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**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 08:48 AM

NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report

Only one game on the Week 8 slate matches winning teams. But oh, it’s a doozy.

New England, 5-1 and off a bye, visits 5-2 Pittsburgh just as the Steelers are starting to resemble last year’s Super Bowl team.

Pittsburgh won its third straight Sunday behind suddenly healthy Big Ben, who threw for 361 yards and posted a season-high passer rating of 121.8.

The game carries the second-highest total, 50.5, to Sunday night’s Dallas-Philly tilt (51). Those matchups are drawing the most action on the board.

Books opened the Pats as 2.5-point favorites but could move them to 3.

“If this number had been made two weeks ago, when we saw Roethlisberger with a walking boot, you might have seen 3.5,” Jimmy Vaccaro, director at Lucky’s Sports Book, told ***********. “Now with the Steelers playing much better, Big Ben playing much better, and it’s at home, we went with 2.5.

“It’s never hard to get two-way action when you get teams like this playing each other,” he added. “A half-point here and there and you know you’re going to get money back. It’s not hard to get anybody to bet either side with just a small tweak.”

The public likely will back New England, Caesars Palace sportsbook manager Todd Fuhrman told ***********.

“How did New England take advantage of the bye week?” Fuhrman said. “You give a great coach like Bill Belichik time to prepare and it’s going to favor New England. Pittsburgh, however, has been absolutely lights out at home defensively this year (10 ppg). It’s going to make for an interesting matchup.”

The AFC heavyweights also met last year under similar circumstances. The game was at Heinz Field, and both entered 6-2.

Laying 4.5 points, the Pats built a 23-3 fourth-quarter lead and won 39-26. Tom Brady threw three TD passes to then-rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski.

“The Pittsburgh defensive issue in this matchup has been covering tight ends, and it could be the same again this year,” Las Vegas handicapper David Malinsky said. “The Steelers like big linebackers who can stuff the run and rush the passer, but are not necessarily suited for pass coverage. I’m not sure that has changed all that much, and they’ve got injuries on the D-line.”

The Pats have dominated the series, Covers expert Marc Lawrence noted. New England is 7-2 straight up and against the spread over the last nine meetings, including 6-0 SU and ATS when not entering off a division game.

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Arizona at Baltimore (-13), Jacksonville at Houston (-13) New Orleans at St. Louis (13.5 with Rams QB Sam Bradford playing, 15.5 without)

The first two spreads will change depending on how Baltimore and Jacksonville look Monday night.

The Ravens will be on a short week, while the Cardinals have to travel cross-country. Arizona is 3-8 ATS on the road since Kurt Warner retired.

No team was more impressive Sunday than the Texans, who manhandled the rested Titans. Now Houston could get top WR Andre Johnson back from his hamstring injury. He was running routes at close to full speed Friday.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

New England at Pittsburgh (2.5, 51), Cincinnati at Seattle (2.5, 39)

The Bengals are just 3-7 ATS coming off the bye the last 10 years, but this is a different team with efficient QB Andy Dalton.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says there’s a good chance QB Tarvaris Jackson (pectoral) will return. That’s good news for Seattle fans and anyone not related to Charlie Whitehurst. Often throwing high, Whitehurst completed 12 of 30 passes for 97 yards with no TDs and one INT against Cleveland.
Jackson is averaging 202.4 passing yards, with six TDs and five INTs.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3.5, 51), New England at Pittsburgh (2.5, 50.5)

The Eagles have disappointed everyone but over bettors: four of their six games have cleared the total.

However, Philly has posted a 2-8 O/U mark coming off the bye.

The Cowboys found a potential star Sunday in RB DeMarco Murray. He ran over the hapless Rams for a franchise-record 253 yards and now gets to face an Eagles defense allowing 4.8 yards a carry, which ranks 27th.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Cleveland at San Francisco (-9.5, 38.5), Cincinnati at Seattle (2.5, 39)

Cleveland looked impotent in winning 6-3 at home over Seattle. Now the Browns travel to the West Coast to face a rested 49ers defense allowing 16.2 points per game, second-fewest behind the Ravens.

Cincy, also coming off a bye, allows the fourth-fewest points at 18.5. The Bengals lead the league in total defense (278.5 yards per game).

Despite being elite defensive teams, San Fran and Cincy own a combined 9-3 O/U mark this year. They’ve combined to score five touchdowns on special teams and defense.

**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 08:53 AM

NFL Week 7 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

I don’t have a good lead so let’s discuss the six new quarterbacks that started in Week 7.

There must have been one hell of a South Beach party Saturday because even God overslept. He woke up halfway through the fourth and helped Denver’s savior deliver. Like I’ve said before, it’s tough to bet against Timmy. He’s got Flutie Magic.

Johnny Beck is worlds better than Rextasy but he’s still just average. By default he’s the guy going forward, but that can’t be the long-term solution. I’m looking to fade the ‘Skins from here on out, starting next week in O Canada.

You can bet that Kyle Boller will never see the field as a starter again. The worry in Raider Nation is that Carson looked almost as bad. Where’s the Great Gradkowski when you need him?

T-Jax slept soundly last night knowing his job was safe. Whitehurst may look like Jesus but he isn’t performing any miracles with the football. He’s got a better chance of turning water into wine than winning.

Sam Bradford standing on one leg would be better than Feeley. I doubt we’ll see him again unless the kid goes down permanently, which is a possibility with that awful O-line.

