The Bums CFB Week # 10 Best Bets 11/1-11/5 !

[StarDust Bum]

Pac 12 Notebook

November 1, 2011

Week 9 Rewind

This is getting pretty old. After every game in the Pac 12 was decided by at least two touchdowns two weeks ago, five of the six games this past week were decided by double-digits.

Washington State played pretty impressively against Oregon as it outgained the Ducks 462-454 but special teams were the difference for Oregon. The Ducks first touchdown came on a blocked punt return and then after the Cougars cut the lead to nine points late in the third quarter, Oregon returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown.

Colorado got dismantled again, losing its sixth straight game and fourth straight by at least four touchdowns. The Buffaloes fell behind 24-0 to Arizona State and there was no chance of recovery as they turned the ball over five times which resulted in 177 empty yards. It was the third time in October that Colorado faced an opponent coming off a bye week.

UCLA got back into the win column to get back to .500 on the season. The Bruins spotted California a 7-0 lead before running off 17 straight points and then scoring the game's final two touchdowns to win with ease. The suspensions to the receivers was felt with just 92 passing yards but UCLA rushed for 294 yards on 52 carries (5.7 ypc).

The Utes got back to .500 and picked up their first ever Pac 12 victory as they jumped out to a 24-0 lead and never looked back. Utah only outgained the Beavers 287-263 but took advantage of their miscues. Oregon State had four turnovers, a missed field goal and two turnovers on downs. The Beavers rushed for only 32 yards on 26 carries (1.2 ypc).

Arizona could not follow up its first Pac 12 win of the year with another as it fell at Washington. The Wildcats had the lead for most of the game and outgained the Huskies 388-310 but the fourth quarter miscues did them in. They had a three-point lead early in the period but turned the ball over on their final three possessions

Game of the Year - Part 1

The best was saved for last as Stanford and USC played an instant classic.

The Cardinal outlasted USC in triple overtime 56-48 in a game that was back and forth. Stanford scored with just under a minute remaining in regulation to send the game into overtime. In the third overtime, the Cardinal scored on their possession while getting the two-point conversion and USC fumbled into the endzone to end the game.

Because the game went into three overtimes, Stanford backers were able to hold out hope and get a possible cover with their -7.5 line because two-point attempts are mandatory at that point.

As luck would have it, no pun intended, Stanford covered its eighth consecutive game to open the season.

Could that run come to an end? Stanford has failed to cover the following game after USC in each of the last four years, three resulting in outright losses, and with Oregon on deck in two weeks, it finds itself in a tough sandwich spot.

The Cardinal are 20.5-point favorites at Oregon State.

Quarterback Controversy?

We are not taking about Washington State or California (although one should be brewing in Berkley following Zach Maynard's horrible performance against UCLA). Believe it or not, it is at Oregon.

Ducks quarterback Darron Thomas returned to the lineup against Washington State, going 8-of-13 for 153 yards and a touchdown but also two picks. He was pulled at halftime and redshirt freshman Bryan Bennett led the Ducks to three touchdown drives, going 4-7 for 88 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon head coach Chip Kelly has not indicated who will start at Washington, stating that, "We base everything on how we practice."

Thomas will likely get the nod as rumors were swirling that he was pulled as to not aggravate his leg injury. Either way, Kelly said that there is no plan for a two-quarterback rotation.

Oregon is a two-touchdown chalk at Washington.

Game of the Week

It may not be the best game on paper but Arizona State travels to UCLA for a key Pac 12 South matchup.

A win by Arizona State pretty much locks up the division but if the Bruins can get the win, they control their own destiny going forward. UCLA has winnable games against Utah and Colorado following this week and then its season finale against rival USC, which cannot go to the Pac 12 Championship.

This very well could be the make or break game for the future of Rick Neuheisel but hasn't this been the case almost every week?

The Bruins are 10-point home underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

Temple travels to Ohio Wednesday night

TEMPLE OWLS (5-3)
at OHIO BOBCATS (5-3)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Temple -3.5, Total: 47

The Temple Owls bring the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense into Athens, Ohio to take on the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night.

These two MAC rivals are well-rested following their bye weeks. Despite Temple’s 13-10 loss at Bowling Green in its last game, the Owls have been a stellar road team, winning at Akron, Maryland and Ball State by a combined score of 121 to 10. Alabama is the only FBS team that has allowed fewer points than Temple (10.0 PPG) this season on defense. The Owls have given up more than 14 points just once all year (36 to Toledo), which includes a near-upset of Penn State, when they fell 14-10. Ohio has not played a difficult schedule, but is just 1-4 ATS (2-3 SU) in its past five games. Although the Bobcats have won three of four meetings in this series, the pick here is TEMPLE to run wild on Ohio with its strong ground game.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bobcats:

TEMPLE is 17-6 ATS (73.9%, +10.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. The average score was TEMPLE 20.1, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 1*).

The Owls have played all eight of their games Under the Total, and the FoxSheets show a four-start trend expecting the UNDER to occur again on Wednesday.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (OHIO U) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. (73-28 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +42.2 units. Rating = 4*).

Temple ranks ninth in FBS in rushing offense (252 YPG) led by junior Bernard Pierce (951 rushing yards, 18 TD). Although he has been bothered by a hamstring injury, he’s still expected to play against Ohio for the first time in his career. Pierce is averaging 5.3 YPC and has rushed for 100+ yards in six of eight games this season. If Pierce can’t go, Matt Brown proved himself capable of handing the workload with 119 yards on 22 carries against Bowling Green. The Owls don’t throw the football very much, averaging a mere 16.6 pass attempts per game. Senior QB Chester Stewart is 47-for-74 for 643 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT this season, and his offense has gone three straight games without turning the ball over. On defense, Temple ranks fifth in the nation with 263 YPG allowed. The Owls place among the top-10 FBS schools in both pass defense (173 YPG, 9th) and against the run (91 YPG, 10th).

In last year’s meeting, the 10-point underdog Bobcats won 31-23 in Philadelphia. But it’s a new cast of characters this year in Ohio, led by QB Tyler Tettleton, who has 17 TD and 5 INT in his sophomore season. Tettleton has thrown at least 2 TD in seven of his eight games this year. Senior RB Donte Harden continues to improve, rushing for 297 yards with 2 total TD in the past three games. Ohio’s defense has also been pretty strong this season, ranking 18th in the nation in yardage (321 YPG) and 24th in points (20.4 PPG). The Bobcats had a run of four straight games forcing 2+ TO, but have only one takeaway in the past three weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

LSU-BAMA AND HISTORY OF NUMBER 1 VS. NUMBER 2


Throughout our 55 seasons of publishing THE GOLD SHEET, many of our most-memorable college football games have been the infrequent No. 1 vs. No. 2 regular-season battles. Of course, the rather recent introduction of 1 vs. 2 matchups in Bowl Alliance or BCS title games has changed the overall impact of such high-profile regular-season clashes, but we can't help but get excited whenever such a contest materializes. Which is why we are looking forward to this weekend's LSU at Alabama titanic in Tuscaloosa, which has the earmarks of the sort of classic duel that could rank among the best in memory. For a detailed preview on this week's Tigers vs. Crimson Tide showdown, please consult our College Forecast.

With LSU and Bama the main topic this week, we thought it might be fun to look back on some of the best past 1 vs. 2 matchups from the regular season since TGS began to publish in 1957. Not all 1 vs. 2 battles from the past are the same; in many cases, such rumbles featured teams that were not in the eventual national title picture. Others were arguably not matchups of the two best teams from that year. Nonetheless, we've compiled a list of what we believe are the most memorable, and best, 1 vs. 2 regular-season showdowns over the past 55 seasons. We'll have to wait until next week to see where LSU-Bama, circa 2011, fits into the list.

A quick note. Some memorable regular-season showdowns from the past have been omitted from our list because they were not actually 1 vs. 2 battles. Thus, LSU's 7-3 win over Ole Miss on Halloween night, 1959, when Billy Cannon uncorked his memorable 89-yard punt return TD, is excluded since the Tigers were ranked first and the Rebs third that week. As well as the 1967 UCLA-USC classic, when O.J. Simpson's late 64-yard TD run gave the Trojans a 21-20 win over Gary Beban's Bruins; SC had actually dropped to fourth in the polls the previous week after losing at Oregon State.

Let the debate begin...

1-Notre Dame (1) at Michigan State (2), November 19, 1966...The fact this classic ended with no resolution (a 10-10 draw) has helped contribute to its enduring legacy. Unique in that neither of these powerhouses were bowl-bound in '66, with Notre Dame still in its dark ages of eschewing bowl games (a policy it would finally end three years later) and Michigan State barred from the postseason by the Big Ten's "no-repeat" rule of the day.

Anticipation began to build for this one early in the season, and the hype only accelerated as the campaign progressed. A media firestorm preceded the kickoff as draconian TV rules of the era threatened to black out much of the nation from the showdown, although a compromise was reached with ABC wherein much of the country would view the game on a 15-minute-delay basis, circumventing the "live" telecast rules.

The battle was tense throughout, with Notre Dame forced to play from behind with backup QB Coley O'Brien relieving starter Terry Hanratty, who exited early with a shoulder injury. O'Brien nonetheless rallied the Irish back to a 10-10 tie. Notre Dame had a chance to win the game late, but Joe Azzaro's 41-yard FG attempt sailed wide with 4:39 to play. Controversy erupted afterward when Irish HC Ara Parseghian opted to play it safe in the final moments, but we have always believed critics judged Parseghian too harshly, as putting the ball in the air from his own territory at that stage of the game with a shaky O'Brien was especially risky, and Ara did gamble on a 4th-down run to keep possession in the final drive. Only on the last play of the game did Parseghian play it extra careful, but Ara knew he had one more chance to impress the pollsters the next week in a season-ender at Southern Cal. Which the Irish won 51-0 to help solidify a final number one ranking.

2-Nebraska (1) at Oklahoma (2), November 25, 1971...Anticipation for this Thanksgiving classic forty years ago began to build in early October when the Sooners quickly ascended to the number two spot in the polls behind defending national champ Nebraska. OU, which had adopted the wishbone offense late the previous season, served notice in an early October 48-27 wipeout of former wishbone master Texas at the Cotton Bowl, a game in which the Sooners rushed for 435 yards, 214 of those by electric HB Greg Pruitt.

