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**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 07:55 PM

Ohio seeks 5th straight win hosting Miami Ohio

MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS (4-7)
at OHIO BOBCATS (8-3)

Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio -7.5

Ohio University goes for its fifth straight win on Tuesday when it hosts a Miami Ohio team coming off two consecutive three-point losses.

The Bobcats have won the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with their in-state rival RedHawks, beating them by an average of 15.2 PPG during this series streak. Ohio has won these games by out-rushing Miami by a whopping margin of 1,159 to 415 over this five-game span, which averages out to 232 to 83 YPG. Bobcats star RB Donte Harden has done a good chunk of this damage with 183 yards (8.3 YPC) and 4 TD in two career games against the RedHawks. And considering Miami ranks last in all of FBS in rushing offense (75 YPG), it makes sense to expect this rushing discrepancy to continue. The pick here is for OHIO to win and cover.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Bobcats.

Frank Solich is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of OHIO. The average score was OHIO 31.8, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The RedHawks do not usually have success running the football, gaining just 117 yards on 54 carries (2.2 YPC) in the past two games. But QB Zac Dysert is no slouch, averaging 291 total YPG, third-most in the MAC. Dysert’s arm has really gotten a workout in the past five games, completing 126-of-172 passes (73%) for 1,638 yards (328 YPG), 15 TD and 6 INT. Dysert has struggled in his career against Ohio, throwing for 498 yards, 2 INT and 6 INT in two meetings. But WR Nick Harwell had a monster game against the Bobcats last year, catching 11 passes for 219 yards. Harwell has also been unreal in his past two games, grabbing 29 passes for 367 yards and 5 TD. Considering Ohio has allowed 594 passing yards in the past two weeks, Harwell should have another big night. Dysert has suffered from poor pass protection all year, as Miami has allowed the second-most sacks in the nation at 3.8 per game.

On defense, Miami has been much better since Toledo hung 49 on them in late October. The RedHawks are allowing just 16.0 PPG in the four games since. Miami’s pass defense has been very good (194 YPG, 25th in nation), but its run defense has been porous at times, allowing 163 YPG (68th in FBS).

Ohio ranks 20th in the country in rushing yards (211 YPG), but it can also throw the ball with QB Tyler Tettleton. The sophomore has thrown for 2,665 yards (242 YPG), and at least one touchdown in each of his 11 games this season. He has also scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games, giving him a total of 31 TD (23 passing, 8 INT), and only six interceptions this season. Senior WR LaVon Brazill had his four-game streak of 100+ receiving yards snapped last week at Bowling Green, but he still caught his 10th TD pass of the season.

Defensively, the Bobcats are pretty sound (343 YPG, 31st in nation) despite just 1.4 sacks per game (102nd in FBS). They created three Bowling Green turnovers last week, and will look to attack a Miami offense that has 12 giveaways in the past six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 07:59 PM

LSU And Alabama Emerge From Week 12 Rubble

Imagine it's Dec. 4 and the only conference champions with less than two losses on the season are the Virginia Tech Hokies and Houston Cougars.

Don't laugh; it could happen.

Upsets dominated the 12th week of the campaign with four of the top 7 teams in the BCS Standings going down in defeat. Once the new rankings are released later today, the SEC should dominate the BCS with LSU, Alabama and Arkansas running 1-2-3. Considering that conference has won the last five BCS Championships, perhaps we should've seen this coming.

The upsets meant a rough week for bettors backing top-ranked chalk as well. Three of the top 5 teams in the Don Best Linemakers Poll – Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Oregon – were upset and only two BCS top 10's covered spreads.

That logjam in the SEC, and the West Division specifically, could be solved this Friday when LSU hosts Arkansas. A win for the Tigers puts them into the SEC Championship against Georgia on Dec. 3, and knocks the Razorbacks out of any BCS consideration. An Arkansas victory would really create trouble, and I won't pretend to understand how a three-way tie for the division between LSU, Alabama and Arkansas would sort itself out.

It's possible that a Razorbacks win would send 'Bama to the SEC title tilt, assuming the Crimson Tide can take care of business next Saturday at Auburn.

If you're among the many today thinking it all points to an LSU, Alabama rematch for the BCS Championship, imagine that possibility with neither the Tigers nor the Crimson Tide being the SEC champs. Such a scenario might not be as farfetched as you might think.

There is a clause in the BCS selection procedures that allows for three teams from the same conference to take part in the BCS bowl games provided the two non-champions of that conference are ranked 1-2 in the standings. Georgia eventually taking the SEC title might still lead to Alabama and LSU being ranked in the top two BCS slots.

Oklahoma State still has a shot to prevent an all-SEC matchup for the BCS Championship. The Cowboys suffered their first loss of the season last Friday at Iowa State, dropping a 37-31 decision in double overtime to the Cyclones who closed as 26½-point underdogs. Oklahoma State will now have a week off before hosting Oklahoma on Dec. 3.

The Sooners are coming off their own upset loss, 45-38 at Baylor with the Bears getting 17 points from the oddsmakers. That defeat ended Oklahoma's BCS title hopes, but the Sooners can still earn at least a share of the Big 12 with wins this week at home vs. Iowa State and then in Stillwater vs. the Cowboys.

Oregon is still in control of the Pac-12, but the Ducks' 38-35 defeat vs. Southern Cal ended their BCS title hopes. Laying 15 at home to the Trojans, Oregon's rally just fell short after USC built a 38-14 lead late in the third quarter. The Ducks will be visited by Oregon State this Saturday, and just need to win to host the Pac-12 Championship the following week.

The Ducks' loss might have also gone a long way to sewing up an at-large BCS bid for Stanford, 31-28 winners against California this past week. The Cardinal didn't come close to covering the pointspread (17½) and will close out their regular season Saturday night at home vs. Notre Dame.

Remember the Big Ten? Gone from the BCS discussion for the most part since late-October, the conference heads into its final regular season week with half of the inaugural championship matchup decided. Michigan State stomped Indiana, 55-3, as 27-point chalk last Saturday to clinch the Legends Division. The Spartans will know who they're playing in Indianapolis on Dec. 3 once the outcome of this week's matchup between Wisconsin and Penn State is in the books.

Wisconsin (-14½) survived a slow start to win on the road at Illinois this past week, 28-17, while Penn State (+6) upset Ohio State in Columbus, 20-14.

Virginia Tech and Houston are both two wins away from BCS bowls. The Hokies (-9½) avoided the upset madness in Week 12 with a 24-21 triumph at home vs. North Carolina last Thursday, and now face a dangerous trip to Charlottesville to meet the Virginia Cavaliers. The winner will gain the Coastal Division crown and meet Atlantic Division winner Clemson for the ACC title (Dec. 3).

Houston (-19½) is coming off a 37-7 victory over SMU, the Cougars' sixth consecutive pointspread win. They'll be in Tulsa this week for a huge battle with the Golden Hurricane, the winner earning host rights to the Conference USA Championship Game the following week.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:01 PM

LSU And Arkansas In Clash Of BCS Giants

The undisputed Week 13 marquee matchup in college football takes place Friday in Baton Rouge where the BCS No. 1 LSU Tigers host the No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks.

LSU opened as big 14-point favorites, but has been quickly bet down to 12 ½-13 at Don Best. Kenny White is sending his total out at 54 and CBS will broadcast at 2:30 p.m. (ET) from a very loud Tiger Stadium.

The SEC has taken its dominance of the college ranks to a new level. Its members have already won the last five national titles and now hold the top-3 spots in the BCS, incredibly all from the SEC West Division. Alabama is currently second ranked.

LSU and Alabama also run 1-2 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, with Arkansas a bit further back at No. 8.

The Tigers are the only undefeated team from a major conference, with BCS No. 8 Houston still unblemished in Conference USA. Les Miles’ team is in the national title game with two more wins and could possibly make it with one loss, although they don’t want to find out.

LSU (11-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) easily handled Mississippi last Saturday, 52-3 as 30 ½-point road favorites. Starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson was a perfect 7-of-7 passing for 88 yards, but wasn’t needed much with a running game that racked up 353 yards.

Jefferson has had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory. He was suspended for the first four games before becoming Jarrett Lee’s backup. That scenario lasted five games until Lee’s shaky performance (24 passing yards, two interceptions) against Alabama. The Tigers still won 9-6, but Lee is now second string.

