The Bum's 2011 Breeders Cup Best Bets and Exotics !

[StarDust Bum]

Juvenile Turf

October 29, 2011


Juvenile Turf

1 mile(T); $1 million; 2YO(c&g); Saturday, Nov 5th at 2:02 p.m.



The History



Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip. Trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori teamed up to win consecutive runnings with Donativum and Pounced in 2008 and 2009.



Favorites: 1 for 4 (25%)

Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)

Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)

Average win price: $15.60

U.S based: 2/Foreign based: 2



The Best



FINALE has turned into a different horse since switching to the turf three starts pack. That day, he cruised home to a maiden score at Belmont in a sprint before stretching out successfully to win a minor stakes at Monmouth Park by over ten lengths. Last out in the G3 Summer up at Woodbine, things didn’t go as easily for Finale as they had in his prior two tries as he broke a bit slowly before making a strong move on the turn and eventually grinding out 1 ¾ length score over several he’ll face again in here.



STATE OF PLAY will be making just the third start of his career off of a two month layoff in this but has done nothing wrong so far. After sitting off a fast early pace in his debut when he won by 2 ½ lengths while sprinting, State of Play led them every step of the way in the G2 With Anticpation to win by ½ length. Since then, however, State of Play was scratched out of one race and not entered in another on his schedule.


DULLAHAN had a bit of a troubled trip when third in the With Anticpation before switching to Polytrack and breaking his maiden in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his last start. He finished second in a Saratoga maiden race in his only other turf start. His connections are on the fence as to whether they’ll run in here or the Juvenile.



Like the With Anticpation, the G3 Bourbon at Keeneland has produced several entrants in here, including the winner ANIMAL SPIRITS, who like Dullahan, broke his maiden in a stakes race. Animal Spirits got up in the nick of time in the Bourbon, closing from far back to win by a ½ length.



CASPAR NETSCHER ships in from Europe having already raced nine times in his career, including three wins. Two of the victories came in a pair of G2 stakes before he finished fifth by a length in his first G1 try last out. Though he has an obvious seasoning edge, Caspar Netscher has yet to race past six furlongs.



The Rest



COALPORT beat Illinois breds in his debut before losing the lead in deep stretch of the Bourbon. Third place Bourbon finisher LUCKY CHAPPY was making his first start in three months last out when he came from dead last to get third despite some traffic trouble. From the connections that brought you G1 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Lucky Chappy was supplemented to this for $100K, as was SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH. After flying home to be third in his debut, Shkspeare Shaliyah broke his maiden then won the G3 Pilgrim with a last-to-first run under a vigorous hand ride at Belmont Park.



FANTASTIC SONG broke his maiden at first asking with a furious late rally from last before laying closer to the slow pace in the Pilgrim to finish third as the 8-5 favorite. MAJESTIC CITY tired in deep stretch when second in the Breeders’ Futurity and has won three of his five starts, including the G3 Hollywood Juvenile, all over synthetic surfaces. EXCAPER was third in the Summer, his lone turf start, and owns a win and fourth place finish in the G3 Grey at Woodbine last out, on synthetics. DADDY NOSE BEST was third in the summer and has hot the board in his two other turf tries, including his maiden score.



DADDY LONG LEGS, a G2 winner in England last out heads the rest of the Euro contingent though his first preference is the Juvenile. FARRAAJ was second in a G2 last out, his first attempt against graded stakes foes, after winning his prior two starts. LEARN was fourth in the G1 Racing Post and has won once in four starts. WROTE was third behind Daddy Long Legs after winning his two previous starts, including one at this distance..





The Scenario




Front Runners: Daddy Long Legs, Finale, Learn, Majestic City, State of Play, Excaper
Mid-pack: Dullahan, Farraaj, Wrote
Closers: Animal Spirits, Caspar Netscher, Coalport, Fantastic Song, Lucky Chappy, Shkspeare Shaliyah, Daddy Nose Best


The Strategy



I can honestly say I think the Americans have the upper hand over the Euros this year. And while Finale is the most obvious of the home team, I think he may be tailing off just a tad so don’t be too afraid to use a few others with him.



The Bomb



Shkspeare Shaliyah has a powerful late punch and figures to be a much bigger price than he should be because of his connections. 12-1 or higher are fair odds on him

[StarDust Bum]

The Sprint

November 1, 2011


The Sprint

6 furlongs; $1.5 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 2:37 p.m.



The History



Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, giving Baffert three wins to lead all trainers while Corey Nakatani has won it four times.



Favorites: 6 for 27 (22%)

Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)

Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)

Average win price: $21.70



The Best



Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This race was always the race that was guaranteed to overfill. But with the inception of races like the Dirt Mile, Filly & Mare Sprint and Turf Sprint, it’s really lost a lot of luster. At least the defending champ is here.



BIG DRAMA ran them off their feet last year in the Sprint, going immediately to the front from his rail draw and making every pole a winning one before winning by 1 ½ lengths. After getting a couple of months off, Big Drama came back to the races in the G3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream. Displaying his brilliant speed yet again, Big Drama blazed six panels in 1:08 to win by four lengths. Then it all came crashing down.


Numerous ailments began nagging the precocious sprinter and his regular rider Eibar Coa went down in a horrifying spill that’s left him in pretty bad shape and out of the saddle. When he finally was right in late summer Big Drama beat up on three tremendously overmatched rivals in a made-to-order overnight stakes at Calder that was supposed to be a springboard to the G1 Vosburgh.

But as the old saying goes, “when it rains, it pours” and that’s what literally and figuratively happened as he was forced to miss the Vosburgh, eventually run over a gooey, muddy mess at Belmont due to a cough, leaving him with just two races under his belt since his Sprint score last year.



Keeping the cliché machine working, “one mans loss is another mans gain” and that’s what happened in the Vosburgh as the speedy, wet track loving, NY bred GIANT RYAN, helped by the scratch of Big Drama and an incident at the start of the race, found himself alone on the lead and parlayed his good fortune into his sixth consecutive victory and first G1 score.



