The Bums CFB Week # 10 Best Bets 11/1-11/5 !

[StarDust Bum]

South Carolina-Arkansas battle as top-10 teams

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (7-1)
at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Arkansas -5, Total: 53

Two red-hot SEC teams collide when No. 10 South Carolina brings a three-game win streak into Fayetteville to face No. 8 Arkansas, which has four consecutive victories.

South Carolina’s defense has been very stingy, allowing just 37 points in its past five games (7.4 PPG), thanks in part to 17 forced turnovers. But the Cocks haven’t faced an offense quite like Arkansas. The Razorbacks are averaging 35.0 PPG during their win streak, as QB Tyler Wilson is throwing for 330 YPG with nine total touchdowns during the run. The Hogs have had little trouble scoring against South Carolina in the past five meetings, putting up 33.8 PPG and going 4-1 (SU and ATS). And without injured star RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina is struggling to move the football, scoring just 28 points in the past two games. The Hogs are 16-2 (12-5 ATS) at home over the past three seasons and should have no trouble covering this spread. The pick here is ARKANSAS.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also support the Razorbacks:

Play On - Home favorites (ARKANSAS) - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. (43-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SOUTH CAROLINA) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Gamecocks freshman RB Brandon Wilds did a nice job filling in for Lattimore last week, rushing for 137 yards in a 14-3 win at Tennessee. He also caught three passes for 31 more yards. Sophomore QB Connor Shaw has played pretty well since replacing the dismissed Stephen Garcia, connecting on 56-of-85 passes (66%) for 6 TD and 3 INT in the past three games. Shaw has also rushed for 134 yards in these three outings. The fluctuating QB position has not helped star WR Alshon Jeffery though. After a season of 88 catches for 1,517 yards in 2010, Jeffery has just 33 grabs for 468 yards in eight games this year. In the past two games, he has gained a meager 41 yards on eight receptions. Although, Jeffery has enjoyed success against Arkansas, catching 12 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown in two career meetings.

South Carolina ranks third in the nation in passing defense (136 YPG) and sixth in total defense (266 YPG). Much of that has to do with constant pressure from a defensive line featuring senior Melvin Ingram (5.5 sacks, 9 TFL) and freshman Jadeveon Clowney (5 sacks, 7 TFL).

Wilson continues to mature into one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. He has not thrown an interception in any of the past four games, spanning 158 pass attempts. Senior WR Jarius Wright has been the brightest star of a talented receiving corps with 709 receiving yards and 7 TD in seven games this season. Junior Cobi Hamilton has disappeared lately, with just three receptions in the past three games, but he lit up South Carolina last year for 111 yards on seven catches and a touchdown. The Hogs have not been the same powerful rushing attack this season, which is understandable because of the preseason injury to All-American candidate Knile Davis. But RBs Dennis Johnson (6.4 YPC) and Ronnie Wingo Jr. (4.4 YPC) have been serviceable, helping the team rush for 151 YPG in the past three contests.

Defensively, Arkansas has given up chunks of yardage (396 YPG, 71st in nation), but it has allowed only 22.5 PPG. Nobody on the Hogs defense has surpassed two sacks on the year, but senior LB Jerry Franklin has 9.5 TFL. His 68 tackles rank fourth in the SEC and he ran back a fumble 94 yards for a touchdown in last week’s win at Vanderbilt.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Oklahoma State goes for 9-0 start vs. KSU

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-1)
at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (8-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -21, Total: 69

No. 17 Kansas State’s unbeaten season ended last week with a 58-17 defeat to Oklahoma, but No. 3 Oklahoma State still hasn’t lost, tallying seven straight ATS victories during its eight-game winning streak to start the year.

The Cowboys lead the nation in turnover margin (+2.4 per game), rank second among FBS teams in points (49.9 PPG) and place fourth in yards (555 YPG) thanks mostly to QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon. This pair should have little trouble getting open against a Wildcats defense that has surrendered 1,191 passing yards (397 YPG) in the past three games including 520 to Oklahoma last week. OSU won 24-14 last year without Blackmon on the field, but KSU is 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) in the past seven meetings. But this could be the best Cowboys team in school history, and they are absolutely punishing opponents who dare enter Boone Pickens Stadium. They have outscored their four visitors by an average of 31.8 PPG (227 to 100) this year. The pick here is for mighty OKLAHOMA STATE to keep rolling.

