The Bum's CFB Week # 8 Best Bets 10/18-10/22 !

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Texas Tech 28-Point 'Dog At Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma has covered seven of the last 10 matchups with Texas Tech.
The Oklahoma Sooners debuted at No. 3 in the initial BCS rankings released on Sunday and will look to remain unbeaten on Saturday when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big 12 battle.

The Sooners (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) lead a group of five teams from the Big 12 in the BCS Top 25 and are ranked second in the Don Best Linemakers Poll behind the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and ahead of the No. 3 LSU Tigers, who currently hold the top spot in the BCS rankings.

Game time is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) with regional television coverage provided by ABC.

Oklahoma is coming off another relatively easy victory last Saturday on the road against the Kansas Jayhawks, 47-17. Quarterback Landry Jones threw for 363 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while wide receiver Ryan Broyles set the NCAA record for most career receptions, grabbing 13 for a career-high 215 yards, including two touchdowns.

Broyles needed four to pass Purdue’s Taylor Stubblefield and broke the mark on a 57-yard touchdown catch with 7:50 remaining in the second quarter.

The schedule figures to get tougher for the Sooners after they face the Red Raiders (4-2, 1-2), who have lost two straight at home against a couple other Top 25 BCS teams from the Big 12 in the Texas A&M Aggies and Kansas State Wildcats. Oklahoma has to play both the Wildcats and Aggies in consecutive weeks following this matchup with Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have alternated wins and losses with the Sooners over the previous seven years, which would seem to put them in line for a victory this week considering they lost last year’s meeting, 45-7. However, Oklahoma opened as a 28-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up to -29 at some sportsbooks.

The Sooners are 7-3 against the spread in the past 10 meetings.

Texas Tech lost starting running back Eric Stephens (570 rushing yards) for the season with a dislocated knee a week ago, and fifth-year senior Aaron Crawford filled in with 91 yards on 21 carries in a 41-34 loss to Kansas State last Saturday. The Red Raiders failed to cover the spread as 3 ½-point favorites as QB Seth Doege struggled despite throwing for 461 yards. He threw one touchdown pass and three interceptions, including one that was returned 24 yards for a touchdown just 37 seconds into the game.

Doege ranks fourth in the country with 2,167 passing yards, just 10 behind Oklahoma’s Jones. But he had only thrown one pick before tossing three against the Wildcats while Jones has six on the season.

The key to this game could very well be pass defense, with Texas Tech ranking 21st nationally, allowing 187.7 yards per game through the air and seven touchdowns with four interceptions. The Sooners have a solid secondary as well and are ranked 35th, giving up 201.2 yards per game and five touchdowns with nine picks.

The weather forecast for Norman on Saturday calls for a high temperature of 75 with a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

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USC Trojans At Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Tommy Rees is coming off a 4-TD effort two weeks ago vs. Air Force.
The Jeweled Shillelagh will be on the line Saturday in one of college football’s most historic rivalries when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the USC Trojans.

Saturday’s game is set to start at 7:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on NBC. The Don Best odds screen currently lists the Fighting Irish as a 9-point favorite.

While neither team is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 or the BCS Standings, both are ranked in the top 25 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll. USC comes in at No. 23, while Notre Dame is more highly respected at No. 9.

USC (5-1) not only picked up its first win on the road last week in a 30-9 victory over California, but also turned in the best defensive effort of the season. The Trojans allowed only nine points and 329 yards of total offense, highlighted by allowing just 35 rushing yards against the Bears.

Unfortunately, the win came with a slew of injuries. Starting running back Marc Tyler dislocated his shoulder and cornerback Anthony Brown broke his ankle. USC’s secondary couldn’t afford another injury, as Brown was filling in for injured starter Torin Harris.

Notre Dame (4-2) could take advantage of USC’s secondary woes with a passing attack that is rounding into form. Tommy Rees threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in Notre Dame’s last game, a 59-33 win over Air Force.

After stumbling out of the gate to an 0-2 start with losses to South Florida and Michigan, Notre Dame has won four straight (3-1 ATS) and the Irish appear to be hitting their stride. While coach Brian Kelly is known for his offensive prowess, it has been Notre Dame’s defense that has been the team's biggest strength this season.

Southern Cal is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Notre Dame, but the tides may be turning back in Notre Dame’s favor. The Irish beat the Trojans for the first time since 2001 last season at the Coliseum, winning 20-16 as a 5-point underdog on the road.

The eight-game winning streak was the longest USC had ever had over Notre Dame in the 85-year history of the rivalry.

While USC is a respectable 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road, the Trojans are just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 road games. Notre Dame hasn’t fared much better covering the spread at home recently going 4-8-2 ATS in the last 14 home games. Both teams are 3-3 ATS on the season.

Five of the last seven games between USC and Notre Dame went ‘under’ the posted total. The total has also gone ‘under’ in four of USC’s last five games on the road and four of Notre Dame’s last five at home.

Cool and humid is the forecast for South Bend on Saturday. Kickoff should find the temps in the low-50s before dropping into the upper-30s overnight.

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Wisconsin Hits Road At Michigan State Spartans

Wisconsin looks to snap Michigan State’s 11-game home win streak.
The Wisconsin Badgers find themselves in an unusual position, on the road, when they play the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night.

Don Best has Wisconsin as 8-point favorites, with the total at 49-points. ESPN will broadcast at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Spartan Stadium, arguably the best game on the college football betting schedule.

The Badgers (6-0 straight up, 5-0-1 against the spread) haven’t played a true road game since before Thanksgiving of last year. Their six games this season have included five at Camp Randall Stadium and a neutral site contest versus Northern Illinois in Chicago.

The Wisconsin schedule has been filled with more ‘cupcakes’ than a bakery with one ranked opponent in Nebraska, four FBS foes with a combined record of 7-19 SU (9-16-1 ATS), plus FCS South Dakota. The smallest margin of victory is 31 points, a big reason for this pointspread.

The newly released BCS rankings take schedule into consideration with the computer rankings and that’s a big reason why Wisconsin is No. 6. The AP and Coaches Poll (both No. 4) and Don Best Linemakers Poll (No. 5) all rank the Badgers higher.

Coach Bret Bielema now takes his team to a place its historically struggled. The Badgers have lost three straight (1-2 ATS) at Michigan State, including last year 34-24 as 3-point favorites, their only regular season loss of the season.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in the last two and 7-1 the last eight meetings between the teams.

Wisconsin was controlled by Michigan State last season, losing the time of possession battle 36.5-23.5 minutes. Quarterback Scott Tolzien had one of his worst games of the year (11-of-25, 127 yards), but the team has a major upgrade in Russell Wilson.

Wilson steers the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense (50.2 PPG) and his leading 210.9 quarterback rating makes him a serious Heisman candidate. The best part is he won’t get rattled on the road as there’s no stage too big for the senior transfer.

Leading receiver Nick Toon (447 yards) is also probable to return after missing last week’s 59-7 win over Indiana with a foot injury.

The Badgers still love to pound the ball first with the hogs up front and backs Montee Ball and James White. The 257.5 YPG rushing ranks seventh nationally. Michigan State has been tremendous with run defense all year (67 YPG, third nationally), but this will be its biggest challenge.

The Badgers won their final three Big Ten road games last year (3-0 ATS) after losing at Michigan State. They’re 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 for Wisconsin this year and 11-4-1 in its last 16 overall.

The Spartans (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are ranked No. 16 in the BCS and No. 13 at Don Best. They moved ahead of in-state rival Michigan with a 28-14 home win last week as 3-point favorites.

The 42 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 47 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-1 on the year with the defense allowing just 10.8 PPG, among the nation’s leaders.

The offense has contributed to some low scoring affairs, its 28 PPG ranked just 65th. That number is slightly down from last year (29.5 PPG), a surprise given the return of quarterback Kirk Cousins, wide receiver B.J. Cunningham and running backs Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell.

Cousins has a solid 65.9 completion percentage, but his 7.6 yards per attempt is mediocre. Finding another consistent receiver outside of Cunningham (621 yards) has been a challenge. Baker is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but just broke 100-yards for the first time this year against Michigan (167 yards).

This offense can’t afford to be too conservative on Saturday. Lots of points need to be put on the board because it will be extremely hard to keep Wilson and company under 30.

The Spartans' only loss of the year (31-13) was at Notre Dame on September 17. They’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home and have an 11-game home winning streak.

Wisconsin’s defense has been tremendous statistically (9.7 PPG), but it’s nowhere near as talented as its offense, and has a lot to prove in a nationally televised night game against a quality opponent.

The injury situation for Michigan State has center Blake Treadwell (knee) and defensive end Tyler Hoover (back) both questionable after missing multiple games. Fellow defensive end William Gholston could be suspended after some personal fouls against Michigan.

Weather in East Lansing should be clear and dip into the 40s.

