NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/1 - 12/3)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 3

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NCAAF Championship Saturday: What bettors need to know
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Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars (-14, 72)

THE STORY: Led by record-setting quarterback Case Keenum, No. 6 Houston can become the first Conference USA team to earn a BCS bowl berth if it can beat No. 23 Southern Miss in the conference championship game. The West Division champion Cougars are making their third C-USA title game appearance, having won at home in 2006 and lost at East Carolina in 2009. The East Division champion Golden Eagles are seeking their first conference title since 2003. Southern Miss leads the all-time series 8-5, including a 59-41 home win last season.

TV: ABC

LINE: Houston opened at -13 and has been bet up to a two-touchdown favorite. The total has climbed from 71.5 to 72.

ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (10-2, 6-2 C-USA, 7-4-1 ATS): The Golden Eagles won 10 games for the first time in 23 years and just the third time in school history. Senior QB Austin Davis needs 77 yards to break his own school record for single-season passing. He set the current mark of 3,128 as a freshman. Running back Jamal Woodyard is averaging 6.4 yards a carry. Southern Miss ranks second in the conference in scoring (36.9) and points allowed (20.5). If the game is close, kicker Danny Hrappman could make the difference; he’s made 11 of his last 12 field goals.

ABOUT HOUSTON (12-0, 8-0 C-USA, 10-2 ATS): The Cougars have been unstoppable at home, outscoring opponents 323-106. For the season, Houston is averaging 613 total yards and 52.7 points. Keenum is the NCAA career leader in every major passing category and needs 274 passing yards to become the first college player with three 5,000-yard seasons. Junior college transfer D.J. Hayden has sparked Houston’s opportunistic defense, which gives up 20.9 points per game. The corner has two INTs, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Southern Miss has returned seven interceptions for touchdowns, tying a school record.

2. Houston has 100 plays of 20-plus yards, most in the nation.

3. The Cougars boast their their highest ranking since Nov. 3, 1990, when they were ranked No. 3.

PREDICTION: Houston 48, Southern Miss 31 – The Cougars delight their sellout crowd with another offensive show.



LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (+13.5, 45.5)

THE STORY: A possible 11th Southeastern Conference title is only the appetizer for top-ranked LSU. The undefeated Tigers need only a win over No. 14 Georgia at the Georgia Dome to punch their ticket to the BCS National Championship Game. LSU brings in a 13-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the nation. Seven of LSU's wins this season have come against Top-25 teams. The Tigers lead the all-time series 15-12-1. LSU won the most recent meeting, 20-13 in Athens in 2009, but Georgia won the most recent meeting in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs claimed their 12th SEC crown with a 34-14 win over LSU in 2005.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE: LSU opened at -11 and has been bet up to -13.5. The total has dipped from 46 to 45.5.

ABOUT LSU (12-0, 8-0 SEC, 9-3 ATS): The Tigers are 12-0 for the first time in school history and they've been nothing short of dominant in getting there. They pummeled then-No. 3 Arkansas 41-17 last week to clinch their fifth trip to the SEC title game since 2001. LSU is 3-1 in the SEC championship game, including a 34-13 win over Georgia in 2003 and the loss to the Bulldogs in 2005. The quarterback duo of Jordan Jefferson (654 pass yards, 5 TDs, 253 rush yards, 3 TDs) and Jarrett Lee (1,306 pass yards, 14 TDs) leads the SEC's top scoring offense at 38.2 points per game.

ABOUT GEORGIA (10-2, 7-1 SEC, 8-4 ATS): If any team has been nearly as impressive as LSU, it has been Georgia over the past 11 weeks. The Bulldogs have won 10 straight since losing their first two -- including a season-opening loss to Boise State at the Georgia Dome. Sophomore QB Aaron Murray has proven adept at guiding the offense, tossing a school-record 32 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Over the past four games, Murray has 14 touchdowns and two picks. The Bulldogs hope Murray will have help from leading rusher Isaiah Crowell (832 rush yards, 5 TDs), who is listed as probable after missing last week's game with an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU's defense ranks in the top six in the nation in four major categories -- total defense (second at 248.42), scoring defense (second at 10.58), rush defense (fourth at 86.08) and pass defense (sixth at 162.33).