This pair of five-star FoxSheets trends show that a hot Cowboys team has been a great play in the past:

OKLAHOMA STATE is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 43.2, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 5*).

OKLAHOMA STATE is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 47.5, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 5*).

And this six-star FoxSheets trend believes the OVER will occur:

OKLAHOMA STATE is 18-1 OVER (94.7%, +16.9 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 42.2, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 6*).

For KSU to keep this one close, it will continue to rely on the legs of QB Collin Klein. The junior has rushed for 229 yards and 12 TD in his past four games. However, he hasn’t done much passing in this time frame, completing just 43-of-69 attempts for 511 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. If OSU jumps out to a big lead, K-State will be hard-pressed to catch up by throwing the football, ranking 113th in the nation in passing offense (131 YPG). Sophomore RB John Hubert has been consistently good all year, with 708 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC. But the Wildcats top receiver, Chris Harper has just 320 yards this season.

Like OSU, K-State has really helped itself out in the turnover game, placing eighth in the nation at +1.1 TO per game. Since turning the ball over five times in the opening game, the Wildcats have just three giveaways in seven contests. DLs Meshak Williams (six sacks) and Jordan Voelker (four sacks) both rank among the top-8 in the conference in this category.

Weeden (22 TD, 7 INT) and Blackmon (74 receptions, 834 yards, 10 TD) continue to be a dynamic duo, but sophomore RB Joseph Randle is a big reason the Cowboys are rolling up the points. The Cowboys have rushed for 724 yards in the past three weeks, as Randle has 358 of those yards and 8 TD. For the season, Randle has 997 total yards, 6.2 YPC and 17 total touchdowns. In last year’s win over K-State, Randle racked up 123 total yards on just 11 touches (seven rushes, four catches). Fellow soph RB Jeremy Smith continues to provide a quick change-of-pace, averaging 7.5 YPC and scoring seven times on just 67 carries.

With the offense scoring so many points, OSU’s defense hasn’t needed to perform to a very high level. The Cowboys currently rank 111th in total defense (456 YPG) and have allowed at least 24 points in seven of eight games this year. Senior lineman Jamie Blatnick has been a disruptive force though, with seven sacks, 9.5 TFL and three QB hurries this season.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 6 Oregon visits Washington Saturday night

OREGON DUCKS (7-1)
at WASHINGTON HUSKIES (6-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -16.5, Total: 73.5

No. 6 Oregon is peaking towards its showdown with fourth-ranked Stanford on Nov. 12, but the Ducks first have to take care of business at Washington on Saturday night.

Oregon star RB LaMichael James (elbow) should be near 100 percent when the Ducks take the field at Husky Stadium in Seattle. After missing two games, James returned last week with 13 carries for 53 yards in a 43-28 win over Washington State. James has 275 rushing yards and 5 TD in two career games against the Huskies, so he will likely be effective even if he’s not at full speed. However, Washington is 4-1 in Pac-12 play after beating Arizona 42-31 last Saturday. RB Chris Polk had 244 total yards and 5 TD in the win. Oregon is 7-0 (SU and ATS) versus Washington since 2004, winning each game by 20+ points. But this Huskies team has a great quarterback in Keith Price (23 TD, 8 INT) that will keep this score respectable, especially considering the Ducks’ shaky defense at times in 2011. Oregon will win, but WASHINGTON will cover the spread.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Huskies:

Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, after the first month of the season. (71-35 over the last 10 seasons.) (67%, +32.5 units. Rating = 2*).