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News & Notes - Week 8

October 18, 2011

Editor's Note: Phil Steele and his Northcoast Sports stable have lit up the college football season with a 57% start after seven weeks of action. Get winners for Week 8 now. Click to win!
Week 8

USC delivered a winner on Thursday after taking advantage of 5 California TO's. In the 1H USC had a 187-132 yd edge and blew one opportunity off a TO by fumbling a snap on a fake FG. They settled for a 39 yd FG and also benefitted from stopping a Cal fake punt at the Cal37 which 5pl later resulted in a USC TD. The Trojans led 20-0 at the half en route to the 30-9 win...

Air Force was missing all 3 starting DL and got worn down by San Diego State in the 2H. Ronnie Hillman rushed for 172 yards for the Aztecs including 22 and 57 yd TD runs on B2B plays to blow open a close game. AF had a 215-160 yd edge at the half...

San Jose State beat Hawaii at home on a Friday night in front of a charged home crowd. The game featured a 2011 season high of 12 TO's with each team having 6. In the 1H SJS took advantage of some UH TO's and could have led by more than 20-7 as they missed a FG, settled for a FG and had an IR TD called back by a pers foul that was 40 yards behind the play. In the 2H SJS turned it over on their first 5 poss but one of the key plays of the game happened after UH had just taken the lead, 21-20. SJS turned it over after an 8pl drive at their own 40 and UH got a 32 yd TD run. The xp was blk'd and ret'd for 2 and instead of leading 28-20, it was 27-22. Each team missed a FG and SJS got a TD with :36 left to go up 28-27 and missed the 2 pt conv. UH only got as far as its own 39...

Miami, Fl. gained 263 of its 311 yards in the 1H and avoided their first 0-3 start in conf play in program history. They led 27-10 at the half with a 274-177 yd edge but North Carolina finished with a 429-311 yd edge. Giovanni Bernard became the school's first NC player to rush for at least 100 yards in 5 consec game since Ethan Horton in 1984. UM's Lamar Miller was held to 29 yards on 16 carries. Once NC got a TD with :46 left to pull within 30-24 they actually rec'd the onside kick and got to the UM30 but on 3&17 tried the lateral on the last play which came up short...

Wisconsin shelled Indiana 59-7 but it actually wasn't as bad as LY when they won 83-20. Trailing 14-0, Indy was SOD at the UW36 and UW drove 64 yds for a TD and after an int, drove 80 yds for a TD. They led 38-7 at the half but the yards were only 379-217 as IU was SOD at the UW36, int'd at the 20 and int'd setting up a UW39 yd TD in the final minute. In the 2H UW got a 60 yd PR for a TD and rec'd a fmbl by the IU QB for a TD with 9:17 left to close the scoring...

Missouri probably dominated Iowa State even more than the 52-17 margin although they did lose DT Terrell Resonno who inj'd his right knee in the 1H and DNR. Missouri opened the game with 10 straight runs, the first on a 50/8pl TD drive. They led 28-3 and had the ball at the ISU27 yd line when they were int'd and ret'd 78 yds for a TD. At the half MO had a 368-117 yd edge but only led 31-10. They expanded it to 52-10 in the 4Q and ISU went 74/6pl for a garbage TD and added 58 additional yards after that. Missouri had 13 yds on their final 4 poss with a backup QB...

Utah's D dominated Pittsburgh as they had a 251-120 yd edge. The Utes were without their QB Jordan Wynn (out for yr) and top WR DeVonte Christopher. Pitt appeared in control early thanks to special teams. The Panthers got a 10pl drive to open and punted and Utah went on a 12pl drive and settled for a 23 yd FG but Pitt got a 98 yd KR TD then blk'd a punt for a TD. The KR TD was their first since 2006 and the blk'd punt TD was their first since 1991 and they led 14-3 but Utah, with 2:07 left in the half, with QB Hays under heavy pressure, threw a pass which tipped off the LB's hand, over a DB and into WR Matthews hands which he took 33 yards for a TD to pull them within 14-13. Utah took a lead with a FG on the opening drive of the 3Q and never trailed again in a game played in 20-36 mph winds. Pitt trailed 19-13 when they were SOD at the Utah35 on 4&3 with backup QB Anderson in. On the next drive on 3&10 Anderson was int'd and ret'd 23 yds for a TD with 1:10 left for a somewhat misleading 26-14 final...

Virginia delivered the outright upset against Georgia Tech last Saturday, proving that teams with extra time to prepare for GT's option usually do well and Virginia upended #12 GT which had been off to its best start since 1966. UVA had 407-296 yd and 21-17 FD edges. UVA went 73/4pl and 45/12pl for TD's on their first 2 poss to lead 14-0. GT got a 32 yd IR TD to pull back to 14-14 with 8:24 left in the half but UVA went 72/10pl and 21/8pl (after int) for a TD and a 36 yd FG and led 24-14 at the half with a 272-154 yd edge. GT opened the 3Q with an 85/19pl drive for a TD, 24-21 but punted on their next 3 poss and UVA took over at their 23 with 5:58 left in the game and would get 5 FD's on the 69/13pl drive taking a knee at the GT6...

Marshall benched QB starter Rakeem Cato and AJ Graham hit just 11-22-99 yds but rushed for 129 yards on 20 carries and was the team's leading rusher. Rice finished with a 361-328 yd edge. Marshall went 69/1pl and 87/11pl for TD's, 14-0 and Rice went on 43 and 50 yd drives for 2 FG's, 14-6 at the half. Rice battled back to take a 20-17 lead. MU rec'd a fmbl at the Rice25 but was int'd at the 8 with 11:42 left and after 4 punts, Rice fmbl'd at their own 23 with 3:31 left. MU converted on 4&10 and went 23/5pl to get a 4 yd TD run by Martinez with 1:49 left to take the lead. Rice was SOD at their own 33 on 4&13...

Dan Herron ret'd to the lineup for Ohio State and rushed for 114 yards. Braxton Miller hit just 1-4 passes for 17 yards as the Buckeyes kept it on the ground but his only completion was a 17 yd TD pass to Jake Stoneburner to put the Buckeyes up 17-7. OSU did not throw its first pass until 7:22 mark in the 2Q. Illinois had a 285-228 yd edge and OSU went 45/10pl for a 43 yd FG to open and the next 9 poss resulted in punts. At the half OSU had a 105-95 yd edge. UI was int'd and ret'd 37 yds to the 12 and Herron got a 12 yd TD run on the next play, 10-0 early 3Q. OSU rec'd a fmbl'd at the UI22 and on 3&5 got a 17 yd TD pass to Stoneburner 17-0. UI went 80/15pl for a 3 yd TD pass. UI's last drives ended on an int at the OSU20 (from midfield) and a 41/8pl drive that was SOD at the OSU16 with 1:11 left...

Colorado was last in the P12 in TD passes allowed while Washington was #1 in the P12 in TD passes. Keith Price had 4 TD passes in the 1H as UW rolled up a 379-104 yd edge and led 44-10. UW scored on all 6 poss in the 1H. Price was pulled with 1:05 left in the 3Q and on Nick Montana's first ever snap as a UW QB, he fumbled setting up a CU 36/6pl TD drive which pulled them within 45-24. UW got a TD with 2:32 left for the 52-24 final. CU is a banged up team without top WR Paul Richardson, top rusher Stewart and numerous DB's...

Michigan State is now 4-0 since the Mike Hart's infamous "little brother" comment. The Spartans held Michigan's potent offense to 250 yards and had 333 yards on offense. It was MSU's first 4 game win streak in the series since 1962. MSU had 6 sacks for 54 yards while the Wolverines had zero sacks. MSU rushed for 213 yards on 39 carries while UM rushed for 82 yards on 36 carries. It was tied at 7 and MSU had a 162-138 yd edge and the Spartans had leads of 14-7 and 21-7. UM got a 34 yd TD pass with 9:49 left then rec'd a fmbl but on 4&1 Robinson was tackled for a 10 yd loss. On the next drive Robinson was int'd and ret'd 39 yds for a TD to put the Spartans up 28-14 with 4:31 left to clinch it. UM was SOD at their own 46 with 3:18 left and the Spartans ended the game at the UM 21...

Matt Simms made his first start of the season for Tennessee and hit 6-20-128 and 2 int. It was the 2nd straight bkp QB LSU has now faced. The key play of the game happened at the end of a scoreless 1Q. UT was at the LSU42 when Simms threw into the EZ and was int'd and ret'd 89 yds to the 5. That set up an LSU TD and a 7-0 lead. LSU then got a 10 yd PR setting up a 36/7pl drive for a TD to lead 14-0. It was 17-7 at the half. LSU had 3 poss in the 2H. They went 66/12pl, 99/16pl for TD's to put them up 31-7. After Tenn was SOD on 4&7 at the LSU35, the Tigers went 65/10pl and on 4&3 got a 14 yd TD pass with 1:35 left. UT which had run for negative yards vs. both Florida and Georgia rushed for 111 yds on LSU...

