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**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:31 AM

NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report

What do you remember about Baltimore’s thumping of Pittsburgh in the opener?

Aside from Super Bowl losers falling to 0-12 against the spread and 2-10 straight up in Week 1 the following season, here’s what I remember:

The Ravens went for two in highly unusual circumstances. They had just scored to take a 27-7, third-quarter lead, and there was holder Sam Koch taking the snap and running left into the end zone.

“It leaves a taste in your mouth,” Steelers wideout Hines Ward said then. “The 2-point conversion. The passing at the end.

“We’ll remember everything.”

Now they’re in position to do something about it.

At the time, the season opener felt like a coronation. The Ravens, who have not won the AFC North since 2006, would ascend to their rightful place and leave the aging, wounded Steelers in the dust.

Sunday, the Ravens were booed in their own stadium. They had to erase a 21-point deficit to beat woeful Arizona, one week after losing as double-digit favorites at Jacksonville.

The Steelers looked invigorated Sunday. They dismantled New England for their fourth straight win and own the AFC’s best mark at 6-2, half a game ahead of Baltimore and Cincinnati.

After the Week 1 blowout, Koch told the Baltimore Sun the 2-point conversion was not meant to send a message.

“You’ve got the Steelers and the Ravens, which is such a bitter rivalry year-in and year-out,” he said. “Rubbing it in their faces is definitely not the answer because you never know what can happen. You never know when a game can change or the momentum, especially in a game against the Steelers. It was just a way to add more points and give us a more comfortable lead.”

Coach John Harbaugh gave this explanation: “Sometimes you go with your head, sometimes you go with your heart. The second decision was probably going with my heart. I felt like we were going to get it. I felt like we could get it, and I thought we could really put the nail in the coffin.”
It was a humiliating loss for a proud franchise.

"The way they beat us is embarrassing," nose tackle Casey Hampton told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Since I've been here, nobody has beaten us like that on both sides of the ball for the entire game."

With the Steelers looking capable of exacting revenge, oddsmakers opened Pittsburgh as 3.5-point favorite in the Sunday night showdown.

“What’s always in the public’s mind is the last game," MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “Baltimore had to come back to beat a bad Arizona team, and Pittsburgh got the big win over New England. And it’s a revenge game: Pittsburgh got embarrassed. We figure the public’s going to figure they’re going to want to atone for that game.

“The public is going to want to bet Pittsburgh.”

You can break this game down from a myriad of angles.

Will LB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) be able to play? He has six sacks over the last three games.

How likely are the Steelers to play near-perfect games in consecutive weeks? Facing New England’s defense is like a 7-on-7 passing drill. Baltimore is another animal entirely. The Ravens hound opposing QBs into a 65.5 passer rating.

On the other side, the Ravens receivers create little separation. Especially compared to Pittsburgh’s speed demons: Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders.

Baltimore came back Sunday because Joe Flacco started throwing to a covered Anquan Boldin and the 6-1, 223-pounder made terrific catches. Boldin likely won’t go off against Ike Taylor and the Steelers’ top-rated pass defense, which allows 171.6 yards a game and 5.8 yards per attempt.

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Seattle at Dallas (-12.5, 42.5), Cleveland at Houston (-10.5, 41)

Everyone expects Dallas to bounce back from its no-show Sunday night.

Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson came back from his pectoral injury to throw for a career-high 323 yards against Cincinnati. But the Seahawks can’t run the ball, and usually their defense is weaker on the road.

Dallas is just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since last year.

Cleveland, coming off another ugly offensive performance, is 3-7 ATS as a road dog since last year.

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

New York Jets at Buffalo (-1, 43.5)

Teams coming off a bye were really struggling until Sunday, when they went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS to bring the season marks to 8-10 SU and 8-9-1 ATS. The Jets come off a bye after edging San Diego thanks to 13 Chargers’ penalties.

Buffalo is getting very little respect here for its 5-2 start.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New York Giants at New England (-9, 52.5), Green Bay at San Diego (4, 53)

Eli Manning is playing at a very high level. In his last six games, Manning has averaged 310 passing yards with 13 TDs and four INTs.

And the Patriots’ offense should rebound, creating an expected shootout.

“Everybody is going throw in a bad game now and then,” Stoneback said. “It’s rare for them to have two bad ones in a row. And they’re at home.”

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Francisco at Washington (3.5, 37.5)

This total has already dropped two points. The Redskins couldn’t score against the Bills, and now their best remaining receiver, tight end Fred Davis, is in a walking boot.

The 49ers allow a league-low 15.3 points per game.

**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:32 AM

NFL Week 8 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

When I meet people they always want to know if I bet on the sports I write about.

They want to hear an emphatic yes. They want to hear it’s easy. They want to hear I make loads of money doing it.

I don’t. And it’s harder than hell just to be average.

I actually don’t encourage people to gamble. I tell them that it’s incredible entertainment but unless they can dive into a pool of disposable income like Scrooge McDuck, don’t get too serious about sports betting.

I tried not to get too serious this year. But after a pretty good start it was hard to maintain that mindset.

I wasn’t sharp, but I was making paper cuts as an ordinary bettor. People started to notice and my confidence started to grow. Then Sunday came with a cold dose of reality. It’ll be tough to go to sleep tonight.

We’ve all had moments like this. You build a decent bankroll and then donate half of it to the Dark Side in one agonizing afternoon.

I’m not going to lie, I’m gun shy going into next week. But that doesn’t mean I won’t get back on the horse.

That’s the just game we play. But it’s a good thing I still have a day job.

