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**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 12:53 AM

Dallas Cowboys Host Dolphins For Thanksgiving Tussle

The Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys have played in some memorable Thanksgiving Day games before, and NFL betting fanatics will hope that this year's matchup is no exception when the teams meet in Arlington in Week 12.

Kickoff from Cowboys Stadium is set for 4:15 p.m. (ET), and there is live television coverage available on CBS.

It's amazing to think that the Dolphins (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) have won three games in a row. They were once thought to be a contender for nothing more than the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, but all of a sudden, a win in this game opens up the possibility of at least staying remotely in the playoff picture.

Over these last three games, Miami has won by an aggregate score of 86-20. The Dolphins have sored at least 31 in two of the three games, and none of their opponents – Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins and Buffalo Bills – reached double digits.

The defense has really been the difference for the Fins. They rank No. 17 in the league in total defense at 350.0 YPG, but if you take out that Week 1 debacle against the New England Patriots, they are only allowing 331.6 YPG, which would rank No. 11.

Matt Moore has also done a tremendous job the last two weeks. He hasn't had to do much, but the Oregon State product has thrown for 404 yards and six TDs without tossing an interception. He is also completing nearly 72 percent of his passes in that stretch.

Of course, this game against the Cowboys (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) is going to be a significantly harder challenge, especially on Thanksgiving in front of a national audience.

The Cowboys have found their stride, and have also won three straight games to get back into a first place tie in the NFC East.

Tony Romo has led this team to an average of 31.3 PPG over the course of the last three weeks, and has been doing this without Miles Austin, one of his top receivers in the lineup.

Austin has a hamstring injury that has kept him out of the last two games, and he is considered questionable in this one.

Romo will still have Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson to throw the pigskin to, and of course, we cannot forget about Jason Witten and his 670 yards with five scores as well.

DeMarco Murray continues to just pound the football. He has rushed for at least 70 yards in five straight, averaging 20 carries per game in that stretch and proving to be the workhorse that the Cowboys were desperately looking for in the offseason.

The Dolphins have played on Thanksgiving Day six times, going 5-1 in those duels, the best winning percentage for any team who has played at least five times on Thanksgiving. Dallas is 27-15-1 in its 43 appearances.

The Cowboys had won four straight both SU and ATS on Turkey Day before losing to the New Orleans Saints last year on the holiday.

Miami does have three wins in "Big D" on Thanksgiving, most notably the 1993 game in which Leon Lett became a laughing stock for tripping over the football in the snow to give the Dolphins their opportunity to win the game 16-14.

A few weeks ago, this surely would have been a double digit point spread. However, with the Dolphins playing good football, Dallas is only getting the nod by a touchdown. The total has been set at 44½.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 12:55 AM

Harbaugh Brothers Cap NFL Thanksgiving Betting Action

A trio of top-notch NFL betting matchups is on the Thanksgiving viewing slate for those who don't fall victim to the powers of tryptophan.

Packers at Lions (+6, 55½)
Ford Field – 12:30 p.m. (ET) FOX

Seeing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day is certainly not a rare sight. Seeing them in a Thanksgiving game that actually means something, well, it's been a while since we saw that. And this year, it's extra special with their unbeaten rivals in Motown and the Lions looking to snap a 7-Turkey Day losing streak.

Detroit's 72nd holiday matchup finds the Lions 6-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers, with the highest total by far on the Week 12 NFL odds chart. The Lions are three games behind the 10-0 Packers in the NFC North, tied for second place in the division with Chicago.

It goes without saying how big a win would be. Simply ending Green Bay's shot at a perfect season would be cause for celebration by itself. Keeping the heat on Chicago and the rest of the playoff hopefuls would be even more important as the Lions look to end an 11-year postseason drought.

The two rivals are certainly no strangers to each other, especially on Thanksgiving. This will be the 20th time the two teams have met since 1951, and fifth time since we reached the 21st century. Green Bay has won three of the previous four meetings, the most recent in 2009 when the Packers were guests of the Lions and posted a 34-12 triumph as 11-point chalk.

The Lions' streak of Thanksgiving futility goes beyond bad to embarrassing. Detroit is 1-9 the last 10 trips out on Turkey Day and has dropped the past seven by a combined score of 258-99. Last year saw the New England Patriots laying six and win going away, 45-24, outscoring Detroit 35-7 in the second half.

My Pick: Detroit +6, 'under' 55½

Dolphins at Cowboys (-7, 44½)
Cowboys Stadium – 4:15 p.m. (ET) CBS

Amazing what can happen between two holidays. Halloween found Miami and Dallas a combined 3-11. All three wins belonged to the Cowboys.

The two squads are a combined 6-0 since then, making Thursday's middle game on the NFL betting card suddenly mean more than just a walk down Memory Lane from previous Day of Feast matchups between the pair.

Turkey Day has been cranberry, berry good for the Dolphins. Miami is 5-1 on Thanksgiving, 3-1 in Dallas specifically. It's the Fins' first appearance on the fourth Thursday of November since 2006 in Detroit, a 27-10 decision vs. the Lions.

