The Bum's NFL Thanksgiving Week Best Bets 11/24-11/28 !

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NFL | MIAMI at DALLAS
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season
49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
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NFL | MIAMI at DALLAS
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (DALLAS) in non-conference games, off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less
40-7 since 1997. ( 85.1% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | MIAMI at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

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Tebow And Broncos On Trail At San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have won and covered their last four meetings with Denver.
Pick your sidebar story. There are plenty of them from which to choose when Denver pays a visit to San Diego on Sunday in AFC West action.

What might be most surprising about this matchup is that the Broncos (5-5 straight up and against the spread) currently sit a game ahead of the Chargers (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) in the division table. Something not many would have believed a few weeks ago, much less when San Diego won the season’s first meeting by a 29-24 count back on October 9.

Few would also believe that early October success at Sports Authority Field at Mile High would be the Bolts’ last win, either straight up or against the spread, until at least after Thanksgiving.

Las Vegas oddsmakers, however, have rated the Chargers as 6½-point favorites, as indicated by most of the properties listed on the Don Best odds screen. The total was hovering between 42 and 43 at midweek. Kickoff time at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday is 4:15 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

As for the various intriguing storylines on display in this matchup, we’ll try to cover them one-by-one.

1) San Diego coaching situation: It’s no secret that Norv Turner is on the hot seat at Qualcomm Stadium, where the Spanos Family is likely out of patience with the Bolts’ continuing underachieving ways.

The Chargers have often rallied down the stretch and hit the playoffs with some steam in Norv’s tenure, managing to self-motivate themselves despite Turner’s passive presence. But they couldn’t pull the same trick last season, when late losses to the Raiders and Bengals scotched the playoff drive. And the current 5-game midseason losing streak has San Diego poised to miss the postseason again as it sits level with the Chiefs at the foot of the AFC West table.

A loss this week likely spells doom for Turner, although most insiders aren’t sure if Dean Spanos would hit the eject button now or wait until after the season. But rest assured two straight playoff-less seasons out of a weak division will seal Norv’s fate.

2) Tebow Mania: It’s been (Tim) Tebow time in Denver the past month, with the ex-Florida Gator at the helm of one of the more unlikely rallies in modern NFL history. The Broncos have won and covered four of five since Tebow assumed the starting role in mid-October, after coming off of the bench and nearly leading an upset of the Chargers back on October 9.

Tebow has three times rallied the Broncos from deficits in the second half, and has three such comeback wins from double-digit deficits in his eight career starts. Despite completing only 45% of his passes, Tebow continues to provide uncanny and contagious leadership in the fourth quarter, as hard-to-imagine rallies vs. the Dolphins and Jets would attest.

In the meantime, Tebow continues to blow up every NFL stereotype with his intangibles that are overcoming a long windup and continuing inaccuracy with his throws, instead prompting Bronco coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to dust off the read-option plays that Tebow used to great effect at Florida. The option proved a handful for the Raiders and Chiefs when Denver won the first two of its current three-game uptick, although the option was used sparingly in last week’s 17-13 win over the Jets.

3) What’s wrong with Philip Rivers? Whatever it is, this isn’t the same Rivers we’ve come to know over the past few years, already exceeding his career-worst interception numbers with 17 picks this season (15 his previous worst), and there’s still six games to go. Throw in four lost fumbles and the Chargers QB has been a gridiron version of Charlie Brown from “Peanuts” fame.

Theories abound, including a downgrade of supporting talent, a plausible explanation after GM A.J. Smith unwisely allowed RB/KR Darren Sproles to move to New Orleans, coupled with TE Antonio Gates’ recurring foot injuries that have slowed him down and made him a shell of his former All-Pro self.

4) John Elway: The Broncos prexy has injected himself back into the news this week by offering only lukewarm support for Tebow and reportedly scouting last week’s Baylor-Oklahoma game to perhaps take a look at a pair of QBs, Robert Griffin III and Landry Jones. Although Elway also decided to cut ties with former starter Kyle Orton this week, effectively giving Tebow the rest of this season to show more improvement, with Brady Quinn and Minnesota rookie Adam Weber (up from the practice squad) now the backups.

There is, however, still a game to be played at Qualcomm, and there are some other developments to note. In particular, Denver’s much improved defense led by all-world rookie LB Von Miller, now with 10 sacks on the season and quickly becoming one of the most-disruptive defensive influences in the AFC. Along with hybrid DE Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos are effectively collapsing opposing pockets this season, and got to Rivers five times in the first meeting.

Recent series trends favor San Diego, which has won and covered four straight vs. the Broncos, but there seems to be change in the air in the AFC West, where the division has suddenly begun to implode around Denver, indicated by the Chargers’ five straight losses both outright and against the number. With Tebow in the lineup, the Broncos are also slowing the pace and have gone “under” their last two games after a 22-7 “over” run previously.

Whatever, bet against Tebow at your own risk.

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Tennessee Titans 3-Point Chalk Vs Buccaneers

The Bucs head to Nashville as 3-point underdogs against the Titans.
The 2011 season is quickly slipping away from the Titans and Buccaneers, who both envisioned themselves as playoff entrants when the campaign commenced.

The loser of their Sunday clash, however, can probably forget about the postseason. The winner might not be in much better shape but will at least carry some momentum out of this weekend.

Thus, the stakes are pretty high for Tennessee (5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread) and Tampa Bay (4-6 SU & ATS) when they tee things up at LP Field, across the Cumberland River from downtown Nashville, on Sunday. The Don Best odds screen indicates the Titans as 3-point favorites at almost every Las Vegas wagering outlet, with the total fairly priced at 43.

Kickoff time not far from the Pancake Pantry and Ernest Tubb's Record Shop will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage.

Modern-day fans who can’t remember the days when the Bucs wore their creamsicle-colored uniforms or when the Titans campaigned as the Houston Oilers might not realize these two were once involved in what was a landmark game for the Tampa Bay franchise.

Indeed, the Oilers/Titans were the Bucs’ first-ever regular-season opponent.

Of course, 1976 was a long time ago, so anyone not at least in their mid 40s would probably have no recollection of that game or that interesting season in which Tampa Bay and Seattle entered the NFL as expansion franchises. That year, the Bucs campaigned in the AFC as a member of the West Division, and the Seahawks were a member of the NFC West, although each team simply played every other team in its conference one time, plus each other, in the 14-game schedule that year. Seattle and Tampa Bay flipped conference the next season in 1977, with the Seahawks now in the AFC West and Bucs in the old NFC Central, and continued the same schedule pattern by playing each conference team once, and each other. Permanent assignments were made in 1978, when the teams stayed in their 1977 divisions.

