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**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 06:15 PM

Cardinals, Rangers World Series Game 1 Preview

An interesting prop bet for this year's World Series might be an 'over/under' on the number of starting pitchers to work more than five innings. Judging by how the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals worked their way through the League Championship Series round, the 'under' would draw a lot of action.

The matchup between the Rangers and Cardinals is probably surprising enough to most folks, but it's how the two clubs got here that is a complete shock to fans and bettors who have followed the sport over the years. Texas' appearance as repeat American League champs really shouldn't be too surprising and the opening odds like the Rangers at -160 to take home their first World Series title.

St. Louis just making the playoffs was stunning to say the least, with the Redbirds 10.5-games out of the National League Wild Card race a little more than a month from the end of the regular season. They first had to dump the heavily-favored Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, then drop the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS.

Still, neither the Cardinals nor the Rangers made it to this point the old-fashioned way, behind stellar starting pitching. It should have the Phillies scratching their heads right now after the incredible rotation they assembled for the 2011 campaign.

All told, Texas and St. Louis starters worked just 53 innings in the 12 LCS contests and were charged with 40 earned runs (6.79 ERA). The relievers for both clubs tossed 56 innings and surrendered 10 runs (1.60).

It's enough to make you stop and wonder if Scott Feldman and Marc Rzepczynski might be the real 'aces' of these two staffs.

The actual No. 1 starters for each club are expected to get things rolling Wednesday night at Busch Stadium where the Cardinals finally have home-field advantage in the postseason, thanks to the NL winning the All-Star Game. Texas manager Ron Washington had yet to make an official announcement on his starter, though CJ Wilson is the most likely choice. Tony La Russa and St. Louis will turn to Chris Carpenter.

Early numbers for the matchup showed Carpenter and the Cards -120 choices with a 7½-run betting total.

Wilson has struggled this postseason to put it mildly. Following up on a regular season that saw the Rangers win 21 of his 34 starts while the southpaw fashioned a 2.94 ERA, Wilson has been raked for a 1.85 WHIP and 8.04 ERA in three playoff starts, Texas only winning once.

He had a bad break in his last start, Game 5 of the ALCS in Detroit, when a Miguel Cabrera grounder took a bounce off the third base bag to open the doors for a 4-run Tigers sixth inning. Wilson will be facing a Cardinals lineup that is 20-22 vs. left-handers, including the postseason.

Colby Lewis would be the Game 1 starter for the Rangers if Wilson doesn't get the starting nod on Wednesday. Lewis picked up a win in the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay, then took a loss in the ALCS against the Tigers.

Carpenter had the last quality start by a Cardinals pitcher when he tossed his complete game, 3-hit shutout to win the NLDS vs. Philadelphia. The veteran right-hander followed that up with a rather ho-hum outing in Game 3 of the NLCS, allowing three Brewers runs in five innings of St. Louis' 4-3 victory.

Both managers would no doubt love to see their starters go at least seven innings each game. Each staff certainly has arms capable of turning around the crazy numbers in the two league championship series. But don't think for one minute that either Washington or La Russa will hesitate to go to their 'pens.

Remember that La Russa, plus his longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan, once used a 'platoon rotation' when they were in Oakland back in 1993.

Both managers also have very potent lineups that can help bail out ineffective pitchers. Thanks to the red-hot Nelson Cruz, the Rangers have ramped up their scoring a bit with 55 runs in 10 postseason games; they were third in the majors during the regular season with a 5.28 RPG mark.

David Freese has overshadowed stars like Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman in the St. Louis batting order this October. The Cardinals were tops in the NL scoring 4.70 runs per game through the regular season, and have exceeded that in the playoffs with a 5.64 average.

The Rangers shouldn't suffer too much without a DH in the games played at Busch Stadium. The odd men out will be Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba. Michael Young was the DH in six of Texas' 10 playoff games to date, but should be at 1B for Games 1 and 2.

There really isn't much history between the two clubs, with just one interleague series meeting along the way, and that was over seven years ago in June 2004. St. Louis won two of the three played in Texas, with Carpenter the losing pitcher in the only defeat and the 'over' going 2-1.

