NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/17 - 11/21)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 17 - Monday, November 21

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 11 opening line report

When Lovie Smith said “the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be eight-point underdogs” and that his players “took notice of that,” it was eye-opening.

Gambling, as we all know, drives the NFL’s popularity. It’s just that coaches and league officials rarely admit it.

Smith’s statement -- before Chicago’s 30-24 win in Philly on Monday Night Football -- wasn’t only refreshing. It was true.

The surging Bears have covered their last four games, all wins, by an average of 17.3 points. Only San Francisco (7-0 ATS run) is hotter against the spread.

Jay Cutler has been sacked just twice in the past two games and hasn’t cursed out coordinator Mike Martz lately, that we know of.

He’s thrown six TDs and two INTs since Week 4 as the Bears emphasize the running game. Right tackle Lance Louis has been a godsend.

It’s possible the rekindling of Cutler’s romance with Kristin Cavillari (“The Hills”) helped too.

Smith revamped his defense, demoting safeties Brandon Meriweather and Chris Harris. Now the unit is making big plays instead of giving them up.

Devin Hester returned his 12th punt for a touchdown Sunday, adding to his NFL record. The Bears are 13-3 when Hester takes a punt or kickoff all the way back.

While the Bears always will be a public team, they’ve been overshadowed this season, first by Detroit’s Cinderella start, then by the Packers’ quest for perfection.

Only the NFL schedule conspired to keep bettors from jumping on the bandwagon Sunday.

“The only reason we didn’t get a whole bunch more money on the Bears was the short week,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker for Lucky’s sportsbook. The Bears were coming off a Monday night game, while the Lions were coming off a bye.

In Week 11, books expect major money to pour in on the Bears. They’re opening Chicago as -3.5 or -4 over the reeling Chargers. San Diego has lost four in a row straight up and against the spread.

“San Diego has not done much lately and Chicago is on fire and at home, so I imagine they’ll be betting Chicago,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback said. “They seem to be taking over Detroit’s role as the pointspread darling the last few weeks.”

The Bears “modified their offense a little,” he added. “They’re protecting Cutler more and going to the running game.”

The Chargers are a mess but usually finish strong. They’re 8-6-1 as road dogs under coach Norv Turner.

Even though it seems the Monsters of the Midway are back, two Covers Experts provided valuable perspective.

“Chicago’s offense and defense takes a back seat statistically to San Diego’s on both sides of the ball, and they are coming off a critical division win,” pro handicapper Marc Lawrence said. “Thus, the linesmakers still respect the Chargers.”

Lawrence dug into his historical database to come up with this nugget: Since 1986, NFL teams off exactly four wins are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when hosting a foe off exactly four losses.

Covers Expert David Malinsky said the Bears are good,“but not good enough to maintain this pace. We do like the fact that they are using Matt Forte more and bringing some common sense to their offensive packages, and this will particularly matter down the stretch.

“But this looks like a case of a team that is playing as well as they possibly can, and we know that when that happens it just becomes a matter of time before some of those pendulums begin to swing back the other way.

“They could be another team that we look to fade in the very near future.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at New England (-14, 50), Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-13, 49)

Matt Cassel needs hand surgery and won’t play Monday night, but it’s unclear if Tyler Palko represents a downgrade at QB. That’s how bad the Chiefs’ offense has looked. The Pats are back on track, but some fear a letdown after a huge division win.

The Bucs are on a 1-5 ATS skid (2-4 SU). They rank 31st in total defense, not a formula for success in Lambeau.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Buffalo at Miami (-1, 43), Oakland at Minnesota (-1, 44), Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1, 36), Seattle at St. Louis (-1, 37.5)

The Dolphins and Bills are headed in opposite directions. Miami has covered three straight (2-1 SU), while Buffalo is coming off back-to-back embarrassments.

Is it too late to pull back the six-year, $59 million extension with $24 million guaranteed the Bills just gave Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Three of the last four Seahawks-Rams games have stayed under.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at New England (-14, 50), Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-13, 49)

Tom Brady looked beyond his two primary receivers Sunday night, targeting Deion Branch nine times, Aaron Hernandez five times, Danny Woodhead three times and Chad Ochocinco twice.

The Pats are almost a given to score in the 30s, and their defense could score too. The question is whether Palko (4 of 5, 47 yards in relief Sunday) can lead K.C. to a touchdown or two.

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1, 35.5), Seattle at St. Louis (-1, 37.5)

Cleveland hasn’t scored a touchdown at home in two-plus games, 123 minutes to be exact. The total for Jaguars-Browns already has dropped a full point.

Covers associate editor Ashton Grewal notes Jags’ totals have averaged 39.6, more than a touchdown higher than the actual points scored: 31.2.

He also points out Jacksonville ranks second in the NFL in 1st downs allowed per game (16.2) and fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.9).

[Udog]

NFL Week 10 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

Lloyd Christmas had a one in a million chance to swoon Mary Swanson. Tim Tebow had a one in a million chance to succeed in the NFL.

So you're telling me there's a chance.

I’m adopting a new betting commandment called the "Halo Rule". It states: Thou shalt never bet against Saint Tebow.

They said Timmy couldn't throw. He doesn't need to. They said Timmy couldn't run the option. He is. Like I’ve said before, this kid has the hand of God behind him, and the big man upstairs is a southpaw.

Forget about the Oregon Ducks, the Donkeys run the best read option in football. They even sprinkled in some triple option this week ala Georgia Tech.

Is this really going to work in the NFL? Conventional wisdom says the speed will catch up. And you’d think with proper preparation a disciplined defense should be able to contain it.

But Miami, Oakland and Kansas City couldn’t. And the Raiders had a week to prepare. And the Chiefs couldn’t stop a third-string tailback.

The Donks just manhandled two straight division opponents on the road. With the AFC West looking uglier than the NFC West these days, Denver still has a lot of life left.

