fall into the low 50s.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+6.5, 38)

The forecast in Ohio is calling for a 71 percent chance of rain and winds, blowing SSW, at speeds of up to 16 mph. Temperatures will drop into the high 40s.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 13

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Sunday Night Football: Lions at Saints
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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53.5)

THE STORY: The Detroit Lions are not expected to have Ndamukong Suh kicking anyone around, and that will leave a huge void in their defense when they visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. With the 2010 Defensive Rookie of the Year likely to be suspended for at least one game, the Lions will be hard-pressed to keep Drew Brees and Co. from stomping on them. New Orleans is undefeated at home (5-0) and has won three straight games overall to maintain a one-game edge over Atlanta in the NFC South. Detroit has dropped four of season after opening the season with five consecutive victories.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: New Orleans opened as a 9-point home favorite and has remained around that number. The total opened at 53.5 and was bet up to 54.5 before coming back down around its opening.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS): Detroit stayed close for a half before getting blown out in the third quarter by Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Suh’s ejection, for stomping on the arm of a Packer lineman, helped turn the game into a rout. RB Kevin Smith may be unavailable due to a high ankle sprain, and starting CB Chris Houston and S Louis Delmas are expected to sit out. That puts more pressure on the Matt Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson connection to produce points and keep pace with the Saints.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (8-3, 7-4 ATS): Only Green Bay has scored more points than New Orleans, which is coming off a 49-24 thrashing of the New York Giants. Brees threw four scoring passes and ran for another in the romp. He has at least 20 completions in an NFL-record 31 straight games and has tossed a TD pass in 38 consecutive games – second only to Johnny Unitas (47). Jimmy Graham caught two TD passes and leads NFL tight ends in receptions (67) and yards (957).

TRENDS:

* Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 13.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as home favorites.
* Over is 18-7-1 in Lions' last 26 road games.
* Over is 9-4 in Saints' last 13 games in Week 13.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees threw a career-high six TD passes in a 45-27 win over the Lions in 2009. New Orleans has outscored Detroit 87-34 in the last two meetings.

2. Lions WR Johnson has a league-high 12 TD receptions. He’s only the third receiver (Lance Alworth, Jerry Rice) to reach that mark in three of their first five seasons.

3. One of the most memorable plays in NFL history occurred in a matchup between Detroit and New Orleans, when Tom Dempsey kicked a record 63-yard field goal in 1970 to give the Saints a 19-17 win.

PREDICTION: Saints 41, Lions 27. New Orleans much better suited to win a track meet, particularly with Suh on the sidelines.


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