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**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:00 PM

College Football Betting Preview Week 8

The first BCS rankings are out, and it has become clear that some teams need to get on their horses if they hope to have a chance of making it to the BCS National Championship Game.

One of those teams is the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers are ranked No. 5 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, but they came in at No. 6 in the first BCS standings of the season. They're nearly a full 0.200 out of first place thanks to the computers, five of the seven of which have them ranked outside of the Top 10.

For the first time this week, Wisconsin will hit the road after playing six straight home games at Camp Randall Stadium. This road trip is a tough one at the Michigan State Spartans, who just knocked off the Michigan Wolverines last week. State, who sits No. 16 in the first BCS rankings, is an underdog by seven points at home against the Badgers.

The LSU Tigers might be ranked No. 4 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, but they are No. 1 according to the BCS. They'll get a chance to bolster that mark when they welcome the Auburn Tigers to Baton Rouge on Saturday.

It's not all that often that you see a ranked team as this big of an underdog, with Auburn 20th in the initial BCS. But the way that LSU has been mowing down opponents of late, we can plainly see why the Bayou Bengals are laying 22 ½-points.

In fact, we don't really expect to see a heck of a lot of the Top 25 teams in the land struggling. LSU vs. Auburn and Wisconsin vs. Michigan State are two of the three games pitting a pair of Top 25 teams against each other this week. In the third game, the Stanford Cardinal are favored by 20 over the Washington Huskies.

Don't think that there aren't some potential traps out there, though.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have to go on the road again this week. They've already survived trips against the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Longhorns, and now, they have to go to Missouri. The Cowboys rank No. 1 in five of the seven computer rankings and are No. 4 in the first BCS rankings. If Mike Gundy's guys can cover the NCAA football odds at the Tigers on Saturday as 7½-point favorites, they could be moving up in the human polls as well.

The Big Ten features a pair of ranked squads going on the road that could be in some trouble. The No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini travel to the Purdue Boilermakers as six-point favorites, while the No. 21 Penn State Nittany Lions are getting the nod by four points over the dangerous Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston.

No. 9 Arkansas, No. 10 Oregon, No. 11 Kansas State and No. 13 Nebraska are all on the road as well, but all four are double-digit favorites.

It's also a big weekend in the ACC. The Florida State Seminoles and Maryland Terrapins will play each other in a de facto elimination game in the Atlantic Division, while the No. 7 Clemson Tigers are double-digit favorites at home against the North Carolina Tar Heels.

In the wide open Coastal Division, the Miami Hurricanes are short three-point favorites over the No. 22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

It wasn't all that many years ago that the battle between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the USC Trojans was one of the premier matchups in the country. Entering this year's battle between the two behemoths, the Irish are unranked and the Trojans are ineligible for postseason play.

However, the meeting between these two is always intense, and this year's battle under the lights in South Bend should be as well. Notre Dame is favored by 8 ½-points, marking the first time since 1999 that it was favored in a game in this series.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:02 PM

Arkansas Razorbacks Visit Ole Miss Rebels

About the only thing that the Ole Miss Rebels and Arkansas Razorbacks have in common is they play in the SEC West. These two divisional rivals are going to duke it out in what is expected to be a blowout on the NCAA football odds in Oxford on Saturday.

Kickoff is slated for 12:20 p.m. (ET), and there will be live television coverage on the SEC Network, ESPN3 and ESPN GamePlan.

The Hogs are rolling right now. They're 13-3 ATS in their last 16 SEC games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Razorbacks are also outscoring their foes by 17.9 PPG.

Arkansas has to be pleased with the fact that it is the top team with a loss in the country in the first BCS rankings, and also enters this week ranked No. 10 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

Despite the Razorbacks' top two running backs, Knile Davis and Brodrick Green, are out for the season with injuries, the Arkansas offense continues to roll. The Razorbacks are averaging 466.2 YPG and 39.2 PPG, ranking No. 23 and No. 17 in the land respectively.

Tyler Wilson could also emerge as a dark horse candidate on the Heisman Trophy odds in the coming weeks as well. Wilson didn't expect to start this year, but after Ryan Mallett elected to go to the NFL after his junior season, the longtime backup for the Razorbacks finally got his name called.

Needless to say, Wilson has made the most of his opportunities, leading the No. 8 ranked passing team in America. He has thrown for 1,779 yards and 12 TDs against just three INTs.