The 6-foot-5 senior Jefferson is by far the better scrambler and hasn’t thrown a pick yet, albeit in just 41 attempts. Of course, a lot of quarterbacks would look good guiding a team ranked 21st in the nation in rushing offense (219.5 YPG) and second in scoring defense (10 PPG).

Miles’ defense has been even more stifling in Baton Rouge (8.0 PPG). The ‘under’ is 3-2 in those games, with the offense scoring 42.4 PPG.

The Tigers are only 2-3 ATS at home this year, ranging from 14-49 point favorites. They’re just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a 10 ½-point home favorite or greater.

The Razorbacks (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) were ranked No. 8 in the BCS two weeks ago, but have snuck up on the field as teams ahead of them kept losing. They’ve won 7-straight (5-2 ATS) with their only loss September 24 at Alabama, 38-14 as 11-point ‘dogs.

Quarterback Tyler Wilson leads the nation’s 10th ranked pass attack (316.9 YPG). Receiver Jarius Wright has 1,002 yards, but three others have at least 441 yards and that doesn’t include the still dangerous Greg Childs, who has missed games with knee problems.

Wilson has the offense humming the last three weeks, home wins over Mississippi State (44-17), Tennessee (49-7) and South Carolina (44-28). The Mississippi State game last Saturday was played in the alternative home location of Little Rock. The ‘over’ is now 4-0 in the last four.

Dennis Johnson (606 yards) is the Razorbacks’ main runner, but it’s going to be very hard to run on LSU at home and they’ll have to live and die with the pass. They ran for just 17 yards on 19 attempts at Alabama and Wilson (185 passing yards) was not able to bail them out.

LSU wants to pound the ball, keeping possession of the clock and Wilson off the field. The Razorbacks are allowing 164.2 YPG on the ground (70th nationally), although have been better the last three at home (100.3 YPG). Bama ‘rolled’ up 197 yards on them on 39 carries.

Coach Bobby Petrino’s guys have only played three true road games, going 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU). The others were closer than expected wins at Vandy (31-28) and Mississippi (29-24). The 21.1 PPG allowed on the season is over double LSU.

Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in the last four games against LSU, including a 31-23 home win last year as 3 ½-point favorites. Ryan Mallett (320 passing yards) was the quarterback then, while Jefferson had 184 through the air.

The Razorbacks are also 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU) in the last three at LSU, with each decided by three points or less.

Running back Knile Davis (ankle) is listed as doubtful after missing the whole season. He had a great year last year for the Hogs with 1,322 rushing yards.

Baton Rouge weather is partly cloudy and temperatures in the 70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:03 PM

Texas Aggies Bid Big 12 And Longhorns Farewell

Thursday's matchup at Kyle Field comes 50 years and one day after the first time I witnessed the Texas Aggies and Texas Longhorns go at each other on the gridiron. Standing at the south end of the stadium with my dad following Texas' 25-0 win, a disappointed kid with tears streaming down his face, my grandfather approached us and asked me what was wrong.

"We lost, grandpa," I blubbered.

He just smiled and chuckled, "That all depends on who we are."

It was a tough lesson in life, discovering there were – Gasp! – Longhorns in my family. That same grandfather, in a last-ditch attempt to dissuade me from attending A&M, would later tell me that the only women who went to Texas A&M were "corn-fed gals looking for their Mrs. degrees." He was at least happy when I married a Longhorn, perpetuating the family's division of loyalties.

There will be a little sadness again this week, win or lose, when the two old rivals meet for the final time as conference opponents. The Aggies are heading to the SEC next season and Texas has told them it will be 2019 before the series can resume, so bragging rights for quite some time are on the line.

The folks in charge of setting the college football betting lines feel those bragging rights will belong to Texas A&M who opened as an 8½-point favorite.

Bragging rights is about all that is on the line in this contest. Both teams have the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility, but just barely with both schools suffering disappointing seasons. The outcome might mean a slightly more prestigious game, but we may be talking about the difference between the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx to the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston.

No team in college football has been more disappointing than the Aggies. Ranked No. 8/9 in the two preseason polls, and No. 10 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, Texas A&M has blown its chance to be part of the BCS discussion by coughing up four double-digit leads in the second half to account for all but one of the five losses.

It's almost unthinkable that A&M needed last Saturday's 61-7 romp past Kansas to become bowl eligible. Thirty-two point favorites at home over an extremely poor Jayhawks squad, the victory snapped a three-game losing streak for the Aggies and was just the third winning ticket for their backers against the spread this season.

Every facet of the game deserves blame in A&M's shortcomings. Ryan Tannehill has been directing an A&M offense that ranks among the leaders in just about every category, but turnovers have come at critical times and the unit has come up short when outcomes were on the line. The defense deserves its fair share of the blame, getting some credit for facing a strong offensive conference but also still unable to make that one extra stop required to win a contest.

Mike Sherman and his coaching staff are guilty as well. The Aggies have played one of the toughest schedules this season, but the talent is definitely there for Sherman, and the second-half collapses are inexcusable.

Mack Brown and Texas can still have a solid season despite the disappointment from the last two weeks. After climbing to 16th in the BCS with a 52-20 cruise over Texas Tech in Week 10, the Longhorns have dropped a 17-5 decision at Missouri and 17-13 home defeat to Kansas State most recently. Texas will finish up in a week at Baylor, so closing out an 8-4 campaign with road wins over the Aggies and Bears would make for a good rebound from last year's 5-7 squad that missed the bowl season.

The offense has been a Jekyll & Hyde unit this season, ranking 48th nationally by averaging over 405 yards per game and the bulk of that distance on the ground (223.8 YPG). Those numbers have been reduced dramatically the past two games in which the offense has averaged under 280 yards and scored just one touchdown in consecutive losses to Missouri and Kansas State.

Quarterback has been the most-troubling position, beginning the year with Garrett Gilbert before moving to the duo of David Ash and Case McCoy. The unit could still be without guard Sedrick Flowers (shoulder) and receiver Jaxon Shipley (knee) who are both questionable for Thursday's contest.

The Aggies are also dealing with a couple of injuries and could be especially thin in the backfield. Leading rusher Cyrus Gray, who went over the 1,000-yard mark in last week's win, is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Christine Michael was lost for the season with a knee injury suffered in the loss at Oklahoma a couple of weeks back, and was just a yard short of 900 when he was hurt. It would leave a heavy burden on sophomore Ben Malena if Gray is unable to answer the bell.

Several factors favor A&M, starting with the Aggies having a superior offense and a defense that will be facing a much weaker offense than the likes of Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Still, the stats reached getting to this matchup won't mean a thing in this one.

Forget home-field advantage for one time at Kyle Field. Yes, if all the Aggies yell at once, they will make more noise than the Texas fans. But this is going to be an emotional, high-energy game on both sides, and the teams have swapped beating each other on their own fields the past two seasons. Winning in College Station hasn't exactly been a problem for Texas who leads the all-time series 75-37-5 heading into this 118th meeting.

Weather should not factor in the battle that kicks off at 8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN. The College Station forecast for Thanksgiving evening calls for mostly clear skies, temps in the mid-to-upper 60s at start and very little wind.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:04 PM

Oklahoma Sooners Home To Meet Iowa State Cyclones

The Sooners have covered five of their last six against Iowa State.
The Iowa State Cyclones just ruined one Oklahoma team’s perfect season and will now try to hurt another’s chances of playing in a BCS bowl game when they visit the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday.

Oklahoma is a 28-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has won 12 straight meetings in the series. Saturday's total opened at 61½.

The Cyclones (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the season last Friday when they topped Oklahoma State 37-31 in double overtime as 26 ½-point home underdogs, handing the Cowboys their first loss of the year. Iowa State became bowl eligible for the second time in three years and hopes to carry the momentum from the shocking win over the Cowboys into Norman.

However, the Sooners (8-2, 5-2) fell victim to the upset bug themselves a day later when they lost to the Baylor Bears 45-38 as 17-point road favorites. Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State in their annual intrastate rivalry game on December 3 that should decide who represents the Big 12 with an automatic bid to a BCS bowl.

The Cowboys are ranked No. 3 in the latest edition of the Don Best Linemakers Poll while the Sooners sit one spot behind them at No. 4.

Last year, the Sooners embarrassed the Cyclones 59-0 at home as senior running back DeMarco Murray broke the school record for most touchdowns with 58. That huge loss to Oklahoma still sits in the back of the minds of Iowa State’s players, who will be looking to win their fourth straight game overall.