In those days, without a Big 8 commitment to any postseason event, bowl games would make their bets before the regular season would conclude. In 1971, the Orange thus invited Nebraska and the Sugar went with Oklahoma. Later that Thanksgiving weekend, Alabama (Orange-bound) and Auburn (Sugar-bound), featuring Heisman winner QB Pat Sullivan, met in an unbeaten SEC showdown at Birmingham.

Both the Huskers and Sooners trampled all opposition in the run-up to the Turkey Day classic, which didn't disappoint. The affair went back-and-forth, with several highlight-reel plays, including an amazing 72-yard punt return TD by Nebraska's Johnny Rodgers, effectively sealing the next year's Heisman Trophy in the process. OU, down 28-17 and having trouble springing Pruitt and backfield mate Joe Wylie, still had QB Jack Mildren, who almost single-handedly rallied the Sooners back to a 31-28 lead in the 4th Q before the Huskers uncorked a bone-crushing TD drive engineered by QB Jerry Tagge and capped by a short Jeff Kinney TD dive. The 35-31 Nebraska win preceded a less-dramatic 1 vs. 2 clash in the Orange Bowl vs. Bama, one in which Nebraska dominated, 38-6.

3-Texas (1) at Arkansas (2), December 6, 1969...This was looming as a Cotton Bowl decider all year in '69, but suddenly took on national-title implications when top-ranked Ohio State lost in late November at Michigan. So important became Texas-Arkansas that President Nixon even decided he had to attend the game, prompting anti-Vietnam war protestors to make the trek to Fayetteville. ABC reaped the benefits, having re-scheduled this one in the offseason as an end-of-the-season TV special.

Host Arkansas seemed in command most of the way, jumping to a 14-0 lead that stood until the 4th Q before Texas QB James Street turned into a magician. His 42-yard TD scamper and subsequent 2-point PAT run cut the deficit to 14-8 early in the 4th Q. With less than 5 minutes left and faced with a 4th-and-2 from their own 43, Horns HC Darrell Royal gambled on a deep Street pass, which TE Randy Peschel miraculously gathered in traffic for a 44-yard gain. RB Jim Bertelsen scored a TD shortly thereafter, and PK Happy Feller's PAT made it 15-14 Longhorns, although they needed to intercept a pass by Razorback QB Bill Montgomery in Texas territory to finally seal the win.

Others: 2006-(1) Ohio State 42 - (2) Michigan 39...Another showdown anticipated for almost the entire autumn, but not quite as compelling as the scoreline indicated. Both subsequently lost in bowl games. 1985- (1) Iowa 12 - (2) Michigan 10...Classic defensive duel won by Hawkeye PK Rob Haughtlin's last-second 29-yard FG. Neither ended up in national title discussion, which was eventually decided by Oklahoma's Orange Bowl win over Penn State. 1993-(2) Notre Dame 31 - (1) Florida State 24...Rousing affair in South Bend eventually diminished by the Irish losing to Boston College the next week and wrecking their chances to win the national title. 1991-(2) Miami-Fla. 17 - (1) Florida State 16...One of a succession of high-stakes Canes-Seminoles games of the era, most of which were won by Miami. Not a particularly memorable game, save for FSU PK Gerry Thomas pushing a last-minute 34-yard FG just wide right. 1963-Texas (2) 28 - (1) Oklahoma 7...Horns served notice that they were on their way to national title when holding OU to only 8 first downs at Cotton Bowl. 1986-(2) Miami-Fla. 28 - (1) Oklahoma 16...The first of an entertaining set of mid '80s battles between the Sooners and Canes. Miami and Jimmy Johnson got the best of OU's Barry Switzer both this night and in the next season's Orange Bowl to win the '87 national crown. 1988-(1) Notre Dame 27 - (2) Southern Cal 10...The highlight game of the Irish national title year, this victory came despite Lou Holtz suspending key weapons TB Tony Brooks & WR Rickey Watters. 1981-(1) Southern Cal 28 - (2) Oklahoma 24...Neither one was in the top ten by the end of the season, but this late-September showdown was a thriller, won for SC with a 7-yard John Mazur-to-Fred Cornwall TD pass with 2 seconds to play. 1987-(2) Oklahoma 17 - (1) Nebraska 7...Hardly as captivating as the '71 showdown at Norman, with the Sooners winning this defensive showdown in Lincoln before losing in the Orange Bowl vs. Miami. 1996-(2) Florida State 24 - (1) Florida 21...This one was mostly forgotten a month later when the Gators won the Bowl Alliance rematch for the national title at the Sugar Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Akron at MIAMI-OHIO (Thursday)...M-O QB Zac Dysert eager for this rematch after missing LY's game due to a lacerated spleen. Backup Austin Boucher filled in admirably, completing 22 of 32 for 213 yds. in 19-14 road victory.

Florida State at BOSTON COLLEGE (Thursday)...Visitor has covered 4 of past 5 in series. FSU managed to overcome 4 TOs (one int. returned for BC TD) in 24-19 home win LY. BC's currently sidelined RB Montel Harris accounted for 191 of 266 yds. in loss.

Army at AIR FORCE...AF has taken no prisoners vs. Army, winning 13 of last 14 (12-2 vs. spread). Falcons maintain possession of Commander-in-Chief's Trophy with victory here.

Lsu at ALABAMA...Tide mentor Nick Saban (LSU HC 2000-04) had won and covered 2 straight vs. his former employer prior to LY's 24-21 upset loss in Baton Rouge. Proud, nation-leading Tide "D" out for redemption after allowing season-high 433 yds. vs. Tigers in 2010.

Syracuse at CONNECTICUT...UConn has won and covered 4 straight in this Big East series. Highly-emotional game for UConn's 1st-year HC Paul Pasqualoni, who was Orange head man for 14 seasons (1991-2004; 9 bowl appearances) before serving as NFL asst. past 7 years.

Southern Miss at EAST CAROLINA...USM fired-up to avoid being first-ever Golden Eagle team to drop 3 straight in series. USM has covered 8 of past 10 in series. Golden Eagles committed season-high 15 infractions for 153 yds. in bitter 44-43 loss in Hattiesburg LY.

Ball State at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU QB Alex Gillett was razor-sharp (pun intended) in LY's 35-28 upset in Muncie (Eagles snapped 18-game losing streak), accounting for 414 yds. (189 YR). Four of last 5 in series have gone "over."

Vanderbilt at FLORIDA...Vandy has dropped 5 straight vs. spread on SEC trail (0-2 TY). In 55-14 thumping by UF in Nashville LY, Gators emptied bench following intermission after exploding to 41-0 advantage at H. Gators' speedy RB Jeff Demps missed game with foot injury.

New Mexico State at GEORGIA...NMS is 6-1 as DD road dog last 7 on board. Late-season "sandwich spot" for UGA, as this non-conference tilt comes between revenge games vs. Florida and Auburn.

Utah State at HAWAII...Utah State is 9-1 as 7-pt.-or-more road dog since 2009 (2-0 TY). Favorable scheduling dynamics for refreshed Aggies (off bye week), while UH returning from road game in Moscow (Idaho, that is).

Michigan at IOWA...UM's first-year HC Brady Hoke emphasizing an error-free effort after Wolverines have committed 8 TOs (4 in each game) in dropping 2 straight vs. Iowa. UM QB Denard Robinson was injured in 3rd Q of LY's 38-28 defeat at "The Big House." Robinson had completed 13 of 18 with 105 YR in 18 totes.

Virginia at MARYLAND...UVA had covered 4 straight in series (including back-to-back SU wins at College Park) until distorted 42-23 Charlottesville setback LY. Cavs led 23-21 in 4th Q before Maryland exploded for 21 pts., aided by a couple "picks."

Duke at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Duke has covered 4 of last 5 in series. In LY's spread-covering 28-13 home loss (Devils were 18-pt. dog), Duke QB Sean Renfree threw 5 ints., one of which was returned 22 yds. for Miami TD. Homecoming for Devils' high-quality WR tandem of Conner Vernon & Donovan Varner (both Miami natives).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50

Wednesday, November 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Temple - 8:00 PM ET Temple -3.5 500

Ohio - Under 46.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

LSU at Alabama -5 ---> -4.5

Right now most shops are sending out Alabama -4.5 and Fuhrman isn’t so sure the action is moving the right way.

“Public, public, public,” Fuhrman says. “For whatever reason the betting public believes they're pulling a quick one on the books grabbing LSU with the points and I'm not sure I see it quite the same way.

"Nick Saban off a bye playing at home with the best player on the field in Heisman hopeful Trent Richardson seems an awfully intriguing public fade in my opinion.”

*Also, if you haven't already noticed, we're following this game's line moves all week with this story. Check back for the latest as the kickoff nears.

Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 ---> -14

Texas Tech is 3-3 against the spread in its last six and is just coming off an embarrassing outright loss at home to Iowa State as fat 15.5-point favorites. Can you blame early bettors for jumping on the Longhorns?

"If anyone out there has figured out Texas Tech please let me know," Fuhrman says. "This team needed late heroics to squeak by Nevada early in the year yet somehow goes into Norman and smacks the Sooners. Last week's loss is still a head scratcher since we figured they'd be flat against Iowa State, but losing 41-7 at home had a major wow factor. Texas is Texas and while I'm still not buying the Horns as a consistent double-digit chalk in conference, the bettors are telling us otherwise."

Vanderbilt at Florida -11 ---> -13.5

Vanderbilt has dropped two of its last three, but has also managed to cover the number in three straight. Still, bettors don't seem convinced the Commodores can hang with a battle-tested Florida club.

"The Gators have run through an SEC gauntlet lately, playing the conference's best teams in succession, Fuhrman says. John Brantley appears to be healthier than he's been and Vandy probably was overvalued by bookmakers on the opener based on their recent home results.

"I'll be impressed if the Commodores answer the bell in the Swamp Saturday after the heartbreaking loss to Arkansas one week ago."


NFL

Seattle at Dallas -13 ---> -11.5

This was supposed to be "the year" for the Cowboys, right? So far, they've been nothing but a headache for bettors, going just 2-4 against the number over their last six. The real issue here is Seattle is just as inconsistent at 3-3-1 against the number.

"I'm not sure what I'd call the Cowboys effort Sunday night but it sure wasn't one that makes you believe they're legitimate NFC contenders," Fuhrman says about Dallas' 34-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia. "Seattle has shown nothing to the betting public over the last few weeks. However, in this instance the double-digit points seem attractive given Dallas' sluggish effort in Week 8."

