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**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:04 AM

Breeders' Cup: Pace should suit improving Cease in Marathon

Barbara D. LivingstonCease has come into his own since an off-the-turf victory at Saratoga during the summer. In a Breeders’ Cup Marathon lacking multiple speed threats, he figures to get a trip just off the expected pacesetter Birdrun.The longer the race, the more important the pace.

This racing axiom is older than dirt, but it’s worth dredging up in the context of the Grade 2, $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon because – at a distance of 1 3/4 miles – the Marathon is about as long as races get in this country these days.

“Pace is important in every race,” notes trainer Al Stall Jr. “The longer the race, the more of a chance the pace can get away from you, if you go too fast in the middle stages. I think that true class comes out in longer races.”

Stall’s viewpoint is helpful, but he is not exactly an objective observer in this particular instance. Stall trains Cease, and even if you for a moment completely ignore the pace setup in this Marathon, Cease would still be a top threat to win it.

Simply put, Cease has been a revelation since discovering dirt racing only last August. That discovery came in an off-the-turf maiden race at Saratoga, and Cease won by the length of the stretch in fast time. He came back with another dominant score at the Spa and then last time out finished a sharp third, despite a massive class jump, in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Cease is already good enough to win the Marathon, even if he is easily the most inexperienced member of the field with but six career starts. And yet, because he is so lightly raced, Cease has the best chance of any to deliver a breakthrough performance Saturday, because he has by far the most room to improve.

But when you factor pace into the equation, Cease’s chances look even better. Birdrun, who won the 12-furlong Brooklyn last June and who figures to improve off a sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his recent return from a 2 1/2-month freshening, is the lone true front-runner in the field. That certainly makes Birdrun one to respect. But Cease, who has never been that far off the early lead in shorter races, should be a major pace player, too.

When you look around in this Marathon, you wonder where the other speed might be. There isn’t any from the U.S. side, and the three European Marathon entrants – Brigantin, Meeznah, and Harrison’s Cave – are a tricky read. Unless one of them takes unanticipated initiative early, the fact that they come out of slow-paced European races suggests that they won’t be prominent early. This means that Birdrun and Cease could end up walking in the early stages. And that would be problematic for A. U. Miner, Pleasant Prince, Giant Oak, and Eldaafer, the most respected closers in this Marathon.

For the most part, Stall agrees with this pace scenario.

“We’ll be on the pace, or close to it,” he said. “We can watch Birdrun from the three-quarter pole to the quarter pole first time around, see what he does, and take it from there. I do think the pace will be easy. That’s why we worked him slow Monday. We already know with his natural style that he will be close to the pace.

Breeders' Cup Marathon: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

“But the real reason he’ll be tough is because he’s a good horse. We didn’t know it until he hit dirt accidentally, thanks to Mother Nature. But we do now.”

None of the Europeans have ever raced on dirt, but Brigantin is still dangerous. Brigantin finished third in two 20-furlong Group 1 races this year, one of them the revered Ascot Gold Cup. It’s also timely to note that in his one Group 2 victory this season, Brigantin nosed Dunaden, winner of the prestigious Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

Pace or not, A. U. Miner will take some beating. A. U. Miner, who was moved up to third in last year’s Marathon, was a gaining fifth most recently in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while coming off the same layoff Birdrun was. Before that, A. U. Miner scored decisively over Birdrun in the Greenwood Cup, but was subsequently disqualified from the purse money because of a drug positive.

Giant Oak owns this field’s biggest win this year, that coming in the Grade 1 Donn last February. But Giant Oak is 0 for 6 since and seems well below his Donn form.

Eldaafer won this race last year at 10-1, but was in sharper form then than he appears to be now.

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HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS
Cease
A. Stall Jr. G. Gomez 98, 99, 102 Lightly raced gelding emerged after moving to dirt; still has room to improve 9-2

Brigantin
A. Fabre J. Leparoux n/a, n/a, n/a Third in two Euro Gr. 1's this year going 20 furlongs; dirt is the big question 8-1

A. U. Miner
C. Hanna C. Borel 102, 97, 84 Finished well when fifth vs. better in JC Gold Cup; placed 3rd in this last year 3-1

Birdrun
W. Mott J. Velazquez 99, 93, 96 Sixth in JC Gold Cup and like 'Miner,' he should be tougher second off layoff 5-1

Pleasant Prince
W. Ward J. Rosario 99, 59, 89 Big winner of an overnight stakes last time; seems the type who'll run all day 8-1

Giant Oak
C. Block S. Bridgmohan 92, 100, 101 Beaten chalk in this last year; disappointed last time in Hawthorne Gold Cup 6-1

Eldaafer
D. Alvarado J. Castellano 86, 95, 90 Won this last year, but was in better form then; form this year is erratic 10-1

Harrison's Cave
A. O'Brien R. Moore n/a, n/a, n/a Has won two of last three, but is far from the best this barn has sent over 20-1

Meeznah
D. Lanigan T. Queally n/a, n/a, n/a Euro filly won a Group 3 at this distance in July; yet another unknown on dirt 15-1

Baryshnikov
M. Maker M. Smith 77, 96, 89 Fine third in turf two starts back, but has never been as effective on dirt 15-1

Afleet Again
R. Reid Jr. C. Velasquez 81, 80, 80 Finished third behind 'Miner,' Birdrun in Greenwood Cup in July; shaky since 30-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:07 AM

Breeders' Cup: Juvenile Turf field shapes up tough

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Keep studying. Cram if you need to. Examine every statistic and nuance you can find regarding the 14 horses in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, then make your best guess – like everyone else.

Here’s the first clue as to how tough the Juvenile Turf shapes up: The morning-line favorite is 4-1, and there’s a chance that he won’t even be favored. He is Majestic City, who has never raced on grass, and although he ran big in the Del Mar Futurity and Breeders’ Futurity, some of the other 2-year-olds facing him already have shown flashes of brilliance on turf.

“This looks like such a tough race,” said Al Stall Jr., who will saddle Animal Spirits, winner of the Grade 3 Bourbon on the Keeneland turf, as one of the many logical contenders. “Even without talking about the Euro horses, it looks really deep, with horses like Lucky Chappy, Finale, State of Play, and some of the others.”

Majestic City, with Garrett Gomez to ride from post 8, figures as one of the early goers among plenty of speed in this 1 1/16-mile race, along with Excaper, Finale, and State of Play. And that doesn’t even account for the running style of the three Europeans in the field – Faraaj, Wrote, Caspar Netscher – although they typically don’t have the kind of early speed of their North American counterparts.

Stall, who enjoyed the greatest day of his career at the Breeders’ Cup last year when sending out Blame to defeat Zenyatta, is hoping a swift pace could set things up for a stretch runner – namely, Animal Spirits, who breaks from post 10 under Robby Albarado.

“The strategy is very simple for our horse,” he said. “Place himself well, go along smooth, and hopefully come flying like Pluck did last year.”

Pluck captured the 2010 Juvenile Turf for Team Valor International, the ownership entity that in May teamed with Graham Motion to upset the 137th Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom. Motion trains the uncoupled duo of Lucky Chappy (post 12, Joel Rosario) and State of Play (post 14, Ramon Dominguez). Lucky Chappy, an Irish-bred imported from Italy this summer, rallied to be third in the Bourbon after an awful start; State of Play is unbeaten in two career races and enters off a front-running score in the With Anticipation at Saratoga.

“They are very different horses,” Motion said. “Lucky Chappy is a very European type. He had a rough go last time in that he walked away from the gate – typical of the European first time. I don’t think he’ll do that Saturday.

“State of Play is very professional, a really good horse. I feel very good about running him.”

Finale (post 13, John Velazquez), winner of two turf stakes this summer, is trained by Todd Pletcher, who won last year with Pluck.

As for Majestic City, he has worked twice on the turf at his Santa Anita home base.

“I don’t have much doubt he’ll handle the grass,” trainer Peter Miller said.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

As usual, the Europeans sport form that American handicappers often find vexing. Suffice it to say that Wrote (post 5, Ryan Moore) is a Coolmore colt trained by Aidan O’Brien, top-shelf credentials without knowing anything else, and Faraaj (post 4, Neil Callan) has run well in all four starts in England. Perhaps most dangerous of all, though, is Caspar Netscher (post 7, Kieran Fallon), whose nine-race r é sum é makes him the most experienced in the field.

Caspar Netscher comes out of four straight group races, all at six furlongs, in his native England. Regarding the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Juvenile Turf, “his pedigree suggests (he can handle) it, and he finished up really well in his last race,” said trainer Alan McCabe. “He has physically and mentally improved throughout this year.”

Rounding out the Juvenile Turf lineup are Fantastic Song, Shkspeare Shaliyah, Coalport, and Daddy Nose Best, and Tequila Factor, the last of whom makes the race as No. 15 with the early scratch of Gung Ho. Trainer Mike Maker said Gung Ho was sore in his hind end. Gung Ho was scheduled to break from post 1, meaning all other starters will move in one spot, with Tequila Factor breaking from post 14 in the 1 1/16-mile race.