The Bucs played their first game on September 12, 1976 at the Astrodome, and were hanging with Bum Phillips’ Oilers at halftime, trailing just 7-0. Tampa Bay, with none other than Steve Spurrier (yes, that Steve Spurrier) at QB, missed a quality chance to level matters in the third quarter, and Houston began to pull away from John McKay’s team thereafter. A pair of Dan Pastorini TD passes, one each to RB Fred Willis and WR Ken Burrough, and a pair of Skip Butler field goals proved all the scoring Houston would need in a 20-0 win, a familiar theme for the Bucs in their winless, 0-14 campaign of ’76 in which they were blanked four more times.

Fast-forward 35 years to Sunday, and much has changed. Tampa Bay now plays in a different stadium, the uniforms don’t look like they did for either in 1976, and the Oilers exist only in memory, although owner Bud Adams is still around, the last link to the old AFL days in Houston. The thought in 1976 of an NFL team based in Nashville, playing in a gleaming stadium, might have seemed a bit far-fetched, too.

Adams’ current Tennessee side received a scare last week when QB Matt Hasselbeck suffered an elbow injury that knocked him out of the game at Atlanta. Subsequent examinations have revealed no structural damage, so the former Seahawk, Packer, and Boston College QB is likely good to go this week.

In the meantime, Titans fans got a sneak preview of coming attractions when Washington Huskies rookie QB Jake Locker rallied Tennessee within striking distance with a pair of TD passes that cut the Falcons’ lead to 23-17, although the Titans could get no closer.

There wasn’t much else for Titan backers to like about the effort, especially another hugely disappointing day from RB Chris Johnson, who seemed to be back on track after gaining 130 yards rushing the previous week at Carolina. At the Georgia Dome, however, he endured the roughest day of his career (which is saying something after his struggles earlier this season), held to only 13 yards on 12 carries.

Hasselbeck (and Locker) have also been hampered all season by the lack of a true No. 1 receiver since Kenny Britt went down with a knee injury.

This is truly the last chance for the Bucs to have a realistic look at the postseason, as a win over the Titans sets up a decent possibility that Tampa Bay could get to 7-6 in two weeks with likely underdogs Carolina and Jacksonville on deck.

Bucs backers, however, will point out an especially difficult stretch of game recently endured by their team vs. the 49ers, Saints (twice), Bears, Texans, and Packers in which Tampa Bay went 1-5. Of some encouragement for Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris was the performance of recent-slumping QB Josh Freeman last week at Green Bay, passing for 342 yards and a pair of scores. Although for the season, Freeman has now tossed 15 picks compared to just 11 TD passes.

The Bucs are also a bit healthier in the backfield now that RB LeGarrette Blount has returned to the lineup.

This game, however, likely turns on developments involving the Tampa Bay stop unit. The Bucs rank near the bottom in NFL rush defense stats, allowing nearly five yards per carry, and cannot afford for Johnson to regain his rhythm and provide Hasselbeck (or Locker) a solid infantry diversion. Tampa Bay has also been burned by three TD plays of 40 yards or longer the past two weeks. Although in this case we’re not sure the Titans will be much of a threat, with top receiver Nate Washington hardly a feared downfield weapon and gaining less than 13 yards per reception this season.

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Atlanta Falcons Home To Battle Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota and Atlanta have met on a few memorable occasions in the past. We’re not sure Sunday’s renewal between two of the NFL’s expansion children from the 1960s will have similar long-lasting appeal.

Indeed, when looking at the NFL standings, this one only has meaning for the Falcons (6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread), still tracking close behind the Saints in the NFC South and in the mix with a handful of others for one of the two available conference wild card berths. For the Vikings (2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS), the talk is already about 2012.

The Don Best odds page shows Atlanta as a solid 9½-point favorite as most Las Vegas betting shops, with the total sitting at 44½ at the majority of outlets. FOX will provide the TV coverage from the Georgia Dome for the 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff, which allows fans plenty of time to visit one of the Dreamland BBQ outlets around the Perimeter and enjoy a rib plate, some brunswick stew, banana pudding and sweet tea after the downtown fun at The Dome is complete.

Mention of Minnesota and Atlanta will always recall their pulsating 1998 NFC championship game at the Metrodome, when the 15-1 Vikings looked destined for a showdown two weeks later in Miami with defending Super Bowl champion Denver. Clearing the Atlanta hurdle was not going to be easy, but few teams had hinted at slowing the bombs-away Minnesota offense featuring Randall Cunningham throwing jump balls to Randy Moss and Chris Carter, with Robert Smith providing an explosive infantry diversion.

Atlanta, no chopped liver and 14-2 itself that season, kept hanging around all afternoon, however, and when Viking PK Gary Anderson missed a rare field goal in the fourth quarter, the door was opened for Chris Chandler, Jamal Anderson and the Falcon offense to march downfield and force overtime. Which they did, preceding their own PK, Morten Andersen, winning the game in extra time with his own field goal.

That 30-27 final still rates as the high-water mark in Falcon history, as the subsequent Super Bowl vs. Denver was a letdown.

Speaking of letdowns, that’s what the 2011 season has been for Minnesota, which officially went into rebuild mode in late October when turning the keys of the offense over to Florida State rookie QB Christian Ponder.

The summer addition of Donovan McNabb turned out to be ill-advised, with the former Redskin and Eagle QB past his sell-by date. This was also a tougher year to add a new quarterback into the mix after the lockout which lasted from spring until late July, with no offseason work to get acclimated. And McNabb never quite took flight in Minnesota, afraid to throw the ball downfield and not providing the sort of leadership coach Leslie Frazier was hoping to see. Once it became apparent the Vikings were not going to make a playoff push, the switch to Ponder became a no-brainer.

To ths point, Ponder has been better than expected in his four starts, but the goal is to develop a complementary relationship with electric weapons RB Adrian Peterson and WR Percy Harvin.

Ponder has mobility and speed and is not afraid to throw the ball downfield, opening up more running lanes for Peterson. So far, Ponder looks to be progressing fast on the learning curve, although mistakes such as the three picks he suffered last week vs. the Raiders make the Vikes a rather risky proposition at the moment.

Another potential problem exists this week in Atlanta, as Peterson had to exit last week’s game vs. Oakland with an ankle injury. His status remains questionable for the game vs. the Falcons.

Meanwhile, Atlanta did not exit last week’s 23-17 win over Tennessee feeling all that good about itself, allowing the Titans a look at the game in the fourth quarter when their rookie QB Jake Locker engineered a belated rally. Moreover, coach Mike Smith was not happy with a wasteful offense that squandered several scoring opportunities, settling for field goals three times in the red zone and suffering a turnover on another trip deep into Titan territory.

Still, there are reasons for encouragement in the land of the Waffle House. Matt Ryan was relatively sharp last week, passing for over 300 yards. Moreover, Roddy White enjoyed his best game of the season, catching seven passes for 157 yards after suffering a case of the dropsies in previous weeks. Another bonus for the Falcon passing game in recent weeks has been the emergence of 4th-year ex-Louisville wideout Harry Douglas, now a consistent threat whose speed can help stretch the field and keep opposing safeties from being overly aggressive in run support.