Titanic team total

When you have an under bet you don’t want NFL RedZone cutting to highlights often.

I hoped we wouldn’t have to stomach much of the Colts-Titans game because a) Curtis Painter was on the field and b) I had under 26 for the Tennessee team total.

I really thought the Titans were going to try and discover their run game this week. Force-feeding CJ2K meant steady ticks off the clock.

And I thought the Indy defense would come out to play after giving up a hundred points last week. And you know what? It did…by Colts standards.

The defense only allowed 20. I would have cashed if not for a blocked punt recovered in the end zone. Too bad team totals aren’t graded like fantasy where defensive and special teams scores don’t count.

Of course I was tormented by the gambling gods until five minutes left when the Titans scored a garbage touchdown off a short field. Those were their only points in the second half and I missed the push by one. FML.

Giant disgrace

There’s just no way to sugarcoat it: The Giants play down to their competition.

I just think they’re a little too cocky. They thought they could slap around the Seahawks without Tuck and Jacobs and lost as double-digit chalk. Then they needed major comebacks against the Cards and Dolphins.

New York should be much better than it’s been -- on the field and at the wagering window. Yes, there are holes in the defense but the NFL’s best pass rush makes up for a lot. When it’s engaged there aren’t many lines that can stop it.

And I don’t understand why the offense still attempts to be a run-oriented. Eli is an elite quarterback and he has one of the best wideout trios in the game. I know you have to keep the defense honest with the run, blah, blah, blah, but why don’t you try chucking it around like all the other top teams in the league.

Damned “70-year-old man”

They say there’s holding on every play. That may be true, but they rarely call holding on receivers. Steve Smith and I aren’t happy with the blown call in the closing seconds at Carolina.

Some idiot zebra 20 yards away tossed a flag well after the alleged hold. The penalty negated a first-down run by Sir Newton, which would have set them up at the two-yard line. He would have scored on the next play, the Kittens would have won by four and I would have avoided a disastrous day.

Steve is trying to sidestep a fine with sarcasm but he wants to fight that old man, you can see it in his eyes

The Leans

Bengals +3 at Titans - The Gingerbread Kid and his cronies continue to defy the odds.

Niners -3.5 at Redskins - Why wouldn’t we start fading the Fightin’ Becks every week?

Giants +9 at Patriots - I said the G-Men play down to their competition, I didn’t say they should be a two-score dog. The last time they were, they beat the Eagles outright.

NFL Record: 21-11-2

**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:33 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Steelers look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 405-406: Atlanta at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.222; Indianapolis 121.771
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.865; New Orleans 140.290
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8); Over

Game 409-410: Cleveland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.199; Houston 136.126
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+11); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.337; Buffalo 137.524
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Miami at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.618; Kansas City 132.51
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 8; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 136.328; Washington 129.263
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 417-418: Seattle at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.075; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Dallas by 11 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-11 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Denver at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.607; Oakland 132.120
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Oakland by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9); Over

Game 421-422: Cincinnati at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.348; Tennessee 130.191
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Over

Game 423-424: St. Louis at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.945; Arizona 126.660
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 425-426: NY Giants at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.575; New England 143.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Over

Game 427-428: Green Bay at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.845; San Diego 134.478
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5); Under

Game 429-430: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.568; Pittsburgh 140.963
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 431-432: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.620; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+9); Under

**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:34 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

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Sunday, November 6

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 8) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (5 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (4 - 3) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (3 - 4) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 5) at DALLAS (3 - 4) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
DALLAS is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 25-57 ATS (-37.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 2) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 6) at ARIZONA (1 - 6) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 116-151 ATS (-50.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 116-151 ATS (-50.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (7 - 0) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 7

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CHICAGO (4 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) - 11/7/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 145-104 ATS (+30.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:35 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, 11/6/2011

ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 17-7 ATS in dome games
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 Over vs. non-conference

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 8-1 ATS as road underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 0-6 ATS at home vs. division

CLEVELAND at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 5-1 Under vs. Houston
HOUSTON: 8-22 ATS off home win

NY JETS at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 13-1 Over in road games
BUFFALO: 6-1 Over in all games

MIAMI at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 6-0 Under off a SU loss
KANSAS CITY: 13-29 ATS vs. AFC East

SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0-1 ATS this season
WASHINGTON: 6-0 Under after allowing 6+ yards/play BB games

SEATTLE at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 3-15 ATS as road underdog
DALLAS: 29-13 ATS off loss by 14+

DENVER at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
DENVER: 10-2 Over after allowing 40+ points
OAKLAND: 13-4 ATS off ATS loss

CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE, 4:05 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-1 Over in all games
TENNESSEE: 19-7 ATS as home favorite of 3 pts or less

ST LOUIS at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 7-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
ARIZONA: 6-0 Under vs. St. Louis

NY GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over on turf
NEW ENGLAND: 16-5 Over as favorite

GREEN BAY at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 8-0 Under as road favorite of 7 pts or less
SAN DIEGO: 0-5 ATS vs. Green Bay

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NBC
BALTIMORE: 6-1 Under after game w/ 50+ pass attempts
PITTSBURGH: 6-0 ATS playing w/ revenge

Monday, 11/7/2011

CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
CHICAGO: 11-1 Under as road underdog
PHILADELPHIA: 15-2 Under after gaining 7+ yards/play

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 09:37 AM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 18 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. KANSAS CITY
Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing New England
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing San Diego
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Baltimore

Monday, November 7

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

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**Udog** · 11-02-2011, 10:07 PM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

LSU at Alabama -5 ---> -4.5

Right now most shops are sending out Alabama -4.5 and Fuhrman isn’t so sure the action is moving the right way.

