NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/8 - 11/12)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Friday's game

South Florida won five of last six games vs Syracuse, winning last three here by 14-31-27 points, covering all three as road favorite. Bulls lost at home to Orange LY, 13-9 (-8). Syracuse is 4-4 vs I-A teams, scoring 33+ in all four wins, 21 or less in the losses; they're 3-1 at home, with three of the four games going OT. USF lost its last four games, despite being favored in all four- they turned ball over 10 times last three games. Bulls allowed only two teams (Pitt/Cincinnati) to score more than 24 points, but they've been outscored 71-28 in second half of their four losses. Big East home underdogs are 6-1 against the spread this season.

[Udog]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 11

Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1, 49.5)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Yellow Jackets like to run the ball, but that fits into the defensive strength of the Hokies (No. 6 vs. the run). Meanwhile, GT is not great at stopping the rush, which is also a VT strength.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: The Yellow Jackets rolled over Clemson last week, and seem to have that running train back on track. The Hokies are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight.

Points: In Thursday games featuring VT or GT, the under is 30-10. It is also 4-0 in GT’s last four.

Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave (+34, 71)

Why Houston will cover: Tulane is middle of the pack in yards allowed, but it is 112th in points allowed (36 ppg). Houston’s offense is the best in the nation in scoring (52.7 ppg) and passing (457 ypg). The Green Wave is 3-7 ATS this season.

Why Tulane will cover: Houston is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 on turf. Tulane is capable of moving the ball, giving hope of covering a big home spread.

Points: The teams combine to average more than 800 yards per game.

Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers (+1, 58.5)

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns have been on a roll, crushing every opponent not from Oklahoma since a narrow BYU win in Week 2. The run game is 11th in the nation.

Why Missouri will cover: The Tigers average 245 yards rushing and 255 passing, putting pressure on a defense which is strong against the run and mediocre vs. the pass.

Points: The over is 6-2 in Mizzou’s last eight and 4-1-1 in Texas’ last six.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions (+3, 43)

Why Nebraska will cover: The run game is a force when NU gets an early lead. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS and is dealing with the worst off-field distraction in college football history.

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense ranks No. 8 against the pass and 24th vs. the rush. Take a lead led by the strong rush game, and the Huskers may struggle to keep up.

Points: The under is 3-0 in Nebraska’s last three, and the over has hit just once for PSU all year.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-16.5, 60)

Why Wake Forest will cover: The Deacons have the pass game to stick around. The team has been good for 17-24 points four straight games, which forces Clemson to be very productive to cover.

Why Clemson will cover: Wake Forest has not fared well against teams that throw, and Clemson averages 304 ypg through the air. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS and Wake Forest has been poor on the road, just 2-8 ATS in its last 10.

Points: The over is 6-3 for Clemson and if the Tigers will cover, they’ll likely go over.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5, 76)

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia is a passing team and Cincy ranks 105th at stopping it.

Why Cincinnati will cover: The Bearcats have won six straight, 4-2 ATS. They’ve used a balanced offense to average 39 ppg (11th).

Points: The over has hit in WVU’s last eight games, but the under is 4-1 in Cincy’s last five.

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (+2.5, 46.5)

Why Michigan State will cover: Michigan State’s defense ranks among the best, including No. 2 against the pass. The pass offense has shown big improvements.

Why Iowa will cover: Iowa’s defense is good-not-great, but it ranks higher than MSU’s offense in the similar categories. The team allows yards, but not points. MSU almost lost to Minnesota last week.

Points: Both teams have better defenses than offenses. A typical Big Ten slugfest.

Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (N/A)

Why Florida will cover: South Carolina may be missing its quarterback, and it’s still trying to find a way to replace star RB Marcus Lattimore. Gamecocks QB Connor Shaw suffered a concussion and has been cleared to play, but it was unsure as of Wednesday afternoon if he would. If the Gators can grab an early lead, the third-ranked pass defense should do the rest.

Why South Carolina will cover: Like Florida, South Carolina relies more on the run and has a strong pass D. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five. South Carolina has alternated winning and losing ATS since Week 1. Last week, the Gamecocks lost.

Points: After a couple weeks of hitting the under, both teams are coming off an over game.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+17, 78)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s offense has demolished everyone so far, and TT’s defense already allows 34 ppg. At some point, the Red Raiders will get overwhelmed.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Tech can score with anyone, and the defense, while it has its flaws, is 37th against the pass. OSU’s defense isn’t exactly Alabama, either.

Points: The over is 7-1 in Tech’s last eight, and there’s little reason to believe either team will slow the other.