Speaking of running the football, that’s what Atlanta’s Michael Turner does best whenever at the Georgia Dome, where his career numbers are much better than they are on the road. “The Burner” netted another 100 yards on the ground last week vs. the Titans as he closes in on another 1000-yard campaign.

And should Peterson be available this week for the Vikings, he’ll have to deal with a stout Falcons rush “D” allowing only 85 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry, and completely shut down Tennessee’s Chris Johnson last week, limiting him to just 13 yards on 12 carries. The Falcons’ DL has routinely applied more pressure since DT Jonathan Babineaux returned from a knee injury in mid-October.

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Caleb Hanie To QB Bears At Oakland Raiders

Kamerion Wembley has provided a recent spark to Oakland’s defense.
The rumor mill is whirring in Chicago after QB Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb late in last week’s 31-20 win over the Chargers.

Expect the buzz to continue until the Bears (7-3 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) sign another signal-caller (more on that on a moment). For this weekend, at least, the Monsters of the Midway seem quite comfortable with the options they have on hand.

Whatever, we’ll know more about Chicago’s non-Cutler plight after Sunday’s game at the venerable O.co Coliseum in Oakland against the host Raiders (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS). News of Cutler’s injury caused a sharp jump in the number early in the week, confirmed by the Don Best odds screen which notes the Raiders now priced as 4-4½ point favorites at the various Las Vegas wagering outlets. Depending upon the property, the total on the game is fluctuating between 41 and 42 points.

Kickoff time in the East Bay will be at 4:05 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the TV coverage.

News of Cutler’s injury has dominated the news cycle this week in the Windy City, where a five-game Bear win and pointspread cover streak would normally be cause to order extra pepperoni or sausage on one of the delectable pizza pies at one of the many Lou Malnati’s restaurants in town. Instead, thumb problems for “Midway Jay” are causing many Bears backers to order another stiff drink.

No need to worry, assure head coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Martz, both of whom have confidence in backup Caleb Hanie to keep the Bear machine humming.

You might remember Hanie from last January’s NFC title game at Soldier Field against the Packers. Cutler’s leg injury forced the little-used former Colorado State Ram into the lineup, where he promptly came close to authoring one of the great bullpen stories in NFL playoff annals. Hanie rallied Chicago from a 21-0 deficit, cutting the margin to 21-14 and having the Bears in position to force an unlikely overtime with a last-minute drive deep into Green Bay territory.

Hanie showed poise and cool under fire and is well-schooled in his second year of exposure the Martz offense. The bulk of Hanie’s work this campaign, however, came in preseason; in his career, he’s only thrown 14 regular-season passes.

He also brings another dimension to the Chicago offense with his mobility, prompting none other than LB Brian Urlacher to comment the Bears “can use some (Tim) Tebow stuff” with Hanie at the helm.

The key for the Bears lately, however, has been a rededication to the ground game, and RB Matt Forte in particular. As the Bears went back-and-forth while winning just two of their first five games, they were decidedly imbalanced, averaging 40 passes and only 16 runs per game. The pass/run ratio has been nearly 50-50 in the five games since, with Forte fueling the engine room with 926 rush yards. Along with his 46 pass receptions, Forte is making a case that might rival Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers for NFC MVP honors.

But with Cutler probably sidelined until at least Christmas, Lovie and GM Jerry Angelo are likely to peruse the available market for an emergency QB alternative. And Denver might have thrown the Bears a real life preserver by just releasing Kyle Orton, the Broncos’ early-season starter and former Bear who started several games for Lovie (though before Martz arrived in Chicago) earlier in his career. For the moment, Idaho rookie Nathan Enderle is only other QB alternative. Stay tuned for further developments.

Defense has also keyed the recent Chicago surge which ironically began after the stop unit was burned for a couple of long TDs (a recurring them in the first month of the season) in a Monday night game at Detroit on October 10. Lovie subsequently benched safeties Chris Harris (eventually released and signed by, of all teams, the Lions) and Brandon Meriweather, with Major Wright and Chris Conte proving definite upgrades in their places. The Bears have also forced nine turnovers in their last two games.

Meanwhile, Oakland has stabilized after things began to go a bit pear-shaped in late October following an injury to QB Jason Campbell, who had been a revelation. Former Bengal Carson Palmer was quickly signed by coach Hue Jackson (who was offensive coordinator at Southern Cal when Palmer played for the Trojans) and has provided solid if not spectacular leadership since tossing three picks in each of his first two games wearing the Silver & Black against the Chiefs and Broncos.

Palmer has run a more-conservative, and effective, offense the past two weeks, passing just 20 times at San Diego and 23 times at Minnesota. More importantly, the former Heisman Trophy winner has only tossed one pick in those wins over the Chargers and Vikings that have put the Raiders back on top of the AFC West, a game ahead of surprising Denver and two up on fading San Diego and Kansas City.

Importantly, Oakland has not missed top-shelf RB Darren McFadden, absent the last three games with an injured foot. Saving the day, however, has been punishing ex-Louisville RB Michael Bush, gaining well over 100 yards per game in McFadden’s absence (including 256 total yards in the Nov. 10 win at San Diego).

Defensively, note the enhanced Oakland pass rush the past two weeks, with 11 sacks combined in the wins over the Chargers and Vikings. Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley has been responsible for four of those himself.

Spread-wise, Oakland has turned around what was a very negative home chalk mark, splitting its last eight decisions vs. the number as a Coliseum favorite. The Raiders had dropped 11 straight laying points at home before turning around the trend a year ago. Oakland is also ‘over’ 8-4 its last 12 at the Coliseum.

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Buffalo Bills Get Rematch Against New York Jets

Rex Ryan’s Jets are healthy 8-point home favorites against the Bills.
The nature of the NFL suggests a natural back-and-forth in team performance and results.

It also notes that once a team falls into the abyss, it is unlikely to recover.

Which brings us to this weekend and the AFC East standings that say that Buffalo (5-5 straight up and against the spread) and the New York Jets (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) are level in the division table. Recent performances and one-sided series trends, however, suggest that any deadlock between the two isn’t to be revisited the rest of the 2011 campaign after Sunday, when the two get together in the Meadowlands at Met Life Stadium.

The Don Best odds screen shows the Jets priced as an 8-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total mostly sitting at 42½ points. Kickoff time in the swamplands of New Jersey will be 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage.

Although the Jets have performed in an erratic manner all season, at least New York has exhibited a pulse in recent weeks., which has hardly been the case with the Bills, suffering from multiple systems breakdowns in November.

In other words, Buffalo looks to have fallen into the dreaded abyss.