James is certainly the most valuable player on Oregon’s roster with 151 rushing YPG (2nd in nation), but QB Darron Thomas continues to play exceptional football. He ranks seventh in the country in passing efficiency (162.77) with 18 TD and 5 INT this season. He also had a huge game in last year’s 53-16 win over Washington, completing 24-of-33 passes for 243 yards, rushing for 89 yards and scoring three times (two rushes, one pass). Speedy junior RB Kenjon Barner continues to make huge runs, gaining 222 yards and 3 TD on just 21 carries (10.6 YPC) in the past two weeks. But the defense has had its problems, and will likely be without suspended CB Cliff Harris again. Oregon ranks 72nd in yardage (397 YPG), 83rd in pass defense (239 YPG) and has allowed 27+ points in four of its eight games.

Price made his first career start against the Ducks as a freshman last year, and wasn’t horrible. He completed 14-of-28 passes for 127 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. He has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his past seven games in his sophomore season, averaging 270 pass YPG over this stretch. Polk’s huge game last week marked his seventh 100-yard rushing performance this year, and moved him up to fifth in the nation in rushing yardage (127 YPG). Polk has performed pretty well in the past two games against Oregon, gaining 181 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries (5.2 YPC). Although the Huskies were gashed for 446 rushing yards at Stanford two weeks ago, they have allowed only 223 yards combined in their other four Pac-12 games. Washington has also been more opportunistic on the defensive end, forcing four Arizona turnovers last week.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 4 Stanford tries to run win streak to 17

STANFORD CARDINAL (8-0)
at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (2-6)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon State -20.5, Total: 60.5

No. 4 Stanford survived a big scare at USC last week and now the Cardinal bring their gaudy win streak to Corvallis to take on the reeling Oregon State Beavers.

Stanford needed triple overtime to outlast the Trojans 56-48 and extend the longest win streak in the nation to 16 games. QB Andrew Luck (23 TD, 4 INT) threw 3 TD, marking his 11th straight outing with at least two touchdown passes. Oregon State lost 27-8 to Utah last week, rushing for just 32 yards on 26 carries and turning the ball over four times (3 INT for QB Sean Mannion). Luck threw for 305 yards and 4 TD in last year’s 38-0 blanking of the Beavers, but the Cardinal are just 1-4 (SU at ATS) in their past five trips to Corvallis. But this game has all the making of a blowout. Stanford is averaging 45.3 PPG in its four games this year and Oregon State simply doesn’t have the defensive talent to keep Luck and Company in check. A three-touchdown victory will be little problem for STANFORD to achieve on Saturday.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also support the Cardinal:

STANFORD is 10-1 ATS (90.9%, +8.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 42.8, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 3*).

STANFORD is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after outgaining opp. by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 46.8, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 3*).

For his career, Luck has 68 TD and just 16 INT. He currently ranks fifth in the nation in passing efficiency (176.95) and is completing passes at a 72% clip as a senior. Luck has also benefited from a stellar offensive line that has allowed just four sacks the entire season. The O-Line continues to open up holes for the running game too, as Stanford has piled up 215 YPG (19th in nation). Junior Stepfan Taylor has 796 rushing yards and 9 total TD this year, and last season he ran for 115 yards on just 14 carries (8.2 YPC) against Oregon State. The Cardinal have been exposed on the defensive end, especially against the pass (244 YPG, 88th in nation), but they continue to get after the quarterback with 3.1 sacks per game (9th in FBS).

Oregon State has to take better care of the football if it is to have any chance on Saturday. The Beavers have coughed it up 19 times this year, including 13 INT thrown by Mannion. The freshman QB continues to lean on junior WR Markus Wheaton, who has caught at least five passes in every game this season. Wheaton has totaled 702 yards on 57 catches, but has only scored one touchdown. The rushing game has been dreadful, ranking 108th in the nation with 102 YPG. Freshman Malcolm Agnew’s first Pac-12 game was a great one (103 rushing yards at Washington State), but he was limited to 26 yards on nine carries in last week’s loss at Utah. The defense has allowed at least 21 points in all eight games this year, but no team has scored 40 on them. The Beavers must improve their surge on the defensive line, as they have averaged a woeful 4.1 Tackles For Loss this year, which is the seventh-lowest TFL total in the land.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/02/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150

Thursday, November 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Akron - 7:30 PM ET Akron +14 500
Miami (Ohio) - Over 48 500