On the other hand, Ole Miss just can't seem to get out of its own way. Head coach Houston Nutt, who left Arkansas to take the position in Oxford, has to regret the move with the way that both of these teams are playing right now.

The Rebels were blown away by the Alabama Crimson Tide 52-7 last week, marking the fourth time this year that they were kept down to 13 points or fewer.

The offense for Mississippi ranks No. 103 or worse in every major offensive category, and the end result of 254.3 YPG and 20.0 PPG are both ugly to say the least. Nutt has already tried three different passers this year, and it just isn't making a difference. Zack Stoudt, Randall Mackey, and Barry Brunetti have combined to complete 49.3 percent of their passes for just 905 yards with four touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Brandon Bolden sat out last week's loss against Alabama for violating team rules, but the running back should be back in the lineup this week against the Razorbacks.

It hasn't been pretty for Ole Miss in this series of late either. Arkansas is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings, and all five of those victories have come by double digits.

If there is any good news to look at for the hosts, the last time that these two met in Oxford, the Rebels did come away with a 30-17 victory.

The Week 8 college football odds opened with Arkansas favored by 15½-points, but that number has quickly risen to 17 as of Monday morning.

It should be a nice weekend for football in Oxford, as temperatures are expected to be in the low-70s with virtually no chance for rain

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:04 PM

Auburn Travels To LSU In Double-Tiger Clash

The LSU Tigers come into Saturday afternoon’s home game with the Auburn Tigers with a brand spanking new title, BCS No. 1.

This game opened with LSU as 22 ½-point favorites, but check Don Best for early line movements. The total is still to be released and CBS will broadcast at 3:30 p.m. (ET) from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

LSU (7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) was already No. 1 in the AP Poll and just added the top spot in the first BCS standings released Sunday night. The Don Best Linemakers Poll has been more skeptical all season, ranking the team fourth last week with the new version unveiled Monday.

Coach Les Miles' guys have a bye week after facing Auburn and then have a huge showdown in Tuscaloosa against No. 2 Alabama on November 5. The coaching staff will take extra care in keeping the players focused this week.

Miles has done one of his best coaching jobs this season. The early suspension of quarterback Jordan Jefferson could have upended some squads. Instead, senior Jarrett Lee has been a solid starter all season and Jefferson is contributing as the backup after returning October 1 against Kentucky.

Last Saturday’s 38-7 win at Tennessee was a prime example. Lee threw for 115 yards and two scores, while the far more agile Jefferson made his mark running the ball with 73 yards and a touchdown. This was only a 17-7 game midway through the third quarter, but a 21-0 margin from there blew away the 16 ½-point closing spread.

The Bayou Bunch is extremely tough to beat regardless of who is playing quarterback. The elite, fast defense ranks top-10 nationally in points allowed (11.7 PPG). The running game offensively is at 194.4 YPG (top-30 nationally), but is more dangerous in big games with the ‘thunder and lightning’ combination of Spencer Ware (512 yards ) and Michael Ford (359 yards).

LSU is 4-0 ATS in road and neutral site games. The home mark is 1-2 ATS, failing to ‘cover’ the 29 ½-points against Kentucky (35-7) and 49 points versus FCS Northwestern State (49-3). The team was successful in its last home game, 41-11 as 14-point favorites over Florida, taking advantage of the injury to quarterback John Brantley.

LSU is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as a 10 ½-point favorite or more, 4-12 ATS when those games were at home.

Auburn (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS), 19th according to the AP, is coming off an important 17-6 home win over Florida as surprising 3-point underdogs. The defense held the Gators to just 194 total yards, not having to worry much about the true freshmen quarterback duo of Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel. It was then able to gear up to stop explosive running back Chris Rainey (33 yards on 16 carries).

Coach Gene Chizik’s team had quarterback questions of its own heading in and they are still unanswered. Junior starter Barrett Trotter was just 2-of-8 for 33 yards, although he did have the game’s only touchdown pass in the first quarter.

Sophomore Clint Moseley started the second half and was a much more effective 4-of-7 for 90 yards. Freshman Kiehl Frazier is the running option with 41 yards last week. He will continue in that role and it will be interesting to see if Moseley is the starter next week.

The ‘cover’ from Auburn against Florida means its 9-1 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in its last four games, scoring 19.3 PPG and allowing 17.8 PPG. The defensive numbers look worse after a 38-14 loss at Arkansas two weeks ago. It did win (16-13) at South Carolina three weeks ago.