“Public, public, public,” Fuhrman says. “For whatever reason the betting public believes they're pulling a quick one on the books grabbing LSU with the points and I'm not sure I see it quite the same way.

"Nick Saban off a bye playing at home with the best player on the field in Heisman hopeful Trent Richardson seems an awfully intriguing public fade in my opinion.”

*Also, if you haven't already noticed, we're following this game's line moves all week with this story. Check back for the latest as the kickoff nears.

Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 ---> -14

Texas Tech is 3-3 against the spread in its last six and is just coming off an embarrassing outright loss at home to Iowa State as fat 15.5-point favorites. Can you blame early bettors for jumping on the Longhorns?

"If anyone out there has figured out Texas Tech please let me know," Fuhrman says. "This team needed late heroics to squeak by Nevada early in the year yet somehow goes into Norman and smacks the Sooners. Last week's loss is still a head scratcher since we figured they'd be flat against Iowa State, but losing 41-7 at home had a major wow factor. Texas is Texas and while I'm still not buying the Horns as a consistent double-digit chalk in conference, the bettors are telling us otherwise."

Vanderbilt at Florida -11 ---> -13.5

Vanderbilt has dropped two of its last three, but has also managed to cover the number in three straight. Still, bettors don't seem convinced the Commodores can hang with a battle-tested Florida club.

"The Gators have run through an SEC gauntlet lately, playing the conference's best teams in succession, Fuhrman says. John Brantley appears to be healthier than he's been and Vandy probably was overvalued by bookmakers on the opener based on their recent home results.

"I'll be impressed if the Commodores answer the bell in the Swamp Saturday after the heartbreaking loss to Arkansas one week ago."

NFL

Seattle at Dallas -13 ---> -11.5

This was supposed to be "the year" for the Cowboys, right? So far, they've been nothing but a headache for bettors, going just 2-4 against the number over their last six. The real issue here is Seattle is just as inconsistent at 3-3-1 against the number.

"I'm not sure what I'd call the Cowboys effort Sunday night but it sure wasn't one that makes you believe they're legitimate NFC contenders," Fuhrman says about Dallas' 34-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia. "Seattle has shown nothing to the betting public over the last few weeks. However, in this instance the double-digit points seem attractive given Dallas' sluggish effort in Week 8."

Miami at Kansas City -5 ---> -4

For all you bettors that left the Chiefs for dead when Jamaal Charles went down, take notice. Kansas City has covered the number in five straight games and better than 71 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were siding with the Chiefs as of Wednesday evening.

"Congrats to the K.C. Chiefs for making the AFC west a three horse race," Fuhrman says. "I'll be even more impressed if they go out and handle business against an NFL doormat in Miami following two huge wins over their division rivals. Situational handicappers will back Miami here and you see that in the move, while the betting public will be late arrivals on the K.C. bandwagon eager to lay points with a pedestrian offense."

Denver at Oakland -7 ---> -8.5

Well, Tebowmania sure was fun while it lasted. While the Denver quarterback has turned from Broncos savior to whipping boy, this week's line has followed suit.

"Tebow factor in reverse is what we're seeing here," Fuhrman says. "The luster has apparently worn off Denver and bettors are eager to oppose the Broncos' offense with a Carson Palmer led Raider team that will most likely be without the services of Darren McFadden. If the Raiders are serious about winning their division, they should be eager to beat up on the Broncos but do they have the firepower to do so?"

**Udog** · 11-04-2011, 10:05 AM

NFL

Week 9

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NFL Total Bias: Week 9 over/under picks
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Mere weeks ago, membership in the Temple of Tim Tebow runneth over.

After billboards begged for just a glimpse of their savior on Sundays, his disciples rejoiced as the tremendous Tebow resurrected his Denver Broncos from dead.

For a moment, after that improbable comeback win over the Dolphins, all was right in the world.

Then Broncos head coach John Fox went and fed the savior to the Lions – literally.

In times like these that I’m relieved Tim Tebow is a man of great faith, because right now, he needs somebody looking over his shoulder. Yes, the scripture-spitting, mad-scrambling, sponsor-signing, perfect-posing comeback kid has my sympathy.

Just weeks after he was proclaimed the second coming of football Jesus, the tide has turned. Now, after one of the ugliest performances that you’ll ever see in Detroit, he can do no right.

Is the criticism warranted? Of course it is. Tebow was truly terrible in last week’s loss.

But let’s be careful where we’re throwing the stones.

What was even worse was the situation the Broncos’ brass put him in. If anyone knows what Tebow can and cannot do, it has to be John Fox and John Elway. They succumbed to the pressure and put Kyle Orton on the bench to make way for him, right?

So you think they’d come into a game against one of the nastiest defensive line’s football has seen in years with some sort of clue. That isn’t how it played out. Tebow was sacked seven times and had two turnovers returned for touchdowns in the blowout while looking as lost as a priest in a brothel.

We’re at a crossroads with this situation and it looks like it may even get worse before it gets better. Now the Broncos have committed themselves to a system of quarterback draws, short screens and option plays because it’s quite obvious that is what Tebow is capable of and not much else.

So, knowing that, the Broncos need to build some sort of offense around his capabilities and they’d better hope to get an early lead this week against Oakland.

Otherwise, the Temple of Tebow may end up as just another fleeting faith.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8, 42.5)

Isn’t it just perfect that after all this Tebow mess he looks for his revival in the Black Hole?