After getting trounced in his first two starts, a dirt sprint off nearly a year layoff and a two turn turf race, both at Gulfstream, Giant Ryan shipped up to NY and promptly won a state-bred optional claimer, an open optional claimer and NY bred stakes. Upon his return to Florida, he won a minor stakes at Calder before capturing his first graded stakes in the G2 Smile.



In the race following Giant Ryan’s upset of the Vosburgh, JACKSON BEND took on Uncle Mo and two others in the G2 Kelso. At a tactical disadvantage once the only other speed that figured to keep Uncle Mo entertained on the front end scratched, Jackson Bend made a wild middle move along the inside and for a split second appeared as if he had Uncle Mo but was never able to go by and eventually finished three lengths behind his rival.



The fact that he’s even in this position right now is shocking to most, including myself, when you consider that Jackson bend, after winning four starts in a row to close out his juvenile campaign back in 2009, lost a dozen races in a row. It all changed when he stepped onto the Saratoga main track in July where he won both the James Marvin and G1 Forego at seven furlongs with equally powerful stretch runs, his first two wins against open company.



The Rest



AIKENITE has raced at six furlongs twice in his career, when he won his debut at Saratoga over two years ago and in his most recent outing, a fast closing second place finish in the G3 Phoenix over the Polytrack at Keeneland. In the 20 races in between, he’s raced at six other distances, over turf, dirt and synthetics and at five different racetracks.



AMAZOMBIE sure has had a solid and sometimes eventful 2011 season. He’s hit the board in all eight of his starts, including four wins and was DQed from the win spot in the G3 Los Angeles and placed third back in May at Hollywood. Earlier in the season, he was victorious in the G2 Portero Grande and comes into this off a strong showing in the G1 Ancient Title at Santa Anita where he closed from next to last into a sizzling early pace to in by a ½ length.



After the first four months of the year, it sure looked like APRIORITY would have a say in year end honors in the sprint division. He won two of five starts and was second in the Sunshine Millions behind Amazombie, the G1 Carter to Morning Line and the G2 Churchill Downs Sprint behind Aikenite, losing all three starts by less than two lengths combined. But the wheels fell off when he failed to fire in both the G1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga and last out in the Vosburgh, where he did encounter some trouble at the start.



EUROEARS was another who basically lost all chance at the start of the Vosburgh and he was bounced around and checked a few times soon after the gates opened. Prior to that disaster, he won the G2 Palos Verde on the lead before finishing second in the G1 Golden Shaheen on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Euroears won his first G1 back in late July when he won the G1 Bing Crosby in similar gate-to-wire fashion over the synthetic surface at Del Mar.



One who managed to avoid a calamitous start in the Vosburgh was FORCE FREEZE who oddly enough broke from the rail. Unfortunately, he was faced with the daunting task of chasing Giant Ryan around the speed biased course that day, and though it appeared he had him at the eighth pole, he couldn’t find the ½ length he needed. In his only other stateside start in the past two and half years since returning from Dubai, Force Freeze won a minor stakes at Monmouth over last years G1 Cigar Mile winner and Dirt Mile contender Jersey Town.



Winless in four starts this season, last years Sprint runner-up HAMAZING DESTINY returns for another crack at Big Drama. Hamazing Destiny didn’t get back to the races until July 22 and finished second in the Marvin before failing to fire in the Vanderbilt. A fourth place finish in the Forego, his third start in six weeks was followed by a solid late rally to be third in the Phoenix despite having run terribly in his only other two starts over synthetic surfaces.



The Scenario




Front Runners: Big Drama, Euroears, Force Freeze, Giant Ryan
Mid-pack: Amazombie, Apriority
Closers: Aikenite, Hamazing Destiny, Jackson Bend


The Strategy



As some of my more ardent fans (unfortunately) know, I’m wrong a lot more than I’m right. What they also know is when I take a solid stand against a favorite, I’m usually correct in my assessment. Now I haven’t decided on a selection in here but I can tell you that if Big Drama wins, I will tear up all my tickets. He figures to have plenty of company on the lead and if his connections think he can win this by attempting to rate, they are sorely mistaken.



The Bomb



Hamazing Destiny might be rounding into form at the right time and should benefit from the aforementioned hot pace. His morning line odds of 10-1 are fair but I think he’ll actually go off a bit higher than that.

[StarDust Bum]

Turf Sprint

October 27, 2011


Turf Sprint

5 furlongs(T); $1 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 3:21 p.m.



The History



Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance last year.



Favorites: 1 for 3 (33%)

Shortest: $8.80 (California Flag, 2009)

Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)

Average win price: $33.20

U.S based: 3/Foreign based: 0



The Best



CALIFORNIA FLAG won for the first time in over a year and for just the second time since taking this event back in 2009. Three for four at the distance, his lone defeat came in this event last season when he broke a tad slow and never recovered. Last out in the G3 Morvich going 6 ½ furlongs down the hill at Santa Anita, California Flag sat just off a wicked half mile in :43 2/5 before taking the lead in the stretch and holding on for a half length score. This will be his third start off a two month layoff and he will be running in this even for the fourth consecutive year.


The winner of this race last season, CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE, is back to defend his title sporting just one victory in a minor stakes at Sam Houston in five tries this season. While several in here have defeated him this season, he is returning to his favorite course and distance as he’s won four of his six starts over the course and hit the board in the other two. He finished third in the G3 Turf Monster at Parx last out.



In what may be one of the oddest moves I’ve seen in a while, the connections of CARACORTADO, a late running closer going a distance of ground, are cutting him back to five furlongs, presumably with the hope that an ultra-fast early pace will play into his running style. Caracortado won the Sunshine Millions Turf to start the season, lost five in a row, then got up in the last strides to take the G2 Del Mar Mile in his latest. In his lone turf sprint, he won a second level allowance contest at Hollywood Park last year.



HAVELOCK has won his last four turf starts, including the G3 Woodford at Keeneland from far back in his last start with some mixed results over synthetic surfaces sprinkled in amongst the wins. Trainer Darrin Miller wins with a solid 25% of his turf sprinters.