The Penn State-Purdue game was played in a heavy wind as were many games in the Midwest. At the end of the half, PSU on 3&10 threw a TD pass where the rec caught the ball in both hands and had both feet down but it was punched away and ruled incomplete. PSU settled for a FG, 10-6. PSU led 20-12 and was at the PU23 when a pass into the EZ was tipped into the air bouncing off both the DB and WR and their feet and it was ret'd 50 yds and PU got a TD to pull within 20-18. PSU got a 98 yd KR and their KR Powell just flipped the ball towards the ref but was called for a 15 yd pen which took the ball from the 3 back to the 18 and PSU settled for a 29 yd FG. PSU finished the game at the PU5 taking a knee...

Shovels of dirt were being thrown on Florida State after their 3rd straight loss but they dominated Duke with a 481-289 yd edge as EJ Manuel returned to the starting lineup but hit just 9-14-239. The game was tied 3-3 when FSU went 60/2pl for a TD then after a 26 yd PR went 64/4pl and 95/7pl for TD's to blow it open, 24-3. At half they had a 286-106 yd edge. Duke recovered a pair of onside kicks in the 2H and got within 34-16 but a 3rd onside kick was rec'd by FSU and the Seminoles went 39 yards for a TD in just 4 plays...

Central Florida actually had a 184-144 yd edge vs. SMU in the 1H but allowed a 47 yd PR setting up a 19 yd TD drive and also allowed a 92 yd PR TD by Richard Crawford so they trailed 17-3 at the half and never got within 14 points the rest of the game...

Texas had a 24-21 FD edge vs. Oklahoma State but the Cowboys had a 420-370 yd edge. UT controlled the ball for 39:18 but had trouble punching it in. UT was SOD on 4&3 at the OSU32, settled for a 34 yd FG after a 10pl drive and trailed 21-10 at the half. Each team got a 100 yd KR for a TD to open the 3Q, 28-17. UT pulled within 28-24 but then gave up a 74 yd TD run with 4:14 left in the 3Q to fall down 14 pts. UT on 4&3 had an open receiver but was caught inches short of the EZ on 4th & gl. UT was sk'd & fmbl'd at the OSU43 and int'd at the OSU47 on their final 2 poss...

Brandon Ogletree had a big game forcing TO's on 2 straight poss with an int and 1 FF but BYU only turned those poss into 3 pts. Thanks to a 51 yd IR TD BYU and Oregon State were tied at 14 at the half despite BYU having a 222-141 yd edge. BYU was up 21-14 when OSU turned it over those 3 times and 24-14 after. OSU got a TD to pull within 24-21 but BYU got a TD with 10:39 left and then OSU missed a 48 yd FG and BYU went 69/6pl for a TD with 3:37 left to make it 38-21. OSU went 63/16pl getting a TD with :23 left for the 38-28 final...

Kansas State delivered yet another outright upset, this time over Texas Tech. KSU got a 24 yd IR TD early and then added a 100 yd KR for a TD to lead 14-13. They missed the xp but Coach Snyder, unlike some other coaches in college ball (Lane Kiffin) doesn't go for 2 unless needed and KSU would score 3 TD's in the 2Q and 3Q and not once did Snyder go for the odd 2 points which helped the Cats stay ahead by 7 at the end of the game. At half TT actually led 28-20 with a 389-94 yd edge and had 2 FG's blk'd. KSU got a TD on the last play of the 3Q to take a 34-31 lead and would not relinquish it and KSU in the 4Q was SOD at the TT27 and missed a 31 yd FG. TT got a 19 yd FG with 2:32 left then rec'd the onside kick but on 4&4 fired incomplete from the KSU47 and the Wildcats remain unbeaten...

Trent Richardson may have had a Heisman moment vs. Mississippi with a 76 yd TD run where he had 4 players cornering him on the sidelines at the end of a run, stopped and started up again and got the TD. Richardson rushed for 188 yards. Alabama actually gave up a 59 yd pass on the 3rd play of the game and Miss got a TD 2pl later for a stunning 7-0 lead. The Rebels had 72 yards on that drive and 69 yds the rest of the game as Bama finished with a 615-141 yd edge in their dominating 52-7 win...

Stanford turned the ball over 3 times all year but had 2 TO's in the 1H vs. Washington State. As usual, SU struggled a bit in the 1H, in fact the FD's were even at 8 and SU only led 10-7. SU would score TD's on 3 of their first 4 2H poss to go up 31-7. WSU was SOD on 4&8 at the SU9 with 10:31 left. SU went 91/12pl getting a TD with 4:26 left to make it 38-7. WSU gave Jeff Tuel the start as he ret'd from his collarbone inj but they brought in Marshall Lobbestael and he guided the Cougars 80/12pl for a TD with :14 left to make it 38-14 but Montgomery ret'd the ensuing KO 96 yds for a TD on what turned out to the be the final play of the game and SU won by 30...

Things did not look good for Virginia Tech early as Wake Forest had a 10-0 lead and a 122-2 yd edge after 1Q but VT would dominate the 2Q with 3 TD's, the 3rd coming after WF was int'd at their own 27 with :30 left in the half and VT went for it on the last play of the half and got a TD run by Thomas. VT had a 207-41 yd edge in the 2Q and opened the 3Q with an 80/6pl drive for a TD and rolled to a 38-17 win with a 473-320 yd edge...

Auburn and Florida both came in with major ? at QB and none of the ?'s were answered. Seven different players took snaps at QB. UF #2 QB Driskell was ? coming in and obviously not 100% but he was brought into the game in the 2H after Jacoby Brissett started and hit 5-10-45. AU starting QB Barrett Trotter has now lost confidence and hit 2-8-33 with Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier also seeing action. UF fmbl'd 2 punts setting up a 32/3pl TD drive and 22/6pl drive for a FG which was the majority of AU's offense. UF had a couple of long drives end in settling for short FG's then at the end were SOD at the AU16 after an 11 pl drive but AU finished with a 278-194 yd edge.

FRONTDOOR/BACKDOOR COVERS

A couple of blk'd FG's cost Navy an outright win and Rutgers a frontdoor cover in the last 5:00. RU had 423-305 yd and 22-15 FD edges. RU missed a 52 yd FG, fmbl'd at the Navy2 at the end of a 75/10pl drive but Navy was SOD at the 5 at the end of a 68/12pl drive. 2pl later Navy had a 16 yd IR TD to tie it at 7. RU was SOD at the N32 and had a 221-187 yd edge but Navy led 14-7 at the half thanks to a 54 yd TD run by Proctor. Navy extended it to 17-7 but RU went 52/6pl for a TD and then 66/7pl with a 3&9, 20 yd TD pass to go up 21-17. Navy got a 41 yd FG to make it 21-20 then had a 34 yd FG blk'd with 4:50 left. RU got to the Navy24 but had a 41 yd FG blk'd with :24 left which would have given them the cover...

Mississippi State had a slight 296-289 yd edge but 3 long drives in the 3Q only produced 3 points and they needed a safety on the final play of the game to get the cover after the line had moved from +5' to +3 at the end of the week. It was South Carolina's first game without QB Stephen Garcia and first road start for Connor Shaw who hit 20-28-155 yards. Tyler Russell started for Miss St and hit 11-29-165. At the half SC was int'd in the EZ with 4:06 left and int'd at the 1 from the MSU41 with :12 left. In the 3Q, MSU went 52/9pl and missed a 40 yd FG. They went 44/7p land missed a 53 yd FG then went 70/11pl and settled for a 22 yd FG with 3 long drives only producing 3 pts, they only led 10-7 and SC went 79/12pl for a 4 yd TD pass with 3:50 left. MSU got to the SC32 but was int'd at the 12 and on 4&13 SC ran out the clock taking a safety on the final play and to win by 2.The win was costly for SC as they lost LY's SEC Frosh of the Year, Marcus Lattimore, for the season (knee).

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Tech Trends - Week 8

October 19, 2011


Thursday, Oct. 20
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

UCF at UAB...UCF has won and covered last two meetings and is 5-2 vs. line last seven against UAB. Blazers only 3-5 vs. spread last 8 at Legion Field but have covered last 4 TY. Meanwhile, USF on 0-4 spread slide after covering 22 of previous 28 on board. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA...First game post-Mike Stoops for UA, d.c. Tim Kish now promoted to HC spot. Cats have beaten UCLA four straight and five of six,, all wins by 7 or more. Neuheisel on 1-8 spread run since late 2010, 3-11 last 14 on board. Bruins also 1-6 vs. points last seven on road. Although Cats only 3-11 vs. spread last 14 vs. FBS foes, and have lost ten in a row SU vs. FBS teams. Arizona, based on series trends.