2. Georgia's defense has been nearly as dominant, ranking fifth in the nation in total defense (271.1), sixth in rush defense (94.8) and 10th in scoring defense (17.8).

3. LSU defensive backs have accounted for six touchdowns this year, which is equal to the number of passing touchdowns the Tigers have allowed.

PREDICTION: LSU 34, Georgia 16 -- The Tigers have passed tougher tests already; the 'Dogs won't derail them from the title game.



Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers (+6.5, 53.5)

THE STORY: The last time Virginia Tech saw Clemson, the Tigers were strolling out of Blacksburg with a 23-3 victory in the Hokies’ ACC opener. But there is no question who the hotter team is entering Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Virginia Tech has not lost since that Oct. 1 defeat to Clemson, winning seven consecutive games by an average of 13.7 points to rise to No. 3 in the nation. The Hokies have won the ACC three of the past four seasons (2007, 2008, 2010).

Clemson is moving in the opposite direction. Following eight consecutive victories to open the season, the 21st ranked Tigers have dropped three of the past four, including a two-touchdown loss at Georgia Tech and 20-plus point defeats to North Carolina State and South Carolina. The Clemson offense has scored just 74 points in its past four games, after averaging 40.6 points during its 8-0 start.

Clemson leads the series 18-12-1 - the Oct. 1 victory broke Virginia Tech’s five-game winning streak in the series.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.

LINE: Virginia Tech opened as high as -7.5 and has been bet down to as low as -6.5. The total has climbed from 52.5 to 53.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-1, 7-1 ACC, 4-8 ATS): For quarterback Logan Thomas, the loss to Clemson marked a turning point. After passing for just 125 yards against the Tigers, Thomas has thrown 14 of his 18 touchdown passes during the Hokies’ seven-game win streak, and has added nine rushing touchdowns in that span. Running back David Wilson has 10 100-yard rushing games and 1,595 rushing yards on the year. The Hokies have found their stride on defense as well, ranking seventh in the nation in average points allowed (15.5).

ABOUT CLEMSON (9-3, 6-2 ACC, 7-5 ATS): For the first two months of the season, quarterback Tajh Boyd was one of the hottest signal-callers in the nation. But the sophomore has struggled mightily the past month. Boyd completed just 11-of-29 passes for 83 yards against South Carolina, and has thrown seven of his 10 interceptions in the past four games. Freshman receiver Sammy Watkins set ACC freshmen records for receptions (72), yards receiving (1,073) and touchdowns (10). The Clemson defense gave up a season-low in points against the Hokies, but has allowed 30 points or more six times.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Hokies' last five neutral site games as favorites.
* Under is 12-3 in Tigers' last 15 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Hokies make their fifth appearance in the championship game, most by any ACC school.

2. Clemson has appeared in just one ACC title game, losing to Georgia Tech in 2009.

3. The future is bright for both teams. Clemson tied Indiana for most freshmen who played this season (29), while Virginia Tech tied for sixth (25).

PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 16 – Everything is rolling for the Hokies right now. The offensive 1-2 punch of Thomas and Wilson, coupled with the Hokies’ defense, gives Virginia Tech more than enough to win another ACC title.



Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 54.5)

