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**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 09:32 AM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

My, we are stubborn.

When it comes to things we believe about the NFL, we stick to the script. After all, we wrote the script, and we know our stuff. We’ll tweak it if we have to.
What we really should do is burn it.

Of course I’m talking about the Eagles, the same Eagles who added six Pro Bowlers in the offseason, became Super Bowl co-favorites, and laid points no matter how badly they performed -- or whom they were playing.

Hand the defense to a buddy who hadn’t coached defense since the 1980s? No problem.

Handle the ball like a hot potato? No worries. Treat run defense as an afterthought? It’s all good.

With nearly one-third of the season done, however, reality is overtaking the hype.

The mistake-prone Eagles, who drew the cash again as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, might not be favored Sunday for the first time. Caesars Palace opened their Week 6 game at Washington as a Pick-em. Other books list the ‘Skins as 1-point favorites.

Philly is 0-4 straight up and against the spread since beating hapless St. Louis.

“This is a team whose line value has been inflated because of that perception [that it is super-talented],” Todd Fuhrman, Caesar’s race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “What we’ve seen the last few weeks doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Turnovers continue to mount, and they just can’t stop the run.”

So why not make them a field-goal dog against a 3-1 home team coming off a bye?

“They’re still a public team, so you can’t adjust the line too much,” Fuhrman said. “And this is essentially their last stand.”

The Eagles remind Fuhrman of last year’s Miami Heat, who were way overvalued at the start of the season.

“The difference is the Heat had 82 games to get things right,” Fuhrman said. “In the NFL a slow start seals your fate.”

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky said Philly remains a “difficult assessment.”

“For all their faults, the Eagles are +38 in first downs and +468 in yards over their opponents, among the best in each category,” he told ***********. “So the bettors can see their potential, and will likely continue to look to them to find it. All the while there were serious mental mistakes Sunday that had nothing to do with bad bounces, and indicate that their poor start may be getting in their heads. They may not have the maturity to stay the course.”

The Las Vegas-based Sports Club recommended the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites. Founder Pete Korner had Washington as a 1-point favorite, but his fellow oddsmakers all had Philly.

“People do bet ‘em – that’s why we recommended them as the favorite,” Korner told ***********. “Something is not clicking there, but the perception is still that they’re very good and they’re going to break out in a big way. They have a lot of talent and they still attract money.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14.5, 48), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

The Rams could get even more points by kickoff. They’re so feeble offensively (11.5 ppg), thanks to injuries and “boy genius” coordinator Josh McDaniels.

“The focus has gotta always be on playing our best in November and December,” McDaniels curiously told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s still October last time we checked.

Beat writer Jim Thomas noted the Rams sometimes struggle “just to get lined up right and get the ball snapped.”

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Washington (-1, 48)

The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in division games since the start of last season. Washington made less splashier offseason additions – G Chris Chester, DLs Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, DBs Josh Wilson and O.J. Atogwe -- but they’re paying off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Dallas at New England (-7, 54)

These teams haven’t played since 2007, when they combined for 75 points in a 48-27 Pats win.

New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular-season games, posting an 11-2 O/U mark. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a 15-2 O/U tear dating to last year.

You won’t see a worse matchup of secondaries all season.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7, 39.5), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

All four of these teams put up at least 20 points Sunday.

Curtis Painter has great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and rookie A.J. Green is showing why he was the first wideout drafted.

Under coach Mike Tomlin, the over is 16-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s division games.

**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 09:32 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Minnesota at Chicago
The Bears look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 201-202: St. Louis at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.363; Green Bay 143.741
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 23 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-14 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.672; Pittsburgh 133.399
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+13); Over

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.402; Washington 130.205
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia; Under

Game 207-208: San Francisco at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 134.612; Detroit 141.248
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Over

Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.082; Atlanta 128.129
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+4); Over

Game 211-212: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.907; Cincinnati 133.348
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 213-214: Buffalo at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 133.805; NY Giants 131.575
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 54
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: Houston at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.513; Baltimore 144.192
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Cleveland at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.056; Oakland 132.704
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Oakland by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over

Game 219-220: Dallas at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.730; New England 143.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

Game 221-222: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.125; Tampa Bay 131.865
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4); Over

Game 223-224: Minnesota at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.744; Chicago 134.781
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 17

Game 225-226: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.319; NY Jets 135.780
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 09:33 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

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Sunday, October 16

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ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-116 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 0-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (1 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 4) at CHICAGO (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 17

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MIAMI (0 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/17/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 09:34 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, 10/16/2011

ST LOUIS at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 2-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play last game
GREEN BAY: 9-1 ATS off 3 straight wins

JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 5-14 ATS off ATS loss
PITTSBURGH: 19-8 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over in conference road games
WASHINGTON: 6-12 ATS at home vs. Philadelphia

SAN FRANCISCO at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-28 ATS Away off win by 14+
DETROIT: n/a

CAROLINA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game
ATLANTA: 14-29 ATS in 2nd of BB home games

INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 7-0 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
CINCINNATI: 0-9 ATS as home favorite

BUFFALO at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 1-4 ATS vs. NY Giants
NY GIANTS: 0-7 ATS if allowing 400+ yds last game