Miami has manhandled three opponents since beginning the 2011 season 0-7, besting the Chiefs, Redskins and Bills by an average 29-7, or thereabouts, and could easily be 6-4 heading into this game.

Thanks to their good friends in Philadelphia, the Cowboys now own a share of the lead in the NFC East following a 3-game surge in the win column. Dallas is coming off a tough overtime win at Washington this past week, but has played this short week at home with success over the years, 27-15-1.

The Cowboys fell to their neighbors from New Orleans last Thanksgiving, 30-27, with the Saints laying 4-5 at closing. That loss ended a 4-year win streak on Turkey Day for Jerry's gang.

My Pick: Dallas -7, 'over' 44½

49ers at Ravens (-3, 38½)
M&T Bank Stadium – 8:20 p.m. (ET) NFL Network

The Harbaugh Brothers go at it in the nightcap, for my money the best matchup of Thursday's threesome. Neither Baltimore nor San Francisco really needs this game as far as their playoff chances go, yet the game still seems have more riding on the line.

San Fran is the brightest surprise in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh's club riding an 8-game string of wins and a bettor's dream beating the spread. His older bro' John's squad in Baltimore has been the victim of a few road letdowns, but is unbeaten at home in five matchups and a friend to those playing 'over' (8-2).

Neither team has much experience on Thanksgiving. The Ravens are making their first appearance since 1989 when the franchise was known as the Cleveland Browns, and it's been nearly 40 years since the 49ers played on the holiday (1972).

My Pick: Ravens -3, 'over' 38½

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 12:58 AM

San Francisco 49ers Head East To Baltimore Ravens

Two of the NFL’s top teams take the field this Thursday night for a Thanksgiving showdown when the San Francisco Giants visit the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore is currently a 3-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The game will be televised nationally on the NFL Network and will be the latest of the three games played on Thanksgiving, starting at 8:20 p.m. (ET).

While the 49ers all but have the NFC West locked up at this point, they still have plenty to play for to try and secure a first-round bye and to keep pace with Green Bay for the conference’s top spot. Baltimore is currently tied with Pittsburgh at 7-3 atop the AFC North, and would much prefer winning the division to starting the playoffs on the road as a wild card yet again.

San Francisco (9-1) not only has the second best record in the NFL at 9-1 SU, but also the league’s best record against the spread by a considerable margin at 9-0-1. The 49ers are 3-0 SU and ATS when they are an underdog on the road, picking up outright wins over Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Detroit.

With a 267-yard performance that included two touchdowns and just one interception in the rain last week against Arizona, Alex Smith added another confidence-building game to his resume. Surrounded by an elite running back in Frank Gore and an outstanding defense, Smith was considered by many to be the weak link of this team, but he’s slowly winning experts and fans over.

Going up against Baltimore’s stingy defense on the road will be a tough and interesting obstacle for Smith.

Baltimore (7-3) continued its Jekyll and Hyde act last week, picking up an impressive win over Cincinnati just one week after falling to the hapless Seattle Seahawks. All three of the Ravens’ losses have been ugly (Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle), but wins over Pittsburgh (twice), Houston and Cincinnati suggest that this team is still among the best in the NFL.

All three losses came on the road; at home, Baltimore is 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith has helped the Ravens get their inconsistent offense going a bit. Smith had six catches for 165 yards and a touchdown last week, and hauled in the game-winning catch against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. If Smith can continue to stretch the field as a deep threat, it should help open up more running lanes for Ray Rice moving forward.

Thursday night’s matchup will mark the first time in NFL history that two brothers, John and Jim Harbaugh, have faced each other as NFL head coaches, a fitting storyline on Thanksgiving. It will also mark the first time since 1975 that a team has traveled three time zones on a short week for a Thanksgiving game; a strain that could work against San Francisco this week.

In a game between two defensive teams, the total has been set fairly low at 38 ½. Interestingly, Baltimore is 7-2-1 on the ‘over’ this season despite its defensive make-up.

A rainy early part of the week should give way to a nice, but chilly, evening in Baltimore. Forecasters are calling for clear skies and the thermometer in the low-50s for kickoff.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:05 AM

Thanksgiving Day Trends

November 21, 2011

Trends for Detroit-Green Bay

The Lions have dropped seven straight on Thanksgiving
Detroit has seen the 'under' go 6-3 in the last nine on Thanksgiving
Green Bay has gone 5-3 on Thanksgiving, with a 4-2 record against Detroit
The Packers have watched the 'over' go 5-3 in their eight holiday games

Trends for Dallas-Miami

Dallas owns a 27-15-1 record on Thanksgiving Day
The last five wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double digits
Miami has gone 4-1 on Thanksgiving Day, with a 3-1 record against Dallas

Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:08 AM

Thanksgiving slate is best in decades

November 22, 2011

After so many years of bad Detroit Lions teams - and their games, no matter the week, meaning so little - all of a sudden that traditional Turkey Day contest in the Motor City is no turkey at all.

Detroit, which is 7-3, hosts the reigning Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers, who are 10-0, to open a tremendously compelling three-game NFL feast Thursday.