Both of these clubs have obvious offensive issues. We’ve hammered on Denver’s problems but I’m not convinced the 2011 Carson Palmer will suddenly morph back into the 2007 version of himself – with or without the aging T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Oakland’s running attack will be fine with Michael Bush if Run DMC can’t go and I think this one ends up being a turf war. Neither club wants to risk the interceptions after last week.

This total has dropped a few points since the open but I’m still comfortable playing under 42.5.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (7, 44.5)

I just love how Jim Irsay keeps teasing Colts supporters. While it makes absolutely no sense to get Peyton Manning anywhere close to the playing field at this point, Irsay keeps hinting at the chance No. 18 could take some snaps this season.

This week he was tweeting that Peyton may practice sometime in the new year, so you know he’s getting pretty desperate to keep his team at all relevant. This whole fiasco is such a joke. You think Irsay feels a bit guilty for leaving the cupboard this bare?

I can honestly say that I never thought Indy would be quite this bad without Peyton, but I’d be embarrassed to be a Colts supporter at this point. Any team that completely forsakes the future and rests everything on one player’s shoulders should be ashamed of itself.

It’s one of those weird situations in which they don’t deserve anything that’s coming to them – i.e. Andrew Luck.

Pick: Under

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1, 44)

The only thing that would make me like Ryan Fitzpatrick any more is if he grew his beard out to Brian Wilson-like proportions and still wandered into every postgame presser with the same aw shucks demeanor.

Either that or he sculpts a beauty Lanny MacDonald handlebar for Movember.

Fitzpatrick just signed a $59-million deal over six years and it will be worth every penny if he can get the Bills to the playoffs. I like their chances. With a whack of receiving options and Fred Jackson tearing out of the backfield, there isn’t much to dislike about this offense.

And for all the talking Rex Ryan does about the Jets’ defense, they’re still giving up almost 22 points per game. I’m thinking Buffalo puts up more than that easily.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 13-11

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**Udog** · 11-04-2011, 10:32 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Falcons (4-3) @ Colts (0-8)-- Winless Indy failed to cover its last four games, but they've been competitive at home, losing by 8-3-4 points; Colts are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-1 at home. Indy is 13-1 in this series, with only loss in '98; Falcons are 0-3 in Indy, but haven't been here since '03. Atlanta won last two games (31-17/23-16) after shaky 2-3 start- they allowed 13 sacks in first three games, only five since. AFC South teams are 5-9 vs spread as an underdog in non-divisional games. Atlanta won five of last seven post-bye games, with two wins by more than 7 points- they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games as a post-bye favorite. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; five of last seven Indianapolis games went over.

Buccaneers (4-3) @ Saints (5-3)-- Bucs (+4.5) won first series matchup 26-20 at home three weeks ago, with +4 turnover ratio (4-0), but that was third week in row on road for New Orleans, which had hideous loss last week in St Louis. Bucs won three of last four visits here; only once in their last six visits here has game been decided by more than 4 points. Saints are 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 17-7-55 points; home side covered seven of their eight games. Home teams are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year. Bucs covered last five post-bye games, winning last four- they've covered last six games as post-bye dog. Four of last five Buc games stayed under total. Under is 8-2 this year in games involving road teams coming off a bye.

Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3)-- Wade Phillips' defense is improving; in last two games, Texans allowed 2.9/2.7 yards per pass- they've taken ball away twice in each of last three games. Cleveland lost three of last four games-- win was 6-3 over Seattle; teams split six meetings- average total in Cleveland's three wins was 43.7, in Houston's three 25.7. Browns scored 16 or less points in all three series losses. Texans are 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 27-7-10 points, with loss to Oakland. Browns' losses are by 10-18-7-10- they are 0-2 as an underdog this year. AFC South home favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North underdogs are 5-3. Under is 6-2 in Texan games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland games.

Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)-- Jets are 4-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 10-17-9 points, allowing 34-34-30 points, but they've won five of last six series games, winning 38-14/38-7 in LY's matchups- they won 26-17/38-14 in last two trips here. Bills are 3-0 in Orchard Park, winning by 3-3-7, scoring 38-34-31 points against good teams- their only losses are by 3 points each. Road teams coming off bye (2-1 this year) have historically been a good play. Jets are 0-2 in post-bye games under Ryan, after covering seven in row before Rex became coach. Teams are 1-3 the week after playing the Redskins, despite being favored in all four games. Home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 5-2 in Buffalo games, 4-1 in last five Jet games.

Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)-- Three of winless Miami's last five losses are by three points each; they're 2-2 as road underdog this year, 16-7 since 2008. Chiefs won last four games after 0-3 start; they're on short week after Monday night upset of divisional rival San Diego, with another rival (Denver) coming in next. This is first time KC has been favored since season opener; since '07, they are 3-7-1 as home favorites. This is Miami's 5th road game in last seven weeks; they scored 17 or less points in last six games. Last six Dolphin games, four of last five KC games stayed under the total. Teams are 0-4 vs spread week after playing the Giants. AFC East road dogs are 4-2 vs spread in its non-divisional games; AFC West home favorites are 2-3.

49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4)-- Niners won/covered last five games; they were +2 or better in turnovers in five of seven games this year. Redskins lost three in row since their bye, outscored 76-33; last week was first time a Shanahan team was shut out. Washington has started nine drives in enemy territory this year, but has only a TD, two FGs to show for it. Teams are 0-6 (2-4 vs spread, 0-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 4-1 SU (three of five were underdogs) week after playing Buffalo. In last three games, 49ers allowed only three TDs on 35 drives; Redskins scored three TDs on last 32 drives. Five of last six SF games stayed under the total. Winning a game like this, that they're expected to win on road, is a good yardstick of how good 49ers really are.

Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4)-- Dallas won last two series games, 34-9/38-17, but they're 4-9 vs spread in last 13 tilts as home favorite, 4-8 in last dozen as double digit favorite. Seattle failed to cover its last six games as a double digit dog. Dallas lost three of last four games, getting whacked by Eagles last week; Favorites are 2-0 vs spread week after playing Philly. Dogs are 4-1 week after playing Cincinnati. Seattle has seven takeaways (+3) in its two wins, three (-6) in its five losses. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over. NFC East home favorites are 2-6 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite. Seattle covered twice in its last eleven games as double digit dog- they're 1-2-1 as a road dog this year, losing by 16-24-3 points.

Broncos (2-5) @ Raiders (4-3)-- Oakland won last four series games, including 23-20 (+3) win in season opener in Mile High City, when they outrushed the Broncos 190-38. Denver has QB no one thinks is good, while Raiders are trying to force feed newly-acquired vet QB Palmer offense so they can win enough to make playoffs. Oakland is 0-9 vs spread in last nine post-bye games. Last four Raider games stayed under total. Broncos have 183-195 rushing yards in two Tebow starts, but averaged only 3.7/2.5 ypa- they have three TDs on 30 drives in his two starts. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games so far this season. Oakland is 4-3, with only one win by more than 7 points; they are 3-11 vs spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite.

Bengals (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)-- Cincy won/covered last four games; they've also covered five in row on road- they averaged 39 yards/punt return in 34-12 win at Seattle last week (was 17-12 before late TDs on defense/special teams). Bengals scored a defensive TD in each of last three games; they also have TD drives of 23-26 and two of 52 yards in last three games. Defense is putting the offense in good position to score- they're only NFL team to win battle for field position in every game this season. Over is 3-1 in Titans' last four games, 3-0 in Bengals' last three. Cincy lost six of last seven visits here, with five of last six losses by 7+ points. Tennessee won 10 of last 13 series games, they're 3-2 since they became divisional rivals.

Rams (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)-- Unsure what to make of Rams' upset win last week, but WR Lloyd has made big difference in passing game since coming over from Denver. Kolb (turf toe) unlikely to start at QB for Arizona; Bradford has bad ankle, but his backup Feeley is a much better option than Redbird backup QB Skelton (played for Fordham Rams in college). Rams got drilled in last three visits here, 48-19/34-10/31-10; they've lost eight of last nine series games, with five of eight losses by 14+ points. St Louis is 13-20 in last 33 tries as road dog, 0-3 this year, losing 28-16/24-3/34-7 on foreign soil. Arizona lost six games in row since winning opener; they're 2-6 as home fave. Rams scored three TDs on 12 drives last week, after scoring five on 67 drives in first six games.

Giants (5-2) @ Patriots (5-2)-- Teams' first meeting since Giants' ruined New England's perfect season in Super Bowl four years ago; Big Blue lost two of its three visits here (16-14/17-6) with average total in three games, 25.3. Pats are 20-6 vs spread in game following their last 26 losses- they're 11-7-1 in last 19 games as home favorites. Giants are 4-5 in last nine games as road dogs. Pats are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points. Favorites are 0-2 the week after playing the Steelers; dogs are 0-2 the week after playing Miami. First road game in five weeks for Giants, who are 1-2 this season when they don't win turnover battle. AFC East home favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Giants gave up 28-36 points in their two losses; Pats scored 30+ in 4 of 7 games.

Packers (7-0) @ Chargers (4-3)-- Green Bay won five in row, eight of nine vs Chargers, with only loss in 1984; they're 5-0 against the Bolts here. Chargers trying to bounce back from hideous OT loss in Knasas City Monday, when a botched center snap cost SD shot at easy win at end of regulation. Packers won 26-0/31-3 in last two post-bye games; they're 5-2 vs spread this year, winning road games by 7-10-11-6 points (2-2 as road fave this year, 12-8 since '07). San Diego is 1-3 this year when it allows 23+ points; Green Bay scored 3+ TDs in six of its seven games. Under is 2-0-1 in San Diego home games; this is the first home game in five weeks for Chargers, who lost last two games. NFC North favorites are 8-6 vs spread in its non-divisional games.

Ravens (6-2) @ Steelers (5-2)-- Baltimore (-2.5) pounded rivals 35-7 way back in Week 1, avenging loss in LY's playoffs, but Ravens lost five of last six here and haven't swept Steelers since 2006. Ravens outrushed Pitt 170-66 in opener, but haven't run for more than 113 yards in last four games- they rallied back to nip 1-6 Arizona last week after trailing 24-6 at half, avoiding their second loss in row. Ravens are the dog for first time this year; they're 9-5-2 in last 16 games as road underdog, but they've struggled on road, losing at Titans/Jaguars, with only win at 1-6 St Louis. Steelers are 4-0 at home this year, 2-1 as home fave, winning by average score of 26-12. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread the week after playing Arizona. Under is 6-0 in games involving teams who played Patriots in their last game.

Bears (4-3) @ Eagles (3-4)-- Chicago won three of last four series games, with all four games decided by 5 or less points; seven of last nine in series were won by 6 or less. Bears won four of last six visits here, but last visit here was in '07. Both teams won last two games after shaky starts; Chicago is 0-2 in true road games, losing 30-13 (+7) in Superdome, 24-13 in Detroit. Philly beat couple of divisional rivals after a 1-4 start; they allowed 13 or less points in all three wins 24+ points in all four losses. Chicago scored 24+ points in its wins, 17 or less in its losses. Teams won/covered all five games week after playing Dallas, with four of those five staying under total. All three Chicago road games went under the total. Winner gets back to .500; loser is in deep trouble.

