The Bum's CFB Week # 8 Best Bets 10/18-10/22 !

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Unbeaten Alabama hosts reeling Tennessee


TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (3-3)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (7-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -29.5, Total: 45.5

No. 2 Alabama tries not to look ahead to its showdown with No. 1 LSU when it hosts slumping Tennessee on Saturday.

The Tide have one more opponent to knock down before a bye week followed by a home date with the top-ranked Tigers. That opponent is slumping Tennessee, which has scored 42 points in three SEC losses this year. Tennessee QB Matt Simms went 6-for-20 for 128 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT at home in last week’s 38-7 defeat to LSU, and he doesn’t figure to play better in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. The Vols have averaged 10.8 PPG in the past six meetings with the Tide, losing 41-10 last year. In 2011, Alabama leads the nation in both total and scoring defense, is winning by an average score of 40-7 and is outgaining its opponents by 185 YPG. The Vols rank 114th in rushing offense (89 YPG), while the Tide have held four straight foes (all SEC teams) to less than 50 rushing yards. Alabama is 6-1 ATS with the only non-cover being a 41-0 win over North Texas when there was a 47-point spread. Roll with ALABAMA on Saturday.

This pair of four-star FoxSheets trends also support the Crimson Tide:

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Any team (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

Simms, who is replacing the injured Tyler Bray (broken thumb), went 12-of-22 for 117 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in last year’s 41-10 loss to Alabama. For the Vols to hang around in this seemingly lopsided affair, senior RB Tauren Poole will need to chew up yards on the ground. Poole proved he is capable with an impressive 177 yards on only 14 carries (8.4 YPC) in last year’s meeting with the Tide. He also had a decent afternoon against a stellar LSU defense last week, gaining 70 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. The Vols could also use a little luck in the turnover department, but considering they have just two takeaways in five games versus FBS schools this year, it’s not likely to happen. The chances are even more diminished by an Alabama squad that has played four straight turnover-free games. Tennessee has allowed 30.3 PPG in SEC play, and the team ranks 90th in the nation with 1.5 sacks per game.

Tide QB AJ McCarron has had a great year, completing 67% of his passes for 1,380 yards, 9 TD and just 2 INT, which were both in the opening game of the season. But everybody knows the way to stop Alabama is to stop RB Trent Richardson. That’s much easier said than done, as Richardson continues his assault on opponents with 912 rushing yards (130 YPG, 4th in nation) and 15 TD. In last year’s win at Tennessee, Richardson rushed for 119 yards on just 12 carries (9.9 YPC), and scored two touchdowns. In their four SEC games, the Tide have allowed a total of 101 rushing yards (25 YPG) on 98 carries. They have also forced two turnovers in each of these four conference games.

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No. 19 Auburn travels to short-handed No. 1 LSU

AUBURN TIGERS (5-2)
at LSU TIGERS (7-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -22, Total: 46.5

Three key players for the No. 1 team in the land will not be in uniform when the top-ranked Tigers host No. 19 Auburn on Saturday afternoon.

Star CB Tyrann Mathieu, leading rusher Spencer Ware and DB Tharold Simon were all suspended for this game after reportedly failing the team’s drug test. LSU has earned its top-dog status with wins over four ranked teams, but these Tigers are not 22 points better than the Auburn Tigers, especially with these suspensions depleting the secondary. Auburn’s defense has improved greatly throughout the season, holding South Carolina to 13 three games ago, and limiting Florida to six points last week. Auburn has forced 11 turnovers in the past four contests. LSU has also been winning big due to turnovers, and its +13 TO margin simply cannot last. Auburn’s Michael Dyer will keep this game close, as he not only has 752 rushing yards and 8 TD this year, but he rumbled for 100 yards on just 15 carries in last season’s 24-17 home win over LSU. Since 2006, LSU is 15-26 ATS (37%) against SEC opponents, while Auburn is 12-2 ATS in its past 14 conference games. The pick here is AUBURN to cover.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support Auburn:

AUBURN is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was AUBURN 31.6, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 2*).

LSU is 28-56 ATS (33.3%, -33.6 Units) in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. The average score was LSU 28.9, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Lost in all the suspension news of this game is Auburn coach Gene Chizik announcing he’s making a switch under center. Sophomore Clint Moseley (6-for-9, 120 yards this year) takes over for struggling junior Barrett Trotter, who is 20-of-50 for 226 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT in his past three games. Moseley probably won’t be asked to throw very much unless LSU builds up a huge lead. Although Cam Newton was the main reason Auburn beat LSU last year (217 rushing yards, 2 TD), the rest of the team still ran for 223 yards on 24 carries (9.3 YPC). This season, Auburn is 27th in the land in rushing (197 YPG), which includes a 232-yard average in four SEC games.

The defensive surge can be attributed to the run-stop unit which has allowed just 120 YPG in the past four contests, a huge improvement from the 266 YPG surrendered in the first three games this season. This is a big reason Auburn has allowed a total of 33 points in its past three wins this year, after giving up 36.7 PPG in the first three games.

LSU has beaten all seven opponents by at least 13 points each game, and has outscored the four SEC foes by an average score of 33-8, despite a passing offense ranked 101st in the land (175 YPG). The loss of Spencer Ware (73 rushing YPG, sixth in SEC) will have some impact, but LSU has other running backs perfectly capable of filling in. Michael Ford is averaging 5.4 YPC with six touchdowns, and Alfred Blue has a 5.1 YPC average and 3 TD in his past four games. Although QB Jarrett Lee has thrown for 200 yards just once this season, he has been very efficient with a 62% completion rate, 11 TD and only 1 INT. Lee and option QB Jordan Jefferson combined to go 15-of-28 for 89 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in last year’s loss to Auburn. The LSU Tigers are scoring 38.4 PPG, good for 20th in the nation.

Mathieu has arguably been the team’s most valuable defensive player, and not many defenders in the land this year have had his impact this year. The sophomore has five pass breakups, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries (two returned for touchdowns) and 42 tackles (5 TFL). Simon ranks fourth on the team with 29 tackles (21 solo) and also has eight pass breakups and an interception. LSU has won 14 straight home games and has beaten Auburn five straight times in Baton Rouge.