The always-polarizing Dallas Cowboys (6-4) host the Miami Dolphins (3-7) next in a matchup between two teams on three-game winning streaks, and the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) are at the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at night in the Harbaugh Bowl, the first time two brothers will face each other as head coaches in the league.

A case can be made that these are the three most intriguing NFL games of the week. It certainly qualifies as the most enticing Thanksgiving Day lineup in decades.

``That's good. Good for the NFL, good for the fans, good for the people,'' Minnesota Vikings linebacker Erin Henderson said. ``Something entertaining to watch while we all stuff our faces with that good food.''

Not convinced this is a special tripleheader?

Consider:

-The six teams are 42-18, which translates to a .700 winning percentage. The last time the holiday's NFL participants boasted that strong a combined win-loss record was 1975 (also .700).

-It's the first Thanksgiving since 1998 - when there were only two games - that each club in action won its previous game.

-The Packers are the first unbeaten team to play on the fourth Thursday in November since the 1962 Packers also were 10-0, before losing to Detroit. Including the playoffs, Green Bay has won its last 16 games in a row.

-San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh will match wits with his older brother, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh, in a game for family bragging rights - and with significant playoff-seeding implications.

-Even the game that was shaping up as a dud, Miami at Dallas, now becomes worth watching, because the Dolphins are the only team in NFL history to go from 0-7 to 3-7 and present a real challenge to the recently resurgent Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo (who, by the way, is 18-2 with 49 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions for his career in November).

-The lineup includes four teams with at least a share of first place (Green Bay, San Francisco, Baltimore and Dallas), two who can clinch a playoff berth this week (Packers, 49ers), and one with the inside track for a wild-card berth (Detroit).

Give the Lions credit for helping boost the anticipation for this year's Thanksgiving games, because they sure deserve a lot of the blame for the holiday's NFL blandness of late.

``Heck, there even was talk about moving that game out of Detroit - I thought it was sacrilegious talk - because Detroit hadn't been very competitive on those days on national TV. So the thinking was, `Hey, let's spread it around to other cities,''' said NFL Network analyst Steve Mariucci, who coached the Lions from 2003-05.

``And I think that talk went away, thankfully, because it needs to be in Detroit forever,'' he added. ``And they're really competitive right now.''

Only two other times in the past 50 years - yes, 50 years! - did the Lions arrive at Thanksgiving at 7-3, in 1993 and 1969, according to STATS LLC. You have to go all the way back to 1962 to find them with a better record (8-2) at this point in the season.

Each of the past two years, they were 2-8. That was an improvement from 2008, when the Lions were 0-11, on their way to 0-16.

And while Detroit has lost a franchise-record seven consecutive games - by an average of more than 20 points - in its annual showcase, there is reason to believe they can make things interesting this time around.

``From what it's been in the past to now, it's different. For us to be doing as good as we're doing right now, it's real exciting. Then we've got Green Bay coming in - the big, 10-0 Green Bay,'' said Detroit defensive lineman Corey Williams, who used to play for the Packers.

``It's going to be fun. It's going to be like a mini-Super Bowl, I think, atmosphere-wise,'' Williams said.

Plus, this particular trio of games gives fans a chance to see some of the sport's most dynamic players: Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, putting together one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB; Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh; San Francisco's can't-be-run-on defense, led by Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

For other NFL teams, there's work to be done Thursday, practicing and preparing for their next games. Then they'll go home and turn on the television.

``I might get a little peek at John and Jim going at it. I think that'll be entertaining,'' St. Louis Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said. ``We'll certainly get the players out of here early, and the coaches as soon as we can after that, and I'll follow.''

---

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:10 AM

Ravens' Lewis still hopes to play vs. 49ers

November 22, 2011

OWINGS MILLS, Md. (AP) - Baltimore Ravens middle linebacker Ray Lewis hasn't abandoned hope of returning from a foot injury in time to play Thursday night against San Francisco.

Lewis missed Sunday's game against Cincinnati, ending his streak of playing in 57 straight games.

The 36-year-old veteran did not talk to the media on Tuesday but said in a statement that he is ``taking every opportunity to get treatment on my foot to prepare to play on Thursday.''

He watched Sunday's game from the sideline, cheering his teammates and offering encouragement. He would prefer not to do so again Thursday night when the Ravens (7-3) face the 49ers (9-1).

Lewis says as a team leader, ``it doesn't sit well with me to be on the sidelines.''

Lewis leads the Ravens with 68 tackles.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:12 AM

Broncos cut quarterback Kyle Orton

November 22, 2011

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Kyle Orton has gone from Jay Cutler's replacement to Tim Tebow's backup to the unemployment line.

The Broncos released the 29-year-old veteran quarterback Tuesday, six weeks after benching him following a 1-4 start.

``I spoke with Kyle earlier today and thanked him for everything he did for the Broncos. He was a true professional throughout this season. I've got a great deal of respect for him as both a player and as a person,'' coach John Fox said in a statement.

``This was the right decision for our football team. We feel good about our quarterback group, and this gives Kyle an opportunity to help another team and showcase his talents.''