Florida State - 8:00 PM ET Florida State -14 500
Boston College - Under 45.5 500

Tulsa - 8:00 PM ET Tulsa +1.5 500
Central Florida - Under 49 500

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

November 4, 2011

The LSU-Alabama hype has been on overload this week across television, radio, print and especially in Las Vegas sports books. Despite all the action, Alabama has stayed a 4 ½-point favorite throughout the week with equal action coming in on both sides. Most of the sharp money that wanted LSU took it the week or two prior when books posted Alabama as a 6 ½-point favorite. Bet they wish they could have had the +9 the Golden Nugget posted on the game in June.
“This is about as big as any regular season college football can get,” says Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro. “It’s right up there with all the classic games in history, whether it was Nebraska-Oklahoma or Ohio State-Michigan at the end of the season when those games meant something.”

Vaccaro has seen great two-way action with both small and large money and thinks 4 ½ is right number.

“I don’t think you’ll see the game go below -4 or get up to -6.”

While there is no official record of individual game handle like the Nevada Gaming Control Board does for the Super Bowl, Vaccaro believes this game could reach levels never seen before for a regular season college game.

“The big thing for us, besides it being just a game between No. 1 and No. 2 that everyone has waited all season for, is the timing of the date. We have the Breeders’ Cup going on in the race books with lots of additional cash in town which should boost action significantly on the sports side.“

The only movement from the “Game of the Year” this week has been on the total. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted 43 ½ and it’s been down to 41 as of Friday afternoon. When you got two teams that allow less than 17 points per game between them, it’s hard to reason with the logic of taking the UNDER. But doesn’t it always seem like the hyped games, whether it’s in college or the pros, always seem to take an unexpected turn in regards to game flow expectations?

Beyond the Big Game, we also have quite a few little Big Games this week in college football with lots of BCS implications. From a betting perspective, the one that has received the most attention from sharp money has been Oregon’s visit to Washington on Saturday. Oregon opened as a 14 ½-point favorite and was bet up to -16 ½ on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the other part of the Pac 12 equation into the BCS, Stanford, hasn’t seen any movement for its game at Oregon State. The Cardinal opened up as 21-point favorites and have stayed there with a few books having variations at -20 ½. Is it so unreasonable to think that Stanford could win big again? Even the small money with their parlays are feeling somewhat reluctant betting on Stanford, a team that hasn’t lost a spread for them all season (7-0-1 ATS).

Perhaps it’s the feeling that there is no way Stanford can get back to that high they felt last week in beating USC in triple-overtime. This could be a letdown spot, or maybe a game that Stanford doesn’t take seriously enough with a Nov. 12 date circled on their calendar. Next week Oregon visits Palo Alto for a huge game that could put the winner on a path to play Saturday’s LSU-Alabama winner for the BCS title.

The other team in that whole BCS equation, Oklahoma State, gets to play an over achieving Kansas State squad who just had their bubble burst rudely by Oklahoma last week. What’s K-State’s mind set for this one as they head into Stillwater? The public is all over Oklahoma State and have laid -21 all week long in their parlays, but sharp money is either taking a pass or waiting more value with the underdog here. The line hasn’t moved all week.

Regardless of what Oregon and Stanford do next week, Oklahoma State is still in the driver’s seat and controls its own destiny. Vaccaro posted a line on the big Dec. 3 game in Stillwater with the home team being a 3-point favorite over the Sooners.

There’s no line posted on next week’s Stanford-Oregon game, but Stanford -7 looks to be a good number, maybe -6 ½. In June, The Golden Nugget made Oregon a 1-point road favorite in their GOY lines. The Nugget also made Oklahoma a 2-point road favorite for its big game.

The Sooners take on Texas A&M this week. Oklahoma opened as 14 ½-point favorites last Sunday at the Wynn Resort and most sports books opened the game -13 ½ on Monday morning where it has stayed untouched all week.

Georgia is taking a week off of SEC action and has a tune-up game against New Mexico State. Georgia opened as a 34-point favorite and is now -32 after a few players were suspended, including RB Isaiah Crowell. It’s hard to get the 2-10 season the Aggies had last year out of our minds when we see this big number, but they are a drastically improved this season. New Mexico State’s offense can actually move the ball and score on teams, and they have been covering spreads all season (6-2 ATS).