Results confirm the Buffalo downturn, as over the Bills’ last three games, they’re not only winless and without a pointspread cover, but they’ve been outscored a whopping 106-26 (average score 35-9). And one of those defeats was against the Jets, who had no problem three weeks ago in Orchard Park, scoring an easy 27-11 win that sent the Bills into their current tailspin.

That afternoon, the Jets provided a road map for others to follow in defending the Chan Gailey Buffalo offense. In particular, coach Rex Ryan’s defense routinely employed five and six defensive backs to combat Gailey’s pet “five wide” looks which effectively jammed the Bills’ gear box. Subsequent Buffalo foes have followed suit, resulting in reduced stats for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had ironically signed a lucrative contract extension just prior to the commencement of the recent slump.

Fitzpatrick’s numbers have not been pretty the past three weeks, completing only 54 percent of his passes after connecting on nearly 70 percent of his throws prior. He’s totaled just 546 yards (182 pg) via the airways in that stretch, down almost 70 yards per game from his first seven outings. Moreover, he’s thrown only two TD passes against seven picks during the recent downturn.

Further, the Bills are only converting 23 percent of their third-down plays in the losing streak, and missed all 12 such chances last Sunday at Miami. Falling behind quickly in recent losses against the Jets, Cowboys, and Dolphins has also forced Buffalo away from its running game, which has been ineffective lately. The Bills need to establish an infantry diversion with RB Fred Jackson (934 YR in 2011), but he could be at less than 100% for the Jets after straining his calf at Miami, a game in which he was a non-factor with only 17 yards on seven carries.

Moreover, Buffalo has caved defensively, roughly coinciding with the season-ending foot injury suffered by DT Kyle Williams. The Bills, also minus LB Shawne Merriman, have not generated a consistent pass rush all season, recording just 16 sacks, and the rush defense has been spotty.

Normally we would not have much confidence in the Jets taking advantage of any such shortcomings, but series trends indicate QB Mark Sanchez might get back on the beam after another tough outing in last Thursday’s loss at Denver. Sanchez completed 20-of-28 passes for an efficient 230 yards in the 16-point win over the Bills on November 6 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

That was merely the latest in a trio of dominating Jets wins over Buffalo. Last season, Ryan’s team won in eased-up fashion in both meetings vs. the Bills, rolling by 38-7 and 38-14 scorelines. The Jets ran for over 270 yards in both of those meetings, prompting Gailey to look for immediate defensive help in the draft when taking Alabama DT Marcell Dareus in the first round, as well as focusing upon the stop unit in free agency when Merriman and ex-Packer LB Nick Barnett were the featured roster additions.

The Jets were not quite as overwhelming on the ground in the first meeting three weeks ago, however, rushing for a more-modest 126 yards, and backfield injuries are a concern this week with RBs Shonn Greene (ribs) and LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) both doubtful participants. Expect Sanchez’ Southern Cal teammate Joe McKnight to handle the bulk of the Jets’ rushing chores this week after gaining 59 yards on the ground and catching a useful six passes a week ago in Denver.

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New England Patriots Meet Eagles In Philadelphia

Philly’s LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 1,019 yards rushing.
When looking at the 2011 NFL schedule, more than a few were suspecting that this matchup featuring New England and Philadelphia could potentially be a Super Bowl preview.

Technically, that’s still possible, although it’s hardly a topic of discussion during Thanksgiving week.

We’ll see what happens when these two meet at the Linc on Sunday. The Don Best odds screen currently lists the visiting Patriots (7-3 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) as a 3-point favorite over the host Eagles (4-6 SU & ATS) at the few Las Vegas wagering outlets that have posted a price at midweek, with a total, where posted, at 50½. Kickoff time will be 4:15 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage.

The reason for the skittishness at the Las Vegas sports books? It’s the status of Philadelphia QB Michael Vick, still unknown as we went to press due to his rib injury. Although the Birds didn’t seem to miss Vick last week, when reliever Vince Young was summoned from the bullpen and led Philly to surprising 17-10 win at Met Life Stadium against the host Giants.

More on Young/Vick in a moment. But allow us to digress for a moment as we recollect on the special nature of this infrequent interconference rivalry from the Northeast Corridor.

The Super Bowl reference is only natural when mentioning these two because of their meeting at Jacksonville in Super Bowl XXXIX back on February 5, 2005. We have always thought that the 24-21 final scoreline in favor of the Patriots was a bit misleading in a game that New England seemed in control for much of the evening.

Indeed, the enduring memory of the contest is of the Eagles and Donovan McNabb taking their sweet time on a 4th-quarter TD drive that demanded more urgency. After a failed onside kick, Philly didn’t get the ball back until 46 seconds remained, and was on its own 4-yard-line to boot. With no timeouts, the drive predictably went nowhere, a McNabb interception to Rodney Harrison with nine seconds to play ending the festivities.

After the game, controversy erupted when Eagles wideout Terrell Owens and other Philly players were indirectly critical of McNabb, which kept the call-in lines at 610 WIP in Philadelphia busy throughout that offseason.

The next meeting between the teams in November of 2007, was also an interesting one, when the Patriots were storming their way toward a 16-0 regular-season mark. Having hardly taken a deep breath while covering nine of their first 10 wins, Bill Belichick’s team was installed as whopping 22-point favorites at Foxborough. The game, however, was not easy for New England, which had to rally late for a 31-28 triumph, in retrospect the first chink in the Patriots’ armor that season, and one the Giants would finally exploit in the Super Bowl.

Sunday’s battle has more urgency attached to it for the Eagles, who are trying to rally their way back into the NFC East race. Wildly inconsistent, the Birds hit one of their high notes last Sunday night in the aforementioned win against the Giants when “V.Y.” came to the rescue.

Young, playing in a mostly-controlled manner in his first start in an Eagle uniform, completed 23-of-36 passes for 258 yards and two scores. Granted, V.Y. suffered three picks, but also expertly led a late, 18-play drive that resulted in a game-winning 8-yard TD pass to Riley Cooper with 2:45 to play.

Evidence would suggest there is little if any dropoff between Vick and Young, mainly because the Birds can rely on other weapons on the attack. Specifically RB LeSean McCoy, now on 1,019 rush yards this season, and WR DeSean Jackson, who caught six of Young’s passes last Sunday night.

More encouraging for the Eagles vs. the G-Men was the effort of a defense that has come under a lot of criticism this season. While most acknowledged that Andy Reid erred when moving Juan Castillo from OL coach to the defensive coordinator position, the Birds have tightened up their stop unit in recent weeks since Reid changed assignments for his defensive staff, with Castillo now getting extra help in calling the defensive signals.

The Patriots have had defensive concerns this year, too, ranking near the bottom of NFL stats all season thanks to a mostly-rebuilt back seven. New England is also showing signs of responding to Belichick’s noted defensive scheming, having allowed only 19 points over the last two games, dominant wins over the Jets and Chiefs that have helped them reassume command of the AFC East, a division they now lead by two games over the Bills and Jets.