Orton shouldn't stay unemployed for long.

Although he's a vested veteran with seven NFL seasons under his belt, Orton is subject to the waiver rules because he was released after the trade deadline. If another team claims him, it will be responsible for about $3 million in salary, which is what remains of his roughly $9 million contract for 2011. If nobody claims him, he'll be free to sign with anybody.

Two intriguing possibilities are the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans. Both are in the thick of the playoff race at 7-3 but have problems under center, and another potential destination is AFC West rival Kansas City.

Cutler broke the thumb on his right throwing hand last weekend and might miss the rest of the regular season. His backup is Caleb Hanie. The Bears visit the Broncos on Dec. 11.

Matt Schaub of the Texans is out for weeks with a right foot injury and he's been replaced by previously underachieving Matt Leinart.

Matt Cassel hurt his throwing hand in the Chiefs' 17-10 loss to Denver on Nov. 13 and had season-ending surgery the next day. His replacement, Tyler Palko, threw three interceptions in his first start, a 34-3 loss at New England on Monday night.

John Elway, the Broncos' executive vice president of football operations, called Orton an ``absolute pro,'' and said he decided against keeping him on the roster through the remainder of the season.

``We thought it was best for the Broncos at this time as well as for Kyle to catch on with a different team,'' Elway said. ``Kyle is going to have more options in the NFL. He'll get an opportunity to play somewhere else, and we wish him the best of luck.''

The Broncos didn't announce a corresponding roster move, but one possibility was the promotion of rookie quarterback Adam Weber from the practice squad.

Orton was acquired in 2009 in the Cutler trade with the Bears and he won his first six starts in Denver before going 6-21. He passed for 3,000-plus yards in each of his first two seasons in Denver after spending his first four seasons in Chicago.

The Broncos tried to trade Orton after the NFL lockout ended in July but talks with Miami broke down and Fox threw open the quarterback competition, something for which Tebow proved ill-prepared.

Orton decisively outplayed Tebow in training camp for a second straight season but he turned ordinary when the games started to count, turning the ball over nine times and losing a string of winnable games and the organization's confidence.

Orton's slide hit bottom Oct. 9 when he went 6 for 13 for 34 yards in the first half against the Chargers and threw his seventh interception, tied for most in the league at the time.

Fox sent in Tebow to start the second half and after a slow start, the former Florida star sparked a listless offense to within a last-gasp pass of coming back against San Diego.

``I'm disappointed with everything,'' Orton said at the time. ``I wish I could have played better, I wish we had a better record, I wish a lot of things, but the reality is what it is.''

The next day, Fox pulled Orton aside before team meetings and informed him he had decided to go all-in on Tebow.

Orton pledged to be a good teammate and stay ready in case his number was called again, but Tebow has gone 4-1 with the Broncos tailoring their offense to his unique skill set and reintroducing the option to the NFL.

When the Broncos were walloped by the Lions in Tebow's second start, Brady Quinn leapfrogged Orton as the primary backup and appeared close to getting his shot under center. But Fox stuck with Tebow, albeit with the caveat that it was a week-to-week proposition.

Since then, Tebow has won all three of his starts and engineered fourth-quarter comebacks against the Raiders and Jets to go with his miracle in Miami, when he led the Broncos back from a 15-point deficit in the closing minutes for a win in overtime.

On Monday, Elway said on his weekly radio show, however, that he wasn't sold on Tebow as the long-term answer at quarterback, saying the second-year pro has to become a better passer and improve on third downs.

Tebow is completing just 44.8 percent of his passes and Denver was 1 for 11 on third downs last week before its game-winning, 95-yard touchdown drive that stunned the Jets 17-13.

Several teammates said Orton was anything but a cancer in the locker room in recent weeks, even though it had become obvious he was biding his time until his first foray into unfettered free agency as a healthy QB in his prime and with a .500 record as a starter.

Yet, his demotion did create some awkward moments. He kept his captainship after losing his starting job and would help lead the team during warm-ups before watching the less accurate but more mobile Tebow take the bulk of the snaps during the week.

Orton was still held in high esteem in the Broncos locker room, especially by veterans such as Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman, who said at the time of Orton's benching that they felt he was being unfairly singled out as the reason for the team's bad start.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:14 AM

Books survive and look ahead

November 21, 2011

While most of us are looking forward to spending time with family and eating great food over the Thanksgiving weekend, Las Vegas sports book directors take a deep breath before the first game Thursday and hope by the time the late game is over that the liability heading into the rest of the weekend is manageable.
From Thursday through Monday, the books will have a five-day stretch of activity that can make it one of the toughest on the revenue sheets. Unlike a regular weekend schedule of Saturday and Sunday games that culminate with a Monday matchup -- a game that is routinely a 4-way loser for the books because of weekend liability -- the sports books now have the added pressure of hoping to skate through Thursday’s and Friday’s games.

The ultimate hope for the sports books is to beat at least three of the six major decisions on Thursday’s NFL games, which more than likely includes beating the favorites.

