NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/18 - 10/22)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, October 21

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Rutgers at Louisville: What bettors need to know
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-2, 39.5)

THE STORY: Rutgers looks to stay on the inside track toward a Big East title when it travels to Louisville on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights currently sit atop the standings with a 2-0 league mark, just the second time they have won their first two Big East games in 21 seasons in the conference.

TV: ESPN2

LINE MOVES: Louisville opened as a 1.5-point home underdog but has been bet up, flipping the spread to -2. The total has hovered around its opening number of 40 points.

ABOUT RUTGERS (5-1, 2-0 Big East, 5-1 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have made a living off opponents’ mistakes thus far, leading the nation in turnover margin (2.17). Rutgers is tied for the national lead with 24 takeaways, ranking second with 14 interceptions and third with 10 fumbles recovered. The defense has been depleted recently, however, with LB Marvin Booker (knee) and DL Michael Larrow (ankle) both lost for the season last week against Navy.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2-4, 0-1, 3-3 ATS): The Cardinals let a golden opportunity slip away in their Big East opener last weekend, giving up 18 unanswered points in the second half of a 25-16 setback at Cincinnati. QB Will Stein (621 yards passing, 5 TD, 1 INT), who had missed two games with an injured shoulder, made a brief return against the Bearcats in place of Terry Bridgewater (709 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT). Both are expected to play Friday.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The road team has won each of the last two meetings in lopsided fashion — Louisville rolled to a 40-13 victory last season, while Rutgers earned a 34-14 win in 2010.

2. Excluding the three-point thrillers in 2006 and 2007, the average margin of victory in games between the two schools since 1986 is 37.2 points.

3. Rutgers is third in the nation with 51 blocked kicks since 2002, including four this season. LB Jamal Merrell has three blocks in 2011, including two at Syracuse.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
* Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

PREDICTION: Rutgers 27, Louisville 17. According to head coach Charlie Strong, the Cardinals are struggling with confidence right now —and that seems unlikely to improve against the surging, opportunistic Scarlet Knights.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, October 21

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West Virginia at Syracuse: What bettors need to know
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West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 59)

THE STORY: The bye week has been about the only thing recently slowing down Geno Smith, who leads the prolific offense of No. 15 West Virginia into a prime-time showdown Friday in Syracuse. The Mountaineers have scored 98 points in their last two games with Smith throwing for 688 yards and seven touchdowns. The junior could keep piling on numbers against a Syracuse defense that ranks 112th against the pass. The Orange will need Ryan Nassib to counter every punch, but the senior has struggled in his two games before last week’s bye, throwing for less than 200 yards in each and tossing three interceptions.

TV: ESPN.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 14.5-point road favorite in the Carrier Dome. However, money on the home side has the spread down to 13.5. The total has climbed from 57.5 to 59 points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 1-0 BIG EAST, 3-3 ATS): The Mountaineers four-wide sets will spread an Orange defense lacking in confidence. Syracuse has been eaten up by game-changing targets, allowing a 100-yard receiver in each of its last three games. Smith has three weapons on the outside in Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin and Ivan McCartney, who all rank in the top four in the Big East in receiving yards. Each has helped WVU produce a whopping 19 plays of 30 yards or more. Syracuse conceded three such plays for touchdowns in a narrow win over Tulane two weeks ago.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (4-2, 0-1 BIG EAST, 2-4 ATS): Nassib finished September as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, but secondaries have taken away his top threat in Van Chew. The sure-handed receiver has just two catches for 20 yards and no touchdowns in the last two games after grabbing three scores in the first three games. If Nassib can’t find Chew in this one, he’ll have to once again turn to the ground game to keep his counterpart Smith on the sidelines. The Orange ran the ball 40 times for a season-high 170 yards last time out in a 37-34 road win over Tulane.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Syracuse stunned West Virginia 19-14 last year, when Smith was sacked five times and threw three interceptions in the first half.

2. The Orange haven’t won at home in the series since 2001.

3. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones returns after missing five games with a lower-body injury. The redshirt senior, who recorded 9.5 tackles for loss in 2010, should help a pass-rush that ranks seventh in the conference and failed to take down the quarterback in its last game.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 38, Syracuse 28 – The bye week really aided the Orange’s injuries in the secondary and it could keep Smith in check in the first half. After all, WVU has trailed in all six games this season. Smith, though, should be able to make just enough big plays late to earn the road win.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Saturday, October 22

Saturday's best games

Illinois lost first game last week, getting outrushed 211-116; they're -6 in turnovers in Big Dozen games (2-1) with wins by 3-21 points. Purdue is 1-1 in league play, running ball for 379 yards since getting crushed 38-10 by Notre Dame three weeks ago- they're 5-7-1 in last 13 games as home dogs. Illini is 1-4 in last five games as road favorites. Favorites are 5-3 in Big Dozen games when spread is single digits. Four of Illinois' six lined games stayed under the total.

Underdog covered five of last six Cincinnati-South Florida games, with Bearcats winning four of last five- they won 34-17/38-33 in last couple visits here. Cincinnati won its last four games, allowing 11 ppg, but none of victims are any good- they're 0-5 as road underdogs under Jones. USF scored 17-10 points in losing last two games, both on road- they're 3-5 as home favorites under Holtz. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Big East conference games with single digit spread.