Miami at Kansas City -5 ---> -4

For all you bettors that left the Chiefs for dead when Jamaal Charles went down, take notice. Kansas City has covered the number in five straight games and better than 71 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were siding with the Chiefs as of Wednesday evening.

"Congrats to the K.C. Chiefs for making the AFC west a three horse race," Fuhrman says. "I'll be even more impressed if they go out and handle business against an NFL doormat in Miami following two huge wins over their division rivals. Situational handicappers will back Miami here and you see that in the move, while the betting public will be late arrivals on the K.C. bandwagon eager to lay points with a pedestrian offense."

Denver at Oakland -7 ---> -8.5

Well, Tebowmania sure was fun while it lasted. While the Denver quarterback has turned from Broncos savior to whipping boy, this week's line has followed suit.

"Tebow factor in reverse is what we're seeing here," Fuhrman says. "The luster has apparently worn off Denver and bettors are eager to oppose the Broncos' offense with a Carson Palmer led Raider team that will most likely be without the services of Darren McFadden. If the Raiders are serious about winning their division, they should be eager to beat up on the Broncos but do they have the firepower to do so?"

[StarDust Bum]

College Notebook

November 1, 2011


Air Force...QB Tim Jefferson was KO'd with a concussion in first half of 42-0 win at New Mexico on Saturday. Backup Connor Dietz was more than adequate in relief, rushing for 87 yards and a TD in romp past Lobos.

Arizona State...Top rusher Cameron Marshall returned from ankle injury to rush for 114 yards and 3 TDs in Sun Devils' 48-14 romp past Colorado.

Arizona...DBs Shaquille Richardson and Jourdon Grandon missed last week's game at Washington due to suspensions related to on-field brawl vs. UCLA on Oct. 20. Richardson will be available for this week's game vs. Utah while Grandon's status sill to be determined.

Army...QB Trent Steelman, who had started 32 straight games, missed last Saturday's snowy win over the Fordham Rams with a leg injury. Status 'questionable' for Air Force showdown this week. Army used backups Max Jenkins and Angel Santiago effectively in Steelman's absence, but passed only 2 times in the snow in 55-0 win.

Auburn...Leading WR Emory Blake returned to action from ankle injury last Saturday vs. Ole Miss, catching 5 passes for 71 yards and a TD in 41-23 Tiger win.

Bowling Green...Leading rusher Ashton Samuel (681 YR & 5.8 ypc) was held out of last week's game at Kent State due to post-concussive symptoms. With soph RB Jordan Hopgood also banged up, frosh Jamael Martin & soph Erique Geiger got most of the ball-carrying work vs. Golden Flashes, but combined for only 67 yards on 22 carries in Falcons' 27-15 loss.

Clemson...Leading rusher Andre Ellington was a no-go last Saturday at Georgia Tech due to an ankle injury. Backups D.J. Howard and Mike Bellamy each lost a fumble in Tigers' 31-17 loss.

Colorado...QB Tyler Hansen, KO'd with a concussion in previous game vs. Oregon, was on bench at start of last week's game at Arizona State in favor of RS frosh Nick Hirschman, but Hansen returned to lineup after Buffs couldn't move in early going of eventual 48-14 loss. CU, which listed 18 players on injury list last week, were minus top rusher Rodney Stewart (knee, expected out 2-4 more weeks) and again minus top WR Paul Richardson (knee) last week at Tempe.

Colorado State...SS Ivory Herd has been suspended from team.

East Carolina...Leading rusher Reggie Bullock (411 YR) missed last Saturday vs. Tulane with a leg injury, but it didn't hurt Pirates too much in 34-13 win.

Florida...QB John Brantley and RB Jeff Demps both returned from recent ankle injuries in last week's 24-20 loss vs. Georgia at Jacksonville.

Georgia...RB Richard Samuel, Dawgs' second-leading rusher, limped off field at end of last Saturday's 24-20 win over Florida after securing Georgia win with a late first-down run. Ankle injury will keep him out for the rest of the season. Also, leading WR Malcolm Mitchell missed the Gator affair with a hamstring injury. On Tuesday, HC Mark Richt suspended starting RB Isaiah Crowell and backup RBs Ken Malcome and Carlton Thomas, all for this week's game vs. New Mexico State. All are likely to be reinstated for Nov. 12 Auburn game.

Houston...RB Bryce Beall was held out of last Thursday's 73-34 win over Rice, although RBs Charles Sims and Michael Hayes have been getting most of the carries lately for Houston.

Idaho...QB Brian Reader was benched at the outset in favor of backup Taylor Davis last week vs. Hawaii. But Davis was ineffective, completing only 6 of 17 passes for 33 yards and was pulled in favor of Reader in 4th Q of Idaho's 16-14 loss vs. Warriors. Indiana...Lanky 6-5 WR Damarlo Belcher, with 139 catches the past two seasons and 25 in 2011, was suspended for last week's home game vs. Northwestern. True frosh Tre Roberson has assumed Hoosier QB duties and made second straight start last week against Wildcats.

Iowa...WR Keenan Davis (30 catches TY) was sidelined last week at Minnesota due to an ankle injury.

Kentucky...QB Morgan Newton was KO'd with an ankle injury in the first Q of last Saturday's 28-16 home loss to Mississippi State. True frosh Maxwell Smith, who had seen action in recent Cat games, completed 26 of 33 passes for 174 yards in relief vs. the Maroon.

La Tech...True frosh QB Nick Isham, who had been pulled the previous week at Utah State, has also been suffering from shoulder problems and sat out last Saturday's home game vs. San Jose State. Bulldogs lose nothing with former starting QB Colby Cameron, who passed for 237 yards with 2 TDs and no picks in 38-28 win over Spartans. Cameron had paced late rally to win at Logan the previous week.

LSU...RB Spencer Ware and DBs Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon are expected to be available for Saturday's showdown at Alabama after missing previous game vs. Auburn due to suspension.

Miami-Florida...QB Jacory Harris injured his shoulder very late in last Thursday's 28-21 loss to Virginia, with backup Stephen Morris on the field at the end of the game for Hurricanes. RB Lamar Miller also injured a shoulder last week vs. the Cavs, though both he and Harris should be available for this week's game vs. Duke.

Navy...QB Kriss Proctor missed last week's game at Notre Dame with an elbow injury. Backup Trey Miller, not as dynamic a runner as Proctor but regarded as a slightly better passer, went all of the way for Mids in 56-14 loss at South Bend.

North Texas...Starting QB Derek Thompson was KO'd by a concussion early in last Saturday's 37-14 loss at Arkansas State, with backup Andrew McNulty (14 of 26 for136 yards, 1 TDP & 1 pick) going the rest of the way at QB for the Mean Green.

Oklahoma...RB Dominique Whaley, Sooners' top rusher with 590 yards, broke his ankle in the first series of the game at Kansas State last Saturday and is out for the rest of the season. His absence did not hurt OU too much in 58-17 win at Manhattan, however, as OU gained 690 yards (thanks largely to school-record 505 YP by QB Landry Jones) in wipeout win.

Oklahoma State...WR Hubert Anyium, Cowboys' third leading receiver with 27 catches, is out for the season with a foot injury. But deep OSU has plenty of quality targets for QB Brandon Weeden, who was on the money again in last Saturday's 59-24 win over Baylor.

Oregon...Troubled DB Cliff Harris has been suspended again by HC Chip Kelly. Harris, a preseason All-American pick by many, has not made much of a contribution this season after his early suspension. QB Darron Thomas returned to lineup last week vs. WSU after recent knee injury, but was ineffective and pulled by Kelly in favor of RS frosh Bryan Bennett in first half of eventual 43-28 Ducks win. Star RB LaMichael James, out the past two games with a dislocated elbow, also returned to action vs. Cougars and gained 53 YR.

Oregon State...Beavers are thinned defensively with several injuries, including thick DT Castro Masaniai, out for the season with a broken leg. MLB Feti Unga also dealing with a calf injury.

Pittsburgh...Leading rusher Ray Graham is out for the season with a knee injury suffered last Wednesday vs. UConn.

Southern Cal...RB Dillon Baxter, SC's highest-rated recruit last year, has left the program. Baxter had been getting limited carries this season, with the emergence of jr. Curtis McNeal further limiting Baxter's contributions.

Tennessee...Vols opted to start true frosh QB Justin Worley last week vs. South Carolina after Matt Simms, who had been relieving injured starter Tyler Bray, was mostly ineffective vs. LSU and Alabama. Worley was not much better vs. Gamecocks, completing just 10 of 26 passes for 105 yards and 2 picks, and was pulled in 2nd half in favor of Simms in eventual 14-3 loss, Vols' fourth straight setback. UT has scored 28 points combined in its last four games.

UAB...QB Bryan Ellis has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a broken hand. Jonathan Perry, who has started several games in Ellis' absence, is now the full-time starter.

UCLA...Bruins were down to just two scholarship WRs for last Saturday vs. Cal after suspensions benched four of them (Taylor Embree, Randall Carroll, Shaq Evans, and Ricky Marvray) in wake of recent brawl at Arizona. UCLA proved resilient last week vs. Golden Bears, however, in 31-14 win. Leading WR Nelson Rosario wasn;t among the suspended, however, and caught 5 passes in win over Cal.

Wake Forest...Leading rusher Josh Harris returned to action from hamstring injury last week vs. North Carolina, but got only limited work 93 carries for 9 YR) in Deacs' 49-24 loss.

Washington State...QB Jeff Tuel is back on the shelf after reinjuring his collarbone in Oct. 22 loss vs. Oregon State. Marshall Lobbestael, who relieved Tuel in opener vs. Idaho State and started the next four games, was back in the starting lineup last week at Oregon. Cougares lose little with Lobbestael in lineup, and Tuel might have blown chance at redshirt year when returning to lineup in mid-October vs. Stanford.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 10

November 1, 2011


Thursday, Nov. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AKRON at MIAMI-OHIO...Zips have covered last three in series. RedHawks just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as Yager Stadium chalk. Akron, based on series and team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE...BC has covered last three years in series. Spaziani, however, no covers last 4 or 9 of last 10 at home vs. FBS foes. Eagles also just 5-6 last 11 in once-profitable dog role. Slight to FSU, based on recent BC home woes.

TULSA at UCF...UCF 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.