Auburn has a very good rushing attack of its own (197 YPG) with the combo of Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb. They will need to take the pressure off whoever is playing quarterback, although the stout LSU run defense is allowing just 75.1 YPG (sixth nationally).

Auburn’s run defense struggled before Florida and is surrendering 182.4 YPG on the year (ranked 87th). The LSU backs provide a great challenge playing at home and Lee is far more effective passing the ball than the Gators without Brantley. Expect a much tougher day overall from Chizik’s defense.

Auburn won last year’s matchup 24-17 as 5 ½-point favorites on the way to the national title. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the ‘under’ is 9-2 in the last 11, including the last two years.

Leading receiver Emory Blake (knee) is questionable for Auburn, which would hurt the passing game even more. Guard Jared Cooper (foot) is also questionable. LSU doesn’t have any new injuries and is pretty healthy overall.

The early weather forecast for Saturday is sunny and reaching the 70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:05 PM

Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins Pac-12 Betting Preview

The UCLA Bruins hope their ‘win one, lose one’ pattern doesn’t continue when they visit the struggling Arizona Wildcats on Thursday night. This Pac-12 battle is one of the first games of Week 8 of college football betting.

UCLA opened as very surprising 4-point road ‘dogs, but that quickly got bet down to three at Don Best. The total is still to be released and ESPN will have the 9:00 p.m. (ET) telecast from Arizona Stadium.

The Bruins (3-3 straight up, 1-5 against the spread) have alternated between wins and losses every game this year. The last contest on October 8 was a 28-25 home win over Washington State before the bye, failing to ‘cover’ the 4-point spread.

The 53 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 59 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in UCLA’s wins this year, with the defense allowing 20.3 PPG. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the losses, surrendering a giant 44 PPG.

The big news from the Washington State game (besides the win) was the injury to quarterback Richard Brehaut. He broke his leg in the second quarter and is out 3-6 weeks. Former starter Kevin Prince came in to throw for 173 yards, rallying UCLA from an 8-point deficit in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning pass with 3:26 remaining.

The junior Prince was the opening game starter against Houston on Sept. 3 and also versus Texas on Sept. 17. However, he got replaced by Brehaut early in both games, the first due to injury and the second after three, first quarter interceptions.

Prince needs to keep up the momentum from last week and not get hurt with true freshman Brett Hundley the only backup. UCLA’s pistol offense requires running from the quarterback, but that could be toned down this game. Expect the duo of Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman to get most of the carries for the nation’s 28th ranked rushing attack (194.5 YPG).

The Bruins are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road, losing at Houston (38-34) and Stanford (45-19), but beating Oregon State (27-19). They are 1-6 ATS away dating back to last year.

UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday games, last losing at Oregon 60-13 as 26 ½-point dogs in Oct. 2010. Prince was not surprisingly hurt for that game as injuries have really marred his career.

This is a must-win for UCLA as it’s only a half-game behind Arizona State in the Pac-12 South. Every other division team is winless in the conference besides ineligible USC.

Arizona (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) is one of the most disappointing teams in college football, with most pundits predicting at least a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Pac-12 South and ahead of UCLA.

The only win this year was the opening game (41-10) over FCS Northern Arizona. There have been five straight losses (1-4 ATS) since with a brutal stretch that included top-10 Oklahoma State, Stanford and Oregon, plus a tough one at USC.

Coach Mike Stoops survived the first four losses, but the administration saw enough after a 37-27 loss at formerly winless Oregon State on October 8. Stoops finished his eight-year Arizona career with a 10-game losing streak (2-8 ATS) against FBS opponents.

Interim coach Tim Kish had the bye week to prepare and the former defensive coordinator has a big challenge. His own defense ranks just 115th in the nation at 487.7 YPG. No team besides Northern Arizona has scored less than 37 points, with the ‘over’ 3-0 in the last three.

Offensively, Nick Foles is second in the country in passing yards (2,255), but the running game is providing no balance at 71.8 YPG, second-worst in the country. UCLA was woeful against Houston’s Case Keenum (30-of-40, 310 yards) and Stanford’s Andrew Luck (23-of-27, 227 yards) and Foles will move the ball with his 71.5 completion percentage.

The hope is that the combination of the new coach and the Thursday night home game will motivate both the players and the fans. Still, it’s surprising the Wildcats opened as over a field goal favorite.

Stoops and Arizona did have success against UCLA, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings. Arizona is also 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in the last four meetings at home.