The Juvenile Turf was first run in 2007 at Monmouth Park. It is carded as the fourth of 12 races and leads off the first 50-cent pick four wager (races 4-7) of the day. Post time is 2:02 p.m. Eastern.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

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HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Farraaj
R. Varian N. Callan n/a, n/a, n/a Solid English form makes him a logical win threat; well bet in every start 10-1

Caspar Netscher
A. McCabe K. Fallon n/a, n/a, n/a Beaten only a length in a 16 horse Group 1 last time; stretching out; intriguing 8-1

State of Play
H. G. Motion R. Dominguez 80, 68 Stake he won at Sar got a boost when third finisher won Breeders' Futurity 5-1

Wrote
A. O'Brien R. Moore n/a, n/a, n/a Was an okay third in his first attempt at the group stakes level last time out 8-1

Finale
T. Pletcher J. Velazquez 81, 77, 79 Perfect in three starts since switching to turf; versatile running style; obvious 9-2

Animal Spirits
A. Stall Jr. R. Albarado 79, 68 Took a step forward to win eventful Bourbon; chance with more improvement 10-1

Lucky Chappy
H. G. Motion J. Rosario 75, n/a, n/a Gaining third in Bourbon in his U.S. bow; is also moving in the right direction 10-1

Majestic City
P. Miller G. Gomez 84, 89, 89 Fine second in Breeders' Futurity; strong synthetic track record says he'll turf 6-1

Shkspeare Shaliyah
D. Shivmangal A. Solis 73, 77, 70 Question if his Pilgrim score was attributable to the extremely deep going 15-1

Coalport
W. Catalano J. Alvarado 78, 67 Creditable second in the Bourbon; just think several others here are better 20-1

Excaper
I. Black E. Wilson 67, 79, 64 Game second to Finale in the Summer; contention here just runs so deep 20-1

Fantastic Song
C. Brown J. Castellano 71, 68 Fair third as the favorite in the Pilgrim; needs a big Beyer boost, however 20-1

Daddy Nose Best
S. Asmussen J. Leparoux 72, 72, 66 Soundly beaten third to Finale in Summer Stakes; must do better than that 30-1

Tequila Factor
W. Catalano R. Bejarano 71, 65, 67 Has won two grass stakes, but they were not tough races; overmatched 30-1

Gung Ho
M. Maker M. Smith 72, 71, 49 Scratched -

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:13 AM

Breeders' Cup: Big Drama back to defend title in Sprint

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Big Drama and trainer David Fawkes return to the scene of their finest hour Saturday at Churchill Downs when they try to defend their title in the $1.5 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Fawkes has not one, but two chances to join Bob Baffert and Jenine Sahadi as the only trainers to send out back-to-back winners in the Sprint. Fawkes also has Apriority amongst the nine-horse field that includes, from the rail out, Euroears, Giant Ryan, Aikenite, Hamazing Destiny, Jackson Bend, Force Freeze, and Amazombie. Big Drama and Apriority will break from the extreme outside in posts 8 and 9, respectively.

Big Drama led throughout under jockey Eibar Coa to defeat Hamazing Destiny by 1 1/2 lengths in the 2010 Sprint. Coa was left temporarily paralyzed in a riding mishap this past winter at Gulfstream Park. Ramon Dominguez takes his place aboard Big Drama on Saturday.

Big Drama has started just twice since sewing up divisional honors and an Eclipse Award with his victory in the 2010 Sprint, and only once since setting a track record capturing Gulfstream Park’s Grade 3 Mr. Prospector on Jan. 15. Fawkes lost the opportunity to get in an important prep for his star when Big Drama was withdrawn from the Grade 1 Vosburgh after spiking a temperature the day before the race.

“Naturally, I’m a little nervous not having gotten that race under our belt,” Fawkes said. “But the horse is doing excellent, and I think he’s certainly fit enough coming off the deeper track at Calder.”

Fawkes also said he does not expect Big Drama to be on the lead as was the case in last year’s Sprint.

“Neither of my horses have to be on the lead, although I think Big Drama will certainly be more forwardly placed than Apriority,” Fawkes said. “I think this is a real good race with a very evenly matched field, and naturally you feel a little more pressure to win coming in with the defending champ.”

Apriority ran in the Vosburgh, but finished a well-beaten seventh after being steadied sharply shortly after the start. Like Big Drama, Apriority also is familiar with the Churchill Downs surface, having been beaten a nose by Aikenite in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Not surprisingly, the Sprint is loaded with speed horses, the quickest of whom may be Euroears who seeks to rebound after finishing far back following early trouble of his own in the Vosburgh. Euroears won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby this summer at Del Mar in his first start since travelling to Dubai to finish second in the Golden Shaheen.

Trainer Bob Baffert said he’s not overly concerned by the fact Euroears drew the rail.

“He’s just as likely to break slow from the outside as he is the rail, but at least if he breaks slow he’ll have room to negotiate, unlike in the Vosburgh when he got caught in traffic,” Baffert said.

Giant Ryan breaks alongside Euroears and also figures to show some early foot coming off his wire-to-wire, half-length victory over Force Freeze in the Vosburgh. The win was the sixth straight for the New York bred, a former claimer, who is trained by Bisnath Parboo.

An early speed duel would enhance the chances of Jackson Bend, Force Freeze, and Amazombie.

Trainer Nick Zito opted to enter Jackson Bend in the Sprint rather than his first preference, the Dirt Mile. Jackson Bend, who is undefeated at distances of seven furlongs or shorter, was second best in the Grade 2 Kelso behind Uncle Mo after rallying from well back to capture the Grade 1 Forego this summer at Saratoga.

Breeders' Cup Sprint: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

“I decided to go in the Sprint for several reasons, including pace and the depth of the Dirt Mile field,” Zito said. “In addition, I think a victory in the Sprint could earn Jackson Bend an Eclipse Award.”

Force Freeze has started just twice since returning from Dubai and being switched to trainer Peter Walder’s barn late this spring. Force Freeze defeated Grade 1 winner Jersey Town by four lengths winning the Teddy Drone at Monmouth Park on July 31 before finishing second over a sloppy track in the Vosburgh.

“I thought he ran a great race in the Vosburgh, considering he was against the bias and racing over a track I don’t think he cared for,” Walder said.

John Velazquez will be aboard Force Freeze for the first time in the Sprint.

Amazombie comes off his most important win, a come-from-behind, three-quarter-length triumph in the Grade 1 Ancient Title at Santa Anita. Amazombie also was deprived of another graded victory earlier this year following a controversial disqualification in Hollywood Park’s Los Angeles Handicap.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

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HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Apriority
D. Fawkes J. Rosario 78, 99, 100 Had excuses in his last two; can upset this off his fine early-season form 20-1

Big Drama
D. Fawkes R. Dominguez 88, 120, 108 Defending champ sparsely raced in '11, missed final prep; cause for concern 2-1

Jackson Bend
N. Zito C. Nakatani 112, 107, 108 Shocked he didn't go in Dirt Mile; at his best with more distance than this 3-1

Amazombie
W. Spawr M. Smith 104, 100, 99 Sharp now, which makes him dangerous considering questions others have 6-1

Euroears
B. Baffert R. Bejarano 62, 105, n/a Ignore Vosburgh; strong win two back, but might find the pace here too hot 5-1

Force Freeze
P. Walder J. Velazquez 103, 101, n/a Good try in the Vosburgh, albeit with the grain of the track; in career form 10-1

Giant Ryan
B. Parboo C. Velasquez 104, 98, 105 Has won six straight, but his Vosburgh win most recently was bias-aided 8-1

Aikenite
T. Pletcher J. Castellano 93, 100, 99 Not sure he's quite good enough, and he's at his best with a bit more distance 15-1

Hamazing Destiny
D. W. Lukas R. Albarado 88, 97, 91 Was a surprising second in this last year; his recent form has not been sharp 15-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:17 AM

Breeders' Cup: Chamberlain Bridge will defend from outside post

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – For someone who sent out two Breeders’ Cup winners last year, trainer Bret Calhoun sure has flown under the radar this week. The 47-year-old Texan is back with one of those winners, Chamberlain Bridge, who started from post 1 when he captured the 2010 BC Turf Sprint and will break from post 14 with Jamie Theriot back aboard when he defends his title Saturday in the $1 million race at Churchill Downs.

“We’re on opposite ends of the spectrum,” said Calhoun, who also won the 2010 BC Filly and Mare Sprint with the since-retired Dubai Majesty. “But that’s fine, because he likes it better outside. I’m not saying he’ll win again, but when we got the one hole last year, I was horrified. Jamie worked out a real nice trip for him last year, and hopefully he can do the same this time.”

Chamberlain Bridge is just one of numerous contenders in the five-furlong Turf Sprint, which shapes up as one of the best betting races on either Breeders’ Cup day. Regally Ready has been pegged as a lukewarm program favorite but doesn’t necessarily have to be, considering how well matched the field is.

Regally Ready (post 8, Corey Nakatani), trained by Steve Asmussen, broke loose with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure of 101 making his turf debut in a Churchill allowance last fall. Ever since, turf sprints have been his domain, including a victory here last spring on the Kentucky Derby undercard and last month in the Grade 1 Nearctic at Woodbine.

“He’s coming off a very nice win in the Nearctic and is doing well,” said Asmussen.

Perhaps the most intriguing starter is Caracortado (post 13, Joe Talamo), a consistent gelding whose past performances are dotted with graded stakes going a mile on turf. Trainer Mike Machowsky said the cutback in distance following a 10-week layoff is “an angle I love” and that the California-bred 4-year-old comes well prepared for this task following a series of sharp works at Santa Anita. Caracortado was good enough to capture the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile in his most recent start in late August.

“After Del Mar, I was just going to run in the Cal Cup,” said Machowsky. “But the more I thought about this, the more I liked it. And here we are.”

Other prime contenders in this race include several horses in off sharp efforts at Keeneland, led by Havelock (post 10, Robby Albarado), a rallying winner of the Grade 3 Woodford Stakes on turf. Havelock, a Maryland-bred gelding, has strong local ties: owners Tommy and Bonnie Hamilton of Silverton Hill Farm live in nearby Springfield, Ky., while Churchill-based trainer Darrin Miller employs his 17-year-old son, Chase, as the regular exercise rider for Havelock.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

The other Keeneland returnees include Perfect Officer (post 4, Kendrick Carmouche), a good second in the Woodford; Hoofit (post 7, Edgar Prado), a New Zealand-bred gelding who was supplemented to the BC program after his 11-1 upset in the Phoenix on Polytrack; and Holiday for Kitten (post 2, Joel Rosario), an 18-1 winner of the Thoroughbred Club of America on Polytrack and the only 3-year-old in the field.

