The Bum's NCAAF Week # 13 Best Bets 11/22-11/26 !

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia fits solid system

November 21, 2011

When U.S. space shuttle Apollo 17 returned safely to earth on Dec. 19, 1972 after landing on the moon, it was the sixth and last Apollo mission in which humans walked on the lunar surface.

Safe to say that after over 300 hours of elapsed time, the performance of the spacecraft was excellent for all aspects of the mission.

The Apollo program totaled 17 missions in all and included the only 12 humans to have ever set foot on another solar system body. Total funding of the Apollo program was $20.4 billion dollars, which by today’s government bailout standards appears to be a bargain.

In the world of college football, teams returning home for a season ending conference affair with a crew of 17 or more returning starters have been especially adept in these games when seeking revenge as they have logged a 34-21-2 (62%) against the spread record in these games since 1990 provided they are not taking on angry foe off a straight up favorite loss in its last game.

Closing out this year’s campaign we find two teams preparing for splashdown.

Dec. 3 -- New Mexico State vs. Utah State

Nov. 26 -- Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

Better yet, if they own a .400 or greater record they improve to 26-9-1 ATS (74%). With that you can eliminate the Aggies from the list above to find this year’s qualifier.

And best of all, if these same .400 or greater teams average 130 or more rushing YPG on the season they rocket to 22-3 ATS (88%) in these games, winning 19 of the 25 games in straight-up fashion.

Look for Virginia to put the final wraps on a job well done as they make a successful landing this Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

Rivals Texas and Texas A&M square off Thursday

TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-4)
at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (6-5)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -8.5

Two in-state rivals meet for the last time as Big 12 foes when No. 25 Texas travels to College Station on Thanksgiving Day to take on Texas A&M.

Both teams are struggling mightily. Texas has scored a total of 18 points during a two-game losing skid, and Texas A&M has dropped three of its past four contests, with two of those losses coming in overtime. Both teams are also banged-up on the offensive side of the ball. Longhorns top RBs Malcolm Brown (toe) and Joe Bergeron (hamstring) played at less than 100 percent last week, RB Fozzy Whittaker (knee) is out for the season, and now starting WR Jaxon Shipley is questionable with a knee injury. But the Aggies could also be missing their top two RBs, as Christine Michael (knee) is done for the season and Cyrus Gray (shoulder) is questionable to play on Thursday. Gray’s potential absence is especially key, since he rushed for 223 yards in last year’s 24-17 win in Austin. Although the Longhorns are 8-3 SU in this series since 2000, the Aggies are 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the past six meetings, and Kyle Field will be louder than ever as the 12th Man crowd bids farewell to Texas and the Big 12. The pick here is TEXAS A&M to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Aggies.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - in conference games, off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival. (62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +32.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas freshman QB David Ash has 0 TD and 6 INT in his past five games, and is expected to lose his starting job to Case McCoy, who has not thrown a single interception in 78 pass attempts this year. McCoy should start since he is listed first on the depth chart, but the two signal callers have alternated time since preseason starter Garrett Gilbert was benched and subsequently transferred. Although the Texas passing game is poor (182 YPG, 96th in nation), there is no FBS pass defense worse than Texas A&M, which is surrendering a nation-high 292 passing YPG. The Longhorns are much more adept in rushing the football (224 rushing YPG, 15th in nation) with a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, but the Aggies front seven has been stingy, allowing just 108 rushing YPG (15th in FBS) and a paltry 2.7 yards per carry (5th in nation).

Even with the injuries to their running backs, the Aggies still have a highly superior passing attack. QB Ryan Tannehill is 11th in the nation in total offense (315 total YPG), leading his team to 294 net passing YPG (15th in FBS). Tannehill has thrown 2+ TD passes in six straight contests, totaling 19 TD and 6 INT in this stretch. WR Ryan Swope has scored in four consecutive games, catching 34 passes for 410 yards in this span. Senior WR Jeff Fuller is also having a solid year (56 rec, 602 yds, 4 TD), and has lit up the Longhorns for five touchdown grabs in three career meetings against them. On the defensive side of the ball, A&M has been abusing opposing backfields with a nation’s best 3.7 sacks per game while averaging 7.8 Tackles For Loss (8th in nation). Texas has allowed 2.2 sacks per contest (T-80th in FBS), which could make for a long day for the Longhorn QB duo.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Arkansas and No. 1 LSU clash Friday

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (10-1)
at LSU TIGERS (11-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -13

No. 3 Arkansas brings its seven-game win streak to Baton Rouge to face unbeaten No. 1 LSU.

The Razorbacks have won their past three games by a combined 137-52 score, but they have been shaky on the road, getting crushed by Alabama and barely beating Ole Miss and Vanderbilt by a combined eight points. LSU has allowed a total of 53 points in its past seven games (7.6 PPG), and is winning at home by an average score of 42 to 8. But Arkansas won the past four meetings (3-1 ATS), including a 31-23 victory last year, and the Tigers are a woeful 9-30 ATS (23%) in November games since 1992. The Razorbacks are also mourning the death of TE Garrett Uekman, who died last Sunday of unknown causes, and they will try to win this one for their fallen teammate. LSU will likely win this game and move onto the SEC Championship, but ARKANSAS will keep the final score within 10 points.

This pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Razorbacks.

ARKANSAS is 12-1 ATS (92.3%, +10.9 Units) off 1 or more straight Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARKANSAS 38.9, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 4*).

LSU is 8-29 ATS (21.6%, -23.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992. The average score was LSU 27.0, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson has been tremendous during the win streak, throwing for 2,208 yards (315 YPG), 14 TD and just 2 INT in the seven victories. Senior WR Jarius Wright is closing out his excellent collegiate career in style, piling up 428 yards and 4 TD over the past four games, gaining at least 90 in all four contests. TE Chris Gragg will provide a valuable dump-off option when LSU brings the pressure, and the junior is coming off a career-best game last week against Mississippi State (8 rec, 119 yds, 1 TD). But the Razorbacks aren’t simply a pass-happy offense. They have achieved a healthy balance of pass and run, gaining 168 rushing YPG over the past six contests. Junior RB Dennis Johnson has 493 yards (7.7 YPC) and 3 TD in the past five games. Arkansas will need everybody to play well if it is to thrive against the nation’s No. 2 defense in both scoring (10.0 PPG) and yardage (248 YPG).