There’s nothing to ponder, Christian was better than all of these guys. He’ll quickly learn not to try and squeeze balls in front of Chuck Woodson but he was pretty solid in his first start.

THE GOOD…

Bears management isn’t handling Matt Forte’s financial situation the right way. Maybe more teams should stiff their stud in his contract year?

Forte is playing out of his mind. He is the only reason this offense has a pulse. I would love to hear Jerry Angelo explain how this guy isn’t an every-down back. Big mistake if they don’t re-sign him quickly.

I like to bet on quotes so when LeRon McClain told us a month ago the Chiefs would win their next five games I took note. I backed them against the Vikes but wimped out the last two wins. Shame on me.

The offense is still suspect, and I don’t trust Cassel, but Big Romeo’s group is playing well. They’re loose and they’ve stopped lamenting the loss of Eric Berry. Guys like Tamba “Taj Ma” Hali and Brandon Flowers are picking up the slack.

THE BAD…

The Matt Stafford Love Bus has briefly broken down. I’m still on board but may jump ship if it ever leaves the shop.

The throws Stafford was making the first month aren’t there anymore. His line is causing him to play scared. His internal clock has sped up and he doesn’t want to take sacks so he’s rushing throws.

It’s a mental thing right now but if the Lions don’t get Stafford protected it’s going to be a physical thing. Then we’ll have another Shaun Hill sighting, and that’s not a good thing.

Chris Johnson contracted a case of lethargy after he signed that big contract. Either he doesn’t care or the line doesn’t care to block for him.

CJ2K was MIA again but what happened to that Titanic defense? A full week to prepare and it gives up 41 points and 500 yards? The last two weeks are proof that this team can’t play from behind.

THE UGLY…

Fans that bought tickets for the Browns and Seahawks should get a refund, and then compensated for three hours of work because watching that that was like sitting at your desk bored out of your gourd.

I can barely stand to sift through the box score. Four teams had more yards alone than these putrid offenses combined. Oddsmakers could have flopped totals with Game 3 of the World Series and this would have still gone under. And the hardball went over.

Can you believe the Browns are 3-3? That might be the worst .500 team through six games ever. Cleve’s schedule gets scary the second half.

I like offense just as much as the next guy but these roughing-the-passer flags are flying out of control.

There were three painfully wrong calls this weekend. Kam Chancellor, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Yeremiah Bell should be getting apology letters from the NFL this week, not fine notices.

The more they handcuff the defense the more the offense will score. Penalties extend possessions and I’m not so sure we’re going to see totals come down as long the offenses are getting extra opportunities each week.

THE LEANS…

Bills -4 vs. Redskins - Neutral field matchup but I like Buffalo to beat up on Beck coming out off the bye.

Panthers -3 vs. Vikings - Still kicking myself for not backing the Kittens this week. Sir Cam Newton should be knighted.

Chiefs +3 ½ vs. Chargers - Big FU to San Diego from me for blowing that lead. Arrowhead will be rowdy under the Monday night lights.

NFL Record: 18-5-2, $1260

**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 08:55 AM

Instant replay: NCAA and NFL betting recap

Each week, we’ll recap all the betting information you need to know from the college and pro football action that went down over the weekend.

College football moneyline bettors were treated to a few major upsets that changed the landscape of the BCS standings. Meanwhile, everything seems to be settling down a bit in the world of NFL betting – on a larger spectrum at least.

Here is a quick snapshot of your weekend in football betting.

NCAAF betting recap

College football bettors who threw Oklahoma on the end of their parlay tickets were snapped back to reality. The Sooners lost outright to unranked Texas Tech as a 29-point favorite in the biggest upset of the season.

But it wasn’t the only upset of the weekend.

West Virginia also lost outright at Syracuse as a 14-point favorite, Georgia Tech fell 24-7 at Miami as a 3-point favorite, and Wisconsin lost 37-31 at Michigan State as a 7-point chalk.

In all, 16 underdogs won outright last weekend, but favorites were actually 27-25 against the spread and home teams were 31-21 against the number. Home underdogs finished at 12-8 against the spread while 27 overs paid out compared to 23 unders.

NFL betting recap

If you were looking for more offense, you just had to tune into the New Orleans Saints ripping the Indianapolis Colts 62-7 in Sunday Night football, but outside of that, it was a pretty average week in the NFL.

Favorites were 6-5-1 against the spread heading into Monday Night’s tilt between the Ravens and Jaguars, while Sunday’s games saw six overs and six unders cash.

There were a couple of ugly games on the schedule this week, highlighted by a Cleveland’s 6-3 barnburner victory over Seattle as a 3-point favorite and Kansas City’s 28-0 whitewashing of the Raiders in Carson Palmer's debut in Oakland. Four underdogs ended up winning outright.

Tim Tebow engineered one of the greatest comebacks you'll ever see when he helped the Broncos (-1) to an 18-15 overtime win over Miami after they trailed by 15 points with three minutes left in regulation.

On the year, favorites are 51-46-5 (52.6 percent) while the over is now hitting at a 56 percent clip.