REGALLY READY set a pedestrian early pace and parlayed it into a neck win in the G1 Nearctic at Woodbine last out at almost 10-1 to punch his ticket for this. A winner of five of eight starts this season, including the G3 San Simeon at Santa Anita and G3 Turf Sprint at this trip over this course, he’s a perfect two for two at Churchill and has won six of nine turf starts in all.



The Rest



Three ladies are set to tackle the boys in this starting with BROKEN DREAMS, who’s won two of her last three including the G3 Maddy at Santa Anita last out. Three-year-old filly HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN returns to the turf off an upset score in the G2 TCA over the Keeneland Polytrack in her last start. Earlier this season she won an allowance contest at Gulfstream going this distance and traveled to England for the Royal Ascot meet where she finished off the board against the boys in a G1.RAPPORT was fourth in the TCA, her first start in over 11 months last out, and will be making her turf debut.



CAMP VICTORY missed by a nose in the San Simeon before winning the G3 Los Angeles via DQ and finishing second in the G1 Triple Bend and G1 Pat O’Brien over synthetics. Last out he failed to fire as the 4-5 favorite in the Morvich. COUNTRY DAY was third in the Woodford and is seeking his first win of the year and just his second career grass victory. GREAT ATTACK is winless in four starts this year but ran into crack turf sprinters, including the injured Bridgetown, earlier in the year.



GRAND ADVENTURE is hoping the third times the charm when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup having run poorly in the 2009 Juvenile Turf and in this event last year. HOOFIT won the G3 Phoenix over the Keeneland Polytrack last out and is a perfect two for two over synthetics since adding Lasix and coming to the states from New Zealand where he won just two of his sixteen starts on grass. PERFECT OFFICER won three of his first four starts to start the year before losing his last three, including a pair of runner-up finishes in the Turf Monster and Woodford.




The Scenario




Front Runners: California Flag, Great Attack, Holiday for Kitten, Rapport, Regally Ready
Mid-pack: Broken Dream, Camp Victory, Country Day, Perfect Officer,
Closers: Caracortado, Chamberlain Bridge, Grand Adventure, Havelock, Hoofit

The Strategy



As has been the case in the first three runnings, this is a crapshoot since the last two winners have serious questions to answer and the other two logical choices might need more ground and could be wheeling back to quickly. I suggest a major spread in multi-race exotics.



The Bomb



Tough to figure out how much money he’ll take, and at post time he might not be a true “bomb” but I think Hoofit is worth a flyer at 10-1 or better. Obviously I’m hoping the Lasix is what has done the trick and not the synthetic surfaces.

[StarDust Bum]

Dirt Mile

November 1, 2011


Dirt Mile

1 mile; $1 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 4:01 p.m.



The History



Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time last year.



Favorites: 0 for 4 (0%)

Shortest: $9.40 (Corinthian, 2007)

Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)

Average win price: $36.50



The Best



Just when I thought the defection of Jackson Bend to the Sprint would be the strangest pre-race development in this event, Mike Battaglia went and made TRAPPE SHOT the morning line favorite despite the fact that he’s never raced at Churchill, at the distance or at a distance other than six furlongs in his four starts this year.



Don’t get me wrong, Trappe Shot is a talented horse. In fact when he shows up, there are few in training that are better, as evident by his magnificent performance in the G2 True North over a muddy Belmont Park strip back in June.


He has, however, failed to battle adversity successfully in his last two starts. In the G1 Vanderbilt two starts back, he was up against a speed biased course when just missing by a nose but good horses are supposed overcome that. And last out in the G1 Vosburgh while he did get bumped slightly at the start, he was in good position on the turn before failing to fire, once again over a speed favoring track. Perhaps this trip will allow him a bit more time to settle and deal with his very minor troubles at the start.



One thing’s for sure, Trappe Shot should have a solid pace to close into because that’s usually the case when THE FACTOR is on the track. Cut from a similar cloth as Trappe Shot, when The Factor is good there are few better. Among his four wins from seven starts are victories in the G2 San Vicente, G2 Rebel and G1 Pat O’Brien, a race he won when making his first start off over four months two back.



But when he doesn’t show, he can be a real money burner, having finished off the board at odds of 3-5, 4-5 and, most recently, at 2-5 in the G1 Ancient Title where he finished fourth after dueling himself into defeat.



Speaking of a speed duel, it would behoove the likes of SHACKLEFORD to avoid hooking up with The Factor early on, but at what price? It’s obvious that Shackleford does his best running on the front end as evident by his gutsy score in the G1 Preakness earlier this season that saw him survive a brisk early pace to hold off G1 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom by a ½ length.



Since the Preakness, Shackleford is winless in four starts, finishing off the board in both the G1 Belmont and G1 Travers, with a second place finish in the G1 Haskell sandwiched in between. More recently, Shackleford finished second in the G2 Indiana Derby.



Who won the Indiana Derby, you ask? Why it was none other than the rapidly improving WILBURN. Though he won two of his first three starts, it wasn’t until three starts back in an allowance contest at Monmouth that it seemed the proverbial light bulb went off in his head.



Wilburn gutted out a ½ length win that day before shipping down to Parx to win a $300K minor stakes over a pair of repeat winners. Then, in the Indiana Derby, Wilburn proved himself a force to be reckoned with, making a brilliant move at the ¼ pole before drawing away to win by a shade under five lengths.



The Rest



CALEB’S POSSE will be making his tenth start of the season at his sixth different racetrack having run at five different distances. After winning a minor stakes at Oaklawn and the G3 Ohio Derby earlier this season, Caleb’s Posse won the G2 Amsterdam and G1 King’s Bishop against Uncle Mo and Saratoga while cutting back in distance and to one turn. In fact, save his debut when he finished second, Caleb’s Posse is unbeaten around one turn and should love this trip.



JERSEY TOWN certainly owns the biggest win at the distance in this field as he upset the 2010 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct at better than 34-1 to end his season last year. He’s winless in three starts since but has been faced with the daunting tasks of trying to beat horse-for-the-course Jackson Bend in the G1 Forego where he finished second and then chased Uncle Mo around Belmont in the G2 Kelso last out before fading to third.