The Cyclones began their winning streak with a 41-7 victory at Texas Tech on October 29 after head coach Paul Rhoads decided to make a switch at quarterback. Rhoads tabbed freshman Jared Barnett as the starter against the Red Raiders after junior college transfer Steele Jantz struggled during a four-game losing streak.

Barnett has yet to lose a game as a starter and will face a huge test against the Sooners. He threw for a career-high 376 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Oklahoma State in a shootout with Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden and now looks to outduel Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, who ranks second in the country with 379.6 yards per game through the air.

Weeden ranks third nationally with 373.7 passing yards per game and burned Iowa State’s secondary for 476 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Jones completed 30 of 34 passes for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in last year’s meeting with the Cyclones, connecting on his first 13 passes and 25 of his first 27.

Game time is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FX. The weather forecast for Norman on Saturday calls for windy conditions under mostly sunny skies with a high temperature of 57

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:06 PM

Iowa Tackles Nebraska Cornhuskers In Lincoln

The Nebraska Cornhuskers' inaugural Big Ten season hasn’t gone as planned. They try to finish the regular season strong when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes on Friday.

Nebraska is a 9½-point favorite at Don Best with a total of 53½. Fans of both schools will have to put their Black Friday shopping on hold for a bit as kickoff is noon (ET) from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln.

Nebraska (8-3 straight up, 3-7-1 against the spread) was considered the preseason favorite in the Legends Division after moving over from the Big 12. However, three conference losses have helped give the division to the Michigan State Spartans even though Nebraska handily beat them (24-3) in Lincoln to end October.

The BCS No. 21 Cornhuskers will drop out of the top-25 with another loss and to a lower bowl. They only have themselves to blame with a 28-25 home loss to Northwestern on Nov. 5 as 17½-point favorites and a 45-17 loss at Michigan last week as 3½-point ‘dogs that ended their division hopes.

The only win since Michigan State was 17-14 at Penn State two games ago. However, that should have an asterisk as the Nittany Lions were reeling from Joe Paterno’s firing and they still almost came back to win (‘pushing’ the 3-point spread).

Nebraska’s offense has struggled the last four games (20.8 PPG) compared to the first seven (37.6 PPG). Sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez is not accurate, completing just 56 percent of his passes. The identity of the offense used to be running the ball with Martinez and Rex Burkhead, but both were contained against Northwestern and Michigan.

Coach Bo Pelini’s defense has also struggled with consistency. The 24.3 PPG allowed is much higher than last year (17.4 PPG) even though the Big Ten is more offensively challenged than the Big 12. The season-ending injury to defensive lineman Jared Crick in October really hurt.

Nebraska is 5-1 SU overall at home this year, but has just one cover versus the Spartans.

The Hawkeyes (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have the same 4-3 SU conference record as Nebraska, but that’s an accomplishment for coach Kirk Ferentz in what most considered a rebuilding year.

Junior quarterback James Vandenberg has been a big part of the effort, taking over for Ricky Stanzi who is currently holding a clipboard for the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs. Vandenberg leads one of the conference’s best passing attacks (241.3 YPG) and has 11 TDs versus just one interception the last five games.

Vandenberg had a solid game last week (22-of-32, 273 yards, three TDs) in a 31-21 win at Purdue. Beating a mediocre Boilermakers team shouldn’t be too much to brag about, but Iowa was 0-3 SU and ATS on the road heading into the contest.

Two of those road losses were as favorites at Iowa State (44-41 final) and Minnesota (22-21), the other as 4-point ‘dogs at Penn State (13-3). The Hawkeyes are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games dating back to last year.

The ‘under’ is 19-7-2 in Iowa’s last 28 away games (2-2 this year though).

Ferentz needs to get the running game going this week with sophomore Marcus Coker (1,297 yards). The next highest rusher has just 79 yards, so he can’t afford to get hurt. Coker will need to get the ball 25-30 times for Iowa to have a chance to win.

The Iowa defense ranks 69th in the country in passing (234 YPG) and 63rd in rushing (153.8 YPG). However, it’s done a good job in the red-zone and the 23.5 PPG allowed is less than Nebraska despite allowing almost 30 yards more per game.

The defense did a great job limiting Michigan’s dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson in a 24-16 win on November 5. However, that was in Iowa City and Martinez and the Nebraska offense are due for a good effort in its home finale.

These teams haven’t met since 2000, but they have dubbed this renewed rivalry ‘The Heroes Game.’ This could develop into one of the better matchups in the Big Ten as neighboring states and with both programs having solid futures.

Lincoln weather should be relatively warm in the 50s with a few showers possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:07 PM

Alabama 3-TD Favorite Vs Auburn In Iron Bowl

The Alabama Crimson Tide have a national title bid firmly within their grasp, but can’t afford a letdown when they meet their in-state rival Auburn Tigers on Saturday afternoon.

Alabama is a 21-point road favorite at Don Best, with the total beginning at 45. CBS will broadcast the 76th Iron Bowl at 3:30 p.m. (ET) from Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Crimson Tide (10-1 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) had what appeared to be a schedule break last Saturday against FCS Georgia Southern. However, they only won 45-21 as big 42 ½-point home favorites, with the triple-option attack testing them with 302 rushing yards.

The 66 combined points scored went ‘over’ the 54-point total after the ‘under’ was 3-0 in the Crimson Tide’s previous three. The big surprise was allowing 21 points, although they still lead the nation at 8.4 PPG.

Coach Nick Saban’s team is 0-3 ATS in its last three after starting the year 7-1 ATS. The prior two games were a 24-7 win at Mississippi State as 17 ½-point favorites and a 9-6 home loss to LSU as 5 ½-point favorites.

The Crimson Tide weren’t hurt by the relatively close Georgia Southern win. They moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 in the BCS thanks to Oklahoma State’s stunning Friday night loss to Iowa State. No. 4 Oregon and No. 5 Oklahoma also went down and 'Bama should get into the national title game without another defeat.

Alabama has ridden running back Trent Richardson hard the last two weeks, 32 carries each game for 302 total yards. The Tigers are 98th in the country against the run (193.1 YPG) and Georgia (304 rushing yards) embarrassed them in that department two weeks ago. Look for plenty of carries this Saturday.

Sophomore quarterback A.J. McCarron saw his reputation take a hit in the LSU loss and it’s important he have a big game in the hostile environment. This will be his first start in the Iron Bowl, having been behind Greg McElroy last year. He hasn’t had a 200-yard passing day in three games and will be mostly a game manager this week.

The BCS No. 24 Tigers (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) would love to end their rival’s title hopes. Last year, it was them who had everything to lose in the matchup, but Cam Newton engineered an incredible 28-27 comeback road win after trailing 24-0 and Auburn ultimately became national champion.

This has been a close series with eight of the last nine decided by 10 points or less. Auburn is 3-0 ATS in the last three at home and 5-1 ATS in the last six overall. The last game at Jordan-Hare was in Alabama’s 2009 national title season, a close 26-21 Bama win as 10-point favorites.

The ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

Auburn also played a FCS team last Saturday and failed to cover, 35-16 over Samford as 31 ½-point favorites. It was just a 21-16 margin before consecutive fourth-quarter touchdowns and had to be disturbing for coach Gene Chizik after a 45-7 loss at Georgia the week before.

The Tigers are 6-0 SU (3-3 ATS) at home this year. However, none of the victories were against teams currently ranked in the top 25. The real struggles have come with a brutal road schedule, 1-4 SU and ATS against all current top-20 squads.

The question for Saturday is whether Auburn can get the running game going and take pressure of sophomore quarterback Clint Moseley. He’s made four starts this year after replacing the ineffective Barrett Trotter and hasn’t thrown for more than 167 yards in any of them.

Chizik has a very good running back combo in Michael Dyer (1,194 yards) and Onterio McCalebb (526 yards), but Alabama has the nation’s top-ranked run defense (74.6 YPG).

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has Alabama ranked second behind LSU. Auburn is not held in high regard here, currently outside the top-40.

Auburn could be without right tackle Brandon Mosley (knee) which would be a blow against the Alabama pass rush. Tide defensive end Nick Gentry and wide receiver DeAndrew White are expected to return after 1-game suspensions.

Weather should be mostly cloudy with high temps getting into the low 70s during the day.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:09 PM

Oregon Ducks In Bounce-Back Against Beavers

Four of the last five in this series at Autzen Stadium have gone ’over.’
Every time the Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks engage in battle, NCAA football betting fans know that it is going to be a tremendous duel. This rivalry is known as the Civil War for a reason, and it will be contested for the 115th time on Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

Kickoff in this crucial Pac-12 North matchup is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on ABC on the West Coast and on ESPN2 on the East Coast. You can also view the game online with ESPN3.com.