**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 08:56 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Dallas at Philadelphia
The Cowboys look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Dallas is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 207-208: Indianapolis at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.907; Tennessee 128.555
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+9); Over

Game 209-210: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.749; Houston 139.762
Dunkel Line: Houston by 11; 37
Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-9 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Minnesota at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.011; Carolina 128.082
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: New Orleans at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.956; St. Louis 123.363
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+14); Under

Game 215-216: Arizona at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.115; Baltimore 141.113
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 20; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 12 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-12 1/2); Over

Game 217-218: Miami at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.319; NY Giants 131.575
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+10 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Washington at Buffalo (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.263; Buffalo 134.976
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-6); Over

Game 221-222: Detroit at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.586; Denver 128.607
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under

Game 223-224: New England at Pittsburgh (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.258; Pittsburgh 138.204
Dunkel Line: New England by 2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

Game 225-226: Cleveland at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.162; San Francisco 133.151
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+10); Over

Game 227-228: Cincinnati at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 129.832; Seattle 131.696
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 229-230: Dallas at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.730; Philadelphia 134.502
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3 1/2); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 231-232: San Diego at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.078; Kansas City 128.351
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 09:00 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 7) at TENNESSEE (3 - 3) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 3) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (2 - 5) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at ST LOUIS (0 - 6) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 2) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (0 - 6) at NY GIANTS (4 - 2) - 10/30/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 3) vs. BUFFALO (4 - 2) - 10/30/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (5 - 2) at DENVER (2 - 4) - 10/30/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) - 10/30/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 140-105 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-62 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 1) - 10/30/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (4 - 2) at SEATTLE (2 - 4) - 10/30/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 4) - 10/30/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 144-104 ATS (+29.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 31

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 3) - 10/31/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 09:04 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, 10/30/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-0 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
TENNESSEE: 12-29 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 2-7 ATS at Houston
HOUSTON: 5-1 Under vs. conference

MINNESOTA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 0-6 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
CAROLINA: 10-1 Under at home off home win by 10+ pts

NEW ORLEANS at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 10-3 Over off win by 14+
ST LOUIS: 0-6 ATS this season

ARIZONA at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 9-0 Over Away after trailing at half by 10+ L3 games
BALTIMORE: 54-33 ATS as home favorite

MIAMI at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 9-2 Under in road games
NY GIANTS: 14-5 Over in home games

WASHINGTON vs. BUFFALO, 4:05 PM ET - Rogers Centre - Toronto, Canada
WASHINGTON: 0-5 ATS vs. Buffalo
BUFFALO: 6-0 Over this season

DETROIT at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
DETROIT: 7-18 ATS off SU loss as home favorite
DENVER: 5-16 ATS vs. NFC North

NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 16-4 Over as favorite
PITTSBURGH: 2-7 ATS at home vs. New England

CLEVELAND at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 4-12 ATS on grass
SAN FRANCISCO: 18-7 Over off bye week

CINCINNATI at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 3-12 ATS as favorite
SEATTLE: 11-0 Over after having lost 2 out of L3 games

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 2-10 ATS Away off cover as DD favorite
PHILADELPHIA: 17-6 ATS playing w/ 2 wks rest

Monday, 10/31/2011

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
SAN DIEGO: 29-15 Over as road favorite
KANSAS CITY: 9-2 ATS off road game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-26-2011, 09:09 AM

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 30

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of St. Louis's last 21 games when playing at home against New Orleans
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
Indianapolis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY GIANTS
Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. BALTIMORE
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Baltimore is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CAROLINA
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
Carolina is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

4:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BUFFALO
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. DENVER
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Detroit

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England

4:15 PM
CLEVELAND vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Cleveland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games

4:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SEATTLE
Cincinnati is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
Cincinnati is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Dallas is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 19 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas

Monday, October 31

8:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 12 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-27-2011, 09:10 AM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we caught up with Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF live odds

Virginia at Miami -15.5 --->-13.5

Looks like this is yet another case of what have you done for me lately. The Hurricanes just drilled Georgia Tech 24-7 as a 2.5-point favorite while Virginia was spanked 28-14 at home by N.C. State, falling to 2-5 against the spread.

“This number came out slightly inflated based on Miami's big win over GT and UVA's home loss to NC State,” Fuhrman says. “These two teams are very inconsistent and typically alternate good efforts with clunkers so bettors saw value with the Wahoos above 14.”

Illinois at Penn State -6 ---> -4.5

Illinois has dropped two straight as a favorite and Penn State has covered only twice in its last 10 contests, so maybe it’s just a case of too many points with a pair of inconsistent teams squaring off.

“Did Illinois even leave Champaign last week? You wouldn’t know it by the level of effort they displayed,” Fuhrman says “Points could be at a premium in Happy Valley this week and when you talk about a total in the low 40's [currently 40.5] there's always going to be interest in betting a dog that can run the football.”

Baylor at Oklahoma State -16 ---> -14

Even though Oklahoma State has covered the number in each of its last six overall and in five straight meetings with Baylor, bettors aren’t buying the Cowboys. “Oklahoma State hasn't instilled bettors with a lot of confidence each of the past few weeks,” Fuhrman says. “Sharp money seems intent to bet against them again this week like they did against Missouri and Texas the week before. The Pokes’ wideouts are banged up and Baylor could have some surprises in store entering off a bye but this is still a Bears team with a Swiss cheese defense.”

NFL live odds

Washington at Buffalo -4 ---> -6

The Bills are coming off their bye week as they set out on their annual trip north of the border, while Washington only wishes it could erase last week from history considering all the injuries the Redskins picked up.

“Public money has poured in on Buffalo with all the injuries wreaking havoc on the Redskins offense,” Fuhrman says. “Washington lost Santana Moss, Tim Hightower, and Chris Cooley to major injuries and could find moving the football a challenge. However, I don't think the betting public is factoring in that this game will be played in Toronto and not at Ralph Wilson Stadium.”