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Top 5 NCAAF Trends

ULLAF
WKEN ULLAF are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

WISC
MCHST WISC are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

WISC
MCHST WISC are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

MTENN
FLATL Under is 8-0 in FLATL last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

MTENN
FLATL Over is 7-0-1 in MTENN last 8 games overall.

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West Virginia at Syracuse: What bettors need to know

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 59)

THE STORY: The bye week has been about the only thing recently slowing down Geno Smith, who leads the prolific offense of No. 15 West Virginia into a prime-time showdown Friday in Syracuse. The Mountaineers have scored 98 points in their last two games with Smith throwing for 688 yards and seven touchdowns. The junior could keep piling on numbers against a Syracuse defense that ranks 112th against the pass. The Orange will need Ryan Nassib to counter every punch, but the senior has struggled in his two games before last week’s bye, throwing for less than 200 yards in each and tossing three interceptions.

TV: ESPN.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 14.5-point road favorite in the Carrier Dome. However, money on the home side has the spread down to 13.5. The total has climbed from 57.5 to 59 points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 1-0 BIG EAST, 3-3 ATS): The Mountaineers four-wide sets will spread an Orange defense lacking in confidence. Syracuse has been eaten up by game-changing targets, allowing a 100-yard receiver in each of its last three games. Smith has three weapons on the outside in Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin and Ivan McCartney, who all rank in the top four in the Big East in receiving yards. Each has helped WVU produce a whopping 19 plays of 30 yards or more. Syracuse conceded three such plays for touchdowns in a narrow win over Tulane two weeks ago.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (4-2, 0-1 BIG EAST, 2-4 ATS): Nassib finished September as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, but secondaries have taken away his top threat in Van Chew. The sure-handed receiver has just two catches for 20 yards and no touchdowns in the last two games after grabbing three scores in the first three games. If Nassib can’t find Chew in this one, he’ll have to once again turn to the ground game to keep his counterpart Smith on the sidelines. The Orange ran the ball 40 times for a season-high 170 yards last time out in a 37-34 road win over Tulane.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Syracuse stunned West Virginia 19-14 last year, when Smith was sacked five times and threw three interceptions in the first half.

2. The Orange haven’t won at home in the series since 2001.

3. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones returns after missing five games with a lower-body injury. The redshirt senior, who recorded 9.5 tackles for loss in 2010, should help a pass-rush that ranks seventh in the conference and failed to take down the quarterback in its last game.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 38, Syracuse 28 – The bye week really aided the Orange’s injuries in the secondary and it could keep Smith in check in the first half. After all, WVU has trailed in all six games this season. Smith, though, should be able to make just enough big plays late to earn the road win.

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Rutgers at Louisville: What bettors need to know

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-2, 39.5)

THE STORY: Rutgers looks to stay on the inside track toward a Big East title when it travels to Louisville on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights currently sit atop the standings with a 2-0 league mark, just the second time they have won their first two Big East games in 21 seasons in the conference.

TV: ESPN2

LINE MOVES: Louisville opened as a 1.5-point home underdog but has been bet up, flipping the spread to -2. The total has hovered around its opening number of 40 points.

ABOUT RUTGERS (5-1, 2-0 Big East, 5-1 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have made a living off opponents’ mistakes thus far, leading the nation in turnover margin (2.17). Rutgers is tied for the national lead with 24 takeaways, ranking second with 14 interceptions and third with 10 fumbles recovered. The defense has been depleted recently, however, with LB Marvin Booker (knee) and DL Michael Larrow (ankle) both lost for the season last week against Navy.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2-4, 0-1, 3-3 ATS): The Cardinals let a golden opportunity slip away in their Big East opener last weekend, giving up 18 unanswered points in the second half of a 25-16 setback at Cincinnati. QB Will Stein (621 yards passing, 5 TD, 1 INT), who had missed two games with an injured shoulder, made a brief return against the Bearcats in place of Terry Bridgewater (709 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT). Both are expected to play Friday.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The road team has won each of the last two meetings in lopsided fashion — Louisville rolled to a 40-13 victory last season, while Rutgers earned a 34-14 win in 2010.

2. Excluding the three-point thrillers in 2006 and 2007, the average margin of victory in games between the two schools since 1986 is 37.2 points.

3. Rutgers is third in the nation with 51 blocked kicks since 2002, including four this season. LB Jamal Merrell has three blocks in 2011, including two at Syracuse.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
* Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

PREDICTION: Rutgers 27, Louisville 17. According to head coach Charlie Strong, the Cardinals are struggling with confidence right now —and that seems unlikely to improve against the surging, opportunistic Scarlet Knights.

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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 8

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 58)

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia averages 380 yards through the air, while Syracuse ranks 114th in pass defense. The team is 3-1 ATS in its last four, while SU is 1-3.

Why Syracuse will cover: The defense has been inconsistent, but will finally get healthy for the first time this week. The offense hasn’t been great, but finds ways to score.

Points: The over has hit in the Mountaineers’ last five games and is 3-1 in the Orange’s last four.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers (+6.5, 68.5)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU is No. 2 in scoring (49.2 ppg) and in passing (396 ypg), while slowing the pass is Mizzou’s biggest weakness. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall.

Why Missouri will cover: Missouri is 0-3 on the road, but 3-0 at home, and is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home.

Points: The over is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five and 2-1-1 in OSU’s last four. Both have the offenses to put up big numbers.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers (-10, 57.5)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Heels have been successful thanks to a defense ranked 24th in points allowed. The offense does just enough.

Why Clemson will cover: Clemson is 6-1 ATS, including 5-0 in its last five. The offense ranks in the top 30 in every category.

Points: The over is 6-2 in Clemson’s last eight, but the under is 9-2 in its last 11 ACC games.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers (+4, 47)

Why Illinois will cover: Illinois has shut down the opposition, allowing just 17.7 ppg (17th), while an offense that averages 210 ypg on the ground wears down defenses.

Why Purdue will cover: Purdue stays in games by running the ball effectively (24th) while slowing opponents. Just one foe has scored more than 24 points.

Points: Purdue is 2-0-2 with the over in its last four, and the over is 7-1 in Illinois’ last eight in the Big Ten. Both teams have been led by their defenses, though.

Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (+10.5, 62.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: KU’s defense ranks worst in the nation in points allowed (49 ppg). K-State’s rushing attack should eventually wear down the Jayhawks, just as Oklahoma did last week. KSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why Kansas will cover: KU showed heart against a powerful Sooners squad, and has an offense – averaging more than 200 yards passing and rushing per game – to never be out of a game.

