The Bum's World Series Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers try to clinch first World Series title


TEXAS RANGERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS


World Series Game 6 - Texas leads series 3-2
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -115, Texas +105, Total: 7.5

Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia has been outstanding at home throughout his career, and St. Louis needs him to deliver in a do-or-die game when they host the Rangers for Game 6 of the World Series on Wednesday night.

Garcia is 15-9 with a 2.22 ERA in 33 career Busch Stadium starts, including seven shutout innings against the Rangers in Game 2 (closer Jason Motte blew the game in the ninth). Texas counters with starter Colby Lewis who has been strong for a second straight postseason, but Garcia outpitched him in Game 2. Plus, the Rangers have struggled against left-handed pitching all postseason, posting a .190 team batting average and .522 OPS against lefties. With the money line close to even despite the Cards’ home field advantage, ST. LOUIS is the pick.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Cards:

ST. LOUIS is 24-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game this season. The average score was ST. LOUIS 5.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*).

ST. LOUIS is 29-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. The average score was ST. LOUIS 4.6, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA during the regular season) is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA over seven career postseason starts. After making all his playoff starts at home in 2010, all three of his starts during this year’s postseason have been on the road. He held the Cardinals to one run over 6.2 innings in Game 2 in St. Louis, but he gave up three home runs in his previous two starts, and Detroit tagged him for four runs in 5.2 innings in the ALCS.

Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA during the regular season) has a 1.93 ERA over three home postseason starts, striking out 15 while walking three over 18.2 innings. But the Cards lost two of those three games, as they’ve scored only six runs during those 18.2 innings. Garcia also has a career 1.71 ERA in four home starts against American League teams.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals World Series Game 6

UPDATE: Game 6 of the World Series has been postponed due to rain, and is now scheduled to be played Thursday (8:05 p.m. ET). Neither manager has indicated any change to their starting pitchers, with the Rangers still expected to send Colby Lewis to the mound against St. Louis left-hander Jaime Garcia.

The Series tied two games apiece and Game 5 knotted with the same 2-2 score in the eighth inning, the Texas Rangers needed a big hit.

David Murphy's infield grounder, just evading the glove of St. Louis Cardinals reliever Marc Rzepczynski's glove, doesn't really fit the conventional definition of a 'big hit.' Indeed, Mike Napoli's ensuing double brought home the deciding runs. But Murphy's worm burner back through the mound proved big enough for the Rangers who now hold a 3-2 lead in the 2011 World Series following Monday's 4-2 victory over the Cardinals.

Texas can wrap up its first MLB title when the Fall Classic shifts back to St. Louis for Game 6 on Wednesday (8:05 p.m. ET). That is assuming Mother Nature cooperates, more on that later.

The mound duel for the sixth game will be a rematch of Game 2 starters, Colby Lewis of the Rangers and Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia. St. Louis is the slight favorite with the Redbirds on a consensus -115 line. Wednesday's total is 7½, the 'under' costing a few pennies extra at -115.

The Series has all but defied the odds with four of the five games staying 'under' the totals. After both Texas and St. Louis came out of their LCS matchups seemingly clubbing everything thrown at them, this World Series was not supposed to be a stage for pitchers to shine.

But that has been the case, and it was especially true when Lewis and Garcia met in Game 2. Garcia hurled seven scoreless frames, striking out seven would-be Texas hitters and surrendering just three safeties, all of them singles. Lewis just about matched Garcia's effort, falling an out shy of seven innings and giving up just a run on four hits.

St. Louis nursed the 1-0 lead into the top of the ninth before the Rangers finally got off the schneid. It took a couple of singles, a risky stolen base by Ian Kinsler, a rare fielding miscue by Albert Pujols and two sac flies, but Texas pulled off the 2-1 victory.

The two lineups have seen Lewis and Garcia now, and it will be intriguing to see how any of the hitters adjust. Making it all the more interesting is Lewis will be the first right-handed starter the Cardinals have seen since Game 2, and Garcia the first southpaw starter the Rangers have faced since the same game.