TCU Horned Frogs at Boise State Broncos (-15, 58)

Why TCU will cover: The Frogs are as balanced as they come, averaging 227 ypg rushing and 224 passing. This game is the season for TCU, so it’s hard to imagine a blowout.

Why Boise State will cover: Aside from an opening win at Georgia (-3), this is the first manageable spread for the Broncos. Their offense ranks top 20 in every category, and the defense is No. 5 against the pass, impressive since most opponents play catch-up.

Points: The over is 7-2 in TCU’s last nine. Both offenses match up well in this one.

Texas A&M Aggies at Kansas State Wildcats (+4.5, 64)

Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies can score in any which way, and KSU is 117th against the pass. Texas A&M’s pass defense is terrible, but KSU doesn’t throw. And the Aggies stop the run.

Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, Texas A&M is 1-7. And the Wildcats are getting points. If you believe in streaks, this is an easy one.

Points: The over is 6-1 in KSU’s last seven, and this is a matchup that could break A&M out of its funk.

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-13.5, 52.5)

Why Auburn will cover: The Tigers have found ways to win the close ones. Georgia’s two losses have come at home.

Why Georgia will cover: The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. Auburn can’t throw but it runs; too bad Georgia ranks No. 8 against it. The offense has been balanced and strong.

Points: Auburn will have to revive a dormant pass game to help out.

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+27, 63.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers are fourth in scoring, and average 246 yards rushing and 257 passing per game. Minnesota can’t stop one dimension of defense, let alone two. UW is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games.

Why Minnesota will cover: The Gophers try to run the ball, both to shorten games and score. The Badgers, if they have a defensive weakness, is slowing the run (47th).

Points: The over has hit in a whopping 11 consecutive meetings.

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini (-1, 49)

Why Michigan will cover: The Illini are reeling, losers of three straight. With a spread that allows simply picking a winner, going with the squad that has Denard Robinson is a good way to go.

Why Illinois will cover: The winner will likely be the team that has the better run game. Both are strong on the ground, but Illinois’ run D is 15th and Michigan’s is 48th. Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.

Points: The under has hit three straight times for both teams.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-14, 55)

Why Tennessee will cover: The Vols have the 14th-best pass defense in the nation, which will help against the Razorbacks.

Why Arkansas will cover: Tennessee can’t run and that matches up well for Arkansas. The offense racks up enough points to do the rest. The Vols are 0-4-1 ATS in the SEC.

Points: The under is 5-0-1 in the Vols’ last six.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers (-42, 49)

Why Western Kentucky will cover: The Hilltoppers can run the ball at times. It should only take 1-2 scores, late in the game against LSU’s reserves, to cover.

Why LSU will cover: If LSU comes out with the same intensity it did at Alabama last week, it could be 42-0 by halftime.

Points: If LSU covers, the over will likely go with it.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (17, 42.5)

Why Alabama will cover: Uh-oh, Bulldogs, the Tide have something to prove. Bama’s defense currently ranks No. 1 in passing yards (130.7), rushing yards (56.3) and points allowed (7.1).

Why Mississippi State will cover: The Bulldogs like to run and the defense, which ranks No. 16 in points and No. 19 in passing, is no sieve.

Points: The over has hit for MSU’s last two, but both teams will be charged by the defenses.

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 65.5)

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks haven’t been in a close game since Week 1. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Why Stanford will cover: While both teams can score, only Stanford has shown the ability to also shut down an opponent. Oregon is fifth in rushing, but Stanford’s defense is third in stopping it. The Cardinal is 9-0 ATS this season.

Points: Both teams have good defenses, but great offenses.

Central Florida Knights at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-8.5, 52)

Why Central Florida will cover: The Knights have a defense that ranks No. 6 in passing, No. 16 in rushing and No. 5 in points. It is the top unit USM’s offense has seen thus far. The offense is only so-so, but is certainly not terrible.

Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles’ offense is 18th in scoring and the defense is 19th in point allowed. UCF is 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including 0-4 on the road.

Points: The under is 7-2 for UCF and 6-3 for USM.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Saturday's best games

Pitt won its last three games vs Louisville by combined score of 96-20; favorites covered five of last six series games. Cardinals won last three games, by 2-17-3 points; they covered last five, but are just 7-11 in last 18 games as home favorite. Panthers lost three of last four games, but covered three of four as an underdog. Pitt is 8-3-2 in last 13 games as road underdog, 0-1 this year. Big East home teams are 6-2 vs spread in games where spread is 4 or less points. Under is 6-1-1 in Louisville games, 3-1 in Pitt’s last four.