Points: The over has been big for both teams all season.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi Rebels (+16, 56)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas averages 337 ypg through the air, and Ole Miss hasn’t been able to score on anyone of note. The team is 4-2 ATS.

Why Mississippi will cover: Ole Miss has been decent against the pass, and Arkansas has struggled against the run (93rd). If the Rebels can get an early lead, we could be in for a surprise.

Points: The over is 3-1 for the Razorbacks’ last four and has hit in the Rebels’ last two.

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-21, 43.5)

Why Boston College will cover: With three losses by single digits, the Eagles aren’t has terrible as their 1-5 record suggests. VT has been erratic, especially offensively.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Va. Tech is 14th in scoring defense and eighth in rushing defense, and B.C. is struggling to score as it is. The Hokies were 0-5 ATS in their last five before blowing out Wake Forest, so maybe it’s the start of a new trend.

Points: The under is 1-5 in B.C. games, and hit four straight for VT games before the last two weeks (both over).

Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes (+32, 66.5)

Why Oregon will cover: Oregon averages 315 yards rushing (fifth) and nearly 49 ppg (third). Colorado may not know what hit it by halftime.

Why Colorado will cover: The Buffs have struggled, but that’s a big spread, especially for a team that plays games which hit the under more often than not. And they’re 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 at home. The availability of Oregon RB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas is in question.

Points: How powerful Oregon’s offense will be depends on the health of its stars.

Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones (+20, 65.5)

Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M has a multifaceted offense that ranks among the nation’s best in every category. Iowa State can’t stop the run or pass. Do the math.

Why Iowa State will cover: Texas A&M has allowed 45 and 55 points in its last two games, opening up the possibility a weakness has been exposed.

Points: The over has hit in the last three games for both teams.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 62)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: The Jackets are in a bit of a slump, but still 4-2-1 ATS and rank No. 2 in rush yards (348 ypg). Miami is 94th in rush yards allowed.

Why Miami will cover: Georgia Tech was 4-0-1 ATS early, but 0-2 recently. Meanwhile, Miami was 1-3 ATS to start but 2-0 since. The Canes are in full form after the early season suspensions.

Points: The under is a big hit in Miami home games the last several years, is 6-2 in GT’s last eight in the ACC and is 6-2 in these teams’ last eight meetings.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-22.5, 46.5)

Why Auburn will cover: LSU will be without star CB Tyrann Mathieu, RB Spencer Ware, and DB Tharold Simon, who were suspended one game for violating the team’s drug policy. Auburn is improving by leaps and bounds every week, thanks mostly to a defense that held Florida to six points last week.

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers are steamrolling everyone, with a defense that ranks in the top 15 in every major category and an offense that pounds opponents to a pulp. They are very deep and can absorb the hit from those suspensions. Auburn’s offense, by the way, is giving a sophomore QB his first career start.

Points: The under is 4-0 in Auburn’s last four, and nobody goes off on LSU’s defense.

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 64.5)

Why Air Force will cover: The Falcons can gash opponents not ready for their style (336 ypg, third). That’s a big spread against a team that will drain the clock.

Why Boise State will cover: Boise State can score at will on anybody and Air Force has one of the nation’s worst defenses. Plus, the Broncos are 24th against the run.

Points: The under is 7-2 in BSU’s last nine in conference. But every AFA game has hit the over, and Boise State can score as quickly as anybody.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (24.5, 56.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: While neither team has a defense worth worrying about, Nebraska at least has an offense to pour on the points (22nd in scoring). Minnesota, with a 109th-ranked offense, is 2-4 ATS.

Why Minnesota will cover: The Huskers are only 1-5 ATS. The Gophers have shown the ability to run the ball, and Nebraska is 74th at stopping it.

Points: The over has hit in four of NU’s last five games and in the Gophers’ last four.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Houston Cougars (-22, 59.5)

Why Marshall will cover: Despite a 3-4 overall record, Marshall is 5-2 ATS.

Why Houston will cover: The Cougars throw it more than anyone else, No. 1 in pass yards (435.5) and No. 4 in points (47.0). The Herd is No. 73 in passing defense and its offense ranks 99th or worse in everything.

Points: The under is 6-1 in Herd games, but is 2-4 for Houston.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats (4, 47.5)

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions are finding ways to win with a defense ranking sixth overall and seventh against the pass. The Wildcats are swooning, losers of four straight.

Why Northwestern will cover: Penn State may win, but it is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine.

Points: The under is 6-0-1 in PSU games, but the over has hit in Northwestern’s last three.

Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 45.5)

Why Tennessee will cover: That can seem like an awfully high spread against a competent Vols squad, especially one that has a half-decent defense and an offense that averages 294 yards through the air.

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide is 7-1 ATS, the lone loss being a 47-point spread to North Texas (W, 41-0). Bama will score 30, but can Tennessee score at all against the No. 1 defense?

Points: Bama had held four of its seven opponents to seven points or fewer, and nobody has more than 14. The Tide may have to practically cover it alone.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-28.5, 69.5)

Why Texas Tech will cover: That’s an awfully big spread for a team averaging 43.8 points (ninth) and 372 yards passing (sixth). Tech is 4-2 ATS.

Why Oklahoma will cover: TTU has no shot at stopping OU’s offense, but the Sooners also have a defense that allows just 15.8 ppg.

Points: The over hit on Tech’s last five games and three of OU’s last four. We’ll see some scoring here.

Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (-20.5, 61)

Why Washington will cover: This is a big statement game for the Huskies, and they have the offense to make it interesting. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five.

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal are the most reliable around, a perfect 6-0 ATS. Stanford has the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense. It is ranked 14th in passing, while Washington is 116th in pass defense.

Points: Despite two high-octane offenses, the under has been hitting for both teams so far.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (8, 47.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS because their offense is No. 1 in scoring (50.7 ppg) and the defense is No. 3 (9.7). That’s a tough combo to tackle.

Why Michigan State will cover: If anyone can slow UW’s offensive juggernaut, it may be MSU, which ranks No. 3 in run defense (67 ypg) and No. 1 against the pass (119). The offense has enough juice at least stay close.