LSU’s defense gets most of the credit for the team’s success, but it diminishes the pressure when it knows the offense can score. Arkansas (39.3 PPG) is the only SEC team with more points than LSU (37.9 PPG). The Tigers are also winning games with the turnover battle, as they lead the nation with a +1.6 TO margin per game (24 takeaways and 6 giveaways). One of the reasons they have been able to keep mistakes to a minimum is that LSU has three players that carry the football regularly. Spencer Ware leads the school with 650 yards (4.0 YPC), but Michael Ford (625 yards, 5.9 YPC) and Alfred Blue (445 yards, 6.4 YPC) are also strong runners. Ware and Ford have 7 TD, while Blue has six scores. This RB trio has taken the pressure off the senior QB time share of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. Jefferson has also seen an increased role under center, completing 21-of-31 passes for 323 yards and 2 TD in the past three weeks. Jefferson and Lee have combined to throw 18 TD and just 3 INT on the season, but Arkansas has a strong pass defense allowing just 196 YPG (28th in nation).

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: College football rivalries

The end of the regular season is the most telling time for college football teams. They’ve had an entire season to evolve into the teams they’ve become, and, unlike bowl season, they’re not coming off an extended layoff. But most importantly for many teams, they’re gearing up for a traditional rivalry game, the kind of matchup they’ve had circled since the day the schedule came out. And that means neither side is about to have a letdown.
Here’s a look at recent trends in some of the biggest matchups coming up over the remainder of the regular season…

Pittsburgh at West Virginia (Friday)
The Backyard Brawl has gone to the dogs of late. Dating back to Pitt’s monstrous upset of the Mountaineers in 2007, the underdog has not only covered but won SU in each of the past four matchups in this series.

Ohio State at Michigan (Saturday)
College football’s biggest rivalry has belonged to the Buckeyes over the past decade, as Ohio State has won nine of 10 against Michigan SU, including seven in a row. OSU has also gone 10-3 ATS against the Wolverines since 1998. The favorite has won seven of the past nine ATS, and the road team has covered in four of the past six.

Alabama at Auburn (Saturday)
Last year’s Iron Bowl provided Cam Newton’s Heisman moment, with the superstar QB leading Auburn’s stunning comeback win in Tuscaloosa. This year doesn’t figure to go nearly as well for the Tigers, who have fallen back to the pack with Newton gone. Auburn has fared very well ATS in recent years though, covering against Alabama five of the past six years. The total has also gone Under five straight, and eight of the past 10 years. While the Tigers have lost SU two of the last three times they’ve hosted ‘Bama, they’ve covered each time.

Georgia at Georgia Tech (Saturday)
The Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry has belonged to the road team as far as the spread is concerned. The visiting team has covered 11 of the past 13 years, and Georgia has won SU and ATS the last five times they’ve traveled west to Atlanta. The Bulldogs have the overall bragging rights as well, winning nine of the past 10 meetings while going 7-3 ATS. The underdog has covered each of the past three seasons, as well as nine of the past 14.

Oregon State at Oregon (Saturday)
Oregon has emerged as the clear-cut kings of Oregon football, and it figures to cruise to a second straight win in the Civil War. But the road team has covered each of the past five seasons in this matchup, and the underdog covered in four of those five matchups. Not surprisingly considering the strength of these offenses in recent years, the total has gone Over in eight of the past nine years.

Washington State at Washington (Saturday)
The Huskies have re-taken control of this rivalry the past two years, and have now won 9 of 13 SU and eight of 11 ATS over their in-state rivals. The away team has also fared well in the Apple Cup, covering in five of the past seven games.

Florida at Florida State (Saturday)
This game doesn’t have the kind of luster it had when the programs were consistent national title contenders, but the rivalry remains heated nonetheless. Including the 1997 Sugar Bowl, the favorite has covered in 13 of the past 17 meetings, and the home team has covered five of the last six times. That includes three blowout wins for the Gators the last three times they played in Gainesville (combined score of 116-29). The total has gone Under in eight of the past 10 meetings.

UCLA at USC (Saturday)
The Bruins have been the weaker sister in Los Angeles for years now, and it’s shown in their annual meeting with Southern Cal. USC has won 11 of the last 12 SU, and they’re also 8-4 ATS in those meetings. The total has gone Under in each of the past five years.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (December 3)
BCS title game implications may no longer apply, but Oklahoma State’s regular season could have a happy ending if it could snap an eight-game SU losing streak to Oklahoma in the Bedlam Series. The Sooners have also won six straight over the Cowboys ATS. This series has also been good to favorites, who are 10-5 ATS since 1996.

Army vs. Navy (December 10)
This series has belonged to Navy, as the Midshipmen have won nine in a row SU, going 7-2 ATS during that span. If you go back to 2001, the last time Army was favored in this game, the favorite has covered in eight of the past 10. The total has gone Under each of the past five years.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Arkansas at LSU...U of A has brought its "A" game in SEC series, covering 4 straight (including 2 upsets). Hogs 8-4 as DD dog since 2005 (2 losses vs. Bama). Six of last 8 in series have gone "over."

Rutgers at CONNECTICUT...Resurgent Big East contender Rutgers has turned the tables in series, winning/covering last 3 after 0-4-1 vs. spread in previous 5. In LY's 27-24 home win, Knights kicked game-winning 34-yd. FG with :13 left.

Florida State at FLORIDA...FSU has dropped 6 of past 8 in "The Swamp," including 3 straight by avg. 29 points. Florida had season-high 4 TOs in LY's 31-7 torching.

Georgia at GEORGIA TECH...Streaking UGA has won 9 of past 10 in series (6-3-1 vs. spread). Dawgs' record-breaking QB Aaron Murray looked like Aaron Rodgers in LY's 42-34 home triumph, completing 15 of 19 for 271 yds. & 3 TDs.

Tennessee at KENTUCKY...UT on 26-game series win skein, including 14 straight in Lexington. Vols 7-2 vs. spread last 9 vs. UK; Cats 4-8 vs. spread last 12 vs. SEC foes.

East Carolina at MARSHALL...Triple-revenger Marshall needs victory here to become bowl elgible for just second time since 2004. ECU not "bowling" for first time since 2005. check result.

Ohio State at MICHIGAN...Michigan itching to snap frustrating 7-game losing streak in the "Big Game." Wolverine QB Denard Robinson especially amped for rematch after completing just 8 of 18 for 87 yards in 2010 vs. Ohio State.

Ole Miss at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Rebels only 4-13 vs. spread last 17 on board, including LY's 31-23 setback in the "Egg Bowl." MSU managed to pile up 498 yds. despite surprisingly subpar performance by star RB Ballard, who had season-low 43 YR.