Cloudy, cool, windy and a 20 percent chance of rain is the St. Louis forecast for Wednesday. FOX, in its infinite wisdom, still hasn't decided on the exact game time, but the thermometer will already be in the upper-40s around 8:30 p.m. (ET), 7:30 local. A pretty good NW wind (12-15 mph) across from left to right is part of the mix.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 06:17 PM

Rangers, Cards meet in World Series

Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton in a matchup of MVP sluggers. Nelson Cruz and David Freese becoming bigger names with each home run swing. Pitching staffs full of shaky starters and shutdown relievers.

Plus a Rally Squirrel and the Claw.

The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, with a lot of symmetry, are all set to get acquainted in the World Series.

Leave it to ol' Arthur Rhodes to make the introductions. The 41-year-old lefty specialist began the year with Texas, wound up in St. Louis and is likely to get a ring either way.

Besides, it takes someone who's been around a bit to remember the last time these teams played.

It was 2004, in a three-game set in Texas. Even in this era of interleague play, that's the only time the Cardinals and Rangers have met when it meant something. According to STATS LLC, that matches the fewest games between a pair of opponents in the majors, tying Mets-White Sox.

Game 1 is Wednesday night in St. Louis, with aces Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and C.J. Wilson set to start. The opening odds see Texas as a small favorite.

``The Rangers are scary. They're a scary team,'' said Freese, the NLCS MVP. ``You look at that lineup, you look at that staff. It's going to be a battle.''

``I think we're a team that can match up with them a little bit. And they're confident, we're confident. It's been a tough road. I've definitely been watching the ALCS for sure. That's some good ball over there,'' he said.

Consider this an old-school World Series: top names on both sides, many of them facing each other for the first time - the way it was before AL and NL clubs began playing each other all through the summer.

Think of Ted Williams vs. Stan Musial, maybe.

Musial, in fact, might even be at the ballpark next week. The 90-year Hall of Famer who helped the Cardinals win three World Series crowns was at Busch Stadium during the playoffs for pregame ceremonies.

Stan the Man and the Cardinals beat Williams and the Red Sox in the 1946 Series. More than a quarter-century later, Williams became the first manager in Texas history after the franchise moved from Washington.

It took a lot longer for Texas to finally reach the Series. Hamilton, Cruz, Michael Young and the Rangers made their first appearance last year, only to get shut down by San Francisco's pitching in a five-game wipeout.

``We weren't very happy with the results, and we certainly knew that we were a better team than we showed,'' manager Ron Washington said.

The Series shifts to Arlington for Game 3 next Saturday. The next day, there will be a doubleheader in Texas, of sorts - St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys, then Cardinals at Rangers.

St. Louis has won 10 Series titles, second most to the New York Yankees' 27. Manager Tony La Russa, Pujols and the Cardinals last took it in 2006, helped by Series MVP David Eckstein.

This year, hardly anyone expected St. Louis to make it this far, especially when it was 10 1/2 games out of a playoff spot on Aug. 25. A sensational run in the last month, plus a tremendous collapse by Atlanta, gave the Cardinals the NL wild-card slot on the final day of the regular season.

The Cardinals did what many fans considered almost impossible in the first round - they eliminated the heavily favored Phillies. Carpenter outdueled Roy Halladay 1-0 in the decisive Game 5, then St. Louis relied on its bullpen every day to beat Milwaukee in the NL championship series.

Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski and the Cards' crew shut down Prince Fielder and the Brewers, capped by a 12-6 win in Game 6 Sunday night.

A resurgent Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday and the emerging Freese got a boost in the lineup from trade-deadline addition Rafael Furcal, one of several moves by general manager John Mozeliak that worked out well.

The Cardinals also got help - some might believe - from a squirrel that scampered right in front of home plate during a playoff game in St. Louis.

The Rangers powered to the AL West title this year and hope to show the Claw, their hand signal for big hits, a lot starting this week.

Texas began the playoffs by beating Tampa Bay in four games and mashed Detroit in the six-game ALCS. Cruz was an MVP monster against the Tigers, hitting an LCS-record six home runs with 13 RBIs.

Closer Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Scott Feldman and two of GM Jon Daniels' additions - Mike Adams and Michael Gonzalez - keyed a bullpen that dominated the postseason.

Now it's on to Busch Stadium for the opener. The NL holds home-field advantage this year because it won the All-Star game, with Fielder's homer off Wilson the big hit. The weather forecast calls for clear skies, a welcome relief in a postseason dotted by rain.

And, oh, about those previous Cardinals-Rangers games. St. Louis won two of three in June 2004, with the Cardinals' lone loss coming when Young and Texas hammered Carpenter.