Friday, Oct. 21
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE...Schiano 5-1 vs. line TY. Cards on 4-13 spread run at Papa John's (no covers last five at home). Rutgers, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at SYRACUSE...Big road series, with visitor having covered last six meetings. WVU has won and covered last five at Carrier Dome, and Mountaineers have covered last 3 as reg.-season visitor. Cuse has only covered 2 of last 8 at home and both covers were by narrowest of margins (OT vs. Wake and Toledo). WVU, based on team and series trends.




Saturday, Oct. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

INDIANA at IOWA...Hoosiers not exactly road warriors, now 1-7 vs. number last 8 away from Bloomington. Kirk Ferentz only 7-13 as DD chalk since 2007, 11-22 last 33 since early 2004, although Iowa 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 at Iowa City. Slight to Iowa, based on team trends.

NC STATE at VIRGINIA...Pack getting points so note 24-12 dog mark for Tom O'Brien since 2007 (1-1-1 TY). Cavs 3-7 vs. spread last 10 as ACC host. NCS, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at PURDUE...Zook now on 9-2 spread run last 11 away from Champaign-Urbana. Purdue just 4-8-1 vs. line last 13 at Ross-Ade. Illinois, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE...FSU has covered 3 of last 4 in series. Jimbo 5-5 vs. spread as host since LY but Noles 5-13 vs. line last 18 as host dating to late 2008. FSU just 10-18 laying 7 or more since 2005. Terps are 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from College Park (1-0 for Edsall, the rest for Ralph). Maryland, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Paul Johnson no wins or covers last two vs. Miami, beaten by wide margins, although Jackets had covered previous four in series. Canes just 9-18 vs. line as host since 2007. GT, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE...Last four "over" in series. Duke 3-1-1 vs. line last five vs. Wake. Duke 6-10-2 vs. spread last 17 at Durham. "Over" and slight to Wake, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARKANSAS at OLE MISS...Hogs have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Petrino on 13-4 spread uptick since early in 2010 campaign, now 20-9 last 29 on board. Houston Nutt 1-5 vs. line last 6 as SEC host. Arkansas, based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA...Note Skip 4-7 as chalk since arriving at USF LY and 13-22 last 35 as chalk extending back to his ECU days. Cincy had covered six straight in series prior to 38-30 loss at Nippert LY. Cincy, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON...Clemson covers last five TY. Dabo now 12-7-1 vs. spread as host since taking over from Tommy Bowden in mid 2008. Heels covering every other week TY but are 16-8 their last 24 as dog. Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BUFFALO...Huskies on 2-0 spread uptick, although NIU just 306 last nine as road chalk. Slight to NIU, based on recent trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH...Spaziani vs. Beamer! BC only 1-5 vs. spread TY. Beamer has won and covered last three meetings handily. Spaziani now on 7-16 spread run last 23 on board. Beamer, based on series trends.

TEXAS A&M at IOWA STATE...Aggies now 4-12 vs. spread last 16 away from Kyle Field. Slight to ISU, based on recent A&M road woes.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Physical battle at Ypsilanti. Ron English now 2-10 since arriving at EMU in '09 vs. spread at Rynearson Stadium, the one-time home of the WFL Detroit Wheels. Broncos on 7-game cover streak, second-best in country behind Stanford. WMU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at TCU...Lobos 1-5 vs. line vs. Frogs since 2005. UNM 10-19 vs. spread against FBS foes since 2009, or post-Rocky Long. Gary Patterson 0-3 vs. line at home TY after 19-6 spread mark previous 25 at Fort Worth. TCU, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE...CMU 1-6 vs. line TY, now 3-12 last 15 on board since early 2010 for Dan Enos. Visiting team, however, has covered last four in series, and note Ball 1-2 vs. spread at Muncie TY, 2-13 last 15 vs. line at home. Slight to CMU, based on series road and Ball home trends.

TULSA at RICE...Tulsa has won last four in series, but covered only two of those. Golden Hurricane 7-1 vs. line last 8 away from home, however. Note Rice has covered last six as host, and Owls 25-10 as home dog since 2000. Slight to Rice, based on recent trends.

ARMY at VANDERBILT...Army no covers first three away TY, as home team has covered in all six West Point games to date. Vandy 2-0 as chalk and 3-0 vs. line at home TY, although only 9-15 as home chalk since 2000. Slight to Vandy, based on recent trends.

at LA TECH at UTAH STATE...LT 4-1-1 vs. line last six meetings. Tech has also covered first three on road TY. Slight to LT, based on recent and series team trends.

TEMPLE at BOWLING GREEN...BG just 10-20 vs. spread at Doyt-Perry Stadium since 2005. Owls 3-0 vs. line away TY and 16-6 vs. spread last 22 as visitor. Temple, based on team trends.

OHIO at AKRON...Solich has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Zips. Akron has cobbled together a 3-game cover streak and is actually 6-3 vs. number last nine on board since late LY. Solich no covers last 3 TY but is 7-3 vs. points last 10 on MAC road. Ohio, based on extended Solich numbers.

MEMPHIS at TULANE...Ugh! Tulane only 4-16 vs. spread last 20 at Superdome, but Memphis just 9-22 last 31 on board overall. Slight to Tulane, based on Memphis woes.

OKLAHOMA STATE at MISSOURI...Teams haven't played since '09, at which point OSU had won and covered two in a row vs. Mizzou. Cowboys now on 15-4 spread tear since 2010 and have covered nine straight on road. OSU, based on recent trends.

OREGON at COLORADO...Buffs no covers last 4 TY and 2-4 on line for Embree. CU now 5-10 last 15 on board since early 2010. but 7-3 last 10 as Boulder dog. Ducks only 4-8 last 12 vs. spread away from home, however. Slight to UO, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at MINNESOTA...Who remembers Nebraska's 84-13 win in 1983 when the Huskers had possession for just over 21 minutes of action? Gophers no covers last 3 TY. Bo Pelini 10-5 last 15 as road chalk. Nebraska, based on recent trends.

UTAH at CAL...Utes 3-8-1 last 12 vs. spread since mid 2010, but Cal only 13-18 last 31 overall vs. number. Slight to Utah, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE...Boise no covers first two on blue carpet TY and now only 3-7 last 10 vs. spread at home (Broncos a better road proposition than at home lately). But Broncos still 29-12-1 last 42 on board. Force scuffling at 1-5 vs. line TY, Falcs also just 6-13 last 19 vs. spread. Boise, based on extended trends.

KANSAS STATE at KANSAS...Note Bill Snyder a 59-7 winner on this field LY. Bill Snyder has won and covered last two vs. KU since returning to KSU, continuing his series dominance from prior regime, now 13-1 SU and vs. line last 14 vs. Jayhawks. Bill Snyder, based on series and team trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Tech has been whipped its last three at Norman, including 45-7 loss LY. Bob Stoops 19-9 vs. line last 28 as host. Home team has covered last five in series. OU, based on team and recent series trends.

OREGON STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (at Qwest Field, Seattle)...Beavers in revenge mode after absorbing 31-14 home loss LY, part of a 2-8 spread tailspin. Beavers were 9-1 vs. line previous 10 in series. Cougs on 10-4 spread uptick since early 2011. WSU, based on recent trends.

EAST CAROLINA at NAVY...Rematch of Navy's 76-35 win LY! Ugh! Ruffin McNeill 4-7 last 11 on board at ECU. Mids only 6-14 as Annapolis chalk since 2005 (1-12 TY). Navy, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Chris Ault 23-7 vs. lien as Reno chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Pack also on 3-0 spread uptick TY. Bulldogs on 24-45-1 spread slide since late 2005. Nevada, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at HOUSTON...Herd 7-4 vs. spread since late LY. Cougs 3-0 vs. Line at home TY and 7-0 vs. line as host since 2009 if throwing out injury-ravaged 2010 numbers. Slight to UH, based on extended trends.

PENN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Shades had dropped six straight vs. line prior to Iowa cover. Shades however on 2-6 spread run as visitor. Pat Fitzgerald just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Evanston, but he's 18-13 as dog since 2007. NU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at TOLEDO...Rockets 5-1 vs. points last six at Glass Bowl vs. MAC foes. Toledo, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at ALABAMA...Nick 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line against UT since taking over Bama in 2007. Saban 15-6 vs. spread last 21 at Tuscaloosa, and 31-14 last 45 on board. Bama, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at NOTRE DAME...Lane Kiffin still only 7-11-1 vs. spread at SC and Trojans 10-20-1 last 31 on board even after Cal win. Irish have covered 3 of last 5 vs. SC at South Bend, and Brian Kelly 7-3 last 10 on board since late LY. ND, based on recent trends.

SMU at SOUTHERN MISS...June Jones 9-4 last 13 as dog at SMU. Slight to SMU, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at STANFORD...Both upticking as well, Stanford on nation's-best 9-game cover streak but Huskies 9-1 last 10 vs. line since late 2010. Tree, however, has won and covered last three meetings. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.