Friday, Nov. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at KENT STATE...Dan Enos 1-8 vs. line for CMU TY, 1-9 last 10 since late 2010 and 3-14 last 17 vs. spread since mid 2010. Chips 1-7 last 8 vs. number on road as well, and if favored note Enos 1-5 as chalk since LY. Kent, based on CMU woes.

SOUTHERN CAL at COLORADO...Lane Kiffin 6-2 vs. line last 8 away. Buffs only 2-7 vs. number for Embree and 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board since early 2010. SC, based on team trends.




Saturday, Nov. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at WEST VIRGINIA...UL continues to overachieve vs. line on road for Charlie Strong, now 8-1 vs. line away from Papa John's since LY. Cards have covered last two trips to Morgantown, too. UL, based on recent road mark.

BALL STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU has covered last three meetings but Ball 12-5 vs. line away since '09 and has covered 6 of last 7 on MAC trail. EMU could be rare chalk here, 0-2 in role TY, 0-4 since '07. Eagles no covers as chalk since late 2005 at Buffalo. Ball, especially if dog, based on team trends.

OLE MISS at KENTUCKY...UK just 4-13 vs. line last 17 as SEC host. Joker just 3-10 vs. number last 13 on board since mid 2010. Ole Miss, based on UK negatives.

NEW MEXICO STATE at GEORGIA...DeWayne Walker has covered first four on road TY and is 12-5 vs. spread as visitor since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Richt only 15-22 vs. spread between the hedges since late 2004. NMSU, based on DeWayne Walker road mark.

SOUTH FLORIDA at RUTGERS...Skip fading, 0-4 last four on board TY. If Skip a dog note 5-3 dog mark at USF (1-0 TY) and 28-12 mark as short since 2005 at ECU. Rutgers, however, has covered four straight in series. Slight to USF, if dog, based on Skip dog marks.

VIRGINIA at MARYLAND...Cavs have covered 4 of last 5 in series but failed vs. number against Terps LY. Edsall only 1-6 vs. line last seven TY. Virginia, based on extended team and series trends.

SYRACUSE at UCONN...Pasqualoni game. UConn has covered last four in series. Huskies 26-12 vs. line at Rentsch since '05. UConn, based on series and team trends.

DUKE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Duke has covered 4 of last 5 in series, including the last two. Canes just 12-24 last 36 as home chalk. Duke 5-1-1 vs. line away since LY and 17-7-1 in role since 2007. Duke, based on team and series trends.

MINNESOTA at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has failed to cover the last two years vs. Minnesota and four straight vs. Gophers dating to 2005. Gophers have failed to cover last two on road after 6-1 spread mark previous seven as visitor. Slight to Minnesota, based on series trends.

PURDUE at WISCONSIN...Bielema heartbreaks last two but he's still 12-3 last 15 on board. Badgers have also covered last five and seven of last eight at home vs. Big Ten foes. Badgers have also won and covered five straight vs. Purdue, the last three by 21 or more. Wisconsin, based on series and extended team trends.

INDIANA at OHIO STATE...Hoosiers 2-7 vs. line last nine away from Bloomington (1-3 TY). IU also no covers last six vs. Ohio State, although Buckeyes not quite the same TY after 14-2 home spread mark the last 16 of the Tressel era. Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA...Commodores have actually covered 3 of last 4 at Gainesville. Although Vandy no covers last five on SEC road (0-2 TY) after 15-5 mark previous 20 in role. Gators no covers last 4 TY and only 2-4 vs. line at home vs. SEC foes post-Tebow. Vandy, based on extended team and series trends.

KANSAS at IOWA STATE...Turner Gill just 2-6 vs. line on road since arriving at KU LY. Note also that the fading Jayhawks have covered just one of their last six this season. Paul Rhoads 6-4 as chalk at ISU. ISU, based on KU negatives.

NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA...First meeting since 2000 Alamo Bowl, won by Frank Solich in 66-17 romp. Cats 7-14 vs. line since 2010. Fitzgerald only 3-7 vs. line last 10 as visitor and only 2-3 in once-profitable visiting dog role since LY. NU was 18-8 as dog between 2006-09. Bo Pelini, however, is just 3-8 vs. line last 11 as host. Northwestern, based on extended trends.

TCU at WYOMING...TCU 5-0-1 vs. line against Wyoming since joining Mountain West in 2005. Frogs just 1-4 laying DD in 2011, however. Wyo only 4-8 last 12 vs. line at Laramie and 2-6 last 8 as DD home dog. TCU, based on series trends.

TULANE at SMU...Wave is crashing lately, 1-5 vs. line last six TY, 11-29-1 last 41 on board. Interestingly, the road team has covered the last five in series, with Wave covering last three at Dallas. SMU, based on recent trends.

ARMY at AIR FORCE...Army no covers last five or 8 of last 9 in series. West Point also no covers first four on road TY. Air Force, based on series trends.

MICHIGAN at IOWA...Kirk Ferentz 12-5 as dog since 2007, although just 1-2 in role since LY. Brady Hoke 1-1 vs. points away TY and Wolves just 4-12 vs. line away since 2008 (mostly due to Rich-Rod). Slight to Iowa, if dog, based on extended trends.

TEXAS TECH at TEXAS...Mack Brown just 4-12 vs. line last 16 as host (1-2 TY) and no covers last five as Big XII host. Tuberville now 7-2 vs. line last 9 reg.-season games and has covered both tries as dog TY, though just 3-3 as short at Tech. Texas Tech, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at OKLAHOMA...Stoops in revenge mode but he failed to cover in that role earlier TY vs. Mizzou and just 4-3 last 7 in role. OU had won and covered big in '08-09 vs. A&M and hit 60+ in Stoops 19-10 vs. line at home since '07 but only 2-2 TY. Aggies no covers last four away from College Station. Slight to OU, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS...Spurrier 0-4-1 last five vs. line against Arkansas and SC only 1-8-1 against spread last 10 in series. Spurrier just 7-8 vs. line as dog away from home since '07. Razorbacks 8-1 against points last nine as host. Arkansas, based on team and series trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...Tom O'Brien has won and covered last four in series. O'Brien 19-6 vs. spread beginning with fifth game of season on board since 2008. NCS, based on team and series trends.

LSU at ALABAMA...LSU had failed to cover five straight in series prior to rousing 24-21 win at Baton Rouge LY. Last five in series "over" as well. Tigers no covers last three at Baton Rouge after covering previous 4 and 5 of 6 at Tuscaloosa. Road team had covered 11 of 12 meetings prior to 2002. LSU has covered five straight away from home since late 2010. Les Miles 4-1 last 5 as dog. Saban 9-5 last 14 vs. line at home vs. FBS foes and 31-15 vs. spread last 46 on board. Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.

OREGON at WASHINGTON...Ducks have won and covered last seven meetings. UW 10-2 SU and vs. line last 12 since late 2010. Ducks only 5-8 vs. line last 13 away from Eugene. Slight to UO, based on series trends.

ARIZONA STATE at UCLA...Neuheisel 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-9 last 11 on board, 4-12 last 16 vs. spread since early 2010. Home team has covered last five in series but note Dennis Erickson 6-1 vs. spread last seven on Pac-12 trail. ASU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at CAL (from AT&T Park, San Francisco)...WSU is 11-5 its last 16 on board and has covered last two vs. Cal. Tedford only 4-8 his last 12 on board, though Cal is 3-0 as home chalk at AT&T and the Stick this season. WSU, based on recent series trends.

NOTRE DAME at WAKE FOREST...Jim Grobe 12-6 last 18 as home dog. Brian Kelly 6-3 vs. spread at ND away from home but has only covered 6 of 16 as chalk. Wake, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at EAST CAROLINA...USM on a nice uptick, won and covered last six TY. Revenge for Golden Eagles after losing 44-43 shootout to ECU LY. USM had covered previous three meetings. USM, based on recent trends.

IDAHO at SAN JOSE STATE...Spartans 0-4 as chalk under McIntyre and no covers last 8 in role. Robb Akey has covered 4 of last 5 on road with rugged Vandals. Dog has covered last three in series. Idaho, based on team and series dog trends.

UTAH at ARIZONA...Utes only 4-8-1 last 13 on board since late LY. These are long ago WAC rivals. Slight to Arizona, based on recent Ute negatives.

STANFORD at OREGON STATE...Tree still 10-0-1 vs. lien last 11 on board. Beavers only 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home but Mike Riley is 21-8 last 29 as dog. Stanford, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Mike Gundy has covered last seven TY and is 17-4 vs. number since beginning of 2010. Bill Snyder 12-6 as dog since returning to KSU sidelines in 2009. OSU, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI at BAYLOR...Note that Art Briles covered in '08-09 vs. Pinkel. Baylor 3-0 vs. line TY at Waco. Slight to Baylor, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON at UAB...UH 3-9 vs. line as road chalk since 2009 (1-2 TY), while UAB 5-1 last 6 vs. line despite Marshall loss. Slight to UAB, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH...Road team has won and covered the past two years. Cincy has covered four of last five TY. If chalk note Bearcats 5-1 last six on road in role. Slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at SAN DIEGO STATE...New Mexico has actually covered 9 of last 10 in series. Lobos now no covers last 4 TY and 2-8 vs. line last 10 since late 2010. SDSU, based on UNM woes.

UTEP at RICE..Rice had owned UTEP until LY, covering 7 straight vs. Miners prior to 44-24 loss at Sun Bowl in 2010. Owls have still covered four straight at home vs. UTEP. Owls 25-11 as home dog since 2000 (5-3 since LY). Rice, especially if dog, based on team and extended series trends.

LA TECH at FRESNO STATE...La Tech has covered 4 of last 5 TY and is 4-0 as dog in 2011. LT had covered six straight in this series before losing at home to Pat Hill LY. LT 4-0-1 vs. line last five trips to Bulldog Stadium. FSU 7-23 last 30 vs. line at home. LT, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at UNLV...Boise now 12-1 vs. line last 13 away from blue carpet. UNLV lurking, however, and 7 -1 vs. line against FBS at Sam Boyd Stadium since LY. Rebs 15-5 last 19 as home dog dating to the Mike Sanford years and mid 2006. Slight to Boise, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at HAWAII...USU beginning to wobble with losses in its last two. Utags still 19-9 vs. line away since 2007. UH 9-1 vs. line last 10 reg. season at Aloha Stadium, and Leahey has won and covered last two years vs. Aggies. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at NAVY...Mids no covers last three at home TY, and just 11-20 vs. points their last 31 at Annapolis. Troy, however, just 7-13 vs. line since LY. Troy only 3-8-1 last 12 against line outside of Belt. Slight to Troy, based on Navy home woes.