Michigan won seven of last nine games against Illinois, winning four of last five visits here- they lost 38-13 in last visit in ’09. Wolverines lost last two road games, but covered five of seven as a favorite this year- since 2008 they’re 1-6 as road favorites, 2-3 as favorite vs Illini. Illinois lost last three games, scoring 7-14-7 points; they lost 67-65 LY in Ann Arbor. Illini is -7 in turnovers the last five games. Since ‘03, Illini are 10-12 as home underdogs. Big 11 home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread if spread is 7 or less points. Under is 5-2 in last seven Michigan games, 6-2 in Illini games.

Since 2003, NC State is 0-10 vs spread as a road favorite, 0-1 this year. Wolfpack lost three of four on road this year, with only win at Virginia. NC State coach O’Brien is former Boston College coach; his Wolfpack won three of last four games, shutting out rival UNC last week, but State lost last three visits here, by 32-20-20 points, as home teams won last five series games. Eagles are 1-7 vs I-A teams, with six of seven losses by 7+ points; they’re 2-3 as home dog under Spaziani, who is Penn State alum, so tough week for him. ACC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 4-1 vs spread. Last three NC State games, seven of last BC games stayed under the total.

Underdogs covered five of last seven Texas A&M-Kansas State games, with teams splitting last four played here and K-State winning last two meetings, 62-14/44-30. Both sides lost last two weeks, with K-State allowing 58-52 points to the Oklahoma schools; A&M allowed 38-41 points in losses to Mizzou/Oklahoma- they’re -10 in turnovers this year, Wildcats are +14. Snyder is 8-4 vs spread in his last dozen games as home underdog; Six of last seven K-State games went over the total. Big 12 home underdogs of less than 20 points are 3-7 vs spread this season.

Visitor won eight of last nine Miami-Florida State games, covering nine of last ten; Hurricanes won four of last five visits here, with dogs 5-1 vs spread in last six series games played here. Three of FSU’s last four series wins were by three or less points. Seminoles won/covered last four games overall, with QB Manuel back in lineup, outscoring foes 96-6 in first half. ‘canes have four losses, but none of them are by more than 8 points. Miami is 7-8 vs spread in its last 15 games as a road dog; Seminoles are 7-3 as home favorites under Fisher. Five of last six Miami games went over the total.

Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight West Virginia-Cincinnati games; WVU won three of last four visits here, with three of the four decided by 5 or less points. Mountaineers allowed 49-31-38 points in last three games; since 2002, they’re 12-5 as a road underdog, 1-0 this year. Bearcats won last six games, the last two by 3 points each- they outscored last five foes 89-28 in second half. UC is 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Cincy was +14 in turnovers its first four games, minus-1 in last four. Last seven West Virginia games went over the total; four of last five Bearcat games stayed under.

Texas won its last six games vs Missouri, last three by average score of 49-19; Longhorns won last three visits here by 34-8-25 points- they’re 2-2 as series road favorite. Texas is 5-1 as favorite this year, 2-0 on road; only teams to beat them are the two Oklahoma schools, both top 5 teams. Mizzou lost four of last six games, but they scored 38+ in three of last four. Tigers are 1-3 in last four games as home underdog. Big 12 home teams are 4-1 vs number when spread is less than 5 points. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Texas games, 3-1 in last four Mizzou tilts.

How weird will Nebraska-Penn State game be after all that happened this week? Athletes generally don’t do well with distractions, and this week has been one huge distraction after another in Happy Valley. Unsure if crowd will show up, and if those who do show up will cheer. Nebraska won three of last four games, losing at home to Northwestern last week; they’re 2-1 on road, with favorite covering all three games. Under is 6-1-1 in Penn State games, 3-0 in last four Nebraska games. No idea how anyone could wager on Penn State in this strangest of games.

Texas Tech upset Sooners in Norman three weeks ago; since then, they’ve lost 41-7/52-20- they’ve now allowed 34+ points in last seven games. Since 2006, Red Raiders are 5-1 as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Home side won eight of last nine Oklahoma State-Texas Tech games; Cowboys lost six of last seven visits here, winning 34-17 (+3) here LY. Only one of Cowboys’ last five series wins was by more than 7 points. State won its four road games by average score of 43-28; they’re 3-0 as a road favorite this season. Over is 7-1 in Texas Tech games, 3-1-1 in last five OSU games.

Michigan State won five of its last six games, but they’ve struggled on road, scoring just 13-10-3 points away from home. Spartans are 6-1-1 in last eight tries as a road favorite. Hawkeyes are 5-0 at home, upsetting Michigan here last week. Iowa won four of last five games vs Michigan State, with Spartans losing last five visits here; underdogs covered six of last nine series games, as Hawkeyes covered last two tries as series home dog. Four of last five Iowa home games went over the total. Iowa is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as a home underdog.