Both teams have several players listed as questionable. Arizona receiver Juron Criner (knee) is probable and he’s the second-leading receiver with 340 yards, although the biggest talent.

Weather in the desert should be in the 80s at kickoff, but dip more comfortably into the 70s as the game progresses.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:07 PM

West Virginia, Syracuse Orange Friday Night ESPN

The Big East takes center stage Friday night as the Syracuse Orange host the West Virginia Mountaineers in an ESPN prime-time broadcast.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) from the Carrier Dome. West Virginia is currently a 14-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

This game will kick off at the same time as another Big East matchup, Rutgers at Louisville, which will be televised on ESPN2. If Rutgers and West Virginia both win this week, it could set the stage for a big conference showdown between two 6-1 teams next week when the Scarlett Knights host the Mountaineers.

West Virginia (5-1) is off to a strong start this season, the only loss coming to the LSU Tigers who rank fourth in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and first in the BCS. The Mountaineers are only 3-3 ATS, but are 3-1 ATS over their last four games.

Geno Smith has emerged as a star under center for West Virginia, passing for 2,159 yards and 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions through the first six games of the season. Against Syracuse’s suspect secondary (giving up 293 yards per game through the air), look for Smith to have another big game Friday night.

He threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns in West Virginia’s last game against Connecticut.

Syracuse (4-2) has won each of its four games this season by a touchdown or less, and lost to Rutgers by a field goal; every game has been close with the exception of a 38-17 loss on the road to USC back in September. The Orange are 2-4 ATS.

Statistically, Syracuse ranks in the bottom half of the nation in passing yards, rushing yards, total offense and total defense. Those stats are particularly alarming when early season opponents included the Toledo Rockets, Tulane Green Wave and the FCS Rhode Island Rams.

Syracuse will need its best effort of the season to have a shot at upsetting West Virginia at home.

The Orange did pull of just such an upset last season in West Virginia, when they went on the road as a 13 ½-point underdog and beat the Mountaineers, 19-14. Smith had the worst game of his career in that game, passing for only 178 yards and throwing three interceptions.

Last season marked the first time West Virginia had lost to Syracuse since 2001. The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Orange. West Virginia is 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four trips to Syracuse.

Both of these teams have trended ‘over’ in total betting recently, with the ‘over’ cashing the last five West Virginia games and five of Syracuse’s last seven. That goes against this series’ recent history, in which five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone ‘under,’ including each of the last three.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 07:31 PM

College football odds: Week 8 opening line report

It can't keep going this way, can it? The best teams in the country are covering the spread regardless of how high the numbers oddsmakers are posting.

The top 10 teams in the AP poll are 17-1-1 and double-digit favorites are 28-8-1 both against the spread over the last two weeks. Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State and Wisconsin are a combined 37-7-1 ATS this season.

Sportsbook managers are trying to adjust but the big faves in college football keep covering those monster spreads.

"Shame on us for not seeing the separation of talent sooner," MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jay Rood told *********** heading into last Saturday's games.

Still, the books needed a late Kansas cover against the Sooners to prevent a historically awful day.

"Oklahoma covers and it could have been one or the worst Saturday ever," Hilton Las Vegas race and sportsbook director Jay Kornegay told *********** in an email Sunday morning.

You can bet the oddsmakers didn't want to experience another Saturday rooting for the underdogs in college football. The spreads are big and so are the stakes for BCS championship hopefuls.

We talked to Pete Korner, founder of the line consultant group Sports Club in Las Vegas, to find out his recommended spreads and compared them to the Wynn Las Vegas' opening numbers.

Washington (+20) at Stanford

Andrew Luck and Co. struggled for a half vs. Washington State, but still recovered and blew the Cougars away by the end of the night. Not much value with the underdogs vs. Stanford when stuff like that happens.

“We’re going to take the highest number we can with Stanford the rest of the way,” said Korner, who recommended a spread three points larger to his clients. “At some of the other books in Reno and Tahoe, places close to Stanford and Northern California, they keep getting players coming over and betting Stanford, Stanford, Stanford. They don’t care what the number is. So, we’re going to keep erring on the side of the big favorites.”

Auburn (+21) at LSU

Let the BCS posturing begin. With the standings out, LSU can continue its pursuit of style points against a rival.

“We keep getting burned by the favorites up on top of the rankings,” Korner said. “So, we had to go high. I think Auburn can cover it, but it won’t be easy.”