There are enough hitters in both lineups to quickly turn Game 6 into a plate crossing festival, but the two that might hold the key on Wednesday are Michael Young and Lance Berkman. Young's double started Texas' 8th-inning rally in Game 5, and he went 1-for-3 against Garcia in Game 2, the first and only time he has faced the young Cardinals pitcher.

Lewis has owned Berkman in the past, albeit a very small sample. Still, 0-for-10 with six strikeouts is enough history for my money, especially since all but one at bat in that mix is from the past two seasons. That includes 0-for-3 with two K's in Game 2.

It's obvious that Rangers manager Ron Washington is no longer going to let his hurlers pitch to Pujols. It's also obvious that St. Louis manager Tony La Russa needs to tell his runners to quit trying to steal second with Phat Albert at the plate. That puts a little extra burden on Berkman, as well as Matt Holliday, to break through hitting behind Pujols in the lineup.

Gary Cederstrom is finally going to get to work the plate in a World Series game after being on the job for 23 seasons. He was in line to work Game 5 of the 2005 Fall Classic, but the White Sox finished their broom job vs. the Astros the night before. Cederstrom was 20-12-2 to the 'under' this past regular season, finishing on a 3-0 run below the totals.

His 'under' streak was stretched to 4-0 when he worked Game 5 of the NLDS earlier this month in Philadelphia, a 1-0 win for Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals against Roy Halladay and the Phils.

Rain? During the MLB playoffs? Surely you jest. No, it's not a joke, and pardon me for calling you Shirley. There's an 80 percent chance of rain during the day in St. Louis on Wednesday, and the likelihood only decreases to 70 percent when the evening arrives. Game time temps will be in the mid-to-low 50s with a 12-15 mph wind from the NNW ( in from left).

Should Game 6 be postponed, Thursday and Friday look fairly dry in the St. Louis area, though the thermometer will dip into the 40s during both evenings. A Wednesday postponement would also open both managers to bringing back their Games 1 and 5 starters on short rest in a potential Game 7 on Friday.

For the moment, Game 7 is set for Thursday night with Washington already confirming he would send Matt Harrison to the hill. La Russa and the Cardinals remain undecided, and you've got to think that everyone but Garcia is a candidate.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/24/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/23/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1355 Detail
10/20/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/19/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-*3-*0 0.00% -*1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
10/11/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 33-*25-*2 56.90% +4700

Thursday, October 27
Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -114 500

St. Louis - Under 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at St. Louis
The Rangers look to close out the series and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus a left-handed starter. Texas is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 961-962: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.134; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.609
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-100); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 27

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TEXAS (106 - 71) at ST LOUIS (99 - 79) - 8:05 PM
COLBY LEWIS (R) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-78 (+4.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 75-50 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 78-56 (+9.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 47-32 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ST LOUIS is 40-33 (+7.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 29-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 100-80 (+3.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
GARCIA is 18-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 53-37 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 89-66 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 107-70 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 32-24 (+11.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 200-169 (+34.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
TEXAS is 101-65 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 79-45 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 25-29 (-15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 3-2 (+0.2 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LEWIS is 0-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. TEXAS since 1997
GARCIA is 0-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.571.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 27

World Series - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TEX Leads 3-2
TEXAS at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET FOX
LEWIS: 12-18 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest
GARCIA: STL 24-9 if bullpen pitched 1 or less inning last game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 27

Lewis is 1-1, 2.95 in three postseason starts; this is his 7th consecutive start on road. Garcia has a 1.93 RA in three home playoff starts, but the Redbirds lost four of his last five starts overall. Cardinals scored 22 runs in this World Series, but 16 of them came in Game 3; they're 4-3 at home in playoffs, Rangers are 3-4 on road; over is 4-3 in those games. Under is 4-2-1 in St Louis home tilts. Redbirds scored 3 or less runs in four of five series games. Texas is 8-1 when it allows 3 or less runs in playoffs this fall, 2-4 when it allows more. NL park, no DH in this game. In this postseason, St Louis is 6-2 if game goes over, 2-5 if it stays under.