Recreational bettors come from all over to get a part of what has become a tradition on Thanksgiving, having a little action on the games. Most of these players like the reward of betting a little to win a lot which is why they parlay. The popular play is always the favorites to the OVER.

“I think the real key to any successful Thanksgiving for us is to beat the OVER’s,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’re fortunate this season that we have a competitive Lions team along with Miami playing some great football lately and then in the late game with the Harbaugh brothers going head-to-head, I think we can expect great two-way action there.”

Osborne did concede that despite Detroit and Miami playing well, the public is still going to be on two of their weekly favorites, the Cowboys and Packers. However, he still likes the numbers.

“Usually we get a couple of large favorites for the two early games and then the late game is a mismatch,” said Osborne, who opened the Packers -5 ½, Cowboys -7 and Ravens -3 ½. “That's not the case this year, we've got some great matchups which gives us a fighting chance."

Should all those favorites come in for the public with all three of the OVER’s getting there, it will start a chain reaction of events that begin with having one of their worst individual days of the season on top of having massive risk heading into Friday’s college games.

“We’ve had a couple of those Thanksgivings before and it’s like a snowball effect where the liability just gets bigger and bigger each day, with 5 and 6-team parlays just waiting to hit on almost every game posted the next few days because of the live tickets from Thursday,” said Osborne.

Regardless of how many games the sports books win on Thursday, there is still going to be that chain reaction of liability, but it’s always nice to get off to a winning start on the first day and then worry about the other days as they come knowing that Monday is still going to be a lose-lose situation.

Sports Books Survive Sunday

The sports books were able to survive last Sunday’s NFL games despite not getting much support from the underdogs. Although their two biggest wins of the day did come from the Buccaneers (+14) who played it close at Green Bay in a 35-26 loss and the Seahawks (+3) winning outright at St. Louis, 24-7.

The Seahawks, Raiders (+2) and Eagles (+7) were the only underdogs to win on the day, not counting Denver’s 17-13 victory last Thursday night against the Jets. Overall, the favorites went 5-6-2 with not a lot of big decisions on straight bets, but just enough losses in parlays and teasers to make the day very unspectacular and a wash.

The gateway to success for many teaser players across town was Dallas (-7 ½) getting the chance to kick the game winning field goal in over-time for a 27-24 win after Washington had just missed one. In addition to Dallas, the popular 6 and 7-point teasers on the day included the Packers (-14), 49ers (-9 ½), Ravens (-7) and Falcons (-6).

Fearless Turkey Selections

Look for the Packers to take advantage of the Lions mistakes and make them pay before they can get back into the game like they did last week. Packers 34 Lions 20

The Dolphins have been playing a terrific brand of football and will give Dallas all they can handle. Taking the points here should get the money. Cowboys 21 Dolphins 20

The 49ers have to travel back east for the fifth time this season. They’ve won the previous four, but this one will be too much to ask. Ravens 27 49ers 16

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:19 AM

Tech Trends - Week 12

November 22, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 24 (12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Lions covered both vs. Pack LY, but GB now on 16-0 SU and 12-4 spread uptick. Lions "over" 16-8-2 since 2010. Lions have dropped last seven Thanksgiving games at home. Slight to "over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

Thursday, Nov. 24 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Unlike Lions, Cowboys have covered last five at home on Thanksgiving. But Cowboys still only 2-12 vs. line as chalk since LY. Sparano 20-8 vs. line last 28 on road (3-2 TY), Dolphins also "under" 9-1 TY. Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Thursday, Nov. 24 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SF 9-0-1 vs. line (4-0 away), also "under" 3-1 on road. Slight to 49ers, based on recent trends.

Sunday, Nov. 27 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Last seven "under" in series. Rams "under" 11-4 last 15 since late 2010. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Bills wobbling with no wins or covers last 3 TY, Bills 0-3 SU and vs. line against Jets since LY and not closer than 16 any of those games. NY only 5-8 last 13 as chalk since early LY but the win and cover streak vs. Bills now at four straight. Jets, based on series trends.

Browns on 3-15 spread slide since mid 2010. Cincy only 2-10 vs. line as home chalk since '09, however. Bengals, based on Browns' woes.

Houston on 4-game cover streak TY. Jacksonville "under" 9-1 TY, Houston "under" 6-4 in 2011. "Under" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

Cam 1-2 as chalk TY and Panthers just 1-3 in role since LY. But winless Indy no covers last six this season. Panthers, based on team trends.

Bucs only one cover last 4 away after 10-1 mark last 11 away prior to recent road spread slump. Titans, however, only 1-3 against points last four at home. Slight to Bucs, based on extended road marks.

Vikings just 4-9 against points on road since LY. Falcons "under" 3-8-1 last 11 reg.-season games. Slight to Falcons and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Nov. 27 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders only 1-3 vs. line last 4 at home TY. Bears on 5-0 spread run at moment. Raiders "over" 8-4 last 12 at home. Bears and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Pete Carroll 7-1 last 8 on board in 2011. Shan "under" 7-3 TY and "under" 13-4 last 17 since mid 2010. "Under" and Seahawks, based on Shan "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 27 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Belichick 9-3 vs. line away since LY. Belichick also "over" last week vs. Jets and maybe back on "over" trend after "under" previous three. Patriots "over" 21-7 last 28. "Over" and slight to NE, based on "totals" and team trends.