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE, 4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 15-31 ATS Away off home game
BALTIMORE: 18-7 ATS at home after scoring 30+

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 19-8 Over Away off BB Home games
OAKLAND: 13-27 ATS off SU dog win

DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 12-1 Over after 1st month of season
NEW ENGLAND: 18-4 Over in all games

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Under off 2 straight road wins
TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 8-2 Over in wks 5 through 9
CHICAGO: n/a

Monday, 10/17/2011

MIAMI at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MIAMI: 11-24 ATS vs. Jets
NY JETS: 14-5 Over vs. conference

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 09:34 AM

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 16

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. GREEN BAY
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CINCINNATI
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DETROIT
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY GIANTS
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New England's last 16 games

8:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota

Monday, October 17

8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 6-16-3 ATS in their last 25 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
NY Jets are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Miami

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**Udog** · 10-12-2011, 12:17 PM

NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again

Oddsmakers set the highest NFL totals we’ve ever seen last week, and guess what? Nine of 13 games still went over.

So now they’ve shattered another record. Based on *********** data, this week’s average total is a whopping 46.4.

You can’t blame oddsmakers. They’ve got to do something to slow down the over train that’s cashing at a 63.2 percent clip (48-28-1).

Week 6’s highest total, Cowboys-Pats, opened at 54 and is already 55 at many books. The teams have combined to post 33-8 O/U mark (80.5 percent) since the start of last season.

“It’s getting to the point where you wonder how high you can make it,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “Even when we set numbers in the 50s, they’re going over.”

One play in the Jets-Patriots game said it all.

Darrelle Revis and Patriots wideout Deion Branch got their feet tangled late in the first half. Officials flagged Revis for illegal contact. It was a highly questionable call, and it went against the best corner in the game.

In the NFL, offense gets the benefit of the doubt.

Revis wasn’t alone. Refs flagged three other Jets’ defensive backs for illegal contact or pass interference Sunday.

“All those flags just keep extending drives,” Fuhrman said. “How is a defense supposed to stop a high-profile passing attack?”

Especially when stars like Brian Urlacher are flagged for phantom helmet-to-helmet hits (see: Monday night at Detroit). Trying to protect players, the league has boosted scoring even more.

Fuhrman acknowledges that the totals haven’t risen quickly enough.

“There’s just a perception out there that there’s going to be a regression to the mean, that defenses are going to catch up,” he said.

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky summed up the linesmakers’ quandary.

“The oddsmakers continue to set higher totals each week, but still not enough,” he said. “They want to make sure their lines are simply not out of the ballpark, and that has not been the case: Overs cashed at a 9-2 rate going into the Sunday night game, but of those 11, six finished within a TD of the projection. So they are not too far off, but will have to continue to move them higher.

“Right now we see such hesitancy from the defenses that the notion that they will adjust and get the numbers more back towards normal may be an erroneous hypothesis,” Malinsky added. “Guys who spent their careers playing a certain way just are not adjusting well to the reduced limits on contact.”

Emboldened receivers are averaging 140 yards after contact per game, 25 more than in 2010, according to advancednflstats.com. That’s an increase of 22 percent.

Teamrankings.com has a database that goes back to 1985. The site said Week 5’s average total of 45.3 was the highest ever -- just above the 45.1 average for Week 9 of 2009, and the 45.0 average for Week 3 of 1985.

Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner said bettors “are playing the way they should be, and they’re winning,” noting the overs have helped many bettors cash parlays and teasers.

But he also added: “We just can’t go from the numbers we’ve had and raise ‘em 10 points. That’s not going to create two-way action. We’re trying to find an area that’s in the middle.”

Even after the Sunday night and Monday night games stayed under, the over is 8-3-1 in prime-time games.

No team epitomizes the over trend more than Buffalo. All five Bills’ games have gone over, and by an average of 11.2 points.

Perhaps that’s why the Bills-Giants game, which opened at 49.5, is already at 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.

All five of Buffalo’s second halves also have gone over.

Maybe in December, brutal cold and swirling winds will do what NFL defenses have not been able to do so far.

HALFTIME BETTING

Other strong second-half trends are emerging.

Jacksonville has not covered any second half this season. Sunday, the Jaguars lost the second half 17-7 as a 3-point home dog to Cincy. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in the second half.

The Lions - who still have not lost a game ATS since Thanksgiving 2010, including preseason - are 5-0 ATS in second-half action. They outscored the Bears 17-3 as 6-point favorites.

Minnesota snapped its 0-4 ATS skid in second-half action on Sunday. The Vikes, getting three points, lost the second half 7-6 to Arizona after building a 28-3 lead.

**Udog** · 10-13-2011, 07:53 AM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NFL Live Odds

Carolina at Atlanta -5.5 ---> -3.5

On one hand you have the Carolina Panthers, who are 1-4 straight up, but 4-1 against the spread. On the other, you have the Atlanta Falcons, who are 2-3 outright, but just 1-4 against the spread.

“Atlanta has underachieved all year and bettors appear to believe there's no reason to think they bounce back from last week's meltdown,” Fuhrman says. “Julio Jones is expected to miss and you can't fault bettors for wanting to ride Cam "The Cover" Newton until his magic stops.”