AUBURN at LSU...Les Miles' extended home chalk numbers not so good, especially in SEC play (1-1 TY, now 2-13 last 15). Miles 3-3 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Auburn since arriving at LSU in 2005. Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN STATE...Revenge for Bielema after MSU dealt Badgers their only SU reg.-season loss LY. Dantonio only 7-8 as dog since arriving at MSU in 2007. Bielema on 12-1 spread run since mid 2010. Bielema 3-0 vs. line in revenge role LY. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at UTEP...CSU on 3-11 spread slide last 14 on road. Rams also 1-7 last 8 on board since late LY, and 7-17 last 24 vs. spread since early '09. UTEP, based on CSU woes.

NEW MEXICO STATE at HAWAII...UH has covered nine straight reg.-season games at Aloha Stadium. DeWayne Walker 11-5 vs. spread as visitor since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Slight to UH, based on home trends.




Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

UL-LAFAYETTE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...ULL on 9-game cover streak as visitor! ULL, based on road trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...MTSU has won and covered last two meetings. Blue Raiders unbeaten vs. line in first two away TY. Schnellenberger 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host, and FAU on 3-13 spread slide. MTSU, based on team and recent series trends.

ULM at NORTH TEXAS...ULM has won and covered last two meetings. Warhawks' first-ever road chalk assignment! ULM's first-ever road chalk. ULM, based on series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 8

October 19, 2011

Saturday - Oklahoma State at Missouri (FX, 12:00 p.m.)

Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Oklahoma St. installed as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 68 ½. After losing 12 in a row to Texas, Mike Gundy's squad beat Texas for the second straight year last week. Jeremy Smith ran for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just seven carries. Missouri cruised to an easy 52-17 win over Iowa St. as a 17-point home favorite last Saturday. The Tigers are unbeaten at home, going 2-1 ATS against cupcake foes. They have lost three tight road games, taking the cash in two of them. Gary Pinkel's squad lost 37-30 in overtime at Arizona St., 38-28 at Oklahoma and 24-17 at Kansas St. Those three teams have just two combined losses, with both belonging to ASU. During Gundy's tenure, the Cowboys own an incredible 13-3 spread record in 16 games as road favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 6-7 ATS as home 'dogs under Pinkel. OSU has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Mizzou both straight up and against the spread, including last year's 33-17 win in Stillwater. The 'over' is 4-2 overall for Missouri, 2-1 in its home games. The 'over' is 3-2-1 overall for OSU, 1-1-1 in its three road assignments.


Saturday - North Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most books were listing Clemson as a 10 ½-point favorite as of early Wednesday morning. The total was 58 and UNC was plus-320 on the money line (risk $100 to win $320). Dabo Swinney's team rallied from a 35-17 second-half deficit Saturday at Maryland, rallying to win 56-45 as a 9 ½-point road favorite. Tajh Boyd, who has a 19/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, threw for 270 yards and four TDs and Andre Ellington rushed for 214 yards and a pair of scores. North Carolina is in bounce-back mode following Saturday's 30-24 loss to Miami as a one-point home 'chalk.' The Tar Heels have a 1-1 record both SU and ATS in their two road games, losing 35-28 at Ga. Tech and winning 35-20 at East Carolina. The 'over' is 5-2 overall for Clemson, 4-1 in its home games. The 'under' is 4-3 overall for UNC, 1-1 in its road outings.


Saturday - Auburn at LSU (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday morning, most books had LSU favored in the 22-23 range. The total was 46 ½. Les Miles's team produced another stellar performance last week, winning 38-7 at Tennessee as a 16 ½-point road favorite. Jarrett Lee threw two TD passes to improve his TD-INT ratio to 10/1. AU bounced back from a loss at Arkansas to beat Florida 17-6 as a three-point home underdog. Clint Moseley relieved the ineffective Barrett Trotter at QB and played well enough to earn his first career start in Baton Rouge. As a home favorite under Miles, LSU has an abysmal 14-24-1 spread record. AU has been a double-digit underdog three times during Gene Chizik's tenure, posting a 1-2 SU record and a 2-1 ATS mark. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS as road 'dogs under Chizik. The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive games for Auburn. Also, the 'under' has cashed at a 9-2 clip in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.

Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

Georgia Tech at Miami - Most books are listing Miami as a three-point favorite with a total of 61 ½. Al Golden's squad won a 30-24 decision at UNC last week as a one-point road underdog. The Hurricanes raced out to a 27-3 first-half lead in Chapel Hill thanks to three TD passes from Jacory Harris, who has a 12/3 TD-INT ratio this season. UM has won two of its three home games, going 1-2 versus the number. Ga. Tech suffered its first loss of the year in surprising fashion Saturday in Charlottesville, dropping a 24-21 decision at Virginia as a 7 ½-point road 'chalk.' The Yellow Jackets are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs under fourth-year head coach Paul Johnson. When these ACC adversaries met on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta last year, UM cruised to a 35-10 win as a 2 ½-point road favorite. In South Florida two season ago, the 'Canes won 33-17 as four-point home favorites.

Cincinnati at South Florida - Most books have tabbed USF as a three-point favorite with a total of 55. After a 4-0 start, the Bulls have dropped back-to-back road games at Pitt (44-17) and at UConn (16-10). They couldn't overcome four turnovers, including two interceptions from QB B.J. Daniels, who had previously been playing extremely well, as evidenced by nearly 1,800 yards of total offense, an 8/3 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores. Cincy has won four in a row, going 3-1 ATS, since suffering its only loss at Tennessee. Isaiah Pead rushed for 151 yards and one TD to lead the Bearcats from a 16-7 intermission deficit to a 25-16 home win over Louisville last week. They have won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings against USF, posting a 6-1 spread record.

USC at Notre Dame - Most books are listing Notre Dame as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 57. Brian Kelly's team has won four straight games since starting 0-2. The Irish, who had an open date to get ready for this game, ended Southern Cal's eight-game winning streak in this rivalry by capturing a 20-16 win as a 4 ½-point road underdog last year. Lane Kiffin's team is coming off a 30-9 win at Cal last Thursday thanks to a pair of TD passes from Matt Barkley, who has a 16/4 TD-INT ration for the year. As a road 'dog on under Kiffin, USC has a 2-1 spread record as a road underdog.

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Trending: Conference play for BCS schools


It is not hard to decipher between the better teams year-in and year-out in the BCS conferences, but understanding which teams are consistently successful against the spread can be vital to betting success. Many teams have created such a brand name for themselves that even when they aren’t great, they are still receiving unbalanced lines due to a reputation. There are also habitual losers may be playing above their usual level, but are flying under the radar due to years of lackluster results and play.
So to prepare for the second half of the in-conference rich college football season, we did a study back to 2006 and figured out all the in-conference ATS records for every team in all six BCS conferences. We found some obvious successors and also some eye-opening results as well. These results include conference championship games, but Utah (63% ATS) was not included since this is the school’s first season in a BCS conference, and the Utes are 0-3 ATS in Pac-12 play.


Best ATS Conference Records
1. Ohio State 29-13 (69%)
2. Virginia Tech 31-15 (67%)
3. Oregon State 31-16 (66%)
4. Connecticut 23-14 (62%)
5. Arkansas 26-17 (60%)
6. Texas A&M 25-17 (60%)
Despite the big reputation, OHIO STATE is a ridiculous 29-13 ATS against Big Ten opponents over the past six years. Over that span, the Buckeyes have won at least five out of the traditional eight conferences games each year, including six games in 2006 and 2009. OSU is 16-5 ATS (76%) in its past 21 games in Big Ten play.

VIRGINIA TECH is another big name school that comes in with the second-best ATS conference record at 31-15 (67%). Although the Hokies are just 1-2 in ACC play this year, they were an outstanding 8-1 ATS in 2010 with their only ATS loss being a home victory against Georgia Tech in which they did not cover a double-digit spread.

The Pac-12 (formerly known as the Pac-10), is represented on this list by OREGON STATE. The Beavers are 31-16 ATS (66%), which includes an incredible three-year stretch of 19-8 ATS (70%) from 2007 to 2009. OSU plays in the shadow of mighty Oregon, but with five straight seasons of five ATS wins in conference play, make sure you don’t overlook the Beavers as well.

CONNECTICUT is the real surprise on this list, mounting a 62% ATS success rate, despite a mediocre 18-19 SU record in this span. The Huskies are 11-5 ATS (69%) since 2009, and have benefitted from having virtually no football reputation. However, after last year’s Fiesta Bowl berth, the basketball school may finally see its football team get some more love from Vegas in the future.

ARKANSAS and TEXAS A&M are the final two programs with a 60% ATS record since 2006. The Razorbacks are a program on the rise, posting a whopping 11-2 ATS mark (85%) in their past 13 SEC games. The Aggies, who blew an 18-point halftime lead to Arkansas earlier this month, are also on the upswing, going 9-4 ATS (69%) in their past 13 games.