Tall order for Tebow as Broncos 0-4 SU and vs. line last 4 in series though Tebow almost rallied Denver in first meeting. Tebow 4-1 SU as starter and vs. line in 2011, although Denver now trending "under" last two after long "over" stretch prior. Norv no covers last 5 TY, 2-8 vs. spread in 2011. Broncos, based on recent trends.

Sunday, Nov. 27 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chiefs only 3-6 vs. points last 9 at home, also "under" 8-3 last 11 since late LY. Steelers have covered last two on road TY after dropping first three vs. spread away. Slight to Steelers and "under," based on Chiefs' trends.

Monday, Nov. 28 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Home cooking has worked for Saints TY, 4-0 SU and vs. line as host. But Note Tom Coughlin 22-8 last 30 as dog. Slight to Giants, based on extended Coughlin dog mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:23 AM

Inside the Numbers - Week 12

November 22, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 24 (12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

GB: 7-2 ATS L9 away
GB: 4-1 ATS L5 at DET
DET: 10-3 ATS L13 home
DET: 6-3 ATS L9 vs division

Thursday, Nov. 24 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

MIA: 17-7 ATS L24 away underdog
MIA: 5-2 ATS L7 vs NFC
DAL: 5-0 ATS L5 Thanksgiving
DAL: 3-8 ATS L11 home favorite

Thursday, Nov. 24 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

SFO: 5-2 ATS L7 vs AFC
SFO: 6-3 ATS L9 away
BAL: 4-7 ATS L11 off division game
BAL: 7-3 ATS L10 home vs non-division

Sunday, Nov. 27 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

ARZ: 1-7 ATS L8 vs division
ARZ: 4-8 ATS L12 away underdog
STL: 3-11 ATS L14 overall
STL: 6-14 ATS L20 vs division

BUF: 2-5-1 ATS L8 away
BUF: 3-8 ATS L11 vs division
NYJ: 3-5 ATS L8 off loss
NYJ: 8-4 ATS L12 vs division

CLE: 2-5 ATS L7 vs division
CLE: 7-4 ATS L11 off win
CIN: 2-10 ATS L12 home favorite
CIN: 5-1 ATS L6 vs opp off win

HOU: 4-7 ATS L11 away
HOU: 1-4 ATS L5 off bye
JAX: 5-3 ATS L8 home
JAX: 5-2 ATS L7 home vs division

CAR: 2-8 ATS L10 away
CAR: 3-7 ATS L10 vs AFC
IND: 2-8 ATS L10 home
IND: 3-5 ATS L8 vs NFC

TB: 3-9-1 ATS L13 vs AFC
TB: 2-9 ATS L11 off away loss
TEN: 6-3-1 ATS L10 vs NFC
TEN: 5-7 ATS L12 home

MIN: 4-2 ATS L6 off home loss
MIN: 3-7-1 ATS L11 away underdog
ATL: 6-3-1 ATS L10 home favorite
ATL: 8-4 ATS L12 off AFC game

Sunday, Nov. 27 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

CHI: 5-3-1 ATS L9 vs AFC
CHI: 6-3 ATS L9 away underdog
OAK: 6-1 'under' L7 home vs NFC
OAK: 4-1 ATS L5 off away win

WSH: 2-4 ATS L6 away vs non-division
WSH: 5-10-2 ATS L17 off home loss
SEA: 5-2 ATS L7 home favorite
SEA: 3-6 ATS L9 off division game

Sunday, Nov. 27 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

NE: 4-2 ATS L6 away vs NFC
NE: 5-1 'under' L6 off Monday game
PHI: 1-6 ATS L7 off ATS win
PHI: 2-5 ATS L7 home

DEN: 4-2 ATS L6 away underdog
DEN: 4-8 ATS L12 vs division
SDG: 3-5 ATS L8 home vs division
SDG: 1-5 ATS L6 off away loss

Sunday, Nov. 27 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

PIT: 4-1 ATS L5 off bye
PIT: 1-5 ATS L6 away vs non-division
KC: 6-0 ATS L6 off away game
KC: 4-1 ATS L5 home underdog

Monday, Nov. 28 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

NYG: 4-6 ATS L10 away underdog
NYG: 5-2 ATS L7 away vs non-division
NOR: 7-1 ATS L8 home favorite
NOR: 5-1 'over' L6 off bye

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:26 AM

Week 12 Preview: Packers at Lions

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-0)

at DETROIT LIONS (7-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5.5, Total: 55.5

Detroit is hoping to end two long streaks on Thanksgiving Day when it hosts Green Bay. The Packers have won 16 straight games and the Lions have suffered seven straight losses (SU and ATS) on the November holiday.