Miami at New York Giants -9 ---> -10

The Giants are another club playing on the heels of their bye week and they couldn’t ask for a better matchup to ease back into action. Miami has yet to cover a pointspread this season.

“It's not going to take a lot for people to fade the Dolphins every week from here on out,” Fuhrman says. “The Fish will be a team we're going to struggle getting any public action on the rest of the season and until we inflate the price high enough, public money will fade them with reckless abandon.”

**Udog** · 10-28-2011, 12:57 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Colts (0-7) @ Titans (3-3)-- Both teams coming off horrific losses, Colts losing 62-7 in Superdome, Titans 41-7 at home to Texans in whats was game to decide first place in AFC South. Indy won last five series games (30-28/23-20 LY); the average total in last three meetings is 48.3. Colts are 1-3 as road dogs, losing on foreign soil by 27-7-7-10 points; they've been outscored 73-17 in second half of last four games. Tennessee is 0-2 as favorite this year, 6-9-1 in last 16 games as home favorite; they allowed 14 or less points in their wins (by 13-3-18 points), 16-38-41 in losses. Underdogs are 0-3 vs spread week after playing the Saints. Over is 5-1 in Indy's last six games, 4-1 in Titans' last five.

Jaguars (2-5) @ Texans (4-3)-- Jaguars played their hearts out in 12-7 win over Baltimore Monday night; at one point this season, they were 0-5 vs spread and trailed 17-3 at half in the sixth game at Pittsburgh, then outscored Steelers 10-0 in second half, so they've only allowed seven points in last six quarters of play. Texans allowed 13 or less points in their four wins, 40-25-29 in losses- they're 5-3 in last eight games as home favorite. Home team won eight of last ten series games; Jags lost five of last seven visits here, with all five losses by 13+ points; over last 7+ years, they're 20-11-1 in last 32 games as a road dog. Under is 6-1 in Jacksonville games, 5-2 in Houston games.

Vikings (1-6) @ Panthers (2-5)-- Minnesota led five of seven games at halftime, but they've been outscored 120-39 in second half this year; Vikings are 1-5 vs spread as pre-bye underdog, 6-9-1 in last 16 games as dog overall. Panthers are 2-0 as favorite this year, only two games they've won (covered five of last six). Vikings allowed 39-33 pts in last two games; Arizona is only team they held under 22 points, and are only team Vikings beat. Underdogs are 0-2 vs spread the week after playing Green Bay. NFC South home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 4-1 as underdogs, 3-1 away from home. Over is 5-2 in Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Viking games.

Saints (5-2) @ Rams (0-6)-- This could be ugly, with red-hot Saints coming off of 62-7 win, Rams missing QB Bradford for second week in row, and 1,000's of Saint fans likely to make trip to St Louis to root on their team. Rams are 0-6 vs spread this year, getting outscored 103-16 in first half of last five games, losing home games 31-13/37-7/17-10- they're crippled at CB, bad thing to be against a pass-happy Saint squad that won five of last six games but is just 1-3 vs spread on road, beating Carolina 30-27/Jaguars 23-10. Last three St Louis games stayed under the total. NFC West home underdogs are 1-5-1 vs spread in non-league games. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-4, 1-2 on foreign soil.

Cardinals (1-5) @ Ravens (4-2)-- Baltimore has amazing 33-8-1 record as home favorite vs non-divisional opponents, but ton of pressure on their offense after a hideous showing on Monday in Jacksonville. Ravens are a bully team; all four of their wins this year are by 15+ points- they're 3-0 as home fave this season. Arizona lost its last five games, last two by 34-10/32-20 scores after three real close losses- they're 2-8 as a road dog since Warner retired. Ravens are 10-7 vs spread in game following their last 17 losses; former Cardinal WR Boldin meets up with his old team here. All three Arizona road games stayed under the total. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-11-2, 5-6-1 on the road.

Dolphins (0-6) @ NJ Giants (4-2)-- Second trip to Swamp in last three weeks for Miami, which is 1-2 as road dog, losing by 1-10-18 points- they're winless, but Fish lost two games (Browns/Broncos) in last minute- last week they were the first team since '70 49ers to lose a game they led by 15+ points with 3:00 to play. Hideous home loss to Seattle in Week 5 shows you can't trust Giant club that is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as home favorite- they allowed 27-36-24 points in last three games, but Big Blue won last three post-bye games, scoring 44-34-41 points. NFC East home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 3-2 against the spread.

Redskins (3-3) vs Bills (4-2) (@ Toronto)-- Buffalo is 5-0 in series since losing Super Bowl 26 to Washington, with four of five wins by 14+ points; this game is in Rogers Centre in Toronto, so no home field edge for Bills' squad that is 3-0 in Orchard Park this year, scoring 38-34-31 points. Washington lost both games since its bye, turning ball over seven times (-5) on 21 drives; they're 1-2 on road scoring 17.7 ppg, with only win at winless Rams. Teams are 2-4 SU week after playing Carolina. NFC East teams are 5-3-1 vs spread in non-divisional games this season. Five of six Buffalo games went over total; four of last five Redskin games stayed under.