Eastern Michigan at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Visitor has covered 9 of past 10 in MAC series. EMU desires to regain respect after 71-3 home series bludgeoning LY.

Michigan State at NORTHWESTERN...NW still haunted by LY's come-from-ahead 35-27 setback in Evanston. Wildcats roared to 17-0 lead before MSU stormed back behind QB Kirk Cousins, who completed 29 of 43 for 329 yds. & 3 TDs. Spartans outscored Cats 21-3 in 4th Q, producing 2 TDs in final 2 minutes.

Oregon State at OREGON...In LY's "Civil War," Oregon had 37-13 lead before allowing "meaningless" TD with 1:18 left. U of O 20-12 vs. spread last 32 at Auzten Stadium. Eight of last 9 in series have gone "over."

Clemson at SOUTH CAROLINA...CU in double-revenge mode in heated rivalry. Tigers' sizzling soph QB Tajh Boyd excited for rematch after failing to produce points after he relieved struggling starter Kyle Parker in LY's 29-7 setback in "Death Valley."

Louisville at SOUTH FLORIDA...Louisville in revenge mode following LY's 24-21 OT home loss vs. USF. Cards' backup QB J. Burke (3 TDs) admirably filled in for injured starter Adam Froman, who was out with injury. But L'Ville couldn't overcome back-breaking 100-yd. KO return, which narrowed deficit 14-10 right before halftime.

Ucla at SOUTHERN CAL...USC is 11-1 SU (8-4 vs. spread) vs. hated crosstown rival UCLA. Trojans led 28-7 LY before UCLA punched in face-saving TD with :23 left. Last 5 in series have easily gone "under," with avg. combined score of only 33 points!

Rice at SMU...Hooting Owls have been wise investment in old SWC rivalry, posting an 8-1 spread mark last 9 vs. SMU. Last 5 in series have gone "over."

Memphis at SOUTHERN MISS...Resilient USM has covered 6 straight in reg.-seas. following SU loss, while meandering UM hasn't covered consecutive games all year.

San Diego State at UNLV...Rebels have played with a lot of cause in Sam Boyd Stadium, registering a sizzling 8-1 spread mark vs. FBS foes since 2010.

Pitt at WEST VIRGINIA...Pitt out for blood after LY's 35-10 loss in the "Backyard Brawl" (Panthers worst home loss since 2001). Pitt has covered 4 straight as dog TY.

Troy at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Fast-rising WKU geeked to capture first series victory (Toppers 0-8-1 alltime). LY's tilt was tied in 4th Q before Troy scored twice in 7-minute period to pull out 28-14 home series victory.

Penn State at WISCONSIN...Badgers usually end reg-season with a bang in Camp Randall, recording 15-4 spread mark in home finales since 1991.

Houston at TULSA...Undefeated BCS-seeking UH in payback mode following LY's 28-25 series setback. Cougars' record-breaking QB Case Keenum eager for rematch after missing LY due to early-season ACL injury. UH's third-string QB Piland threw 5 ints. in 3-point loss.

Vanderbilt at WAKE FOREST...Ascending Vandy looking to settle a score with Wake Forest after absorbing 34-13 home loss in LY's finale. With sidelining injury to then-starting QB Larry Smith, Commodores were forced to go with seldom-used backup QB Jared Funk, who lived up to his last name by completing only 27 of 61 with 2 interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Aggies Bid Big 12 And Longhorns Farewell

Thursday's matchup at Kyle Field comes 50 years and one day after the first time I witnessed the Texas Aggies and Texas Longhorns go at each other on the gridiron. Standing at the south end of the stadium with my dad following Texas' 25-0 win, a disappointed kid with tears streaming down his face, my grandfather approached us and asked me what was wrong.

"We lost, grandpa," I blubbered.

He just smiled and chuckled, "That all depends on who we are."

It was a tough lesson in life, discovering there were – Gasp! – Longhorns in my family. That same grandfather, in a last-ditch attempt to dissuade me from attending A&M, would later tell me that the only women who went to Texas A&M were "corn-fed gals looking for their Mrs. degrees." He was at least happy when I married a Longhorn, perpetuating the family's division of loyalties.

There will be a little sadness again this week, win or lose, when the two old rivals meet for the final time as conference opponents. The Aggies are heading to the SEC next season and Texas has told them it will be 2019 before the series can resume, so bragging rights for quite some time are on the line.

The folks in charge of setting the college football betting lines feel those bragging rights will belong to Texas A&M who opened as an 8½-point favorite.

Bragging rights is about all that is on the line in this contest. Both teams have the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility, but just barely with both schools suffering disappointing seasons. The outcome might mean a slightly more prestigious game, but we may be talking about the difference between the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx to the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston.

No team in college football has been more disappointing than the Aggies. Ranked No. 8/9 in the two preseason polls, and No. 10 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, Texas A&M has blown its chance to be part of the BCS discussion by coughing up four double-digit leads in the second half to account for all but one of the five losses.

It's almost unthinkable that A&M needed last Saturday's 61-7 romp past Kansas to become bowl eligible. Thirty-two point favorites at home over an extremely poor Jayhawks squad, the victory snapped a three-game losing streak for the Aggies and was just the third winning ticket for their backers against the spread this season.

Every facet of the game deserves blame in A&M's shortcomings. Ryan Tannehill has been directing an A&M offense that ranks among the leaders in just about every category, but turnovers have come at critical times and the unit has come up short when outcomes were on the line. The defense deserves its fair share of the blame, getting some credit for facing a strong offensive conference but also still unable to make that one extra stop required to win a contest.

Mike Sherman and his coaching staff are guilty as well. The Aggies have played one of the toughest schedules this season, but the talent is definitely there for Sherman, and the second-half collapses are inexcusable.

Mack Brown and Texas can still have a solid season despite the disappointment from the last two weeks. After climbing to 16th in the BCS with a 52-20 cruise over Texas Tech in Week 10, the Longhorns have dropped a 17-5 decision at Missouri and 17-13 home defeat to Kansas State most recently. Texas will finish up in a week at Baylor, so closing out an 8-4 campaign with road wins over the Aggies and Bears would make for a good rebound from last year's 5-7 squad that missed the bowl season.

The offense has been a Jekyll & Hyde unit this season, ranking 48th nationally by averaging over 405 yards per game and the bulk of that distance on the ground (223.8 YPG). Those numbers have been reduced dramatically the past two games in which the offense has averaged under 280 yards and scored just one touchdown in consecutive losses to Missouri and Kansas State.