As always, keeping QB Tom Brady from causing severe damage will be key in controlling the Patriot offense. New England endured a rare attack-end slump a few weeks back when opposing defenses were succeeding in pressuring Brady from the inside, forcing him into more uncomfortable rolls to his right or left to escape traffic rather than stepping inside of the pass rush, as he would prefer.

A key in this matchup will be if either Young or Vick can pick the pocket of Belichick’s pass defense, which has mostly labored this season. The Pats have allowed 63 percent completions and 15 TD passes, the latter number helped by facing pedestrian Jets and Chiefs offenses the past two weeks. The Eagles’ chances increase if one of their QBs can similarly exploit what has been a burnable New England pass defense.

Also note that Belichick has won his three previous meetings vs. Philly coach Andy Reid in 2003, the Super Bowl after the 2004 season, and 2007, though the Birds have covered the last two.

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Pittsburgh Steelers At Kansas City Chiefs Sunday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to let a little broken thumb get in the way of a Sunday night visit to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Steelers are between 10-10½ point favorites at Don Best with a total of 39½-40. The normal NBC crew will broadcast at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from Arrowhead Stadium.

The Steelers (7-3 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) are coming off a bye week tied with Baltimore in the AFC North. They would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Ravens after getting swept, so that makes every game vital.

Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in its last six games, with the only loss coming at home against Baltimore 23-20.

Roethlisberger fractured the thumb on his throwing hand last game against Cincinnati. Unlike the injury to Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, which will keep him out the rest of the regular season, Big Ben just needs to wear a splint to continue to play.

Pittsburgh will likely go out of the shotgun formation more to protect Roethlisberger’s thumb and there’s no guarantee it won’t affect his throwing, However, he’s about as tough as they come in blocking out injuries and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play really well.

Coach Mike Tomlin would love to limit passing this week and feature running back Rashard Mendenhall. The problem is he’s only averaging a measly 37 YPG (2.7 per carry) on the road, compared to 67 YPG (4.9 per carry) at home.

Pittsburgh has won and covered its last two road games at Cincinnati (24-17) and Arizona (32-20) after starting the season 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS away. However, it was Roethlisberger’s arm and the defense that won those games and certainly not the rushing attack.

The ‘over’ is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven road games (4-1 this year).

The Chiefs (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) are still only two games behind Oakland in the AFC West, but they look like the worst team in that division, even with San Diego on an 0-5 SU and ATS streak.

Kansas City has been doing some bad ‘streaking’ of its own, losers of 3-straight (SU and ATS). Quarterback is the biggest issue with Matt Cassel (hand) out for the season and Tyler Palko getting the start last Monday night at New England. The 28-year-old has done stints in the UFL and CFL and certainly didn’t look NFL caliber with three picks in the 34-3 loss.

Coach Todd Haley’s team hasn’t scored more than 10 points the last three games. The prior two losses were at home to Denver (17-10) and Miami (31-3), both times as small favorites.

The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Kansas City’s last five games and 7-1 in the last eight.

Haley will reportedly start Palko again this week as opposed to turn to rookie Ricky Stanzi. The Iowa product Stanzi was a fifth-round pick and will almost certainly get his shot this year. The pass offense (186 YPG, ranked 28th) has been bad no matter who has been playing quarterback, so there’s really not much to lose.

Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel still has his unit playing hard. It held Tom Brady to just seven points deep into the second quarter and New England’s offense only scored 20 points when you throw out the punt return for a touchdown and the meaningless score with 1:01 left, a Bill Belichick ‘rub it in’ special.

Crennel did a lot of blitzing against the Pats and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same tactic used to test Roethlisberger’s thumb.

The Steelers will also turn up the heat defensively on Palko, not worried about his below average arm strength. They’re also much healthier in the secondary than New England, who is a walking MASH Unit. The Chiefs running attack is just average after losing Jamaal Charles (knee) in September.

One player who would help the pass rush is Pittsburgh linebacker LaMarr Woodley, questionable to return from his hamstring injury.

These teams last met in 2009 with Kansas City winning 27-24 in overtime at home. Pittsburgh had three turnovers which negated a 44-22 minute advantage in time of possession. The Chiefs are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings at Arrowhead dating back to 1999.

The ‘over’ is also 5-0 in the last five meetings overall.

Kansas City weather should be cool, in the 30s, although both teams are used to such conditions.

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New York Giants Face New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football

The fourth-quarter magic of Eli Manning has all but disappeared as he leads his New York Giants into the Bayou to face the New Orleans Saints.

This is the Monday Night Football game and ESPN will broadcast at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New York is up to a 7-point underdog at Don Best after opening at 6 ½ and the total is 50 ½ points.

The Giants (6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread) find themselves tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East after losing two in a row. The suddenly resurgent Cowboys have won three straight.

Coach Tom Coughlin is as hard-nosed as they come, but even he could probably live with the 27-20 loss at San Fran two weeks ago as 4-point ‘dogs. What was much harder for him to accept, and the legion of Giants fans, was the 17-10 home loss to Philadelphia last Sunday night as 6-point closing favorites.

Philly was without quarterback Michael Vick and receiver Jeremy Maclin, but the Giants acted like the game was won before kickoff. They ended up losing the ground battle by 136-29 and time of possession, 36 minutes to 24. Quarterback Eli Manning failed to mount a fourth-quarter comeback for the second week in a row after doing it five times earlier this season.

New York needs to stop playing from behind and relying on late heroics. Getting running back Ahmad Bradshaw back (foot) would help, but he’s questionable at best after missing the last three games. Tight end Jake Ballard (elbow) is probable, although his drops really hurt last game.

Linebacker Michael Boley (hamstring) is also questionable, and he’s important as he calls the defensive signals. The Giants defense gave up a late 80-yard, go-ahead drive to Vince Young last game and will need to be a lot better to slow down New Orleans’ second-ranked scoring offense (31.3 PPG) for four quarters.

New York has at least had success on Monday Night Football recently, 4-0 ATS in the last four.

The Saints (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week and sit just a game ahead of Atlanta in the NFC South. They won in Atlanta (26-23 OT) the last game they played and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for now.

Quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (3,326), spreading the ball around to several wideouts, running backs and tight end Jimmy Graham. He does have 11 interceptions on the year, which is too much for his liking, although he went unscathed against Atlanta in 43 attempts.

The running game ranks 13th in the NFL (117.5 YPG) and has good balance with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and the change-of-pace Darren Sproles. There are just so many offensive weapons that a defense has to worry about, especially on the fast-track playing inside.

The Saints have only played four home games this year, but are 4-0 SU and ATS, scoring 39.8 PPG. The home number is skewed by the 62-7 beating they put on Indianapolis on October 23. That was the last night game played in the dome, which gets even more raucous coming right off Bourbon Street.