MLB

Thursday, October 27

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. ST. LOUIS
Texas is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
Texas is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
St. Louis is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games at home


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MLB

Thursday, October 27

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Rangers at Cardinals - Game 6: What bettors need to know
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Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)

Texas leads series 3-2

THE STORY: The Texas Rangers go after their first World Series title Wednesday in Game 6 against the host St. Louis Cardinals. Texas recorded a 4-2 victory on Monday with postseason hero Mike Napoli smacking the go-ahead two-run double to take a 3-2 lead in the series. Napoli has nine RBIs in 13 at-bats in the series and is only the second player in World Series history with four multi-RBI games. The other is Mickey Mantle for the 1960 New York Yankees. Game 7, if necessary, is scheduled for Thursday in St. Louis.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: The forecast in St. Louis is calling for a 94 percent chance of showers and winds, blowing NNW from the third base line to first base line, at speeds of up to 11 mph. Those winds will change to blowing north, in from center towards home plate.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers RH Colby Lewis (0-0, 1.35 ERA) vs. Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Lewis is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three postseason starts. He gave up just one run and four hits in 6 2/3 innings while taking a no-decision in Game 2. Nick Punto had two of the hits.

Garcia pitched seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in Game 2 but didn’t get the win due to Jason Motte’s ninth-inning implosion. He struck out seven and walked one. Garcia is 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA in four postseason starts.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: St. Louis left 12 runners on base in Game 5. Matt Holliday reached base three times on a single and two walks but left five runners on base the two times he was retired. Albert Pujols was walked intentionally three times and went 0-for-2. Yadier Molina had three hits and drove in his fifth run of the series. Allen Craig was caught stealing twice to become the first player thrown out multiple times in a World Series game since the Yankees’ Billy Martin in 1955.

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Napoli has driven in nearly half of Texas’ 19 runs in the series. Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre hit solo homers for the Rangers’ other runs. Beltre is batting .381 in the series while Moreland is batting just .111 in 27 postseason at-bats. Michael Young is hitting .211 in the series with three of his four hits going for extra bases. Josh Hamilton is just 3-for-19 in the series and homerless in 60 postseason at-bats. Neftali Feliz has two saves in the World Series and six in the postseason.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five World Series home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Rangers last eight World Series games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven World Series home games.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Cederstrom:

* Under is 7-1 in Cederstroms last eight interleague games behind home plate.
* Under is 14-3-1 in Cederstroms last 18 games behind home plate.
* Rangers are 20-6 in their last 26 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.

FINAL PITCH: St. Louis scored 16 runs in Game 3 of the World Series but has only tallied six in the other four games.


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MLB

Thursday, October 27

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bet
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Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)

The St. Louis Cardinals are probably happy to have another day to get over their Game 5 collapse. Game 6 was set to go Wednesday night but was postponed until Thursday due to rain. The weather is supposed to be crisp but clear Thursday with light winds.

Everything seemed to be rolling in the right direction for the Cardinals Monday until some apparent miscommunication derailed them in a 4-2 loss, putting their backs against the wall down 3-2 in the series.

First, Allen Craig tried to steal second base in the seventh inning for some reason with Albert Pujols at the plate and was predictably thrown out. The Cardinals couldn’t capitalize. Then manager Tony LaRussa said there were more communication issues as he tried to get his relievers ready in the bullpen.

In short, it wasn’t exactly St. Louis Cardinals baseball. You don’t get on this kind of run by making sloppy mistakes and you have to think the Cardinals will bounce back.

Wednesday's starting pitchers will just get another day of rest as Jaime Garcia and Colby Lewis are expected to share the hill Thursday.

Garcia has been dominant in front of his hometown crowd at Busch Stadium, working on a 1.93 ERA. Of course, he’ll have his hands full again with a Texas lineup led by the red-hot Mike Napoli that has already seen him once this series. Still, Garcia’s confident.

"Obviously, you learn things from hitters, and I've been watching them the last couple games in Texas, too," Garcia said. "But it all comes down to going out there and basically being able to execute what you want to. It doesn't matter which team, which lineup, what part of the season it is. It's just going out there and worrying about the little things that you can control."