THE STORY: Wisconsin’s last two season’s have been interrupted by Kirk Cousins and Michigan State. The Badgers will be looking for some revenge when they face the Spartans in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Wisconsin was up to No. 4 in the country when it visited Michigan State on Oct. 22 but left with its national championship dreams dashed on a Hail Mary by Cousins as time expired. The 12th-ranked Badgers lost again the next week but recovered to win the Leaders Division by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker with Penn State. The ninth-ranked Spartans edged rival Michigan for the Legends Division, setting up a rematch in the championship game with a BCS Bowl berth on the line.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Wisconsin opened at -9 and has remained steady at most books. The total opened at 54.5 and has climbed to 55 at some markets.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten, 8-4 ATS): Cousins and his fellow seniors are the winningest class in school history and have helped bring the program back among the nation’s elite under coach Mark Dantonio. The signature moment of Cousins’ career may have come in the Oct. 22 meeting with the Badgers, when he heaved a 44-yard touchdown pass to Keith Nichol as time expired. While Cousins and wide receiver B.J. Cunningham get most of the attention, Michigan State relies heavily on its defense, which is holding opponents to an average of 15.4 points.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (10-2, 6-2, 7-4-1 ATS): The Badgers have lost the last two regular season meetings with Michigan State, dooming their national championship prospects in both seasons. But just like 2010, Wisconsin is coming to the finish line strong. Running back Montee Ball leads the nation in touchdowns and teams with quarterback Russell Wilson to help the Badgers to an average of 44.8 points - fourth best in the country. Wisconsin has won four straight and is coming off a 45-7 shellacking of Penn State in a must-win game last Saturday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ball was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and ranks second in NCAA history with 34 touchdowns this season. Barry Sanders holds the record with 39 in 1988.

2. Michigan State has won at least 10 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.

3. The road team has won each of the last seven meetings between the schools. Of course, Saturday’s championship game is at a neutral field.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 28 - The Badgers will get the early lead this time and use Ball to bleed the clock and avoid a comeback.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Saturday's best games

Home side won five of last six UConn-Cincinnati games, with Huskies losing last four visits here, by 2-24-11-17 points; underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games, with average total in last 3, 71.0. Bearcats stumbled down stretch after QB Collaros was lost for season with leg injury- they covered just one of last five tries as a favorite. UConn is 0-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 3-27-15 points. Last four Cincinnati games stayed under total; six of last seven UConn games went over. Big East single digit home favorites are 3-6 vs spread. Bearcats win share of Big East title if they win here.

Pittsburgh won last six games vs Syracuse (4-2 vs spread), with five wins by 10+ points; favorites covered six of last eight series games. Orange lost last four visits to Heinz Field by 27-3-17-20 points- favorites covered four of their last five visits here. Panthers are just 3-3 SU at home this year vs I-A teams, 1-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 19-27-15 points. Five of last six Pitt games stayed under total; six of last nine Orange games went over. Syracuse is 1-3 on road (0-4 vs spread) this year, losing away games by 21 at USC, 17 at Louisville, 7 at UConn. Big East home favorites of 3+ points are 2-6 vs spread. Pitt needs win to be bowl eligible.

Kansas State’s only two losses were to the Oklahoma schools, when they gave up 58-52 points; amazing that they’re 9-2 despite favored in only 3 of 11 games (2-0 as HF, third game vs I-AA team). Wildcats won 11 of last 14 vs Iowa State, taking last three by 7-1-8 points; only one of their last seven series wins was by more than 8 points. Cyclones lost five of last six visits to Little Apple, with four of five losses by 21+ points- favorites covered four of their last five visits here. Iowa State is 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 23-35-20 points. Big X home favorites of 12 or less points are 3-4 vs spread. Four of last five Cyclone games stayed under total; seven of last nine K-State games went over.

Favorites covered six of last seven Wyoming-Colorado State games, which is a fierce rivalry; Cowboys whupped State 44-0 LY, and shut Rams out last two times they were series favorite, but they’ve also but lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 23-24 and three by 8 points each. 7-4 Wyoming is having nice year; they’re 4-1 as road underdog this year, 3-2 SU on road, 1-1 when favored, but since ’07, they’re 0-4 as road favorite. 3-8 Rams lost last seven games; they’re 3-4 as underdog this year, 1-1 at home. Under is 5-0-1 in Wyoming’s last six games; three of State’s four home games went over total. Chances are Colorado State will fire Fairchild after this game.

Hard to figure how Oklahoma State will react after getting upset at Iowa State in last game 15 days ago, costing them shot at national title; Cowboys are 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning in Stillwater by 27-23-42-35-7 points. Oklahoma won its last eight games vs Oklahoma State by average score of 43-22; favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games. Sooners won last four visits here, with average total of 80.3; they scored 42+ points in four of last six series games. Oklahoma allowed 41-45 points in its two losses (Texas Tech/@ Baylor); this is first time they’ve been underdog this season. Four of State’s five home games went over the total.