Holiday for Kitten, a filly, is joined by 5-year-old Broken Dreams (post 3, Garrett Gomez) as the only females in the field.

Yet another notable in this deep cast is California Flag (post 6, Patrick Valenzuela), winner of this race in 2009 at Santa Anita. The 7-year-old gray gelding won the Grade 3 Morvich at Santa Anita in his last start.

Rounding out the lineup are Grand Adventure, Great Attack, Rapport, Country Day, and Camp Victory. Of those, perhaps Country Day (post 11, Jimmy Graham) rates the best bomber chance after posting two sharp recent works over the local turf course for trainer Steve Margolis.

The Turf Sprint, which was first run “down the hill” at Santa Anita in 2008, goes as the sixth of 12 Saturday races and is the leadoff race in the $2 pick six (races 6-11). Post time is 3:21 p.m. Eastern.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

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HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Caracortado
M. Machowsky J. Talamo 98, 98, 102 He's not a turf sprinter, but he has a lot of class; might mow these down late 7-2

Havelock
D. Miller R. Albarado 96, 70, 93 Won his last three turf sprint attempts with various running styles; obvious 5-1

Chamberlain Bridge
W. B. Calhoun J. Theriot 94, 78, 91 Improved third most recently suggests a return to form; won this last year 8-1

Camp Victory
M. Mitchell J. Leparoux 88, 100, 104 Excellent main track form before dull turf try in last; has rebound potential 10-1

Regally Ready
S. Asmussen C. Nakatani 94, 83, 89 Regained top form taking his last at WO; big win over the course last spring 6-1

Broken Dreams
T. Proctor G. Gomez 95, 93, 95 Mare is in sharp form and isn't far off Beyer-wise; chance for a piece at a price 15-1

Perfect Officer
M. Pino K. Carmouche 93, 94, 89 Nothing wrong with his steady form; he just seems a cut below the best here 10-1

California Flag
B. Koriner P. Valenzuela 94, 95, 57 Also recently regained winning form, but he seems at his best in California 10-1

Country Day
S. Margolis J. Graham 91, 83, 91 Although he improved last time, he doesn't show a turf race that can win this 20-1

Great Attack
W. Ward J. Sanchez 85, 94, 97 Sports some solid efforts, but the competition here runs too deep for him 20-1

Hoofit
H. G. Motion E. Prado 93, 82, n/a Upset the Phoenix on Poly, but his turf record in New Zealand is only so so 15-1

Grand Adventure
M. Frostad J. Castellano 88, 92, 88 Requires a wake up call as he seems far removed from his best form 20-1

Holiday for Kitten
W. Ward J. Rosario 89, 77, 75 Upset a stakes on her favored Kee Poly last out; in way over her head here 30-1

Rapport
R. Werner B. Hernandez Jr. 81, 91, 81 Has high speed, can improve off long layoff; brutal spot to make her turf bow 20-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:23 AM

Breeders' Cup: Trappe Shot, The Factor top competitive Dirt Mile field

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Four horses are stretching out in distance. Four horses are cutting back. The only member of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile field who last ran at the distance was beaten 11 lengths.

Such is the dilemma facing handicappers when trying to come up with the winner of the $1 million Dirt Mile, which despite a boatload of defections – both expected and unexpected – came up an extremely competitive race. As it is run at Churchill Downs, the Dirt Mile is a one-turn race.

Trappe Shot, Caleb’s Posse, and The Factor were three of nine horses pre-entered in the Dirt Mile and another Breeders’ Cup race. Their connections felt the Dirt Mile was the right race.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin points to Trappe Shot’s victory in the Long Branch at 1 1/16 miles and his runner-up finish to Lookin At Lucky in the Haskell – both last year – as races that showed him the mile will fit Trappe Shot. To date, Trappe Shot’s biggest victory came in the six-furlong True North.

“We wanted to do it this year, but the timing of the races didn’t allow it except on Kelso day, and that was a Grade 2, and this is a Grade 1 horse,” McLaughlin said. “Uncle Mo was a prohibitive favorite in the Kelso. We weren’t afraid of him, we were trying to be a Grade 1 winner.”

McLaughlin said he feels Trappe Shot was compromised by speed-favoring, wet surfaces when beaten as the favorite in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga and the Vosburgh at Belmont. Saturday, Trappe Shot will break from post 9 under John Velazquez.

The three primary speed horses – The Factor, Shackleford, and Tapizar – drew the three inside post positions.

That should help Trappe Shot and Caleb’s Posse. Caleb’s Posse won a pair of one-turn stakes at Saratoga, including a nose victory over Uncle Mo in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at seven furlongs. Uncle Mo came back to win the Kelso impressively, but opted for the Classic.

Trainer Donnie Von Hemel opted to prep Caleb’s Posse in the Indiana Derby, a two-turn race at 1 1/16 miles, where he finished third. Though the distance of the Dirt Mile is longer than the Amsterdam and King’s Bishop, Von Hemel said he believes the race is still a sprint.

“It’s a one-turn race, and usually, it plays out like a sprint with pace,” said Von Hemel, whose horse will break from post 8 under Rajiv Maragh.

One of the strongest closers expected for the Dirt Mile, Jackson Bend, winner of the Grade 1 Forego, elected to run in the Sprint instead.

The Factor won the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien going seven furlongs at Del Mar before getting fried in a speed duel when he finished fourth in the six-furlong Ancient Title at Santa Anita. The Factor drew the rail that day and was forced to use speed to obtain some position. Trainer Bob Baffert also felt his horse was a little flat for the Ancient Title.

Based on The Factor’s sharp six-furlong work in 1:10.60 on Monday at Santa Anita, he said he feels the horse is back to form. Unfortunately, The Factor drew the rail again.

“I think the mile is a good spot for him once he gets into that stride of his,” Baffert said. “The way he worked the other day, he looked like his old self.”

Shackleford ran in all three Triple Crown races and won the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles. He is coming off a second-place finish in the Indiana Derby, but his training here this week has led trainer Dale Romans to say the competition “will have their hands full.”

Trainer Steve Asmussen has the intriguing duo of Wilburn and Tapizar. Wilburn’s 4 3/4-length victory in the Indiana Derby was his third consecutive victory. His form is reminiscent of Morning Line, a late-developing 3-year-old who got beat a head in this race last year.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

“He got a dream trip, the door was open, but he went through it very impressively,” Asmussen said of Wilburn’s Indiana Derby. “I do think with a horse as big as he is, he’s going to have to get a trip. With Julien [Leparoux] being on him, I think he’s in very capable of hands to work out the trip.”

Tapizar, who missed eight months because of a knee chip, comes into the Mile off a front-running score against a stakes caliber field in a Belmont allowance race Oct. 8.

“I definitely thought he looked fast,” Asmussen said.

Jersey Town won the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct last fall, making him the only member of the field to have won a one-turn mile race. He is coming off an 11-length loss to Uncle Mo in the Kelso.

Tres Borrachos got an all-fees paid trip to the Mile by winning the San Diego at Del Mar in July. That was his only win in his last 16 starts.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

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HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Wilburn
S. Asmussen J. Leparoux 103, 99, 95 Benefitted from a great trip winning Indiana Derby; might get another here 5-1

Trappe Shot
K. McLaughlin J. Velazquez 97, 112, 111 The stretch out in distance suits; just question who he beat in his big victories 2-1

The Factor
B. Baffert M. Garcia 90, 104, 84 Didn't like the way he gave way last out, must deal with Tapizar early here 5-2

Caleb's Posse
D. Von Hemel R. Maragh 92, 106, 105 Will appreciate the return to one turn, and would relish a contested pace 6-1

Shackleford
D. Romans J. Castanon 95, 68, 96 He's 0 for 4 since he upset the Preakness, a win that he must validate now 6-1

Jersey Town
B. Tagg C. Velasquez 97, 100, 90 Crushed in the Kelso, but the top two in there aren't here; current form iffy 15-1

Irrefutable
B. Baffert R. Bejarano 102, 91, 85 Got a favorable pace set up when second in Ancient Title; in over his head 20-1

Tapizar
S. Asmussen G. Gomez 95, 81, 98 Nice comeback win; this is a lot to ask from a colt whose quality is unknown 20-1

Tres Borrachos
M. Jones J. Rosario 93, 90, 97 This 'Win and You're In' race winner has never been up to this sort of task 30-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:26 AM

Breeders' Cup: Europeans figure to dominate Turf

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Cape Blanco, retired now, came and quickly conquered, shipping three times from Ireland to the United States and winning three of this country’s top grass races, the Man o’ War, the Arlington Million, and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Back home, Cape Blanco had finished sixth, fourth, and 13th the last three times he raced on turf.

The lesson? The right European can dominate a group of American grass horses that generously could be called mediocre. The problem? There are five Euros in the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf, and a case can be made for any of them. It’s all about which Euro shipper best adapts to the particular demands – tight left-handed turns, faster pace – of American racing.

“That is always a ponderable of Europeans,” said Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager for Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms. “We have longer straights and gentler turns. You can work horses all you like on nice narrow tracks, but you don’t know until you try them in a race.”

Juddmonte has won four Breeders’ Cup races, but is overdue for a Turf victory, having gone 0 for 10 in the race with luminaries as bright as highly rated Arc de Triomphe winner Dancing Brave. They have two chances in this year’s race: Sea Moon, a 3-year-old long on potential and fairly short on actual accomplishment, and Midday, a BC veteran who won the Filly and Mare Turf in 2009 and finished second in that race last year.

Michael Stoute, a four-time Turf winner, handles Sea Moon, whose form should put bettors in mind of Conduit, who won the Turf when he was 3. While Conduit won the St. Leger Stakes in his last race before the Turf, Sea Moon finished third in the St. Leger, but his trip in that long-distance race was troubled.

“He just got continually blocked in,” Grimthorpe said. “It was incredibly frustrating.”

The St. Leger marked Sea Moon’s Group 1 debut, but his eight-length win in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes in August suggests Sea Moon has considerable upside.