The Saints defense is allowing 22.8 PPG on the year, tied with the Giants for 20th in the league. The passing and rushing yards allowed are also almost identical to the G-Men. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is listed as questionable with a knee injury. He last played October 30 at St. Louis.

New York should have success on offense as it tries to match points with Brees and company. Manning has a plethora of receiving weapons as well and will enjoy the indoor conditions and playing in his hometown. He does need to be careful with the ball after four picks the last three games.

These teams last played in 2009 with New Orleans winning 48-27 as 3 ½-point home favorites. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight.

Weather will not be a factor playing in the cozy, comfy dome.

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Week 12 Preview: Packers at Lions

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-0)

at DETROIT LIONS (7-3)


Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -6, Total: 55.5

Detroit is hoping to end two long streaks on Thanksgiving Day when it hosts Green Bay. The Packers have won 16 straight games and the Lions have suffered seven straight losses (SU and ATS) on the November holiday.

The Lions haven’t come within 11 points in any of their Thanksgiving defeats. But the good news is that Green Bay allowed 455 yards of offense to Tampa Bay last week while the Lions hung 49 points on Carolina. Also, they beat the Packers at home in a defensive struggle last year, 7-3. That game gets an asterisk because QB Aaron Rodgers left with a concussion late in the first half, but the Lions had held him to 46 passing yards and no points when he left, and third-string QB Drew Stanton was the Lions’ starter. Both of these teams have been highly profitable bets over the past two seasons, as Green Bay is 20-10 ATS (67%) and Detroit is even better at 18-6 ATS (75%). And the Lions are a stellar 14-5 ATS (74%) against NFC teams over this same span. The Packers may win a tight game, but expect DETROIT to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide this pair of three-star trends supporting the Lions:

DETROIT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 24.9, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season. (33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

Green Bay is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 meetings with Detroit, and Rodgers has been a big part of that with 262 passing YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in his six career games in this series. And nobody has been better than Rodgers this season, or possibly ever, as he has thrown for 317 passing YPG with 31 TD and just 4 INT. With the Packers’ top running back, James Starks, questionable with a sprained knee, Green Bay might not be able to take advantage of Detroit’s 27th-ranked run defense (135 YPG allowed).

Although Rodgers is playing on another level, the Lions are fifth in the NFL in passing defense (193 YPG) and tied for second in the league with 15 interceptions. If their front four can put the pressure on Rodgers, Detroit has enough playmakers to ruin Green Bay’s Thanksgiving. The Lions have done a great job creating turnovers recently with 12 takeaways in the past five weeks.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is coming off a monster game against Carolina, throwing for 335 yards and 5 TD. However, he also threw two interceptions, giving him six in the past two games. Stafford also threw four picks the only time he faced Green Bay in 2009. And considering the Packers defense leads the league with 19 interceptions, Stafford must make smart decisions throwing the football. But the Packers have been exposed in the passing game all year, allowing the second-most yards in the NFL (289 passing YPG).

The Lions won’t likely have top RB Jahvid Best (concussion) back on the field, but they will have Kevin Smith who is coming off a brilliant performance against Carolina. Smith rushed for 140 yards on just 16 carries (8.8 YPC) and caught four passes for 61 more yards, reaching the end zone three times. Smith has not found a lot of running room against Green Bay in the past though, gaining just 248 yards on 74 carries (3.4 YPC) with one touchdown in five career meetings with the Pack, all ending in Detroit losses.

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Lions And Packers Kick Off NFL Thanksgiving Triology

The Green Bay Packers have completed their first 10 steps towards a perfect season, but on Thanksgiving Day, they could be facing their toughest test when they take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

NFL betting action will continue until the Turkey Day kickoff this Thursday at 12:30 p.m. (ET). Television coverage can be found on FOX Sports.

The Packers (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) just continue to pour it on offensively. They aren't quite on the pace of the 2007 New England Patriots, who scored 589 points in their 16 victories, but they are certainly getting there. Green Bay scored 33 or more points for the fourth straight game last week when it beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-26.

Green Bay ranks No. 4 in the game offensively at 406.5 YPG, and easily has the most points scored this year at 35.5 PPG.

At times, there is just no stopping this passing game. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are both on pace for 1,200-yard seasons receiving, and that doesn't even include the fact that Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Donald Driver and James Starks all have at least 200 receiving yards.

The truth of the matter is that this game isn't the end all, be all for the Lions (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS). They aren't going to win the NFC North one way or the other, and regardless of how this game turns out, they are at least going to be tied for one of the Wild Card slots in the NFC.

However, the entire city of Detroit will probably tell you that this is the biggest sporting event it has seen in quite some time. There's no doubt that it is the biggest game that the Lions have played in decades, as it is a chance for them to prove that they really are one of the elite teams in the league.

This offense isn't exactly slouching either. The Lions are averaging 30.1 PPG, No. 3 in the NFL, and they have posted at least 45 points three times this year.

Matthew Stafford needs 157 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the season. He tossed five scores last week in a win against the Carolina Panthers, giving him 25 TDs against 10 INTs for the season.

His top target is Calvin Johnson, who has 59 receptions for 974 yards and 11 TDs on the campaign.

The running game got a big boost last week from Kevin Smith, who once was nearly a 1,000-yard rusher for Detroit before falling out of favor and eventually getting released. He toted the rock 16 times for 140 yards and two TDs against Carolina in his first meaningful action in basically three years, and he also had a touchdown as a receiver. With Jahvid Best still nursing a concussion and doubtful to play on Thanksgiving, Smith could be seeing a ton of work.

However, Green Bay's No. 12 ranked rush defense is a heck of a lot better than that of the No. 30 ranked Panthers, so Smith might find the sledding a lot tougher this week.

The Lions are 33-36-2 on Thanksgiving Day, while Green Bay is 13-18-2. Detroit hasn't won a game on Thanksgiving Day since a 2003 victory over none other than these Packers. Since that point, the team is 0-7 SU and ATS. The Packers beat the Lions in both 2007 and 2009 in recent history on Thanksgiving.

The first meeting of these two on Turkey Day was back in 1951. Since then, the Lions own a 11-7-1 SU advantage in this series when the two meet on the fourth Thursday of November.

The Packers opened up this week as six-point favorites, while the NFL betting lines feature a total of 55, easily the highest of all of the games this week.

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving

November 23, 2011

The NFL action starts early this week with its annual Thanksgiving Day slate on Thursday. We’ll recap Week 11 and much more in our weekly Total Talk installment on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the three holiday totals.
Green Bay at Detroit: Anytime you see a total in the fifties, you scratch your head and that’s the case with the first holiday battle. Most sportsbooks sent out 55 and the number has already jumped to 56 at a few outfits. There have been 14 games this season with a total of 50 points and more and ironically the ‘over/under’ owns a 7-7 record.