**Udog** · 11-06-2011, 06:46 AM

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 9

After two weeks of rather weak matchups, the NFL finally presents several intriguing affairs in Week 9. So on to the poolies cheat sheet we go:

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-11.5)

Why Seahawks cover: Despite 2-5 straight-up mark – which by the way is good for second in NFC Worst, er, West – they’ve gone 3-1-1 against the spread last five. And Dallas averse to favorite’s role, with ATS slides of 2-9-1 overall and 2-7 at home.

Why Cowboys cover: As I’ve noted before, Seattle starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. If that’s not enough, Dallas 4-0-1 ATS last five off SU loss, and Seabirds paltry on road, with pointspread purges of 15-32-2 overall and 6-20-1 catching points. Pokes have also cashed last five vs. Seahawks.

Total (44): Several signs point to over, with Seattle surges of 14-4 overall and 7-2 on road, and total going high in 10 of Dallas’ last 12 on home turf.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

Why 49ers cover: Well, that’s what they do, better than anybody in NFL this season at 6-0-1 ATS. And at 6-1 SU, new coach Jim Harbaugh must have the magic touch – or at least a magic handshake. Niners have covered six straight as chalk, and ‘Skins meager 7-16-2 ATS last 25 at FedEx Field.

Why Redskins cover: Shutouts don't sit well with offensive gurus like Mike Shanahan. Even with a banged up attacking unit, Washington should put up a better offensive performance than last week against Buffalo and that may be enough to cover against San Fran. Niners finished with fewer than 300 total offensive yards against the Browns.

Total (37.5): Over 8-1 49ers’ last nine vs. NFC, but Washington on boatload of under streaks, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-0 against winning squads and 9-3 getting points.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Why Jets cover: With game ostensibly a pick ‘em, numbers in this rivalry favor Gang Green -- Jets have won and cashed last three overall and are 4-1 ATS last five trips to Buffalo. Road team 6-1 ATS last seven.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has an Ivy League pedigree from Harvard, and he’s not nearly as hyped as Southern Cal product Mark Sanchez, but he’s better than the Sanchize. Fitzpatrick sixth in league with 97.8 rating; Sanchez 16th with 83.0 rating.

Total (44): Over has hit in seven of last eight for Bills and 23 of last 31 for Jets.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10.5)

Why Browns cover: Not much positive to say on their end, but Houston has struggled coming off SU wins, with 1-6-1 ATS mark last eight in that spot.

Why Texans cover: Have won last two games by double digits, rounding into form as team that should run away with AFC South. And Cleveland on spate of ATS dives, including 1-8-2 overall and 0-6 as a pup.

Total (41): Matt Schaub & Co. on under stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 as favorite and 10-3 vs. losing teams. Total has gone low in five of Cleveland’s last six on highway.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Falcons cover: Coming off bye week after finding groove with back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Michael Turner has rushed for over 100 yards in back to back games and Atlanta’s offense could get a boost if rookie wideout Julio Jones returns from injury. Falcons 7-1 ATS last eight vs. losing squads.

Why Colts cover: Does the “Even a blind squirrel gets nut every now and then” theory come into play? Indy 12-4-2 ATS last 18 vs. winning teams, despite 2-6 overall ATS mark this year.

Total (44): Under the play in four of ATL’s last five, but Indy sports over streaks of 6-1 overall and 6-1 vs. winning units.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Why Buccaneers cover: Fired up over complete lack of respect as 9-point dog, just three weeks after dumping Saints 26-20 in Tampa getting 6 points. In fact, Bucs have won SU and ATS three of last four in this rivalry, including last two trips to Superdome, and are 7-1 ATS last seven at New Orleans.

Why Saints cover: Revenge factor for aforementioned upset loss last month. Plus, they should be seriously smarting after ringing up 62-7 beatdown against winless Colts two weeks ago, only to follow up with 31-21 loss to previously winless Rams as 13.5-point road chalk last week. Saints 6-1 ATS last seven at home dome.

Total (50): Despite Saints’ high-octane offense, last six in this NFC South rivalry have gone low, with 46 points reached in last month’s meeting the highest amount in that stretch. In NFC South play, under 10-3 Bucs’ last 13 and 6-1 Saints’ last seven.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

Why Dolphins cover: They’re winless SU, but hey, they’re on one-game spread covering streak, after 0-8-1 ATS dive dating to last season. K.C. also averse to chalk, at 4-12-1 ATS last 17 in that spot.

Why Chiefs cover: They are legitimately hot, winning four in row SU and five consecutive ATS.

Total (40.5): Both teams have sea of under trends, including 6-0 overall for Miami, 16-5 with Fish a road ‘dog, 4-1 overall for Chiefs and 4-1 at home for K.C.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-9)

Why Broncos cover: They’re among worst in league ATS past few years, so best hope to cash rests with Oakland’s long-standing streak of being lousy after bye week, dropping eight in row ATS.

Why Raiders cover: What does Tim Tebow have in common with your weekly groceries? Both get sacked – and in Tebow’s case, a lot, at 13 times in just two starts. Oakland licking its chops for shot at Tebow. Raiders 8-1 ATS last nine division tilts; Broncos 8-22-2 ATS last 32 in AFC West.