Quarterback has been the most-troubling position, beginning the year with Garrett Gilbert before moving to the duo of David Ash and Case McCoy. The unit could still be without guard Sedrick Flowers (shoulder) and receiver Jaxon Shipley (knee) who are both questionable for Thursday's contest.

The Aggies are also dealing with a couple of injuries and could be especially thin in the backfield. Leading rusher Cyrus Gray, who went over the 1,000-yard mark in last week's win, is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Christine Michael was lost for the season with a knee injury suffered in the loss at Oklahoma a couple of weeks back, and was just a yard short of 900 when he was hurt. It would leave a heavy burden on sophomore Ben Malena if Gray is unable to answer the bell.

Several factors favor A&M, starting with the Aggies having a superior offense and a defense that will be facing a much weaker offense than the likes of Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Still, the stats reached getting to this matchup won't mean a thing in this one.

Forget home-field advantage for one time at Kyle Field. Yes, if all the Aggies yell at once, they will make more noise than the Texas fans. But this is going to be an emotional, high-energy game on both sides, and the teams have swapped beating each other on their own fields the past two seasons. Winning in College Station hasn't exactly been a problem for Texas who leads the all-time series 75-37-5 heading into this 118th meeting.

Weather should not factor in the battle that kicks off at 8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN. The College Station forecast for Thanksgiving evening calls for mostly clear skies, temps in the mid-to-upper 60s at start and very little wind.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas at Texas A&M

November 23, 2011

Matchup: Texas (6-4, 3-4) at Texas A&M (6-5, 4-4)
Venue: Kyle Field (Natural Grass)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 24
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: Texas A&M -7.5, o/u 53.5
No question in my mind that this is the best week in college football’s regular season. From the Border War to the Backyard Brawl, the Civil War to the Egg Bowl, the Iron Bowl to the Apple Cup – this week is chock full of great rivalries. (By my count, there are 15 of them and I’ll have a selection with key analysis on each and every one in my Friday and Saturday picks this week).

Although it doesn’t have a catchy name, the Texas/Texas A&M rivalry is right up there when it comes to great college rivalries. (According to Wikipedia, some people call this game the “Lone Star Showdown” but I had never heard that) Hopefully, Texas A&M’s move to the SEC – or any other conference realignment - won’t bring an end to this great game or any of the other storied rivalries.

It’s been an up and down year for the Texas Longhorns. Coming off a very disappointing 2010 season which saw the ‘Horns finish 5-7, the pressure was on coach Mack Brown to get things headed back in the right direction. And yes, Texas has improved from last year, but the rabid Longhorn fan base is far from satisfied.

Brown’s program bolted out of the gates 4-0 and it looked like Texas was back to being a Top 20 team. And while some of those initial wins came against decent programs – BYU, UCLA, Iowa State – the Longhorns clearly weren’t up to the challenge when it came to the meat of their Big 12 schedule. More specifically, the Texas offense wasn’t ready to keep up in the weekly shootouts with the big boys in its conference.

After that 4-0 start, Texas has dropped four of its last six games. Setbacks to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Kansas State all had a familiar refrain. They often weren’t that close – the average margin of defeat was 16.5 points – and Texas had problems scoring points – they averaged 15 points a game in those four losses.

The struggles on offense can be traced back to one central problem, one that has yet to be solved. Texas doesn’t have a solid starting quarterback and is still flip-flopping between two players – never a good sign. There is true freshman David Ash, who has flashed great potential at times this year but has also shown that he is far from a polished college player. Even more worrisome, Ash seems to be struggling more as the season goes on and he's only completed only 20 of 45 passes for 197 yards in the last two games – both losses (Missouri and Kansas State).

Then there is sophomore Case McCoy – younger brother of Texas legend Colt McCoy. Primarily due to the struggles of Ash, McCoy has gotten a chance this year but has rarely looked up to the task. For instance, in the loss to Mizzo, McCoy was just 3 of 7 for 13 yards. Even Tim Tebow has better passing stats than that!

The issue at QB has slowed down the entire Texas offense and in the Big 12, where the scoreboard operator is typically very busy, the Longhorns just can’t keep up. Coach Brown said earlier this week that Ash and McCoy will split snaps in practice this week in order to figure out who gets the start against the Aggies. I’m sure that news is a confidence builder for the Longhorn faithful.

As much as the Longhorn offense has disappointed, the defense has over-performed. Considering that Texas has faced four of the top 15 offenses in the country and is still ranked 10th in the country in total defense tells you just how good this unit is. By my estimation, this Longhorns defense is definitely one of the top five in the country and make no mistake, if Texas wants to win this edition of the “Lone Star Showdown,” the defense must again carry the day.

Slowing down the Aggies is no easy task – certainly not in 2011. Texas A&M has the sixth ranked offense in the land and has only scored less than 28 points one time all year (25 vs. Oklahoma). The one piece of good news for the ‘Horns is that Texas A&M running back Cyrus Gray could miss this game after sustaining a stress fracture in his left shoulder against Kansas. Most reports have hime listed as 'out' but he could still be a game-time decision. Without Gray, the Aggies would have to turn to sophomore Ben Malena or freshman Will Randolph, neither having much experience at all.

That said, even if Gray can’t play, the Aggies offense still has plenty of weapons. QB Ryan Tannehill continues to pile up the yards – he is now over 3,000 passing yards in 2011 – and with targets like WR Ryan Swope, might not miss much of a beat without a solid running game.

While Texas is 75-37 all time vs. the Aggies, this rivalry has been very close over the past 40 years, with Texas holding a 21-19 record in that time frame. Lately the Aggies have been on top, winning three of the past five, including a 24-17 win in 2010.

Betting Notes


Texas is 5-5 against the spread
The Longhorns are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road
The ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 for Texas this season
Texas A&M is 3-8 against the spread
The school has gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home
All three wins were by double digits
The Aggies have watched the ‘over’ go 7-4, which includes a 3-2 mark at home
The road team has won four of the last six in this series
The last two meetings in College Station saw 88 and 68 combined points posted, both ‘over’ winners

[StarDust Bum]

Rivals Texas and Texas A&M square off Thursday

TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-4)
at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (6-5)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -8.5

Two in-state rivals meet for the last time as Big 12 foes when No. 25 Texas travels to College Station on Thanksgiving Day to take on Texas A&M.