And as long as Timmy is walking on water, I’m giving them better than a one in a million chance.

Offensive offenses

The only thing that saved me from a winless week was the Browns. They had scored more than 17 points just once all season but for some reason the oddsmakers felt like they were going to put up three touches against an improving Rams defense.

The only way this offense can move the ball is gadget plays. There is no running game, no deep threat and no explosiveness. Everything is vanilla because the personnel is pedestrian.

First, you've got the “Strep-Gate” soap opera starring Peyton Hillis, which has reached Code All My Children. Hillis won’t put on a Browns uniform ever again. And for those of you that aren’t superstitious, the Madden Curse is real.

Then there’s Monterio Hardesty. The guy they want to be the guy, but can't stay healthy.

And what are you going to do about Mohammed Massaquoi? The poor kid still can't see straight after James Harrison tried to decapitate him last year.

Like Cleveland, there are a few teams that have a great chance of playing under their team total every week. The Jags and Skins are certainly in that conversation.

Whether they like to lean on their defense or they lack playmakers, there is a common theme with these offensively inept offenses. They don’t score much and they cash a lot of unders.

Below are three quotes about each of the aforementioned offenses, from a member of the team. I’ll let you guess which quote came from which team (answers on back).

A. “I couldn’t imagine offensively that we’d be this anemic.”
B. “Right now you take a look at the offense and it’s tough to take.”
C. “He's still basically a rookie.”

Horseshit-collar tackle

I take a look at one of the worst calls every week because the trend is too easy to follow. It’s getting so bad these days the refs aren’t even getting them right with the assistance of replay (Victor Cruz fumble at San Fran).

Colt McCoy was rolling to his right with Craig Dahl in pursuit. Dahl momentarily gets a hand on his collar but McCoy gets away and sends a pass downfield. The pass was completed for five yards but then the Browns got 15 tacked on for a horse-collar tackle.

What! How can you call a horse-collar tackle when no one was actually tackled?

Look, I’m glad the Roy Williams Rule is in place. It protects players from severe injury. But Dahl barely slowed McCoy down. He never even got close to tackling him, or injuring him. If he gets fined he should pay the league with a truckload of pennies.

At least justice was served by the football gods. The snap for the go-ahead field goal rolled to the holder and Phil Dawson shanked the boot.

It was a really bad beat if you backed the Browns to win. But that was a really bad call.

The NFL has come to a point where it’s over-protecting players. It’s starting to feel a lot like flag football.

Bonehead of the week

Doesn't Mike Smith remember how much crap Belichick caught for that call against the Colts in ’09?

At least Bill had a reason to go for it. No way were the Pats stopping Peyton Manning again. But the Falcons defense was holding ground and had already forced a three-and-out in overtime.

What does a call like that do to the psyche of a defense? Of course he’s going to say it was all about the offense but do you question the level of confidence your head coach has in you?

I like coaches that gamble. Like a fake punt or a surprise onside kick (Harbaugh you sneaky dog). But going for it on fourth and inches on your own 30 is like walking in the winning run.

Leaning tower of leans

Bengals +7.5 at Ravens - Cincy hung around pretty well with Pitt. And I think the Steelers are better than Baltimore.

Jaguars PK at Browns - Two of those “anemic” offenses square off again. I’ll take the one that has the only superstar in the stadium.

Giants -3 vs. Eagles - Freddy Krueger dressed as John Skelton just murdered the Dream Team.

NFL Record: 26-18-2, 5.43 units

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

NY Jets at Denver
The Jets look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. New York is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17

Game 307-308: NY Jets at Denver (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 138.098; Denver 124.971
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 13; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-4 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Game 415-416: Tennessee at Atlanta (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.205; Atlanta 138.122
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Over

Game 417-418: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.304; Miami 133.962
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Over

Game 419-420: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.547; Baltimore 140.109
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+8); Under

Game 421-422: Jacksonville at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.418; Cleveland 130.199
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1); Over

Game 423-424: Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.120; Minnesota 128.148
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under

Game 425-426: Carolina at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.489; Detroit 135.889
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Tampa Bay at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.465; Green Bay 142.311
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 11; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+13); N/A

Game 429-430: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.157; Washington 125.380
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 431-432: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.972; San Francisco 139.708
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-9 1/2); Under

Game 433-434: Seattle at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.713; St. Louis 126.463
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: San Diego at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.644; Chicago 138.189
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Under

Game 437-438: Philadelphia at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.007; NY Giants 135.301
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 439-440: Kansas City at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.166; New England 139.858
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 16; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+16); N/A

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

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Thursday, November 17

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NY JETS (5 - 4) at DENVER (4 - 5) - 11/17/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 20

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TENNESSEE (5 - 4) at ATLANTA (5 - 4) - 11/20/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 4) at MIAMI (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 3) at BALTIMORE (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (5 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 31-62 ATS (-37.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-58 ATS (-38.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (2 - 7) at DETROIT (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (9 - 0) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (5 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 6) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 1) - 11/20/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 6) at ST LOUIS (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 117-152 ATS (-50.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 84-119 ATS (-46.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 117-152 ATS (-50.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 6) at NY GIANTS (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 145-106 ATS (+28.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 21

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3) - 11/21/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, 11/17/2011

NY JETS at DENVER, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
NY JETS: 23-8 ATS off home division loss
DENVER: 1-5 ATS off BB road games


Sunday, 11/20/2011

TENNESSEE at ATLANTA, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
TENNESSEE: 37-16 ATS vs. NFC
ATLANTA: 11-2 ATS off SU loss

BUFFALO at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 15-3 ATS Away after allowing 35+ pts
MIAMI: 8-1 Under this season

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-0 Over in conference games
BALTIMORE: 0-4 ATS vs. Cincinnati

JACKSONVILLE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 8-1 Under in all games
CLEVELAND: 2-10 ATS in home games