Worst ATS Conference Records
1. Miami Florida 15-27 (36%)
2. LSU 15-26 (37%)
3. Colorado 16-27 (37%)
4. Michigan 16-26 (38%)
5. Florida State 17-27 (39%)
6. Louisville 14-22 (39%)
MIAMI (FL) continues to disappoint bettors with five straight losing ATS seasons in ACC play. This former elite college program has been pretty mediocre over this time frame, but the general public hasn’t caught on yet. The Canes are 2-1 ATS this year, but are still 6-11 ATS (35%) in the past 17 ACC contests.

LSU is a surprise on list with its 37% ATS mark in SEC play despite a 69% SU record (34-11) in this same time frame. The Tigers have been a stronger bet recently with a profitable 7-5 ATS record in the past two seasons. They went 5-17 ATS (23%) in the SEC from 2006 to 2008.

An example of a bad BCS team that still can’t seem to cover after being given tons of points is COLORADO. The Buffaloes were bad enough in Big 12 play from 2006-2010 (15-24 ATS, 39%), but are 1-3 ATS so far in their first Pac-12 campaign. But considering their 12-32 SU mark (27%) in conference play since 2006, we weren’t too surprised to see CU on this list.

Former powerhouse MICHIGAN was actually 11-4 ATS in 2006 and 2007, but then took an unbelievable nose-dive under the “tutelage” of Rich Rodriguez, going 3-21 ATS (13%) against Big Ten opponents from 2008-2010. Brady Hoke hopes to get Michigan out of this funk, and has been successful thus far, going 2-1 ATS this season.

The final two teams winning less than 40% of their conference games ATS are FLORIDA STATE and LOUISVILLE. FSU no longer dominates the ACC like it once did, but bettors haven’t fully caught on. The Seminoles have posted five straight non-winning ATS seasons in conference play, and have started 2011 with a 1-2 ATS mark. Louisville has four straight losing ATS seasons in Big East play and is 7-15 ATS (32%) when facing conference foes since 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

October 20, 2011


Thanks to Nebraska jumping into the Big 10 fray, we having a scheduling glitch where Wisconsin has to travel to Michigan State for the second consecutive year. It didn’t turn out so well for the Badgers last season as their 34-24 loss became their only blemish of the regular season and eliminated all hopes for a national title run.
Saturday’s game will mark Wisconsin’s first trip away from Madison this season, a place where they have steam rolled all their opponents. Only a late surge by 35-point underdog UNLV has kept Wisconsin from covering every game. They'll look to go 7-0 straight up for the first time since 2004.

Michigan State comes off an emotional home win against rival Michigan, but the troubling part about siding with the Spartans this week is reflecting on their struggles at Ohio State (10-7 win) and getting rocked at Notre Dame 31-13. Outside of the Michigan and Ohio State victories, they only have wins against Central Michigan (45-7) and Florida Atlantic (44-0) to go off of. The same can be said for Wisconsin playing at home where their only real quality win was against a questionable Nebraska (48-17) squad.

The difference maker this week compared to last season's match in East Lansing is Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson, a Heisman contender and the Big 10 leader with 1,557 passing yards, 14 TDs and only one interception. His consistent quarterback play is the main variable with Wisconsin being such a large 7 ½-point road favorite.

We also have the emotional factor of Wisconsin getting up big for their first road test while Michigan State has to recapture their intensity from last waeek. Using past Big 10 situational play, the best bet involving this game might be if Wisconsin wins this week and then goes into Columbus next week sky high, but not respecting the Buckeyes, a team who could put it to them under those circumstances.

The Wynn Resort sports book opened Wisconsin minus-7 Sunday afternoon and were bet up to -8 ½ by Monday morning when most Las Vegas books started posting their lines. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the game -9 and have been bet down with Spartans money to -7 ½ through Thursday.

Even though the Hilton dropped their line with early Michigan State money, executive director Jay Kornegay knows he’ll need the Spartans to come up big.

“The combination of Wisconsin being a very public team, highly-ranked and simply being just a favorite on a Saturday night national TV game has me knowing what side we’ll need. We’ve seen Top-10 teams covering at about a 76% rate and have been getting killed. It gets even worse when those games are featured late on television,” said Kornegay.

The Top-5 teams alone this season -- the teams every casual bettor loves, knows and bets -- are 26-6 (81%) against the spread.

“We don’t even need to hit 50% on these games to show a little profit,” Kornegay explained. “Because of all the parlay action we get, we can be just below 40% and still do well, but 76%…?”

Kornegay has seen a shift of change from the casual unsophisticated bettor now being expectant of these type of streaks with the favorites to continue.

“I was walking into work Sunday morning, the day after the entire strip avoided Black Saturday with Kansas saving the day, and I overhead one guy cussing out Oklahoma because they cost him an eight-teamer (parlay),“ Kornegay said. “I’m thinking ‘you’ve been hitting these things all season,’ that type of disappointment used to be reserved for just winning a single game. Now people are expecting to win eight just because they have already this season.”

As for the Wisconsin game, Kornegay believes in Michigan State more than just what his book will need Saturday night.

“Wisconsin hasn’t been tested on the road and it’s a big number to lay.”

For whatever it's worth, former Las Vegas television sportscaster and current ESPN national radio host Colin Cowherd loves Michigan State with the points. He also went a little overboard in suggesting that because he is so intelligent with college football (he is) and popular in the Las Vegas market (he is) that every wise guy and sports book follows him (they don't). He also suggested that the line movement on the game had something to do with his choice (it didn't). We do love Cowherd in Las Vegas, but just about every unsophisticated bettor in town has been correct in college football this season.

Here’s a look at some of the other line moves during the week in Las Vegas:

Despite Florida State losing three of its last four games, the school is still very well respected in the power ratings. Its last game against Duke (41-16) was the type of performance that many expected out of them all season. The Wynn opened FSU -15 Sunday night and by Thursday afternoon, the game had moved up to -18 for their home game against a Maryland team in disarray.

Vanderbilt opened up at the Hilton as an 8 ½-point favorite against Army and has been bet up to -11. Vanderbilt will be going with sophomore QB Jordan Rodgers, the brother of Aaron Rodgers, who will be making his first career start. He's replacing Larry Smith who has been pulled from all six Vanderbilt games this season.

One top-ranked team that doesn’t have a glowing ATS record this season is Oregon at 3-2-1. The Ducks travel to Colorado and have been bet against at the Hilton from -32 down to -30 ½. Colorado, while never looking worse - almost never, is 2-1 at home ATS. The Buffs will be without RB Rodney Stewart while the status of Oregon’s dynamic duo, LaMichael James (elbow) and Darron Thomas (knee), is still up in the air with mixed reports.

California has been bet against in their 'kinda' home game (AT&T Park in San Francisco) against Utah. The Hilton opened Cal at -3 on Monday morning and it currently sits at -1 ½. The Wynn opened this game as PICK on Sunday night and currently has Cal -2.

Houston opened as a 16-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday evening for its home against Marshall and have been bet all the way to -22. The Hilton opened the game -20 on Monday morning and currently sit at -22 ½.

Alabama has been one of those teams that have been killing the sports books all season. They’re a top ranked team and they’re 6-1 ATS, much to the sports book’s disdain and bettors delight. The Hilton opened the Tide -28 and the line is currently -30 for their home against Tennessee.

Stanford has been a perfect 6-0 ATS and they face a Washington team that registered almost as many ATS wins at 5-1. The Cardinal opened as 20-point favorites and have been bet up to -20 ½.

New Mexico State has been finding some support in its long travel to Hawaii for Saturday night’s late game. Hawaii opened as a 23 ½-point favorite at the Hilton and has been bet against down to -21 ½. The Aggies have covered three straight games while Hawaii is playing only its third home game. While impressive on the road as an underdog at Louisiana Tech three weeks ago, it lost outright as a 6-point road favorite at San Jose State last Friday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Wildcats look to regroup Thursday vs. UCLA


UCLA BRUINS (3-3)
at ARIZONA WILDCATS (1-5)


Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -4, Total: 62

Arizona tries to end a long losing streak with a new head coach on the sidelines when it hosts UCLA on Thursday.

Defensive coordinator Tim Kish takes over for fired head coach Mike Stoops and is tasked with trying to stop a 10-game losing streak to FBS opponents. But the Wildcats love playing the Bruins, beating them in four straight meetings, including a 29-21 win in Los Angeles last season. UCLA has alternated wins and losses all year, beating Washington State 28-25 in its last game on Oct. 8. Neither team has a good defense, but the Wildcats have a superior offense that has posted 99 points in its past three games, all versus Pac-12 opponents. The pick here is ARIZONA to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend shows how badly the Bruins struggle against high-scoring opponents:

UCLA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was UCLA 15.3, OPPONENT 33.4 - (Rating = 3*).