“We had him as a potential [Epsom] Derby horse at the beginning of the year, but he took a while to come, minor issues,” Grimthorpe said. “He’s a progressive horse.”

Midday, by contrast, simply is what she is after 22 starts at age 5. But what she is, is one of the world’s most accomplished mares, with six Group or Grade 1 wins and almost $3.5 million in earnings. Midday, however, ran below form at Churchill last year when edged in the Filly and Mare Turf as the odds-on favorite, and Juddmonte hopes the longer 1 1/2-mile distance of the $3 million Turf gives Midday more time to sort herself out. Regular rider Tom Queally has the mount, while Ryan Moore, Stoute’s stable jockey, rides Sea Moon.

Sarafina, another filly, might be as good as Midday. She had won six of nine starts and never finished worse than third before coming home a flat seventh as one of the favorites in the Oct. 2 Arc. Hot weather and a fast-playing course – neither of which will be in play Saturday – might have accounted for the dud, but Sarafina has made her first trip outside France this week and was agitated during her first two mornings of American training.

Breeders' Cup Turf: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

“She seems a little worried,” exercise rider Eric Alloix said as he brought Sarafina back from the track Wednesday morning. “But I’m not.”

Trainer Alain Royer-Dupre, due in Louisville late this week, won the 1984 Turf with Lashkari. Christophe Lemaire has the mount on the three-time Group 1-winning filly.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien’s two Turf entrants, Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey, also can contend. Await the Dawn had been considered a BC Classic hope until a late-summer illness set him back. St Nicholas Abbey was a top 2-year-old of 2009 before a lost 3-year-old season. He beat Midday by one length in the Coronation Cup in June and led the Arc at the top of the stretch before fading to fifth. Both O’Brien horses like firm going and a left-handed course.

Dean’s Kitten looks like the leading American hope. Third in the Arlington Million and a close second in the Joe Hirsch, Dean’s Kitten has come forward this year through maturation and longer distances. His trainer, Mike Maker, noted the lack of pace in the three-turn Turf.

“We might inherit the lead,” Maker said. “I don’t mind being controlling speed at all.”

But with five capable Euros in town, it might not matter.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Sea Moon
M. Stoute R. Moore n/a, n/a, n/a His win two back was only in a Gr. 2, but he's dangerous if he duplicates that 9-2

Midday
H. Cecil T. Queally n/a, n/a, n/a Intriguing that this Cup veteran chose this over a 3rd straight F&M Turf start 7-2

Sarafina
A. de Royer-Dupre C. Lemaire n/a, n/a, n/a Form prior to her Arc loss was stellar, and she's had lots of success vs. males 5-2

St Nicholas Abbey
A. O'Brien J. O'Brien n/a, n/a, n/a Seems a half-notch below the best Euros here; not totally out if it, however 6-1

Await the Dawn
A. O'Brien J. Leparoux n/a, n/a, n/a Disappointed in first Gr. 1 attempt last time; freshened since, must improve 4-1

Dean's Kitten
M. Maker R. Dominguez 104, 97, 84 Comes into this off the best race of his life, but that was on very deep going 10-1

Teaks North
J. Sallusto J. Castellano 93, 100, 96 That he's won two Gr. 1 races this year could win you a bar bet; in deep here 20-1

Brilliant Speed
T. Albertrani J. Velazquez 92, 90, 89 Back to turf, which is what he does best, but this 3yo is aiming very high here 20-1

Stately Victor
M. Maker M. Smith 91, 99, 89 Limited synthetic specialist doesn't seem as good on turf; way overmatched 30-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:29 AM

Breeders' Cup: Union Rags puts Matz in familiar spot

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It was a little more than five years ago that trainer Michael Matz led an unbeaten colt to Churchill Downs in a quest for greatness, and the horse, the ill-fated Barbaro, fulfilled expectations, decisively winning the 2006 Kentucky Derby in what would be the final victory of his short career.

Sadly, as few racing fans can forget, the colt would succumb in January of the following year following complications from a shattered hind leg he suffered in the 2006 Preakness.

Now Matz is back under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs with another unbeaten colt: Champagne winner Union Rags, who, like Barbaro, has the opportunity to establish himself as the nation’s best, this time in Saturday’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The task is far from easy against a field of 12 opponents who represent the elite of the male 2-year-old division. Besides Union Rags, the race drew four other Grade or Group 1 winners – Breeders’ Futurity winner Dullahan; Crusade, winner of the Middle Park Stakes in Britain; Del Mar Futurity winner Drill; and Norfolk winner Creative Cause.

No horse, however, has the résumé to match Union Rags, who after winning a five-furlong debut race at Delaware Park, went on to capture the Grade 2 Saratoga Special at 6 1/2 furlongs before his victory in the one-mile Champagne.

The form from the Champagne has held up, with a pair of off-the-board finishers winning their next starts.

The chief uncertainty with Union Rags is inexperience. The colt has never raced around two turns or as far as 1 1/16 miles, the distance of the Juvenile.

Matz believes Union Rags will be more effective the farther he runs. “I don’t think two turns is a problem,” he said.

Union Rags is a son of Dixie Union out of the Gone West mare Tempo. But while many Gone West mares drop stayers and middle-distance runners, Union Rags’s siblings have largely been sprinters. The average winning distance of all foals out of Tempo is just 6.3 furlongs.

Matz is uncertain where jockey Javier Castellano will have Union Rags placed in the early stages of the Juvenile, noting that the colt’s running style has differed with each race, depending on traffic issues and other circumstances.

“I think whatever it presents, he’ll handle it, either close to the front end or behind,” he said. “I think he’s a winner. And I hope he doesn’t prove me wrong on Saturday.”

If there is one thing that appears clear in the Juvenile, it is who will be the likely pacesetter. The speedy Hansen, a runaway winner of a maiden race and the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway, has run off to commanding early leads in his pair of races – large margins he has maintained or extended to the finish.

With so much on the line in the Juvenile, his connections opted to change riders, replacing regular jockey Victor Lebron with Ramon Dominguez, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning rider.

“Obviously he is having another great year,” said trainer Mike Maker. “I expect he’ll fit the horse very well.”

Hansen and six other entrants are shifting surfaces to dirt after having last raced on synthetic or turf tracks.

Only three runners – Creative Cause and longshots Fort Loudon and Speightscity – have won going two turns on dirt.

Speightscity, in what is a rarity for a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race, is actually cutting back in distance after winning a 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Saratoga Sept. 2.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

Despite not having raced since and missing the Champagne due to an injured foot, his ever-confident trainer Gary Contessa is excited about how his colt is approaching the race.

“He’s got the longest reach of any horse I’ve trained in my life - he just gobbles up ground,” he said.

Two Juvenile entrants will have equipment changes: Drill, the Norfolk runner-up, is having blinkers removed, and Optimizer, the third-place finisher from the Breeders’ Futurity, is adding blinkers.

Meanwhile, the uncoupled Aidan O’Brien-trained European representatives, Crusade and Daddy Long Legs, will both race with Lasix for the first time.

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Union Rags
M. Matz J. Castellano 92, 95, 66 Most impressive winning the Champagne and should route; the one to beat 5-2

Drill
B. Baffert M. Garcia 78, 90, 76 No match for Creative Cause in Norfolk, but gets better pace set up this time 5-1

Creative Cause
M. Harrington J. Rosario 84, 88, 88 Clear win in Norfolk, the only major two-turn dirt prep, albeit with easy trip 9-2

Dullahan
D. Romans K. Desormeaux 85, 76, 73 Closer got maiden win on Poly in Breeders' Futurity; should be rolling late 8-1

Hansen
M. Maker R. Dominguez 80, 89 Don't know how good he is, but he set a wicked pace at TP, and still romped 12-1

Daddy Long Legs
A. O'Brien R. Moore n/a, n/a, n/a Strong Group 2 score in his last and his pedigree suggest he will take to dirt 10-1

Crusade
A. O'Brien J. Leparoux n/a, n/a, n/a Recently upset a Gr. 1 at Newmarket and also has some dirt in his pedigree 12-1

Optimizer
D. W. Lukas R. Albarado 82, 79, 81 Raced on turf before the Poly Breeders' Fururity; tough spot to make dirt bow 20-1

Alpha
K. McLaughlin G. Gomez 82, 84 No match for 'Rags' at Belmont; lots of room to improve, but he'll have to 20-1

Take Charge Indy
P. Byrne J. Graham 78, 85, 84 This will be his dirt debut; wasn't crazy how he gave ground late in last two 20-1

Fort Loudon
S. Gold L. Jurado 76, 70, 76 Swept the Florida Stallion Series at Calder, but he hasn't run fast enough yet 20-1

Prospective
M. Casse L. Contreras 72, 64, 49 Won a two-turn stakes at WO on Poly; dirt a question and his Beyers are low 20-1

Speightscity
G. Contessa C. Nakatani 80, 55 Romped in nine furlong maiden race at Saratoga; hasn't been seen since 30-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:33 AM

Breeders' Cup: Goldikova seeks grand finale in Mile

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – When Alain and Gerard Wertheimer, the Swiss-born brothers who bred and own Goldikova, announced during the 2008 post-BC Mile press conference that they would delay retirement and bring the Mile winner back to race at age 4, a cheer went up from assembled media.

How quaint.

Three years later – three years! – Goldikova remains . . . Goldikova. She already has gone where no Thoroughbred has been before, winning a Breeders’ Cup race for the third straight year when she scored an emotionally charged victory here in the 2010 Mile. And 6-year-old Goldikova still comes back for more. She is the 7-5 morning-line favorite to win her fourth Mile while facing 12 foes in the last BC race before the Classic, and the 27th and last race of Goldikova’s career.

“Let’s say she’s a year older, a little heavier maybe, which is normal, but she still has the same way she wants to go, her action is the same,” said trainer Freddie Head, who has won the Mile five times, since he twice rode Miesque to victory.