Air Force and Army hook up in Colorado Springs this week with their 696 yards of combined rushing offense a game. Air Force opened -14 ½ at the Hilton and is currently -17.

The Wynn opened Texas -8 for its game in Austin against Texas Tech and by the time most sports books opened the game on Monday, the line was Texas -12 ½. Since then, the game has jumped to -14.

[StarDust Bum]

LSU at Alabama

November 4, 2011

Since July when I created my first set of Power Rankings for the 2011 college football season, I’ve had Alabama and LSU at No.’s 1 and 2, respectively. Finally, these powerhouse programs will meet on the field Saturday night in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (8-0 straight up, 7-1 against the spread) listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 41. The number for the side has been 4 ½ or five for the most of the week. A few books were all the way down to four Thursday afternoon, but there were no fours to be found by Friday afternoon.

The total opened at 42 at most spots and went as high as 42 ½ at a few shops. However, the number was down to 41 ½ by Thursday and many books adjusted to 41 Friday morning.

LSU (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) has won all eight of its games by at least 13 points, including a 45-10 home win over Auburn as a 21-point favorite on Oct. 22. Senior quarterback Jarrett Lee completed 14-of-20 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Kenny Hilliard rushed for a pair of scores.

Lee has enjoyed a stellar campaign, throwing 12 TD passes compared to only one interception. His favorite target has been junior WR Rueben Randle, who has 33 receptions for 638 yards and seven TDs.

The ground game is the strength of this LSU offense, as the team has three quality backs (Spencer Ware, Michael Ford and Alfred Blue) that have combined to rush for 1,205 yards and 16 TDs. Ware is especially fresh after serving a one-game suspension vs. Auburn that preceded the squad’s open date.

Senior QB Jordan Jefferson, who lost the starting job when he was suspended in August for his role in an off-campus fight, can also contribute to LSU’s rushing attack. Jefferson missed four games but has seen playing time in every game since then.

Les Miles’s team has thrived on the road this year. His veteran team opened the year at Cowboys Stadium in a neutral-site showdown vs. Oregon. The Tigers spanked the Ducks by a 40-27 count in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.

In three true road games, LSU has won at Mississippi State (19-6), at West Virginia (47-21) and at Tennessee (38-7).

Nick Saban’s squad has won every game by 16 points or more, but it hasn’t faced the type of competition that LSU has. With that said, the counter argument to that fact is that the Crimson Tide would’ve most likely enjoyed the same results if it had to navigate the same slate LSU has played.

Alabama’s best wins are at Penn St. (27-11), at Florida (38-10) and vs. Arkansas (38-14). Like LSU, the Tide has had two weeks to prep for this monumental showdown. In its last outing, ‘Bama overcame a 6-6 tie at intermission and scored 31 unanswered points in the second half en route to a 37-6 triumph over Tennessee as a 30-point home ‘chalk.’

The biggest (only?) question mark for Saban’s team coming into the year was inexperience at the QB position. But that situation has turned out just fine, as sophomore signal caller A.J. McCarron has steadily improved each week. McCarron has a 10/3 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

McCarron’s job has been aided by the presence of Heisman Trophy contender Trent Richardson. The junior RB from Pensacola has rushed for 989 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Marquis Maze is the Tide’s leading receiver with 39 catches for 482 yards. Richardson and WR Darius Hanks both have 18 receptions apiece.

Alabama has only been a single-digit favorite once this year, cruising to victory over the Gators at The Swamp as a four-point road ‘chalk.’ This is LSU’s second underdog spot as it was catching 3 ½ points in the aforementioned win over Oregon.

As a road ‘dog during Miles’s seven-year tenure, LSU owns a 4-6 spread record. On Saban’s watch, ‘Bama is 16-13 ATS in 29 games as a home favorite.

When these teams met last season, LSU captured a 24-21 win as a 6 ½-point home underdog. In the last meeting in Tuscaloosa, Alabama overcame a 14-10 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 24-15 decision as a 7 ½-point home favorite.