Both Garcia and Colby Lewis have been dealing lately and while we’re leaning toward the Cards, we'll take a shot at the under right now.

Pick: Under

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals And Rangers Go To Decisive Game 7

This year's World Series started off as a best-of-7 between the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. It then turned into a best-of-5 followed by a best-of-3.

It's now a winner-take-all with Game 7 set for Busch Stadium on Friday (8:05 p.m. ET). Ron Washington will send left-hander Matt Harrison to the mound for Texas; Tony La Russa has not announced St. Louis' starter, but he's expected to hand the ball to Chris Carpenter on short rest. Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson remain two more options for the Cardinals.

St. Louis forced the decisive finale with an 11-inning, 10-9 win in Game 6 on Thursday. David Freese delivered the deciding blow with a walk-off homer to center. Played 20 years and one day after the memorable 10-inning, 1-0 Game 7 of the 1991 Series between Minnesota and Atlanta, Game 6 of this year's Fall Classic will go down in MLB postseason lore as the antithesis to that game in terms of scoring, but equally exciting.

Twice the Rangers were a strike away from their first MLB title, and twice Cardinals batters denied them. The boxscore looks like it came from an All-Star Game as La Russa and Washington combined to use 42 players, 15 of them pitchers. You almost expected Washington to call in Rangers team president Nolan Ryan from the stands. There were 12 lead changes or ties, with Freese's triple in the ninth extending the game to extra frames before his walk-off clout.

A record crowd (47,325) at the latest Busch Stadium saw it all in person with millions more watching on TV. Friday's encore performance, the first Game 7 in the World Series in nine Octobers, will be hard-pressed to match Game 6. Instant classic indeed.

For all the twists and turns this year's Series has taken, one of the more interesting stats has to be Harrison closing as the chalkiest pitcher for any single game. Texas ended up on a -180 line for Game 3 which turned into the Albert Pujols show with neither Harrison nor Lohse making it through the fourth inning.

Harrison was partly done in by umpire Ron Kulpa's missed call at first base in the top of the fourth as well as a throwing error by Mike Napoli who was playing first that night for the Rangers. Washington said all week he was sticking with Harrison for Game 7 regardless of the situation. Wednesday's rainout means he could have gone with Derek Holland for this contest on regular rest, but the Rangers dugout commander instead used the lefty for two innings of relief on Thursday.

Holland only needed 23 pitches to get six outs for Washington, and should be available from the 'pen again tonight.

While Washington remained steadfast in returning Harrison to the mound in Game 7, La Russa has been evasive about who might be his hurler. He said Carpenter told him he could pitch in Game 7, but La Russa avoided making any official announcement.

Carpenter pitched on three days rest for the first time in his career nearly four weeks ago, taking the mound for Game 2 of the NLDS vs. Philadelphia and not faring well (3 IP, 4 ER). He burned through 101 pitches this past Monday in Game 5, a very similar count to the 106 he threw in his final regular season start before his first NLDS appearance.

Colby Lewis, who went through 95 pitches in his 5 1/3 innings in Game 6, is likely the only pitcher not available to Washington tonight. The Rangers are also monitoring two of their hitting stars, Napoli (ankle) and Nelson Cruz (groin), after both suffered injuries on Thursday. They are each listed as probable for Friday's game.

La Russa was not so sure about his slugger Matt Holliday who injured a finger in a slide while being picked off third base in Game 6. The Cardinals bullpen might also be short a couple of arms. In addition to the 59 pitches Jaime Garcia threw to begin Game 6, Fernando Salas (48) and Lance Lynn (32) worked a little extra on Thursday and may not be in the mix for Game 7.

The early MLB odds have Carpenter and the Redbirds -140 with an 8-run total. The last eight times a World Series has been pushed to a seventh game, the home team has won them all.