Philadelphia at Washington -1 ---> +1.5

Despite all the controversy swirling around in Philly, it doesn’t look like Eagles supporters are ready to jump ship. This is Philadelphia’s last game before its bye, so it’ll be a long two weeks unless Andy Reid’s bunch comes away with a win.

“Shanahan has been very good off bye weeks during his career but he faces an Eagles team Sunday with their back's against the wall,” says Fuhrman. “The public thinks Philadelphia will rise up and salvage their season but do you really want to pay to find out? The way they're betting the game makes me believe the public thinks the Eagles aren't dead yet.”

Houston at Baltimore -6 ---> -9

Baltimore will be looking to make a statement off its bye. The Ravens went into their bye week after hammering the Jets and catch a Houston club that will be without two of its top two players – wideout Andre Johnson and linebacker Mario Williams.

“Houston struggled mightily last week against Oakland and that's the last thing the public remembers,” Fuhrman says. “Andre Johnson will be out for a second straight game and his absence was apparent last week when Schaub struggled to find his playmakers late. As this line continues to spiral I fully expect there to be an interest from bettors in grabbing the underdog.”

Miami at New York Jets O/U 42 ---> 43.5

This one’s a little tricky to figure out. Each of New York’s last three games have played over the total while Miami has played under the number in three straight. The Jets return home after dropping all three of those games on the road – at Oakland, Baltimore and New England.

Totals are up across the board and this was one of the lower numbers at the open.

NCF Live Odds

Miami (Ohio) at Kent St. +6 ---> +3.5

Neither of these teams have done much of anything this season with just a single win and one cover apiece. The RedHawks are coming off a 35-28 win over Navy as a 2-point underdog, while the Golden Flashes dropped a 40-10 decision as a 14.5-point underdog against Northern Illinois.

Louisville at Cincinnati -14 ---> -16.5

The Bearcats head into this one at 4-1 against the spread following their bye. Before their off week, they blanked Miami (Ohio) 27-0. Meanwhile, Louisville has dropped three of its last four straight up. The favorite has covered in 11 of the last 14 meetings between the two clubs.

“Louisville has struggled offensively all season long and matched up with a high octane offense in Cincinnati could spell trouble,” says Fuhrman. “Zach Collaros is the most underrated QB in the conference but this will be one of the first real defensive tests he's faced this year. I expect there to be buyback in the market every time the line ticks past 17.”

Michigan at Michigan State -3 ---> -1.5

This one’s pretty obvious.

“Denard, Denard, Denard,” Fuhrman says about Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. “The public has no interest fading this Heisman hopeful who has single-handedly been the catalyst to Michigan's fast start. However, this will be the stiffest test defensively for their offense and I think MSU can dominate the trenches. The public will back Michigan here but the question remains: When will the money from the professionals come in on Sparty if the price keeps dropping?”

**Udog** · 10-13-2011, 07:53 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0)-- Not only is St Louis off to horrific 0-4 start, its fifth year in row starting 0-2, their top seven CBs are all out hurt, so good luck stopping prolific Packer passing attack that saw 12 different guys catch passes in comeback win at Atlanta Sunday nite. Green Bay scored 42-49 points in its two home games so far- they're 4-1 vs spread and converted 18 of last 28 third down plays. Rams covered last four post-bye games but have been useless so far this season, with three losses by 12+ points- they've scored one TD in each game this year. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-8-1 against spread. In their last four games, Pack outscored opponents 73-23 in second half.

Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pittsburgh is banged up, have turnover ratio of minus-11 (only two takeaways in five games), but they're still 3-2, with wins by 25-21 points in only home games- they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite. Jacksonville lost its last four games, scoring four TD's on 48 drives, with 20 3/outs- they lost road games 32-3 at the Jets and 16-10 on rainy day in Charlotte. Jags are actually 4-1 in last five series, 5-1 in last six visits here, with last visit a 31-27 win in '97 playoffs. Steelers are 6-13 vs spread last 19 games as double digit favorite. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6, 2-4 on foreign soil. Jaguars are 0-5 against the pointspread this season.

Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1)-- Road team won seven of last nine series games; Iggles won four of last five visits here, including 59-28 Monday night thrashing LY when Vick ran amuck, but that seems like long time ago now. Philly is 3-7 in last ten pre-bye games; they're 3-8 as pre-bye favorite. Washington are off to good start thanks to solid defense; they've allowed only two TDs on foes' last eight red zone drives. Redskins lost their last three post-bye games by average score of 35-18. Struggling Philly allowed 29.8 ppg in losing last four ballgames (15 TDs on 45 drives) but part of that is failures by offense (11 turnovers last three games, minus-9 TO ratio). Over is 4-1 in Eagle games this season.

49ers (4-1) @ Lions (5-0)-- Two Cinderellas bang heads here, with Lions off of first Monday night home game in 10 years. 49ers are +10 in turnovers, Lions +7, but Detroit's win Monday when they were -1 in turnovers is good sign for them. SF allowed only two TDs on 34 drives in last three games. Detroit won its two home games, 48-3/24-13, with nine TDs on 24 drives. NFC North clubs are 9-5 vs spread in non-division games, 4-2 as home favorites. NFC West dogs are 5-8-1. 49ers are 12-1 in last 13 series tilts, winning last seven, all by 6+ points. Niners are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games, with five of six losses by 8+ points. Both teams are playing with supreme confidence-- interesting game.

Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2)—Huge red flag for Giants are 177-156-145 rushing yards they’ve allowed in last three games. In their three wins, Giants converted 16 of 40 (40%) on 3rd down- in their two losses, 2-22 (9.1%). Buffalo has won turnover battle in every game, and is +11 for season; none of their five games have been closer than 11 points at half, with trailing team winning three of last four. Giants are 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games vs AFC teams, 7-3 in last ten games as single digit favorite. Buffalo lost its last 11 pre-bye games (3-8 vs spread); Giants won six of last eight pre-spread tilts, but are just 1-4 in last five games as pre-bye favorite. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo games this season, 3-1-1 in Giant games.

Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3)— Disappointing Falcons are 1-4 vs spread, with only wins by 35-31/30-28 scores- they’re 15-6-1 vs spread in last 22 games as home favorite, 16-4-1 in last 22 as single digit faves. Atlanta won four of last five series games, with all wins by 8+ points; Carolina lost last three visits here, by 17-8-21 points, as Falcons won both series meetings 31-10 LY. Carolina covered three of its four losses, with no setbacks by more than 7 points; Panthers lost road games 28-21/34-29- this is their first game on artificial turf. Falcons were outscored 40-6 in second half the last two weeks; they’ve lost field position struggle four games in row. Average total in Panthers’ last four visits here, 52.3.

Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2)—Since 2006, Bengals are 7-19-1 vs spread as single digit favorite. Cincy scored 22+ points in four of five games, winning field position battle in all five. Colts’ last four losses are all by 8 or less points- they led at half in last three games, but were outscored 44-14 in second half. Painter has played better than expected in his two starts, averaging 7.5/10.3 yards/pass attempt. Indy allowed 192-194 rushing yards last two games. Bengals are 3-6 SU in last nine pre-bye games; since 1990, they’re 3-5 as pre-bye favorite. Indy is 12-3 in last 15 series games, winning last seven, all by 6+ points- they’ve won eight of last visits here, a short 114-mile drive southeast on I-74.

Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1)—Since 2000, Baltimore is an amazing 33-9 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite, which they are here. Houston allowed 7-13-10 points in its wins, 40-25 in losses- they’ve got tough task here vs Raven squad that scored 35-37-34 points in its three wins, although defense did score three TDs in last game, while QB Flacco floundered vs Jet defense. Baltimore won eight of last nine post-bye games, covering last six as a post-bye favorite; they’re 4-0 in this series, with three wins by 4 or less points, or in OT; they won 34-28 in OT at Reliant in LY’s meeting. Texans lost 16-15 in only visit here six years ago. All four Raven games went over total; four of five Houston games stayed under. Texans have only four TDs on last 14 red zone drives.

Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2)— Oakland is favored for first time this season; Browns are underdog for first time this year- they’ve scored 17 or less points in three of four games this year- their two losses are by 10-18 points. Over last decade, favorite is 9-1 vs spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games, with Browns 1-5 as post-bye underdog. Over last 6+ years, Browns are 14-11-1 as non-divisional road dogs; over last 4+ years, they’re 14-9 as single digit underdogs. Over last 8+ years, Oakland is 23-42-1 vs spread at home, 6-17 when favored. Raiders are 3-10-1 vs spread in game following their last 14 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 1-3. Three of four Cleveland games went over the total.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1)—All four Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points, with Pokes splitting pair of 27-24 decisions on road. Cowboys are 5-3 in last eight games as road underdog. Patriots scored 30+ points in every game so far (20 TDs on 53 drives, no TDs on defense/special teams)- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as home favorite, 16-9-1 in game following their last 26 wins. Cowboys are 15-4 in last 19 post-bye games, winning five of last six, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. New England is 8-3 as pre-bye favorite, winning 35-7/41-14 in game before last two byes. Patriots have four TD’s on five game-opening drives, Dallas has two TDs and FG on four opening drives. Overall, over is 4-1 in Patriot games, 3-1 with Dallas.

Saints (4-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2)—Third week in row on road for Saints, who are 6-3 in last nine visits here, winning 38-7/31-6 in last two. Road team won five of last seven series games. NO scored 30+ points in four of five games this year, and won the fifth game by 13 points, only time this year they lost field position. Bucs are 4-14-1 vs spread in last 19 home games; what do you make of a team that lost 48-3 last week? They’re 1-10 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdog. Home dogs are 5-3 vs spread in divisional games this season. Saints converted 44 of 75 (58.7%) on 3rd down this year, big reason why they score lot of points- they either scored TD or tried FG on 33 of 52 drives this season, Bucs only 18 of 51. New Orleans is 4-1 and they haven’t won turnover battle in any game yet this year.

Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)— Minnesota had double digit lead at half in four of five games, but only finished one of the four games out- they were outscored 87-22 in second half of games. Bears lost three of last four games, and needed TDs on special teams and defense to get the one win, 34-29. Chicago won last three series games, taking 27-13/40-14 decisions LY. Vikings lost nine of last ten visits to Windy City, losing last three by 7-6-14 points. Chicago is 3-9-1 vs spread in its last 13 games as home favorite; home side covered four of their five games this year. Minnesota big win last week needs context; the three first quarter TDs they scored came on drives of 18-24-25 yards, with two of three drives set up by takeaways. Three of Bears’ last four games stayed under total.