Florida lost four of last five games, outscored 76-20 in second half- they had to hang on to beat Vanderbilt 26-21 last week; Gators covered once in last five tries as a road underdog, but they’re 12-2 in last 14 games vs South Carolina, winning six of last seven visits here. This is first time in at least 15 years Gamecocks are favored to beat Florida. First home game in five weeks for Carolina team that scored 14 or less points in three of last five games- they’re 6-7 in last 13 games as home favorite. SEC home favorites of 12 or less points are 6-2 this year. Under is 5-2 in last seven Carolina games, 2-5 in last seven Florida games.

Underdogs covered five of last six Washington-USC games, with Huskies winning 32-31/16-13 in last two meetings, after Trojans had won previous seven matchups. Huskies are 53, but their losses are by 13 at Nebraska, 44 at Stanford, 17 vs Oregon- they’re 6-15 in last 21 games as road underdog, 1-2 this year. Trojans won four of last five games, scoring 30+ in all five games. USC is 5-10 in its last 15 games as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-8 vs spread, but 2-4 if line is between 10-20 points. Over is 3-1 in last four Washington games, 5-2 in USC’s last seven.

Georgia hasn’t lost since an 0-2 start, covering five of last six games; only two of their five SEC wins are by more than 8 points. Richt covered six of last eight tries as a home favorite. Dawgs won four of last five games vs Auburn; favorites covered six of last nine series games. Tigers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-25-19 points. Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games, with all three losses by 14+ points; they’re 1-3 as a road underdog this season. Double digit home favorites are 9-3 vs spread in SEC games this season. Lack of a quality QB has killed Auburn this year; what if Russell Wilson had one here instead of Wisconsin?

[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 11 line moves

With bowl season just around the bend, teams are either tuning up for the stretch run or looking ahead to next year. We talked to Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming, about the biggest line moves on the Week 11 board.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels – Open: -1, Move: +2.5

With the news that Houston Nutt was stepping down as Ole Miss head coach at the end of the season, bettors have faded the stumbling Rebels in this non-conference matchup. However, Colbert believes the move is not all about Mississippi’s issues.

“Louisiana Tech is playing some good football,” he says. “This move has a lot to do with that. Louisiana Tech is probably surprised it is a favorite in Mississippi.”

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: +1, Move: -1

This spread has flipped with the Illini sitting as slight home favorites. Colbert says good two-way action is coming in on this game, but expects the public to side with a more popular Wolverines squad come gameday.

“I expect this to be a low scoring game,” he says. “Illinois should be able to keep (Denard) Robinson in check and pull out a close win.”

Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons – Open: -12.5, Move: -16.5

According to Colbert, Air Force has been one of the most popular teams among wiseguys the past two weeks. He’s taken nothing but action on the Falcons heading into the weekend and also notes that Wyoming has been a steady go-against team for sharps this season.

“This is kind of a match made in heaven for sharp bettors,” says Colbert. “They get to bet on Air Force and bet against Wyoming.”

Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack – Open: -11.5, Move: -16

Colbert says action on Nevada has been steady, moving the spread from its opening stand of 11.5 to 13 Monday morning, and has continued to climb heading into Saturday. He does, however, expect some public plays to come back on Hawaii and could see this spread closing around two touchdowns.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions – Open: +3, Move +4

While this isn’t the biggest line move on the Week 11 board, the spread for the Nebraska-PSU game has got the most attention this week since news spread of the horror stories coming out of Happy Valley. Colbert says he expects money to come in on the Nittany Lions on gameday.

“This is going to be an emotional game, and I think Penn State is going to go out and try to win one for the Gipper,” he says.”Paterno not being there shouldn’t impact the number, in my opinion.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 12

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College football betting weather report: Week 11
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Check out how weather will impact your college football bets during this Veterans Day weekend.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+17, 78.5)

Strong winds, blowing west at speeds of up to 21 mph, could make it tough for these two pass-heavy offenses to move the ball down the field.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-19.5, 54)

The forecast in Tulsa is calling for winds, blowing south, at speeds of up to 30 mph.

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks (+20.5, 76)

The forecast in Lawrence is calling for 19-mph winds, blowing south at Memorial Stadium.

Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons (-16.5, 61)

Winds are expected to reach speeds of up to 21 mph, blowing SW at the Academy.

Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (+11, 64)

The forecast for Boulder is calling for 30-mph winds, blowing west across Folsom Field.