Last week, the Ducks (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) blew any chance they had of playing in the BCS National Championship Game for a second straight season when they were beaten at home by the USC Trojans, 38-35. Still, a trip to the Rose Bowl almost seems like a given.

Oregon, the No. 5 ranked team in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, needs to win this game to win the Pac-12 North and earn host rights to face either the UCLA Bruins, Utah Utes or Arizona State Sun Devils in the conference championship. The Ducks will be heavily favored against whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South.

Should the Ducks lose the Civil War, the Stanford Cardinal will represent the Pac-12 North in the league's first championship game next Friday (Dec. 2).

Questions are really starting to swirl over just how good the Oregon defense is. Sure, the team forced a slew of turnovers against Stanford two weeks ago, but just in the past four weeks, the unit has conceded 38 to the USC Trojans, 30 to the Cardinal and 28 to the Washington State Cougars.

As was proven with last week's loss, the offense can't do it alone. The unit is still phenomenal for sure, averaging 496.1 YPG and 45.6 PPG. LaMichael James has 1,616 all-purpose yards in just nine games played, and it is possible that both he and Kenjon Barner could be 1,000-yard rushers by season's end.

Oregon State (3-8 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) won a huge game at home against the Washington Huskies last week 38-21, but that might not be enough for head coach Mike Riley to keep his job after this game is over.

Riley's offense has been all over the board this season. The team scored at least 37 points three times this year, but was also held to single digits three times.

The problem has really come on the ground. The Beavers are only running for an average of 93.0 YPG, No. 116 in the nation, and no one on the team has even 500 rushing yards.

Sean Mannion has thrown for 3,033 yards and 13 TDs this year, but 16 INTs is just far too many. However, he does have a great target in Markus Wheaton, who needs 53 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard barrier on the campaign.

The Ducks have won three in a row in this series, scoring at least 37 points in all three efforts. The road team has won three out of four SU, and last year's 37-20 win for Oregon in this series snapped a four-game cover streak for the underdogs.

The Beavers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record, but they are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Oregon is laying 28 on the NCAA football odds, while the total is up from 63 at the start of the week to 63½ as of Tuesday afternoon.

Expect a dreary day on Saturday, as the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy and potentially rainy weather. There is a 30 percent chance of showers at Autzen Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:10 PM

Clemson Tigers Travel To Meet South Carolina Gamecocks

Clemson has won six of the last eight matchups played in Columbia.
The Clemson Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks are set to wrap up their regular season schedules against one another in a battle for bragging rights in the Palmetto State. Kickoff is slated for Saturday night at 7:45 (ET) from Columbia, and there will be television coverage on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

Clemson (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) had a legitimate chance of playing for the BCS National Championship before it went on the road last week and laid a terrible egg against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. It was a brutal game that probably didn't ultimately mean much, but it was a harsh reminder for Tajh Boyd and company that they probably were never really one of the best 10 teams in the nation.

The Tigers struggled offensively without their top freshman, Sammy Watkins. The unit only mustered 13 points and 337 yards of offensive, a far cry from the 35.1 PPG and 466.4 YPG that the team is averaging.

Watkins, who sat out last week with a shoulder injury, is expected to be back in the fold this week. He already has 1,040 receiving yards and 165 rushing yards to go with a team-leading 10 touchdowns.

The Gamecocks (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) are going to hope to reach the 10-win mark for the first time under Steve Spurrier and for the first time since 1984. It would be only the second time in team history that it was able to log 10 victories in a single season.

Connor Shaw hasn't truly proven that he is much of a passer this year, throwing for only 1,008 yards with nine TDs against six INTs since taking over for the expelled Stephen Garcia. However, he does have 376 rushing yards and six more scores with his legs.

The running game is still averaging 196.9 YPG this year despite the fact Marcus Lattimore's season was cut short a month ago. Brandon Wilds has delivered though, rumbling for 462 yards and three TDs in Lattimore's absence.

These two teams are tied at No. 18 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, and their action on the field really couldn't be much closer. The two have split the last six meetings with both teams winning two road games. The Gamecocks do have a slender 4-2 ATS edge in that stretch, and have won each of the last two meetings in this series.

South Carolina is now favored by four points after opening the week at -2½. The total is set at 50.

This may not be the only time that these two teams lock horns this year. Both are strong candidates for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl played on New Year's Eve, though both are hoping to be further up their respective conference bowl ladders when the season is said and done with.

Mother Nature won't be a factor in this game, as there are partly cloudy skies and a minimal chance of rain in the forecast. Expect comfortable temperatures right around 70 degrees.

The Tigers will take on either the Virginia Cavaliers or the Virginia Tech Hokies in next week's ACC Championship Game regardless of what happens in Columbia on Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:12 PM

Notre Dame Heads West To Battle Stanford Cardinal

Coby Fleener has eight touchdown receptions for Stanford this year.
The Stanford Cardinal and Notre Dame Fighting Irish both look to end their regular seasons on a high note with a big win on national television in Palo Alto this Saturday night.

ABC has the telecast starting at 8:00 p.m. (ET). Stanford is currently a 6½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

While Stanford is no longer in the BCS Championship and is clinging to very slim hopes of a spot in the Pac-12 title game, it can still essentially lock up an at-large bid to a BCS bowl with a win over the Irish. For Notre Dame, this is a perfect opportunity for Brian Kelly to pick up a signature win for the program, and to prove that the football team is back on the map. The winner of this game will not only increase its bowl status, but will also help its recruiting this offseason.

The Cardinal ranked No. 6 in this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll, while Notre Dame came in at No. 14.

Stanford (10-1) has lost each of its last two games ATS after starting the season 9-0 both SU and ATS. The Cardinal hung on for the outright win over California in the “Big Game” last week, 31-28, but didn’t come close to covering the spread as 17½-point favorites. Still, the win did bring Stanford to 18-1 SU in its last 19 games.

Andrew Luck went 20-for-30 with 257 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Cal. While he’s no longer the top favorite, Luck is still a Heisman Trophy contender with no clear-cut winner out in the field this season. A big day against Notre Dame’s tough passing defense could make one more final case for himself.

Notre Dame (8-3) has had its shares of ups and downs this season, and just narrowly escaped with a 16-14 victory over Boston College as a 24-point favorite last week. The Irish have an impressive win over Michigan State, but failed to rise to the task against Michigan and USC. The difference between an 8-4 season and a 9-3 season with a road win over Stanford would be monumental, so there shouldn’t be any lack of motivation here.

The Irish took a major blow in the win over Boston College, losing running back Jonas Gray to a knee injury. Notre Dame will still have its leading rusher in Cierre Wood, but going up against Stanford’s stingy rushing defense that allows just 93 rushing yards per game, Gray’s presence will be missed.

Stanford is also dealing with injuries that could leave its receiving corps short. Wideout Chris Owuso (concussion) is doubtful, as is tight end Zach Ertz (knee). Tight end Levine Toilolo (shoulder) is questionable. That trio ranks 3-4-5 in receiving yards for the Cardinal.

Over the last nine years, Notre Dame is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over Stanford. The Irish are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Stanford in Palo Alto. That said, Stanford has won each of the last two meetings between these teams, including a 37-14 blowout in Notre Dame last season.

The total for Saturday’s contest is currently set at 58. Stanford has gone ‘over’ the total in four of its last five games overall and five of its last six games at home.

There's a 20 percent chance of rain Saturday at Stanford, but the likelihood decreases after sunset. The weatherman is calling for a temperature in the upper-50s for the start of the contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:14 PM

Don Best Linemakers Poll And BCS Update

Tommy Rees and the Irish have been respected all season at Don Best.
As we near the end of the college football season, only so many matchups are left to be taken advantage of by looking at the Don Best Linemakers Poll. The BCS currently has three SEC schools in their top three, but Kenny White has a much different take on teams around the nation.

As usual, many teams are underrated in the latest standings from the BCS. Oklahoma just had a very close loss on the road at Baylor which dropped the Sooners from No. 5 to No. 9. Oklahoma only dropped one spot to No. 4 in the DB Poll because of the talent that the Sooners still possess.

The same goes for the No. 5 Oregon Ducks who lost on a missed field goal to the USC Trojans. Even with two losses on the year, they would still be favored on a neutral field over some top-10 BCS schools that are actually ranked higher than the Ducks.