“She’s still like a 3-year-old filly,” he said. “You look at her, and she never changes. She’s never had a day of problems in all her life.”

Based strictly on winning performances, Goldikova has declined in 2011. She has lost three races, as many defeats as she suffered in 2009 and 2010 combined, and she was rather soundly beaten by Canford Cliffs in the Queen Anne and by Immortal Verse in the Jacque Le Marois. But deeper analysis suggests Goldikova remains formidable. Her losses were second-place finishes, and the most recent one, in the Prix de la Foret, came by a head. Two losses came in straight-course miles, and Goldikova has proved untouchable here because her athletic build is made for tight turns.

“She likes the two turns, she loves running on the left-hand course,” Head said. “This is the perfect place for her.”

If history is any guide, Olivier Peslier will take a gentle hold of Goldikova after breaking from post 1, wait in midpack, look for room around the far turn, and take the lead at the top of the stretch.

The first horse Head mentioned when asked to assess competition was Gio Ponti, who probably is making his final start. Second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Classic, Gio Ponti finished second to Goldikova in the 2010 Mile, coming home strongly but coming up 1 3/4 lengths short. Gio Ponti won the Oct. 8 Shadwell Mile like a horse who is in top form, but one wonders if that’s enough.

“In racing, it seems to be a business of dreams,” trainer Christophe Clement said. “You always have to hope. Goldikova beat us last year, but this is horse racing. He’s trained great. He’s very, very sound.”

Three other Europeans will try Goldikova. Zoffany nearly beat top-class Frankel in June but finished last in the Shadwell. Strong Suit is an improving 3-year-old who exits a dominant Group 2 win, but an outside draw vastly displeased his connections. Byword, from trainer Andre Fabre, has the class to contend, but his strong recent performance came over 1 3/16 miles.

“The mile is going to be on the shorter side for him, I don’t think there’s any doubt of that,” Juddmonte Farms racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said.

Turallure won his first Grade 1 on Sept. 18, running down Courageous Cat in the Woodbine Mile. In June, he finished fast to capture the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill.

Breeders' Cup Mile: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

“I think he’s every bit as good as he was before Woodbine,” trainer Charles Lopresti said. “He’s carried his weight. He just keeps getting better.”

Courageous Cat finished second by a half-length to Goldikova in the 2009 Mile but has yet to come back to that high-water mark. Trainer Bill Mott thinks he can improve on this Woodbine Mile performance, where he held the lead for most of the long stretch.

“He was on the lead a long way that day,” Mott said. “I don’t think he needs to do that again.”

Sidney’s Candy figures to lead, Get Stormy figures to stay close – and Goldikova figures to win. She will be missed in 2012, but so will her trainer. Head’s voice wavers on the edge of weariness when asked variations of the same questions that have been posed for three years, but he inevitably dodges impatience and gives generous, honest answers. Goldikova has been a pleasure to watch. Head has been a pleasure to have around.

“That was a great moment last year,” he said. “Winning three times was something incredible. Saturday, I know it’s her last race. I want her to finish in a good way, winning or losing, I want her to have a good run. And that’s going to be it.”

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Byword
A. Fabre M. Guyon n/a, n/a, n/a Form seems a cut below, but he beat a next-out Gr. 1 winner in last; upsetter 12-1

Goldikova
F. Head O. Peslier n/a, n/a, n/a Going for 4th straight Mile; lost a step; might still be simply better than these 9-5

Gio Ponti
C. Clement R. Dominguez 100, 97, 101 Second to Goldikova in this last year; wonder if he hasn't lost a step as well 5-1

Strong Suit
R. Hannon R. Hughes n/a, n/a, n/a Currently in sharp Gr. 2 form, but he might prefer a slightly shorter distance 10-1

Courageous Cat
W. Mott P. Valenzuela 101, 103, 103 Second to Goldikova in this in '09 and his form this year is solid; contender 8-1

Turallure
C. Lopresti J. Leparoux 102, 103, 93 Comes into this in career-best form; question if he can kick with Euros late 10-1

Mr. Commons
J. Shirreffs M. Smith 106, 98, 92 Has had tough trips, but is good, and is improving; has a bit of a shot here 15-1

Jeranimo
M. Pender M. Garcia 108, 89, 99 Got a big Beyer winning his last; he'd have to duplicate it off this class jump 20-1

Get Stormy
T. Bush G. Gomez 99, 98, 93 Improved second to Gio Ponti in last; needs a giant step forward to threaten 15-1

Sidney's Candy
T. Pletcher J. Velazquez 97, 76, 100 Just doesn't seem to have the same spark since switching barns last summer 15-1

Zoffany
A. O'Brien R. Moore 72, n/a, n/a Didn't run a step in his U.S. debut last time; his second straight dull effort 15-1

Compliance Officer
B. Brown A. Solis 97, 96, 93 It was either this or Claiming Crown for streaking NY bred; interesting choice 30-1

Court Vision
D. Romans R. Albarado 96, 87, 85 Even when he's at his best, he tends to hang, and he's not at his best now 30-1

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:35 AM

Uncle Mo, Havre de Grace top improbable Breeders' Cup Classic cast

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – One year ago, Larry Jones was not even training, let alone training Havre de Grace. Six months ago, Uncle Mo was so sick he had to miss the Kentucky Derby, and it was far from certain he would ever race again.

One year ago, So You Think was competing in the Melbourne Cup, his 12th start in a career that had been exclusively in Australia. And one year ago, Flat Out was still a month away from returning to the races following a layoff of more than 20 months.

The chances of any of them, let alone all of them, being in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday at Churchill Downs was a decided longshot. Yet, remarkably, they are the four top choices in the Classic, the last of 15 Breeders’ Cup races to be contested at Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday.

This is the 28th Classic, but it would be hard to find one that has as many compelling story lines. Interest in the 1 1/4-mile race is high, centered primarily on Havre de Grace, who is trying to join the great Zenyatta as females to win the Classic, and Uncle Mo, who is attempting a comeback that would make Lazarus envious.

But the contention in this Classic is as deep as the Mariana Trench, owing to questions about whether Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo are up to the task. Havre de Grace did beat the boys once, in the Woodward, but this is a tougher, larger field. Uncle Mo, who owns the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the Classic, never has raced 1 1/4 miles, and never has won beyond 1 1/16 miles.

So You Think and Flat Out are equally worth embracing, and questioning. So You Think is an international superstar, with five Group 1 wins in Australia, including two runnings of the prestigious Cox Plate, and three more Group 1 wins this year in Ireland and England. But this will be his first race on dirt.

Flat Out comes off a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and has trained brilliantly all week, but there are questions as to whether he is as effective at Churchill Downs, where he is 0 for 2, as at spacious Belmont Park, where he is 2 for 2.

As a result, nearly every one of the 12 runners in this field is afforded a chance to at least hit the board, if not win. Irrespective of the great story lines and championship implications, it’s simply a terrific betting race.

“Like most Classics, this is an extremely tough race to win,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains both Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty.

Uncle Mo is making only his third start since returning to action in late August. The distance of the race is among the hurdles facing Uncle Mo.

“He’s done nothing in any of his races to indicate to me that he won’t do it, but, with any horse, until they do, you don’t know,” Pletcher said. “He’s done some exceptional things in the morning, and in the afternoon.”

Compared to Derby time, Uncle Mo “is training much better,” said John Velazquez, the jockey for Uncle Mo.

“He’s stronger, willing to do everything,” Velazquez said. “We have a fresh horse.”

Pletcher and owner Mike Repole will also send out Stay Thirsty, who won Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes before finishing third to Flat Out and Drosselmeyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He has trained sharply all week.

“Beware of the underdog,” Pletcher said. “He seems as good coming into this as he was before the Jim Dandy and the Travers.”

Havre de Grace has won five times in six starts this year, and already has wrapped up the Eclipse Award as champion older female. A win here makes her Horse of the Year.

“She should settle mid-pack,” Jones said. “Game On Dude and Uncle Mo should be up there, and To Honor and Serve. Hopefully we can draft behind them, and then get first run on Flat Out. I think she’ll get a good, clear run.”

Flat Out has been nursed through severe foot issues by his trainer, Scooter Dickey, a likeable former jockey whose biggest win as a rider came in a $25,000 race at Ak-Sar-Ben. He had never won a Grade 1 race until the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Dickey trains just five horses, and said the anticipation of this race has left him excited and anxious.

“I’ve been sleeping an hour less every night,” Dickey said.

So You Think, part of a large contingent of horses brought to the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Aidan O’Brien, is usually prominent early in a race. Nick Luck, the learned European broadcaster, believes So You Think will have a major say in the outcome if he can track the leaders while in the clear.

Game On Dude used his front-running style to capture the Santa Anita Handicap and Goodwood Stakes this year, thus putting him in contention for Horse of the Year and champion older horse should he win.

“He’s been flying under the radar,” said his jockey, Chantal Sutherland, who is attempting to become the first female rider to win the Classic.

Breeders' Cup Classic: Get graded entries, comments by Mike Watchmaker, and more

Bill Mott sends out Drosselmeyer, last year’s Belmont winner, and To Honor and Serve, who comes off a win in the Pennsylvania Derby. To Honor and Serve, like Uncle Mo, was considered a leading Kentucky Derby contender at the beginning of the year before going to the sidelines, in his case for a splint that was pin fired.

Headache, Ice Box, Rattlesnake Bridge, and Ruler On Ice – all 30-1 shots on the morning line of Churchill Downs’s Mike Battaglia – will have their best chance if the pace is hot.

Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge were second and third behind To Honor and Serve in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Ice Box, last year’s runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, was sixth in the Woodward and seventh in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his last two starts.

Headache won the Hawthorne Gold Cup in his last start, his third win in his last four races. He is 3 for 7 at Churchill Downs.

“He obviously likes it here,” said his trainer, Mike Maker. “The pace should be fast. And he’s won at a mile and a quarter.”

BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: Streaming video and live chat on DRF.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HORSE / TRAINER JOCKEY LAST 3 BEYERS COMMENT ODDS

Flat Out
C. Dickey A. Solis 107, 109, 106 People are thinking he's only a Belmont Park horse; he can run big anywhere 6-1

So You Think
A. O'Brien R. Moore n/a, n/a, n/a Had a terrific season in Europe, and connections feel he will handle the dirt 8-1

Havre de Grace
L. Jones R. Dominguez 105, 111, 106 Filly is having an outstanding campaign, already beat males two starts back 3-1

Uncle Mo
T. Pletcher J. Velazquez 118, 106, 92 Brilliant when on his game, but I think this distance might be too far for him 5-2

To Honor and Serve
W. Mott J. Lezcano 104, 102, 84 Always had huge potential, but this is the toughest assignment of his life 12-1

Stay Thirsty
T. Pletcher J. Castellano 103, 101, 106 I believe this one is better at Saratoga than elsewhere, but he has improved 8-1

Game On Dude
B. Baffert C. Sutherland 102, 98, 106 He is game and almost always fires, but he has never been as good as these 12-1

Ruler On Ice
K. Breen G. Gomez 101, 95, 92 Decent effort when second most recently; can be along late for a tiny share 20-1

Rattlesnake Bridge
K. McLaughlin C. Borel 95, 99, 91 Has potential, but if he won this, it would be his first graded stakes victory 20-1

Drosselmeyer
W. Mott M. Smith 104, 82, 91 Should have stuck with the Marathon despite his surprising second last time 15-1

Headache
M. Maker P. Lopez 99, 99, 100 Consistent Grade 2-3 type is in way over his head against the best in this spot 30-1

Ice Box
N. Zito C. Nakatani 90, 84, 90 His form since last year's Derby is poor, and he is a rank outsider in this race 30-1

Prayer for Relief
B. Baffert R. Bejarano 94, 98, 97 Withdrawn -

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:38 AM

Churchill Downs: Buckleupbuttercup can cap Kenneally's day

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With a runner in the first and one in the last and 7 1/2 hours in between, Saturday portends to be a long – but potentially successful – day for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

After sending out morning-line favorite Jump Up in a first-level allowance in the opener at 12:05 p.m., Kenneally may have the horse to beat, Buckleupbuttercup, in the Grade 2, $150,000 Chilukki Stakes for fillies and mares at one mile. Post time for the Chilukki is 7:40 p.m.

Buckleupbuttercup is 3 for 3 at Churchill Downs, including a victory in the Eight Belles Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs here in 2010. Buckleupbuttercup has alternated a good-race, bad-race pattern and she is coming off a last-place finish in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont in her last start. Kenneally felt that Buckleupbuttercup was compromised by being down on the inside in the Gallant Bloom, at a distance – 6 1/2 furlongs – that is shorter than her best.

“Things have to go her way for her to run her best race, and she just hasn’t had things go her way,” Kenneally said. “However, she’s back at Churchill, and she’s 3 for 3 at Churchill. She’s run well, here she trains well here, and she’s coming into the race real good.”

There also appears to be ample speed in this field, and Buckleupbuttercup is better when there is pace. Javier Castellano will ride Buckleupbuttercup from post 3.

Persuading is 3 for 5 at Churchill, including a third-level allowance victory going a one-turn mile in an-off-the-turf race run in the mud in June. Her last two races, on turf and synthetic, have not been good.

“She’s a very good filly. We’re waiting for her to have that major breakthrough race, because I know there’s more there than she’s done so far,” trainer Dale Romans said.

The unknown in the race is the Peruvian-bred Anunciata, trained by Michael Matz. Anunciata went 9 for 17 in Peru and makes her North American debut and first start since March 26.

“Fitness-wise she should be able to compete at a mile,” Matz said. “She hasn’t competed in awhile so it might end up she needs a race, but there’s not much more I can do working her to get ready for this race.”

After facing males in her last two starts, Maristar returns to face her own gender in the Chilukki.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:41 AM

Mike Watchmaker: 2011 Breeders' Cup analysis

Breeders' Cup Saturday

MARATHON
CEASE has been a revelation since switching to dirt, and though the Hawthorne Gold Cup he comes out of wasn’t the strongest Breeders’ Cup prep of the year, he ran very well finishing a close third considering he had previously won only an entry-level allowance race. We have seen the best of what everyone else in this race can do, but Cease still has lots of room for improvement, and seems the type who will run all day. BRIGANTIN has only raced on turf, but was third in two even longer Group 1 races this year in Europe, where the quality of marathon racing just has to be better than ours. A. U. MINER was going well at the finish when fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup off a 2 1-2 month layoff and should be tighter this time; obvious. BIRDRUN finished sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup off the same layoff and can also improve.

JUVENILE TURF
FARRAAJ has yet to finish worse than second, including a good try in his group stakes debut last time out at Newmarket. He appears to be effective from anywhere on the track, and what I find intriguing is how well bet he’s been in every start. That, in fact, was the deciding factor in a race where I wanted to go with a Euro shipper. CASPAR NETSCHER has already had more starts at 2 (nine) than many Europeans have in a lifetime, but he was beaten only a length in a 16 horse Group 1 last time. STATE OF PLAY’S victory in the With Anticipation in his most recent start got a big boost when Dullahan, the third place finisher, came back to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. But that win was two months ago, and he drew an awful outside post. WROTE was an okay third in his group stakes debut last time; can certainly improve.

SPRINT
APRIORITY’S poor finish last time out in the Vosburgh is best ignored as he was compromised by early trouble and a speed favoring track. And he might have been short off a three month layoff in his loss two back. Apriority’s form before that was very good, and he could sit a perfect trip here stalking a pace disputed by Big Drama, Euroears, and Giant Ryan; taken to upset. BIG DRAMA won this race last year en route to a divisional championship, but his campaign this year has been strange: disappearing for eight months after an incredible performance, returning with only a workman-like win, and then missing his final prep due to illness; too many questions for my liking. JACKSON BEND wants more distance, which is why it was a shock he didn’t go in the Dirt Mile; in tremendous form, however. AMAZOMBIE was perfectly set up in the Ancient Title, but could get another favorable set up here.

TURF SPRINT
CARACORTADO is not a five furlong horse. He prefers more distance than what he gets in this race. But what Caracortado is, is a legitimate Grade 1 performer – he has come within a couple of feet of winning two of them in his career – and the same cannot be said for any other member of this field. He has a powerful late kick on turf, and a lively early pace here could set the stage for him getting up in time. HAVELOCK has won stakes in his last three turf sprint starts, and his score in the Woodford last time out was his best effort yet. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE won this race last year, and an improved third in his most recent start suggests he is approaching top form again; dangerous. CAMP VICTORY flopped at odds-on in the Morvich, but he can rebound given his excellent prior form on both the main track and grass.

DIRT MILE
In a race that came up a little softer than expected, WILBURN is the pick. Granted, Wilburn got a sweet rail trip when he won the Indiana Derby most recently, but he’s a rapidly improving 3-year-old who is looking for his fourth straight score, and he might get another great trip here stalking a hot pace. TRAPPE SHOT was compromised by a speed bias in the Vosburgh last time out. He earned big Beyers prior to that, albeit against questionable company, but he also could get a good off-the-pace trip here. I didn’t like the way THE FACTOR caved at 2-5 after an early speed duel in the Ancient Title last time, and while he is a better horse than that, he might get hooked early by Tapizar this time. CALEB’S POSSE stretched back out unsuccessfully in the Indiana Derby, but his two sprint outings before that were top notch; might well be a natural one-turn miler.

TURF
SEA MOON might not sport the flashiest Euro lines here, but what he does have over some of the more well-established European invaders is a higher upside. Sea Moon was making only the fifth start of his career when third as the favorite in the St. Leger most recently, a race in which he has a big trouble line, and showed great potential winning his first two starts this year. It was a minor surprise that MIDDAY, winner of the 2009 F&M Turf and a narrowly beaten second in that race last year, opted for this event. Then again, she has made three starts this year against males and has proven very competitive against them. Being competitive against males is also no issue for SARAFINA, whose form prior to a disappointing run in the Arc was stellar; will be formidable if she hasn’t lost her edge. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY beat Midday last June and is not out of this.

JUVENILE
UNION RAGS was miles the best winning stakes in his last two, and no other member of this field has earned a pair of Beyers that equal the two he received in those romps. It is true that this will be his first start around two turns, but his pedigree and versatility in terms of running style suggest a route will be no problem. DRILL was no match for Creative Cause at odds on in the Norfolk, but a projected livelier pace this time will be to his benefit. CREATIVE CAUSE was clearly best in the Norfolk even if he had an easy trip prompting a slow pace. The pace will be stronger this time, but Creative Cause can still be effective coming from a little farther back. DULLAHAN got his maiden win in the Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack, and is better now than when he tried dirt at the start of his career; stretch threat.

MILE
BYWORD’S overall form this year might seem notch below Goldikova’s, and maybe also Strong Suit’s. But he is in season-best form at this time, having beaten the subsequent Group 1 Champion Stakes winner in his most recent start. Byword was a Group 1 winner last year, when he also ran Goldikova to a close decision; taken to upset. Truth be told, I am pulling for GOLDIKOVA to win this race for a fourth straight year because it’s unimaginable to me that another horse will ever approach such a Breeders’ Cup feat. Goldikova does seem to have lost a step, but even if she has, she could still simply be much the best. GIO PONTI was second to Goldikova in this last year and repeats the same prep pattern this year; might have also lost a step, though. STRONG SUIT is another sharp Euro shipper, but a mile might be just outside his best distance range.

