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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 10
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans (-27.5, 47)
Why Minnesota will cover: The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Minnesota is coming off a SU win vs. Iowa. Perhaps the team is figuring things out.
Why Michigan State will cover: The Gophers rank 107th in passing, while the Spartans are No. 1 in pass defense. Once MSU takes a lead, it’s only going to get worse.
Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-12, 60.5)
Why Texas Tech will cover: Texas Tech can score with the best of them and if it can get a lead, the Longhorns aren’t great at rallying. Texas is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the Big 12.
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are 17th in rushing, and the Raiders are 114th at stopping the run. Texas’ defense remains strong at all levels.
Points: The under is 7-3 in Texas Tech’s last 10 as an underdog.
Louisville Cardinals at West Virginia Mountaineers (-13.5, 51.5)
Why Louisville will cover: The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four, thanks to a defense that ranks 11th in scoring (16.2 ppg) and 11th in rushing (97.4).
Why West Virginia will cover: No game is out of reach for the Mountaineers and their No. 7 passing offense, as evidenced by last week’s big rally over Rutgers.
Points: The over has hit in WVU’s last seven games, but the under is 7-0-1- for UofL.
Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (+4, 57)
Why Michigan will cover: Michigan’s defense ranks sixth in points allowed (14.6 ppg), and Iowa’s offense doesn’t have much going on right now. Iowa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight in the Big 10.
Why Iowa will cover: The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Iowa is a perfect 5-0 at home.
Points: As Michigan’s defense has improved, so have the chances for the under.
New Mexico State Aggies at Georgia Bulldogs (-34.5, 57.5)
Why New Mexico State will cover: The Aggies have scored 31 or more points in their last four games. Scoring enough to cover shouldn’t take that many.
Why Georgia will cover: The Bulldogs’ defense ranks in the top 25 in every category, and that’s mainly against SEC competition. How are the Aggies going to put up big numbers?
Points: The over has hit in NMSU’s last five games, but the under is 4-1 in Georgia’s last five.
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-17.5, 63.5)
Why Northwestern will cover: The Wildcats’ offense can score in multiple ways. If they can get a lead, Nebraska can’t throw.
Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers’ defense seems to be figuring things out, allowing just 17 points the last two games. Nebraska has the potential to run away with this one, especially at home.
Points: The over is 5-0 in Northwestern’s last five and Nebraska can hit on a big play at any moment.
Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 68.5)
Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M’s three losses have come by a combined 12 points - less than the spread of this one. The Aggies have the offense to keep up.
Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma averages 397 ypg through the air (No. 2), Texas A&M allows 318 ypg through the air (No. 120). The home team is 11-2 in the last 13 in this series.
Points: We should see more touchdowns than punts in this one.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (+20.5, 60.5)
Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal had a wake-up call last week, and still won at USC in overtime. And still covered (8-0 ATS).
Why Oregon State will cover: The Beavers can move the ball through the air, which could keep them in the game into the fourth quarter.
Points: The over has hit in four of OSU’s last five and in Stanford’s last two.
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-25.5, 57)
Why Purdue will cover: Purdue has a balanced offense and had been playing better before last week’s rough loss to Michigan. The Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four.
Why Wisconsin will cover: Two losses on two Hail Marys in two weeks? Hard to imagine happening at home against a team ranked 90th in passing. UW is 12-3-1 in last 16 at home and overall.
Points: The Badgers average 45 ppg and should be poised to pour it on. Purdue can also score.
Southern Miss Eagles at East Carolina Pirates (+8.5, 58)
Why Southern Miss will cover: Southern Mississippi is 6-0 ATS in its last six, and is a team on the rise. ECU struggles to run the ball and stop the run.
Why East Carolina will cover: The Pirates, however, can pass the ball and stop the pass. They’ve scored 34, 35 and 38 in their last three.
Points: The under is 6-2 in USM games, but this is an offense that can score in a hurry. So can ECU.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers (+2.5, 54)
Why Cincinnati will cover: The Bearcats’ offense averages more than 200 yards both rushing and passing and 41 ppg. That’s a small spread for a team that has been scoring at will.
Why Pittsburgh will cover: Cincy is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Big East games, while Pitt is 14-5 in its last 19. Cincinnati ranks 109th in pass defense.
Points: If the conditions are right, the over could be hit by halftime.
Houston Cougars at UAB Blazers (+28, 73)
Why Houston will cover: The Cougars are 6-2 ATS thanks to the nation’s best offense, which is tops in scoring (52.2 ppg) and passing (453 ypg). UAB’s defense can’t defend the pass.
Why UAB will cover: The Blazers did cover their previous five before last week’s blowout loss to Marshall.
Points: The under is 7-3 in UAB’s last 10, but the over is 6-2 for Houston this season.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (-5, 52.5)
Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks’ strengths (run offense, pass defense) match up well with what the Razorbacks will be looking to do.
Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas is 8-2 ATS against USC in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS at home this season.
Points: The under is 5-1 in USC’s last six. This is a game that could go in either direction.
Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins (+9.5, 55)
Why Arizona State will cover: Statistically, ASU has the edge in just about every conceivable way. UCLA is a miserable 3-13 ATS in its last 16.
Why UCLA will cover: The Bruins are 6-2 ATS against the Devils in their last eight. Maybe the impressive win at Cal sparks a UCLA team that was expected to be better.
Points: The over is 7-1 in ASU games and could run away with this one, but the under has hit in UCLA’s last three.
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-5, 41.5)
Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have no weaknesses; they can run, pass (on the rare times they have to), stop the run and stop the pass. LSU has fared well against comparable Alabama opponents.
Why Alabama will cover: Bama’s defense may go down as one of the best of all time. It currently ranks No. 1 nationally in points allowed (6.9 ppg), rushing yards (44.9) and total yards (180.5) and No. 2 in pass yards (135.6). The offense isn’t bad either, in the top 15 in rushing yards and points scored. Plus, getting this showdown at home at night doesn’t hurt.
Points: It’s hard to imagine this game becoming a shootout.
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21, 68)
Why Kansas State will cover: The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven, ranking 20th in rushing and 17th in rush defense. OSU’s defense is 84th against the run.
Why Oklahoma State will cover: The only team hotter than KSU is OSU, which is 7-0 ATS in its last seven. The Cowboys rank fourth in passing and second in scoring, while KSU’s defense is 103rd in pass defense.
Points: Both teams have great offenses and so-so defenses. Could make for a big day on both sides.
Boise State Broncos at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+41, 59.5)
Why Boise State will cover: The Rebels have little chance of forcing more than 1-2 punts from the Broncos. If Boise State scores TDs and doesn’t settle for FGs — like usual — it might win by 60.
Why UNLV will cover: If UNLV has a strength, it’s running the ball. Keep it on the ground, score twice late, and covering that monstrous spread at home is possible. It does enter on a one-game win streak.
Points: Boise State will do its part to hit the over.
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+16, 74)
Why Oregon will cover: Washington’s defense has struggled, and Oregon’s offense is No. 4 in scoring and rushing. The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Why Washington will cover: The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and 7-1-1 in their last nine conference games, and the team’s offense can generate the points to stick around, as it has all season.
Points: The scoreboard will be bright by the end of this one.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans (-27.5, 47)
Why Minnesota will cover: The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Minnesota is coming off a SU win vs. Iowa. Perhaps the team is figuring things out.
Why Michigan State will cover: The Gophers rank 107th in passing, while the Spartans are No. 1 in pass defense. Once MSU takes a lead, it’s only going to get worse.
Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-12, 60.5)
Why Texas Tech will cover: Texas Tech can score with the best of them and if it can get a lead, the Longhorns aren’t great at rallying. Texas is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the Big 12.
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are 17th in rushing, and the Raiders are 114th at stopping the run. Texas’ defense remains strong at all levels.
Points: The under is 7-3 in Texas Tech’s last 10 as an underdog.
Louisville Cardinals at West Virginia Mountaineers (-13.5, 51.5)
Why Louisville will cover: The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four, thanks to a defense that ranks 11th in scoring (16.2 ppg) and 11th in rushing (97.4).
Why West Virginia will cover: No game is out of reach for the Mountaineers and their No. 7 passing offense, as evidenced by last week’s big rally over Rutgers.
Points: The over has hit in WVU’s last seven games, but the under is 7-0-1- for UofL.
Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (+4, 57)
Why Michigan will cover: Michigan’s defense ranks sixth in points allowed (14.6 ppg), and Iowa’s offense doesn’t have much going on right now. Iowa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight in the Big 10.
Why Iowa will cover: The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Iowa is a perfect 5-0 at home.
Points: As Michigan’s defense has improved, so have the chances for the under.
New Mexico State Aggies at Georgia Bulldogs (-34.5, 57.5)
Why New Mexico State will cover: The Aggies have scored 31 or more points in their last four games. Scoring enough to cover shouldn’t take that many.
Why Georgia will cover: The Bulldogs’ defense ranks in the top 25 in every category, and that’s mainly against SEC competition. How are the Aggies going to put up big numbers?
Points: The over has hit in NMSU’s last five games, but the under is 4-1 in Georgia’s last five.
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-17.5, 63.5)
Why Northwestern will cover: The Wildcats’ offense can score in multiple ways. If they can get a lead, Nebraska can’t throw.
Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers’ defense seems to be figuring things out, allowing just 17 points the last two games. Nebraska has the potential to run away with this one, especially at home.
Points: The over is 5-0 in Northwestern’s last five and Nebraska can hit on a big play at any moment.
Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 68.5)
Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M’s three losses have come by a combined 12 points - less than the spread of this one. The Aggies have the offense to keep up.
Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma averages 397 ypg through the air (No. 2), Texas A&M allows 318 ypg through the air (No. 120). The home team is 11-2 in the last 13 in this series.
Points: We should see more touchdowns than punts in this one.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (+20.5, 60.5)
Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal had a wake-up call last week, and still won at USC in overtime. And still covered (8-0 ATS).
Why Oregon State will cover: The Beavers can move the ball through the air, which could keep them in the game into the fourth quarter.
Points: The over has hit in four of OSU’s last five and in Stanford’s last two.
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-25.5, 57)
Why Purdue will cover: Purdue has a balanced offense and had been playing better before last week’s rough loss to Michigan. The Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four.
Why Wisconsin will cover: Two losses on two Hail Marys in two weeks? Hard to imagine happening at home against a team ranked 90th in passing. UW is 12-3-1 in last 16 at home and overall.
Points: The Badgers average 45 ppg and should be poised to pour it on. Purdue can also score.
Southern Miss Eagles at East Carolina Pirates (+8.5, 58)
Why Southern Miss will cover: Southern Mississippi is 6-0 ATS in its last six, and is a team on the rise. ECU struggles to run the ball and stop the run.
Why East Carolina will cover: The Pirates, however, can pass the ball and stop the pass. They’ve scored 34, 35 and 38 in their last three.
Points: The under is 6-2 in USM games, but this is an offense that can score in a hurry. So can ECU.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers (+2.5, 54)
Why Cincinnati will cover: The Bearcats’ offense averages more than 200 yards both rushing and passing and 41 ppg. That’s a small spread for a team that has been scoring at will.
Why Pittsburgh will cover: Cincy is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Big East games, while Pitt is 14-5 in its last 19. Cincinnati ranks 109th in pass defense.
Points: If the conditions are right, the over could be hit by halftime.
Houston Cougars at UAB Blazers (+28, 73)
Why Houston will cover: The Cougars are 6-2 ATS thanks to the nation’s best offense, which is tops in scoring (52.2 ppg) and passing (453 ypg). UAB’s defense can’t defend the pass.
Why UAB will cover: The Blazers did cover their previous five before last week’s blowout loss to Marshall.
Points: The under is 7-3 in UAB’s last 10, but the over is 6-2 for Houston this season.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (-5, 52.5)
Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks’ strengths (run offense, pass defense) match up well with what the Razorbacks will be looking to do.
Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas is 8-2 ATS against USC in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS at home this season.
Points: The under is 5-1 in USC’s last six. This is a game that could go in either direction.
Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins (+9.5, 55)
Why Arizona State will cover: Statistically, ASU has the edge in just about every conceivable way. UCLA is a miserable 3-13 ATS in its last 16.
Why UCLA will cover: The Bruins are 6-2 ATS against the Devils in their last eight. Maybe the impressive win at Cal sparks a UCLA team that was expected to be better.
Points: The over is 7-1 in ASU games and could run away with this one, but the under has hit in UCLA’s last three.
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-5, 41.5)
Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have no weaknesses; they can run, pass (on the rare times they have to), stop the run and stop the pass. LSU has fared well against comparable Alabama opponents.
Why Alabama will cover: Bama’s defense may go down as one of the best of all time. It currently ranks No. 1 nationally in points allowed (6.9 ppg), rushing yards (44.9) and total yards (180.5) and No. 2 in pass yards (135.6). The offense isn’t bad either, in the top 15 in rushing yards and points scored. Plus, getting this showdown at home at night doesn’t hurt.
Points: It’s hard to imagine this game becoming a shootout.
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21, 68)
Why Kansas State will cover: The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven, ranking 20th in rushing and 17th in rush defense. OSU’s defense is 84th against the run.
Why Oklahoma State will cover: The only team hotter than KSU is OSU, which is 7-0 ATS in its last seven. The Cowboys rank fourth in passing and second in scoring, while KSU’s defense is 103rd in pass defense.
Points: Both teams have great offenses and so-so defenses. Could make for a big day on both sides.
Boise State Broncos at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+41, 59.5)
Why Boise State will cover: The Rebels have little chance of forcing more than 1-2 punts from the Broncos. If Boise State scores TDs and doesn’t settle for FGs — like usual — it might win by 60.
Why UNLV will cover: If UNLV has a strength, it’s running the ball. Keep it on the ground, score twice late, and covering that monstrous spread at home is possible. It does enter on a one-game win streak.
Points: Boise State will do its part to hit the over.
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+16, 74)
Why Oregon will cover: Washington’s defense has struggled, and Oregon’s offense is No. 4 in scoring and rushing. The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Why Washington will cover: The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and 7-1-1 in their last nine conference games, and the team’s offense can generate the points to stick around, as it has all season.
Points: The scoreboard will be bright by the end of this one.
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