Dolphins (0-4) @ Jets (2-3)— Former Panther QB Moore gets first Miami start with Henne out. Gang Green is off 0-3 road trip; offense has bullseye on chest via fans after WRs complained about playcalling, then Mason was traded away. Visitor won six of last seven series games; Miami won four of last five in series, including last three here by 7-5-4 points. Dolphins are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road games, 19-9-2 in last 30 games as road underdog. Jets are 9-16-1 in last 26 games as a home favorite. Miami is 4-9 in last 13 post-bye games, 4-3 in last seven as post-bye underdog. Average total in last four series games is 45.8. Dolphins’ losses this year are by 14-1-10 points; they have only three TDs on 30 drives in last three games.

**Udog** · 10-13-2011, 10:11 PM

NFL

Week 6

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 6
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Six weeks ago, the Eagles were being heralded as Super Bowl contenders. Now, not so much. No one roars quite like the Lions at this point – except perhaps the unbeaten and reigning Super Bowl champion Packers. On to Week 6 of the NFL poolies’ cheat sheet:

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3)

Why Bills cover: Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. the Lions of the AFC – except for that one loss, of course – and they just dumped Eagles. New York, meanwhile, just lost at home as a double-digit favorite to meager Seahawks. Buffalo 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as road underdog; Giants 4-10 ATS last 14 as home chalk.

Why Giants cover: Eager to make amends to home fans who witnessed embarrassing loss to Seattle. New York rises up at betting window in October, with 22-8-1 ATS mark last 30 in month of Halloween.

Total (50): Loads of over trends for both teams, including 6-0 overall for Bills, 5-1 on highway for Buffalo and 5-1-1 for the G-Men at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)

Why Jaguars cover: They’ve had the best of this AFC rivalry, going 10-4 ATS last 14 overall, and underdog has cashed last seven clashes. Pittsburgh in 0-4 ATS rut coming off SU win.

Why Steelers cover: Jags possess one of most pathetic offenses in league, averaging paltry 11.8 ppg. Jacksonville rookie QB Blaine Gabbert vs. Pittsburgh veteran and proven star Ben Roethlisberger is no contest. Steelers have beaten oddsmakers last five at home.

Total (40.5): Under 4-1 this year for Jags, but Pittsburgh on over stretches of 7-2 overall, 7-0 after spread-cover and 7-1 after SU win.

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-14.5)

Why Rams cover: Not much to state in their favor, but Green Bay 6-16-2 ATS in last 24 starts as chalk of more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: St. Louis scores even less than the Jaguars, at league-worst 11.5 ppg, while the Pack racks up a league-leading 34.6 ppg. Aaron Rodgers & Co. 7-1 ATS last eight at Lambeau.

Total (47.5): Over 5-1 last six Rams-Packers affairs, and total has gone high in seven of Green Bay’s last eight at home. Still, under 7-1 in St. Louis’ last eight vs. winning teams.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins

Why Eagles cover: Absolutely desperate for win after four consecutive SU and ATS losses, dropping to 1-4 in both categories this season. If Super Bowl pick of many expects to make run, it needs to start here. Road team has cashed four straight in this rivalry.

Why Redskins cover: Well-rested coming off bye week and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in last eight starts overall. Philly has already committed league-worst 15 turnovers and has minus-10 turnover differential.

Total (47.5): Over 16-5 in Eagles’ last 21 on highway, but under has been play in five of last six for Redskins.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Why Colts cover: QB Curtis Painter has proven he can lead team to points the past couple weeks. And Bengals don’t handle favorite’s role well, with 6-21 ATS mark last 27 as chalk.

Why Bengals cover: Absence of Colts superstar QB Peyton Manning magnified more and more each week, with Indy still winless. Cincy on ATS upswings of 7-1 overall and 7-0 inside AFC.

Total (40.5): Both these teams have played to over lately, with total going high in four straight overall for Indy, seven of eight on highway for Colts and four of five overall for Cincy.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4)

Why 49ers cover: They haven’t done bettors wrong yet, going 4-0-1 ATS this season. And QB Alex Smith looks like he might finally be getting it, six years into his career. He’s got a 7-1 TD-to-INT differential so far this season.

Why Lions cover: Alex Smith won’t be as effective when he’s getting tossed around by dominant Detroit defensive line all afternoon. Lions on fire, with nine consecutive SU wins and 9-0-1 ATS streak.

Total (46.5): These two teams are among league’s best in scoring, with Detroit fourth at 31.8 ppg and San Fran seventh at 28.4. Total went high in nine of Lions’ last 12 at home, and over 6-1 in Niners’ last seven overall.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Why Panthers cover: Cam Newton & Co. not winning games (1-4 SU), but they are paying off at betting window (4-1 ATS).

Why Falcons cover: Can’t afford to dump two in row at home, coming off SU and ATS setback to Super Bowl champion Packers. And numbers in this rivalry point to Atlanta, which is 10-3-2 ATS in last 15 home tilts with Carolina.