Points: The under is 5-1 for MSU games, but 2-4 for UW. And the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

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NCAAF Top 6: Most injury-riddled teams in college football

South Carolina came away with a 14-12 victory last Saturday against Mississippi State but lost its best player, running back Marcus Lattimore, in the process.

Lattimore, a Heisman Trophy candidate, suffered a knee injury and will miss the remainder of the season.

Before the injury, Lattimore racked up 818 yards and 10 touchdowns and was one of the few reliable pieces in South Carolina’s inconsistent offense. Former quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team before last Saturday’s game, but his poor play and off-field behavior had already landed him in head coach Steve Spurrier’s dog house.

South Carolina has a bye this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Nonetheless, you’ll want to think twice before backing the Gamecocks, as their offense, which has scored 21 points or less in three of their last four SEC games, is about to get worse.

Here are five other teams battling injury, with a look at how you should bet them going forward:

Oregon Ducks (3-2-1 ATS)

Star running back LaMichael James remains out with a dislocated right elbow, an injury he sustained late in Oregon’s 43-15 victory over California on October 6, while quarterback Darron Thomas, who left in the third quarter in last week’s win against Arizona State, is expected to play at Colorado Saturday.

James insists he could play this weekend if necessary. But more likely, he won’t return until the Ducks play Washington State next week, as there is no need to rush him back.

Either way, the Ducks won’t be hurting without him. Backup Kenjon Barner ran for 171 yards and a touchdown against the Sun Devils, further proof that anybody in Chip Kelly’s offense can put up huge numbers if given the opportunity.

Florida Gators (3-3-1 ATS)

Florida lost quarterback John Brantley to a high ankle sprain in its 38-10 loss to Alabama in Week 5, and the Gators offense has been dreadful without him. The Gators have dropped three straight games after a 4-0 start, and haven’t covered the spread since September 24, when they beat Kentucky 48-10 as 17.5-point favorites.

In its two games without Brantley, Florida has scored 11 and six points. Brantley still isn’t practicing but is listed as questionable for the Gators’ October 29 game against Georgia. Until he returns, fading Florida and taking the under could be a good bet, as the offense doesn’t seem capable of scoring in the 20s without him.

Tennessee Volunteers (2-2-2 ATS)

Another SEC team, another QB problem. Tennessee signal-caller Tyler Bray is likely to miss at least the next month after breaking his right thumb late in the Vols’ 20-12 loss against Georgia on October 8. Without him, Tennessee couldn’t do much of anything against top-ranked LSU in a 38-7 home defeat.

Don’t expect a turnaround at Alabama this weekend, where the Vols are listed as 29.5-point underdogs. The Crimson Tide have the nation’s top-ranked defense and should be able to pitch a shutout.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-5 ATS)

Hey, there are key injuries on defense, too. Just ask the Cornhuskers, who lost all-world defensive tackle Jared Crick for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. But here’s the thing with Crick: His loss isn’t as big as you might think.

Crick had been playing injured since mid-September and has been largely ineffective for the past month. Consequently, Nebraska’s defense has struggled, allowing at least 27 points against all three BCS teams it has played.

The over has hit in four of Nebraska’s last five games and look for that trend to continue going forward.

Virginia Tech Hokies (2-5 ATS)

The Hokies’ banged-up defense, which has already lost three players to season-ending injuries, will be without star cornerback Jayron Hosley for this week’s game against Boston College. Hosley, who has been asked to play all over the field this season, re-aggravated a left hamstring injury in last week’s win against Wake Forest.

The good news? Virginia Tech will be up against Boston College’s awful pass offense, which ranks second-t0-last in the ACC ahead of only run-heavy Georgia Tech. This injury is unlikely to have any effect on this week’s outcome.

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Ear to the gridiron: Big 12 betting news and notes

Bumpy road to Bedlam

For now don't circle December 3 on your calendar.

Oklahoma State maintained their perfect record last week, but looked off rhythm in their 38-26 win over Texas. Head Coach Mike Gundy tried to downplay all the hype.

“I think there are three teams in the country that when I watch them statistically, and the little bit that I've seen of them, are really, really good football teams,” Gundy told reporters. “And then I think there are six or eight other teams that could win on any given field on any given day if they took care of the football and didn't give up big plays."

The three teams he is referring to are probably LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, as Gundy is fully aware that the upcoming three game stretch will be the toughest of the season. This week it’s Missouri, who is 3-3 but that record is deceptive of how well the Tigers have been playing.

Among those defeats was an OT road game against ranked Arizona State, a 10-point loss to Oklahoma which is beating teams by an average of 29.5 points, and a 24-17 result with Kansas State that could have gone either way.

Even if Oklahoma State covers the 6.5 points this Saturday, they have Baylor and Kansas State next, making that showdown against Oklahoma seem light years away.

Unfashionable

Big 12 QBs are producing ridiculous passing statistics this season with Landry Jones, Seth Doege, Brandon Weeden, and Robert Griffin, all within the Top 10 in passing yards.

Which leads us to Kansas State's Collin Klein, who in last year's 39-14 win over Texas, made just four passing attempts. If you are curious only two were completed for a total of nine yards.

In a league known for its passing, Klein and the Kansas State offence has focused primarily on the run. In last week's 75-point shootout with Texas Tech, Klein threw just 18 times compared to Seth Doege's 63, but the low-profile QB did rush for 110 yards and three TDs.

Much of Kansas State's success has been attributed to the defense, and in an interview with ESPN, in which they were discussing his impressive rushing statistics, Klein deflected attention from himself and took on the same stance, “the bottom line is our defense is playing really well”

The bottom line for handicappers is that undefeated Kansas State continues to impress and provide value. The Wildcats have been underdogs for four straight games and, this week against a Kansas team that ranks 120th in yards allowed at 565, they are just 10.5-point favorites.

Tough total

The featured night game has Texas Tech travelling to Oklahoma in what should be an offensive affair. Texas Tech is on a five-game over streak and QB Seth Doege has continued the Air Raid tradition with 2,167 passing yards and 18 TDs.

However is the big spread and previous history an indication that this game could go under?

The Sooners are 28.5-point favorites and held the Red Raiders to just seven points last year. In fact, three of the last four games in this series have resulted in unders. But then again, Landry Jones and Seth Doege do have the ability to turn this into a video game.