The Lions haven’t come within 11 points in any of their Thanksgiving defeats. But the good news is that Green Bay allowed 455 yards of offense to Tampa Bay last week while the Lions hung 49 points on Carolina. Also, they beat the Packers at home in a defensive struggle last year, 7-3. That game gets an asterisk because QB Aaron Rodgers left with a concussion late in the first half, but the Lions had held him to 46 passing yards and no points when he left, and third-string QB Drew Stanton was the Lions’ starter. Both of these teams have been highly profitable bets over the past two seasons, as Green Bay is 20-10 ATS (67%) and Detroit is even better at 18-6 ATS (75%). And the Lions are a stellar 14-5 ATS (74%) against NFC teams over this same span. The Packers may win a tight game, but expect DETROIT to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide this pair of three-star trends supporting the Lions:

DETROIT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 24.9, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season. (33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

Green Bay is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 meetings with Detroit, and Rodgers has been a big part of that with 262 passing YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in his six career games in this series. And nobody has been better than Rodgers this season, or possibly ever, as he has thrown for 317 passing YPG with 31 TD and just 4 INT. With the Packers’ top running back, James Starks, questionable with a sprained knee, Green Bay might not be able to take advantage of Detroit’s 27th-ranked run defense (135 YPG allowed).

Although Rodgers is playing on another level, the Lions are fifth in the NFL in passing defense (193 YPG) and tied for second in the league with 15 interceptions. If their front four can put the pressure on Rodgers, Detroit has enough playmakers to ruin Green Bay’s Thanksgiving. The Lions have done a great job creating turnovers recently with 12 takeaways in the past five weeks.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is coming off a monster game against Carolina, throwing for 335 yards and 5 TD. However, he also threw two interceptions, giving him six in the past two games. Stafford also threw four picks the only time he faced Green Bay in 2009. And considering the Packers defense leads the league with 19 interceptions, Stafford must make smart decisions throwing the football. But the Packers have been exposed in the passing game all year, allowing the second-most yards in the NFL (289 passing YPG).

The Lions won’t likely have top RB Jahvid Best (concussion) back on the field, but they will have Kevin Smith who is coming off a brilliant performance against Carolina. Smith rushed for 140 yards on just 16 carries (8.8 YPC) and caught four passes for 61 more yards, reaching the end zone three times. Smith has not found a lot of running room against Green Bay in the past though, gaining just 248 yards on 74 carries (3.4 YPC) with one touchdown in five career meetings with the Pack, all ending in Detroit losses.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:28 AM

Week 12 Preview: Dolphins at Cowboys

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-7)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 44

The Dolphins seek their fourth win in a row when they spend Thanksgiving in Dallas, winners of three straight.

Miami has three consecutive double-digit wins, beating its opponents by a hefty 86-20 margin during the win streak. And over the past two years, the Dolphins have played better football on the road than at home—they’re 8-5 ATS (62%) outside of Miami over the past two seasons. Dallas has a habit of playing down to its opponent, as evidenced by the team’s 3-12-1 ATS record (20%) as a favorite over the past two years. The pick here is MIAMI to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Dolphins:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Miami has played nine straight games Under the total and this three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the UNDER on Thursday:

MIAMI is 38-13 UNDER (74.5%, +23.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 17.0, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*).

The Dolphins recent surge has much to do with QB Matt Moore making a number of big plays. He was 14-of-20 for 160 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in last week’s 35-8 trouncing of Buffalo. The Cowboys have used some creative defensive looks under first-year coordinator Rob Ryan, and they’ve managed to confuse opposing offenses on several occasions. But Miami has been balanced on offense, out-rushing three of their past four opponents with the duo of Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. Bush has been able to rack up some huge gains in three career games versus Dallas, rushing for 8.4 yards per carry and adding nine catches for 154 yards (17.1 avg). Dolphins star WR Brandon Marshall had only one reception last week, but he expects to bounce back against a Dallas secondary still missing starting cornerback Mike Jenkins (hamstring).

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving Day, and they have the offense to exploit a suspect Miami pass defense, even with their best receiver shelved in Miles Austin (hamstring). With their lack of quality depth in the secondary, the Dolphins will have trouble matching up against a multi-faceted Cowboys passing attack that saw five players catch at least three passes in last week’s overtime win in Washington. QB Tony Romo threw for 292 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT against the Redskins, giving him a 69% completion rate, 841 passing yards (280 YPG), 8 TD and 0 INT during the three-game win streak. Romo needs another big afternoon considering the Dolphins have been so stingy against the run, allowing just 276 yards (69 YPG) on 3.0 yards per carry in the past four games. DeMarco Murray is having a huge rookie season (747 rushing yards, 6.0 YPC), but was held to 73 yards on 25 carries (2.9 YPC) last week.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:30 AM

Week 12 Preview: 49ers at Ravens

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-1)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 38.5

The Harbaugh brothers will spend Thanksgiving together as John Harbaugh’s Ravens host Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers on Thursday night.