The Wildcats love to throw the football, and why shouldn’t they with QB Nick Foles (376 passing YPG, 2nd in FBS) under center. The senior didn’t face UCLA last year, but he struggled in 2009, throwing for 247 yards and 2 TD, but also tossing three picks to Bruins defenders. Senior WR Juron Criner has thrived in this series, racking up 251 total yards and three scores in two career games against UCLA. However, Criner has only five catches for 45 yards in his past two games this season. The Wildcats have the second-fewest rushing attempts in FBS (151), so it’s not a surprise they also have the second-fewest yards (72 YPG). However, their 2.9 YPC average is just atrocious. The defense also has its holes, especially the pass rush that has just three sacks on the season, the lowest total in the nation. The Wildcats are also fourth-worst in scoring defense (37.5 PPG) and fifth-worst in total defense (488 YPG), but they have faced two of the nation’s top-5 offenses (Oklahoma State and Oregon), and two other great offenses in Stanford and USC.

UCLA’s offense is the opposite of Arizona, as the Bruins look to run with Johnathan Franklin (85 rushing YPG) and Derrick Coleman (55 rush YPG). The school’s 195 rushing YPG ranks 2nd in the Pac-12, but the ground game has been stalled by the Arizona defense in the past six meetings, gaining only 91 rushing yards per game on 3.1 YPC. Bruins QB Kevin Prince actually had a strong performance in the win over Washington State, completing 8-of-13 passes for 173 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. But for his career, Prince has 13 TD, 17 INT and just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The defense has also had its problems, especially against the high-powered offenses of Stanford, Texas and Houston, which combined to score 132 points (44.0 PPG) against the Bruins. Like Arizona, UCLA’s defensive woes start with the D-Line. UCLA ranks 115th in the nation in sacks (0.8 per game) and is tied for 111th in Tackles for Loss (4.2 per game).

[StarDust Bum]

UCLA at Arizona

October 20, 2011

Matchup: UCLA (3-3) at Arizona (1-5)
Venue: Arizona Stadium – Natural Grass
Date: Thursday, Oct. 20
Time/TV: 9:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Arizona -4, o/u 62

It was a nice way to kick a two-game losing streak last Thursday night. I backed San Diego State getting seven points on the road at Air Force and the Aztecs pulled away in the second half for a 14-point outright win over the Falcons. It doesn’t seem to happen often, but it sure is nice not to have to sweat out every win.

Speaking of sweating, Arizona coach Mike Stoops probably had a pretty thick layer of perspiration on him after losing to the previously winless Oregon State Beavers 37-27 on October 8. That loss pushed the Wildcats losing streak against FBS teams to 10 in a row and, if possible, made the Stoops grip on the head coaching job even more tenuous. But even a coach with the last name Stoops is only given so much rope and Arizona Athletic Director Greg Byrne decided he had seen enough. On the Monday after the loss to the Beavers, Stoops was fired.

For now, Tim Kish, who has been with Arizona since 2004 and was most recently the defensive coordinator, will serve as the interim head coach. Byrne is expected to launch a full court press to get Boise State’s Chris Petersen – and the Wildcats certainly won’t be the first program to come knocking on Petersen’s door.

Stoops could blame his firing on several factors and certainly injuries didn’t help. Arizona hasn’t gotten a full season from many of the their best players in 2011 including S Adam Hall, LB Jake Fischer, CB Jonathan McKnight, DT Justin Washington and WR Juron Criner and make no mistake, that type of playmaking ability is very difficult to replace.

However, ultimately Stoops only has himself to blame. The losing streak aside, it’s hard to survive with the 115th ranked defense in the land…especially when you are known as a defensive-minded coach.

Following Stoops dismissal, Arizona had a bye week and now is ready to return to the field this Thursday night when they host UCLA. Rick Neuheisel might want to the Bruins ship sailing in the right direction in a hurry or he could well find himself in the unemployment line with Mike Stoops. The former quarterback for the 1984 UCLA team that went to the Rose Bowl, Neuheisel was brought back to L.A. to get UCLA back to winning ways. It certainly hasn’t been easy so far as the Bruins haven’t finished better than eighth in the Pac-10 in Neuheisel’s first three seasons.

Thus far in 2011 UCLA is sitting at 3-3 but the wins have only come against San Jose State (3-4), Oregon State (1-5), and Washington State (3-3) – hardly impressive. The reality is, beating a 1-5 Arizona team won’t do much to change people’s opinion that UCLA is an average-to-poor team but should they lose, Neuheisel could be a dead man walking.

For the Bruins to win this Thursday, the will have to get a top effort from their defense – something that certainly hasn’t happened much this season. UCLA currently sports the 90th ranked defense in the land and have surrendered 38 or more points in half their games. Now they get to tangle with QB Nick Foles and an Arizona offense ranked 25th in the nation.

The senior QB has pretty much been the entire story for Arizona, throwing for 2,255 yards with 15 TDs and just four INTs while ranking second nationally in passing with an average of 375.8 yards per game. Foles, who is one of 10 finalists for the Johnny Unitas Award for QBs, had to drool this week as he looked at tape of a UCLA defense which has given up an average of 231.8 passing yards per game, tied for 76th in the nation.

UCLA will counter with QB Kevin Prince, who was the starter at the beginning of the season, but then lost the job to QB Richard Brehaut. Starting in four of the Bruins' first six games, Brehaut passed for 907 yards and six touchdowns without an interception before breaking his leg against Washington State.

There is some good news on the medical front for the Wildcats as it appears they will have the services of 2010 Freshman All-American DT Justin Washington (knee) and WR Juron Criner (knee) this week.

Additionally, the Wildcats have to be bolstered by the fact they won four in a row against UCLA, not allowing more than 300 yards in any game.

UCLA is 1-4 against the spread in 2011 while Arizona is only slightly better with a 2-4 ATS mark.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 124-*102-*5 54.87% +5900

Thursday, October 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +16 500

Alabama-Birmingham - Under 45.5 500

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET Arizona -4.5 500

Arizona - Under 62 500

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No. 11 WVU visits Syracuse on Friday


WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (5-1)
at SYRACUSE ORANGE (4-2)


Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: West Virginia -14, Total: 58

No. 11 West Virginia tries for one last successful trip to central New York when it takes on the Orange for the last time in Big East play on Friday night.

West Virginia has four straight wins at Syracuse, which will leave the Big East after this year, outscoring the Orange 138 to 57 in these four Carrier Dome visits. The Mountaineers’ only loss this season is to No. 1 LSU, and they have averaged 44.8 PPG in five wins. WVU star QB Geno Smith threw 3 INT in last year’s 19-14 home loss to the Orange, but he has 360 pass YPG, 16 TD and 3 INT this year, and should thrive against Syracuse’s 112th-ranked pass defense (293 YPG). Although five of Syracuse’s six games have been decided by a TD or less, including three overtime contests, the pick here is WEST VIRGINIA to post another lopsided road win in this series.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Mountaineers:

WEST VIRGINIA is 13-4 ATS (76.5%, +8.6 Units) in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 29.9, OPPONENT 17.4.

The Under has occurred in 12 of the past 16 meetings between these squads, and this three-star FoxSheets trend thinks the UNDER will occur again on Friday night.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (SYRACUSE) - after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. (49-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Smith hasn’t been the only WVU player with gaudy numbers, as he has three receivers each averaging more than 75 yards per game. Junior Stedman Bailey leads the Big East with 106 receiving YPG, including four straight 110-yard efforts. Bailey also has four scores in these past four contests. Junior Tavon Austin is the team’s reception leader with 7.0 per game, and he caught five passes for 32 yards and a TD in last year’s meeting with Syracuse. Sophomore Ivan McCartney has caught at least four passes in all six games, and posted a career-best 131 yards in last week’s 43-16 pounding of Connecticut. The Mountaineers rushing game ranks 91st in the nation in yardage (123 YPG), but that number is skewed by the 360 yards they had against Bowling Green. They have failed to reach 105 yards in any game, averaging 75.6 rushing YPG in the other five contests. On the other side of the ball, the pass defense has been stellar (181 YPG, 17th in nation) despite a paltry 1.3 sacks per game (97th in FBS). After not forcing a turnover in the first two games of the season, WVU has nine takeaways in the past four weeks.

The Orange have been pretty balanced on offense in the past three weeks, averaging 189 passing YPG and 150 YPG on the ground. Unfortunately, these combined numbers aren’t very good, as Syracuse ranks 96th among FBS schools in yardage (334 YPG). QB Ryan Nassib threw three picks in a loss to Rutgers, but rebounded nicely with 201 total yards and 3 TD in a narrow three-point win at 9.5-point underdog Tulane. Although his accuracy numbers in two meetings with WVU are poor (12-of-31, 38.7%), Nassib has thrown 3 TD with 0 INT in the pair of matchups. RB Antwon Bailey is on a nice three-game run of 100-yard efforts, and he rumbled for 94 yards on 19 carries in last year’s upset in Morgantown. Despite its weak pass defense, the Orange have held their own in stopping the run. They rank 23rd in the nation with 104 rushing YPG allowed and held their last Big East opponent (Rutgers) to a comical five yards on 38 carries!