Clemson is 7-0, covering their last five games; they're 4-0 as favorites in Death Valley this year, 10-5 overall under Swinney. Tigers won five of last seven games vs North Carolina, with faves 6-3 vs spread in series; Tar Heels lost three of last four visits here, this is their first visit since '06. Carolina is 5-2 but 1-2 in ACC, allowing 35-30 points in its losses; they're 6-3 in last nine games as road underdogs. Home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in ACC games.

Cowboys had big win at Texas this week; they've covered nine games in row as road favorites, but they've also allowed 23+ points in each of last four games. Missouri is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road- they've played three stiffs at home; Tigers are 2-0 as underdogs this year, 6-7 as home dogs the last decade. Underdogs are 4-3 SU in last seven OSU-Mizzou games, as five of seven games were decided by 7 or less points. Cowboys are an amazing +13 in turnovers over last four games, with 17 takeaways.

Cal allowed 31-43-30 points in losing last three games, outscored 49-12 in second half; they're playing home games in San Francisco this year, as their stadium in Berkeley is being refurbished- they've covered 14 of 17 as a home favorite (1-0 so far this year). Utah (+3) beat Bears 37-27 in Poinsettia Bowl in '09; this is teams' first meeting as Pac-12 rivals. Utes would be 3-0 as road dogs this year, if not for blocked FG/TD by USC on last play of that game. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in games where spread is less than 20.

Kansas State won last four Saturdays as an underdog, now are favored in rivalry game at Lawrence, where they won 59-7 (-3) LY, their first win in last four visits, and just second cover in last 13 tries as road favorites. Kansas is horrible, allowing 57 ppg during 4-game losing streak; even in their last win, they gave up 42 points. Jayhawks are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home underdog, 1-1 this year. Big 12 double digit favorites are 2-4 so far this season.

Oregon State won five of last seven games vs Washington State; Coogs covered once in last four games as series favorite. Both teams are 1-2 in Pac-12 games; OSU is allowing 29.7 ppg in league games, WSU 33 ppg. Road teams are 6-4 vs spread in Pac-12 games with single digit spread, but this game is in Seattle, but I guess Wazzu is still home side. Last three Beaver games went over total; last three Coog games stayed under. Oregon State was outscored 59-31 in second half of last three games.

Penn State won its last four games vs Northwestern, last three by 14-21-26 points; they won four of last five visits here, but only one of the four was by more than 5 points, as dogs covered four of the five games. Lions won last five games but covered only one of the five, with three wins by 6 or less points- they're 9-3 in last twelve games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Wildcats are 12-8 in last 20 games as a home underdog. In LY's game, Northwestern (+6.5) led 21-0, wound up losing 35-21.

Notre Dame (+4.5) beat USC 20-16 LY, its first win in last nine tries vs Trojans; USC won its last four visits here-- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Irish won last four games, scoring 35.8 ppg; they ran ball for 287-266 yards last two weeks. ND is 2-1 as home favorite this year, but since '03, they're 14-26-2. Over last decade, USC is 6-3 as road underdogs. Pac-10 non-conference road underdogs are 3-7 vs spread so far this season.

Southern Miss won 28-7/28-12 in its two C-USA meetings with SMU, but teams haven't met since '08; Eagles are 10-8 as home favorites under Fedora, 1-1 this year. SMU is 16-12-1 in last 29 games as road dog; they won at TCU three weeks ago. C-USA home favoritea are 4-7 vs spread in conference play. Mustangs won last five games despite a -7 turnover ratio in those games- they scored 42-40-38 points last three games, but Southern Miss scored 30-48-63 in winning its last three games.

Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, winning last three by combined score of 110-42; favorites covered Huskies' last three visits to the Farm. Cardinal won/covered all six games, with 45-19 win vs UCLA closest game they've played. 5-1 Washington's only loss this year was 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska, so they'll compete here; they've covered last five games, are 4-2 in last six games as road dog. Pac-10 home favorites of 15+ points are 4-1 vs spread this season.

LSU has three key guys suspended here, Auburn is starting different QB so lot of issues on both sides. Home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in SEC games this year; SEC favorites of 14+ points are 7-1 this year. Auburn lost last five visits here, going 2-3 vs spread- they had 440 rushing yards in 24-17 (-5.5) home win vs LSU LY. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. LSU covered four of last five games, winning its last four games by 26+ points, but Mathieu being out is big loss.