Both teams are struggling mightily. Texas has scored a total of 18 points during a two-game losing skid, and Texas A&M has dropped three of its past four contests, with two of those losses coming in overtime. Both teams are also banged-up on the offensive side of the ball. Longhorns top RBs Malcolm Brown (toe) and Joe Bergeron (hamstring) played at less than 100 percent last week, RB Fozzy Whittaker (knee) is out for the season, and now starting WR Jaxon Shipley is questionable with a knee injury. But the Aggies could also be missing their top two RBs, as Christine Michael (knee) is done for the season and Cyrus Gray (shoulder) is questionable to play on Thursday. Gray’s potential absence is especially key, since he rushed for 223 yards in last year’s 24-17 win in Austin. Although the Longhorns are 8-3 SU in this series since 2000, the Aggies are 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the past six meetings, and Kyle Field will be louder than ever as the 12th Man crowd bids farewell to Texas and the Big 12. The pick here is TEXAS A&M to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Aggies.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - in conference games, off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival. (62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +32.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas freshman QB David Ash has 0 TD and 6 INT in his past five games, and is expected to lose his starting job to Case McCoy, who has not thrown a single interception in 78 pass attempts this year. McCoy should start since he is listed first on the depth chart, but the two signal callers have alternated time since preseason starter Garrett Gilbert was benched and subsequently transferred. Although the Texas passing game is poor (182 YPG, 96th in nation), there is no FBS pass defense worse than Texas A&M, which is surrendering a nation-high 292 passing YPG. The Longhorns are much more adept in rushing the football (224 rushing YPG, 15th in nation) with a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, but the Aggies front seven has been stingy, allowing just 108 rushing YPG (15th in FBS) and a paltry 2.7 yards per carry (5th in nation).

Even with the injuries to their running backs, the Aggies still have a highly superior passing attack. QB Ryan Tannehill is 11th in the nation in total offense (315 total YPG), leading his team to 294 net passing YPG (15th in FBS). Tannehill has thrown 2+ TD passes in six straight contests, totaling 19 TD and 6 INT in this stretch. WR Ryan Swope has scored in four consecutive games, catching 34 passes for 410 yards in this span. Senior WR Jeff Fuller is also having a solid year (56 rec, 602 yds, 4 TD), and has lit up the Longhorns for five touchdown grabs in three career meetings against them. On the defensive side of the ball, A&M has been abusing opposing backfields with a nation’s best 3.7 sacks per game while averaging 7.8 Tackles For Loss (8th in nation). Texas has allowed 2.2 sacks per contest (T-80th in FBS), which could make for a long day for the Longhorn QB duo.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M -7.5 500

Texas A&M - Under 54 500

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 13

November 23, 2011

This is the final week of Big Ten play and that means its rivalry week. Ohio State meets Michigan in "The Game" while Nebraska and Iowa play the first annual "Heroes Game." However, the biggest game on the schedule is not a rivalry matchup, it's a winner-take-all game in the Leaders division as Wisconsin meets Penn State with a trip to Indianapolis on the line. There aren't a lot of heavy favorites this week as Vegas is leaning towards close games in some heated rivalries. ASA takes a look at the inside scoop on every Big Ten matchup this weekend.

FRIDAY

Nebraska (-9.5) vs. Iowa - 12:00 PM EST, ABC

NEB: 8-3 SU, 3-8 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 17-45
IOWA: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, W 31-21

There's not a whole lot at stake in the first "Heroes Game," but this game will determine initial bragging rights moving forward in this new annual rivalry game. Iowa will play its second straight road game after finally notching its first road win of the season last week in a 10-point victory at Purdue. The Huskers need to protect their home turf to avoid finishing 8-4 in what would be a disappointing first season in the Big Ten.

Nebraska suffered its second humiliating road loss of the season last week in a 28-point defeat at the hands of Michigan. The Huskers had turnovers, special team's gaffes, and penalties in a miserable performance. They return home this week to try and save some face against Iowa in a game that should determine decent bowl position. QB Martinez is much better at home than he's been on the road this season. In six home games, he's averaging 175 pass yards per game (60%) with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while also rushing for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns (152 YPG, 51%, 3 TD, 3 INT, 252 rush yards and 2 rush TD on the road).

Iowa's offense should be able to score in Lincoln behind QB Vandenberg (23 touchdowns, 5 interceptions), RB Coker (#2 B10 with 1,297 rush yards and 14 TD), and WR McNutt (74 receptions, 1,240 yards, 12 touchdowns). Nebraska's defense allowed 418 yards and 45 points against Michigan last week and has been vulnerable to strong offenses this season.

Something to consider: Nebraska has won six straight home finales by an average of 20 points per game. Iowa is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.

SATURDAY

Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. Penn State - 3:30 PM EST, ESPN

WISC: 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 28-17
PSU: 9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, W 20-14

Wisconsin had its worst offensive output of the season last week in Illinois with just 285 total yards and 28 points. The Badgers were down 17-7 at halftime but held the Illini scoreless in the second half to set up a Leaders Division winner-take-all game here against Penn State. These two haven't met since 2008 but the favorite has covered six straight in the series (PSU has covered last two by 35 & 24 points, respectively).

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll find out Saturday. Wisconsin's offense ranks 12th nationally in yards per game and 5th nationally in points per game and hasn't been held below 28 points this season. Penn State ranks 8th in yards allowed per game and 3rd in points allowed per game and hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points this season.

PSU is in a tough position, playing its third straight emotional game after head coach Joe Paterno was let go. The Nittany Lions had a close home loss to Nebraska, won at Ohio State, and now have a B10 Championship semifinal here at Wisconsin. It will be difficult for the Nittany Lions to match the output displayed the previous two weeks.

Something to consider: Penn State is 4-0 away from home this season, but Wisconsin is 49-4 straight up at home since 2004 (31-19-3 ATS). The Badgers are 14-4-2 ATS the last 20 home finales and are 8-2 ATS as a conference favorite the last three years.

Michigan (-8) vs. Ohio State - 12:00 PM EST, ABC

MICH: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, W 45-17
OSU: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 14-20

For the first time in a long time, 'The Game' will have no impact on the Big Ten Champion. Neither team can win its division, but Michigan is still playing for a potential shot at a BCS at-large bid with only two losses. For the first time since 2004, the Wolverines are favored as they look to end a seven game skid to the Buckeyes (OSU is 5-2 ATS during the streak and has won three straight in Ann Arbor).

Michigan notched a signature win with a dominating performance Saturday against Nebraska. QB Robinson and RB Toussaint combined for 221 rush yards and six total touchdowns. Michigan's ever-improving defense recorded three key takeaways and held Nebraska to just 11 first downs.