Crew chief Jerry Layne will be behind the plate on another crisp autumn evening in St. Louis, the thermometer starting around 50ºF and dropping to the low-40s by 10:00 p.m. local time. This will be Layne's third assignment under the mask this postseason, and all will have come here in St. Louis. He worked Game 3 of the NLDS between the Cards and Phils along with Game 1 of this Series. Both ended with identical 3-2 scores.

[StarDust Bum]

Carpenter tries to finish off Rangers in Game 7


TEXAS RANGERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS


World Series Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
First pitch: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -140, Texas +130

One night after mounting two incredible comebacks, St. Louis hosts Texas on Friday night in the first World Series Game 7 since 2002. David Freese’s 11th-inning, walk-off home run gave the Cardinals a 10-9 win and new life.

Texas has some psychological hurdles to get over after blowing two-out, two-run leads twice in Game 6. But the Rangers haven’t lost back-to-back games since August 23-25 against Boston, rebounding from a loss 13 consecutive times. And they’ll also have lefty Matt Harrison going on normal rest, unlike the Cardinals’ burned-out pitching staff and Chris Carpenter going on three days’ rest. The emotion of Game 6 will play a big role for bettors, but don’t buy into it. As underdogs, TEXAS is the pick.

The FoxSheets show a three-star trend concerning tired pitchers:

Play Against - Any team (ST. LOUIS) - starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. (111-71 since 1997.) (61%, +51 units. Rating = 3*).

Both teams have major injury concerns, as St. Louis LF Matt Holliday exited Game 6 with a severely bruised pinkie finger and Texas RF Nelson Cruz suffered a strained groin. The status for both players is uncertain, but it would be surprising to not see either of these sluggers in the starting lineup. Holliday has a .419 on-base percentage and 13 runs in 16 postseason games, but is just 3-for-19 in the World Series. Cruz homered in Game 6 to tie a MLB record for most home runs in a postseason (eight).

There have been several hitting stars in the World Series, as St. Louis has four regulars with a four-digit OPS in the series: Lance Berkman (1.127), Albert Pujols (1.109), Allen Craig (1.088) and Game 6 hero David Freese (1.083). Texas only has one, Mike Napoli (1.313), who injured his ankle in the fourth inning of Game 6. But he was able to stay in the game and is expected to start on Friday night.

The home team has won the past eight World Series Game 7’s, which is good news for the Cards. Manager Tony La Russa has used his bullpen aggressively throughout the playoffs, and Game 7 should be no different. The entire staff is likely to be available, headlined by ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA during the regular season). But Carpenter has pitched on three-days rest only once in his career, at Philadelphia for Game 2 of the NLDS earlier this month, and it didn’t go well. He allowed four runs and eight base runners in just three innings of work.

Rangers manager Ron Washington never wavered from Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA during the regular season) as his Game 7 starter. The lefty’s final line in Game 3 was ugly: 5 runs (3 earned) over 3.2 innings. But he gave up one run over the first three innings before a blown call, followed by a costly error, led to a four-run fourth inning for St. Louis.

In his previous two playoff starts Harrison was decent in short outings, allowing two runs over five innings each time, both Texas road wins. He threw 90-plus pitches each time, striking out 12 in those 10 innings but also walking five.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at St. Louis
The Rangers look to bounce back from last night's 10-9 loss and build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. Texas is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 965-966: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 16.931; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.812
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 28

Carpenter goes on three days' rest; he is 3-0, 3.33 in five starts this fall; he has a 2.00 RA in his last four home starts. Harrison is 1-1, 4.61 in his three postseason starts; he hasn't gotten more than 15 outs in any of the three games.

Cardinals scored 32 runs in this World Series, but 26 of them came in Games 3/6; they're 5-3 at home in playoffs, Rangers are 3-5 away from home; over is 5-3 in those games.Under is 4-3-1 in St Louis home tilts. Redbirds scored 3 or less runs in four of six series games. Texas is 8-1 when it allows 3 or less runs in playoffs this fall, 2-5 when it allows more. NL park, no DH in this game. In this postseason, St Louis is 7-2 if game goes over, 2-5 if it stays under.

After watching last night's game, and I am not rooting for either side, but how could you bet against St Louis after last night's near-death escape?