San Jose Spartans at Utah State Aggies (-10, 54)

Snow is in the forecast for Logan, with a 76 chance of flurries and game-time temperatures in the low 30s.

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini (+2.5, 47)

Winds will reach speeds of 20 mph and blow SSW at Memorial Stadium.

Navy Midshipmen at SMU Mustangs (-8, 61.5)

The forecast for Dallas is calling for 20-mph winds, blowing south from end zone to end zone.

Washington Huskies at USC Trojans (-11, 63.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Los Angeles, with a 57 percent chance precipitation.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-14, 54.5)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing south at Reynolds Razorback Stadium.

Florida Atlantic Owls at FIU Golden Panthers (-17.5, 43.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Miami, with a chance of showers in the second half of Saturday’s Sun Belt contest.

San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams (+13.5, 54.5)

There is a little bit of everything in the forecast for Fort Collins, starting with rain in the second half which could change to snow by the end of the game. Winds will also reach speed of up to 22 mph, blowing west across the field. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 30s.

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (-7, 47)

Snow is in the forecast for Salt Lake City, with a 72 percent chance of the white stuff. Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 30s.

East Carolina Pirates at UTEP Miners (-3.5, 58)

Winds are expected to reach speeds of up to 22 mph and blow WSW, from sideline to sideline at the Sun Bowl.

Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies (+7, 64)

The forecast for Las Cruces is calling for winds of up 25 mph, blowing west across Aggie Memorial Stadium.

Idaho Vandals at BYU Cougars (-21, 46.5)

Snow is in the cards for Provo Saturday. There’s a 71 percent chance of snow early into the game, with game-time temperatures falling into the low 30s. Winds will reach speeds of up to 15 mph, but are expected to die down in the second half.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at New Mexico Lobos (+7, 54)

Rain is expected to hit Albuquerque late into Saturday’s game, with a four percent chance of showers Saturday night.

Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack (-15.5, 61.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Reno, but not until later into Saturday’s game. There’s a 15 percent chance of showers towards the fourth quarter.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars (+12, 62)

The forecast in Pullman is calling for an 83 percent chance of snow for this Pac-12 battle. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 30s with 13-mph winds cooling off the field at Clarence D. Martin Stadium.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 12

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Oregon at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 68)

THE STORY: Last week’s LSU-Alabama showdown was offensively challenged, but that likely won’t be an issue Saturday when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 2 Stanford. The Ducks and Cardinal both average more than 45 points and both teams rank among the top 10 nationally in most offensive categories. Stanford, off to its first 9-0 start since 1951, is aiming to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 18 games. The Cardinal, who are No. 4 in the BCS behind LSU, Oklahona State and one-loss Alabama, are also looking to make a statement and move up in the standings. Oregon has won 18 straight conference games since a 51-42 loss at Stanford in 2009.

TV: ABC 8 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: Stanford opened at -3.5 and the line has remain fairly steady with some movement to -4. The total has moved from 66 to 68 points.

ABOUT OREGON (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12 North, 5-3-1 ATS): LaMichael James, who ranks first in the nation with 151.6 yards rushing per game, had 156 rushing yards last week at Washington for his 22nd 100-yard rushing game. Oregon’s no-huddle offense leads to quick scores, which helps explain why the Ducks rank 51st in the nation in time of possession at only 23:52 per game. Oregon leads the Pac-12 with 29 sacks, while Stanford has allowed only four. Young cornerbacks Troy Hill, Terrance Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu will be tested against Stanford, but the Ducks’ pass defense has been solid all season.

ABOUT STANFORD (9-0, 7-0, 9-0 ATS): The injuries keep piling up for Stanford, which could be without wide receiver Chris Owusu, tight end Zach Ertz, linebacker Shayne Skov, kicker Jordan Williamson and offensive tackle Cameron Fleming. Heisman Trophy favorite Andrew Luck ranks fifth in the nation in passing efficiency while completing 71 percent of his throws with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. Stanford ranks fourth in the nation in third-down conversions. Linebacker Chase Thomas leads the conference in sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (12.5).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin is one of four finalists for the Lombardi Award. The winner will be announced Dec. 7 in Houston.

2. The Cardinal are the only team in the nation to score on every red zone opportunity (52-for-52, 41 touchdowns).

3. The Ducks have won eight of the last nine meetings between the schools, but Stanford leads the all-time series 44-29-1.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Stanford.
* Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

PREDICTION: Stanford 45, Oregon 38 - The Cardinal keep their national title hopes alive in dramatic fashion. Look for the powerful Stanford run game, led by Stepfan Taylor, to be the difference.


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