Carpenter will see a packed Texas lineup, including Young, in the opener.

``I haven't thought a lick about it,'' Carpenter said after Sunday night's clincher. ``I'm excited for our ballclub, I'm excited for our organization. Unbelievable. This group of guys, I've been saying all year long, it's the most amazing group of guys I've been around.''

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 10:29 PM

World Series odds and pick: Is an upset in the Cards?

Texas Rangers (96-66) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)

Series odds: Rangers -160, Cardinals +140

The Rangers are World Series favorites despite the Cardinals owning home-field advantage. Does that mean St. Louis' miracle season is about to end? Here's how we see the series breaking down:

PITCHING:

Both teams have received little from their starting pitchers so far in the postseason. The Rangers prevailed over Detroit in six games despite not getting a single victory from a starter in the American League championship series.

C.J. Wilson will likely get the call for Texas in Game 1, and he'll be an instant underdog against steady Cardinals counterpart Chris Carpenter. Beyond that, it could get messy; the other three pitchers to start for St. Louis in the playoffs - Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson - are 1-4 with a collective 6.21 ERA in their eight outings.

With the bullpens expected to see plenty of action, Texas has the slightest of edges in that regard. The Rangers relief staff is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA and .193 opposing batting average, with the Cardinals (4-0, 2.55 ERA, .177 opp. BA) right on their heels. Carpenter gives St. Louis the edge in this one, but only by the slimmest of margins.

EDGE: Cardinals

HITTING:

Few teams can match the offensive prowess of the Rangers - but the Cardinals are one of them. St. Louis leads all playoff teams with a .288 average and 62 runs scored.

The surprising David Freese (.425, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs) leads the way for the Cardinals, with the always dependable Albert Pujols (.419, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs) right behind. Matt Holliday (.375) looked good against Milwaukee, while Lance Berkman (.237, 1 HR, 6 RBIs) did not.

Texas rode Nelson Cruz (6 HR) to victory in the ALCS, but will need stronger performances from just about everyone else. With Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler combining for just two postseason home runs - after hitting 87 in the regular season - the Rangers can ill afford to suffer through a similar power outage against a St. Louis club that has a formidable offense of its own.

Expect better performances from that trio, which will be enough to give Texas the advantage here.

EDGE: Rangers

INTANGIBLES: It's difficult to quantify which factor offers a bigger advantage: the Cardinals being led by Tony La Russa, one of the game's best managers; or the Rangers having been to the World Series just one season earlier and carrying that big-game experience with them into this year's Fall Classic. The difference maker will likely be the Cardinals' home-field advantage, which should give them the tactical edge.

EDGE: Cardinals

PREDICTION: Cardinals in seven games.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:19 PM

Umpire Layne named crew chief for World Series

October 18, 2011

NEW YORK (AP) - Umpire Jerry Layne has been named crew chief for the World Series between the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals.

The six-man crew announced Tuesday by Major League Baseball includes two umpires working their first Series: Greg Gibson and Ron Kulpa.

A 23-year major league umpire, Layne will be working his second Series and first as crew chief. He will be behind the plate Wednesday in St. Louis for Game 1.

Regular season crew chief Gary Cederstrom, Ted Barrett and Alfonso Marquez will also be making their second World Series appearances.

All six umpires worked in the division series.

Gibson will be at first base, Marquez at second, Kulpa at third, Barrett in left field and Cederstrom in right for the opener.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:20 PM

World Series Preview: Rangers vs. Cardinals

TEXAS RANGERS

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Game 1 First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Series Line: Texas -155, Detroit +135

The Texas Rangers will participate in the Fall Classic for the second time in as many years as they travel to St. Louis to begin the 2011 World Series against the Cardinals on Wednesday night. Ironically, thanks to Prince Fielder’s three-run homer run back in July’s All-Star Game, the Cardinals will get home-field advantage in the series due to the National League’s 5-1 win in the Midsummer Classic.