Korner sent out Auburn +20 while the Wynn posted Tigers -21 as their opening number. LSU was bet up a half point soon afterward.

Air Force (+29.5) at Boise State

More of the same for the Broncos, who as always, need bigger blowouts than the big boys of the SEC to stay in the mix. Korner and company sent out BSU +28.

“We went as high as we could go,” Korner said. “It’s all about how much do they want it. They most likely won’t let up.”

The Wynn went a little higher, going over the four TD-spread at 29.5.

Tennessee (+27.5) at Alabama

Just goes to show you just how good these top-tier SEC teams are. Here’s a classic, southern rivalry, and the spread is almost four touchdowns.

“You would think in the SEC, these games would be close,” Korner said. “But not this year. The talent differential is glaring, and with these big teams, especially at home, it’s no contest.”

Texas Tech (+25.5) at Oklahoma

Don’t forget about the Sooners, who just keep on trucking. Their schedule hasn’t worked in their favor, so they’re trying to make up for it with high scores.

“We’re starting to overvalue the favorites here. We have no choice,” Korner said. “This is a home game for Oklahoma, and too much on the line for them not to keep it going.”

Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan State

The Spartans are an improved bunch, but they might be a tad hung over after exposing Michigan on Saturday. And surging Wisconsin might be out of their real-estate district anyhow. The Wynn posted a surprisingly low spread at Badgers -7 while Korner’s group sent out MSU +8.

“I would have liked it higher than 8, but didn’t want to put my personal feelings into it,” Korner said. “Both teams are playing well, and Michigan State might just be good enough to cover. But the spread might go up to 11 by then. We figure 8 is the right number for a road team in the Big Ten. But Wisconsin is really good.”

UCLA (+4) at Arizona

With a week off and a new coach, Tim Kish, the defensive coordinator who will serve as interim after Mike Stoops was let go, there is a thought that a change will do the Wildcats some good.

“That, and we haven’t been impressed with UCLA,” Korner said. “With Arizona, there’s not much there, either. But we do believe there will be a renewed energy.”

Korner’s group sent out UCLA +5.5.

West Virginia (-13.5) at Syracuse

The Mountaineers, the best of a bad conference, can truly start to flex their muscles now that the BCS standings are out.

“West Virginia is better than they’ve showed, and they’ll be coming off a week off, as well,” Korner said. “This will be theirs to win or lose. Syracuse won’t be able to put up much of a fight for too long.”

The Wynn’s opening number was the same as Korner’s recommendation to his client sportsbooks.

North Carolina (+11) at Clemson

The darlings of the ACC, Clemson struggled some, but still had enough to get by Maryland and keep its perfect season intact. Las Vegas was watching.

“We were disappointed in Clemson a little,” said Korner, who sent out UNC +15. “But we think they can bounce back here. I thought they could really put up a big number here, so I wanted to take that into account.”

The Wynn got bet down to 9.5 almost immediately after opening Clemson -11.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 11:37 PM

Game of the day: Florida International at Arkansas State

Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 54)

Mid-week Sun Belt football is back, featuring a nationally televised matchup between a pair of teams trying to stay alive in the conference race.

Florida International was an early-season ATS dynamo, winning its first three games and covering the spread in each. But an injury to star wide receiver/kick returner T.Y. Hilton led to losses in two of the Golden Panthers’ last three, with their only win coming against an Akron team that is considered among the absolute worst in the nation. Hilton will play Tuesday.

The Golden Panthers haven’t covered the spread since upsetting Central Florida on Sept. 19 and must travel to Jonesboro, Ark., as short road dogs.

Arkansas State has played well for first-year coach Hugh Freeze and has covered in five of six. The Red Wolves bounced back from a bad loss at Western Kentucky with a solid road conference win at Louisiana-Monroe on Oct. 8.

THE LINE

Arkansas State opened as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. Early money came in on the Red Wolves, pushing the number to as high as 3.5. The number had settled back at -3 as of Monday afternoon.

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Florida International boasts a balanced offensive attack, orchestrated by quarterback Wes Carroll, a transfer from Mississippi State. The Golden Panthers average 248 passing yards and 156 on the ground. They’re not only excellent at getting to the passer (2.83 sacks, 19th nationally), but they also protect Carroll well, allowing just over one sack per game (32nd nationally).