Total (50.5): Over on runs of 11-4-2 overall for Atlanta and 8-1-2 with Carolina a road pup.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Why Texans cover: That’s a lot of points to be getting for offense featuring QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster – even if stud wideout Andre Johnson isn’t available.

Why Ravens cover: When they win, they win big. In their four victories this year, average margin a whopping 22.3 points. And Texans without star LB Mario Williams for rest of year. Houston 1-5 ATS last six as road ‘dog.

Total (45): Total has gone high five straight for Baltimore and five straight with Houston as a road pup.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Why Browns cover: Oakland not comfortable as home chalk, going 2-12 ATS last 14 in that role.

Why Raiders cover: Riding emotion for first home game since death of owner Al Davis, and coming off road upset of Texans just a day after Davis’ passing. Oakland 5-1 ATS last six; Cleveland 1-6-1 ATS last eight.

Total (44.5): Raiders cleared total in five of last six at home.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-7)

Why Cowboys cover: Coming off bye week, so should be rested and focused for one of Week 6’s marquee games. Dallas thriving as underdog, cashing six straight times in that spot.

Why Patriots cover: At 4-1 SU and ATS this season, all four wins have come by minimum of nine points, with three double-digit victories. And Bill Belichick’s troops have faced four straight stout foes – Chargers, Bills, Raiders and Jets – so they are battle-tested.

Total (55): That’s a big number, but high-octane Pats offense always seems up to scoring boatload of points. Over 20-6 in New England’s last 26 overall and 17-4 in Patriots’ last 21 laying points. Over has also been play in seven of Pokes’ last eight roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees-led offense has no trouble scoring, racking up 31.4 ppg (fifth). On flip side, Bucs netting just 17.4 ppg (27th). Plus, road team in this NFC South rivalry has beaten number in 13 of last 16 clashes.

Why Buccaneers cover: New Orleans not at its best within division (4-10 ATS last 14) nor on road (2-6 ATS last eight).

Total (49.5): Under has hit five straight times in this rivalry.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Why Vikings cover: Got their first win last week, finally realizing that RB Adrian Peterson (122 yards, 3 TDs) is a horse, and they need to ride him. In fact, Peterson has averaged 112 yards (5.0 ypc) in seven contests vs. Chicago. Bears have dropped four straight ATS.

Why Bears cover: Vikings are on many ATS streaks, and none of them good, including 4-10 in roadies, 2-9-1 catching points and 1-7 in Chicago.

Total (41.5): Under has cashed in Vikes’ last six road contests.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: Miami has pulled off SU and ATS victories in last three road games against Jets, all from underdog role. Coming off bye week and 0-4 start, Fish should be hungry for win, or short of that, a spread-cover. Over-hyped New York just 1-5 ATS last six games.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops have lost three straight by average of 12 ppg. That should have them desperate to stop looking like awful team and more like one that reached last two AFC title games. Miami hasn’t covered since last season, going 0-6-1 ATS in past seven starts.

Total (43.5): Miami on 8-2 under run on road, but over for Jets on surges of 22-7 overall and 7-1 inside AFC East.

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**Udog** · 10-13-2011, 10:16 PM

NFL

Week 6

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NFL Total Bias: Week 6 over/under picks
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If you’re an NFL total bettor, chances are you’re in one of two camps right now.

You’ll recognize the first group as the guys who making it rain Sunday nights, chucking wads of cash at strippers, valets and limo drivers - think the wild bender The Other Guys went on.

Those guys have been drilling the over with their NFL bets.

I’m in the other camp. We’re the guys sitting alone by ourselves nursing a single Bud Light in a dimly lit room, heads buried in NFL box scores wondering what might have been.

You see, the opportunity to unload on over bets has been there. Through five weeks the over has cashed in on better than 63 percent of all games and I’m still sitting around .500 with this column’s picks.

So what’s the problem?

As a long time football bettor, I’ve come to expect a regression back to the mean. Trends come and go, hot streaks run cold, and in the end everything usually evens out.

So last week (and the week before, but who’s counting at this point?) I stared down the lines and couldn’t help but think that this over run had to be on its way out. It was Week 5 after all, a week after things usually started to make a bit of sense in the NFL.

But at this point, it’s perfectly clear that this year is different. It’s not just Tom Brady or Drew Brees lighting up defenses, it’s everybody. Game officials aren’t picking one play a game to make a statement about protecting offensive players, they’re doing it on every play.

Our main man Larry Hartstein had some great stuff talking about this issue earlier this week in his NFL Spread Sheet.

If you’ve haven’t checked it out, do yourself a favor and give it a read before you make this week’s wagers.

In the meantime, I’m jumping all in on this over trend before snow, sleet and hail start messing with our total bets.

I just hope I didn’t miss last call.

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3, 50)

Turns out that the only real thing I didn’t like about the Bills (Chan Gailey) has turned this club into an offensive powerhouse.

The Bills average nearly 140 rushing yards per game and then as soon as you drop down to stop the run, Ryan Fitzpatrick lays a 40-yard bomb on you.
Buffalo will be without No. 2 wide receiver Donald Jones (high-ankle sprain) and that could present a challenge for Gailey. Jones, who is the club’s third wideout to hit the shelf, might not be the best receiver on the club, but he did stretch the field with his speed.