The Niners just keep paying out. They’re 9-0-1 ATS in 2011, and that in and of itself is a five-star FoxSheets Power Trend (average score has been San Francisco 25.6, Opponent 14.5). The Ravens, meanwhile, have repeatedly shown up unprepared, letting games slip away to Seattle and Jacksonville, and nearly getting upended by Arizona in Week 8 and Cincinnati last week. LB Ray Lewis (toe) may miss a second straight game, which would be bad news against the 49ers’ power running game. And San Francisco’s elite defense should have little trouble shutting down erratic QB Joe Flacco. Take underdog SAN FRANCISCO as the pick here.

The FoxSheets provide another trend steering bettors away from the Ravens:

Play Against - Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (134-84 since 1983.) (61.5%, +41.6 units. Rating = 2*).

San Francisco makes no secret of the fact that they want to run, run, run, and the Ravens could be in for a long night with LB Ray Lewis (toe) questionable after having missed the game against the Bengals. The Ravens had held six straight opponents to less than four yards per carry, before Cincinnati was able to reach that mark on Sunday (119 yards on 30 carries). Niners RB Frank Gore has been bothered by a knee injury in the past two weeks, but he has been a beast on the road this year, averaging a hefty 6.3 yards per carry. Rookie backup Kendall Hunter has also been successful rushing the football with a strong 4.4 YPC average. If the 49ers have to throw the football, QB Alex Smith has proven he is capable, carrying a 93.9 QB rating (7th-best in NFL) with 13 TD and 4 INT. San Francisco takes great care of the football with a league-low-tying nine turnovers this season, and has posted a stellar +9 turnover margin in the past four games. However, Baltimore leads the AFC with 21 takeaways on defense.

The Ravens have been tough at home this year, and Flacco has been much more comfortable there (7.6 YPA at home, 5.9 YPA on road). He’s at least capable of making plays against a 49ers pass defense allowing 249 YPG (23rd in NFL). Rookie WR Torrey Smith (20.3 yards per reception) has really come on strong in the past few weeks, racking up a season-high 165 yards last Sunday against Cincinnati. And although the Niners lead the league in rushing defense (74 YPG), Baltimore RB Ray Rice remains one of the NFL’s most unique playmakers. Rice has a pedestrian 237 rushing yards in the past four weeks, but has scored six rushing TD and added another 176 yards receiving in this span. For the year, Rice has 1,176 total yards and 10 touchdowns.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2011, 01:32 AM

Week 12 Preview: Bears at Raiders

CHICAGO BEARS (7-3)

at OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 46

Chicago goes for its sixth consecutive win when it travels to Oakland, but it won’t be easy to keep the streak alive without its starting quarterback.

Jay Cutler was playing the best football of his Bears career, but a broken thumb has knocked him out for at least six weeks. Backup Caleb Hanie, who has thrown just 14 passes in the regular season in his career, gets the start. Although he has a great running back to rely on in Matt Forte, the Bears have rushed for only 202 yards on 3.0 YPC in the past two games, while Oakland has 353 yards on 4.3 YPC in this same span, winning both of these contests on the road. In the past two years, the Raiders are 9-2 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, giving more ammunition for underdog OAKLAND to win on Sunday.

This pair of FoxSheets trends gives two more reasons to fade the Bears:

CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS (9.1%, -10.0 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 11.2, OPPONENT 30.0 - (Rating = 2*).

CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS (20.0%, -13.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 19.0, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 2*).

The Bears have played three straight games Over the Total, and this five-star FoxSheets trend expects the OVER to occur again on Sunday.

Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (67-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.7%, +49.4 units. Rating = 5*).

Oakland also lost its starting QB Jason Campbell (collarbone) last month and his replacement, Carson Palmer, is slowly getting comfortable with his new offense. After completing less than half of his passes with 6 INT in his first two starts, Palmer has connected on 72% of his attempts with 3 TD and just 1 INT in his past two games. He could have a big afternoon against Chicago’s weak pass defense that is allowing the third-most yards in the league this year (271 YPG). The Raiders have also been without their best offensive player, RB Darren McFadden, for the past four weeks as he has battled a foot injury. But Michael Bush has been a stellar backup with 461 rushing yards in these four games. He’ll be tested though against a strong Bears run-stop unit surrendering just 101 YPG (10th in NFL). The Chicago defense has had success bottling up speed, scoring a comfortable road win over the Eagles in Week 9 and hammering the Lions at home two weeks ago.

Hanie nearly led the Bears back in last year’s NFC Championship loss to Green Bay, finishing 13-of-20 for 153 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. Hanie could have success targeting WR Johnny Knox who is coming off his best game of the year (3 rec, 97 yds, 1 TD). RBs Matt Forte and Marion Barber should be a handful for a Raiders defense that’s been unable to stop the run (132 YPG, 5.2 YPC). Forte has amassed 1,391 total yards this year, and has carried the ball more effectively on the road (5.5 YPC) than at Soldier Field (4.6 YPC). He will get another huge workload with Cutler sidelined. Both defenses have been quite opportunistic in recent weeks, as Chicago has forced 15 turnovers in the past four games while Oakland has seven takeaways in its past two contests.

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The Bum's NFL Thanksgiving Week Best Bets 11/24-11/28 !

The Bum's NFL Thanksgiving Week Best Bets 11/24-11/28 !

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