Wisconsin is a team that still receives very little respect in the national polls, but the Badgers rank No. 7 in the DB Linemakers Poll. After two losses in a row, they beat their next three opponents by a combined score of 132-47. Two of those were on the road.

It is highly unlikely that the Badgers are just the 16th best team in the country where the BCS ranks them.

All year long the Don Best Poll has backed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Suddenly, after a long absence, the Irish have found their way onto the Bowl Championship Series Standings at No. 22. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been ranked in the teens for weeks and currently sits at No. 14 on the Linemakers Poll.

Take a look at the opening line between the No. 1 and supposed No. 3 team in the country as Arkansas was +14 at LSU. The line has moved to 12, but that kind of discrepancy should not show up between teams ranked so close, especially in the top three. That is why you’ll find the Razorbacks at No. 8 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

Virginia Tech has vaulted into a top-5 spot in the BCS while the Hokies are tied for No. 12 with Michigan State according to the Linemakers. This appears to be a case of top schools losing at the wrong time which automatically drops them down while pushing others up.

In a knee-jerk reaction to their win over Oregon, the USC Trojans moved from No. 18 all the way up to No. 10 in the AP Poll. While Southern Cal has played good football, the Trojans moved from No. 19 to No. 15 in a much more realistic move on the DB Poll.

Then finally we have the Houston Cougars. While they are undefeated, the DB Poll illustrates that Houston’s opponent this week will be their toughest of the season. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane rank No. 24 on the Don Best Poll while they are nowhere to be found in the BCS. Simply because they are undefeated, the Cougars get a top 10 spot nationally while they are No. 17 according to Kenny White.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NCAA College Football Rankings
RANK TEAM RATING BCS
1 LSU 123.5 1
2 Alabama 122.0 2
3 Oklahoma State 119.7 4
4 Oklahoma 119.1 9
5 Oregon 118.9 10
6 Stanford 118.4 6
7 Wisconsin 117.9 16
8 Arkansas 117.4 3
9 Boise State 115.8 7
10 Georgia 114.1 13
11 Michigan 113.0 15
T-12 Virginia Tech 112.5 5
T-12 Michigan State 112.5 14
14 Notre Dame 112.3 22
15 Southern California 111.9 NR
16 Florida State 111.8 NR
17 Houston 111.5 8
T-18 South Carolina 111.1 12
T-18 Clemson 111.1 17
20 Texas Christian 110.3 20
21 Kansas State 109.9 11
22 Nebraska 109.0 21
23 West Virginia 108.8 NR
24 Tulsa 108.4 NR
T-25 Texas A&M 108.0 NR
T-25 Utah 108.0 NR
T-27 Georgia Tech 107.7 23
T-27 Southern Mississippi 107.7 NR
29 Ohio State 107.5 NR
30 Baylor 107.2 18
Don Best Linemakers Poll - College Football Power Rankings
Updated November 21, 2011

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:19 PM

College Notebook

November 22, 2011

Arizona...QB Nick Foles injured his back and had to leave the action late in last Saturday's game at ASU, with backup Bryson Beirne's only completion of the night a game-winning 23-yard TD to Juron Criner in Cats' 31-27 upset at Tempe. Cats have also announced that former West Virginia and Michigan HC Rich Rodriguez will assume the same position with UA next year. Cats have been operating with an inter HC, defensive coordinator Tim Kish, since dismissing Mike Stoops at midseason.

Arkansas...SEC scouts report RB Knile Davis, LY's leading rusher but out all of 2011 to date due to ankle injury, has been practicing and could be available for upcoming SEC West showdown vs. LSU.

Army...Oft-injured QB Trent Steelman was KO's with a right leg injury on the second play of last week's 42-14 loss at Temple. Steelman, who had missed recent action with a left ankle sprain, hurt the other leg vs. the Owls. Backups Angel Santiago and Max Jenkins went the rest of the way at QB for West Point.

Boise State...Top rusher Doug Martin returned from injury last week at SDSU and gained 129 YR, although sidekick D.J. Harper was sidelined with an ankle injury vs. Aztecs.

Bowling Green...QB Matt Schilz exited last Wednesday's game vs. Ohio with a sore knee, check status for Buffalo this week.

Cincinnati...Bearcat "O" in trouble now that QB Zach Collaros is sidelined for rest of season with leg injury. Bearcats not moving behind backup Munchie Leagaux, who completed only 12 of 31 passes in last week's 20-3 loss at Rutgers.

Clemson...Frosh sensation WR/KR Sammy Watkins missed last week's NC State game with a shoulder injury but hopes to be ready for South Carolina finale this week.

Colorado State...Starting QB Pete Thomas missed last week's 34-10 loss at TCU with knee problems. Backup Garrett Grayson was not too bad in relief, however, completing 14 of 24 passes for 248 yards with a TD and pick at Fort Worth.

Georgia...Star frosh RB Isaiah Crowell was KO'd in the early going of last week's 19-10 win over Kentucky with an ankle injury, status unknown for Ga. Tech this week. Backup Brandon Harton rushed for 101 yards for Dawgs in sluggish win over Cats.

Hawaii...QB Bryant Moniz is lost for the season with a leg injury. Warriors alternated soph David Graves (who took majority of snaps) with senior Shane Austin in 24-21 loss to Fresno last week. UH still depleted a t receiver spots with slotback Justin Clapp (ribs) and WR Allen Sampson (ACL) out for season, although WR Royce Pollard did return from knee injury vs. Bulldogs. Pollard is playing at less than 100%, however, and caught only 3 passes vs. Fresno.

Illinois...Under-fire HC Ron Zook was alternating QBs Nathan Scheelhaase and frosh Riley O'Toole last week vs. Wisconsin.

Kentucky...Frosh QB Maxwell Smith, who had been starting in recent weeks, was KO'd late in last week's 19-10 loss at Georgia with a shoulder injury. Former starter Morgan Newton came on in relief of Smith, whose status is questionable for Tennessee this week. Run-plugging DT Mister Cobble is also listed as questionable for Volunteers.

La Tech...Bulldogs won 24-20 at Fresno without top rusher Lennon Creer, sidelined by ankle injury. He could return this week vs. NM State. Bulldogs only rushed for 57 yards in Reno but rallied for late win behind QB Colby Cameron's 355 YP and 3 TDs, all in the 4th Q.

Memphis...Tigers' frosh QB Taylor Reed went down early in 3rd Q of last Thursday's 23-22 loss to Marshall with an ankle injury, with former starter Andy Summerlin on in relief down the stretch for Tigers.

Miami-Fl...RB Lamar Miller left last week's game at USF with a shoulder injury.

Middle Tennessee...HC Rick Stockstill has benched starter Logan Kilgore, with RS soph Jeff Murphy taking all of the snaps in last week's 45-19 loss to Ark State. Kilgore had tossed 6 picks in his previous 90 throws after splitting time with Murphy the previous two weeks vs. Tennessee & ULM.

Missouri...HC Gary Pinkel was suspended for last week's game vs. Texas Tech due to a DUI arrest. Defensive coordinator Dave Steckel filled in as the interim coach vs. Red Raiders, but Pinkel is due back on the sidelines for this week's border war vs. Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

North Carolina...RB Gio Bernard was KO'd by a concussion during last week's 24-21 loss at Virginia Tech, check status for Duke this week.

San Diego State...Star RB Ronnie Hillman was limited to just 3 carries on Saturday vs. Boise due to leg injuries. Backup Adam Muema did run for 119 yards but most of the damage was done late after Boise had surged to a 42-14 halftime edge.

South Florida...QB B.J. Daniels went out in the 3rd Q of last week's ugly 6-3 loss vs. Miami-Fla. with a shoulder injury. Backup Bobby Eveld was 5 for 9 thru the air but could not punch Bulls into endzone.

Stanford....Cardinal receiving corps continues to betray Heisman hopeful QB Andrew Luck. Injuries to WR Chris Owusu (concussion) and TEs Zach Ertz (knee) and Levine Toilolo (shoulder) have removed some of the best hands from the Stanford receiving corps, reflected in several drops by other targets in the past few weeks.

Tennessee...Soph QB Tyler Bray, out since early October with a thumb injury, returned to lineup last week vs. Vandy. Bray completed only 16 of 33 passes but helped end a late rally to force OT, then watched DB Eric Gordon win the game for Vols with a 90-yard TD interception return in overtime. UT can get bowl-eligible with a win this week over Kentucky, which hasn't beaten the Vols since 1984!