St. Louis and Texas have not faced each other since June of 2004. Both teams have been average against their opposing leagues, with Texas being just 9-9 versus the National League and St. Louis going just 8-7 versus the American League. Both teams’ rotations were awful in their respective LCS wins, as Texas starters posted a 6.59 ERA in 28.2 IP and St. Louis notched a 7.03 ERA in just 24.1 IP. Luckily, both bullpens were superb in LCS play, as the Rangers relievers had a 1.32 ERA in 27.1 innings and the Cards ‘pen had a 2.10 ERA in 25.2 innings. Expect more of the same in the World Series, as both lineups are crushing the ball. Texas has 27 runs on 38 hits in the past three games, while St. Louis scored 19 runs on 24 hits in the past two games. There isn’t much difference between these two clubs, but Texas has a superior lineup from top-to-bottom, especially if Cards slugger Albert Pujols is bothered by the wrist injury he suffered on Sunday night. The pick here is TEXAS to win the series.

The FoxSheets also expect the Rangers to prevail with this trend:

TEXAS is 61-30 (67.0%, +19.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Rangers will send C.J Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in regular season) to start Game 1 on Wednesday night. Wilson has had a nightmare postseason, going 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA. The Game 2 starter will be righty Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA in regular season). Lewis was hit hard in Game 3 of the ALCS, throwing 5.2 innings and allowing four runs on eight hits and was tagged with the loss.

The Rangers will need the Nelson Cruz of the ALCS not the Nelson Cruz of the ALDS to show up for the World Series. In the ALDS, Cruz went 1-for-15 with 0 RBI, but in the ALCS, Cruz hit .364 with a MLB single-series record six home runs and 13 RBI.

The Cardinals will send ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA in regular season) to the mound for Game 1. Carpenter went 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his final five regular-season starts, and then closed out the NLDS with a superb three-hit shutout in Philadelphia. But the Brewers got to him in the NLCS scoring three runs with nine base runners (6 H, 3 BB) in five innings. The Game 2 starter for St. Louis will be lefty Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA in regular season). Garcia has had a roller coaster postseason. He threw a quality start in the NLDS (7 IP, 3 ER), then was bombed in Game 1 of the NLCS (4 IP, 6 ER) before settling down in Game 5 (4.2 IP, 1 ER).

David Freese could be the 2011 version of the 2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein for the Cardinals. Freese is batting a ridiculous .425 in the postseason, hitting safely in 10 straight playoff games. He has added five doubles, four homers and 14 RBI. With Lance Berkman struggling (.237 BA, one extra-base hit in 38 postseason AB), Freese may have to be that third bat to complement Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols, who is expected to be in the lineup despite suffering a wrist injury in the NLCS clincher.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:22 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to open the series and build on their 11-1 record in Chris Carpenter's last 12 starts as a home favorite from -110 to -150. St. Louis is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19

Game 951-952: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.384; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.359
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 19

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TEXAS (103 - 69) at ST LOUIS (97 - 76) - 8:05 PM
C.J. WILSON (L) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-77 (+4.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 97-75 (+4.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-47 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 38-30 (+7.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 27-15 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CARPENTER is 14-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 104-68 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 32-23 (+12.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 200-168 (+35.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
TEXAS is 98-63 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 76-43 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 77-45 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 50-35 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 86-64 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WILSON is 45-24 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILSON is 33-14 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 24-29 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-15 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 22-22 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
CARPENTER is 8-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 8-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 3-8 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

C.J. WILSON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. TEXAS since 1997
CARPENTER is 2-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 7.16 and a WHIP of 1.807.
His team's record is 4-7 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-1.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB

Wednesday, October 19

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. ST. LOUIS
Texas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games

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**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:24 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/16/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-*3-*0 0.00% -*1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
10/11/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 29-*19-*2 60.42% +5495

Wednesday, October 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas +111 500

St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:22 PM

Wilson-Carpenter duel in Game 1 of World Series

TEXAS RANGERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

World Series Game 1
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -120, Texas +110, Total: 7.5

The Rangers find themselves in the Fall Classic for the second straight year and the Cardinals look for their 11th World Series title (second to the Yankees 27) when they face off in Game 1 on Wednesday night.

Getting the nod for the Rangers will be C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in regular season). Wilson had a career year, but has struggled mightily in the playoffs going 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA. The lefty has averaged just five innings per start in the postseason and will need to go longer to save the bullpen for a potential lengthy series. Opposing Wilson for the Cardinals is ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA in regular season). Carpenter went 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his final five regular-season starts, which has carried over into postseason success (2-0, 3.71 ERA). Texas has been very good against right-handers this year going 76-46 (62%) and has thrived against teams with a winning record (50-35, 59%). The Rangers are a team that feeds off momentum, going 60-43 (58%) after a win, while St. Louis might have used up all its runs, considering it is 0-8 over the past two seasons after having two straight wins by six or more runs. The Cards also have struggled at home against lefties, going just 8-15. Expect TEXAS and its powerful lineup to be too much for Carpenter and the Redbirds.