We have mentioned that teams would try to slow down the pace, and instead what we found was that Big 12 coaches were taking the more aggressive approach and keeping games at a high pace.

Texas Tech currently leads the NCAA in plays per game at 91, while Oklahoma is fourth at 82. Texas Tech's pace has only increased, averaging 97.3 in their last three.

The total currently sits at 70.5

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Friday’s betting tips: Rutgers-Louisville line still moving

Who’s hot

NCAAF: West Virginia has covered in seven of its last 10 meetings with Syracuse.

NCAAF: Rutgers is 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven overall.

NHL: Detroit is 4-0 to start the season.

NHL: New Jersey is 19-7 in its last 26 home games.

CFL: Edmonton is 9-4-1 in its last 15 games in Toronto.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Syracuse is riding a 1-4 slump against the spread.

NCAAF: Louisville is 0-5 against the spread in its last five home games.

NHL: Dallas is 1-4 in its last five games in Anaheim.

NHL: San Jose is 2-8 in its last 10 meetings with New Jersey.

CFL: Saskatchewan is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14.

Key stat

1 – The Columbus Blue Jackets have just one regulation win in its last 28 games.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils – New Jersey Devils goaltender Martin Brodeur will be sidelined for 7-to-10 days with his injured shoulder. The future Hall of Famer said he "tweaked" his shoulder while diving back into the net in the first period of Thursday's game against the visiting Los Angeles Kings. The injury forced Brodeur to leave the game, and he sat out Saturday's contest against the Nashville Predators as well. Johan Hedberg, 38, will continue to start in his absence for the Devils, who return to the ice on Friday versus the San Jose Sharks. Brodeur, 39, is 0-1-0 with a 3.00 goals-against average so far this season for the Devils.

Game of the day

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (14, 59)

Notable quotable

"The truth of this whole situation is I still need to evaluate (Palmer) and give him an opportunity to feel comfortable with our football team, with himself. Like (Palmer) said, he's been sitting on the couch, so what I want to do is make sure that at the end of the day I'm making the right decision for our football team, for our organization, for him, for everybody." – Oakland Raiders coach Hue Jackson on the speculation that newly-acquired quarterback Carson Palmer would start this week against Kansas. Oakland is currently set as a 5-point favorite.

Notes and tips

Rutgers heads into its date with Louisville riding a 5-1 run both against the spread and straight up, but after opening as 1.5-point favorites, action has forced the books to flip the line. It bounced around a bit Thursday but currently sits at Standford -2. We talked to Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas earlier this week for our Mid-week line moves piece. “This is a Louisville team which drew a ton of wiseguy action last week against Cincinnati and it looks to be more of the same this week," Fuhrman said. "The Cardinal have shown steady improvement this year and the university has shown faith in Charlie Strong by adding seven years to his deal. Rutgers has been a pleasant surprise but I'm not sure they were ready to be road chalk."

St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford was held out of practice for a second straight session Thursday in hopes the extra rest will help his recovery from a high-ankle sprain. The second-year QB is expected to be a game-time decision for Sunday's game against the host Dallas Cowboys. Bradford suffered the injury in last weekend's 24-3 loss to the Green Bay Packers. The 23-year-old has completed 53.1 per cent of his passes this season, throwing for 1,177 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. A.J. Feeley will get the call if Bradford can't go Sunday.

Vanderbilt quarterback Jordan Rodgers will make his first career start in Saturday's game against Army. The brother of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he has appeared in all six games for the Commodores this season. Rodgers struggled last week, completing 4-of-19 passes for 47 yards and an interception last week against Georgia. He has thrown for 236 yards with one touchdown and three picks. He will replace Larry Smith, who has exited all six games this season.

The Texas Rangers have announced their starters for their first two home games in the World Series, opting for lefthanders Matt Harrison in Game 3 and Derek Holland in Game 4. Harrison has been decent in two postseason starts, going 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old went 14-9 in the regular season with a 3.39 ERA over 30 starts. Holland's playoff resume is not as impressive, as he's 1-0 with a 5.27 ERA in four games (three starts). He had a career year with 16 victories and a 3.95 ERA in 32 regular-season outings. The Cardinals have not confirmed their pitchers for Games 3 and 4.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 8

October 21, 2011


Michigan State (+8.5) vs. Wisconsin - 8:00 PM EST, ESPN

MSU: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan, W 28-14
WISC: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 59-7

We're just about halfway through the College Football season and right now it's Wisconsin and Michigan State that look like the two favorites to represent its respective divisions in the inaugural Big Ten Title game. The Badgers have not had much luck visiting East Lansing in recent history, including their only regular season loss last season. ESPN's GameDay crew will be on hand, adding even more excitement at Spartan Stadium for this Big Ten night game.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll all find out on Saturday when Wisconsin's offense (8th in total offense at 523 YPG and 1st in scoring offense at 50.2 PPG) meets Michigan State's defense (1st in total defense at 186 YPG allowed and 4th in scoring defense at 10.8 PPG allowed). MSU has allowed eight offensive touchdowns all season long. Wisconsin averages 6.7 offensive touchdowns per game. The Spartans held Wisconsin to its lowest point total in Big Ten play a season ago (24 points). However, it was the first conference game for the Badgers and they averaged 48.2 PPG after that loss.

The Badgers' stop-unit is also performing at an extremely high level. It ranks 7th in total defense and 3rd in points allowed. Although this will be Wisconsin's first true road game of the season and other than a home win over #11 Nebraska, the Badgers have mostly beaten up on sub-par talent.

Michigan State is off of a convincing victory against archrival Michigan last week. The Spartans held dangerous Michigan QB Robinson to just 9-of-24 passing for 123 yards (1 TD and 1 INT) and just 42 rush yards. MSU will try to avoid a "hangover" and do the same to Wisconsin QB Wilson (completing 74.2% with 14 TD and just 1 INT this season).

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 13-1 ATS in its past 14 games overall and has covered 8 straight Big Ten games in that span. Michigan State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog.

Purdue (+6) vs. Illinois - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2

PU: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, L 18-23
ILL: 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Ohio State, L 7-17

Both teams are off of a loss and need a win here. Purdue needs a win to salvage any hopes at a Bowl game, while Illinois needs this win to keep pace with Wisconsin and Penn State in the Big Ten Leaders division. The Illini dominated this meeting last season, holding Purdue to just 205 yards and 9 first downs in the 44-10 win. However, they haven't won in West Lafayette since 2001, dropping three straight by an average of 26 points per game.