CLASSIC
FLAT OUT’S two big wins this year – the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban – did come at Belmont Park, but he is much more than a one track horse. He ran well finishing second in the Woodward and Whitney at Saratoga, and even his sixth on the dead rail in the Foster on this track was okay. Flat Out was beaten by Havre de Grace in the Woodward, but the additional furlong could be the equalizer. SO YOU THINK proved to be top class pretty much everywhere in the world, except here. He will be formidable if he handles dirt, which his connections believe he will. HAVRE DE GRACE, outstanding all year, already proved she can beat males when she won the Woodward; tough to take a strong stand against. UNCLE MO is brilliant, but is also a huge question mark at this distance. Moreover, Game On Dude and To Honor and Serve won’t let him get loose early.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:44 AM

Brad Free: 2011 Breeders' Cup analysis

Breeders' Cup Saturday

Marathon
1-Birdrun
2-Cease
3-Giant Oak
4-Pleasant Prince
An anonymous field entered this forgettable mile-and-three-quarter dirt race. BIRDRUN, whose best race was going a mile and a half, stretches out and drops in class after pressing and fading vs. tougher. Second start following a short layoff, he can win with a forward move. CEASE has improved each successive start this year, including a solid third-place finish last out against better. His pressing style should play well in a race likely to unfold at a soft pace. GIANT OAK, beaten favorite this race a year ago, tries again after chasing better all year. He will finish. PLEASANT PRINCE has run races that put him in the hunt against this group, including a runaway last out over Rail Trip. ELDAAFER, upset winner of this a year ago, is back for another go. He was better last year, however.

Juvenile Turf
1-Finale
2-Caspar Netscher
3-State of Play
4-Animal Spirits
FINALE turned into a tiger on turf, 3-for-3 including a win six weeks ago in a productive race. That Woodbine race produced 2010 winner Pluck for this trainer, and 2009 runner-up Bridgetown. Freshened six weeks with tactical speed to overcome post 13, FINALE is logical. European shipper CASPAR NETSCHER arrives in peak form. He finished fifth by a length last time in a Group 1; by all accounts he was best. This is his first try beyond six furlongs. STATE OF PLAY is 2-for-2 and a clever G2 winner at Saratoga two months ago. From the outside post, he must use his speed early. ANIMAL SPIRITS followed a solid runner-up debut with a deep-closing G3 upset at Keeneland. Look for him late. MAJESTIC CITY was unruly in his final California workout; he probably is the speed of the field.

Sprint
1-Amazombie
2-Euroears
3-Giant Ryan
4-Jackson Bend
California sprinters have been “Crushing the Cup” by winning 14 of 27. The streak can continue. AMAZOMBIE returned to form with a sharp recent comeback, and bounced out of the Grade 1 win in top shape. Recent works have been super, he is well drawn, with a versatile style to press or stalk. EUROEARS was compromised when he drew the rail; he is not quick from the gate. If he breaks slowly, forget it. But if he breaks cleanly, he could be gone. He has worked brilliantly since a nightmare trip last out. GIANT RYAN has won six straight with big figs, though Belmont observers say he benefitted from a bias last out. JACKSON BEND will be over-bet turning back from longer distances. He will finish, but six furlongs could be too sharp. BIG DRAMA was better last year.

Turf Sprint
1-Regally Ready
2-Caracortado
3-Chamberlain Bridge
4-Havelock
Early this year REGALLY READY was unbeatable in turf sprints. He tailed off, but he is coming around again even if his slow-pace win last out was less than dominant. But it marked a forward move as he cycles into form, and his pressing style should play well in a race without much gas. CARACORTADO sprinted on grass once; it was a powerful comeback victory last year. The G2 winner missed time in fall with a minor setback, but worked well lately. He runs well fresh. Look for him late. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE won this a year ago and is 4-for-6 at Churchill Downs. Not sure if the fractions will quick enough for him, however. HAVELOCK has won his last four turf sprints. He might be this good. RAPPORT will lead partway. He might get brave at a price first-time turf.

Dirt Mile
1-Tres Borrachos
2-Trappe Shot
3-Tapizar
4-The Factor
Bombs away with TRES BORRACHOS, whose recent two-turn pace duel vs. better sets him up for a class-drop upset at one mile. Assuming realistic pace, he can sit, wait and tag them late. His form looks similar to last year’s Dirt Mile upset winner Dakota Phone. TRAPPE SHOT has been splashing around earning big figs in the New York mud. It is unknown if he is as effective on dry land in Kentucky, but this is an easier spot. Front-running 3-year-olds TAPIZAR and THE FACTOR create an interesting early duel. TAPIZAR is drawn outside his pace rival and will apply pressure. His comeback was solid, in winter he was among the fastest Derby prospects in California. THE FACTOR is stuck on the rail, facing pace pressure from the outside. Not sure if he is as good as most in California initially believed.

Turf
1-St Nicholas Abbey
2-Midday
3-Sarafina
4-Sea Moon
North America’s championship card is hereby interrupted with an obligatory curtsy to Europe. The grass horses in Europe are simply better; the top four choices are shippers. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY loomed a threat in the Arc homestretch last month, but lost his punch while making his second start back. Top class and 5-for-10 overall, he is rounding to top form and set for a smasher. MIDDAY skipped the F&M Turf for a tilt at the boys; she finished second twice this year in Group 1’s vs. males. Her recent fourth-place finish was merely a prep race. SARAFINA finished a disappointing seventh at low odds in the Arc. This is an easier spot. SEA MOON, a lightly raced 3-year-old, had a compromising trip and finished third as the favorite against possibly better. He is better than that makes him look.

Juvenile
1-Union Rags
2-Alpha
3-Drill
4-Creative Cause
The devastating Champagne win by UNION RAGS stamps the 3-for-3 colt as a worthy favorite. He has improved each start. Last time he waited behind runners into the lane before bursting clear. Two turns is new, but that is not likely to be an issue based on his overpowering last start. ALPHA could be the “sneak horse” after a troubled runner-up trip behind the top pick. He broke slowly, got bottled behind runners, raced in traffic, and finished evenly. It was only his second start; he has much upside. DRILL was rank and unhappy behind a slow pace and finished second as the odds-on favorite in the Norfolk. He can improve in his second route. He has worked well with blinkers off. CREATIVE CAUSE crushed the Norfolk with a perfect trip. The pace this time will be quicker.

Mile
1-Strong Suit
2-Goldikova
3-Gio Ponti
4-Mr Commons
The sky is the limit for improving 3-year-olds in fall; a huge recent victory by England-based STRONG SUIT sets him up to upset despite post 11. GOLDIKOVA seeks an amazing fourth BC Mile victory. However, for this first time in her career she lost more races this year than she won. Runner-up three of her last four, she enters with deserving accolades for a stellar career (17-for-26). The knock is price. She will be heavily favored. GIO PONTI is overdue for a BC win after finishing second to girls the last two years (Goldikova, Zenyatta). GIO PONTI fires every start, and will roll late. MR COMMONS will be a fat price. A 3-year-old getting better, this might be the time to catch him at long odds. BYWORD arrives from France after winning two straight vs. easier.

Classic
1-Ruler On Ice
2-Havre De Grace
3-Game On Dude
4-So You Think
Longshot RULER ON ICE, the Belmont winner, can upset this field. The improving 3-year-old finished well in his final prep and should have legitimate fractions to run at. His odds will be about 20-1. The filly HAVRE DE GRACE earned a shot here based on a win against males (including subsequent G1 winner Flat Out) in the Woodward. She followed with a blowout over fillies and mares. Her numbers are good; she can stay a mile and a quarter. She may start favored. GAME ON DUDE is the speed of the field with a chance to lead gate to wire. He can stay a mile and a quarter, and is one tough customer in the lane. SO YOU THINK is a 12-for-19 international warrior making his third start in a month. UNCLE MO is brilliant, but suspect beyond a mile and a sixteenth.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:48 AM

Breeders' Cup Clocker: Uncle Mo erases all doubts about fitness

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Any doubt how Uncle Mo might have bounced out of his relatively disappointing final work for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic on Sunday morning were erased the moment he stepped out onto the racetrack shortly after 6 a.m. here at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. He turned in an exhilarating training session during which he galloped as strong, as sound and as spectacularly as could be expected leading up to such a major event.

Uncle Mo’s appearance was the highlight of a long and extremely busy training session here Wednesday with nearly all the 179 prospective Breeders’ Cup starters out on the track at one time or another during the course of the morning. There were only two recorded works on Wednesday, Speightscity (Juvenile) drilling a half-mile in 48.40 seconds with a final eighth in 12.09 over the main track and Broken Dreams (Turf Sprint) zipping three eighths in 35.80 with a final quarter in 22.74 over the firm turf albeit under some vigorous late urging.

The “Band of Seven” French horses who paraded around single file for an easy jog on Tuesday were back together again shortly after the renovation break but this time for a little more serious exercise . After stretching their legs with a one-mile jog, the group separated and open galloped around the turn and through the stretch, each completing their final three-eighths in times ranging from 39 and change to 40 and change, including Goldikova and Sarafina , both of whom looked very happy.

All the Classic starters trained Wednesday except for So You Think , who will not clear quarantine until late Thursday. Aside from Uncle Mo, the best of the group were Drosselmeyer and To Honor and Serve, who had another spectacular morning while again training in his now familiar one-cup blinker. Flat Out looked strong again, Havre de Grace had a relatively easy morning galloping under trainer Larry Jones, Ruler On Ice looked good galloping in company for the second day in a row, while Game On Dude made a favorable appearance in his first morning over the track.

Among the Saturday Breeders’ Cup starters to catch my eye were Hansen (Juvenile), Faraaj (Juvenile Turf), who trained in one form or another for at least 45 minutes, Finale (Juvenile Turf), and Union Rags (Juvenile).

The following are my impressions of some of the horses I have either seen work or gallop here over the past 12 days in preparation for Friday’s six Breeders’ Cup events.

Juvenile Sprint

Seeker: Has trained well all week but was on a tight left rein trying to bear out a bit turning for home in his final maintenance move. It is probably not a real concern other than he is drawn down on the rail.