Though he’s raced 33 times, TRES BORRACHOS has done so only once at the distance and never at Churchill Downs. His six starts over conventional dirt leave a lot to be desired as he’s managed only a couple of third place finishes and they came in consecutive starts almost four years ago. He did manage to mildly upset the G2 San Diego at Del Mar three back before finishing off the board in both the G1 Pacific Classic and G1 Goodwood.



TAPIZAR made his return to the races a winning one, defeating the highly regarded Boys At Toscanova and multiple stakes placed Uptowncharlybrown in a 7 furlong Belmont allowance contest last out, his first start since flopping as the 3-10 chalk in the G2 Bob Lewis earlier this year and his first going one turn. He broke his maiden by double digit lengths to close out his 2010 juvenile campaign at Churchill.



IRREFUTABLE fared much better than his stablemate The Factor in the Ancient Title in his most recent, the second consecutive start in which he was taken off the pace after doing the bulk of his best work on the lead earlier on in his career.



The Scenario




Front Runners: Shackleford, The Factor, Wilburn, Tapizar
Mid-pack: Jersey Town, Trappe Shot, Tres Borrachos, Irrefutable
Closers: Caleb’s Posse


The Strategy



It all depends on how you think this race will play out. I think there will be a speed duel while others seem to think The Factor will be able to shake loose. If he does, he’ll be tough, but I’m betting against it.



The Bomb



A tepid shot, at best, with Jersey Town based on the fact that he owns the most attractive win at the distance and the circumstances he’d faced in his last pair. You need 15-1 or better, though.

[StarDust Bum]

The Turf

November 1, 2011


The Turf

1 ½ miles(T); $3 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 4:45 p.m.



The History



Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sort for a decade Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, the dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. Sir Michael Stoute leads all trainers with four wins while Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner four times.



Favorites: 9 for 27 (33%)

Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)

Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)

Average win price: $21.60

U.S based: 11/Foreign based: 17



The Best



It’s a good thing Paul Revere isn’t around to alert us to this British invasion because he’d have to throw in the French and Irish as well then have to steal one of their horses to get word to us because these Euros are that much better than what America has to offer in here. The invasion is led by the French filly SARAFINA.



After passing the Breeders’ Cup off a third place finish in the G1 Arc de Triomphe as a three-year-old last year, Sarafina finished third in her Advertisement



2011 debut before winning three straight including a pair of G2 races and the G1 Prix de Saint Cloud three starts back over multiple G1 winner Cirrus des Aigles. Last out in this years Arc, Sarafina finished off the board for the first time in her ten race career when she failed to kick on after being restrained for the better part of the 1 ½ mile contest.



Another lady taking on the boys in here is 2009 Filly & Mare Turf heroine MIDDAY. After missing by a neck to Shared Account in her title defense in that even last season, Midday’s 2011 campaign was geared at a run towards this as she faced colts in half of her six starts this season after doing so just once in her prior 16 starts.



She’s won twice this season, but both of those have come against members of her own sex, including the G1 Nassau Stakes three starts back. She comes into this off a pair of losses, with a fourth place finish in the G1 Champion Stakes just three weeks ago being her most recent effort.



SEA MOON finished third last out in his first G1 try in the St. Leger where he finished third and will be adding Lasix for his first start against older horses. In his lone start at the distance, Sea Moon roared home to an eight length score in a G2 contest two starts back



Another adding Lasix is ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, who’ll likely be the pacesetter in here. In six starts this year, St Nicholas Abbey has won twice, defeating Midday in the G1 Coronation Cup back in early June before getting beat by Sarafina in the G2 Prix Foy two starts back in September.



The Rest



AWAIT THE DAWN adds Lasix for his U.S. debut coming off a third place finish in the Juddmonte where he snapped a four race win streak. Two for two last season, Await the Dawn won a pair of G2 stakes before tackling G1 foes for the first time to no avail last out. At 7-2 on the morning line, he’s a bit low if you ask me.



BRILLIANT SPEED is the first of four Americans hoping to close the gap on the foreigners in this event. He’s never missed the board in seven turf starts and counts the G3 Saranac at Saratoga two back as one of his two turf wins. Earlier this year, Brilliant Speed captured the G1 Blue Grass then finished off the board in the G1 Kentucky Derby and third in the G1 Belmont Stakes at this distance on dirt.



DEAN’S KITTEN is easily America’s best hope in the Turf this season having finished behind Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti in the G1 Arlington Million two back at 1 ¼ miles before giving Cape Blanco all he could handle in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont last out at this distance when he lost a head bob. Don’t be too surprised to see this guy closer to the top in here on what figures to be a pedestrian pace.



Since breaking his maiden on turf in his second career start, STATELY VICTOR has won just twice in 19 starts since, with both of those victories coming over synthetic surfaces. The upset winner of the 2010 Blue Grass, Stately Victor is winless in six turf starts since that maiden score and appears to be here with the hopes that he’ll like the added distance.



TEAKS NORTH is a dual G1 winner this year on the grass, having taken the Gulfstream Park Turf to begin his season before winning the United Nations at Monmouth two starts back. In between, he’s also captured the G3 Monmouth and finished off the board in his other four tries, including last out in the G1 Sword Dancer back in mid-August, his only start at the distance. When you look at this renewal of the Turf, it’s no wonder that the powers that be moved the Mile to the time slot before the Classic.



The Scenario




Front Runners: Dean’s Kitten, St Nicholas Abbey
Mid-pack: Await the Dawn, Brilliant Speed, Midday, Teaks North
Closers: Stately Victor, Sarafina, Sea Moon


The Strategy



I hate the fact that this race starts the pick four but there’s nothing I can do about it. To me, it looks like the foreigners will get win number 18.



The Bomb



Brilliant Speed, based solely on the fact that I think he’ll like the distance. You have to get 18-1 or better though to even remotely consider it.

[StarDust Bum]

Juvenile

November 1, 2011



Juvenile

1 1/16 miles; $2 million; 2YO(c&g); Saturday, Nov. 5th at 5:25 p.m.



The History



Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006. And of course, Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. D. Wayne Lukas leads all trainers with five scores while Laffit Pincay, Jr. won three Juveniles.