Despite the loss, Purdue had a promising performance on the road against Penn State last week. The Boilers final drive ended in an interception (their third of the game) and they lost by five points on the road. Purdue put up 162 rush yards (4.9 YPC) on a PSU defense that had been surrendering just 91.2 rush yards through its first six games. The Boilers will look for a similar performance against this Illinois defense that allowed 211 rush yards to Ohio State a week ago.

Illinois was yielding just 79 rush yards per game before last week. Ohio State only completed one pass (!) against this Illini defense and still won. Illinois' offense was sluggish the entire game and managed just 285 yards and 7 points while turning the ball over three times in the process. Sophomore QB Scheelhaase had his worst performance of the season with just 169 pass yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while the Illini rushed for just 116 yards on 3.3 YPC (had been averaging 226 YPG).

Something to consider: Illinois was 4-1 SU & ATS after a loss last season. But this will be the first time that Illinois is a Big Ten road favorite since October of 2009 and the Illini are just 2-7 ATS their previous nine as a conference road chalk.

Northwestern (+4) vs. Penn State - 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

NW: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, L 31-41
PSU: 6-1 SU, 1-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Purdue, W 23-18

Penn State has somehow managed to win six of seven games this season without solid quarterback play. QB's McGloin and Bolden have combined for just 51% completions with six touchdowns and six interceptions. It's the defensive unit that's holding this team together as it ranks 6th nationally in total defense and scoring defense (also has 17 forced turnovers - 10th nationally). Still, the Nittany Lions are playing with fire. They've failed to cover five of six games this season and four of their six wins are by 10 points or less.

If Penn State's dormant offense (78th total offense and 96th in scoring offense) is ever going to wake up, it will have a good chance of doing so against Northwestern. The Wildcats defense ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category. They allow 433 yards per game (101st) and 30 points per game (88th). In three Big Ten games alone, Northwestern has allowed 40 points per game.

For Northwestern, it's now desperation time. A team that was considered a threat to compete in the Legends division has now lost four straight and really can't afford another loss if it wants any shot at a Bowl game this season. Northwestern arguably outplayed the Hawkeyes in the 10-point loss last week.

The Wildcats gained 495 yards and 29 first downs and had +17 minutes time of possession against Iowa. They even converted 16-of-22 (73%) of their 3rd down conversions. Iowa returned an interception 98 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter and that was at least a 10 and maybe 14 point swing that Northwestern couldn't overcome.

Something to consider: Penn State scored 35 unanswered points to win last year's meeting, 35-21. PSU has now won & covered three straight in this series (average score of 34-14).

Minnesota (+25) vs. Nebraska - 3:30 PM EST, ABC

MINN: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS - Last week: BYE
NEB: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS - Last week: BYE

Minnesota had a bye last week after surrendering 103 points in back-to-back Big Ten losses to open conference play. This one could get ugly for Minnesota as the Gophers are ranked near the bottom in every major offensive and defensive category. They rank 110th in total offense, 109th in scoring offense, 93rd in total defense, and 109th in scoring defense.

Nebraska also had a week off after its huge comeback win over Ohio State. The Huskers scored 28 unanswered points to win by seven over the visiting Buckeyes. Nebraska QB Martinez has seen his share of struggles through the air (54% with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions), but the Huskers are churning out 247 rush yards per game - good for 11th nationally. Expect a lot of rush attempts against this feeble Gophers defense.

Minnesota QB Gray should be back and healthy after missing time with a toe injury, and his athletic ability should help the Gophers this week. He may see a little less pressure coming from the Nebraska defense as Huskers star DT Jared Crick was ruled out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. That's a big blow to a defense that has underachieved thus far, but don't expect to see much of a dropoff against the Gophers on Saturday.

Something to consider: This is only the seventh time in the past 12 years that a Big Ten team has been a 25+ point favorite in a conference road game (1-4 ATS).

Iowa (-23) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

IOWA: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, W 41-31
IND: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: at Wisconsin, L 7-59

Indiana nearly walked away with an upset win over the Hawkeyes last season, but standout WR Belcher dropped the game-winning touchdown with 28 seconds remaining and left the Hoosiers with a 13-18 loss. They've now dropped three straight to the Hawkeyes by an average score of 35-15.

Although Indiana didn't lose by 63 points this year against Wisconsin, it didn't exactly walk away with much confidence after a 52 point loss at the hands of the Badgers. Wisconsin has made a lot of teams look bad, but outside of a 62-yard touchdown run, the Hoosiers looked completely helpless. This Indiana defense now ranks 105th in yards allowed, 117th in rush yards allowed, and 95th in points allowed.

A week after failing to score a touchdown against Penn State, Iowa scored five against Northwestern in a 10-point win. RB Coker finally had a breakout game with 124 rush yards and two scores. There are still some concerns on defense as this unit is allowing north of 400 yards per game and 29 points per game to BCS conference foes this season. With Indiana this week and Minnesota next week, Iowa has a chance to gain some momentum if it can take care of business against below average Big Ten opponents.

Something to consider: Iowa is 1-7 ATS and just 3-4 straight up as a 15-point or more favorite.

Michigan - BYE

MICH: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 14-28

After a +25.5 margin of victory through a 6-0 start, Michigan came crashing down last week against archrival Michigan State. The Wolverines offense managed just 250 yards and 14 points while QB Robinson looked human with just 165 total yards (had been averaging 308 YPG). Up next the Wolverines have a winnable game against Purdue before a grueling four-game finish: at Iowa, at Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State.

Ohio State - BYE

OSU: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 17-7

Ohio State needed just one completed pass to beat the Illini last weekend. Proving you can still win playing old fashion football: a ground-and-pound running attack and suffocating defense. The run game was fueled by the return of previously suspended RB Herron, who scampered for 114 yards and a score. It's hard to imagine that Ohio State can continue this recipe for the rest of the season, but it was a nice way to head into the bye week. They'll need an extra week to prepare for a home-meeting with Wisconsin - just a year after Wisconsin upset then #1 OSU in Madison.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/20/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 127-*103-*5 55.22% +6850

Friday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rutgers - 8:00 PM ET Rutgers +2 500

Louisville - Under 39.5 500

West Virginia - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse +14 500

Syracuse - Over 59 500

[StarDust Bum]

UNC looks to knock Clemson from unbeaten list

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (5-2)
at CLEMSON TIGERS (7-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Clemson -10.5, Total: 58

No. 8 Clemson tries to start 8-0 for the first time since 2000 when North Carolina pays a visit to Death Valley on Saturday.