When you delve into the numbers, it’s really hard to argue for and ‘under’ play because you know both clubs will score. Green Bay leads the league with 35.5 points per game and Detroit is ranked third (30.1 PPG). The Packers have a combined 51 scores (31 TDs, 16 FGs) while the Lions have 44 (25 TDs, 19 FGs). Do the quick math and each team should get at least five scores here, but obviously we don’t know the combination of touchdowns to field goals for this week.

To no surprise, the Packers and Lions have both seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their first 10 games but make a note that the ‘under’ is 3-2 in Detroit’s five games at Ford Field this season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, with totals ranging from 45 ½ to 48 ½.

On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four, with the lone ‘under’ being Green Bay’s 34-12 (48) victory in 2009. Make a note that the Packers also smacked the Lions 37-26 (47) in 2007 on Turkey Day as well.

Not sure if we’ll see a change, but certainly due.

Miami at Dallas: While the first game has all the making of a shootout, the second affair could be a slugfest at least when you look at their total tendencies. Since the ‘over’ cashed in their Week 1 loss to losing to New England (24-38) in Week 1, the Dolphins have watched the ‘under’ cash in nine straight games. And what’s even more surprising is that Miami’s offense has played well recently, posting 31, 20 and 35 points, which has translated into three straight wins. While the attack has improved, the Fins’ defense has been better. Miami has given up a total of 20 points during its winning streak but we might want to tread lightly on those performances.

With all due respect to Rex Grossman, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick, those signal callers aren’t close to quarterback Tony Romo. The Cowboys have had some speed bumps with their gun slinger but he’s got the team on a three-game winning streak as well. During this run, Romo has passed for seven scores and no interceptions. The offense has averaged 31.3 PPG and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1. Make a note that even though the ‘Boys offense is on a roll, the defense has been a beast at home. Dallas has held four of its five opponents to 16 points or less and if you loss at its loss to Detroit (30-34), the Lions’ offense only put up 20 points, with the other 14 points coming from pick-six scores.

Prior to last year’s shootout loss to New Orleans (27-30), the Cowboys have held their last four opponents on Thanksgiving to 10 points or less. The total opened at 44 and has held steady all week.

San Francisco at Baltimore: We loved the 49ers ‘under’ (40.5) in last week’s TT and it came through rather easily in the team’s 23-7 victory over Arizona. The focus was on San Francisco’s offense, which is averaging 25.6 PPG. That’s a great number but I look at execution and the 49ers have more field goals (26) than touchdowns (25) this season. It’s good that they convert and that helps ATS numbers (9-0-1) but not necessarily ‘over’ tickets. San Francisco has seen its totals go 5-5 this season, but the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 on the road, which tells us something has to give since Baltimore has been an ‘over’ team (4-1) at M&T Bank Stadium.

Even though the Ravens’ defense (17.6 PPG) is ranked fourth in points allowed, the unit has lost some of their swagger and the numbers either point to age or attention to detail. Did you know Baltimore has allowed 718 yards in penalties, which is the worst in the NFL? We totally understand that you can’t handicap penalties or turnovers, but it’s becoming more of a trend than a coincidence – at least this season.

Offensively, Baltimore’s numbers at home (31.8 PPG) have been lights out. And those stats have come up against some solid defensive units in the Steelers, Jets and Bengals. The 49ers (14.5) are certainly in that class, which makes this total even tough to handicap. The opener got hit from 39 ½ to 38 ½ points.

Since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the five installments, including the last two.

Fearless Predictions

Best Over: Green Bay-Detroit 55.5

Best Under: Miami-Dallas 44

Best Team Total: Under Miami 18.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Green Bay-Detroit 46.5
Under Miami-Dallas 53
Under San Francisco-Baltimore 47.5

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Thanksgiving Day Action

November 23, 2011

The Thanksgiving Day card in the NFL is one of the strongest in recent memories with three quality matchups. We'll focus on the two daytime contests as three of the four teams involved are serious playoff threats inside the NFC. Things begin in the Motor City as Green Bay looks to stay unbeaten against an upstart Detroit squad.

Packers (-6, 55 ½) at Lions - 12:30 PM EST

Green Bay continued its winning ways by holding off Tampa Bay this past Sunday, 35-26 to improve to 10-0. The Packers failed to cash as 14-point favorites, but still own a strong 7-3 ATS mark as Mike McCarthy's team heads to Detroit for an NFC North showdown with the Lions.

Detroit (7-3) rallied past Carolina, 49-35, by erasing a 17-point deficit thanks to five second-half touchdowns. The Lions grabbed the cover as seven-point 'chalk,' while Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high five touchdown passes and Kevin Smith ran for two scores on the ground. Detroit is just 2-3 since a 5-0 start, but the Lions are in a good spot for a Wild Card berth as they begin Week 12 tied with the Bears.

These two clubs split a pair of meetings last season, even though the Lions took home the cash each time. Detroit upset Green Bay last December at Ford Field, 7-3, as seven-point underdogs in a battle of backup quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game early due to a concussion, while Drew Stanton hit Will Heller for the game's only touchdown in the fourth quarter.

The Lions haven't been a great play on Thanksgiving over the years, racking up an 0-7 SU/ATS mark the last seven Turkey Days. What makes this number even uglier is all seven defeats have come by double-digits, including a 45-24 loss to the Patriots last November as 6 ½-point 'dogs. In Green Bay's previous Thanksgiving visit to Motown in 2009, the Packers slaughtered the Lions, 34-12 as 11-point favorites.

Each team is riding a nice 'over' streak as Green Bay has cashed four consecutive 'overs,' while Detroit is in the midst of a three-game 'over' stretch. However, the Lions are just 2-3 to the 'over' at Ford Field, including the shootout victory over the Panthers in Week 11. This is only the third game all season that the Packers have played with a total of at least 50 ('under' at Atlanta, 'over' at San Diego).

Dolphins at Cowboys (-7, 44) - 4:15 PM EST

Both these teams have won three straight games, but it's the Cowboys (6-4) who are in a better position to succeed than the Dolphins (3-7). Dallas enters Thursday's action tied atop the NFC East with New York, while Miami is still mired in last place of the AFC East in spite of this hot stretch. The Cowboys are hitting their stride at exactly the right time, heading into their favorite holiday.

Dallas is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five games on Thanksgiving, including a cover in a 30-27 loss to New Orleans last season as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Cowboys have struggled as a home favorite the previous two seasons with a 3-8 ATS record, even though Jason Garrett's club has cashed in two of the last three home contests (Rams and Bills). The key to Dallas' 4-1 mark at home is the Cowboys' defense allowing 16 points or less in four games, while allowing two defensive touchdowns in a loss to the Lions.

Miami's offense finally woke up the last three weeks by averaging 28.6 ppg, including a season-high 35 points against Buffalo this past Sunday. The eight-game 'under' streak came to an end thanks to a 'push' on the 43 total, while the Dolphins' defense has allowed a grand total of 20 points during this three-game winning streak. From a pointspread perspective, the Dolphins are 4-0 ATS the last four weeks, while culminating a 17-7 ATS ledger as a road 'dog under Tony Sparano.

Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season against AFC opponents, including road covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots. Miami has fared well in interconference action with a 5-2 ATS record since November 2009, while cashing in each of the last four contests on the highway. The 'under' has been kind to the Dolphins away from South Florida this season by cashing in all five road games.

[StarDust Bum]

San Francisco at Baltimore

November 24, 2011

Click here for San Francisco-Baltimore Winners!

Are the 49ers Super Bowl contenders?

According to the sportsbooks, they are. The team is currently listed as the third choice (8/1) at Bodog.com to win this year’s championship, behind Green Bay (2/1) and New England (9/1).

San Francisco just notched its ninth victory in Week 11, easily beating Arizona 23-7 as a 10-point home favorite. With the win, the 49ers have produced their best record since they went 10-6 in 2002 under Steve Mariucci and they’ve already cashed WIN TOTAL tickets for some sharp bettors.

Most would expect new head coach Jim Harbaugh to top the 10-win mark, even though the club finishes with four of their last six on the road. Playing outside of the Bay Area this season has been nothing short of gold for the club. San Francisco has gone 4-0 both straight up and against the spread on the road, which has helped their overall ATS record (9-0-1).

What’s more impressive about the 49ers’ road mark is where the games have been played, all in the Eastern Time Zone. A lot of gamblers and handicappers like to fade teams traveling from West to East and vice versa. Unfortunately that theory hasn’t panned out well this season.

West Coast @ East Coast Results
Matchup SU - ATS
San Francisco 13 @ Cincinnati 9 Win - Win
San Francisco 24 @ Philadelphia 23 Win - Win
San Francisco 25 @ Detroit Win - Win
San Francisco 19 @ Washington 11 Win - Win
Oakland 35 @ Buffalo 38 Loss - Win
San Diego 21 @ New England 35 Loss - Loss
San Diego 21 @ New York Jets 27 Loss - Loss
San Diego 21 @ New England 35 Loss - Loss
Seattle 0 @ Pittsburgh 24 Loss - Loss
Seattle 36 @ New York Giants 25 Win - Win
Seattle 3 @ Cleveland Loss - Push
Arizona 21 @ Washington 22 Loss - Win
Arizona 27 @ Baltimore 30 Loss - Win
Arizona 21 @ Philadelphia 17 Win - Win
Overall Results: SU (7-6) ATS (9-3-1)



Looking at the above table, you can see that San Francisco isn’t the only team playing in the Pacific Time Zone that has success on the opposite coast. If you take out San Diego (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), who’s been a huge disappointment, the overall record for the four other clubs who play out west are 7-4 SU and 9-1-1 ATS.

Make a note that these outcomes on the East Coast aren’t just a coincidence. The five clubs out west have also done well at home against teams from the East, posting a 7-5 SU and 7-4-1 ATS mark, and that includes the Chargers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) too.

It’s certainly been a nice angle this season and it’s worked out well, but we always encourage bettors to do their homework for every matchup. With that being said, let’s fast forward to San Francisco’s primetime battle against Baltimore.

It doesn’t take a genius to understand that San Francisco has overachieved this season and even though Baltimore is 7-3, they’re still suspect. In June, Cantor Gaming released all of the NFL lines for every game and the number on this particular matchup was Baltimore minus 8 ½ points.

This past Sunday, Baltimore opened as a four-point favorite but the number has dipped to 3 ½ and 3 (-125) at most books.

A couple weeks ago I talked about the dangers of laying short wood (2.5 to 3.5) in a column. After 12 weeks, favorites with a closing number between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points are 26-18 SU and 18-23-3 ATS (44%). Digging into the numbers further, home favorites in the same range this season are 14-9 SU, but only 8-14-1 ATS (36%). The bottom line is to be careful with short favorites at home and if a team is laying a small price on the road, they’re doing so because they’re the better squad.

Numbers never lie, but if there is a team you want to back at home just to win, it’s Baltimore. The Ravens have been great under head coach John Harbaugh. During his tenure, he’s gone 24-5 at M&T Bank Stadium. What’s even more impressive, four of those five losses have been three points, the other by four. In case you’re wondering, the five setbacks came against AFC foes too, three times to Pittsburgh.

What about against the spread?

We reached out to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence for a quick answer. He replied “Harbaugh is 16-0 straight up and 13-3 ATS career record as a non-division home favorite, including 7-0 ATS when laying seven points or less.”

Kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. ET, with NFL Network

[StarDust Bum]

Week 12 Preview: Dolphins at Cowboys

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-7)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-4)


Kickoff: Thursday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 44

The Dolphins seek their fourth win in a row when they spend Thanksgiving in Dallas, winners of three straight.

Miami has three consecutive double-digit wins, beating its opponents by a hefty 86-20 margin during the win streak. And over the past two years, the Dolphins have played better football on the road than at home—they’re 8-5 ATS (62%) outside of Miami over the past two seasons. Dallas has a habit of playing down to its opponent, as evidenced by the team’s 3-12-1 ATS record (20%) as a favorite over the past two years. The pick here is MIAMI to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Dolphins:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Miami has played nine straight games Under the total and this three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the UNDER on Thursday:

MIAMI is 38-13 UNDER (74.5%, +23.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 17.0, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*).

The Dolphins recent surge has much to do with QB Matt Moore making a number of big plays. He was 14-of-20 for 160 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in last week’s 35-8 trouncing of Buffalo. The Cowboys have used some creative defensive looks under first-year coordinator Rob Ryan, and they’ve managed to confuse opposing offenses on several occasions. But Miami has been balanced on offense, out-rushing three of their past four opponents with the duo of Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. Bush has been able to rack up some huge gains in three career games versus Dallas, rushing for 8.4 yards per carry and adding nine catches for 154 yards (17.1 avg). Dolphins star WR Brandon Marshall had only one reception last week, but he expects to bounce back against a Dallas secondary still missing starting cornerback Mike Jenkins (hamstring).

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving Day, and they have the offense to exploit a suspect Miami pass defense, even with their best receiver shelved in Miles Austin (hamstring). With their lack of quality depth in the secondary, the Dolphins will have trouble matching up against a multi-faceted Cowboys passing attack that saw five players catch at least three passes in last week’s overtime win in Washington. QB Tony Romo threw for 292 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT against the Redskins, giving him a 69% completion rate, 841 passing yards (280 YPG), 8 TD and 0 INT during the three-game win streak. Romo needs another big afternoon considering the Dolphins have been so stingy against the run, allowing just 276 yards (69 YPG) on 3.0 yards per carry in the past four games. DeMarco Murray is having a huge rookie season (747 rushing yards, 6.0 YPC), but was held to 73 yards on 25 carries (2.9 YPC) last week.