After OSU's big home win over Wisconsin on October 29th, the Buckeyes have dropped two of three and play overwhelmingly weak football. Offensively they are averaging just 23 points per game and 328 yards per game in the last three (1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS). QB Miller is averaging just 76 pass YPG (49%) and defenses are stacking the box to stop the rush because they realize Miller is unlikely to hurt them through the air. The Wolverines should do the same as they are allowing just 113 rush yards per game in Big Ten play.

Something to consider: Ohio State hasn't been more than a seven point underdog since the 2009 Fiesta Bowl against Texas (+8 and covered, losing 21-24). The Buckeyes are now 7-1 ATS their last eight games as an underdog (3-1 ATS this season).

Northwestern (+6.5) vs. Michigan State - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

NW: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 28-13
MSU: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 55-3

Michigan State assured itself a spot in the Big Ten Championship game with a definitive 55-3 beatdown of Indiana last week. The Spartans will try to avoid a letdown here as there aren't any stakes on this game considering they'll face either Wisconsin or Penn State next week in the B10 Championship. Northwestern, on the other hand, wants to enhance its Bowl profile with a big win here against MSU.

Credit Northwestern for bouncing back after a five-game losing streak put its season in jeopardy. The Wildcats have no reeled off four straight victories and are bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive year. This defense allowed over 35 points per game during the five game skid, but has allowed just 21 per game over the previous four.

Michigan State has now won three straight in this series. Last year, the Spartans fell behind 17-0 before outscoring the Wildcats 35-10 in the narrow eight point victory. MSU QB Cousins threw for 331 yards and 3 scores to lead the Spartans to victory. Northwestern is 5-2 ATS the last seven (but has only two straight up victories).

Something to consider: MSU is 7-1-1 ATS as an away favorite and Northwestern is 3-6 ATS as a Big Ten home underdog.

Indiana (+7.5) vs. Purdue - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

IND: 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 3-55
PUR: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Iowa, L 21-31

After last week's disappointing loss, Purdue has now followed all five of its wins with a loss this season. The Boilers committed four turnovers and racked up only 282 yards against Iowa and now must beat rival Indiana to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.

This season can't come to an end soon enough for the Hoosiers. They've now dropped eight straight games by an average margin of 18 points per game (42-18 average score). This defense ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category and hasn't held an opponent to under 34 points since October 1st. This is their final chance to record a win over an FBS opponent (only win came against FCS South Carolina State).

Purdue hasn't won on the road yet this season. They've dropped all four games by an average of 19 points per game. Last year the Boilers lost in overtime to the Hoosiers, just their second loss to Indiana in the past nine meetings. Purdue hasn't dropped back-to-back games to Indiana since 1993-94.

Something to consider: Indiana is 4-2 ATS as a conf home underdog last two years. Purdue is just 3-6 its last nine as a Big Ten road favorite, and this will mark the first occasion since 2009 (-3 at Indiana, W 38-21).

Minnesota (+10.5) vs. Illinois - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

MINN: 2-9 SU, 6-5 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, L 13-28
ILL: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, L 17-28

Illinois could go from a 6-0 start in the first half of the season to a 0-6 finish if it can't beat Minnesota on Saturday. Head coach Ron Zook likely needs a victory here to save his job, although a win here might not even do that. Minnesota has dropped three straight games after a promising win over Iowa in October 29th. Illinois is off of a grueling home loss to the Badgers (a game the Illini should have won) and it will be difficult to have a motivated performance here.

Minnesota allowed Northwestern to score three touchdowns on their first three possessions last week and were quickly disposed of by the Wildcats. Offensively this team is having difficulty developing any sort of consistency. The Gophers rank 110th in total offense and 113th in scoring offense. QB Gray leads the team in rushing, but struggles through the air, completing just 51% with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Something to consider: Minnesota beat Illinois, 38-34, as a 21-point underdog last season. The Gophers are now 6-1 ATS last seven meetings with Illinois.

[StarDust Bum]

Arkansas at LSU

November 24, 2011

With the college football world watching with keen interest Friday, top-ranked Louisiana State (11-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) will take on No. 3 Arkansas in a crucial SEC West showdown with national implications. CBS will provide television coverage at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops were listing LSU as a 12 ½-point favorite with a total of 52 ½. The number opened at 14 at most spots with the total at 52. Some books reduced the number on the side to as low as 11 ½ on Wednesday, but most shops were back up to 12 ½ on Thanksgiving Day.

Arkansas (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) is available on the money line for a lucrative plus-400 payout (risk $100 to win $400).

Les Miles’s team is unbeaten in five home games, winning in each contest by 28 points or more. With that said, due to extremely ‘chalky’ numbers, the Tigers are only 2-3 ATS at Tiger Stadium.

With the exception of its 9-6 overtime win at Alabama, LSU has won its 10 other games by 13 points or more. The Tigers average 37.9 points per game and only surrender 10.0 PPG.

LSU has a run-first offense with a powerful offensive line and a slew of talented backs. The best of those is sophomore Spencer Ware, who Miles is fond of describing as ‘a violent runner.’ Ware has rushed for a team-high 650 yards and seven touchdowns on 160 carries for a 4.1 yards-per-carry average.

Michael Ford is LSU’s most explosive running back, averaging 5.9 YPC. Ford has rushed for 625 yards and seven scores. Alfred Blue has rushed for 445 yards and six TDs on 70 carries for a 6.4 YPC average.

Jarrett Lee has been the starting QB for most of the season, throwing 13 TD passes compared to only three interceptions. However, Miles has gone back to Jordan Jefferson as his starter in recent weeks. Jefferson is a better runner, while Lee is the more polished passer.

Jefferson has completed 27-of-41 passes for 446 yards and four TDs without being intercepted. Jefferson has also run for 200 yards and a pair of scores.

LSU has one of the SEC’s top wide receivers in junior Rueben Randle, who has 39 receptions for 755 yards and eight touchdowns.

Bobby Petrino’s squad has won seven in a row since suffering its only loss of the season, a 38-14 setback at Alabama back on Sept. 24. The Razorbacks are 5-2 versus the number during this stretch.

Arkansas has struggled on the road, however, especially for our purposes. The Hogs are 0-3 ATS on the road and they needed second-half comebacks to win outright at Ole Miss and at Vanderbilt.

When Arkansas went to Oxford to face former head coach Houston Nutt, the Rebels raced out to a 17-0 lead in the first half. The Razorbacks eventually rallied to collect a 29-24 victory but never threatened to cover as 14 ½-point favorites.

Petrino’s team was extremely fortunate to escape Music City unscathed the following week. Vandy had a 28-20 lead late in the third quarter with a second-and-goal opportunity at the three yard line. But Zac Stacy coughed up a fumble and Jerry Franklin scooped it up and raced 94 yards to the end zone.