Clemson is 5-2 in the past seven meetings with UNC, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of these seven games, including a 21-16 win over the Tigers at home last year. Despite losing to Miami last week, Carolina ended the game on a 21-3 run. Clemson’s defense was certainly exposed last Saturday when Maryland hung 45 points and 291 rushing yards on the Tigers. Although dynamic QB Tajh Boyd and freshman sensation Sammy Watkins will be the difference in the win column, the pick here is for NORTH CAROLINA to keep this game tight throughout, and not lose by double digits.

This four-star FoxSheets trend strongly cautions against expecting the Tigers to cover for a sixth straight game:

Play Against - Any team (CLEMSON) - off a big road win scoring 38 or more points, in the second half of the season. (32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Tar Heels QB Bryn Renner threw for a career-best 288 yards in last week’s defeat and has 11 TD and 2 INT in his past five games. His 75.3 completion percentage and 174.1 passer rating are both tops in the ACC. His numbers might be even better if his offensive line protected him more. UNC has allowed four sacks in each of the past two games. Renner’s top receiver continues to be Dwight Jones, who has at least 80 receiving yards in all six games this year. Jones has doubled last year’s TD total with eight touchdowns in 2011, including four in the past three games. Another consistently excellent player on this Carolina offense is freshman RB Giovani Bernard, who is riding a string of five straight 100-yard games. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry this year and has scored in four straight contests, giving him 9 TD on the season (tied for 10th in nation).

The Heels run-stop unit has really clamped down since allowing Georgia Tech to run for 312 yards. In the past three weeks, UNC has held opponents to 72 rushing YPG on 2.5 yards per carry. Carolina has a slew of players nursing ankle injuries, including Renner, who is expected to start. But RB A.J. Blue, OL T.J. Leifheit and SS Jonathan Smith could all miss another game due to their bad ankles.

Boyd’s four TD passes in last week’s 56-45 comeback win over Maryland gives him 19 on the year, and just 3 INT. He should thrive against UNC’s 92nd-ranked pass defense, especially with Watkins emerging into a superstar. Watkins amassed a school record 345 all-purpose yards against Maryland. He had eight catches for 105 yards and two scores, and added 207 return yards, which included an 89-yard kickoff return TD with under eight minutes left. Watkins has 728 receiving yards (2nd in ACC) and is tied for the conference lead with 8 TD. RB Andre Ellington also had a huge night against the Terps, galloping for a career-best 212 yards with 2 TD. He now has 329 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC in the past two games.

Clemson’s rush defense will be tested again, and the Tigers haven’t passed many of these tests this year, allowing 291 yards to Maryland last week, surrendering 272 yards to FCS opponent Wofford in Week 2 and giving up 237 rushing yards to Auburn. Clemson has forced a turnover in all seven games though, totaling 11 takeaways on the year.

[StarDust Bum]

Oklahoma seeks 40th straight home win Saturday


TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (4-2)
at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (6-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -29, Total: 70

No. 3 Oklahoma looks for another convincing Big 12 victory when it hosts slumping Texas Tech on Saturday.

The Red Raiders have dropped two straight games since their 4-0 start, and they haven’t won in Norman since 1996, spanning seven visits. Oklahoma has won 39 consecutive home games (the longest streak in the nation), including 32 straight in Big 12 play. The Sooners crushed Tech 45-7 last year, as Landry Jones went 22-of-29 for 317 yards, 5 TD (three to Ryan Broyles) and 0 INT. The Sooners finished off Kansas with 23 unanswered points last week, for their 11th straight SU victory, the past three coming by an average of 41.3 PPG. Texas Tech also has a potent offense, led by QB Seth Doege who has just 10 fewer passing yards than Jones this year. But the Red Raiders do not have their best running back, Eric Stephens, who is out for the year with a knee injury, and Oklahoma has one of the best pass rushes in the land, tying for second with 4.0 sacks per game. Expect the Sooners to make Doege mighty uncomfortable in the pocket. Although the spread is lofty, the pick here is OKLAHOMA to cover.

This rare five-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Sooners:

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with 8 offensive starters returning. (31-4 since 1992.) (88.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*).

Doege (18 TD, 4 INT) ranks second in the nation in total offense with 375 YPG, but he tossed three interceptions in last week’s 41-34 loss to Kansas State. He’ll likely be a bit short-handed as WR Darrin Moore (339 rec. yds, 4 TD) is doubtful to play Saturday because of a knee injury. Sophomore Eric Ward remains the first option in the air attack with 38 catches and eight touchdowns this year. Ward had scored in every game before KSU kept him out of the end zone last week. Junior Alex Torres leads TTU with 381 receiving yards, including back-to-back 100-yard efforts. Aaron Crawford is the new featured back with Stephens sidelined, and put up good numbers against the Wildcats, gaining 91 yards on 21 carries. However, his YPC was inflated with a 51-yard TD run, giving him only 40 yards on his other 20 carries.

The Red Raiders defense ranks 82nd in the nation in both scoring (29.5 PPG) and yardage (407 YPG), with their run-stop unit being especially generous (219 YPG, 111th in nation). In Big 12 play, TTU has allowed 40.0 PPG and 212 rushing YPG.

The Sooners have the nation’s fourth-best offense (547 YPG) and rank sixth in the nation in scoring at 45.3 PPG. Jones threw for 363 yards and 3 TD in last week’s win over Kansas, including a school-record 217 to Broyles. The senior wideout also set the NCAA career record for receptions (326) and the Big 12 record for TD catches (44) with two more scores. OU’s running game also has an emerging star in junior Dominique Whaley, who rumbled for a career-best 165 yards against the Jayhawks. Whaley has nine touchdowns this season and ranks third in the Big 12 with 105 rushing YPG. Despite the gaudy offensive numbers, the Sooners haven’t been very proficient in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 56% of their red-zone trips.