OAKLAND at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 31-62 ATS if line is +3 to -3
MINNESOTA: 10-0 ATS at home off loss by 21+

CAROLINA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 1-8 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
DETROIT: 6-0 Over off road loss

TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 17-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards L3 games
GREEN BAY: 8-0 ATS at home off 5+ wins

DALLAS at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 3-12 ATS off win by 28+ pts
WASHINGTON: 9-1 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
ARIZONA: 11-3 Under vs. division
SAN FRANCISCO: 8-0-1 ATS this season

SEATTLE at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-8 ATS Away off home win
ST LOUIS: 34-19 Over after allowing 14 points or less last game

SAN DIEGO at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 6-0 Over Away off home game
CHICAGO: 2-12 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +4 or better

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over Away off an Under
NY GIANTS: 0-6 ATS after allowing 6+ yds per play last game


Monday, 11/21/2011

KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
KANSAS CITY: 13-30 ATS vs. AFC East
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 Over off double digit road win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 17

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. DENVER
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of the NY Jets last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, November 20

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. GREEN BAY
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. MINNESOTA
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games when playing Miami
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CHICAGO
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing San Diego

4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. ATLANTA
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Philadelphia


Monday, November 21

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New England's last 20 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Jets (5-4) @ Broncos (4-5)-- Jets off spanking by Patriots, have long trip with short work week; they've won two of last three visits here, including 24-20 win LY. Jets allowed 30+ points in all four losses; they've allowed 13 ppg in wins- they're 1-3 on road, winning only at Buffalo. Denver is 3-1 with Tebow starting at QB, running ball for average of 230 yards/game, but they've lost three of four at home, losing 45-10 to Lions in Tebow's only home start. Over is 5-2 in Jets' last seven games. Denver completed less than 50% of passes in last five games. AFC West underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road favorites are 1-3.

Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4)-- Interesting to see how Falcons bounce back after OT loss to rival Saints last week, their first loss in four games. Atlanta is 2-2 as favorite this year, 1-0 at home- they're 2-2 SU at home. Titans are playing first game this year on artificial turf; they're 2-2 on road, 4-1 as underdogs- they are 1-4 when scoring 17 or less points, 4-0 when they score more. Teams are 2-6 week after playing New Orleans. Tennessee won last five series games, with its last loss in 1990, but they lost only Super Bowl appearance on this field dozen years ago. Last five Atlanta games, last three Titan games stayed under total.

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7)-- Buffalo lost last two games 27-11/44-7; they've turned ball over 11 times in losing three of last four games. Miami won last two games after 0-7 start, not allowing a TD on 19 possessions; they had only four takeaways in first eight games, but had two last week. Fish are 4-2 in last six series games, winning two of last three here, by 9-28 points. Last eight Miami games stayed under total; six of nine Buffalo games went over, as have four of five AFC East divisional games. Bills lost their last three road games by 3-3-37 points- they're 3-1-1 as underdog this year. Miami's win last week made them 7-29 vs spread in last 36 games as a home favorite.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)-- Baltimore is 4-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 28-17-15-3 points, but in last four games, they've lost to two awful teams, and beat Arizona after trailing 24-6, so they're struggling badly. Bengals won three of last four series games, are 4-3 in last seven visits here, losing by 6-7-6 points- they're 4-1 on road, 5-0 vs spread, with only loss 24-22 at Denver. Cincy is only NFL team to win field position battle in all nine games. Ravens lost field position last four weeks, by 12-8-3-14 yards- as opponents started 10 of 43 drives in Baltimore territory. Six of nine Baltimore games went over the total. Bengals forced 33 3/out on opponents' last 69 drives.

Jaguars (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)-- Cleveland would be shooting for .500 here had they not botched center snap on GW FG last week. Browns trail series 9-4 but are 3-2 vs Jaguars since teams haven't been division rivals. Jags allowed 14-7-3 points in their three wins, an average of 23.7 in its losses; Browns scored more than 17 points once this year, and were held to 12 or less points in each of last four (two TDs last 40 drives). Jaguars are 1-4 on road, with only win at winless Colts. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 5-6-1. Last four Jacksonville games, four of last Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7)-- Minnesota has short week after Monday night tank job at Lambeau; they're 0-6 when scoring less than 24 points, 1-3 at home, despite outscoring those four opponents 82-15 in first half. Oakland is 9-4 in series, splitting six visits to Twin Cities; they're 3-1 on road, with only loss by 3 at Buffalo, when they led 21-3 at the half. NFC North home teams are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Five of last six Oakland games stayed under the total; three of last four Viking games went over. Raiders had four extra days to prepare for this, having played on Thursday last week. In two games since its bye, Oakland has averaged 8.5/10.5 yards/pass attempt.

Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3)-- Detroit lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; QB Stafford broke index finger on his passing hand, why is he playing if he is hurt? Detroit scored 24+ points in its six wins, 19-16-13 losses, and they lost their last two home games (2-2 as home fave). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 5-6, 3-4 on road. Six of nine Detroit games went over the total; three of last four Carolina games stayed under. Panthers lost five of last six games, are 1-2 as underdogs on road, losing all three games by 7-5-14 points- this is their first road game in five weeks. Carolina allowed 140.5 rushing yards/game over last four games.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Packers (9-0)-- Unbeaten Green Bay on serious roll, with six covers in last seven games; Pack is 4-0 as home favorite, winning by 8-26-21-38 points, scoring 19 TDs on 37 home possessions. Pack covered six of last seven games- they scored 45 in both post-bye games. Tampa Bay lost three in row, by 6-11-28 points, with only four TDs on last 36 drives- they've given up an average of 185.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Bucs are 1-3 on the road, losing by 45-6-11 points, with lone win at Metrodome in Week 2. Six of last seven Buc games stayed under the total; last three Packer games went over. Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 1-9-10 points.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6)-- Wheels have fallen off for Washington club that lost last five games (0-5 vs spread) scoring one offensive TD on their last 32 drives. Neither QB is any good, so teams play nine in box vs runs and have held Skins to average of 54.6 rushing yards during five-game losing skid. Dallas lost three of four on road, with only win in OT at Candlestick in Week 2; they are 2-3-1 as favorites. Cowboys won five of last six games in series, including 18-16 (-4) Monday night win in Week 3, when teams combined for one TD and four FGs on six red zone drives. Five of last six series totals were 34 or less. Under is 7-1 in last eight Washington games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.

Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (8-1)-- San Francisco won/covered last seven games, as 49ers continue to take ball away- they've had 2+ takeaways in every game but one, and are +13 in turnovers for season. Niners won last four series games, last three by 15+ points- they held Arizona to 9.5 ppg in the four games. Arizona covered last three games, winning last two and blowing 24-6 lead at Baltimore in game before that; Cardinals are 1-4 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 1-3-24-3 points, with a win at Philly- only two of their six losses are by more than four points. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under total. Underdogs are 0-3-1 vs spread week after playing the Eagles.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7)-- Seattle won 11 of last 12 series games since '04 playoff loss; last meeting was 16-6 home win that clinched NFC West on final day of 2010. Seahawks are 1-4 on road, getting five takeaways (+2) in only win at Giants. Rams won two of last three games, allowing only one offensive TD on last 21 drives; they're favored for first time this year. Jackson is healthy and Rams have run ball for 154.3 yards/game last three weeks. Seattle's turnover ratio is +6 in its three wins, -8 in losses- they have three TDs on 43 drives in their four road losses. Under is 3-1 in Seattle's last four games, 5-1 in Rams' last six. Average total in last four series games, 29.0.

Chargers (4-5) @ Bears (6-3)-- San Diego has fallen apart, going 0-4 since bye, allowing 29.8 ppg (12 TDs/33 drives); they're 1-3 on road, losing by 14-6-3- its only road win was at Denver. Chicago won/covered last four games, scoring an average of 32.5 ppg; they're 3-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite, winning games at home by 18-5-29-24 points. San Diego has turned ball over 2+ times in each of last five games (-4). Teams split 10 series games, with Bolts losing three of four visits here (only win was 20-7 in first meeting 41 years ago). Three of last four Chicago games went over the total. Chicago has nine INTs in its last three games, after picking off only four passes in their first six games.

Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3)-- Last 3-6 team to wind up in playoffs were the '96 Jaguars, coached by Tom Coughlin, so Eagles aren't dead, but their season is on life support. Philly (-8) lost 29-16 to Giants in Week 3, ending six-game series win streak- they've won last four visits here, scoring 45-38 in last two. Giants are 3-1 at home, 1-2-1 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 12-3-3 points. Vick has broken ribs; if he can't go, highly suspect Vince Young gets nod. Philly is on road for first time in five weeks; they've split four road games, losing by 4 in Atlanta, 7 in Buffalo. Three of four Eagle road games went over total. Eagles are amazingly 0-6 this season when allowing more than 13 points.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Chief QB Cassel (hand) is out for year; former Pitt QB Palko gets first NFL start here, leading team that scored one TD on last 21 drives in losing last two games by 28-7 points. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chiefs lost last four visits here by 30-6-3-7 points, with last win in '90. Patriots lost two of last three games, but are 3-1 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points with a loss to Jets (2-2 as home faves). Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under total, as did three of last four Patriot tilts. Chief personnel head Pioli had same role in Foxboro during Patriots' championship years. Chiefs covered their last three road games, are 5-1 as an underdog this season.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

California at Stanford - Open: -20 Move: -17.5

This line reeks of last week – as in Stanford’s season-altering loss to Oregon.

This could be letdown city for Stanford and even more troubling when you consider it's the annual BIG GAME,” Fuhrman says. “Cal will be amped to take advantage of a Cardinal team who had their title dream's dashed last week against Oregon and one has to imagine Stanford could come out a little bit flat Saturday.”

Miami at South Florida - Open: +1.5 Move: -1

What a weird year it’s been for South Florida. After such a great start, the Bulls were terrible in October and nearly flushed their season down the drain. Now that a win Saturday will still make them bowl eligible, this game against Miami looms a lot larger.

“Miami has struggled away from home this season and now takes on a Bulls team that will see this as a chance to build on a strong Florida recruiting base,” Fuhrman says. “The Canes came up just short versus FSU last week and it's hard to imagine they bring similar intensity this week. Not exactly the public looking to back Skip Holtz's bunch in this game.”

Oklahoma at Baylor - Open: +14 Move: +15.5

The task for the Sooners is simple – win out for a shot at the BCS Championship game. They’ll have tons of supporters (as we’ve already seen by this line move), but this one could be interesting.

“The real question would be over/under 2.5 punts for Oklahoma if you ask me,” Fuhrman says. “RGIII should find plenty of looks downfield but the Bears defense could be in for a long day if OU's weapons are clicking on all cylinders. This has the potential for a good old fashioned shootout and the Sooners have a few more weapons suited for that kind of football game.”


NFL

Philadelphia at New York Giants - Open: -3 Move: -5

As if the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t have enough to worry about already, now Mike Vick has a couple of broken ribs and his status for Week 11’s tilt up in the air. That’s not to mention whatever is going on with DeSean Jackson or the 22.6 points per game the Eagles allow.

“This is pure injury steam around the Michael Vick injury situation,” Fuhrman says. “Even if Vick was 100 percent, I think -3 was way too low to open this number since the public's love affair with Philly has worn off following back-to-back clunkers. The Giants have a very difficult schedule coming up and if they're going to make a run at the division title it’s imperative for them to hold serve at home.”