Texas...Longhorn offense stalling after numerous injuries to skill position weapons. Sr. RB/KR Fozzy Whittaker is now out for the season with a knee injury, joining frosh stars RB Malcolm Brown (toe) and WR Jaxon Shipley (knee) on sidelines. A desperate HC Mack Brown pulled struggling frosh QB David Ash in 3rd Q last week vs. K-State, with Case McCoy leading a belated rally that fell four points short of Wildcats in 17-13 Texas loss.

Texas A&M...RB Cyrus Gray hurt a shoulder last week vs. Kansas and status is questionable for Texas showdown on Thanksgiving. A&M was already down top rusher Christine Michael due to injury.

Toledo...QB Austin Dantin suffered a concussion last week at CMU, but Rockets still in good hands as long as co-QB Terrance Owens remains available.

UTEP...QB Nick Lamaison missed last week's game vs. Tulsa with a groin injury. Backup Carson Meger and other relievers Tate Smith and Jay hall could not keep pace with Golden Hurricane in Tulsa' 57-28 romp at Sun Bowl.

Washington State...QB Connor Halliday has been hospitalized with a lacerated kidney after last week's 30-27 overtime loss to Utah. Senior Marshall Lobbestael, who has started most of the season for the Cougars and has 16 TD passes, will get the call at QB for Saturday's Apple Cup finale vs. the Washington Huskies in Seattle at the Seahawks' Century Link Field (U-Dub's Husky Stadium now undergoing renovations).

Washington...Huskies opted to start Joe Montana's son Nick at QB last week at Oregon State in wake of starter Keith Price's knee injuries. Montana was very so-so, completing 11 of 21 passes for 2 TDs but only 79 yards passing in fading Huskies' 38-21 loss. Price made a surprise appearance in game in 4th Q.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:27 PM

Tech Trends - Week 13

November 22, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 24
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEXAS at TEXAS A&M...A&M has covered five of last six meetings. Mack 1-6 last 7 as dog. Slight to A&M, based on series trends.

Friday, Nov. 25
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BOWLING GREEN at BUFFALO...Note that the visiting team has covered the last five in this series. Falcs only 2-3 vs. line away TY but 22-12 vs. spread away from Doyt-Perry Stadium since '07. Bulls 3-0 vs. line at home in MAC play this season but had dropped previous seven vs. line as league host. BGSU, based on series road and team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EMU in revenge mode because NIU has destroyed Eagles lately, winning and covering last three by staggering158-9 aggregate! Huskies 7-2 last 9 vs. spread at DeKalb. NIU, based on series trends.

AKRON at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Zips just 2-6 against points last eight as visitor. WMU 5-2 vs. spread last seven at Waldo Stadium and is 11-5-1 last 17 on board. WMU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at BALL STATE...Rockets 7-4 against line last 11 as visitor. But Ball State now on 5-game cover streak in late 2011. Slight to Ball, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Cards 5-0 vs. line away TY, 8-0 last eight, 10-1 last 11 away since HC Charlie Strong arrived LY. Cards, however, have never won or covered in four previous trips to USF. Skip just 2-7 against line last 9 at Raymond James Stadium. UL, based on Cards' road mark.

HOUSTON at TULSA...Both hot, Tulsa covering last five and UH last six in 2011. Home team has won and covered four of last five meetings, including last two at Tulsa. Slight to Tulsa, based on series trends.

IOWA at NEBRASKA...Iowa no covers is last six reg.-season games on road. Huskers, however, only 1-5 vs. line at Lincoln TY. Ferentz still 13-6 last 19 as dog. Slight to Iowa, based on extended Ferentz dog mark.

PITT at WEST VIRGINIA...Brawl! Pitt lost and failed to cover last two brawls for Wannstedt. But Panthers are 17-9 against spread on road since 2007 (1-2 TY for Graham). Todd Graham 10-4 last 14 as do at Tulsa and Pitt (4-1 in role TY). Pitt, based on Graham dog marks.

ARKANSAS at LSU...Tough matchup lately for LSU, which is 1-3 SU and 0-4 vs. line vs. Arkansas last four meetings. Petrino 28-14 last 42 on board. Les Miles only 2-3 against points at home TY and 2-4 last 6 vs. spread at Baton Rouge. Arkansas, based on team trends.

COLORADO at UTAH...Buffs have dropped heir last eleven spread decisions as a visitor. Utah, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Spaziani 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from Chestnut Hill (3-2 TY). Al Golden has covered 6 of last 7 TY, though Canes still only 11-19 vs. line as host since '07. Slight to BC, based on Spaziani dog marks.

UTEP at UCF...UTEP 4-1 vs. line on road TY, 5-3 as dog TY, and 26-18 last 44 as dog since early 2004. Slight to UTEP, based on Price marks.

CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Home team has covered last five meetings, though worth noting Tedford is 7-1 SU vs. ASU since taking Cal job in 2002. ASU no covers last three TY. light to Cal, based on recent ASU woes.

Saturday, Nov. 26
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN...Just as John Cooper consistently failed vs. Michigan, Jim Tressel dominated the Wolverines. This might be Luke Fickell's only shot at Michigan. Tressel won last 7 vs. Michigan and was 9-1 SU vs. Mich, he also covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 meetings. Fickell also 3-0 as dog TY. Brady Hoke, however, is 5-1 vs. line at Ann Arbor TY. Slight to OSU, based on series trends.

MISSOURI vs. KANSAS (at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)...Turner Gill only 3-7 vs. points away from Lawrence since taking over at KU. Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at UCONN...Schiano has won and covered last three in series, all close and all by 4 or fewer. Schiano 3-1 vs. line away TY. UConn 12-6 vs. line last 18 at home (2-4 for Pasqualoni TY). Slight to Rutgers, based on series trends.

CINCINNATI at SYRACUSE...Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings. But Cincy only 3-7 vs. line away for Butch Jones since 2010 (2-3 TY). Cuse no covers last 3 or five of last 6 TY, and just 2-9 last 11 vs. Big East foes at Carrier Dome. Slight to Cincy, based on team and series road trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Road team has covered last four meetings. Slight to NU, based on series trends.

PURDUE at INDIANA...Old Oaken Bucket! Purdue 2-6 as chalk since LY and Danny Hope 4-9 laying points since taking over in 2009. Slight to IU, based on Purdue negatives.

ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA...Zook 4-8 as visiting chalk since taking over Illini in 2005. Visiting team has covered last four meetings, however. Gophers upset Zook 38-34 late LY and are 3-0-1 vs. line last four TY. Minnesota, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at GEORGIA TECH...Away team 7-0-1 vs. spread last 8 meetings and 9-1-1 against number last 12 in series. Georgia, based on series road trends.

VANDERBILT at WAKE FOREST...Grobe has kind of owned Vandy with handy wins and covers last three meetings, and Wake 4-1 vs. line at home TY. Slight to Wake, based on series trends.

CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has covered 4 of last 5 in Palmetto State battle. Slight to SC, based on series trends.

MARYLAND at NC STATE...Terps no covers last 6 or 9 of last 10 TY. Tom O'Brien 6-0-1 last 7 as ACC host, has also covered last 5 at Raleigh vs. FBS-level foes. NCS, based on team trends.

DUKE at NORTH CAROLINA...Tobacco Road classic. Heels have only covered 1 of last 6 in series. Duke 4-1-1 vs. line last 6 away and 8-3-1 last 12 as road dog. Duke, based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY...UK hasn't beaten UT since 1984, when a Jerry Claiborne Wildcat team beat Johnny Majors' Vols 17-12. Tenn. has also covered last four meetings. Joker 8-5 vs. line at home since LY (3-3 TY). Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

WYOMING at BOISE STATE...Blue carpet has lost some of its spread magic lately, as Boise no covers first four at home TY and no covers last 5 since late LY. Broncs 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Dave Christensen 3-1 vs. line as road dog TY, 12-4 in role since arriving at Wyo in 2009. Wyo, based on recent trends.

NEVADA at UTAH STATE...Pack winning SU but still no covers last 4 TY. Nevada 7-15 as road chalk since 2007. Utags 25-10 as dog since 2007. Slight to USU, based on team trends.

RICE at SMU...Rice has covered last five and eight of last nine meetings. SMU no covers last five TY. June Jones 4-10 as home chalk since arriving at SMU in 2008. Rice, based on series and team trends.