Nevertheless, Vandy was in the red zone at crunch time with several shots at the game-winning TD. The Commodores settled for a chip-shot field goal to force overtime, but it missed and Arkansas won a 31-28 decision.

Since then, the Hogs have cruised to three easy home wins both SU and ATS. They’ve beaten South Carolina (44-28), Tennessee (49-7) and Mississippi St. (44-17).

Just as I suggested at the VI Seminar back in August, junior QB Tyler Wilson has turned out to be an upgrade from Ryan Mallett. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,215 yards with a 21/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He has perhaps the best group of WRs in the country. Jarius Adams has made 61 receptions for 1,002 yards and 10 TDs. Joe Adams has 46 catches for 595 yards and three TDs.

With Knile Davis going down with a season-ending injury in August, Denis Johnson has become the go-to guy, especially of late. Johnson has rushed for a team-high 606 yards with a 6.7 YPC average. Ronnie Wingo also has big-play potential, but he’s not as much of a between-the-tackles runner. Wingo has rushed for 424 yards and three TDs.

The key to Arkansas pulling an upset begin with establishing balance with an effective running game. This will be especially difficult because nobody, not even Alabama and Trent Richardson, has been able to consistently run on John Chavis’s stop unit.

If (and it’s a BIG if) the Hogs can run the ball, it will set up play-action opportunities for Wilson, and it’ll make protecting Wilson easier for the UA offensive line. Wilson didn’t have any time to throw against Alabama and many feel that’ll be the story again in Baton Rouge.

Another key to the game is Arkansas stopping LSU’s ground attack. In that matchup, I give LSU a considerable advantage.

The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Hogs, 2-1 in their three true road assignments. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight for the Hogs and they have had at least 52 combined points scored in all of their games.

Totals have been an overall wash (5-5-1) for LSU, with the ‘under’ going 3-2 in its home games.

Arkansas has had the best of LSU in the head-to-head rivalry in recent years. The Hogs have won three of the last four games outright, taking the money in each instance. When they met in Fayetteville last year, Arkansas won by a 31-23 count as a 3 ½-point home favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Lots of upsets in The Game's 107 meetings

November 24, 2011

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - Being a favorite doesn't mean much whenever Ohio State and Michigan meet.

The history of this heated rivalry is littered with upsets and surprises.

No. 17 Michigan (9-2, 5-2) is hoping to grab a share of the Big Ten's Legends Division title on Saturday, and bolster its argument for a major bowl game. Ohio State (6-5, 3-4) has suffered through a difficult season shadowed by ominous NCAA sanctions, the loss of a 10-year head coach for breaking rules, injuries and more losses than any Buckeyes team in a decade.

In other words, don't count out the Buckeyes, who are seven-point underdogs.

The unexpected has happened repeatedly in The Game's storied 107 meetings.

Ohio State pounded Michigan 50-14 in 1968. It was late in that game, long after the outcome had been decided, when curmudgeonly Buckeyes coach Woody Hayes elected to try a 2-point conversion after a touchdown.

Asked later why he did it, he snarled: ``Because I couldn't go for three!''

While the Buckeyes racked up win after win the following season, things had changed at Michigan. A former Woody acolyte, Bo Schembechler, had taken over as coach. He pointed all season for the Buckeyes and his mentor.

Schembechler had signs placed all over Michigan's practice field with that gruesome score. In the locker room, he put up another sign reading, ``What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind can achieve. Those that stay will be Champions!'' The players had to look at those words every day.

``We knew we were going to win even though we were 18-point underdogs against the best college football team ever assembled,'' said Jim Brandstatter, then an offensive lineman for the Wolverines and now a radio voice for his alma mater's games. ``They hadn't lost in two years, were coming off a national championship and were the consensus No. 1 team.''

By the time their season-ending clash came along, the Wolverines came in with two losses and Ohio State was riding a 22-game winning streak. By grinding out yards on the ground and pouncing on turnovers - Barry Pierson had three of Michigan's six interceptions when the ground-oriented Buckeyes were forced to pass - the student's team beat the teacher's, 24-12.

At a dinner his former players had for him years later, Hayes got up to speak. Schembechler was in the audience.

``He looked down from the podium at me and said, `Damn you! You will never win a bigger game than that!''' Schembechler said with a chuckle. ``And he was right. I don't think I ever did.''

Five days before the 1987 game, also in Ann Arbor, Ohio State coach Earle Bruce was abruptly fired almost nine seasons into a successful tenure. Ohio State President Ed Jennings didn't give a good reason. Adding to the tumult, he also fired Athletic Director Rick Bay when Bay refused to fire Bruce.

A former Buckeyes player and another Hayes disciple, Bruce was not beloved by spoiled Ohio State fans who felt his 81-26-1 record just wasn't good enough. But public sentiment shifted in the wake of his firing. And his players remain devoted to him.

The Buckeyes were just 5-4-1 when they arrived in enemy territory, still in shock.

Just before the kickoff, Bruce was standing on the sidelines and turned to say something to an assistant when he noticed out of the corner of his eye that his players were wearing white headbands.

``I was going to tell them to get those headbands off,'' Bruce recalled. ``When I looked at them, I saw that they said `Earle' and then I thought I can't very well tell them to take them off.''

The Buckeyes pulled off a 23-20 stunner, and Bruce went to the Michigan locker room after the game to say goodbye to his close friend, Schembechler.

Bo looked up at Bruce and said: ``You know how I don't like losing. But, somehow, today I don't mind.''

In both 1995 and 1996, Ohio State rolled into the rivalry unbeaten, ranked No. 2 and on the verge of playing for a national championship. Michigan, with three losses already, had little to play for - except ruining the Buckeyes' season.

Before the 1995 game, Ohio State wide receiver Terry Glenn said, ``Michigan is nobody.'' But the nobodies won 31-23 behind a virtual unknown named Tshimanga ``Tim'' Biakabutuka, who piled up 313 yards on 37 carries to outplay Buckeyes Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George.

A year later, Michigan was a heavy underdog again for The Game at Ohio Stadium. But a short pass to Michigan wide receiver Tai Streets on a slippery field turned into a long touchdown and the Wolverines pulled off another shocker, 13-9.

Michigan had owned the series from 1897-1918, going 13-0-2 and winning by scores of 86-0, 34-0 and 40-0 - back when a touchdown was only worth four or five points.

Is it really a rivalry if only one team wins all the time?