Favorites: 10 for 27 (37%)

Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)

Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

Average win price: $17.40



The Best



A victory by UNION RAGS in here could make him one of the shortest winter book favorites for the Kentucky Derby that we’ve seen in a long time and with good reason. In three starts, he’s done absolutely nothing wrong.



He went off at almost 8-1 when he broke his maiden at Delaware Park from off the pace before dueling in the early stages of the G2 Saratoga Special while on his way to a 7 ¼ length romp. He was easily most impressive, however, last out in the G1 Champagne at Belmont where he was stuck behind a wall of horses for nearly an eighth of a mile before fining a seam and bursting through to win by a going away 5 ¼ lengths.

Out on the West Coast, CREATIVE CAUSE has won three of his first four starts, with wins over both synthetics and conventional dirt, and should probably be undefeated if it wasn’t for a terrible trip two back in the G1 Del Mar Futurity where he was bumped up to second via DQ.



In his two starts prior to that, Creative Control galloped in his debut before coming from off the pace to win the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar. Last out, he sat just off the pace to win the G1 Norfolk in his dirt debut and first try around two turns.



DRILL was actually sent off the 3-5 favorite in the Norfolk coming off a pair of victories, including the Del Mar Futurity. Racing a bit unsettled and rank in the early going of the Norfolk, Drill never really threatened the winner and is taking the blinkers off, most likely as a result of that.



DULLAHAN had a bit of a troubled trip when third in the With Anticpation before switching to Polytrack and breaking his maiden in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his last start. In the first two starts of his career Dullahan finished third and fifth in a pair of sprints over conventional dirt.



The Rest



ALPHA should appreciate the two turns and added distance if his pedigree means anything. A brilliant maiden winner in his debut at seven furlongs, Alpha raced a bit greenly before eventually getting up at the wire to be second in the Champagne.

Starting with a maiden win against open company, FORT LONDON has won his last four starts, all since adding Lasix, including three Florida Stallion Series Stakes at Calder.



CRUSADE and DADDY LONG LEGS both ship in from Europe for the same connections while adding Lasix for their dirt debuts. A two time winner, including a G1 score last out, Crusade has yet to win past six furlongs while his stablemate is two for three, including a G2 win at a mile in his most recent outing.



OPTIMIZER adds blinkers for his first dirt start. Optimizer broke his maiden at first asking before finishing second in the G2 With Anticipation, both over the turf in Saratoga, before flying home to be third in the Breeders Futurity last out. PROSPECTIVE is another making his dirt debut having already had turf and synthetic success. After finishing second in his career debut on turf, Prospective broke his maiden and won the G3 Grey over the synthetic track at Woodbine in his last two starts.



TAKE CHARGE INDY will also be trying the dirt for the first time while making his second start with blinkers. Fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity last out, Take Charge Indy broke his maiden at first asking before closing well to be second in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park.



HANSEN broke his maiden by 12 ½ lengths in his debut sprinting then crushed his foes by 13 ¼ in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile. Both starts were won in gate-to-wire fashion over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.



SPEIGHTCITY was off the board in his debut for a $75K claiming tag on turf before breaking his maiden by 11 ½ lengths in a two turn maiden special weight contest on dirt at Saratoga.



The Scenario




Front Runners: Creative Cause, Crusade, Daddy Long Legs, Fort London, Hansen, Speightcity
Mid-pack: Drill, Prospective, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags
Closers: Alpha, Dullahan, Optimizer


The Strategy



It’s obvious the favorites look tough, hell the third choice is 8-1 on the morning line, but there a few in here trying dirt for the first time that have solid pedigrees as well as a couple of intriguing Euros.



The Bomb



Take Charge Indy should love the dirt and is bred to run all day. That 30-1 morning line price looks phenomenal to me and is definitely worth a win bet even if he’s 20-1.

[StarDust Bum]

The Mile

November 2, 2011


The Mile

1 mile(T); $2 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 6:07 p.m.



The History



Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova is on a current three race win streak in the Mile, making her trainer Freddie Head a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque. Goldikova also makes her rider Olivier Peslier the leading rider in Mile wins.



Favorites: 9 for 27 (33%)

Shortest: $4.60 (Lure, 1993 and Goldikova, 2010)

Highest: $73.38 (Last Tycoon, 1986)

Average win price: $18.70

U.S based: 15/Foreign based: 12



The Best



While carded as the penultimate race of Championship weekend, there are many who feel that this is THE main event as the amazing GOLDIKOVA looks to become the first four time Breeders’ Cup winner having already becoming the only three time winner. Unlike in the past three years, however, it looks like Goldikova might have lost a step, is likely at her most vulnerable point and has to face the last two runner-ups in the event.


This year, he’s finished first or second in all five starts, counting the G1 Prix d’Ispahan, a race she also won last year and the G1 Rothschild, a race she’s now won four times, as her two victories. In her last pair, she failed throw her famous knockout punch in the final furlong, missing by a length in a G1 against the boys before getting out-kicked by the three-year-old Dream Ahead in the G1 Prix de la Foret on the Arc undercard last out.



Since finishing second to Goldikova in 2009, COURAGEOUS CAT has been on a strange journey. In his first start after the Mile, he won the G3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream by a neck in workmanlike fashion and was shipped to Dubai for the $5 million G1 Duty Free despite appearing to be a tired horse. He never fired that day and was given another layoff.



He returned to finish third in the G1 Shadwell before getting yet another extended break that ended with an easy win in the G3 Poker at Belmont in early July. Just three weeks later, he shipped to Hollywood Park and scored his biggest win to date, a neck victory in the G1 Shoemaker Mile. In his last start, he appeared home free in the G1 Woodbine Mile before getting beat a neck.



2010 Mile second place finisher GIO PONTI could go down as the second best horse to never win a Breeders’ Cup event with multiple starts after the great Easy Goer. He’d also have the distinction of finishing second to two of the greatest mares to ever live in Goldikova and Zenyatta.