UL-MONROE at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL has won and covered last three meetings. Ragin' Cajuns 11-7 last 18 as chalk though just 2-6 vs. line last 8 as host (covers in last two at Cajun Field, however). Slight to ULL, based on series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at WESTERN KENTUCKY...FIU has cooled considerably with no covers last five TY. WKU on 4-game spread uptick since the Indiana State drubbing in mid-September. WKU, based on recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at TENNESSEE...Vols have covered 4 of last 5 as home chalk, but MTSU has covered last four as visitor since late LY. MTSU, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...FAU 2-6 vs. line TY, ASU 7-1 vs. line TY. Howard 2-10 last 12 on board, 3-14 last 17, and 2-9 vs. line as host sine 2009 (0-2 in new stadium TY). ASU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

News & Notes - Week 10

November 2, 2011

Week 10

Pittsburgh dominated their Wednesday night game vs Connecticut even more than the final score as in the 1H they had a 321-80 yd edge but had a FD at the UC22 with :13 left and no time-outs and took a sack and got zero points and only led 21-3. Pitt led 35-13 when UC took over with 3:22 left and went 71/8pl for a garbage TD with :43 left. The victory was costly for Pitt as they lost star RB Graham (knee) as well as starting OT Matt Rotheram (brk ankle) and starting WR Cameron Saddler (fractured sternum) all for the season...

Michigan RB Fitzgerald Toussaint ran for a career high 170 yards. UM had 339 yds rushing and a 535-311 yd edge. Things looked good for Purdue early as they got a 48 yd TD pass to lead 7-0 and UM scored a TD then was int'd on their next 2 drives but PU was sk'd for a safety then gave up a 37 yd FG, was int'd and UM drove 83/5pl for a TD and UM added a 22 yd FG on the final play of the half to lead 22-7 and PU's first four 2H poss were 3 punts and an SOD at the UM1 when trailing 36-7...

Louisville had a 339-182 yd edge and led 27-3 when Syracuse took over with 2:53 left and went 63/6pl and on 4&7 got a 20 yd TD pass with 1:31 left to "only" lose 27-10...

Virginia Tech in the 1H vs Duke had a 301-162 yd edge, was int'd at the Duke2 and from the Duke30 was int'd in the EZ and also missed a 29 yd FG. In the 2H VT clinging to a 14-10 lead, punted with 1:50 left and Duke was int'd on 4&1 at their own 38 with :55 left...

Washington State actually had a 30-20 FD edge vs Oregon despite the fact that RB LaMichael James and QB Thomas ret'd and started. Brian Bennett replaced Thomas in the 2H. In the 2H WSU had a 260-215 yd edge but they were int'd at the 2 with 8:17 left in the 1Q, int'd at the 2 with 8:35 left and missed a 25 yd FG and trailed 15-10 at the half. The Ducks finally got some breathing room with a Thomas 93 yd KR TD and WSU trailed 43-20 when they went 85/13pl getting a 9 yd TD run and 2 pt conversion with 1:50 left in the game...

Oklahoma lost leading rusher Whaley to injury on the first play of the game and it was really a story of 2H's. In the 1H Kansas State led 17-14 mid2Q but a key play of the game happened with :19 left in the half. KSU was down by 3 and had the ball but fmbl'd and OU would get a 53 yd FG that just cleared the upright on the final play of the half which gave them momentum into the locker room and a 23-17 lead. The Sooners scored TD's on their first 5 poss of the 2H while KSU punted on all 5 and the game turned into a blowout with OU finishing with a 690-240 yd edge...

Notre Dame was coming off a disappointing loss the previous week to USC and held Navy to a season low 229 yds. Navy was starting backup QB Miller (5-13-33) who rushed for 55 yards on 19 carries. ND had 2 RB's score multiple TD's for the first time since 2001 and the starters sat the 4Q. ND led 35-7 at the half with a 258-100 yd edge. Navy was SOD at the ND14 on their opening 3Q drive and the Irish went 86/9pl for a TD to go up 42-7. Navy was SOD at their own 43 and the Irish 5pl later got another TD for a 49-7 lead en route to their 56-14 win...

As has been the case in all three Texas A&M losses this year they blew a double digit halftime lead as they led 28-17 at the half but only managed a FG in the 2H. A&M led 28-14 when Missouri got a 26 yd FG on the final play of the half to give them some momentum. Still the game shifted when A&M up 28-17 with 11:20 left was int'd at the 25 and ret'd 45 yds. MO drove 30/3pl to get a TD to get back in the game and then went 79/6pl for the lead, 31-28. A&M tied it on a FG with 4:10 left after having a FD at the 15. A&M was sk'd on FD at the MO42 with :25 left and fmbl'd and MO missed a 46 yd FG but got a TD on 3&8 in OT on an 11 yd pass and A&M was SOD on 4&5...

Arkansas is the anti-Texas A&M as for the 3rd time this season, they trailed by DD but rallied for a win. Casey Hayward broke up 6 passes and Vanderbilt actually finished with a 462-388 yd edge. Ark rallied to tie it on a 94 yd FR TD with 13:25 left in the game and took the lead on a 42 yd FG with 6:53 left but had the ball on their own 39 with 4:37 left and went conservative. On 3&8 that was partially blk'd, they ran for a 1 yd loss and punted and VU went 80/8pl but missed a tying 27 yd FG at the end...

Northwestern scored on 9 of their first 10 poss and piled up a 616-488 yd edge in a high scoring shootout vs Indiana. IU has now allowed 40+ points in 4 straight games. NU had a 59-31 lead when IU got a TD with 9:08 left and NU then ate up the final 9:08 going 54/17pl taking a knee at the IU8 to end it...

Minnesota students stormed the field after their upset of Iowa. It was a game where IU blew numerous chances to put the game away and left the scrappy Gophers in the game. UM had been outscored 48-0 in the 1Q of their first 7 games but it was scoreless. IU took their first 5 drives of the game into UM territory but were SOD at the UM31, punted 19 yds, missed a chip shot 21 yd FG on 4&2 and missed a 43 yd FG that clanged off the upright and it was just 7-7 at the half despite a 260-165 yd edge. UI leading 14-7 was at the UM14 when they were sk'd and fmbl'd and it was ret'd 43 yd getting the Gophers back in the game. It was still UI 21-10 when they gave up a TD with 8:22 left and UM then rec'd a surprise onside kick and would get a TD on 4&gl from the 3 with 2:48 left and went for the gutsy 2 pt conv (failed) but they still led by 1. IU was SOD on 4&10 at its own 31...

Tulsa pounded SMU with a 451-265 yd edge. The game was played with 28 mph swirling winds but TU settled for a 22 yd FG on their 2nd poss then after an int, drove 20/5pl for a TD and after a 27 yd punt into the wind and K/C interf, drove 25/6/pl for a TD to lead 17-0. It was 24-0 at the half and they had a 230-76 yd edge and increased the lead to 38-7 when SMU gained 72 and 56 yds on their final 2 drives which ended on SOD at the 3 and int in the EZ from the 4...

Florida lost their 4th in a row for the first time since 1988. Georgia had a 354-226 yd edge but ST hurt them as UF had a 99 yd KR TD and a 63 yd KR set up a 40 yd FG. UGA got a TD with 13:18 left to lead 24-20 and at the end of the game, UGA had a 4th & 2 at the UF10 and broke a tackle and was brought down at the 1 on what would be the last play of the game...

One week after North Carolina committed 6 TO's vs Clemson, they forced 5 from Wake Forest. It wasn't just the TO's that had NC winning 49-24 as they had a 562-331 yd edge. NC drove 34 and 77 yds on their first 2 poss, both after WF TO's for a 14-0 lead but only led 14-10 at the half with a 215-134 yd edge. NC missed a 47 yd FG and only led 21-17 when they went 80/9, 34/5pl (after int), 41/3pl (after int) and 75/6pl (WF SOD) for TD's on 4 consecutive poss to go up 49-17...

Joe Paterno broke Eddie Robinson's record for victories by a Div I coach with 409 but this was a low scoring defensive battle with 18 punts in a game played in snow. Illinois had 94 yds passing and the Lions just 98. Penn State was SOD on 4&1 at the UI35 and UI went 64/11pl for a TD and a 7-0 lead with 3:32 left 3Q, which appeared commanding. PSU settled for a 30 yd FG with 7:00 left and got it back at their 20 with 3:05 left and went 80/10pl for a TD with 1:08 left. UI did drive but a 42 yd FG bounced off the upright on the final play...

Army gave Max Jenkins his first career start in what would be his last game at Michie Stadium as a senior. The game was played in snow. Fordham was shutout for the first time in six years and allowed 50 points for the first time in over a decade. Army led 42-0 at the half and very few fans remained at the end in the freezing stands. Rich Ellerson who played in the CFL said he'd never played in a game with such high winds and that they were playing a team that wanted to throw the ball and it was difficult to throw. Army finished with 544-86 yd and 27-6 FD edges...

If you were watching the scoreboard, Oklahoma State absolutely dominated Baylor in their 59-24 win as it was 35-0 at half and 49-3 after 3Q's. BU actually finished with a 36-23 FD edge and it was not all garbage yards. In fact BU's first drive went 69/16pl but on 4&1 they were SOD at the gl line. BU fmbl'd the KO setting up a 13 yd OSU TD. BU went 49/7pl but missed a 48 yd FG. BU went 63/13pl but on 3&gl from the 5 was int'd in the EZ. BU went 46/11pl but on 4&1 was SOD at the OSU32. BU went 57/8pl but on FD from the OSU26 was int'd at the 11 and ret'd 34 yds. BU fmbl'd in the 3Q to set up an OSU 7 yd TD drive, went on a 10pl TD drive for a 36 yd FG, a 66/9pl drive but fmbl'd at the OSU1 before finally getting a TD on the first play of the 4Q when trailing 49-3...

Rutgers was led out on the field by former player Eric LeGrand and the game was played in poor conditions with rain and blowing snow. Footing was tortuous and no more than 5,000 were in the stands cutting down on RU's home edge. The Knights appeared poised for the upset as they led 31-21 at the half and were up 31-28 when with 11:02 left when they faked a 28 yd FG and had an open man in the EZ but the pass was floated and hung up for a little but was dropped. West Virginia got a TD with 6:18 left then RU fumbled at their own 37 and WV got the frontdoor cover on a 37/3pl drive for a TD with 4:50 left. RU's last 2 drives were SOD at the WV33 and int'd WV22...