In the days before the game was always the last one on the schedule, Ohio State was 3-0 in 1919 and Michigan had won its first two games by a combined score of 60-0 against Case and Michigan Agricultural College (now Michigan State University). The Wolverines had not permitted the Buckeyes to score a point in the three previous meetings and had outscored Ohio State 369-21 in the lopsided series.

But Chic Harley, Ohio State's first football star, changed all of that.

He scored on a 42-yard run for the game's only touchdown, punted 10 times for a 40-yard average and intercepted four passes in a 13-3 Buckeyes triumph.

It was only the first of many surprises to come in The Game.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Arkansas and No. 1 LSU clash Friday

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (10-1)
at LSU TIGERS (11-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -12, Total: 52

No. 3 Arkansas brings its seven-game win streak to Baton Rouge to face unbeaten No. 1 LSU.

The Razorbacks have won their past three games by a combined 137-52 score, but they have been shaky on the road, getting crushed by Alabama and barely beating Ole Miss and Vanderbilt by a combined eight points. LSU has allowed a total of 53 points in its past seven games (7.6 PPG), and is winning at home by an average score of 42 to 8. But Arkansas won the past four meetings (3-1 ATS), including a 31-23 victory last year, and the Tigers are a woeful 9-30 ATS (23%) in November games since 1992. The Razorbacks are also mourning the death of TE Garrett Uekman, who died last Sunday of a heart condition, and they will try to win this one for their fallen teammate. LSU will likely win this game and move onto the SEC Championship, but ARKANSAS will keep the final score within 10 points.

This pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Razorbacks.

ARKANSAS is 12-1 ATS (92.3%, +10.9 Units) off 1 or more straight Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARKANSAS 38.9, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 4*).

LSU is 8-29 ATS (21.6%, -23.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992. The average score was LSU 27.0, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*).

And this four-star FoxSheets coaching trend expects a high-scoring game to finish OVER the total:

Bobby Petrino is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a 2 game home stand as the coach of ARKANSAS. The average score was ARKANSAS 35.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson has been tremendous during the win streak, throwing for 2,208 yards (315 YPG), 14 TD and just 2 INT in the seven victories. Senior WR Jarius Wright is closing out his excellent collegiate career in style, piling up 428 yards and 4 TD over the past four games, gaining at least 90 in all four contests. TE Chris Gragg will provide a valuable dump-off option when LSU brings the pressure, and the junior is coming off a career-best game last week against Mississippi State (8 rec, 119 yds, 1 TD). But the Razorbacks aren’t simply a pass-happy offense. They have achieved a healthy balance of pass and run, gaining 168 rushing YPG over the past six contests. Junior RB Dennis Johnson has 493 yards (7.7 YPC) and 3 TD in the past five games. Arkansas will need everybody to play well if it is to thrive against the nation’s No. 2 defense in both scoring (10.0 PPG) and yardage (248 YPG).

LSU’s defense gets most of the credit for the team’s success, but it diminishes the pressure when it knows the offense can score. Arkansas (39.3 PPG) is the only SEC team with more points than LSU (37.9 PPG). The Tigers are also winning games with the turnover battle, as they lead the nation with a +1.6 TO margin per game (24 takeaways and 6 giveaways). One of the reasons they have been able to keep mistakes to a minimum is that LSU has three players that carry the football regularly. Spencer Ware leads the school with 650 yards (4.0 YPC), but Michael Ford (625 yards, 5.9 YPC) and Alfred Blue (445 yards, 6.4 YPC) are also strong runners. Ware and Ford have 7 TD, while Blue has six scores. This RB trio has taken the pressure off the senior QB time share of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. Jefferson has also seen an increased role under center, completing 21-of-31 passes for 323 yards and 2 TD in the past three weeks. Jefferson and Lee have combined to throw 18 TD and just 3 INT on the season, but Arkansas has a strong pass defense allowing just 196 YPG (28th in nation).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 11:00 AM ET Louisville +3.5 500
South Florida - Over 44.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 11:00 AM ET Northern Illinois -18 500
Northern Illinois - Under 65 500

Kent State - 12:00 PM ET Temple -17 500
Temple - Under 40.5 500

Bowling Green - 12:00 PM ET Buffalo -2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 53.5 500

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Nebraska -9.5 500
Nebraska - Under 53.5 500

Houston - 12:00 PM ET Houston -2.5 500
Tulsa - Over 76.5 500

Akron - 1:00 PM ET Western Michigan -27.5 500
Western Michigan - Under 60 500

Toledo - 2:00 PM ET Ball State +14 500
Ball State - Over 71.5 500

Arkansas - 2:30 PM ET Arkansas +11.5 500
Louisiana State - Over 53.5 500

Colorado - 3:30 PM ET Colorado +22 500
Utah - Over 48.5 500

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College +13.5 500
Miami - Under 44 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +6.5 500
West Virginia - Under 57 500

Texas El Paso - 7:00 PM ET Texas El Paso +10 500
Central Florida - Over 53 500

California - 10:15 PM ET California +6 500
Arizona State - Under 53.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Friday's best games

Houston is 11-0, 8-2 vs spread, covering last six games; they've held last three opponents to 17 or less points. Tulsa won its last seven games, 5-0 vs spread in last five; their three losses are all by 20+ points, but losses are to Boise State and the other two Oklahoma schools. Dogs covered five of last six series games, with Houston failing to cover last two tries as series favorite. Cougars have won two of last three visits to this site. Home underdogs are 5-10 vs spread in Conference USA this year.

Underdogs covered six of last eight Backyard Brawls, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points; this is last time this will be a conference game, with Pitt bolting for ACC. West Virginia won six of last nine vs Panthers, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 3-32-21 points. Four of last five Pitt games stayed under total; seven of last eight Mountaineer games went over. Big East home faves are 5-6 vs spread.

Arkansas beat LSU three of last four years; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Hogs' last seven visits here. That said, LSU is 8-2 vs spread this season, and in games they didn't cover, they won 35-7/42-9- they're 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 28-30-35-33 points. Arkansas won its last seven in a row; they're 1-1 as dogs, with only loss 38-14 at Alabama (+11). SEC double digit home favorites are 13-4 vs spread this year.

Arizona State just lost three close games in row, allowing 32.3 ppg; now they need win here and USC win over UCLA to get to Pac-12 title game. Cal Bears beat Sun Devils seven of last eight years, including 50-17 LY at home. Favorites covered five of last six series games. Cal lost rivalry game to Stanford last week; they're 1-3 as underdog this season. Pac-10 home favorites of 5+ points are 14-8 vs spread.