NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/17 - 11/21)

[Udog]

NFL

Week 11

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Sunday Night Football: Eagles at Giants
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-5, 45.5)

THE STORY: With their playoff hopes flat-lining and Michael Vick injured, the Philadelphia Eagles have zero margin for error as they hit the road for a divisional clash against the NFC East-leading New York Giants on Sunday. The artists formerly known as the Dream Team suffered the latest in a string of crushing losses with last week's shocking home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals. With seven games left to play, the Eagles' plight isn't pretty – they sit three games behind the Giants in the division and three behind co-wild card leaders Detroit and Chicago. New York has a chance to bury Philadelphia while assuring it remains ahead of second-place Dallas in the division.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Giants opened as field-goal favorites but news of Michael Vick's injury drove the number to -5. The total has come down from its opening of 47.5, to 45.5 as of Saturday.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-6, 3-6 ATS): Even if Philadelphia runs the table, it may not be enough to reach the postseason. To compound matters, Vick is expected to sit out Sunday's matchup after breaking two ribs in last week’s loss to the Cardinals. With Vick unable to practice for a third straight day Friday, backup Vince Young is in line to make his first start in a year. Young last lined up under center for the Tennessee Titans on Nov. 21, 2010. Another issue is WR DeSean Jackson, who was deactivated and sent home for last week’s game for missing a meeting. The one constant for the Eagles is RB LeSean McCoy, who has an NFL-high 12 touchdowns and has scored in nine straight games.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-3, 4-4-1 ATS): New York was unable to pull off what would have been an impressive coast-to-coast double, coming up short at San Francisco (27-20) last week after winning at New England. QB Eli Manning had his best game of the season at Philadelphia earlier this season, throwing for 254 yards and four TDs in New York's 29-16 victory that ended a six-game losing streak to the Eagles. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to miss a third straight game, another blow to the Giants’ struggling running game. WR Victor Cruz had three receptions for 110 yards, including two scoring passes, in the September matchup at Philly.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Five of the Eagles’ six losses have come when they led in the fourth quarter.

2. New York has a league-high 30 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul with 10.0.

3. When the Giants host the Eagles last season, Philadelphia scored 28 points in the final 7 ½ minutes, including Jackson’s punt return for a TD as time expired for a stunning 38-31 victory.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New York.
* Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New York.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Underdog is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

PREDICTION: Giants 23, Eagles 20. Without Vick, Eagles come up short in must-win game. If Vick plays, it will be a different story.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 21

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What bettors need to know: Chiefs at Patriots
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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-15, 46.5)

THE STORY: For one of the few times during the Bill Belichick reign, the New England Patriots were dealing with more questions than they had answers heading into last week's AFC East showdown at the New York Jets. Facing the prospect of a third straight defeat for the first time in nine years, the Patriots regained their footing and hammered the archrival Jets 37-16.

With one crisis averted and back in its familiar perch atop the division, New England faces what appears to be a rout in the making when it hosts the bruised and battered Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs have lost two straight following a four-game winning streak.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET. LINE: Patriots -13, O/U 48

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-5): After opening the season with three disastrous losses, Kansas City appeared ready to seize control of the AFC West by ripping off four consecutive wins, including victories over division rivals Oakland and San Diego.

Then came lopsided home defeats to previously winless Miami and Tim Tebow-led Denver last week, a game in which Matt Cassel may have been lost for the season with a hand injury that required surgery.

Having already lost star RB Jamaal Charles for the season in Week 2, the Chiefs will go be forced to start QB Tyler Palko, who has 13 career pass attempts to his credit.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): After three straight weeks of failing to surpass 20 points, New England got its high-powered offense back on track as Tom Brady threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns in carving up the Jets.

Equally important for the Patriots was the performance of its much-maligned defense, which is ranked dead last in the league but registered five sacks – including a franchise-record 4.5 by Andre Carter.

Second-year TE Rob Gronkowski continues to be a force with eight catches for a career-high 113 yards and two TDs. WR Wes Welker leads the league in receptions (72) and yards (1,006).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams last met in the season opener in 2008. Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury, opening the door for Cassel to take over as starter.

2. The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.

3. Gronkowski had 18 TD passes in 25 career games. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has 19 scoring passes during that same span – second only to Detroit’s Calvin Johnson (23)

LINE MOVEMENT:

Most shops opened with the Pats giving 14.5 points but just about everyone now has it a half point higher at New England -15.The total opened as high as 48 but has been bet down to 46.5. Makes sense. We know the Pats can put up points but the Chiefs offense is struggling and missing Matt Cassel.

TRENDS:

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5 or more points.

The Pats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records but 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10.5 or more points.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games while the over is 8-2 in the Pats’ last 10 home games.

WEATHER:

It should be a little chilly (game time temperature around 40 F) but wind and precipitation shouldn’t play a factor.

PREDICTION: Patriots 37, Chiefs 13. New England can name its number with Palko making his first career start.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 21

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Tale of the tape: KC Chiefs at New England Patriots
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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-15, 46)

Offense

Imagine how crazy the Patriots’ offense would be if they even had an average running game. The Pats are putting up 28.8 points per game with a rushing attack that managed just 105.9 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry – and that’s with teams stacking the secondary to defend the pass.

Tom Brady is averaging a career-best 8.4 yards per passing attempt, but does have 10 interceptions to go along with his 23 TDs. Tight end Ron Gronkowski has 214 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Kansas City’s offense is a major question mark as Tyler Palko takes over for Matt Cassel at quarterback. Palko has only 13 career passing attempts and is making his first NFL start. The Chiefs sat 27th in the league in passing offense (182 yards per game) and points per game (15.7) with Cassel in, so Palko has his work cut out for him.

The Chiefs have used Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones in the backfield in an attempt to make up for the loss of Jamaal Charles but are managing just 4.1 yards per run.

Edge: Patriots


Defense

New England’s defense sits dead last in the league allowing 412 yards per game – 308.9 through the air and 103.1 on the ground. Starting cornerback Devin McCourty is expected to be out with a shoulder injury, which means Kyle Arrington could be busier than usual. Arrington is tied for the NFL lead with five interceptions.

The Pats defensive line has shown some promise lately and Andre Carter picked up 4 ½ sacks in last week’s win over the Jets. However, the Pats are getting stops on third down just 43.1 percent of the time

Kansas City allows 24.2 points per game, two more per contest than the Pats, but the Chiefs allow only 364 yards an outing and sit 19th against the pass. The big problem is a pass rush that has notched a league-low nine quarterback sacks all season. The Chiefs do sit tied for third in the AFC with 13 interceptions and will need to be sharp.

We’ll give a slight edge to the Chiefs.

Edge: Chiefs


Special teams

The Pats are coming off one of their better special teams efforts in a long time, but has a long way to go yet. New England averages just 20.8 yards per kick return and 9.6 yards per punt, while Kansas City checks in at 22.5 yards per punt and 13.7 yards per punt.

New England’s Stephen Gostkowski has hit 16 of his 19 field goals with a long of 50 yards. Ryan Succop has missed only three of his 15 kicks with a long of 54 yards.

We like the way New England’s special teams unit is rounding into form.

Edge: Patriots


Word on the street

“If we can try to get him off the spot, so that he has to move, that might throw off the timing a little bit, and then if we’re lucky, we might be able to make a play.” – Kansas City defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel on what he wants to do to stop Tom Brady.

''Anyone that is 300 pounds and has to run play after play and doesn't get a break is going to get tired,'' Patriots left guard Logan Mankins about New England’s no-huddle offense.


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