Hawaii did have a 353-234 yd edge vs Idaho but it was a tough loss for the Vandals. In the 1H they were SOD on 4&1 at the UH42 which set up a UH FG and they trailed 13-7. UI got a 70 yd FR TD with 4:22 left in the 3Q to lead 14-13. Idaho had 2 chances to put it away. They went for it again on 4&1, this time at the UH16 with 14:11 left and was SOD. UI was driving again and with 3:04 left, up by 1, UI had 3&6 at the UH9 but was int'd at the 5. UH drove and got a 35 yd FG with :30 left for the lead. UI got 1 FD and then gained 6 yds on 2 passes and their 53 yd FG on the game's final play was no good...

Texas had a 5 game home losing streak in Big 12 play end in a thoroughly dominating 43-0 romp over Kansas. UT had a 35-3 FD and 590-46 yd edge. At the half they had a 316-10 yd edge and punted just once while KU punted 7 times...

Mississippi and Auburn were tied 17-17 at half and UM had a 215-191 edge but Clint Moseley would have his first 4 career TD passes and AUB got WR Blake back and he had 71 yards rec. AUB dominated the 3Q with a 141-22 yd edge and pulled away in their 41-23 win with UM even getting a 10 yd TD pass on the game's final play...

Clemson came in unbeaten and Georgia Tech off 2 losses and a key injury note was that RB Andre Ellington for CU DNP. CU took their opening drive 67/12pl but settled for a 34 yd FG. CU fmbl'd on their own 19 and GT would go 71/8pl, 80/11pl and 78/9pl on their next 3 poss all for TD's to lead 24-3 at the half with CU missing a 40 yd FG. CU got a TD with 14:47 left to get within 14 then got a 26 yd IR to the GT9 but threw an int in the EZ and GT went on a back breaking 58/16pl drive before being SOD with 1:29 left while CU's final play was an int at midfield with 1:06 left..Kentucky lost starting QB Morgan Newton on the 3rd series of the game trailing 7-3 at the time. MSU had a 21-6 lead at the half and was int'd at the 2 with the Bulldogs having a 271-127 yd edge. Frosh QB Maxwell Smith for UK caught his stride in the 2H. He led UK 51/12pl for a 35 yd FG on the first drive then 70/11pl for a TD to pull them within 28-16 with 13:50 left. On their 3rd and last drive of the 4Q, UK went 68/16pl but on 4&7 was SOD at the 8 with 4:46 left and the Bulldogs got 3 FD's running out the clock.

FRONTDOOR COVERS

East Carolina did have a 461-266 yd edge vs Tulane but TU actually led 10-7 at one point after an 11 yd punt set them up for a 47/2pl TD drive. It was 17-13 at the half and 27-13 when TU was SOD on 4&9 at the EC44. EC went 56/5pl getting a TD with 2:11 left to go up 34-14...

Arizona State did score 3 TD's in the 1Q and led 21-0 vs a banged up Colorado team. Tyler Hansen did not start but came off the bench in CU's 3rd series and threw for 285 yards. ASU only had a 522-420 yd edge. They led 31-7 at the half and it was 34-7 when CU was SOD on 4&gl at the ASU1. CU then fmbl'd the punt at their own 13 and ASU got a TD to go up 41-7 but CU answered with a TD with 12:45 left, 41-14. CU was SOD on 4&2 at the ASU49 with 8:23 left and ASU went 51/5pl for an 8 yd TD run with 6:20 left to get ahead of the spread. Hirschman came in for QB Colorado and they went 70/7pl. On 2&11 from the aSU15 Ford got a 12 yd run to the 2 but fmbl'd and ASU hung on for the cover.

SHUTOUTS

Air Force lost QB Tim Jefferson in the 1Q but Connor Dietz filled in well even though he threw 1 pass, he rushed 6 times for 87 yds. AF, despite being in a flat spot, did lead 35-0 at the half with a 240-115 yd edge. New Mexico fumbled the punt on their own 24 and was int'd with 3:06 left in the half setting up an AF TD with 1:55 left. NM was int'd at the AF14 and missed 40 and 30 yd FG's on their 3 poss in the 2H resulting in a 42-0 shutout...

Florida State had a 444-166 yd edge including 249-106 in the 1H where they led 24-0. N.C. State's best scoring chances ended on a missed 51 yd FG and a fumble at the FSU30. FSU only led 24-0 when they got a 39 yd FG with 8:56 left and added a 26 yd TD pass with 4:28 left.

SITUATIONAL EDGES

Nebraska had a huge situational edge vs Michigan State catching the Spartans off 2 big home wins vs Michigan and Wisconsin and they had little left in the tank while Nebraska was off a bye and an easy romp over Minnesota. In the 1H NU led 10-3 but only had a 101-83 yd edge with a 25 yd TD drive after an int. The Huskers went 80/13pl and 89/11pl on their first 2 drives of the 3Q to take command, 24-3 and at the Legends division, as they now hold the tie-breaker over MSU. NU only finished with a 270-187 yd edge...

Kent State was fresh off a bye while Bowling Green was playing their 9th straight grueling game and came off a big upset of Temple. BG did have a 4-2 TO deficit. The final score came with KSU leading 20-15 when BG with :15 left was sk'd and KSU ret'd it for a TD in the 27-15 win...

Central Florida was off an upset loss as a big HF and Memphis was off an upset win as a DD road dog. The situation said UCF would be angry and smack someone and that they did. They had 28-6 FD and 501-134 yd edges in their 41-0 win...

Texas Tech was off their big upset win over Oklahoma, moving up to #19 in the polls and were thoroughly waxed by Iowa State as they were outgained 512-290 and ISU's 368 yds rushing was their most since 2002. It was the 2nd straight year ISU beat a ranked team on the road and there was nothing fluky about it. The Cyclones had 67 and 80 yd TD drives and after a 41 yd IR, got a 1 yd TD drive to go up 21-0 and it was 24-7 at the half. They got a 71 yd TD run in the 3Q then leading 31-7 took over with 4:48 left in the 3Q and went on a back breaking 82/17pl drive for a TD with 11:08 left to make it 38-7. TT had just 191 yds passing...

Ohio State had a large situational edge vs Wisconsin, catching them on their 2nd straight national TV road game while OSU was fresh off a bye, playing with revenge and in a rare role of home underdog. At the half UW led 7-3 but their powerful run game was held to 10 yds rushing and for the game OSU had a 268-89 yd edge. OSU led 26-14 after getting a TD with 4:39 left but the Badgers got 2 TD's to take the lead with 1:18 left, 29-26. After a 41 yd KR, OSU got a 40 yd TD pass with :20 left and UW had an untimed down at the OSU43 after a face mask pen and Russell Wilson was hit as he threw and the ball fell incomplete.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 10

November 2, 2011

Iowa (+4.5) vs. Michigan - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN

IOWA: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, L 21-22
MICH: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Purdue, W 36-14

Michigan got back on track after losing its first game of the season to Michigan State with a big 36-14 blowout of Purdue. The Wolverine offense exploded for 535 yards and 25 first downs. Surprisingly it wasn't QB Robinson leading the charge. RB Fitzgerald Toussaint sparked the offense with a career high 170 rush yards with two touchdowns. The defense, which ranks 28th in total defense & 6th scoring defense, performed very well following the bye week as it held Purdue to 311 yards and 16 first downs.

Iowa will look to regroup after an embarrassing loss to Big Ten doormat Minnesota. Iowa had 269 rushing yards (252 by RB Coker), 21 first downs and 446 total yards. Yet the Hawkeyes couldn't beat one-win Minnesota. Iowa could still make a lot of noise in the Big Ten race as three of its final four games are against the top three teams in the Big Ten Legends division (Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska).

Iowa's defense ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten in almost every category and this unit could struggle against Denard Robinson and this Wolverines offense. Iowa beat Michigan by 10 points last October, but was outgained by 134 yards and had eight fewer first downs (+4 turnover margin in the game). Robinson completed 13-of-18 passes with one touchdown and also rushed for 105 yards, despite missing time with an injury.

Something to consider: Iowa is now 0-3 on the road, losing all three games by a total of 14 points and scoring only 19 points per game. The good news for the Hawkeyes is they now return home to Kinnick Stadium where they are 5-0 this year and averaging 39 points per game.

Michigan State (-28) vs. Minnesota - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

MSU: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS - Last week: at Nebraska, L 3-24
MINN: 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Iowa, W 22-21

Michigan State nearly got through its brutal October schedule unscathed. The Spartans made it through Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin with a 3-0 record before falling to Nebraska last week. They couldn't get anything going on offense. QB Cousins completed 11-of-27 passes for 86 yards with one interception and led this offense to just 187 yards and 3 points. Defensively MSU looked worn down from the difficult schedule, as this unit allowed 190 rush yards to Nebraska. The Spartans have the most advantageous November schedule of any Big Ten Legends contender, starting Saturday when they host Minnesota. Expect an inspired performance here from the Spartans as they try to get back on track.

Minnesota had the league's most surprising win last week with a 22-21 win over Iowa last week as a 14.5 point underdog, ending a four-game skid. The Gophers received terrific performances from QB Gray (193 pass yards, 63 rush yards and two total touchdowns) and RB Bennett (101 rush yards with one score). They are technically still alive for a bowl bid, but it's hard to expect Jerry Kill's crew to match the intensity displayed at home last week against rival Iowa.

Something to consider: In 2010, Michigan State matched up with Minnesota at home a week after its first and only Big Ten loss (just like this year). The Spartans jumped ahead 21-0 at halftime and cruised in the 2nd half, winning by 23 points.

Ohio State (-28) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

OSU: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, W 33-29
IND: 1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, L 38-59

Ohio State handed Wisconsin its second straight defeat on a Hail Mary as QB Miller found WR Smith with 20 seconds left to get a four-point win. The freshman Miller had easily his best game as a starter, throwing for one touchdown and rushing for two more while committing zero turnovers. The Buckeyes are now in great position in the Big Ten Leaders division after most people wrote them off after an 0-2 start in conference play. Can OSU avoid a letdown performance and cover a huge spread after a monster revenge win last week?