Lions (4-3) @ Broncos (2-4)-- Home team won six of eight series games; Lions lost last three visits here- their only win in Denver was in 1971. It snowed this week in Denver, so weather could be an issue. Detroit lost its last eight pre-bye games, covering once in last seven; league-wide this year, pre-bye favorites are 4-1. Tebow makes Broncos funky team; they completed less than 50% of their passes in last two games, but they ran ball for 162-183 yards. NFC North clubs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional road games, 2-2 when favored; AFC West home dogs are 2-1. Over is 5-0 in games involving teams that played Miami the week before; last three Detroit games stayed under.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (5-2)-- Pittsburgh covered five of last six as home dog but are 8-12-1 vs spread in game after their last 21 wins. Patriots won last eight post-bye games, 2nd-longest streak ever (Eagles won last 12); they won five of last six visits here, winning 39-26 LY. Steelers are 1-6 vs Brady, but they did win last three weeks, outscoring foes 55-13 in first half- they're 3-0 at home, allowing only three TDs on 29 drives. AFC North home dogs are 4-2 vs spread in non-divisional games. Average total in last seven series games, 52.7. Post-bye road teams are just 2-6 SU so far this season, but all but one were underdogs. Steelers scored 7-10 points in only games they've lost this season.

Browns (3-3) @ 49ers (5-1)-- No one thinks Cleveland is any good, but they've been favored to win five of six games this year; they've scored 17 or less points in five of six games, turning ball over once in all six games (+2 for year). 49ers won/covered last four games prior to bye; challenge now is to keep momentum. SF forced 3+ turnovers in four of six games; they're 2-0 as favorites, winning by 16-45 points when favored. NFC North underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in its non-divisional games. Three of last four Browns games stayed under total. 49ers ran ball for 164-213-203 yards last three games. Cleveland won both games in this series, 20-7/13-12, but series is played once every four years.

Bengals (4-2) @ Seahawks (2-4)-- Huge trap game for Cincy and its rookie QB, they won/covered last three games before bye, and held last four opponents to less than 300 yards total offense. Seattle split last four games, losing 30-28 at home to Falcons, 6-3 at Cleveland- they're 6-27 on third down last two games. Bengals are 2-9-1 in last 12 post-bye games; since '91, they're 0-4 as post-bye favorite. Seattle got seven takeaways (+3) in its two wins, one (-6) in their four losses; they're 9-5-1 in last 15 games as home dog. Home team won four in row and seven of last ten series games, with Bengals losing last three visits here, by 3-17-3 points. All three Cincinnati games went over the total.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (2-4)-- Philly has NFL record, winning last 12 games after a bye, covering six of last eight as post-bye favorite, but they've lost four of last five vs hated Cowboys- five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or less points. Road team is 7-5 in last 12 series games; Dallas won four of last six visits here, winning 20-16/14-13 last two years. Five of six Cowboy games were decided by 4 or less points; Pokes are 1-2 on road, with dogs covering all three games. Philly lost four of last five games before bye- they held teams to 13 points in both wins this year, allowed 35-29-24-31 in losses. Home faves in divisional games are 8-8 this season, 0-2 in NFC East games.

Chargers (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3)-- First rematch of season; Chiefs lost 20-17 at San Diego in Week 3 (+14.5), 7th win in last eight series meetings for Chargers, who've won three of last four visits here, but KC is 3-0 since then, winning as an underdog in all three games. Home underdogs are 7-4 in divisional games so far this season. Chargers are 1-2 on road this year, losing at Patriots/Jets, with a 29-24 win in Denver- they've been outscored 31-6 in second half of their last two games. San Diego is 22-11-3 vs spread in game following its last 36 losses. 6-10 in its last 16 games as road favorite. Kansas Ciy covered its last three tilts as a home underdog. Three of Chiefs' last four games stayed under total.

**Udog** · 10-28-2011, 01:00 AM

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 8

Plenty of chatter and controversy came out of Week 7 in the NFL. Chatter: Does Tim Tebow stink or not? Controversy: Is mouthy, physical Ndamukong Suh a dirty player? So the football gods have intervened for Week 8, with the Broncos hosting the Lions. We’ll get to that game, but let’s kick off this week’s cheat sheet with Sunday’s early contests:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Coming off stunning upset of Baltimore as 10-point home underdogs, so they’ve got confidence for this road start. Texans don’t tend to follow success with success, carrying ATS slides of 1-6 off SU win and 4-11-2 after spread-cover.

Why Texans cover: Arian Foster finally back in full form, having gone ballistic in road blowout of Titans (115 yards rushing, 2 TDs; 119 yards receiving, 1 TD). Houston seventh in NFL at 26 ppg; Jags second-to-last at paltry 12.0. Home team 4-1 ATS last five in this AFC South rivalry.

Total (41): The under is 6-1 Jacksonville’s last seven overall, but total has gone high six of last eight Jags-Texans meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-9)

Why Colts cover: Very hard to make case for winless Indy, after 62-7 beatdown suffered at New Orleans last week. But 9.5 a lot to cover for Titans, who stand 17-42 ATS last 59 laying 3.5 to 10.

Why Titans cover: Should be steaming after embarrassing 41-7 home loss to Houston. Have cashed four of last five after SU or ATS loss, and Indy a shell of itself without Peyton Manning. Colts 2-7 ATS last nine overall.

Total (43.5): Over has hit six straight for Colts and four of five for Titans, but in this rivalry, total has gone low 10 of last 12.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Why Vikings cover: Because they may well have best RB in league, as Adrian Peterson (24 carries, 175 yards, 7.3 ypc)) showed against Packers last week, even in losing effort. Peterson takes pressure off rookie QB Christian Ponder, who actually looked pretty good vs. Green Bay.