Sum of the Parts: Finished willingly enough in his final prep on Monday, might outrun his odds.

Trinniberg: Expected to see a little quicker final work from the gate considering he went 34 and change just prior to the Hopeful and he was not extending all that well galloping here either Tuesday or Wednesday mornings.

Secret Circle: Strictly the one to beat although the first impression of him on Wednesday during just a routine gallop was nothing special.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Dayatthespa: She reportedly held her own with stablemate Stacelita in her final serious prep prior to shipping locally and that alone makes her a major player. Made a very nice appearance galloping over the main track on Monday.

Stopshoppingmaria: She passed her turf test with flying colors, working slightly better than her proven grass-running stablemate Sweet Cat over the weekend. A question mark at the distance but Stopshoppingmaria may ultimately prove the one to catch.

Stephanie’s Kitten: Her final grass work over the weekend turned out to be a bit of a disaster due to rider error but she’s looked extremely sharp training over the main track ever since with a particularly eye-catching session on Wednesday.

Sweet Cat: This steadily improving filly was under slightly more pressure to finish breezing in company with Stopshoppingmaria over the grass but did fight back to be on even terms during the gallop out. She figures to be a major factor with another forward move.

Elusive Kate: European invader is the one to beat on paper although she looked just average at best during her first two visits to the local turf course. She might be just enough of a question mark to try to beat at a short price.

Somali Lemonade: Undefeated filly looked great (on videotape) galloping out during her final serious prep last week at Keeneland and she has been equally impressive since shipping to Churchill Downs, especially on Wednesday morning when able to keep up a steady “two minute” pace galloping 1 1/4 mile s over the main track. Unfortunately, she must overcome a very difficult post.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Turbulent Descent: Hard to draw any conclusions from what I have seen from her first two visits to the track but certainly the one to beat at her best.

Switch: She worked fast but not very impressively on Sunday when rank leaving the pole and popped several times with the stick down the stretch while appearing uncomfortable throughout. She did bounce back with a very energetic and much happier looking gallop on Wednesday. Can’t forget this filly finished second off a similarly unimpressive final prep in the 2010 running of this same race.

Golden Mystery: She was extremely sharp zipping a fast half-mile in hand on Monday, came back off that work looking well and full of herself 48 hours later. Main caveat is the fact I have seen her work in a similar manner on several occasions down in Florida but she’s obviously at the top of her game right now.

Her Smile: She has worked just about as well as anybody here over the past couple of weeks, completing the final quarter of a half-mile work in 23.29 seconds while completely within herself before galloping out even better all the way back to the six- furlong pole on Saturday morning. Seems to love this track, may be a sleeper if she is able to perform up to her recent works.

Juvenile Fillies

Questing: Euro invader has made a favorable impression since being released from quarantine earlier in the week.

Rocket Twentyone: Worked just an ordinary half mile from the gate then was not overly impressive when returning to the track to gallop several days later.

Putthebabiesdown: She was rank leaving the pole, never settled and appeared to be trying to drift while tiring down the stretch, barely managing to finish on even terms with her maiden stablemate Yes He’s Trouble, who was going much easier throughout.

My Miss Aurelia : Undefeated filly has looked the part over the past couple of weeks and it was encouraging to see her relax during her final maintenance run on Monday, suggesting she will handle the added distance without an issue in the Juvenile Fillies. It looks like her race to lose.

Filly and Mare Turf

Stacelita: Another favorite who has looked the part and even more so since her arrival from New York, putting in a series of very high-energy gallops while stretching out impressively on each successive trip over the Churchill Downs main track. Has trained in a bubble cup blinker to protect her injured eye and will more than likely race in the same equipment on Friday.

Aruna: Turf and artificial surface specialist attempted to emulate Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom with a test run on the main track for trainer Graham Motion but did not appear comfortable over the surface and as a result will remain on the grass for the Breeders’ Cup. She did not look nearly as sharp as stablemate and Filly and Mare Turf rival Shared Account when the pair galloped over the inner course here Wednesday.

Shared Account: Defending Filly and Mare Turf champ was overlooked a year ago and is flying under the radar again the second time around but appears to be coming back to Churchill Downs at the top of her game. She looked very happy and fit while extending beautifully over the turf course here during a routine gallop while travelling not far behind Aruna on Wednesday morning.

Dynaslew: She turned in a very ordinary prep over the turf last weekend and has since done little more than pony without tack since returning to the track following that uninspiring work.

Ladies’ Classic

Pachattack: Her only official work since finishing second in the Spinster came at Keeneland, but I really have liked the very high-energy level I have seen from her on a regular basis since she shipped to Louisville.

It’s Tricky: Did not arrive from New York until Tuesday, went to the track Wednesday and was razor sharp, giving the appearance she might run off once hitting the backstretch before coming to hand and settling into a nice relaxed gallop. All in all a very favorable first impression for the two-time Grade 1 winner.

Satans Quick Chick: Her only local work did not go well as she was rank on the way to the pole then had to be strongly encouraged to complete her final quarter-mile in nearly 25 seconds while also appearing to drift approaching the wire.

Ask the Moon: She was not asked for speed at any time in what amounted to nothing more than a maintenance move in her only local prep but has been very sharp and full of energy during all routine gallops coming out of that drill.

Royal Delta: She turned in two similarly spectacular works within a one-week span, the second of which may have been the best move turned in by any Breeders’ Cup participant, a super easy half-mile during which she completed her final quarter in 22.63 with the rider sitting as still as a statue throughout. Her gallop out was even more impressive, if that’s possible. Nobody is doing any better coming into this year’s Cup.

Plum Pretty: All her major preparations have been on the West Coast but she looked good during a routine gallop when visiting the track for the first time here on Wednesday. She figures to vie for the top prize in Friday’s main event with Royal Delta.

Super Espresso: She’s not the prettiest mover in the morning and her final work was just marginally better although she did manage to edge away at the end from her accomplished work mate Alma d’Oro albeit under pressure through a final quarter that barely shaded 26 seconds.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-05-2011, 03:56 AM

The Marathon

October 29, 2011

The Marathon

1 ¾ miles; $500,000; 3up; Saturday, Nov. 5th at 1:20 p.m.

The History

Run at 1 ½ miles in its first year before stretching out to this distance. European shippers won the first two runnings over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. This event is best known altercation between jockeys Javier Castellano and Calvin Borel at the scales after the 2010 race.

Favorites: 0 for 3 (0%)

Shortest: $14.80 (Man of Iron, 2009)

Highest: $26.80 (Muhannak, 2008)

Average win price: $21.60

The Best

GIANT OAK takes another crack at this after being moved up to fourth via DQ last year. After getting that elusive G1 win when placed first via DQ in the G1 Clark at the end of last season, Giant Oak made his first start of this year a winning one in the G1 Donn at Gulfstream but is winless in six starts since. An underachiever that usually winds up being the “wiseguy” horse wherever he runs, his connections are hoping a better trip than last year and the distance will get him to the winners’ circle.

Speaking of last years Marathon, the champ is here as ELDAAFER will be making his third consecutive start in the event. He’s won just twice this season in an allowance contest on the grass at old Atlantic City and in a money allowance race at Delaware. Last out he finished second in a minor stakes at Delaware and has failed to hit the board in his three graded stakes attempts.

BIRDRUN has had a fairly successful season despite racing with aluminum pads in most of his starts. After a second place finish to 2010 G1 Belmont winner/stablemate Drosselmeyer in a minor stakes at Belmont going 1 ¼ miles, Birdrun turned the tables when he went gate-to-wire in the G2 Brooklyn at 1 ½ miles. Birdrun was awarded first place money in the Greenwood Cup at Parx going 1 ½ miles before failing to fire off a ten week layoff in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last out.

The Rest

A.U. MINER finished fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after getting DQed for a medication positive in the Greenwood Cup. He was placed third in last years Marathon. AFLEET AGAIN comes into this off a thirteen race losing streak but did get elevated to second in the Greenwood Cup after racing wide. BARYSHNIKOV won three of four, including a minor stakes at Turfway, to start the season before losing his last five starts. He’s winless in eight starts on conventional dirt.

CEASE broke his maiden then won an entry level allowance contest, both over wet tracks in Saratoga, before hanging in the stretch when third in the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup last out. PLEASANT PRINCE has won two of his last three with the lone blemish coming in the G3 Iselin two back. He broke his maiden over the course nearly two years ago. TUTTI BUONA GENTE was claimed in July for $15K and won a starter handicap at Hoosier in his return to dirt last out. 2010 G1 Blue Grass winner STATELY VICTOR is winless in six starts on dirt and has first preference in the Turf.

Three Europeans will try the Marathon, all making their dirt debuts, starting with BRIGANTIN, who’s raced at distances beyond the 1 ¾ miles of the Marathon in his last six starts. HARRISON’S CAVE has won two of his last three against older and is making his graded stakes debut. MEEZNAH tries the boys again after getting beat over 46 lengths by them three starts back as the 3-1 favorite in England. Last year she finished behind a couple of Europe’s best fillies in Midday and Snow Fairy.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Birdrun, Meeznah, Tutti Buona Gente
Mid-pack: Baryshnikov, Brigantin, Cease, Eldaafer, Harrison’s Cave Stately Victor
Closers: A.U. Miner, Afleet Again, Giant Oak, Pleasant Prince

The Strategy

The marquee names in this event that figure to take the bulk of the money all have more cons than pros if you ask me. Spreading in multi-race exotics is suggested and don’t be afraid to think outside the box in here.

The Bomb

Trainer Andre Fabre could put a saddle on Elsie the Cow and I’d pay attention so Brigantin is where I’m going. With all the distance races he’s run, I certainly know he’s dead fit and will probably be 20-1.

Announcement

The Bum's 2011 Breeders Cup Best Bets and Exotics !

The Bum's 2011 Breeders Cup Best Bets and Exotics !

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