Now six years of age, Gio Ponti returned to the races in the $10 million G1 Dubai World Cup and finished fifth, beaten less than two lengths in his first start in nearly five months. He returned to the states and finished third in the G1 Manhattan over a course that was probably a bit too wet for his liking before chasing the now retired Cape Blanco around there in both the G1 Man O’ War and G1 Arlington Million where he finished second both times. Gio Ponti won for the first time in five starts this year when he rallied from just off the pace to win the G1 Shadwell Mile for the second consecutive year.



The Rest



BYWORD seeks his third straight win in his U.S. debut having won a pair of graded stakes in his last two starts. Winner of the G1 Prince of Wales last season, just one race after finishing second to Goldikova by a ½ length in the Prix d’Ispahan, Byword lost four in a row after the Prince of Wales and was fifth in this years’ renewal of the Prix d’Ispahan before his brief win streak.



COMPLIANCE OFFICER won the Mohawk against NY breds just two weeks ago before his connections decided to take a shot at glory in here. Since being claimed in his seasonal debut back in May, Compliance Officer has won all five of his starts, including three stakes, but they have all come against statebreds.



Already a winner of over $2.6 million in his career, COURT VISION will be making the 31st start of his career. He’s finished fourth and fifth in the last two runnings of the Mile, is a two time G1 winner at this distance but is winless in four starts over the course.



GET STORMY returns to Churchill already having won the G1 Turf Classic over the course this season on Derby Day. In his three starts since, he was third in the G3 Monmouth behind Turf contender Teaks North, second in the G2 Bernard Baruch and second last out in the Shadwell. His lone loss over this course came in last years Mile when he finished last in a field of eleven.



JERANIMO sat a perfect stalking trip before holding on to win the G2 Oak Tree Mile last out at Santa Anita, his first victory in seven starts this year. He finished third in the G1 Kilroe earlier this season and second to Acclimation in the G1 Eddie Read three starts back when returning from a three month layoff.



MR. COMMONS came flying from last but couldn’t make up the final ¾ of a length to snatch the Oak Tree away from Jeranimo. He’s two for four with a pair of seconds on turf having placed to Caracortado in the Del Mar Mile two back as well.



SIDNEY’S CANDY surprisingly had things his own way on the front end in the Shadwell but couldn’t get the job done despite a fairly leisurely pace for this type going this distance. He did win the G2 Fourstardave at Saratoga in his first start for his new barn back on July 31 before flopping on dirt in G1 Forego. He should have plenty of company on the lead in here.



STRONG SUIT sports Lasix for his U.S. debut coming off a pair of G2 scores. Last year he finished second to Dream Ahead, Goldikova’s spoiler last out, in the G1 Middle Park and is seeking his first G1 score in here, as well as his first past seven furlongs.



TURALLURE has won three of his last four with his lone defeat coming in the paceless Fourstardave. Two back he flew home to win the Bernard Baruch by a going away 2 ¼ lengths before unleashing a more furious late rally to win the Woodbine Mile over Courageous Cat. Unfortunately, he did get the worst of the draw, landing in post 13.



ZOFFANY took tons of money into Gio Ponti last out in the Shadwell and proceeded to “reward” his backers with a flat, dead last finish. Zoffany hasn’t won in nearly 15 months and never past seven furlongs. He’s also lost both starts against older rivals.



The Scenario



Front Runners: Courageous Cat, Get Stormy, Sidney’s Candy, Strong Suit
Mid-pack: Byword, Compliance Officer, Goldikova, Jeranimo,
Closers: Court Vision, Gio Ponti, Mr. Commons, Turallure, Zoffany


The Strategy


The toughest thing to do in here might be to separate your head and wallet from your heart. If you love this sport, it’s hard not to root for either Goldikova to make history or for a horse like Gio Ponti, who deserves to win one of these, to stop it from happening. Good luck with that.



The Bomb



It scares me when a trainer like Andre Fabre knows horses like Goldikova and Gio Ponti are in a race yet puts his horse on a plane anyway, so he’s the play at 12-1 or better.

[StarDust Bum]

The Classic

November 3, 2011


The Classic

1 ¼ miles; $5 million; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 7:00 p.m.



The History



You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o’ Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic Victory the following year.



In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10 for 10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.



Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans in 2000 and 2001, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two time winners of the race.



Volponi blew up the toteboard, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1.Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth as the sports leading money winner in 2008.



Finally, the great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in last years renewal and finishing he career with 19 wins from 20 starts.



The Classic indeed!!!!



Favorites: 8 for 27 (29%)

Shortest: $3.40 (Cigar, 1995)

Highest: $269.20 (Arcangues, 1993) *Highest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*

Average win price: $29.00





The Best



The role of 5-2 morning line favorite rests on the shoulders of UNCLE MO. In one of the more remarkable stories of the past decade, it’s amazing the Uncle Mo is even around to run in the Breeders’ Cup, let alone come into the race as the favorite and with a more than reasonable chance at winning.



After capping off an undefeated juvenile season with a crushing 4 ½ length score in the Juvenile, the next several months after are a mystery. Questions like “did he have ankle surgery to remove chips?, was he pin-fired?, was he sick?” were all questions that arose when he returned in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream, an overnight stakes that took the place of what was supposed to be his return, the G2 Tampa Bay Derby.

He didn’t look like the Uncle Mo people remembered from 2010 but he sure ran like him, galloping home almost four lengths ahead of his overmatched rivals while galloping out strongly after the mile affair. In the G1 Wood Memorial, what was supposed to be his final prep for the G1 Kentucky Derby, the rumors gained momentum as he tired in the final furlong after setting a strong pace throughout to finish third. And though he shipped to Kentucky for the Derby and was entered, he was scratched the day before the race when things just didn’t seem right.



The next few months would be critical in the survival of Uncle Mo. He was sent to WinStar farm to get evaluated and recuperate from what turned out to be a rare liver ailment and, after it was rumored he was at death’s door, starting gaining weight and resumed training.



The G1 King’s Bishop was the site of his return up at Saratoga and it looked like he was going to win but got nailed in the last couple of strides by Caleb’s Posse. There would be no doubts in the G2 Kelso however as John Velazquez put him on the lead, held off a middle move by Sprint contender Jackson Bend, and drew off to a three length win, stopping the clock in 1:33 4/5 over a muddy Belmont Park strip for trainer Todd Pletcher.