Why Panthers cover: Cam Newton, another rookie QB, looks way better than many expected this season and was quite efficient in Week 7 win vs. Redskins (18 of 23, 256 yards, 1 TD, no INTs). Carolina has cashed five straight at home and five of six overall.

Total (47.5): Under 6-1 Vikes’ last seven on highway and 8-1 Panthers’ last nine as chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Why Cardinals cover: That’s a big number for Ravens team that netted just seven points in Week 7 loss to lousy Jacksonville unit. And coming off Monday night games, Baltimore in 2-7 ATS rut the following Sunday.

Why Ravens cover: Coach John Harbaugh should be livid at team’s effort in Jacksonville, and squad should be spitting nails by time Cardinals get to town. Arizona has dropped four in a row ATS (five in a row SU), and Baltimore on ATS upswings of 6-1 after non-cover, 4-1 at home and 8-3 laying points.

Total (43): Under 5-1 in Cards’ last six roadies, but over 5-0 with Ravens off SU loss.

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-10)

Why Dolphins cover: Well, if we must, Giants not much to write home about at home, with current ATS dives of 2-5-1 overall and 4-10-1 laying points.

Why Giants cover: If it’s possible, Miami might actually be worse than 0-6 record. Fish haven’t covered all season (0-5-1) and in fact haven’t cashed a ticket in last nine outings (0-8-1). Dolphins could be minus Matt Moore (ribs), meaning just-signed J.P. Losman could be starting.

Total (43.5): Much like state of franchise, trends are all under for Dolphins, including 5-0 overall (all as a pup) and 18-6 on road, while Giants on over surges of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 giving points and 4-1 after bye.

New Orleans Saints (-13) at St. Louis Rams

Why Saints cover: Just shelled one winless team, whitewashing Colts 62-7. Now they get to play another. Also getting lots of help from man upstairs – Sean Payton relegated to coaches booth with broken leg. Sacrificial Rams have neither won nor covered all year (0-6). St. Louis also 1-5 ATS last six at home dome.

Why Rams cover: Well, Saints have a couple noteworthy negative ATS streaks: 6-14 after SU win, 3-10 vs. losing teams and 1-4 on road.

Total (47.5): Saints trend over (league-best 34.1 ppg) while Rams trend under (league-worst 9.3 ppg). But in this rivalry, over hit six of last eight overall and seven of last eight in Gateway City.

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Why Redskins cover: Mike Shanahan needs win to take some heat off in D.C., after back-to-back SU and ATS losses and mess at QB position. And road not bad spot for Washington, even after loss at Carolina last week – Skins 4-1 ATS last five as visitor and 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as road pup.

Why Bills cover: Bye week has worked out well for Buffalo last six years, as squad has come back to go 5-1 ATS. Bills also good bounceback, at 5-1 ATS last six after pointspread loss and 6-2-1 ATS last nine coming off SU defeat.

Total (45.5): Redskins on boatload of under streaks, but over has hit in seven straight for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bills.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Denver Broncos

Why Lions cover: After consecutive SU and ATS losses – both at home, no less – desperate to prove 5-0 SU and ATS start no fluke. And Ndamukong Suh and Co. will be aching to bust up Tim Tebow. Denver awful against number, at 5-12-1 last 18 overall and meager 7-18-2 last 27 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: Tebow notwithstanding, Denver has no positive ATS trends. But Detroit 3-7-2 ATS last dozen vs. losing teams.

Total (42.5): Both teams tend play to over, which is 5-0-1 Lions’ last six roadies, 4-0 Broncs’ last four at home and 11-1 Denver’s last 12 against winning teams.

New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady and his offense had two weeks to prep for Steelers. And Bill Belichick’s troops own this rivalry SU (7-2 last nine) and ATS (8-2 last 10 overall, 6-1 last seven in Pittsburgh), including 39-26 road win last November getting 4½.

Why Steelers cover: Defending AFC champs solid in rare role of home ‘dog, cashing six of last seven in that spot. QB Ben Roethlisberger putting up Brady-esque numbers, with nine TD passes and one INT over last three games, including five-TD effort vs. Tennessee in Week 5 and three-TD outing last week at Arizona.

Total (50.5): With these two offenses, pretty hard not to see this game going high. Over on tears of 9-3 for Pats on highway, 8-3 for Steelers overall, 7-1 in this rivalry and 5-0 when Steelers host Pats.

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-9)

Why Browns cover: Not much to tout about this middling, non-descript Cleveland team, but Niners are coming off bye week, and in that spot, San Fran on 1-5-1 ATS dive.

Why 49ers cover: Haven’t lost against oddsmakers all season (5-0-1 ATS) and coming off big road win vs. previously unbeaten Detroit. Somehow, Jim Harbaugh getting real offensive production (27.8 ppg, fifth in league) from squad that averaged just 19.1 ppg last year (24th).

Total (38.5): Under on 5-1 surge with Browns a ‘dog, but Niners on several over stretches, including 6-2 overall, 5-0 by the Bay and a stout 13-3 off the bye.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Bengals cover: Seattle is thinner than Lindsay Lohan at QB, with banged-up starter Tarvaris Jackson –often awful even when healthy – and backup Charlie Whitehurst. Cincy among league’s best lately at betting window, at 8-1 ATS last nine.

Why Seahawks cover: As bad as they are, have cashed four straight at home – all as underdog. And Cincy apparently allergic to chalk, at 7-21 ATS last 28 in that spot.