Somehow, the Giants are putting up some points too. They’ve been good for about 30 points per contest after Week 1’s loss to Washington and you can pretty much pencil Eli in for a pick-six every Sunday at this point.

Pick: Over

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4, 46)

Last week the Detroit Lions’ Monday Night win was a lot closer to playing over the total than it seemed. Even though the Bears couldn’t do anything other than dump five-yard screens to Matt Forte, they came about 1 ½ yards away from scoring on their final possession. That major would have brought the score within a field goal of the 47-point total.

That’s pretty crazy considering how inept Chicago’s offense was.

I’m expecting more from the 49ers’ offense and Detroit’s attack in this one. Alex Smith has led the 49ers to points in each of the club’s 12 trips to the red zone (six touchdowns and six field goals) and they’ll benefit from seeing what happened to Chicago in Detroit last week.

Pick: Over

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 50.5)

You have to love Cam Newton’s youthful exuberance. The rookie is the first player to ever have five rushing and five passing touchdowns in his first five games, yet he’s still sweating the club’s 1-4 straight up record.

After dropping a 30-27 decision to the Saints last week, which helped Panthers bettors to improve to 4-1 against the spread, Newton hung his head and told reporters “there’s a reason we keep losing. And I want to know the reason.” That’s the difference with this Panthers team this season – with Cam, they believe.

Newton should have a field day against Atlanta’s struggling pass defense and Matt Ryan will step up at home even though rookie wideout Julio Jones has been ruled out. Roddy White’s in for some nice numbers.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 8-7

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**Udog** · 10-15-2011, 10:43 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 6 lines moves

One third of the schedule is nearly gone, and football bettors have a pretty good idea of what teams are made of heading into Sunday. That’s kept the NFL lines on moves this week. Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, took some time to talk about the biggest adjustments to the odds.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -1, Move: +3

Despite their constant underachieving, the Eagles are still drawing a ton of action. Philadelphia has moved from a 1-point pup to a 3-point fave this week, and more money is expected to come in on the Eagles on Sunday.

“It’s hard to believe that they’re still drawing action,” Roods says of Philadelphia. “Especially against teams like the 'Skins and the Bills. We’re going to need Washington like we needed Buffalo last week.”

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions – Open: -5.5, Move: -4

In a surprising move, most of the action has come in on the Niners. Rood says a lot of parlays are tied to Detroit and that most of the Sunday money will be on the 5-0 Lions, but sharps have taken to San Francisco.

“The no-nonsense Niners take care of the football, and they finally have Alex Smith playing well. It’s like Utah Utes' Alex Smith out there again,” says Rood.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders – Open: -7, Move: -5.5, Move: -6

It’s tough to gauge how the Raiders will do after such an emotional win last week. Will the passing of Al Davis continue to lift Oakland or will the team suffer a letdown after the Week 5 thriller over Houston?

“In my opinion, I’d be taking the points in this game,” says Rood. “Cleveland is off the bye week and Peyton Hillis is going to be back at full strength. At least you know what you’re going to get from these two teams.”

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -6, Move: -9

After a bit of Texans money, Rood says the books has taken nothing but action on the Ravens – SU and parlay wagers. Houston is still without WR Andre Johnson, who Rood says is worth about 2.5 points to the spread.

“It’s safe to say Baltimore is the most feared defense in the league,” he says. “Pittsburgh is banged up and getting older, but Baltimore just has the mental edge before you get on the field.”

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – Open: -3, Move -1

Some books are still sitting with Chicago -3 but have been piling on the juice, not wanting to get off the key number. However, Rood says he will only stay at a field goal for so long and expects this Sunday Night Football matchup to close around -2.5.

“We could go back up with a lot of Bears money coming in Sunday,” he says. “They’re at home, which should help that offensive line with the communication on the line of scrimmage. And of course, it’s the Vikings, so….”

**Udog** · 10-15-2011, 10:46 PM

NFL

Week 6

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NFL betting weather report: Week 6
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How will weather impact your NFL bets? Check out the Week 6 weather report:

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 40.5)

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium is calling for winds, blowing SW from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 15 mph Sunday.

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-14, 47)

Winds at Lambeau Field will reach speeds of up to 15 mph, blowing west from sideline to sideline. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s with a 10 percent chance of showers.

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3. 50)

The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for winds, blowing west, at speeds of up to 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 60s with a 19 percent chance of rain.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 40)

Things could be very sloppy at Heinz Field Sunday. Not only is rain in the forecast for Pittsburgh, but the Pitt Panthers played at Heinz Field Saturday, crewing up what is well known as the worst field in the NFL. Showers are expected to start in the second half along with winds of speeds up to 13 mph, blowing SW from corner to corner.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6, 55.5)

Winds are expected to blow WSW, from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 13 mph in the first half of this Sunday showdown. Temperatures at Gillette Stadium will dip into the high 50s.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

The Windy City will throw a medium breeze at Soldier Field Sunday, with winds of up to 11 mph expected to pick up in the second half. Temperatures will drop into the low 50s for this NFC North primetime matchup.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7, 42.5)

There’s a 12 percent chance of showers for this Monday night matchup, with rain expected to start later on the in evening. The temperature will drop in the mid 50s by halftime.