In recent days, many have questioned his fitness, have knocked his training style and continue to question his ability to get this trip. While they are all valid gripes, the great ones overcome these adversities. He’ll answer the question of his greatness, one way or another, come Saturday.



I must say, especially in the age where fillies like Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta have proved that when you’re great in this sport gender really doesn’t matter, I was surprised that HAVRE DE GRACE was not made the morning line favorite, because on paper no one in this field has accomplished more this season.



Starting her year with a romp in the G3 Azeri at Oaklawn, Havre de Grace came back to win the G1 Apple Blossom by the easiest ¾ of a length you’ll ever see. Her brilliance was on display again when she won the G3 Obeah, the local Delaware Park prep for their signature event, the G2 Delaware Park Handicap which was shaping up to be yet another showdown between Havre de Grace and archrival Blind Luck. They didn’t disappoint.



In what some have called one of the greatest races they’ve ever seen, the two powerful fillies hooked up at the quarter pole and weren’t separated by more than a half length with Blind Luck getting her nose down on the wire, making Havre de Grace winless in both starts at this distance.



Havre de Grace took on the boys in the G1 Woodward and rallied from mid-pack to win by 1 ¼ lengths before cruising to an 8 ¼ length romp in the G1 Beldame over a muddy track at Belmont last out. She finished third in the Ladies’ Classic last year for former trainer Tony Dutrow before being transferred to current trainer Larry Jones. Ramon Dominguez will ride from post 9.



The Classic will be a bit of a homecoming for FLAT OUT as he’s stabled at Churchill most of the year though he’s finished off the board in both of his starts under the famed twin spires for his trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey.



Quarter cracks have plagued Flat Out for most of his career, but it seems he’s finally overcome them and has turned the corner. Since a sixth place finish in the G1 Stephen Foster at Churchill, Flat Out has raced exclusively in New York. It must be true what they say about the water, because it’s like he’s turned into a different horse, especially at Belmont. In his first start in the Empire State, Flat Out rolled to a convincing 6 ½ length score in the G2 Suburban back in July and just last out took the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in by a workmanlike 2 ¼ lengths over several rivals he’ll face again in here in his lone start at the Classic distance.



In two starts at Saratoga in between his Belmont wins, Flat Out finished second to the recently retired, one time Classic contender Tizway in the G1 Whitney before a runner-up finish to Havre de Grace in the Woodward. Much to the chagrin of Dickey, Flat Out will break from post 1 under Alex Solis, who won this in 2003 aboard Pleasantly Perfect, after Prayer for Relief was forced to scratch out of the Classic due to a fever.



One thing that is missing from the resume of international training superstar Aidan O’Brien is a Classic victory and this year he’ll try and scratch it off his bucket list by sending out 1 ¼ specialist SO YOU THINK.



O’Brien is adding both Lasix and blinkers to So You Think who’s coming into this off of a pair of defeats, the only time that’s happened in his career. Overall, he’s seven for nine at the distance, though all of his races have come on the turf. His pedigree doesn’t necessarily suggest he’s crying out to run on dirt, but his build and affinity for the distance should help his cause. Combine that with the fact that every contender in here have their own questions to ask, this might be O’Brien’s’ best shot to win one of these.



So You Think began his career in Australia, where he won six G1 races including the prestigious Cox Plate in both 2009 and 2010 before winning a pair of G1s this year in Europe. Ryan Moore rides from post 4.



The Rest


GAME ON DUDE would certainly have to be considered a Horse of the Year candidate should he win the Classic. Like Drosselmeyer, Game On Dude was shelved after finishing fourth in last years Belmont and returned in January to win a second level optional claimer from just off the pace.



In one of the more controversial races of the year, Game On Dude gutted out a nose victory, then survived a 17 minute inquiry to win the G1 Santa Anita Handicap in his first start under Chantal Sutherland. He’d go winless in his next four races, finishing second in the G3 Charles Town Classic and in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup by a nose.



A fourth place finish in the G1 Pacific Classic off a brief layoff was followed by a ½ length score in the G1 Goodwood last out where he set early fractions before holding off a late rally of the nine-year-old Awesome Gem for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. His work this past weekend, which was supposed to be in company, turned out to be more of a trial race as the two Baffert workers came across two more workers and it forced Game On Dude extremely wide but also made him rate and actually close ground in the stretch. That could help him avoid a likely speed duel in here. He’ll break from post 7.



STAY THIRSTY, like Game On Dude, wave to be given a long look in regards to the top Eclipse honor should he find a way to mildly upset this field. In the shadow of Uncle Mo throughout most of his career, Stay Thirsty really stepped up to field his stablemates void since finishing twelfth in the Kentucky Derby.



His second place finish in the Belmont by less than a length might have turned into a victory had he not been stuck down along a dead rail. Upon returning to arguably his favorite track, Saratoga, Stay Thirsty put in two top notch efforts, winning the G2 Jim Dandy by a comfortable three lengths before turning in one of the best efforts in the G1 Travers in recent memory, overcoming a slight bobble at the break to run hard every step of the way en route to a 1 ¼ length victory for Pletcher.



Last out in the Jockey Cub Gold Cup, he raced a few lengths off the pace and held well to finish third despite not appearing to handle the muddy track, sentiments echoed by his regular rider Javier Castellano after the race. Castellano piloted Ghostzapper to a stakes record setting win in the 2004 renewal of this race. Stay Thirsty will break from post 8 and has been rumored to be training much better than his more popular stablemate



Much like last season, TO HONOR AND SERVE seems to be getting good at the right time. Last fall, To Honor and serve won the last three starts of his juvenile campaign in autumn, including the G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen in easy fashion at Aqueduct.



When he returned this year from a three month layoff in the G2 Fountain of Youth, To Honor and Serve tired after making a solid middle move into eventual winner Soldat and followed that effort up with a third place finish in the G1 Florida Derby after receiving a curious ride. It was discovered he had a slight suspensory injury after that race and was forced to miss the Triple Crown races.