Oklahoma’s defense has also been top-notch all season, ranking 11th in the nation in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) by holding five of six opponents to 17 points or less. The defensive leaders have been DL Frank Alexander (6.5 sacks) and LB Travis Lewis, who has 40 tackles in five games. Although the OU defense did not force a turnover last week, it has 3+ takeaways in four of six games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia Tech tries to add to BC's misery


BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (1-5)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (6-1)


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -20.5, Total: 43.5

Boston College hasn’t beaten an FBS team this year, and No. 16 Virginia Tech will try to keep this skid intact when it hosts the Eagles on Saturday.

BC has very little chance at keeping this game close, ranking 105th in the country in offense (318 YPG) and 95th in defense (419 YPG). The Eagles are 0-5 against FBS schools this year, getting outscored 66-17 in two road defeats. Their top RB Montel Harris is done for the season (knee), and they’re going up against No. 8 run defense in the land (84 YPG). Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas has lit up his past two ACC foes for 658 total yards and 9 TD, while RB David Wilson has four straight 120-yard rushing games. This will be over by the first quarter. The pick here is VIRGINIA TECH to win and cover.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Hokies:

Frank Beamer is 42-21 ATS (66.7%, +18.9 Units) off a road win as the coach of VIRGINIA TECH. The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 34.2, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Play On - A home team (VIRGINIA TECH) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. (26-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The Eagles are averaging 14.4 PPG in their five FBS defeats this year, failing to reach 20 points in any of these games. However, the hopeful return of RB Andre Williams (ankle) would certainly improve this offense. The sophomore rushed for 324 yards and three touchdowns in his four full games this season. QB Chase Rettig has seen his yardage totals drop in each of the past four weeks (247, 196, 188 and 129), but he has 6 TD and only 2 INT in these four contests. Sophomore WR Bobby Swigert gained a season-high 93 receiving yards and scored his first touchdown of the season in the last game against Clemson.

The BC defense has just been dreadful, ranking 105th in the country in sacks (1.0 per game) and 101st in passing defense (262 YPG). In three ACC games, the Eagles have surrendered 992 yards through the air (331 YPG). Although they forced four turnovers against FCS opponent UMass, BC has only three takeaways in five matchups with BCS teams.

Virginia Tech has crushed Boston College in each of the past three seasons, outscoring the Eagles 97 to 26. The Hokies ended last week’s game versus Wake Forest (which had won four straight games) on a 30-3 run. In addition to his strong performance throwing the football, Thomas has also scored four rushing touchdowns in the past two games. He’s the reason Wilson only has three rushing TD in his past six contests. Wilson leads the ACC and ranks fifth in the nation in rushing yardage (129 YPG), but has been limited to 101 yards on 29 carries (3.5 YPC) in two career games versus Boston College.

VT’s defense ranks 14th in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and 15th in yardage (298 YPG), and these numbers would be even greater if the team wasn’t ravaged by injuries. DE James Gayle (ankle) missed last week’s game against Wake Forest and star CB Jayron Holsey injured his hamstring in the first quarter of the win over the Demon Deacons. Both Gayle (3.5 sacks) and Holsey (team-high 3 INT) are questionable for Saturday’s game. DT Antoine Hopkins (knee) and LB Jeron Gouveia-Winslow (foot) are already out for the year.

[StarDust Bum]

Oklahoma St. tries to end Missouri's home win streak


OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (6-0)
at MISSOURI TIGERS (3-3)


Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -6.5, Total: 68.5

Missouri puts its 10-game home win streak on the line when unbeaten No. 6 Oklahoma State rolls into Faurot Field on Saturday.

The Cowboys are well-known for their air attack, ranking second in the nation with 396 passing YPG, but it’s their ground game that was a huge against Texas last week. Jeremy Smith and Joseph Randle combined for 208 yards on 24 carries (8.7 YPC) against a Longhorns team that had been allowing only 106 rushing YPG. The Cowboys have a +13 turnover margin in the past four games, while Missouri is +1 in this span. OSU’s dynamic quarterback Brandon Weeden did not have a great game against Texas, but he’ll face a Missouri defense that allowed 448 passing yards to Oklahoma and 388 to Arizona State this year. OKLAHOMA STATE has had no problem scoring points on the road this season (42.3 PPG), and will rack up a fifth double-digit victory on Saturday.

This rare five-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Cowboys:

Mike Gundy is 13-1 ATS (92.9%, +11.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of OKLAHOMA STATE. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 36.5, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 5*).

OSU is second in the nation in both scoring (49.2 PPG) and total offense (551 YPG). Weeden has completed 73 percent of his passes for 944 yards, 8 TD and 0 INT in three Big 12 games, leading his team to 46.0 PPG in these three victories. Junior WR Justin Blackmon has 53 catches for 608 yards this year, and has scored in five straight games. Senior WR Josh Cooper has been a nice second fiddle to Blackmon with 35 catches for 372 yards and two scores on the year. Speaking of touchdowns, Smith has scored in 10 straight contests, the school’s longest such streak since Barry Sanders found the end zone in 15 consecutive games in 1987 and 1988. The Cowboys have not been great defensively, allowing 26+ points in five of six games and ranking 100th in the land in yardage (427 YPG). But they have faced some high-powered offenses in Texas A&M, Texas, Arizona and Tulsa, and their potent pass rush (3.2 sacks per game, 11th in nation) should be able to rattle the Tigers.

Missouri QB James Franklin scored 5 TD as the Tigers outgained Iowa State 583 to 343 in last week’s 52-17 drubbing. Franklin ranks 11th in the nation in total offense (313 YPG), but has thrown 3 INT in the past two games and is completing just 55.6% of his passes in Big 12 play. Franklin is also not getting enough completions to his top two receivers, WR T.J. Moe and TE Michael Egnew. Last year, the duo combined for 182 catches, 1,807 yards and 11 TD with Blaine Gabbert under center, but have only 53 grabs for 650 yards and 4 TD in six games with Franklin as their QB. Part of their decline has to do with the performance of sophomore RB Henry Josey who is leading the Big 12 with 120 rushing YPG. This includes 580 rushing yards on just 59 carries (9.8 YPC) in his past four contests. The defense is in world of hurt with LB Will Ebner (ankle) and DLs Terrell Resonno (ankle) and Brayden Burnett (2.5 sacks) all unable to play this Saturday. These teams last met in 2009, as Missouri turned the ball over four times in a 33-17 loss at Oklahoma State.