Total (42.5): Denver on over runs of 21-7 overall and 20-7 in division play, while under has hit in four straight for Raiders. But total has gone high last four in this rivalry.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Why Bengals cover: Rookie QB Andy Dalton far better than expected this year, but real reason for success lies with stingy Cincy defense, fourth in NFL in allowing just 17.6 ppg. Bengals have cashed four in row overall, five in row on highway and eight straight inside AFC.

Why Titans cover: Not much that’s impressive about Tennessee, but you’ve got to figure that at some point, stud RB Chris Johnson will bust out with Chris Johnson-type game, after netting just 302 yards and 1 TD so far this season (43.1 ypg).

Total (41.5): Despite Bengals’ defense, over on upticks for Cincy of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in roadies.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers

Why Packers cover: Reigning Super Bowl champs don’t lose at all SU (13-0 tear) and don’t lose much at betting window, cashing 10 of 13 in current streak. And BTW, Pack’s average margin of victory during 13-game streak? 13 points.

Why Chargers cover: If Philip Rivers and Co. have any pride at all, they should not only cash this week, but put first blemish on Green Bay’s SU record. Bolts should be fuming after two consecutive SU and ATS losses in games they gave away – at Jets and at Kansas City. As underdog, San Diego on ATS sprees of 22-7-3 overall and 5-0 at Qualcomm.

Total (51): With two big-armed QBs – Rivers and the Pack’s Aaron Rodgers – you’d think over might look good. But total has gone low 11 of Green Bay’s last 15 on road and seven straight at home for San Diego.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Why Rams cover: Have a burst of confidence after shocking Saints 31-21 last week as big 13.5-point home ‘dog, notching first win of year, either SU or ATS. And Steven Jackson got his mojo back in the upset, with 159 rushing yards and 2 TDs. St. Louis 4-1 ATS last five in NFC West; Cards have dropped six straight ATS in division play.

Why Cardinals cover: Nearly pulled off feat similar to Rams last week, falling just short 30-27 catching 12 points at Baltimore. Chalk 6-1 ATS last seven in this rivalry.

Total (41.5): When these two get together, under is order of day – six in a row overall, six of last seven in desert.

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-9)

Why Giants cover: For better or worse, Tom Coughlin’s troops often play to level of opponent – and New England very good opponent, so 9 points is quite a bit to get. New York also solid ATS on road, at 29-13 last 42.

Why Patriots cover: Got popped in mouth last week at Pittsburgh, and Bill Belichick not one to let his team get embarrassed two straight weeks. In fact, Pats a good bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 6-1 after non-cover and 25-9-1 after SU setback.

Total (50.5): If New England’s playing, watch out for over. Total has cleared price 20 of Pats’ last 26 overall and eight of last nine in Foxborough.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Why Ravens cover: Already pasted Pittsburgh 35-7 in Week 1 as 1-point home favorite. Baltimore lucked out to get split past two weeks against lightweights Jacksonville and Arizona – losing both ATS. Pittsburgh should get Ravens’ full attention.

Why Steelers cover: Eager to avenge meltdown against archrival in season opener, and they’re coming off big confidence builder in 25-17 win over New England last week as 3-point home pups. Pittsburgh on pair of 6-1 ATS streaks, in AFC North play and in Steel City.

Total (41.5): Baltimore has No. 1 yardage defense (263.3 ypg) and No. 2 scoring defense (15.7 ppg). Pittsburgh has No. 2 yardage defense (270.8 ypg) and No. 3 scoring defense (17.4 ppg). So of course, in this rivalry, over has gone 8-3-1 last dozen overall and 6-1-1 last eight at Heinz Field.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why Bears cover: Giving nine points to team that reached last year’s NFC title game seems a stretch, to be sure. Perhaps overlooked is that these two teams have met each of last four years, and Bears have gone 3-1 SU and ATS, all as a ‘dog. Philly in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 4-9 vs. winning teams and 1-5 at home (all as chalk).

Why Eagles cover: Michael Vick-led offense tears it up with league-best 449 ypg – 112 more than Bears’ average – and No. 1 rushing attack at whopping 179.9 ypg, which can chew up some serious clock and limit Bears opportunities. That’s what happened vs. Dallas last week in Philly’s 34-7 rout, with Eagles keeping ball 42 minutes. Andy Reid’s troops have cashed four straight on Monday night.

Total (47): Under 5-1 Eagles’ last six at home and 20-8 Bears’ last 28 on highway.

**Udog** · 11-06-2011, 06:49 AM

Where the action is: NFL Week 9 line moves

It appears books and bettors have a better handle on this crazy NFL season. Heading into Week 9, there are fewer significant line moves. We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbooks manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the NFL board.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals – Open: -3.5, Move: -1.5, Move: -2.5

According to Rood, this lackluster game is the most bet contest on the Week 9 board. Most of that action has to do with injuries on both sides. Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is doubtful with a foot injury and Rams QB Sam Bradford is questionable with a sprained ankle. Rood says these line moves have left them vulnerable to a 3-point finish.

“It’s not a great spot to be in with action on the fave at 2.5 and buy backs at 3.5,” says Rood. “Hopefully this game doesn’t drop in that 10 percent category and land right on three. It just has three written all over it.”

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Open: Pick, Move -2.5

Sharp money jumped all over the Bills at home early in the week. Rood, who currently has Buffalo -2.5, won’t go up to -3 unless the public piles on the home side before kickoff Sunday.

“The Bills are a more bettor-friendly team,” he says. “They score a lot of points, which is attractive to the crowd you have in here on Sundays. People are buying into the Bills while they’re fading on the Jets. New York talks a lot but doesn’t back it up.”