ALABAMA at AUBURN...Iron Bowl! Auburn has covered 5 of last 6 meetings. But Nick Saban 12-5 vs. spread away from Tuscaloosa since 2009. Slight to Bama, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at OREGON...Civil War! Not much home-field edge lately in Civil War, with road team covering last five. Mike Riley 5-11 against points last 16 on board and has covered only 4 of last 10 as dog, negating earlier sold marks in role. But Ducks only 2-5 vs. line last seven at Autzen Stadium. Slight to OSU, based on series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Beamer has dominated series lately, winning last 7 and covered 6 of those vs. Cavs. UVa 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 TY as it looks resurgent, though Beamer 26-11 against points last 37 as reg.-season visitor since 2004 (2-3 TY). Slight to VT, based on series trends.

PENN STATE at WISCONSIN...Bielema 13-4-1 last 18 on board since mid 2010. Bielema 8-1 vs. line last nine at Camp Randall. PSU 3-7-1 vs. line TY. Wisconsin, based on Bielema marks.

TEXAS TECH vs. BAYLOR (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington)...TT now "over" 8-3 last 11 since LY. Baylor "over" 15-4-1 in reg. season since LY. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA...Gators no covers last seven TY. Gators had won six straight in series and covered five of those until LY's 31-7 loss. FSU, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at MARSHALL...ECU has won and covered last two meetings, but Herd 4-1 vs. spread last five at Huntington. Slight to ECU, based on recent series trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at LA TECH...Sonny Dykes' La Tech has won and covered last six. LT has also won and covered big the last two years vs. DeWayne Walker and is 13-6 vs. spread last 19 as WAC host. LT, based on team and recent series trends.

MEMPHIS at SOUTHERN MISS...Larry Porter not-so-awful 5-6 vs. line away since LY, but this year's Memphis has yet to cover back-to-back games. Despite recent spread setbacks, USM still 7-2 vs. line last 11 TY. Slight to USM, based on recent trends.

AIR FORCE at COLORADO STATE...CSU covered vs. Force LY but had dropped previous three vs. line in series. Falcs only 5-14 last 19 against points in reg. season. Slight to CSU, based on AFA negatives.

WASHINGTON STATE vs. WASHINGTON (at Century Link Seahawks Field, Seattle)...Apple Cup! The dog team has covered 8 of the last 10 Apple Cups. Cougs 10-5 vs. line last 15 as dog since early 2010. WSU, based on Apple Cup dog trend.

OLE MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Egg Bowl! MSU has won and covered last two Egg Bowls. Rebs no covers last 4 or 8 of last 10 on board TY, also 1-5 vs. spread last 6 as SEC visitor. Houston Nutt's last game at Ole Miss. MSU, based on Ole Miss negatives.

NOTRE DAME at STANFORD...Brian Kelly 4-1 as underdog at ND and 12-2 last 14 in role at Cincy & ND since 2007. Slight to ND, based on Kelly marks.

SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE...Pat Hill only 7-24 last 31 vs. line at Dog House. SJSU has covered 4 of 5 on road TY. San Jose, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bob Stoops 23-10 vs. spread last 33 at home. Paul Rhoads 7-4 last 11 as dog. Slight to OU, based on Stoops' home mark.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV...SDSU has covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 vs. UNLV. But Rebs 3-0 vs. line as host vs. FBS TY and 8-1 in role since Bobby Hauck arrived LY. Home team 20-2 vs. line in UNLV games vs. FBS foes since Hauck's arrival in 2010. UNLV, based on recent team trends.

UCLA at SOUTHERN CAL...Note last five meetings "under" with SC covering last two after Bruins had covered previous three. UCLA hasn't win at Coliseum since Cade McNown's junior year of 1997. Neuheisel 1-8 vs. points last nine on road since early 2010. Lane Kiffin has covered five out of last six TY. Slight to SC, based on team trends.

TULANE at HAWAII...UH slumping with no covered 4 of last 5 TY. Hawaii also no covers last three at Aloha Stadium. Wave actually a bit better vs. spread on road (5-5-1 last 11) than at home. Slight to Tulane, based on Hawaii recent woes.

Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at WESTERN KENTUCKY...WKU has covered nation's-best 8 in a row while Troy has dropped 6 of last 8 vs. number. WKU, based on recent trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at ARIZONA...Ragin' Cajuns 5-1 vs. line away TY and 11-1 vs. spread last 12 on road! ULL, based on team trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU has won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings although Blue Raiders only 7-16 vs. spread since LY. FIU, based on MTSU negatives.

UAB at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Owls winless SU and 2-8 vs. line TY, 3-17 last 20 on board. UAB on surprising 7-2 spread run. UAB, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-22-2011, 08:29 PM

News & Notes - Week 13

November 22, 2011

Week 13

Teams playing with BCS pressure have struggled, like in 2007 when all of the teams that controlled their own destiny lost. Oklahoma State had it all in their favor. They were ranked #2 in the BCS, would play in the National Title game if they won their final 2 games and Brandon Weeden had moved to the top of the Heisman polls. They were taking on an Iowa State team that entered play 0-56-2 vs teams ranked 6 or higher in the AP poll. Paul Rhoads was the DC at Pitt when the Panthers knocked W Virginia out of the #2 spot and National Championship game back in that wacky 2007 season with a huge upset as a 4 TD dog and now engineered a 2nd one. At one point, ISU actually had an 8-3 FD edge but gave up a 70 yd IR TD and trailed 7-0. For the game ISU had a 33-24 FD edge and it was 24-24 after regulation with ISU winning in the 2OT...
Illinois outgained Wisconsin 301-285 but was done in by 4 TO's and ST mistakes. The Badgers' 4 TD's came on drives of 2, 30, 44, and 39 yards. Illinois had leads of 14-0 and 17-7 (after a PI wiped out a TD IL kicked a FG) at the half and IL had 15-5 FD and 224-93 yd edges. IL had TO's on 3 of their first four 2H poss setting up 2 UW short TD drives and at the end IL got to the UW29 and was int'd at the 19. Also, with the wind at the back of the punt, IL's PR let the punt sail over his head and it ended up going an extra 25 yds to the 3 yd line for a 74 yd punt...

Buffalo scored its most points S/'92 with 51 vs Akron and had a 497-239 yd edge. It was 30-3 at the half...

Munchie Legaux got his first QB start at Cincinnati as Zach Collaros was out. UC was held to a season low 225 yds by Rutgers. The Big East now has 5 teams with just 2 losses on the season and the race for an automatic BCS bowl berth is wide open. RU did have 385 yds offense and a 23-11 FD edge...

Georgia clinched an SEC Title game berth but were very unimpressive vs Kentucky. They did have a 317-165 yd edge but settled for short FG's. In the 1H they settled for 5 FG's, missing 1. In the 2H UGA was int'd in the EZ and fmbl'd at the UK40 before finally getting a 7 yd TD pass with 14:55 left to get up by 2 scores. UGA was SOD at the UK27 with 3:39 left...

Army ret'd QB Trent Steelman but he lasted just 2 plays. Temple led 28-0 at the half. Last year TU had 8 wins but did not get invited to a bowl and they now have 7 wins this year...

Michigan State clinched the Big Ten Legends division when Nebraska lost to Michigan. UM now has a shot at 10 wins and a win over Ohio St making it a glorious season in Brady Hoke's first year. The Wolverines did benefit from some short field in the game but finished with a 418-260 yd edge and had a 24-11 FD edge. It was NU's first game in Michigan Stadium since 1962. The game was tied at 10 and UM led 17-10 at HT before rec'd the 2H KO at the NU33 which set up a TD. They blk'd a punt setting up a 50 yd drive for a TD, got an 11 yd PR setting up a 31 yd TD drive, rec'd a fmbl...

Wake Forest WR Chris Givens had 191 yards receiving and WF had a 514-415 yd edge snapping a 3 game losing streak and becoming bowl eligible. Maryland is one of the most banged up teams in football and fell to 2-9 and gained 68 of their yards on an 11 play drive at the end of the game...

Miami and South Florida, a couple of disappointing teams were tied at 3 when UM drove 61/15pl to get a 36 yd FG on the final play of the game. One key play was that BJ Daniels, the starting QB for USF, left in the 3Q with a shoulder injury. Daniels had accounted for 371 yards total offense the previous week. The surprising number in this game was that at the 1H, UM had a 205-162 yd edge and the teams had combined for 6 points. The usual average in the NCAA is 13.8 yards for every point scored but this 1H had 367 yds for 6 pts - or 61.2 ypp...