Indiana lost its sixth straight game and fourth straight by 21+ points. This Hoosiers defense has now allowed 51 points per game over the previous four and ranks 112th nationally in total defense for the season. This unit allows over 230 rush yards per game, and will have an extremely difficult time slowing down this Buckeye backfield of Miller and Herron (259 combined rush yards against Wisconsin last week).

The Hoosiers had a nice contribution from QB Robinson and RB Houston, who combined for 272 rush yards and three touchdowns last week against Northwestern. However, don't expect a repeat performance from those two here against this Buckeyes rush defense that allows 113 yards per game (26th nationally). They allowed just 89 rush yards to Wisconsin (UW averages over 230 rush yards per game).

Something to consider: Ohio State has won 10 straight games over Indian by an average score of 36-9. OSU has covered six straight meetings and eight of the last 10 overall (favored by double digits in all 10 games).

Wisconsin (-26) vs. Purdue - 3:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2

WISC: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, L 29-33
PUR: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 14-36

Wisconsin finally returns home to Camp Randall Stadium after back-to-back heartbreaking road losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. In both games, Wisconsin scored two unanswered touchdowns in the final minutes to either tie/take a lead. And in both games, the opponent completed a Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds. What was once a dream season has turned into a nightmare. Will the Badgers respond with an inspired performance here at home to get back on track?

The Badgers allowed 58 total points through its first six games before allowing 70 points the previous two. The Badgers also struggled offensively - by their standards - by only managing 342 yards and 29 points against the Buckeyes last week (came into that game averaging 500+ yards and 50+ points per game). QB Wilson (19 pass touchdowns) and RB Ball (21 touchdowns!) should have a big day against this Purdue defense that struggled against Michigan last week.

Purdue was thoroughly dominated by Michigan last week after a promising win over Illinois the week prior. The Boilers' defense allowed 535 yards and after the offense scored less than two minutes into the game, failed to get much of anything accomplished the final 58 minutes of the game. This defense has to get better fast, as they travel to Madison to face an angry offense that averages over 50 points at home. The Boilers are 0-5 straight up and ATS against the Badgers over the last five meetings.

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 21-1 at home over the previous 22 games. The Badgers have covered seven of last eight home games home games average win margin of 41 points per game.

Nebraska (-17.5) vs. Northwestern - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

NEB: 7-1 SU, d3-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, W 24-3
NW: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: at Indiana, W 59-38

The Blackshirts are back after Nebraska's defense held Michigan State to just 187 yards and 3 points in the big win last week. The Huskers will have to avoid a letdown performance here as they go against a strong Northwestern offense fresh off of a 59-point performance against Indiana.

Northwestern has a bit of momentum going now after its first Big Ten win of the season. The Wildcats gained 616 yards of total offense (317 rush yards & 299 pass yards) and 30 first downs. QB's Persa and Colter combined to complete 18-of-23 passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Persa is completing 76% of his passes with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions since returning from injury. The Wildcats need to win three of its final four games to become Bowl eligible this season.

Northwestern will need a better defensive performance to keep pace with Nebraska. This Wildcat stop-unit ranks 99th nationally in yards allowed and 91st in points allowed. It has been holding them back the entire season and could get run over again by this Nebraska offense that comes in averaging 252 rush yards per game behind RB Burkhead and option QB Martinez.

Something to consider: Northwestern is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog while the Huskers are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a double-digit home favorite.

Penn State - BYE

PSU: 8-1 SU, 2-7 ATS - Last week: vs. Illinois, W 10-7

Defense continues to win games for this Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions stop-unit allowed just seven points to Illinois last week in the 10-7 victory and is allowing just 12.4 points per game on the season (4th nationally). Penn State is 8-1 (just 2-7 ATS) and controls its own destiny as it stares ahead at a daunting November schedule (Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin).

Illinois - BYE

ILL: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, L 7-10

Illinois has dropped three straight games after a 6-0 start. Last week they had a lead almost the entire game before allowing a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining. A missed field goal by kicker Dimke as time expired failed to tie the game against PSU. Illinois' offense had been averaging 35 points per game during the 6-0 start, but has managed just 28 TOTAL points the previous three weeks. A bye comes at a good time before Illinois plays two tough home games against Michigan and Wisconsin.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 10

November 2, 2011

Saturday - Michigan at Iowa (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Coming off an open date, Michigan responded to its first loss by spanking Purdue 36-14 as a 14-point home favorite. Fitzgerald Toussaint was the catalyst with 170 rushing yards and two TDs on 20 carries. Denard Robinson has a mediocre TD-INT ratio (11/11), but that doesn't tell the entire story for this dynamic signal caller. Robinson leads Michigan with 825 yards on the ground and 10 rushing TDs. Iowa is coming off an embarrassing 22-21 loss at Minnesota as a 14 ½-point road favorite. The Hawkeyes wasted an amazing effort from RB Marcus Coker, who ran for 252 yards and a pair of scores. Iowa QB James Vandenberg has filled in just fine for the departed Ricky Stanzi, throwing 17 TD passes compared to only four picks. The Hawks have beaten the Wolverines in the last two meetings and are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 encounters. They won 38-28 at The Big House last year. The 'over' is 5-3 overall for Iowa this season, but the 'under' is 5-3 for Michigan. Most books are listing Brady Hoke's squad as a four-point road favorite with a total of 58.




Saturday - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most books are listing Cincy as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 54. The Bearcats have won five straight games and they're 4-1 ATS since suffering their only loss of the season at Tennessee in Week 2. Senior QB Zach Collaros is enjoying an outstanding campaign, posting a 14/6 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. RB Isaiah Pead gives Cincy great balance, rushing for 703 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Pitt lost its star RB Ray Graham to a season-ending knee injury in last Wednesday's 35-20 home win over Pitt. QB Tino Sunseri has had a disappointing year, throwing as many interceptions (7) as TDs (7). When these teams met at Heinz Field two years ago, Tony Pike rallied Cincy to a 45-44 win in the snow. Pitt avenged that loss with a 28-10 victory last year. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings with the Bearcats.




Saturday - South Carolina at Arkansas (ESPN, 7:15 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday night, most books had Arkansas listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 53. Bobby Petrino's team has looked shaky in recent weeks, barely emerging from road games at Ole Miss and at Vandy with outright victories. The Razorbacks failed to cover the number in both spots, rallying from a 17-point deficit to beat Ole Miss. In last week's game in Nashville, the Hogs needed a 94-yard scoop-and-score TD, along with a two-point conversion, and a missed 27-yard field goal by Vandy that would've force overtime on the final play of the game. South Carolina is playing its third consecutive road games. The Gamecocks have won ugly in trips to Starkville and Knoxville, winning by scores of 14-12 and 14-3 over Mississippi St. and Tennessee, respectively. As a road underdog during Steve Spurrier's tenure, South Carolina owns a 12-7-1 spread record. This is the first time Spurrier's squad has been listed as an underdog this year.




Saturday - Kansas State at Oklahoma State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday evening, most betting shops had Oklahoma St. installed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 69. Mike Gundy's team improved to 31-12 against the spread as a favorite during his seven-year tenure by blasting Baylor by a 59-24 count. The Cowboys led by a 49-3 score late in the third quarter thanks to another stellar effort from QB Brandon Weeden, who has 22 touchdown passes and is the catalyst for an offense that's averaging 49.9 points per game. Kansas St. is coming off its first loss of the season, as Oklahoma came to Manhattan and dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 58-17 clubbing. The Wildcats have won outright in a pair of games as road underdogs this year and they're 4-0 ATS in their four such spots. When these Big 12 rivals met last year, Oklahoma St. won a 24-14 decision as a 3 ½-point road 'chalk.' The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings. As for this season, the Cowboys have seen the 'over' go 3-3-2 overall, 2-1-1 in their home games. The 'over' has hit in all three of KSU's road assignments and has cashed in five of its last six regardless of the venue.




Saturday - Oregon at Washington (FSN, 10:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

With Oregon's trip to Stanford looming next week, this certainly qualifies as a look-ahead situation for the Ducks, who have won seven in a row since losing their season opener against LSU. Most books are listing Chip Kelly's team as a 16 ½-point favorite with a total of 74. Oregon, which was on a 3-0-1 ATS run until failing to take the cash in last week's 43-28 win over Washington St., is expected to get All-American RB LaMichael James back after a two-game absence (elbow). Washington bounced back from a blowout loss to Stanford to beat Arizona 42-31 last weekend. Chris Polk paced the Huskies with 144 rushing yards and four TDs. Oregon has won seven straight in this rivalry, going 6-0-1 versus the number. The Ducks crushed the Huskies 53-16 in 2010. The 'over' is 5-2-1 overall for UW, 3-1-1 in its home games. The 'over' is 5-3 overall for Oregon, 1-1 in its two true road assignments.

[StarDust Bum]

Florida St. at Boston College

November 2, 2011

Matchup: Florida State (5-3) at Boston College (2-6)
Venue: Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 2
Time/TV: 8:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Florida State -14.5, o/u 45

On the verge of running my Thursday night record to a very nice 6-3, I choked. Or did I? All I know is it’s bad enough dealing with an inconsistent team like Virginia but when they square off against an equally up and down team like Miami? Forget it - impossible to predict.

Seriously, will you get the Cavaliers team that needed overtime to beat Idaho (34-31) at home, the one who was pounded by North Carolina State (14-28)? Or will you get the one who handled an undefeated Georgia Tech (24-21) team? Similarly, will the Miami team show up who owned Ohio State (24-6)? Or the one who lost to Maryland (24-32) and was trailing after one quarter to Bethune-Cookman (14-45)? Every team has their inconsistent moments but these two are especially hard to predict.

Of course, with the clarity provided by hindsight, Virginia was the easy call. As a two-touchdown underdog, they led from the very beginning and except for a few moments, never really let the Hurricanes get into the game.

With that setback, my Thursday night record falls back to 5-4. Staying in ACC country, let’s check out this week’s game.

Speaking of streaky teams, maybe it runs in the ACC because Florida State has certainly looked quite different at various times this season. After falling to Wake Forest (30-35) on Oct. 8, FSU sunk to 2-3 on the year. That must have been a wake-up call for the team, especially on defense. Since giving up 35 points in consecutive losses to Clemson and the Demon Deacons, the Seminoles allowed only 32 points total in their next three games – all wins - against Duke (41-16), Maryland (41-16) and N.C. State (34-0).