Jacksonville at Cleveland - Open: 0 Move: -1

This line has been bouncing around pick ‘em since the opening and right now bettors seem to just be siding with the crappy home team as opposed to the crappy visiting team.

“Can either of these teams get to 10?” Furhman wonders. “ Two of the NFL's most anemic offenses won't be keeping the scoreboard operator on his toes this weekend. I figure there's some value with the home team at such a cheap price given the Jags inability to move the football consistently.”

Kansas City at New England - Total open: 48 Total move: 46

The Chiefs were a major offensive question mark with Matt Cassel under center, so now that Tyler Palko is taking the snaps, it’s understandable to see this total drop a bit.

“New England will definitely get their points on Monday but how does K.C. find the end zone?” Furhman asks. “Tyler Palko was once cut from a UFL roster and his biggest claim to fame is beating out Joe Flacco for the starter's job at Pitt during college. Kansas City hasn't moved the ball under Matt Cassel and there's no reason for me to believe they will with the QB change. I know the Pats defense isn't a brick wall but the Chiefs could be lucky to muster double digits this week.”

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, November 17

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Thursday Night Football: Jets at Broncos
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New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6, 40.5)

THE STORY: There’s usually not much activity on Revis Island, but it will be taken to a new extreme when the Denver Broncos host the New York Jets on Thursday night. Jets coach Rex Ryan banks on teams not throwing at star cornerback Darrelle Revis, and the Broncos will be happy to oblige with their Tim Tebow-led option offense that put the ball in the air only eight times in Sunday’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver’s new look might be welcomed by the Jets, who were torched by Tom Brady and New England’s aerial attack in a blowout home loss Sunday night.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: The Jets opened as 5-point road faves and were bet down to -4 before action pushed the spread all the way to -6. The total had fallen from 42.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Denver, with light winds blowing SW at 6 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 40's later in the evening.

ABOUT THE JETS (5-4, 4-5 ATS): New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in the 37-16 loss to the Patriots in a showdown for first place in the AFC East. QB Mark Sanchez threw a pair of interceptions and was sacked five times, so the Jets may follow Denver’s lead with a more conventional ground-and-pound running game. With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to miss the game with a sprain knee, New York could feature a heavy dose of RB Shonn Greene and count on its defense to contain the Broncos’ one-dimensional offense. The Jets had allowed 38 points in three previous games before wilting under the New England’s pass-heavy attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): The pundits keep insisting that Tebow’s throwing motion is not suited for success in the NFL, but it doesn’t have to be in this offense. Denver ran the ball on 55 plays last week, getting 30 carries from Lance Ball, who was forced into action due to injuries to RBs Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. McGahee is iffy and Moreno is done for the year, so Ball could be in line for another big workload. Tebow had two completions last week, but one was a 56-yard TD to Eric Decker that broke the game open. The Broncos have won two straight and are 3-1 with Tebow as a starter.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tebow is the only QB in history to throw a TD pass and rush for at least 25 yards in each of his first seven starts.

2. The Jets had won six straight games in November prior to Sunday’s loss that had Ryan cursing at a fan – and apologizing for it the next day.

3. Tomlinson ran for two fourth-quarter scores as the Jets rallied for a 24-20 win at Denver last season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Broncos are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Jets' last five games as road favorites.
* Over is 22-8 in Broncos' last 30 games overall.

PREDICTION: Jets 20, Broncos 13. With only leather helmets missing, the Jets grind out a hard-to-watch victory.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, November 17

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Tale of the tape: Jets at Broncos
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No need to wait until the weekend to get your football fix. Thursday Night Football returns for another week, pitting the New York Jets against the Denver Broncos. Here’s our tale of the tape for this East vs. West matchup:

Offense

Neither team has an offense to write home about, but there have been major improvements on both sides heading into Thursday.

New York struggled to move the football early in the season, but it averaged 26 points during a three-game win streak before scoring just 17 against the Patriots anemic defense last Sunday.

The Jets really don’t do anything well when it comes to moving the chains. Quarterback Mark Sanchez is once again limboing below expectations and the rushing attack may have just lost a key cog with a knee injury to veteran RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Sanchez was 20 for 29 for more than 300 yards, one TD and two picks against New England – giving him an 81.5 QB rating on the year.

In Denver, the choice to go with Tim Tebow at QB is paying off for new head coach John Fox. The Broncos 3-1 SU and ATS since the former Heisman winner took over under center. However, it’s tough to call Tebow the difference.

He completed just 2 of 8 passes for 69 yards in the win over Kansas City last Sunday, but one of those completions was a 56-yard TD pass to Eric Decker to put Denver ahead by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Tebow also added 43 yards and a rushing score in the win.

The Broncos also have a major injury to their second-ranked ground game, losing RB Knowshon Moreno for the season to a torn ACL. Backups Willis McGahee and Lance Ball should be able to pick up the slack. Ball rushed for 96 yards on 30 carries versus the Chiefs.

Advantage: Denver


Defense

The Jets defense may not be the feared stop unit it was a couple years ago, but they are still among the league’s elite.

New York ranks eighth in total yards allowed (326.8) and passing yards allowed (210.8) per game, but has limited opponents to under 20 points in just three games this season. The Patriots passed for 329 and three touchdowns in last week’s win over the Jets.

Corner Darrelle Revis is still the star of the defense, and is always a threat to break a big play – if the opposing QB is ballsy enough to throw in his direction. But Revis isn’t getting much help from the pass rush, which has recorded only 18 total sacks and couldn’t get to Tom Brady last Sunday night.

Denver’s defensive numbers aren’t that great to begin with, but they’re especially bad when you consider the stats have been padded versus weak offensive opponents in recent weeks.

The Broncos, who allow 26 points on 360.7 yards per game, limited Kansas City, Oakland and Miami to 24 or fewer points but coughed up 45 points in their loss to Detroit – Denver’s lone quality opponent since a Week 6 bye.