He attended a fast early pace in the G2 Amsterdam going 6 ½ furlongs at Saratoga before tiring late then came back with an authoritative 8 ½ length score in an optional claimer. Last out, To Honor and Serve rolled home to a 2 ¼ length, track record setting score in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won this back in 1995 with the incomparable Cigar. Jose Lezcano returns from post 11.



Another sent out by Mott is DROSSELMEYER, who’s been victorious in just one of his six starts since capturing the 2010 G1 Belmont Stakes. That win came in a minor stakes at Belmont, a prep for the G2 Brooklyn in his third start off an extended layoff, a race he finished second in to loose-on-the-lead stablemate and Marathon contender Birdrun.



Earlier this year he was off the board in his return, the G3 Skip Away and finished last in the G1 Sword Dancer on the turf. Last out, he raced inside early on, a place he doesn’t like to be before swinging wide on the turn to make up a good chunk of ground to be second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.



Drosselmeyer, who’s trained brilliantly since his Churchill return, the track he broke his maiden over, will be reunited with Mike Smith, who rode him in the Belmont. Smith, who won the 1997 Classic with Skip Away and of course piloted the amazing Zenyatta to her 2009 score against the boys, should be able to overcome their inside, post 2 draw.



RULER ON ICE parlayed his love of wet tracks into the biggest win of his career when he sat just off the pace en route to his upset of the Belmont Stakes back in June when he raced in blinkers for the first time for trainer Kelly Breen.



In his three subsequent starts, Ruler On Ice has been a bit further of the pace, with a third place finish in the G1 Haskell coming before he seemed to fire his best shot when fourth in the Travers. Last out in the Pennsylvania Derby, Ruler On Ice was taken further back than he had ever been in his career and responded with a hard charging second place finish in his first start under Garrett Gomez. Gomez is back aboard in here from post 3 and is looking for back to back Classic scores having been aboard Blame in his win over Zenyatta in one of the most memorable moments in the history of the sport.



HEADACHE has turned it up a notch in the past six months, winning three of his four starts with his lone defeat coming in the Whitney where he completely missed the break and found some traffic trouble on the far turn before winding up fifth.



In his two starts before the Whitney, Headache defeated optional claimers by 7 ½ lengths at Churchill before shipping in the Prairie Meadows to capture the G3 Cornhusker by 2 ½ lengths over Awesome Gem. In his last start, Headache rallied from far back into an ordinary pace to win the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup by a ½ length in a field that included Marathon runners Cease and Giant Oak.



A former claimer, Headache has run 26 times, most for trainer Mike Maker, is three for seven with a second and third over the course and has hit the board in all three of his starts at the distance, including that win last out. Paco Lopez rides from post 10.



RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE was a late arrival to the dance, seemingly coming from nowhere as a last minute pre entry. Eligible for a second level allowance contest, Rattlesnake Bridge owns just a maiden score and neck victory in the Long Branch at Monmouth as far as the win column is concerned but has hit the board in several graded stakes and did finish second to Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer.



In his most recent efforts, Rattlesnake Bridge closed from the back of the pack to come within a 1 ¼ lengths of winning the Travers before tiring a bit after coming with a wide run on the far turn to end up third in the Pennsylvania Derby. Calvin Borel rides for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who won this in 2006 with Invasor, from post 6



ICE BOX hasn’t come close to repeating his efforts in the 2010 G1 Florida Derby or Kentucky Derby, races he won by a nose and finished second by 2 ½ lengths with a troubled trip, for Hall of Famer Nick Zito.



In fact in seven starts since the Derby, he’s manages to hit the board just once in an optional claimer at Saratoga three starts back. He beat just two horses in the Woodward before finishing dead last in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last out. Corey Nakatani rides from post 5.



The Scenario



Front Runners: Game On Dude, Stay Thirsty, To Honor and Serve, Uncle Mo
Mid-pack: Havre de Grace, So You Think
Closers: Drosselmeyer, Flat Out, Headache, Rattlesnake Bridge, Ruler On Ice, Ice Box

The Strategy


I feel that every favorite has a serious question to answer, so this one appears to be up for grabs. A spread, especially in all multi-race exotics is suggested.



The Bomb



Headache should be a crazy price and could come running late at what figures to be a fast pace. If it falls apart, stranger things have happened. 25-1 or better is adequate.

[StarDust Bum]

Breeders' Cup Facts and Figures

November 1, 2011

Favorites are 75 for 222 (34%) in the 27 year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 19 for 45 (42%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.

Only one of the 36 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher have won when Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.

Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Fourteen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including both Dancing In Silks in the Sprint and Man of Iron in the Marathon in 2009.

Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 44 races overall, including a remarkable 35 of the 76 (46%) run on the grass. They’ve won five dirt and four synthetic track races.

Only 10 of the 71 attempts at winning Breeders’ Cup races in consecutive years have been successful, with Goldikova accomplishing the feat twice. Four horses – Shared Account, Eldaafer, Chamberlain Bridge and Big Drama – will try to join those ranks this year.

Five winners have come back two years later, with Da Hoss being the lone winner. California Flag will attempt to do so in this years Turf Sprint, a race he’ll be running him for the fourth consecutive year making him the only horse to ever run in every running of an event.

Zenyatta is the only horse to ever win two different events. This year, Midday will try to do so in the Turf having won the 2009 Filly & Mare Turf while last years Juvenile winner Uncle Mo will look to do so in the Classic.

Goldikova is looking to become the first horse to ever win four Breeders’ Cup races and could do so with a victory in the Mile.

Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races
Bayakoa – Distaff – 1989, 1990
Conduit – Turf – 2008, 2009
Da Hoss – Mile – 1996, 1998
Goldikova – Mile – 2008, 2009, 2010
High Chapparal – Turf – 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)
Lure – Mile – 1992, 1993
Midnight Lute – Sprint – 2007, 2008
Miesque – Mile – 1987, 1988
Ouija Board – F&M Turf – 2004, 2006
Tiznow – Classic – 2000, 2001
Zenyatta – Ladies’ Classic, 2008 -- Classic, 2009