And don’t be surprised if the FSU defense again pitches a gem because their opponent this Thursday night is the Boston College Eagles, a team ranked 101st in the nation in total offense. Granted, FSU will have to travel the 1,100 miles up the coast to Boston – their longest trip of the regular season – and play in pretty chilly weather, but they are still a solid two- touchdown favorite.

Not only is the FSU defense looking to dominate once again but the Seminoles offense is ringing the scoreboard early and often. Coach Jimbo Fisher’s offense has now scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games for the first time since 2002.

As it often does, it all starts at the QB position where EJ Manuel has been quite generous this year. In fact, the FSU signal caller has spread the wealth to the extent that seven players have double-digit receptions so far in 2011. The leader of that group is WR Rodney Smith (27 catches, 468 yards) but not far behind is freshman WR Rashad Greene and his team leading six TD receptions. The good news for FSU fans is that Greene, who has missed the past three games with an ankle injury, will likely return this Thursday (confirm status).

It’s not all passing for FSU as Manuel can also rely on a potent ground game led by senior RB Jermaine Thomas, who has over 2,000 career rushing yards for the garnet and gold. It all adds up to a tremendous challenge for a Boston College defense which ranks 11th in the ACC in total defense (421 yards per game) and 7th in scoring defense (25 points per game). To have any chance to contain the Seminoles, the Eagles will have to get a tremendous individual effort from LB Luke Kuechly, the clear team leader who averages 16.2 tackles per game and leads all FBS players with 130 tackles.

However, even a monster game by Kuechly might not be enough against an FSU team which appears to be peaking after three consecutive ACC wins by a combined margin of 116-32. FSU will be looking to become bowl eligible for the 30th consecutive season with a win over the Eagles, which would extend the nation’s longest active streak of bowl appearances.

The Eagles can take some solace in the fact that he Seminoles are 2-3 in their last 5 Thursday night games (all on the road vs. ACC opponents) and 1-2 in Thursday games on a short week.

Thursday’s Betting Notes


FSU is 4-4 against the spread
On the road, the Seminoles have gone 1-2 both SU and ATS
As a double-digit favorite, FSU is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.
The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 on the road
Boston College is coming off a three-game road trip (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
At home, the Eagles are 1-3 SU both SU and ATS with the lone win coming against 1-AA Massachusetts (45-17)
BC has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1-1
The Eagles are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six encounters with FSU. The largest outcome during this stretch was 11 points (28-17) in 2005.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 1 LSU visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night

LSU TIGERS (8-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -5.5, Total: 41.5

The biggest game of the college football season takes place in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night when top-ranked LSU visits No. 2 Alabama.

The Tigers deserve to be No. 1 with the top-25-loaded schedule they have played, but Alabama is the better team here on both sides of the ball. Both schools have smart quarterbacks who won’t throw the game away, but Alabama (229 YPG, 5.8 avg) has a decisive edge over LSU (189 YPG, 4.3 avg) in terms of running the football. Trent Richardson (989 rushing yards, 18 total TD) had only six carries in last year’s loss at LSU after getting injured on a touchdown run. He certainly has a game-changing presence on the field. The Tide also have a stronger defense, having not given up more than 14 points to anybody, and that includes Penn State, Arkansas and Florida with John Brantley starting. The Tigers have been good, but they have also been very fortunate to play three straight games against teams breaking in a new starting QB (Florida’s Jacoby Brissett, Tennessee’s Matt Simms and Auburn’s Clint Moseley). The pick here is ALABAMA to win and cover.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also support the Crimson Tide:

Play On - Home favorites (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=280 YPG), allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games. (32-8 since 1992.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Despite LSU’s stellar 39.3 PPG (12th in nation), the Tigers rank 81st in total offense (372 YPG) and 99th in passing offense (183 YPG). QB Jarrett Lee does a fine job of managing the game though, with 13 TD and just one interception for the entire season. Co-QB Jordan Jefferson is 6-for-10 passing with 2 TD and has rushed 26 times for 111 yards and another 2 TD this year. He played pretty well in last year’s win over Alabama, completing 10-of-13 passes for 141 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. In addition to Jefferson, the Tigers have three other players that can run the football. Spencer Ware leads the team with 512 rushing yards and he is expected to return to the field after a one-game suspension. Michael Ford is averaging 5.6 YPC with six touchdowns, and Alfred Blue is at 4.4 YPC with four scores. But the best offensive player for this team recently has been junior RB Rueben Randle, who has 319 receiving yards and 4 TD in his past three games.

LSU’s defense has really stepped up in SEC play, holding all five conference foes to 11 points or less (8.2 PPG) and fewer than 250 total yards (209.6 total YPG). The Tigers are second in the nation in turnover margin (+1.9 per game) and are tied for 15th in Tackles for Loss (7.6 per game).

Alabama is 7-1 ATS on the season, with its only non-cover being a 41-0 win over North Texas when it was favored by 47 points. QB A.J. McCarron continues to mature throughout his sophomore season with 10 TD and just 3 INT on the year. His completion percentage is a strong 67%, which includes a 74% clip over his past three games. McCarron also knows his best option is to get the ball in Richardson’s hands. His 77 rushing yards against Tennessee in the last game broke a string of six straight 100-yard efforts, but Richardson is still averaging a hefty 6.6 yards per carry. Sophomore Eddie Lacy has an even higher YPC average at 8.0, scoring five times on his 58 carries.

The Crimson Tide defense has been unbelievable, leading the nation in scoring defense (6.9 PPG), total defense (181 YPG) and rushing defense (45 YPG), while ranking second against the pass (136 YPG). And like LSU, Alabama has also done a great job forcing turnovers, posting five straight games with two takeaways.

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: College football in November

The college football’s last full month of action is ready to begin, and there are several key factors to look for as the season winds down. One trend that should not be overlooked is how schools fare against the spread in November. To compile this list, we compiled all the game logs dating back to 2007.

Best ATS Records in November (2007-2010)
Team ATS Pct. SU
Ohio State 9-2 82% 11-1
Virginia Tech 13-3 81% 15-1
Arkansas 13-3 81% 12-4
Southern Miss 12-3 80% 12-3
Florida 12-4 75% 15-2
Ohio U. 9-3 75% 9-3
Boise State 11-4 73% 15-2
Bowling Green 11-4 73% 11-4
TCU 10-4 71% 12-2
Western Kentucky 7-3 70% 4-10

November is traditionally the month during which the elite shine both SU and ATS, as the top nine on this list are a combined 112-22 SU (84%) and 100-30 ATS (77%) in November. Three schools are above 80% ATS.
Ohio State has benefitted from four games versus Michigan in November, outscoring its rival 114 to 27 in these four contests.
Virginia Tech only has one SU defeat in the 11th month, by not allowing more than 21 points to any November opponent (12.2 PPG allowed). UNDER the total is 12-4 in these contests.
Arkansas has played LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina in all four Novembers of our study, and will do so again in 2011. The Razorbacks are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in these dozen meetings.


Worst ATS Records in November (2007-2010)
Team ATS Pct. SU
Michigan 2-12 14% 4-10
LSU 4-12 25% 10-7
Idaho 3-9 25% 1-12
Arkansas State 4-12 25% 6-10
Vanderbilt 4-11 27% 1-14
San Jose State 4-11 27% 4-11
Miami-FL 4-11 27% 7-9
Houston 4-11 27% 9-7
Kent State 4-10 29% 3-11
Oregon 4-9 31% 9-4
Mississippi State 4-9 31% 5-8
Iowa 4-9 31% 7-7

Bettors were sure sad to see Rich Rodriguez get fired at Michigan—the Wolverines were a comical 5-20 SU and 3-22 ATS (12%) in post-September games under Rodriguez.
Three schools clock in at 25% ATS in November, including LSU who is 2-9-1 ATS against their three November SEC foes (Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss).
Arkansas State is 1-8 ATS in their past nine during the month and Idaho is 1-12 SU in November.

[StarDust Bum]

FSU seeks 4th straight win Thursday visiting B.C.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (5-3)
at BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (2-6)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -14.5, Total: 44

Red-hot Florida State tries to extend a three-game winning streak (SU and ATS) when it lands in Chestnut Hill, MA for a Thursday night meeting with Boston College.

FSU has outscored three straight ACC opponents (Duke, Maryland and NC State) by a 116-32 margin, outgaining them by 621 total yards. However, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Florida State, including three SU upsets. They almost won in Tallahassee last year, leading 19-17 in the fourth quarter before FSU scored the game-winning TD with 10:50 remaining. Although B.C. is just 1-3 at home this year, all three losses were by eight points or less. Florida State will likely win the game, but expect BOSTON COLLEGE to keep the game closer than the spread would indicate.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Eagles:

Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (76-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.8%, +46.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Seminoles QB E.J. Manuel has completed 70.3% of his passes for 824 yards, 5 TD and 2 INT during the three-game win streak. He has also rushed for three scores. While the 12th-ranked passing offense (307 YPG) is in good shape, FSU has not been able to rush the football with great consistency, placing 89th in the nation at 126 YPG. Despite the 34-0 win over NC State last week, the ‘Noles gained only 123 yards on 37 carries (3.3 YPG) against a Wolfpack run defense ranked 71st in the nation. BC currently ranks 72nd in rushing defense, so FSU will be facing a similar opponent.

Defensively, FSU has been unrelenting for most of the season, ranking third in the nation in sacks (3.6 per game), fourth in rushing defense (77 YPG), sixth in Tackles For Loss (8.0 per game), eighth in total defense (276 YPG) and 12th in scoring (16.9 PPG). The Seminoles have allowed only 158 rushing yards on 1.7 yards per carry in the past three games combined.

Boston College snapped a seven-game FBS losing streak with a 28-17 win at Maryland last week thanks to Rolandan Finch’s 243 rushing yards and 2 TD on a whopping 39 carries. Fellow sophomore RB Andre Williams chipped in 72 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. The duo will likely have another heavy workload on Thursday as QB Chase Rettig has completed just 31-of-62 passes for 342 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT in the past three games combined. Rettig was 9-of-24 for 95 yards in last year’s loss in Tallahassee.

The B.C. defense continues to struggle due to a void of a pass rush. The Eagles have the fewest sacks in the nation (six) and rank 94th in Tackles for Loss (4.8 per game). They kept last year’s meeting close by forcing four FSU turnovers, but the Eagles have just four takeaways in six games versus FBS opponents this year.