Home side won last six Wisconsin-Michigan State games, as underdogs covered four of last five series games, with three of last four decided by 8 or less points. Badgers lost last three visits here by 10-1-35 points; the average total in last four series games played here, 58.5. Spartans beat Ohio State/Michigan last two games, which doesn't happen much; they are just 2-5-2 in last nine games as home dog. Wisconsin is 8-6-1 as road favorite under Bielema; this is their first true road game this year. Single digit favorites are 4-2 in Big Dozen games so far this year.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 22

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Wisconsin at Michigan State: What bettors need to know
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Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (+7, 49)

THE STORY: Last season, it came down to one-loss Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State to determine the Big Ten champion. While the new conference championship game will make things a bit clearer this time, the No. 4 Badgers (sixth in the BCS standings) would still like to exact revenge from the host Spartans on Saturday. Michigan State handed Wisconsin its only regular-season setback in 2010 and kept them out of the national championship picture. No. 15 Michigan State is upset-minded again this year after sending its seniors out undefeated against rival Michigan with a win last weekend. The Spartans' pass defense is the best in the nation while Wisconsin features the most efficient quarterback in the country in Russell Wilson to go along with a power running game.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com

WEATHER: Game-time tempeatures will dip into the low 40s at East Lansing, otherwise skied will be clear and winds will remain around 5 mph.

LINE MOVES: The Badgers opened as 9.5-road favorites and have been bet down to a touchdown. The total has climbed from its opening of 47.5 to 49.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (6-0, 2-0 Big Ten, 5-0-1 ATS): The Badgers lead the nation in scoring offense at 50.2 points and rank third in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 9.7 points. Wilson is completing 74.2 percent of his passes and has at least one touchdown pass in 30 straight games. He is helped by running back Montee Ball, who is tied for first in the nation with 17 touchdowns. Wisconsin has won each of its first six games by at least 30 points, the longest such streak to start the season for an FBS team since at least 1950.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (5-1, 2-0, 4-2 ATS): The Spartans aren’t quite as explosive offensively as the Badgers but they make up for it on the other side of the ball, where they rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense. Their lone loss came at Notre Dame on Sept. 17 and they have opened the Big Ten slate with consecutive victories over Ohio State and Michigan.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Wisconsin leading receiver Nick Toon missed last week's game with a foot injury, but is probable to play Saturday.

2. The Big Ten suspended Michigan State defensive end William Gholston for Saturday's game. Gholston was called for a pair of personal fouls against Michigan last week, one of which came after he punched offensive lineman Taylor Lewan.

3. The Badgers have won nine straight Big Ten games by an average of 29.5 points.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Badgers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Spartans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 45, Michigan State 20 - The Spartans are strong against the pass, so Wilson and company will be content to run their way to victory.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 8 line moves

We’ve been tracking line moves all week on the college football board. Find out which odds are moving and why from Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas.

Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks – Open: +14.5, Move: +10

Despite a 6-0 record, sharps are fading KSU when it clashes with state rival KU Saturday. The Jayhawks are coming off a tough outing against Oklahoma, losing 47-17.

“In these state rivalries, points are worth more,” says Rood. “Despite the records, these guys get up to play each other.”

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: +6.5, Move: +3.5

Rood says that of all the Top 25 teams, Illinois gets the least amount of loves from bettors. He took some very strong action after moving the line to 4.5 and it currently sits at Illinois -4.

“There will be a lot of money on Illinois Saturday, but I’d be hard pressed to move this line back up to 4.5 with such a strong opinion from the sharp bettors.”

Marshall Thundering Herd at Houston Cougars – Open: -20, Move: -23.5

It’s been a slow steady climb with limit plays coming in on the Cougars. Rood says a high-powered offense at home is very attractive to bettors, as well as the 20-point spread.

“The bigger the spread, the more eager they are to lay the points this year,” he says.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans – Open: +9.5, Move: +7

Sharps jumped all over MSU to bring this spread down to a touchdown. Rood says there is a ton of money coming in on the Badgers at this discount spread, but it's not the sharps buying back on Wisconsin, as many would believe.

“This is getting the most action on the board this week,” says Rood. “Everyone is playing Wisconsin with both fists right now. “

Colorado State Rams at UTEP Miners – Open: -7, Move: -10

There are a ton of injuries in the Rams’ trenches, with bodies missing on the offensive and defensive lines. However, Rood believes there is far less behind his move.

“It just feels like a pure opinion play,” he says. “UTEP can put up some points. Sharps think it’s off and that it’s a bad number.”

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 22

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College football betting weather report: Week 8
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Mother Nature takes it easy on the college kids Saturday. Find out which games will be impacted by weather in Week 8 of the NCAAF schedule.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Buffalo Bulls (+14, 62.5)

Winds are expected to blow at speeds of up to 11 mph, from sideline to sideline at UB Stadium. Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 50s.

New Mexico Lobos at TCU Horned Frogs (-43.5, 62.5)

The forecast in Forth Worth is calling for winds reaching speed of 11 mph, blowing south from corner to corner at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 61.5)

Winds will reach speed of 13 mph, blowing NNE, from end zone to end zone at Sun Life Field.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-28.5, 70.5)

There are thunderstorms in the forecast for Norman Saturday. There is also a 33 percent chance of rain, expected to hit in the second half of this Big 12 battle.

Oregon State Beavers at Washington State Cougars (-3, 59)

Showers are in the forecast for Seattle, with a 64 percent chance of rain. Winds will also reach speeds of 15 mph, blowing south from end zone to end zone, at Century Link Field.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Warriors (-12.5, 57.5)

Believe it or not, there is rain expected for the second half of this WAC battle in Aiea.


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