MLB

Friday, October 28

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. ST. LOUIS
Texas is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas's last 9 games
St. Louis is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home


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MLB

Friday, October 28

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Rangers at Cardinals - Game 7: What bettors need to know
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Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-140)

Series tied 3-3

THE STORY: The St. Louis Cardinals staged one of the top World Series comebacks of all-time in Game 6 to set up a winner-take-all finale against the Texas Rangers on Friday. Texas was one strike away from winning in both the ninth and 10th innings but the Cardinals rallied both times and won 10-9 on David Freese’s dramatic 11th-inning homer. The St. Louis comebacks – and Texas collapses – prompt the first World Series Game 7 since the Anaheim Angels defeated the San Francisco Giants in 2002.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, Fox.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (0-1, 7.36 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-0, 2.77 ERA)

Harrison lasted just 3 2/3 innings in Game 3, won 16-7 by the Cardinals. Harrison gave up five runs (three earned) and six hits. He hasn’t gone longer than five innings in any of his three postseason starts.

Carpenter allowed two runs in each of his World Series starts, pitching six innings to win Game 1 and hurling seven innings while taking a no-decision in Game 5. All the runs off him have come on homers – Mike Napoli’s two-run shot in the opener and solo shots by Adrian Beltre and Mitch Moreland in Game 5.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Freese etched his name into St. Louis lore in Game 6 by smacking a game-tying two-run triple with two out in the ninth in addition to his game-winning homer. Lance Berkman delivered the game-tying single in the 10th as part of 3-for-5 game in which he homered, scored four times and had three RBIs. Albert Pujols had a double in Game 6 for his first hit since going 5-for-6 with three homers in Game 3. Matt Holliday left Thursday’s game with a bruised right pinkie but expects to play Friday. Allen Craig also homered in Game 6.

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Napoli reached base five times in Game 6 and had his 10th RBI of the season but also sprained his left ankle. Postgame X-rays were negative. Nelson Cruz (strained groin) also is ailing and left the game a few innings after belting his record-tying eighth homer of the postseason. Josh Hamilton hit a two-run homer in the 10th for his first blast of the postseason and had three hits and three RBIs. Beltre also homered. Neftali Feliz (ninth) and Scott Feldman (10th) were the relievers who blew late leads and Mark Lowe served up Freese’s game-winning shot.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 1-4 in their last five World Series road games.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six World Series home games.
* Under is 7-2 in Rangers' last nine World Series games.
* Under is 6-2 in Cardinals' last eight World Series home games.


UMPIRE - Jerry Layne:

* Under is 4-1 in Laynes last five games behind home plate.
* Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games with Layne behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight games with Layne behind home plate.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Laynes last four interleague games behind home plate.

FINAL PITCH: The home team has won the last eight times the World Series has featured a Game 7. The last road team to win a Game 7 was the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (106 - 72) at ST LOUIS (100 - 79) - 8:05 PM
MATT HARRISON (L) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 76-50 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-33 (+8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 30-18 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 101-80 (+4.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 36-17 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 100-78 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CARPENTER is 15-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 10-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 101-66 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 79-46 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 79-47 (+18.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 45-25 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 53-38 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 107-71 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 52-28 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
HARRISON is 8-1 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 9-15 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-23 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
CARPENTER is 4-8 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

MATT HARRISON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HARRISON is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.907.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. TEXAS since 1997
CARPENTER is 3-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.38 and a WHIP of 1.677.
His team's record is 5-8 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (+0.6 units)

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, 10/28/2011

World Series - Best of 7 - Game 7 - TIED 3-3
TEXAS at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET FOX
HARRISON: 15-3 TSR 2nd half of the season
CARPENTER: 8-11 TSR as home favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/27/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/24/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/23/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/22/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1355 Detail
10/20/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/19/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-*3-*0 0.00% -*1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
10/11/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 34-*26-*2 56.67% +4650

Friday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas +121 500

St. Louis - Under 7.5 500

[Kaptain]

gl w/ Tx and the Under Bum