The Broncos’ pass rush is acceptable, totaling 24 sacks on the year (ninth in the NFL) but they haven’t been able to get those game-changing turnovers, picking off only six passes and stealing just five fumbles.

The pass defense was picked apart by top-level QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford. Luckily for Denver, Mark Sanchez isn’t in the same category as those names. He’s on the level with last week’s opposing passer, Matt Cassel, who threw for 98 yards and a score before being taken out with a hand injury.

Advantage: Jets


Special teams

Neither team’s kicker is a hot commodity among fantasy football owners trying to shore up the one roster spot.

Denver’s Matt Prater has made just 9 of 14 field goal attempts, topping out at about the 40-yard range despite the thin air in the Mile High City.

New York’s Nick Folk isn’t much better, going 12 for 14 on FG attempts but showing a bit more leg when it comes to kicks of 40-plus yards.

The Broncos return team averages 25.6 yards per kickoff return and 16.4 yards per punt return, which is third best in the league. Denver has also scored two punt-return TDs, coming from speedsters Eric Decker and Eddie Royal.

The Jets top the NFL with 28.9 average yards per kick return, getting a special teams score from Joe McKnight. On punts, New York averages just 8.6 yards per return and has yet score on a punt return.

Advantage: Jets


Word on the street

"I thought he was a great competitor, I thought he was a winner and that's what he's showing now. Are there prettier passers than him? Yeah, absolutely, but we have to find a way to beat him." – Jets head coach Rex Ryan on Broncos QB Tim Tebow.

"If we were trying to run a regular offense, he'd be screwed. After the loss to Detroit (Week 8), we decided if Tim is going to be our guy, we can't do that other crap. We had to tweak it." – Denver head coach John Fox about starting Tim Tebow at QB.


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[Udog]

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 11

We’re at Week 11 of the NFL season, with two burning questions: Can the Packers go undefeated? And if Tim Tebow can lead the Broncos to three wins, shouldn’t the Colts be able to win just once behind Curtis Painter?

At least the Colts can’t lose this week, since they’ve got a bye – though I heard they were still 3-point underdogs.

To the NFL poolies cheat sheet we go:

New York Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos

Why Jets cover: Getting to a point where they really can’t afford any more bad showings, after getting walloped by New England on Sunday night. They’ve won four of last five against the spread vs. losing teams, and six of last eight ATS as road chalk. And Denver a meager 7-19-2 ATS last 28 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: Get to face team reeling from blowout loss, and on a very short week, travel doesn’t favor Jets. In fact, Gang Green have failed to cover in four of last five on road.

Total (40.5): Both teams like the over, which is 22-8 Broncs’ last 30 and 20-7 Jets’ last 27.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Why Bengals cover: They’re getting 7 points against team that, over past four games, lost outright to Jacksonville and Seattle, and nearly lost to Arizona, failing to cover against all three lightweights. And Cincy has cashed in all five of its roadies this season, going 4-1 straight up. This rivalry also leans to Bengals lately, who have covered last four, all as pups.

Why Ravens cover: They tend to play up – or down – to the level of their competition, as proven by their big win two weeks ago at Pittsburgh and their inexplicable loss last week at Seattle. So John Harbaugh’s troops, at 5-1 ATS last six vs. winning teams, should be pretty amped to face solid Cincy squad.

Total (40.5): Game features two of league’s top defenses, with Baltimore allowing 16.9 ppg (third) and Cincy 18.2 ppg (fifth). In this AFC North rivalry, total has gone low four straight and six of last seven.

Oakland Raiders (-1) at Minnesota Vikings

Why Raiders cover: Oakland getting little respect as first-place team from AFC Worst, er, West. Lousy division aside, Men in Black have covered all four on road this year (all as ‘dogs), with three SU wins. And they played Thursday game last week, so they’re rested.

Why Vikings cover: 3-0-1 ATS last four following non-cover. And Oakland not exactly comfortable in favorite’s role, at 8-23 ATS last 31.

Total (45): Under has been play in five of Raiders’ last six, but with game at Vikes’ home dome, weather won’t be factor, and Minnesota on 4-1 over stretch at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Coming off huge win at Indianapolis. Uh, maybe not, since beating Manning-less Indy not so special anymore. Still, they’ve cashed three of four (3-0-1 ATS), and Browns on numerous pointspread freefalls, including 4-15-2 overall and 1-8-2 at Dawg Pound.

Why Browns cover: Get rare opportunity to face more inept offense than their own. Jags, with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, netting a paltry 12.8 ppg (31st). By comparison, Cleveland and second-year QB Colt McCoy an offensive juggernaut at 14.6 ppg (29th).

Total (34.5): That is one low number for a total, but these two teams are awful on offense. Watching paint dry might be more exciting than this game. In fact, watching paint dry, then repainting and watching it dry again might be more exciting. Jags have played to under in four straight overall and five in a row on highway, and under 4-1 in Browns’ last five.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1)

Why Bills cover: After 4-1 SU start, they’re backsliding, and they desperately need a win to stay in AFC playoff picture. Miami has long-standing tradition of non-excellence at home, where they own ATS slides of 18-48-1 overall and 7-29 as a chalk.

Why Dolphins cover: They are scorching hot, or at least their version of scorching hot, winning last two SU and ATS after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS). Buffalo 3-7 ATS last 10 AFC East contests.

Total (43): These division rivals polar opposites on totals, with Bills on boatload of over runs (including 8-2 last 10 overall and 5-0 on road) and Fish on plethora of under hot streaks (8-0 last eight). Under 7-3 last 10 Bills-Dolphins clashes, including 4-1 last five in Miami.

Dallas Cowboys (-9) at Washington Redskins

Why Cowboys cover: Because it’s November, and the Cowboys have beaten the oddsmakers 20 of the last 28 times in the 11th month of the year, including 4-1 ATS last five. Washington can’t figure out who to play at QB and is on 0-5 SU and ATS purge, scoring 13 points or less four times in that span.