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins – Open: 39.5, Move: 37.5

The total for this game has dropped from its opening. Rood points to the Redskins offensive issues, especially last week’s shutout loss to Buffalo in Toronto. San Francisco remains one of the best defensive squads in the NFL.

“The clock will get chewed up pretty quick in this one,” Rood says. “I can understand why they’re betting the under.”

“This number is like a throwback to like 1994,” he adds. “You don’t see these 39, 38, 37-point totals anymore. Maybe they’ll wear the throwback jerseys as well?”

**Udog** · 11-06-2011, 06:50 AM

NFL

Week 9

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NFL betting weather report: Week 9
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The NFL enters its first Sunday in November. Find out how the winter weather will impact your Week 9 bets.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-7, 42.5)

The forecast for the Bay Area is calling for a 44 percent chance of rain.

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+5.5, 50.5)

Rain is in the forecast for San Diego, with an 83 percent chance of rain Sunday. Winds will blow WSW from corner to corner, at speeds of up to 11 mph.

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**Udog** · 11-06-2011, 06:53 AM

NFL

Week 9

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Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Steelers
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 41.5)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers have found their stride after a sluggish start to the season, reeling off four consecutive victories to move into sole possession of first place in the AFC North Division. They will have a chance to take control of the division race and avenge an ugly season-opening loss when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. It won't be an easy task against Baltimore, which mauled Pittsburgh 35-7 in Week 1 in one of the most lopsided games in the bitter rivalry. The Ravens have struggled in back-to-back games and are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for second place in the AFC North – one-half game behind the Steelers.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: The Steelers opened around 3.5-point favorites and are sitting between -3 and -3.5. The total opened at 43 points and has been bet down to 41.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s are in the forecast for Pittsburgh. Winds will blow south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-2, 4-3 ATS): Baltimore erased a 21-point second-quarter deficit to overcome visiting Arizona 30-27 last week. Ray Rice rushed for a career-high three touchdowns – all in the second half. The Ravens’ defense allowed only 207 total yards one week after limiting Jacksonville to 205 yards in a 12-7 loss. Joe Flacco threw for 331 yards but he has tossed only one TD pass against four interceptions in the past four games. His QB rating has not surpassed 78.5 in five of the seven games. WR Anquan Boldin had seven catches for 145 yards. Baltimore has allowed an AFC-low 15.7 points per game.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-2, 4-4 ATS): Pittsburgh turned in its most impressive performance of the season, shackling Tom Brady in a 25-17 win over the New England Patriots. QB Ben Roethlisberger carved up the Patriots, throwing for 365 yards on 36 of 50 passing as the Steelers held the ball for nearly 39 ½ minutes. Roethlisberger has thrown for 726 yards in the past two games and has 11 scoring passes and only two interceptions during the four-game winning streak. Pittsburgh, which held the high-scoring Patriots to only 213 yards in total offense, is ranked No. 1 in the league with 171.6 passing yards allowed per game.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin needs one victory to become the fourth coach in franchise history with 50 wins.

2. Boldin needs 104 yards to reach 9,000 for his career.

3. Eight of the last 10 meetings between the teams have been decided by seven points or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Ravens are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Ravens 13. Steelers are at the top of their game while Ravens continue to struggle, particularly on offense.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 07:16 AM

NFL

Monday, November 7

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8, 47)

THE STORY: The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles both seek their third straight victory when the teams square off at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. Chicago will be playing its first game on North American soil since a 39-10 home triumph over Minnesota on Oct. 16. The Bears posted a 24-18 win over Tampa Bay in London on Oct. 23 before enjoying their bye last week. Philadelphia has rebounded from four straight losses by recording consecutive victories over NFC East rivals Washington and Dallas in which it has allowed a total of 20 points while scoring 54. Chicago has won three of its last four meetings with the Eagles, including its most recent visit to the City of Brotherly Love in October 2007.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Eagles -8, O/U 47.

WEATHER: Clear skies are expected with only 4 mph winds blowing WSW. The temperature should be around 46 degrees.

ABOUT THE BEARS (3-4): Running back Matt Forte is anything but happy with his current situation. Forte, who leads the NFL with 1,091 yards from scrimmage, has a base salary of just $555,000 this season and feels he is vastly underpaid considering his workload. Furthermore, the 25-year-old is likely to receive the team's franchise player tag instead of the lucrative contract extension he is seeking, a probability that had Forte voicing his displeasure and questioning the Bears' loyalty during the week. Forte gained 117 yards on 14 carries in a home win over Philadelphia last season.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-3): LeSean McCoy poses a major test for Chicago's run defense. McCoy, who has scored at least one rushing touchdown in six of Philadelphia's seven games, is coming off a career-best 185-yard effort in last Sunday's 34-7 rout of Dallas and is averaging a league-high 107.7 yards per contest. McCoy caught a TD pass in his only game without a score on the ground, making him the only player in the league to find the end zone in every contest this season.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick is 0-3 lifetime as a starter against the Bears. In five career meetings, Vick has been sacked 15 times, thrown three interceptions and fumbled on seven occasions.

2. Chicago has allowed a total of 83 rushing yards in its last two contests.

3. Each of the last four meetings between the Eagles and Bears has been decided by five points or less.

TRENDS:

- Philadelphia is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games overall.
- Chicago is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven Monday games.
- The underdog is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
- The under is 20-8 in Chicago's last 28 road games.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Bears 21. Philadelphia continues its turnaround as Vick finally gets in the win column against Chicago.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (11/6 - 11/7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (11/6 - 11/7)

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