Rice had a 13-0 lead hitting 54 and 51 yd FG's but Tulane got a 4&7 TD pass with 10:03 left. Rice got a TD with 1:04 left and opted for 2 which would have put them ahead of the spread but the 2 pt failed. TU did get to the Rice37 on their last drive which helped them finish with a 289-237 yd edge...

San Jose State jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 20-14 at the half with a 264-153 yd edge. Navy went for it on 4&19 and were SOD at the SJS38, punted with 7:03 left and fired incomplete on 4&3 at the SJS45 with 2:29 left on their final 3 poss after SJSt went ahead 27-24 on the 4Q's 1st play...

Luke Kuechly set the career ACC record for tackles with 523. Notre Dame took their opening drive 80/7pl for a TD and their 2nd 46/9pl for a 40 yd FG and while they finished with a 417-250 yd edge, this one was ugly. ND only led 13-7 at the half and in the 2H, 8 of the first 9 poss were punts with the other being an int. Boston College got a TD with 1:57 left to pull within 16-14 but ND rec'd the onside kick...

It was a tough loss for Texas Tech who had been beaten by an avg of 42 ppg the prior 3 wks but led for all but the final 2:22 vs Missouri. TT jumped out to a 14-0 lead and led 17-10 at the half, 27-17 after 3Q's and finally with 2:22 left MO got a TD for the lead. TT lost 3 players to injury (WR Torres, RB Washington and OG Edwards) and were the 2nd straight team to complain about the condition of MO's artificial turf. MO was without Coach Gary Pinkel who was susp'd for the game due to a DWI. After leading the entire game, TT got the ball and drove right down the field and had a FD at the MO11. On 2&6 from the 7 a pass was tipped and int'd at the 4 with :32 left and MO got the fortuitous win.

INJURIES OF NOTE

Oregon State beat Washington for the 7th time in the last eight meetings. UW was starting Nick Montana at QB as Keith Price was banged up. Montana hit 11-21-79. When Oregon St went up 31-14 Price came off the bench and led an 85/10pl drive and got a 4&9, 20 yd TD pass. OSU fmbl'd the kick at their own 17 but Price was int'd at the 1 and the Beavers went 99/12pl getting a 4&gl, 1 yd TD run with 2:06 left to go up by 17 and Montana came back in. OSU had a 484-315 yd edge.

LETDOWN AND LOOK AHEAD

TCU showed some clear letdown after their upset win over Boise State which basically handed them the Mountain West title this past week. In fact in the 1H vs Colorado State they were outgained 183-148. TCU did end up recording its 45th victory for its senior class, a school record in a 34-10 win and extended their MW records by winning a 23rd straight league game and 16th straight league game at home. CSU had a first time starting QB in true frosh Garrett Grayson (14-24-228) and CSU finished the game with a 408-372 yd edge with TCU getting a 69 yd IR TD in the 3Q...

North Carolina State did indeed blow out Clemson but they benefitted from a short field the majority of the 1H. NCSt finished with a 398-337 yd edge. Clemson had just clinched the ACC Atlantic and decided to rest Sammy Watkins who was banged up. In the 1H NCSt led 7-3 when CU fmbl'd at their own 6 setting up a 6 yd drive for a TD, fmbl'd at their own 18 setting up an 11 yd drive for a 21 yd FG. NCSt got a 34 yd PR setting up an 11 yd TD drive to go up 24-3. CU did take over with 2:35 left trailing 37-6 and went 68/8pl getting a 2 yd TD run with 1:22 left...

Teams that have unbeaten seasons and National Championship hopes dashed, usually have a letdown spot the next week. Stanford struggled to get past Cal and Boise State did not cover vs San Diego State. BS did benefit from 3 early TO's by SDSt as after an int they went 24/4pl for a TD, SDSt fmbl'd a punt on their 10 setting up a BS TD and SDS fmbl'd the ensuing KO at their own 23 and BS on 3&14 got a 14 yd TD pass to lead 21-0. BS did lead 42-14 at the half. Leading 45-14 BS fumbled at the SDS3. SDS got to midfield and punted but roughing the P gave them a FD and they would get a TD 2pl later to pull within 45-21. SDS got a TD with 6:25 left to make it 45-29 with the 2 pt conv to get under the spread. BS rec'd the onside kick and went 36/4pl for a TD to get ahead of the spread, 52-29 with 4:11 left. The Aztecs went 76/17pl converting on 3&13, 4&14, 3&8 and with just :05 left in the game, got a 1 yd TD pass to make it 52-35. BS rec'd the onside kick.

MEANINGLESS GAMES

When Penn State took the field against Ohio State it was basically a meaningless game and the winner of next week's game vs Wisconsin will be the winner of the Big Ten Leaders div whether PSU beat or lost to OSU. The Lions showed great character and pulled out the road win. They led after Stephfon Green ran 39 yds for a TD 1:30 in and led the rest of the way. PSU had won just 2 of their last 10 games in Columbus but both came vs true frosh QB's in Art Schlichter in 1978 and Terrelle Pryor in 2008 and now a 3rd time vs Braxton Miller...

Tulsa was playing in basically a meaningless game vs UTEP. If they beat Houston next week, they get a spot in the conf champ game. TU showed no look ahead but did only have a 500-443 yd edge. In fact, at the half it was TU 297-263 and they only led 21-15 when they got a 94 yd KR TD with 2:45 left in the half, 29-15. TU got a 37 yd IR TD to go up 50-15 and UTEP did gain 64 of its yards on 11 plays in the final 4:00 after TU had scored a TD to make it 57-28.

BACKDOOR/FRONTDOOR COVERS

Texas A&M went to backup QB Showers with 8:00 left in the 3Q as the game vs Kansas was a rout. A&M finished with a 469-197 yd edge. You wouldn't think anything was on the line late in the game but KU took over with 6:52 left trailing 61-0. They would convert on 4&6 for a FD to the 13 and then with just :46 left in the game, got a 15 yd TD run by Sims on 2&12 for a TD which put the game Over the total and also had KU avoid the shutout.

MISLEADING FINALS

It was a shocking early score in the Furman-Florida game as FUR jumped out to a 22-7 1Q lead. UF used big passes. In the 1Q FUR had a 196-72 yd edge. UF got 80, 29, 64 yd TD passes and a 77 yd TD run then added 27 and 75 yd IR TD's for a very misleading 54-32 final in which FUR had a 20-19 FD edge...

At the half vs Louisville, Connecticut had a 165-105 yd edge but gave up a 100 yd KR TD to open the game and settled for a 24 yd FG and trailed 14-10. The game was 28-20 when UC rec'd an onside kick at their own 41 with :13 left when they tried the lateral play and UL ret'd a fumbled lateral 36 yds for a TD with no time left on the clock to make what was a 1 score game into a 34-20 final...

We're not sure if we should classify Nevada as a Misleading Final or just a brutal loss for the Wolf Pack. In the 1H NV had an amazing 272-43 yd edge. They fumbled at the Louisiana Tech 22, were int'd at the LT30 and were SOD at the LT33. NV had a 15-2 FD edge. NV still dominated the 3Q as well going 67/12pl for a 19 yd FG, 59/6pl settling for a 24 yd FG and on their 3rd poss, went 49/9pl for a TD. With 13:01 left, NV had a commanding 20-3 lead that should have been much worse and a 437-118 yd edge. LT got 84, 89 and 92 yd drive on their final 3 poss for the win.

OPTION OFFENSES ARE TOUGH TO DEFEND

Three big plays hurt Alabama and we have to wonder why FBS schools even schedule an FCS school which runs the option as it is very difficult to prep for. Georgia Southern basically had 2 big plays on its triple option offense and a ST play for their 3 TD's. Bama jumped out to a 17-0 lead but GS got an 82 yd run by FB Swope. With :52 left in the half GS had just converted on 4&1 at its own 32 and 5pl later got a 39 yd TD pass. GS also got a 95 yd KR TD and the confounding option had by far the best effort vs Alabama's D all year with 341 yards. Jaybo Shaw is a Georgia Tech transfer and hit 1-5 passes for 39 yds. GS did gain 37 of its yds in the final couple of plays when trailing 45-21. Trent Richardson rushed for 175 yds and had 3 TD's.

Announcement

The Bum's NCAAF Week # 13 Best Bets 11/22-11/26 !

The Bum's NCAAF Week # 13 Best Bets 11/22-11/26 !

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