Why Redskins cover: Can’t sugarcoat that Washington is weak, but for whatever reason, the ‘Skins have a stronghold on this rivalry at the books, going 8-2 ATS last 10 against Pokes. Dallas 1-6-1 ATS last eight as favorite.

Total (41.5): Under 5-1 last six Cowboys-Redskins affairs, including Dallas’ “thrilling” 18-16 home win in September – and that was the highest scoring of those five unders, with the other four totaling 24 points or less. Washington on under sprees of 13-3 overall and 6-1 at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

Why Buccaneers cover: It’s almost impossible to make a case for anybody against Green Bay right now, but Bucs do have one key attribute: road-warrior mentality. Tampa on road ATS upswings of 12-3-1 overall and 10-2 catching points.

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champions virtually unstoppable, having won 15 consecutive games SU while going a stout 12-3 ATS in that stretch. QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 3 INTs) leading league’s best offense (35.6 ppg).

Total (49): Packers scored 45 points in each of last two games, and in four home games this year, Rodgers & Co. have piled up 42 or more three times. If Green Bay keeps up that pace, it won’t take much from the Bucs to reach the over.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7)

Why Panthers cover: Lions not exactly the same team that started season 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS, and they’re losing their composure a bit, too, as evidenced by Matthew Stafford’s meltdown in blowout loss to Bears last week. Panthers a solid underdog, at 8-2-2 ATS last 12 in that role.

Why Lions cover: Even though they’ve dumped three of last four SU and ATS, they’re still on several positive pointspread streaks, having cashed nine of last 12 at home dome and going 10-3-1 last 14 overall.

Total (47): Mostly over trends for both teams. However, total has gone low five of last six at Ford Field.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Why Cardinals cover: Coming off huge road upset of Philadelphia as a 13.5-point underdog, so they’ve got plenty of confidence against division rival. And forget about injured QB Kevin Kolb; unheralded John Skelton has led Redbirds to back-to-back wins, on the field and at the sportsbook.

Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the league better at beating the bookmakers. Niners haven’t suffered pointspread loss all season (8-0-1) and are on 7-0 SU and ATS firestorm. San Fran has also covered last five vs. Arizona.

Total (40.5): Total has gone low in nine of Cards’ last 11 NFC West tilts. On the flip side, Niners on flurry of over runs, including 6-1 at home.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-1)

Why Seahawks cover: Well, they’re generally lousy, and they start Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but they actually beat Baltimore outright last week, moving to 5-1-1 ATS last seven – and they were underdogs in all seven contests. Seattle has also grabbed cash seven of last eight in this NFC West rivalry.

Why Rams cover: Can control the game behind RB Steven Jackson, who is starting to rumble again. Jackson rushed for 128 yards in win at Cleveland last week, giving him average of 139 ypg over last three outings.

Total (39): Rams average NFL-worst 12.6 ppg, and Seahawks not much better at just 16 ppg (29th). Such patheticness points to the under, which is 5-1 in St. Louis’ last six overall and 12-3-1 in Rams’ last 16 division starts.

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Why Chargers cover: Because they need a win, having dumped four in a row SU and ATS to lose control of awful AFC West. If coach Norv Turner doesn’t right this ship quickly, he’ll need some SPF 50 for his rear end, to avoid scorching burn of hot seat.

Why Bears cover: They’re on a roll right now, even if QB Jay Cutler always looks like he’s got a bad case of bitter beer face. Lovie Smith’s troops have been impressive in reeling off four straight wins, cashing in all four, including beatdown of visiting Detroit last week.

Total (45): With Chargers hitting road and Bears at home, over seems like smart play. Over 6-1-1 San Diego’s last nine roadies and 8-2 Chicago’s last 10 at Soldier Field.

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

Why Titans cover: Not a lot of positive ATS trends for this team, so motivation comes from desperation. If this team still harbors any playoff hopes, it’ll have to get some wins outside of AFC South down stretch.

Why Falcons cover: Because coach Mike Smith has to put last week’s stupid fourth-down decision out of everybody’s minds. What better way is there to prove you’re a genius than by just beating the daylights out of an opponent? And Atlanta is a very strong bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 18-5 off a SU loss and 18-7 after a non-cover.

Total (44): Falcons have played to the under five consecutive games, even though last week’s loss to New Orleans went to overtime.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-4.5)

Why Eagles cover: When 3-6 team is only catching 4.5 points on road against 6-3 team, something’s up. Clearly, oddsmakers still believe in Eagles’ overwhelming talent level, even if it hasn’t translated to SU or ATS wins. Also involved in the equation: In this rivalry, ‘dog has gone stout 12-2 ATS last 14, and road team has covered seven of last nine.

Why Giants cover: They are stinging from loss at San Francisco, in game they definitely could have won. And they’ve already proven selves against Eagles this season, going on road to post 29-16 outright win in Week 3 as hefty 9-point underdog, ending Philly’s 6-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry.

Total (47): Over 10-4 in New York’s last 14 at home, and over has been torrid on road for Philly, hitting in nine of last 10.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

Why Chiefs cover: That’s an awful lot of points. Even in a rout, Kansas City could come up with a cheap late score for a backdoor cover. And they’ve got a couple ATS trends in their favor, having covered five straight from underdog role and 11 of 13 catching more than 10 points. Pats just 3-15 ATS last 18 laying more than 10.

Why Patriots cover: Many started pointing out Pats’ inadequacies after losses to Steelers and Giants. Then they smacked Jets pretty good last week on road. Bill Belichick doesn’t mess around with bad teams, going 5-1 ATS last six against sub-.500 squads. And Chiefs are starting someone named Tyler Palko at QB this week, with Matt Cassel potentially out for season with a throwing hand injury.