The FoxSheets also expect the Rangers to prevail with this pair of highly-rated trends:

Play On - Road teams (TEXAS) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, in October games. (45-19 since 1997.) (70.3%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*).

TEXAS is 53-32 (62.4%, +16.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Ironically enough, C.J. Wilson is a big reason for the Cardinals having home-field advantage. Back in the All-Star Game in July, Wilson pitched one inning and gave up three runs. He was tagged with the loss, which gave the National League home field for the World Series. Other than his All-Star game hiccup, Wilson had a career year, ranking fourth in the AL with 16 wins. The lefty has only faced a handful of Cardinals, but has handled slugger Lance Berkman well, who is only 3-for-13 (.231) against him. Wilson might be happy to pitch away from Arlington where his ERA is 3.69 compared to his sparkling 2.31 road ERA, which includes three complete games.

Carpenter had a rough first half of 2011, going 4-7 with a 3.85 ERA. But after the All-Star break, the big righty went 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA. Carpenter is also happy that he’s pitching at night, where he is 11-5 compared to 0-4 during day games in 2011. The Cardinals could use Matt Holliday to keep up his hot hitting in the middle of the lineup behind Albert Pujols. Holliday struggled early in the postseason, but has come on strong, going 7-for-13 his past three games.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:27 PM

World Series Notebook

October 19, 2011

Overall Numbers
Team Record Home Away Over-Under
103-69 56-30 47-39 90-73
97-76 48-38 49-38 94-74

Series Price: Texas -155 St. Louis +135
Series Format: St. Louis 2-3-2

Game 1: Wednesday Oct. 19
Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 20
Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 22
Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 23
*Game 5: Monday, Oct. 24
*Game 6: Wednesday, Oct. 26
*Game 7: Thursday, Oct. 27

Playoff Numbers
Team Record Home Away Over-Under Wins by 2 runs or more Losses by 1 run
7-3 4-1 3-2 6-4 4 0
7-4 3-2 4-2 7-3-1 4 1

Betcha Didn't Know

Texas went 9-9 against the National League - 5-4 on the road, 4-5 at home.
When playing in NL parks, the 'under' was 7-2 for the Rangers. At home, the 'over' was 6-2-1.
St. Louis was 8-7 against the American League - 6-3 on the road, 2-4 at home. (Make a note that 5 of the 6 wins came against the O's and Royals)
The 'under' was 6-3 for the Cardinals when using a DH in AL parks. The 'over' went 4-1-1 at Busch Stadium versus AL clubs.
St. Louis is 21-22 against lefthanders, which includes a 9-15 mark at home.
Texas has crushed lefties at home (18-8) but are a pedestrian 9-14 on the road for an overall mark of 27-22.
Two games of the World Series are scheduled on Wednesday (1, 6) and two games for Thursday (2,7).
The Rangers have gone 14-11 and 7-11 in those respective days, while the Cardinals own a 13-15 and 14-7 mark.

Betcha Didn't Know - WS Facts

The World Series hasn't seen a Game 7 since 2002 (Anaheim-San Francisco)
There have been three sweeps in the last eight World Series, all by the American League (Boston 2004, Chicago White Sox 2005, Boston 2007).
The last three National League wins in the World Series all ended in exactly five games (St. Louis 2006, Philadelphia 2008, San Francisco 2010).
The Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols (5/1) is the favorite to win the WS MVP. The last time a first baseman won the MVP was in 1979, when Willie Stargell of the Pittsburgh Pirates captured the hardware.

Umpires:

The crew is led by Jerry Lane, who will be behind home plate for Game 1. Listed below are the total results (O/U) for each umpire.
Jerry Lane: 13-17
Greg Gibson: 9-21
Alfonso Marquez: 14-19
Ron Kulpa: 15-18
Ted Barrett: 17-14
Gary Cederstrom: 12-21

After Lane, Gibson should go behind the plate in Game 2 since he's listed at 1B for Game 1. If the pattern continues, then the following umpire would be behind the plate as the series continues.

Game 1 Analysis

For all the baseball purists that believe the World Series is ruined thanks to Interleague play, this season's World Series is actually a unique matchup. The Rangers have never visited Busch Stadium, while only playing the Cardinals in just one series ever, coming back in 2004. The two pennant winners meet up in Eastern Missouri on Wednesday for Game 1 of the Fall Classic in an unexpected meeting of a pair of clubs that took different roads to get to this point.