Total (37.5): Pretty low number makes over worth looking at. Total has gone high five of last six for Bengals and 13 of last 17 for Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Why Cowboys cover: First off, how often can matchup of 3-3 team (Dallas) and 2-4 team (Philly) be a marquee contest? Such is state of NFL right now. Cowboys might have uncovered next great RB in DeMarco Murray (253 yards last week). Dallas thrives as pup, covering seven in row overall and five straight in roadies, and they’ve beaten Philly at betting window last five meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Can’t afford loss and surely want to stick it to NFC East rival, having dropped four of last five to Pokes SU. Eagles rested up after bye and on 4-1 ATS uptick following week off.

Total (50.5): It’s a big number to top, but both teams have offensive weapons to put up points. Betting Dallas to go high has been great move lately, with squad on over streaks of 16-5 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 7-1 after spread-cover and 6-1 after SU win. That said, Eagles 13-3 to the under last 16 after bye.

San Diego Chargers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why Chargers cover: Snatched defeat from jaws of victory last week at Jets, so should be plenty riled up against AFC West rival. Chiefs blew out Raiders on road last week 28-0, but K.C. doesn’t follow up well on such routs – 1-4 ATS last five after win of more than 14 points.

Why Chiefs cover: Home team and home fans surely amped up for “Monday Night Football” appearance. Have beaten bookies four straight games, starting by cashing as huge 14½-point dog at San Diego in 20-17 loss. Plus, Chargers and Arrowhead not exactly like pizza and beer, with Bolts just 4-9-1 ATS last 14 trips to Kansas City.

Total (44): Under has hit in five straight home games for Todd Haley’s troops; over 19-6-2 Chargers’ last 27 as road chalk.

**Udog** · 10-28-2011, 01:03 AM

NFL

Week 8

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NFL Total Bias: Week 8 over/under picks
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He’s the odd man out, the black sheep, the ugly duckling. He is Philip Rivers, quarterback of the San Diego Chargers.

Sure, the Chargers sit 4-2 straight up and lead the AFC West by a game over Oakland, but you wouldn’t know it by the flack they’re catching right now – and by “they” I really mean Rivers.

It seems crazy when you think of it logically. Again, the Chargers lead their division and own the NFL’s No. 8 total offense, not to mention the No. 7 passing attack.

Yet Rivers was forced to defend himself repeatedly this week and deny that he is playing injured. Such is life in the Year of the Quarterback.

The whole problem here stems from preseason predictions. Before Week 1, there was a lot of talk that Rivers could top 5,000 passing yards and challenge Dan Marino’s single-season passing record.

Considering what he did last season, it was certainly possible. With the 4,710 yards and 30 touchdowns he produced in 2010 still dancing in their heads, fantasy poolies and bettors drooled over the possibilities.

Instead, Rivers heads into Week 8’s date with the Chiefs at Arrowhead with seven touchdowns, nine interceptions and 1,715 yards passing – not exactly what everyone was hoping for, especially when every other Joe Quarterback was firing for 300 yards a game earlier this year.

Meanwhile, with public perception of an already popular team heading into this season at an all-time high, San Diego supporters have taken it on the chin as the Chargers sputter along at 2-4 against the number.

Again, it’s all about the perception of this team.

Rivers hasn’t been as sharp as he would have liked. He has missed some throws and at times it does look like he’s missing a bit of zip on the ball. But let’s not go overboard. Superfreak Antonio Gates has started just two games, while wideouts Malcom Floyd and have Vincent Jackson have been banged up too.

Plus, the way Ryan Mathews has been running the ball, the Chargers don’t need to sling it around like they did last year. It’s a different team and if the team can get healthy while cruising along at the top of the division, San Diego bettors will be happy to have this offensive balance.

It may be Halloween in Arrowhead on Sunday, but let’s not burn Rivers and the Chargers at the stake just yet.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (3.5, 44.5)

The Chargers are going to have a tough time kicking their attack up another level at Arrowhead with the Chiefs surging.

It looks as though Gates will be good to go again this week, though it’s pretty obvious he isn’t 100 percent. He’ll be a major weapon in the red zone, but we can’t expect his usual explosiveness just yet.

And if you haven’t noticed, the once left-for-dead Chiefs are pulling their Walking Dead routine, terrorizing the rest of the NFL.

They won their third straight game last week, devouring the Oakland Raiders 28-0 in one of the ugliest games you’ll ever see. They’re now back to .500 after losing to Buffalo, Detroit and Green Bay to start the season – not exactly a cakewalk in the bunch there.

San Diego will need its fifth-ranked total defense to come up big.

Pick: Under

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-6, 46)

Just when everything was looking up for the Redskins, reality came crashing down on Mike Shanahan’s bunch.

Rex Grossman still isn’t an NFL starting quarterback. Tim Hightower can carry the load as a starting running back. No. 1 wide receiver Santana Moss is, indeed, 89 years old.

Shocking, right?

Now that the dust has settled, they’re left with John Beck under center, a pile of hit-or-miss running backs in the backfield and Jabar Gaffney as their top wide receiver. If tight end Fred Davis wasn’t around they’d be hard-pressed to put together a few first downs.

Buffalo has been killing it for over bettors all season but they may have to top the total themselves this week. Plus, the game’s in Toronto and it doesn’t sound like anybody is happy to be heading north of the border.

Can’t blame ‘em. I’m Canadian and I hate Toronto too.

Pick: Under

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (3, 52)

I look forward to the Patriots’ game off the bye every year like a kid planning his Halloween costume in July.