Protecting the quarterback will be key, as Arkansas State also ranks high in sacks (2.67, 22nd). The Red Wolves, however, have been susceptible to pressure and are surrendering more than two sacks (2.17, 73rd). Of course, they throw it a lot, too, with junior quarterback Ryan Aplin. His favorite target is Josh Jarboe, a highly-touted recruit, who originally signed with Oklahoma.

Arkansas State is 15th in passing offense at 303.5 yards, tops in the Sun Belt.

INJURIES

Hilton, arguably the best pro prospect in the conference, appeared to be back at full strength in the win over Akron. He caught 12 passes for 144 yards against the Zips for his fourth 100-yard receiving game this season.

The Golden Panther also expect a boost from the return of wide out Jacob Younger, who missed the Akron game.

Arkansas State is reporting no injuries.

LAST MEETING

Carroll connected on a 42-yard touchdown pass to Hilton with less than two minutes to play, lifting the Golden Panthers to a 31-24 win over Arkansas State. Florida International held Aplin to just 126 yards passing in the win.

TRENDS

Florida International is 1-8 ATS in its last nine October games.

Florida International is 9-13 ATS as a road dog under coach Mario Cristobal.

Florida International is 0-3 all-time in Jonesboro.

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings, with the games averaging 44.6 points.

The Under is 7-1 in Red Wolves’ last eight.

Arkansas State is 10-20 ATS in its last 30 conference games.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 11:57 PM

Recent Trends | In Depth

Florida International:

FLINT are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October.

Arkansas State:

Under is 7-1 in ARKST last 8 games overall.

Under is 8-2-1 in ARKST last 11 games in October.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:27 PM

4th Quarter Covers

October 18, 2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the college games that went down to the wire relative to the spread for Week 7. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games.
San Jose State (+6.5) 28 Hawaii 27

San Jose State had a 20-7 lead at halftime but Hawaii led 21-20 entering the fourth quarter in an ugly primetime matchup that featured 12 turnovers. Hawaii got past the spread early in the fourth quarter with a 32-yard run but the extra-point was blocked and returned for 2-point for San Jose State, a play that would prove critical. After another San Jose State turnover the Warriors were in position to pad the lead but the field goal attempt was blocked. San Jose State connected for a big play to get into scoring range but inexplicably there was another fumble. Hawaii did its best to run out the clock but ultimately had to punt with just over a minute to go, pinning San Jose State back deep in its own zone but the Spartans put together a great scoring drive to lead by one, missing the 2-point conversion. Hawaii’s final drive came up short and San Jose State scored the upset.

Rutgers (-3) 21 Navy 20

Navy took a 17-14 lead into the fourth quarter as a slight underdog but Rutgers answered with a scoring drive early in the fourth quarter to take the lead for the first time since the first quarter, getting just past the late week spreads. Navy answered with a nice drive but had to settle for field goal, getting within the spread but still a point short on the scoreboard. On its next possession Rutgers was intercepted deep in its own territory to set up Navy to take the lead, but the field goal was blocked. Rutgers then went down the field, looking to milk the clock. Navy was able to get a third down stop and left about 30 seconds on the clock as Rutgers lined up a spread changing field goal. Incredibly that pick was blocked as well, sealing the one-point margin and the underdog cover.

Toledo (-9.5) 28 Bowling Green 21

Toledo had a massive yardage edge but both teams often failed to cash in with points in game that was heavily impacted by strong winds. Bowling Green scored on a 4th and 25 Hail Mary at the end of the first half to tie the game but Toledo would score first in the second half. Bowling Green tied the game early in the fourth quarter and then forced a 3-and-out, seemingly taking momentum in the game. A quick interception set the Rockets up for its next score to lead by seven. After stopping Bowling Green on downs late in the fourth, the Rockets appeared in position to earn an unlikely cover as they broke a few big plays to go up 28-14 with just over a minute to go. Bowling Green would spoil the party for Toledo backers as the kickoff return was returned for a touchdown.

South Carolina (-3.5) 14 Mississippi State 12

A 7-7 tie went into the fourth quarter after a scoreless third quarter in this SEC clash. Mississippi State put a field goal up to take the lead with less than ten minutes to go. South Carolina answered with a great drive to go nearly 80 yards and take six minutes off the clock, taking the lead at 14-10 with less than four minutes to go, sitting just past the spread. Mississippi State drove into South Carolina territory but an interception ended the threat however the scoring was not yet finished. The Gamecocks were not quite able to just take a knee to burn all the time off the clock and Steve Spurrier and QB Connor Shaw did not make many friends among Gamecocks bettors as Shaw ran out of the end zone after time expired for a spread changing safety rather than risking a punt deep in its own territory.