C.J. Wilson takes the mound in the series opener for the Rangers, seeking his first win in the postseason. The Texas southpaw has put together an ERA of 8.04 in three playoff outings, while allowing six earned runs in two separate starts against Tampa Bay and Detroit. The Rangers own a 2-4 record in Wilson's six road underdog outings this season, including the Game 5 loss in the ALCS at Detroit.

The Cardinals counter with their ace Chris Carpenter, who received extra rest after St. Louis eliminated Milwaukee in six games of the NLCS. Carpenter hasn't tossed many innings in the postseason (17 IP in three starts), but turned in one of the best playoff starts in history with a complete game shutout of the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLDS. The Cardinals are just 2-6 in the former Cy Young Award winner's last eight starts at Busch Stadium, but one of those victories came in Game 3 of the NLCS over Milwaukee.

The Rangers have dominated right-handed starting pitching in the playoffs with a 7-2 record, while the Cardinals are just 1-2 against southpaw starters. Texas will not have home-field advantage in this series due to the National League winning the All-Star Game, but the Rangers have seen success on the highway by winning 10 of their previous 13 games away from Arlington.

Exact Game Props - Bodog.com

Texas Rangers 4-0 (8/1)
Texas Rangers 4-1 (4/1)
Texas Rangers 4-2 (4/1)
Texas Rangers 4-3 (9/2)
St. Louis Cardinals 4-0 (18/1)
St. Louis Cardinals 4-1 (17/2)
St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 (11/2)
St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 (19/4)

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2011, 06:19 PM

Cardinals Grab 1-0 Lead Over Texas Rangers

Imagine how many pitchers Tony La Russa and Ron Washington will go through once the two lineups heat up.

Allen Craig's pinch single in the sixth dropped just out of reach of Nelson Cruz's glove to bring home the winning run in a 3-2 victory for the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the World Series. La Russa got six innings out of a starting pitcher, ace Chris Carpenter, and still went to his bullpen for five extra hurlers.

Washington needed three relievers himself after CJ Wilson battled control issues with six walks, one hit batter and a wild pitch.

Texas will try to even things up Thursday behind Colby Lewis when he opposes St. Louis lefty Jaime Garcia. The earliest of MLB odds for this game had Garcia and the Cardinals slight favorites at -115. Game 2 opened with an 8-run total.

Lewis has been an anomaly in the Rangers rotation this postseason by averaging nearly six innings per start. He'd been Washington's most reliable playoff pitcher the past two Octobers before the Tigers caught up to him in Game 3 of the ALCS. Even with the four earned runs he surrendered during 5 2/3-innings of that outing, Lewis' postseason resume still includes a 2.37 ERA in six assignments (Texas 4-2).

A few Cardinals have seen Lewis when they were in different uniforms. Lance Berkman is 0-for-7 with four Ks and Ryan Theriot has two singles in as many at bats. Gerald Laird (3-for-8, HR) has been successful, but it's doubtful he'll get a chance to see Lewis in this game unless it's late and the Rangers are up big.

For a guy with a 5.74 ERA this postseason, Garcia hasn't been too bad. The southpaw had the one bad pitch to Ben Francisco in Game 3 of the NLDS, struggled with control and had one bad inning against the Brewers in the NLCS opener, and then couldn't make it out of the fifth in St. Louis' Game 5 win over Milwaukee.

Texas did alright against lefties during the regular season (26-21), going 1-1 in the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay; Garcia will be the first left-hander the Rangers have faced since David Price on Oct. 3 (ALDS Game 3). Rangers backup catchers Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Treanor are the only two on their World Series roster who have seen Garcia (1-for-6, 4 K combined).

Greg Gibson will be working the plate in a World Series game for the first time in his now 15-year career. He was the top umpire for 'under' bettors during the regular season at 20-9-2 to the low side of totals. He continued that trend earlier this month with an 'under' in Game 4 of the ALDS between the Rangers and Rays, a 4-3 Texas triumph.

Ah, yes, the weather. The experts at weather.com are predicting it will be dry with no chance of rain for Game 2, but it's going to be a bit cool, temps in the upper-40s for the first pitch (8:05 p.m. ET), and an 8-10 mph wind from the west blowing out to right.

