NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/30 - 10/31)

[Udog]

NFL

Week 8

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles
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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47.5)

THE STORY: The Philadelphia Eagles headed into their bye week on a positive note. Since Andy Reid took over as head coach, they've been unbeatable after a week off. The Eagles will put a perfect 12-0 record under Reid following a bye when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night in a matchup of bitter NFC East rivals. Philadelphia, which had lost four straight games prior to a 20-13 victory at Washington on Oct. 16, has yet to win at home as it looks to get back in the division race. Dallas had a bye of sorts a week ago when it trampled the hapless St. Louis Rams 34-7 behind rookie DeMarco Murray's franchise-record 253-yard rushing performance in his first career start.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: This spread has remained fairly steady, moving to 3.5 before being bet back down to a field goal. The total has dropped from 51 points to 49.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3, 3-2-1 ATS): After its first five games were decided by four points or fewer, Dallas got a much-needed breather in the rout of the winless Rams. Subbing for an injured Felix Jones, Murray raced 91 yards for a touchdown on his first carry and the Cowboys amassed 294 yards on the ground – the fourth-best total in franchise history. Tony Romo threw for a pair of touchdowns and a season-low 166 yards while not committing a turnover for only the second game this campaign. WR Dez Bryant had five receptions for 90 yards – both season highs – and a scoring pass.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (2-4, 2-4 ATS): Philadelphia also emphasized the running game in its win over Washington, getting 126 yards and a touchdown on a career-high 28 carries by LeSean McCoy. Michael Vick has thrown eight interceptions in his last five games, but the one against Washington came on a deflection. The Eagles also received a boost from their beleaguered defense, which picked off four passes – three by safety Kurt Coleman. Philadelphia, which had allowed a shade under 30 points during its four-game skid, will have its best pass rusher back in the lineup when DE Trent Cole returns from a two-game absence.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams split the season series a year ago, with each winning away from home.

2. Romo has thrown a TD pass in 21 consecutive games, a team record.

3. McCoy is the first Philadelphia player to score at least one touchdown in each of the team’s first six games.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
* Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

PREDICTION: Eagles 30, Cowboys 27. Reid’s bye-week streak continues as Philadelphia outlasts Dallas in a shootout.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 31

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Chargers at Chiefs: What bettors need to know
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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 44)

THE STORY: The Kansas City Chiefs are feeling a lot better about themselves heading into this weekend’s matchup with the San Diego Chargers than they did when the teams met last month. The Chiefs will be seeking their fourth consecutive win and can pull within a half-game of the AFC West lead when they host the division-leading Chargers on Monday night. Such a scenario seemed highly improbable when the Chiefs suffered a narrow 20-17 loss at San Diego to drop to 0-3 – after having been outscored 89-10 in the first two weeks and losing star running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending knee injury.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-2): San Diego appeared on the way to its fourth straight win – and muzzling Rex Ryan – before blowing an 11-point halftime lead in a 27-21 loss at the New York Jets last week. San Diego was scoreless in the second half and received another shaky outing from QB Philip Rivers, who threw for a season-low 179 yards and had his fourth two-interception game – both coming in the fourth quarter. Rivers was also picked off twice by the Chiefs, but RB Ryan Mathews ran for 98 yards and a pair of first-half touchdowns. TE Antonio Gates had five catches for 54 yards and a TD last week in his return from injury.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-3): Kansas City rode six interceptions to a 28-0 win at division rival Oakland last week. Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers returns picks for touchdowns, helping the Chiefs survive a mediocre outing by Matt Cassel, who threw for 161 yards and was intercepted twice. Bruising RB Jackie Battle has rushed for 195 yards in the last two games after having 10 carries in the first four. Kansas City has turned its season around thanks to a soft schedule, beating Minnesota and Indianapolis (a combined 1-13) and a Raiders team that lost star RB Darren McFadden to injury in the first quarter and was without starting QB Jason Campbell.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City is looking to become the first team since Pittsburgh in 2000 to open the season with three straight losses and follow with four consecutive wins.