Oregon (-14.5) 41 Arizona State 27

Arizona State led 24-21 early in the third quarter but Oregon could not be held down any further. The Ducks had back-to-back touchdown drives in less than two minutes to enter the fourth quarter up by eleven and a field goal early in the fourth to complete a drive pushed the lead to 14, right on or near the spread. Arizona State answered with a field goal shortly thereafter but then the Ducks did the same thing with a chip shot with just over nine minutes to go. The scoring would stop there even though Arizona State threatened on its final drive.

LSU (-17) 38 Tennessee 7

The Tigers were right on the number entering the fourth quarter at 24-7 but it was only a matter of time as LSU would complete two more scoring drives in the fourth quarter while Tennessee never really threatened to score again.

Stanford (-20) 44 Washington State 14

Sharp action was on the underdog in this game and it looked smart early as Stanford led just 10-7 at the half and only 24-7 after a late third quarter scored. The Cardinal continue to be a team that scores deep into the game however as Stanford scored twice more, pushing the lead to 38-7 with just over four minutes to go. Washington State managed to find the end zone with just seconds on the clock to make the score look more respectable but fittingly Stanford returned the ensuing kickoff 96-yards for a touchdown.

Iowa (-6) 41 Northwestern 31

This was a tie game entering the fourth quarter at 17-17 but a lot of points would be scored late in the game. Iowa put together two strong touchdown drives surrounding Northwestern settling for a field goal to take charge of the game, leading 31-20 and past the spread. Northwestern fumbled on its next possession to set up an Iowa field goal and while the Wildcats cut the lead back to ten points on its next possession the onside kick failed and Iowa was able to rush for a touchdown a few plays later, forcing Northwestern to use its timeouts in the process. Northwestern would score again but the onside kick again failed to leave the margin at ten points.

Fresno State (+3) 31 Utah State 21

Utah State had the early lead in this WAC contest that will be meaningful in the standings. The Aggies led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter, just past the narrow road favorite spread. Utah State would miss a short field goal early in the fourth quarter to which Fresno State answered with a long scoring drive to take the lead. The Aggies fumbled on its next possession to set up Fresno State on a short field which they took advantage of. Utah State would miss another field goal late in the game, the third missed kick of the game. After three touchdowns in its first four possessions, Utah State would not score again as Fresno State rallied.

Louisiana (-9) 30 North Texas 10

The Ragin’ Cajuns led just 13-10 at the half and entering the fourth quarter after a quiet third. Shortly into the fourth quarter Louisiana hit a long pass play to go up 20-10 and past the spread for the first time and took advantage of North Texas miscues to pad the lead late.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:34 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 122-*102-*5 54.46% +4900

Tuesday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida International - 8:00 PM ET Arkansas State -3 500

Arkansas State - Under 52.5 500

**Kaptain** · 10-18-2011, 06:12 PM

gl tonight Bum......

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 06:15 PM

Thanks Kapt.....same back to you bradda.......

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 06:30 PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers Meet Minnesota Golden Gophers

It's been a tumultuous season for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They'll take to the field once again in Big Ten action on Saturday afternoon when they duke it out with the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Saturday's afternoon kickoff from TCF Bank Stadium is slated for 3:30 (ET), with regional television coverage set for ABC.

The Golden Gophers (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have already had some woeful results this year. In three straight games, they have been beaten by 28 by the Purdue Boilermakers, 58 by the Michigan Wolverines, and 13 by the North Dakota State Bison. Needless to say, that's not exactly the way that head coach Jerry Kill wanted to start off his tenure at Minnesota.

It seems obvious that very few of the numbers are going to look pretty for Minnesota. It is averaging just 300.3 YPG and 18.0 PPG, ranking No. 110 and No. 109 in the country respectively.

On the other side of the ball, the Golden Gophers are conceding 414.2 YPG, which ranks No. 93 in the country. They are also No. 109 in scoring defense at 35.0 PPG.

The worst part about this season for Minnesota is that things are only going to get worse. There have already been at least three teams on the schedule that won't sniff bowl eligibility in 2011 (and we didn't even include the ineligible USC Trojans in that threesome), and the last six games of the campaign could all be against bowl teams.