Baylor upset Texas 30-22 LY, ending 12+-game series losing streak; they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games, all as dogs, but Texas won last six visits to Waco, all by 21+ points. Even in their loss LY, Longhorns outgained Baylor by 100 yards. 8-3 Bears allowed 36-55-59 points in their three losses, which all came on road; they’re 5-0 at home, 3-0 as home favorites, with wins by 2-25-23-3-7 points in Waco, where they average 48.4 ppg vs I-A foes. Texas upset rival Aggies last week to clinch winning record, but they’re just 3-4 SU in last seven games. Home teams are 5-1 vs spread this year in Big 12 games where spread is 5 or less points. Nine of ten Baylor games went over total; five of last six Texas games stayed under.

BYU won seven of last eight games, with only loss to TCU; they scored 38+ points in four of last five games, with last three wins by 53-35-35 points. Cougars are 2-2 on road, losing by 1 at Texas, 10 at TCU, beating Ole Miss by point, winning by 10 at Oregon State. Hawaii needs win to play in bowl game; they’ve lost three of last four games, losing last two at home by total of 7 points to pair of WAC schools. Warriors are 2-1 as an underdog this year; they’re 6-4 as home dog under McMackin. Cougars have a BYU branch school on islands, so they’ll have support for their first visit to Paradise in 10 years. Four of last five BYU games, seven of last ten Hawaii tilts went over the total.

Underdogs are 22-4 vs spread in WAC games this year, 8-1 at home. Utah State is headed to just 6th bowl ever and first since 1997; the last 10 years, having won last four games, all by 7 or less points- they’re 2-3 SU on road, with underdogs covering all five games. USU is 2-7 vs spread as a road favorite, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 series games, with underdogs 9-4 vs spread in those games. USU (both sides in this game are Aggies) won four of last visits to Las Cruces, where underdogs covered five of last six series meetings- only one of USU’s last four wins here was by more than 7 points. NM State lost five of last six games, last two by combined score of 86-7. Over is 7-2 in NM State’s last nine games, 3-1-1 in Utah State’s road games.

4-8 Fresno State’s last three games were all decided by 3 points; Bulldogs are dangerous dogs, as always, covering four of last five when getting points (3-0 as road dog this year), but they’ve allowed 36+ points in seven of 12 games, which especially hurt them at home, where they used to be a formidable foe. San Diego State won three of last four games to clinch bowl bid; they’re 2-4 as favorite this year, 1-2 at home- their home wins (2-3 SU) are by 18 over Washington State, 28 over New Mexico. WAC non-conference road underdogs are 12-7 vs spread this season, 6-1 if spread is less than 20 points; Mountain West non-conference home favorites of less than 20 points are 1-5. Under is 5-2-1 in Aztecs’ last eight games; 4-8 in Fresno games.

Houston is playing for Conference USA’s first-ever BCS bowl bid, meaning Southern Miss figures to pocket extra quarter million bucks or so if they lose this game, not that players/coaches care (AD and accountants might). Cougars are 11-0, covering last seven games; they’re 5-0 as home favorite, winning by 4-53-35-39-30 points. Southern Miss is 10-2 this year, somehow losing at Marshall/UAB; they’re 2-0 as an underdog this year. Pair of senior QB’s in C-USA title game could mean high scoring game; Southern Miss Home side won last four Southern Miss-Houston games over last six years, with Golden Eagles losing last two visits here, 50-43/34-21; average total in those four games was 76.3. Three of last four Houston games stayed under total, since all four were 75+; three of USM’s last four games went over. C-USA home favorites are 16-12 vs spread, 11-9 if they’re laying double digits. Undefeated teams are 8-10 vs spread in conference title games like this one.

Double digit favorites are 21-8 vs spread in SEC games this season. Undefeated teams are 8-10 vs spread in conference title games like this one. LSU hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since September, when they beat Oregon 40-27 on neutral field and won 47-21 at West Virginia; Tigers are 7-2 vs spread when favored this year- they won their three games since the Alabama showdown by 42-9/52-3/41-17 scores. Georgia won its last ten games since opening losses to Boise State/South Carolina had Richt getting fired on call-in shows. Favorites are 9-2 vs spread in Georgia games this year; their two losses were only games they were underdog this year. Road underdogs won last two Georgia-LSU games, last of which was in ’09. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven SEC title games. Four of last five LSU games went over total, as did six of last eight SEC title games.