2. Gates, who had been sidelined by plantar fasciitis, hauled in his 70th career TD last week. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez (92) – a former Chief – is the only other tight end to reach that mark.

3. Chargers Pro Bowl LG Kris Dielman will not play after sustaining a concussion last week. He reportedly had a seizure on the team flight home.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This line opened with the Chargers installed as 3.5-point road chalk. San Diego was bet up to -4 at a few shops earlier in the week but just about everyone is dealing Chiefs +3 as of Sunday afternoon.

WEATHER:

Clear skies and mild temperatures are in the forecast for Monday's game at Arrowhead Stadium, with little wind expected.

TRENDS:

The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Chargers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.

The over is 29-11-4 in the Chargers' last 44 road games.

PREDICTION: Chargers 20, Chiefs 17. San Diego has won seven of the last eight vs. Kansas City and keeps it going with a late field goal.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 31

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Tale of the tape: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
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If you’re new to our Tale of the Tape pieces, we use them to dig into stand-alone games throughout the season. They’re stat heavy, hard-hitting, and quick, so that you’ll be able to rip through them and still have time to put a bet in while you’re stocking the fridge with beer.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (3, 44.5)

Offense

Everybody’s flipping out about Philip Rivers’ 11 turnovers but San Diego’s total offense ranks eighth in the league and the passing attack ranks seventh. The problem is the Chargers average only 23.5 points per game and they have a minus-five turnover ratio. Running back Mike Tolbert is doubtful, but Ryan Mathews should be able to handle the rushing load himself. He averages 4.6 yards per carry and is also a receiving threat out of the backfield with 24 catches.

Kansas City continues to run the heck out of the ball because they don’t really have much choice. The Chiefs rank seventh in rushing yards (129 yards per game) but sit 30th in passing yards (173.7 yards per game) while managing only 17.5 points per contest. Running back Jackie Battle gets the start this week and leads the team with 232 rushing yards.

Edge: Chargers


Defense

The Chiefs sit in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories, but they do rank third with 11 interceptions. They’re hoping Tamba Hali turns it up a bit. He led the AFC with 14.5 sacks last season, but the entire team has just six sacks this season. However, stopping the run is their biggest problem as they allow more than 125 rushing yards per game.

San Diego’s total defense ranks fifth in the league and the Chargers own the third best passing defense in the league, but they also struggle to stop the run allowing almost 122 yards per game. San Diego is looking to get a better pass rush as well. The Chargers have just 10 sacks on the season. Part of the problem is that injuries have left the team with just six of its defensive starters that began the season.

Edge: San Diego


Special teams

Kansas City’s special teams could play a major role in this one. Punter Dustin Colquitt is one of the best in the business with a net average of 41.6 yards and he pinned the Raiders inside the 20 three times in last week’s 28-0 blowout. Ryan Succop has hit seven of his 10 field goal attempts and the Chiefs boast a couple dangerous kick returners in Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas, both of whom are averaging better than 23 yards per kick return.

The Chargers felt this year was going to be different for their special teams but so far it’s been the same old story. They sit 27th in kick return coverage and 30th in punt return defense and after letting Darren Sproles walk to New Orleans they sit 25th in punt returns and 24th in kick returns. The only good news is that they haven’t missed a field goal yet.

Edge: Chiefs


Word on the street

“Three weeks ago everybody would’ve thought they could circle (the second Chiefs game) as another win. Not anybody in this room did. We’ve been that 1-3 team and now these Chiefs have bounced right back and haven’t lost since they were here. This is going to be all you’d expect in a division game, teams fighting for first place.” - San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers.

“I think we’re taking steps in the right direction. I think everybody in there is excited about the opportunity we have in front of us on Monday night. We’re up for the challenge and we’re excited about the opportunity again.” - Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel.

Final score prediction

Kansas City 20, San Diego 17


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