CBS will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--This is the lowest total both teams have seen this season. The previous low for LSU was 42 ½ against Florida. That game went ‘over’ when the Tigers won a 44-11 decision. The lowest previous total for ‘Bama was 42 in its 27-11 win at PSU that saw the ‘under’ prevail.

--The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between LSU and Alabama.

--The ‘over’ is 4-3-1 overall for LSU this year, going 2-1-1 in its four games played outside of Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

--Totals have been an overall wash (4-4) for Alabama with the ‘under’ cashing at a 3-2 clip in its home games.

--I polled a few media members for their LSU-Bama predictions and got these responses via e-mail and/or twitter.

--Cecil Hurt (Bama beat writer for the Tuscaloosa News since 1982): 16-14, Bama.
--Paul Finebaum (national radio host based out of Birmingham) 21-17, Bama.
--Rachel Baribeau (Fox Sports): 24-21, Bama
--Bo Bounds (Out of Bounds Show in Jackson, MS.): 21-20, LSU.
--Chris David (VegasInsider.com): 27-20, Alabama.

--There’s another huge SEC game Saturday night that hasn’t been getting much attention due to the LSU-Alabama showdown. That would be South Carolina at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are five-point favorites with the total set at 53, as of early Friday afternoon. The Gamecocks are underdogs for the first time this season. During Steve Spurrier’s seven-year tenure, they own a 12-7-1 spread record as road ‘dogs. With the tiebreaker advantage over Georgia based on a 45-42 win in Athens back in Week 2, South Carolina will return to Atlanta if it wins at Arkansas and vs. Florida next week.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas, Texas Tech look to become bowl eligible

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (5-3)
at TEXAS LONGHORNS (5-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -14, Total: 61

Slumping Texas Tech tries to get back on the winning track when it visits Texas on Saturday afternoon.

After last week’s meltdown (41-7 home loss to Iowa State), expect a Texas Tech team that more resembles the Red Raiders squad that won in Norman two weeks ago. The Longhorns gave up 585 passing yards to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the only two top-50 passing offenses they have faced all season, and TTU has averaged 405 passing YPG in its past four trips to Austin. Texas 6-14 ATS in its past 20 home games, and although it is coming off 441 rushing yards against lowly Kansas, Tech is 35-12 ATS (75%) against great rushing teams (200+ rush YPG) since 1992. The Horns will likely escape with a victory, but TEXAS TECH will cover the spread.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also back the Red Raiders:

TEXAS TECH is 19-4 ATS (82.6%, +14.6 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 34.8, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - after a 2-game homestand, in the second half of the season. (59-23 since 1992.) (72%, +33.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas Tech hasn’t won in Austin since 1997, as the Longhorns have 48.0 PPG during six straight home victories against the Red Raiders. TTU was averaging 43.4 PPG and 539 total YPG before being held to seven points and 290 total yards to ISU. QB Seth Doege (441 yards, 4 TD vs. Oklahoma two weeks ago) threw for 171 yards and 2 INT versus the Cyclones. Despite the home setback last week, the Red Raiders have had no trouble scoring points on the road. In three games outside of Lubbock, they have scored 145 points (48.3 PPG) and Doege has thrown for 1,208 yards, 12 TD and just 1 INT. The loss of RB Eric Stephens (knee) has really slowed down the ground game. In three games without Stephens, TTU has rushed for just 338 yards on 3.3 YPC. Tech’s defensive numbers continue to be ugly, ranking 105th in sacks (1.3 per game), 102nd in total defense (436 YPG) and 93rd in scoring defense (32.0 PPG).

Texas ran for 441 yards and 5 TD on 72 carries (6.1 YPC) in a 43-0 win over Kansas last week, and will try to do the same thing to a Red Raiders rush defense allowing 226 YPG (seventh-most in FBS). Freshman Malcolm Brown continues to emerge as the team’s featured back with 254 yards and 4 TD on 47 carries over the past two weeks. The heavy rush attack will keep the pressure off freshman QB David Ash, who played pretty well against the Jayhawks, completing 14-of-18 passes for 145 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Although the Horns pass defense has been mostly strong (192 YPG, 21st in nation), they have to get better pressure on the QB if they are to slow down TTU’s air attack. Texas ranks 90th in the country in sacks (1.6 per game) and has created just four turnovers in the past three games.