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**Udog** · 10-15-2011, 10:49 PM

NFL

Week 6

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Sunday Night Football: Vikings at Bears
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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

THE STORY: The Chicago Bears can uncheck one of their primary goals this season. With the only two undefeated teams in the NFL sitting in their division, the Bears can pretty much abandon their hopes of repeating as NFC North champs. And with their margin of error for making the playoffs starting to shrink, Chicago will be looking to get back to the .500 mark when division bottom feeder Minnesota and Donovan McNabb pay a visit to Soldier Field on Sunday night. Chicago has won three straight over the Vikings, including a 40-14 beating in Minnesota last December.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: Chicago opened as a 3-point favorite and has been bet down to -1. The total opened at 42.5 points and has dropped to 41.5.

WEATHER: The forecast for Chicago is calling for winds, blowing west from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 12 mph Sunday night. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s and there is a 35 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-4): Minnesota finally got in the win column last week, getting 122 yards and three touchdowns from running back Adrian Peterson in a 34-10 drubbing of Arizona. After blowing double-digit halftime leads in their first three losses, the Vikings didn’t leave anything to chance by bolting to a 28-0 first-quarter lead. Despite the rout, McNabb continued to struggled, throwing for only 169 yards on 10-of-21 passing. Peterson has rushed for 11 touchdowns and 784 yards in seven games against the Bears, but was limited to 51 yards last season. WR Percy Harvin sat out practice Thursday due to sore ribs.

ABOUT THE BEARS (2-3): Chicago was torched by a pair of big play in last week’s loss at Detroit, surrendering a 73-yard scoring pass and 88-yard TD run – the second-longest ever against the Bears. That might lead to the benching of safeties Chris Harris and Brandon Meriweather in favor of Major Harris and Chris Conte. Chicago’s offensive line, which committed nine false-start penalties last week, could be dancing again with NFL sack leader Jared Allen (8.5) bearing down on QB Jay Cutler. Cutler has shredded the Vikings for 10 TDs in his last three matchups. RB Matt Forte has back-to-back 100-yard games and leads the league with 785 yards from scrimmage.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Last week, Peterson became only the fifth player since 1970 to rush for three touchdowns in the first quarter.

2. Cutler has been sacked 18 times and is on pace to surpass last season’s NFL-high 52.

3. McNabb is 5-1 in six games at Soldier Field, but he is averaging only 169.8 passing yards per game, second-lowest in the league to Jacksonville rookie Blaine Gabbert.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
* Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago.

PREDICTION: Bears 23, Vikings 17. Cutler continues his success against the Vikings and Robbie Gould’s leg is the difference.

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**Udog** · 10-17-2011, 08:08 AM

NFL

Monday, October 17

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Dolphins at Jets: What bettors need to know
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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6.5, 42.5)

THE STORY: Mired in a three-game losing streak that has somewhat muted bombastic coach Rex Ryan, the New York Jets finally return home to take on the winless Miami Dolphins on Monday night. On paper, a visit by their AFC East Division rival appears to be exactly what the Jets need to snap out of their funk. Only one problem: Miami has won its last three visits to East Rutherford and has beaten New York in four of the last five meetings. Coming off a bye week, the Dolphins will play their first game without QB Chad Henne, who is done for the season with a separated shoulder.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (0-4): With Matt Moore getting the start in place of Henne, Miami will be hoping rookie RB Daniel Thomas is ready to go after missing two games with hamstring injuries. Moore threw for 167 yards and an interception after replacing Henne in San Diego. He has 16 TDs and 18 picks in 23 games. Thomas has rushed for 202 yards in the two games he has played and could play a vital role against New York’s soft run defense. WR Brandon Marshall, who has a quiet 22 receptions on the season, has vowed to play like a “monster” Monday night.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-3): Veteran WR Derrick Mason was traded to Houston this week following critical remarks of the team’s offense, but New York’s biggest problems have been on the other side of the ball. The Jets have allowed at least 30 points in three straight games and were helpless to stop the run against Oakland and New England. With QB Mark Sanchez and the passing game struggling, Ryan’s promise of a ground-and-pound attack led to a season-high 83 yards and a TD by RB Shonn Greene in last week’s 30-21 loss at New England. WR Santonio Holmes has eight catches during the three-game skid.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami is tied for the second-most wins (40) on Monday Night Football, but the Jets are 4-0 at home against the Dolphins in such matchups.

2. New York has not dropped four straight games since 2007, which was the last season the Dolphins started 0-5.

3. “Everything stinks when you lose. The food tastes terrible, beer's warm, everything. It's rotten, when you lose it's absolutely rotten. But there's one way to fix it and that's to win, and when you win, everything is great. So that's what we're planning on doing.” – Ryan on his approach to Monday’s game.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The line opened with the Jets giving 7.5 points but it’s been bet down to 6.5 at most shops. That might not seem like a big move, but it takes a lot of action to move a line a full point around the touchdown mark.

Not much going on with the total. The line opened as low as 41.5 and is not sitting at 42.5 at most sportsbooks.

TRENDS:

The Dolphins are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games overall, but 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with losing records but 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

The over is 22-7 in the Jets’ last 29 games overall.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Dolphins 13. Buoyed by a return to its home stadium, New York harasses Moore into multiple turnovers and breezes to an easy victory.

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