The clubs will take Friday off before Game 3 in Texas on Saturday. Kyle Lohse is the expected starter for St. Louis, with the Rangers yet to make their choice official.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2011, 06:21 PM

Lewis tries to pitch Rangers to Game 2 victory

TEXAS RANGERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

World Series Game 2 - St. Louis leads series 1-0
First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 8

The Rangers will try to get their bats going and even the World Series against the Cardinals on Thursday night at Busch Stadium. St. Louis took Game 1 of a low-scoring, 3-2 pitchers’ duel led by ace Chris Carpenter on Wednesday night.

Getting the nod for Game 2 for the Rangers will be Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA in regular season). Lewis has been terrific in the postseason in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA in six playoff starts. The Cardinals will send lefty Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA in regular season) to the mound. Garcia has only lasted 8.2 innings in his past two starts combined, but pitched well enough in his most recent short start in Game 5 of the NLCS, where he gave up just one run over 4.2 innings. One statistic that is very important, especially in the playoffs, is how teams bounce back after losses. Texas has been fantastic at exactly that, going 43-25 (63%) after a loss and 24-10 (71%) after a loss by two runs or less. The Rangers also have been very hard to beat when they’re favored to win, going 81-47 (63%). With Texas usually bouncing back nicely after close losses, the Cards have not been so successful coming off close wins, where they are just 39-42 (48%) after a win of two runs or less in the past two years. Stringing together long win streaks also hasn’t been too common for St. Louis considering it is 42-52 (45%) after winning 2+ consecutive games in the past two seasons. The Rangers understand how difficult it is to climb out of an 0-2 hole, and they won’t put themselves in that situation with the pitching edge. The pick for Thursday is TEXAS on the road.

Some more FoxSheets trends for Texas include this pair:

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - good baserunning team - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game on the season, in October games. (34-14 since 1997.) (70.8%, +21.4 units. Rating = 2*).

TEXAS is 61-31 (66.3%, +18.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Lewis got roughed up in Game 3 of the ALCS, allowing four runs and eight hits over just 5.2 innings. Luckily for the righty, he will be pitching on the road where is ERA was a considerably better 3.43 than his home ERA of 5.54 during the regular season. Lewis hasn’t had too much work against any of the Cardinals, but has done a nice job with switch-hitting slugger Lance Berkman. Berkman, who had two of the team’s three RBI in Game 1, is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in his career versus Lewis. The Rangers only had six hits in Wednesday’s loss as the 2-3-4 heart of the order (Elvis Andrus, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young) went 0-for-11 with three strikeouts. Nelson Cruz finally came back to earth on Wednesday with a modest 1-for-3 and the game-ending fly out.

Garcia is very happy to be pitching at home for Game 2 where he went 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA during the regular season (4-3, 4.61 ERA on the road). Tony La Russa gained a lot of confidence in Garcia after he got hot at the end of the season, going 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA in September which carried over to his first start in the NLDS, where he threw seven innings and allowed three runs on six hits. The lefty will also be a new arm to basically every Rangers batter as only backup catchers Matt Treanor (1-for-4) and Yorvit Torrealba (0-for-2) have ever faced the 25-year-old Garcia.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2011, 06:29 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/19/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-*3-*0 0.00% -*1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
10/11/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 29-*21-*2 58.00% +4445

Thursday, October 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas -113 500

St. Louis - Under 8 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2011, 06:45 PM

Rangers, Cardinals World Series Game 3 Preview

Two stellar pitching efforts from starters Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia should have netted the St. Louis Cardinals a 2-0 lead in the 2011 World Series before the venue changed to Arlington for Game 3.

Instead, a late Texas rally in the ninth inning of Game 2 might have dramatically changed the course of this year’s Fall Classic that now sits level at one game apiece.

We’ll see what unfolds in the next chapter on Saturday night at Rangers Ballpark, when Game 3 pits the Cards’ Kyle Lohse against the Rangers’ Matt Harrison, priced as a rather hefty -180 favorite at the majority of Las Vegas wagering shops. Texas and Harrison are also listed at +110 minus the digit on the Run Line, with Lohse at -130 plus the extra run.

The Don Best odds screen has the total at a solid 9½ runs, priced at -115, at the vast majority of outlets.

First pitch for Game 3 is 8:05 p.m. (ET) on Saturday night, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver calling the action on FOX.