[StarDust Bum]

USC at Colorado

November 4, 2011

Southern California is in bounce-back mode Friday night when it travels to Boulder to face a struggling Colorado squad on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had USC (6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) listed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 58. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Buffaloes available to win outright for a 10/1 payout (risks $100 to win $1,000).

Lane Kiffin’s team is coming off a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to Stanford by a 56-48 count. The Trojans failed to hook up their backers as 7 ½-point home underdogs due to the rule that teams have to go for a two-point conversion after scoring touchdowns in the third extra session.

Curtis McNeal rushed 20 times for 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Matt Barkley completed 28-of-45 throws for 283 passing yards and three TDs compared to one interception. But it wasn’t enough for the Trojans, who nearly got into field-goal range at the end of regulation.

However, the officials ruled that the clock expired before USC got out of bounds on the final play. After reviewing the play, the call was upheld.

Both of McNeal’s touchdown runs came early in the third quarter as USC went ahead by a 20-10 score. Stanford responded with 14 unanswered points and the Pac-12 rivals went back and forth from there.

With the game knotted at 27-27 with just over three minutes remaining, USC sophomore cornerback Nickell Robey intercepted an Andrew Luck pass and raced 33 yards to paydirt to give his team a 34-27 advantage.

But Luck would respond, promptly marching the Cardinal down the field on a crucial drive that was capped by Stepfan Taylor’s two-yard touchdown plunge.

Both squads answered the others’ scores in the first two overtimes. Then in triple OT, Taylor’s second rushing score and Luck’s subsequent two-point conversion pass to Coby Fleener gave Stanford a 56-48 lead.

USC would get inside the five on its possession, but McNeal was stripped of the ball by Ben Gardner and A.J. Tarpley recovered the fumble in the end zone to keep the Cardinal unbeaten and in the hunt for a bid to the BCS Championship Game.

Colorado (1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS) has lost six in a row both SU and ATS since winning its only game against Colorado St. (28-14) in Week 3. The Buffs have dropped five of those contests in blowout fashion by 20 points or more.

The defense has been atrocious, giving up an average of 38.3 points per game. Arizona St. put up 48 on CU’s defense last week in a 48-14 win in Tempe. Oregon ripped the Buffs by a 45-2 count in Boulder the previous week.

Senior quarterback Tyler Hansen has 2,029 passing yards with a 14/6 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Hansen’s favorite target is sophomore WR Paul Richardson, who has 30 receptions for 488 yards and five TDs.

CU senior RB Rodney Stewart is the team’s premier playmaker. Stewart has rushed for 473 yards and one TD while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. He also has 28 receptions for 435 yards.

Barkley has enjoyed an outstanding junior campaign at USC. He has a 22/5 TD-INT ratio has thrown for 2,290 yards. Barkley has the benefit of throwing to one of the nation’s premier wideouts in sophomore Robert Woods, who has 81 catches for 991 yards and nine TDs.

USC junior safety T.J. McDonald will sit out the first half Friday due to an illegal hit during last week’s loss to Stanford. The Trojans’ other starting safety, junior Jawanza Starling, is ‘doubtful’ with a knee injury. Junior DE Wes Horton (arm) and RB Marc Tyler (shoulder) are also listed as ‘doubtful’ this week.

On the injury front for CU, RB Rodney Stewart will be back in the lineup after missing last week’s loss at ASU. Three defensive starters have already gone down with season-ending injuries.

The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Buffs, 2-1 in its three home games. As for USC, it has seen four ‘overs’ and four ‘unders’ with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in its three road assignments.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--From 2008-2010, Colorado went 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog on Dan Hawkins’ watch. However, the Buffs are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in three home games since Jon Embree took over as head coach.

--USC is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road games this year. The Trojans are 3-3 ATS in six games as road favorites on Lane Kiffin’s watch.