MarQueis Gray has shown some flashes of potential in his first full year as the starting quarterback for Minnesota. He's a dual threat with a team-leading 371 yards on the ground to go with his 625 yards through the air. However, he also has thrown just three touchdown passes against four picks, and he has given way to freshman Max Shortell in four of Minnesota's five games.

The Cornhuskers (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS) have to feel good about their positioning right now in the Big Ten. They were beaten by the Wisconsin Badgers in their first ever Big Ten game, but still in position to win the Legends Division if they can run the table from here.

Nebraska enters this week ranked No. 13 in the BCS standings, but just No. 19 in the DonBest Linemakers Poll.

This ground game has to be licking its chops to go against a Minnesota rush defense that is allowing 166.5 YPG. The Cornhuskers are ranked No. 11 in rushing at 246.8 YPG thanks to their dual-threat quarterback and a potential All-American at running back.

Taylor Martinez hasn't truly excelled as a passer yet in his year and a half in Lincoln. He is only completing 54.3 percent of his passes and has the same number of touchdown passes as interceptions (six). However, Martinez does have 584 yards rushing and nine TDs to make up for his deficiencies as a passer.

Rex Burkhead split carries with Roy Helu before this season, but now that he has the backfield essentially to himself, he is really showing what he can do. The junior already has 635 rushing yards and 10 total trips to the end zone.

These two teams last met in a home and home series in 1989 and 1990. Nebraska won the two games by the aggregate score of 104-0.

Minnesota is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cornhuskers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as double-digit road favorites.

The NCAA football odds opened up this week with Nebraska favored by 25-points. That line has since stayed relatively steady, though it has come down at some outlets to 24½. The total has remained steady at 56½.

Expect a chilly afternoon at TCF Bank Stadium, as temperatures will start in the low-50s and dip into the mid-40s as the game progresses. There is a minimal chance of rain.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 06:31 PM

Texas A&M Aggies, Iowa State Big 12 Preview

The game may be taking place one pasture north of Missouri in Iowa, but my challenge to the Texas A&M Aggies remains, "Show me."

Mike Sherman and the Aggies go to Iowa State this week for a matchup with the Cyclones, their slim Big 12 hopes in tow as 21-point favorites for the 3:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff. The game is part of the ABC regional package, meaning I should be able to watch it for all its glory or carnage while sitting in the beautiful Texas Hill Country.

My, uh, the Aggies finally showed they could play a full 60 minutes of football this past week with a 55-28 romp over the Baylor Bears. Favored by eight at home, A&M rolled behind close to 700 yards of offense and the huge games by Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Swope.

But it was Baylor.

Texas A&M survived an early turnover and seemed to find a groove after the Bears missed a short field goal following a lengthy drive nearly midway through the second quarter. Tannehill and Swope certainly caught fire from that point on, the duo hooking up twice in the final 8:16 of the second quarter to help the Ags to a 24-14 halftime lead.

The pair combined twice more on second half scores and there was no late collapse by A&M this time. Tannehill had six touchdown tosses on the day and the Aggies also rushed for 266 yards.

But it was Baylor.

Art Briles has done a great job in Waco; Robert Griffin III is a fantastic athlete. But had Texas A&M taken care of business against Arkansas and Oklahoma State, the Aggies would've been favored by 14 over the Bears and still almost doubled that 'cover.'

Iowa State's best shot at a win the rest of the way is a home date with Kansas a couple of weeks from now. Paul Rhoads is very fortunate to have the Cyclones level at 3-3 entering this game. The team's three wins to begin the season included a narrow escape here in Ames over Northern Iowa as 6½-point favorites.

A home upset over Iowa and road upset at Connecticut followed, but Iowa State has dropped the last three outright and against the spread coming into this one.

This game really has nothing to do with the Cyclones. They may cover, indeed, I wouldn't at all be surprised if they won straight up. This game still has everything to do with the Aggies who need to gain a little mojo with a solid effort on the road, if they are to have any hope in Norman a couple of weeks from now.

Saturday's total is 65½, with each squad 4-2 to the 'over' on the season. Both defenses rank in triple-digits in yards allowed; A&M is dead last in passing yards allowed, and Iowa State is 111th giving it up on the ground. If you're looking for old-fashioned smash-mouth defense this Saturday, Jack Trice Stadium is not the place to be.

Current weather forecasts are calling for a decent enough day in Ames, low-60s under partly cloudy skies for the kickoff.

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