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5-1 Washington visits 6-0 Stanford Saturday

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (5-1)
at STANFORD CARDINAL (6-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -20, Total: 62.5

No. 22 Washington brings its surprising 5-1 record into Palo Alto to take on No. 7 Stanford on Saturday night.

These schools have been two of the best bets in college football, with Washington tallying five straight ATS wins and Stanford going 6-0, both SU and ATS. The Cardinal are also 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six meetings with UW. Huskies QB Keith Price (21 TD, 4 INT, 5th in FBS passing efficiency) has thrown at least 3 TD in all six games this year, and teammate RB Chris Polk is averaging 145 total YPG. Cardinal QB Andrew Luck (18 TD, 3 INT, 3rd in FBS passing efficiency) has had elite protection, as Stanford has allowed an FBS-low two sacks. Both teams have similar offenses, but the Cardinal have the superior defense unit. They have not allowed 20 points in a game this year, while UW has given up 23+ points in five of six contests. Stanford is 9-0 ATS following a win by 28+ points in the past two years, and Luck will further boost his Heisman stock on national TV as STANFORD rolls to a spread-covering victory.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support taking the Cardinal:

STANFORD is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 43.5, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 5*).

Play Against - A road team (WASHINGTON) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (40-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*).

The Huskies are ranked for the first time since September of 2009, and Price is the main reason why they are playing so well. He has been remarkable in conference play, completing 75% of his passes for 775 yards, 10 TD and 1 INT in three Pac-12 contests. Polk is averaging 5.4 YPC and has rushed for 100 yards in five of his six games. He only gained 60 yards on the ground against Cal, but added 85 more on the receiving end. Polk has not enjoyed playing in this series, as he has a total of 92 rushing yards on 2.9 YPC in two games against Stanford. Considering the Cardinal are allowing a paltry 59.5 rushing YPG (2nd-best in nation), it could be another long afternoon for the junior.

Defensively, Washington is allowing over 400 yards per game and has the fifth-worst passing defense in the country (304 YPG). The Huskies forced five turnovers at Utah and four against Eastern Washington, but only have three takeaways in the other four games.

Although this will be Stanford’s first ranked opponent in 2011, Luck has always risen to the occasion, leading his team to a 5-1 record against ranked teams in his career. Luck started slow in last week’s game, as his team only led Washington State 10-7 at halftime. But the junior finished with 336 yards as his team rolled to a 44-14 win with a monster second half. Most of the media’s focus is on Luck and the passing game, but Washington needs to be just as concerned about the Cardinal rushing attack. In the past three meetings (all won by Stanford), the Huskies have allowed 843 rushing yards (281 YPG). Stepfan Taylor, who gained104 yards and scored twice in last year’s 41-0 blowout in Seattle, has rushed for 423 yards and scored four times in the past four games.

The Cardinal only have five takeaways in their past five games, which makes their defensive ranks all the more impressive. They are fourth in sacks (3.8 per game), fifth in scoring defense (11.2 PPG) and 11th in Tackles for Loss (8.0 per game).

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Notre Dame hosts USC in a rare night game


USC TROJANS (5-1)
at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-2)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -8.5, Total: 58

Red-hot Notre Dame plays its first game under the lights in 21 years when it hosts rival USC on Saturday.

The Fighting Irish have won four straight contests, and will likely win a fifth straight against an injury-riddled Trojans squad. USC will be without top RB Marc Tyler (shoulder), and two other key offensive players could also miss this game -- WR Marqise Lee (shoulder) and RB Dillon Baxter (personal). The Irish are in good health after a bye week, and QB Tommy Rees has 515 passing yards, 7 TD and 0 INT in his past two games. Notre Dame snapped an eight-game series skid to USC last year as Michael Floyd caught 11 passes for 86 yards and a score. The Irish fans will be extra charged-up for their first night game since 1990 and will win comfortably. The pick here is NOTRE DAME to win and cover.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Irish:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

Trojans QB Matt Barkley missed last year’s 20-16 loss to Notre Dame, but he was a big reason his team left South Bend with a 34-27 win 2009, as he threw for 380 yards and two touchdowns. This season, his number one target has been WR Robert Woods. The sophomore already has 60 catches this season, which ties him for second among all FBS players. His 783 receiving yards rank fifth in the land. Junior RB Curtis McNeal will likely handle most of the rushing workload. He has gained 160 yards with 2 TD on just 24 carries (6.7 YPC) in the past two weeks.

Although USC held Cal to nine points last week, this defense is still a work in progress, especially in the secondary. The Trojans have surrendered 272 passing YPG this year, which ranks 105th out of 120 FBS teams. It would help if they pressured the QB more often, as the team has only 5.0 Tackles For Loss per game (84th in nation).

Notre Dame has had only one close game during its four-game run, a 15-12 victory in Pittsburgh. The other three wins (over Michigan State, Purdue and Air Force) have been by a combined score of 128 to 56. Rees had his moments in last year’s win over USC, throwing for 149 yards and two scores, but he also tossed three picks. Floyd already has three games with at least a dozen catches and 135 receiving yards this season. RB Cierre Wood has also had a tremendous junior campaign, averaging 108 rushing YPG, 5.8 YPC and scoring six times in six games. The key for this offense is not to turn the football over, and with two straight turnover-free games, the Irish are showing what they are capable of, with a great balance of 553 rushing yards and 558 passing yards in these two contests.

Despite the offensive resurgence, the defense was really dominated last week by Air Force, not only with the 363 rushing yards, but also allowing the vertically-challenged Falcons to throw for 202 yards. The Irish allowed 338 yards at Michigan and 329 yards to Michigan State, and it won’t be easy containing Barkley and Woods. Notre Dame has done a nice job getting after the quarterback, tallying 2.5 sacks per game (27th in FBS).

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Wisconsin tries to stay unbeaten at No. 15 MSU


WISCONSIN BADGERS (6-0)
at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (5-1)


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -8.5, Total: 48

Two of the nation’s top-15 teams do battle Saturday night when No. 15 Michigan State hosts unbeaten Wisconsin, ranked fourth in the nation.

This is a classic battle of a high-powered offense against a relentless defense. The Badgers lead the nation in points and are beating opponents by a 50-10 average score. This includes a 107-24 scoring margin over their two Big Ten foes (Nebraska and Indiana). MSU has beaten Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks, and leads the nation in pass defense (119 YPG) and ranks third against the run (67 YPG). Wisconsin just has too many weapons, as the Badgers can beat you both on the ground (258 YPG), and in the air with QB Russell Wilson, who leads the nation in passing efficiency (14 TD, 1 INT). The Badgers are eager to avenge last year’s loss in East Lansing, and have won nine straight conference games since that defeat. Expect WISCONSIN to run that streak to double-digits with a double-digit win on Saturday night.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support the Badgers:

WISCONSIN is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WISCONSIN 50.0, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 5*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

Wisconsin has dropped three straight games at Spartan Stadium, but the offense runs much smoother under Wilson who is completing 74% of his passes this year. For his career, Wilson has an incredible ratio of 90 TD and only 27 INT in 1,308 pass attempts (1 INT per 48.4 throws). RB Montee Ball has 17 total TD, which is tied for the nation’s lead. He has 293 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in two Big Ten games this year, and will be a much larger factor in this meeting after only getting two carries last year against the Spartans. Sophomore RB James White ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries in the loss to MSU last year, and is a tremendous No. 2 back with 6.0 yards per carry this season.

Although the Badgers haven’t played a difficult schedule, their defense has also been stellar, ranking third in the nation in scoring (9.7 PPG), fourth in pass defense (145 YPG) and seventh in total yardage (268 YPG). Chris Borland is playing as well as any linebacker in the conference with 58 tackles (34 solo) and 8.5 TFL, which both rank among the top four in the Big Ten.

Michigan State also has a smart QB in senior Kirk Cousins, who was 20-of-29 for 269 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT in last year’s win over the Badgers. He has only eight TD passes this year, but he has completed 66 percent of his throws. His favorite target has been B.J. Cunningham who ranks second in the Big Ten in catches (7.0 per game) and receiving yards (104 YPG). Cunningham has been inconsistent though, with three games of 9+ catches and three games of five or fewer grabs. The key to this offense will be junior RB Edwin Baker, who is coming off a season-high 167 rushing yards against Michigan. He also ran for 87 yards on 18 carries in last year’s win over Wisconsin.

The Spartans have gotten consistently great production out of their defensive line. With seven sacks in last week’s win over Michigan, the team ranks eighth in the nation in sacks (3.5 per game) and 18th in Tackles for Loss (7.7 per game).