Total (46.5): Chiefs averaging just 15.7 ppg (27th), with total going low four straight and six of last seven. But Patriots play to over with regularity, with total going high eight of last 10 at home and 21 of last 28 overall. Plus, in Monday spotlight, New England on 5-1-1 over streak.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 11

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NFL Total Bias: Week 11 over/under picks
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The NFL has always loved nicknames and labels.

We grow up learning about The Ice Bowl and the Immaculate Reception, drooling over the silky moves of Sweetness, dreaming of being the guy to heave the perfect Flea Flicker pass into the end zone as time runs out.

Thanks to our friends at ESPN, 2011 was coined the Year of the Quarterback, a clever handle that was not only timely, but extremely marketable – especially the way this season started.

Joe Blow quarterbacks like Rex Grossman, Colt McCoy, Tarvaris Jackson and Chad Henne stepped up to the challenge and posted 300-yard games. Cam Newton spat in the face of his critics with Techmo Bowl numbers, while Tom Brady and Mike Vick lived up to their hype on a weekly basis.

With scorekeepers working overtime, over bettors had cashed in 63 percent of their wagers through the first five weeks of the season. Following the lockout, the league couldn’t have imagined a better start for its Year of the Quarterback.

But as we know all too well, the winds of change blow strong in the NFL.

Five weeks later, it’s quite clear that the Year of the Quarterback (plural) has become the Year of the Quarterback (singular) and that signal caller is undoubtedly Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers.

This week, that distinction comes almost by default considering a rash of quarterback injuries that includes Vick, Henne, Jason Campbell, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, Kevin Kolb, and of course, Peyton Manning.

But while the rest of the league’s quarterbacks fell off the pace or found themselves on the trainer’s table, Rodgers keeps slinging it. He’s a perfect figurehead for Year of the Quarterback too – the reigning champ with just enough swagger to keep him from being a robot and more skill from the position than we’ve seen since Manning and Brady were slugging it out in the stat column.

A bunch of books now have the NFC set as 4-point Super Bowl favorites over the AFC, largely because of what Rodgers has done to lead Green Bay to its perfect start. Rodgers leads the league with 28 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions and with a QB rating of 130.7, is on pace to smash Peyton’s single-season rating of 121.1.

So while it’s probably not the way the league drew it up, it’s nice to see at least one guy holding up to his end of the bargain in the Year of the Quarterback.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14, 48.5)

Right about now, the only thing that can stop Rodgers and the Green Bay offense is some sort of natural disaster. Barring that, you can pencil the cheeseheads in for 35 points a game.

The real question mark in this one is Tampa Bay’s attack. The Buccaneers haven’t managed 20 points during their three-game skid and Josh Freeman is taking a lot of heat. Apparently he’s been playing with a bad thumb, but what he really needs is a little help from his receivers.

Bucs coach Raheem Morris has promised changes after last week’s blowout loss to Houston and they’ll be game for this one.

Pick: Over


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-2, 39)

Even after last week’s shocking win over the Ravens, you have to tread carefully with the Seahawks – especially on the road. They’re averaging fewer than 14 points on the highway this year.

Meanwhile, St. Louis has been held to 14 or fewer points in six of its last seven.

Pick: Under


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2, 43)

Weeks ago, you wouldn’t have picked the Dolphins to be the team coming into Week 11 with all the momentum.

Buffalo is coming off a terrible showing against Dallas last week and it looks as though clubs are catching up to the Bills’ offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. have been held to 18 points over the last four quarters, while Miami has allowed just 12 points over the same span.

The Dolphins’ under train keeps chugging along, having cashed in eight straight.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 15-15


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Week 11 line moves

It’s been a busy week at the sportsbook, with early money moving the NFL Week 11 odds. We chat with Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the board.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins - Open: +9, Move: +7

The Cowboys are winners of two straight games but have padded their record against weak opponents. Washington doesn’t seem like much of a threat, but you can never count out the Redskins against their hated NFC East rivals.

“Washington is a desperate team,” says Rood. “If this game gets away, the season gets away. Any time you get that situation, it’s dangerous.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns - Open: Pick, Move: +1, Move: -1

The Browns are sitting as slight home favorites heading into the Sunday. Bettors like Cleveland in this spot, with a winnable game against a rookie QB on the road.

“The Browns are going to want to pick up this one to appease the home fans,” says Rood. “Cleveland should be getting healthy, too, after being dinged up since Week 2.”

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3, Move: +1, Move: -1

Darren McFadden is doubtful again for the Raiders, who are coming off a big win over San Diego last Thursday. But despite that performance and some extra days of rest, sharp bettors are all over Minnesota.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants – Open: -3, Move: -5

With Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin out for this NFC East battle, the G-Men have moved from field-goal faves to -5 – which Rood tabs as a limbo line. He believes the number won’t even come into play by the time this one finishes late Sunday night.

“I really see it going just two ways,” he says. “The Giants have the ability to pile it on, and the spread could be -12 and they’d still cover. Or, Philly comes out and surprises them. It’s tough to say with Vince Young coming in cold. But he can’t get any worse.”

[Udog]

NFL

Week 11

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NFL betting weather report: Week 11
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Here’s how weather could impact your wagers in Week 11 of the NFL season:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1, 34)

This toilet bowl game gets matching crappy weather, with the forecast in Cleveland calling for a 32 percent chance of showers and winds reaching speeds of up 12 mph at Cleveland Browns Stadium.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1, 43)

The forecast in Miami is calling for a 20 percent chance of rain and winds reaching speeds of up to 15 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 40.5)

Rain is in the forecast for the Bay Area, with a 57 percent chance of showers at Candlestick Park.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5, 46.5)

Rain is expected for the Monday nighter, with a 17 percent chance of showers at Gillette Stadium. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 30s.


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