--With last night's 38-7 win at Boston College, FSU improved to 6-3. But for those e-mailers killing me for not having the Seminoles in the Top 25 of my Power Rankings, I submit to you these facts: FSU hasn't beaten a team with a winning record all year. The combined record of the six teams FSU has beaten is an atrocious 13-36. What's FSU's best win in 2011? That would be a home win over N.C. St.

--Wake Forest owns a 16-8-1 ATS record as a home underdog during Jim Grobe’s 11-year tenure in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have been double-digit home underdogs five times during this span, going 4-1 ATS. They play host to Notre Dame on Saturday night as 14-point puppies.

--Vanderbilt hasn’t won outright in Gainesville since 1945. The Gators have won 20 straight over the Commodores. Most spots have UF listed as a 14-point favorite for Saturday’s 12:20 p.m. Eastern game on the SEC Network.

--Florida went winless in October for the first time since 1979 and it is in the midst of its first four-game losing streak since 1988.

--Since 2008, Northwestern owns a 9-3 spread record as a road underdog. The Wildcats are 17 ½-point ‘dogs Saturday at Nebraska. The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for Pat Fitzgerald’s squad.

--Coach of the Year Candidates:
1-David Shaw (Stanford)
2-Les Miles (LSU)
3-Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State)
4-Chris Petersen (Boise State)
5-Bill Snyder (Kansas State)
6-Mark Dantonio (Michigan State)
7-Brady Hoke (Michigan)
8-James Franklin (Vanderbilt)
9-Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)
10-Kevin Sumlin (Houston)

--Heisman Candidates:
1-Trent Richardson (Alabama)
2-Andrew Luck (Stanford)
3-Kellen Moore (Boise State)
4-Sammy Watkins (Clemson)
5-Case Keenum (Houston)

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/03/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
11/02/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*250


Friday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Kent State -1 500
Kent State - Over 42.5 500

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -21 500
Colorado - Under 58.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
11/03/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
11/02/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 8-*6-*0 57.14% +700

Saturday, November 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET Minnesota +28 500
Michigan State - Over 46.5 500

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -27.5 500
Ohio State - Under 52.5 500

Texas Tech - 12:00 PM ET Texas Tech +14 500
Texas - Over 60.5 500

Louisville - 12:00 PM ET Louisville +12.5 500
West Virginia -

Ball State - 12:00 PM ET Ball State +2.5 500
Eastern Michigan - Over 54 500

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -3.5 500
Iowa

Vanderbilt - 12:21 PM ET Vanderbilt +13.5 500
Florida -

New Mexico State - 12:30 PM ET New Mexico State +34.5 500
Georgia - Over 56.5 500

Kansas - 12:30 PM ET Iowa State -14 500
Iowa State -

Virginia - 12:30 PM ET Maryland +3 500
Maryland - Over 53 500

North Carolina - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina -3.5 500
North Carolina State - Over 55 500

Texas Christian - 2:00 PM ET Wyoming +19.5 500
Wyoming

Duke - 3:00 PM ET Duke +15.5 500
Miami -

Tulane - 3:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -26.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Mississippi -2 500
Kentucky - Over 45 500

Northwestern - 3:30 PM ET Nebraska -17.5 500
Nebraska -

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -13.5 500
Oklahoma -

Stanford - 3:30 PM ET Stanford -20.5 500
Oregon State -

Texas El Paso - 3:30 PM ET Rice +1 500
Rice -

Purdue - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -26 500
Wisconsin -

UL Monroe - 3:30 PM ET UL Lafayette -5.5 500
UL Lafayette -

Army - 3:30 PM ET Army +16 500
Air Force -

Troy - 3:30 PM ET Troy +6.5 500
Navy -

Southern Mississippi - 4:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -8.5 500
East Carolina -

Arkansas State - 4:00 PM ET Arkansas State -16.5 500
Florida Atlantic -

Idaho - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State -8 500
San Jose State -

Florida International - 4:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +3 500
Western Kentucky - Over 49.5 500

Washington State - 6:30 PM ET Washington State +8 500
California - Over 56 500

Evening Games posted Later......GOOD LUCK All !