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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (11/6 - 11/7)

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  • #16
    NFL

    Monday, November 7


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    Tale of the tape: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
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    Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8, 47)

    Offense


    The Eagles boast the league’s No. 1 overall offense and rushing attack, paced by Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy. They’re averaging 6.6 yards per play and McCoy is ripping off 5.6 yards per rush, while Vick checks in at 8.3 yards per scamper. Philly also has a number of dangerous receiving threats with Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant all topping 400 receiving yards already.

    Philadelphia’s main offensive issues are turnovers and red zone efficiency. The Eagles lead the league with 17 turnovers and have only 16 touchdowns in 35 opportunities inside the 20-yard line. However, they picked up four of those TDs in last week’s blowout of Dallas.

    Chicago ranks in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories while averaging 24.3 points per game. Even though Matt Forte’s contract battle with the Bears doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon, he continues to be the team’s offensive workhorse. He has already cracked 1000 all-purpose yards this year and averages 5.4 yards per rush and 11 yards per catch.

    Jay Cutler owns a 84.0 QB rating and is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and six interceptions this season. Chicago’s offensive line has been better recently, but the Bears still struggle to convert on third down. Their success rate sits at only 29.9 percent heading into this one.

    Edge: Eagles


    Defense


    Chicago’s defense ranks 23rd overall and 28th against the pass. The Bears’ secondary is still a work in progress, but while it takes a lot of the heat, the club’s pass rush has generated just 15 sacks this season. Chicago’s run defense is usually solid (allowing 108 yards per game) but it has given up a bunch of big plays too. Opponents average 5.21 yards per run against Chicago and the Eagles could rip off some large runs off play action.

    Philly’s defense ranks 11th in the league, giving up about 330 yards of offense per game. The Eagles’ secondary is still struggling to mesh despite the additions of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, while Asante Samuel looks lost as a No. 3 corner. Philadelphia has forced only 10 turnovers to date (eight interceptions and two fumble recoveries) but gave Dallas a lot of problems last week with eight sacks and an interception.

    Edge: Eagles


    Special teams


    The Bears still get a major boost in the return game – when teams actually decide to kick to Devin Hester. He has eight returns for touchdowns in prime time games. Chicago is also very good on return coverage (22.1 yards per kick return, 4.6 yards per punt return) and Robbie Gould is hitting better than 93 percent of his field goal attempts.

    Philadelphia averages 21.1 yards per kickoff return and only 5.2 yards per punt return and although rookie kicker Alex Hendry has shown promise, he did miss a couple of kicks in Philadelphia’s loss to San Francisco. The Eagles’ kick return coverage sits 17th in the league and is in for a major test Monday night.

    Edge: Bears


    Word on the street


    "They play a nice, tight, sound, disciplined scheme, and it’s something that they’ve always been good at. And it’s a ’bend but don’t break’ mentality and they find ways to get it done, and in the past that’s happened. So hopefully, I’m definitely confident this time I’ll give (us) the best chance to win the football game. – Philadelphia quarterback Mike Vick on Chicago’s defense.

    “It’s a lot of different things. Not executing. Missed assignments. Missing throws. Missing hots. Lining up wrong. At the end of the day, we’re not executing like we should, when we get down there.” – Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler on the team’s red zone problems.

    Final score prediction

    Philadelphia 27, Chicago 24



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