Clemson (+7.5) was on roll when it won 23-3 at Blacksburg back on October 1, holding Hokies to 258 total yards and shutting them out in second half, but Tigers faded late in season, losing three of last four games while scoring 17-13-13 points in those losses, all of which were on road and by 14+ points. Virginia Tech is 7-0 since losing to Tigers, with four wins by 11+ points and three by 4 or less; they allowed 12.2 ppg in six road games this year, winning all six (3-3 vs spread). Hokies won three of last four ACC title games, last three of which were covered by favorite; Clemson (+1) lost 39-34 to Ga Tech in its lone title game appearance two years ago. ACC conference favorites of 7+ points are 14-18 vs spread this year. Under is 6-2 in last eight Clemson games, 3-1 in last four Tech tilts.

Michigan State (+7.5) beat then-unbeaten Wisconsin 37-31 on last-second Hail Mary October 22, despite allowing Badgers 443 yards in game State led 23-14 at half; Spartans were held to 13-3 points in their two losses (31-13 @ Notre Dame/24-3 @ Nebraska)- they’re 2-2 as underdogs this year. Badgers allowed 37-33 points in their two losses, but scored 44 ppg in winning last four games, with 11 points closest of the four; Wisconsin is 6-4-1 as favorite this year, but 1-3-1 away from Madison, where they won by 42-29-22 points, but lost to Spartans and Ohio State (33-29). Both sides have senior QB’s, usually a sign for lot of offense. Seven of last nine Wisconsin games, three of last four MSU games went over the total; Big Dozen favorites of 9+ points are 13-14 vs spread this season.

[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 14 line moves

It’s been a busy week for books with so many high-profile games on the Week 14 schedule. We talk to Jay Kornegay, executive director of race & sports at the Las Vegas Hilton, about some of the biggest line moves heading into Saturday:

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers – Open: -12.5, Move: -10

According to Kornegay, Syracuse has been a favorite of sharp bettors this season, and that trend continues in Week 14. He also notes that the drop could have something to do with the absence of Pitt RB Ray Graham, who is out for the season with a knee injury suffered in Week 9.

“It’s no surprise that the early action is on Syracuse,” says Kornegay. “They’ve been popular with the sharps – not always winning for them – but popular.”

Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: -12.5, Move: -10

Wise action on the Cyclones has moved this spread to the key number. Kornegay doesn’t see any rhyme or reason for the move, chalking this up to sharps manipulating the line based on their opinion.

“Some group or some individual out there thinks there is value in the Cyclones,” he says. “The public hasn’t gotten a hold of this yet, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move again.”

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs – Open: -40.5, Move: -38.5

Word on the street is that No. 1 QB Sean Riley is ready to return for the Rebels, prompting locals to jump on UNLV. Kornegay also believes this is a down spot for the Horned Frogs, finishing their MWC tenure against lowly UNLV before jumping to the Big 12 next season.

“(Texas Christian) has already topped the Mountain West and all the talk is about moving to the Big 12 – not playing UNLV in the final game of the season,” Kornegay says. “It’s a poor spot for TCU. Not that they couldn’t cover the 40 points just going through the motions.”

LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs – Open: +11, Move: +14

Kornegay is really surprised this spread for the SEC Championship is moving upwards. He thinks this is a good spot for Georgia to step up and take on the top team with nothing to lose.

“Georgia may not have the horses, but I think this is a good spot for them,” he says. “LSU is probably going to get into the championship game anyway, so the Bulldogs might as well let it all hang out.”

Oklahoma Sooner at Oklahoma State Cowboys – Open: 74, Move 71.5

The total for Bedlam is dropping, with money on the under. While Kornegay sees why sharps would side below the total – rivals knowing each other so well – he expects the number to come back up once the public has its say for this 8 p.m. ET start.

“They’ve been betting Oklahoma State and the over all season - so why stop now?” says Kornegay.