And if psychology plays any part in baseball proceedings, it would seem as if the Rangers have the edge heading home to the Metroplex. Keep in mind that Texas was unable to forge a breakthrough on the road in last year’s Fall Classic at San Francisco, losing the first two games at Candlestick Park before returning home.

But Thursday’s comeback win was the Rangers’ first on the road after three World Series losses away from home and could further embolden Texas, whose Series win price dropped to around even-money after the Game 1 loss. Now, however, it is listed at -180 or thereabouts to win the Fall Classic, with St. Louis priced in the +160 range.

Moreover, the aura of confidence surrounding the Redbird bullpen, and closer Jason Motte in particular, could have been shattered in the ninth-inning meltdown on Thursday night. More on that angle in a moment.

Indeed, pitching was the story, somewhat surprisingly, in the first two games of the Series. Surprising because both the Rangers and Cardinals had been involved in high-scoring League Championship Series matchups vs. the Tigers and Brewers, respectively. Perhaps the cooler weather conditions had a bit to do with the offensive slowdown in the first two games in which only eight runs total were scored. Solid starting pitching on both sides could also have accounted for the lower scores.

With the action shifting to Arlington, however, the back ends of the respective rotations due to be featured in Games 3 and 4, and the reintroduction of the Designated Hitter into each lineup should result in some higher scoring over the weekend.

Lohse would seem a risky proposition to help St. Louis reclaim home-field edge in Game 3. The veteran righty has not been fooling anyone in the postseason, reflected in short stints in the NLDS vs. Philadelphia and NLCS vs. Milwaukee. Lohse didn’t last beyond 5 1/3 innings in either outing, surrendering nine runs (eight earned, for a 7.45 ERA) and 13 hits in the process.

Moreover, Lohse has also never pitched very well vs. the Rangers, posting a 6.66 career ERA in nine previous starting assignments from earlier in his career.

Meanwhile, Texas counterpart Harrison has been a bit steadier, though hardly dominant, in the playoffs, allowing five runs and nine hits in 10 2/3 IP in the AL playoffs. Southpaw Harrison has had the strikeout pitch working, however, with 12 Ks in those outings against the Rays and Tigers. He also hasn’t allowed over three runs in any of his seven starts since the beginning of September.

Still, we wonder if that St. Louis bullpen el foldo in the ninth inning on Thursday could be a bad omen for Tony La Russa’s side. Motte, in particular, had been nearly untouchable in the playoffs, allowing just one hit and no walks in his eight previous playoff outings, and 10 straight if going back to the end of the regular season and Sept. 24-25 games vs. the Cubs.

But in Game 2, the bearded Motte allowed hits to Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus to open the ninth and both turned into runs when neither Arthur Rhodes nor Lance Lynn could shut the door after La Russa pulled Motte. Josh Hamilton and Michael Young delivered clutch sacrifice flies to score Kinsler and then Andrus from third base.

Further ominous signs for St. Louis involve key hitters Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, a combined 1-for-12 in the Series to date. The likes of Allen Craig and David Freese have emerged as the Cardinal hitting stars (such as they are) in the Series, and even the most-diehard Redbird backers would admit that prospects are bleak if neither Pujols nor Holliday emerge from their recent funks.

The Rangers, who scored 55 runs in their 10 postseason games prior to the World Series, can be expected to find their groove in Arlington, where they posted an AL-best (along with the Yankees) 52-29 mark this season. Texas is also waiting for its big bats to awaken, as ALCS hero Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Kinsler and Hamilton were relatively quiet in the two games at Busch. Mike Napoli, however, did homer in Game 1, and though Hamilton is now 2-for-27 in World Series at bats since last season and continues to be hampered by a groin injury, he was able to lift a key sacrifice fly in the ninth inning of Game 2.

Kinsler also responded with a key hit to open the ninth inning in Game 2, suggesting he might be ready for a breakout performance when the action returns to Arlington on Saturday night.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2011, 06:48 PM

World Series

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Texas vs. St. Louis (-125) 3-2 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)

2 Texas (-120) vs. St. Louis 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER (8)

3 St. Louis vs. Texas Oct. 22

4 St. Louis vs. Texas Oct. 23

5 St. Louis vs. Texas Oct. 24

*6 Texas vs. St. Louis Oct. 26

*7 Texas vs. St. Louis Oct. 27

Announcement

The Bum's World Series Best Bets !

The Bum's World Series Best Bets !

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