New England isn’t the type of team that takes a while to warm up after a week off. You just know Brady and Belichick have been huddled together over their playbooks in a dimly lit room in Gillette Stadium's basement, their evil cackles echoing throughout the corridors of the facility.

This is going to be the game of the week and the Steelers are going to have to have some tricks up their sleeves just to keep it close.

Pick: Over

Last week: 2-1
Season record: 11-10

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**Udog** · 10-28-2011, 01:06 AM

NFL

Week 8

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NFL betting: Best and worst second-half teams
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When a team trails 34-7 at halftime you expect a better second-half performance, if only because the players are professional, they don’t like getting embarrassed, and the winning side inserts backups.

That didn’t happen Sunday in New Orleans. The Colts, getting 6.5 points at halftime, got outscored 28-0 en route to a 62-7 humiliation.

To many, it looked like the Colts quit. Veteran center Jeff Saturday said it’s hard for him to judge his teammates’ effort.

“The bottom line is that we’re in a wins and losses game. If you don’t win, then it really makes no difference,” Saturday told the News and Tribune. “We didn’t play well. No matter if we played with effort or didn’t play with effort, we got beat up and got beat. I’ve never met anybody on our team who hasn’t given his 100 percent, and tried as hard as he possibly could. I know I do.”

Saturday also promised that the Colts are “going to fist-fight until the day ends. I’ve got faith in the guys that I play with, I’ve got faith in the coaching staff that we’re going to put together a good plan and we’ll come back against Tennessee and put forth a good effort.”

That remains to be seen. We do know, however, that the Colts are one of the worst second-half teams against the spread. Their 2-5 ATS mark is better than only the Giants (1-3-2), Miami (1-5), Minnesota (1-6) and Houston (1-6).

Cincinnati (5-1), Seattle (5-1) and San Francisco (4-1-1) own the best second-half ATS marks. (See chart below).

Looking at the Week 8 schedule, we see some opportunities for second-half wagers:

Cleveland (2-3-1) at San Francisco (4-1-1)

San Diego (2-4) at Kansas City (4-2)

New Orleans (5-2) at St. Louis (3-3)

Tennessee (3-3) at Indianapolis (2-5)

ATS Records, Halftime Lines

Cincinnati: 5-1

Seattle: 5-1

San Francisco: 4-1-1

Detroit: 5-2

New Orleans: 5-2

Green Bay: 5-2

New England: 4-2

Denver: 4-2

Kansas City: 4-2

Baltimore: 3-2-1

Buffalo: 3-2-1

Dallas: 3-2-1

Atlanta: 4-3

Tampa Bay: 4-3

Pittsburgh: 4-3

Tennessee: 3-3

Washington: 3-3

St. Louis: 3-3

Philadelphia: 3-3

N.Y. Jets: 3-3-1

Carolina: 3-4

Arizona: 2-3-1

Cleveland: 2-3-1

San Diego: 2-4

Oakland: 2-4-1

Chicago: 2-5

Jacksonville: 2-5

Indianapolis: 2-5

N.Y. Giants: 1-3-2

Miami: 1-5

Minnesota: 1-6

Houston: 1-6

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**Udog** · 10-30-2011, 12:23 AM

Where the action is: NFL Week 8 lines moves

It’s been a quiet week for lines moves in the NFL. Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, believes that many of the big spreads on the Week 8 board are keeping bettors at bay.

“We’re starting to put these spreads high enough that when people come to the counter, they’re second guessing about laying that many points,” he says. “It’s pretty easy to get a back door cover in games like those.”

Rood points to games like Miami at New York (-9.5) and Cleveland at San Francisco (-9) as examples of these tricky pointspreads.

However, there have been some line adjustments heading into Sunday. Here’s a look at those games and their odds

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos – Open: +3, Move +1.5

According to Rood this line was set with Lions QB Matthew Stafford out of the lineup. He’s dealing with an ankle injury and according to Rood’s sources, is still questionable at best. However, if Stafford does suit up and go Sunday, the line will defiantly move again.

“It will be interesting to see how (the Lions) respond,” says Rood. “They’re coming off back-to-back losses and are on the road facing this adversity.”

Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills – Open: -4, Move, -6.5, Move: -5

Rood says sharps came in hard on Washington when the line moved to 6.5, and believes that could be too many points, considering this is a neutral-site game in Toronto. While it’s in the books as a Bills home game, the players have voiced their unhappiness about playing north of the border.

“I don’t know why they would do that and just alienate the city of Toronto,” says Rood. “They’re not making any friends doing that.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +2.5, Move: +3, Move: +1

Rood took some small bets on Seattle before a steam move on the Bengals put the spread at the field goal. Then the buy-backs came, moving this line to +1 as of Saturday afternoon. Rood believes the home-field edge and some healthy weapons are winning over Seattle backers.

“Most of this number is home field, but Marshawn Lynch and Tarvaris Jackson are expected to be healthy,” says Rood. “And you’ve got a rookie quarterback (Andy Dalton) going up against a very tough road spot.”

**Udog** · 10-30-2011, 12:26 AM

NFL

Week 8

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NFL betting weather report: Week 8
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Find out how weather will impact your bets during Week 8 of the NFL season:

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-9.5, 41.5)

It will be a brisk day in the Big Apple, with temperatures in the low 40s and winds, blowing NNW, at speeds of up to 14 mph at MetLife Stadium.

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (+1, 37.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Seattle, with an 88 percent chance of showers.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/30 - 10/31)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/30 - 10/31)

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